Friday, May 19, 2006

Links of the Weekend for 5/19-20/06

by Intern Sharkey

Ahoy! It’s time for another edition of the weekend links, rocking out to Broken Boy Soldiers.


  • Of course, the big news from the last few days was Kyle Lohse’s demotion. He has accepted his demotion; the Mets are a possible (likely?) trade destination. Lohse still has a glimmer of value, and the Mets are checking their watches for the end of Lima Time. It’s doubtful the Twins will be overly picky with the returns. Also in that article: the Tony Batista Experience may be coming to an end sooner than later.


  • As Steven Colbert would say, “It’s more like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg!”


  • Seth has all the answers. Andy Wink has a few ideas of his own.


  • Boof Bonsor, the third piece of the Pierzynski deal, will start on Sunday. Jesse of Twinkie Town gets you up to speed on the man here.


  • -The other two pieces of the AJ trade pitched well yesterday, breaking the losing streak. Option K racked up another 5 strikeouts in five innings. He only allowed two hits, but his control was spotty with three walks and multiple bounced balls. I noticed Mauer calling a lot of 3-ball change-ups; I wonder if it will take a few starts for Liriano and Chairman Mau(er) to get a feel for each other. Batista looks to be making a mad scramble to hang onto his job.

  • Looking ahead to 2007’s rotation of Santana/Liriano/Baker/Bonsor/???, the role of “???” could be played by Matt Garza, last year’s first round pick who made his AAA debut the other day. It was, as they say, a decent start. I caught an interview with Paul Molitor Friday afternoon on KFAN, and he mentioned that Garza could get a possible cup of coffee after the rosters expand in September. Drew Ely has more here.


  • Former Not-So-Little Leaguer Danny Almonte may not be all grown up, but he’s sure trying.


  • As you may have heard, outdoor baseball is coming for the 2010 season. Just awesome. As always, Shane is your go-to man for the stadia; by the time you read this, chances are the bill will be on the Governor’s desk.


  • And finally, I present the least classy thing I have ever seen.


Peace out kids; see you next week.

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Links of the Day for 5/19/06

by Intern Pseudofool

The Twins played today. Ugg.

This blog is a great example of the rippling affects that trading AJ Pierzynski to the Giants. Well, Boof Bonsor has finally arrived. And Lohse well he was sent down. The Twins probably botched their handling of Lohse, and for Lohse, well, it’s not good. But a guy named “Boof” just has to succeed, right?

Bat girl’s take on Lohse going to AAA deserves it’s own link.

Mainstream Power Rankings: Espn.com has us at 20th, Sportsline.com has us at 21st, Foxsports has us at 22nd, and Sportsillustrated.com has at 21st, for an average of 21 points, which is three touchdowns in football.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Links of the Day for 5/17/06

by Intern Snarky

This just in... Kyle is out, Boof is in. In the pre-season, there was some speculation that Lohse could have a breakout year much likeJohn Garland had in '05. Unfortunately, the '06 Lohse is pitching likethe '06 Garland. For the time being, we'll have Bonser and Liriano inthe starting rotation and Nathan as the closer. Just how good is thatPerzynski trade looking these days?

And there was much rejoicing... sort of. Twinkie Town presents Kyle's defense, or the lack thereof.

The good news in today's Twins' notes - Liriano will be starting on Friday. The bad news- so will Castro. On a side note, Gardenhire has penciled three rookies into the starting rotation. I wonder if he's feeling okay.

In other news... Jim Caple and Kurt Snibbe of Espn.com have inside information that might sway the stadium debate.

Links of the Day for 5/17/06

By Intern Jimmy

Smile, It’s Johan’s Turn: It’s always a good day when #57 takes the mound. The hottest pitcher in baseball should rectify this latest 3 game skid (editors note: knock, knock). Santana’s last 4 starts have produced 4 wins, 40 K’s, 22 hits, 3 BB’s, and 7 earned runs in 29 innings. Looks like he’s settling into his mid-season groove a little earlier than normal. No complaints here.

At Long Last: Joy, rapture and an impatient sigh of “It’s about time” as Francisco Liriano steps out of the shadows to make his long anticipated start on Friday. I’ll now refrain from more unnecessary frothing at the mouth until after Friday’s performance.

Deja Vu: Like a teenager breaking curfew a week after his grounding was lifted, Kyle Lohse did little to help his cause Tuesday night. Lasting less than 3 innings, Lohse checked back into the pitiful pitching ward with his relapse, which begs the question- could the Twins have their second demotion of the week?

Milestone Mayhem: No, this is not another platform to denounce every meaningless at-bat as Babe Ruth’s home run mark is challenged by a fraud. (Did my inner monologue just write that?) Better, this great feature allows you to track the upcoming meaningful milestones for certain Twins players. Torii Hunter closes in on career hit 1,000 while Shannon Stewart and Rondell White chase career hit 1,500. Based on their starts, Stewart appeared to be in more of a hurry to reach the milestone. But lo and behold, with his RBI single last night, White finds himself in the midst of an 11-game hitting streak in which his batting average jumped .055 points. Pushing past the Mendoza line is Rondell’s next milestone.

Sacrificing the Sacrifice: The white whale of Web Gems – the triple play – rose to the surface on Sunday with a bunt attempt gone awry, drowning the promising inning and, effectively, the game. The fact that Luis Castillo was the culprit made the bunt blunder all the more egregious. The second baseman has converted 4 of the team’s total of 6 sacrifice hits on the season. A main ingredient to the small ball formula, the sac-less Twins are mired near the bottom of the Majors (24th in fact) when it comes to advancing runners. This got me thinking, how much or little have the Twins utilized the sacrifice hit (not the sac fly) in the last 5 years as they’ve risen to the top of the AL Central? For comparison’s sake, I looked at the Twins and White Sox team stats for sacrifice hits and runs, figuring runs scored is a natural by-product of placing more runners in scoring position.

Twins (SH/Runs) White Sox (SH/Runs)
2005 42/688 53/741
2004 46/780 58/865
2003 42/801 43/791
2002 34/768 48/856
2001 25/771 63/798

Plenty of theories and (skewed) conclusions can be made from this, but it’s interesting that the White Sox, a team that certainly has relied more on the long ball, uses the sac hit more consistently than the Twins. Also of note is the relative proximity in runs scored in 2001 despite the huge difference in sacrifice totals.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

First Overall

by Will Young

With the first pick in the draft, the Calvin Griffith selects….a mess.

Twins fans are treated nightly to watching Joe Mauer. He’s young, talented and was destined for greatness ever since his selection as the first overall pick in 2001’s amateur draft. But the Twins haven’t always had such luck with the first overall pick.

After finishing with a 60-102 record in 1982, the Minnesota Twins “earned” the first choice in the 1983 June Amateur Draft. Unfortunately, Farm Director George Brophy lamented that the draft did not contain a clear top player and the overall talent level was below-average. The Twins’ brain trust compiled a list of their top six players, but pitcher Tim Belcher, from tiny Mount Vernon Nazarene College in Ohio, seemed to be the likely selection. Both Brophy and Owner Calvin Griffith agreed that they would choose a player regardless of his money demands. Of course, the notoriously frugal Griffith added that he preferred to not spend more than $100,000 to sign the pick.

The day before the draft, Griffith and the Twins had named Belcher their top target with shortstop Jeff Kunkel their alternate. Storm clouds were already gathering when Belcher said, “I’m just a junior. If they [the Twins] draft me, I could just go back to college for senior year.” As the draft loomed, the team’s first negotiating tactic was made clear: the Twins would try to convince Belcher to sign for less money than he could receive from other teams because he would be moving to the majors more quickly with the Twins.

On June 6, the Twins officially selected Belcher who promptly told the public all the right things. “I want to sign right now and get on with my baseball career,” Belcher explained. When asked about a signing bonus, Belcher added, “I’m thinking in terms of six-figures.” Twins fans who may have been nervous about selecting a pitcher from such a small school were likely relieved to hear that Baseball America’s scouting report named Belcher “the only pitcher in the draft who can really throw the ball by a hitter”.

During the next week, neither party made an effort to start serious negotiations. Belcher still did not expect to have any trouble reaching an agreement, but was confused about the delayed offer from the Twins. Brophy explained that the Twins were merely waiting for Belcher to finish arranging his legal counsel. On June 10, the Twins first began speaking with Belcher’s legal adviser, a young Chicago attorney by the name of Scott Boras. At this point, Boras was just establishing himself as a baseball agent, and was not the fearful figure he evolved into over the span of twenty years.

A week after the draft, the two parties were still offering compliments. Floyd Baker, the Twins’ scout who recommended Belcher, told Sid Hartman that Belcher was the “best pitcher I have seen in the last ten years”. Griffith announced that he was ready to pay Belcher a bonus in the area of $100,000. However, the Twins would not start negotiations with Belcher because, as Brophy explained, “We cannot get confirmation that [Scott] Boras is his agent.” Their interest in Boras’ exact arrangement with Belcher was made clear later as negotiations turned sour.

While the Twins kept publicly repeating their $100,000 offer, Belcher finally struck back. “The Twins knew what it would take to sign me before the draft,” Belcher said, “I told them I wouldn’t sign for under six-figures.” He then clarified his position when he added, “I don’t want to be the highest paid player ever picked first in the draft, but I want something between $125,000 and $160,000 – someplace in the middle.” In fact, Belcher further complained that the Twins had privately offered him just $90,000 despite having a pre-draft conversation to learn his expectations.

The front office portrayed Belcher as unfamiliar with the historic principles of the organization. Like, say, frugality. Brophy noted that Belcher had turned down more money than the Twins had ever offered another draft pick. Of course, he failed to mention that no other Twins draft pick had ever been selected first overall, and that inflation had steadily increased players’ salaries.

A month after the draft, the two sides were maintaining their initial demands. Belcher still wanted between $130,000 and $165,000 (notice the $5,000 increase in the high- and low-points of the range) while the Twins were offering just $80,000 in addition to $4,000 for him to finish his education. Belcher said that Baker, the scout, had promised an initial offer of $90,000 and they had not even fulfilled that promise. Anger began to seep into Belcher’s words as he complained, “They shouldn’t have drafted me if they didn’t want to pay what they knew I wanted to sign.”

Finally, after a month, the Twins blinked first. Both parties mutually confirmed that the Twins offer to Belcher had been increased to $110,000. Belcher still was not satisfied and said he would still wait for between $130,000 and $160,000. He also unfurled his greatest negotiating weapon – the imposition of a deadline. Belcher announced that he had begun making plans to return to college in case he did not sign within the next few days.

At the next meeting between Brophy and Boras, the Twins tried to turn the tables. They withdrew their $110,000 offer and tried to use Belcher’s deadline to their advantage. Boras told Sid Hartman that the Twins were not “going to make an offer until August 28 in order to give Belcher just three days to decide whether to accept before needing to go back to school.” Rather than blink, Boras warned the Twins that by waiting for the January draft, Belcher would have no trouble getting the money he was seeking. After all, the fourth pick from June, Eddie Williams of the Mets, had just signed for $155,000.

Next, the Twins attempted to squash Belcher’s threat of returning to school. George Brophy asserted that Belcher “may have made himself ineligible for the NCAA by hiring Boras”. Boras refuted this claim when he announced, “I am following NCAA rules as a legal adviser.” Calvin Griffith led the next attack when he announced, “I’m not going to give him big money to come down with a sore arm.” The Twins were grasping at straws to convince the public that Belcher was unreasonable. Sid Hartman pondered “One wonders why the Twins drafted him, if they weren’t going to sign him.”

As the September 1 deadline approached, both sides stood firm. Belcher maintained his desire to sign with the Twins, but was becoming more and more exasperated. Every other first round pick had signed and several had received much more than the $110,000 he was being offered. “If Griffith refuses to make an offer between $100,000 and $160,000, then we may have a stalemate,” he lamented.

Belcher postponed enrolling in classes and extended his deadline to September 5. At this point, another potential stumbling block appeared as the two parties began arguing over the method of any bonus payment – provided a bonus could be agree upon. The Twins wanted to split the bonus into thirds and offer the first third at the signing, another third in January, and the final third in November 1984. Belcher countered by asking for half upon signing and the other half early in 1984. Griffith, openly trying to sell the team at this point, was looking for any way to defer the costs to the next owner. Even Sid Hartman publicly criticized the team complaining, “It would be a serious public relations blunder if the Twins didn’t sign a player their scouts designated as the best available in the draft.”

In a last ditch effort, the Twins tried to drive Belcher away from Scott Boras. “If Belcher actually wants to sign, let him call me and tell me so. Otherwise, we just won’t sign him”, Griffith said. Belcher held his ground, continually referred the team to Boras, and refused to accept the Twins offer which steadily increased to $120,500. In a ceremonial gesture, Griffith cut the offer to $60,000 on September 15. Deciding that their situation was hopeless, the Twins proceeded to throw stones at Belcher from afar. They insinuated that his holdout was going to harm him financially because players in the January supplemental draft historically received smaller salaries than their June counterparts.

The Twins refusal to meet Belcher’s demands did not preclude at least five other teams from asking the Commissioner’s Office about the legality of trading for his rights. Seeing that other teams were salivating at the thought of picking Belcher in the January draft, Griffith attempted to prevent Belcher from entering it.

The Twins encouraged the Commissioner to investigate whether or not Belcher had begun taking fall classes. If he had, according to NCAA rules, Belcher would not be eligible to be drafted for another 120 days or well after the January date. Scott Boras vehemently denied that Belcher had taken a class. Furthermore, Boras maintained that since Mount Vernon Nazarene College was an NAIA school, he did not need to follow the NCAA rules. Sid Hartman cut to the heart of the story when he wrote, “Most Major League teams would fight to sign the number one pick in the country. The Twins, not wanting to spend the money, try to get off the hook by making him ineligible.” After some investigating, Belcher was allowed to enter the January 1984 draft, and the Twins were left empty-handed.

Postscript

Belcher was chosen by the New York Yankees in the January draft. He finished with a 146-140 record and an ERA just two percent better than the league average, but he also pitched for 14 years in the majors, and earned over $26 million. Scott Boras refined his negotiating skills and draft strategy until he perfected the technique with J.D. Drew. Less than a year after the negotiations, Calvin Griffith sold the Twins to Carl Pohlad, citing the rising costs of running a franchise as a reason to exit the sport. George Brophy admitted that fall that the Twins should have selected their other choice – University of Oklahoma pitcher Roger Hayward (whose entire major league career consisted of 78.2 innings and a 4-8 career record).

Finally, eighteen picks after Tim Belcher, the Boston Red Sox drafted Roger Clemens.

After growing up in Richfield, Will Young currently lives in Washington, DC where he a Master's Degree candidate in Sport Management at the George Washington University and blogs about the Twins at www.wyoung.net/twins.

The previous story is in the May issue of GameDay

Monday, May 15, 2006

Links of the Day for 5/16/06

by Intern Thomas

Once again, I get to provide the links of the day after a massive buzzkill of a weekend. It started so promisingly too, with a convincing victory over the White Sox on Saturday. And then, well, then we found out that maybe Liriano was breathing down the wrong starter’s neck. Gardenhire is finally calling on the Cisco Kid and his team leading 12.9 k’s per nine to take the mound at the beginning of a game.

  • Things might have been different on Sunday, however, if Gardenhire had pulled Silva before he imploded in the Fourth Inning. Frightwig wants to know what you think was going through Gardy’s head while Silva was letting the game get out of hand.


  • In case you did miss the game on Sunday, some members of the Twins, including Shannon Stewart chose to celebrate Mother’s Day by using pink bats, and all the players wore pink wristbands. The Hardball Times chose to celebrate in a different manner—they collected advice from mothers of baseball notables.


  • Finally, the Twins family has lost one of its original members, as Jim Lemon passed away on Sunday. He was an outfielder for the Senators when they moved to the Twin Cities in 1961, and played in Minnesota until he was traded away in 1963. Minnesota baseball fans missed his prime, however, as his last good season came in 1960.

Saturday, May 13, 2006

Links of the Weekend for 5/12-3/06

by Intern Sharkey

Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Links, brought to you by the end of my freshman year of college (it’s been a bit busy, so sorry for the rough-and-ready treatment). To the Linkage!

Three more with The Champs. Enjoy the weekend.

Friday, May 12, 2006

The Stadium Game

As the stadium bill is being reworked in a conference committee this weekend, I thought it might be a good idea to cover the long strange path a stadium bill travels. This is from the April issue of GameDay. To see it in it's entirety, just click on it. - TG









Thursday, May 11, 2006

A taste of this weekend's Dugout Splinters in GameDay...

What's Working
The White Sox won last year, plain and simple, because of their pitching. For all the raves about the White Sox offense, it was below average, ranking ninth in the American League. Not anymore. They’re in fourth place in the AL this year, thanks to a gamble they took on a 35-year-old with a bad back by the name of Jim Thome. Fourteen home runs later, we can safely say that was a pretty good gamble.

There is no way to portray the Thome trade as anything less than completely one-sided. The White Sox gave up a very good hitting center fielder in Aaron Rowand, but Rowand was going to start getting expensive. In addition, they received $22 million to help cover Thome’s salary, meaning that Thome is essentially costing the White Sox just $7 million per season over the next three years, which is about the same amount the Twins are paying Shannon Stewart.

White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to make that kind of deal because he was in the right place at the right time. New Phillies’ GM Pat Gillick was apparently desperate to get out from under Thome’s contract because of the performance of rookie Ryan Howard last year, who can only play first base. Thome’s no-trade clause in his contract gave him the freedom to veto any trade that wasn’t to a competitive team close to his home. The White Sox were the only interested team that matched those criteria. Plus, they happened to have an offensively skilled center fielder, which the Phillies have needed since Lenny Dykstra. Deal done.

What’s worse for Twins fans is the performance of the players that surround Thome in the order, each of whom are hitting about 50 points higher than last year. Tadahito Iguchi bats second and hit .278 last year. He’s hitting .323 so far this year. Paul Konerko, who bats cleanup, is batting .331 versus .283 last year. The next batter, Jermaine Dye, is hitting .309, 36 points higher that in 2005.

Had enough? Sorry, there’s more. Following Dye is AJ Pierzynski who is batting .330. Following him is Joe Crede, whose career batting average is .259. He’s hitting .319 this year. I can’t go on. No player should have that big an effect on his teammates, but if that’s a coincidence, it’s one miserable coincidence for Twins fans.

On the Hill

Monday: Freddy Garcia (5-1, 4.64 ERA)

  • 2005: 14-8, 228 IP, 146 K, 3.87 ERA

  • Garcia was the other White Sox pitcher who has been traded for Randy Johnson. He was the key prospect that Seattle acquired when they traded away Randy Johnson in 1998. They also acquired Carlos Guillen (who we just saw starting at shortstop with the Tigers) and John Halama (who is no longer in the majors).

  • In his last start he struggled early but gave up only one run over eight innings. He also didn’t walk a batter, which has been a problem for him most of the year.

  • Heckling Tip: Time for those Jeff Spicoli impressions. According to the Venezuelan daily newspaper Lider, Garcia tested positive for marijuana during the World Baseball Classic. Aloha, Mr. Hand.

Links of the Day for 5/12/06

by Intern Pseudofool


  • It’s a bit early to start the trade rumor machine going but a few blogs are discussing the possibility of Hunter and/or Stewart going to the Cards here, here, and even here. Though I’m sure some people still aren’t very keen on trading with St. Louis after giving them Tom Brunansky for Tom Herr.


  • King Kyle? I guess we won’t see Liriano this quickly after all.


  • Can we measure defense with as statistical model? The answer is: who knows. But nonetheless ubelmann takes a look at the Twins measurable defense and its absurdity.


  • Don’t forget to examine and analyze the minors on a regular basis! You can do so here and here. Also look for Roger’s updates on Sethspeaks.net (as well as Seth’s own observations) and Dianna’s updates in the minor league forums at DTFC. [editor's note: You can also find Roger's minor league news in GameDay] Don't you want to discuss whether Trevor Plouffe is better than Alexi Casilla? Or how good Doug Deeds and Josh Rabe can be? Matt Moses is hitting .330/.382/.530 with five homers, I know I like that. Batista eat your heart out.


  • Mainstream Power Rankings: Espn.com has them at 21st, Sportsline.com has them at 25th, Foxsports has them at 23rd, and Sportsillustrated.com has them also at 23rd, for a grand total of 91st place, which is really bad considering there are only 30 teams.

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Links of the Day for 5-10-06

By Intern Jimmy

Under The Microscope: No start in Kyle Lohse's Twins tenure carries as much ramification as today's turn on the mound. Lohse's rollercoaster act has worn razor thin with management and fans. No longer is youthful inexperience an acceptable excuse. Lohse's strong spring seemed to portend the coming of age for the 27-year old. Too bad the magic quickly disappeared as 4 of 6 starts have yielded 6 or more earned runs. Who could ever replace his spot in the rotation…

Help On The Way? The question has been asked ad nauseum since his major league call up- when will the grooming period end for the uber-talented Francisco Liriano? Closer than we all think? The club's kiddie-gloves treatment of Johan Santana reaped obvious benefits, which begs the question- is his second coming ready? With the season spiraling towards the Boundary Waters, the positives far outweigh the negatives of the youngster thrown into the mix. If the coaches feel the need to keep Liriano at a pitch count, so be it. The sooner he begins thinking and throwing like a starter, the better. There's no doubt Liriano is special, as Jim Souhan hyped about a month back. Hell, his 13.24 K/9 leads all American League pitchers. I can’t even fathom the prospect of mercilessly unleashing the dual lefty attack on successive nights. It’d be nice if the Twins realized exactly how good the cards are before folding their hand. If you’re dealt pocket aces, the smart bet is to play them.

Defense To The Rescue: Though it's hardly a surprise when it happens, Torii turned in another sterling Web gem Sunday (below the picture, click the video icon “Torii’s running catch”). Racing to cover more ground than usual, Hunter snared the ball backhanded on the run coming out of nowhere. The defensive play of the day in baseball left the commentators in disbelief and mouths agape everywhere. It’s booster shots like this from their de facto leader that the Twins need to raise the overall confidence and play with a sense of urgency as they climb back to respectability.

Injury Alert: Not that I like to revel in any player getting hurt, but this news prompted a faint smile to escape. With the Twins treading water to stay afloat in the Central, anything resembling a buoy to help earn a win, especially against this particular division rival, is reason enough to grab for it. As the offense stalls as frequently as any stick-shift car I drive, not having to face the league’s ERA leader in the upcoming 4 game tilt is welcome news. What if things snowball for the White Sox without the presence of their most reliable pitcher dating back to last year’s postseason run? What if the injury is worse since Contreras isn’t exactly a spry young man who bounces back from ailments? The potential for something like this to throw the White Sox clubhouse off-kilter and embark on a losing skid has me twirling my imaginary Rollie Fingers mustache.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Links of the Day for 5/9/06

by Intern Thomas


  • In case you haven’t noticed, the left side of the infield has come back to earth in terms of generating offense. Are there other options available? (Yeah, I know, everyone knows the answer to this question). Aaron Gleeman has a look at how the Twins’ hitting prospects are doing down on the Farm. And while Bartlett and Kubel aren’t exactly setting AAA on fire, they’re still doing pretty well, and with Cuddyer handling the bat well, it seems that there are better options than the Dictator Duo. Mike Kramer over at Twins Killings seems to think that the signing of Batista and Castro aren’t the only reasons to be unhappy with Terry Ryan.


  • Of course, it’s a lot harder to find fault with Ryan when it comes to finding stud pitchers. Santana is already past his usual slow start (though he had no chance against the combined powers of DicknBert on Sunday), posting a 2.48 ERA in his last four starts. Of course, if Bert hadn’t said anything about the shutout after Pudge broke up the no hitter, it would have only been 1.86.


  • It seems that Lohse is pitching for his spot in the rotation on Wednesday. Is it wrong to be rooting for another poor start from the Soul Patch Kid? Also, it seems Gardenhire is the reason Liriano is being used in the setup role, rather than starting in AAA. It seems to me that Ryan should take a page out of Billy Beane’s book and stop letting his manager make decisions that the GM should be making.


  • Finally, the Greet Machine remains the place to get all of your stadium bill news. Things are looking good in the Senate after a poll of Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson’s constituency showed that 71% were in favor of the bill. And Governor Pawlenty has decided to sign the bill if it passes the legislature. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for the vote, which should be sometime this week.

Sunday, May 07, 2006

How Much for the Litte Boy?

by Twins Geek

The following is in this month's issue of GameDay, the independent program sold outside of the Metrodome.




What’s striking is the confidence.

Sure, there’s the patience. And the quick wrists. Everyone talks about the sweet swing, as if most of us could judge such a thing. But we know confidence. You could plunk some tribal pygmy from the Amazon in the front row of the Metrodome and he’d watch one at-bat and tell you that this kid was special compared to the others.

The quiet confidence. Especially in one so young. It lifts us up. At least, until - in typical Minnesotan self-deprecating fashion - we wonder how much longer we’ll get to enjoy it.

Welcome to the modern business of baseball, where players aren’t glossy trading cards – they’re contracts. Where small market teams need to evaluate the long-term future of a player before they’ve really been tested. And where the fairy tale about a kid playing for his hometown team may not end in “happily ever after”.

It seems like we just met Joe Mauer. Nevertheless, due to the economics of the game, the sports market that Mauer and his team share, and one crummy knee injury, an important opportunity has already passed. And Mauer’s economic value to a team that counts its pennies is decreasing fast.

Serfdom

Mauer’s knee injury in 2004 robbed the Twins of more than just his bat in the lineup. It robbed them of one-third of Mauer’s “serf” years. For roughly the first three years of a major league player’s career, their team can pay him whatever they want (above a minimum salary requirement.) If the player doesn’t accept what the team offers, the player has two choices – play for less or don’t play baseball.

This is when a team recoups the investment it makes in its farm system. It’s completely speculative what Mauer might have made if he could have been a free agent just prior to his rookie year, but a multi-year, guaranteed contract that exceeded $5 million is nearly certain. It might have exceeded $10 million. Instead, the Twins paid him $300,000.

Of course, that year Mauer only had 107 at-bats because of one of the worst possible knee injuries. Oh, it wasn’t “worst possible” in terms of severity – Jason Kubel has that award sewn (stitched?) up. It was “worst possible” in that it was difficult to diagnose, and difficult to judge its progress. Perhaps that’s the reason that the Twins didn’t put him on the 60 day disabled list, which would have delayed his service time. Instead, he gained a year toward the three years of service he needs to get to arbitration.

Arbitration

Starting next year, Mauer will be eligible for arbitration for the next three years. This means that the Twins (if they want to retain him) must pay him a salary that is comparable to what a similar major leaguer makes. Finding a “similar major leaguer” can be tricky, but there are a couple of young players whose salaries could provide a baseline.

Victor Martinez, the talented young catcher for the Cleveland Indians, is a very comparable player who already has a contract. Martinez will make $3 million in his fourth year of service time (which like Mauer, would be in 2007), $4.25 million in his fifth year, and $5.7 million in his sixth year. Anything near that would be the best possible scenario for the Twins. Martinez is getting paid quite a bit below the “superstar” strata for the next three years.

Unfortunately for the Twins, Martinez signed that deal over a year ago, and some more recent deals by young studs are making that salary structure obsolete. Mark Texeira, who was drafted just a couple picks behind Mauer, signed a deal with Texas this offseason that pays him $6.4 million this year, his fourth service year. He’ll make $9 million in his fifth year. He’ll make more than that in his sixth year before he starts making really big money as a free agent.

Chairman Mauer looks like he’s in line for nearly a $3-4 million raise next year, and at least a couple million dollars raise per year after that. Pretty soon, he won’t be the bargain upon which a small market team needs to rely. Time to sign him up to a long-term deal, right?

A missed opportunity

Um, maybe, but don’t expect a big bargain, because that opportunity passed, if it was ever there. The last chance for a major league team to get a big markdown is the offseason following the player’s second full year. At that point, the player has toiled for two years in the majors, and will need to play solidly (and stay healthy) for one more year before they get that first million-dollar contract and gain a lifetime of financial security. For the Twins and for Mauer, that was last offseason.

That didn’t happen, though you can be relatively sure that it wasn’t for lack of interest by the Twins. They’ve recently sought and signed similar deals with Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon and Carlos Silva. It’s doubtful they just overlooked inking a similar deal with the face of their franchise for the rest of the decade.

It’s far more likely that there just wasn’t interest on Mauer’s side. After all, as the first overall pick in the draft, he’s not in the same situation as most ballplayers. His signing bonus was $5.15 million, which he secured by leveraging his football scholarship to Florida State. Neither Mauer nor his agent, the renowned Ron Shapiro, has demonstrated a lack of solid negotiating skills. That doesn’t mean a long term deal can’t happen. It just means it won’t be cheap.

It Is What It Is

The good news is that the Twins have a great young player who should only improve. He’s a fantastic bargain for this year, and a pretty solid bargain for next year. They also don’t need to sign a multi-year guaranteed contract. Since Mauer can’t become a free agent until after his sixth season, the Twins essentially have a four-year contract with him that contains an escalating pay scale that they can renew annually.

The bad news is that in 2008, Mauer’s salary is going to affect the level of players with which the Twins can surround him. Two years after that, he can go to the highest bidder, and there isn’t a lot the Twins are going to be able to do about it other than throw a lot of money his way.

The same dichotomy applies to Twins fans. The good news is they get to watch greatness. The bad news is that every step their favorite player takes forward is likely another step towards the door. So, enjoy it while you can. So good. So confident. So young. So rare.

So long?

Links of the Day for 5/8/06

Powered by Intern Sam


  • Johan Santana took a no-hit game into the 7th inning Sunday before allowing a seeing-eye grounder to Ivan Rodriguez, and it was fun to listen to Herb Carneal and John Gordon in the middle innings as they adhered strictly to the old superstition about never mentioning a no-hitter until it’s broken up, and nearly burst from the excitement. At one point, Carneal danced on the edge of cosmic acceptability when he said, “Two baserunners for the Tigers in the game…” [long pause here, even for Herb] “…a walk… and a hit batsman. Santana’s first pitch to Inge in there for a called strike…” Classic stuff, and it got Intern Sam thinking about superstitions, and ballplayers, and well, we’ve all got our favorites, right? (How about the shortstop who was terrified of the letter ‘x’? Or the Twins’ own Gene Mauch, who never washed his underwear after a win?) Here’s a great list of some of the strangest…


  • Some of the best writing and research on the Twins stadium shenanigans at the Capitol is happening on a blog authored by a Minnesota Senate staffer who says that today could be a very important day for the Twins bill.


  • Anyone watching a baseball game on TV over the last couple of years has probably heard some commentator or other griping about the lack of inside pitching in the modern game. Since the guy griping the loudest is usually the unbelievably pompous Joe Morgan, many fans might be tempted to assume that a lack of chin music isn’t an actual problem. After all, there are still plenty of great pitchers around, right? But the fact is, (and Intern Sam shudders to type these words,) Morgan is right, and this weekend, Gordon Wittenmeyer took a stab at explaining why…


  • We’re just going to assume that there isn’t actually a Twins farmhand named Josh Medwell. On the off chance that there actually is, we absolutely, positively, do not want to hear about it.


  • How tough is it to be a Royals fan? So tough that one 34-year-old fan is throwing in the towel in seriously public fashion. Dismayed by years of futile rooting, Chad Carroll started an eBay auction, offering “my loyalty to the Kansas City Royals (jersey included)” to the highest bidder, and promised the winner the privilege of picking another team for Carroll to support. A Yahoo!Sports columnist offered $198.50, and the Northern League’s Kansas City T-Bones took a run at Carroll’s loyalty as well, but in the end, it was a group of Chad’s buddies who pooled their bids to win the auction. Happy ending, right? Wrong. One of the teams under consideration as Chad’s new rooting interest is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Saturday, May 06, 2006

Link of the Weekend

by Intern Sharkey

It’s time for a grab-bag edition of the Weekend Links, powered by the new Pearl Jam album (although, for this column, maybe Loverboy is more appropriate).

  • Big series with the Tigers this weekend (four years ago who could have seen that coming?). Hopefully Jim Leyland keeps his pants on.


  • Among Leyland’s former players are Mike Redmond and Louis Castillo. No word on if Leyland’s pants superstition inspired another.


  • It’s hard to tell if Silva’s game on Thursday was due to a fix in his mechanics, or due to facing the Royals.


  • I think I know how to fix Kyle Lohse, too. Have him switch bodies.

  • About half way down this Baseball America chat, Matt Meyers compares Santana and Liriano to the Big Unit/Schilling Arizona combination that won a World Series. Of course, to win the World Series, it helps to be higher than fourth in your division.


  • I’m glad Nick M. is feeling optimistic.


  • Maybe old Carl is paying more for this new stadium than we thought.


  • Even the worst ballpark food isn’t this bad.

  • DIRRRRRT!


  • Hopefully SBG never gets this mad at Gardenhire.

  • The Mighty MJD brings you: If NBA Playoff Teams Were 80s Sitcoms! My favorite:

    Memphis Grizzlies: The Dom DeLuise Show
    Both were cancelled quickly, although you can’t deny that both were also helped out quite a bit by the beards on their stars.


  • On the topic of the NBA, I hope, if nothing else, that you’re all watching the Suns/Lakers series. Those 6 games (with game 7 tonight!), along with the insane Cleveland/Washington set (Damon Jones!), Chicago putting up a fight with Miami, Dirk solidifying his title as “Best Foreign Guy” over Pau… Awesome first round. Nope, no link there.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Links of the Day for 5/5/06

by Intern Pseudofool

Twins Chatter has surfaced again with a recent entry giving Ryan’s take on the stadium fiasco.

Jewscott attempts to answer the question on everyone’s mind “What’s wrong with the Twins anyway?” Apparently, everything.

Will Young has been posting regularly. He’s smart, articulate and provides you with neat graphics that don’t have to make sense or draw conclusions because, well, there just so neat. I especially like the May 2nd entry.

Here’s a discontinued Twins blog for posterity or nostalgia or to poke fun at failure or something.

Mainstream Power Rankings: Espn.com has us at 15th, Sportsline.com has us at 25th, Foxsports has us, also at 25th, and Sportsillustrated.com has at 24th, for a grand total of 89th place, which doesn’t seem real good to me, but you can’t put too much stock in those mainstream journalists anyways.

Flashback: At this time last year, the Twins were 16-11. And to think we’ve since added, Rondell White, Luis Castillo, and Tony Batista. Who new Joe Mays and Jacque Jones meant so much, er, wait they’re not playing very well either.

Links of the Day for 5/4/06

by Intern Snarky

Report card time
Seth hands out grades to the Twins for the month of April, and it ain't pretty. A lot of Twins got some explaining to do - Torii, Morneau, Rondell White, Lohse, Radke, Silva and Guerrier all are looking at probation. Perhaps Seth and Gardy should meet for some kind of conference.

Things could be worse
Over at Twins Without Spin, we are reminded that our present pitching woes are nothing compared to some terrible performances in the past. Perhaps the embodiment of suckiness was former Twin TerryFelton, who had an arm destined for a career at a correction facility (0-13 in '82). I'd take Lohse over him any day.

Not so fast
The Twins don't get credit for catching an escaped sex offender. Please, we'll take any win we can get at this point.*The middle finger* ... David over at the Contrarian Bias has throwntogether a couple of good analysis pieces today. First, he points his Contrarian finger at the middle of the Twins line-up. Then, he let's us know that our middle relievers aren't so hot either. In fact, the way we often judge our middle relievers is pretty meaningless.

Need a pick-me-up?
How about Delmon Young throwing a bat at an umpire? Way to show those scabs!

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Allard. Bared.

by Twins Geek

The following is also included in this week's Dugout Splinters, which is inserted in GameDay, the independent program sold outside of the Metrodome prior to Twins games.

In retrospect, the success of 2003 might have not been such a good thing for the Royals. Before 2003, they had already jettisoned most of their future when they traded away Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye, and it was assumed they would do the same with Carlos Beltran and Mike Sweeney. General Manager Allard Baird, who had overseen years of failure, was likely on his way out the door. It was just a matter of time before the Royals scrapped pretense and really started rebuilding.

Their fast start in 2003 changed everything. Their young pitching, considered by most to be a couple of years away from maturity, fueled that start. It saved Baird’s job, vested Sweeney’ contract, persuaded them to hold onto Beltran an extra year and gave hope to a fan base where there really wasn’t any. The next offseason was spent signing older veteran bats to support a young pitching staff that had already seen its best days. It also began a downhill slide that looks like it will be extended to its third year in 2006.

The biggest question for any rational outsider is how Allard Baird is still the GM of this team. He’s finishing his sixth year on the job, and they’ve averaged just 66 wins per year, even including the fluky 83 wins in 2003. His organization has been blessed with high draft picks and has traded away superstar players like Damon, Dye, and Beltran for prospects. Yet their minor league system is ranked 23rd overall by Baseball America and hasn’t been ranked above 19th over the last five years. I take that initial sentence back. The biggest question isn’t “How does he still have this job?” The question is “How can I convince him to join my fantasy league?”

Baird has his strengths – or rather strength – and it’s on display in this year’s Royals team. Baird has an exceptional knack for finding underachieving veteran hitters who still have some gas left in their tank. Nobody is lucky enough to grab Emil Brown, Matt Stairs, and Raul Ibanez (now a Mariner) and have them turn into productive offensive players. He found some other candidates this offseason with Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz and possibly Reggie Sanders. That’s a skill that would be invaluable to a contending organization with a solid core of young talent.

That organization is not the Royals, nor has it been for six years. Nor will it be as long as Baird is GM.

Links of the Day for 05/03/06

By Intern Jimmy

Shaking Things Up: April taught the Twins a couple hard lessons. For one, Twins pitchers certainly can’t rely on their reputation any longer. Time to prove on the mound what has been the hallmark of this franchise in the 21st century. Second, enough giving hitters obligatory batting spots based on career numbers. The only numbers that matter are the last month’s laughably low marks of production. A shuffling of spots below the top 3 was in order. Gardenhire finally had the gumption to drop the deplorable duo of T-Phat and RoWhite down in the lineup for the Mariners series, occupying the 7th and 8th spots respectively. A little humble pie to help them get their groove back. Gardy’s move paid dividends Tuesday as both knocked in and scored a run.

Baby Steps: The scheduling gods couldn’t have set this up better to help the Twins regain their confidence and reclaim their swagger. As the 2nd bottle of the season 6-pack is cracked, it’s hard to imagine May tasting as skunky as April. While the Pioneer Press stops short of saying a miracle will save the season, I say baby steps. Baby steps in beating Seattle with Santana returning to his dominant form. Baby steps to sweeping two from the Royally Bads. Baby steps to three redemptive opportunities against the Tigers this weekend to flush the memory of the Detroit debacle down the toilet. Baby steps to .500 baseball by winning 2 of 3 in Texas, where Rangers pitchers are equally adept as the Twins at inflated ERAs. Baby steps to finding exactly what the team is made of hosting the defending champs for a pivotal 4-game series. There’s no reason to worry about October just yet. Let’s see what kind of team May offers and go from there. But if you need proof, here are some recent examples of early season turnarounds.

The Offense Is There, You Just Have To Look For It: To cope with the Twins hitting woes, it’s encouraging to know that the minor leaguers are not falling prey to the majors’ plight. Six players are hitting .300 or better for Rochester (AAA). Catcher Chris Heintz leads the team at .370 a clip while eventual Twins call-ups Jason Kubel and Jason Bartlett are staying sharp until their services are needed on a full-time basis. At New Britain (AA), two 1st round picks are making good on their potential. Denard Span, 2002’s 20th overall pick, is hitting a cool .341 while scorching the base paths with his blazing speed. SS Matt Moses, 2003’s 21st overall pick, is hitting .324 with 3 HRs on the season. Beloit (A) boasts another team leading catcher, Caleb Moore, hitting .347 on the season- what is it with the Twins stockpiling smooth swinging catchers? Also, 1B Erik Lis is carrying a .306 average with 4 HR in 78 at-bats since being called up from rookie ball.

Monday, May 01, 2006

Links of the Day for 5/2/06

by Intern Thomas

It’s a new series, a new week and a new month., which means it’s time to forget about the Tigers and April and focus on the what’s coming up for the Twins as they attempt to climb back into the divisional race.

  • Next up is the Mariners, a team that, after winning their last two games to take their series in Baltimore, is forced to travel from one of the best parks in baseball (where I will be taking in a game on Tuesday) to the Metrodome. Lookout Landing has an open game thread for the game if you’re interested in discussing tonight’s matchup with some Mariner fans, or if you just want to defend “Circle Me” Bert’s broadcasting honor.


  • In the not so distant future, some Twin will be playing in the All Star game. If you want to try and stuff the ballot box for Mauer Power, Luis Castillo or Shannon Stewart, you can start voting online. If you want to try and get T-Phat or Castro to Pittsburgh this year, well, good luck.


  • If you’re more of a realist, or you just don’t want to get your hopes up again only to have them dashed one more time by the pitching juggernaut that is Runylevs Hernandez, Aaron Gleeman’s take on April is probably right up your alley. The comments aren’t exactly happy fun thoughts either, though sadly, they aren’t exactly out of line. After reading Gleeman, it’s worth it to take a peek over at Twins Without Spin, where he discusses what the Twins should do once they decide to cut their losses on the season.


  • And, as bad as it’s been, remember that it can always get worst. At least none of the Twins’ position prospects, despite getting jerked around by management, have taken it out on an unsuspecting umpire. And while T-Phat hasn’t done much with his bat, that’s a good thing if you consider that it means he’s avoided using it like A-Rod did in Baltimore.