Not a Joke

Carson: Judge, I'm doing what you asked. Hobbs is a joke, a nobody from nowhere.
Judge: Yes, that’s just what concerns me, Mr. Carson. It's about time we found out
just who he is and where he's from.

from The Natural

Bobby Keppel is not a joke, and certainly not a nobody from nowhere. We know who he is, and where he’s from.

And yes, that's just what concerns me.

I’ll admit, I thought it was a little bit of a joke the first time I saw him mentioned in the dailies here. It was earlier this season, when the Twins were talking about who to call up (again) to try and fix the depleted bullpen. I expected to see the name Sean Henn (and ultimately, that’s who was called up) but the newspaper also mentioned Keppel.

My face made a scrunchy look. Who? A quick look at the statistics in Rochester confirmed that there was no way Keppel would be called up. At that point he had as many walks as strikeouts. I didn’t doubt the journalists had heard his name from some folks within the organization, but I figured it had been out of context. Because unlike Hobbs, these guys aren’t nobodies from nowhere. That’s especially true for the 27-year-old Keppel, who has been pitching professionally for 10 years.

And his track record is pretty clear. Keppel’s numbers are slightly below-average almost across the board, and I mean that in relation to other minor leaguers. 4.53 ERA. 5.2 K/9. 10.0 H/9. 1.41 WHIP. Those are his numbers in the minors. Keppel hasn’t been considered much of a prospect since 2005. He’s bounced through new organizations in 2006, 2007 and 2008. And now 2009.

The difference seems to be that in this organization, he converted to a middle reliever. It also probably didn’t hurt that he had a minor league contract that dictated he be called up by July 1st or he could become a free agent. The intersection of that contract, his minor league success, and a desperate need in the Twins bullpen got him his callup.

And he was used like a lot of fringe callups are – as a long relief guy in a low-pressure situation. His first appearance was when he relieved Kevin Slowey last Saturday in a game the Twins were already losing. He did well enough, getting through four innings without giving up a run, though the three walks he allowed aren’t usually the way the manager Ron Gardenhire's heart.

And then things changed. Suddenly, last night, he’s pitching when the Twins are holding a one-run lead in the sixth inning. That’s a little strange, but not unheard of because it’s still early in the game. Then he was asked to hold that lead for the seventh inning. That’s more curious. And then he starts the eighth?

That’s a lot more responsibility than Gardenhire usually imparts to a recent callup, and it means one of three things:

1) They see something in Keppel they really like
2) They don’t have a lot of faith in other members of the bullpen or
3) All of the above.

I’m hoping it’s #3, but #2 is in play. Lately those middle innings would’ve gone to RA Dickey, but he looked suddenly hittable Monday night. Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier are working the eighth (though Mijares is on an awfully short leash), and Joe Nathan is obviously the ninth. That leaves Keppel and Henn, who has done everything in his power lately to ruin any confidence Gardy had.

So we can’t take tonight’s appearance as in indication that the Twins see something special. Gardenhire’s quotes after the game indicated as much, describing Keppel as a pitcher who has a sinker and is fine if he doesn’t overthrow the ball.

But he also indicated that is what the Twins have been looking for this season, and hoped that maybe they found it. Turns out, this year, a player like that has enormous value and you only need to look at this game's Win Probability scores to confirm it. Keppel’s 2.1 innings holding a one-run lead grade out as the most valuable pitching performance of the day. And anyone who watched that game would confirm it.

That's the glorious truth for Keppel: he doesn’t need to be Roy Hobbs to be valuable to this team this year. He just needs to be good enough to defy the odds. I’m rooting for him and hoping a different quote from The Natural comes to ming the rest of the year:

Pop: You’re going down. Roy: It took me a long time to get here. I won’t do it! (Pause.) I can’t. I came her to play ball.

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I know, I know. I owe you stuff on the road trip. I'll try and get that up soon. Just needed to talk some baseball again.

They Built It. We Came.

On our way to St. Louis this weekeend we detoured to the Field of
Dreams Movie Site otside of Dyersville, IA. I can't recommend it
highly enough. Admission is free, and the entire place is so
UNcommercialized that you can't quite believe it. It's like, um, well,
building a crazy ballpark in the middle of a cornfield. Here are some
pictures.

My view
before I choked on that damn hot dog.

Youre going to lose the farm Ray!

In June the corn is only 3 ft high. How do the ballplayers come out of it? Do they wait until the all-star break? Do they crawl out?

View from LF.

After having a catch. Make sure to bring a ball and glove. Playing on the field is encouraged.

On the way to KC and STL

Well, thank gawd I don't need to write about that game....

If I did, I'd probably talk about the same thing as I suspect everyone else, namely leaving Blackburn in to pitch the eighth inning. It was absolutely defensible, and with long-term goals in mind it was probably the right call.

It was also something that Gardy would not have done two years ago. And that's what I would like to explore. But I'm not gonna.

Instead, let's talk about the weekend. The Voice of Reason and I will be traveling this weekend and following the Twins, and if anyone would like to meet up, please let me know. Our tentative schedule:

Fri - Field of Dreams and Clinton, Iowa to watch the Snappers
Sat - Arrive in St. Louis Sat afternoon and play with other Twins fans.
Sun - Go to the game
Mon - Drive to KC, tailgate with Nick and go to the game
Tues - Negro League Baseball Museum and head home.

If you're going to be playing with other Twins fans, drop me a line either using the email link above or replying to my Twitter account, which I encourage you to follow this weekend.

Dissecting Liriano

As I write this, Francisco Liriano is in line for his third win of the year. But this shiny W isn't going to help anyone feel any better, because this game was every bit as maddening as any of his starts. Maybe more so.

The superfans will point out that Liriano only gave up three runs, and can correctly posit that "he made the pitches he needed to make." That's fair enough. But Shaq makes the free throws he needs to make, and that doesn't make him a great free throw shooter. And Liriano, right now, is not a great pitcher.

And, to be fair, it isn't clear that he has been since the surgery. That's the conclusion I can't help but draw after laboring to figure out what the difference is between Liriano this year and Liriano last year. The rest of this story will expand what I found, but I can save you about 400 words of reading effort by just cutting to the chase: I don't know.

Prior to yesterday's start, he had about the same number of innings he had last year. He also had about the same number of strikeouts and the same number of walks. It's spooky, really. He had given up 10% more hits, but what's really hurt him is he's given up so many more home runs.

So is he having trouble keeping the ball down in the zone? Having trouble inducing ground balls? Not any more than usual. Again, the ground ball/fly ball ratio from last year is almost identical.

Using MyInsideEdge.com, one can pull more granular data, but it doesn't provide a lot more insight. Bert spoke last night about how Liriano is having trouble locating his fastball, and that's undoubtedly true, but he had the same problem last year, and it's dropped something like 3% from last year to this year.

And in a number of metrics, he's better. He's quite a bit better at locating his off-speed pitches than he was last year. He's actually better at throwing strikes earlier in the count. He even gets higher grades for his efficiency, which is really hard to believe.

The only really big difference that I can latch onto is the quality of teams he's faced in the two years. Last year when Liriano returned to the majors I initially noted how many times he faced some bad teams, but looking back, that's almost all he faced.

Of his eleven August and September starts, ten of them were against teams that would end up finishing under .500. This year, he was the Opening Day starter, and thus lined up several times early this season against other Opening Day starters.

Subjectively, the only other thing I can offer, is that this year when things go bad, they seem to stay bad longer. Tonight's game was a good example. In the fourth inning he got two quick outs and then lost the strike zone. It was not gonna be found, or at least not with his fastball. I have almost no ability to really follow a pitchers mechanics, but you could see that his body on every throw was nothing like it had been the pitch before. Maybe when he loses it this year, it stays lost longer, and that leads to more runs.

Or maybe I just have no idea. Check that - obviously I have no idea. I'm open to your thoughts below.

Gomez' Gonads

This was written for the Minnesota Twins Radio Network's Extra Innings, and was broadcast last Sunday after the Twins game.

First impressions can count for a lot. Want proof? Answer this: Is Carlos Gomez a base-stealing threat?

You probably said yes, and so it might surprise you to find out that he has just six stolen bases this year, which is just two more than that speedster Michael Cuddyer. [Editors note: He now has seven.] Of course, we remember our first impression from last year, when he had six stolen bases by April 14th. So what’s happened?

Well, the opposing team is more careful, and unfortunately, so is Gomez, who has become exceptionally cautious about running on the first few pitches. But that’s often all a basestealer gets. Take Tuesday night. Gomez is on first, trying to get an insurance run when there are zero outs.

Pittsburgh tries to pick him off. Then he doesn’t run on the first pitch. Pitt throws to first again. He doesn’t run on the second pitch. Or the third. Or the fourth. After which Pitt throws to first twice. And he doesn’t go on the fifth pitch.

OK, by now two batters have been up and there are two outs. He’s gotta go now, right?

Nope. Stays on the sixth and seventh pitches. Another throw to first. Stays on the eighth, and finally steals second base on the ninth pitch. On a pitchout. That’s right, after being cautious on the first eight pitches, he ran EXACTLY when you shouldn’t have – and STILL stole the base.

And there’s a reason for that – it’s because he’s a guy with 60 stolen base speed - who is on pace for about 15 stolen bases this year. Teams are paying more attention to him – we get it. But it’s time for Go-Go to rediscover his gonads, and reaffirm our first impression.

Totally Off Topic - Something Fierce

Sorry Twins fans, but this is for my friends.

In the late 80s and very early 90s there was a great local power pop band named Something Fierce that we followed religiously, dancing some weeknights at the 400 Bar until we were all salty messes. They had a fairly sudden ending, when one of the two main song writers (Jeff Carpenter) was in a car accident that he's never fully recovered from.

Anyway, they somewhat reunited this weekend at my college's reunion weekend, and short of a Twins World Series victory, that night will probably be the highlight of 2009 for me. I danced so hard that my 42-year-old hamstrings started cramping up in my sleep this morning. I wouldn't change a thing.

Anyway, this is a clip of their last song "(I Miss You) Something Fierce". I'm afraid it's only the first verse, because I really wanted to get back to dancing. For those of you who remember them, I thought you might like to know that they can still really do a heck of a show (with Jeff present and watching fro the side). For those of you who don't, you can find more about them here and here.

I should also mention that they've selling a compilation of virtually everything they've every recorded, even if it wasn't sold before. You can get that here. I will be.

Guest Post: A Change of Heart

(With the Twins Geek out of commission for the time being, today's guest post is brought to you by Nick Nelson of Nick's Twins Blog.)

Our beloved Twins Geek is amidst a dreadfully busy week, but didn't want to let down his readers so he's asked me to come on and put together a guest post. I'm sure no one here is particularly interested in my batty opinions, but fortunately I've been in constant contact with Mr. Bonnes so I'll simply relay his thoughts to you as best I can.

The most important thing that Geek wanted me to communicate to his audience is that he has finally flipped on the Carlos Gomez issue. As many who read this blog are undoubtedly aware, John has long been a believer that Gomez belongs in the minor leagues right now, while Delmon Young should be starting for the Twins in left field with Denard Span taking over in center. As many may also be aware, I happen to fall on the opposite side of this issue and the two of us have argued the point to great lengths in various places, ranging from comments sections to podcasts to local bars. Now, these debates can at long last come to a rest.

It was apparently quite the epiphany for the Geek. "Good golly," he told me (that's how he talks), "I can't believe I haven't seen it until now." Finally coming to the realizations that Gomez's considerable defensive edge outweighs any negligible offensive upgrade that Young provides with his ability to single his way to a .260 batting average and that Gomez can learn to make adjustments at the plate as easily in the majors as he would in the minors, John called me to concede around 10 o'clock last evening.

I admire John's humility in this matter and have no doubt that upon his return, he will tell you all in his own words how far astray he was. And I'm certain that by no means will he be upset with me for abusing my guest posting privileges to put forth anything less than a genuine, straight-shooting article.

Welcome to the light, John. Glad to have you aboard.

Phoning It In: Mauer Leading Batting Race

This is going to be a tough week to post, and the only reason I'm jumping on right now is because I may not be able to for the rest of the week. But I wanted to call your attention quickly to this post over at 'Very Well Then' blog. I hand cranked out these numbers by hand on my way home from Wrigley yesterday and discovered the same thing - that even though Joe Mauer needs 21 more plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, he would WIN the batting title if the season ended today. How does that work? Click on over and find out.

I hope to talk to you all again soon. But it's going to be a CRAZY week