Empty

One can make a pretty good argument that the winner of the AL Central is consistently the team with the most depth. When we prognosticate, we focus on starting pitching, the lineup and the bullpen, and that's as it should be - it's silly to award a division to the team with the best 26th guy. But year after year, it seems like the team that weathers the storms the best, whose bench and high minors guys fill the cracks that need filling, wins the AL Central.

I think that same thought every year, and it applies this year too. The Tigers fell off the map when their young guys stopped hitting. The White Sox have flailed for the last month, desperate for bullpen help and that extra bat that can play DH. Meanwhile the Twins have that extra bat (Jim Thome), the bullpen guy that saved the rotation (Brian Duensing) and a rookie that is becoming one of the more valuable Twins (Danny Valencia). And they've been fairly aggressive in adding depth this season with the acquisitions of relievers Matt Capps, Randy Flores and Brian Fuentes.

But the need for depth has been building lately, and in last night's 10-9 loss, the areas hit hardest were all on display.

Infield - About two months ago, I was gong to write a story on how exceptional the Twins infield defense has been. It would look silly now. The Twins lost last night largely on their inability to turn double plays - by my count they missed somewhere around 23 of them. JJ Hardy can't throw the ball to first base on the fly more than 50% of the time, and we'll let his bad wrist be his excuse. Hudson can't pivot, and we'll let his foot be his excuse. And Casilla is sometimes brilliant but mostly maddening and we'll let Nick Punto's hamstring be that excuse.

Meanwhile, Michael Cuddyer might as well add "catcher" to his resume, since he's being asked to field so many throws in the dirt. That said, it sure would be nice to have Justin Morneau's glove back at first base during this stretch, for two reasons. First, because he's pretty darn good at that sort of thing. And second, because he might be more willing to rip some of these guys a new piehole for consistently making him field that junk.

Power - Speaking of Morneau, as the Twins faces one of the premiere left-handed pitchers in the game last night, their top three left-handed sluggers (Morneau, Thome and Jason Kubel) were all hurt or mostly unavailable. The result? The Twins managed 15 hits - and they were all singles. This team is back to being The Piranhas, except that a good chunk of that feisty school of teeth are either hurt, gone or just plain slow.

Bullpen - But it's hard to rip the offense too much when they scored 9 runs in a game started by Justin Verlander. Last night's loss is mostly about the bullpen, and specifically about a strange reluctance the front office has shown all year.

It's fairly well documented exactly how much Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are being overused this year. I count Guerrier being used 18 times in the last 31 games and Crain being used 21 in the last 33 games, both of which tally to about 100 games per season pace. Sure enough, last night they were the guys on the hill blowing leads, but it's hard to blame them.

For that matter, it's hard to blame Ron Gardenhire too much, too. He's consistently lost options in the 'pen this year, whether it was moving Duensing to the rotation, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares (and Pat Neshek) getting hurt or Alex Burnett sucking. Last night you could add Fuentes and Capps to the N/A list with various ailments. So when Scott Baker went down with an injury after just a few innings, even Jeff Manship's reliable (and durable and increasingly critical) arm wasn't enough.

Gardenhire was missing several bullets out of his six-shooter last night, and one needs to ask why that is when it's September 2nd. It continues a trend we have seen all year. For some reason, the Twins don't trust the relievers at AAA-Rochester, and sure as hell don't want to rely on them, despite impressive numbers. Instead, the front office has done just about everything they could do, including trading away top prospect Wilson Ramos, to not rely on them.

That changes tonight, as the Twins try to address a brand new deficit. Remember a couple of days ago we were wondering what the Twins might do with an extra healthy and effective starting pitcher? No more. As of 8:00 this morning, we have no idea who from the Twins will start tonight's game, but the answer appears to be: nobody. Or at least not a starting pitcher. Those maligned guys in Rochester's bullpen that we have been hesitant to trust with a 4-run lead are coming up to piece together a start against the AL West leading Texas Rangers.

Late update: Oops. It looks like Seth broke the news late last night that the starting pitcher will be Matt Fox, who has been starting and relieving in Rochester this year.

Goofy? Yep. Misguided? Maybe. But desperate times call for desperate measures. And even a team that has been relying all year on it's depth can eventually run empty.

The Real Danny Valencia

So for two years, I’ve questioned Seth Stohs about his Valenciatic Crush. For two years I argued that he was overhyped. And then on Tuesday night I found myself tweeting this during a crucial at-bat:

Is it wrong to be thrilled Valencia is up in this position? If it is, I don't wanna be right.

Again, that was TUESDAY night, not last night. And Valencia rewarded my faith with a clutch hit, just like he did last night when he hit a walk-off single to lead the Twins to a 2-1 win over the Tigers.

So, was I wrong? Have I seen the light?

Well, pretty clearly, I was, because I didn’t expect this much success this soon. (Here are his minor league stats.) Last year in Rochester, Valencia has 37 strikeouts compared to 8 walks, and so I wouldn’t have anticipated much early success from someone who was having trouble reading pitches. I also wouldn’t have expected a 819 OPS in the majors from a guy who posted just a 720 OPS this year in AAA.

What worried me the most about Valencia was his age. He turns 26 years old this month, which is old for a prospect. (For instance, he's older than Delmon Young and about the same age as Alexi Casilla.) But we’ve explored that question on my blog before, and third baseman often end up being a little older, for whatever reason. Corey Koskie, for instance, also debuted as a 25-year-old, and that was a September cup of coffee.

But I was wrong about more than just his age. Valencia’s glovework isn’t at Koskie’s level, but it’s solid, and Ultimate Zone Rating is pegging him as having saved 5 runs over the average major league third baseman this year, and that’s in less than half a season.

He’s also already made adjustments at the plate. When he first came up, he was a dead pull hitter. He still is, but now he’s hitting it with authority, and at least using the center of the field effectively. That’s a real positive adjustment.

Finally, he just seems really happy to be here, soaking it in, having the right attitude. I’ve seen him signing autographs before the game, he is smiling in the dugout, he just doesn’t look like he’s taking this for granted. It’s good to see.

So who is Valencia? I’m still not convinced he’ll ever be an All-Star, but he could be Koskie, only right-handed and without the golden glovework. That would be fine with me and likely with the Twins since he could be around through at least 2016. I’m guessing that would be fine with Valencia too, because Koskie made about $26M over the course of his career.

Manny

There aren't too many one-name guys in sports, and Manny deserves that kind of cred. You know the drill - he can be scary, scary good, if only he can be motivated. You know, like in a pennant race. Or in a contract year. Or hitting in a tiny little ballpark that can inflate his numbers.

Uh, oh.

It's all right to be a bit concerned as Twins fans. When he joined the Dodgers two years ago with similar incentives, Manny hit about .400 with 17 HR in 187 AB. That's basically cross-pollinating Ted Williams with a roided up Mark McGwire. Which is scary as an opponent, and probably scarier as a media member.

Plus, he was clutch. In those two months with the Dodgers, he posted a 3.45 WPA. One way to think about that would be to say that he basically won 7 games all by himself over those two months. Another would be to compare it to the highest hitter's WPA on the Twins, which is Justin Morneau (still) with 2.69.

Think about that. Manny outdistanced Morneau by about 40% with 33% less time. He basically had twice the impact on a monthly basis - and Morneau was one of the leading candidates for MVP.

It's not silly to be worried about Manny's impact. Indeed, given his history, it would be silly to not be concerned.

For Elise

This was first published in 2002 on the first day of kindergarten. Today, Elise starts 8th grade and Riggs starts 5th grade. Good luck guys. I'm so proud of you both, and deeply in love.

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He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.

She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."

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Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.

And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.

Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.

It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.

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Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.

He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.

But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.

It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.

He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.

So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.

And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

Gratis Flores

Twins claim LHP Randy Flores off waivers from the Colorado Rockies

What's not to like about gratis flores? They brighten up a space, freshen things up, and might even help you get lucky. Same with Randy Flores. He brightens up the bullpen, could keep left-handed batters from stinking up the joint, and the Twins might even get lucky.

That springtime hope is especially strong when you look at his numbers this year. He hasn’t given up many hits – just 22 in 27 innings, which is good. He strikes people out at a decent rate – about the major league average of six per nine innings. He’s given up four home runs, and that’s really only one more than you might like to see.

The troubling part is the walks. He has walked players about 50% more than average, but control is something the Twins (and pitching coach Rick Anderson) are pretty good an instilling. Of all the faults he could have – and let’s be honest that freely acquired talent is gonna have faults – that’s the one you might choose.

So why is he available? Because he doesn’t do what he was supposed to do – get left-handers out. Unfortunately, that’s also exactly what he is supposed to do with the Twins. This year, lefties are posting a higher OPS (776) than right-handers (702) against Flores. This isn’t just small sample size – that’s been the case over the last three years (852 vs 773) too.

Hmm. Time for a sidebar…

Whenever you see this argument made, be very wary of how many times pitchers have faced each side of the plate. For instance, you may have heard that left-handed batters hit left-handed pitcher Glen Perkins better than right-handed batters, and that’s been true, with southpaws hitting .325 vs. .287 that right-handed batters hit.

However, there can be a good reason for this: mediocre and poor left-handed hitters aren’t allowed to face very good left-handed batters. Mediocre and poor right-handed batter are. So when a left-handed pitcher faces a left-handed batter, you can assume it’s a pretty darn good left-handed batter. Of course he hits better.

That might be partly the case with Perkins. Perkins has faced three times as many right-handed batters as left-handed batters. In the normal course of games, he would probably face closer to twice as many, so it looks like he is facing a higher level of left-handed batter than right-handed batters.

For Flores, on the other hand, the opposite is true. He has faced almost the same numbers of left-handed hitters as he has right-handed hitters. It’s almost as if National League managers have gone out of their way to let lefties bat against him. Not a good sign.

Flores also seems to have become more hittable as the year goes on, and that also seems to be a trend over the last few years. But overall, those averages against him aren’t terrible. Plus, he hasn’t pitched in the American League since 2002, so there is a decent chance he could be effective until the AL adjusts. Finally, you never know how a left-hander who struggle with control might respond to Anderson – just look at the career years Dennys Reyes had here.

The bottom line is that when someone offers you free Flores, you would be foolish not to accept. Just don’t expect them to last long. Enjoy whatever short bloom they give you, parlay that into some favor from Lady Luck, and be prepared for them to turn quickly.

Your Saturday just got better.

First, you know about the Sooz/TwinsCentric Party in St. Cloud on Saturday afternoon to watch the Twins beat up (knock, knock) the Rangers. We’ll be meeting at Howie’s from 2:30 to 6:30 with Seth, Me, Sooz and plenty of others. There will be specials and raffles including two Row 6 Twins tickets. I’ll see you there.

And now we have a doubleheader. At 7:00 in St. Cloud at Joe Faber field, there is going to be a Twins Alumni Game, featuring Corey Koskie, Jim Eisenreich, Juan Berenguer, Jarvis Brown, Al Newman, Brian Raabe, Greg Thayer and even (Da-da-DUUUUH) Ron Davis. Oh, plus fireworks. You can find all the info here.

I never thought I’d say this, but St. Cloud looks like the place to be this weekend. :-)

Looking for a Bump?

This year, the Twins payroll increased almost 50% to $95 million. Next year, they’ll likely increase payroll again, and will need to given the payroll challenges they face. But how much will it go up? Can the Twins (and their fans) expect significant increases in revenues in the second and third years of a new ballpark? Is there any historical precedence for that?

There is, but it’s far from universal, and the average increase is downright depressing.

In this year’s Maple Street Press Twins Annual I wrote a comprehensive review of what other “small market” teams had done when they opened their new stadiums. I identified 13 since Camden Yards opened in 1992 and looked at how they increase payroll and how the new stadium impacted their franchise.

Today, let’s look at what happened the year after a new stadium opened (according to USAToday.com).

There isn’t a ton of consistency here. Some teams, like Baltimore, Cleveland and Seattle, all increased payroll significantly. However, in each case, there was a mitigating factor:

• Baltimore barely increased payroll as their new stadium opened. The revenues that poured in from Camden Yards remarkable success were more than people really expected, and lasted far longer than it had for previous stadiums.


• Cleveland was in the middle of a youth movement when Jacobs Field opened and that drove up salaries as those players gained service time.


• Seattle’s number is a bit misleading because they opened in the middle of 1999. Their first full year wasn’t until the next year, which is when revenue climbed 33%.

But it isn’t crazy to suggest that the Twins could increase payroll by as much as 20% next year. It isn’t common for MLB teams, and it doesn’t look like teams generally see that kind of revenue bump in a stadium’s second year. But it has happened.

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Anyone want to talk about last night's game? No? Fine by me.

Reminder: You're busy for Saturday's Twins Game. You'll be in St. Cloud, watching it with Seth, Sooz and I. 2:30 to 6:30 at Howie's in downtown St. Cloud and we'll have the usual specials and drawing. It's time for out-state Twins fans to flex their muscles a bit, I think.

Surprise Hero

We talk a lot about “doing the little things”. So how about a statistic that recognizes the little contributions?

I’ve talked a lot about WPA or Win Probability Added before in this space. The short explanation for WPA is that it measures how much a player increases or decreases the chances of his team winning a game.

What I like about it is that it mirrors the value that hard-core fans see, especially in the context of a game. And, since I’m a hard core fan, and since I was at last night’s game, I felt comfortable predicting that the Twins players of the game (according to WPA) would look something like this:

1 star – Danny Valencia – for his home run that broke the 0-0 tie

2 stars – Scott Baker – for throwing seven innings of shut out ball

3 stars – Michael Cuddyer – for delivering the clutch hit that put the game away.

But looking at the WPA breakdown for last night’s game, I find out that I’m not quite right. Let’s see what I missed…..

0 stars (because he ended up in 4^th place – Valencia (+9%)

That monster home run that broke a scoreless game was obviously a big hit, and WPA recognizes that. It increased the Twins chances of winning by 13%, from 57% to 70%. But that grounder in the second where Jim Thome was out at home is charged to him, too, and that hurt the cause significantly. (-7%)

1 star – I’m going to get to that in a minute. Hang tight.

2 stars – Cuddyer – (+12%)

I’m right in that the three-run double was the big hit of the night. It improved the Twins chances of winning the game by 20%, up to 90%, and that was even with the baserunning gaffe (which may not have really been a gaffe, but a ploy to make the 3^rd run scored, according to Cuddy). But Cuddy didn’t do quite as well in other at-bats.

3 stars – Baker – (+37%)

Well, I just feel stupid about this one. Baker holds a shutout for five innings in a tie game, and then two more innings afterwards, and I don’t list him as the 3 star player of the game? Brain cramp. My only excuse is that I’m a little down on Baker right now, and not completely objective.

How down? Down enough that I was ready to turn to a complete stranger after Valencia’s dinger and predict that Baker would give up the lead in the next inning. And when it was 4-0 I was willing to bet even money that Baker gave up some runs with that lead. I just don’t trust him yet. Sorry, Scott. I’m glad you proved me wrong.

Now, back to that one-star player. Who was more valuable this game than Valencia?

A: Orlando Hudson (+9%)

What did Hudson do that was great? Let’s see where those numbers come from:

1^st inning – singled to right with one out (+2.4%)

3^rd inning – walked to lead off the inning (+3.8%) – he was erased by Joe Mauer’s double play in the next at-bat, but that isn’t his fault

5^th inning – he tripled to right (+2.8%) – How did I forget this? It was only one of the most exciting plays of the game. Boy, was the crowd pumped seeing him stretch that triple. It also set up the walks to Mauer and Jason Kubel and ultimately the big hit by Cuddyer, though WPA doesn't give any karmic credit for that.

7^th inning – grounded out to shortstop (-0.2%)

Two for three with a triple, a walk, and a run scored. Plus, a couple of other attempts that fell short through no fault of his own. Not a bad night for Hudson, and one that I might have overlooked if it wasn’t for WPA.

I you’re looking for more TwinsCentric Twins notes, make sure to head over to Parker’s Over The Baggy blog where he talks about left-handed relief options that might be available.

And if you want to talk some Twins, clear your calendar on Saturday. The next TwinsCentric (and Sooze) Viewing Party will head out of the Twin Cities Metro and up the road to St. Cloud. The lovely and talented Sooze is running the show on this one. On August 28^th from 2:30-6:30 at Howie’s in downtown St. Cloud, there will be drink and appetizer specials as well as some give-aways. Those in the Metro, it’s not too far away, and those in the outstate, come on down! These events have been a lot of fun and a great opportunity to meet some of your favorite bloggers.

Off -Day Notes

Let's see how quickly I can crank out a few random observations....

Thome's Early Aggression
You can get a pretty good idea of how Jim Thome is going to do in an at-bat based on how many strikes he has. If he isn't making contact early, he's unlikely to do so later in that at-bat.

For instance, once Thome has had two strikes on him, he's in trouble. With a 0-2 count, he has yet to get a hit this year. At 1-2, he's batting just .179. At an even-2-2 count, he's hitting just .111. And at a full count, he's hitting just .161 - but has a .500 on-base percentage.

But if he connects early, watch out. The 3-0 pitch hit for a home run on Sunday is a rarity - he's only put two balls in play at that count and that other one was an out. But consider what he has done on the first pitch this year: 18 AB, 11 hits and 6 home runs. You don't want to groove your first pitch to Thome. There are similarly scary numbers on 1-0 and 2-0 counts.

It looks like Thome can either hurt you bad, or he can't, and you'll find out which when you throw him his first strike.

Mauer's Rest
Since the All-Star Break, Mauer has started at catcher in four consecutive games exactly once - and there was a rest day in between those. Before the All-Star break, he caught four or more consecutive games NINE times, including a streak of ten games, eight games and seven games. In the 30 games since the All-Star break, he has NOT started at catcher 13 times, or 43% of the time. Before the All-Star break that percentage was just 26%.

Maybe it's the rest, or maybe it's something else, but the result is he is hitting the snot out of the ball. We've been praising the starting pitching, and the bullpen, and Danny Valencia's rise and others. But check out Mauer's numbers since the ASB: .437 batting average, including a .504 on-base percentage and .660 slugging percentage. He already has 28 RBI, compared to 35 before the All-Star Break. He is carrying this team offensively right now.

Being Careful Not To Jinx
With a three game lead in the division going into tonight's three-game series with the White Sox, the Twins have a chance to really put the Pale Hose in a tough position. If the Twins were to sweep, the White Sox would be six games back, have just three remaining games to play against the Twins, and still have ten games against the Yankees and Red Sox on their schedule.

It's worth noting how the White Sox responded last year. On August 30th, the White Sox fell 6 games back of the Tigers, and 1.5 games behind the Twins. The next day, they traded away Jose Contreras and Jim Thome, on the last day that playoff rosters were set.

Could the same thing happen this year? It's hard to say, because last year the Sox were dealing with the surprise addition of Alex Rios (and his huge contract) to their roster. That might have been part of the reason that they felt they needed to trade away two rather large contracts despite still having some shot for the playoffs. But if the White Sox find themselves 6 or so games back at the end of August this year, it isn't inconceivable that they would do something similar, especially if it meant getting them out from under of next year's payroll mess.

Courage

Ron Gardenhire was absolutely right.

And I'm writing this as the enemy. I've researched studies that "proved" pitch count lead to injuries, wrote about it in three parts, and concluded that pitch counts are BS.

But I'm surprised there is even any debate about whether Gardenhire should have pulled Kevin Slowey after seven inning of no-hit baseball. I assume that most of the venom is coming from people who dislike Gardenhire as a manager, and looking for some fuel for the fire. This isn't it. And again, this is coming from someone who thinks pitch counts are terribly overused. Here was my summary of that research:

The 100 pitch count “limit” was ingrained in people’s noggins before this study. The original PAP metric had sabremetrics lovers everywhere analyzing and criticizing managers for fragging their players' arms, present company included. The revised metric supposedly brought it even more credence.

It didn’t. The study of pitch counts appears to – as Bill James wrote a couple of years later – resulted in a dead end. The evidence shows that pitchers arms are no more affected in the short or long term by 125 pitches than they are by 100, and barely affected up to 139 pitches. And pitch counts like that almost never happen in major league baseball these days.

I’m not advocating pushing the limit to 180 pitches. But maybe Bert is right: we can trust the opposing batters to indicate to a pitcher when he is done, and rely a lot less on arbitrary pitch counts.

If Kevin Slowey wasn't battling tendinitis, or didn't skip a start, I'd fully support the flack that Gardenhire is getting. But if that wasn't true, I'm just as sure that Gardenhire would not have pulled him. In fact, I think it's funny that of all managers, Gardenhire is the one getting criticized for not giving his player a chance to get an individual accomplishment.

If anything, Gardenhire jumps through hoops to get his players those laurels. He juggles his bullpen to get his closer saves. He'll nurse starting pitchers in close games to the end of an inning, in the hope of getting his guy a win. He pays close attention to milestones his hitters are reaching, and he's extremely cautious about moving players around in the field or the lineup, for fear of embarrassing them.

There is NO WAY he wanted to pull Slowey. He admitted as much after the game. Even said he would "Boo" himself for it. Anyone who watches him manage must know this. It goes against his every instinct.

But you don't F with a pitcher with a sore elbow. Slowey threw a season high 114 pitches last week - and ended up missing a start. Extending Slowey to pitch past that number is a reasonable goal that both he, Gardenhire and Rick Anderson should embrace. But not coming off an injury. That's just nuts - and whether a no-hitter was in play or not is relatively irrelevant.

Gardenhire and coach Rick Anderson showed they are willing to take the heat - from fans, announcers and probably their own team - to watch out for the longer term interested of a team and for a young arm's career. By doing so, they showed foresight, caring, courage and leadership. And that should be celebrated, not criticized.