Twins Risk Getting (Black)-Burned

Minnesota Twins announce they have come to an agreement with RHP Nick Blackburn on a 4-year, $14 million contract with an option for 2014.

Sometimes you need to make a move for more than just financial reasons. Sometimes you do it to avoid risk, or to put your team in a position to compete. Sometimes you do it to go that extra mile, or to signal to the league or your fan base that things have changed. And sometimes you do it because you just plain like a player and what he's done.

This should NOT have been one of those times.

I think it's fair to say, among the sabremetric set, I'm one of Blackburn's biggest believers. His critics throw the word "lucky" around a lot. They point to his low strikeout ratio, his high hit rate, and his mediocre groundball percentage. They look at his 4ish ERA and claim it will almost undoubtedly move the wrong way. They emphatically state that his luck is going to end.

And to that I say: so what? All of our luck is going to end. If he was lucky last year, and he was lucky the year before, who is to say that he won't be lucky again next year, and the next year, and the next?

The game is a game. There are infinite ways to play and win. We get so caught up in our own ability to identify the prototypical high upside power pitcher that we don't appreciate a guy who gets it done any other way. And Blackburn has unquestionably gotten the job done over the last two years, legitimately being the Twins best starting pitcher over that stretch. We should be celebrating this, not dreading the end of it.

So, to recap - I'm a Blackburn bobo. And I still don't like this deal.

To understand why, we need to understand the other option the Twins had. Blackburn is under their control for the next four years, regardless of whether they signed this deal or not. This year they could pay him whatever they wished. For each of the next three years, the Twins could have decided whether to offer arbitration to Blackburn, and then he would have been paid fair market value for a pitcher with his tenure and performance.

So one could take a look at what other pitchers with Blackburn's tenure and performance are making and have a pretty good idea, right now, what the Twins would have to pay Blackburn if they continued to retain him. The future would look something like this:

2010: $.7M
2011: ~$3M
2012: ~$6M
2013: ~$8M

And while we don't have a year-by-year breakdown of Blackburn's contract, a pretty good guess is that is looks like this:

2010: $.7M
2011: ~$2.8M
2012: ~$4.5M
2013: ~$6M

Which gets us back to why you do a deal like this. It has nothing to do with the guy, or the position your team is in, or sending signals to anyone. It only has to do with one thing: money.

Assuming the Twins were going to pay Blackburn for at least the next two years, they are risking about $10 million to potentially save about $4 million. I just don't think you can do that with a low strikeout pitcher. There's too much evidence that they aren't effective for a very long time.

And the Twins should KNOW this. They've done it twice recently. The first time was disastrous and the second time worked out better because the contract was shorter.

The shorter contract was with Carlos Silva, who agreed to a two-year deal with a third year option. Silva was great the first year and terrible the second year. The third-year option for $4 million was cheap enough that the Twins picked it up, Silva ate 200 innings with a 4.19 ERA and then signed his current deal with the Mariners. That worked out because the option year was just three years out.

But Blackburn's option year is five years out, which brings us to our second example: Joe Mays. Mays also had a low strikeout rate, a high hit rate, but had an incredible year in 2001, posting a 3.16 ERA over 232(!) innings. The Twins also signed him to a four-year deal with a fifth-year option for $20 million. (It was more than Blackburn's because Mays was already arbitration-eligible.)

Over the next four years, Mays pitched less than 400 innings, and posted a 5.81 ERA .

Mays' problems weren't necessarily related to his strikeout rate, as he struggled with injuries which included a reconstructive elbow surgery. But that's the point - there are already plenty of risks with young arms to worry about.

Given all those risks, there needs to be a compelling reason to sign a contract like this. And there just isn't one, just like there wasn't back on January 17th, 2002. I can practically copy and paste the conclusion:

I’m a Twins fan, and I hope I’m wrong about this. I hope Nick has a long and prosperous career. I hope executives in baseball circles laud Bill Smith for years to come. I even hope Jim Pohlad saves millions of dollars over the life of this contract. But from an impartial observer this looks like a $14M gamble on a somewhat questionable commodity that the Twins didn’t need to do.

Listening to Vegas

I hate the overrated/underrated game. You know how it goes: "such-and-such team is overrated/underrated" or "such-and-such team exceeded expectations." What I hate is that the standard is so nebulous. Give me something I can evaluate, like wins and losses.

For my money, the best standard for measuring expectations is the degenerate gamblers. Show me guys who have laid serious money on both sides of a number, and I'll show you guys who have done some homework. Which is why I made a point of sifting through some gambling sites tonight to see what the over/under wins number was for American League teams. (BTW, these are found at betus.com.)

AL West
Angels - 84.5
Rangers - 84.5
Mariners - 83.5
A's - 79.5

Here's why I'm glad I did this - because I already fell into the overrated/underrated trap. I've heard so many people tout the Mariners this year that I hinted six weeks ago that I think they're overrated. But 83.5 wins doesn't seem excessive. That feels about right for the Mariners.

By the way, if you're a big Baseball Prospectus PECOTA guy, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is. PECOTA states that the Angels should win about 76 games this year, or 8.5 games less than Vegas. It's the biggest spread between PECOTA and Vegas in the American League. Bet the "under" and double your money.

And for the record, I wouldn't touch that "under" bet with a 10 ft pole. The Angels won 97 games last year, and now we think they're going to win just 84? And PECOTA thinks they'll lose an extra 21 games this year?

AL East
Red Sox 94.5
Yankees 94.5
Rays 89.5
Orioles 73.5
Blue Jays 71.5

Here's a shocker - the wild card team is likely coming from the AL East. Vegas' money is ranking the Rays as the underdog, which isn't totally shocking considering all the money that pours in from the Northeast. For the record, PECOTA likes the Rays a couple games more than Vegas and the Yankees a couple of games less, making it a much closer race. I'd love that to be true. I'd love to see the Yankees miss the playoffs. I'm small and bitter that way.

Now let's get to the one you've all been waiting for...

AL Central
Twins 83.5
White Sox 82.5
Tigers 80.5
Indians 74.5
Royals 71.5

That's the order I would come up with too, with the Twins and White Sox a step or two ahead of the Tigers, and way ahead of the Indians and Royals. But I think Vegas is underestimating the spread between the top two teams and the rest of the division. Both of those teams feel like they're 90-win teams. It would truly be a sucker bet to parlay two "over" bets in the same division, but that would tempt me.

Instead, can I bet against PECOTA? It lists the Twins, White Sox AND Tigers as 80 win teams. If only BP would open a casino.

At StarTribune.com: That's What Everyone Says

I'm a little worried about the non-existent Mauer contract extension.

Bill Smith's Report Card

It's been a great offseason for the Twins, to be sure. But what was so great about it?

On Sunday Nick Nelson and I were Doogie Wolfson's guests on AM1500, and I found myself in the minority on the best offseason move. Here's how they grade out:

Re-signing Carl Pavano (Grade: B)
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Offering arbitration to Pavano was almost a no-brainer, because he was either going to result in a good draft pick or a one-year deal. The latter happened and that's fortunate for the Twins, because there weren't a lot of starting pitchers on the market that would have been a good fit. (And the one who was a decent fit was represented by Scott Boras.)

Signing Orlando Hudson (Grade: B+)
This is the move that is being universally praised, and I'm part of that universe. But just because we had to wait for it doesn't mean it was the most valuable move. Hudson is a great fit who fills gaps at both second base and the second lineup spot. But he was part of a slew of middle infielders who would be good fits, including Felipe Lopez who signed earlier this week at 1/4 of Hudson's salary. I'm adding the "+" grade because there are plenty of indications that the Twins stretched beyond their pre-planned budget to make this happen. That's gutsy, and a good sign for the future.

Signing Jim Thome (Grade: B+)
You have to love a bench signing the simultaneously:
1. boosts offense,
2. provides some veteran leadership and
3. reminds Delmon Young that playing the game for money is a privilege, not a right.
To be fair, this kind of guy also isn't exactly rare. Jermaine Dye is still out there. So is Garret Anderson. You can argue that either would be a better fit than the left-handed hitting Thome. But I'm adding a "+" because adding a bench bat like Thome was a stretch goal, and they achieved it.

Trading for JJ Hardy (Grade A+)
If Hardy goes belly up - and he's certainly gone belly up a couple of times in his career - then I'm dead wrong. But the Hardy move was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.

Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.

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If you're up early tomorrow morning, I hope you'll turn the dial over to the Powertrip Morning Show on KFAN. I'll be talking Twins with the Hawkey, Sludge and the Superstar at 7:20 and pimping the Twins Annual. If you can't listen locally on the radio, you can listen through their website.

A Caddyshack Confession

So how bad is your baseball addiction?

It is said that the first step on the road to recovery is admitting that you have a problem, and that's what Sarah was trying to do over at Oh, It's THOSE Girls Baseball Blog on Friday. She asks for confessions:

It's time to confess the craziest and/or least socially-acceptable thing you've done for the love of baseball. Don't worry. This is a safe place. Unless you've out and out committed a felony or harmed a puppy, we won't judge.

And she gets them, including some doozies. It's well worth stopping by.

The thing is about being a Twins Geek is that there are no shortage of stories. I asked The Voice of Reason, and she came up with the same top two that I would've come up with, the second of which is the one I'll share today. Sarah, if you want to fire up a Nick Punto Day type blogging festival - #TrueBaseballConfessions or something like that - I'll fully support it and reveal the top one. It contains a quote that TVOR still pulls out on occasion to shame me.

But first, today's story...

It's 2002, and the Twins are making their first postseason appearance since 1991. I've been writing about them the whole year on the initial year of TwinsGeek.com, though I didn't have more than two dozen people reading it before the end of July. But I wasn't going to be able to attend the first two home playoff games because I was in Pennsylvania at my wife's friend's wedding.

In fact, there was some question about how much of Game Four I would get to watch, because it was scheduled DURING the wedding and reception. Game Four was an elimination game for the Twins, and various wedding events conspired against me being able to watch it. I went a little nuts, searching high and low for a TV in some god-forsaken country club, and finally found one in the caddyshack.

I was trying to walk an impossible line, watching as much of the game as I could while also trying to make appearances at the reception with my wife and her friends. In retrospect, it's pretty clear I failed. The final straw was loaded after dinner, when the dancing started. As her friends launched themselves onto the dance floor, I asked "Would you like to go dance?"

"Well, yeah," she replied, shocked that I would even offer.

"Great," I replied. "You go dance with your friends, and when you're done, I'll be in the caddyshack."

Not my finest hour.

But it did make for a pretty good story, recounting the adventure while quoting Caddyshack multiple times. (I've recently posted some of those old archives online, and you can find it here.)

But yeah, I have a story, also starring TVOR, that puts that story to shame. It'll need to wait until the next confession.

------------------------------------

Oh geez, I forgot to feature my favorite comment from Friday. It was an easy choice, from Beth:

August 25, 2005. (We decided we needed to know to celebrate the anniversary of Hor day.)

I am so glad I'm not the only person who remembers the day the recording skipped. A guy sitting with my group of friends said, "Those marketing people think of EVERYTHING. That'll get butts in the seats!"

I'm sure many people we tell think we made it up, but indeed, the recording skipped!

I love knowing this date. First because I feel validated. And second because my friends and I are now brainstorming how we're going to annually commemorate Hor day. I'm assuming (hoping? praying?) it's with hot dogs, and not, um...

Breaking Weekend News: KSTP 1500 Appearance

Hi gang,

I just found out that I'm going to be on KSTP 1500 tomorrow (Sunday) starting at 12:30 to talk about the Twins with Doogie Wolfson. I'm especially excited because Nick Nelson is also going to be there, and he's wrong about almost everything, so it should be entertaining to hear me straighten him out. (I keed, I keed.)

An hour of Twins talk on the last day of February? You betcha!

So what do you want us to talk about? Throw your questions or topics you want covered in the comments and we'll try to get to them. If you can't listen on the radio, you can still tune in. I hope you can.

John

The Best Hormel Row of Fame Song EVER

It's 2005 and I'm attending an afternoon game with a bunch of friends from work. We've done this a few times, so by now I know the Hormel Row of Fame Song is going to illicit some boisterous karaoke. Sometime around the fourth inning, it starts.

When you are at the game
(ba-ba-ba-bum)

Are you in Hormel's Row of Fame?
(ba-ba-ba-bum)..

Except that this time the track gets stuck.

If you are in the lucky seat
(ba-ba-ba-bum)

You'll win a Hor....skip

You'll win a Hor....skip

You'll win a Hor....skip

By this time, the work friends and I are exchanging uncomfortable smiles. The skipping audio seems to goes on forever, but it was probably only three more times before the booth quickly faded it out. At which point I hear the guy behind me remark:

"That WOULD be a lucky seat."

-----------------------------------------

Yesterday's comment of the day was a late entry from blasphemer over at the new StarTribune.com TwinsCentric blog:

Casilla's problem...

is Ron Gardenhire. He's in love with Punto. Casilla would be picked up by another team in an instant. If you want to take a chance on waiving someone do it with Punto. No one is going pick him and his salary up. Tolbert is a hustler, but he is a hack. Send HIM down.

I wanted to address this comment because it's a common complaint about Ron Gardenhire - he's in love with so-an-so or he doesn't play rookies enough. But here's the thing...

Q: Who played second base the most last year?
A: Alexi Casilla.

Q: What did he hit?
A: .202/.280/.259. In 228 at-bats.

Q: How was his defense?
A: His UZR at 2B was -9.6. His UZR/150 was -20.9.

No, Casilla wasn't given free rein. But he was given lots of opportunities, and he mostly sucked:

• To start the season he played second base in 22 of the first 27 games (being replaced in five games by Harris, not Punto). On May 2, hitting .160, he was benched and Tolbert was given a shot.
  
• Because Tolbert also struggled, Casilla was given another week or so at the end of May. He went 6-29.
• He was handed the job again for the last two weeks before the trade deadline. He has 6 hits in 43 at-bats. (To his credit, he also had 10 walks. Which raised his OBP to .264.)
  
• When the Twins acquired Orlando Cabrera, he and Punto split time. Over the next 13 games, he started seven of them. He went 6-22 and after a brief period...
• Was handed the job again for eleven straight games at the end of August. He hit like crazy the first five of them and then got one hit over the last six games.

To get on Gardy for not giving Casilla enough leash is nuts. He gave him enough leash to hang himself, and almost enough leash to hang the rest of the team.

Just so it's clear: I like Casilla. I think he's a good player who just needs to turn a corner. But make no mistake: he has already received far more time than he's deserved. And the person who kept giving him that time was Gardy.

TwinsCentric Post at StarTribune.com

You know I love it when you stop by, but I've scribbled tonight's story, called "Options", over at the new TwinsCentric blog at StarTribune.com. I'd really appreciate it if you would click over and leave me lots and lots of comments.

And speaking of comments, I've noticed we're getting a lot of great ones, so I'm going to try and feature my favorite from the previous entry each day. Yesterday's comes from Shannon who mentioned:

On a side note my 5 year old daughter keeps asking me "When's it going to be Spring time?" With the increase of Twins coverage I am happy to say "Soon."

From your mouth to God's ears Shannon. It can't get here soon enough.

I'll be writing back here again tomorrow, sharing the greatest Hormel Row of Fame song ever played, which is now a permanent title given that Hormel will no longer be partnering with the Twins. I hope to have you return then, and again, please give me your thoughts on today's post over at StarTribune.com.

The Twins Rivals

Historically, who are the Twins biggest rivals?

Nope, not the White Sox. They’ve the rivals now, but that’s a recent development. They just weren’t good enough before this last decade. Really, what drives that rivalry is the obnoxious fans. (Oh, and their loudmouth starting left-handed pitchers. I haven’t forgotten you Mark Buehrle.) There's nothing scarier than a couple of shirtless father-and-son White Sox fans.

The Indians are probably your next guess, because the Twins have a nasty beanball history with them. But for most of the Twins history the Indians weren’t in their division. And once they were, the Indians were dominant (the 90s), followed by the Twins being dominant. (the 00s) We haven’t seen much back-and-forth there.

The Tigers also joined the Twins division in the mid-90s. I suppose you could get fired up about the 1987 ALDS, but that was a sweep by the Twins. And since joining the AL Central, the Tigers were mostly pathetic up until a few years ago. It’s been fun to dance with them in 2006 and 2009, but that's because we won, and that’s as far back as the rivalry goes.

Instead, the team that seems to rise and fall with the Twins isn't in their division any more. It’s the Oakland A’s. At the end of the 1960s the Twins were battling them for the division, with the Twins winning it in 1969 and 1970 and the A’s then dominating the early 70s. And the rivalry became especially feisty back then because Billy Martin was involved.

While most people remember Martin as a manager of the Yankees or A's, he started his coaching career with the Twins. In 1969 as the Twins manager, he made sure he sent a message to the rival A's:

This is an excerpt from a new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers by Chris Jaffe. I've seen several excerpts, which have been fantastic. You can find the following in a longer excerpt here and you can order it here.

Minnesota hosted Oakland over Fourth of July weekend, with the A’s leading the Twins by a game heading into the three-game series. In the first contest, the Twins exploded with an 8-0 lead after four innings. Rather than relax, Martin rubbed it in so everyone would know who was the big dog in the division. Martin twice ordered Tovar to steal second base even though the lead was safely iced. After his last steal, Tovar took such a big lead at second that Oakland’s pitcher tried to pick him off. In frustration, he instead threw the ball into center. The rattled hurler immediately surrendered back-to-back doubles to the Twins, who romped to victory.

Seeking revenge, the A’s beaned Minnesota’s leadoff batter the next day, which played right into Martin’s hands. The beaning rallied Minnesota’s troops, who scored four runs before the first out was recorded in what proved to a 13-1 blowout. A come-from-behind victory the next day solidified their new division lead, which they never relinquished the rest of the season. Martin had not played to win; he came to castrate.

Martin’s unsporting conduct potentially could motivate the opposition to try harder. Martin never cared about the downside, though. He knew repeated humiliation would cause the opponent’s morale to collapse, while these tactics gave his team more confidence in their future fights. Prior to that series Minnesota had gone 5-4 against Oakland on the season. From that series onward, they won eight of nine games, outscoring the A’s 85-37 in the process. In those future showdowns, Martin asserted Minnesota’s supremacy by intentionally baiting Oakland. He once had a batter steal a base with the team leading 14-4 in the seventh inning. In their final showdown, Minnesota swiped a base when up by six runs. Animals who mark their territory by urination were subtler than Martin.

As the Twins rose again in the 80s, you’ll recall that the other superpower in the division was the A’s, fueled by the Bash Brothers. From 1987 through 1992 the only two teams to with the AL West were the Twins and the A’s.

That final year the race was especially close. With a 60-38 record, the Twins had a chance to deliver a knockout punch to the second place A’s, who were three games back when they visited the Metrodome in late July. Instead, the A’s swept the Twins, including a 5-4 loss in which Rick Aguilera gave up a 3-run home run in the ninth inning. The Twins were swept again in Oakland later that year, and finished the year in second place, six games back.

And in the last decade, even though they were in different divisions, the two team still butted heads. On the field they met in the playoffs twice, with each team knocking the other out in one ALDS series. And off the field, you had the two little engines that could, the low-revenue darlings of either the sabremetric or traditional crowd.

That's three generations of Twins teams that successfully made their way to the postseason, and in each case they needed to tangle with the A's. By most measurements, this should be what makes a rivalry.

Do You Know the Way to Bad Jose?

"When you get down to it and sit down one-on-one with Jose, I have a lot of fun with him," Gardenhire said. "He's a nice kid. I think we can keep him on the right path."

- Star-Tribune

Giggle. Right. Here's a question: when you sit down one-on-one with someone, do you know who else seems like a good guy?

A: Bad guys.

Q: And when you sit down one-on-one with someone, do you know who seems like a bad guy?

A: Blatantly stupid bad guys.

So I think we can surmise that Jose Mijares isn't blatantly stupid, which is encouraging news given his actions since he joined the Twins:

• He screwed up his visa for spring training last year, Twinsfest this year and now spring training this year
• He showed up so obscenely overweight that he cost himself a spot on the 25-man roster for Opening Day
• He walked out on his winter league team last year, and when he returned his manager left him off the playoff roster even though he was sporting a 1.40 ERA
• And of course he incited his own teammate to charge him from the batters box during a critical pennant race game.

That is some solid work in just eighteen months. A very large bad guy - not as smart as, say, a Sydney Greenstreet villain. But apparently smarter than, for instance, Mongo from Blazing Saddles. With just a touch of crazy thrown it to boot....

Looks like the Twins have their Jabba the Hut. Or will, once he gets his visa.

Baseball's Happy Lexicon

With apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams

This shortest of phrases makes our hearts soar
Pitchers and catchers report
With driveways unshoveled and lower backs sore
Pitchers and catchers report
Still bitter that this year the Yankees are kings
We yearn for the vengeance a new season brings
Like Hornsby we stare out the window for spring
Pitchers and catchers report

Four tiny words and hope’s candle’s lit
Pitchers and catchers report
Words shorter than Punto (who gets after it)
Pitchers and catchers report
A winter spent searching for MLB rumors
Praying that Bill Smith makes a big move or
signs our boy Joe. Can’t spring come any sooner?
Pitchers and catchers report

Sunday they’ll gather and Gardy will praise
Pitchers and catchers report
his cherry extract and Hardy’s slick plays
Pitcher and catchers report
Delmon will swing at a wormburning pitch
Justin will smile cuz the pitcher’s his bitch
While Nathan does something bizarre with his lips
Pitchers and catchers report

Finally you take your turn as poet
Pitchers and catchers report
Channel your winter frustration and show it
Pitchers and catchers report
The comments below are a great place to bleat
Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat
(But add words wherever, if like me you cheat)
Pitchers and catchers report

Stats Attack: Kansas City Royals

Yesterday I gave some advice to some new bloggers. "Take risks," I said. "Try stuff, " I said. "The beauty of a blog is that you have nothing to lose," I said.

Then I blow a pretty good night on trying something new, get about halfway done and I'm not particularly happy with that half. Great. If you think I'm not publishing the damn thing, you've got another thing coming.

Recently I saw a copy of another independent program and scorecard from Seattle called Grand Salami. In the middle of it, they have two pages about the teams the Mariners will play that month, one of which is text and the other one is a stats page with a lot of notes written in. I wondered if that stats page might be something I could come up with regularly when the Twins play opposing team in a big series. How hard could it be?

Answer: if you want to do it the way I want to do it, it's a pain. I don't want the basic stats. I want to see OPS, and I want it against lefties and righties. I want ages. I want defensive metrics like UZR/150 and I really want WPA. Ideally I'd also like to see how players did against specific players from the Twins.

There isn't a site that has all those stats in a fairly easy way to grab them. I could probably design a db to grab a bunch of extracts and get close, but that sure ain't happening tonight. So I grabbed a few of them, typed them in and then started on the notes.

Turns out, the notes aren't too easy either. First, without a pdf converter on my PC, there wasn't a great program to go about doing the graphics. Then, I found out that I lacked space to explain some of the stats the way I probably should, like WPA. And since I ended up doing it in MS-Paint, fixing errors was damn near impossible.

Anyway, here is the first stab at it. I was hoping I could put an actual file into my blog someplace, like in a rich text field, but it looks like I'm limited to a .jpg. too. So it'll probably be too small. Mostly this whole entry is a test to see if I click on it if it will get big enough to read.

We'll see. Good night. Feedback is welcome.

Housekeeping and a Surprise

One of the challenges bloggers face is not having time to read very many other blogs. We either write or we read, and so we write. That's unfortunate for the us, but it's really a bummer for the newer bloggers. Many of them deserve attention and links but don't get them because the rest of us just don't have time to check in on them on a daily basis.

After checking out the various entries on Friday for Nick Punto Day, I'm pretty sure that there has never been more talent writing about the Twins than there is today. And a lot of them should be more front-and-center than they are.

A few years back we tried to address that in a small way. We created MNGameDay.com as a place where all Twins bloggers could have their posts featured, provided we had their RSS feed. You'll also see the same compilation on the right-hand side of this blog. If you have a Twins blog that you don't think is listed in it, please let me know (in the comments is fine) and we (or rather Tom Genrich, who is really the caretaker of the site) will add it.

Anyway, one such new blogger is Topper Anton of Curve for a Strike who is is a talented writer and film professional living in New York despite being only 10 years old. Or at least I assume he's only 10 years old, because he was born the same year I graduated high school, and I'm pretty sure that wasn't more than 10 years ago. Give or take 15 years.

Anyway, Topper is taking on this problem of calling attention to bloggers in a different way. This offseason he's been running a series called "Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em". If you swing by his site you'll find all kinds of profiles for all kinds of Twins bloggers, and today's entry is mine.

I wrote it a week or so ago and thanks to brain damage from my misspent youth, I already remember almost none of it. Which means I'm partially terrified of what I might have written, but also very curious as to what I had to say. Hopefully it won't disappoint.

Remembering R.D.

Since 1986, when Tom Kelly took over the Twins, it seems like the Twins have generally had decent bullpens (with the recent exception of 2008). But Kelly was hired at about the same time as "closer" Ron Davis was traded away. Coincidence?

Not to Twins fans who watched this team in the 80s it wasn't.

I don't remember a lot about teams in the mid-80s, and I'm pretty sure that's a defense mechanism. But I still shudder slightly at the words "Ron Davis." I vaguely remember working in kitchen of Big Boy on France, listening to the game, and feeling like I'd been kicked in the stomach, night after night.

I thought of this today while doing a little research on those mid-80s teams. The core of the 1987 team was put together during the early 80s, and by 1984 they were in the pennant race up until the final few games. Of course, they lost those final few games, including one in which they led 10-0. Guess who failed to close them out?

But there was still plenty of optimism starting the 1985 season. Instead the Twins struggled out of the gate, and manager Billy Gardner (who had coached the team since 1981) was fired in late June. The Twins record at that time was 27-35, and a lot of that had to do with Davis and the bullpen. Up until Gardner being fired, Davis had six saves versus five losses. Bringing him into a game was like flipping a coin.

For whatever reason, his performance improved significantly under new manager Ray Miller. He saved an additional 19 games and didn't blow a save again until late September. Similarly, the Twins also played better, tallying a .500 record under Miller and finishing in fourth place with a 77-85 record. Davis would save his really fantastic meltdowns for the next year, which I'm looking forward to researching the same way I look forward to remembering my last proctology exam.

Looking back at that core of players and the damage the bullpen did, I wonder if the Twins of 1985 and 1986 couldn't have been contenders those years too. I wonder if the bullpen didn't mask how good a team this really was, leading to the magic of 1987.

Nick's Turn

For Nick Punto Day, I thought I'd revisit Punto's history a little bit. Within a month of playing under Ron Gardenhire, we knew Nick Punto was destined for greatness. How? Because Ron Gardenhire said he was destined for greatness.

This was first published on TwinsGeek.com way back on March 16, 2004 during Punto's first spring training with the Twins.

---

Ron Gardenhire has a chance this year to learn a lesson from his predecessor. In order to do so, I think we all need to step back and take a deep breath concerning Nick Punto....

"Gardenhire said Nick Punto has the ability to be a starting shortstop.

'I've seen this kid enough to know he can play a little,' Gardenhire said. 'He's got skills.'"

- Star Tribune

[Punto] is an aggressive, excitable, peppery player who can cause all sorts of commotion.

- Tom Powers in the Pioneer Press

Over the last few day, it hasn't been a Twins update if it doesn't mention Nick Punto in it at least once. Nick Punto could be a starting shortstop. Nick Punto could play some center field. Nick Punto will motivate Cristian Guzman. Nick Punto WILL play center field this week. Enough already.

Nick Punto is a utility infielder, and that might be optimistic. "Futility" infielder is probably more accurate, because for all his feisty, peppery play, he hasn't shown he can hit in the majors. Or even above A ball:

The 111 at-bats last year in Scranton are the nearest he's looked to a major league regular, and the seven hits he has in spring training this year can't undo the last five years of full season baseball.

This isn't to say that Punto doesn't have his uses. He's supposedly a great fielder, and he'll bring some more speed to the team. He may also provide some roster flexibility, since the Twins can try him in center field. In fact, he seems to be the perfect compliment to Michael Cuddyer in that he could play all the positions Cuddyer can't and his speed compliments Cuddyer's power. He's also a switch hitter, which makes him more valuable on the bench, and his feistiness might well be an attribute.

Hold it. Where have we heard this before? A feisty, switch hitting infielder who is solid defensively. Wanna see something eerie?Denny Hocking was a year older and performed slightly better in his first year at AAA, but the resemblance is spooky. And if a comparison to Hocking runs chills up and down your spine, you're not alone. But it's important to remember that Hocking was also a useful player, in much the same way that Punto is. What caused Twins Geeks to wince every time his name was announced was how much he played.

From 1999 through 2001, Hocking had 1086 at-bats, which is nearly twice as many as a utility infielder (who can't hit much) should get. That's not Hocking's fault - that's Tom Kelly's fault for falling in love with Hocking's feistiness and flexibility.

"He brings electricity, he is a gamer, he's able to play every day and do the job, he can absolutely fly, and he has a cannon for an arm. I've seen enough of this kid to know that he is pretty good."

- Ron Gardenhire

Uh-oh. Uh Ron, there's another quote I'd like to acquaint you with:

"Those who do not understand the past are destined to repeat it."

- George Santayana

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If you're posting anything about Nick Punto for Nick Punto Day, make sure to send out a tweet about it with a link and the hashtag #NickPuntoDay. Then it should display over on the right. Have fun exploring what all the other bloggers are saying. We'll see you back here on Monday.

Nick Punto Day is TOMORROW!

Don't forget, tomorrow is Nick Punto Day. It's your job to write about Nick Punto. It's our job to read it.

Andrew Kneeland, whose brainchild this is, is adding a widget to his site at http://twinstarget.com/ which will show all the entries. All you need to do to add yours is tweet about it (with a link of course) and use the hashtag of #NickPuntoDay and it will be picked up. (If I can get the same widget, I'll add it here as well.)

I'm really looking forward to what people can come up with. Have fun!

Maple Street Press Twins 2010 Annual

I'm about to make a mistake that I've made on this site roughly 965 times - and that isn't an exaggeration.

The nature of blogging as a second occupation is that you're forced to a lot of writing on the fly. You don't have time to research as much as you would like. You find yourself cutting entries short so you can get some sleep. And you really don't take the time to let a story marinate in it's own juices. You just crank it out and live with the imperfections.

And that's the mistake.

This story should marinate, because I really hope I refer to it several dozen times over the next month or so. And because the people involved, who I greatly respect, deserve that time for me to get things just right.

They're not going to get it. Here we go.....

Right about now, if you find yourself in this god-forsaken icebox of a state, a little spring would be a nice thing. I find myself watching the shadows on the snow, convincing myself that they're getting shorter every day, and that it's getting lighter.

Today, I got a box of spring. It had several issue of Maple Street Press Twins 2010 Annual. Anything baseballish in February is reason enough to get excited, but I'm especially excited about this because the 128 pages of content were provided by TwinsCentric and various independent baseball writers here in the Twin Cities. Just so you know what you're getting into, here's the stories you'll be able to find:

The Team Section

• Player Profiles by TwinsCentric - Each page and player has so much information, your eyes will bleed. And they ain't sugar-coated.
  
• A Division for the Taking by TwinsCentric - A candid and irreverent review of all the teams we've learned to hate in the AL Central.
  
• On the Defensive by Phil Mackey - The Twins defense is analyzed and Mackey concludes that it has slipped considerably over the last couple of years.
  
• Talkin Twins with Gardy by Darren Wolfson - A six-page interview with manager Ron Gardenhire about 2009 and the offseason.
• No Regrets by Phil Miller - Miller was the Pioneer Press beat reporter during the Johan Santana trade scramble, and he recalls the pressures that were applied and the decisions that were made.
• Spanning the Outfield by Alex Halsted - Denard Span talks candidly about the disappointment he felt at the beginning of the 2009 season and how Twins players mentor each other.
• The "Little Things" by Adam V. Peterson - Does the Twins reputation for playing fundamental baseball translate into more wins?
• The Travails of an Aging Right Fielder by Dan Wade - Michael Cuddyer had a huge year in 2009, but what does that mean for his future with the Twins?
• No Money, No Problem by Andrew Kneeland - Kneeland looks behind the scenes at how a "small-market" team can remain competitive.
• Power Surge by Nick Nelson - Nelson looks at the breakthrough years by Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer.
• An Industry Leader by Parker Hageman - Hageman looks at the ups and down that Joe Nathan experience in 2009 and what it means for 2010.
• Retrospect 2001 by Seth Stohs - Stohs revisits the decision to draft Mauer over Mark Prior and how it played out.

Stadium Section

• Built for Baseball by Howard Sinker - Complete with gorgeous pictures, Sinker looks at Target Field
• Between a Rock and a Home Plate by Judd Spicer - Everything you ever want to know about the Minnesota-quarried rock that adorns the new ballpark.
• Magic and Money by John Bonnes - Thirteen small-market teams have opened new stadiums in the last 20 years. I look at how they spent their new-found booty.

Minor League Section

• Strength in Numbers by Seth Stohs - Stohs gives a comprehensive look at the depth in the minors, position by position.
• An International Focus by Josh Johnson - The Twins organization broke through in their signing of international prospects last year.
• Class of 2009 Primer by Seth Stohs - Stohs reviews the Twins 2009 draft, pick by pick and talks about their future.

History Section

• A Long History by Stew Thornley - Thornley reviews Minnesota baseball history before the arrival of the Twins, and how the Twins time in Minnesota began.
• Popping Champagne - and Each Other by Jim Thielman - The feisty Twins of the late 60s may be best understood from the vantage point of manager Billy Martin's fight with his own starting pitcher.
• A Common Vision by Arne Christensen - An interview with Mike Pagliarulo touches on the spirit of the 1991 World Series Champs.

In the letter from the editor I wrote:

"The Twins sport a population of independent baseball writers that other fan bases envy for the quality and passion."

I think you'll see that in the Annual, and that the community can support something this ambitious. I'm proud of that, and I think anyone who supports these writers can be too.

You can learn more about the Annual (and order it) here. Or look for it on newstands and magazine racks throughout Twins territory. I hope it brings you a little bit of spring.

The Return of Frenchy

I have a good friend who has referred to Jacque Jones as "Frenchy" for his entire baseball career. That's one of the reasons I smiled when I heard the Twins signed Jones yesterday to a minor-league contract. But it's not the only reason.

For starters, I just like bringing back one of those Twins from the Tom Kelly era. And I like Jones considerably more than, say, Rich Becker.

Another reason is that way back in the day I used to harp annually about how Jones should be shopped around as a center fielder. Remember, he was a center fielder in his first few years with the Twins. He wasn't bumped because he couldn't play there, or because his defense was poor. He was bumped because the Twins had Torii Hunter.

In my mind, the Twins consistently failed to leverage Jones' value as a center fielder in a trade. He was used as an average corner outfielder, but would have been well-above average offensively as a center fielder. That should have had real value for some other aggressive front office. Jones could have been Franklin Gutierrez, without the extreme defensive chops.

It sounds like the Twins will be seeing if he can still play there, judging by the timing of the announcement. Yesterday we also found out that the Twins had lost Jason Pridie on waivers. They had to put Pridie on waivers to drop him from the 40-man roster in order to make space for recent signee Orlando Hudson.

There was a fair amount of debate locally on who would be dropped from the 40-man roster for Hudson, but I never saw anyone suggest it might be Pridie. After all, he was the only real option to back up Denard Span in center field heading into spring training. Now that designation seemingly falls on Jones shoulders.

Is another move coming to get a "true" center fielder, ala Endy Chavez or Wily Tavarez? No, probably not. If the Twins sign a 5th outfielder to a major league contract they have the same problem now that they had with Hudson - they need to find a spot on the 40-man roster. Their moves indicate they are now limited to offering minor-league contracts, like they did with Jacque Jones.

Which means if I'm the agent with a defensively-gifted minor league center fielder, I'm calling Bill Smith TODAY about a minor-league deal for my guy. Maybe Jones can handle center field. After all, he posted above average defense in center field for the Cubs as recently as 2007. But if Jacque can't, there aren't a lot of other options for the Twins.

Span needs a backup. And with Delmon Young in left field, Jason Kubel likely to get a fair amount of starts in one of the corners, and Cuddyer's shaky range last year there could be PLENTY of reasons for a defensive substitute late in games. On an otherwise loaded Twins roster, there is still a very real need there.

That might be best-handled with an offensively challenged rangy centerfielder, who are supposedly a dime-a-dozen in the minors. We'll see if an older ex-Twins can still handle it. And whether my friend is again ready to kvetch about Frenchy.

The Long Road to Hudson

I'm supposed to be writing about Orlando Hudson on this blog today, given reports that he's all but signed with the Twins. But what do you write about a guy who you've covered from just about every angle over the last few months?

The answer, of course, is that you write about how much you've been writing about him. This has extra benefits in that:

a) it's basically phoning in a story and
b) I get to remember stories I had completely forgotten about.

So let's go back a little over a year and see where this path started....

October 1st, 2008 - In the Minnesota Twins GM Cheat Sheet, I pointed out that Orlando Hudson was the top second baseman on the market. Remember, this was last year. It says something about how deep this year's second base free agency class was that last year Hudson was clearly the top guy available and this year he's middle of the pack.

You can see why he held out for more money this year. He really did get screwed over last year when he didn't take arbitration from the Diamondbacks. I estimated he would make $44 million over four years in that story. Instead, if this is a $5 million deal he'll make $13 million over two of those years instead. I know I'd be a little bitter.

October 21st, 2008 - Three weeks later in Procrastinatory Notes I cited Hudson as an example of how difficult it was going to be to get any kind of upgrade in the infield. Eventually the Twins settled for Joe Crede.

July 19th, 2009 - The Twins signed Mark Grudzielanek a couple of weeks before the trade deadline, and I wrote about it in The Grudzielanek Twist. Hudson was mentioned as an example of how difficult it was for second basemen to get a job last offseason.

October 27th, 2009 - At the beginning of this offseason I acknowledged my Polanco Crush. I reprinted my excerpt from the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook where I mentioned Hudson as one of a handful or desirable options the Twins could pick up for second base.

November 5th, 2009 - A week later, I mourned the loss of Akinori Iwamura (who I still believe the Twins almost traded for. But I pointed out to the Geek Chorus in Silver Linings that there were lots of better options freely available, including Hudson.

November 10th, 2009 - While many folks were writing off Hudson as unavailable because he was going to be a Type A free agent, I talked about pendulums and suggested he could still be an option because he should not be offered arbitration.

November 12th, 2009 - In a longer story about the other Orlando, I noted at the end that it was looking increasingly unlikely that the Dodgers would offer arbitration to Hudson.

December 23rd, 2009 - Twins fans were tired of waiting for a move to be made, and so I compared the offseason to an ebay auction. I stated that the only way the Twins were going to end up with Hudson at that time was to overpay for him, and that the Twins were playing this the right way.

January 12th, 2010 - Two weeks later, as the free agent field narrowed, we started Watching Washington, who was making overtures to Hudson and Adam Kennedy. I also started to worry that this was going to be a wasted opportunity.

January 27th, 2010 - Two weeks later I was plenty worried. So I locked and loaded a story outline if the Twins came up empty at second base.

January 28th, 2010 - And the next day, I Touched Base with Second Base, reexamining Hudson and Felipe Lopez, and added Orlando Cabrera to the list of acceptable options. I noted that neither Hudson or Lopez were perfect players, but either was close to a perfect fit for the Twins.

Which takes us to today. Hopefully the long road to Hudson will finally be complete, and he'll end up being worth the journey.

The Ten-Year Solution

Ten years? Ten? Ala ARod? Gulp.

There have been rumors of a 10-year contract with Joe Mauer for weeks now, and it gained steam recently with Mark Rosen's report that a 10-year framework was in place.

Ten years is tough to swallow for anyone but the blindest fans. I'll admit, at first that number caught me off guard to the point where I was ready to write about it being irresponsible. And there is plenty of internet and radio chatter about whether the Twins can commit that long of a contract to a catcher. After a little examination, I've found two points that temper my concerns:

1) Mauer would likely get that long of a contract on the open market anyways, and probably for more money. Or at least he would if the Yankees were involved.

Over the previous two offseasons, the Yankees signed:

• a 28-year-old (Mark Teixeira) to a 9-year deal worth $22.5M per year and



• a 32-year-old (Alex Rodriguez) to a 10-year deal worth $27.5M per year

Mauer would be just 27 years old and certainly in that class of players. Plus, think about the environment those deals were made in. Mauer is likely to be even more coveted by other teams (like the Red Sox or Mets) than Teixeira was, given that he plays catcher. And the Yankees gave that contract to ARod without there being any chatter of any other competing teams.

Would a 10-year deal for $250 million be out of the question? Probably not. And if the expectations of a $20 million per year deal are accurate, it would look like a bargain.

The easy rebuttal is that he's a catcher, and catchers break down. You can give those deals to non-catchers, but not to catchers. Which brings us to the next point...

2) Even if he moves from catcher, Mauer's bat plays anywhere.

Does moving him from catcher decrease his value? Absolutely. But if he needs to move to any position other than first base or designated hitter, he's still not a payroll drain. For instance, if he moves to second base ala Craig Biggio, he's basically Chase Utley. If he moves to third, he's a step below Rodriguez.

And he's enough of an athlete that he should be able to move to those spots. He's not your prototypical paunchy catcher. You're talking about a guy that turned down the quaterback job at Florida State to sign with the Twins. He won't play centerfield or shortstop, but that's about where the limitations end.

So the 10-year deal, while a little shocking, isn't crazy. In fact, I suspect his side will want opt-out clauses lest the recession ends and payrolls go crazy. For the Twins, it's certainly a risk. But rarely do winners win without taking a risk.

So gulp hard and press on.