Who Woulda Thunk It?

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There’s been a lot of talk on this blog and others in the last few weeks about the status of Ron Gardenhire, and whether the Twins’ struggles have him on the hot seat with Terry Ryan. Opinions seem to range widely, all the way from “he’s been useless from the beginning, and the Twins won those three straight division titles in spite of him, not because of him” to “leave the poor guy alone, Terry Ryan screwed him with his offseason moves, and besides, there’s nothing wrong with managing by instinct.”

There are even a few people prowling the discussion boards (and TwinsGeek’s comments section) insisting that, while a few gentle second-guesses might be all right, Twins fans are shaming themselves when they become noticeably frustrated over the judgment of the manager of Our Only Base Ball Team. (This seems like an odd line of reasoning to Intern Sam, mainly because the sports blogosphere is not exactly known for employing a “We’ve Got Spirit, Yes We Do!” style of fan engagement, so it would seem odd for anyone who prefers simply to root, root, root and ignore the gaffes to even be reading the blogs in the first place. But to each his own…)

The fact is, though, it can be awfully hard to judge the performance of a manager from an outsider’s perspective, since most of the moves he makes in a given season aren’t quantifiable in any useful way. To sit down and separate out just how much of the blame for the Twins’ disappointing first half should be laid at Gardenhire’s feet is an impossible task given the statistical tools currently available to us. After all, Gardenhire doesn’t select the players on his team (as has become blindingly obvious in the last week or so,) so can he be held even partially responsible for the struggles of Rondell White, Tony Batista, and Brad Radke? Possibly, but we don’t know for sure.

What infuriates many Twins fans is really Gardenhire’s apparent unwillingness to see the game the way we, the fans, see the game, and to react accordingly. That’s not to say that he’s right and we’re wrong (or vice versa,) just an attempt to put the whole situation in some kind of perspective. (All that having been said, Intern Sam still comes down most frequently on the side of those who say that the Twins could do better than Ron Gardenhire, but he isn’t foaming at the mouth about it.)

Still and all, the Twins remain a club divided against itself, not in the sense of team chemistry, but in the sense that there are now clearly two sets of 2006 Twins: the good ones and the bad ones. We all know who belongs in what set, and it’s up to Terry Ryan to decide, for instance, how much longer Rondell White will be allowed to continue wasting a spot on the roster. But when a season goes south as soon as this one did, with a core of players as talented as the Twins have, there is always a temptation to chalk the whole thing up to bad luck and bad timing. After all, no one dreamed that White, always a steady near-.300 hitter, would have the meltdown of his career the minute he stepped inside the Dome, right? And Carlos Silva? Who would have imagined, after last season, that Silva would be the first guy yanked from the rotation?

Well, as it happens, there are a number of prominent statgeeks who have waded into the nasty business of player performance projection in the last few years, and this weekend, as Intern Sam relaxed in the Upper Club at the Dome, secure in the knowledge that at least Francisco Liriano is bulletproof, he began wondering how much of the current Twin misery was actually foretold by the so-called experts. To answer the question, we’ll turn to arguably the two most well-respected sabermetric publications in the biz: Baseball Prospectus, and The Bill James Handbook, both published annually. The authors of these tomes are not exactly colleagues (and anecdotal evidence suggests that they don’t always play well together,) but that should only help us, in that we’ll be looking at two independently reached conclusions.

Here’s how we’ll do it: below, I’ve listed the six regular players and starting pitchers who constitute the core of the Bad Twins team, along with their 2006 stats through June 11. Listed alongside are the 2006 projections for each player from the 2006 editions of both the Bill James and BP annuals. (One exception: since both annuals were sent to press before anyone knew Tony Batista would be playing in Minnesota in 2006, I’ve used the predictions from the 2005 annuals. This isn’t ideal, of course, but nothing Batista did in Japan in 2005 would have had much of an impact on his numbers, as best I can tell.)

Most of the stats are self-explanatory, but I’ll clarify two less common ones upfront. Bill James uses a stat known as “Runs Created” (RC), which purports to quantify how many of the runs a team scores over the course of a season are attributable directly to that player. I won’t go into the math here, but this is a fairly well respected (if limited) statistic, and it was from the RC stat that James eventually crafted his far more complex (and controversial) Win Shares metric.

On the Baseball Prospectus lines, Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is included as well. This is a wildly complex stat involving ballpark effects, positional variances, and the effect of the tides on Cristian Guzman’s hair, but all you need to know to get the gist is that VORP is an attempt to measure, by runs per season, how much better or worse a player is than a fictional player whose skills exactly match those of an average replacement player available to an average major league team at minimal cost. Players above zero are better than that average, those below zero are below that average. (There are people who hate this stat, partly because it implies that an average major league ballplayer is worth nothing, but I feel that this is a largely semantic argument in an arena where semantics are meaningless, so I’m using it.)

Why go through all this silliness just to tell us what we already know – namely, that a lot of Twins are underachieving this season? Quite simply, as summer swings into full gear, Intern Sam would like to know once and for all whether anyone (or everyone) should have seen the train wreck coming a mile down the tracks. Let’s have at it…

Rondell White

2006 Stats: .190/.209/.224; 0 HR; 4 BB; 29 K
James: .284/.337/.461; 19 HR; 33 BB; 79 K; 75 RC
BP: .292/.338/.463; 13 HR; 23 BB; 57 K; VORP=15.7

Okay. It’s obvious that no one thought White would be the out-making disaster that he has been. Neither projection system thought he would be as strong as he was in 2005 (when he hit .313 and with an OPS of .836) but to say that Terry Ryan should have known this pick-up wouldn’t work out is unfair. The plan was for White to stay healthy by staying out of the field, and for him to hit something like the average of his career stats, which is what both James and BP projected him to do in ‘06.

It’s worth noting that the BP annual did have White listed as a 40% chance to collapse in 2006 (in BP-speak, a collapse is a 20% or more slump in overall production,) but that’s a marginal measurement at best, and given the Twins’ needs measured against their limited budget, we can’t really blame anyone but the baseball gods for what’s happened to Rondell.

Tony Batista

2006 Stats: .236/.303/.388; 5 HR; 15 BB; 27 K
James (2005 ed.): .245/.284/.451; 30 HR; 32 BB; 90 K; 75 RC
BP: .253/.301/.428; 18 HR; 31 BB; 76 K; VORP=4.5

This is a bit tougher to figure. Both projections are in the ballpark as far as batting average and on-base percentage go, but neither forecasted the power drop. Of course, as I mentioned, these numbers are intended for the 2005 season, which Batista spent in Japan. I wish we had fresher numbers to choose from, since I suspect both models would have docked Batista considerably for having not seen major league caliber pitching in 18 months.

It’s worth noting that while Bill James sees White and Batista as equals as far as creating runs, BP’s VORP ranks Batista as barely better than its imaginary replacement player. Subtract the homers, and he’s surely well below average. So should we have seen this coming? Well. We did, didn’t we? This was the most controversial move Terry Ryan made in the offseason, and in this case, it appears that the fans were right, and the GM goofed.

Juan Castro

2006 Stats: .234/.261/.312; 1 HR; 6 BB; 22 K
James: .241/.277/.355; 7 HR; 19 BB; 64 K; 38 RC
BP: .255/.287/.379; 4 HR; 9 BB; 32 K; VORP=1.0

The experts had it nailed here. Castro is basically your textbook replacement player, and nothing in his career prior to 2006 suggested that he would be even remotely useful as an everyday shortstop. It’s worth noting that both annuals made their predictions assuming that Castro wouldn’t be an everyday shortstop in 2006, because of course, the Twins had…

Jason Bartlett

2006 Stats (AAA): .306/.328/.445; 1 HR; 8 BB; 26 K
James: .273/.343/.386; 7 HR; 47 BB; 67 K; 61 RC
BP: .271/.340/.394; 7 HR; 38 BB; 61 K; VORP=17.3

Now, on the surface, this may not look like a huge deal, numbers-wise. After all, even if the Bartlett predictions were dead on the money, it’s not like the Twins decided to replace Derek Jeter with Cristian Guzman when they kept Castro and demoted Bartlett to Rochester. But the truth of the matter is that Bartlett is 26, and the Twins need to find out if he can be their everyday shortstop of the future before he either gets frustrated and quits, or gets so old that he loses all trade value. Furthermore, there’s just no quantifiable reason for anyone on the Twins to have actually thought that Castro would put up better numbers.

Defense, you say? Baseball Prospectus’s rankings, which take both range and accuracy into account, say that Bartlett is three times the defensive shortstop Castro is. (The fact that he made a few errors last year is countered by his clearly superior range in the field. The laser-like focus on occasional errors to the exclusion of all else is the same kind of backwards attitude that causes Dick and Bert to spend hours extolling the ability of Tony Batista to consistently make good plays on “balls hit to him,” ignoring the obvious fact that he has a total range of about four feet to either side and is therefore a defensive liability.)

The bottom line here is that someone (Gardenhire?) clearly has a problem with Jason Bartlett that has nothing to do with his game, and no one is saying what it is. We’ll probably never know, but just for the sake of history, let’s not forget that the last time a Twins manager ran a middle infielder out of the organization because he just didn’t like the cut of his jib, we got five years of Luis Rivas while Todd Walker batted .291 and thumbed his nose from afar. And if that’s not enough to convince you that Castro over Bartlett is an error of serious proportions, consider this: in Baseball Prospectus’s list of player comparables, Bartlett is listed as being somewhat comparable to Jerry Hairston. Castro is Billy Ripken.

Brad Radke

2006 Stats: 4-7, 6.17 ERA; 22 BB; 38 K
James: 10-10, 3.87 ERA; 28 BB; 108 K
BP: 11-10, 4.17 ERA; 28 BB; 104 K

Look, we all love Bradke. He’s been a workhorse for as long as most of us can remember, and Lord knows, he was good when practically no one else on this team was. But listening to Twins fans talk about Radke in the offseason always makes me feel like I’m back in college in the late 1990s, listening to Cleveland Indians fans explain to me how their team was finally going to get over the hump this season while conveniently ignoring the fact that their starting staff was still anchored by Charles Nagy.

Now, no, the Indians didn’t have Johan Santana, and yes, Radke had a great year in 2004 (despite his 11-8 record,) but the numbers said fairly clearly that Radke wasn’t going to be anything special this year, and even now that he appears to have turned his season around somewhat, he’ll probably finish not too far off from what’s predicted above. And that’s the best-case scenario. Am I saying the Twins should have dumped Radke, or found a trade in the offseason? No. I’m saying that it wasn’t hard to foresee that he is no longer a legitimate #2 starter, and certainly not a useful top-flight starter for a club hoping to contend.

Carlos Silva

2006 Stats: 2-8, 7.73 ERA; 10 BB; 22 K
James: 9-10, 4.11 ERA; 27 BB; 70 K
BP: 10-11, 4.47 ERA; 28 BB; 70 K

Kyle Lohse

2006 Stats (ML only): 2-4, 9.22 ERA; 22 BB; 27 K
James: 8-13, 4.78 ERA; 47 BB; 109 K
BP: 9-10, 4.67 ERA; 42 BB; 87 K

The Baseball Prospectus crew says this far better than I ever could:

“[The Twins haven’t] really adjusted to the fact that their rotation isn’t good enough. While the Sox are making a point of improving their rotation… the Twins are playing make-believe, and continuing to crowd the rotation with the same good-enough guys who are no longer good enough. They’re hoping Brad Radke can be the pitcher he was in 2004 [and] wishcasting that Kyle Lohse might build on his 2003, instead of recognizing that was a good year from a fourth starter… And in doing so, they’ve crowded out their pitchers with real up-side, making only a single rotation slot open to Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, J.D. Durbin, and perhaps Boof Bonser.”

That’s kind of the 2006 season in a nutshell, isn’t it? The fact that it was written sometime in January just makes it all the more depressing. Because if the question is whether anyone in the Twins’ brain trust should have known that what they had wasn’t going to be good enough to compete in this year’s Central Division, the answer, clearly, is yes. That doesn’t mean there would have been any easy answers regardless, but at least by acknowledging that the chance of contention with this team was slim to none, the front office would have freed itself to spend the year finding out who the real major league players in the system are, and preparing to contend in 2007.

Instead, they’ve clung to mediocre veterans like Castro and allowed White and Batista to continue to flail away despite knowing for a fact that none of those players will figure in the Twins’ long-term future. Meanwhile, Bartlett rots in Rochester and guys like Kubel and Baker get jerked around just when they should be getting a chance to adjust to the majors.

I know this is a buzzkill of a column, and I apologize. The Twins took two out of three from Baltimore this weekend, Joe Mauer has apparently become the God Of On-Base Percentage, Liriano and Santana continue to dazzle, and there are plenty of reasons to keep going out to the Dome this season. This isn’t a Kansas City situation- the Twins have some unbelievable talent on the major league level, and a full-scale rebuilding shouldn’t be necessary to get the club back to playoff caliber. But the current strategy of signing (and keeping) other teams’ cast-offs in the hope that they’ll be magically transformed into the Boston Red Sox isn’t working anymore. And the numbers say that someone should have known better.

Links of the Weekend

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, welcome to another edition of the Weekend Links. It’s been a busy stretch in Twins-land, so let’s get right to it.

• It was a big night last night for Justin “Don’t Call Me Curly” Morneau; two big flies, including the walk-off with two out in the bottom of the twelfth. The Chairman added three hits to his ledger, raising his MLB-leading average to .384. He’s currently at .384/.443/.542, and is not in the top five in the All-Star voting.



• And old face is popping up in the bullpen once again. Anyone that says they saw this coming is lying. Terry Ryan says that Lohse “…showed some leadership. … He showed results.” Obviously, 23 doubles do not qualify as “results.” This, on the other hand, is apparently what counts as “leadership” and “results”.



• Bob Ley has the inside scoop on baseball’s steroid problem.



• John Brattain of The Hardball Times passes judgment.



• And, finally, cursing for a cause.

Have a good weekend, kiddies.

Chairman Mauer

By Twins Geek

You can find the following in this weekend's Dugout Splinters in GameDay, the independent Twins program sold outside the Metrodome.

Oh, please - don’t play coy with me. You know you’re wondering. And if a Twins Geek isn’t here to tell you how close Joe Mauer is to hitting .400, then why, exactly, is he here?

Mauer is just seven consecutive hits away from the promised land. Or, if he gets 24 at-bats this home stand, he would need fourteen hits to scale his way to .400. Or, if he hits .500 for the foreseeable future, it will take him 42 more at-bats. Or, if he finishes the year with 500 at-bats, he’ll need to hit slightly under .414 the rest of the season to make it. So he’s still a torrid hot streak away from the cover of Time magazine.

That doesn’t mean he’s a slouch. He’s still hitting .315 for his career, which (if he had the requisite 2000 plate appearances) would be the third highest career batting average in the Twins record book, behind Rod Carew at .334 and Kirby Puckett at .318. (Fourth and fifth on the list are Shane Mack (.309) and Brian Harper (.306). Whoulda thunk?)

His patience at the plate is fast becoming legendary, too. Mauer’s career on-base percentage is currently .385, which would place him third all-time among Twins in career OBP, behind Carew (.393) and Chuck Knoblauch (.391), followed closely by another surprise – Matt Lawton, who had a career OBP of .379 as a Twin.

(I can guess what you’re thinking – where’s Tony O? Oliva’s best years were played in a decade when pitching ruled. For instance, in 1968 he hit .289 and still had the second best batting average in the American League. His career batting average was .304.)

Mauer’s also almost impossible to neutralize in a big situation. He’s as effective versus left-handed pitching (.379) as he has been against right-handed pitching (.367), so good luck to that late-inning southpaw specialist. There’s no reliable way to pitch to him. It doesn’t pay to get ahead of him, because he’s batting an amazing .393 after an 0-2 count. But that’s a better option than falling behind in the count, because he’s hitting .485 after a 2-0 count.

It’s usually about this time that someone starts to mention Mauer’s “lack of power”. That’s usually quickly followed my ears spurting blood, because this myth is getting tiresome. Mauer IS hitting for power. His .540 slugging percentage is second on the Twins (to Michael Cuddyer) and within the range of stud hitters like Vladamir Guererro (.547), Magglio Ordonez (.546) and the Twin that got away, David Ortiz (.545).

More importantly, he also just turned 23 years old a little over a month ago. Oliva didn’t hit any major league home runs until he was 25 years old, because he didn’t make it to the majors until he was 24 years old. Ditto Puckett, who had only four home runs in his first 1200 at-bats. Even Harmon Killebrew had only eleven home runs before the season in which he turned 23. Don’t let Mauer’s familiarity and youth fool you. He may not be the Killer, but he’s on pace to become every bit the power hitter Tony and Kirby were.

What you are witnessing this year happens about once a decade. This is looking a lot like Oliva in ’64, Carew in ’69 or Puckett in ’86. This is the path a breakout year takes, and a year you’re going to want to remember, so you can tell it to your kids or grandkids. So, welcome to the ballgame. Enjoy the show.

Links of the Day for 6/9/06

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Jesse over at Twinkie Town has a great entry of a number of missing Twins and where they were last seen.

A new website has appeared completely devoted to the new ball park. Be sure to check out the footprints of other stadiums and how they fit into the park’s new site.

In case your wondering about Gardy’s job security check out ESPN’s fan approval of him.

A new Twin community has developed: The Scrrappiest® Twins Fans on the Intraweb. It has two blogs, one devoted to the minors and the other to the majors written by very capable fellows. There is also an extensive forum, with albeit, some raucous posters.

Mainstream Power Rankings: Espn.com has us at 19th, Sportsline.com has us at 22nd, Foxsports has us at 23rd, and Sportsillustrated.com has at 22nd, for 86 points, which wouldn’t even win a basketball game.

Links of the Day for 6/7/06

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No love for Mauer

MLB.com posted the tallies to date for the AL all-star line-up. Major league batting leader Joe Mauer is not even in the top five for catchers. Baseball fans are exercising their right to vote, and are apparently not the most informed voters.

Superstar Twins' blogger Aaron Gleeman put together an excellent analysis of the Twins' 2006 draft. He's impressed with the Twin's actually drafting some bats. Hopefully they aren't all re-positioned to relief pitchers.

For more great analysis on the draft, check out Wednesday's article on Sethspeaks.

In other news, Luis Castillo has been moved to the lead-off spot. Maybe Gardy will let him swing away once and awhile.

Links of the Day for 6/7/06

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Draft Day: With the 20th pick, the Twins selected Christopher Parmelee, a sweet-swinging lefty OF from California. The Nationals swooped in and nabbed coveted 3B Chris Marrero with the 15th pick, leaving the Twins to pluck another pure hitter from the lot. 18 other ball players were awarded new Twin status. Granted, the odds of seeing a handful of these lads suit up in the Bigs is a longshot. But the draft springs eternal hope that the next diamond in the rough is unearthed. Of merit: Devin Shepherd won MVP honors of the Aflac All-American game last year. Jared Mitchell, an LSU football recruit, was described by Twins’ scouts as “the best athlete in the draft.” Jeff Manship, an anchor on Notre Dame’s strong staff, wore the right number for the Irish. And what’s a draft without a couple of home grown talents: Mark Dolenc, an MSU, Mankato product and Aaron Senne, a Rochester Mayo H.S. outfielder recently named Gatorade High School Player of the Year for Minnesota.

The Art of Fielding: The NY Times offers a praise-laden piece on Torii Hunter, centerfielder extraordinaire. Author Lee Jenkins gives a fantastic glimpse into how Hunter assumes his Spiderman role, combining pure instinct with a studious approach. My only beef is why would the NY Times be focusing on such a slant if not to plant the incendiary seed of thought into Steinbrenner and those Bronx bastards that Hunter’s services could be had come July. You don’t see the STrib hyping the merits of Melky Cabrera, do you?

Some Chitown Love: As Joe Mauer’s bat stays red hot (4-4 last night), the baseball world is quickly taking notice of Minnesota’s hottest commodity (and it’s not a lefty flame-throwing starter by the name of Johan or Francisco). Phil Rogers lauded Mauer (registration required)over the weekend, contemplating the prospect of the next catcher to take home a batting title. With a consistent bat finally dropping anchor in the middle of the lineup, it’s time for the rest of the Twins bats to follow suit and help the pitchers out.

Don’t Know Much About History: I’ll throw a bone to the stat heads amongst us (myself included). In case you missed the significance of that bizarre and downright dastardly triple play against the ChiSox three weeks back, Jayson Stark did some research to tell us:

“That triple play the White Sox pulled off May 14 was more than just the first TP of the year…it was the first 3-4-6 trifecta turned by any team in nearly a century…Who knew?”

Links of the Day for 6/6/06

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It’s been so long since last we met and a lot has certainly transpired. Scott Baker’s been sent to AAA and Terry Tiffee has replaced him, the Twins’ offense has faltered and Brad Radke has remembered how to be a decent pitcher. The more things change, however, the more they stay the same—Johan is still dominant, Mauer is still raking the ball and the Twins are still mediocre despite those two. So what is a Twins fan to do? The answer, my friends, is simple—focus on the draft. Juan Castro can’t cause you to hurt yourself there.

• To that end, SportsIllustrated.com has a comprehensive look at the amateur draft tomorrow, with a mock draft and, for you cheaper sabermatricians amongst us, a free rundown of which type of prospects are most likely to pan out by Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus.com. If you’re curious, the mock draft has the Twins taking Chris Marrero, a third baseman from Monsignor Pace (Fla.) High with the twentieth overall pick. Hopefully, his “rare blend of baseball savvy and premium tools” can get him to the Show quickly so we can forget about the time we lost watching Tony “the Beer League Reject” Batista “man” the hot corner.



• Even if he does make it as quickly as Ryan Zimmerman, I don’t think it will matter who the Twins draft this year if the coaching staff remains the same. Gardenhire’s inexplicable ability to ruin prospects is just one of many reasons he needs to be canned before the Twins can be successful. If you want the rest, Aaron Gleeman and his commentors have compiled a pretty comprehensive list. And, if for no other reason, Gardenhire’s bi-weekly temper tantrums should be enough to convince the savvy Twins fan it’s time to find someone else.



• Finally, if the Twins manage to manufacture another loss out of a Liriano or Santana gem with bone headed base running, awful fielding and pathetic hitting, join me in my happy place. And if you haven’t felt the joy of opening a pack of cards in a long time, well, there’s always ebay.

Links of the Day for 6/5/06

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Welcome back, Geek fans! John’s had a week to soak in the Disneyfied goodness of Orlando with his brood, and the rest of us… well, the rest of us have had yet another seven days to contemplate what it is like to suddenly find ourselves the devoted fans of a mediocre baseball team. Not a bad team, you understand, and certainly not a good one. The 2006 Twins are just kind of… there. They win some, they lose some, they thrill on occasion, and frustrate more often than not.

This is an unfamiliar position for Twins fans, since over the past couple of decades, our club has tended to be either horrific or playoff-worthy, and has spent little time wallowing in the marsh of in-between. It’s easy to know how to react to a horrendous team, and rooting for one over a long period of time can even be cathartic. (Right, Cubs fans?) But following a team loaded down with talent that still always manages to be three or four moves from serious contention is hard work.

And baseball isn’t supposed to be hard work. It’s supposed to be fun. It’s fun to root for winners, and it’s even fun to be a part of a large group of people dedicated to rooting for a hopeless franchise. But rooting for mediocrity? That’s the definition of drudgery, and if you don’t believe me, go ask an Orioles fan. Or a Blue Jays fan. Or a Dodgers fan, or a Rangers fan, or (until quite recently) a White Sox fan.

Still, if there’s a bright side to this already-lost season, it’s that the hot stove never quits jumping. Since the Twins have zero chance of elevating themselves to a division title or wild card this year, we can just start all the offseason speculation right this very minute…

• Apparently, we’re still talking about moving Joe Mauer to third base. Which makes perfect sense, because after all, his 2006 campaign has been a complete disappointment, and we really all need to pitch in and find a way to lift him out of this horrible rut he’s been in. (For those readers already firing off protest comments – yes, Intern Sam realizes that Reusse’s column is technically about not moving Mauer to third. This is an old writers’ trick. If you can’t justify bringing up a controversial move, bring it up by writing about how everyone’s denying it. One actually wonders whether Reusse has been deluged lately with mail from semi-retarded Twins fans terrified that Super Joe is on the verge of another crippling injury. Because if he hasn’t been, there’s really no reason for this column to have been written.)



• In what may (or may not) be the first public sign of a fraying of the relationship between Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire, the former overruled the latter’s request as to who should replace Scott Baker on the major league roster this week, even though Gardenhire had already told the press that Shawn Wooten would be getting the call. Gardenhire has been griping for weeks about not having a third catcher, because he claims to be terrified of what would happen if he were to DH Mauer, and then have Mike Redmond suffer an injury behind the plate.
  
  (What would happen, of course, is that Mauer would move to catcher, and the Twins would be forced to allow the pitchers to bat for the remainder of that one game. Somehow, this doesn’t seem an apocalyptic enough scenario as to demand the addition of a sub-replacement-level utility man batting .218 with 4 HR and 17 RBI in the minors.) Ignoring Gardy’s pleas, Ryan instead promoted Terry Tiffee. Again. Because clearly, there wasn’t anyone else at Rochester whose performance was crying out for promotion to the big club…



• Anyway, the whole Wooten debacle apparently sent Gardy right round the bend, the result of which may well be: Justin Morneau, catcher. Yes, the big Canuck was originally drafted as a catcher, but seriously, we are talking about the most mentally and physically taxing position on the diamond here, and when managers start thinking that just anyone can throw on some extra padding and hit the squats, well… that’s when stuff like this happens.



• The Twins blogosphere is always quick to blame Gardenhire for the team’s shortcomings, and to be fair, the cuddly old fella does frequently seem to be managing with The Force rather than his head. But the cries to dump Gardy have gotten exponentially louder in recent weeks, and last Thursday, Aaron decided it was time to start laying out the official indictment.



• In yet another feel-good story involving the Grand Dark Imperial Ruler Of The Pasttime, Bud Selig, contraction is now apparently off the table for 2007! (fourth item in the column) By a shocking coincidence, the announcement comes mere days after the Twins and Royals got new ballparks (or, in the case of Kansas City, major renovations to an existing park) approved. See how everything just works out when you do as you’re told? A copy of the story was immediately sent from Selig’s office to the mayor of Miami, along with a friendly handwritten note and a Polaroid of a large string of gutted fish.



• In happier news, someone is apparently stalking Bob Uecker. Sadly, it does not appear that Mr. Belvedere is even peripherally involved.

Back Up Backstops

by Twins Geek

The following is in the Dugout Splinters this weekend. It's also the only post this week, since John will be unable to access the internet again until June 3rd.

It’s becoming a weekly tradition. The Ron Gardenhire Show starts, and so does the berating of the manager for how he uses his catchers. There are two complaints from callers, and they are completely at odds with each other.

Lars from Mendota wants to know why Joe Mauer wasn’t in the lineup last night. Ron patiently explains again that catchers often don’t catch a night game followed by a day game, because otherwise, they break. Then Jorgi calls from Warroad and wants to know if Mike Redmond can see more playing time, because he’s swinging the bat pretty good, donchaknow. Ron praises Redmond’s production and says how much the Twins value him and how he loves Redmond’s makeup. He also tactfully refrains from mentioning the career total of twelve home runs in nine major league seasons.

Obviously, both callers are missing the bigger picture concerning Mauer’s health and Redmond’s career. But this weekend, when you’re watching Mike Redmond bat from the #3 spot, you might ask yourself, why isn’t the Twins most professional hitter in the lineup at designated hitter?

There is a reason. If Redmond gets hurt, Mauer would have to move from designated hitter to catcher. In the American League, when a player is moved from DH to the field, the team loses their DH, so the pitcher must bat in his place. Which is, obviously, not something a manager wants to deal with. But for a 162-game season, does that strategy make sense?

Consider that Mike Redmond will start about 30 games this year. If Mauer was allowed to DH for a chunk of those, he get about 100 more at-bats that would otherwise be taken by Rondell White. That’s 100 at-bats over the course of a season where Mauer is still batting third while Redmond is essentially replacing White in the batting order. That’s the upside.

The downside? If Redmond gets hurt, the manager might need to make a double-switch, or pinch hit for a reliever, or pull his starting pitcher an inning early, or even (gasp) allow a pitcher to bat. This will affect two to three at-bats. In short, the manager would have to, um, manage for about half a game. One would think Gardenhire, who played in the National League, might relish that opportunity.

For most teams, this strategy isn’t a good idea, because for most teams, replacing their designated hitter with their catcher doesn’t make any sense. But until White is straightened out or replaced, it’s worth considering for the Twins. Even if it does make Lars and Jorge feel justified in their tirades.

Dugout Splinters

by Twins Geek

From this weekend's Dugout Splinters in GameDay

Seattle - What’s Working

The Meeting A week ago, the buzzards were circling. There was open speculation in the Seattle Times that General Manager Bill Bavasi or Manager Mike Hargrove would soon be fired. The Mariners had just been swept by division foe Oakland, and so a 57-minute closed door meeting was called. Pitcher Jamie Moyer called it “one of the best I've ever been in on”, and judging by the results, he’s right. The Mariners won four straight games after the meeting, and have gone 5-2 since.

The Icon Right-fielder Ichiro Suzuki continues to be the most recognizable Mariner, so it’s easy to forget that the Mariners were a pretty successful team before he arrived. In 2000, when Jay “Bone” Buhner was still playing right field for the Mariners, they finished 91-71 and lost to the Yankees in the playoffs. In Ichiro’s first year, the Mariners improved to 116 wins, but still lost to the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.

The debate rages on as to whether Ichiro is overrated. On the one hand, there aren’t too many teams that couldn’t use a leadoff hitter with a career on-base percentage (OBP) of .377 and an average of 38 stolen bases per season. On the other hand, to compare Suzuki to the premier players in the league like Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez ignores the power of, um, power.

So he’s great, but not elite, unless you’re talking about his entertainment value. The free swinging, slap hitting, remarkable speed, and the cannon arm are each worth the price of admission. His 2001 MVP award may not accurately reflect his contribution that year, but you can’t blame voters for getting carried away a bit when they first saw his game. He’s a hell of a lot of fun to watch.

The New Import This offseason, the Mariners signed Kenji Johjima, who was regarded as the best catcher (and one of the best power hitters) in Japan to a three-year contract. Not too surprisingly, his 30 home run seasons haven’t translated in the majors (especially playing in spacious Safeco park) but hitting .275 with five home runs has earned him rookie-of-the-year attention. However, he’s recently started to be criticized for the performance of the Mariners pitching staff. In particular, scouts are wondering if he’s calling for enough fastballs, a pitch which is used less often in Japan.

Breakthrough Want to see the numerical progression for a breakthrough player? It’s 2, 8, 23, 29, 36, 51, 54, 76, 82. That’s the percentage of fantasy baseball owners on commissioner.com that started Jose Lopez on their squad each week since the beginning of the year. The 23-year-old, after a couple of years of part time duty, is blossoming the way Twins fans hoped Luis Rivas would. He’s hitting .302 (previous career average was .239) and has already hit seven home runs (which doubles his career output). He’s a rare success story for a franchise that has bought what little success it’s had.

Minnesota - I Don’t Know is on Third

So, let me get this straight. Tony Batista, a 32-year-old free swinger who last played in the majors in 2004 when he slugged .455, returns to the big leagues and slugs .404, and fans are disappointed? Who did they think we were getting, Roy Hobbs?

But it isn’t the fans’ expectations that are the problem, it’s the team’s. One can argue that based on the timing of the signing, the amount of the contract, and the inclusion of a spring training out-clause, that the Twins recognized that he was a gamble and a temporary solution at best.

One could also argue that at some point those expectations changed, because they left themselves without any sort of backup plan. How else does one explain passing on Corey Koskie when the Blue Jays were willing to ship him and $7+ million for a bucket of warm spit? How else do you explain the Twins refusing to have Michael Cuddyer (who, by the way, leads the team in slugging at .566) spend any time at third base during spring training, despite starting there last year?

Which leaves the backup options of Luis Rodriguez (.379 career slugging %), Terry Tiffee (slugging .379 in AAA ), and Glenn Williams (slugging .337 in AAA). Unless fans are ready to embrace Matt Moses, the 2003 first round draft pick who is playing in AA-New Britain, they had better start rooting for Batista to defy any sort of reasonable destiny - or adjust their expectations.

Links of the Day for 5/25/06

by Intern Snarky

The Twins stadium bill is expected to be signed Friday at the Metrodome. Is it just me or does this seem a little like using your girl/boyfriend's phone to ask someone else out?

On June 1st, a number of "Greet Machiners" are holding a New Ballpark Celebration at Summit Brewing. There will be free root beer for the kids and there will be a special guest appearance by TC bear! They had me at free beer.

The mood about the new ball park seems to be less than enthusiastic in the rest of the blogosphere. Recent postings by Frightwig, Maury Brown , John Brattain and Brian Broawski provide some evidence of this malcontent. Where's the contrarian bias when we need it?

Kelly Thesier wrote an article about how Torrii is abandoning his free-swinging ways this season. I, for one, am not getting my hopes up. This reminds me an awful lot of some talk last year about another free-swinger (Jacque Jones), and we know how that turned out.

Trading Up

by Twins Geek

The following is from the Dugout Splinters in GameDay for the current series against Cleveland.

They were officially roster moves, but they might be better evaluated as trades. Try it. Imagine the Twins trading Carlos Silva for a young left-handed fireballer who nearly everyone agreed could be the next Johan Santana. Or that the Twins had traded Kyle Lohse for a 24-year-old right-hander who was dominating AAA in both ERA and strikeouts. Both would be both be viewed as phenomenal trades, to the point of being unrealistic, because no major league GM would likely touch the other half of those deals.

It’s probably a good idea to lower expectations a little, especially for Boof Bonser. It was a great first start, but Bonser is not the prospect that Liriano is. In some ways, Bonser is a star that has fallen and is rising again. He was highly prized in the Giants farm system, and was a top 50 prospect as a 20-year-old. In fact, he first reached AAA as a 21-year-old in 2003. It took him three years to graduate to the majors, though in most organizations last year’s performance (including leading the AAA International League in strikeouts) would have earned him a ticket to the majors earlier. His ceiling is the pitcher we hoped Lohse could become – a solid #3 starter who has a couple years where he performs at a higher level.

Francisco Liriano is totally different. He was available because he had been hurt a lot during his career with the Giants. In fact, from 2001 through 2003, he pitched a total of 159 innings for the Giants. Right now, that’s the only thing that looks like it can stop him from stardom. His first year with the Twins, he raced through High A ball and into AA ball. His second year, he sped from AA through AAA to the majors. And this year he overcame expectations that he would start the year in AAA, dominated in the bullpen, and is now replacing the Twins #3 starter in the rotation. And throughout that professional career, he’s struck out more than a batter per inning. Every time. This guy can be a monster.

If Liriano, Bonser and Scott Baker pan out, the Twins are going to face a new challenge – they might need to learn how to spend money on hitters. Even during their recent run of division championships, the first priority for payroll was starting pitching. Whether it has been agreeing to long term, big dollar contracts with Brad Radke, Eric Milton and Joe Mays or taking on ludicrous big money contracts like that of Rick Reed, Terry Ryan has never shied away from earmarking up to 50% of his payroll for five starting pitchers.

Having all that money available to spend on hitting may not be great news. For all of Ryan’s strengths, he hasn’t had much success in identifying high value offensive players. The Twins have given into the temptation to sign their own mediocrities like Cristian Guzman, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Jacque Jones to multi-year contracts. They’ve never been rumored to be chasing any of the real impact players that might be available in an offseason. Their chosen free agents, whether it has been Juan Castro, Tony Batista or Rondell White, just haven’t produced.

The money will come in handy for paying some of the Twins better young players. Joe Mauer starts getting legitimately expensive next year, in his first year of arbitration. Michael Cuddyer’s production will cost the Twins a couple million dollars extra next year, and if things break right for Justin Morneau, he’ll get a few million dollars raise.

That’s a nice core, especially if Jason Kubel starts to show he belongs this week. It would also be nice if they could shake their man-crush over Castro and give Jason Bartlett a chance to claim shortstop through the end of the decade. But for the Twins to challenge for a division title again, they’re going to have to fill holes like they attempted to do this offseason, only they’re going to need to do a better job. That’s going to require a different financial philosophy and a different mindset than they displayed in the first half of this decade. That’s a trade they might struggle to make.

Links of the Day for 5/23/06

Powered by Intern Thomas

Finally, a weekend of happiness and light for me to find links about (well, aside from Jessie Crain’s meltdown, but that’s a trivial thing). As, I’m sure, you all know, the Twins are getting a new park. And it’s going to have grass and public transportation, and revenue and everything a real major league team that doesn’t get threatened with contraction or moving has. Of course, maybe the problem with the Twins franchise wasn’t the lack of a stadium. Maybe, just maybe, the problem with the Twins franchise was the system itself. Maybe, a system more like the English Premiership is the answer, as DM suggests over at the Nats Blog. (And here are the links for the second, third and fourth parts of the essay).

The stadium wasn’t the only happy news this weekend. First off, it seems that giving talented youngsters an opportunity when the veterans, to put it nicely, suck, can pay off. Secondly, the Twins offense had a big weekend, scoring 26 runs in the series, moving them up to eighth in the American League. Color me surprised (and mad because I had to erase a decent joke about the ineptitude of the Twins offense after I checked the stats). They’re still nowhere near an elite offensive team, partly due to the twin black holes of suck on the left side of the infield and partly due to their lack of plate discipline. Don’t be fooled, however, the next time that Mauer or Castillo ground out on the first pitch. It isn’t due to a lack of discipline. In fact, as Neutrino Boi, whom you might recognize as a frequent Batgirl commentator and member of the Twins Batcave, suggests, it’s much more likely that they just missed a good pitch.

Finally, did you see Bond’s get one step closer to Willie Mays with his 616th Home Run? Well, that’s where he should be, according to fellow Georgetown Alumnus (I became one on Saturday) Patrick Hubry. Hubry has an interesting analysis of where Bonds would be if he had stayed clean. And, surprisingly enough (it is on ESPN.com) it uses stats, science and is a well thought out piece. For another perspective, check out Tomato Nation and Sarah Bunting’s piece on why people are having such a hard time dealing with Bonds’ pursuit of the Babe (and it’s not all about steroids).

Links of the Day for 5/22/06

Powered by Intern Sam

• First things first: the Twins new ballpark is finally a reality. Whether today’s pre-dawn vote in the State Senate will become a major issue in this fall’s elections remains to be seen (and Intern Sam would like to be the first to predict that it won’t, particularly given the way the Senate vote count reads,) but the Twins will have a new park in the Warehouse District in time for Opening Day 2010. The organization is predictably ecstatic, and in the early innings of today’s game in Milwaukee, you would hardly have known that the debut of a much-heralded Twins prospect was underway, what with all the ballpark talk.



• While appearing on the Sunday afternoon Twins TV broadcast, Jerry Bell mentioned that all the drawings and sketches displayed of the new ballpark are merely preliminary, and that the actual look and specific design elements of the park are yet to be finished. So what will the park look like? Well, you can see a sampling of other sports facilities designed by HOK architects right here.



• No link here, but just a thought: what with the large amount of public financing being poured into the ballpark, does anyone else think it wouldn’t be out of line for Twins fans to mount a campaign to pressure the team to name the place Puckett Park rather than selling naming rights? Sounds like a job for the Blog Army – who wants to start?



• Two Twins rookie pitchers took their first major league swings this weekend, in Milwaukee, and the results were more than anyone could have hoped for. Francisco Liriano blooped an RBI single in his first AB on Friday, and Boof Bonser (whose birth name, it turns out, was John) singled and scored a run in his first plate appearance Sunday afternoon.



• Nearly lost in all the weekend excitement was the ominous news that Shannon Stewart’s foot injury has flared up again, and he is likely to be placed on the DL. Of course, this shouldn’t be a big deal, since the Twins have the hot-hitting Luis Castillo on the roster, and if he isn’t a prototypical leadoff man, who is? But of course, that would require Ron Gardenhire to begin batting Castillo in the leadoff spot, a concept to which Gardy seems positively allergic.



• Twins fans know we can always count on BatGirl for the really exclusive inside scoops, and this week was no exception, as Anne somehow came up with the closely guarded surveillance photos of Kyle Lohse’s reaction to being demoted to the minors.



• Jason Williams likes what he sees from the youth movement on the mound, and says that the Twins should continue to make moves to see what they have stockpiled for the future, even if it means abandoning any hope of reaching the playoffs this year. Gordon Wittenmeyer couldn’t disagree more, and says the team can’t afford to rush its future core players to the majors, even if the alternative is the unpleasant reality of watching Tony Batista flail away like a possessed lumberjack for an entire season.



• Friday night’s Cards-Royals game in Kansas City was interrupted by a streaker. Nothing terribly unusual there, of course, except for one thing: the interloper was apparently taken down immediately by… well, who would you think? Security? Nah. Bullpen pitchers? Uh-uh. Royals’ batboy? Now you’re talking…



• And while we’re on the subject of the boys in baby blue, Doug Mientkiewicz’s infant son is apparently named Steel. We kid you not. Apparently, Child Protective Services aren’t what they should be down Kansas City way. Asked what he could possibly have been thinking, Dougie Baseball shrugged and mumbled something about the world being rough, and his son needing to “get tough or die.” There is apparently no truth to the rumor that A.J. Pierzynski is planning to name his firstborn Zinc in solidarity with his former teammate.



• Speaking of everyone’s favorite instigator, you must have seen the video by now, right? No? What exactly have you been doing all weekend? Okay, well, here it is. Barrett and Pierzynski both played in Sunday’s game, and reports suggest that Pierzynski will likely not face suspension, Barrett definitely will, and several other players will almost certainly serve at least a game or two.

Links of the Weekend for 5/19-20/06

by Intern Sharkey

Ahoy! It’s time for another edition of the weekend links, rocking out to Broken Boy Soldiers.

• Of course, the big news from the last few days was Kyle Lohse’s demotion. He has accepted his demotion; the Mets are a possible (likely?) trade destination. Lohse still has a glimmer of value, and the Mets are checking their watches for the end of Lima Time. It’s doubtful the Twins will be overly picky with the returns. Also in that article: the Tony Batista Experience may be coming to an end sooner than later.



• As Steven Colbert would say, “It’s more like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg!”



• Seth has all the answers. Andy Wink has a few ideas of his own.



• Boof Bonsor, the third piece of the Pierzynski deal, will start on Sunday. Jesse of Twinkie Town gets you up to speed on the man here.


-The other two pieces of the AJ trade pitched well yesterday, breaking the losing streak. Option K racked up another 5 strikeouts in five innings. He only allowed two hits, but his control was spotty with three walks and multiple bounced balls. I noticed Mauer calling a lot of 3-ball change-ups; I wonder if it will take a few starts for Liriano and Chairman Mau(er) to get a feel for each other. Batista looks to be making a mad scramble to hang onto his job.


• Looking ahead to 2007’s rotation of Santana/Liriano/Baker/Bonsor/???, the role of “???” could be played by Matt Garza, last year’s first round pick who made his AAA debut the other day. It was, as they say, a decent start. I caught an interview with Paul Molitor Friday afternoon on KFAN, and he mentioned that Garza could get a possible cup of coffee after the rosters expand in September. Drew Ely has more here.



• Former Not-So-Little Leaguer Danny Almonte may not be all grown up, but he’s sure trying.



• As you may have heard, outdoor baseball is coming for the 2010 season. Just awesome. As always, Shane is your go-to man for the stadia; by the time you read this, chances are the bill will be on the Governor’s desk.



• And finally, I present the least classy thing I have ever seen.

Peace out kids; see you next week.

Links of the Day for 5/19/06

by Intern Pseudofool

The Twins played today. Ugg.

This blog is a great example of the rippling affects that trading AJ Pierzynski to the Giants. Well, Boof Bonsor has finally arrived. And Lohse well he was sent down. The Twins probably botched their handling of Lohse, and for Lohse, well, it’s not good. But a guy named “Boof” just has to succeed, right?

Bat girl’s take on Lohse going to AAA deserves it’s own link.

Mainstream Power Rankings: Espn.com has us at 20th, Sportsline.com has us at 21st, Foxsports has us at 22nd, and Sportsillustrated.com has at 21st, for an average of 21 points, which is three touchdowns in football.

Links of the Day for 5/17/06

by Intern Snarky

This just in... Kyle is out, Boof is in. In the pre-season, there was some speculation that Lohse could have a breakout year much likeJohn Garland had in '05. Unfortunately, the '06 Lohse is pitching likethe '06 Garland. For the time being, we'll have Bonser and Liriano inthe starting rotation and Nathan as the closer. Just how good is thatPerzynski trade looking these days?

And there was much rejoicing... sort of. Twinkie Town presents Kyle's defense, or the lack thereof.

The good news in today's Twins' notes - Liriano will be starting on Friday. The bad news- so will Castro. On a side note, Gardenhire has penciled three rookies into the starting rotation. I wonder if he's feeling okay.

In other news... Jim Caple and Kurt Snibbe of Espn.com have inside information that might sway the stadium debate.

Links of the Day for 5/17/06

By Intern Jimmy

Smile, It’s Johan’s Turn: It’s always a good day when #57 takes the mound. The hottest pitcher in baseball should rectify this latest 3 game skid (editors note: knock, knock). Santana’s last 4 starts have produced 4 wins, 40 K’s, 22 hits, 3 BB’s, and 7 earned runs in 29 innings. Looks like he’s settling into his mid-season groove a little earlier than normal. No complaints here.

At Long Last: Joy, rapture and an impatient sigh of “It’s about time” as Francisco Liriano steps out of the shadows to make his long anticipated start on Friday. I’ll now refrain from more unnecessary frothing at the mouth until after Friday’s performance.

Deja Vu: Like a teenager breaking curfew a week after his grounding was lifted, Kyle Lohse did little to help his cause Tuesday night. Lasting less than 3 innings, Lohse checked back into the pitiful pitching ward with his relapse, which begs the question- could the Twins have their second demotion of the week?

Milestone Mayhem: No, this is not another platform to denounce every meaningless at-bat as Babe Ruth’s home run mark is challenged by a fraud. (Did my inner monologue just write that?) Better, this great feature allows you to track the upcoming meaningful milestones for certain Twins players. Torii Hunter closes in on career hit 1,000 while Shannon Stewart and Rondell White chase career hit 1,500. Based on their starts, Stewart appeared to be in more of a hurry to reach the milestone. But lo and behold, with his RBI single last night, White finds himself in the midst of an 11-game hitting streak in which his batting average jumped .055 points. Pushing past the Mendoza line is Rondell’s next milestone.

Sacrificing the Sacrifice: The white whale of Web Gems – the triple play – rose to the surface on Sunday with a bunt attempt gone awry, drowning the promising inning and, effectively, the game. The fact that Luis Castillo was the culprit made the bunt blunder all the more egregious. The second baseman has converted 4 of the team’s total of 6 sacrifice hits on the season. A main ingredient to the small ball formula, the sac-less Twins are mired near the bottom of the Majors (24th in fact) when it comes to advancing runners. This got me thinking, how much or little have the Twins utilized the sacrifice hit (not the sac fly) in the last 5 years as they’ve risen to the top of the AL Central? For comparison’s sake, I looked at the Twins and White Sox team stats for sacrifice hits and runs, figuring runs scored is a natural by-product of placing more runners in scoring position.

Twins (SH/Runs) White Sox (SH/Runs)
2005 42/688 53/741
2004 46/780 58/865
2003 42/801 43/791
2002 34/768 48/856
2001 25/771 63/798

Plenty of theories and (skewed) conclusions can be made from this, but it’s interesting that the White Sox, a team that certainly has relied more on the long ball, uses the sac hit more consistently than the Twins. Also of note is the relative proximity in runs scored in 2001 despite the huge difference in sacrifice totals.

First Overall

by Will Young

With the first pick in the draft, the Calvin Griffith selects….a mess.

Twins fans are treated nightly to watching Joe Mauer. He’s young, talented and was destined for greatness ever since his selection as the first overall pick in 2001’s amateur draft. But the Twins haven’t always had such luck with the first overall pick.

After finishing with a 60-102 record in 1982, the Minnesota Twins “earned” the first choice in the 1983 June Amateur Draft. Unfortunately, Farm Director George Brophy lamented that the draft did not contain a clear top player and the overall talent level was below-average. The Twins’ brain trust compiled a list of their top six players, but pitcher Tim Belcher, from tiny Mount Vernon Nazarene College in Ohio, seemed to be the likely selection. Both Brophy and Owner Calvin Griffith agreed that they would choose a player regardless of his money demands. Of course, the notoriously frugal Griffith added that he preferred to not spend more than $100,000 to sign the pick.

The day before the draft, Griffith and the Twins had named Belcher their top target with shortstop Jeff Kunkel their alternate. Storm clouds were already gathering when Belcher said, “I’m just a junior. If they [the Twins] draft me, I could just go back to college for senior year.” As the draft loomed, the team’s first negotiating tactic was made clear: the Twins would try to convince Belcher to sign for less money than he could receive from other teams because he would be moving to the majors more quickly with the Twins.

On June 6, the Twins officially selected Belcher who promptly told the public all the right things. “I want to sign right now and get on with my baseball career,” Belcher explained. When asked about a signing bonus, Belcher added, “I’m thinking in terms of six-figures.” Twins fans who may have been nervous about selecting a pitcher from such a small school were likely relieved to hear that Baseball America’s scouting report named Belcher “the only pitcher in the draft who can really throw the ball by a hitter”.

During the next week, neither party made an effort to start serious negotiations. Belcher still did not expect to have any trouble reaching an agreement, but was confused about the delayed offer from the Twins. Brophy explained that the Twins were merely waiting for Belcher to finish arranging his legal counsel. On June 10, the Twins first began speaking with Belcher’s legal adviser, a young Chicago attorney by the name of Scott Boras. At this point, Boras was just establishing himself as a baseball agent, and was not the fearful figure he evolved into over the span of twenty years.

A week after the draft, the two parties were still offering compliments. Floyd Baker, the Twins’ scout who recommended Belcher, told Sid Hartman that Belcher was the “best pitcher I have seen in the last ten years”. Griffith announced that he was ready to pay Belcher a bonus in the area of $100,000. However, the Twins would not start negotiations with Belcher because, as Brophy explained, “We cannot get confirmation that [Scott] Boras is his agent.” Their interest in Boras’ exact arrangement with Belcher was made clear later as negotiations turned sour.

While the Twins kept publicly repeating their $100,000 offer, Belcher finally struck back. “The Twins knew what it would take to sign me before the draft,” Belcher said, “I told them I wouldn’t sign for under six-figures.” He then clarified his position when he added, “I don’t want to be the highest paid player ever picked first in the draft, but I want something between $125,000 and $160,000 – someplace in the middle.” In fact, Belcher further complained that the Twins had privately offered him just $90,000 despite having a pre-draft conversation to learn his expectations.

The front office portrayed Belcher as unfamiliar with the historic principles of the organization. Like, say, frugality. Brophy noted that Belcher had turned down more money than the Twins had ever offered another draft pick. Of course, he failed to mention that no other Twins draft pick had ever been selected first overall, and that inflation had steadily increased players’ salaries.

A month after the draft, the two sides were maintaining their initial demands. Belcher still wanted between $130,000 and $165,000 (notice the $5,000 increase in the high- and low-points of the range) while the Twins were offering just $80,000 in addition to $4,000 for him to finish his education. Belcher said that Baker, the scout, had promised an initial offer of $90,000 and they had not even fulfilled that promise. Anger began to seep into Belcher’s words as he complained, “They shouldn’t have drafted me if they didn’t want to pay what they knew I wanted to sign.”

Finally, after a month, the Twins blinked first. Both parties mutually confirmed that the Twins offer to Belcher had been increased to $110,000. Belcher still was not satisfied and said he would still wait for between $130,000 and $160,000. He also unfurled his greatest negotiating weapon – the imposition of a deadline. Belcher announced that he had begun making plans to return to college in case he did not sign within the next few days.

At the next meeting between Brophy and Boras, the Twins tried to turn the tables. They withdrew their $110,000 offer and tried to use Belcher’s deadline to their advantage. Boras told Sid Hartman that the Twins were not “going to make an offer until August 28 in order to give Belcher just three days to decide whether to accept before needing to go back to school.” Rather than blink, Boras warned the Twins that by waiting for the January draft, Belcher would have no trouble getting the money he was seeking. After all, the fourth pick from June, Eddie Williams of the Mets, had just signed for $155,000.

Next, the Twins attempted to squash Belcher’s threat of returning to school. George Brophy asserted that Belcher “may have made himself ineligible for the NCAA by hiring Boras”. Boras refuted this claim when he announced, “I am following NCAA rules as a legal adviser.” Calvin Griffith led the next attack when he announced, “I’m not going to give him big money to come down with a sore arm.” The Twins were grasping at straws to convince the public that Belcher was unreasonable. Sid Hartman pondered “One wonders why the Twins drafted him, if they weren’t going to sign him.”

As the September 1 deadline approached, both sides stood firm. Belcher maintained his desire to sign with the Twins, but was becoming more and more exasperated. Every other first round pick had signed and several had received much more than the $110,000 he was being offered. “If Griffith refuses to make an offer between $100,000 and $160,000, then we may have a stalemate,” he lamented.

Belcher postponed enrolling in classes and extended his deadline to September 5. At this point, another potential stumbling block appeared as the two parties began arguing over the method of any bonus payment – provided a bonus could be agree upon. The Twins wanted to split the bonus into thirds and offer the first third at the signing, another third in January, and the final third in November 1984. Belcher countered by asking for half upon signing and the other half early in 1984. Griffith, openly trying to sell the team at this point, was looking for any way to defer the costs to the next owner. Even Sid Hartman publicly criticized the team complaining, “It would be a serious public relations blunder if the Twins didn’t sign a player their scouts designated as the best available in the draft.”

In a last ditch effort, the Twins tried to drive Belcher away from Scott Boras. “If Belcher actually wants to sign, let him call me and tell me so. Otherwise, we just won’t sign him”, Griffith said. Belcher held his ground, continually referred the team to Boras, and refused to accept the Twins offer which steadily increased to $120,500. In a ceremonial gesture, Griffith cut the offer to $60,000 on September 15. Deciding that their situation was hopeless, the Twins proceeded to throw stones at Belcher from afar. They insinuated that his holdout was going to harm him financially because players in the January supplemental draft historically received smaller salaries than their June counterparts.

The Twins refusal to meet Belcher’s demands did not preclude at least five other teams from asking the Commissioner’s Office about the legality of trading for his rights. Seeing that other teams were salivating at the thought of picking Belcher in the January draft, Griffith attempted to prevent Belcher from entering it.

The Twins encouraged the Commissioner to investigate whether or not Belcher had begun taking fall classes. If he had, according to NCAA rules, Belcher would not be eligible to be drafted for another 120 days or well after the January date. Scott Boras vehemently denied that Belcher had taken a class. Furthermore, Boras maintained that since Mount Vernon Nazarene College was an NAIA school, he did not need to follow the NCAA rules. Sid Hartman cut to the heart of the story when he wrote, “Most Major League teams would fight to sign the number one pick in the country. The Twins, not wanting to spend the money, try to get off the hook by making him ineligible.” After some investigating, Belcher was allowed to enter the January 1984 draft, and the Twins were left empty-handed.

Postscript

Belcher was chosen by the New York Yankees in the January draft. He finished with a 146-140 record and an ERA just two percent better than the league average, but he also pitched for 14 years in the majors, and earned over $26 million. Scott Boras refined his negotiating skills and draft strategy until he perfected the technique with J.D. Drew. Less than a year after the negotiations, Calvin Griffith sold the Twins to Carl Pohlad, citing the rising costs of running a franchise as a reason to exit the sport. George Brophy admitted that fall that the Twins should have selected their other choice – University of Oklahoma pitcher Roger Hayward (whose entire major league career consisted of 78.2 innings and a 4-8 career record).

Finally, eighteen picks after Tim Belcher, the Boston Red Sox drafted Roger Clemens.

After growing up in Richfield, Will Young currently lives in Washington, DC where he a Master's Degree candidate in Sport Management at the George Washington University and blogs about the Twins at www.wyoung.net/twins.

The previous story is in the May issue of GameDay

Links of the Day for 5/16/06

by Intern Thomas

Once again, I get to provide the links of the day after a massive buzzkill of a weekend. It started so promisingly too, with a convincing victory over the White Sox on Saturday. And then, well, then we found out that maybe Liriano was breathing down the wrong starter’s neck. Gardenhire is finally calling on the Cisco Kid and his team leading 12.9 k’s per nine to take the mound at the beginning of a game.

• Things might have been different on Sunday, however, if Gardenhire had pulled Silva before he imploded in the Fourth Inning. Frightwig wants to know what you think was going through Gardy’s head while Silva was letting the game get out of hand.



• In case you did miss the game on Sunday, some members of the Twins, including Shannon Stewart chose to celebrate Mother’s Day by using pink bats, and all the players wore pink wristbands. The Hardball Times chose to celebrate in a different manner—they collected advice from mothers of baseball notables.



• Finally, the Twins family has lost one of its original members, as Jim Lemon passed away on Sunday. He was an outfielder for the Senators when they moved to the Twin Cities in 1961, and played in Minnesota until he was traded away in 1963. Minnesota baseball fans missed his prime, however, as his last good season came in 1960.

Links of the Weekend for 5/12-3/06

by Intern Sharkey

Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Links, brought to you by the end of my freshman year of college (it’s been a bit busy, so sorry for the rough-and-ready treatment). To the Linkage!

• Craig Burley is still driving the Bert-for-the-Hall bandwagon.



• Quite literally, the “Mother” of all frivolous lawsuits.



• And you thought Bert was bad in the booth. Thanks Deadspin.



• FJM isn’t cutting Sutcliffe any slack.



• This is simply too good of a story to not be true.



• Will, complete with a new title, takes a two look at the struggles of Rondell “Unbreakable” White.



• ED-DY! ED-DY! ED-DY!



• This Santana guys seems to be pretty decent. Keep an eye on him; he might turn out to be a keeper.

Three more with The Champs. Enjoy the weekend.

The Stadium Game

As the stadium bill is being reworked in a conference committee this weekend, I thought it might be a good idea to cover the long strange path a stadium bill travels. This is from the April issue of GameDay. To see it in it's entirety, just click on it. - TG

A taste of this weekend's Dugout Splinters in GameDay...

What's Working

The White Sox won last year, plain and simple, because of their pitching. For all the raves about the White Sox offense, it was below average, ranking ninth in the American League. Not anymore. They’re in fourth place in the AL this year, thanks to a gamble they took on a 35-year-old with a bad back by the name of Jim Thome. Fourteen home runs later, we can safely say that was a pretty good gamble.

There is no way to portray the Thome trade as anything less than completely one-sided. The White Sox gave up a very good hitting center fielder in Aaron Rowand, but Rowand was going to start getting expensive. In addition, they received $22 million to help cover Thome’s salary, meaning that Thome is essentially costing the White Sox just $7 million per season over the next three years, which is about the same amount the Twins are paying Shannon Stewart.

White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to make that kind of deal because he was in the right place at the right time. New Phillies’ GM Pat Gillick was apparently desperate to get out from under Thome’s contract because of the performance of rookie Ryan Howard last year, who can only play first base. Thome’s no-trade clause in his contract gave him the freedom to veto any trade that wasn’t to a competitive team close to his home. The White Sox were the only interested team that matched those criteria. Plus, they happened to have an offensively skilled center fielder, which the Phillies have needed since Lenny Dykstra. Deal done.

What’s worse for Twins fans is the performance of the players that surround Thome in the order, each of whom are hitting about 50 points higher than last year. Tadahito Iguchi bats second and hit .278 last year. He’s hitting .323 so far this year. Paul Konerko, who bats cleanup, is batting .331 versus .283 last year. The next batter, Jermaine Dye, is hitting .309, 36 points higher that in 2005.

Had enough? Sorry, there’s more. Following Dye is AJ Pierzynski who is batting .330. Following him is Joe Crede, whose career batting average is .259. He’s hitting .319 this year. I can’t go on. No player should have that big an effect on his teammates, but if that’s a coincidence, it’s one miserable coincidence for Twins fans.

On the Hill

Monday: Freddy Garcia (5-1, 4.64 ERA)

• 2005: 14-8, 228 IP, 146 K, 3.87 ERA


• Garcia was the other White Sox pitcher who has been traded for Randy Johnson. He was the key prospect that Seattle acquired when they traded away Randy Johnson in 1998. They also acquired Carlos Guillen (who we just saw starting at shortstop with the Tigers) and John Halama (who is no longer in the majors).


• In his last start he struggled early but gave up only one run over eight innings. He also didn’t walk a batter, which has been a problem for him most of the year.


• Heckling Tip: Time for those Jeff Spicoli impressions. According to the Venezuelan daily newspaper Lider, Garcia tested positive for marijuana during the World Baseball Classic. Aloha, Mr. Hand.

Links of the Day for 5/12/06

by Intern Pseudofool

• It’s a bit early to start the trade rumor machine going but a few blogs are discussing the possibility of Hunter and/or Stewart going to the Cards here, here, and even here. Though I’m sure some people still aren’t very keen on trading with St. Louis after giving them Tom Brunansky for Tom Herr.



• King Kyle? I guess we won’t see Liriano this quickly after all.



• Can we measure defense with as statistical model? The answer is: who knows. But nonetheless ubelmann takes a look at the Twins measurable defense and its absurdity.



• Don’t forget to examine and analyze the minors on a regular basis! You can do so here and here. Also look for Roger’s updates on Sethspeaks.net (as well as Seth’s own observations) and Dianna’s updates in the minor league forums at DTFC. [editor's note: You can also find Roger's minor league news in GameDay] Don't you want to discuss whether Trevor Plouffe is better than Alexi Casilla? Or how good Doug Deeds and Josh Rabe can be? Matt Moses is hitting .330/.382/.530 with five homers, I know I like that. Batista eat your heart out.



• Mainstream Power Rankings: Espn.com has them at 21st, Sportsline.com has them at 25th, Foxsports has them at 23rd, and Sportsillustrated.com has them also at 23rd, for a grand total of 91st place, which is really bad considering there are only 30 teams.

Links of the Day for 5-10-06

By Intern Jimmy

Under The Microscope: No start in Kyle Lohse's Twins tenure carries as much ramification as today's turn on the mound. Lohse's rollercoaster act has worn razor thin with management and fans. No longer is youthful inexperience an acceptable excuse. Lohse's strong spring seemed to portend the coming of age for the 27-year old. Too bad the magic quickly disappeared as 4 of 6 starts have yielded 6 or more earned runs. Who could ever replace his spot in the rotation…

Help On The Way? The question has been asked ad nauseum since his major league call up- when will the grooming period end for the uber-talented Francisco Liriano? Closer than we all think? The club's kiddie-gloves treatment of Johan Santana reaped obvious benefits, which begs the question- is his second coming ready? With the season spiraling towards the Boundary Waters, the positives far outweigh the negatives of the youngster thrown into the mix. If the coaches feel the need to keep Liriano at a pitch count, so be it. The sooner he begins thinking and throwing like a starter, the better. There's no doubt Liriano is special, as Jim Souhan hyped about a month back. Hell, his 13.24 K/9 leads all American League pitchers. I can’t even fathom the prospect of mercilessly unleashing the dual lefty attack on successive nights. It’d be nice if the Twins realized exactly how good the cards are before folding their hand. If you’re dealt pocket aces, the smart bet is to play them.

Defense To The Rescue: Though it's hardly a surprise when it happens, Torii turned in another sterling Web gem Sunday (below the picture, click the video icon “Torii’s running catch”). Racing to cover more ground than usual, Hunter snared the ball backhanded on the run coming out of nowhere. The defensive play of the day in baseball left the commentators in disbelief and mouths agape everywhere. It’s booster shots like this from their de facto leader that the Twins need to raise the overall confidence and play with a sense of urgency as they climb back to respectability.

Injury Alert: Not that I like to revel in any player getting hurt, but this news prompted a faint smile to escape. With the Twins treading water to stay afloat in the Central, anything resembling a buoy to help earn a win, especially against this particular division rival, is reason enough to grab for it. As the offense stalls as frequently as any stick-shift car I drive, not having to face the league’s ERA leader in the upcoming 4 game tilt is welcome news. What if things snowball for the White Sox without the presence of their most reliable pitcher dating back to last year’s postseason run? What if the injury is worse since Contreras isn’t exactly a spry young man who bounces back from ailments? The potential for something like this to throw the White Sox clubhouse off-kilter and embark on a losing skid has me twirling my imaginary Rollie Fingers mustache.

Links of the Day for 5/9/06

by Intern Thomas

• In case you haven’t noticed, the left side of the infield has come back to earth in terms of generating offense. Are there other options available? (Yeah, I know, everyone knows the answer to this question). Aaron Gleeman has a look at how the Twins’ hitting prospects are doing down on the Farm. And while Bartlett and Kubel aren’t exactly setting AAA on fire, they’re still doing pretty well, and with Cuddyer handling the bat well, it seems that there are better options than the Dictator Duo. Mike Kramer over at Twins Killings seems to think that the signing of Batista and Castro aren’t the only reasons to be unhappy with Terry Ryan.



• Of course, it’s a lot harder to find fault with Ryan when it comes to finding stud pitchers. Santana is already past his usual slow start (though he had no chance against the combined powers of DicknBert on Sunday), posting a 2.48 ERA in his last four starts. Of course, if Bert hadn’t said anything about the shutout after Pudge broke up the no hitter, it would have only been 1.86.



• It seems that Lohse is pitching for his spot in the rotation on Wednesday. Is it wrong to be rooting for another poor start from the Soul Patch Kid? Also, it seems Gardenhire is the reason Liriano is being used in the setup role, rather than starting in AAA. It seems to me that Ryan should take a page out of Billy Beane’s book and stop letting his manager make decisions that the GM should be making.



• Finally, the Greet Machine remains the place to get all of your stadium bill news. Things are looking good in the Senate after a poll of Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson’s constituency showed that 71% were in favor of the bill. And Governor Pawlenty has decided to sign the bill if it passes the legislature. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for the vote, which should be sometime this week.

How Much for the Litte Boy?

by Twins Geek

The following is in this month's issue of GameDay, the independent program sold outside of the Metrodome.

---

What’s striking is the confidence.

Sure, there’s the patience. And the quick wrists. Everyone talks about the sweet swing, as if most of us could judge such a thing. But we know confidence. You could plunk some tribal pygmy from the Amazon in the front row of the Metrodome and he’d watch one at-bat and tell you that this kid was special compared to the others.

The quiet confidence. Especially in one so young. It lifts us up. At least, until - in typical Minnesotan self-deprecating fashion - we wonder how much longer we’ll get to enjoy it.

Welcome to the modern business of baseball, where players aren’t glossy trading cards – they’re contracts. Where small market teams need to evaluate the long-term future of a player before they’ve really been tested. And where the fairy tale about a kid playing for his hometown team may not end in “happily ever after”.

It seems like we just met Joe Mauer. Nevertheless, due to the economics of the game, the sports market that Mauer and his team share, and one crummy knee injury, an important opportunity has already passed. And Mauer’s economic value to a team that counts its pennies is decreasing fast.

Serfdom

Mauer’s knee injury in 2004 robbed the Twins of more than just his bat in the lineup. It robbed them of one-third of Mauer’s “serf” years. For roughly the first three years of a major league player’s career, their team can pay him whatever they want (above a minimum salary requirement.) If the player doesn’t accept what the team offers, the player has two choices – play for less or don’t play baseball.

This is when a team recoups the investment it makes in its farm system. It’s completely speculative what Mauer might have made if he could have been a free agent just prior to his rookie year, but a multi-year, guaranteed contract that exceeded $5 million is nearly certain. It might have exceeded $10 million. Instead, the Twins paid him $300,000.

Of course, that year Mauer only had 107 at-bats because of one of the worst possible knee injuries. Oh, it wasn’t “worst possible” in terms of severity – Jason Kubel has that award sewn (stitched?) up. It was “worst possible” in that it was difficult to diagnose, and difficult to judge its progress. Perhaps that’s the reason that the Twins didn’t put him on the 60 day disabled list, which would have delayed his service time. Instead, he gained a year toward the three years of service he needs to get to arbitration.

Arbitration

Starting next year, Mauer will be eligible for arbitration for the next three years. This means that the Twins (if they want to retain him) must pay him a salary that is comparable to what a similar major leaguer makes. Finding a “similar major leaguer” can be tricky, but there are a couple of young players whose salaries could provide a baseline.

Victor Martinez, the talented young catcher for the Cleveland Indians, is a very comparable player who already has a contract. Martinez will make $3 million in his fourth year of service time (which like Mauer, would be in 2007), $4.25 million in his fifth year, and $5.7 million in his sixth year. Anything near that would be the best possible scenario for the Twins. Martinez is getting paid quite a bit below the “superstar” strata for the next three years.

Unfortunately for the Twins, Martinez signed that deal over a year ago, and some more recent deals by young studs are making that salary structure obsolete. Mark Texeira, who was drafted just a couple picks behind Mauer, signed a deal with Texas this offseason that pays him $6.4 million this year, his fourth service year. He’ll make $9 million in his fifth year. He’ll make more than that in his sixth year before he starts making really big money as a free agent.

Chairman Mauer looks like he’s in line for nearly a $3-4 million raise next year, and at least a couple million dollars raise per year after that. Pretty soon, he won’t be the bargain upon which a small market team needs to rely. Time to sign him up to a long-term deal, right?

A missed opportunity

Um, maybe, but don’t expect a big bargain, because that opportunity passed, if it was ever there. The last chance for a major league team to get a big markdown is the offseason following the player’s second full year. At that point, the player has toiled for two years in the majors, and will need to play solidly (and stay healthy) for one more year before they get that first million-dollar contract and gain a lifetime of financial security. For the Twins and for Mauer, that was last offseason.

That didn’t happen, though you can be relatively sure that it wasn’t for lack of interest by the Twins. They’ve recently sought and signed similar deals with Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon and Carlos Silva. It’s doubtful they just overlooked inking a similar deal with the face of their franchise for the rest of the decade.

It’s far more likely that there just wasn’t interest on Mauer’s side. After all, as the first overall pick in the draft, he’s not in the same situation as most ballplayers. His signing bonus was $5.15 million, which he secured by leveraging his football scholarship to Florida State. Neither Mauer nor his agent, the renowned Ron Shapiro, has demonstrated a lack of solid negotiating skills. That doesn’t mean a long term deal can’t happen. It just means it won’t be cheap.

It Is What It Is

The good news is that the Twins have a great young player who should only improve. He’s a fantastic bargain for this year, and a pretty solid bargain for next year. They also don’t need to sign a multi-year guaranteed contract. Since Mauer can’t become a free agent until after his sixth season, the Twins essentially have a four-year contract with him that contains an escalating pay scale that they can renew annually.

The bad news is that in 2008, Mauer’s salary is going to affect the level of players with which the Twins can surround him. Two years after that, he can go to the highest bidder, and there isn’t a lot the Twins are going to be able to do about it other than throw a lot of money his way.

The same dichotomy applies to Twins fans. The good news is they get to watch greatness. The bad news is that every step their favorite player takes forward is likely another step towards the door. So, enjoy it while you can. So good. So confident. So young. So rare.

So long?

Links of the Day for 5/8/06

Powered by Intern Sam

• Johan Santana took a no-hit game into the 7th inning Sunday before allowing a seeing-eye grounder to Ivan Rodriguez, and it was fun to listen to Herb Carneal and John Gordon in the middle innings as they adhered strictly to the old superstition about never mentioning a no-hitter until it’s broken up, and nearly burst from the excitement. At one point, Carneal danced on the edge of cosmic acceptability when he said, “Two baserunners for the Tigers in the game…” [long pause here, even for Herb] “…a walk… and a hit batsman. Santana’s first pitch to Inge in there for a called strike…” Classic stuff, and it got Intern Sam thinking about superstitions, and ballplayers, and well, we’ve all got our favorites, right? (How about the shortstop who was terrified of the letter ‘x’? Or the Twins’ own Gene Mauch, who never washed his underwear after a win?) Here’s a great list of some of the strangest…



• Some of the best writing and research on the Twins stadium shenanigans at the Capitol is happening on a blog authored by a Minnesota Senate staffer who says that today could be a very important day for the Twins bill.



• Anyone watching a baseball game on TV over the last couple of years has probably heard some commentator or other griping about the lack of inside pitching in the modern game. Since the guy griping the loudest is usually the unbelievably pompous Joe Morgan, many fans might be tempted to assume that a lack of chin music isn’t an actual problem. After all, there are still plenty of great pitchers around, right? But the fact is, (and Intern Sam shudders to type these words,) Morgan is right, and this weekend, Gordon Wittenmeyer took a stab at explaining why…



• We’re just going to assume that there isn’t actually a Twins farmhand named Josh Medwell. On the off chance that there actually is, we absolutely, positively, do not want to hear about it.



• How tough is it to be a Royals fan? So tough that one 34-year-old fan is throwing in the towel in seriously public fashion. Dismayed by years of futile rooting, Chad Carroll started an eBay auction, offering “my loyalty to the Kansas City Royals (jersey included)” to the highest bidder, and promised the winner the privilege of picking another team for Carroll to support. A Yahoo!Sports columnist offered $198.50, and the Northern League’s Kansas City T-Bones took a run at Carroll’s loyalty as well, but in the end, it was a group of Chad’s buddies who pooled their bids to win the auction. Happy ending, right? Wrong. One of the teams under consideration as Chad’s new rooting interest is the Pittsburgh Pirates.