The 7th Bullpen Spot

I can't make it to spring training this year, which is KILLING me. Instead I'm left taking a look at box scores, occasionally listening to games and reviewing rosters to try and figure out what it going on from 1718 miles away.

I'm missing some drama this year. The 7th bullpen spot had become interesting in sort of a car crash kind of way. The top six spots seem to be pretty well taken....

RH Middle Relievers - Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Pat Neshek
LH Middle Reliever - Jose Mijares
Mop Up Guy - Clay Condrey

Condrey has had a miserable spring, giving up another three hits in an inning yesterday, which is a cause for concern. The fact that he's out of options virtually guarantees him a roster spot, especially because there don't seem to be any candidates to replace him. In fact, there don't even seem to be any candidates to JOIN him, let alone replace him, which brings us back to that seventh spot.

I think the top guy on the wish list was Brian Duensing, mostly because he was left-handed, but partly because he really should be rewarded for being one of the best starting pitchers over the last couple months last year. But he's given up 12 hits in seven innings, including four more in three innings on Sunday. If he's healthy, he'll probably get another chance tomorrow, but there aren't a lot of chances left.

Glen Perkins is also left-handed, and was also in camp to supposedly compete for a spot. But his ERA is 9.00 and that's because he's given up 14 hits in seven innings. And now he's hurt with a back strain from working out. That's funny because I think I just read that an important deadline just passed. The reason the Twins sent Danny Valencia out of camp this weekend was because any player on the 40-man roster who is injured in Spring Training and still injured on Opening Day must be put on the DL.

Perkins is on the 40-man roster too. And if he goes on the DL, he gains service time. Coincidentally, Perkins missed being arbitration eligible (and thus probably an extra million dollars in salary) by about three days of service time last year, and was pissed enough about it to file a case against the Twins. And now he has a back injury that could be worth a dozen or so days of service time. Huh. Isn't that a happy little coincidence?

There are a bunch of other former right-handed starters that could have taken this place too, like Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship, but they also have had terrible springs. Which brings us to the final candidates:

The one everyone is talking about it Anthony Slama, because we've followed him so long. It doesn't hurt that he has put up such filthy numbers in the lower levels of the minors and has struck out nine guys in five innings this spring. But he's right-handed, and hasn't seen much in the way of major league batters yet.

The guy that nobody seems to be talking about is Mike Maroth, who is left-handed, a veteran, and has a 3.38 ERA this spring. Of course, he's also trying to restart a major league career and has struck out just on guy the entire spring. But he did precede Slama in yesterday's game and get through a scoreless inning. Maroth and Slama look like the two top candidates to me.

(Ron Mahay, the left-handed reliever who the Twins signed yesterday, is not. But he might be ready by the end of April as an insurance policy.)

The name that won't go away is Francisco Liriano, who has been silly good this spring, striking out 16 and walking just one in 10 innings pitched. It sounds like manager Ron Gardenhire keeps bringing up his name as a closer option and I wonder if we aren't seen a little stand-off between him and GM Bill Smith.

Gardenhire wants a closer, and wants Smith to get him one. The talk about Liriano closing might be nothing more than a vague threat in case Gardy doesn't get his way. He may not get to choose exactly who is on his 25-man roster, but he sure as hell gets to decide what to do with them when they're there. And if he needs to lose an ace starter to prove his point about wanting a closer, he just might be that crazy....

I don't think he is that crazy, and I think he has plenty of other options. Liriano will stay in the rotation even though Bill Smith stands pat. Duensing will get the last spot if he finds himself on Friday or next Wednesday. In the meantime, Slama and Maroth will be pitted in a competition to take the spot if Duensing can't pull it together.

Or at least that's how things look from 1718 miles away.

Catchers and MVPs

I've just been doing a little research on historically great catchers, and I've got to tell you, I'm a little blown away by what I'm finding. We sort of generally refer to Joe Mauer as having a chance to be one of the best catchers ever. And he could be, but there are sure some remarkable catchers in baseball history.

Take MVP awards for instance, which is an area where Mauer should already compare favorably. After all, he's only 26 and has already won once and finished in the top six in voting three times. But look at the top seven guys that Bill James identifies as the best major league catchers in his Historical Baseball Abstract:

• Bill Dickey, who played for the Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig Yankees (and batted in the middle of that lineup) never won an MVP but finished in the top ten five times. And he finished in the top 20 ten times.
• Carleton Fisk (Red Sox in 70s, White Sox in 80s) also never won but finished in the top 4 four times.
• Mike Piazza never won, but finished in the top ten seven times. And finished 13th and 14th two other times.

Those guys are good, but now we get to the heavy hitters:

• Mickey Cochrane, who led the Athletics to two World Series titles and then led Detroit to their first championship ever (as a player/manager in 1935) won two MVPs. He also finished 4th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 14th and 18th in other years.
• The Brooklyn Dodgers Roy Campanella only played for ten years due to the color barrier and an auto accident that left him paralyzed. But during those ten years he won three MVPs and got votes three other times.
• Johnny Bench of the 70s Big Red Machine won two MVP awards before he was 25 years old. In all he received votes during ten seasons.
• And not only did Yogi Berra win three MVP awards, but for eight straight years he never finished lower than fourth. He received votes in fifteen consecutive years. His Yankees teams of the late 40s and 50s also appeared in 14 World Series, and he won ten of them.
  

So keep at it Joe. There's still plenty of mountains to climb.

Joe's Contract & the Twins' Future

The Twins announced on Sunday that they had reached an agreement with Joe Mauer on an eight-year extension for $184 million, which Joe Christensen is reporting will be paid at $23 million per year. We'll get more details at 6:00 on Monday when a press conference is scheduled, but let’s tackle some questions that are popping up from Twins fans.

Woo-HOO!

Well, that’s more of an exclamation than a question, but I totally concur. Woo-hoo indeed.

One of the things that baseball analysts struggle with is what a truly elite player is worth. Can you make up for their value with other, cheaper combinations of players and still be a championship-caliber team? I don’t know the answer, and I don’t care. Here’s what I care about: watching an elite player, maybe even historically elite, for the next nine years. Again, woo-hoo!

Why nine years? I thought it was an eight-year contract?

It’s an eight-year contract extension, not an eight-year contract. Mauer had a contract through this year and the contract extension was announced to go through the 2018 season, at which point Mauer will be 35 years old.

So we have him locked up for nine years?

Maybe, maybe not. We’ll hopefully find out tomorrow if there is an opt-out clause for Mauer at some point during the contract. That’s happened in some recent contracts, like last year’s deal for C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia can opt out of his seven-year deal with the Yankees next year, when it’s only three years old.

This kind of a clause is usually justified as protection for the player if salaries skyrocket. If Mauer and his agent think they already gave a hometown discount, they might regard that as important protection. Plus, with Mauer only being 26 years old, an opt-out clause after four years might allow him to be on the market when he’s 30, which is young enough to justify another longer deal. Like I said, hopefully this will be answered in tomorrow’s press conference.

Did Mauer give a hometown discount?

If so, it doesn’t appear to be a very big one, just like his last two deals with the Twins. The biggest recent contract for a hitter came a year ago, when first baseman Mark Teixeira signed an eight-year deal with the Yankees that paid him an average of $22.5 million per year. Mauer’s deal is just a little richer than that. One could argue that if he became a free agent, Mauer would have exceeded that contract since he’s both younger and a catcher. On the other hand, Teixera has averaged 35 HR and 114 RBI over his seven-year career, numbers Mauer has never
reached in any season.

Would a bidding war between the Yankees, Red Sox or Mets have driven up the number higher than that? Maybe. Of course, Mauer would have had to wait another year, staying healthy and putting up huge numbers again to find out. Instead, he’s guaranteed the money either way now.

What if he gets hurt or can’t stay at catcher?

The money is guaranteed, so he’ll get it one way or the other. The Twins could take out insurance on it to help protect themselves, but that insurance costs money too, so it likely won’t be for the full amount. And if Mauer can play at a position other than catcher, the insurance wouldn’t help.

A lot of the money Mauer is attached to him playing catcher. This offseason, the next biggest contract was signed by Matt Holliday, who returned to the St. Louis Cardinals. He signed a (much criticized) seven-year, $120 million deal, which averages out to about $17 million per year.

Holliday puts up about 25-30 homer runs per year and has a career batting average of .318. Mauer showed similar power last year and has a career batting average of .327. Holliday isn’t quite the hitter that Mauer is, but he’s close. However, as a left-fielder, Holliday is making about $6 million less per year.

So if Mauer needs to move out from behind the dish, but he still continues to hit, the Twins will be stuck paying about $4-5 million too much for him every year. That’s not terrible, provided he’s still producing offensively.

Does this mean the Twins won’t have any money to spend on other players this year?

Again, Mauer had a contract through this year for $12.5 million and it sounds like that stays intact, so this deal probably doesn’t affect this year’s money much. If there was a signing bonus, then it would affect this year’s money. However, the last deal Mauer signed did not have a signing bonus, and it’s pretty unlikely he needs the money right away.

This could be significant, because the Twins also announced yesterday that Joe Nathan will undergo Tommy John surgery as soon as he can. It was reported last week that over half of Nathan’s salary this year could be insured, meaning the Twins might have $6 million to spend that they didn’t think they would have. That could come in handy when looking for a closer or at the trade deadline.

Is any of the $184 million deferred, like Sid Hartman suggested?

We don’t know. Initial indications are that it’s not. I’ll say this – if Mauer wants to make sure he’s paid market rate AND make the Twins as competitive as he can over the next eight years, it would makes sense for him to demand that a big chunk of that money be deferred.

If you’ll indulge me in some over-the-top speculation, what if Mauer asked that $10 million of each year’s salary be deferred? The Twins would have $10 million more to spend on their team those years. Mauer gets his money, but he also benefits from playing on a team with an artificially higher payroll.

Of course, the fiscally conservative Twins might not be crazy about penalizing the 2020 team to subsidize the 2012 team. And they could be really worried that other stars like Justin Morneau would see this as a viable alternative for their own future negotiations. Again, I hope we’ll find out more about this on Monday.

Is $23 million per year too much? Will it cripple the Twins?

The one question I never heard anyone answer throughout this contract negotiation was “How much is too much?” I’d like to be critical of that, but I don’t have an answer either.

So let’s see what this is going to do to payroll for the Twins the next couple of years, assuming that the breakdown is $23 million per year as Joe Christensen reported. So on the right are some back-of-the-napkin figures for 2011….

That’s tight. The Twins would have a payroll of about $94 million with spots to fill in their rotation, at second base, and in their bullpen. Payroll next year would probably be close to $100 million, so that leaves about $6 million to spend. They would need to fill most spots with youngsters and possibly spend on one lower-tier free agent. (Or, sigh, Nick Punto.)

I’d like to show you 2012, but things get really fuzzy by then. Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and JJ Hardy could all be free agents. Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young could either be very expensive or gone. Nathan’s salary comes off the books. I compute a payroll of just $58 million or so, but we also have a tremendous number of open positions. The bottom line is that it’s just too far away to do any realistic analysis on it.

What’s clear is that the Twins will need to rely on their farm system to provide help to cover contracts like this. Fortunately, that’s not just an economic reality; it’s a philosophical tenet of the organization. It’s what the organization has believed and done for the last ten years.

So no, I don’t think it cripples the Twins. But it does likely mean that spending on free agents in the next decade could look an awful lot like it did last decade. This was a great offseason for the Twins and their fans. I hope you are enjoying it, because we likely won’t see another like it for another nine years.

(Image courtesy of Keith Allison)

Rewriting History

A Review of The End of Baseball by Peter Schilling Jr.

By Chrissie Bonnes

(Editor's note: This was originally run a couple of years ago when Peter's book came out in hardback. I'm rerunning it because this week the book is being re-released in paperback. It deserves every sale it gets, and Twins Geek's readers deserve to know about it.)

I’m a rabid baseball fan only when one of my two favorite teams is playing, so I wondered if I was the best candidate to review Peter Schilling, Jr.’s historical baseball novel The End of Baseball. Luckily, Mr. Schilling worked himself into a hitter’s count by basing most of the action in the hometown of one of my two favorite teams, Philadelphia. He then proceeded to hit one out of the park.

The premise, according to the author, is based in fact. Bill Veeck, freshly wounded in World War II, had the brainstorm of buying a big league team and, to turn a profit, integrating baseball all at once rather than one player at a time. Schilling has Veeck take that action, buying the Philadelphia A’s and fielding a team composed solely of the best players from the Negro Leagues.

The fact that I am not the target market for this novel became clear early on during an action-movie-esque chapter describing a scouting expedition to a less than democratic island nation. Though it may be too early to discuss movie rights, it seems the role of the scout was written for Harrison Ford at his Indiana Jones best. Though the scout was slightly less dashing than Harrison Ford, it’ll be a few years before the movie version comes out, and Han Solo isn’t getting any younger.

My early reservations about plowing through a baseball book written by a man for male readers were quickly set aside. The detail paid to each character, making each unique, and making many both hero and villain, will mesmerize any reader. So often, an author is unable to separate his own voice from that of his characters’, resulting in a homogenous cast, providing pleasant enough company on the ride and trading clever barbs. Here, each character has a unique voice, his own character traits, and his own view of every situation.

For instance, we see a player walk the streets of Detroit with a cousin who witnessed the city’s race riots. As the events that shaped the player’s past and contributed to his determination become clear, he becomes so much more than one of the pitchers in the A’s rotation. This player has his own “Invincible” moment, when he “ran into himself,” in the form of a stickball game, Detroit versus Philadelphia. As if it wasn’t already obvious, the reader sees that the player knows this is bigger than him. And though this novel is not at all bogged down by stats, their importance to some players is vividly depicted: “His brain housed a twenty-story accounting firm of little Satchels, all of whom scribbled ledger after ledger of his statistics, feats, and – tucked in a black folder and filed away – his mistakes.”

Not that clever one-liners are absent. The sometimes tense, sometimes deathly serious moments are balanced by genuine humor. On baseball’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night, one of the A’s faithful is about to become the lucky recipient of myriad prizes bestowed upon him by a pair of bathing beauties. “There were cases of Ballantine Ale and Moxie soda pop, six giant cans of Hershey’s chocolate syrup, a box of Phillies blunt cigars, five robust hams, a midget bearing a gift certificate for forty gallons of gas, an Underwood typewriter...and, topping this all off, pushed in a wheelbarrow by a circus strongman, a pile of five hundred silver dollars, which rolled up between the leggy women.” Despite the eye-popping array of luxuries and beauty, all the fan can think is “…look at all that ham.”

But don’t worry; this is far from chick lit. The action keeps coming, and Schilling throws plenty of curves. Some twists in plot are subtly foreshadowed. Some, like the barstool that inexplicably appears in a street brawl, come out of left field (if you’ll pardon one more baseball pun). Some are introduced quickly and are either resolved just as quickly, or become a recurring theme. Some seem almost like an aside, or a cameo, emerging later as integral to the plot. Some are nothing more than red herring, leaving this reader scratching her head. The result is an unexpected, thoroughly enjoyable ride with a wholly satisfying but not predictable conclusion.

The title The End of Baseball is, of course, a common refrain from baseball purists. Interleague play? A wild card? It’s the end of baseball! While baseball may no longer be “America’s Pastime,” it has survived many changes and challenges. When a sportswriter puts forth the theory that “war years were somehow recorded differently, in a separate ledger perhaps, records marked with an asterisk to separate them from the legitimate numbers of the hallowed greats,” readers will recall asterisk posters in the stands during the San Francisco Giants’ games last season (not to mention the earlier asterisk after the number 61). Similarly, when a sportswriter in the novel “called on Congress” to mediate an injustice, perceived or actual, readers will be reminded of current subpoenas and testimony on Capitol Hill. The fan can only hope that fears of “The End of Baseball” are again unfounded.

Though baseball fans will certainly love this book, particularly for the edge-of-seat, heart-pounding descriptions of on-field action, non-baseball fans will love the vivid imagery, the rich character depictions, and the reactions of those characters watching and listening to those same pitches and innings.

Chrissie Bonnes, aka The Voice of Reason, usually works more in the GameDay background, cooking for and cleaning up after the esteemed Editor and his children. But this one was right in her sweet spot. (Sorry. One more baseball pun.)

TwinsCentric Blog: Puzzling Contract

This is also published on the TwinsCentric Blog at StarTribune.com:

It’s getting to the point where it is becoming a crusade. I should probably do something about that.

We’ve seen the same scenario play out the past two weeks. The Twins offer a long-term contract to a popular player and are lauded by media and fans. The latest example, a five-year deal to Denard Span, was again roundly praised, despite it seemingly being a goofy contract for the team.

Is “goofy” too strong of a word? Let’s find out by playing out a scenario: what happens if the Twins DON’T offer this deal to Span? If they don’t do the deal, they can pay him almost whatever they want for the next two years. And for the three years after that, they can unilaterally renew his contract at the price an arbitrator sets.

I say "almost whatever they want" because there is a minimum and some precedent. This year and next year, Span would likely make about $1 million combined. Truth be told, he would probably make closer to $900,000 combined, but we’ll round up for the sake of argument.

In 2012, he would be up for arbitration for his first year. In arbitration, the player is paid a salary commensurate with his tenure in the big leagues and his performance. So let’s list the centerfielders who have tenure within a few years of Span and rank them by their OPS last year.

(OPS is On-base Plus Slugging percentage. It’s a REALLY good measure of a team’s ability to score runs. Since players also have those stats, it’s assumed it works well for them too. It also does a decent job of crediting (and comparing) both players who get on-base and players who hit for power.)

So here are the centerfielders, their tenure (expressed in "years.days"), their OPS, and how much they are making or have made in their first year of arbitration:

PLAYER	TEAM	OPS	Tenure	$(M)
Matt Kemp	LAD	0.842	3.049	4
Denard Span	MIN	0.807	1.111
Shane Victorino	PHI	0.803	4.092	3.125
Adam Jones	BAL	0.792	2.139	TBD
Cody Ross	FLA	0.79	4.058	2.22
Grady Sizemore	CLE	0.788	5.056	3
Nate McLouth	ATL/PIT	0.788	4.056	2
Curtis Granderson	DET	0.78	4.077	3.5
Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	0.77	2.037	TBD
Dexter Fowler	COL	0.77	1.027	TBD
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	0.764	3.08	2
Nyjer Morgan	WAS/PIT	0.757	1.12	TBD
Michael Bourn	HOU	0.738	3.028	2.4

First, you’ll notice that Span had a GREAT year last year as far as centerfielders go. He’s nearly at the top of the list, though he’s much closer to that bunch of guys behind him than the guy on top. You might also notice that very few guys with less than three years of service time currently have contracts that cover their arbitration years.

Based on this, how much would an arbitrator say you need to pay him? It looks to be around $3 million, maybe as much as $3.25M, right? Ok, let’s do the same thing for the second year of arbitration. This time I’ll leave off the guys who don’t have contracts yet:

PLAYER	TEAM	OPS	Tenure	$(M)
Matt Kemp	LAD	0.842	3.049	6.95
Denard Span	MIN	0.807	1.111
Shane Victorino	PHI	0.803	4.092	5
Cody Ross	FLA	0.79	4.058	4.45
Grady Sizemore	CLE	0.788	5.056	4.6
Nate McLouth	ATL/PIT	0.788	4.056	4.5
Curtis Granderson	DET	0.78	4.077	5.5
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	0.764	3.08	4

Again, the answer seems pretty clear: somewhere around $5 million. Let’s be generous and say $5.25 million

And for year three, here’s how things look:

PLAYER	TEAM	OPS	Tenure	$(M)
Denard Span	MIN	0.807	1.111
Shane Victorino	PHI	0.803	4.092	7.5
Grady Sizemore	CLE	0.788	5.056	5.6
Nate McLouth	ATL/PIT	0.788	4.056	6.5
Curtis Granderson	DET	0.78	4.077	8.25
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	0.764	3.08	5.5

This one is a little harder, but the $7.5 million that Victorino is making is a pretty good benchmark. We’ll run with that.

So if you add up those salaries, we can reasonably expect him to be paid $17 million over the next five years. That’s what happens if the Twins pay him on a year-by-year basis, making sure he continues to perform and stay healthy. Instead they handed him five years of guaranteed money for $16.5 million?

It’s like a bad informercial. Buy now and you can save $500,000? Really? Are operators standing by, too?

For some reason, long-term contracts equal success in everyone’s heads. It’s praised when it’s done for players like Span or for Joe Mays. More stunningly, it’s praised even after disasters like Joe Mays. But even for sure bets like Span, it doesn’t make sense unless there are some big savings involved.

And Span is a quality player. There has not been a more consistent supporter of Denard Span for the past 2+ years, than me. (Don’t believe me? Check this out. I was a voice in the wilderness, gently mocked for suggesting that Span had turned a corner two years ago.)

I believe Denard Span has been an absolute force. I expect him to continue to be a force. His skill set (with the possible exception of his speed) should hold up reasonably well over the next five years. I believe he’ll be able to handle the temptations that come along with long-term security. And by all accounts, including my personal experience, he’s a legitimately good guy who deserves every good thing that comes his way.

But it’s still goofy to give a player a five-year deal when you have the option of instead giving him five one-year deals. And that’s exactly what the Twins just did. The only reason you do that is if you get significant discounts back in return, and the Twins didn’t.

So what’s going on? I asked several people this weekend, and here are the theories I heard:

1. The Twins got an option year to buy out Span’s first year of free agency as part of the deal. It should be pointed out that it isn’t a cheap option ($9M) and so it’s not a slam dunk they’ll exercise it. But it is a benefit.

2. Mr. Rihanna (Matt Kemp) scares the heck out of them. He may try to force the market much higher though arbitration. There is a benefit in having some cost certainty, in protecting the team from a skyrocketing market.

3. Similar to #2, only ALL teams are worried. MLB teams are worried in general about players driving up salaries through the arbitration process and so there is some pressure to sign deals like this even if there isn’t much cost savings.

4. The Pohlads are positioning the team for a sale in a few years, and these kind of deals make a sale more possible.

They’re all nice theories, and none of them mean a thing because I didn’t ask the people I should have asked – the Twins. I’ll see what I can do in that regard later this week, before this becomes any more of a crusade.

---

I had a fantastic time at the TwinsCentric Twins Viewing Party on Saturday, with one exception.

• We had a very good crowd. Fifty-five people entered the raffle, and we had at least another 10-15 who were there but didn’t want to be in the raffle. That makes 65-70 people, some who came up from Iowa and even from Chicago.


• It started at 11 AM and there were still people there when I left at 6:00, so I'm pretty sure others had a good time too.


• I got to meet a ton of people, some old friends and some new. I’m hesitant to try and list all the writers there because I really don’t want to leave anyone out, but I’ll take a shot: Seth, Nick, Parker, Doogie, Phil MIller, Karlee, Babs, Josh, Andrew, Eric, Scott, k-bro, Roger, Emily and Betsy. And PMac was there in spirit, or rather spirits; he called and bought us a round of shots. Again, if I'm forgetting to mention someone, I apologize, especially becaue I made everyone wear nametags.


• The only bummer was a Twins loss. To the Phillies. My wife's favorite team. I only have one bet on any spring training game and this was it. Now she can make me watch (500) Days of Summer. I'm blaming you, Matt Tolbert.


• Thanks to everyone for showing up and thanks to Major's in Apple Valley for the cheap beer and eats. They were very kind and accomodating. The consensus opinion was that we should do this several times per year, and I agree. Of course, that's the consensus opinion every spring, but I'm hopeful that more places like Major's will step up to sponsor us, and we'll do as many as one per month.

TwinsCentric Blog: There's Always Room for Punto

Hi gang, I just realized I never put a link here. Thursday's post was over at the TwinsCentric Blog at StarTribune.com. It's called There's Always Room for Punto.

Nathan News: Magic 8 Ball Edition

Here's a quick Twins Geek post at the StarTribune.com TwinsCentric blog concerning the news that Nathan has a significant tear of the ulnar ligament in his elbow.

Catching Up

Hey gang, let's use today's post to catch up on some stuff.

TwinsCentric Viewing Party
I gotta jump on this first, because I keep forgetting to talk about it.

This Saturday, starting at noon, is the TwinsCentric viewing party at Major's in Apple Valley (map). I'll be there rooting for the Twins and The Voice of Reason will be there rooting for the Phillies. More importantly, Nick Nelson, Seth Stohs and Parker Hageman will be there along with a litany of other characters. We're expecting a good-sized crowd, and we'll watch the spring training game in a section just for the blogger faithful. We'll have two-for-one appetizers and $2 pints and door prizes that include tickets to Target Field, Maple Street Press Twins Annuals and various other prizes we'll announce throughout the week.

I can't state this strongly enough - I am absolutely giddy about this. I've been waiting since October for a good baseball get-together. We've had a long (and eventful) offseason to catch up. I would like nothing better than to plant my butt on a bar stool and talk baseball for 12 hours. Everything is in play. I'm ruling nothing out. So please, figure out a way to join us.

Contract for Slowey
One thing I overlooked in yesterday's story about the Nick Blackburn contract is that Kevin Slowey in in a very similar position. He enters the season with just one year before arbitration, which puts him in the sweet spot for this kind of a deal. Plus, just looking at peripheral stats like K/9 or H/9, he's at least as promising a candidate as Blackburn.

Oh - except for that "two-screws-in-his-wrist" thing. Slowey underwent surgery last year to fix a wrist problem that has bothered him since September of 2008 and there are no guarantees for him. But if he looks good in spring training, or performs well early in the year, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Twins offer him a similar deal.

And strangely enough, even though he has been nowhere near as reliable as Blackburn has been, I'd be a lot more supportive than I was yesterday. That's strange (and some would say misguided), but true.

Comment of the Day
Wow. You guys blew me away with all the comments and debate yesterday. Good job by you. It was tough to pick a favorite...

...but I'm going to go with JK:

Blackburn needs to produce 6 WAR in 2011, 12, 13 for this to be a breakeven deal. He's probably got a range of 3 to 9 WAR for that time period. Worst case they overspend by $7M. Best case they save $7M.

I'm not crazy about the WAR reference because it means nothing to 97% of all people, but I like the overall attack plan. The way to support this deal, I think, is on a purely financial basis. Show me why it's important that the Twins save that money. This is a step in that direction.

Poor Span
There were other good comments too, several of which wondered why Denard Span hasn't received a similar deal. And the answer is: because Denard is screwed by his service time. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, he only has one year and 111 days of service time, which means that he's not going to be arbitration-eligible until 2012. So the Twins have at least one more offseason to make any kind of strong push for a long-term deal with him. I'm betting it gets done, and I bet it is a pretty long deal. Which makes me happy.

Other Comment of the Day
I forgot to pick my favorite comment about my Vegas Over/Under story on Friday. It comes from neckrolls:

The new PECOTA definitely has some kinks to work out. On the Twins' depth chart, Jeff Manship is counted twice. That explains why every other team is projected to throw 1457 IP (reasonably close to last year's MLB average of 1442 IP), but the Twins are projected to throw 1497.

Take away the extra 40 IP of Manship, and the Twins' depth chart starts to make more sense. That extra 40 IP from Manship is projected at a 5.22 ERA, resulting in about 23 extra ER. Subtract those 23 R from the Twins present total of 801 RA (a preposterous number - the Twins haven't come within 35 R of 800 allowed in the Gardy era) and you get 778 RA to go with 796 RS. That differential gives you a first-order pythagorean record of 83-79 - right in line with Vegas.

I'll take the over.

Love it. First, I had heard rumblings that PECOTA was a bit messed up and that BP was trying to fix it and I love that this verifies that. I love that there are specific errors documented, and I love the historical reference as proof. And I love the word "preposterous," which I don't use nearly enough. I love this comment. I love it so much I'd see it twice in the same weekend, even though we just met.

Target Field Accessibility
There's a relatively new Twins blog called Two Men On with a slightly different focus - the accessibility of Target Field. It sounds like the the bloggers - Sam and Michael, who are teenagers and both use wheelchairs - have a tour of the ballpark coming up and want everyone's list of desired amenities. For those of you interested in providing your list, swing by and offer up your ideas.

The Nathan Injury
I'll be honest - I don't want to talk about this until we know something. Not because it's disrespectful, but just because I'm lazy, and this is a monster topic. Stay tuned.

KFAN
I'll be on KFAN's The Powertrip show this morning at 7:20 AM. You can listen in at 1130 AM or you can stream it.

Seth's Prospect Handbook
Last but not least I wanted to mention that Seth's Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook is out and available. Seth has really stepped up the variety, content and look of this compared to last year's thorough offering, and I can testify that it damn near killed him. This is the sort of gem that doesn't last for long. Buy it while you can here.

Well, that's more than enough for a weeknight. Good night folks.

Twins Risk Getting (Black)-Burned

Minnesota Twins announce they have come to an agreement with RHP Nick Blackburn on a 4-year, $14 million contract with an option for 2014.

Sometimes you need to make a move for more than just financial reasons. Sometimes you do it to avoid risk, or to put your team in a position to compete. Sometimes you do it to go that extra mile, or to signal to the league or your fan base that things have changed. And sometimes you do it because you just plain like a player and what he's done.

This should NOT have been one of those times.

I think it's fair to say, among the sabremetric set, I'm one of Blackburn's biggest believers. His critics throw the word "lucky" around a lot. They point to his low strikeout ratio, his high hit rate, and his mediocre groundball percentage. They look at his 4ish ERA and claim it will almost undoubtedly move the wrong way. They emphatically state that his luck is going to end.

And to that I say: so what? All of our luck is going to end. If he was lucky last year, and he was lucky the year before, who is to say that he won't be lucky again next year, and the next year, and the next?

The game is a game. There are infinite ways to play and win. We get so caught up in our own ability to identify the prototypical high upside power pitcher that we don't appreciate a guy who gets it done any other way. And Blackburn has unquestionably gotten the job done over the last two years, legitimately being the Twins best starting pitcher over that stretch. We should be celebrating this, not dreading the end of it.

So, to recap - I'm a Blackburn bobo. And I still don't like this deal.

To understand why, we need to understand the other option the Twins had. Blackburn is under their control for the next four years, regardless of whether they signed this deal or not. This year they could pay him whatever they wished. For each of the next three years, the Twins could have decided whether to offer arbitration to Blackburn, and then he would have been paid fair market value for a pitcher with his tenure and performance.

So one could take a look at what other pitchers with Blackburn's tenure and performance are making and have a pretty good idea, right now, what the Twins would have to pay Blackburn if they continued to retain him. The future would look something like this:

2010: $.7M
2011: ~$3M
2012: ~$6M
2013: ~$8M

And while we don't have a year-by-year breakdown of Blackburn's contract, a pretty good guess is that is looks like this:

2010: $.7M
2011: ~$2.8M
2012: ~$4.5M
2013: ~$6M

Which gets us back to why you do a deal like this. It has nothing to do with the guy, or the position your team is in, or sending signals to anyone. It only has to do with one thing: money.

Assuming the Twins were going to pay Blackburn for at least the next two years, they are risking about $10 million to potentially save about $4 million. I just don't think you can do that with a low strikeout pitcher. There's too much evidence that they aren't effective for a very long time.

And the Twins should KNOW this. They've done it twice recently. The first time was disastrous and the second time worked out better because the contract was shorter.

The shorter contract was with Carlos Silva, who agreed to a two-year deal with a third year option. Silva was great the first year and terrible the second year. The third-year option for $4 million was cheap enough that the Twins picked it up, Silva ate 200 innings with a 4.19 ERA and then signed his current deal with the Mariners. That worked out because the option year was just three years out.

But Blackburn's option year is five years out, which brings us to our second example: Joe Mays. Mays also had a low strikeout rate, a high hit rate, but had an incredible year in 2001, posting a 3.16 ERA over 232(!) innings. The Twins also signed him to a four-year deal with a fifth-year option for $20 million. (It was more than Blackburn's because Mays was already arbitration-eligible.)

Over the next four years, Mays pitched less than 400 innings, and posted a 5.81 ERA .

Mays' problems weren't necessarily related to his strikeout rate, as he struggled with injuries which included a reconstructive elbow surgery. But that's the point - there are already plenty of risks with young arms to worry about.

Given all those risks, there needs to be a compelling reason to sign a contract like this. And there just isn't one, just like there wasn't back on January 17th, 2002. I can practically copy and paste the conclusion:

I’m a Twins fan, and I hope I’m wrong about this. I hope Nick has a long and prosperous career. I hope executives in baseball circles laud Bill Smith for years to come. I even hope Jim Pohlad saves millions of dollars over the life of this contract. But from an impartial observer this looks like a $14M gamble on a somewhat questionable commodity that the Twins didn’t need to do.

Listening to Vegas

I hate the overrated/underrated game. You know how it goes: "such-and-such team is overrated/underrated" or "such-and-such team exceeded expectations." What I hate is that the standard is so nebulous. Give me something I can evaluate, like wins and losses.

For my money, the best standard for measuring expectations is the degenerate gamblers. Show me guys who have laid serious money on both sides of a number, and I'll show you guys who have done some homework. Which is why I made a point of sifting through some gambling sites tonight to see what the over/under wins number was for American League teams. (BTW, these are found at betus.com.)

AL West
Angels - 84.5
Rangers - 84.5
Mariners - 83.5
A's - 79.5

Here's why I'm glad I did this - because I already fell into the overrated/underrated trap. I've heard so many people tout the Mariners this year that I hinted six weeks ago that I think they're overrated. But 83.5 wins doesn't seem excessive. That feels about right for the Mariners.

By the way, if you're a big Baseball Prospectus PECOTA guy, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is. PECOTA states that the Angels should win about 76 games this year, or 8.5 games less than Vegas. It's the biggest spread between PECOTA and Vegas in the American League. Bet the "under" and double your money.

And for the record, I wouldn't touch that "under" bet with a 10 ft pole. The Angels won 97 games last year, and now we think they're going to win just 84? And PECOTA thinks they'll lose an extra 21 games this year?

AL East
Red Sox 94.5
Yankees 94.5
Rays 89.5
Orioles 73.5
Blue Jays 71.5

Here's a shocker - the wild card team is likely coming from the AL East. Vegas' money is ranking the Rays as the underdog, which isn't totally shocking considering all the money that pours in from the Northeast. For the record, PECOTA likes the Rays a couple games more than Vegas and the Yankees a couple of games less, making it a much closer race. I'd love that to be true. I'd love to see the Yankees miss the playoffs. I'm small and bitter that way.

Now let's get to the one you've all been waiting for...

AL Central
Twins 83.5
White Sox 82.5
Tigers 80.5
Indians 74.5
Royals 71.5

That's the order I would come up with too, with the Twins and White Sox a step or two ahead of the Tigers, and way ahead of the Indians and Royals. But I think Vegas is underestimating the spread between the top two teams and the rest of the division. Both of those teams feel like they're 90-win teams. It would truly be a sucker bet to parlay two "over" bets in the same division, but that would tempt me.

Instead, can I bet against PECOTA? It lists the Twins, White Sox AND Tigers as 80 win teams. If only BP would open a casino.

At StarTribune.com: That's What Everyone Says

I'm a little worried about the non-existent Mauer contract extension.

Bill Smith's Report Card

It's been a great offseason for the Twins, to be sure. But what was so great about it?

On Sunday Nick Nelson and I were Doogie Wolfson's guests on AM1500, and I found myself in the minority on the best offseason move. Here's how they grade out:

Re-signing Carl Pavano (Grade: B)
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Offering arbitration to Pavano was almost a no-brainer, because he was either going to result in a good draft pick or a one-year deal. The latter happened and that's fortunate for the Twins, because there weren't a lot of starting pitchers on the market that would have been a good fit. (And the one who was a decent fit was represented by Scott Boras.)

Signing Orlando Hudson (Grade: B+)
This is the move that is being universally praised, and I'm part of that universe. But just because we had to wait for it doesn't mean it was the most valuable move. Hudson is a great fit who fills gaps at both second base and the second lineup spot. But he was part of a slew of middle infielders who would be good fits, including Felipe Lopez who signed earlier this week at 1/4 of Hudson's salary. I'm adding the "+" grade because there are plenty of indications that the Twins stretched beyond their pre-planned budget to make this happen. That's gutsy, and a good sign for the future.

Signing Jim Thome (Grade: B+)
You have to love a bench signing the simultaneously:
1. boosts offense,
2. provides some veteran leadership and
3. reminds Delmon Young that playing the game for money is a privilege, not a right.
To be fair, this kind of guy also isn't exactly rare. Jermaine Dye is still out there. So is Garret Anderson. You can argue that either would be a better fit than the left-handed hitting Thome. But I'm adding a "+" because adding a bench bat like Thome was a stretch goal, and they achieved it.

Trading for JJ Hardy (Grade A+)
If Hardy goes belly up - and he's certainly gone belly up a couple of times in his career - then I'm dead wrong. But the Hardy move was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.

Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.

------------------------

If you're up early tomorrow morning, I hope you'll turn the dial over to the Powertrip Morning Show on KFAN. I'll be talking Twins with the Hawkey, Sludge and the Superstar at 7:20 and pimping the Twins Annual. If you can't listen locally on the radio, you can listen through their website.

A Caddyshack Confession

So how bad is your baseball addiction?

It is said that the first step on the road to recovery is admitting that you have a problem, and that's what Sarah was trying to do over at Oh, It's THOSE Girls Baseball Blog on Friday. She asks for confessions:

It's time to confess the craziest and/or least socially-acceptable thing you've done for the love of baseball. Don't worry. This is a safe place. Unless you've out and out committed a felony or harmed a puppy, we won't judge.

And she gets them, including some doozies. It's well worth stopping by.

The thing is about being a Twins Geek is that there are no shortage of stories. I asked The Voice of Reason, and she came up with the same top two that I would've come up with, the second of which is the one I'll share today. Sarah, if you want to fire up a Nick Punto Day type blogging festival - #TrueBaseballConfessions or something like that - I'll fully support it and reveal the top one. It contains a quote that TVOR still pulls out on occasion to shame me.

But first, today's story...

It's 2002, and the Twins are making their first postseason appearance since 1991. I've been writing about them the whole year on the initial year of TwinsGeek.com, though I didn't have more than two dozen people reading it before the end of July. But I wasn't going to be able to attend the first two home playoff games because I was in Pennsylvania at my wife's friend's wedding.

In fact, there was some question about how much of Game Four I would get to watch, because it was scheduled DURING the wedding and reception. Game Four was an elimination game for the Twins, and various wedding events conspired against me being able to watch it. I went a little nuts, searching high and low for a TV in some god-forsaken country club, and finally found one in the caddyshack.

I was trying to walk an impossible line, watching as much of the game as I could while also trying to make appearances at the reception with my wife and her friends. In retrospect, it's pretty clear I failed. The final straw was loaded after dinner, when the dancing started. As her friends launched themselves onto the dance floor, I asked "Would you like to go dance?"

"Well, yeah," she replied, shocked that I would even offer.

"Great," I replied. "You go dance with your friends, and when you're done, I'll be in the caddyshack."

Not my finest hour.

But it did make for a pretty good story, recounting the adventure while quoting Caddyshack multiple times. (I've recently posted some of those old archives online, and you can find it here.)

But yeah, I have a story, also starring TVOR, that puts that story to shame. It'll need to wait until the next confession.

------------------------------------

Oh geez, I forgot to feature my favorite comment from Friday. It was an easy choice, from Beth:

August 25, 2005. (We decided we needed to know to celebrate the anniversary of Hor day.)

I am so glad I'm not the only person who remembers the day the recording skipped. A guy sitting with my group of friends said, "Those marketing people think of EVERYTHING. That'll get butts in the seats!"

I'm sure many people we tell think we made it up, but indeed, the recording skipped!

I love knowing this date. First because I feel validated. And second because my friends and I are now brainstorming how we're going to annually commemorate Hor day. I'm assuming (hoping? praying?) it's with hot dogs, and not, um...

Breaking Weekend News: KSTP 1500 Appearance

Hi gang,

I just found out that I'm going to be on KSTP 1500 tomorrow (Sunday) starting at 12:30 to talk about the Twins with Doogie Wolfson. I'm especially excited because Nick Nelson is also going to be there, and he's wrong about almost everything, so it should be entertaining to hear me straighten him out. (I keed, I keed.)

An hour of Twins talk on the last day of February? You betcha!

So what do you want us to talk about? Throw your questions or topics you want covered in the comments and we'll try to get to them. If you can't listen on the radio, you can still tune in. I hope you can.

John

The Best Hormel Row of Fame Song EVER

It's 2005 and I'm attending an afternoon game with a bunch of friends from work. We've done this a few times, so by now I know the Hormel Row of Fame Song is going to illicit some boisterous karaoke. Sometime around the fourth inning, it starts.

When you are at the game
(ba-ba-ba-bum)

Are you in Hormel's Row of Fame?
(ba-ba-ba-bum)..

Except that this time the track gets stuck.

If you are in the lucky seat
(ba-ba-ba-bum)

You'll win a Hor....skip

You'll win a Hor....skip

You'll win a Hor....skip

By this time, the work friends and I are exchanging uncomfortable smiles. The skipping audio seems to goes on forever, but it was probably only three more times before the booth quickly faded it out. At which point I hear the guy behind me remark:

"That WOULD be a lucky seat."

-----------------------------------------

Yesterday's comment of the day was a late entry from blasphemer over at the new StarTribune.com TwinsCentric blog:

Casilla's problem...

is Ron Gardenhire. He's in love with Punto. Casilla would be picked up by another team in an instant. If you want to take a chance on waiving someone do it with Punto. No one is going pick him and his salary up. Tolbert is a hustler, but he is a hack. Send HIM down.

I wanted to address this comment because it's a common complaint about Ron Gardenhire - he's in love with so-an-so or he doesn't play rookies enough. But here's the thing...

Q: Who played second base the most last year?
A: Alexi Casilla.

Q: What did he hit?
A: .202/.280/.259. In 228 at-bats.

Q: How was his defense?
A: His UZR at 2B was -9.6. His UZR/150 was -20.9.

No, Casilla wasn't given free rein. But he was given lots of opportunities, and he mostly sucked:

• To start the season he played second base in 22 of the first 27 games (being replaced in five games by Harris, not Punto). On May 2, hitting .160, he was benched and Tolbert was given a shot.
  
• Because Tolbert also struggled, Casilla was given another week or so at the end of May. He went 6-29.
• He was handed the job again for the last two weeks before the trade deadline. He has 6 hits in 43 at-bats. (To his credit, he also had 10 walks. Which raised his OBP to .264.)
  
• When the Twins acquired Orlando Cabrera, he and Punto split time. Over the next 13 games, he started seven of them. He went 6-22 and after a brief period...
• Was handed the job again for eleven straight games at the end of August. He hit like crazy the first five of them and then got one hit over the last six games.

To get on Gardy for not giving Casilla enough leash is nuts. He gave him enough leash to hang himself, and almost enough leash to hang the rest of the team.

Just so it's clear: I like Casilla. I think he's a good player who just needs to turn a corner. But make no mistake: he has already received far more time than he's deserved. And the person who kept giving him that time was Gardy.

TwinsCentric Post at StarTribune.com

You know I love it when you stop by, but I've scribbled tonight's story, called "Options", over at the new TwinsCentric blog at StarTribune.com. I'd really appreciate it if you would click over and leave me lots and lots of comments.

And speaking of comments, I've noticed we're getting a lot of great ones, so I'm going to try and feature my favorite from the previous entry each day. Yesterday's comes from Shannon who mentioned:

On a side note my 5 year old daughter keeps asking me "When's it going to be Spring time?" With the increase of Twins coverage I am happy to say "Soon."

From your mouth to God's ears Shannon. It can't get here soon enough.

I'll be writing back here again tomorrow, sharing the greatest Hormel Row of Fame song ever played, which is now a permanent title given that Hormel will no longer be partnering with the Twins. I hope to have you return then, and again, please give me your thoughts on today's post over at StarTribune.com.

The Twins Rivals

Historically, who are the Twins biggest rivals?

Nope, not the White Sox. They’ve the rivals now, but that’s a recent development. They just weren’t good enough before this last decade. Really, what drives that rivalry is the obnoxious fans. (Oh, and their loudmouth starting left-handed pitchers. I haven’t forgotten you Mark Buehrle.) There's nothing scarier than a couple of shirtless father-and-son White Sox fans.

The Indians are probably your next guess, because the Twins have a nasty beanball history with them. But for most of the Twins history the Indians weren’t in their division. And once they were, the Indians were dominant (the 90s), followed by the Twins being dominant. (the 00s) We haven’t seen much back-and-forth there.

The Tigers also joined the Twins division in the mid-90s. I suppose you could get fired up about the 1987 ALDS, but that was a sweep by the Twins. And since joining the AL Central, the Tigers were mostly pathetic up until a few years ago. It’s been fun to dance with them in 2006 and 2009, but that's because we won, and that’s as far back as the rivalry goes.

Instead, the team that seems to rise and fall with the Twins isn't in their division any more. It’s the Oakland A’s. At the end of the 1960s the Twins were battling them for the division, with the Twins winning it in 1969 and 1970 and the A’s then dominating the early 70s. And the rivalry became especially feisty back then because Billy Martin was involved.

While most people remember Martin as a manager of the Yankees or A's, he started his coaching career with the Twins. In 1969 as the Twins manager, he made sure he sent a message to the rival A's:

This is an excerpt from a new book, Evaluating Baseball's Managers by Chris Jaffe. I've seen several excerpts, which have been fantastic. You can find the following in a longer excerpt here and you can order it here.

Minnesota hosted Oakland over Fourth of July weekend, with the A’s leading the Twins by a game heading into the three-game series. In the first contest, the Twins exploded with an 8-0 lead after four innings. Rather than relax, Martin rubbed it in so everyone would know who was the big dog in the division. Martin twice ordered Tovar to steal second base even though the lead was safely iced. After his last steal, Tovar took such a big lead at second that Oakland’s pitcher tried to pick him off. In frustration, he instead threw the ball into center. The rattled hurler immediately surrendered back-to-back doubles to the Twins, who romped to victory.

Seeking revenge, the A’s beaned Minnesota’s leadoff batter the next day, which played right into Martin’s hands. The beaning rallied Minnesota’s troops, who scored four runs before the first out was recorded in what proved to a 13-1 blowout. A come-from-behind victory the next day solidified their new division lead, which they never relinquished the rest of the season. Martin had not played to win; he came to castrate.

Martin’s unsporting conduct potentially could motivate the opposition to try harder. Martin never cared about the downside, though. He knew repeated humiliation would cause the opponent’s morale to collapse, while these tactics gave his team more confidence in their future fights. Prior to that series Minnesota had gone 5-4 against Oakland on the season. From that series onward, they won eight of nine games, outscoring the A’s 85-37 in the process. In those future showdowns, Martin asserted Minnesota’s supremacy by intentionally baiting Oakland. He once had a batter steal a base with the team leading 14-4 in the seventh inning. In their final showdown, Minnesota swiped a base when up by six runs. Animals who mark their territory by urination were subtler than Martin.

As the Twins rose again in the 80s, you’ll recall that the other superpower in the division was the A’s, fueled by the Bash Brothers. From 1987 through 1992 the only two teams to with the AL West were the Twins and the A’s.

That final year the race was especially close. With a 60-38 record, the Twins had a chance to deliver a knockout punch to the second place A’s, who were three games back when they visited the Metrodome in late July. Instead, the A’s swept the Twins, including a 5-4 loss in which Rick Aguilera gave up a 3-run home run in the ninth inning. The Twins were swept again in Oakland later that year, and finished the year in second place, six games back.

And in the last decade, even though they were in different divisions, the two team still butted heads. On the field they met in the playoffs twice, with each team knocking the other out in one ALDS series. And off the field, you had the two little engines that could, the low-revenue darlings of either the sabremetric or traditional crowd.

That's three generations of Twins teams that successfully made their way to the postseason, and in each case they needed to tangle with the A's. By most measurements, this should be what makes a rivalry.

Do You Know the Way to Bad Jose?

"When you get down to it and sit down one-on-one with Jose, I have a lot of fun with him," Gardenhire said. "He's a nice kid. I think we can keep him on the right path."

- Star-Tribune

Giggle. Right. Here's a question: when you sit down one-on-one with someone, do you know who else seems like a good guy?

A: Bad guys.

Q: And when you sit down one-on-one with someone, do you know who seems like a bad guy?

A: Blatantly stupid bad guys.

So I think we can surmise that Jose Mijares isn't blatantly stupid, which is encouraging news given his actions since he joined the Twins:

• He screwed up his visa for spring training last year, Twinsfest this year and now spring training this year
• He showed up so obscenely overweight that he cost himself a spot on the 25-man roster for Opening Day
• He walked out on his winter league team last year, and when he returned his manager left him off the playoff roster even though he was sporting a 1.40 ERA
• And of course he incited his own teammate to charge him from the batters box during a critical pennant race game.

That is some solid work in just eighteen months. A very large bad guy - not as smart as, say, a Sydney Greenstreet villain. But apparently smarter than, for instance, Mongo from Blazing Saddles. With just a touch of crazy thrown it to boot....

Looks like the Twins have their Jabba the Hut. Or will, once he gets his visa.

Baseball's Happy Lexicon

With apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams

This shortest of phrases makes our hearts soar
Pitchers and catchers report
With driveways unshoveled and lower backs sore
Pitchers and catchers report
Still bitter that this year the Yankees are kings
We yearn for the vengeance a new season brings
Like Hornsby we stare out the window for spring
Pitchers and catchers report

Four tiny words and hope’s candle’s lit
Pitchers and catchers report
Words shorter than Punto (who gets after it)
Pitchers and catchers report
A winter spent searching for MLB rumors
Praying that Bill Smith makes a big move or
signs our boy Joe. Can’t spring come any sooner?
Pitchers and catchers report

Sunday they’ll gather and Gardy will praise
Pitchers and catchers report
his cherry extract and Hardy’s slick plays
Pitcher and catchers report
Delmon will swing at a wormburning pitch
Justin will smile cuz the pitcher’s his bitch
While Nathan does something bizarre with his lips
Pitchers and catchers report

Finally you take your turn as poet
Pitchers and catchers report
Channel your winter frustration and show it
Pitchers and catchers report
The comments below are a great place to bleat
Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat
(But add words wherever, if like me you cheat)
Pitchers and catchers report

Stats Attack: Kansas City Royals

Yesterday I gave some advice to some new bloggers. "Take risks," I said. "Try stuff, " I said. "The beauty of a blog is that you have nothing to lose," I said.

Then I blow a pretty good night on trying something new, get about halfway done and I'm not particularly happy with that half. Great. If you think I'm not publishing the damn thing, you've got another thing coming.

Recently I saw a copy of another independent program and scorecard from Seattle called Grand Salami. In the middle of it, they have two pages about the teams the Mariners will play that month, one of which is text and the other one is a stats page with a lot of notes written in. I wondered if that stats page might be something I could come up with regularly when the Twins play opposing team in a big series. How hard could it be?

Answer: if you want to do it the way I want to do it, it's a pain. I don't want the basic stats. I want to see OPS, and I want it against lefties and righties. I want ages. I want defensive metrics like UZR/150 and I really want WPA. Ideally I'd also like to see how players did against specific players from the Twins.

There isn't a site that has all those stats in a fairly easy way to grab them. I could probably design a db to grab a bunch of extracts and get close, but that sure ain't happening tonight. So I grabbed a few of them, typed them in and then started on the notes.

Turns out, the notes aren't too easy either. First, without a pdf converter on my PC, there wasn't a great program to go about doing the graphics. Then, I found out that I lacked space to explain some of the stats the way I probably should, like WPA. And since I ended up doing it in MS-Paint, fixing errors was damn near impossible.

Anyway, here is the first stab at it. I was hoping I could put an actual file into my blog someplace, like in a rich text field, but it looks like I'm limited to a .jpg. too. So it'll probably be too small. Mostly this whole entry is a test to see if I click on it if it will get big enough to read.

We'll see. Good night. Feedback is welcome.