Twins Geek's 2007 Cheat Sheet

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OK, all the evidence is in. You've seen them through six months, you've seen them through the playoffs (such as is was). So, what are you gonna do?

Is it crass to start talking about next year this early? Well, yeah, I think so. But in case you haven't noticed, here's the recipe for the end of season articles in the dailies:

Day after clinching loss - recap of clinching loss
Two Days after clinching game - recap of year and what to expect in the offseason

That's about it. A hell of a lot of perceptions are set by that article two days after the season ends, like two years ago when every sportswriter decided that Cristian Guzman would be returning to the Twins. Not that I've been much better. I didn't think there was any way the Twins didn't get a deal done with Corey Koskie, let alone hang onto Jacque Jones.

(There's a lesson there, by the way. Timing in the offseason is important. The Twins didn't necessarily want to keep Jones over Koskie - they lost out on Koskie and decided to put that extra money towards Jones. It's damn important to understand that some of these decisions need to be made very early, even before the free agent starts, let alone heats up.)

Here's the mission as first published a couple of weeks ago: create a competitive team for 2007 while keeping the total payroll under $67 million (a pretty realistic guess as to next year’s total). I'd encourage you to try it yourself from the link above before continuing.

But I'm gonna get started below. I'll start with players who will likely be back, including listing their approximate salaries, along with some reasoning, in case you want to go in a different direction.

Below that, we’ll list the positions where there will be more debate, and list some of the players (and how much they cost) for each of them. You can build your team, and compare it to how Ryan does this offseason – just make sure it comes in under $67 million. (Or figure out how you’re going to get Carl to part with more.) Today I'll list my choices. Tomorrow will be my best guess on what Terry Ryan will do.

The Core
Lineup

Role	Player	$M
C	Joe Mauer	$ 3.50
1B	Justin Morneau	$ 2.50
SS	Jason Bartlett	$ 0.40
RF	Michael Cuddyer	$ 4.00
Other	Torii Hunter's Buyout	$ 2.50

If you've already done the earlier version, you'll notice I pulled Castillo and Punto from this list. I want more offense and less piranhas. I think they'll be back below, but I'm keeping the option open for now. On the core lineup, we’ve spent $12.9 million.

Starting Pitching

Starter 1	Johan Santana	$ 12.00
Starter 2	Francisco Liriano	$ 0.40
Starter 3	Boof Bonser	$ 0.40

We’ll assume Brad Radke retires (or at least doesn't pitch next year) and that Liriano starts the year with the Twins. They'll cover for the injury risk by keeping one of our other youngsters around (Garza, Baker, Durbin, Slowey) in Rochester as a 6th starter. That leaves two spots open, and our total now is at $25.7 million.

Bench

BKUP MI	Luis Rodriguez	$ 0.40
BKUP C	Mike Redmond	$ 1.25

Redmond’s under contract (though terms haven’t been released) and we’ll assume Rodriguez comes back as a middle infielder. That leaves at least two spots open that can be filled with veterans or farm players, and just a small bump to $27.35 million.

Bullpen

Closer	Joe Nathan	$ 5.25
RH Setup	Juan Rincon	$ 1.50
LH Setup	Dennys Reyes	$ 1.00
MR	Jesse Crain	$ 0.40
MR	Pat Neshek	$ 0.40
Long MR	Willie Eyre or Matt Guerrier	$ 0.40

Now that Reyes is in the fold, the only assumption we have to make is that the Twins will offer Rincon arbitration. We’ll also assume six bullpen spots for now, but if you’re attached to Eyre and Guerrier, you can bring one back as the 25th man. Our final tally is $36.3 million….

Summary
We’re 60% of the way there! Fifteen of the 25 roster spots are spoken for, and $36.3 million is spent. That leaves $30.7 million to fill eight spots. Let’s see how you want to spend it…..

The Options

Position	Name	$	Comments
CF	Hunter	9.5	The big question is answered. One more year to prove his foot can stay healthy on this surface, without all the "I want to paly 162 games" nonsense. A month ago, I might have chosen a platoon of Tyner and Ford, but the risk on not being able to sign a free agent with that money is big, and the Hunter decision must be made first. Plus, I want fewer piranhas, not more.
3B	Punto	2.5	I know many want a bigger bat at third base, but there aren't any on the free agent market. Seriously, here's the list. The only impact bats at that position are Aramis Ramirez, who reportedly has a deal in place with the Cubs, and Aubrey Huff, who is left-handed. I'd support the Twins attempting a trade, but that hasn't worked out too well recently, especially for a big right-handed bat. I also believe that Punto's defense is better at third than second - he seems to be more a reaction guy than a range guy - so I'm hesitant to move him.
2B	Castillo	5.75	Here's the toughest decision on this list. Alfonso Soriano lacks the plate discipline you woule like to see from a middle of the order hitter, but he's right-handed, has power and speed, and would be a great fit between Mauer and Morneau. He's going to cost $13 million (at least), but that's affordable if Castillo is signed, and he'll be a nice replacement to Torii next year. Finally, there's no risk here, because Ryan can either keep Castillo or trade him based on whether he "wins" Soriano. But I just can't find that extra $7 million, and believe me, I've tried. If I have $7.25M left over when I'm done with the rest of this list, I'll consider it.
LF	Kubel	.4	Getting Kubel's bat into this lineup is a priority for me, I'll admit. If his knees can't handle left field in the dome, we'll swap him back and forth with...
DH	Rondell White	3	Once he regained his health, he was great, and well worth the money. Timing also is a factor. The Twins will need to decide on this option before they know if the can get someone like Frank Thomas.
4th starter	Woody Williams	4	I'll admit it, I'd like a veteran to provide playoff experience, eat innings, and mentor the younger guys. But I also don't want to block the talent coming through the pipeline, and I don't see that player on the free agent list. Williams is close. I'd gamble on Eaton. I won't on Carlos Silva, or at least not at that money.
5th starter	Garza	.4	There's too much talent in the minors to not leave a spot for it to prove itself. I'll got with Garza for now, but Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Durbin and others could also be projected here.
backup IF	???	.5	I don't know who it will be, but it'll be someone cheap.
4th OF	Tyner	1	There needs to be a decent backup for Hunter, and a platoon of Tyner and Ford might be the answer. Tyner is locked up first, because the Twins will need to make a decision on him first.
25th spot	Ford	.75	see directly above
TOTAL		$27.8

Sigh. There's $3M to spare there, which is just painful, because if you can find another $4M, a premier right-handed hitter could find his way here. There are plenty of options (and I'm sure you'll list the best of them in the comments) but I can tell you my favorite - Carl opening his wallet.

We'll be back tomorrow with our best guess on how Terry Ryan is going to fill out this sheet. We'll see you then.

2006 Postmortem

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It would be nice to publish something about how great the year has been. This team deserves that. It may have been one of the most rewarding regular seasons any Twins team - and maybe any Minnesota team - has ever had. On the other hand, there are reasons postmortems are done immediately, and that's the way this is going to go....

Geez, it's hard to judge a team by their postseason
There's almost no truly analytical approach one can use. Most will claim the regular season is a more accurate view, and it's tough to argue with that. On the other hand, nobdoy dreams about just winning 95 games. The playoffs count. And you could make a fair argument that the last three games were worth the same as the previous 162. I mean, would we really have celebrated a pennant race and division championship if we would have know this week was going to go this way? Hell no.

But I'm sensitive to the overreacation that can result from watching three games against one team - and a very good team at that. Evidence is in short supply, so it becomes a vote by perception. That has a bad rap, but isn't necessarily a bad thing. As Malcolm Gladwell points out in Blink, instantaneous perceptions have likely been cultivated by millions of years of evolution to be invaluable. We should trust them, and we usually do. So let's go with some perceptions:

The team looked unprepared for the bright lights
That's not an easy thing to admit, frankly, but you'll have trouble finding anyone who disagrees with it. I've spend umpteen words pointing out how solid Jason Bartlett's defense has been, but he was terrible. For two years I've claimed that Jesse Crain should have been brought in for Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS, and today I couldn't feel more wrong about that. Joe Mauer had a number of weak swings, which I had previously chalked up to being worn down, but he had quite a bit of rest the last week plus. If you're looking for an LVP offensivly, he's at the top of the list.

The bottom line is that the Twins failed to make a a lot of plays, both offensively and defensively.

The Piranhas were overrated
And they likely have been since they got that nickname. Nick Punto and Bartlett didn't hit worth a damn in September, and probably should swap places depending on the pitcher. Jason Tyner lost his job, and I don't know I trust him to ever be more than a platoon center fielder on a winning team.

That leaves Luis Castillo. He was passable in Sept, but not great, and shaky in the playoffs. He showed some playoff savvy the first game, but really screwed up in not advancing a runner to third with no outs. he was terrible in Game 2. He wasn't particularly good in Game 3. I still don't know what to make of him. For most of the season I thought he felt like he was a little too cool to play aggressively. Later, I wrote it off to injury. Either way, I'm not sure I can trust him to be much above average next year.

It's a nice nickname, but I think we need less of them.

Johan Santana may need to focus more on winning and less on strikeouts
It might be time for Santana to consider how much he shows certain pitches early in the game, particularly that devastating changeup. It seems that every time the A's hit a ball hard, it was a changeup, like they were sitting on it, especially when they had two strikes. It's a great strikeout pitch, but I'd love to see his strikeout rate early in a game versus later. (Actually, I can check that. Wait a minute. Hmm, it looks like he strikes out 29% of batters in innings 1-9, 26% in innings 4-6 and 24% after six innings). OK, so the statistics don't support me. I still think that he needs to show less to good batters in early innings.

The bullpen might just need a hierarchy
God forbid I suggest that pigeon-holing a guy into a role might enhance their performance as the stakes are raised, but the bullpen looked as crummy as it's looked since the 2002 playoffs when they were clearly overworked. Coming into this series, this bullpen looked as deep as any the Twins had ever had, but they were crummy under the bright lights. Maybe, just maybe, the comfort level of having roles defined such as "I pitch the eighth inning" means something to these guys. Maybe more than "if I get this guy out, I might get to pitch to the next guy, but if I don't, the left-hander is coming in". Or maybe they were just overworked in the regular season. I don't know, but it's worth noting.

They were cold
I'll be honest - I don't know what this means, or if it makes any difference. But Sunday's excitement glossed over that this team absolutely backed into the division championship. IN fact, they weren't really challenged for the wild card after the middle of September when the White Sox were beat up by - oh, yeah, it was the Athletics. That explosion we saw on Sunday might have been more about relief than excitement. The players might have understood that they weren't quite that good. Or at least they didn't prove to themselves that they really were as good as they were.

So, anyway, after watching a sweep and having a couple of beers, that's one geek's take. Do with it what you will. Tomorrow (or maybe even later today) we'll be back with the 2007 GM Cheat Sheet filled out Twins Geek style - and then my best guess on how Terry Ryan will do it.

Links of the Day for Game 3

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Brad Radke has pitched for the Twins for twelve seasons. It is rare, in the age of free agency, for a player to spend that many years with one team, but Radke has remained. He’s been the constant—none of his teammates from that 1995 squad remain with the team (and, based on their 56 wins (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/1995.shtml), that’s probably a good thing). Now, today, he takes the hill for what could be the final time.

This series has not gone as planned. Frustration has mounted (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/722385.html). But today is not the day to dwell on plays that were not made. Today is the day to put that aside and give Brad Radke his due.

His arm could remove itself from his body at any moment, but he takes the hill in Oakland today, looking to get the ball to Santana in a Game 4. Regardless of today’s outcome, we need to credit Radke for the pain he has pitched through, and we also should credit the rest of this team for making its improbable playoff run. They’ve given Radke one last shot, to go out the way he should.

Here’s an “oh Canada” take on Radke (http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061005.w-twinsas5/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20061005.w-twinsas5), found thanks to the incomparable Athletics Nation (http://www.athleticsnation.com/).

Jim Caple gives Brad some props as well (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2006/columns/story?columnist=caple_jim&id=2614808).

We’re all about small victories here, and this (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/playoffs/2006-10-05-ellis-out_x.htm) will help the cause a little.

The AL Central isn’t dead yet. The Tigers won Game Two of their series yesterday, knotting it at one-all (http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061005/NEWS99/61005012/1048/SPORTS).

Homefield advantage is tough to hold. The Padres dropped Game Two yesterday (http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20061005-1819-bbn-cardinals-padres.html), sending them to St. Louis in a 2-0 hole. Sound familiar?

Enjoy the game today, even if it doesn’t go well. It’s been a hell of a ride.

Oakland Athletics

The following is a playoff preview from October's GameDay

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On May 30, the Oakland Athletics lost to the Kansas City Royals, eight to seven. It was Oakland’s third straight loss, and their tenth in the last eleven games. There record was just 23-29. Less than three weeks (and a ten-game winning streak) later, the A’s wrapped up a three-game inter-league sweep of the Dodgers, putting them seven games over .500. The rest, as they say, is cliché.

As the A’s watched their record swell from two games over .500 to twenty, they’ve witnessed the resurgence of someone familiar to Twins fans everywhere. Last season, Frank Thomas watched from the sidelines as the White Sox won the World Series. The health of his ankle was in serious doubt, and Chicago replaced him with Jim Thome. Thomas limped (literally) to the Bay, inking an incentive-laden one year deal worth just $500,000 in base salary. Fortunately for both the Big Hurt and the team, Thomas is cashing in on nearly every one of those $2.6 million of performance bonuses (although, somehow, I doubt he will collect the $50,000 bonus for winning the Gold Glove—yes, it’s in the contract).

At 38 years old, Thomas isn’t just an iron-clad lock for the Comeback Player of the Year award—he’s making a legitimate case for Most Valuable Player. In a lineup that has seen Mark Ellis, Milton Bradley, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, and Mark Kotsay struggle with injuries (and first baseman Dan Johnson just plain struggle), Thomas has been the stabilizing factor, putting up a .950 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the clean-up spot.

At Thomas’s side is Moneyball hero Nick Swisher. Along with providing manager Ken Macha with some much-needed lineup flexibility (while he’s listed as a left fielder, he has actually played slightly more games at first base), Swisher provides a second fearsome bat. His combination of power (a slugging average near .500) and patience (drawing about one hundred walks) has been indispensable for Oakland.

Two of Oakland’s “Three Aces” (Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder) have departed the team, but the pitching staff remains a strength. While assumed staff ace Rich Harden has struggled with injury problems all year, Oakland has found success with a rotation of former Cy Young winner Barry Zito, youngsters Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, spell-check nightmare Kirk Saarloos, and winter free agent signing Esteban Loaiza.

But the real strength of the staff is the bullpen. Oakland finished with the third-best bullpen ERA in the league, led by second-year stopper Huston Street and his sub-3.00 tally. The A’s also got excellent production out of Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer (speaking of the unspellable), Kiko Calero, and the aforementioned Saarloos, who has split time between the pen and the rotation. With the problems Oakland experienced with their starting staff, it was the bullpen that propelled them to the AL West championship.

When playoff baseball starts, with its shorter rotation and intense games, having a superior bullpen is often the difference between an unceremonious exit and a champagne shower. And that strength, along with the mashers in the middle of the lineup, makes the A’s a dangerous team and a legitimate contender for October glory.

Game 2: Things end poorly, or they don’t end at all.

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Yesterday, before Game Two, my son chose his first Twins shirt. It was a t-shirt, dark blue, with “Twins” emblazoned across the front. And #48 and “Hunter” on the back.

It was appropriate. While watching a game a couple of months ago, the announcer referred to “Torii” and my son immediately turned to me and said “Is that Torii Hunter?” It was the first time he had recognized a Twins batter. Hell, it was the first time he had shown any recognition that a sports team was made up of individuals.

And if there’s one thing Torii has been, it’s an individual. He hasn’t been afraid to criticize the organization. Or to talk publicly about his contract status. Or to charm audiences nationwide with his personality. It’s part of why he’s perceived as so valuable to the franchise. A player can’t be the face of a team if he isn’t memorable. Torii, on and off the field, has given plenty of memories.

Unfortunately, the memory that may stick for a while was yesterday’s. Lost in all the talk about the boneheaded decision to dive for that ball was a sadder truth: that was a catchable ball. A late break and limited speed led to the decision to dive. Most center fielders would have caught that ball. Certainly, Athletics centerfielder Mark Kotsay has demonstrated that he would have caught that ball. There are two Twins, Jason Tyner and Lew Ford, who likely would have caught that ball.

And I wonder if the reason Hunter dove is because he knew, from years of flying around and flying higher than most, that he should be able to catch that ball.

This year he can’t. And he hasn’t been able to since he returned from the disabled list. Everybody recognizes this, and yet nobody wants to take the next step. Torii admits his foot is making him run differently. The media says he’s not making catches he used to. The coaching staff talks about how he’s playing at 70%. The tone is similar to that used when talking about gas prices. After all, what can you do?

Turns out, there are things you can do about gas prices. But it’s got to get bad. Real bad, because the next step is too painful. There’s too much invested in our SUVs and our suburban office complexes and low-priced, outer-ring, dream homes. Better to wait it out a while. It might get better.

And there’s too much invested in Hunter, too. Money, you say? Sure, but that’s the tip of the iceberg. There’s a coaching staff who remembers his home run to seemingly ice game 2 of the 2004 ALDS. And fans that remember him giving notice to the All-Star Game audience that Minnesota defense can match roid-induced offense. And there’s all those damn kids that are wearing that #48.

So we delayed the decision, at least until the offseason. The procrastination was rewarded by a torrid offensive pace in September, which helped overlook the continued defensive deficiencies. Three days ago, in most fans minds, Hunter was inked into the 2007 lineup, not just the 2006 playoff roster.

Then a short fly yesterday tried to remind us that Hunter’s limited range likely isn’t temporary. The stress fracture that’s causing him to run differently wasn’t caused by a fluke kamikaze play this year, it was caused by repeatedly pounding it on that damnable padded concrete parking lot we call “the outfield”. The home run wasn’t the result of a premier center fielder trying too hard. It was the result of a player, and a team, and a franchise and a state ignoring a hard truth - that their premier center fielder no longer was. And was no longer likely to be, at least not in this unforgiving ballpark.

The short fly tried to remind us, but for the most part it has failed. We’ll live in denial for at least one more game, because dammit, we want things to be different. I certainly do, partly because I’d like my 6-year-old to be able to watch his favorite Twin a bit longer. But mostly because there’s something I don’t want to end. It’s the feeling of privilege – that’s the word – to have watched Hunter’s defensive efforts. Including his latest disastrous one.

Links of the Day for 10/5/06

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I made the mistake of listening to sports radio on the way home from work today, I tuned in just long enough to hear a local Twin Cities sports personality say that the A's were out-pitching the Twins. Fortunately, espn.com has a cool feature which rates the teams' playoff pitching prowess. For game 1, they gave Santana an A- and Zito a B-. For game two, they gave Boof a C+ and Loiza a B-. These statistics don't tell the whole story, but I don't think you can blame the Twins pitching on our 0-2 deficit.

• Clearly, the fault for the Twins shoddy play lies in the lack of homer hankies. The dome and all of the stores around the dome are sold out. Looking around the stands, they did not appear to be in the hands of the fans. Did Billy Beane buy them up with all of that money hey saved signing Frank Thomas as his DH?
• Scanning through the A's Nation, I've discovered we share something with the A's fan other than love for a small market team. We share the same feelings for espn.
• This picture has been plastered all over the net- it was featured on the front page of foxsports.com, espn.com, startribune.com and twincities.com. Torrii's botched dive has already been written to death, and the daily papers haven't even been printed yet!
• If you haven't already, check out Micheal Cuddyer's blog. Fortunately it sounds like he and the rest of the Twins are less pessimistic than myself.
• On bat-girl, a fan in Oakland has posted an inspirational letter telling the twins nation to keep the faith.
• If that doesn't cheer you up, perhaps some of the Gamle-Tron's confidence in the Twins can rub off on you.

Game 1: Nuts

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The orange shirt sits in the corner, and it won’t be touched again until the playoffs are over. I’ll be getting a haircut tomorrow, since these hairs on my head obviously aren’t doing their job. And the rally pistachios – 99 cents of mellow salty smoothness – won’t appear at another game.

They’re all dead to me for the remainder of October. That’s the power of the playoffs, especially when the Twins lose a game like this. There were too many Oakland hits that fell just fair. Too many Twins hits that went right at a glove. Not that it was all luck – Oakland deserved that game – but one got the feeling that things weren’t quite aligned.

I'm sure the rally pistachios did their best. I blame myself for being slow to open them before Cuddyer grounded out to end the sixth. They were distributed just prior to Rondell’s home run. And I’m giving them full credit for Cuddyer’s Metrodome-assisted “triple”.

But we can’t forget the eighth inning. Any rally token worth it’s juju MUST get the lead runner from second to third base when there’s no outs. In a day full of miscues, few of which hurt the Twins, that one felt like the difference in the game. Like the Twins effort, the legumes came to life too late and provided just enough to lose.

So tomorrow, the kids will be going to the game, I’ll be wearing the numberless Twins jersey, and wearing a hat on my neatly coifed haircut. The pistachios will be left in a bin at Cub. Time for the popcorn to step up to the plate.

Twins Takes
Random, pistachio-free notes from yesterday’s game, featuring insight you can only get watching a game from 550 feet away...

• Maybe the biggest, and most disappointing surprise was the complete lack of Homer Hankies. It was apparent in the first inning that nobody had them, and about 10 seconds later it was apparent that nobody missed them much.
  
  There was a part of me that was pleased, since it’s started to feel forced, and a bit more profit-oriented than in the past. Are the proceeds even going to the Twins community fund anymore? And would it kill them to give them out to attendees of the opening game?
  
  But mostly, it’s sad, primarily because tomorrow will be my kids’ first Twins playoff game. I don’t know how they’re going to react, sitting 550 feet away from the action, following a game that they don’t completely understand, and not having the unfettered access to popcorn or ice cream that exists when the crowds are smaller. But I wanted them to experience it in part because I wanted them to feel what it’s like to be a part of 50,000 people fabricating a textile snowstorm.
  
  And now, I think that’s gone. And I’m not sure what’s next. If the Twins come up empty tomorrow, odds are we’ll need to wait at least a year to answer that question.



• It was sure nice to see that the Twins haven't lost their ability to run themselves out of a an early inning in the playoffs. That didn’t get nearly enough attention in the 2004 ALDS because Juan Rincon gave up the home run to Ruben Sierra, but the Twins had several opportunities snuffed during that game because they were “aggressive” on the bases.
  
  In reality, I was encouraging Luis Castillo to run. I’m not going to let that stop me from being bitter.



• The playoffs isn’t really the time to start something new, but I would’ve liked to see the Twins swap Jason Bartlett and Nick Putno in the order when they face southpaws.



• If the Twins are looking for a new revenue stream, I suggest they take a collection to make sure that Bert Blyleven NEVER leads us in singing “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” again. I’m in for $5. It wasn’t a stretch. It was a hymn.

Sorry folks, I’d like to talk more, especially about the danger of Santana falling in love with striking out people with his changeup, but I’m done. See you tomorrow at Game 2.

Links of the Day for Game 1, ALDS

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The playoffs kick off at noon today, and like many of you, I’m really unhappy about when the Twins are scheduled to play. As an entry level worker at an office without a television outside of Minnesota, I have no chance to see the games live. Which leaves me with a dilemma: do I Tivo it and see if I have the will power to avoid my normal, sports related internet sites? Or do I follow along on MLB Gameday?

And why do I have to make this decision for all of the games? How is this fair? Or an intelligent decision for MLB? I know that New York is the bigger market by far, but is it really intelligent to insure that entire fan bases might not be able to watch a single one of their team’s playoff games?

Oakland fans are equally up in arms, but they aren’t sitting on their hands about it. They’re taking their issues to MLB. I already made a phone call, and I urge you to call or send an email as well. The cynic in me says that it won’t matter, but maybe it will finally make MLB understand that the small market teams are just as important to their league as the big market ones (a guy can dream, right?)

Whether or not you’ll be able to see it, it should be a pretty good series. The Athletics have a quality pitching staff, play solid defense and have some big boppers in Frank Thomas and Nick Swisher. Want to know more? Well, that’s what the quick links are for.

• Athletics’ Nation compares the two teams and my guess is you’re going to like their prediction.


• One of Billy Beane’s famous maxims is that the playoffs are a crapshoot. Since then, he’s revised his master plan, finding new inefficiencies to exploit. And he’s revised his view of the postseason to go along with it.


• The Athletics Supporters have three keys to the series for each team.


• Deadspin is previewing all of the division series as well. They have predictions, and run downs on all the teams, including the Twins and Athletics.


• If you were at the game on Sunday, you probably had an amazing experience. If you had any doubt, so did Pat Neshak.

Enjoy game one everybody. And Win Twins!

Dugout Splinters: Oakland Athletics

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The Short Version

Whew! For a second it looked like the Twins would have to face the Yankees, and it’s so much better to face the Athletics, isn’t it? Wrong. With their rotation and bullpen, they’re arguably a tougher team to beat in a five game series. They kill you with their defense, their bullpen, and an occasional long ball from Thomas or Swisher.

Don’t Know Much Philosophy

Stop me if you’ve heard this someplace before.

A small market team has a multi-year run where they’re competing with the big boys. They make three straight playoff appearances, but fail to make much noise. More recently they’ve failed to make the playoffs, mostly because their division was so loaded.

This year, their young pitching staff, and particularly their bullpen, propelled them to an incredible second half of the year. They have a pair of great bats - one youngster and one MVP candidate - but most of the rest of the lineup needs to do the little things well to succeed.

With similar payroll limitations and similar success stories, the Twins and Athletics have become icons for opposing philosophies about baseball. The Athletics have been hailed as the progressive thinking organization, embracing the sabermetric community and a trend towards brash young executive outsiders. The Twins have been portrayed as the antithesis of this philosophy, emphasizing traditional scouting and a stable organization of baseball lifers. The two organizations have been endlessly compared and contrasted, but mostly contrasted.

So why are the end results so much alike?

What’s Working

Billy Bean’s Offseason Deals - This winter, in true Moneyball fashion, the Athletics tried to exploit a perceived market inefficiency – obtaining talented “clubhouse cancers”. First they traded for Milton Bradley, (yes, that’s his real name) who had been traded by the Indians and the Dodgers despite being a center fielder with speed and power entering the prime of his career. He missed a good chunk of the season with an injury, but when healthy he’s been the Athletics third best hitter.

The biggest offseason gamble was signing Frank Thomas, who wasn’t just a clubhouse cancer; he was a fragile clubhouse cancer. He hasn’t managed to stay compltely healthy this year, but he’s batted enough to qualify for the end-of-year awards, and will almost certainly win Comeback Player of the Year. In fact, with 38 home runs (including 10 in September) and 108 RBI (30! in Sept) in an otherwise anemic lineup, Thomas has a stronger argument for the American League’s Most Valuable Player than Derek Jeter. Best of all for the cash-strapped Athletics, he was only guaranteed $500,000 this year, though he’ll likely make almost $3 million when all his incentive bonuses are paid. That’s still a bargain for his production.


Youth - Oakland’s other power source has been second year player Nick Swisher. Swisher had a monster April and May, but has slipped significantly in the middle of the season before bouncing back with a strong September. He’s only hitting .254, but his 35 home runs and 95 RBI are second on the club. At just 25 years old, he looks to be a productive player whom Oakland can count on in the future.

The Defense – Oakland’s reputation is that of an over-muscled softball team, going back to the Bash Brothers and continuing through the Giambi Brothers. But this version is the polar opposite of that perception. They now live on pitching and defense, and if you think that’s playing the game “the right way,” you’ll love this team.

I’d like to spout some statistics about how fantastic Oakland’s defense is, but the statistics that are usually cited are mostly worthless, and the statistics that might be more useful are both obscure and lack obvious value. Nevertheless, in their May visit, they were clearly the best defensive team to come through the Metrodome this year. Watch and judge for yourself.

The Bullpen – Everyone is wondering how the Athletics ran away with the AL West. The answer is their bullpen. Barry Zito is one of the most highly regarded starting pitchers in baseball, and he leads the Athletics rotation in ERA. But there are seven members of the Athletics bullpen who have ERAs lower than him.

They’re led by closer and 2005 Rookie-of-the-Year Huston Street (3.23 ERA). Street did blow two saves in the Athletics’ last ten games of the season, but he also followed that up by striking out the side for his 37th save a couple days later.

The other dominant setup man the A’s will lean on is Justin Duchscherer, who saved eight games this season while Street was out with a groin injury. But there’s hope here, too. Duchscherer didn’t pitch this weekend because of a recurrence of back pain. He’s supposed to be fine for this series, but that might explain why he walked two batters in 1/3 of an inning in his last appearance.

How the Twins Win

There’s a reason that Twins fans wanted to play the Athletics instead of the Yankees, and isn’t just the bad Yankee juju that has popped up in previous playoffs. They can be beat if a team plays solidly. Scrape together some runs against their pitching and defense and then make sure you don’t let Thomas and Swisher beat you. The Twins have some experience with that, having beaten the A’s six times this year out of the ten games they played.

On the Hill
Athletics: Barry Zito (16-10, 3.83 ERA)

• 2006: 221 IP, 211 H, 151 K, 99 BB, 27HR


• 2005: 14-13, 3.86 ERA, 228.1 IP, 171 K


• Zito is a left-handed Cy Young award winner. Read that sentence again and then remind me - why did we want to face these guys again?


• He’s famous for his curveball. It’s so good that it’s not uncommon for the umpire to be fooled by it.


• It seems like every year Zito is the subject of trade rumors. And yet, of the “Three Aces” that the A’s carried into their last playoff run, Zito’s the only one who hasn’t been traded.


• This year the rumors started as soon as Loaiza was signed, and didn’t stop until the trade deadline had passed. The team most often rumored to be interested was the Mets.


• He’ll be a free agent next year, and likely be the shiniest ring on the shelf. After all, the guy has won 148 games, has a career ERA of just 3.55, and is just 28 years old.


• Not too surprisingly, most Twins have struggled against Zito, but Phil Nevin and Rondell White have hit him and hit him hard. Combined they’ve hit .354 with 3 homeruns in 31 at-bats.

Tuesday: Johan Santana (19-6, 2.77 ERA)

• 2005: 16-7, 231.2 IP, 238 K, 2.87 ERA.


• 2006: 233.2 IP, 186 H, 245 K, 47 BB, 24 HR


• Led the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts and innings pitched. Here’s your 2006 Cy Young award winner. Unanimously.


• So let me get this straight – he’s been a full-time starting pitcher for three seasons and he has two Cy Young awards and one third place finish? Seriously? We’ve spent a lot of time talking this year about how beneficial the trade of AJ Pierzynski has been, but don’t forget that Santana was acquired for NOTHING.


• After two sub-standard starts in a row, he put any worries to rest by pitching eight innings and giving up just two runs in his last start of the year.


• Right about now, you’re probably wondering how much longer he’ll be around. He’s signed through 2008. If he hadn’t signed a long-term deal before the 2005 season, he would be a free agent this upcoming offseason.

Thanks for stopping by. Tomorrow we'll have a Game 1 recap. See you then.

Wanna vend?

Lots of Twins stuff below, including Sam's links of the week, so feel free to scroll down, but something has come up an I thought some of you might be interested.

Because of the noon start on Tues and Weds, several of our usual vendors can't be selling GameDay before the game. So, we're recruiting vendors. We anticipate over a thousand sales, and vendors get $0.60 of each one, plus you'll be supporting solid baseball coverage in the Twin Citis while being a part of the excitement. You'll need to be there about 10:00 AM, and you'll be given a corner and some guidance. If you're interested, let me know and I'll put you in touch with our vendor coordinator.

Thanks,
Twins Geek

Dugout Splinters: Minnesota Twins

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Status Report – This team has defied every expectation, both good and bad. When they were supposed to be great, they were awful. When they were supposed to be unbeatable, they couldn’t gain a game on the leaders. And when they were supposed to be finished, they won a division.

So is it good or bad that we’re excited to face the A’s instead of the Yankees? At this point, I have no idea. I just know it won’t be what I expect.

What’s Working

Name me the Twins’ hottest hitter. I dare you.

No, it’s not Torii Hunter. Maybe you chose Torii because he’s the name most associated with the franchise, and maybe you chose him because he’s often been referred to as unbelievably hot (and not just by The Voice of Reason) over the last month. He has been unbelievably hot, hitting .314 with nine home runs in September. That’s great, but Hunter’s weakness, patience at the plate, has limited his ability to get on-base, decreasing his value. (Though, when he’s been on base, he’s made things happen. He had six stolen bases just last month.)

Then it must be Justin Morneau, right? Well, Morneau has been awfully good, despite (or maybe because he’s) not hitting many home runs recently. Justin “-credible” Morneau had just two home runs in all of September, but hit .348 and drove in 19 runs. In the past, when he’s hit for average, it’s been a precursor of hitting for power, as pitchers adjust to his opposite field hitting by trying to sneak balls past him on the inside of the plate.

If we want to focus on batting average, we might want to look at the number of the American League’s batting champion, Joe Mauer. “Chairman” Mauer has regained his swing and his confidence in September, hitting .329 with patience (16! walks) and power (.506 slugging percentage). He should also be slightly more rested as he’s had three off days in the last week. But he’s still not the Twins hottest hitter.

That honor belongs to the most unlikely candidate of all – Rondell White. Yes, the same guy that inspired you to make that #24 voodoo doll back in June. And stuff it with firecrackers in July. White’s overall numbers are still pathetic because he did so much damage before the all-star break, but it’s been a different story since his return from the disabled list, and especially in September. He’s hit for nearly as much power as Hunter (.568 slugging percentage) while hitting .351.

Combine those four with Michael Cuddyer, whose production has remained steady in the critical spot between Mauer and Morneau, and for the first time in fifteen years, the Twins have a middle of the lineup that should cause some teams concern. And just in time.

What’s Not Working

For several months we waited for the light-hitting infielders to come back to earth. For several months they defied us, even earning praise and a “Piranhas” nickname from White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen.

At which point they came crashing back to earth.

Hey, I like the piranha concept as much as anyone, but for the last month they’ve been more hype than bite. Jason Tyner has been put into a platoon role because he not only struggles to hit left-handers (.265 BA vs. LH pitching), he struggles to even get on base against them (1 walk in 50 at-bats). Oh, and he doesn’t have a single extra-base hit against them either.

The heralded left side of the infield has continued their stellar defensive play, but clearly wore down offensively in September. Or maybe they just regressed back to the mean. After all, Nick Punto was a career .238 hitter coming into the season. In that light, September’s .252 batting average wouldn’t be viewed as a disappointment, but considering he was hitting .307 on August 31st, there’s plenty of cause for concern.

Even worse has been the quiet regression of Jason Bartlett. Bartlett has had some big hits for the Twins over the last month, which conceals the adjustment the league seems to have made to him. Over September he hit just .228 with just three walks and two extra-base hits. That’s not just bad, it’s Juan Castro-phic.

There is an exception. The piranha with the sharpest teeth is the one most likely to be wearing dentures, veteran Luis Castillo. One of Castillo’s more infuriating traits is that he seems to play better when he’s interested, and he looks interested now. His sore knee (that kept him out of several games after the Twins clinched) didn’t slow him down as he got on base at a .400 clip for the last month.

What to Watch

Manager Ron Gardenhire has been praised for his ability to handle a bullpen, mostly because it’s been a strength for his tenure. This playoff appearance will test that perception.

For the first time this postseason, it isn’t clear exactly what each reliever’s role is in the bullpen, or exactly when each will be used. Juan Rincon doesn’t own the eighth and Jesse Crain doesn’t own the seventh. Instead, Pat Neshek seems to be the most trusted reliever – unless he’s facing a left-hander with power. In which case Dennys Reyes is the most trusted – unless he’s facing a right-handed hitter. In which case it can be Crain. Or Rincon. Or even Joe Nathan if it’s late enough in the game.

That might sound like a problem, but it’s also liberating, as Gardenhire no longer has to play his bullpen “by the book”. In the postseason, where every pitching change is packed with pressure, it will be interesting to see if this new found freedom is a benefit or a curse.

Thanks for stopping by. Below you'll find Sam's links of the day, which are fantastic. Tomorrow we preview The Oakland Athletics and the pitching matchup. See you then.

BRING ON THE YANKE… um. oh. Well, that’s cool, too.

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What a way to end the regular season! A division championship that looked like a fantasy a few short weeks ago became a reality when Detroit choked their way to a sweep at the hands of one of the most inept teams in the league, and the Twins rode an unexpectedly strong performance from Carlos Silva to a fourth division title in five years. The enduring image of the afternoon has to be the entire team of Twins coming back onto the field after the game to watch the end of the 12-inning Royals-Tigers battle on the JumboTron with the tens of thousands of fans who stuck around to do the same. But it was a day full of highlights: Joe Mauer is your American League batting champ, Justin Morneau got his 130th RBI of the season (tying Larry Walker for the most ever by a Canadian,) and Minnesota wrapped up its best-in-the-majors home record at a tidy 54-27.

You probably know how the playoff schedule shakes out by now, but just in case you don’t, the division title gives the Twins home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs, and forces the Tigers to head to New York. (Yes, yes, we know some strong arguments have been made that the Twins would be better off facing the Yankees in a 5-game series than they would in the 7-game ALCS, but y’know, that Dome-field advantage is a doozy, so let’s count our blessings and cross the pinstriped bridge when we come to it.)

As we gear up for what should be a wildly entertaining October, Intern Sam thought it would be worth poking our head out of the Minnesota burrow to take a look at what writers in Oakland and New York are saying about what’s to come. (We’ll leave Detroit out of it, if you don’t mind. There’s just wayyyyy too much negativity going on over there at the moment, and it’s harshing our buzz.)

(By the way, Intern Sam happens to be in possession of two Upper Club seats to the Tuesday and Wednesday games at the MetroDome that he cannot use, because his employer does not recognize the Division Series as the official holiday that it obviously is. Furthermore, it’s too late to list them for sale on StubHub. So if anyone out there in Geekland wants to go to the game, and is willing to pay face value (or something approaching face value) for the tickets, click here to say so. First come, first served, and the tickets can be hand-delivered anywhere in the Twin Cities metro…)

Now, on to researching the enemy teams…

• Murray Chass offers New Yorkers a primer on the bizarre and exotic strategy of building a winning baseball team without spending $200 million, with the Twins and A’s serving as proof that such a thing can, in fact, be accomplished.



• Putting a serious dent in the notion that New York sports reporters are unaware of the existence of a world west of the Hudson River, Joel Sherman says that the Twins deserve to nearly sweep the postseason awards, even at the expense of minor deity Derek Jeter. The headline writers at the Post apparently aren’t real clear on the spelling of “Morneau,” but hey, at least they’ve heard of him.



• There’s been a tendency this September to ignore the Oakland A’s, as if they were just another edition of the same old Billy Beane squad that comes on like gangbusters in the second half only to fold like a pup tent every October. But Gwen Knapp says that there’s ample reason to believe that this fall could be different.



• The Twins have been feasting on weak bullpens of late, and the late-inning comeback has accounted for several key wins. But in Oakland, the piranhas could face a bullpen that is every bit as solid as theirs, and that will make scoring early runs essential.



• As ESPN and Fox gear up to once again force endless Subway Series storylines down everyone’s throats, Mike Vaccaro turns in a pretty good piece on why being a baseball fan in New York (or any city with more than one team) really is different than being a fan in, say, St. Louis.



• Hating Yankee fans has pretty much become America’s real national pastime over the last several decades, but Sarah Bunting, co-founder of the hilarious and informative Television Without Pity site, makes an excellent case that our national conception of what a Yankee fan even is has been irrevocably warped by ESPN, countless blowhard sports talk hosts, and some idiot from Sports Illustrated.



• Before we get too warm and fuzzy about the Big Apple, though, one of the city’s crustiest writers is right there to remind us that New York just about has a corner on the known world’s supply of smug. “Minnesota, Detroit and Oakland, are finishing the best kind of seasons they could have expected. But a spot in the World Series? Nope, that's too much to ask.” This, of course, is exactly what everyone in New York said about the ’02 Angels, the ’04 Red Sox, and the ’05 White Sox.



• Contrary to much of what’s been reported around these parts lately, the Yankees haven’t actually given up on the notion of Randy Johnson pitching a game in the first round of the playoffs…



• …but they have officially thrown caution to the wind and installed Gary Sheffield as their starting first baseman. Sheffield plays first the way Matt LeCroy plays catcher, so this should just be entertaining all the way around.



• Finally, in a story that threatens to dominate the postseason, Jason Grimsley, the retired pitcher who admitted to using human growth hormone and agreed to cooperate with the feds in a wide-ranging investigation, has reportedly named Roger Clemens, Andy Pettite, Miguel Tejada, and three other players who he knows to have used performance-enhancing drugs. Make no mistake – this is huge, and not only because the Rocket is on the list. (Just imagine the furor had Houston managed to overtake St. Louis for the last NL playoff spot!) Grimsley himself is complaining that investigators put words in his mouth, but it’s a little tough to buy his line that he wouldn’t throw a teammate under a bus when he’s admitted to wearing an FBI wire in the clubhouse earlier this season.

Playoff Roster Decisions

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Provided Brad Radke woke up Friday morning with his arm still attached (and that might not be hyperbole) he pretty clearly earned a postseason start on Thursday night, which has to be a huge relief to the organization. Trusting in Carlos Silva or Matt Garza is optimistic. Trusting in Carlos Silva and Matt Garza crosses into delusional.

It also clarifies the playoff roster somewhat. I suspect the names will look like this:

Starting Pitchers (4): Santana, Bonser, Radke, Silva (or Garza)
Bullpen (8): Nathan, Rincon, Reyes, Crain, Neshek, Guerrier, Garza (or Silva)
Regulars (7): Mauer, Morneau, Castillo, Bartlett, Punto, Hunter, Cuddyer
Semi-Regulars (3): Nevin, White, Tyner
Bench (2): Redmond, Rodriguez, Ford

There aren’t too many surprises, with the possible exception of Luis Rodriguez, but he can serve as a backup at shortstop or third base, and he can be a left-handed bat off the bench. The only other options would be Terry Tiffee or Alex Casilla, neither of whom has seen much time since their call-up.

The other name that might surprise is Lew Ford. Three months ago I might have thought it would be Jason Kubel, but his knees have taken the whack out of his bat, and with just five at-bats this month, I think we can safely say he’ll be watching from the stands. Ford can platoon in center field with Jason Tyner if Torii Hunter gets hurt, be a late-inning defensive replacement for Rondell White, and get on-base (and maybe steal one) if necessary late in a game.

The final option would be left-hander Glen Perkins, though that would mean keeping twelve pitchers, which is very rare for the playoffs, and the Twins have already said they’ll only carry eleven. Still, the temptaion to carry a second southpaw in the bullpen might be too much to resist, if the Twins face a Yankee lineup that features Bobby Abreu, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui (.200 vs. LHP this year) and Jason Giambi (.214 vs. LHP).

The White Sox: What Happened? What's Next?

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So, what went wrong?

It’s almost a ridiculous question to ask when a team is going to win 90 games. It’s easy to write off the year on high expectations that might have been inflated by last year’s white-hot postseason run. Or maybe they can be blamed on bad luck, especially the bad luck of finding themselves in the loaded American League Central.

But that overlooks some hard realities, like the losing record they had to the Twins and even to Cleveland. It also overlooks their 31-40 record since the all-star break. And it overlooks the 10-16 record they’ve had in September, when the games meant the most. All while many were still convinced they were the team to beat in the AL Central.

The biggest problem, or at least the expectation that was most unrealistic, was the starting pitching staff. Only one team, the Kansas City Royals, gave up more runs than the White Sox starting rotation. That’s somewhat misleading, because they also led the league in innings, and will finish in the middle of the pack in ERA. But mediocre wasn’t good enough, not when they carried the team to and through the playoffs last year. And it certainly wasn’t what the organization had in mind when it committed to spending about $45 million last year just on their five starters - Javier Vazquez, Freddy Garcia, Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland and Jose Contreras. That’s nearly half of the White Sox payroll.

The decline in pitching couldn’t be patched over by the offensive improvements. The White Sox are second in the major leagues in runs scored. Minnesota is eleventh. The season isn’t over yet, and the White Sox already have scored 116 more runs than they did in 2005. Of course, the White Sox missed the playoffs regularly this decade with better offenses than they had last year, and one might wonder if the decreased emphasis on small ball might have led to the slip.

Whether you choose to believe that or not, one thing is for certain – the White Sox didn’t win as many close games this year. Last year’s White Sox ended up 35-19 in one run games. This year’s team is just 23-21. And while some have lamented the state of the Sox bullpen, they’ve actually blown two fewer saves than they did last year.

So while it’s not a ridiculous question to ask of a team that’s going to finish nearly 20 games over .500, it’s still a hard one to answer. There were a lot of little problems, a less than stellar bullpen, a very tough division, and probably less team speed. But mostly, it looks like the team committed itself to a veteran starting pitching staff that under performed.

Which naturally raises the question about what the White Sox can do next year to make sure they aren’t the odd team out.

Well, for starters, they’re going to need to spend like crazy again. One of the underreported stories this year was exactly how high the White Sox payroll sky-rocketed this year. The White Sox rode the momentum of last year’s postseason success and received an infusion of cash from some trades to increase their payroll by $27 million this year, up to $102 million. For years, White Sox fans have complained about how cheap owner Jerry Reinsdorf has been with his payroll, making 2006 a true departure – it was double the payroll the White Sox had as recently as 2003.

What isn’t clear is whether this is a new level of spending based on increased interest in the White Sox, or whether it was a one-time boost partly based on cash the White Sox acquired in trades. Because you’ll never guess how much money GM Kenny Williams received from the Phillies and Diamondbacks to cover the salaries of Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez last year. That’s right - $27 million.

It’s an important question for White Sox fans because there isn’t much payroll flexibility next year. It looks like the White Sox are committed to about $90 million in guaranteed contracts, arbitration dollars, and contract options before they start to improve their team. And that’s assuming that they don’t bring back perennial staff ace Buehrle, whom they can opt to have back for $9.5 million.

The leading candidate to replace Buehrle in the rotation would be Brandon McCarthy, but his 4.88 ERA as a long reliever this year hardly inspires confidence. That single hole in the rotation is surrounded by four other starting pitchers who will each be guaranteed $10 million, and none of them have an ERA lower than 4.27. Williams likely will need to trade some offensive assets for pitching, and that still may leave the problem of what to do with some $10-million-per-year pitcher that currently is in a starting slot. His only other choice is to hope they pitch better next year, when they’re all a year older.

The White Sox biggest hope for improvement might be offensively. If the White Sox decide to offer 2005 hero Scott Podsednick arbitration, he’ll likely make $4 million. Podsednick stole 40 bases last year, but also hit just .260 and only made it on base about 33% of the time, so it wouldn’t be too shocking if the White Sox identified left field as a place they can upgrade. Brian Anderson’s first year in center field this year was also disappointing (he hit just .230), but upgrading that is going to take money, because for all his faults, at least Anderson was cheap.

The best bet is that Williams is aggressive in trades again this year, moving one of his offensive assets for some pitching. It'll be interesting to see if he has any wiggle room on their payroll, and how White Sox fans react if the payroll level drops.

Links of the Day for 9/29/06

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Yikes. Suddenly these last three with Chicago really do mean something, if not in the way he had anticipated.

If you hadn’t heard, the Twins won last night (http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/wrap.jsp?ymd=20060928&content_id=1688734&vkey=wrapup2005&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb). The Chairman tied the game at one with a solo homer in the bottom of the ninth, and Jason Bartlett knocked in the winning run in the tenth. This game was significant for a few reasons.

First of all, Brad Radke pitched well. Of course, it’s the Royals, but 57 pitches in 5 innings is a good outing regardless. I mostly saw his velocity around 87-88 MPH, which is enough for him. If the Twins could squeeze five innings out of him in the playoffs, and avoid using Carlos Silva, that will be big.

And secondly, the Tigers lost last night (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260928106). Kenny Rogers got smoked. And suddenly, the Twins and Tigers are both 95-64. The Tigers hold the tiebreak (season series), so the Twins are still a de facto one game back. But it’s been a long way to the top, and this is something to savor, no doubt.

• There was quite a bit of baseball news yesterday. The Mets clinched long ago, but will play the postseason without their ace (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2606427). The NL is wide open, kids.



• It’s so wide open, in fact, that the NL central gap between the Cards and Astros is down to a half-game (http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260928123). Everyone expected the Tigers to cave, and they didn’t. But St. Louis sure did.



• Daniel Cabrera nearly no-hit the Yankees on Thursday (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260928110). This would remain in the realm of “that’s neat,” except for the fact that the Yankees now sit at 96-63, just one game ahead of the Twins and Tigers for homefield in the AL (and, thanks to the All-Star Game, the World Series).



• The NL wildcard is plenty close as well. The Dodgers (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260928127&date=20060928) and Padres (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=260928129) both won, with the Pads keeping their one-game NL West lead. The Phillies lost, (http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=260928120), leaving them on the brink of elimination.

So now you’re up to speed. Enjoy the final weekend, and see you in the playoffs.

Links of the Day for 9/27/06

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After clinching a playoff spot there's been a lot of love for the Twins from baseball writers. The Twins success is being viewed as the story of the season. Justin Morneau's MVP run has benefited from this view he is leading a fan poll on espn.com and has at least one vote in the bag from Kyle Veltrop of the Sporting News. Even Bud Selig is dolling out some praise for the Twins, with the obligatory swipe at the Metrodome.

A couple of national sports commentators weighed in on the debate featured in this weeks dugout splinters article. Dayn Perry of foxsports.com thinks it will work to the Twins benefit to play the Yankees in the ALDS, citing that it favors the Twins to have Santana on the mound for two of the possible five games against the bombers. Mike Celizic on MSNBC.com is somewhat ambivalent agreeing with Dayn on the Santana issue but also citing importance of home field advantage to the Twins (who are sporting the league's best home record). I find it interesting that everyone seems to take wins from Santana efforts to be a given, even though he hasn't been his dominant self in his last three outings.

Swing by the bleacher bums and check out their great entries this week. Today, they posted a link to a story about MLB pulling their podcasts from itunes. The reason they did this was that they didn't like their podcats being listed next to those posted by fans. From the link:

"That may sound immaterial, but again the brand is very important to us," said Bob Bowman, of MLB.

Although impressed with MLB's embrace of web related media, I find their excuse for pulling their podcasts from itunes hard to swallow. It seems inconsistent that they would advocate fan blogs linked to their site while trying to separate themselves from fan podcasts. It's all the more reason to subscribe to RSS feeds to get your mlb casts and your favorite Twins podcasts avoiding the middle man entirely.

The Debate

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I know Yogi – it’s never over til it’s over, right? Well, now it's over, and starting tonight the Twins face a decision. Will they try like hell to catch the Tigers by the tail, or ease their foot off the gas in hopes of setting up their rotation and resting some key players?

There’s some mixed signals coming out of Twins camp regarding this. Manager Ron Gardenhire doesn’t anticipate a big celebration if the Twins clinch their playoff spot, since they’ll still be gunning for the AL Central championship. On the other hand, there is NO WAY Santana will be starting next Sunday if the Twins have clinched a playoff spot. In his weekend radio show, Terry Ryan talked about the division race being the focus. But he also talked about Brad Radke returning to the mound at least one more time this year (likely Thursday), which is hardly the type of gamble a team in a tight division race would take.

There aren’t a lot of strong arguments for either side. Wild card teams have done very well in the playoffs the last few years, overcoming whatever scheduling disadvantages they might encounter. Furthermore, the Twins haven’t been particularly strong at home in the playoffs in this millennium, winning just two of eight games from 2002-2004, so it’s not like dome field advantage is critical. Finally, if the Twins play games 1, 2 and 5 on the road, it allows Johan Santana to battle on the road twice, and can give rookies like Boof Bonser or Matt Garza some starts at home.

But that argument also demonstrates why it isn’t critical that the Twins juggle their starting rotation. Other than making sure Santana starts game 1, does it really matter if Bonser or Carlos Silva starts Game 2? Or Radke or Garza for that matter? Picking a pitcher from the middle of the Twins rotation is like choosing a fortune cookie from the basket at Kwan’s – until you open it, does it really matter which one you chose?

The best reasons behind the debate are far more nebulous. In support of chasing tigers, the Twins don’t want to face the Yankees in the first round, who seem to have some kind of evil mojo in the Dome come playoff time. The best reason for accepting the wild card berth is that some important players in the lineup and bullpen could probably use the rest. Is a short respite going to undo a season’s worth of strain on Torii Hunter’s foot, Joe Mauer’s hamstring, or Juan Rincon’s shoulder?

It isn't the importance of the debate that makes it popular. It's the accessability. A fan doesn’t need to be armed with much knowledge to have an opinion on rest, or the Yankees, or the importance of home field advantage. But for all the hand-wringing, it’s hard to see that the final choice will make much difference.

Links of the Day for 9/26/06

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The incredible shrinking magic number continued to shrink. After the Indians’ pounding of the White Sox, the magic number was 1. So what happened after the Twins held on to clinch last night? They celebratee, that’s what. And while Ron Gardenhire had to put some thought into whether they should celebrate, he made the right decision. The Twins are not the Yankees after all—the playoffs aren’t guaranteed by their payroll. While it may seem inevitable now, a playoff berth seemed to be an impossible dream the first half of the season. And so, when they clinched last night, I hope you opened some bubbly, maybe even fired up a victory cigar, because the Twins have accomplished something amazing.

And while you’re celebrating, make sure you raise a toast to the Detroit Tigers, who are back in the playoffs for the first time since 1987. This is a franchise that’s gone through a lot. They’ve seen rebuilding year after rebuilding year, culminating in the historically awful 2003 season and now, their long nightmare is over, because they are in the playoffs.

And they, along with their fans, have done it in an unassuming, workmanlike way that everyone should be able to appreciate. There was no annoying monkey, no whining about a curse and no bitching. All they’ve done is make the playoffs and I’ve been pulling for them ever since their torrid start (except against the Twins, of course). I know I’ll continue pulling for them in the playoffs as well (again, unless they meet the Twins in the ALCS), especially because I remember what it was like to break a playoff drought of more than a decade. If you need a reminder, I suggest you check out The Roar of the Tigers.

• If you’re like me, you’ve been joining the new bloggers over at Pulling a Blyleven during games. Trust me—they will have you laughing no matter what happens.



• It turns out that Johan’s father is in town to watch the rest of the Twins’ season. His name? Jesus. Is anyone surprised?



• Be thankful the pixie vests are the worst thing the Twins have done to their uniforms recently. It could definitely be a lot worse.



• The New York Times continues their obsession with the Twins. As always, bugmenot has login info if you need it.



• 33 for MVP!!



• If you don’t get goose bumps after reading this, you might want to check your pulse. Something magical is occurring this season—make sure you celebrate it.
  

Links of the Day for 9/25/06

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The Twins wrapped up a 7-3 road trip Sunday afternoon in Baltimore, and reduced their magic number for clinching a playoff spot to two. But catching Detroit for the division lead may still be harder than anyone thought a few weeks ago.

Even assuming Minnesota wins their first game against Kansas City on Monday night, thus reducing the idle Tigers’ lead to one game, they will still have to make up two full games to win the division, since Detroit won the season series between the two teams. Furthermore, the White Sox will likely be in full spoiler mode when they arrive at the Dome for the final three games of the season, and they would naturally take great joy in sending the Twins into the playoffs on a bad note.

Meanwhile, the Tigers will play their last six games at home against Baltimore and Kansas City. As noted in this space two weeks ago, schedule matters, and Detroit really caught a break with all the cupcake opponents on the back end of theirs. Of course, given how close the win-loss records of the AL playoff teams are, who wins the Central may not make a lick of difference. Still, overtaking the Yankees for the best record in the league looks at least as achievable as overtaking Detroit, and that Dome-field advantage can be a doozy, so what the hell, why not just keep winning?

• One of the biggest questions for the Twins’ field staff has been how they would use Johan Santana during the last week of the regular season and the opening round of the playoffs. Would it be worth starting him on the last day of the season, if it could mean the difference between hosting the A’s or playing at the Yankees? The answer, apparently, is no.



• Whether it will be a serious start, or just an opportunity for Twins fans to say goodbye to a class act remains to be seen, but Brad Radke is tentatively scheduled to start Thursday’s game against the Royals.



• One thing that seemed to be sadly lacking around the Twins clubhouse in 2005 was a sense of humor. From rumors of clubhouse scraps to a decidedly defeatist attitude in press quotes, it was abundantly clear that the ’05 Twins just weren’t having a lot of fun. Patrick Reusse says those days are most decidedly in the past.



• Speaking of humor, you think that Sports Illustrated article about A-Rod was blistering? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Batgirl’s got her hands on anadvance copy of Mpls/St. Paul’s upcoming expose on the Twins’ head piranha and tiny superhero…



• Free agency has never been a big part of Terry Ryan’s team building strategy, and this look at the big-money free agents of 2006 by LaVelle Neal suggests that Ryan may be saving himself a lot of headaches as well as cash.



• That having been said, LaVelle also believes that Torii Hunter is worth the $12 million the Twins would have to pay him in 2007 if they pick up his option. The case for Torii: he’s fourth in the league among center fielders in RBI and home runs, and there’s a strong likelihood that his defensive prowess will return after the stress fracture in his left foot heals in the offseason.



• The Twins’ new ballpark may be in line to get some sort of leftist pinko commie environmental certification. Perhaps they can sell the naming rights to Ralph Nader…



• In one of those bizarre tales of Yankee greed that seem to rear their head a few times each season, the Pinstripers are informing their season ticket holders in no uncertain terms that the reselling of tickets on sites like StubHub will not be tolerated. They’re even banning some of the offenders from buying postseason tickets. “The letter… doesn't accuse the ticket-holder of doing anything illegal when he sold the ducats to games on May 28 and June 9. But according to the note, the sale, resale or transfer of tickets at any price is a violation of the license agreement.” Way to hold onto your most loyal fans, there, New York.



• Okay, we admit it, we’re at a loss. Does this make RFK Stadium the worst ballpark in the majors? Or the best? (Warning: this item is probably safe for work, but you might not want to click it while anyone’s reading over your shoulder.)



• Finally, the news is a few days old at this point, but the case of two San Francisco Chronicle reporters, who are now staring down 18 months in prison for the heinous crime of refusing to reveal the confidential source who allowed them to blow the Barry Bonds steroid story wide open, is well worth another look. There has never been an absolute legal right for journalists to maintain confidentiality, but until quite recently, the courts gave journalists wide latitude in such cases, believing that the value of a free and unfettered press justified such confidence in their methods.
  
  That’s all changed, in large part because of the Bush Administration’s decision to aggressively pursue a “reining in” of the media establishment in various federal court cases. The overall wisdom of that course is highly debatable and not really a subject for a sports blog. But many in the sports media are incredulous at what is being done to their colleagues in the name of justice.

Links of the Day for 9/22/06

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This week’s links assembled as I try to stay out of prison…

• The Twins had a chance to pass Detroit in the Central last night, but faltered in the series finale versus Boston. Johan Santana wasn’t quite himself, allowing four runs (two earned) in five innings, walking as many as he struck out (three). Even the two unearned runs can’t be excused, as they came when, in the second with runners on first and second, Alex Gonzalez attempted to bunt the runners over. Santana first tried to field and go to third, but mishandled the ball, then fired errantly to (or, more accurately, past) first.



• No ground was lost, however. Seattle smoked Chicago, 9-0, and Detroit fell in Baltimore 4-3. Minnesota stays one-half game behind the Tigers (tied in the loss column) and five games ahead of the White Sox.



• From this notebook: Radke has a successful bullpen session, and Gardy wants Punto back at the hot corner next year.



• Not everyone is headed to the playoffs, of course. Jeff Sackman runs down the teams that need to blow it up and start over.



• And finally, I leave you with the work of Minnesota’s finest poet.