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Most people look back on high school as – well - memorable anyways. Whether you were a jock, dweeb, waistoid, farm boy, party girl, motorhead, brain, fry or geek, you probably have some deeply ingrained memories. Whether you want to or not.
Baseball is the same way. It cuts across social groups, plays with your emotions and imprints its moments in your memory. It also has a less desirable similarity – the popularity contest. Otherwise known as the MVP vote.
Remember when the class valedictorian lost the class presidential vote to the homecoming king? You didn’t bat an eye. You knew it was a popularity contest that was decided long before the election.
The MVP isn’t much different. The history of the award suggests that the sports writers often act like they are still in high school, which is weird, because I suspect a lot of them wouldn’t want to relive it. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that the media has anointed Derek Jeter (the totally dreamy prom date) as MVP over the Canadian exchange student or our hometown boy. After all, our guys are really only sophomores.
So fight the fight, if you must, but understand that this is likely going the way of that student council election. You’ll need to shrug it off, kibitz with your friends in study hall and savor what you can of the memories. They’re what lasts, anyways.
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Links of the Day for 9/14/06
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Today's loss left the Twins fans with a Silva-esque upset stomach. I didn't see the game, but the folks over at Twinkietown have been said that the outcome could have been different if not for a blown call. Of course, what really has us really upset is that popping sound coming from F-bomb's elbow. Thinking about that sound gives me the willies. Even without results from the MRI, Gardenhire is saying F-bomb's season is done.
Call me superstitious, but I always notice that bad news comes to my favorite team as soon as the national media gives them glowering praise. I saw this injury coming the moment Tom Verducci at SI.com published his article calling the Twin's the team to beat with the addition of Liriano.
Now that Big Ten football has begun making plans to change the schedule for the Twins future playoff run, I'm convinced more bad news is on the way. Was the losing of a coin toss (and home field advantage) to the White Sox an omen of things to come of a future playoff game or am I off my rocker? The good news is that we've been playing pretty good ball without Liriano and we got an excellent performance from Garza today. I'll leave it on that up note. Bring on Cleveland!
Today's loss left the Twins fans with a Silva-esque upset stomach. I didn't see the game, but the folks over at Twinkietown have been said that the outcome could have been different if not for a blown call. Of course, what really has us really upset is that popping sound coming from F-bomb's elbow. Thinking about that sound gives me the willies. Even without results from the MRI, Gardenhire is saying F-bomb's season is done.
Call me superstitious, but I always notice that bad news comes to my favorite team as soon as the national media gives them glowering praise. I saw this injury coming the moment Tom Verducci at SI.com published his article calling the Twin's the team to beat with the addition of Liriano.
Now that Big Ten football has begun making plans to change the schedule for the Twins future playoff run, I'm convinced more bad news is on the way. Was the losing of a coin toss (and home field advantage) to the White Sox an omen of things to come of a future playoff game or am I off my rocker? The good news is that we've been playing pretty good ball without Liriano and we got an excellent performance from Garza today. I'll leave it on that up note. Bring on Cleveland!
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Wow!
How Francisco Liriano saved the Twins' 2006 season, regardless of their final record.
Powered by Kyle Eliason (and published in September's GameDay)
It was the morning of May 19th. The Twins had won just 17 of their first 41 games and there was no joy in Mudville... or Minneapolis. Nothing was working for the Twins.
Some of what ailed the hometown nine could not have been foreseen. No one expected Rondell White and Carlos Silva to be world-beaters, but no one expected either to fall off the face of the Earth. Kyle Lohse was overpaid for a backend starter, but not even his harshest critics expected an 8.92 earned run average through his first eight starts. Then there were the cancers seemingly everyone but the Twins could diagnose in advance.
General manager Terry Ryan and skipper Ron Gardenhire wanted "proven veterans" to shore up the left side of the infield. Unfortunately, in third baseman Tony Batista and futility infielder Juan Castro, Twins' management got what they wanted: two veterans who had already proven they weren't good enough to be major league regulars.
Batista was run out of town by a Japanese team looking to make room for a young prospect before signing with the Twins, and Castro hadn't been able to hold onto a starting job in the eleven seasons prior to 2006. Batista didn't do anything well. The Twins labeled him a more "reliable" defender at third base, but the only thing Batista did reliably was roll onto his stomach in lieu of diving while ground balls trickled into left field. Castro coasted by on his defensive reputation but did not perform as advertised and kept Jason Bartlett down on the farm to hit .300 in Triple-A for the third consecutive season. Worst of all, the pitcher many thought the third best on the team behind Cy Young winner Johan Santana and ace stopper Joe Nathan was throwing middle relief.
Losing is a part of baseball. The best teams in the league are going to lose one out of three contests. It's easier to root for a team when they're winning, but there are still people who attend Royals games. If the local squad just doesn't have the talent to contend, fans don't have to root for them to win the division. They can root for their favorite team just to win their next game. If that doesn't work there's always the next night.
What makes cheering for a team all but impossible is the feeling that they're shooting themselves in the foot. That regardless of their ultimate ceiling, they're not trying to reach it. As the Twins slid further and farther back in the standings, that feeling was growing, resulting in frustration and disinterest. Then, on the afternoon of May 19th, things began to change.
The Twins called on rookie Francisco Liriano to end a five game losing streak and perched him atop the mound to open their three game series in Milwaukee. It was long overdue. Starters Radke, Silva, Lohse and Baker were not living up to expectations, but Liriano would. Five innings, five strikeouts and one earned run later, Twins' fans had something worth following: the wunderkind lefty with the 90 m.p.h. slider would be chewing up the best hitters in the world on a regular basis.
A week later Liriano would make the season’s first start at home. For a fourth place team the stage couldn't have been bigger. The Twins sent their phenom to the hill and the Mariners sent theirs: 20-year old Venezuelan fireballer Felix Hernandez. The future of pitching was on display for all to see and it was the Twins prodigy who would establish himself as the most promising arm in baseball. Throwing five scoreless innings and fanning six Mariners, Liriano out-dueled King Felix in a 3-0 win.
Upon inserting Liriano into the starting rotation the Twins would win a major league best 42-of-59 games. Other young players did their parts, too. Bartlett finally resurfaced from Triple-A and gave the Twins better defense at shortstop, to say nothing of his knowing which end of the bat to hold. Justin Morneau became the middle-of-the order threat Twins fans had hoped. Nick Punto began doing his best Luis Castillo impression upon taking over the third base duties. The Twins were cruising and closing in on both division leaders Detroit and the wildcard, but on July 28th, although no one knew it at the time, one of the wheels fell off.
At 12-3, Liriano took the mound against the division leading Tigers to defend his league leading earned run average. He threw eight innings of three-hit ball and tied a career high with 12 strikeouts in a game. But all was not well. In addition to getting a no decision in a game the Twins went on to lose in extra innings, Liriano was scratched from his next start with the ominous diagnosis of soreness in his left forearm. Team officials reassured the press that it was nothing major and Liriano would only miss one start.
On August 7th Liriano would again face the Tigers, but it was clear he wasn't healthy. He allowed ten hits and four runs before being chased from the game after the fourth inning. After the game it was reiterated that Liriano had a muscular problem and that nothing was wrong with his surgically repaired elbow. The Twins were going to hold him out of action and run some precautionary tests, waiting until the swelling in his arm went down before performing an MRI.
Twins nation collectively held its breath. Much of the Twins success was driven by the best one-two punch in the majors: the left-handed tandem of Santana and Liriano. The Twins, who still had ground to gain to capture either the wildcard or division crown could ill-afford to lose Liriano, arguably the team's best pitcher this season. As gloomy as the situation seemed, at least fans were holding their breath. Two months earlier very few in Twins Territory would have batted an eye and most would have been, as ESPN personality Tony Kornheiser said, "waiting for sex-boat season."
Then news broke. Much of it was good. The MRI had revealed an "abnormality" in Liriano's elbow, but it was only scarring, far from a new tear. Liriano was tearing apart the weakened portion of his once-injured and healed ulnar collateral ligament. The pain he felt caused him to alter his mechanics leading to cascade injuries, first in his forearm, then in his shoulder. Tendonitis resulted in that shoulder resulting in the Twins putting Liriano on a shoulder-strengthening program prior to any throwing program, which is where things currently stand.
How soon Liriano is back is anyone's guess, but how well the Twins hold up in his absence will be as important a factor as Liriano's health. If they're out of the race in mid-September, Twins fans probably won't see Liriano again until 2007.
Santana and Nathan are their ever-dominant selves. Hunter is back from the disabled list. Radke, in his swan song, is pitching through a torn shoulder on cortisone and guts. Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Punto are having career years and new hitting coach Joe Varva has the Twins leading the majors in batting average. It might be enough to contend. If rookie flamethrower Matt Garza can bury his jitters and start throwing his breaking stuff for strikes to compliment his 97 m.p.h. fastball, he may be able to fill part of the hole Liriano's departure from the rotation created.
But even if the Twins fall short, even if Liriano never sets foot on the field again this year, the 22 year-old rookie did something that might be more important than winning a division. He gave fans a reason to follow the Twins again.
For a little over two months Liriano dominated the major leagues. The numbers speak for themselves: 11 wins to three losses in just 15 starts, 110 punchouts to 89 base runners in 97 2/3 innings, a phenomenal 1.96 earned run average as a starter, and an All-Star selection. Liriano picked up the team when the fans needed it most and made every start an event. The Twins turned their season around and fans came back to the ballpark, all thanks to Liriano's golden left arm. Not bad for a player who was once a throw-in when trading away AJ Pierzynski.
Kyle Eliason would like to use this space to recognize Chris Vallancourt of Massachusetts who had the foresight to draft Francisco Liriano as early as the fifth round in the writer's fantasy baseball league.
Powered by Kyle Eliason (and published in September's GameDay)
It was the morning of May 19th. The Twins had won just 17 of their first 41 games and there was no joy in Mudville... or Minneapolis. Nothing was working for the Twins.
Some of what ailed the hometown nine could not have been foreseen. No one expected Rondell White and Carlos Silva to be world-beaters, but no one expected either to fall off the face of the Earth. Kyle Lohse was overpaid for a backend starter, but not even his harshest critics expected an 8.92 earned run average through his first eight starts. Then there were the cancers seemingly everyone but the Twins could diagnose in advance.
General manager Terry Ryan and skipper Ron Gardenhire wanted "proven veterans" to shore up the left side of the infield. Unfortunately, in third baseman Tony Batista and futility infielder Juan Castro, Twins' management got what they wanted: two veterans who had already proven they weren't good enough to be major league regulars.
Batista was run out of town by a Japanese team looking to make room for a young prospect before signing with the Twins, and Castro hadn't been able to hold onto a starting job in the eleven seasons prior to 2006. Batista didn't do anything well. The Twins labeled him a more "reliable" defender at third base, but the only thing Batista did reliably was roll onto his stomach in lieu of diving while ground balls trickled into left field. Castro coasted by on his defensive reputation but did not perform as advertised and kept Jason Bartlett down on the farm to hit .300 in Triple-A for the third consecutive season. Worst of all, the pitcher many thought the third best on the team behind Cy Young winner Johan Santana and ace stopper Joe Nathan was throwing middle relief.
Losing is a part of baseball. The best teams in the league are going to lose one out of three contests. It's easier to root for a team when they're winning, but there are still people who attend Royals games. If the local squad just doesn't have the talent to contend, fans don't have to root for them to win the division. They can root for their favorite team just to win their next game. If that doesn't work there's always the next night.
What makes cheering for a team all but impossible is the feeling that they're shooting themselves in the foot. That regardless of their ultimate ceiling, they're not trying to reach it. As the Twins slid further and farther back in the standings, that feeling was growing, resulting in frustration and disinterest. Then, on the afternoon of May 19th, things began to change.
The Twins called on rookie Francisco Liriano to end a five game losing streak and perched him atop the mound to open their three game series in Milwaukee. It was long overdue. Starters Radke, Silva, Lohse and Baker were not living up to expectations, but Liriano would. Five innings, five strikeouts and one earned run later, Twins' fans had something worth following: the wunderkind lefty with the 90 m.p.h. slider would be chewing up the best hitters in the world on a regular basis.
A week later Liriano would make the season’s first start at home. For a fourth place team the stage couldn't have been bigger. The Twins sent their phenom to the hill and the Mariners sent theirs: 20-year old Venezuelan fireballer Felix Hernandez. The future of pitching was on display for all to see and it was the Twins prodigy who would establish himself as the most promising arm in baseball. Throwing five scoreless innings and fanning six Mariners, Liriano out-dueled King Felix in a 3-0 win.
Upon inserting Liriano into the starting rotation the Twins would win a major league best 42-of-59 games. Other young players did their parts, too. Bartlett finally resurfaced from Triple-A and gave the Twins better defense at shortstop, to say nothing of his knowing which end of the bat to hold. Justin Morneau became the middle-of-the order threat Twins fans had hoped. Nick Punto began doing his best Luis Castillo impression upon taking over the third base duties. The Twins were cruising and closing in on both division leaders Detroit and the wildcard, but on July 28th, although no one knew it at the time, one of the wheels fell off.
At 12-3, Liriano took the mound against the division leading Tigers to defend his league leading earned run average. He threw eight innings of three-hit ball and tied a career high with 12 strikeouts in a game. But all was not well. In addition to getting a no decision in a game the Twins went on to lose in extra innings, Liriano was scratched from his next start with the ominous diagnosis of soreness in his left forearm. Team officials reassured the press that it was nothing major and Liriano would only miss one start.
On August 7th Liriano would again face the Tigers, but it was clear he wasn't healthy. He allowed ten hits and four runs before being chased from the game after the fourth inning. After the game it was reiterated that Liriano had a muscular problem and that nothing was wrong with his surgically repaired elbow. The Twins were going to hold him out of action and run some precautionary tests, waiting until the swelling in his arm went down before performing an MRI.
Twins nation collectively held its breath. Much of the Twins success was driven by the best one-two punch in the majors: the left-handed tandem of Santana and Liriano. The Twins, who still had ground to gain to capture either the wildcard or division crown could ill-afford to lose Liriano, arguably the team's best pitcher this season. As gloomy as the situation seemed, at least fans were holding their breath. Two months earlier very few in Twins Territory would have batted an eye and most would have been, as ESPN personality Tony Kornheiser said, "waiting for sex-boat season."
Then news broke. Much of it was good. The MRI had revealed an "abnormality" in Liriano's elbow, but it was only scarring, far from a new tear. Liriano was tearing apart the weakened portion of his once-injured and healed ulnar collateral ligament. The pain he felt caused him to alter his mechanics leading to cascade injuries, first in his forearm, then in his shoulder. Tendonitis resulted in that shoulder resulting in the Twins putting Liriano on a shoulder-strengthening program prior to any throwing program, which is where things currently stand.
How soon Liriano is back is anyone's guess, but how well the Twins hold up in his absence will be as important a factor as Liriano's health. If they're out of the race in mid-September, Twins fans probably won't see Liriano again until 2007.
Santana and Nathan are their ever-dominant selves. Hunter is back from the disabled list. Radke, in his swan song, is pitching through a torn shoulder on cortisone and guts. Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Punto are having career years and new hitting coach Joe Varva has the Twins leading the majors in batting average. It might be enough to contend. If rookie flamethrower Matt Garza can bury his jitters and start throwing his breaking stuff for strikes to compliment his 97 m.p.h. fastball, he may be able to fill part of the hole Liriano's departure from the rotation created.
But even if the Twins fall short, even if Liriano never sets foot on the field again this year, the 22 year-old rookie did something that might be more important than winning a division. He gave fans a reason to follow the Twins again.
For a little over two months Liriano dominated the major leagues. The numbers speak for themselves: 11 wins to three losses in just 15 starts, 110 punchouts to 89 base runners in 97 2/3 innings, a phenomenal 1.96 earned run average as a starter, and an All-Star selection. Liriano picked up the team when the fans needed it most and made every start an event. The Twins turned their season around and fans came back to the ballpark, all thanks to Liriano's golden left arm. Not bad for a player who was once a throw-in when trading away AJ Pierzynski.
Kyle Eliason would like to use this space to recognize Chris Vallancourt of Massachusetts who had the foresight to draft Francisco Liriano as early as the fifth round in the writer's fantasy baseball league.
Monday, September 11, 2006
Dugout Splinter - Oakand Athletics
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Published this week in GameDay, and republished so the last line can prove, once and for all, that I'm an idiot.
Long September
The Bay area seems fond of grand juries investigating baseball. Can someone please investigate what the hell this team does over the All-Star break? The A’s have been unstoppable since the All-Star break – again. Last year they went 32-14 from the All-Star break through August. The year before that they were 31-14. They were 35-13 in 2002. 32-13 this year is practically yawn-inducing.
This year’s streak has led some to suggest the AL West race is over. What hasn’t been as widely reported (at least nationally) is that September hasn’t been particularly kind to this franchise. Over the last two years, the Athletics have slumped in September, which essentially cost them postseason appearances. There are similar concerns this year, since the Athletics are only 5-4 in their first nine games of the month.
That may not sound like cause for concern, but consider that they’ve had home series versus the Rangers and Orioles, and a road series versus the Devil Rays. Now comes the hard part. This series begins a 10 game set versus the AL Central, though they get to host series versus the White Sox and Indians. Following that, seven of their last ten games are versus the Angels, who are lurking just 5.5 games behind them in the AL West.
What’s Working
A team’s that won twice as many games as it has lost since the All-Star break obviously has some things working…
Billy Bean’s Offseason Deals - This winter, in true Moneyball fashion, the Athletics tried to exploit a perceived market inefficiency – obtaining talented “clubhouse cancers”. First they traded for Milton Bradley, (yes, that’s his real name.) who had been traded by the Indians and the Dodgers despite being a center fielder with speed and power entering the prime of his career. He missed a good chunk of the season with an injury, but when healthy he’s been the Athletics third best hitter.
The biggest offseason gamble was signing Frank Thomas, who wasn’t just a clubhouse cancer, he was an injured (and fragile) clubhouse cancer. He also hasn’t stayed healthy the entire year, but he’s batted enough to qualify for the end-of-year awards, which makes him a leading candidate for “Comeback Player of the Year”. Heck, with 35 home runs and 97 RBI in this anemic lineup, you could make a decent case for MVP. Best of all for the cash-strapped Athletics, he was only guaranteed $500,000 this year, though he’ll likely make almost $3 million when all his incentive bonuses are paid. That’s still a bargain for his production.
Youth - Oakland’s other power source has been second year player Nick Swisher. Swisher had a monster April and May, but has slipped significantly since then, and is only batting .248 since the All-Star break. But his 31 home runs and 85 RBI are second on the club, and at just 25 years old, he looks to be a productive player whom Oakland can count on in the future.
The Defense – Oakland’s reputation is that of a softball team, going back to the Bash Brothers and continuing through the Giambi Brothers. That’s too bad, because this team is the polar opposite of that perception. They now live on pitching and defense, and if you think that’s playing the game “the right way,” you’ll love this team.
I’d like to spout some statistics about how fantastic Oakland’s defense is, but the statistics that are usually cited are mostly worthless, and the statistics that might be more useful are both obscure and lack obvious value. Nevertheless, in their May visit, they were clearly the best defensive team to come through the Metrodome this year. Watch and judge for yourself.
The Bullpen – Everyone is wondering how the Athletics ran away with the AL West. The answer is their bullpen. Barry Zito is one of the most highly regarded starting pitchers in baseball, and he leads the Athletics rotation in ERA. But there are six members of the Athletics bullpen who have ERAs lower than him.
Closer and 2005 Rookie of the Year Huston Street (30 saves, 3.17 ERA) is returning from a groin injury, but his replacement, Justin Duscherer (3.19 ERA) saved eight games in his absence and will now return to the eighth inning setup role. Pitching in front of them is Kiko Calero, whose 3.12 ERA is lower than either one of them. In less critical roles are guys like Ron Flores (2.96 ERA), Chad Gaudin (2.48 ERA) and Joe Kennedy (1.11 ERA). If you’re someone who likes to beat the traffic, you can feel pretty comfortable that the score won’t change much after the sixth inning in this series.
ON THE HILL
Oakland: Kirk Saarloos (7-7, 4.68 ERA)2006:109.2 IP, 130 H, 38 K, 45 BB, 17HR
2005:10-9, 4.17 ERA, 159.2 IP, 53 K
Q: How can a right-hander who can’t strike people out and has questionable control survive as a starter in this league, let alone have a respectable 4.68 ERA?
A: He keeps that ball down. Way down. Saarloos is an extreme groundball pitcher, getting twice as many ground balls as fly balls this season.
He’s also induced 23 double plays this year, which ranks him fifth in the American League, despite having 35 fewer innings pitched than anyone above him.
Tuesday: Matt Guerrier (0-0, 3.04 ERA)2005: 0-3, 71.2 IP, 46 K, 3.39 ERA
2006: 53.1 IP, 62 H, 29 K, 17 BB, 5 HR
We know Guerrier as a middle reliever, but he started 80 games in AAA before being called up. His record was 23-29 with a 3.99 ERA, and 348 K in 487.2 innings.
Guerrier is the lucky recipient of the decision to protect Scott Baker by placing him in the bullpen. With Liriano returning, it isn’t clear whether the Twins view this as a one time start, or whether he’ll get some more opportunities as the season continues. That may depend as much on how Silva pitches on Monday as how Guerrier pitches on Tuesday.
In his career, he’s pitched in 85 games, most of them in long relief, and still doesn’t have a win. This would be a nice time for it.
Published this week in GameDay, and republished so the last line can prove, once and for all, that I'm an idiot.
Long September
The Bay area seems fond of grand juries investigating baseball. Can someone please investigate what the hell this team does over the All-Star break? The A’s have been unstoppable since the All-Star break – again. Last year they went 32-14 from the All-Star break through August. The year before that they were 31-14. They were 35-13 in 2002. 32-13 this year is practically yawn-inducing.
This year’s streak has led some to suggest the AL West race is over. What hasn’t been as widely reported (at least nationally) is that September hasn’t been particularly kind to this franchise. Over the last two years, the Athletics have slumped in September, which essentially cost them postseason appearances. There are similar concerns this year, since the Athletics are only 5-4 in their first nine games of the month.
That may not sound like cause for concern, but consider that they’ve had home series versus the Rangers and Orioles, and a road series versus the Devil Rays. Now comes the hard part. This series begins a 10 game set versus the AL Central, though they get to host series versus the White Sox and Indians. Following that, seven of their last ten games are versus the Angels, who are lurking just 5.5 games behind them in the AL West.
What’s Working
A team’s that won twice as many games as it has lost since the All-Star break obviously has some things working…
Billy Bean’s Offseason Deals - This winter, in true Moneyball fashion, the Athletics tried to exploit a perceived market inefficiency – obtaining talented “clubhouse cancers”. First they traded for Milton Bradley, (yes, that’s his real name.) who had been traded by the Indians and the Dodgers despite being a center fielder with speed and power entering the prime of his career. He missed a good chunk of the season with an injury, but when healthy he’s been the Athletics third best hitter.
The biggest offseason gamble was signing Frank Thomas, who wasn’t just a clubhouse cancer, he was an injured (and fragile) clubhouse cancer. He also hasn’t stayed healthy the entire year, but he’s batted enough to qualify for the end-of-year awards, which makes him a leading candidate for “Comeback Player of the Year”. Heck, with 35 home runs and 97 RBI in this anemic lineup, you could make a decent case for MVP. Best of all for the cash-strapped Athletics, he was only guaranteed $500,000 this year, though he’ll likely make almost $3 million when all his incentive bonuses are paid. That’s still a bargain for his production.
Youth - Oakland’s other power source has been second year player Nick Swisher. Swisher had a monster April and May, but has slipped significantly since then, and is only batting .248 since the All-Star break. But his 31 home runs and 85 RBI are second on the club, and at just 25 years old, he looks to be a productive player whom Oakland can count on in the future.
The Defense – Oakland’s reputation is that of a softball team, going back to the Bash Brothers and continuing through the Giambi Brothers. That’s too bad, because this team is the polar opposite of that perception. They now live on pitching and defense, and if you think that’s playing the game “the right way,” you’ll love this team.
I’d like to spout some statistics about how fantastic Oakland’s defense is, but the statistics that are usually cited are mostly worthless, and the statistics that might be more useful are both obscure and lack obvious value. Nevertheless, in their May visit, they were clearly the best defensive team to come through the Metrodome this year. Watch and judge for yourself.
The Bullpen – Everyone is wondering how the Athletics ran away with the AL West. The answer is their bullpen. Barry Zito is one of the most highly regarded starting pitchers in baseball, and he leads the Athletics rotation in ERA. But there are six members of the Athletics bullpen who have ERAs lower than him.
Closer and 2005 Rookie of the Year Huston Street (30 saves, 3.17 ERA) is returning from a groin injury, but his replacement, Justin Duscherer (3.19 ERA) saved eight games in his absence and will now return to the eighth inning setup role. Pitching in front of them is Kiko Calero, whose 3.12 ERA is lower than either one of them. In less critical roles are guys like Ron Flores (2.96 ERA), Chad Gaudin (2.48 ERA) and Joe Kennedy (1.11 ERA). If you’re someone who likes to beat the traffic, you can feel pretty comfortable that the score won’t change much after the sixth inning in this series.
ON THE HILL
Oakland: Kirk Saarloos (7-7, 4.68 ERA)
Tuesday: Matt Guerrier (0-0, 3.04 ERA)
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Links of the Day for 9/11/06
Powered by Intern Sam
Well, so much for the offensive drought! Thanks to a couple of outstanding pitching performances from Boof Bonser and Johan Santana (and an important assist from Cleveland’s Victor Martinez,) the Twins finished the weekend in firm control of their own playoff destiny, a game and a half in front of the White Sox, and only two games off the division lead.
Jim Leyland’s voodoo no longer seems to be working on the Tigers, who now look more like the team everyone thought they would be in 2006: a scrappy bunch of youngsters capable of beating anyone, but unlikely to do it very regularly. Dropping three in a row to the Twins after winning the series opener had to be a crushing blow, particularly when at least one of the games (Saturday) looked eminently winnable for the Tigers. Still, Detroit has an easier remaining schedule than either the Twins or the Sox, so it’s definitely too early to start writing their obituary.
Well, so much for the offensive drought! Thanks to a couple of outstanding pitching performances from Boof Bonser and Johan Santana (and an important assist from Cleveland’s Victor Martinez,) the Twins finished the weekend in firm control of their own playoff destiny, a game and a half in front of the White Sox, and only two games off the division lead.
Jim Leyland’s voodoo no longer seems to be working on the Tigers, who now look more like the team everyone thought they would be in 2006: a scrappy bunch of youngsters capable of beating anyone, but unlikely to do it very regularly. Dropping three in a row to the Twins after winning the series opener had to be a crushing blow, particularly when at least one of the games (Saturday) looked eminently winnable for the Tigers. Still, Detroit has an easier remaining schedule than either the Twins or the Sox, so it’s definitely too early to start writing their obituary.
- In case you missed it, Liriano’s rehab start in Scranton, Pennsylvania went off without a hitch Saturday night, and he’s scheduled to start Wednesday against the A’s.
- This Tuesday, Matt Guerrier will become the Twins’ 10th different starting pitcher of 2006, replacing Scott Baker in the rotation. Baker will get some work out of the bullpen, but as long as the pennant race stays tight, he probably won’t be seen in too many important situations.
- Next weekend’s series at Cleveland just got a little less scary with the news that Travis Hafner is out for the season with a broken right hand. From an objective fan’s perspective, this is really a shame, since Pronk was having an outstanding season, and had an outside chance to lead the league in homers and RBI. While he may make Twins’ fans shudder, it’s hard to think of many hitters who are more entertaining to watch than Hafner.
- Carlos Silva may have made nice with his teammates, but the PiPress’s two-headed baseball monster still hasn’t forgiven him for his early exit last week. Jason Williams suggests that, for the Twins to reach the playoffs, Silva will need to begin emulating Brad Radke, who, for all his shortcomings, was winning crucial games in August while pitching with a broken shoulder.
- The Twins aren’t the only team in the playoff race dealing with injuries. Down in Chicago, Joe Crede’s got a bad back, Bobby Jenks may or may not have a hip injury, and Ozzie Guillen’s gotta be working on a pretty good-sized ulcer right about now…
- Who says Carl Pohlad is the worst owner in baseball? People who haven’t met Jeffrey Loria, that’s who…
- LaVelle Neal has a handy roundup of the top prospects in the Twins’ system, as well as a quick assessment of their individual strengths and weaknesses. Among other interesting notes is Neal’s report on shortstop Alexi Casilla, the only position player in the top five…
- Venezuela is the new Dominican Republic as far as baseball talent is concerned, and Gordon Wittenmeyer is on the story.
- A-Rod is really having a tough year…
Friday, September 08, 2006
Links of the Day for 9/8/06
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After a week’s hiatus spent reentering the world of higher education, I return to clean out the tubes. I’m sure you missed me terribly, and I promise I’ll control my language.
After a week’s hiatus spent reentering the world of higher education, I return to clean out the tubes. I’m sure you missed me terribly, and I promise I’ll control my language.
- The Twins dropped the opener against Detroit on Thursday, 7-2. Baker took a beating, and the bats remained silent against the glory that is Justin Verlander. Cuddyer did add his ninety-third RBI on a solo homer in the 7th, so SBG has some updating to do.
- I do admit to slightly jumping the gun on the writing of these links (work beckons), but at the moment the White Sox are down 8-1 in the ninth to Cleveland. I’m going to assume no ground will be lost there, and the Twins lead will remain at one-half game (one in the loss column).
- It appears that the F-Bomb will be manning up and rejoining the Twins’ rotation sooner than later. Liriano will be making a rehab start on Saturday, and his next turn could be taken on a big-league mound. I don’t need to tell you how important this is.
- Maybe Francisco’s return will balance out the performance of The Giant Silva. You never know when he might get another tummy-ache.
- Don’t worry. If this broadcasting thing doesn’t work out for Bert, he’s got other options.
- Maybe the Target Center will start selling gyros.
Thursday, September 07, 2006
Who is the MVP?
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One of the hot topics in the Yankees series was the American League’s MVP candidates, since three of them were playing in front of the New York media. A similarly hot topic was whether a bias towards Yankees and Red Sox exist, in large part because a certain worldwide sports network is located in Connecticut. Are the Twins (or White Sox, for that matter) being short-changed? Let’s try and put homerism aside and take a look at the two groups of candidates this year:
The Sluggers
They don’t bring much to the party defensively, but they also bring bats big enough to make piñatas wish they could give up their candy prematurely. Here are their numbers (as of 9/5), with the leaders highlighted:
If there’s a clear winner on this list, I don’t see him. Travis Hafner has the highest on-base percentage (OBP) and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), but the Indians could probably have finished in fourth place with or without him. Manny Ramirez is never mentioned as a candidate, but he leads the league in slugging. Jermaine Dye has had a tremendous year, but only leads in batting average.
Lots of folks discount RBI as a performance metric, but to some extent it shows a player who is taking advantage of his opportunities. That also fits David Ortiz’s reputation, and he still leads the league, despite his recent absence. Justin Morneau doesn’t lead in anything, but certainly belongs in the debate. He’s definitely a notch below the rest in power.
You can flip a coin between these guys, and fortunately, there are still three weeks left for the race to be decided. Currently, I’d place Big Papi ahead of the field by a nose, just because the Red Sox would never have been in the playoff race without him. Morneau, Dye and Manny would be next, with Morneau having a slight lead, just because he doesn’t have as much help in the lineup, and is probably more valuable to his team. But there’s another group of players that also deserve consideration.
The Players
These guys are valuable because of what they contribute both offensively and defensively. The list is a little shorter, but no less impressive:
If the race really was between Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter, it might as well be a dead heat, depending on what you think of Jeter’s defensive value. In my mind, it’s a race for second place, because Vernon Wells is having more of an impact than either Mauer or Jeter, while playing center field for the Blue Jays, who have been on the fringes of the playoff race for most of the year.
There’s room for disagreement, even if there were not three weeks left. As of now, there is no clear cut winner, and it would be hard to claim that any player is being disrespected by not being handed the award prematurely. In fact, the only disservice that can be done at this point is not including all of these players in the debate.
On The Hill
Detroit: Wilfredo Ledezma (2-2, 2.38 ERA)
Friday: Matt Garza (1-4, 5.88 ERA)
2005(mnrs):4-4, 3.59 ERA, 75.2 IP, 89 K
2006(mnrs):14-4, 135.2 IP, 1.99 ERA, 154 K
2006: 26 IP, 30 H, 17 K, 10 BB, 3 HR
Three steps forward, one step back. In his last start, Garza struggled to throw his off-speed pitches for strikes and the Yankees eventually wore him down.
Watch the radar readings. When they’re under 90, is he throwing strikes? If so, he’s fine. If not, the Tigers will wait for the cheese (a fastball).
It seems that every game Garza starts he is hurt by Torii Hunter’s lack of range in CF. Every damn game. It’s uncanny.
One of the hot topics in the Yankees series was the American League’s MVP candidates, since three of them were playing in front of the New York media. A similarly hot topic was whether a bias towards Yankees and Red Sox exist, in large part because a certain worldwide sports network is located in Connecticut. Are the Twins (or White Sox, for that matter) being short-changed? Let’s try and put homerism aside and take a look at the two groups of candidates this year:
The Sluggers
They don’t bring much to the party defensively, but they also bring bats big enough to make piñatas wish they could give up their candy prematurely. Here are their numbers (as of 9/5), with the leaders highlighted:
| Player | Team | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | RBI |
| Justin Morneau | MIN | 491 | 0.318 | 0.400 | 0.578 | 0.978 | 114 |
| Jermaine Dye | CHW | 463 | 0.326 | 0.392 | 0.641 | 1.033 | 107 |
| Jim Thome | CHW | 421 | 0.292 | 0.414 | 0.615 | 1.029 | 95 |
| Manny Ramirez | BOS | 432 | 0.326 | 0.444 | 0.630 | 1.074 | 100 |
| David Ortiz | BOS | 487 | 0.285 | 0.400 | 0.630 | 1.030 | 121 |
| Travis Hafner | CLE | 454 | 0.308 | 0.439 | 0.659 | 1.098 | 117 |
If there’s a clear winner on this list, I don’t see him. Travis Hafner has the highest on-base percentage (OBP) and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), but the Indians could probably have finished in fourth place with or without him. Manny Ramirez is never mentioned as a candidate, but he leads the league in slugging. Jermaine Dye has had a tremendous year, but only leads in batting average.
Lots of folks discount RBI as a performance metric, but to some extent it shows a player who is taking advantage of his opportunities. That also fits David Ortiz’s reputation, and he still leads the league, despite his recent absence. Justin Morneau doesn’t lead in anything, but certainly belongs in the debate. He’s definitely a notch below the rest in power.
You can flip a coin between these guys, and fortunately, there are still three weeks left for the race to be decided. Currently, I’d place Big Papi ahead of the field by a nose, just because the Red Sox would never have been in the playoff race without him. Morneau, Dye and Manny would be next, with Morneau having a slight lead, just because he doesn’t have as much help in the lineup, and is probably more valuable to his team. But there’s another group of players that also deserve consideration.
The Players
These guys are valuable because of what they contribute both offensively and defensively. The list is a little shorter, but no less impressive:
| Player | Team | Pos | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | RBI |
| Vernon Wells | TOR | CF | 522 | 0.316 | 0.370 | 0.575 | 0.945 | 93 |
| Grady Sizemore | CLE | CF | 554 | 0.296 | 0.378 | 0.536 | 0.914 | 63 |
| Joe Mauer | MIN | C | 442 | 0.346 | 0.427 | 0.498 | 0.925 | 73 |
| Derek Jeter | NYY | SS | 529 | 0.344 | 0.421 | 0.486 | 0.907 | 84 |
If the race really was between Joe Mauer and Derek Jeter, it might as well be a dead heat, depending on what you think of Jeter’s defensive value. In my mind, it’s a race for second place, because Vernon Wells is having more of an impact than either Mauer or Jeter, while playing center field for the Blue Jays, who have been on the fringes of the playoff race for most of the year.
There’s room for disagreement, even if there were not three weeks left. As of now, there is no clear cut winner, and it would be hard to claim that any player is being disrespected by not being handed the award prematurely. In fact, the only disservice that can be done at this point is not including all of these players in the debate.
On The Hill
Detroit: Wilfredo Ledezma (2-2, 2.38 ERA)
- 2005: 2-4, 49.2 IP, 30 K, 7.07 ERA
- 2006: 41.2 IP, 34 H, 29K, 17 BB, HR
- Detroit’s playing match-ups with their last spot in the rotation, and Ledezma gets the draw versus Minnesota because he’s left-handed. You gotta love Leyland.
Friday: Matt Garza (1-4, 5.88 ERA)
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Detroit Series Preview
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Detroit
Runs – 688 (7th)
Runs Against – 546 (1st)
Status Report: Everyone was waiting for the Tigers to fade, and to some extent, they have. They’re 9-17 since they last faced the Twins, and “just” 30 games over .500. Of course, that may have something to do with them waiting for the playoffs for the last two months. Their record still puts them on pace for 98 wins this year, is good enough for a four game lead in the AL Central, and gives them the best record in the American League.
What's Not Working
For months they’ve battled the notion that they couldn’t keep up this pace, in particular because they’re inexperienced starting pitching would fade. But as the season concludes, it is their hitting that is faltering, fueled partly by an injury to their second baseman. Sound familiar?
The Tigers have a couple of weeks head start on the Twins in this story, and that’s not a good thing. Some of Detroit’s bigger (and more expensive) bats struggled through August, which has resulted in an extended slump:
Add all that up, and the Tigers, whose offense was unbelievably hot when they visited in May, have had only the 10th best offense in the American League since the All-Star break. That’s worrisome for a team heading to the post-season, and considering some of the ages of their better players (and how much more guaranteed money they have coming), it’s downright alarming.
What's Working
Obviously, not all the news has been bad, even lately. Craig Monroe has (finally) shown the power that the team anticipated, slugging 9 home runs since August 1st. Carlos Guillen has finally stayed healthy for a full year, hitting .310, slugging over .500, and continuing to produce down the stretch. Marcus Thames has finally fulfilled some of the promise that stat heads claimed he had, with 24 home runs.
Saying More Less
“But I would venture to say I say less to umpires than probably any manager in the league, and particularly at this time of year, I say even more less.''
- Detroit Tigers Manager, Jim Leyland
It’s hard to make your point to an umpire when you can only say “more less”. And Leyland made it harder still in last Thursday’s game versus the Yankees.
Leyland had a point he wanted to make after umpire James Hoye ejected him for criticizing a strike call in the Tigers half of the seventh inning. The inning finished up immediately following the ejection, and Leyland came out to argue his point.
Except that it’s the middle of the seventh inning in Yankee stadium, where Kate Smith’s recording of God Bless America is always played. And that’s proceeded by Yankees public-address announcer Bob Sheppard asking for a moment of silence.
So in the midst of arguing, Leyland honored the moment of silence. Then he listened to Kate. And then he resumed his argument.
“In my opinion, the umpire was trigger-happy. I didn't curse. I didn't do anything,” said Leyland.
“Obviously, I did after I went out there.”
But only after a respectful (and appropriate) patriotic pause. Saying more less, indeed.
On The Hill
Tigers: Justin Verlander (15-7, 3.27 ERA)
2005 (HighA-AA): 11-2, 118.2 IP, 136 K, 1.29 ERA
2006: 165 IP, 157 H, 112 K, 52 BB, 16 HR
With apologies to Jon Papelbon and Francisco Liriano, here’s your American League Rookie of the Year. And he still has to be considered a candidate for the Cy Young award, too.
See if any of this sounds familiar: the year after he was drafted in the first round, he started in A ball and was promoted quickly, ending up in the majors by the end of the year. The difference between Verlander and Matt Garza is that Verlander wasn’t forced into a pennant race last year.
Twins: Scott Baker (4-7, 6.55 ERA)
2005: 3-3. 53.2 IP, 32 K, 3.35 ERA
2006 (AAA): 5-4, 84.1 IP, 2.67 ERA, 68 K
2006: 68.2 IP, 56 K, 92 H, 15 HR
How much does this guy love playing the Yankees? His high point this season was his April win over them, and his victory in the rain last Saturday might as well have been a baptism for the new life it breathed into his starting pitching hopes.
After Silva’s start on Wednesday, Baker will need to be impressive to remain in the rotation.
Detroit
Runs – 688 (7th)
Runs Against – 546 (1st)
Status Report: Everyone was waiting for the Tigers to fade, and to some extent, they have. They’re 9-17 since they last faced the Twins, and “just” 30 games over .500. Of course, that may have something to do with them waiting for the playoffs for the last two months. Their record still puts them on pace for 98 wins this year, is good enough for a four game lead in the AL Central, and gives them the best record in the American League.
What's Not Working
For months they’ve battled the notion that they couldn’t keep up this pace, in particular because they’re inexperienced starting pitching would fade. But as the season concludes, it is their hitting that is faltering, fueled partly by an injury to their second baseman. Sound familiar?
The Tigers have a couple of weeks head start on the Twins in this story, and that’s not a good thing. Some of Detroit’s bigger (and more expensive) bats struggled through August, which has resulted in an extended slump:
- Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez, previously hitting third, has been bumped down the lineup to the 6th position. For good reason. In August, he only hit .250, and didn’t compensate for that with any power (just 2 HR) or plate discipline (17 strikeout versus 4 walks). There’s no word of an injury, so he might just be wearing down as the season progresses, similar to what we’re seeing on the Twins.
- Magglio Ordonez has struggled since the All-Star break, and like Pudge, it was made worse by a lack of power (though a home run this week may indicate that he’s bouncing back). Again, there’s no indication that an injury is the problem, but he’s also a 32-year-old who had major knee surgery just a couple of years ago.
- Detroit needs to hope that this isn’t indicative of a long-term problem, since they owe him $45 million over the next three years. Plus another $33 million for two more years if he makes 135 starts in 2009. The lesson, as always, is that Scott Boras is Lucifer.
- Coming into August, 25-year-old center fielder Curtis Granderson looked like the leadoff hitter for the next decade. But hitting .156 in August has lowered his production to the level of a fourth outfielder.
- Detroit was applauded when they were the only AL Central team who improved themselves at the trade deadline, acquiring Sean Casey from the Pirates. But Casey is only hitting .247 since the trade with just two home runs.
- Third baseman Brandon Inge’s hot hitting helped fuel Detroit’s hot start, but his power has completely deserted him and he hit just .156 last month.
Add all that up, and the Tigers, whose offense was unbelievably hot when they visited in May, have had only the 10th best offense in the American League since the All-Star break. That’s worrisome for a team heading to the post-season, and considering some of the ages of their better players (and how much more guaranteed money they have coming), it’s downright alarming.
What's Working
Obviously, not all the news has been bad, even lately. Craig Monroe has (finally) shown the power that the team anticipated, slugging 9 home runs since August 1st. Carlos Guillen has finally stayed healthy for a full year, hitting .310, slugging over .500, and continuing to produce down the stretch. Marcus Thames has finally fulfilled some of the promise that stat heads claimed he had, with 24 home runs.
Saying More Less
“But I would venture to say I say less to umpires than probably any manager in the league, and particularly at this time of year, I say even more less.''
- Detroit Tigers Manager, Jim Leyland
It’s hard to make your point to an umpire when you can only say “more less”. And Leyland made it harder still in last Thursday’s game versus the Yankees.
Leyland had a point he wanted to make after umpire James Hoye ejected him for criticizing a strike call in the Tigers half of the seventh inning. The inning finished up immediately following the ejection, and Leyland came out to argue his point.
Except that it’s the middle of the seventh inning in Yankee stadium, where Kate Smith’s recording of God Bless America is always played. And that’s proceeded by Yankees public-address announcer Bob Sheppard asking for a moment of silence.
So in the midst of arguing, Leyland honored the moment of silence. Then he listened to Kate. And then he resumed his argument.
“In my opinion, the umpire was trigger-happy. I didn't curse. I didn't do anything,” said Leyland.
“Obviously, I did after I went out there.”
But only after a respectful (and appropriate) patriotic pause. Saying more less, indeed.
On The Hill
Tigers: Justin Verlander (15-7, 3.27 ERA)
2005 (HighA-AA): 11-2, 118.2 IP, 136 K, 1.29 ERA
Twins: Scott Baker (4-7, 6.55 ERA)
Twins Takes
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Sorry for the short entry today, but I was at my fantasy football draft last night and didn't get to see much of the game. Just a couple of quick notes:
Sorry for the short entry today, but I was at my fantasy football draft last night and didn't get to see much of the game. Just a couple of quick notes:
- The updates on Francisco “The F-bomb” Liriano are so frequent as to start blending together. (Is he throwing a simulated game without cleats today or is he playing catch at 120 feet in Rochester? I forget.) But while we know exactly how many pitches he’ll throw in his first start on Thursday the 14th, we don’t know who he’s replacing in the rotation.
The answer isn’t obvious from the schedule. The 14th would have belonged to Boof Bonser, but I think it’s safe to say that he isn’t the odd man out. Carlos Silva and Scott Baker would seem to be the leading candidates, and between them they have three starts this homestand to show they deserve the last two starts. Also, reaplacing one of them would allow Matt Garza to be skipped on Monday the 18th, which will be the Twins last off day before playing 14 straight days to end the season.
So watch those three starts. Silva and Baker aren’t just pitching for two more chances to pitch this year. Both of their future is up in the air for next year, and they’ll be trying to prove they belong in 2007, too. - The PTBNL (that's player to be named later) for Phil Nevin was named and traded. It's Adam Harben. To be honest, I was a little dissappointed, though on further reflection, maybe I shouldn't have been:
- Harben hasn't been a top 10 prospect for the Twins.
- He took a step backwards this year.
- Two years ago, the Twins traded Doug Mientkiewicz for minor league pitcher Justin Jones. Tis is probably comparable. I would rank Harben as higher than Jones, but Nevin was also better to to get than Mientkiewicz, because he doesn't have any salary guaranteed for next year.
I'm just not sure the Twins really got anything they needed from the Nevin trade, since I (still) think Rondell White will outperform him. So I would have been more comfortable giving up a little less.
But what it does demonstrate is that Terry Ryan seems to recognize that this organization has some pitching depth, and can probably afford to overpay a bit for some help in the current year. That's a good sign going forward.
Coupla Twins Notes
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Sorry for the short entry today, but I was at my fantasy football draft last night and didn't get to see much of the game. Just a couple of quick notes:
Sorry for the short entry today, but I was at my fantasy football draft last night and didn't get to see much of the game. Just a couple of quick notes:
- The updates on Francisco “The F-bomb” Liriano are so frequent as to start blending together. (Is he throwing a simulated game without cleats today or is he playing catch at 120 feet in Rochester? I forget.) But while we know exactly how many pitches he’ll throw in his first start on Thursday the 14th, we don’t know who he’s replacing in the rotation.
The answer isn’t obvious from the schedule. The 14th would have belonged to Boof Bonser, but I think it’s safe to say that he isn’t the odd man out. Carlos Silva and Scott Baker would seem to be the leading candidates, and between them they have three starts this homestand to show they deserve the last two starts. Also, reaplacing one of them would allow Matt Garza to be skipped on Monday the 18th, which will be the Twins last off day before playing 14 straight days to end the season.
So watch those three starts. Silva and Baker aren’t just pitching for two more chances to pitch this year. Both of their future is up in the air for next year, and they’ll be trying to prove they belong in 2007, too. - The PTBNL (that's player to be named later) for Phil Nevin was named and traded. It's Adam Harben. To be honest, I was a little dissappointed, though on further reflection, maybe I shouldn't have been:
- Harben hasn't been a top 10 prospect for the Twins.
- He took a step backwards this year.
- Two years ago, the Twins traded Doug Mientkiewicz for minor league pitcher Justin Jones. Tis is probably comparable. I would rank Harben as higher than Jones, but Nevin was also better to to get than Mientkiewicz, because he doesn't have any salary guaranteed for next year.
I'm just not sure the Twins really got anything they needed from the Nevin trade, since I (still) think Rondell White will outperform him. So I would have been more comfortable giving up a little less.
But what it does demonstrate is that Terry Ryan seems to recognize that this organization has some pitching depth, and can probably afford to overpay a bit for some help in the current year. That's a good sign going forward.
Monday, September 04, 2006
Links of the Day for 9/5/06
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One of the benefits of being on the east coast is the easy access to the great ball parks, whether it’s Camden Yards, PNC Park or Yankee Stadium, all are within an easy day’s drive. And Friday night I hopped on a bus from D.C. to Manhattan, and took in the last two games of the Twins-Yankees series this weekend and everything that comes with a visit to the House that Ruth Built. As a newcomer to Yankee Stadium, the Labor Day weekend provided me with everything I was looking for—tickets in the always rowdy bleachers, a ride on the subway, Monument Park, roll call, groundskeepers doing the YMCA and a Twins victory.
One of the most common of the Bronx zoo’s chants was that of “M-V-P” for Derek “the Captain” Jeter. Now, of course the hometown team is going to think that their favorite player is the most valuable, but does Jeter actually deserve the award? While I did enjoy the delicious irony of watching him strikeout each day with two outs and the tying run on second while the Yankee fans screamed their vote, his numbers seem to say he’s a legitimate candidate for the award. He’s second in the AL in win shares with 25, he’s sporting a line of .342/.421./486 for the year and he’s been playing his normal, “stellar” defense.
But is he the most valuable player in the American League? Now, you may chalk this up to being a homer, but I say no. I think that Joe Mauer is the choice for the award, dependant on two things—the Twins make the playoffs and Mauer starts hitting again. Despite his slump, he’s still out performing Jeter at the plate, racking up 26 win shares and posting a .346/.427/.498 line. He also plays a much tougher position defensively and plays it much better than Jeter does. Finally, Mauer is more valuable than Jeter is because he has less help around him. If you tally up the Win Shares for the rest of the Yankees lineup, you’ll find that they have accumulated 112, while the Twins lineup only has 93.
Of course, I wasn’t stupid enough to try and make this argument to the bleacher creatures, but hopefully the readers here are slightly more receptive.
And now, some Quick Links:
One of the benefits of being on the east coast is the easy access to the great ball parks, whether it’s Camden Yards, PNC Park or Yankee Stadium, all are within an easy day’s drive. And Friday night I hopped on a bus from D.C. to Manhattan, and took in the last two games of the Twins-Yankees series this weekend and everything that comes with a visit to the House that Ruth Built. As a newcomer to Yankee Stadium, the Labor Day weekend provided me with everything I was looking for—tickets in the always rowdy bleachers, a ride on the subway, Monument Park, roll call, groundskeepers doing the YMCA and a Twins victory.
One of the most common of the Bronx zoo’s chants was that of “M-V-P” for Derek “the Captain” Jeter. Now, of course the hometown team is going to think that their favorite player is the most valuable, but does Jeter actually deserve the award? While I did enjoy the delicious irony of watching him strikeout each day with two outs and the tying run on second while the Yankee fans screamed their vote, his numbers seem to say he’s a legitimate candidate for the award. He’s second in the AL in win shares with 25, he’s sporting a line of .342/.421./486 for the year and he’s been playing his normal, “stellar” defense.
But is he the most valuable player in the American League? Now, you may chalk this up to being a homer, but I say no. I think that Joe Mauer is the choice for the award, dependant on two things—the Twins make the playoffs and Mauer starts hitting again. Despite his slump, he’s still out performing Jeter at the plate, racking up 26 win shares and posting a .346/.427/.498 line. He also plays a much tougher position defensively and plays it much better than Jeter does. Finally, Mauer is more valuable than Jeter is because he has less help around him. If you tally up the Win Shares for the rest of the Yankees lineup, you’ll find that they have accumulated 112, while the Twins lineup only has 93.
Of course, I wasn’t stupid enough to try and make this argument to the bleacher creatures, but hopefully the readers here are slightly more receptive.
And now, some Quick Links:
- As Alexi Casilla found out in his first at bat the Yankees always seem to get the breaks. Of course, like a good Twin, he managed to overcome the Yankees’ advantage anyway.
- If Boof and Baker continue to pitch as well as they have lately (and I know Baker only has 1 start since being called up), they could have a historically young playoff rotation.
- The relatively new blog “Viva Rivas!” has an interesting take on the importance of the Main Stream Media
- Finally, Wikipedia has a list of Bert’s other “incidents” as a color commentator.
Sunday, September 03, 2006
Links of the Day for Labor Day
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We sports fans spend an awful lot of time bitching and moaning about the men selected to describe ballgames on TV and radio. Entire websites are now devoted to cataloguing the supposed inadequacies of broadcasters from Joe Morgan to Joe Buck, and no sports blog worth its bandwidth ever seems able to go more than a week without taking at least a casual shot at some play-by-play man or other. Given all that, you would assume that the sporting airwaves must be filled with countless sportscasting fiascos, but in fact, most broadcasters actually manage to pull off a pretty professional show nearly all the time, even if we may hate the manner in which they do it.
Still, everyone can have a bad day, as Bert Blyleven found out at just about 12:03pm Central Time Sunday. For those who missed the beginning of today’s game on WFTC-TV, you may commence kicking yourselves immediately. (Actually, you’ll probably be able to find it on YouTube before too long. And by “before too long,” Intern Sam means “as soon as Intern Sam figures out how his video capture device works.”)
During the opening commentary just after the broadcast went on the air, Bert stumbled a few times while trying to keep up with a montage of video highlights and stats, and eventually fell hopelessly behind the video he was narrating. He then paused, and said, clear as day: “We’re gonna do this f*ckin’ thing over, ‘cause I just f*cked it up.” There was then another longish pause, during which several people in the production van probably went into cardiac arrest, and then Bert was heard to remark, “Oh, we’re live? I did not know that.”
To Bert’s credit, he apologized instantly, and actually apologized again after the next commercial break, explaining that the Twins’ broadcast team tapes many of its opens beforehand, and he had no idea that he was live on the air. (This in itself is a bit odd, since there must be a clock in the announcing booth, and it would stand to reason that if the announcing team is doing the open after the time the broadcast is scheduled to begin, the effing thing must be live. But whatever.) One would assume that Blyleven won’t face any disciplinary action from the team (though he was reprimanded earlier this season for making salacious comments about Paula Abdul) but anyone who knows anything about the television business will tell you that this likely won’t be the last we hear of the episode.
For the last two years, the FCC has been in heavy crackdown mode, issuing major fines against any station that airs indecent language, frequently even handing down fines in clearly accidental situations. Had Sunday’s Twins game been broadcast on FSN North, none of this would matter, since the FCC does not have the power to regulate content on cable networks. But the game aired on over-the-air station WFTC, and that means that the FCC, if it so chooses, could fine the station as much as $650,000 under new obscenity rules approved by Congress earlier this year. (That’s one $325,000 fine for each of Bert’s two derivations of the f-word, a tenfold increase from the old penalty.)
Further complicating the potential FCC situation is the fact that, while any fines would be levied against WFTC, the broadcaster who uttered the offending words works not for the station, but for the Twins. Would WFTC try to force the team to pay the fine? It’s a tough call, and one I’m sure the Twins and WFTC are both hoping they won’t have to make. (While the FCC has been merciless in its treatment of some offending broadcasts, it has also been wildly inconsistent, so it’s always possible that we’ll never hear of this again, particularly if the FCC doesn’t get any viewer complaints about the incident.) Anyway, most of Twins Territory probably doesn’t give a flying leap about any of this, so we’ll move on now, but the point is: Hee. Bert said f*ck. Twice.
We sports fans spend an awful lot of time bitching and moaning about the men selected to describe ballgames on TV and radio. Entire websites are now devoted to cataloguing the supposed inadequacies of broadcasters from Joe Morgan to Joe Buck, and no sports blog worth its bandwidth ever seems able to go more than a week without taking at least a casual shot at some play-by-play man or other. Given all that, you would assume that the sporting airwaves must be filled with countless sportscasting fiascos, but in fact, most broadcasters actually manage to pull off a pretty professional show nearly all the time, even if we may hate the manner in which they do it.
Still, everyone can have a bad day, as Bert Blyleven found out at just about 12:03pm Central Time Sunday. For those who missed the beginning of today’s game on WFTC-TV, you may commence kicking yourselves immediately. (Actually, you’ll probably be able to find it on YouTube before too long. And by “before too long,” Intern Sam means “as soon as Intern Sam figures out how his video capture device works.”)
During the opening commentary just after the broadcast went on the air, Bert stumbled a few times while trying to keep up with a montage of video highlights and stats, and eventually fell hopelessly behind the video he was narrating. He then paused, and said, clear as day: “We’re gonna do this f*ckin’ thing over, ‘cause I just f*cked it up.” There was then another longish pause, during which several people in the production van probably went into cardiac arrest, and then Bert was heard to remark, “Oh, we’re live? I did not know that.”
To Bert’s credit, he apologized instantly, and actually apologized again after the next commercial break, explaining that the Twins’ broadcast team tapes many of its opens beforehand, and he had no idea that he was live on the air. (This in itself is a bit odd, since there must be a clock in the announcing booth, and it would stand to reason that if the announcing team is doing the open after the time the broadcast is scheduled to begin, the effing thing must be live. But whatever.) One would assume that Blyleven won’t face any disciplinary action from the team (though he was reprimanded earlier this season for making salacious comments about Paula Abdul) but anyone who knows anything about the television business will tell you that this likely won’t be the last we hear of the episode.
For the last two years, the FCC has been in heavy crackdown mode, issuing major fines against any station that airs indecent language, frequently even handing down fines in clearly accidental situations. Had Sunday’s Twins game been broadcast on FSN North, none of this would matter, since the FCC does not have the power to regulate content on cable networks. But the game aired on over-the-air station WFTC, and that means that the FCC, if it so chooses, could fine the station as much as $650,000 under new obscenity rules approved by Congress earlier this year. (That’s one $325,000 fine for each of Bert’s two derivations of the f-word, a tenfold increase from the old penalty.)
Further complicating the potential FCC situation is the fact that, while any fines would be levied against WFTC, the broadcaster who uttered the offending words works not for the station, but for the Twins. Would WFTC try to force the team to pay the fine? It’s a tough call, and one I’m sure the Twins and WFTC are both hoping they won’t have to make. (While the FCC has been merciless in its treatment of some offending broadcasts, it has also been wildly inconsistent, so it’s always possible that we’ll never hear of this again, particularly if the FCC doesn’t get any viewer complaints about the incident.) Anyway, most of Twins Territory probably doesn’t give a flying leap about any of this, so we’ll move on now, but the point is: Hee. Bert said f*ck. Twice.
- LaVelle Neal thinks Terry Ryan will live to regret not trading a few youngsters for a veteran arm, and makes a pretty good case that acquiring help for the struggling rotation wouldn’t have necessitated the loss of a top prospect. The rotation is now well and truly in the tank, and even with the news that Francisco Liriano might be back as soon as next week, the Twins’ odds of keeping pace in the wild card race are looking pretty long, particularly if they struggle against the Tigers this week.
- There’s been plenty of Morneau-for-MVP talk, but what about Gardy for manager of the year? (Now, there’s a notion sure to be popular with readers of this site.) And how long will it be before baseball just starts letting ESPN hand out all its postseason awards to the Yankees?
- Speaking of ESPN, they’re apparently coming dangerously close to a major crisis…
- In case anyone cares, the St. Paul Saints will be facing the Fort Worth Cats for the American Association championship this week.
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Get To Know: September callups
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Minnesota Twins acquire Phil Nevin (RH-1B) from the Chicago Cubs for a Player To Be Named Later (PTBNL)
Minnesota Twins announce they will call up Scott Baker (RHP), Chris Heintz (RH-C) and Alexi Casilla (2B-SH)
As is often the case, one of these moves is going to get most of the attention, and it's the wrong one. Nevin is a good clubhouse guy who is limited defensively, supposedly can provide a productive right-handed bat as a designated hitter, but is hitting just .214 in the American Lea -- hold it, don't we have one of those already?
So why would the Twins go out and acquire another Rondell White? Well, most importantly, the price was probably right. But having Nevin also means there is a right-handed bat with some pop on the bench, whether White or Nevin is the designated hitter.
That's of value for two reasons. First, while we love the Piranhas, there are times you might want to replace one with someone who can go yard. Secondly, with Luis Castillo hurt, Luis Rodriguez will likely be pressed into duty at third base, and he's really only of use on the left side of the plate. White or Nevin can replace him late in a game for a high value at-bat, and then the Twins will play, well, umm, someone probably. Cuddy, better warm up that glove...
The bigger story is the recall of Scott Baker. A couple of days ago, we detailed why including him in the rotation should inspire some hope, but I'll list one more reason why this is a good idea; the Twins need to sort through some of these guys for 2007. Next year, they're losing Brad Radke, they'll have a four million option on Carlos Silva, and they'll likely be wondering if they can count on Francisco Liriano. That sounds a lot like a recipe for doing something silly, like picking up Silva's option, or committing money toward some Hell(ing) - ish contracts. It would be nice to know if they can count on an in-house option.
Baseball wonks may make a big deal about calling up Chris Heintz, because that will supposedly allow Joe Mauer to DH more, but it's a move that's about two months too late. I'd love to talk about how this allows the Twins to significantly upgrade the DH spot with Mauer because Jason Kubel has been so horrific lately, but Mauer has been equally horrific. Besides, right now, when Mauer isn't catching, he needs to heal.
And finally we get to Alexi Casilla, who I readily admit, I'm WAY to excited about. Casilla hit around .300 from both side of the plate, drew just about as many walks as strikeouts, and stole 50 bases in 60 attempts. OK, it was between High A and Double A ball. What can I say? I'm a sucker for speed freaks.
That's it for this week. We'll see you on Monday.
Minnesota Twins acquire Phil Nevin (RH-1B) from the Chicago Cubs for a Player To Be Named Later (PTBNL)
Minnesota Twins announce they will call up Scott Baker (RHP), Chris Heintz (RH-C) and Alexi Casilla (2B-SH)
As is often the case, one of these moves is going to get most of the attention, and it's the wrong one. Nevin is a good clubhouse guy who is limited defensively, supposedly can provide a productive right-handed bat as a designated hitter, but is hitting just .214 in the American Lea -- hold it, don't we have one of those already?
So why would the Twins go out and acquire another Rondell White? Well, most importantly, the price was probably right. But having Nevin also means there is a right-handed bat with some pop on the bench, whether White or Nevin is the designated hitter.
That's of value for two reasons. First, while we love the Piranhas, there are times you might want to replace one with someone who can go yard. Secondly, with Luis Castillo hurt, Luis Rodriguez will likely be pressed into duty at third base, and he's really only of use on the left side of the plate. White or Nevin can replace him late in a game for a high value at-bat, and then the Twins will play, well, umm, someone probably. Cuddy, better warm up that glove...
The bigger story is the recall of Scott Baker. A couple of days ago, we detailed why including him in the rotation should inspire some hope, but I'll list one more reason why this is a good idea; the Twins need to sort through some of these guys for 2007. Next year, they're losing Brad Radke, they'll have a four million option on Carlos Silva, and they'll likely be wondering if they can count on Francisco Liriano. That sounds a lot like a recipe for doing something silly, like picking up Silva's option, or committing money toward some Hell(ing) - ish contracts. It would be nice to know if they can count on an in-house option.
Baseball wonks may make a big deal about calling up Chris Heintz, because that will supposedly allow Joe Mauer to DH more, but it's a move that's about two months too late. I'd love to talk about how this allows the Twins to significantly upgrade the DH spot with Mauer because Jason Kubel has been so horrific lately, but Mauer has been equally horrific. Besides, right now, when Mauer isn't catching, he needs to heal.
And finally we get to Alexi Casilla, who I readily admit, I'm WAY to excited about. Casilla hit around .300 from both side of the plate, drew just about as many walks as strikeouts, and stole 50 bases in 60 attempts. OK, it was between High A and Double A ball. What can I say? I'm a sucker for speed freaks.
That's it for this week. We'll see you on Monday.
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Gone, but not Forgotten
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How bad is it? Yesterday the Royals were the first team in the major leagues to be officially eliminated from the playoffs. Before September. About a week before any other team.
If the Royals don't play .500 ball the rest of the year, they will still finish with 100 losses. For the fourth time in the last five years. That’s more 100-loss seasons in the 21st century than the Cubs had in the 20th century. And the nineteenth century. Combined.
They spent $21 million dollars on new players during the offseason. Wanna hear the names of the superstars? Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Bako, Reggie Sanders, Joe Mays and Mark Redman.
Even more wretching is that a good chunk of those salaries will eat up payroll dollars next year, too. This year the Royals spent about $48 million in payroll, and for next year, $35 million of that is already spoken for by six players:
The problem isn’t that these guys can’t help a team….OK, actually that is the problem. But it’s also that they’re guaranteed about 75% of the Royals likely payroll next year, and there are still nineteen spot to fill out on the roster.
While the jury is out on new GM Dayton Moore, the Royals have taken at least one step in a positive direction, because any step away from former GM Allard Baird has to be considered positive. ButBaird's legacy is still in force. Baird didn’t just sacrifice the previous six years with his incompetence, he likely sacrificed 2007 as well, and maybe further, depending on your view of the Royals minor leagues.
The Royals aren’t just bad, they’re historically bad, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they got worse before they got better.
Royals: Jorge De La Rosa(3-3, 8.13 ERA)
Thursday: Johan Santana (15-5, 3.01 ERA)
How bad is it? Yesterday the Royals were the first team in the major leagues to be officially eliminated from the playoffs. Before September. About a week before any other team.
If the Royals don't play .500 ball the rest of the year, they will still finish with 100 losses. For the fourth time in the last five years. That’s more 100-loss seasons in the 21st century than the Cubs had in the 20th century. And the nineteenth century. Combined.
They spent $21 million dollars on new players during the offseason. Wanna hear the names of the superstars? Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Bako, Reggie Sanders, Joe Mays and Mark Redman.
Even more wretching is that a good chunk of those salaries will eat up payroll dollars next year, too. This year the Royals spent about $48 million in payroll, and for next year, $35 million of that is already spoken for by six players:
- Mike Sweeney ($11 M) - 33-year-old with a bad back who has hit four home runs this year
- Odalis Perez ($7.75M) – LH Pitcher who has a 6.11 ERA in the 88 innings he’s pitched in 2006.
- Sanders ($5M) – 38-year-old outfielder who barely has 600 at-bats in the last two years.
- Elarton ($4M) – 5.34 ERA this year. On pace for about 150 innings, total.
- Grudzielanek ($4M) – 36-year-old second baseman, who is also under contract for 2008.
- Angel Berroa ($3.25M) – Shortstop who is hitting .237. Also under contract through 2008.
The problem isn’t that these guys can’t help a team….OK, actually that is the problem. But it’s also that they’re guaranteed about 75% of the Royals likely payroll next year, and there are still nineteen spot to fill out on the roster.
While the jury is out on new GM Dayton Moore, the Royals have taken at least one step in a positive direction, because any step away from former GM Allard Baird has to be considered positive. ButBaird's legacy is still in force. Baird didn’t just sacrifice the previous six years with his incompetence, he likely sacrificed 2007 as well, and maybe further, depending on your view of the Royals minor leagues.
The Royals aren’t just bad, they’re historically bad, and it wouldn’t be shocking if they got worse before they got better.
On the Hill
Royals: Jorge De La Rosa(3-3, 8.13 ERA)
- 2005: 2-2, 42.1 IP, 42 K, 4.47 ERA
- 2006: 52 IP, 56 H, 48 K, 36 BB, 10 HR
- De La Rosa was a left-handed reliever on the Brewers who was sent to the minors to rehab a cracked nail and blister. (How great is that?) He looked awfully good there, and so the Royals traded for him at the deadline when the Brewers asked for Tony Graffanino. So far, he hasn’t carried that success with him to the majors, as evidence by his 7.48 ERA as a starter with the Royals.
Thursday: Johan Santana (15-5, 3.01 ERA)
- 2005: 16-7, 231.2 IP, 238 K, 2.87 ERA. Led league in strikeouts, second best ERA, third place in Cy Young voting.
- 2006: 191.1 IP, 157 H, 196 K, 39 BB, 21 HR
- So, what does the Cy Young scoreboard look like? He’s first in ERA, first in Ks, and second in wins (that blown save by Nathan on Saturday kept him from moving into first). He’s also first in batting average against, and on-base percentage against, and second in innings pitched. Roy Halladay is having a great year, and there’s still time for a late stretch move, but as they round the bend, Santana is in the lead by at least a length.
Links of the Day
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It's amazing how a 1/2 game lead in the wildcard can make the Twins a lock for the playoffs. I wonder if our new 1.5 game deficit makes us long shots?
Tuesday's loss to Kansas City was a bit of a downer coming off of an emotional series in Chicago. Garza made his case for being Radke's replacement next year by chalking up a quality start and still losing the game. News from one of Bat-girl's sources has explained he Twins inexplicable offensive ineptitude against Mark Redman last night, it has the making for a good sit-com. It's a relief, I was worried that the Twins came down with another case of the ass-bats.
In case you missed it, both Aaron Gleeman and Will Young have made their cases for the MVPs and weakest links of the team. They both used WPA and revealed some surprising conclusions, notably that Torrii Hunter's value on the team is roughly the equivalent of a Carlos Silva- albeit an expensive equivalent. A players value to a franchise can not be summed up by one statistic, but I wonder how much these sorts of numbers affect the front office's assessment of a player's value.
As far as I can tell the Twins stadium past it's final hurdle yesterday. Like it or not, we appear to be past the point of no return.
It's amazing how a 1/2 game lead in the wildcard can make the Twins a lock for the playoffs. I wonder if our new 1.5 game deficit makes us long shots?
Tuesday's loss to Kansas City was a bit of a downer coming off of an emotional series in Chicago. Garza made his case for being Radke's replacement next year by chalking up a quality start and still losing the game. News from one of Bat-girl's sources has explained he Twins inexplicable offensive ineptitude against Mark Redman last night, it has the making for a good sit-com. It's a relief, I was worried that the Twins came down with another case of the ass-bats.
In case you missed it, both Aaron Gleeman and Will Young have made their cases for the MVPs and weakest links of the team. They both used WPA and revealed some surprising conclusions, notably that Torrii Hunter's value on the team is roughly the equivalent of a Carlos Silva- albeit an expensive equivalent. A players value to a franchise can not be summed up by one statistic, but I wonder how much these sorts of numbers affect the front office's assessment of a player's value.
As far as I can tell the Twins stadium past it's final hurdle yesterday. Like it or not, we appear to be past the point of no return.
The Silver Linings
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One of the least covered disadvantages of being a small payroll team is that they can develop a great player, and it means nothing in the larger scheme of things. If a competitive team like the Red Sox develops a young player, that player is a contributor to a winning team. If the Royals develop a young player, he’s just another guy on a 100-loss ball club. Which is a shame, because the Royals have some success stories.
The most obvious is the play of third baseman Mark Teahen. Teahen surprised everyone last year when he replaced Chris Truby as the regular third baseman as a 23-year-old. He surprised the opposite way when he struggled early this season due to a shoulder injury. He was demoted back to Omaha in May, recalled in June, and hasn’t stopped hitting. Since his recall, he’s hitting .323 with 17 home runs in just 284 at-bats. He’s exactly what the Royals need – a solid hitting youngster who won’t be expensive for another couple of years.
Except that that he plays third base, which is also the position of their top prospect, Alex Gordon. Gordon is one of the top offensive prospects in baseball, and was just drafted last year, as the second overall pick. The 22-year-old is currently beating up AA pitchers, hitting .323 with 27 home runs an a 1018 On-base Plus Slugging percentage (OPS). Maybe most surprising is that he won’t receive a September callup, and won’t skip AAA next year. That’s a bit of a departure from the previous regime’s tendency to rush players to the majors.
As you'll see tomorrow, the Royals have exactly one long-term contract that isn't a loadstone. It belongs to David DeJesus, the 26-year-old center fielder who continues to be productive in his third year in the majors, hitting .303 with a .379 on-base percentage (OBP) and an 824 OPS. The Royals still try to hide him occasionally versus southpaws, but he’ll have some time to work on that. He’s signed through 2010 for a little more than $3 million per year, and the team has an option on 2011, too.
Over the past few years, the Royals have had their success stories offensively, but have had precious few for their pitching staff. There still aren’t many, but there are some positive signs to build on. Luke Hudson seems to be overcoming his traditional control issues with a new sinker, and has been very solid for the Royals the second half of the season. Zach Greinke seems to have overcome his personal issues and had pitched well enough in AA to warrant a September call-up. And 2006 #1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar is signed and pitching in Low A ball. It wouldn’t be inconceivable for him to see time in the Royals rotation in 2008. They’re mild success stories, but this franchise will take them.
Wednesday: Luke Hudson (6-5, 5.94 ERA)
2006: 63.2 IP, 75 H, 38 K, 27 BB, 4 HR
Those stat lines are deceptive. He started the year in the Royals bullpen and struggled throughout April, finally being sent to AAA with an 8.74 ERA.
After having success in Omaha, he was promoted as a starter and has been very good except for one outing that you may have seen on SportsCenter. On August 13th he took the mound versus Cleveland and gave up 11 runs in 1/3 of an inning. Throw out that start and he has a 3.65 ERA since July 1st as a starter.
Twins: Boof Bonser (3-4, 5.18 ERA)
A couple of note on last night's game which I was lucky enough to attend (Happy Birthday Dave!):
Huh. Lotta negativity in this post. So be it, I guess. Anyone leaving the Metrodome last night must’ve felt a little empty, unless they were a Royal. Shake it off boys, and I will, too. See you tomorrow.
One of the least covered disadvantages of being a small payroll team is that they can develop a great player, and it means nothing in the larger scheme of things. If a competitive team like the Red Sox develops a young player, that player is a contributor to a winning team. If the Royals develop a young player, he’s just another guy on a 100-loss ball club. Which is a shame, because the Royals have some success stories.
The most obvious is the play of third baseman Mark Teahen. Teahen surprised everyone last year when he replaced Chris Truby as the regular third baseman as a 23-year-old. He surprised the opposite way when he struggled early this season due to a shoulder injury. He was demoted back to Omaha in May, recalled in June, and hasn’t stopped hitting. Since his recall, he’s hitting .323 with 17 home runs in just 284 at-bats. He’s exactly what the Royals need – a solid hitting youngster who won’t be expensive for another couple of years.
Except that that he plays third base, which is also the position of their top prospect, Alex Gordon. Gordon is one of the top offensive prospects in baseball, and was just drafted last year, as the second overall pick. The 22-year-old is currently beating up AA pitchers, hitting .323 with 27 home runs an a 1018 On-base Plus Slugging percentage (OPS). Maybe most surprising is that he won’t receive a September callup, and won’t skip AAA next year. That’s a bit of a departure from the previous regime’s tendency to rush players to the majors.
As you'll see tomorrow, the Royals have exactly one long-term contract that isn't a loadstone. It belongs to David DeJesus, the 26-year-old center fielder who continues to be productive in his third year in the majors, hitting .303 with a .379 on-base percentage (OBP) and an 824 OPS. The Royals still try to hide him occasionally versus southpaws, but he’ll have some time to work on that. He’s signed through 2010 for a little more than $3 million per year, and the team has an option on 2011, too.
Over the past few years, the Royals have had their success stories offensively, but have had precious few for their pitching staff. There still aren’t many, but there are some positive signs to build on. Luke Hudson seems to be overcoming his traditional control issues with a new sinker, and has been very solid for the Royals the second half of the season. Zach Greinke seems to have overcome his personal issues and had pitched well enough in AA to warrant a September call-up. And 2006 #1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar is signed and pitching in Low A ball. It wouldn’t be inconceivable for him to see time in the Royals rotation in 2008. They’re mild success stories, but this franchise will take them.
On the Hill
Wednesday: Luke Hudson (6-5, 5.94 ERA)
Twins: Boof Bonser (3-4, 5.18 ERA)
- ‘05 (AAA):11-9, 160.1 IP, 168 K, 3.99 ERA
- ‘06 (AAA):49.1 IP, 33 H, 47 K, 20 BB, 3 HR
- ‘06: 57.1 IP, 66 H, 46 K, 17 BB, 13 HR
- On the one hand, he’s improved in each start since his recall, and he’s faced some very good offenses.
- On the other hand, he’s still giving up way too many home runs, especially as he starts to tire and the ball starts to elevate. It would be nice if I could say that he’s surviving because he’s keeping people off the bases, but that isn’t true either. They just haven’t been on base when he’s giving up the home runs.
- Keep the ball down. Keep the ball down. Keep the ball….
Twins Takes
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A couple of note on last night's game which I was lucky enough to attend (Happy Birthday Dave!):
- Just four days ago I woke up after a critical win realizing that the rest of the season was in question because a starting pitcher looked done. Today I woke up after a critical loss realizing the rest of the season was promising because a starting pitcher looked wonderful. And I gotta say, I liked the other way better.
- That said, Matt Garza DID look wonderful last night, or at least he did from down the first base line. Early on we were watching the radar gun to see if his offspeed stuff was being called for strikes, and it was, and we knew we were in for a treat. He lived up to expectations.
But about midway through the game, I started to wonder if the umpire's strike zone didn't have something to do with that. Not because I could actually see the umpire's strike zone, but because Mark Redman, who has struggled with his control, looked like he was nibbling the corners perfectly. (By the way, kudos to La Velle E. Neal III for pointing out that Redman didn’t walk a batter last night, and addressing the question with Ron Gardenhire.)
Which led to another realization last in the game, which is that the Win statistic which we’re so fond of ridiculing might have made a lot more sense fifty or seventy years ago, when strike zones likely were a little more variable. In fact, it might just make a lot more sense as a statistic for a single game, and our mistake is trying to make them mean something when we aggregate them.
None of which means that they should be the biggest single factor in awarding the Cy Young Award. But still, maybe we should lighten up on that poor stat a bit. - While we’re on the subject of pitching, it’s worth noting that the Garza’s two runs were given up on a long line shot to center field that Torii Hunter couldn’t reach, but 60% or center fielders could. Is there any pitcher who has been hurt more by Hunter’s lack of range than poor Garza? Jason Tyner, unless he’s playing extraordinarily shallow, catches that ball and Garza carries his own shutout into the eighth inning.
It is absolutely stunning that this point has not been made a single time in a daily here, but Hunter should NOT be playing center field until he’s healed. If Tyner is going to be out there anyway, why the hell isn’t he playing center field? It is maddening that Gardenhire hasn’t figured out a way to tactfully handle this kind of situation. - Which brings us to the next situation he isn’t handling, which is having an obviously hurting Joe Mauer batting third in this lineup. The only reason Mauer didn’t ground into four double plays yesterday is because three of the times there was either nobody on first or there were two outs. It’s gotten to the point where he should consider changing his uniform number to 4-3.
Let’s be clear: there is a reason this goofy lineup of “piranhas” and sluggers works, and it’s because the bridge between them is so damn good, and that bridge has been Mauer in the #3 spot. And right now, because of something physical, that bridge is broken. There is no shame in moving an obviously hurting player to a different part of the order until they regain their health. There are at least four guys hitting better than Mauer right now, and maybe more, and until he gets healthy, he needs to switch spots with one of them. - Like I said, we were pretty in touch with radar readings last night, so maybe I just never noticed before, but does Pat Neshek’s fastball really top out at 87 mph? The way a couple of Royals tagged the ball last night, I’m afraid that isn't supposed to be the case.
Huh. Lotta negativity in this post. So be it, I guess. Anyone leaving the Metrodome last night must’ve felt a little empty, unless they were a Royal. Shake it off boys, and I will, too. See you tomorrow.
Monday, August 28, 2006
Old Name, Old Lesson
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The whole year has been a forced exercise in trusting youth. Will anyone really be surprised if the Twins need to trust another unproven rookie to carry them if Brad Radke’s shoulder doesn’t respond?
Most Twins fans will likely shudder a little if that means trusting Scott Baker again. But though Baker has struggled this season, one need not go back very far to remember exactly how much promise this 24-year-old holds. How about April, when he was the Twins second best pitcher? Or last year, when he posted a 3.35 ERA in his 10 major league starts? If you want to go further back, you might recall that two years ago he was the 2004 version of Matt Garza, racing from A-ball to AAA-ball in his first full year in professional baseball. There were legitimate reasons why this guy ranked above Francisco Liriano in the pecking order this spring.
There’s no indication from his stats in Rochester that he’s taken a step backwards. In Baker’s dozen starts there, he has a 2.67 ERA, and isn’t showing any of the gopher ball tendencies he’s shown in the majors. We’ve heard a lot about how some minor leaguers can coast through AAA on their fastball, but Baker’s never had that kind of “stuff”. His reputation is that of a control pitcher, whose strength has been throwing off-speed pitches.
When we step back and look at Baker’s profile, we see the same lesson that we’ve learned a dozen times already this season – it would be damn foolish to think that this kid can’t succeed. Or that he would somehow be less successful over the next month then a scrap-heap rent-a-pitcher that Terry Ryan might pick up before the final trade deadline on Thursday.
What to Look For
The town is giddy over the performance of the bullpen, and for good reason considering they’ve carried this team for the last two weeks. Also, nobody is reporting any injuries or concerns in the media, so maybe there really is nothing wrong with Juan Rincon. On the other hand…
In two of his last three outings, he’s given up a couple of runs before getting a second out. In the other outing, he was only asked to throw eight pitches. And twice more in the last week Ron Gardenhire has relied on Jesse Crain to pitch an eighth inning that traditionally belonged to Rincon. While everyone worries about overworking the bullpen, Rincon has pitched just 1.1 innings in the last three series.
The usage is surprising. The silence is more surprising. And I’ll be surprised if we don’t hear about some health concerns by the end of the week.
On the Hill
Royals: Mark Redman (7-8, 5.85 ERA)
Twins: Matt Garza (1-2, 6.59 ERA)
The whole year has been a forced exercise in trusting youth. Will anyone really be surprised if the Twins need to trust another unproven rookie to carry them if Brad Radke’s shoulder doesn’t respond?
Most Twins fans will likely shudder a little if that means trusting Scott Baker again. But though Baker has struggled this season, one need not go back very far to remember exactly how much promise this 24-year-old holds. How about April, when he was the Twins second best pitcher? Or last year, when he posted a 3.35 ERA in his 10 major league starts? If you want to go further back, you might recall that two years ago he was the 2004 version of Matt Garza, racing from A-ball to AAA-ball in his first full year in professional baseball. There were legitimate reasons why this guy ranked above Francisco Liriano in the pecking order this spring.
There’s no indication from his stats in Rochester that he’s taken a step backwards. In Baker’s dozen starts there, he has a 2.67 ERA, and isn’t showing any of the gopher ball tendencies he’s shown in the majors. We’ve heard a lot about how some minor leaguers can coast through AAA on their fastball, but Baker’s never had that kind of “stuff”. His reputation is that of a control pitcher, whose strength has been throwing off-speed pitches.
When we step back and look at Baker’s profile, we see the same lesson that we’ve learned a dozen times already this season – it would be damn foolish to think that this kid can’t succeed. Or that he would somehow be less successful over the next month then a scrap-heap rent-a-pitcher that Terry Ryan might pick up before the final trade deadline on Thursday.
What to Look For
The town is giddy over the performance of the bullpen, and for good reason considering they’ve carried this team for the last two weeks. Also, nobody is reporting any injuries or concerns in the media, so maybe there really is nothing wrong with Juan Rincon. On the other hand…
In two of his last three outings, he’s given up a couple of runs before getting a second out. In the other outing, he was only asked to throw eight pitches. And twice more in the last week Ron Gardenhire has relied on Jesse Crain to pitch an eighth inning that traditionally belonged to Rincon. While everyone worries about overworking the bullpen, Rincon has pitched just 1.1 innings in the last three series.
The usage is surprising. The silence is more surprising. And I’ll be surprised if we don’t hear about some health concerns by the end of the week.
On the Hill
Royals: Mark Redman (7-8, 5.85 ERA)
- 2005: 5-15, 178.1 IP, 101 K, 4.90 ERA
- 2006: 129.1 IP, 158 H, 57 K, 52 BB, 17 HR
- Ladies and Gentlemen, posting a 5.85 ERA and 57 strikeouts, the All-Star representative for the Kansas City Royals! Let’s hear it!
- Redman probably holds the distinction of being the worst trade that Ryan ever made. In 2001, Ryan tried to complete three trades that would have upgraded the team’s pitching (Rick Reed for Mark Redman), its outfield (Shannon Stewart for Matt Lawton) and its bullpen (gaining Todd Jones). Ryan completed two of the three trades, but couldn’t finish the deal for Stewart with Blue Jays GM Gord Ash. That preceded an incredible collapse as the team finished six games behind the Indians.
Twins: Matt Garza (1-2, 6.59 ERA)
- 2005: (between rookie and low-A affiliates): 4-4, 3.59 ERA, 75.2 IP, 89 K, 67 H
- 2006 (minors): 14-4, 135.2 IP, 154 K, 1.99 ERA
- Garza carries a mid-90’s fastball, a change up and a couple of breaking balls.
- One bad start, followed by a mediocre one, had people wondering. But these players have histories beyond our exposure to them. It may take a couple of weeks for him to settle in, but 95+ mph fastballs have a way of buying time for a prospect to adjust. His history suggests he’ll do just that.
- Watch the radar readings. When they’re under 90, is he throwing strikes? If so, he’s fine. If not, the Royals will wait for the cheese.
Links of the Day for 8/28/06
Powered by Intern Thomas
After reading some of the following links, you’ll see why I intern for the Geek rather than have my own Twins’ blog—the quality of the writers who devote time to posting on Twins’ blogs is unparalleled. There’s a reason why many of them spend their non Twins time getting paid to write about other subjects. All talent like that needs is inspiration, and, well, I think we can all agree that the games the Twins and Sox gave us on Friday and Saturday are about as inspirational as they come—We’re talking Jesus’ final gathering with his disciples and French ponds full of water lilies level inspiration Those games were art my friends, they were art. And all of our favorite bloggers delivered:
Batgirl’s choices for Boyfriend of the Day on Friday and Saturday combined her amazing writing skills with the exuberance of her commenters to create posts that are worth visiting again later, especially when the snow is falling in January and February and Spring Training seems so very far away.
Mr. Baseball No 1 might be a newcomer this year, but his writing measures up with the big names amongst the bloggers. Like some great artists, he used a small part of an image to capture the feel of the whole. Though he did forget to mention Morneau’s groin popping stretch. Maybe he needs to be sent down to Rochester to work on his leadership skills.
The beat writers haven’t yet figured out stats like Win Probability Added, but luckily for us, Will Young has, and he broke down Friday's and Saturday’s instant classics this weekend. And, if you want to look back at one of the few games the Twins have played that was as exciting, you can find his WPA for the Rivera game here.
And finally, some quick links:
After reading some of the following links, you’ll see why I intern for the Geek rather than have my own Twins’ blog—the quality of the writers who devote time to posting on Twins’ blogs is unparalleled. There’s a reason why many of them spend their non Twins time getting paid to write about other subjects. All talent like that needs is inspiration, and, well, I think we can all agree that the games the Twins and Sox gave us on Friday and Saturday are about as inspirational as they come—We’re talking Jesus’ final gathering with his disciples and French ponds full of water lilies level inspiration Those games were art my friends, they were art. And all of our favorite bloggers delivered:
Batgirl’s choices for Boyfriend of the Day on Friday and Saturday combined her amazing writing skills with the exuberance of her commenters to create posts that are worth visiting again later, especially when the snow is falling in January and February and Spring Training seems so very far away.
Mr. Baseball No 1 might be a newcomer this year, but his writing measures up with the big names amongst the bloggers. Like some great artists, he used a small part of an image to capture the feel of the whole. Though he did forget to mention Morneau’s groin popping stretch. Maybe he needs to be sent down to Rochester to work on his leadership skills.
The beat writers haven’t yet figured out stats like Win Probability Added, but luckily for us, Will Young has, and he broke down Friday's and Saturday’s instant classics this weekend. And, if you want to look back at one of the few games the Twins have played that was as exciting, you can find his WPA for the Rivera game here.
And finally, some quick links:
- Looks like the Twins don’t mind their fans booing A.J. And my guess is his actions this weekend changed some fans stances from love to hate of the trash talking catcher.
- If you were wondering, Pat Neshek did enjoy striking out A.J. on Saturday. I’m guessing he wasn’t the only one.
- It seems like baseball is not the only sport with doping problems. Wonder what’s taking the national media so long to pick up on it?
- The Skip Bayless Era is over at Page 2. Thank God.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
A Baseball Town
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This weekend, as Joe Nathan attempted to coax that last strike, the crowd stood up and started clapping. Most were adorned wearing their favorite team’s colors. When the umpire signaled the last out, a cheer erupted, fans flooded the aisles, and congratulatory high fives were shared between strangers.
Nothing unusual about that, right?
Except that this game was played on the road. The colors that fans were wearing were purple, not blue pinstripes. And this happened in a bar in downtown Minneapolis, not the Metrodome. How could it, when the Vikings had just wrapped up a preseason game there? That game had ended an hour earlier, and now the town belonged to a different team, and if there were any concerns about divided loyalties, they weren’t apparent.
They weren’t apparent the next night, either, when the scene repeated itself in a restaurant in Edina. The patrons’ outfits were different – ties replaced gold beads and suit coats substituted for jerseys. There was a wedding reception elsewhere in the restaurant, which was half empty as fifteen to twenty Twins fans congregated in the bar to see if Willie Eyre could close out the eleventh inning. The explosive cheer that confirmed a game ending double-play wasn’t what diners were accustomed to hearing during their meals.
That’s because the Twin Cities really aren’t baseball towns. Both cities have a long history, but the passion in this area if for football and hockey, not baseball. That only changes, if we’re lucky, a couple of times per year, and we are entering that time right now.
There’s nothing in American sports that compares to baseball’s pennant race. In other sports, there’s inevitably some downtime between games, used to review the last game, prepare for the next game, or even to generate hype to help pass the time. But time isn’t a luxury afforded pennant race participants or their fans. There is not time to digest. The slowest and most genteel of the major professional sports demands that fans surf along from wave to wave.
As a result, there is nightly drama that can be seen on multiple stages. So do yourself a favor when the Twins aren’t in town – go out to catch a game. Stop at one of the bars around the stadium, or eat dinner at a sports restaurant, or invite some buddies over for some tailgating in the backyard. Feed your city’s appetite for baseball.
Because if you’re a baseball fan, this is your time. We may not live in a baseball town eleven months out of the year, but we did this weekend.
This weekend, as Joe Nathan attempted to coax that last strike, the crowd stood up and started clapping. Most were adorned wearing their favorite team’s colors. When the umpire signaled the last out, a cheer erupted, fans flooded the aisles, and congratulatory high fives were shared between strangers.
Nothing unusual about that, right?
Except that this game was played on the road. The colors that fans were wearing were purple, not blue pinstripes. And this happened in a bar in downtown Minneapolis, not the Metrodome. How could it, when the Vikings had just wrapped up a preseason game there? That game had ended an hour earlier, and now the town belonged to a different team, and if there were any concerns about divided loyalties, they weren’t apparent.
They weren’t apparent the next night, either, when the scene repeated itself in a restaurant in Edina. The patrons’ outfits were different – ties replaced gold beads and suit coats substituted for jerseys. There was a wedding reception elsewhere in the restaurant, which was half empty as fifteen to twenty Twins fans congregated in the bar to see if Willie Eyre could close out the eleventh inning. The explosive cheer that confirmed a game ending double-play wasn’t what diners were accustomed to hearing during their meals.
That’s because the Twin Cities really aren’t baseball towns. Both cities have a long history, but the passion in this area if for football and hockey, not baseball. That only changes, if we’re lucky, a couple of times per year, and we are entering that time right now.
There’s nothing in American sports that compares to baseball’s pennant race. In other sports, there’s inevitably some downtime between games, used to review the last game, prepare for the next game, or even to generate hype to help pass the time. But time isn’t a luxury afforded pennant race participants or their fans. There is not time to digest. The slowest and most genteel of the major professional sports demands that fans surf along from wave to wave.
As a result, there is nightly drama that can be seen on multiple stages. So do yourself a favor when the Twins aren’t in town – go out to catch a game. Stop at one of the bars around the stadium, or eat dinner at a sports restaurant, or invite some buddies over for some tailgating in the backyard. Feed your city’s appetite for baseball.
Because if you’re a baseball fan, this is your time. We may not live in a baseball town eleven months out of the year, but we did this weekend.
Friday, August 25, 2006
Links of the Day for 8/24/06
Powered by Intern Sharkey
This might be the last week you see me doing the links. I feel that I’m being under-compensated, and I’m tired of being the #3 intern. If the Geek doesn’t sweeten the deal here in a hurry, we could be looking at an extended holdout. At least, that’s what my buddy Ashley says I should do.
This might be the last week you see me doing the links. I feel that I’m being under-compensated, and I’m tired of being the #3 intern. If the Geek doesn’t sweeten the deal here in a hurry, we could be looking at an extended holdout. At least, that’s what my buddy Ashley says I should do.
- The day after rookie Matt Garza snared his first major league win (and first major league pie in the face), fellow rookie Boof “Bail” Bonsor pitched the Twins to a 2-1 series win in Baltimore. The Twins pounded out 17 hits, including three by Joe Mauer to get his average up over .360.
- No one needs to be told how big this weekend’s series in Shee-cago is. Just 1/2 game behind the World Champs, the Twins will be throwing out Radke, Santana, and Silva.
- And some good news for the Twins: there will be no Thome envy in The Cell this weekend. The White Sox masher strained his hamstring Wednesday night, and is out for the Twins series. Oh, darn. No one for Reyes to pitch to.
- Man, look at that professional segue. That’s why I deserve the big bucks. The Twins inked their lone lefty to a fresh two-year extension worth two million clams. Jesse breaks it down here. Now, granted, he may not be in the best of shape. But he looks sculpted next to some of these “athletes”.
- Now generally, I like to leave you with something pithy and amusing. But… it’s the White Sox this weekend. Enjoy it.
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