Baseball's Happy Lexicon

With apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams

This shortest of phrases makes our hearts soar
Pitchers and catchers report
With driveways unshoveled and lower backs sore
Pitchers and catchers report
Still bitter that this year the Yankees are kings
We yearn for the vengeance a new season brings
Like Hornsby we stare out the window for spring
Pitchers and catchers report

Four tiny words and hope’s candle’s lit
Pitchers and catchers report
Words shorter than Punto (who gets after it)
Pitchers and catchers report
A winter spent searching for MLB rumors
Praying that Bill Smith makes a big move or
signs our boy Joe. Can’t spring come any sooner?
Pitchers and catchers report

Sunday they’ll gather and Gardy will praise
Pitchers and catchers report
his cherry extract and Hardy’s slick plays
Pitcher and catchers report
Delmon will swing at a wormburning pitch
Justin will smile cuz the pitcher’s his bitch
While Nathan does something bizarre with his lips
Pitchers and catchers report

Finally you take your turn as poet
Pitchers and catchers report
Channel your winter frustration and show it
Pitchers and catchers report
The comments below are a great place to bleat
Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat
(But add words wherever, if like me you cheat)
Pitchers and catchers report

Stats Attack: Kansas City Royals

Yesterday I gave some advice to some new bloggers. "Take risks," I said. "Try stuff, " I said. "The beauty of a blog is that you have nothing to lose," I said.

Then I blow a pretty good night on trying something new, get about halfway done and I'm not particularly happy with that half. Great. If you think I'm not publishing the damn thing, you've got another thing coming.

Recently I saw a copy of another independent program and scorecard from Seattle called Grand Salami. In the middle of it, they have two pages about the teams the Mariners will play that month, one of which is text and the other one is a stats page with a lot of notes written in. I wondered if that stats page might be something I could come up with regularly when the Twins play opposing team in a big series. How hard could it be?

Answer: if you want to do it the way I want to do it, it's a pain. I don't want the basic stats. I want to see OPS, and I want it against lefties and righties. I want ages. I want defensive metrics like UZR/150 and I really want WPA. Ideally I'd also like to see how players did against specific players from the Twins.

There isn't a site that has all those stats in a fairly easy way to grab them. I could probably design a db to grab a bunch of extracts and get close, but that sure ain't happening tonight. So I grabbed a few of them, typed them in and then started on the notes.

Turns out, the notes aren't too easy either. First, without a pdf converter on my PC, there wasn't a great program to go about doing the graphics. Then, I found out that I lacked space to explain some of the stats the way I probably should, like WPA. And since I ended up doing it in MS-Paint, fixing errors was damn near impossible.

Anyway, here is the first stab at it. I was hoping I could put an actual file into my blog someplace, like in a rich text field, but it looks like I'm limited to a .jpg. too. So it'll probably be too small. Mostly this whole entry is a test to see if I click on it if it will get big enough to read.

We'll see. Good night. Feedback is welcome.

Housekeeping and a Surprise

One of the challenges bloggers face is not having time to read very many other blogs. We either write or we read, and so we write. That's unfortunate for the us, but it's really a bummer for the newer bloggers. Many of them deserve attention and links but don't get them because the rest of us just don't have time to check in on them on a daily basis.

After checking out the various entries on Friday for Nick Punto Day, I'm pretty sure that there has never been more talent writing about the Twins than there is today. And a lot of them should be more front-and-center than they are.

A few years back we tried to address that in a small way. We created MNGameDay.com as a place where all Twins bloggers could have their posts featured, provided we had their RSS feed. You'll also see the same compilation on the right-hand side of this blog. If you have a Twins blog that you don't think is listed in it, please let me know (in the comments is fine) and we (or rather Tom Genrich, who is really the caretaker of the site) will add it.

Anyway, one such new blogger is Topper Anton of Curve for a Strike who is is a talented writer and film professional living in New York despite being only 10 years old. Or at least I assume he's only 10 years old, because he was born the same year I graduated high school, and I'm pretty sure that wasn't more than 10 years ago. Give or take 15 years.

Anyway, Topper is taking on this problem of calling attention to bloggers in a different way. This offseason he's been running a series called "Twins Bloggers: Get to Know 'Em". If you swing by his site you'll find all kinds of profiles for all kinds of Twins bloggers, and today's entry is mine.

I wrote it a week or so ago and thanks to brain damage from my misspent youth, I already remember almost none of it. Which means I'm partially terrified of what I might have written, but also very curious as to what I had to say. Hopefully it won't disappoint.

Remembering R.D.

Since 1986, when Tom Kelly took over the Twins, it seems like the Twins have generally had decent bullpens (with the recent exception of 2008). But Kelly was hired at about the same time as "closer" Ron Davis was traded away. Coincidence?

Not to Twins fans who watched this team in the 80s it wasn't.

I don't remember a lot about teams in the mid-80s, and I'm pretty sure that's a defense mechanism. But I still shudder slightly at the words "Ron Davis." I vaguely remember working in kitchen of Big Boy on France, listening to the game, and feeling like I'd been kicked in the stomach, night after night.

I thought of this today while doing a little research on those mid-80s teams. The core of the 1987 team was put together during the early 80s, and by 1984 they were in the pennant race up until the final few games. Of course, they lost those final few games, including one in which they led 10-0. Guess who failed to close them out?

But there was still plenty of optimism starting the 1985 season. Instead the Twins struggled out of the gate, and manager Billy Gardner (who had coached the team since 1981) was fired in late June. The Twins record at that time was 27-35, and a lot of that had to do with Davis and the bullpen. Up until Gardner being fired, Davis had six saves versus five losses. Bringing him into a game was like flipping a coin.

For whatever reason, his performance improved significantly under new manager Ray Miller. He saved an additional 19 games and didn't blow a save again until late September. Similarly, the Twins also played better, tallying a .500 record under Miller and finishing in fourth place with a 77-85 record. Davis would save his really fantastic meltdowns for the next year, which I'm looking forward to researching the same way I look forward to remembering my last proctology exam.

Looking back at that core of players and the damage the bullpen did, I wonder if the Twins of 1985 and 1986 couldn't have been contenders those years too. I wonder if the bullpen didn't mask how good a team this really was, leading to the magic of 1987.

Nick's Turn

For Nick Punto Day, I thought I'd revisit Punto's history a little bit. Within a month of playing under Ron Gardenhire, we knew Nick Punto was destined for greatness. How? Because Ron Gardenhire said he was destined for greatness.

This was first published on TwinsGeek.com way back on March 16, 2004 during Punto's first spring training with the Twins.

---

Ron Gardenhire has a chance this year to learn a lesson from his predecessor. In order to do so, I think we all need to step back and take a deep breath concerning Nick Punto....

"Gardenhire said Nick Punto has the ability to be a starting shortstop.

'I've seen this kid enough to know he can play a little,' Gardenhire said. 'He's got skills.'"

- Star Tribune

[Punto] is an aggressive, excitable, peppery player who can cause all sorts of commotion.

- Tom Powers in the Pioneer Press

Over the last few day, it hasn't been a Twins update if it doesn't mention Nick Punto in it at least once. Nick Punto could be a starting shortstop. Nick Punto could play some center field. Nick Punto will motivate Cristian Guzman. Nick Punto WILL play center field this week. Enough already.

Nick Punto is a utility infielder, and that might be optimistic. "Futility" infielder is probably more accurate, because for all his feisty, peppery play, he hasn't shown he can hit in the majors. Or even above A ball:

The 111 at-bats last year in Scranton are the nearest he's looked to a major league regular, and the seven hits he has in spring training this year can't undo the last five years of full season baseball.

This isn't to say that Punto doesn't have his uses. He's supposedly a great fielder, and he'll bring some more speed to the team. He may also provide some roster flexibility, since the Twins can try him in center field. In fact, he seems to be the perfect compliment to Michael Cuddyer in that he could play all the positions Cuddyer can't and his speed compliments Cuddyer's power. He's also a switch hitter, which makes him more valuable on the bench, and his feistiness might well be an attribute.

Hold it. Where have we heard this before? A feisty, switch hitting infielder who is solid defensively. Wanna see something eerie?Denny Hocking was a year older and performed slightly better in his first year at AAA, but the resemblance is spooky. And if a comparison to Hocking runs chills up and down your spine, you're not alone. But it's important to remember that Hocking was also a useful player, in much the same way that Punto is. What caused Twins Geeks to wince every time his name was announced was how much he played.

From 1999 through 2001, Hocking had 1086 at-bats, which is nearly twice as many as a utility infielder (who can't hit much) should get. That's not Hocking's fault - that's Tom Kelly's fault for falling in love with Hocking's feistiness and flexibility.

"He brings electricity, he is a gamer, he's able to play every day and do the job, he can absolutely fly, and he has a cannon for an arm. I've seen enough of this kid to know that he is pretty good."

- Ron Gardenhire

Uh-oh. Uh Ron, there's another quote I'd like to acquaint you with:

"Those who do not understand the past are destined to repeat it."

- George Santayana

---

If you're posting anything about Nick Punto for Nick Punto Day, make sure to send out a tweet about it with a link and the hashtag #NickPuntoDay. Then it should display over on the right. Have fun exploring what all the other bloggers are saying. We'll see you back here on Monday.

Nick Punto Day is TOMORROW!

Don't forget, tomorrow is Nick Punto Day. It's your job to write about Nick Punto. It's our job to read it.

Andrew Kneeland, whose brainchild this is, is adding a widget to his site at http://twinstarget.com/ which will show all the entries. All you need to do to add yours is tweet about it (with a link of course) and use the hashtag of #NickPuntoDay and it will be picked up. (If I can get the same widget, I'll add it here as well.)

I'm really looking forward to what people can come up with. Have fun!

Maple Street Press Twins 2010 Annual

I'm about to make a mistake that I've made on this site roughly 965 times - and that isn't an exaggeration.

The nature of blogging as a second occupation is that you're forced to a lot of writing on the fly. You don't have time to research as much as you would like. You find yourself cutting entries short so you can get some sleep. And you really don't take the time to let a story marinate in it's own juices. You just crank it out and live with the imperfections.

And that's the mistake.

This story should marinate, because I really hope I refer to it several dozen times over the next month or so. And because the people involved, who I greatly respect, deserve that time for me to get things just right.

They're not going to get it. Here we go.....

Right about now, if you find yourself in this god-forsaken icebox of a state, a little spring would be a nice thing. I find myself watching the shadows on the snow, convincing myself that they're getting shorter every day, and that it's getting lighter.

Today, I got a box of spring. It had several issue of Maple Street Press Twins 2010 Annual. Anything baseballish in February is reason enough to get excited, but I'm especially excited about this because the 128 pages of content were provided by TwinsCentric and various independent baseball writers here in the Twin Cities. Just so you know what you're getting into, here's the stories you'll be able to find:

The Team Section

• Player Profiles by TwinsCentric - Each page and player has so much information, your eyes will bleed. And they ain't sugar-coated.
  
• A Division for the Taking by TwinsCentric - A candid and irreverent review of all the teams we've learned to hate in the AL Central.
  
• On the Defensive by Phil Mackey - The Twins defense is analyzed and Mackey concludes that it has slipped considerably over the last couple of years.
  
• Talkin Twins with Gardy by Darren Wolfson - A six-page interview with manager Ron Gardenhire about 2009 and the offseason.
• No Regrets by Phil Miller - Miller was the Pioneer Press beat reporter during the Johan Santana trade scramble, and he recalls the pressures that were applied and the decisions that were made.
• Spanning the Outfield by Alex Halsted - Denard Span talks candidly about the disappointment he felt at the beginning of the 2009 season and how Twins players mentor each other.
• The "Little Things" by Adam V. Peterson - Does the Twins reputation for playing fundamental baseball translate into more wins?
• The Travails of an Aging Right Fielder by Dan Wade - Michael Cuddyer had a huge year in 2009, but what does that mean for his future with the Twins?
• No Money, No Problem by Andrew Kneeland - Kneeland looks behind the scenes at how a "small-market" team can remain competitive.
• Power Surge by Nick Nelson - Nelson looks at the breakthrough years by Jason Kubel and Joe Mauer.
• An Industry Leader by Parker Hageman - Hageman looks at the ups and down that Joe Nathan experience in 2009 and what it means for 2010.
• Retrospect 2001 by Seth Stohs - Stohs revisits the decision to draft Mauer over Mark Prior and how it played out.

Stadium Section

• Built for Baseball by Howard Sinker - Complete with gorgeous pictures, Sinker looks at Target Field
• Between a Rock and a Home Plate by Judd Spicer - Everything you ever want to know about the Minnesota-quarried rock that adorns the new ballpark.
• Magic and Money by John Bonnes - Thirteen small-market teams have opened new stadiums in the last 20 years. I look at how they spent their new-found booty.

Minor League Section

• Strength in Numbers by Seth Stohs - Stohs gives a comprehensive look at the depth in the minors, position by position.
• An International Focus by Josh Johnson - The Twins organization broke through in their signing of international prospects last year.
• Class of 2009 Primer by Seth Stohs - Stohs reviews the Twins 2009 draft, pick by pick and talks about their future.

History Section

• A Long History by Stew Thornley - Thornley reviews Minnesota baseball history before the arrival of the Twins, and how the Twins time in Minnesota began.
• Popping Champagne - and Each Other by Jim Thielman - The feisty Twins of the late 60s may be best understood from the vantage point of manager Billy Martin's fight with his own starting pitcher.
• A Common Vision by Arne Christensen - An interview with Mike Pagliarulo touches on the spirit of the 1991 World Series Champs.

In the letter from the editor I wrote:

"The Twins sport a population of independent baseball writers that other fan bases envy for the quality and passion."

I think you'll see that in the Annual, and that the community can support something this ambitious. I'm proud of that, and I think anyone who supports these writers can be too.

You can learn more about the Annual (and order it) here. Or look for it on newstands and magazine racks throughout Twins territory. I hope it brings you a little bit of spring.

The Return of Frenchy

I have a good friend who has referred to Jacque Jones as "Frenchy" for his entire baseball career. That's one of the reasons I smiled when I heard the Twins signed Jones yesterday to a minor-league contract. But it's not the only reason.

For starters, I just like bringing back one of those Twins from the Tom Kelly era. And I like Jones considerably more than, say, Rich Becker.

Another reason is that way back in the day I used to harp annually about how Jones should be shopped around as a center fielder. Remember, he was a center fielder in his first few years with the Twins. He wasn't bumped because he couldn't play there, or because his defense was poor. He was bumped because the Twins had Torii Hunter.

In my mind, the Twins consistently failed to leverage Jones' value as a center fielder in a trade. He was used as an average corner outfielder, but would have been well-above average offensively as a center fielder. That should have had real value for some other aggressive front office. Jones could have been Franklin Gutierrez, without the extreme defensive chops.

It sounds like the Twins will be seeing if he can still play there, judging by the timing of the announcement. Yesterday we also found out that the Twins had lost Jason Pridie on waivers. They had to put Pridie on waivers to drop him from the 40-man roster in order to make space for recent signee Orlando Hudson.

There was a fair amount of debate locally on who would be dropped from the 40-man roster for Hudson, but I never saw anyone suggest it might be Pridie. After all, he was the only real option to back up Denard Span in center field heading into spring training. Now that designation seemingly falls on Jones shoulders.

Is another move coming to get a "true" center fielder, ala Endy Chavez or Wily Tavarez? No, probably not. If the Twins sign a 5th outfielder to a major league contract they have the same problem now that they had with Hudson - they need to find a spot on the 40-man roster. Their moves indicate they are now limited to offering minor-league contracts, like they did with Jacque Jones.

Which means if I'm the agent with a defensively-gifted minor league center fielder, I'm calling Bill Smith TODAY about a minor-league deal for my guy. Maybe Jones can handle center field. After all, he posted above average defense in center field for the Cubs as recently as 2007. But if Jacque can't, there aren't a lot of other options for the Twins.

Span needs a backup. And with Delmon Young in left field, Jason Kubel likely to get a fair amount of starts in one of the corners, and Cuddyer's shaky range last year there could be PLENTY of reasons for a defensive substitute late in games. On an otherwise loaded Twins roster, there is still a very real need there.

That might be best-handled with an offensively challenged rangy centerfielder, who are supposedly a dime-a-dozen in the minors. We'll see if an older ex-Twins can still handle it. And whether my friend is again ready to kvetch about Frenchy.

The Long Road to Hudson

I'm supposed to be writing about Orlando Hudson on this blog today, given reports that he's all but signed with the Twins. But what do you write about a guy who you've covered from just about every angle over the last few months?

The answer, of course, is that you write about how much you've been writing about him. This has extra benefits in that:

a) it's basically phoning in a story and
b) I get to remember stories I had completely forgotten about.

So let's go back a little over a year and see where this path started....

October 1st, 2008 - In the Minnesota Twins GM Cheat Sheet, I pointed out that Orlando Hudson was the top second baseman on the market. Remember, this was last year. It says something about how deep this year's second base free agency class was that last year Hudson was clearly the top guy available and this year he's middle of the pack.

You can see why he held out for more money this year. He really did get screwed over last year when he didn't take arbitration from the Diamondbacks. I estimated he would make $44 million over four years in that story. Instead, if this is a $5 million deal he'll make $13 million over two of those years instead. I know I'd be a little bitter.

October 21st, 2008 - Three weeks later in Procrastinatory Notes I cited Hudson as an example of how difficult it was going to be to get any kind of upgrade in the infield. Eventually the Twins settled for Joe Crede.

July 19th, 2009 - The Twins signed Mark Grudzielanek a couple of weeks before the trade deadline, and I wrote about it in The Grudzielanek Twist. Hudson was mentioned as an example of how difficult it was for second basemen to get a job last offseason.

October 27th, 2009 - At the beginning of this offseason I acknowledged my Polanco Crush. I reprinted my excerpt from the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook where I mentioned Hudson as one of a handful or desirable options the Twins could pick up for second base.

November 5th, 2009 - A week later, I mourned the loss of Akinori Iwamura (who I still believe the Twins almost traded for. But I pointed out to the Geek Chorus in Silver Linings that there were lots of better options freely available, including Hudson.

November 10th, 2009 - While many folks were writing off Hudson as unavailable because he was going to be a Type A free agent, I talked about pendulums and suggested he could still be an option because he should not be offered arbitration.

November 12th, 2009 - In a longer story about the other Orlando, I noted at the end that it was looking increasingly unlikely that the Dodgers would offer arbitration to Hudson.

December 23rd, 2009 - Twins fans were tired of waiting for a move to be made, and so I compared the offseason to an ebay auction. I stated that the only way the Twins were going to end up with Hudson at that time was to overpay for him, and that the Twins were playing this the right way.

January 12th, 2010 - Two weeks later, as the free agent field narrowed, we started Watching Washington, who was making overtures to Hudson and Adam Kennedy. I also started to worry that this was going to be a wasted opportunity.

January 27th, 2010 - Two weeks later I was plenty worried. So I locked and loaded a story outline if the Twins came up empty at second base.

January 28th, 2010 - And the next day, I Touched Base with Second Base, reexamining Hudson and Felipe Lopez, and added Orlando Cabrera to the list of acceptable options. I noted that neither Hudson or Lopez were perfect players, but either was close to a perfect fit for the Twins.

Which takes us to today. Hopefully the long road to Hudson will finally be complete, and he'll end up being worth the journey.

The Ten-Year Solution

Ten years? Ten? Ala ARod? Gulp.

There have been rumors of a 10-year contract with Joe Mauer for weeks now, and it gained steam recently with Mark Rosen's report that a 10-year framework was in place.

Ten years is tough to swallow for anyone but the blindest fans. I'll admit, at first that number caught me off guard to the point where I was ready to write about it being irresponsible. And there is plenty of internet and radio chatter about whether the Twins can commit that long of a contract to a catcher. After a little examination, I've found two points that temper my concerns:

1) Mauer would likely get that long of a contract on the open market anyways, and probably for more money. Or at least he would if the Yankees were involved.

Over the previous two offseasons, the Yankees signed:

• a 28-year-old (Mark Teixeira) to a 9-year deal worth $22.5M per year and



• a 32-year-old (Alex Rodriguez) to a 10-year deal worth $27.5M per year

Mauer would be just 27 years old and certainly in that class of players. Plus, think about the environment those deals were made in. Mauer is likely to be even more coveted by other teams (like the Red Sox or Mets) than Teixeira was, given that he plays catcher. And the Yankees gave that contract to ARod without there being any chatter of any other competing teams.

Would a 10-year deal for $250 million be out of the question? Probably not. And if the expectations of a $20 million per year deal are accurate, it would look like a bargain.

The easy rebuttal is that he's a catcher, and catchers break down. You can give those deals to non-catchers, but not to catchers. Which brings us to the next point...

2) Even if he moves from catcher, Mauer's bat plays anywhere.

Does moving him from catcher decrease his value? Absolutely. But if he needs to move to any position other than first base or designated hitter, he's still not a payroll drain. For instance, if he moves to second base ala Craig Biggio, he's basically Chase Utley. If he moves to third, he's a step below Rodriguez.

And he's enough of an athlete that he should be able to move to those spots. He's not your prototypical paunchy catcher. You're talking about a guy that turned down the quaterback job at Florida State to sign with the Twins. He won't play centerfield or shortstop, but that's about where the limitations end.

So the 10-year deal, while a little shocking, isn't crazy. In fact, I suspect his side will want opt-out clauses lest the recession ends and payrolls go crazy. For the Twins, it's certainly a risk. But rarely do winners win without taking a risk.

So gulp hard and press on.

From the Handbook: Joe Crede

In last night's Seth Speaks podcast, I was asked if I thought Joe Crede might return to the Twins. By way of an answer, I'm pulling this piece I wrote for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, addressed to the Twins General Manager. I hope you like it.

-------------------------

Call it the Luis Rivas syndrome.

For years, the Twins and Twins fans lamented the lack of development of Rivas, who started at second base for the Twins for five years, posting a career OPS of 681. Yet despite the perennial disappointment, he always returned for a simple reason: he never became good enough to get expensive.

I wonder if we might need to rename the syndrome this offseason.

Prior to the All-Star break, if anyone would’ve told me that this organization would have any chance to re-sign Joe Crede, I would’ve politely questioned their sanity. Crede had performed too well with 14 home runs and Gold Glove defense. He was positioned to draw a multi-year deal from someone, and the Twins weren’t going to make a multi-year commitment when they had prospect third baseman Danny Valencia working his way through the minors.

Three dismal months later, Crede suddenly makes more sense, because he never became good enough to get expensive. He spent a good chunk of the last three months injured (only 81 at-bats) so it seems unlikely he’ll earn a multi-year deal. (That dismal showing also means he won’t be ranked highly by Elias, eliminating the need to offer him arbitration.)

On the Twins side, there is still a need. Valencia wasn’t called up in September, so it’s unlikely everyone in the organization feels he’s the answer for Opening Day. And if someone keeps the position warm for half a year, Valencia won’t qualify for Super-2 status down the road. Plus, Crede’s key assets still remain – he’s a righthanded power hitter who plays fantastic defense at third base. That’s a better fit than most free agent third basemen.

And the injuries? Well, the team won’t be playing on the turf next year, which makes Crede more appealing. Also, the Twins were more patient than they probably should have been with Crede’s nagging injuries, which likely earned some points with Crede and agent Scott Boras. And if Crede breaks down over the second half of the season, you can turn to Valencia who should be a little closer to ready. On the other hand, he’s undergoing his third back surgery this year. Maybe you just want to move on.

Either way, there’s bad news here. You’re managing a team that wouldn’t even think about signing a guy who had a 750 OPS at the all-star break. However, once he posted a 558 OPS while playing in just 22 games afterwards – now he’s looking like a good fit. How depressing is that?

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2M plus incentives

Twinsfest (Day 2) and Nick Punto Day (really!)

The internet is crawling with exciting reports about the Twins becoming a serious player for Orlando Hudson and an agreed 10-year framework for Joe Mauer's new contract. So let's talk about...my second day at Twinsfest?

Yep. Really, I have to, partly because I didn't get to the Nick Punto Day thing, and partly because I want to give some shouts out to some folks I met.

• I met Seth Stohs at Twinsfest, complete with his SethSpeaks.net baseball hat. I gotta admit, that hat is brilliant. It gives readers a chance to easily identify him and we had several long and fun conversations with folks who simply wanted to talk about offseason moves or prospects.
  
  You probably already know this if you listen to his podcast, but he's about the nicest guy ever. If you ever see him, I encourage you to introduce yourself and talk Twins with him. I promise, it won't be awkward.


• Speaking of awkward, I also met Topper Anton of the Twins blog Curve for a Strike. In the course of getting to know each other, he revealed that he attended Jefferson High School in Bloomington, from which I also graduated. Which led to this conversation:
  
  Me: Really? Cool. We probably had some of the same teachers. I graduated in 1985.
  
  Topper: I was born in 1985.
  
  And that's when I punched Topper in the face. Which was awkward.
  
  (No, I didn't. Because he's 18 years younger than me and could probably kick my butt.)


• The three of us headed over to the Star-Tribune booth to meet Howard Sinker who we knew was going to be there from 12:00 to 1:00. It was great talking about the offseason and the plans for the StarTribune.com's new Twins page, which I'm very excited to see. I also met his fiance, who looks way too familiar, but I can't place.
  


• Also at the Star-Tribune booth was Kirsten Brown of K-Bro's Baseball Blog and her mom. We had a nice conversation about having a Nick Punto Day, which is something in which I'm hoping every Twins blogger can participate. It was proposed by blogger Andrew Kneeland of Twins Target on Twitter a few days ago, and I fully support the idea. His followup email explains it well:
  
  Nick Punto could quite possibly be the most controversial figure on the Minnesota Twins. Some hate him, a few love him, and even more think he is a decent utility infielder.
  
  I thought it would be a good idea to hold a Nick Punto Day among Twins' bloggers. On Feb. 12 (two weeks from now) post your Nick Punto thoughts on your blog, and we will get a chance to see how this incredible blogging community feels about Nick Punto. (In the future we can hold these events for other players, but for now, the focus is on Little Nicky Punto!)
  
  Where do you stand? How do you view the player who Gardy seems to be obsessed with? What is the ideal position for Punto? Feel free to go any number of ways with this topic, but please keep the focus on Punto.
  
  I am going to LOVE seeing what the wide independent audience of Twins bloggers comes up with for this. Praise? Rants? Analysis? History? Whimsy? I can hardly wait.
  
  Which brings up another good question: how can we find all the entries? I think we need a central place where people who are creating Nick Punto entries can post links so we can all find them. Otherwise, this should be an opportunity for the less-known bloggers to show what they can do alongside some of the more read blogs, don't you think?
  
  So I'm open to ideas. Here's the thing: it can't involve me fielding a bunch of emails and posting a bunch of links. Is there a way an RSS feed could be setup that we could all post to and then include on our sidebars for one day? Or someone want to set up a NickPuntoDay.com site that we can all email links to? Post your ideas/thoughts in the comments section or email me.
  
  
• Also at the Star-Tribune booth I spoke with Joe Christensen for several minutes about the offseason and internet publishing. He is a kind and very genuine guy.


• And I finished off the time at Twinsfest by wolfing down some lunch while speaking with Fanatic Jack who is a lot less tense than you might expect from listening to his podcast. We had a pleasant debate about several of the Twins offseason moves and priorities over a Turkey sandwich.

And then I left before my car got a ticket. I'll mimic that now, bolting from this entry earlier than I'd like. I hope to be back tomorrow with some real news to talk about. Until then, plan your Nick Punto Day entry!

Twinsfest and Nick Punto Day!

I promised several tweet from Twinsfest - and then totally failed to make any. Sorry gang. The simple fact is that I was almost always with people at Twinsfest, and I haven't mastered the younger generation's skill of texting on my phone while not appearing (or at least feeling) rude. So instead, let's just have a bullet list entry with notes from Twinsfest.

• I started with a highlight - a couple of hot dogs with sauerkraut and mustard. I swear to gawd, I would go to Twinsfest annually just to have a couple of hot dogs. Since it was Friday night, I washed it down with tap Summit and the whole kit-n-caboodle cost me just $7.50. Turns out that the hot dogs were 2-for-1 and tap Summit was $3.50 less than any bottled beer. It also turns out that caboodle is spelled with a "c" according to blogger.com. Who knew?


• Before the event we went to Dan Kelly's for a beer and after it we went to Maxwell's. Those two are my two favorite pre/post game bars, and I'm wondering how soon I will find a regular place nearer Target Field.


• We tried to win the free season tickets from the KSTP booth, but would have been more than satisfied with a free pint glass. We were shut out. I'm really disappointed with myself for not trying to negotiate the free pint glass. That's just bad driving.


• Speaking of bad driving, we talked with the folks at the Target Field display about their food options. It started as a very pleasant conversation. I'm excited about the options there, and they were receptive to our lobbying for Surly to be included in the available beers. Of course, we also pointedly argued that they couldn't claim to have Minnesota food fare and not have anything with Spam.
  
  OK, we likely didn't help our credibility much with that last point.
  
  But the really disappointing part of that conversation was the revelation that the Murray's Steak Sandwiches that are going to be served at Target Field are not the same as the ones they currently serve in the bar at Murray's. They're coming up with something new, instead. In fact, they haven't even determined what it is going to be.
  
  (These sandwiches, as you know if you know me, are ambrosia. Char-grilled, oh-so-tender, pink-fibered ambrosia, cut into tiny chunks and covered with cheese and bacon. I would walk over hot coals for that thing. They only serve it at lunch and they only serve it in the bar. There. Now you have lunch plans today.)
  
  Worse, once they create this new...this new... I'm going to go with "monstrosity"..., they're going to replace the sandwich they currently have with it. It's the worst possible situation.


• My pint glass remorse was lightened at the bargain merchandise table. I got a kinda neat orange Twins spring training hat for $2, and then we talked the guy down on a button-up Twins shirt for $10. The hat has quickly become on of my favorites. And though it's a good hat, I'll fully admit it's reached that status mostly because it was just $2. They didn't have pint glasses.


• Please, gawd, don't let them shave the steak for those sandwiches. It HAS to be bite-sized chunks of beef. If they try to create a Philly Cheesesteak, which they will inevitably butcher, and ALSO screw up my steak sandwich, I'm going to be inconsolable.


• I paid considerably more than $2 at our next stop, which was a booth where they were selling the coffee table book The Twins at the Met by Bob Showlers. I had a great talk with Bob about putting the book together, and it was probably the highlight of the night.
  
  The book started as a bunch of pictures from The Met of players, coaches, press - everyone. Then he interviewed players, showing them the pictures and letting them spit out their memories. Taking a look at it today I came across a great passage that I have to share. It's in a section about Billy Martin and the person remembering is Charley Walters, who you may know as a Pioneer Press columnist but who was also a pitcher for the Twins in 1969, the year Martin managed.
  
  "In 1969, we started the season 0-4. We're in Anaheim for a series against the Angels and I'm sound asleep in my hotel room when the phone rings at 3:30 am. It's Ted Uhlander, and he says "We've got an unbelievable party going on. You've got to come down to room 203." I could hear women and music and laughter in the background. I was 22 years old and single at the time, but there was no way I was going down to that party. It was the middle of the night, we've just lost our first four games and I wasn't going to do anything that might get me sent to the minors. I told Ted I wasn't coming down and he tells me to hang on because someone wants to talk to me. Another guy gets on the phone and says "Hey Big Shooter, this is Billy. You've got five minutes to get your ass down here. It was Billy Martin, our manager. I said, "I'll be right down."
  
  I'm excited about this book. I wish I would've had it earlier. By the way, if you want some more stories on Billy Martin and that 1969 season, be sure to pre-order the new Twins Annual by Maple Street Press which TwinsCentric put together (and I edited). It has a fantastic story by Jim Thielman about the 1969 Twins focusing on the Billy Martin-Dave Boswell fight. I can't think of a better thing to have handy when listening to those spring training games.
  


• If you want to sell something from Murray's, how about the garlic toast they have in the bar? Offer me a sleeve of those things for $5 and the popcorn guy will go out of business.


• I later had a talk with Nick Vetter, the owner of Low and Inside, a printing company which specializes in printing baseball merchandise and publishing. He shared that he has been going to the opening game of each brand new ballpark since sometime in the 90s. Needless to say he's pretty excited about being able to finally go to one for his hometown team. I love that idea.


• It's hopeless, isn't it? It's going to go the way of my lamb sirloin with that tasty dipping sauce they had at Palomino in the 09's. I hate change.


• And I finished Friday night with a long conversation with Minnesota Score magazine about publishing sports magazines, getting advertising and where one can distribute the issues. I stopped by their web site and found out that David Zingler, who used to write for MPR's baseball blog, is writing there, which is a nice surprise.

And that's it for Friday night. I'd like to tell you about Saturday which was probably a lot more relevant to a Twins blog, but I'm out of time for tonight. For that matter, it's also when we talked about Nick Punto Day, which is part of the title of this post, but still, it's going to have to wait. I'll check in tomorrow with the rest, and likely another half dozen Murray's steak sandwich rants.

Touching Base with Second Base

There are six names below, four of whom are gone, leaving....three?

Second Base - The market for second basemen is so thick you can take your pick. I'm budgeting up to $7 million for Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Mark DeRosa, Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez. Heck, I'll even jump on Akinori Iwamura if his option isn't picked up. I'm not that concerned about which one, and I'm not hesitant to offer a multi-year deal. In fact, I'd love to not worry about that spot for the next few years. Sorry Alexi. You're on my bench for now.

That's from my blueprint in the TwinsCentric GM Handbook, and it looks like that $7 million budget was more than enough to nab most of these guys:

• Iwamura was traded to someone else though it looks like the Twins were poised to get him, and he'll be paid just $4.25M this year.
• Sanchez stayed with the Giants when both sides agree to $12 million over 2 years.
• Polanco signed with the Phillies for 3 years and $18 million, but that was to play third base
• DeRosa also signed with the Giants, presumably to play third base, for $12 million over 2 years.

That leaves two guys and the sentiment above still applies - I'm not that concerned about which one. That doesn't mean they're the same guy.

Orlando Hudson is perceived as being the safer bet because he's been so consistent. For instance, here are his on-base percentage of the last 4 years (the league average is about .340): .357, .367, 376, .354. He's also won a Gold Gloves at second base in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009. That's the kind of consistency that edges a player over the other mediocre free agents. By most accounts that's where Hudson is right now: considering offers, making a choice, and setting the market for several remaining free agents.

The biggest concern about Hudson, a late-season benching, is likely overblown. He was benched at the end of last season in favor of Ronnie Belliard, who the Dodgers had acquired in a last second trade. The story was spun that Hudson was benched because L.A. didn't want to pay him various plate appearance incentives in his contract, but Hudson reached all those incentives anyway. It's more likely that he was benched because Belliard was white-hot (he posted a 1.034 OPS with L.A.) and Hudson was brutal (batting just .227 after August 31st).

The concern shouldn't be whether Hudson had a bad year. He didn't. He posted respectable numbers, made more respectable because Dodger Stadium depresses hitting statistics. The concern should be about why Hudson was brutal at the end of the season. It looks like he was hurt, missing time with a strained groin a couple of seeks before Belliard was acquired. Injuries have nagged at Hudson throughout his career. And now he's 33 years old, and second basemen lose their legs quickly, and the defensive metrics say that his reputation is higher than it should be at this age.

That doesn't mean he's done. It just means that even with all that consistency there is some risk too.

Felipe Lopez, in some ways, is exactly the opposite. Once upon a time he was a potential star, even hitting 23 home run as a shortstop for the Reds as recently as 2005. Then he was traded to Washington where he struggled for years. As soon as he left that team he was seemingly reborn putting up positive offensive numbers for the last two years, even exceeding Hudson last year.

The promise of being a power-speed combo shortstop is long gone, but Lopez has settled into a second baseman who hits a half dozen home runs and steals a half dozen bases but whose ability to get on base varies from year to year. Defensively, he's hard to judge. We know he was a bad shortstop, but he seems to be at least passable at second base. Metrics like UZR don't help much since they've been wildly inconsistent. But last year they were very positive, far outpacing Hudson, though he has nowhere near the defensive reputation of Hudson.

You lose the consistency with Lopez, but he's on a 2-and-a-half year upswing. He's also two-and-a-half years younger than Hudson, meaning you could sign him for a two-year contract and when he finished it he would still be younger than Hudson is right now.

Neither of these guys are all-stars. Neither of these guys are without risk. You could even argue that given their middling offensive production, neither is that appealing unless you are a team desparately needs a right-handed hitting, good-fielding second baseman that can get on base a lot. Which, of course, the Twins are.

And now we're hearing a third name, one which Twins fans are more familiar with. A few months ago I wrote that there was zero chance Orlando Cabrera returned to the Twins to play second base. I was wrong. Major League Baseball has collectively decided that Cabrera is no longer a shortstop, and he and his agent have switched their focus to second base.

(As an aside, trading for JJ Hardy might go down as one of the best offseason moves by any GM of any team. The free agent shortstop market was every bit as brutal as it looked to be, and worse in fact. After Marco Scutaro, the top signing shortstop was....John McDonald who re-signed with the Blue Jays for two years and three million dollars. We might end up talking about that Hardy trade the way we talk about the Shannon Stewart-Bobby Kielty trade.)

Cabrera is right-handed, but he's older (35) than these guys. He's worse and getting on base (.313 last year). He hasn't played more than three innings since 1998. There is no way I can rank him at the same level as Hudson or Lopez.

But we need to recognize that statisticians don't have the market cornered on what wins ball games. Cabrera has now appeared in five postseasons over the last six years, consistently finding himself on successful teams, and to me that counts for something. He also had a significant impact on the Twins playoff run last year, both anecdotally and statistically.

So he's making my list of guys I'll be thrilled to see added to this team. And more than a little bitter if they don't.

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Twins Takes

• First, a reminder - you can follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/twinsgeek. And I say that because I hope to tweet from TwinsFest this weekend. I'm afraid I don't know exactly when I'm going, but I'll tweet when I'm there.

• Last night was the deciding game nine for the Dominican Winter League Championship. And taking the hill for the winning team was our own Francisco Liriano. He's been putting up ridiculous stats this winter. And every time we want to talk about them, we feel obliged to point out that this is just winter league, and the success might not translate, blah, blah, blah.
  
  No more. I got to watch last night's start on ESPN 360 and let me tell you - it's gonna translate. People have been talking about his velocity and how it's come back, but we hear that all the time. What was really eye-opening was his slider. It was ridiculous, absolutely unhittable. I couldn't believe the break it was getting. It wasn't just good. It was...
  
  It was 2006. Like when I would sit in the dome, and he would come in for relief, and you would watch a batter that didn't have a chance, and then turn to a total stranger a row away and both be just shaking your heads with these $hit-eating grins on your face. It was like that.
  
  I'll say it - my expectations are sky-high for him this year. I'm more of a "show me" guy when it comes to prospects and winter leagues, but Liriano showed me tonight. Don't tell me about the competition there. It wouldn't have mattered if he was facing AA ballplayers or the Yankees. Nobody was going to do much with those pitches.
  


• There have been some rumors going around that maybe a deal for Joe Mauer could get done soon. Just so we set expectations a little, I thought it might be a good idea to see what the top free agent hitters were paid over the last four offseasons.
  
  This year - Matt Holliday - 7 years, $17+ million per year
  Last year - Mark Teixera - 8 years, $22.5 millin per year
  2 years ago - Alex Rodgiguez - 10 years, $27.5 million per year
  2 years ago - Torii Hunter - 5 years, $18 million per year
  3 years ago - Alfonso Soriano - 8 years, $17 million per year
  
  So where would you rank Mauer in that list? He's younger than any of them, so he could get as long a deal as anyone. He certainly outranks the guys who didn't clear $20 million per year. But it's probably not feasible for the Twins to pay him as much as the Yankees paid their free agents.
  
  It sounds to me like a nine or ten year deal is feasible, and it would average at least $20 million per year. That's probably the minimum of what he's worth.
  
  The next question is "How much is too much?" But I don't think I want to think about that just yet.
  

Locked and Loaded

"The Nationals and Rays both are pursuing [Orlando] Hudson, but his negotiations remain fluid, major-league sources say. At least one, unidentified team might still be in the mix. That team could be the Twins, who are known to have interest in Hudson, major-league sources say."

— Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports

Don't you toy with me Fox Sports. Don't you DARE toy with me.

As I drove into work today, I outlined the plan of attack tonight's blog post would take:

1. Intro (write last)

2. A few paragraphs on how bad the Twins second base options were last year
2.1 Overall Stats
2.2 Production compared to the rest of the league
2.3 Defensive putridity (I'm coining that phrase)

3. Two paragraphs on how terrible the #2 hitters were

4. Several paragraphs pointing out the low-hanging fruit available on the 2B free agent market
4.1. go through the candidates
4.2. compare it to how terrible the free agent crop has been in previous years
4.3. what has happened to those guys, and how much have they signed for
4.4. who is left

5. Stories that are scaring me
5.1. Lavelle saying Twins don't like Felipe Lopez' defense
5.2. Hudson and the Nationals
5.3. Lavelle saying Twins don't want to commit to multiple years

6. Examine fear of long-term contract
6.1. talk about how hopeless the future looked at second base in the minors
6.2. point out that the Twins will likely be in exactly the same boat next season
6.3. review age of candidates?
6.4. talk about the joy of signing a multi-year deal when market is down

7. Finish with how dismal production has been from that spot for the entire decade

8. Recap
8.1. faced with an dismal need, not just for this last year but for the previous ten years and for probably a half dozen in the future, and
8.2. given a FA market of overflowing available 2B talent who also just happened to be a fit for the #2 spot in the lineup...
8.3. The Twins did nothing

9. Vicious, biting conclusion. (then back to the intro and finally the title.)

So that's the plan. It's not hard - it really does write itself.

But I'm tired, I have a chess club to organize, I promised my kids I'd watch a movie with them tonight, and best of all Ken and Jon Paul at Fox Sports bought me at least a slight reprieve.

But it's good to be ready....

Ruining the Thome Signing with a Bunch of Math

There's going to be a lot of discussion about Jim Thome's potential value to the Twins in 2010 - how he can platoon with Delmon Young, rest Justin Morneau occasionally, be a presence in the clubhouse and provide a nice late-inning option for manager Ron Gardenhire. Just scroll down those blogs over there on the lower right, and you'll get plenty of solid analysis on all these aspects.

But I want to concentrate on just how valuable a bench bat is when used in late-inning situations? I've wondered about this since 2002 and 2003 when that role was often filled by Bobby Kielty. I remember writing about a quote from Ron Gardenhire stating that he thought Kielty was more valuable as a bench option than an everyday player, because that one 9th inning at-bat could be in a more valuable spot.

That's the kind of statement that makes disciples of advanced metrics like WAR throw up in their mouth a little bit. But it's also the kind of statement that makes disciples of advanced metrics like WPA applaud. Because it is undoubtedly true that a late inning at-bat can be much more valuable than an early inning at-bat. What isn't clear is how much more valuable, and whether it really makes sense to reserve a player for just those situations.

So with Thome joining the club, I crunched a few numbers for your digestion and comments. Let's start with a scenario. Imagine a player on the home team leading off an inning with a home run. How much does that home run really help the ball club?

The answer depends on the score and the inning. And you can see it in the graph below:


That axis at the bottom is innings. So if you look at the dark blue line (which represents when the home team trails by a run), it shows that if the home run leads off the first inning, it improves the teams chances to win by just over 10%. But if it happens in the ninth inning (where it ties the game), it improves the team's chance to win by over 45%. Think about that: the same hit, in the same situation but in a later inning, is four times more valuable in the ninth inning than in the first inning.

The temptation for people studying players is to write this finding off. After all, there's plenty of evidence that players aren't clutch. Thome can't choose to hit that home run late in the game as opposed to when it has less value. So from a player's perspective, when trying to determine their overall value, we focus on the raw numbers and not when it happened.

But we aren't really studying the player in this case - we're studying the manager. And the manager DOES get to make a choice. He gets to choose the best situation in which his bench players get to bat. Thome might not be more clutch in that position, but he's significantly more likely to hit a right-handed pitcher silly than Brendan Harris. If he hits a home run in that ninth inning of a one run game, it's more valuable than if he had hit a lead off home run in the first, third and fifth innings combined.

Of course, the chart also shows that it's significantly different if the game isn't a tie game or the home team isn't losing by just one run. If the home team is winning, putting that slugger in late innings to jack a ball into the right field bleachers doesn't add much, as the game is almost decided. That's fine - so keep in the defensive specialist. And if the home team is down by two runs, it's actually considerably more valuable to hit that lead off home run in the eighth inning than in the ninth, since it gives your team more time to come back.

So just how often do baseball games enter the ninth inning fairly close? Below you'll see some numbers for games between 1977 and 2006. I'm afraid I don't have percentages for you, but you can see close games are the most common occurrence, but not necessarily overwhelmingly so.



Finally, I should mention that I only charted the value increase of a specific outcome: a lead off home run. What if he struck out instead. I suspect that the difference isn't quite as pronounced with other outcomes, but the trend is similar. An out in the ninth inning of a one-run game is more important than an out in the second inning.

No matter what outcome you choose, in the late innings success counts more and failure hurts more. Either way, the manager wants to have a very good hitter available.

And now, he's got one.

Copying Cleveland

When the Cleveland Indians opened up Jacobs Field in 1994, they were in a bit of slump. Kind of like Delmon Young has been in a bit of slump - since 2006.

But believe it or not, the Indians' slump was worse, because it went back about 35 years. They hadn’t been to the playoffs since 1954. They had just six winning seasons since 1959. And since 1947 they had played in Cleveland Stadium, derisively referred to as The Mistake by The Lake.

That was about to all change. The opening of Jacob's Field corresponded with a surge of talent from the Indians farm system. The anticipated revenues from the new stadium led to a tripling of payroll from $8 million in 1992 to $28 million in 1994.

The popular story is that the Indians used that money to tie young, talented players to long-term deals and fuel their astounding success for the latter half of the decade. That's only half the story. They certainly had success. Their win rate improved +26 games(!) on average between the five years before The Jake opened and the five years after the Jake opened. And there's no question that they were able to reward and keep homegrown talent like Kenny Lofton, Charles Nagy, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Omar Vizquel and Manny Ramirez with the revenue from the new stadium.

But the other half of the story is that the Indians were aggressive regularly in the free agent market, starting the first year the park opened. That year they signed veteran Eddie Murray to be the designated hitter and pitcher Dennis Martinez received a top-25 contract to anchor the rotation. (It was during that contract that Martinez hit Kirby Puckett in the head with a pitch, ending his career.)

It wouldn't be the last time that decade that the Indians would use their new golden goose to acquire expensive talent from outside the organization:

• In 1998 they traded for third baseman Travis Fryman, who was just 28 years old and would finish his career with Cleveland.
• In 1999 they signed a 30-year-old Roberto Alomar to a five-year contract to play second base. He responded with three unbelievable seasons before being traded to the Mets to finish out the contract.
• In 2000 they paid pitcher Chuck Finley $28 million over the last three years of his career.
• In 2001 they signed Ellis Burks as a free agent and paid him over $18 million to DH for them over the next three years.

In each case, the Indians used their payroll to acquire a high-end player at a position of need and extend the organization's success from the late 90s. It worked. The Indians posted a .585 winning percentage from 94-2001, which translates to about 95 wins over a 162-game season. That included a 100-win season in 1995, six trips to the playoffs and two trips to the World Series.

The model for success had been built, and numerous MLB teams tried to copy it. But only half of the strategy was trumpeted by the baseball public. Yes, a strong farm system and long-term deals had established a base for the success. But Cleveland's management raised the level of their team from "good" to "elite" by spending money strategically on high-end players outside of the organization.

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The preceding is loosely based on a much (much, much) longer story I wrote for the Maple Street Press Minnesota Twins Annual, coming to a magazine rack near you in March. (Or you can pre-order it here.) The story is a comprehensive review of what other "small market" teams have done with their new found revenues as stadiums opened.


ONE LAST THING
Tuesday Night on Seth Speaks Podcast, he's going to have a special two-hour show featuring so many minor league Twins prospects that I can't name them all. Make sure and check it out.

On Sentences and Seattle

Rumors leaked out Tuesday that the Mariners were close to signing 23-year-old Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez to a five-year extension for $78 million. Predictably, there was much rejoicing. To Mariners fans, or even to sportswriters who don’t want to delve into this stuff too far, there are only two phrases from that sentence that they care about: “Cy Young runner-up” and “five-year extension.”

Maybe that’s the way it should be. After all, it’s not our money. And there is something to be said for getting the big rocks in place and letting the pebbles settle in around them.

But I was still surprised by the universal praise it from people who study this stuff. I probably shouldn’t be, because there seems to be some serious man-crushing towards Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik right now. Primarily because:

1) His team improved by 24 games in his first year as general manager.
2) The improvement came partially by improving the Mariners' defense, and nothing is sexier to the sabremetric bent than defense right now.
3) He ripped off the salary-dumping Phillies when acquiring left-handed stud pitcher Cliff Lee.

So, he’s revered. You know he’s revered because he threw $6 million into a trade for Milton Bradley - and was PRAISED for it.

For the record, I'm not drinking the Mariners kool-aid just yet. Some see the 2010 AL West Champions. I see a 3-4-5 lineup of, um, who exactly? Franklin Gutierrez (764 OPS last year)? Ken Griffey (.214 BA last year)? Milton Bradley (who might literally be the last guy in MLB that you want to depend on day in and day out)? So I might not see eye-to-eye with everyone else on the Mariners and, subsequently, Jack Z. Keep this in mind.

Anyway, I was still surprised that everyone viewed this as such a clear victory for the Mariners GM. To see why I was puzzled, you have to see the year-by-year breakdown of the contract. Here it is, reportedly:

$3.5 million signing bonus
$6.5 million in 2010
$10 million in 2011
$18.5 million in 2012
$19.5 million in 2013
$20M million in 2014.

See how the amount climbs so rapidly over the next three years and then levels off? There's a reason for that. It's because the Mariners had rights to Hernandez for the next two years and they only had to pay him what an arbitrator said he would be worth. And from looking at comparable players with the same amount of service time, they were going to need to pay him around $7.5 million in 2010 and around $12 million in 2011.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, after 2011 he would be a free agent, and then anyone could pay him whatever they wanted. And if he continued to throw like he did last year, he could have been paid a LOT of money. For instance, CC Sabathia makes $23 million/year. Johan Santana is averaging slightly less than that. That's the neighborhood that Hernandez could've been in.

So the Mariners basically had a choice. They could either...

1) Give him the contract they gave him - 5 years/$78 million or
2) Renew his contract for the next two years at approximately $20 million and then try to bring him back as a free agent.

Let's make it even simpler, though slightly less accurate. Hernandez's agent essentially offered the Mariners a 3-year contract for 2012, 2013 and 2014 for about $20 million per year - but they had to sign it now, two years ahead of time.

Does that represent a bargain? Sure. It saves them a few million dollars per year down the road. More importantly it keeps them from needing to sign him for much longer when he becomes a free agent.

But it also represents an incredible risk. If Hernandez slips at all from last year's Cy Young caliber performance, he's being overpaid. And if he's (knock, knock) hurt, as 23-year-old arms often are? Forget about it. It would makes the Eric Bedard circus look like a meditation class.

So why is a Twins Geek giving this so much thought? (Because he's a geek? And kind of sad, really?) Because the Twins face their own must-sign guy this offseason, Joe Mauer. If that gets done, I wonder if a Mariners Geek will wonder why the state of Minnesota is praising Bill Smith.

And I wonder if I'll be able to objectively evaluate that deal. Or even see beyond the phrases: "AL MVP winner" and "staying in Minnesota."

The Arbitration Awards

I'm not gonna lie - I'm probably a little too proud of this.

This fall, two days after the Twins were knocked out of the playoffs, TwinsCentric (myself, Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson and Parker Hageman) released the GM Offseason Handbook. The idea was to create a reference that fans could monitor the offseason moves just like the general manager of the Twins. So it included all the same kinds of info and decisions that a GM might need to make, such as a comprehensive list of free agents, trade targets and arbitration decisions.

And because our favorite team is so fiscally conscious, it had to include projected salaries, because the Twins work on a budget. To this day, we don't know what that budget is exactly, but we guessed it would be about $95 million in the Handbook and went through and gave prices to everyone. Which, as you might imagine, is a study in educated guesswork.

As the offseason has rolled along, I've been really happy to see how close we've come for various free agents. I fully intend to bore you with a comparison at the end of the free agency period to see how we did. But as the arbitration agreements for the Twins came in yesterday, I wondered how close we came for those. It seemed pretty close on most, so I ran the numbers tonight. Here they are:

	Actual	GM Handbook
Harrris	$1,450,000	$1,300,000
Pavano	$7,000,000	$6,500,000
JJ Hardy	$5,100,000	$5,500,000
Guerrier	$3,150,000	$2,800,000
D Young	$2,600,000	$2,000,000
Crain	$2,000,000	$2,000,000
Liriano	$1,600,000	$1,800,000
Neshek	$625,000	$750,000
TOTAL	$23,525,000	$22,650,000

We were less than a million dollars off as a group, and most of that difference was because we expected Pavano to sign a two-year deal instead of a one-year deal.

The one I feel the worst about was Delmon Young's, because I still can't figure out how he ends up getting $2.6 million given his track record. I've never totally understood his contract situation, seeing as he had such a big contract straight out of the draft. If someone wants to explain that to me, I'd love to hear it.

Which one do we feel best about? Well, we couldn't have done much better with Crain, especially after reading other predictions that he wouldn't be kept or he would make around $3 million next year.

So, the point is - I guess it is that attention to detail can pay off, even if it's in a nerdy, baseball-obsessed kinda way.

And most surprising? I'm mildly surprised would be that the Twins offered Brendan Harris a two-year deal. I really like Harris as a utility solution and bench player, but I'm not sure I totally get the logic here. The Twins seem to have other solutions for that role, like Matt Tolbert or even Alexi Casilla. You could argue those players have more upside, though maybe can't be counted to perform at as high a level. But why lock yourself into Harris next year too? It's not like he was going to get crazy expensive.

There were questions on Twitter about whether this might indicate that Harris would have a starting infield spot, meaning that the Twins would not sign a free agent second or third baseman. I don't see it - except for one thing. If Harris were to start in 2010 and play well, this contract limits what the Twins will need to pay him in 2011.

It's only mildly surprising because the Twins did the same thing a couple of years ago with Nick Punto. Ironically, this deal might crowd Punto off the roster when his contract expires at the end of this year. Especially if the Twins take advantage of the deep second baseman market.

It's not a terrible signing - Harris is a good bench addition and this is a good contract to lock that in. It's just puzzling. I'd love to here from the Twins why they thought this was necessary, or even savvy.

A Cautionary Tale and an Opportunity

Eric Byrnes looks like he could be both a cautionary tale and an opportunity for the Twins.

The outfielder was released by the Diamondbacks on Friday after playing with them for four years. It was a productive four years for Byrnes, less so for the Diamondbacks. Originally signed to a couple of reasonable one-year deals, Byrnes reached free agency immediately after a .286/.353/.460, 50 stolen base season for the NL West winning Diamondbacks. The popular player was rewarded with a 3-year, $30 million contract.

He's come nowhere near league-average production since. The last two years he's struggled with injuries, mostly hamstring in 2008 and a broken hand in 2009. After trying for months to find someone to trade him and his $11 million contract to, the DBacks admitted defeat and just released him Friday. I suspect we'll hear his name more than once as an example of how to be careful extending 30-ish outfielders when Michael Cuddyer nears free agency after 2011.

But for now, he represents an opportunity. The Twins need a fourth outfielder.

And this is where I caution anyone from throwing the two words "Jason Pridie" into the comments section. He's now 26, he posted a .295 OBP in AAA-Rochester last year and he struck out 152 times versus 30 walks. I don't care if he can navigate the outfield like a dragonfly on Red Bull, he is of little to no use unless you can designate a hitter for him. Has anyone ever done that? Let their pitcher bat and used the designated hitter on a whifftastic fielder? Is that even legal?

Byrnes is a decent answer for a choice I didn't want the Twins to have to make. Previously I thought they needed to decide between a fourth outfielder that could backup Denard Span in center field versus a veteran who could push Delmon Young to keep his head on straight. Byrnes has mostly played left field while with the Diamondbacks, but he played center field with the A's, and his career UZR there is positive. I don't think he's someone you want to trot out there everyday, but serving there in case of an injury is acceptable. And by all accounts, he brings it every day,plays good to above-average defense and sports a career OPS higher then Delmon's.

The biggest problem is that he's already being paid $11 million, so you can't just outbid someone for him. You have to convince him that the Twins are a desirable place for his career to bloom again, and that isn't going to happen if someone else offers him a starting spot. But if not (and that's possible given the bloated FA outfield market) convince him he just needs to beat out a very young, mostly disinterested, defensively painful, strike-zone-blind outfielder and he'll be the starting left fielder for a contending team.

That's not a bad sales pitch. For Eric Byrnes, I mean. Might want to not dwell on that too much in the next Twins Territory spot.