First Draft - The 2009 Offseason

It's hard to compare the "challenges" the Yankees face to the challenges the Twins face most offseasons, but this offseason is the exception. The Yankees don't need to worry about fielding a competetive core of ballplayers - they can buy that simply enough. Instead, they need to worry about finding the right pieces to build an exceptional ball club, one that will meet or exceed the loftiest expectations.



Suddenly the Cute Little Franchise That Could is facing that same challenge. They don't need to worry about fielding a competetive core of ballplayers - their farm system produced a bumper crop of talent last year. Instead, they need to worry about pulling the right levers to propel that team into the postseason, and hopefully beyond.



And this offseason, the Twins have something else in common with the Yankees - they have a bunch of money. With up to $35 million worth of payroll room and just two lineup positions to fill, the Twins could actually be players for the best free agent at both positions. And still have $10 million to spend on washed up veterans that they can release mid-year. (1)



Of course, the Twins had the same payroll room last year, and their biggest offseason acquisition was Mike Lamb. (2) This is where they differ from the Yankees. They might have the money to spend this year, but top free agents also tend to have the longest guaranteed contracts, and the Twins aren't willing to commit to the length of contracts for these players. When you're only willing to offer one or two year deals, you tend to wind up with lots of fairly replaceable players.



This year might be different. The top free agent 3B, Casey Blake, is 35 years old and won't get a deal longer than 3 years guaranteed, and the Twins can do that. Ditto Orlando Cabrera, who is 33 years old, though he'll cost quite a bit more. Both of these guys are right-handed, too.



But instead of making a play for either of them, I explore trades and I explore them right away, so I can look at either of these as a backup plan. To me, the prize acquisition is Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy, because he's such a good fit. He's young, just turning 26 years old in August. He's a right-handed bat who hits fifth in the Brewers lineup, hit 24 HR with 74 RBI last year, and he absolutely mashed left-handed pitching. He won't turn into a free agent until 2011, and the Twins might well be able to use some of that extra cash to buy out some of his early free agent years beforehand.



And the Twins and Brewers are good fits for a possible trade. Besides needing young pitchers, it's worth noting that the Brewers have a one-year $10 million option on 35-year-old center fielder Mike Cameron, who hit .243 last year with 142 K and declining defense. Offering them either Denard Span or Carlos Gomez clears a glut in the Twins OF next year, upgrades the Brewers outfield defense, and gives them $10 million they can spend on re-signing Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia.



As for third base, I love the idea of trading for Beltre in a contract year, and I'd certainly be willing to part with Glen Perkins or Nick Blackburn, and possibly another minor league asset, to do so. But I can't part with Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano or Kevin Slowey, or at least not stright up. I also like Blackburn and Perkins, but I also have faith that the farm system and Rick Anderson will produce another arm. Plus, when the Twins sign their annual veteran starting pitcher, it will mean he won't have to bump one of them from the rotation.



If the Mariners want more than that, I probably stick with the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon. I don't trust Garret Atkins and I really don't trust Kevin Kouzmanoff. Instead, I'll continue to look at other solutions, because I'm not buying that Danny Valencia is going to fill the gap at third base long-term. He's 24 years old, played in AA, and struck out 70 times in 246 at-bats (compared to just 18 walks).(3) And I'm supposed to believe that he's the future? I'm puzzled by this.



And that's a good enough first draft for day two of the offseason. We'll continue to explore possibilities, analyze players and participate in destructive rumor-mongering throughout the offseason, so stop by often. See you on Monday.

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(1) That's obviously become an offseason tradition. Really, everyone benefits. The GM gets to pretend he's picking up depth, even though he knows the manager will start the veteran. The bloggers get to stick pins into their own eyeballs. The manager gets to relish the veterany goodness of it all. And the radio call-ins get to slam the whole bunch.

Oh, and the prospects get to wait another couple of months and get called up mid-year. Since the veteran sucks, the prospect gets to play with almost no pressure. All he has to do is be a bit better than the guy that sucks. Hell, even if he sucks just as much, at least he's cheaper. Listen up kids - the key to a solid career is to make sure you always replace the guy that sucks.

(2) That was a move I fully endorsed, by the way. Remember that as you read today's thoughtful insights about offseason moves. And as you savage my choices on the comments section.

(3) Sorry Danny. But, I look forward to you proving me wrong.

The 2009 Twins General Manager Cheat Sheet

So, you’re looking at your Twins and wondering if you could do a better job? Well, to be a major league GM, you could either:

a) put some time in at the major league level, probably schlep around as a scout for a dozen years or so, stay on top of the free agent market, and experience the joy of negotiating with Satan, er, Scott Boras. Or…

b) stop by TwinsGeek.com.

It looks like you chose (b), so we know you’re smart, but let’s see how smart. Your job is to create a competitive 2009 team while keeping the payroll under $85 million (a pretty realistic estimate as to next year’s salary level).

We’ll give you the tools you need, including lists of the positions, the players who will most likely be back, their approximate salaries, and a list of the other assumptions we’re making in case you want to challenge them.

Then you come in. We’ll list the open positions and some of the options you have (including how much they cost). You can build your own team and compare it to the job Bill Smith does this offseason. Just make sure the total is under $85 million, because your boss isn’t known as the freest spender in the world.

The Lineup

These numbers are estimates, but they’re awfully close. Nick Punto is a free agent this year so we’re leaving his spot open, but you can try and sign him later if you like. You could also plug Brian Buscher in at 3B, or even platoon him with someone like Brendan Harris. More on that below.

By the way, you’ve spent $33 million so far.

The Rotation

Wow. Look at all those beautiful low salaries. You know it must bring a tear to Carl’s eye. The Twins entire starting rotation is making less than half of what the Mariners gave Carlos Silva as a signing bonus.

You may want to consider trading one of these arms for something you need next year. Otherwise, this staff is set, and you’ve spent $35.25 million.

The Bench

Again, most of this is taken care of. Carlos Gomez is listed as the 4th OF, because we have Michael Cuddyer back in the outfield. You’ll notice that Randy Ruiz isn’t on this list yet, either. You could carry him as your 5th outfielder and a right-handed platoon for Jason Kubel. Or you could sign a veteran bench player ala Craig Monroe.

Otherwise, you’ve spent $37.55 million so far.

The Bullpen

Dennys Reyes is a free agent this off-season, and with Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares doing well, I’ll leave him and Eddie Guardado out of next year’s plans. You’ll also notice that Matt Guerrier isn’t on the list either. He could be, but who does he bump? And is the roster spot worth the $2 million he’ll be due if you offer him arbitration?
Without Guerrier, your total is a shade over $49 million.

Summary
You’re most of the way there! 22 of the 25 roster spots are spoken for, and $49 million, er, $52.35 million is spent. Where did that other $3.3 million come from? Unfortunately, that is money you still owe the departed Mike Lamb. Still, you have almost $33 million to spend. Let’s see what your options are:


The Options

Shortstop

1. You can bring back Nick Punto with a two-year contract for $3 million per year.


2. You can start Matt Tolbert at SS and replace his bench spot with a utility infielder for just a half million dollars.


3. You can sign one of the free agent shortstops. Options include:
   a. Rafael Furcal – a speedy lead-off hitter who will demand $15 million/year for four years
   b. Orlando Cabrera - solid veteran and #2 hitter on the White Sox who will demand $11 million/year for three years
   c. Edgar Renteria – Tigers veteran whose defense is shaky and will want $8 million/year for two years
   d. David Eckstien – veteran spark plug who will want $4 million for 1 year


4. You can move Alexi Casilla to shortstop and sign one of these free agent second basemen:
   a. Orlando Hudson – Switch-hitter who hit .305 this year and will command $11 million/year for four years
   b. Mark Ellis – Great player, but bad shoulder. If he’s healthy, he’ll get $5 million to provie it for one year.
   c. Pick-A-Vet (Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Loretta, Ray Durham) - $3 million for one year of an old guy


5. Finally, you could trade for a shortstop:
   a. The Brewers might trade JJ Hardy ($5M) to make room for prospect Alcides Escobar. And with Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia likely on their way out of town, they could use a young effective pitcher.
   b. The Red Sox will shop Julio Lugo. He'll make $9 million over each of the next two years and is a veteran shortstop, but has struggled in Boston.

Third Base

1. You could have Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris platoon at the position, for just a half million dollars. You could even include prospects like Matt Macri, Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia in the competition in spring training.


2. You could sign a free agent:
   Casey Blake – He’s right-handed and 35 years old, and will probably get a three-year deal for $6 million per year.
   Joe Crede – Had a great year until his back sidelined him for the last two months; he’ll ask for $7 million for one year.
   Pick-A-Vet (Rich Aurilia, Russell Branyan, Wes Helms)—$3 million for one season of questionable production.


3. You could make a trade:
   a. Adrian Beltre – He’ll cost you $11 million and one of your young pitchers.
   b. Garrett Atkins – He’ll cost you $7 million and one of your young pitchers, and he hasn’t hit outside Coors.
   c. Kevin Kouzmanoff – He’ll cost you a half million dollars and one of your young pitchers. He’s 27 with a career .267 average.

Backup Outfielder

1. You could have Randy Ruiz occasionally play right field and be a right-handed bat off the bench. He’ll cost the major league minimum.


2. You could pick up a veteran free agent for backing up the OF:
   a. Cliff Floyd – LH veteran will likely get about $2.5 million next year.
   b. Jonny Gomes – RH reserve might be a nice gamble for $3M.
   c. So Taguchi – Probably not the bench bat Gardy would like but he sure will hustle for his $1 million.

How’d you do? Did you spend all your money? Did you pump up the offense? Do you still have your young pitchers? And, most importantly, is your boss going to be happy with how much you spent?

Great. Now let us see how you did in the comments below. (Unless, of course, it involves re-signing Mike Lamb. Then you might want to try again.)

"Flip of a Coin"

That's what my friend David said as the game ended and we watched the White Sox celebrating on their home turf.

He was referring to the home field advantage the White Sox had, but he might as well have been referring to half a dozen more figurative coin flips. Like the result of a one-run game between fairly even teams. Or the chance that AJ Pierzynski drops a ball as he is barrelled into by Michael Cuddyer. Or any of another dozen game this season that the Twins lost (or won) because of something as trivial and chancy as the flip of a coin.

By the way, you can include that last win against the White Sox at the Metrodome in that last example. That's why I grew increasingly squeamish as the players and media portrayed it as a litmus test of character. Well, how about now? Do the Twins lack character for losing the coin flip, maybe literally and figuratively, last night?

Nick Blackburn doesn't get the loss for that game because he lacked character. He got the loss because he threw a changeup high in the zone and across the heart of the plate twice in a row. And the Twns didn't fail to score runs because they lacked character. They failed to score runs because Joe Mauer had a couple of borderline strikes not go his way, and because Justin Morneau fell into his worst slump of the season at exactly the wrong time.

Oh, and because they were once again timid on the basepaths. If there is a bad taste in my mouth after this game, that's where it comes from. I understand that John Danks is left-handed and was especially interested in keeping the Twins from running. And I understand that this was a priority after the Tigers stole four bases last night. But that's because the Tigers stole four bases last night. And one of those was by Gary Sheffield. Using his walker.

But other than that (and it's not a minor quibble), credit the Twins for being creative and taking some risks. Sending Cuddyer with two outs on Brendan Harris' short fly ball was a no-brainer, because there is a 70% chance that either Ken Griffey's throw is not perfect or Pierzynski drops that ball. There is only a 30% chance (at best) that the next batter, Nick Punto, drives Cuddyer in. You send him every time on that play, and you need to credit Griffey and especially AJ for making the play.

The Twins also batted Jason Kubel againt Jenks to lead off the ninth, which is a nice little substitution. I also liked pinch-running Matt Tolbert. And I liked Mauer's attempt to get off the snide with the bunt in that long US Cellular grass. It was just a bad bunt.

On the opposite side, my biggest fear entering the game was that manager Ron Gardenhire would underuse the key assets in his bullpen. Instead he did exactly the opposite, bringing in his two best relievers, Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, earlier than might have been anticipated and rode them to 1 and 2/3 scoreless innings. And prior to Jim Thome hitting the moonshot (and it was an absolute moonshot), there wasn't much of an indication that Blackburn was tiring. It was just a really bad pitch. Especially because it followed a duplicate really bad pitch.

So give credit to the White Sox, who are at least as good a story as the Twins this year. I picked them for fourth after last year's implosion, so they exceeded my expectations at least as much as the Twins did. They also won this division despite more critical injuries that the Twins faced. And tonight they came up with a key hit, a key defensive play, and even a key defensive substitution to win the game. Make no mistake, I hate that team, but that's because they're worthy of hate.

Meanwhile, the Twins have nothing significant to hang their heads about after this game or this season. They reached their preseason goal of 162+, even if it's not necessarily what they had in mind. They had a very solid young core of players that succesfully navigated a pennant race and got a taste, albeit small, or what fall baseball can be like.

And they found out that fall baseball can come down to a hit. A throw. A catch. Or maybe just a flip of a coin.

The Offseason
I suspect you'll see a lot of stories today that wrap up the season in a nice little bow today for the Twins. Tomorrow you'll see a lot of speculation about what might happen in the offseason, and TwinsGeek.com will be no exception. Check in tomorrow or maybe even later today, after the requisite mourning period.

Bring on the "+"

The magic number is "1", so one way or the other, the Twins are going to meet their preseason "F U" goal of playing 162+ games.

By now, you've probably heard about the t-shirts that they had made in spring training that said something like "162+" on the front and "Prove Them Wrong" on the back. (If not, I'm guessing you'll hear about it again this week.) And one way or the other, the Twins know that the'll be playing again this week. The question is whether their next game will be a playoff game versus the Rays, or a "play in" game versus the White Sox.

Bet on the latter. Vegas certainly is. They're giving slightly better than 2:1 odds for the White Sox in this game.

There will be lots of talk about how the Tigers want to knock the White Sox out of the playoffs, but in reality, there is almost no incentive for them to do well. It's probably a little bit telling Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield and Edgar Renteria are all listed on the injury report as "day-to-day". Manager Jim Leyland is known to be quite a motivator, but you can be sure that most of that roster would just as soon phone in that game.

The one exception might be the Tigers' pitcher, Freddy Garcia, who will be pitching for a decent offseason contract after a lost season due to shoulder surgery. Unfortunately, incentive only take a guy so far, and they don't instantaneously cure scar tissue. Garcia has had two starts in the majors, and has lasted only five innings in each. His first, against the Rangers, went well. His second, against the Royals, did not. And his AAA stats from this year, where he made 11 starts, are underwhelming as well.

The White Sox will trot out Gavin Floyd, just three days ago in the series finale at the Metrodome. Floyd will be pitching on 3 days rest, and when he did that a week ago he gave up 5 runs in 6.1 innings to KC.

Against the Twins, Floyd threw 101 pitches, but only made it through 5.2 innings. If he leaves relatively early again, Ozzie Guillen will have his two best relievers available. Both Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks pitched yesterday, but neither threw even 10 pitches. So that's another couple of trump cards the White Sox can play.

Finally, it's worth noting that the White Sox have dominated the Tigers this year, even when the Tigers did have plenty of incentive. They're 11-6 against Detroit this year, and 6-2 at home. You might recall them even sweeping a double-header against the Tigers just two weeks ago. And Floyd has two of those 11 wins.

Which brings us to Tuesday. That's when the "+" game will most likely be played, and when I expect the oddsmakers in Vegas to again favor the White Sox. We'll see if the Twins can once again "Prove Them Wrong".

Individual Races

If the "play in" game versus the White Sox becomes a reality, the stats in that game count towards the players regular season totals. That could mean good things for those people hoping for an individual award for Justin Morneau. He would need two RBI to pass Josh Hamilton for the RBI lead.

Joe Mauer;s second batting championship looks to be safe either way. I see Dustin Pedroia didn't play in the Red Sox second game last night, and so he stayed at .326 while Mauer is rounded up to .330. He would need to go 0 for 6 to fall below Pedroia's level.

I'm a little baffled by Pedroia not playing. If you had a shot at a batting championship, wouldn't you play that second game? I'm guessing there is a story there I don't know.

It's a Maxwell's Night

Just a heads up. I'll be watching the game at Maxwell's tonight starting at 7:30 or so, and particpating in the pregame revelry from 6-6:45, too. If you're interested in joining me, TVOR and some friends, you're certainly invited.

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Update
Got this comment: "Please don't go to Maxwell's again this year. You've gone twice now, and both times the Twins have been blown out."


And I could NOT agree more. I actually logged in tonight to say exactly the same thing. Maxwell's cannot happen again this year. As evidence I'll point out the profile in the Dugout Splinters for Kyle Davies that I wrote yesterday:

Friday: RHP Kyle Davies (8-7, 4.21 ERA)

• 2008: 107 IP, 117 H, 10 HR, 41 BB, 63 K
• AAA: 6-2, 2.03 ERA, 57.2 IP, 47 H, 38 K
• Davies came to the Royals last year at the trade deadline, acquired from the Braves for Octavio Dotel.
• It wasn’t just his 6.66 ERA last year that made Royals fans think he might be Satan. He struggled with his control mightily, throwing seven wild pitches and hitting 3 batters in just 50 IP.
• He’s been much better this year, both at AAA and in the majors. His control has improved, and the most important benefit of that is that balls are staying in the park. He gave up exactly as many home runs last year, but it was in less than half the innings.

When Kyle Davies strikes out eight in six innings while walking just two, there are supernatural powers at work. And I watched the game at an increasingly empty watering hole, that became more and more apparent.


But there was some cheering, mostly due to the ESPN ticker. When the blinking bright little white square turned to a '9' behind 'CLE', it was the most raucous and communal moment of the night.


The number we didn't see was '3', but that was the real number we were cheering, because that's the Twins magic number following the White Sox loss to Cleveland. We'll hope our boys can wittle it down themselves tomorrow.


Hopefully we'll have something better than a blinking bright little white square to cheer.

Speed Kills

In baseball, "speed" doesn't translate well. Speed doesn't beget speed, or at least not speed in terms of scoring runs quickly. It's a misnomer.

Much like "piranha" has become a misnomer. In fact, it has become a dirty word in Twins Territory, mostly because it had been so revered in 2006. Its meaning transformed from "guys whose speed can impact a game" to "overhyped guys without any power that Gardy falls in love with". And that's why you won't hear Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Alexi Casilla referred to as "piranhas" today.

But last night we saw exactly what piranhas are supposed to be. A group that swarms around you in a feeding frenzy. A group that turns ground balls down the line or in the gap into three bases, whether the runner start at first or home. A group that smells blood and goes 9 for 14 with three triples and two doubles.

But mostly it's a group or players where you feel like somehow, someway, they're going to find a way to turn a break into a run. Bobby Jenks talked last night about how one of the problems you face as a closer is that you can't pitch around these guys. And Ozzie Guillen talked about how you must pitch to them, because you can't walk them and put that speed on base. And they're right.

But these guys make it even tougher by managing the strike zone. Anything below a 2.0 K/BB is above average. Here are our guys:

Nick Punto - 1.96
Alexi Casilla - 1.39
Denard Span - 1.27
Carlos Gomez - 5.56

OK, Gomez is still dismal in that regard. I'm on board. You're talking to the guy who suggested demoting him just a month ago. And I still don't see where he plays on this team next year. But I also don't know how you don't play him next year.

And as for Casilla and Span, I don't know how you don't PAY them next year. The Twins are fortunate enough to find themselves with a couple of young players with promising futures, very little service time, and tangible results. They'll also likely have somewhere between $25 million and $35 million worth of payroll room for things like signing bonuses. It sure seems like a pretty good match.

But that's something to worry about in the offseason and today the offseason seems pleasantly distant. A team that can chip away a division rival's five run lead in less than six innings sounds like a team that can score a run or two in the playoffs when it really needs to.

And that's why speed is a misunderstood. It doesn't translate to big, fast-scoring innings. It translates to certainty. Or, if you rather, to muscling a single run across through sheer force of will. That happened seven times tonight in five different innings.

And little by little, like piranhas, it killed.

Ozzie and the Press
"I will. I'll take two sleeping pills and a glass of vodka and to go to sleep tonight. I'll need it tonight."
- Ozzie Guillen

OK, that's probably not the exact quote, but I'm a blogger, and my TIVO happened to crap out, so sue me. Get, and enjoy, the exact quote from someone who cares about the details.

And while you're at it, you might want to pity those poor beat writers a little too. Can you imagine needing to write up a game story or column after that game? On a deadline? It's been a couple of hours and I'm still trying to figure out what I just saw. fortunately, I can spit out just about anything. Journalists, on the other hand would almost certainly not be able to write up the next blurb.

Mike....Really?
This game wasn't decided by poor umpiring, but it's pretty clear that it was just dumb luck that it wasn't. As I watched home plate Mike Reilly look like he was guessing on about every fifth pitch, I assumed he was a rookie umpire in a very big game, and was simly over his head.

Turns out, the only way I could've been more wrong is if I was actually Mike Reilly trying decipher a borderline pitche. Reilly has been an umpire for 31 years, and was either really gifted or really connected in the 70s because he rocketed through the minors to the majors in just five years. Plus, he sounds like a hell of a guy. He lives in the town he grew up in. Has four kids. He's even on the Board of Directors for Big Brothers/Big Sisters.

Of course, none of that made a smidgen of difference last night as he turned each pitch into a guessing game for the batter. I don't know if he had a bad night, or if he's just going through a rough patch, or if he's losing it after 31 years on the job. But I do know that someone besides the guys yelling from the two dugouts should call that performance what it was: embarassing. It truly marred an otherwise amazing game.

Freezing Up
Punto, Gomez, Span and Casilla got on base 12 times last night. AJ Pierzynski has thrown out just 21 out of 112 stolen base atempts. And the Twins not only had no stolen bases, they didn't have any official stolen base attempts.

Now, part of that is becaue the Twins just plain swing the bats. And it's not like they didn't try to be aggressive. There were multiple stolen base attempts on foul balls, and even a suicide squeeze play that could've scored the winning run in the eighth inning.

But it didn't happen, and it didn't happen for a reason. The Twins batters are willing to watch a couple of strikes, but the runners on base aren't willing to risk a stolen base on the first or couple pitches. Opposing teams have learned this, and they're throwing a lot of early strikes when, say, Gomez is on first base. Why not? Span is taking them, because that's what he should do. Gomez is sticking around first, because he's studying the pitcher. Why not get ahead in the count and force Span to foul off pitches later, when Gomez is more likely to run?

And it's driving me crazy, especially in the late innings of close games. Can we do something about this please? We're not going to learn anything life-altering by watching Jenks throw two pitches to the plate. How about we take off the skirt, get on our horse, and gallop to second base on the first pitch occasionally?

(Deep cleansing breath)

Ok, that' probably more than enough for tonight. But it's likely not enough for the weekend. The magic number is still four, with just three games to play. That will likely be hard to wittle down without sweeping the Royals, including a tough game on Saturday where the Glen Perkins faces Gil Meche. Feel free to stop by on the weekend. One way or the other, I'll likely be covering it.

Flip-flopping a Flopped Bullpen

So. I'm a wreck.


A happy, elated, jaunty wreck, but a wreck nonetheless. I'd forgotten how exhausting fall baseball can be. This decade the Twins have usually clinched relatively early and exited the playoffs even earlier. To be frank, I'm not sure I'm built for this. Which isn't to say I'm ready for it to end.


But the Twins have essentially begun the playoffs a week early, and they've begun them with a string of must-win games. Last night's was a classic playoff game, complete with a packed dome, stingy runs, and a self-adminstered angioplasty.


But I wouldn't have it any other way, and not just because it moved the Twins within a half game of first place. This is the kind of game the Twins need to win in the playoffs, and tonight they unveiled the new upside-down bullpen hierarchy that they hope is going to get them there:


9th - Joe Nathan
8th - Jose Mijares
7th - Boof Bonser
6th - Craig Breslow


Thank god. This is the problem that has plagued the Twins for the second half of this year, and a problem that both the GM and the manager seemed reluctant to attack. It took longer to solve it that it should have, but it looks like there is a solution, or at least there was tonight.


Nick Blackburn did well enough for five innings, and he'll get the "W", but the final four innings in a one run game are a lot more important than the first five. It appears that White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen agreed, letting starter Mark Buehrle throw 121 pitches to get him through the late innings. That's probably fine, but it's worth noting that Buehrle is the pitcher that will need to be used on Monday if the White Sox must play that last game against the Tigers.


(And while we're at it, Javier Vazquez is the pitcher that lines up for the White Sox last game on Sunday versus the Indians. Both now look like they could be critical games, and Ozzie has led frontal attacks on Vazquez's confidence and Buehrle's stamina the last two games. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out on the south side.)


Tonight's White Sox pitcher is Gavin Floyd, not John Danks as I said yesterday. Floyd is right-handed, known as a bit of a space-case, and he's been scary good against the Twins this year - better than Buehrle and better than Vazquez. He'll be facing Kevin Slowey who pitched a shutout against the Sox the last time he faced them in the Metrodome.


But the good news today is that it doesn't look like he's going to need to. With the new flip-flopped bullpen, a one-run lead is sustainable again.


Now, if only my systolic blood pressure was....



Speed Round Thoughts
- The magic number is six. I haven't seen the magic number guy at the dome yet. Is he there yet this year? Will he show up for tomorrow's game just so he can unveil it if they win?


- Manager Ron Gardenhire started LH-hitting Jason Kubel at DH over RH-hitting Michael Cuddyer because left-handers have hit .309 against Buehrle this year, and right-handers have hit just .267. La Velle E Neal had a nice tidbit in his blog about talking to Corey Koskie about the same thing and having Koskie confirm that Buehrle's cutter can be hit very hard by lefties when he misses his spot.


It's nice to see the coaching staff pay attention to this sort of thing. And it's even more encouraging to see them act on it. That said....


Over the last three years (2005-2007) left-handers and right-handers have hit Buehrle almost exactly the same statistically. But, he's faced almost four times as many right-handed hitters. Generally, the ratio is closer to 2:1, so when you see a ratio that high, it means that opposing managers are only letting the very best left-handed hitters face Buehrle.


So those equal stats were put up by very different groups of players - elite left-handed batters hit Buehrle about as well as the whole spectrum of right-handed hitters. Which means he's been quite a bit better against left-handed batters for his career. Maybe that changed a little bit this year, but don't take it as gospel that Buehrle can be hit by left-handed bats.


And, by the way, Kubel went hitless, though he did draw a walk. And the only Twins players to have multiple hits last night were Delmon Young and Brendan Harris. They both bat right-handed.

- Oh, and I did another podcast with Seth yesterday, this one with Nick Nelson from Nick and Nick's and Howard Sinker from A Fan's View. You can find the podcase (and subscribe) here.

If Bruce Dickinson Wants More Kubel, We Should Probably Get Him More Kubel

So, how long have we waited for last night?

Several years, at least. In 2006, when Jason Kubel kick-started the Twins hot streak with an extra-inning grand slam against the Red Sox, we hoped he was all the way back. But it was longer than that, because you don't start talking about "being all the way back" unless you are already waiting for a guy to return to form.

I suppose we could go back to the injury, which was way back in the fall of 2004 for chrissakes. That was so long ago that Luis Rivas was ending his tenure at second base. But you can even stretch it back a bit further that year, to when Kubel was beating the living snot out of pitchers in AA and AAA, posting a 1000+ OPS between the two leagues.

Since then we've watched him rehab physically for two years, and rehab mentally for another two. And it's been painful for us, too. We've watched a guy whose confidence was AWOL for most of last year, such that one could legitimately question whether he needed to revisit the minors.

But tonight the wait was worth...no, that's not right. One night doesn't make up for four years of purgatory. Purgatory sucks. It's a place short of heaven, but within sight of it. And you're weighed down with stones until you learn to humble your pride.

He should have regained some of that pride last night. He faced a pitcher who has dominated him (2 hits in 21 AB) in the past. He was playing in the biggest game of the season. And he batted behind the top of the order which collectively went just 2 for 17. And yet he carried the team to an important victory, turning a one-run deficit into a one-run lead and then padding it later. If he keeps that kind of performance up, we're all going to be walking around in gold-plated diapers.

Manager Ron Gardenhire defended Kubel's place in the lineup before the game, and wasn't above gloating a bit after the game about his decision. He pointed out that he had watched all 21 of those previous at-bats against Vazquez and that Kubel had several quality at-bats in that bunch. And then he pointed out that Kubel now sits with 20 home runs. Unsaid was that Kubel also has 78 RBI, which is just one short of Joe Mauer for second place on the team.

But Gardenhire will have a tougher decision tonight. Left-handed pitcher Mark Buehrle will be facing the Twins, and while Kubel has improved versus lefties, he's still hitting just .234 against them with no power to speak of.

Well, OK, maybe it isn't such a tough decision. Kubel, after his night of glory, will likely spend some time on the bench tomorrow, hoping that the White Sox are eventually forced to bring in a right-handed reliever. Or maybe he'll just wait there until Thursday, when the Twins face right-handed John Danks. And he'll likely wait there patiently.

After all, he waited four years for last night. We all did. What's 48 more hours?

Other Stuff
Let's throw down as many more thoughts as I can in fifteen minutes....

- Justin Morneau broke the record for most doubles in a season by a Twin passing...Marty Cordova? Seriously? Can someone explain to me how a guy with plantar fasciatis for his ENTIRE TWINS CAREER beat out Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Kirby Pucket and Chuck Knoblauch for doubles in a season? Those big casts/boots are heavy. And don't try to argue with me about the plantar fasciatis. I was there. He had it every game for his ENTIRE TWINS CAREER.

- If Gardy really wants to puff his chest a bit, he should point out that he chose Nick Punto, of all people, to bunt on a suicide squeeze. That might not sound strange until you remember that Punto, in the midst of his journey through Dante's seven circles last year, couldn't bunt to save his life. And now Gardenhire has him laying down a bunt with Delmon Young running full steam towards the plate? Talk about playing a hunch.

Of course, not only did Punto get the bunt down, but he may have placed the most perfect bunt of all time. I'm serious. Consider: not only did it get the run in, but he singled even though the middle infielders were playing in to try and cut down the run at the plate. How does that even happen?

- Let's not forget Delmon Young and his three hits. Early on he was driving the ball to the opposite field, and then he turned on one and drove it deep to the left field bleachers. He also made a couple of plays in left field, despite still being limited by his sprained ankle. He was also interviewed following the game and left two impressions:

1) he was absolutely tickled to be getting the attention and
2) he is not going to fall for the "banana in the tailpipe" trick.

He's hitting .293 now. He isn't the player that we hope he will be yet, but he's probably not the player he hopes he will be yet, either. But he looks like he is heating up at exactly the right time.

- Finally, as Scott Baker finished the seventh inning with 100 pitches, I wondered who would pitch out of the bullpen. I assumed it would not be Jesse Crain, Jose Reyes or Matt Guerrier, because Gardenhire would still view them as someone to save for a closer game. I guessed Bobby Korecky would get the call.

I was somewhat relieved to see that it was Crain and Guerrier that got the work, because I'm almost sure that this means that we'll see Jose Mijares in the next close eighth inning. And I'm encouraged by the results, too. Crain did well and hopefully regained some confidence. Guerrier gave up another very long home run and will hopefully come nowhere near a close game for a bit longer. He could use the rest. And, frankly, so could my artery walls.

That's it for tonight. Whatever each of you did to ensure a Twins victory, make sure you do it tonight too. I'll be dumping water on my head as I try to sell GameDay's prior to the game. At 1.5 games out and facing Buehrle, we can't be too careful.

Ozzie's Gambit

By Kyle Eliason

The following will appear in GameDay's Dugout Splinter this series.

Manager Ozzie Guillen shuffled the entire White Sox rotation in preparation for this, the biggest series of the season for both clubs. Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd all made their previous starts on just three days rest.

Chicago won just one of those three games despite using their three best starters, which will raise questions about Guillen’s decision should the White Sox falter in Minnesota. First, Vazquez got rocked by the Yankees, allowing seven runs and failing to get out of the fourth inning in last Thursday’s 9-2 loss. He struck out and walked four. Then would come Buehrle’s turn, and the only win that resulted from the first stage of Ozzie’s gambit. The southpaw allowed three runs in six innings of work last Friday, all coming in the bottom of the fourth from Royals’ third baseman Mark Teahen’s homerun. Floyd would then follow on Saturday, losing to the Royals as a result of allowing three homers, five runs and eight hits in six-and-a-third.

There is good news in that the Sox failed to widen their lead as much as the might have. The bad news is that their three best pitchers are all rested and ready for the Twins. Vazquez threw just 88 pitches last Thursday, Buehrle threw just 93 on Friday and Floyd just 93 on Saturday.

The Vazquez-Baker match up is an interesting opener to the series, as neither pitcher has lost to the other team this season, but neither has pitched particularly well, either. Vazquez is 2-0 with a 5.11 ERA against the Twins this season and Baker is 1-0 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against the Sox.

The Buehrle-Blackburn match up is worrisome. The former looked good on just three days rest in his last start, the latter looked worn down by the long season despite pitching on regular rest and failed to make it out of the second inning in his last trip to the mound. Here’s hoping the extra rest resulting from getting bounced early helps Blackburn find what he needs to outduel a notorious Twins killer.

The Flyod-Slowey match up is perhaps the most interesting. The Twins do not have Floyd figured out yet, and he’s posted a 1.86 ERA in three starts against Minnesota. And Slowey threw a complete game shutout in his only start against the White Sox this season.

The White Sox’ offense is built around power. They lead the majors in homeruns and enter the series having outhomered Minnesota a whopping 223 to 108. Normally that would translate into one of the top offenses in baseball, but Chicago finds themselves in the second tier due to an average on-base percentage and middling batting average. And they also find themselves without their best hitter. Left fielder Carlos Quentin, who leads the club in runs (96), homeruns (36), runs batted in (100), on-base percentage (.394) and slugging percentage (.571), has been out since September 2nd with a wrist injury. His cast has come off and he’s working on strengthening his wrist, but he is unlikely to return before the postseason, if the White Sox are able to make it that far.

To compensate for the loss of Quentin, Guillen has moved the versatile Nick Swisher, who can man both first base and all three outfield slots, to left field full-time. The aged body of Ken Griffey Jr. patrols centerfield, and Jermaine Dye is handling right. Swisher, who was acquired from Oakland via trade before the season began, is finishing up a horrible season. Coming off two seasons in which he posted an OPS higher than .830, Swisher has seen that decline to a mark of .746, which doesn’t hack it at a corner position.

Prior to Quentin’s injury, Guillen had the option of mixing and matching the likes of Swisher (.746 OPS), Griffey (.761 OPS) and Dewayne Wise (a fluke .860 OPS in 104 at bats) in center, and Swisher and Paul Konerko (.773 OPS) at first base. That option is now gone. It’s too bad the Twins have three righties scheduled to pitch, as both Wise and Griffey bat left-handed and struggle with southpaws and Swisher is no longer a platoon option.

Second baseman Alexi Ramirez had been another right-handed option for Guillen’s outfield, but Joe Crede’s back has him sidelined, which meant shifting Juan Uribe to third base full time and planting Ramirez at second. Josh Fields is kind of an option at third, but he’s be terrible in very limited playing time at the Major League level this season, and now officially looks like a first round bust. Enter the likes of Chris Getz as reserve second baseman and Guillen is announcing to the media that his infield depth is now, “paper thin.”

The White Sox have not been the same club since Quentin went down. Dye, designated hitter Jim Thome and the aforementioned Ramirez are all still solid hitters relative to their position, but no one has really stepped up to replace the loss of their MVP candidate. Their rotation has been rested and reordered in anticipation of this series. Their manager has been quick to lay into his players for failing to pull away from a Twins club that hasn’t done much to try and steal the division. Their bullpen, like the Twins’, has its holes. As Tuesday’s first pitch draws near, it is striking just how similar these two teams look. Both have two or three dangerous hitters, solid but not dominant starters, and have been playing .500 or worse baseball for the past two weeks.

The beauty of late-season baseball is that something as trivial as the bench players available to two American League clubs might shape the outcome of the Central Division and possibly the playoffs. Here’s hoping our home town nine can get it done this week.

Praising Hope, Imbalance, and Swinging for the Fences

Keeping Hope Alive

It's natural to think about a sweep, and that would be great, but the Twins don't need to sweep the White Sox to keep their hopes alive. Two our of three will do just fine.

Taking two out of three would mean the Twins trail the White Sox by 1.5 games with three left to play, but the Twins last three games will be versus the Royals, against whom the Twins are 11-4 this year. Meanwhile, the White Sox will need to play an Indians team that is 31-17 since August 1st. If the Twins gain a game during that series, the White Sox will need to play and beat the Tigers next Monday to win the division. If they lose that game, they'll be playing the Twins for the division title late next week.

Don't get me wrong - a sweep would be absolutely fabulous, but there is still plenty of hope left so long as the Twins win the series.

Division Results

Turns out that 72 games is a big chunk of the season. A big, and very important, chunk.

That's how many games each team in the AL Central plays against its own division, and again this year it is determining whose final weeks are relevent. The Twins are 21-15 against Detroit and Cleveland this year, and the White Sox are even better at 21-11 with several games left. Here are the overall results of each of the division teams against each other:

Chicago 41-24

Minnesota 39-27

Cleveland 34-35

Detroit 27-41

Kansas City 26-40

Not only does the order reflect the actual overall standings, but it even reflects the magnitude of difference between them. Chicago is about two games better than the Twins, who are about five games over Cleveland, who is about seven games over Detroit, who is just a gave over the Royals. It's the same for actual standings. It's uncanny.

The unbalanced schedule is despised by many for what is perceived to be an unfair impact on races. But this year in the AL Central, the division looks like like it was decided by how the teams played against each other, not just against common opponents. And I can't think of a better or more satisfying way to decide a division.

Watching Morneau and Mauer

Even if things do go south, it should be fun to watch Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer this week. I'll admit, I haven't paid much attention to individual batting races since I was about ten years old, but for some reason this year's has me entranced.

First, there is Morneau's pursuit of the RBI title. He's in a three way race with Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera, who are behind him by 4 and 3 RBI respectively. it interests me because a couple of months ago it looked like Hamilton would run away with this award, and because of it's impact on the MVP voting. If the Twins last until the last weekend, and Morneau wins the RBI title, I think he'll end up with that second MVP award, and we'll all get to bask in the righteous indignation directed his way by people who don't like how it's awarded. Delicious.

But that interest pales in comparison to the Batting Average championship that Mauer is chasing. Mauer is also in a 3 way race, but he separated himself this weekend a bit. He's hitting .330, while Dustin Pedroia is at .324 and Magglio Ordonez is at .323. It holds more interest for purely sentimental reasons, because I grew up watching Rod Carew and he was in the mix every year. Batting championships remind me of listening to Herb, chewing cardboardish bubble gum and using my calculator to figure out batting averages. It reminds me of youth.

And, finally, I'm carefully watching another race for Mauer too. Mauer is on the cusp of hitting double-digit homeruns this year, stuck at nine. In a column at the beginning of the year I predicted that Mauer would start to show more power this year, and Kyle Eliason quickly jumped all over me based on Mauer's ground ball percentage. I had him put his money where his EQA is, so we have some sort of eating/drinking bet on Mauer's HR total, with 10 being a push.

And if I had to choose between the quiet satisfaction of a misty memory inspired batting championship and gloating over a few free pints and dinner at the Local, which one would I choose?

Swing away, Joe. Swing for the fences.

Well. THAT didn't work too well.

The bad news? Our starting pitching is cooked. Oh, and my whole magic number idea doesn't seem to be working any miracles. Whoulda thunk?

The good news? Maxwell's is back, and I have a pack of friends on the patio soaking up a gorgeous indian summer night. (And the White Sox are currently tied with KC.). If the magic number budges, I'll post again, but right now I think I'm going to take my queue from Blackburn and leave this game prematurely.

The Magic Number

So I'm watching the bottom of the eighth, the Twins trail 8-6 and I'm anticipating the fifth straight loss for the Twins. On my "to do" list for the day is to prepare some things in the unlikely event of a Twins postseason appearance. So I send out an email and end it with....

Maybe talking about this will change the team's luck.

Twins win, 11-6.

Is it that easy? Frankly, I've been trying just about everything else - different shirts, different hats, watching, not watching, watching on different TVs, watching while wearing hats - even wearing hats but not while I'm watching. I've been a frantic little mouse banging my head on the walls of this Skinnerian maze in a desperate attempt for a little cheese.

Could it be that all I really needed was a little positivity?

Allright - this geek is game. Let's start with the most positive thing I can think of AND the one thing this pennant race has been missing - The Magic Number. We haven't had one because the Twins haven't nudged their way into first place, and usually one doesn't figure out The Magic Number until one is in first place. But it's not like one CAN'T figure out The Magic Number until one is in first place.

To figure out The Magic Number, you just figure out the maximum number of wins your closest competitor can get, and then figure out how many more games you would need to win to surpass it. In this case:

1) The White Sox have 84 wins with 10 games left to play, so they could end the season with 94 wins.

2) The Twins have 83 wins, so they would need to win 12 games.

3) The fact that the Twins only have nine games left is irrelevant - The Magic Number is still 12.

Let's start treating this like a pennant race and see what happens. The Magic Number is going up at the top of this post, and if it moves, I'll be updating it. How's that for optimism?

And since pennant races are meant to be watched with friends and strangers, tomorrow night I'm going to try and make it to the newly renovated Maxwell's to get my fall classic groove on. Hope to see you there. Look for a guy who is a Twins fan. And a geek. But he's going to be working like hell to keep it from being kinda sad. Really.

Flat Lining

In a baseball season full of suprises, maybe the biggest one is how little we all seem to care about a pennant race.




Frankly, I didn't think it could be this way. I waited almost a decade for a pennant race, and entering this season I feared I might be at the beginning of another long wait. Instead I was treated to players blossoming before my eyes and not one - but two! - MVP worthy seasons from the middle of the order. The excitement should only have built as summer became fall.



Instead, this site is flat lining. My attention is also flat lining. So is the team. And attendance. And TV ratings. And community interest. And it's all happening at exactly the time that it shouldn't - in a pennant race in September with a young and likeable team.



So why haven't I been blogging? Because I haven't been watching. Judging by the numbers, a lot of people aren't. And why, with the Twins still in contention, haven't I watched more than a handful of Twins games in a month? Because it's absolutely painful, that's why. And it's even more painful because all of this pain is so damn unnecesessary.



It's that last point - the "so damn unnecessary" - which makes it especially hard for the hardcore fans to watch this team right now. We're a forgiving lot. We can understand a team, especially a young team, that can't keep their head above water in the fall. Or a team that is leveled by injuries. But watching the Twins bullpen overshadow any success this team could have is a damn hard thing for a hardcore fan to accept, because a hardcore fan knows the back story.



Namely, that the Twins have had months and months to fix this problem and the general manager and manager have seemingly conspired to do as little as possible. No. "Conspired" isn't the right word. That implies that the two of them worked together to direct this little cruise over the river Styx. To create a mildewing mess like this usually requires working at odds with each other.



I understand how ridiculous this next sentence is going to be, but that's what makes it so nauseating. If Bill Smith was intentionally and covertly trying to sabotage this team's playoff chances, I'm not sure what more he could have done since May 29th. That's the day the Twins claimed Craig Breslow off waivers.



For the next three months, the Twins only addition to the bullpen was failed starter Boof Bonser, who posted an 8.74 ERA in his first two months there. The other moves were subractions - dumping Juan Rincon and demoting Brian Bass. And, not too shockingly, over the next three months, the bullpen got gassed, and starting at the end of July, they really struggled.



And yet, nothing was done, either externally or internally. No trades were completed before the deadline, even though several relievers were traded prior to it. No waiver pickups afterwards. There were no promotions from AAA Rochester, though several candidates looked viable (like Bobby Korecky and Ricky Barret). And not only did they not call-up several high-ceiling arms from the middle levels of the minors (Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama), they didn't even promote them to slightly higher minor league levels.



That inactivity changed a little at the end of August when Eddie Guardado was acquired, but in retrospect, all that really did was make it more difficult to call up one of the promising minor leaguers. Not that it had to be any more difficult. When rosters were finally expanded, the only bullpen arms that were added were Korecky, Philip Humber and Jose Mijares. The rest of them were passed over because the Twins didn't think they would have enough opportunities for them.



Blink. Blink.



Let's unpack that logic a little. In August, the Twins lost twelve games, and in eight of them, a member of the bullpen was the losing pitcher. Almost across the board, there hadn't been a single reliable pitcher beyond Joe Nathan for most of the season. In particular, the guys who had been used as setup men - Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Jose Reyes - had really fallen apart since the end of July. And yet the Twins were worried about not having opportunities for fire-throwing minor leaguers? Really? Just what opportunities were going to be in short supply? I mean, other than congratulatory post-game handshakes? Because it wasn't going to be relief opportunities.



Or was it? Because this is where our story shifts to the only person who could make Smith's festering stasis look downright visionary - manager Ron Gardenhire. It turns out that Smith was right. There were no opportunities for these guys because Gardenhire continued to trot out the same guys who have failed nearly every test they'd been given over the last month.



He also sat on his most promising set-up candidate for almost two weeks. That would be Mijares, who finally made his first appearance on the 13th and has sinced been used four times in five days. In those four appearance, Mijares has given up just two hits in 3.2 innings and has yet to walk a batter. He'll end up with the loss for last night's game partly because of Buster Keaton inspired defense. But we also might wonder why he was pulled from a tie game with a runner on third and two outs for Guerrier - who has now given up eight hits and four walks in his last 1.1 IP.



Reread those numbers at the end of that last sentence. Tally it up. Now guess what happened.



So let's review. The Twins have known since early May (when Pat Neshek was injured) that their bullpen was going to struggle, but the only moves they made were to pick up two left-handed setup guys, one in May and the other in August. Otherwise, they sat in a state of suspended disbelief, while claiming that they didn't dare risk losing any of their valuable bullpen arms.



(Of course, when they needed the roster spot for a hitter, they convinced one of those Valuable Bullpen Arms that he wasn't so valuable, so he accepted a demotion rather than try free agency. Then, three weeks later, they decided that the Valuable Bullpen Arm wasn't even worth calling up for September. And then, a week later, they gave the Valuable Bullpen Arm to the Orioles for a minor league player to be named later. So maybe the whole "Valuable Bullpen Arm" thing might have been a stretch.)



When the Twins finally had oodles of roster space, they call up just three guys, and only two of them are perceived as having any kind of future as a set-up reliever. And then the manager refused to use them anyway, because he said he can't trust them with a six run lead. Instead he trusted the guys whose WHIP has spiked like an introductory ARM rate. Of course, he might have been more comfortable if they tried out some of these guys in July or June instead of sitting on their VBAs.



If Smith and Gardenhire are both truly trying to pull this team over the finish line (and it's not totally apparent they both are) they may want to try pulling in the same direction. Otherwise you just get a tug of war, and a lot of effort that results in almost no movement.



Oh, and a rope that looks an awful lot like a flat line.

Spoiled, Obsessed and Fuming

Spoiled, obsessed and fuming is no way to go through life. Or at least not through a baseball season.

Talking about the Eddie Guardado deal to several friends, I remarked how it crystalized just how pathetic the Twins bullpen situation really has been. The Twins picked up Guardado, who is really nothing more than an average reliever at this point in his career, and he's instantly the second best guy on the staff. And maybe the only other guy in which the fans might have some confidence.

If that doesn't clarify exactly how bad the bullpen has been, nothing does, right? We had Nathan and five to seven guys who were - at best - below average. So why the hell did it take so long to address this? What little delusional hole does Twins management find themselves in.

It was a great point - had it not been completely wrong.

On two Sundays this month, I have literally fumed for hours for at the Twins inability to upgrade their bullpen. Some would say that's a sign that I don't have a life, and I readily concede that. But, to be fair, in both cases I was returning from a road trip and precious little else to obsess about.

But the Twins bullpen pitchers aren't bad across the board. BaseballProspectus.com has a slick little statistic it tracks for relievers called Average Run Prevented(ARP). It supposedly measures how many runs a reliever prevents versus your average pitcher. (How it does this is kind of neat, and for you other geeks, I'll cover it at the end of the story). So if you have a positive factor, you're an above average reliever. Negative? You're below average. Going into yesterday's tilt, here's how the members of the Twins bullpen ranked:

Joe Nathan +20.8
Craig Breslow +9.2
Bobby Korecky +5.7
Jesse Crain +5.4
Matt Guerrier +3.0
Dennis Reyes +2.7
Pat Neshek -0.9
Brian Bass -4.3
Boof Bonser -4.5
Juan Rincon -13.0

The existing members of the bullpen, with the exception of Boof, are all above-average relievers this year. And if you're wondering, Guardado's ARP for the year is 8.6, which means he's not quite the second most effective pitcher on the staff, or even the best left-hander. Breslow beats him out.

This doesn't mean that Bill Smith is off the hook. I can still list an even dozen realistic things the Twins could have done to help out their bullpen this year, and none of them were done. In fact, between 5/29 (when the Twins claimed Breslow) and this week - or for almost three months - the only enhancement the Twins made to the bullpen was to subtract members from it.

But it does mean that I'm probably overreacting, which is apt to happen during a pennant race. Perhaps the bullpens in previous years might very well have spoiled us. Or perhaps the bullpen is better this year than I've generally given them credit.

Whatever. I'm still not sure I totally believe it. But it will help me make it through the season.

------------------------------------

Ok, for the fellow geeks, here's how ARP works...

You start with a list of the average number of runs that score in a given situation, based on historical MLB data. For instance, a reliever comes into a game with runners on the corners and one out. The average number of runs that score in that situation is approximately 1.14 runs.

• If he escapes that inning without letting any runs score, he gets 1.14 ARP, because that's the average number of runs he prevented.
• If he escapes that inning letting just one run score, he gets 0.14 ARP, for the same reason.
• If two runs score that inning, he gets -0.86 ARP, because he let in more runs than average.
• Finally, if he gets one out (no runs score) and is then replaced by another pitcher, the average number of runs that score in the new situation (runners on corners, two outs) is approximately .46 runs. So he gets credit for the change of 0.68 ARP (because 1.14-.46=.68).

It's a valuable stat because it gets rid of all the inherited baserunner crap that relievers usually need to deal with. But it's important to note that it's value is that it tells you what has happened, and isn't terribly valuable as a predictive stat.

Go. Go. Gone?

Today's picture was supposed to be one of the kids overlooking the badlands along with a story about how the Twins are facing their own little formidable trek.

While everyone is focusing on the length of the trip and the road woes this year, I think it's worth researching just how the Twins have done on West Coast swings during the Gardenhire era.

Maybe my mind is playing tricks on me, but hasn't this team consistently had one west cost trip each year that is a complete freaking disaster? I'm trying to throw these entries together on my iPhone, so I'm a little too lazy to do the research, but it seems like every year they finish one of these trips in complete implosion mode.

For instance, the whole Hawkins & Eddie whinefest lead to one such trip I think. Last year's August swoon started on a West Coast trip. I seem to remember a 3-7 trip in early 2006, too. Those might not be something we fans remember, but the players and coaches likely do.

Anyway, that's what I was going to write about.

Instead, we got to our hotel, which had this indoor waterpark you see pictured above. You see that twisting enclosed yellow water tube that's at least five stories high? Odds are that The Boy(TM) is somewhere in there right now. And I know this because he's been going up and down it like a turbo charged machine with a touch of OCD.

But here's the thing: if you ask him, he will tell you that he's afraid of heights. And enclosed spaces. And the water. And speed. Am I missing anything? Oh yeah, the dark. That about covers it.

But he LOVES water slides, provided he tries it just once. And today his sister got him to try it and a switch flicked on. He is shivering and blue because he's been doing that slide and five story climb as fast as he can for two hours now. He's our little go-go kid. You can't help but love him.

The Twins love their go-go kid too, but they are still waiting for the switch to flick on. Carlos Gomez sat on the bench Sunday and Monday and I wonder what might have happened later on this week if Delmon Young hadn't hurt his ankle.

Gomez probably would not have been the choice to send to go to AAA when Casilla was activated, because the only backup CFers the Twins would have had were not true CFers like Young or Nick Punto.

But with Kubel hitting lefties and Ruiz available to DH, the Twins best lineup just doesn't include Gomez. What's more, it appears that Ron Gardenhire has decided that these 0-14 skids the kid has occasionally aren't exactly helping his confidence.

Sometime within the next few days when the Twins confirm that Casilla and Young are healthy, they are going to want to callup a reliever from AAA, and it's going to be interesting to see who they pick to send down. The default pick has been Ruiz, but he seem safe. Given the health history of Punto and Casilla, it would be hard to release Everett. If they haven't released Lamb yet, they're unlikely to to lose their LHed bench bat just before Sept.

Sending down Gomez would be a tad harsh, but for whatever the reason, after five months in the bigs, the switch hadn't flicked 'ON'. They clearly love him - how can you not? - but necessity might require a week-long demotion until rosters expand.

Welcome to the Land of Giants

Has anyone else noticed that the Twins are 18 games over .500? And that the Sox are 20 games over .500? That means that even if both teams play only .500 ball over the rest of the year, they'll win 90 and 91 games respectively.

So what's the new over/under on how many wins the AL Central champ or wild card winner will have? 93? 94?

Which means that if the Tigers weren't dead in the water already, they are now. To win 93 games, Detroit would need to finish the season with a 31-4 record. BTW, that team is currently 3 games below .500.

And the Yankees? Well, I won't count them out yet, but it's definitely uphill. To get to 93 wins, they'll need to go on a 27-10 roll. Even if two of the Rays, Red Sox, White Sox and Twins collapse to only 88 wins, they need to finish 23-14. If the fat lady isn't singing, she sure as hell is listening for her cue.

Seriously - low 90s for the Twins or Sox? Who woulda guessed that? Maybe someone who realized that the midwest is the land of giants. Which brings us to today's iPhone photo from the Twins Geek Family's Summer Expetition. Enjoy!

(Or enjoy as much as you can given there is a 60 ft. tall vegan watching your every move.)

On Mariners and Rotting Fish

As the Mariners roll into town today, we're reminded that sometimes the cliche about a fish stinking from the head down is accurate. And it's increasingly looking like the Twins biggest mistake at the trade deadline was targeting players on the Mariners as trade targets.

The Mariners management team is a mess. They fired their GM in July and fired their coach three days later. They replaced them both but haven't removed the interim tags from either. And as the trade deadline approached, and with a roster full of flotsam, they traded a grand total of one player - left-handed reliever Arthur Rhodes.

Among the bevy of teams they didn't trade with are the Twins. Prior to the deadline we heard that the Twins had talked to the Mariners about Adrian Beltre. Then, yesterday, Joe Christensen reported that the Twins claimed both Raul Ibanez and Jarrod Washburn, but weren't able to make a deal with the Mariners for either one.

You can think of Ibanez as being similar to Michael Cuddyer, except that he's a free agent at the end of the year. Which, for the rebuilding Mariners, means he's worth the compensatory draft picks they're likely to receive when he walks. That, at least, has some value.

But Washburn is another story. Washburn is under contract for next year, and he'll be paid $10.35 million. This for a guy with a 5-12 record and a 4.58 ERA in one of the pitching-friendliest ballparks in the majors. The Mariners should not only be willing to trade him for a warm bucket of spit, they should pay several million dollars to make it happen. If they were truly lucky enough to get the Twins to claim him on waivers, it's inconceivable that they didn't stick the Twins with that loadstone of a contract.

But even more stunning? Christensen's note that the Mariners asked for one of the Twins young starters in return for Washburn.

"In Washburn’s case, it sounds like the Twins did indeed win the claim and had
extensive talks with the Mariners. The Twins were willing to take on Washburn’s
contract, and Seattle could have dumped it on them. But the Mariners also wanted
the Twins to throw in one of their current starters. "

Seriously? So the Mariners management team wanted, in return for Washburn, a better starting pitcher who ALSO is $10 million cheaper next year? I should try that. How about I swap cars with Carl Pohlad AND he write me a $10 million check to do so. Savvy offer, that.

I can only imagine Bill Smith's reaction. I suspect it started with him staring at the cell phone speaker quizically. Followed by stammering "That's a, um, creative deal. But I think we'll pass."

(long pause)

"Is there anyone else there I can talk to?"

Real and Fabulous

“By the way, they’re real. And they’re FABULOUS.”
- from Seinfeld

Even for Twins fans, it’s been hard to accept. We find our team exceeding preseason expectations and solidly thumping the division favorites. And then we look at the standings and see the White Sox are in first place? Surely they (and not us) are an anomaly, right? After all, isn’t this the completely dysfunctional club that imploded last year for just 72 wins? We shouldn’t need to worry about them for another 90 years or so, right? And Bonnes wouldn't dream of adding a fifth straight question to this paragraph, would he?

Well, the bad news is that they’re real. If the four game sweep last month (where the Twins were outscored 40-15) didn’t convince you, maybe this will: they’ve outscored their opponents by 88 runs. That’s the third best mark in the majors, ahead of the Angels, the Devil Rays, the Yankees and even our Twins (+23).

So what changed from last year? It’s been a mixture, but the short answer is that General Manager Kenny Williams brought in some young talent that has absolutely exploded.

And that’s the REALLY bad news. Because they’re likely going to be real for several years to come.

The most interesting of that talent is on the pitching side, because Williams didn’t bring them in this year. Both John Danks and Gavin Floyd were acquired from other organizations before last season, and both spent last season struggling. And now both of them have ERAs under 3.50 and are the core of the White Sox starting rotation.

On the offensive side, the White Sox traded for an outfielder from the Diamondbacks who had batted just .214 last year. They picked up Carlos Quentin despite being damaged goods; he underwent shoulder surgery in October. Interestingly, a week before that trade the Pioneer Press reported that Quentin’s right-handed bat had been mentioned in trade talks with the Twins for Matt Garza. We might well have ended up with him instead of Delmon Young. Since getting his shoulder repaired, the 25-year-old is hitting .279 and slugging .550 with 27 home runs and 78 RBI. Imagine THAT hitting behind Justin Morneau.

An even stranger pickup happened in January, when the White Sox handed Alexei Ramirez a four-year, $4.75 million contract after he defected from Cuba. (Is this a great country, or what?) Ramirez struggled early, hitting just .114 at the beginning of May. Just how hot has he been since? Hot enough to raise that batting average all the way to .315 in less than 3 months. He’s also just 26 years old, and the Sox aren’t going to need to go to arbitration with him until 2012. His only flaw might be his glove at second base.

These guys have joined some of the White Sox we know and love (to hate) who are also having huge years. The White Sox spent most of last season debating whether they should trade or sign Mark Buehrle. They chose to sign him, and he’s on pace for his eighth straight season of throwing 200+ innings. Many Sox fans felt like Jermaine Dye was robbed of the MVP award two years ago by Morneau, and they’ll likely get a chance to kvetch again given his .314 batting average, 24 HR and 64 RBI. AJ Pierzynski is hitting .288 with a little power and plenty of attitude. And Jim Thome, after struggling earlier in the year, has hit 19 home runs, driven in 59 RBI, and is getting on base at a .383 clip.

Finally, the White Sox bullpen has been formidable this year, too. Their collective ERA is just 3.15, which is good for fourth in the major leagues. But lately there have been some concerns. Closer Bobby Jenks has just returned from about a month off with a sore back, and has been effective, but not dominant. Set-up man Scott Linebrink is out with a shoulder injury, and Matt Thornton was unavailable for times last week because of a sore back. In their absence the Sox relied on Octavio Dotel whose wildness can be deadly to both teams on the field. We’ll probably also see DJ Carrasco, a 31-year-old who has been effective this year at both AAA and the majors. Still, if there’s one advantage to facing the White Sox right now, it’s that the Twins might get to test the Sox’ bullpen depth.

Twins Takes
That four game sweep the Twins suffered at the hands of the White Sox is a lasting memory, and you can be forgiven if you think that the White Sox have manhandled the Twins all season. But prior to that series, do you know what the Twins record was versus the White Sox this year?

It was 4 wins and 3 losses.

BTW, if any of you are going to the Twins game on Wednesday, be sure to get there early and watch the pregame festivities. I'll be throwing out the first pitch.

Shopping List: Right-handed Third Basemen

Just ten more rumor-mongering days until the trade deadline. If the Twins truly scribbled a right-handed third baseman at the top of Santa's list, it's nice to know he has some options beyond the overpriced Adrian Beltre. Let's see what we come up with and rank them in terms of likeliness. But first, the rules:

1. The player needs to be a third baseman.
2. The player needs to bat right-handed.
3. The player needs to be on a struggling team.

#4 Garret Atkins - Colorado Rockies
At first glance, he looks like the cream of the crop, and perhaps a better acquisition than Adrian Beltre. He's 28, he's hitting .305 with 14 home runs, and he won't be a free agent until after the new ballpark opens. But there are two issues.

First, it isn't clear the Rockies want to trade him. There were plenty of rumors about him being available (mostly to the Indians) early in the season. But that seems to have changed because he's having a great year and his supposed replacement, Ian Stewart, is only hitting .238 while the Rockies try him out at second base. (Oh, and forget about Stewart. He bats left-handed). Plus, the Rockies, despite being dismal, are only six games back in the even more dismal NL West.

And the second issue is that Atkins hasn't been the same player away from Coors (Is it still called that? I don't care. I'm going with it.) Field. Over the last three years he's posted a 948 OPS in Coors and a 792 OPS at other ballparks. This year those differences are even more pronounced. So to acquire Atkins, the Twins would need to dig deep, and there are enough doubts about him that I can't picture them doing that.

#3 Kevin Kouzmanoff - San Diego Padres
Kouzmanoff appears to be the kind of guy that is only rarely available. He's cheap (won't be eligible for arbitration until 2010), he can hit(.276 with 12 home runs), and most importantly for the Twins, he brings back the tradition of having a long name with a "z" on the lineup card every day. He's only available because the Padres have another young stud prospect third baseman named Chase Headley that Kouzmanoff is blocking.

Also, the teams match up fairly well. Just yesterday Ken Rosenthal reported that the Padres would conceivably trade him for a young outfielder. And if Cuddyer gets healthy you could argue that the Twins have one too many of those. You could also argue that the Padres could use some young pitching with both Greg Maddux and Randy Wolfe on the roster.

The concerns? Well, just what is Kevin Kouzmanoff? He's 26, so he's not young. He's brutalized left-handed pitchers so far, slugging over .500 for his career. But he hasn't hit or even got on-base enough versus right-handers (just a .309 career OBP), and he now has over 640 at-bats against them. That doesn't seem like a guy you turn over third base to full-time, let alone trade Carlos Gomez or Denard Span for. And if you're going to acquire a guy to platoon at third base with Buscher, why not go with the devil you know....

#2 Matt Macri - Rochester Red Wings
A funny thing happens when you pull up the stats of all MLB third basemen and sort in descending order by OPS. Matt Macri ends up 5th on that list. Macri fits our criteria and he's in the organization, and he's 26 years old, and he hit .409 with a 1000 OPS vs. left-handers over 22 at-bats during his June call-up.

Strangely, that dominance versus southpaws has been completely absent at Rochester this year. There, he's hitting just .219, and has a much better average against right-handed batters. Both numbers seem like anomolies, but I can't tell you what the actual figure is likely to be.

If a trade is not made, it will be interesting to see if Ron Gardenhire would rather have Lamb as a left-handed pinch-hitter or Macri as a right-handed platoon at third base. I suspect he would pick Macri, mostly because he hates benching a veteran like Lamb, and would just as soon release him. But I'm not sure that would be the right call.

#1 Casey Blake - Cleveland Indians
We always talk about how interdivisional trades are rare, but this might be the kind that could make sense. The Indians aren't going anywhere, and Blake will be a free agent at the end of the year. If anyone would balk at a trade, it would likely be the Twins, for fear that the player they lost to the Indians would come back to bite them several times every year. You know, kind of like Casey Blake has.

Of the players on this list, Blake is the most seamless fit. He doesn't need to be much more than a platoon player, so the Twins can continue to use Buscher. He also has some positional flexibility, even playing shortstop once this year. And he's socking lefties silly. He's hitting .323 against them this year, and slugging over .500, and while the batting average doesn't match his track record, the slugging does. Over the last three years he's slugged .509 versus left-handers in 411 at-bats.

Odds are, someone is going to end up with Blake on the trade deadline. Considering how good a fit he is, I'll be a little suprised if that team ends up not being the Twins.

Distractable

I'm personally of the opinion that rumors about the Twins being interested in Adrian Beltre are a red herring, meant to distract us and the league while they search for a dominant eighth inning arm. But (and The Voice of Reason will certainly back me up on this) I am absolutely emminently distractable. I am the definition of Short Attention Span Theater.

Which, by the way, nobody mentions, but was fantsatic. Is also launched Jon Stewart's career, and rightly so, because that is not the kind of show that just anyone can pull off. And why does MTV get blasted for no longer having videos, but Comedy Central gets off scott-free for no longer having anything liks SAST?

See what I mean? Absolutely, emminently, distractable.

Adrian Beltre
So let's start with the rumur du jour, er, week. I gotta say, assuming there is at least a little truth to it, this rumor should be encouraging as hell to Twins fans. This sort of rumor was in short supply the last couple years, and it's further evidence that Bill Smith isn't afraid to spend some money and take some risks. Terry Ryan got a bum rap in that regard for the most part, but Smith has made some bold and creative moves. Plus, it's comforting to see that the extra money that the team didn't spend on free agents might be available for a mid-season pickup, and isn't sunk into paying overruns at the new ballpark.

Beltre hasn't been the superstar the Mariners expected when they threw $64 million at him in 2005. That probably shouldn't be a surprise, because prior to 2004, Beltre was the poster boy for the young, incredibly talented but dissappointing athelete. Then came 2004, Beltre's contract year, in which he suddenly showed some plate discipline and slugged .629 (blink. blink.), earning him a second place finish in the National League MVP voting. He hasn't shown that discipline since. Nor has he slugged over .500.

You might think that the Mariners would be looking to jettison a contract like that, just like they did with Richie Sexson. But salaries have rocketed upwards since 2004, so that $12 million a year he makes per year is easier to justify, especially with third base being a thin position. Add in his defense (he won a gold glove last year), his age (he's only 29 years old), and the fact that 2009 would also be a contract year like 2004 was, and he starts to make more sense.

The Package
Of course, the $12 million question is what you give up for him. La Velle E Neal suggested that the price might be similar to what the Athletics recently received for Joe Blanton, which he interprets as being equivalent to one of the Twins young starters and some other prospects.

I'm not sure how he draws that comparison. Two of the players are prospects only in a nominal sense. Josh Outman is a Double-A pitcher who has already been switched to the bullpen. And Matt Spencer is an outfielder in High A ball whose career trajectory is aimed towards being a decent left-handed fourth outfielder for someone's bench.

And the "prize" player the Athletics received? Second baseman Adrian Cardnenas is certainly a prospect, but he is only in High-A ball. Last year he ranked #76 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list with a note that his ETA to the majors was 2010. For comparison purposes, Deolis Guerrara, the 18-year-old pitcher the Twins received as the fourth player in the Johan Santana trade, was listed as #35 on the same list with the same ETA.

I'm pretty sure that if Bill Smith can have Beltre for Guerrera and a couple of the Twins nominal prospects, that deal would already be done.

Brian Buscher
You can bet that the package the Twins offered Seattle included Brian Buscher, because there is no longer room on this team for Buscher if the trade is made. Beltre isn't a platoon player, and his contract goes through 2010, by which time Buscher is almost 29 years old, which is, well, even older than Brian Buscher is now, which is saying something.

The Mariners probably don't have much interest in Buscher. Buscher might be attractive to some teams, but the Mariners seem to be pushing Matt Tuiasosopo fairly quickly. He's just 22 years old and has graduated to AAA this year, and his .256 batting average disguises that he does some good things in terms of getting on base and having a little power.

One the one hand, that looks to me like someone they might like to season a bit before throwing onto the major league grill. They could afford that luxury with soemone like Buscher on the roster, especially because Buscher is left-handed and could allow Tuiasosopo some platoon time at the beginning of his major league career. Of course, the same could be said for holding onto Beltre for another year. Or for signing a low-end free agent to provide an insurance policy at third base for 2009. Now that Bill Bavasi is gone, I suspect they have thought of those options.

So the Twins ideal package probably isn't something the Mariners are interested in. But I'd be shocked if the Twins didn't have a combination of minor leaguers that could entice the Mariners to save themselves the $16 million that Beltre is owed for the remainder of his contract. How far the Twins are willing to go is likely dependent on their other options, and there are some, and a few might even be a better fit than Beltre.

Which, strangely enough, is what this entry was supposed to be about. Instead, it's been about Beltre and the Athletics trade. See what I mean about distractable?

(But that means that we get to research some of the other options later this week. Yeay. See you then.)