The Impact of Terry Ryan

Make no mistake - this is bad. How bad? As bad as losing Torii Hunter or Johan Santana?

I suspect a statistical study could show it is. In fact, I've read just such a study. Several years ago a reader sent me a statistical analysis that compared win totals to payroll. Using regression analysis he derived a formula that turned dollars into wins, and then he compared how teams had performed to how they should have performed given their payroll.

His conclusion? That Ryan was worth about $45M over his time as GM. And that number has undoubtedly increased.

This year Ryan has come under unprecedented criticism, the majority of it misdirected. Critics focus on the number of players that haven't worked out, citing names like Bret Boone or Tony Batista, as if these players were ever anything more than low-cost gambles or role players.

We cannont forget that money is always the biggest consideration and limitation with this franchise. It has to be. That was a truth that Ryan publicly denied but embraced with every trade and minor league promotion. He might have believed promotion from within and a productive farm system was the best way to build a team regardless of payroll restrictions, but it's not like he really had a choice.

So don't kid yourself - this not a good thing.

How bad it is remains to be seen. Ryan was quick to minimize his role and credit others and there is ample evidence that he leaves behind a strong organization. Critics might point to a lack of major league ready hitters, but you can’t ignore the pitching that has been prepared, or the hitters that the engine has already produced. When looking holistically at the organization – the scouting, the farm system, the coaching and the players – the Twins aren’t in a much worse place moving forward then they were two days ago.

And, to be fair, the trade deadline fiasco might have been an indication that the “lack of enthusiasm” that Ryan mentioned numerous times yesterday might have been spilling over into his work. The Twins needed to move decisively in a direction that week, and instead wound up choosing a middle path that looks like the worst possible one.

Finally, all indication are that the Twins have chosen a suitable successor in Bill Smith. Face it – a nationwide search of ex-GMs wasn’t going to turn up an ideal candidate to lead a low-payroll team. Suggestions that Steve Phillips, the former GM of the Mets, would somehow be more credible to lead a team with the Twins payroll constraints than Ryan’s assistant GM are ludicrous. For better or worse, the Twins next GM needed to be a second-in-command from a successful small market team, which means it was either Smith or some guy from the A’s. Why not Smith?

Given his replacement, the organization, and some signs of decline, losing Ryan may not be as bad as losing a big name star. But nobody, not Hunter or Santana or Mauer or Morneau, has had the positive impact on this franchise that Ryan has over the last ten years. That should be his legacy.

And Now For Something Completely Different

You may have noticed I haven't been writing much for the last week, and that's because I wanted to try something I've had in the back of my mind for about 20 years. That's how long I've gotten together with friends to watch sports, which invariably turns into a conversation about sports and life. So last weekend for the Vikes home opener, we set up some mics, recorded it, and this week I've been battling audacity to try and turn it into something listenable. You can find it at:

http://media.switchpod.com/users/jbonnes/070909Falcons.mp3

It's about 15 mintues long and our conversation focuses on lot on Joey Harrington and razor blades, strangely enough. On the one hand, I find it pretty entertaining and funny. On the other hand, it's pretty clear I need a LOT more practice with Audacity, the mixer and the mics we got. Just keep the volume knob on your MP3 player handy. Trust me.

I'd appreciate any feedback you have. I liked doing it, and think it could get a lot better, but it is a lot more work than I thought, and I'm going to need to evaluate just how committed to it I want to be.

Try this instead...

Sorry, but the end of a losing streak still isn't enough to take the focus off the Vikes today, at least in my mind. I'm going to be a littlele busy with a podcast experiment tonight, so check out Vikesgeek.com for his excellent take.

Question the Easy

It seems I can't hear a summary of the Twins system without It. Corporate media, bloggers, sports radio all have to mention It. It has gone from symbolic to distraction to bad habit. And it's long past time to start the pendulum swing the other direction on It.

I'm talking about the signing of Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson for a combined $4 million dollars. It's the default criticism of the franchise these days, and it breaks my heart to say that it's parroted among blogs and baseball sites where one hopes for some real analysis. Instead of being viewed as what it was - a low-cost, early season gamble to insure against too much reliance on young pitching - it's become the #1 reason that the Twins aren't returning to the playoffs for the fifth time in six years.

So let's touch touch ground again quickly, shall we?

1) If you want to rip those signings, you must include Silva in the triumverate. He was every bit the gamble, and maybe a bigger one considering his salary and his dismal 2006. In spring training, he was the one which drew the most concern.

Nobody, including the Twins, expected all three to pitch 30+ games each. If one paid out, they broke even on the combined $8M they paid them. If two paid out, they were ahead. Silva justified that salary all by himself.

2) The signings were abll about depth, which just happened to be THE key area that bit the Twins in the butt this year. Unfortunately, the Twins just invested in depth on the wrong side of the ball.

But last offseason, that seemed ludicrous. The Twins had every regular starter returning and had one of the top offenses in the American League after the All-Star break. On the other hand, the pitching had lost two of their top pitchers and was legitimately looking at three gaping holes behind Johan Santana and (ironically) Boof Bonser.

3) I have yet to see someone show me exactly how the $4M they spent on those two guys would’ve improved the offense this year. (And PLEASE don't throw a diamond-in-the-rough name at me like Dmitri Young. Young was only still in the league because Jim Bowden knew him, and Bowden brought him into camp the same way the Twins brought in Ken Harvey - as a 3rd option if everything went wrong.)

4) There’s now plenty of evidence that the $3M they threw at Ortiz wouldn’t have been spent otherwise – that Ryan stretched the budget just to make sure. In fact, while I have trouble identifying how the Ortiz deal hurt the club considerably this year, it's legacy might be more significant in the future. It may have hurt their draft strategy this year (though certainly nobody from the Twins would fess up to that) and it likely gave Ryan another hurdle when looking for an impact bat at the trade deadline.

5) Oh, and let’s not forget that the problem this year hasn’t been the starting pitching. In fact, it can be argued that the development Scott Baker and Matt Garza have shown is a result of starting the season in the minors. God knows making the team out of spring training hasn’t helped Boof.

It's similar to the criticism the Twins face to this day for keeping Johan Santana in the bullpen (a move I was highly critical of, by the way). It's easy to get lathered up about what this team might have done in 2002 if he was in the rotation. But then you realize you're criticizing an organization for how it developed a multiple Cy Young Award winner. And that just makes you sound kinda, you know, stupid.

The Ortiz/Ponson criticism is starting to become an embarrassment to the blogger community. It’s everything that we used to criticize corporate media for. It’s bad enough that we keep ripping a gamble that everyone knew was a gamble because it didn’t work out. It’s downright ridiculous that we keep attributing an entire season of failure to a dozen bad starts in April and a couple of million dollars that probably would not have been spent otherwise.

We do it in part because it's something that we could have predicted. Great. Pat yourself on the back for successfully reading a career statistical chart. So did the rest of the league - that's why those guys were so cheap.

But mostly we do It because it's easy and because we've heard it so much. Let's quit taking the easy way out. We're better than that.

2008 GM Cheat Sheet (Part II)

Ok, time for the second half of the exercise. Here are your options. You're not limited to them, and feel free to push back on the price, but I'm not completely pulling these out of thin air. This is a pretty good guess to what the market will bear....

(Oh, and I apologize in advance for how far down below this the table is. It has to do with how blogger handles white space. Which, by the way is "not well". It's there. Just scroll down a bit.)

Position	Name	$	Options
CF			· Re-signing Hunter will cost approximately $16M/year for several years. · You can offer Jason Tyner arbitration for approximately $1 million. · You can promote Denard Span, AAA CF hitting .252/.302/.359 and pay him $.4M · Other free agent CFs and their approximate cost… o Aaron Rowand - $12M o Andruw Jones - $10M o Mike Cameron - $8M o Corey Patterson - $4M o Darin Erstad - $2M
3B			· You can hand it back to Nick Punto (who is already listed at MI) and just list his replacement here for approximately $1M. · You can hand it to Brian Buscher (who is already at CI) and just list his replacement here for approximately .5M · Other free agent 3B and their approximate cost…. o Alex Rodriguez - $28M o Mike Lowell - $12M o Mike Lamb - $7M o Russel Branyan, Morgan Ensberg, Abraham Nunez - $2-3M
DH			· You can bring back Rondell White for…oh, who are we kidding? Nobody is bringing back Rondell White. · Other possible free agent DHs and their approximate cost…. o Adam Dunn - $15M o Moises Alou, Geoff Jenkins, Bobby Abreu - $8M o Jeff Conine, Sean Casey - $6M o Mike Sweeney - $4M
5th starter			· Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey or Glen Perkins will cost about $400,000. · Re-signing Carlos Silva will likely cost $4-5M · If you want more experience, free agent Ps and their approximate cost…. o Curt Schilling - $15M o Kenny Rogers, Freddy Garcia - $8M
4th OF			· You can offer Jason Tyner arbitration for approximately $750,000. · A veteran free agent will cost about $1M
Last Bench			· A fifth outfielder free agent will cost about $.5M · You can promote someone from the minors like Garret Jones, Matt Tolbert or Denard Span for $.4M · Another middle infield free agent will cost about $.8M · A left-handed bench bat with some power will cost about $1M.
MR			· Bringing back Rincon will cost about $2 million · You can promote a pitcher from the minors, like Glen Perkins, Carmen Cali or even start Francisco Liriano again in the bullpen for $.4M · A veteran free agent will cost anywhere from $.5M to $2.5M depending on how much success they’ve had recently.
Long Relief			· You can promote a pitcher from the minors, like Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, or Brian Duensing for $.4M · A long relief veteran will probably cost around $1M
TOTAL		$	· Remember, it needs to be under $30 M unless you’re going to start searching the cushions of Carl’s couch.

How’d you do? Did you improve the offense? Did you add power? Are you relying on young pitching? And, most importantly, is your boss going to be happy with how much you spent?

Great. Now let us know by commenting below. (Unless, of course, it involves Sidney Ponson. Then you might want to try again.)

2008 Twins GM Cheat Sheet (Part 1)

So, you’re a little dissatisfied, huh? Thinking you could do a better job? Well, to be a major league GM, you could either:

a) put some time in at the major league level, probably schlepping around as a scout for a dozen years or so years, stay on top of the free agent market, and show you can negotiate with players’ agents. Or…

b) you could just swing by MNGameDay.com.

It looks like you chose (b), so we know you’re smart, but let’s see how smart. Your job is to create a competitive 2008 team while keeping the payroll under $80 million (a pretty realistic guess as to next year’s salary level).

We’ll give you the tools you need. Below you’ll find lists of the positions, the players who will most likely be back, their approximate salaries, and a list of the other assumption we’re making in case you want to challenge them.

Then you’ll find your area. We’ll list the open positions and some of the options you have (including how much they cost). You can build your own team and compare it to the job Terry Ryan does this offseason. Just make sure the total is under $80 million, because your boss isn’t known as the freest spender in the world.

The Lineup

The numbers for a lot of these players are estimates, since Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer and eligible for arbitration, but they’re close. If you’re able to sign them to long-term deals, you might be able to knock a million off of that, but that’s about the most you can expect. We’ve included Alexi Casilla, since the Twins seem sold on him. We put Kubel in left field, but you could move him to DH, or just leave him off if you like. And Nick Punto is listed as the middle infield backup a little later.

The remaining spaces are center field, third base, and designated hitter for you to play with, and we’ve spent $23.05 million.

Starting Pitching

We’ll assume that Silva’s spot is open, though you can re-sign him later. We’re keeping Bonser in the rotation for now, since he’s certainly passable as a 4th starter. Those salaries bring our grand total to $38 million.

Bench
Punto and Redmond are both under contract, so they’re playing someplace. For now, we put Brian Buscher in a Jeff-Cirillo-type role – if you don’t like it, move him around as you like, including back to AAA. Those salaries bump us up to $41.25M

Bullpen

You could quibble about whether Guerrier should be included here. We included him despite being eligible for arbitration because he looks like a relative bargain, and we have enough spots to fill. The additional salaries bring us up to $49.65 million.

Summary
You’re 2/3 of the way there! Seventeen of the 25 roster spots are spoken for, and $49.65 million is spent. That leaves about $30 million to fill eight spots. Take a stab at what you think you want to do and we'll be back tomorrow with some more specific options and salaries. We'll see you then.

Twins, something. Royals, nothing.

Scotty,

About 80 years from now you're going to die. And as you wait for a decision, I want you to know that tonight is fair game. While you are standing in all your naked judgement before The Almighty, it's valid to point out to him that Mike Sweeney:

1) shouldn't have even been on that team and
b) simply failed to get any real wood on a pop-up.

And, while you're at it, you may want to point out that (god damn it) you deserved better than that given the last two years that you've struggled through.

And I, for one, will be right there with you. And so will 26,000 Twins fans.

Sincerely,
TG

On History, Performance and Disappointments

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
- George Santaya

You’ve probably heard this historical quote before, but the truth is that Santaya never said it, or at least that is not what he wrote. What he actually wrote was “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Santaya wasn’t even talking about history – he was talking about change and retention.

Which means that the quote most often used to justify studying history isn’t itself accurate. Apparently, we’re open to learning from history, so long as we can mold it to say what we want it to say.

I’ve felt the same way over the last month reading the various requiems by bloggers, sportswriters and talk show hosts about the Twins disappointing season. They differ on the importance of various mistakes, but they seem united in one point – that the Twins should have been able to foresee this stuff. And that the Twins need to learn from their mistakes so they don’t make them again.

I’m not so sure. As I look at the performances of many of the players and compare them to my own expectations, I see a lot of gambles that didn’t work out, and very few that did. In short, I see a fair amount of bad luck, and not something that can necessarily be learned from.

Rather than go through the various criticisms, try doing the following: name all the Twins who disappointed you this season and compare them to all the ones who outperformed your expectations. Go ahead, try it.

My list of those who clearly performed worse than expectations (because of injuries or otherwise) includes Nick Punto, Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Jason Bartlett, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Denys Reyes, Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Glen Perkins and Boof Bonser.

And here are the ones who have exceeded expectations: Torii Hunter, Scott Baker, Carlos Silva and Matt Garza.

It doesn’t have anything to do with signing mediocrity or over-emphasizing speed or trusting veterans too much. It has to do with too many bad years by too many players. About the only thing we might be able to learn is that expectations for some of these guys may need to be altered. But for most of them, I’m not even sure that’s appropriate.

So I’d urge readers to be careful when reading or listening to these orations. Ask yourself if what they’re proposing is really the lesson we should learn. Or whether we should instead listen to a different quote attributed to Santaya:

History is a pack of lies about events that never happened told by people who weren't there.

Bonnes Family Vacation: Day 2

So, this is a new one.

I've spent more than my fair share of time in bars, and like to think that I've done just about everything there is to do in one, but I've never blogged in one. Yet, here I am, in our hotel sports bar, a fairly happening place, literally bellied up to the bar so I can reach the keyboard on my Dell laptop.

I'm down here because my family is sleeping. And they're sleeping because they have all sucked the life out of each other by 9:45 tonight. And that's because we have completed our second day of our family vacation.

So maybe a better question is why am I NOT sleeping. And it's because I want to stretch a bit, write about something a little different than baseball. I'm a little wary, because usually when I write about my family, I have a story to tell, but tonight I'm writing because there isn't a story to tell. I'm writing because I'm sure there are a dozen stories from the last 48 hours, and I'm wondering how I missed them. It's almost like I'm writing to punish myself, but it's more to remind myself to keep a storyteller's eye on things.

And one such story should probably be the drive here to Chicago. I cannot tell you why, but it was incredibly important to me to drive here - to force my family into a seven hour drive. And I have no idea why. It's not like I remember anything important happening in the care on the endless trips my family took every other summer out west.

What I remember is trivial. Like I remember my brother and I taking every available pillow (I think there were four of them) and sticking them into the foot wells of the back seat. That way, one of us would sleep on the large back seat (no bucket seats in those old station wagons) and the other one would sleep on the floor of the back seat. The pillows were important, because they leveled the back floor a bit so the enormous hump that ran through the back of the car wasn't sticking into the middle of your back (too much). So it wasn't because I thought something important would happen for them.

Mostly, I think I wanted to drive because I really like to drive. I'd like to say it makes me think things out, and that's partly true, but again, I can't remember any particularly illuminating insights I've ever had while driving. I just like the feeling of being in the car, of going somewhere, of things changing, and I want the kids to eventually gain that too. So, naturally, I'm dragging them on these little death marches.

On second thought, maybe that isn't the best idea, huh?

But it seems to be working, especially for The Boy™, who has been especially happy. In fact, he's been annoyingly happy. Keeping him focused is nearly always a challenge, but this week it's been impossible. He gets so excited about a simple concept like Dunkin Donuts for breakfast that when the big stuff comes (like going on a speedboat tour of Chicago) he doesn't even know what he's doing.

It's been tragically funny to watch him interact with The Voice of Reason™ in this condition. Today, they literally had the following conversation as he prepared to go out to the swimming pool. I'm going to portray it from his point-of-view:

TB: Mom, where are my (swimming) goggles?
TVOR: Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz. Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz your buzzy-buzz.
(The Boy™ wanders around the hotel room for twenty seconds wondering what he's doing, then remembers he's looking for his goggles.)
TB: (a little more urgently): Mom, have you seen my goggles?
TVOR: Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz. You need to buzzy-buzz your sandals. Get your sandals on.
(The Boy™ spins around the room for 5 more seconds, clues in that he's supposed to be getting his sandals, and then realizes that Mom is still missing the point.)
TB: My GOGGLES. Where are my goggles?
TVOR: I. HAVE. YOUR. GOGGLES. (long pause) YOU. NEE-EED. TO PUT ON. YOUR SANDALS.

By the third time she has repeated the same sentence, she's speaking slowly. And loudly. She's looking him in the eye. And waving the goggles in front of his nose. She is using all possible resources at her disposal to get the point across. I expect the next step was for her to find a conference room with one of those giant Post-It™ pads and illustrate it for him.

Of course, I find this endlessly amusing in part because I've been doing this to her for years. This Sunday morning I needed to pick up The Chatty Chatty Princess™ from a slumber party, and so I asked TVOR if she had the invitation so I could find the house's address. And she looked at me like I had just grown a third eye.

"It's on the kitchen table. I found it. I brought it to you. I asked you if you would go get her. You said yes. Then I handed you the invitation. You said thanks. Then you set it down on the kitchen table."

I, of course, remember none of this, because I was reading the paper at the time. And I have no doubt that everything she said was true. My talking point now is that for the last seventeen years I've been preparing her for having her own small boy. I'm sure her point is that he's my freaking son, and she should have been a little more careful about selecting a less shallow gene pool.

But here's the punchline. The invitation was on the kitchen table, but I forgot it there when I went to pick her up, so I had to call TVOR from outside the house and confirm the damn address anyway.

Hey, look, I found a story. That was fun. Maybe, just maybe, we'll try again tomorrow night.

The Untold Story of How Joe Helped Nick Out of his Slump

by Twins Geek

As Joe Mauer waited his turn for the batting cage, he noticed Patrick Reusse weaving his way towards him. “Hey Joe!” his gravel voice squeaked. “How many RBI do you think you’ll drive in this season?”
“Oh, I don’t know. I don’t really keep track.”
”What? Then how do you compare yourself to other players?”
“By height.”

Thinking he had missed part of the conversation (again), Reusse wandered away to ask Morneau when he was going to start hitting left-handers again. From his shadow, little Nick Punto suddenly emerged. “Hey, Joe. Can I ask you something?”
“Sure thing, Ned. Shoot.” said Joe kindly.
“It’s Nick, Joe”, replied Punto. “Did you ever trouble getting excited about baseball?”
“No, I've never had that problem,” Joe replied thoughtfully. “Why?”
“Forget it. I didn't think you'd understand”, Nick dejectedly. But he fired back up almost immediately. “I’ve got to hit again. I’ve just got to!”
“Nick, this isn't Russia. Is this Russia? This isn't Russia, is it?"
“Um, no…”
“I didn't think so. Now, the thing is, do you want to hit?”
“Well, yeah. If I don’t, I might lose my job,“ lamented Nick. “I mean, how am I going to support my family?”
“Whoa, Nate. I’m not even a free agent yet. I helped you find that jewelry endorsement, and I bought you that Coke yesterday. I can’t pay for everything…”
“No, no,” Nick quickly responded as Joe entered the batting cage. “It’s just, I really, really, want to hit again. I’m tired of grounding out weakly to shortstop. I’m not ready for my career to end and to spend the rest of my life selling baseball stuff from some warehouse.”
“What’s the matter with selling baseball stuff?” wondered Joe. “I own two warehouses full of QuickSwings.™”
“I notice you don’t spend a lot of time at them.”
“I’m not sure where they are.”

After a couple of practice swings, Joe looked back at Nick, and seemingly made a decision. “I like you, Nancy”, he said.
“That's Nick, Joe”, replied Nick.
“Nick. I’m going to give you a little advice. There's a force in the universe that makes things happen.” And out of his back pocket, he pulled a headband. “All you have to do is get in touch with it,” he said as he put the headband around his head and... over his eyes? “Stop thinking.” He picked up the bat. “Hear nothing. Feel nothing.” He brought the back bat, cocked, waiting for the pitch. “Just let things happen and be….”
The pitching machine clicked. The ball fired.
“…the ball.”
The arms swung. The wrists uncoiled. With a holy smack the ball flew straight up the middle.
“That was kind of incredible, Joe!” exclaimed Nick.
“Thank you very little, replied Joe. “Here, you try it.”
“Pardon me?” said Nick.
“You try it,” Said Joe, handing Nick the bat and blindfold. “Just relax. Find your center.”
Nick lined himself up at the plate. Resting the bat on his leg, he put the blindfold over his eyes. “Just picture the pitch. Picture it” quietly coached Joe.
Nick picked up the bat, raising his arms behind his head.
“Turn off all the sound. Just let it happen,” continued Joe. “Be the ball,” he whispered. “Be the ball, Nick.”
The machine clicked. The ball fired – right past Punto with the bat still cocked behind his head.
“You're not being the ball, Nick,” scolded Joe.
“Well, it's difficult with you talking like that,” spat back Nick.
“OK. I'm not talking,” said Joe soothingly. “I’ve stopped talking. I'm not talking now. Be the ball.”
The machine clicked. The ball fired. But this time, the bat connected – and the ball dribbled weakly to the left of the pitching machine.
Punto whipped off the blindfold. “Where did it go?” he asked.
“Right in the warehouse,” sighed Joe. “It's okay. We'll work on it.”

The Twins Geek writes a couple time per week about Minnesota Sports at TwinsGeek.com. And on his deathbed, he’ll receive total consciousness. So he’s got that going for him. Which is nice.

Meeting Up With An Old Friend

To be totally honest, it's been a couple of years since I've paid close attention to the Vikings, for various reasons. Their "brand" of football isn't purely to blame, though it certainly made watching them on Sunday afternoons less compelling. But it's also been about the stage of life I'm in, and maybe moreso about the stage of life my entire group of friends is now in.

Twenty years ago, Sunday afternoons were comletely reserved for the guys, and that habit stayed with us into early marriages, in part because our wives were either interested in the game or at least understood that we were only going to be minimally available for those three hours. And if enough beer was consumed, mabye the 3-6 hours after that.

Kids, however, have no such interest or knowledge. These days a game is interrupted about 20 times, and any house that hosts needs to accomodate twice as many people as it used to. Add to that the increased responsibilities most of us have on the weekend and instead of watching 16 games per year in their entirety, I'm more likely to catch three.

But I think that might change this year. And so, it was more than a little anticipation I sat down on Friday night with a beer, my TV and a Tivo to reaquaint myself with an old friend. And I gotta say, I wasn't dissappointed.

You gotta remember, the Jets are a good team that plays in the AFC, which automatically makes them a better team than the Vikings going into this game. Add on that it's a game on the road, and in New York which can provide all kinds of delicious distractions, and a dominating first half is a real positive sign.

But the preseason is made for evealuating players, not teams, so let's jump into a some Thumbs Up and Thumbs Downs

Thumbs Up - Chad Greenway
The interception return for a touchdown was the play that most people will be talking about, but he made a play earlier in the quarter that I thought was more impressive. On another safety valve pass, Greenway sniffed it out from at least ten yards behind the line of scrimmage and made an open field tackle behind the line of scrimmage. I haven't seen a linebacker on the Vikings make that play in the 21st century. Please God, keep this kid healthy.

Thumbs Down - The rest of the linebackers
That may be a little harsh on EJ Henderson, who only embarassed himself once. On the other hand, I watched Ben Leber run himself out of position at least three times. Once, he managed to somehow make ten yards behind the line of scrimmage, on the opposite side of the field, at exactly the time that the running back was cutting back to where he should have been. I honestly don't know how he got out of position so quickly. I think he might have teleported.

Thumbs Up - Adrian Peterson
He showed us a spin, speed in running away from most of the defense, and the ability to deliver a blow - on his first play. Giggle.

Thumbs Down - Marcus James
Any pressure the Jets got came from the Vikings' right side, including the one that resulted in Bollinger's fumble. I was legitimately embarassed for James on the play.

Thumbs Up - Ray Edwards
I suspect he'll be called for approximately seven offside penalties this year - someone get that guy a decaf. On the other hand, hold that thought - two big plays behind the line of scrimmage and some consistent pressure from a defensive end is something this team desperately needs.

Thumbs Down - Alex Reyes
He's not kicking field goals, right? And he's not punting either? So his ONLY job is to kick it deep on kickoffs, right? Well, then, he should probably do that.

Thumbs Up - Aundrae Allison
First, I think he deserves some props for being the first person in the history of the world to spell Andre in a phonetically responsible way. And second, I just plain like a guy who takes a kick and runs it straight up the field. I don't care if he breaks a single tackle all year. I'm being totally serious.

Thumbs Down - Cedric Griffin
You know why they picked on you Cedric? Because you can't play physically. That's why.

Which means you can't just give the receiver ten yards and expect to tackle him before he gains a single yard after the catch. after the catch. On the touchdown play, I don't even blame Griffin much for missing the tackle. But he wasn't even in the camera's view from the beginning of that play until the receiver had the ball. He started ten yards back, then he backpedaled. The Vikings sent six guys at the QB and he didn't need to take even three steps back. He completed a nine yard pass doing nothing more than standing up and rifling the ball.

And that's enough for the night, and the weekend. We'll see you Monday, when we'll be back talking about the Twins.

Touching Base

Hey everyone,

Sorry I haven't written much this week. Part of the reason is that I'm really struggling to the the Sept GameDay issue out the door, but it's also because there have been two unforeseen developments that have gobbled up time, Pac Man style.

1. I got an iPhone on Friday. I haven't found a time waster this impactful since, well, probably since blogging. I just love the damn thing but I spend the whole weekend learning all it's little secrets and battling AT&T to get it activated.

2. Flash Gordon was released on DVD last week. Words cannot express my delight at spending Tuesday night watching this with my kids. All you really need to know about it is that if you check out the IMDB.com page, the lead actor doesn't have a submitted picture. Nor does the lead actress. Or fully 2/3 of the cast.

And yet it was one of the most delightfully bad movies of my youth, and after watching it almost 30 years later, it's both better and worse than I remembered. I don't know how a movie with such terrible special effects, forced dialogue and automaton acting can still be so entertaining. Add all that to a soundtrack from Queen and you can almost come to the conclusion that they were trying to make another Rocky Horror Picture Show. And frankly, I think the theater dorks just beat the geeks to the punch on that one.

So anyway, I'm not writing baseball tonight. But by Monday I'll have the 2008 GM Cheat Sheet up on the site, so you can start working on next year's team.

You know, this was

On Zen, Fast Food and Third Base

I don't know exactly where this Zennish story comes from, because like most Americans, I like my Zen the way I like my fast food - quick, made to order and mostly forgetable. But the story goes something like this....

A kid is walking in the jungle and happens across a really hungry man-eating tiger looking for something quick, made to order, and mostly forgetable. The boy tries to run away but finds himself on the edge of a high, steep cliff. He quickly climbs down a couple feet on a vine, peering down at certain death both above and below, because he notices two new hungry tigers pacing at the bottom of the cliff.

And then the vine starts to slowly pull out of the cliff.

While frantically pondering his dilemna, he notices a small strawberry plant growing out of the cliff. It has one nearly perfect strawberry. And so, seconds before the vine gives way completely, he plucks it and pops it in his mouth and thinks "That is the most delicious strawberry I have ever tasted."

The lesson is, of course, unknowable, because otherwise they would just tell you the damn lesson instead of torturing both you and our little protagonist with this story. But it has something to do with getting what you can out of a hopeless situation, which brings us to third base and the Minnesota Twins.

The trade deadline passed without making any moves to upgrade that position, but the worse news is that there doesn't seem to be much hope in the offseason either. Here's a pretty good list of what you can expect to be available as far as third basemen go:

Yikes. If you don't get scared by that "AB" column, you should. There are a total of two regular third baseman on that list, but we might as well run through them all, starting at the bottom:

Abraham O Nunez is a 31-year-old utility player who fell into the job in Philly when David Bell left. He "broke through" back in 2005 when his OPS exceeded 700 (704 - but that exceeds 700) for the first time while replacing Scott Rolen in Cincinatti. The sad part is he might not even be available, as the Phillies do have an option on his contract.

Morgan Ensberg is also 31, and had great seasons in 2004 and 2005, positioning himself as a solid player for several years. (You shoulda signed that guaranteed long-term contract, Morgan). Last year, however, he hit .235 and this year he's just as bad, especially because he's also lost all plate discipline and power. Everything about his stats suggest he's done, and being designated for assignment by the lowly Astros would seem to verify it.

Since these guys are listed by OPS, 31-year-old Russel Branyan looks like a reasonable option. He's not. He's been on three teams this year, and he's hitting .197

Mike Lowell, on the other hand, is definitely going to be an option for someone. He's bounced back nicely from that slump two years ago that made eveyone wonder exactly what he had been putting in his body. He's 33 years old, and has hit for both average and power for the last two years. He'll also likely demand a four-year contract in excess of $12 million per year.

Mike Lamb has had a decent year, and a decent career so far as a platooning first baseman and third baseman. I suspect his at-bats have been limited because he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. He's been hanging around in Houston for the last few years, and he missed being a free agent by just twelve days this year. He's positioned to either be the bargain of the offseason, or the guy that gets a contract much larger than anyone anticipates.

Alex Rodriguez deserves his own entry, and will likely get it this offseason. I think we can safely assume that his upcoming $25-30 million contract won't be with the Twins.

So there you have it. The two lions below are going to be getting money the Twins likely can't match. The four lions above don't have any full-time experience, and with the possible exception of Lamb, don't look like they're much of an improvement on Nick Punto or Brian Buscher.

And so we may need to forgive the Twins if this offseason doesn't produce the result we've all been looking for, and the Twins are force to stay with their in-house options. Instead we might want to prepare ourselves for the quick, forgetable solution, even if it isn't made to order.

Money, Denial and Facebook.

Terry Ryan assures us it's not about money. But, of course, nothing is, or so they say.

They are wrong. Money to us is like water to a fish. It so permeates everything that we don't realize it's there. I've seen gold star quality performers not get hired because they (justifiably) asked for $10000 too much per year. She was going to be responsible for a couple of multi-million dollar projects. The person she was replacing had overseen the budget swelling by half a million dollars. They hired someone that they knew would be worse.

And it swings the other way, too strangely enough. I once had a manager tell me about turning down an analyst who was overqualified. After a little probing, I realized she wasn't worried about his performance or his attitude. She just assumed that he would he would ask for more money than the job had slotted.

And it's certainly not limited to professional life. It's practically a cliche that money is the number one fight topic the first year of marriage. You simply don't understand the attitudes you carry until you share that checking account with another person.

So when Terry Ryan looks at the trade of Luis Castillo, the release of Jeff Cirillo, and the non-claim of Mike Piazza, and tells us it's not about money, I want to believe it. And I think he believes it. But I just don't believe it.

Maybe not claiming Piazza was because he knew Piazza would refuse to come here, and not because he cost $2.5 Million. Maybe losing Cirillo for nothing was because it was an easy roster move to make, and not because it saved $500,000. And maybe trading Castillo for a couple of semi-prospects was - well, I'll be honest, I don't have any idea here. Frustration with the state of the minor league hitters? Pressure to make a trade, any trade? A misguided sense of caretaking guilt? I have no idea. But maybe he had some reason other than the $2 million they would save.

But there are always other reasons, because nobody wants money to be the problem. The overpaid project manager is too cocky. The overqualified analyst will never stay. The wife is spoiled, or the husband doesn't care about the family's future. But if it wasn't for the perceived problem of money, none of those reasons would get in the way. To double-check yourself, you have to ask yourself, if it wasn't for the money, would I still do this?

And all three of Ryan's recent moves fail that test. There's no reason to not add Piazza to this lineup, or to put the team in a position where they have exclusive negotiating rights for him. There's no reason to send Cirillo to Arizona for nothing, which was made all the clearer when Brian Buscher was unexpectedly injured. And there is no reason to make this year's team worse by trading Castillo if it doesn't make next year's team better.

So don't tell me it's not about the money, Terry. Even if you believe it. Because it makes it look like you're losing it. Tell us that you couldn't justify paying $500K to watch Cirillo sit on the bench. Tell us that you wanted to save that Pizza waiver claim money for Jermaine Dye. And tell us that you were hoping moving Castillo would free up some money for another impact player that never became available.

Or hell, just tell us that after year's of scraping by, you just couldn't see the point in paying the high price of mediocrity.

And if none of these are the reasons, then find out what they were, and let us know, would you? Because we aren't going to be satisfied until we get a straight answer. And I suspect that you won't be really satisfied until you can give one.

Facebook
Ok, so one of the GameDay writers me to join Facebook. I pointed out to him that I'm 40 years old, and I don't think I get this whole online social networking thing. But he talked me into it, mostly on the promise of getting the co-ed female groupies that I've been waiting half a dozen years for.

So I joined. If you've got any hints (other than "Run away. Run away NOW!") on what the point of this thing is, and what I'm supposed to be doing. I'd sure like to hear them in the comments.

Twirling, Loathing and My Digestive System

Twins Territory spent the weekend slowly talking themselves back onto the postseason bandwagon, and I joined them. And then I watched fruitless inning follow fuitless inning, growing gloomier and gloomier, and was suddenly attacked by a very strange thought:

I think I would like Paul Byrd.

Oh, not today obviously. Today I hate him with the frigid fury of a half-mile deep glacier. I might even go as far as to say I loathe him, and I say "loathe" in an especially loathful way - it practically slithers out of my mouth. That's the reaction Byrd earned with his performance in one of the top five most critical games of the year.

But, really, you can't help but admire the guy in an 'everyman' kinda way. Just look at his career, would you? He mostly worked out of the bullpen his first several years in the majors, but had had one great half-year in his first full year stint as a starter. That earned him his only trip to the All-Star game, though nobody trusted him enough to let him pitch. Then he regressed. But he rejuvenated himself as a 30-year-old, regressed again last year, and has twirled his way to a 4.33 ERA this year.

And judging by last night, I'm choosing that last verb carefully. He hasn't "thrown" or "hurled", and even "pitched" doesn't quite describe it. Byrd twirls - changing speeds, inside-out, high-low, and nibbling corners. Watching him against your team is maddening, and I imagine that batting against him must lead to thoughts of senseless violence.

So last night, I tried to watch him from a more objective, appreciative point of view, and a sort of Zen tranquility eventually enveloped me. Granted, it was a seething Zen tranquility, and if maintained for any extended period of time, would lead to ulcers. To be honest, it was a pretty bitter tranquility. But I still preferred it to the acid-refluxing rage a few Denys Reyes walks inspired.

But (and I'm sure you'll agree) enough about my digestive system.

Byrd pitches exactly like you would want him to, and probably how he and his 87 MPH fastball need to. For instance, batters want to "pull" balls on the inside of the plate, and they need to swing earlier to do that. So what does Byrd throw them? Fastballs, of course, so they need to swing especially early.

Those inside pitches are also what tend to end up in the bleachers, since pulling a ball means it can go a lot further. So versus those batters with power, like Mauer or Morneau, the fastball was usually a ball, just inside the edge of the plate. But for those without power, like Alexi Casilla or Brian Busher, the ball was over the plate, leading to a long fly ball.

And on the outside half of the plate? Where batters train themselves to wait a little longer with their inside-out swings? Plenty of off-speed pitches, making them wait an eternity. And almost always with some movement, bending back over the plate, darting off of it, or diving itself into a ground ball. It was more like watching a ping-pong player spin a return than a dominant pitcher lead his team to a division lead.

That's a simplified version of what happened, of course. None of that explains exactly why the Twins have been hopeless against Byrd, while most other teams in the American League have enjoyed at least moderate success. The Twins have failed against the "professional and patient" type of pitcher again and again, which is one of the reasons their bats have been so lifeless in the postseason.

And today, it's one of the reasons that Twins Territory is likely having second thoughts about that bandwagon.

Catching Up

I left for a baseball-themed vacation last Tuesday morning, which is why I've been away, and just arrived home about an hour ago. So, did I miss anything?

The 8-Ball Answers: Moving Castillo

It’s being reported by both local and national sources that Luis Castillo is being traded to the Mets for a couple second-tier prospects, C Drew Butera and OF Dustin Martin. The trade raises all kinds of question, so let’s grab the Magic 8-Ball and see what it has to say….

Is this the best Terry Ryan could do?
Definitely Yes

Castillo's value has been apparent since Friday, when Tadahito Iguchi and Kenny Lofton were each traded for an A-ball prospect. You could argue that Ryan got twice as much as he probably should have.

Yeah, but I looked at these guys stats, and don’t they suck?
Ask Again Later

Butera is a 23-year-old in AA who was promoted earlier this year after having some success at High-A ball. He’s taking it on the chin in his exposure there, hitting just .195 so far in 113 at-bats. Of more concern is his history, because he hasn't hit for average in his two-year professional career.

Martin is hitting .287, but he's not hitting for power, and he's also 23, and he's doing so in High A ball. Again, he doesn't profile as anything close to a top prospect.

But as someone who has criticized Ryan's trades in the past, I gotta say, you do NOT pass judgement on these things right away. I ripped Ryan several years ago for giving away Brian Buchanan for a utility infielder in A-Ball. That ended up being Jason Bartlett. I wondered aloud if they couldn't get something more substantial for JC Romero than a middle infielder way down on the Angels' organizational depth chart. That ended up being Alexi Casilla. And I wondered why they bothered to include a fragile left-hander in the AJ Pierzynski trade, who was obviously Francisco Liriano.

After you wear enough egg, you learn. When Ryan makes a trade that he isn't forced to make, and he gets guys low in the minors that look suspect, keep your mouth shut and give him the benefit of the doubt. He's certainly earned it.

Does This Mean They're Giving Up On The Season?
Don't Count On It

Castillo certainly was valuable in his role. His defense was overrated due to his errorless streak, but he did two things well - got on base and raised his level of play when he became interested. But there are a couple things to consider:

1. Ryan may be trying to walk a fine line. The team isn't good enough, and the players available on the trade market aren't impactful enough, to convince him that any deal is necessarily going to be a difference maker. By moving Castillo, he leverages an asset that he feels he can replace with one of several different pieces - Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher or Matt Tolbert. He also helps the team in the future (albeit the distant future) without sacrificing much for the present.

Personally, I don't see a suitable substitute on the roster, which brings us to the next point....

2. The other shoe may soon drop. Why would trading away Castillo be necessary for a different trade? Well, he may see another available second baseman that is a better fit for the Twins, providing more power or better at-bats, and at a smaller price tag. I certainly do. Or (and I think this is more likely) he felt like he needed to free up some payroll dollars to pay someone a little more expensive that could have a greater impact.

You'll recall that Ryan went this route in 2001, trying to shuffle players to upgrade his pitching staff, bullpen and right fielder, but failed after completing 2/3 of the trades. Rumor had it that the last piece - trading for Shannon Stewart - fell through because the Blue Jays delayed until they just ran out of time. If this is the plan, let's hope Ryan has found a more competent trading partner than Gord Ash.

So is this a good trade or not?
Outlook Not So Good

It doesn't do anything to improve this this year, and it doesn't do anything to improve next year, and those should be issues 1A and 1B on any list of priorities. The franchise seemingly hasn't made up it's mind, with less than 24 hours to go. Or at least, if they have, this trade doesn't indicate it.

If they're going for it this year, then announce that, and commit moving a prospect for an impact player. If they're looking to the future, they should be finding out if they have a realistic chance of keeping Torii Hunter next year, and that means entering into negotiations quickly to find out if Hunter and the Twins are in the same ballpark. If not, they need to shop him in a hurry.

They've done neither with this trade. Unless it is followed by another, it feels like a wasted opportunity, and will likely be interpreted as a white flag by the fans and the team. And waving a white flag with 60 games left to go should get a team more than a couple of minor league sleepers.

Weekend Notes

Losing Wiggy
The Twins were apparantly interested in Ty Wigginton, so there's going to be some trashing of Terry Ryan if the Twins don't get the bat they need. But there was virtually no way the Twins were going to get that particular deal done.

Tampa Bay clearly wanted some help for their bullpen, and once Dan Wheeler was offered, the only card the Twins could've played to trump it was Pat Neshek. Wheeler is essentially equivalent to Juan Rincon, including having a bit of a meltdown this year. But Wheeler recovered, Rincon didn't, and Tampa Bay had an easy decision.

What's His Name....
Of course, with Ty Wigginton on his way to Houston, the Astros designated Morgan Ensberg for assignment. Ensberg is a player that the Twins had previously show some interest in, but in Sunday's radio show, it didn't exactly sound like he was at the forefront of Terry Ryan's mind.

When asked about the Wigginton trade, Ryan started rattling off the names of the Astro's infielders, but completely stalled when he got to Ensberg. He actually referred to him as "Whathisname...."

Divine Intervention
Saturday night, I had this vision of Terry Ryan, struggling with the decision of whether to buy or to sell at the tradeline. In desperation, he looks up to he heavens, beseeching the Lord for a sign…

And as Tyner’s ball slips over the bullpen wall, he says “Oh! Well. That’ll do.”

More on Tyner's Shot
Congrats to Regina. She got her wish, though just barely. One might really be more impressive than 756. And I won't be surprised if One exceeds 756 in communal joy, though likely not in communal relief.

Depressing Early Quote on the 2B Market

A couple of buyer-seller trade deadline deals happened earlier today, and they're significant to Twins fans who think that 'selling' at the trade deadline is going to bring some significant returns. They don't demonstrat much of a market for Luis Castillo.

The first deal sent Tadahto Iguchi to the Philadelphia Phillies for Michael Dubee. The Phillies were one of three teams looking for second basemen at the deadline, with the Mets and the Padres being the other two. Unfortunately for the Twins, there are also plenty of players available:
Castillo is listed there in the middle of the bunch. In actuality, I think he's considered more valuable than Iguchi, and at about the same level as Grudzielanek and Loretta. But he certainly isn't head and shoulders above that crowd.

So what did the White Sox get in return? Dubee is a 21-year-old anA ball minor league reliever. His stats look fine, but that still makes him just an A ball minor league reliever. Kinda like Eduardo Morlan in Fort Myers. Oh, you don't know Morlan? My point exactly. (Actually, it looks like Morlan is significantly better than Dubee.)

The other trade was Kenny Lofton to the Indians from the Texas Rangers. Lofton is definitely having a better year (.303/.380/.438) than any of the guys up there, and he plays center field, a tougher position. The Indians gave up Max Ramirez, a 22-year-old catcher who is slugging the heck out of the ball - wait for it - in A ball. I don't mean to knock Ramirez, who looks like he could be pretty good - wait for it, wait for it again - in 2010.

For Twins fans who think that dumping some of the smaller name players like Silva or Castillo are going to lead to immediate returns next year, this isn't good news. The Twins might - might - be able to turn these guys into some players who can be organizational assets, but immediate help doesn't seem to be the going rate.

Buyer Beware

It’s tempting to turn this site into OTRMC (Obsessive Trade Rumor Mongering Central) this weekend, but the longer I’ve been studying this stuff, the less convinced I am of anything I read. We count on the beat writers and corporate media to use their access to bring us some hints, but I wonder if 99% of their rumors are any more credible than a bunch of sports radio callers suggesting outlandish trade ideas.

For instance, how much have we heard about Tampa Bay corner infielder Ty Wiggington? He’s ‘rumored’ to be going to the Twins or Yankees, but the more I look at the initial reports, the less convinced I am that he’s even on the market. Locally, his name is mentioned because of conversations with members of the team. Like who? Does this mean La Velle E Neal heard Torii Hunter mention his name? And is that based mostly on last year’s Wigginton rumors which, oh yeah, didn’t amount to anything?

He’s also been mentioned several times in the New York papers, usually linked to a trade involving reliever Scott Proctor. But the only time I see him mentioned as a trade candidate in the Tampa Bay papers is when they’re quoting the New York or the Minneapolis papers. Where exactly is this coming from?

And I’ll give an example the other way. Did you know that the Twins were talking trade for Philadelphia Phillies slugging outfielder Pat Burrel? No? Didn’t hear anything about that? Well, they did in Philly. They were going to get Kevin Slowey. But (surprise!) it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

Here’s a few tidbits that you might find interesting about Burrel. First, his career batting average is .258. Second, he’s never had a season where he’s struck out less than 130 times (and he only played in 127 games that year). Third, he’s under contract for $12 million next year. Lastly, he has a full no-trade clause, which means that he could use it to negotiate an extension beyond that.

Oh yeah. He looks like exactly the kind of guy Terry Ryan would target.

A busy "off day" for the Twins (hopefully)...

I’m not sure exactly where the rush to judgment comes from, other than it’s kind of fun. There is no evidence that MLB teams need a lot of time to arrange trades. So I stand by my assertion that Terry Ryan and the Twins have three more days to make up their mind.

But on Sunday afternoon, the Twins will know, and they’re going to want to know what chits they want to cash in. One of those chits is Torii Hunter, and there IS plenty of evidence that negotiations on contracts take a long time. If Hunter is expecting yen like the Mariners threw at Ichiro, or six guaranteed years, or something else that crosses the line from aggressive to irresponsible, the Twins should be shopping him heavily.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the we hear of a Hunter extension within the next few days, or of a Hunter trade. For the first time this season, there is suddenly a need from the Twins side for a hard deadline to these contract negotiations.