Scotty,
About 80 years from now you're going to die. And as you wait for a decision, I want you to know that tonight is fair game. While you are standing in all your naked judgement before The Almighty, it's valid to point out to him that Mike Sweeney:
1) shouldn't have even been on that team and
b) simply failed to get any real wood on a pop-up.
And, while you're at it, you may want to point out that (god damn it) you deserved better than that given the last two years that you've struggled through.
And I, for one, will be right there with you. And so will 26,000 Twins fans.
Sincerely,
TG
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Sunday, August 26, 2007
On History, Performance and Disappointments
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
- George Santaya
You’ve probably heard this historical quote before, but the truth is that Santaya never said it, or at least that is not what he wrote. What he actually wrote was “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Santaya wasn’t even talking about history – he was talking about change and retention.
Which means that the quote most often used to justify studying history isn’t itself accurate. Apparently, we’re open to learning from history, so long as we can mold it to say what we want it to say.
I’ve felt the same way over the last month reading the various requiems by bloggers, sportswriters and talk show hosts about the Twins disappointing season. They differ on the importance of various mistakes, but they seem united in one point – that the Twins should have been able to foresee this stuff. And that the Twins need to learn from their mistakes so they don’t make them again.
I’m not so sure. As I look at the performances of many of the players and compare them to my own expectations, I see a lot of gambles that didn’t work out, and very few that did. In short, I see a fair amount of bad luck, and not something that can necessarily be learned from.
Rather than go through the various criticisms, try doing the following: name all the Twins who disappointed you this season and compare them to all the ones who outperformed your expectations. Go ahead, try it.
My list of those who clearly performed worse than expectations (because of injuries or otherwise) includes Nick Punto, Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Jason Bartlett, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Denys Reyes, Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Glen Perkins and Boof Bonser.
And here are the ones who have exceeded expectations: Torii Hunter, Scott Baker, Carlos Silva and Matt Garza.
It doesn’t have anything to do with signing mediocrity or over-emphasizing speed or trusting veterans too much. It has to do with too many bad years by too many players. About the only thing we might be able to learn is that expectations for some of these guys may need to be altered. But for most of them, I’m not even sure that’s appropriate.
So I’d urge readers to be careful when reading or listening to these orations. Ask yourself if what they’re proposing is really the lesson we should learn. Or whether we should instead listen to a different quote attributed to Santaya:
History is a pack of lies about events that never happened told by people who weren't there.
- George Santaya
You’ve probably heard this historical quote before, but the truth is that Santaya never said it, or at least that is not what he wrote. What he actually wrote was “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Santaya wasn’t even talking about history – he was talking about change and retention.
Which means that the quote most often used to justify studying history isn’t itself accurate. Apparently, we’re open to learning from history, so long as we can mold it to say what we want it to say.
I’ve felt the same way over the last month reading the various requiems by bloggers, sportswriters and talk show hosts about the Twins disappointing season. They differ on the importance of various mistakes, but they seem united in one point – that the Twins should have been able to foresee this stuff. And that the Twins need to learn from their mistakes so they don’t make them again.
I’m not so sure. As I look at the performances of many of the players and compare them to my own expectations, I see a lot of gambles that didn’t work out, and very few that did. In short, I see a fair amount of bad luck, and not something that can necessarily be learned from.
Rather than go through the various criticisms, try doing the following: name all the Twins who disappointed you this season and compare them to all the ones who outperformed your expectations. Go ahead, try it.
My list of those who clearly performed worse than expectations (because of injuries or otherwise) includes Nick Punto, Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Jason Bartlett, Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Denys Reyes, Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, Glen Perkins and Boof Bonser.
And here are the ones who have exceeded expectations: Torii Hunter, Scott Baker, Carlos Silva and Matt Garza.
It doesn’t have anything to do with signing mediocrity or over-emphasizing speed or trusting veterans too much. It has to do with too many bad years by too many players. About the only thing we might be able to learn is that expectations for some of these guys may need to be altered. But for most of them, I’m not even sure that’s appropriate.
So I’d urge readers to be careful when reading or listening to these orations. Ask yourself if what they’re proposing is really the lesson we should learn. Or whether we should instead listen to a different quote attributed to Santaya:
History is a pack of lies about events that never happened told by people who weren't there.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Bonnes Family Vacation: Day 2
So, this is a new one.
I've spent more than my fair share of time in bars, and like to think that I've done just about everything there is to do in one, but I've never blogged in one. Yet, here I am, in our hotel sports bar, a fairly happening place, literally bellied up to the bar so I can reach the keyboard on my Dell laptop.
I'm down here because my family is sleeping. And they're sleeping because they have all sucked the life out of each other by 9:45 tonight. And that's because we have completed our second day of our family vacation.
So maybe a better question is why am I NOT sleeping. And it's because I want to stretch a bit, write about something a little different than baseball. I'm a little wary, because usually when I write about my family, I have a story to tell, but tonight I'm writing because there isn't a story to tell. I'm writing because I'm sure there are a dozen stories from the last 48 hours, and I'm wondering how I missed them. It's almost like I'm writing to punish myself, but it's more to remind myself to keep a storyteller's eye on things.
And one such story should probably be the drive here to Chicago. I cannot tell you why, but it was incredibly important to me to drive here - to force my family into a seven hour drive. And I have no idea why. It's not like I remember anything important happening in the care on the endless trips my family took every other summer out west.
What I remember is trivial. Like I remember my brother and I taking every available pillow (I think there were four of them) and sticking them into the foot wells of the back seat. That way, one of us would sleep on the large back seat (no bucket seats in those old station wagons) and the other one would sleep on the floor of the back seat. The pillows were important, because they leveled the back floor a bit so the enormous hump that ran through the back of the car wasn't sticking into the middle of your back (too much). So it wasn't because I thought something important would happen for them.
Mostly, I think I wanted to drive because I really like to drive. I'd like to say it makes me think things out, and that's partly true, but again, I can't remember any particularly illuminating insights I've ever had while driving. I just like the feeling of being in the car, of going somewhere, of things changing, and I want the kids to eventually gain that too. So, naturally, I'm dragging them on these little death marches.
On second thought, maybe that isn't the best idea, huh?
But it seems to be working, especially for The Boy™, who has been especially happy. In fact, he's been annoyingly happy. Keeping him focused is nearly always a challenge, but this week it's been impossible. He gets so excited about a simple concept like Dunkin Donuts for breakfast that when the big stuff comes (like going on a speedboat tour of Chicago) he doesn't even know what he's doing.
It's been tragically funny to watch him interact with The Voice of Reason™ in this condition. Today, they literally had the following conversation as he prepared to go out to the swimming pool. I'm going to portray it from his point-of-view:
TB: Mom, where are my (swimming) goggles?
TVOR: Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz. Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz your buzzy-buzz.
(The Boy™ wanders around the hotel room for twenty seconds wondering what he's doing, then remembers he's looking for his goggles.)
TB: (a little more urgently): Mom, have you seen my goggles?
TVOR: Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz. You need to buzzy-buzz your sandals. Get your sandals on.
(The Boy™ spins around the room for 5 more seconds, clues in that he's supposed to be getting his sandals, and then realizes that Mom is still missing the point.)
TB: My GOGGLES. Where are my goggles?
TVOR: I. HAVE. YOUR. GOGGLES. (long pause) YOU. NEE-EED. TO PUT ON. YOUR SANDALS.
By the third time she has repeated the same sentence, she's speaking slowly. And loudly. She's looking him in the eye. And waving the goggles in front of his nose. She is using all possible resources at her disposal to get the point across. I expect the next step was for her to find a conference room with one of those giant Post-It™ pads and illustrate it for him.
Of course, I find this endlessly amusing in part because I've been doing this to her for years. This Sunday morning I needed to pick up The Chatty Chatty Princess™ from a slumber party, and so I asked TVOR if she had the invitation so I could find the house's address. And she looked at me like I had just grown a third eye.
"It's on the kitchen table. I found it. I brought it to you. I asked you if you would go get her. You said yes. Then I handed you the invitation. You said thanks. Then you set it down on the kitchen table."
I, of course, remember none of this, because I was reading the paper at the time. And I have no doubt that everything she said was true. My talking point now is that for the last seventeen years I've been preparing her for having her own small boy. I'm sure her point is that he's my freaking son, and she should have been a little more careful about selecting a less shallow gene pool.
But here's the punchline. The invitation was on the kitchen table, but I forgot it there when I went to pick her up, so I had to call TVOR from outside the house and confirm the damn address anyway.
Hey, look, I found a story. That was fun. Maybe, just maybe, we'll try again tomorrow night.
I've spent more than my fair share of time in bars, and like to think that I've done just about everything there is to do in one, but I've never blogged in one. Yet, here I am, in our hotel sports bar, a fairly happening place, literally bellied up to the bar so I can reach the keyboard on my Dell laptop.
I'm down here because my family is sleeping. And they're sleeping because they have all sucked the life out of each other by 9:45 tonight. And that's because we have completed our second day of our family vacation.
So maybe a better question is why am I NOT sleeping. And it's because I want to stretch a bit, write about something a little different than baseball. I'm a little wary, because usually when I write about my family, I have a story to tell, but tonight I'm writing because there isn't a story to tell. I'm writing because I'm sure there are a dozen stories from the last 48 hours, and I'm wondering how I missed them. It's almost like I'm writing to punish myself, but it's more to remind myself to keep a storyteller's eye on things.
And one such story should probably be the drive here to Chicago. I cannot tell you why, but it was incredibly important to me to drive here - to force my family into a seven hour drive. And I have no idea why. It's not like I remember anything important happening in the care on the endless trips my family took every other summer out west.
What I remember is trivial. Like I remember my brother and I taking every available pillow (I think there were four of them) and sticking them into the foot wells of the back seat. That way, one of us would sleep on the large back seat (no bucket seats in those old station wagons) and the other one would sleep on the floor of the back seat. The pillows were important, because they leveled the back floor a bit so the enormous hump that ran through the back of the car wasn't sticking into the middle of your back (too much). So it wasn't because I thought something important would happen for them.
Mostly, I think I wanted to drive because I really like to drive. I'd like to say it makes me think things out, and that's partly true, but again, I can't remember any particularly illuminating insights I've ever had while driving. I just like the feeling of being in the car, of going somewhere, of things changing, and I want the kids to eventually gain that too. So, naturally, I'm dragging them on these little death marches.
On second thought, maybe that isn't the best idea, huh?
But it seems to be working, especially for The Boy™, who has been especially happy. In fact, he's been annoyingly happy. Keeping him focused is nearly always a challenge, but this week it's been impossible. He gets so excited about a simple concept like Dunkin Donuts for breakfast that when the big stuff comes (like going on a speedboat tour of Chicago) he doesn't even know what he's doing.
It's been tragically funny to watch him interact with The Voice of Reason™ in this condition. Today, they literally had the following conversation as he prepared to go out to the swimming pool. I'm going to portray it from his point-of-view:
TB: Mom, where are my (swimming) goggles?
TVOR: Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz. Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz your buzzy-buzz.
(The Boy™ wanders around the hotel room for twenty seconds wondering what he's doing, then remembers he's looking for his goggles.)
TB: (a little more urgently): Mom, have you seen my goggles?
TVOR: Buzz buzz buzz buzzy-buzz. You need to buzzy-buzz your sandals. Get your sandals on.
(The Boy™ spins around the room for 5 more seconds, clues in that he's supposed to be getting his sandals, and then realizes that Mom is still missing the point.)
TB: My GOGGLES. Where are my goggles?
TVOR: I. HAVE. YOUR. GOGGLES. (long pause) YOU. NEE-EED. TO PUT ON. YOUR SANDALS.
By the third time she has repeated the same sentence, she's speaking slowly. And loudly. She's looking him in the eye. And waving the goggles in front of his nose. She is using all possible resources at her disposal to get the point across. I expect the next step was for her to find a conference room with one of those giant Post-It™ pads and illustrate it for him.
Of course, I find this endlessly amusing in part because I've been doing this to her for years. This Sunday morning I needed to pick up The Chatty Chatty Princess™ from a slumber party, and so I asked TVOR if she had the invitation so I could find the house's address. And she looked at me like I had just grown a third eye.
"It's on the kitchen table. I found it. I brought it to you. I asked you if you would go get her. You said yes. Then I handed you the invitation. You said thanks. Then you set it down on the kitchen table."
I, of course, remember none of this, because I was reading the paper at the time. And I have no doubt that everything she said was true. My talking point now is that for the last seventeen years I've been preparing her for having her own small boy. I'm sure her point is that he's my freaking son, and she should have been a little more careful about selecting a less shallow gene pool.
But here's the punchline. The invitation was on the kitchen table, but I forgot it there when I went to pick her up, so I had to call TVOR from outside the house and confirm the damn address anyway.
Hey, look, I found a story. That was fun. Maybe, just maybe, we'll try again tomorrow night.
Monday, August 20, 2007
The Untold Story of How Joe Helped Nick Out of his Slump
by Twins Geek
As Joe Mauer waited his turn for the batting cage, he noticed Patrick Reusse weaving his way towards him. “Hey Joe!” his gravel voice squeaked. “How many RBI do you think you’ll drive in this season?”
“Oh, I don’t know. I don’t really keep track.”
”What? Then how do you compare yourself to other players?”
“By height.”
Thinking he had missed part of the conversation (again), Reusse wandered away to ask Morneau when he was going to start hitting left-handers again. From his shadow, little Nick Punto suddenly emerged. “Hey, Joe. Can I ask you something?”
“Sure thing, Ned. Shoot.” said Joe kindly.
“It’s Nick, Joe”, replied Punto. “Did you ever trouble getting excited about baseball?”
“No, I've never had that problem,” Joe replied thoughtfully. “Why?”
“Forget it. I didn't think you'd understand”, Nick dejectedly. But he fired back up almost immediately. “I’ve got to hit again. I’ve just got to!”
“Nick, this isn't Russia. Is this Russia? This isn't Russia, is it?"
“Um, no…”
“I didn't think so. Now, the thing is, do you want to hit?”
“Well, yeah. If I don’t, I might lose my job,“ lamented Nick. “I mean, how am I going to support my family?”
“Whoa, Nate. I’m not even a free agent yet. I helped you find that jewelry endorsement, and I bought you that Coke yesterday. I can’t pay for everything…”
“No, no,” Nick quickly responded as Joe entered the batting cage. “It’s just, I really, really, want to hit again. I’m tired of grounding out weakly to shortstop. I’m not ready for my career to end and to spend the rest of my life selling baseball stuff from some warehouse.”
“What’s the matter with selling baseball stuff?” wondered Joe. “I own two warehouses full of QuickSwings.™”
“I notice you don’t spend a lot of time at them.”
“I’m not sure where they are.”
After a couple of practice swings, Joe looked back at Nick, and seemingly made a decision. “I like you, Nancy”, he said.
“That's Nick, Joe”, replied Nick.
“Nick. I’m going to give you a little advice. There's a force in the universe that makes things happen.” And out of his back pocket, he pulled a headband. “All you have to do is get in touch with it,” he said as he put the headband around his head and... over his eyes? “Stop thinking.” He picked up the bat. “Hear nothing. Feel nothing.” He brought the back bat, cocked, waiting for the pitch. “Just let things happen and be….”
The pitching machine clicked. The ball fired.
“…the ball.”
The arms swung. The wrists uncoiled. With a holy smack the ball flew straight up the middle.
“That was kind of incredible, Joe!” exclaimed Nick.
“Thank you very little, replied Joe. “Here, you try it.”
“Pardon me?” said Nick.
“You try it,” Said Joe, handing Nick the bat and blindfold. “Just relax. Find your center.”
Nick lined himself up at the plate. Resting the bat on his leg, he put the blindfold over his eyes. “Just picture the pitch. Picture it” quietly coached Joe.
Nick picked up the bat, raising his arms behind his head.
“Turn off all the sound. Just let it happen,” continued Joe. “Be the ball,” he whispered. “Be the ball, Nick.”
The machine clicked. The ball fired – right past Punto with the bat still cocked behind his head.
“You're not being the ball, Nick,” scolded Joe.
“Well, it's difficult with you talking like that,” spat back Nick.
“OK. I'm not talking,” said Joe soothingly. “I’ve stopped talking. I'm not talking now. Be the ball.”
The machine clicked. The ball fired. But this time, the bat connected – and the ball dribbled weakly to the left of the pitching machine.
Punto whipped off the blindfold. “Where did it go?” he asked.
“Right in the warehouse,” sighed Joe. “It's okay. We'll work on it.”
The Twins Geek writes a couple time per week about Minnesota Sports at TwinsGeek.com. And on his deathbed, he’ll receive total consciousness. So he’s got that going for him. Which is nice.
As Joe Mauer waited his turn for the batting cage, he noticed Patrick Reusse weaving his way towards him. “Hey Joe!” his gravel voice squeaked. “How many RBI do you think you’ll drive in this season?”
“Oh, I don’t know. I don’t really keep track.”
”What? Then how do you compare yourself to other players?”
“By height.”
Thinking he had missed part of the conversation (again), Reusse wandered away to ask Morneau when he was going to start hitting left-handers again. From his shadow, little Nick Punto suddenly emerged. “Hey, Joe. Can I ask you something?”
“Sure thing, Ned. Shoot.” said Joe kindly.
“It’s Nick, Joe”, replied Punto. “Did you ever trouble getting excited about baseball?”
“No, I've never had that problem,” Joe replied thoughtfully. “Why?”
“Forget it. I didn't think you'd understand”, Nick dejectedly. But he fired back up almost immediately. “I’ve got to hit again. I’ve just got to!”
“Nick, this isn't Russia. Is this Russia? This isn't Russia, is it?"
“Um, no…”
“I didn't think so. Now, the thing is, do you want to hit?”
“Well, yeah. If I don’t, I might lose my job,“ lamented Nick. “I mean, how am I going to support my family?”
“Whoa, Nate. I’m not even a free agent yet. I helped you find that jewelry endorsement, and I bought you that Coke yesterday. I can’t pay for everything…”
“No, no,” Nick quickly responded as Joe entered the batting cage. “It’s just, I really, really, want to hit again. I’m tired of grounding out weakly to shortstop. I’m not ready for my career to end and to spend the rest of my life selling baseball stuff from some warehouse.”
“What’s the matter with selling baseball stuff?” wondered Joe. “I own two warehouses full of QuickSwings.™”
“I notice you don’t spend a lot of time at them.”
“I’m not sure where they are.”
After a couple of practice swings, Joe looked back at Nick, and seemingly made a decision. “I like you, Nancy”, he said.
“That's Nick, Joe”, replied Nick.
“Nick. I’m going to give you a little advice. There's a force in the universe that makes things happen.” And out of his back pocket, he pulled a headband. “All you have to do is get in touch with it,” he said as he put the headband around his head and... over his eyes? “Stop thinking.” He picked up the bat. “Hear nothing. Feel nothing.” He brought the back bat, cocked, waiting for the pitch. “Just let things happen and be….”
The pitching machine clicked. The ball fired.
“…the ball.”
The arms swung. The wrists uncoiled. With a holy smack the ball flew straight up the middle.
“That was kind of incredible, Joe!” exclaimed Nick.
“Thank you very little, replied Joe. “Here, you try it.”
“Pardon me?” said Nick.
“You try it,” Said Joe, handing Nick the bat and blindfold. “Just relax. Find your center.”
Nick lined himself up at the plate. Resting the bat on his leg, he put the blindfold over his eyes. “Just picture the pitch. Picture it” quietly coached Joe.
Nick picked up the bat, raising his arms behind his head.
“Turn off all the sound. Just let it happen,” continued Joe. “Be the ball,” he whispered. “Be the ball, Nick.”
The machine clicked. The ball fired – right past Punto with the bat still cocked behind his head.
“You're not being the ball, Nick,” scolded Joe.
“Well, it's difficult with you talking like that,” spat back Nick.
“OK. I'm not talking,” said Joe soothingly. “I’ve stopped talking. I'm not talking now. Be the ball.”
The machine clicked. The ball fired. But this time, the bat connected – and the ball dribbled weakly to the left of the pitching machine.
Punto whipped off the blindfold. “Where did it go?” he asked.
“Right in the warehouse,” sighed Joe. “It's okay. We'll work on it.”
The Twins Geek writes a couple time per week about Minnesota Sports at TwinsGeek.com. And on his deathbed, he’ll receive total consciousness. So he’s got that going for him. Which is nice.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Meeting Up With An Old Friend
To be totally honest, it's been a couple of years since I've paid close attention to the Vikings, for various reasons. Their "brand" of football isn't purely to blame, though it certainly made watching them on Sunday afternoons less compelling. But it's also been about the stage of life I'm in, and maybe moreso about the stage of life my entire group of friends is now in.
Twenty years ago, Sunday afternoons were comletely reserved for the guys, and that habit stayed with us into early marriages, in part because our wives were either interested in the game or at least understood that we were only going to be minimally available for those three hours. And if enough beer was consumed, mabye the 3-6 hours after that.
Kids, however, have no such interest or knowledge. These days a game is interrupted about 20 times, and any house that hosts needs to accomodate twice as many people as it used to. Add to that the increased responsibilities most of us have on the weekend and instead of watching 16 games per year in their entirety, I'm more likely to catch three.
But I think that might change this year. And so, it was more than a little anticipation I sat down on Friday night with a beer, my TV and a Tivo to reaquaint myself with an old friend. And I gotta say, I wasn't dissappointed.
You gotta remember, the Jets are a good team that plays in the AFC, which automatically makes them a better team than the Vikings going into this game. Add on that it's a game on the road, and in New York which can provide all kinds of delicious distractions, and a dominating first half is a real positive sign.
But the preseason is made for evealuating players, not teams, so let's jump into a some Thumbs Up and Thumbs Downs
Thumbs Up - Chad Greenway
The interception return for a touchdown was the play that most people will be talking about, but he made a play earlier in the quarter that I thought was more impressive. On another safety valve pass, Greenway sniffed it out from at least ten yards behind the line of scrimmage and made an open field tackle behind the line of scrimmage. I haven't seen a linebacker on the Vikings make that play in the 21st century. Please God, keep this kid healthy.
Thumbs Down - The rest of the linebackers
That may be a little harsh on EJ Henderson, who only embarassed himself once. On the other hand, I watched Ben Leber run himself out of position at least three times. Once, he managed to somehow make ten yards behind the line of scrimmage, on the opposite side of the field, at exactly the time that the running back was cutting back to where he should have been. I honestly don't know how he got out of position so quickly. I think he might have teleported.
Thumbs Up - Adrian Peterson
He showed us a spin, speed in running away from most of the defense, and the ability to deliver a blow - on his first play. Giggle.
Thumbs Down - Marcus James
Any pressure the Jets got came from the Vikings' right side, including the one that resulted in Bollinger's fumble. I was legitimately embarassed for James on the play.
Thumbs Up - Ray Edwards
I suspect he'll be called for approximately seven offside penalties this year - someone get that guy a decaf. On the other hand, hold that thought - two big plays behind the line of scrimmage and some consistent pressure from a defensive end is something this team desperately needs.
Thumbs Down - Alex Reyes
He's not kicking field goals, right? And he's not punting either? So his ONLY job is to kick it deep on kickoffs, right? Well, then, he should probably do that.
Thumbs Up - Aundrae Allison
First, I think he deserves some props for being the first person in the history of the world to spell Andre in a phonetically responsible way. And second, I just plain like a guy who takes a kick and runs it straight up the field. I don't care if he breaks a single tackle all year. I'm being totally serious.
Thumbs Down - Cedric Griffin
You know why they picked on you Cedric? Because you can't play physically. That's why.
Which means you can't just give the receiver ten yards and expect to tackle him before he gains a single yard after the catch. after the catch. On the touchdown play, I don't even blame Griffin much for missing the tackle. But he wasn't even in the camera's view from the beginning of that play until the receiver had the ball. He started ten yards back, then he backpedaled. The Vikings sent six guys at the QB and he didn't need to take even three steps back. He completed a nine yard pass doing nothing more than standing up and rifling the ball.
And that's enough for the night, and the weekend. We'll see you Monday, when we'll be back talking about the Twins.
Twenty years ago, Sunday afternoons were comletely reserved for the guys, and that habit stayed with us into early marriages, in part because our wives were either interested in the game or at least understood that we were only going to be minimally available for those three hours. And if enough beer was consumed, mabye the 3-6 hours after that.
Kids, however, have no such interest or knowledge. These days a game is interrupted about 20 times, and any house that hosts needs to accomodate twice as many people as it used to. Add to that the increased responsibilities most of us have on the weekend and instead of watching 16 games per year in their entirety, I'm more likely to catch three.
But I think that might change this year. And so, it was more than a little anticipation I sat down on Friday night with a beer, my TV and a Tivo to reaquaint myself with an old friend. And I gotta say, I wasn't dissappointed.
You gotta remember, the Jets are a good team that plays in the AFC, which automatically makes them a better team than the Vikings going into this game. Add on that it's a game on the road, and in New York which can provide all kinds of delicious distractions, and a dominating first half is a real positive sign.
But the preseason is made for evealuating players, not teams, so let's jump into a some Thumbs Up and Thumbs Downs
Thumbs Up - Chad Greenway
The interception return for a touchdown was the play that most people will be talking about, but he made a play earlier in the quarter that I thought was more impressive. On another safety valve pass, Greenway sniffed it out from at least ten yards behind the line of scrimmage and made an open field tackle behind the line of scrimmage. I haven't seen a linebacker on the Vikings make that play in the 21st century. Please God, keep this kid healthy.
Thumbs Down - The rest of the linebackers
That may be a little harsh on EJ Henderson, who only embarassed himself once. On the other hand, I watched Ben Leber run himself out of position at least three times. Once, he managed to somehow make ten yards behind the line of scrimmage, on the opposite side of the field, at exactly the time that the running back was cutting back to where he should have been. I honestly don't know how he got out of position so quickly. I think he might have teleported.
Thumbs Up - Adrian Peterson
He showed us a spin, speed in running away from most of the defense, and the ability to deliver a blow - on his first play. Giggle.
Thumbs Down - Marcus James
Any pressure the Jets got came from the Vikings' right side, including the one that resulted in Bollinger's fumble. I was legitimately embarassed for James on the play.
Thumbs Up - Ray Edwards
I suspect he'll be called for approximately seven offside penalties this year - someone get that guy a decaf. On the other hand, hold that thought - two big plays behind the line of scrimmage and some consistent pressure from a defensive end is something this team desperately needs.
Thumbs Down - Alex Reyes
He's not kicking field goals, right? And he's not punting either? So his ONLY job is to kick it deep on kickoffs, right? Well, then, he should probably do that.
Thumbs Up - Aundrae Allison
First, I think he deserves some props for being the first person in the history of the world to spell Andre in a phonetically responsible way. And second, I just plain like a guy who takes a kick and runs it straight up the field. I don't care if he breaks a single tackle all year. I'm being totally serious.
Thumbs Down - Cedric Griffin
You know why they picked on you Cedric? Because you can't play physically. That's why.
Which means you can't just give the receiver ten yards and expect to tackle him before he gains a single yard after the catch. after the catch. On the touchdown play, I don't even blame Griffin much for missing the tackle. But he wasn't even in the camera's view from the beginning of that play until the receiver had the ball. He started ten yards back, then he backpedaled. The Vikings sent six guys at the QB and he didn't need to take even three steps back. He completed a nine yard pass doing nothing more than standing up and rifling the ball.
And that's enough for the night, and the weekend. We'll see you Monday, when we'll be back talking about the Twins.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Touching Base
Hey everyone,
Sorry I haven't written much this week. Part of the reason is that I'm really struggling to the the Sept GameDay issue out the door, but it's also because there have been two unforeseen developments that have gobbled up time, Pac Man style.
1. I got an iPhone on Friday. I haven't found a time waster this impactful since, well, probably since blogging. I just love the damn thing but I spend the whole weekend learning all it's little secrets and battling AT&T to get it activated.
2. Flash Gordon was released on DVD last week. Words cannot express my delight at spending Tuesday night watching this with my kids. All you really need to know about it is that if you check out the IMDB.com page, the lead actor doesn't have a submitted picture. Nor does the lead actress. Or fully 2/3 of the cast.
And yet it was one of the most delightfully bad movies of my youth, and after watching it almost 30 years later, it's both better and worse than I remembered. I don't know how a movie with such terrible special effects, forced dialogue and automaton acting can still be so entertaining. Add all that to a soundtrack from Queen and you can almost come to the conclusion that they were trying to make another Rocky Horror Picture Show. And frankly, I think the theater dorks just beat the geeks to the punch on that one.
So anyway, I'm not writing baseball tonight. But by Monday I'll have the 2008 GM Cheat Sheet up on the site, so you can start working on next year's team.
You know, this was
Sorry I haven't written much this week. Part of the reason is that I'm really struggling to the the Sept GameDay issue out the door, but it's also because there have been two unforeseen developments that have gobbled up time, Pac Man style.
1. I got an iPhone on Friday. I haven't found a time waster this impactful since, well, probably since blogging. I just love the damn thing but I spend the whole weekend learning all it's little secrets and battling AT&T to get it activated.
2. Flash Gordon was released on DVD last week. Words cannot express my delight at spending Tuesday night watching this with my kids. All you really need to know about it is that if you check out the IMDB.com page, the lead actor doesn't have a submitted picture. Nor does the lead actress. Or fully 2/3 of the cast.
And yet it was one of the most delightfully bad movies of my youth, and after watching it almost 30 years later, it's both better and worse than I remembered. I don't know how a movie with such terrible special effects, forced dialogue and automaton acting can still be so entertaining. Add all that to a soundtrack from Queen and you can almost come to the conclusion that they were trying to make another Rocky Horror Picture Show. And frankly, I think the theater dorks just beat the geeks to the punch on that one.
So anyway, I'm not writing baseball tonight. But by Monday I'll have the 2008 GM Cheat Sheet up on the site, so you can start working on next year's team.
You know, this was
Sunday, August 12, 2007
On Zen, Fast Food and Third Base
I don't know exactly where this Zennish story comes from, because like most Americans, I like my Zen the way I like my fast food - quick, made to order and mostly forgetable. But the story goes something like this....
A kid is walking in the jungle and happens across a really hungry man-eating tiger looking for something quick, made to order, and mostly forgetable. The boy tries to run away but finds himself on the edge of a high, steep cliff. He quickly climbs down a couple feet on a vine, peering down at certain death both above and below, because he notices two new hungry tigers pacing at the bottom of the cliff.
And then the vine starts to slowly pull out of the cliff.
While frantically pondering his dilemna, he notices a small strawberry plant growing out of the cliff. It has one nearly perfect strawberry. And so, seconds before the vine gives way completely, he plucks it and pops it in his mouth and thinks "That is the most delicious strawberry I have ever tasted."
The lesson is, of course, unknowable, because otherwise they would just tell you the damn lesson instead of torturing both you and our little protagonist with this story. But it has something to do with getting what you can out of a hopeless situation, which brings us to third base and the Minnesota Twins.
The trade deadline passed without making any moves to upgrade that position, but the worse news is that there doesn't seem to be much hope in the offseason either. Here's a pretty good list of what you can expect to be available as far as third basemen go:
A kid is walking in the jungle and happens across a really hungry man-eating tiger looking for something quick, made to order, and mostly forgetable. The boy tries to run away but finds himself on the edge of a high, steep cliff. He quickly climbs down a couple feet on a vine, peering down at certain death both above and below, because he notices two new hungry tigers pacing at the bottom of the cliff.
And then the vine starts to slowly pull out of the cliff.
While frantically pondering his dilemna, he notices a small strawberry plant growing out of the cliff. It has one nearly perfect strawberry. And so, seconds before the vine gives way completely, he plucks it and pops it in his mouth and thinks "That is the most delicious strawberry I have ever tasted."
The lesson is, of course, unknowable, because otherwise they would just tell you the damn lesson instead of torturing both you and our little protagonist with this story. But it has something to do with getting what you can out of a hopeless situation, which brings us to third base and the Minnesota Twins.
The trade deadline passed without making any moves to upgrade that position, but the worse news is that there doesn't seem to be much hope in the offseason either. Here's a pretty good list of what you can expect to be available as far as third basemen go:
Yikes. If you don't get scared by that "AB" column, you should. There are a total of two regular third baseman on that list, but we might as well run through them all, starting at the bottom:
Abraham O Nunez is a 31-year-old utility player who fell into the job in Philly when David Bell left. He "broke through" back in 2005 when his OPS exceeded 700 (704 - but that exceeds 700) for the first time while replacing Scott Rolen in Cincinatti. The sad part is he might not even be available, as the Phillies do have an option on his contract.
Morgan Ensberg is also 31, and had great seasons in 2004 and 2005, positioning himself as a solid player for several years. (You shoulda signed that guaranteed long-term contract, Morgan). Last year, however, he hit .235 and this year he's just as bad, especially because he's also lost all plate discipline and power. Everything about his stats suggest he's done, and being designated for assignment by the lowly Astros would seem to verify it.
Since these guys are listed by OPS, 31-year-old Russel Branyan looks like a reasonable option. He's not. He's been on three teams this year, and he's hitting .197
Mike Lowell, on the other hand, is definitely going to be an option for someone. He's bounced back nicely from that slump two years ago that made eveyone wonder exactly what he had been putting in his body. He's 33 years old, and has hit for both average and power for the last two years. He'll also likely demand a four-year contract in excess of $12 million per year.
Mike Lamb has had a decent year, and a decent career so far as a platooning first baseman and third baseman. I suspect his at-bats have been limited because he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. He's been hanging around in Houston for the last few years, and he missed being a free agent by just twelve days this year. He's positioned to either be the bargain of the offseason, or the guy that gets a contract much larger than anyone anticipates.
Alex Rodriguez deserves his own entry, and will likely get it this offseason. I think we can safely assume that his upcoming $25-30 million contract won't be with the Twins.
So there you have it. The two lions below are going to be getting money the Twins likely can't match. The four lions above don't have any full-time experience, and with the possible exception of Lamb, don't look like they're much of an improvement on Nick Punto or Brian Buscher.
And so we may need to forgive the Twins if this offseason doesn't produce the result we've all been looking for, and the Twins are force to stay with their in-house options. Instead we might want to prepare ourselves for the quick, forgetable solution, even if it isn't made to order.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
Money, Denial and Facebook.
Terry Ryan assures us it's not about money. But, of course, nothing is, or so they say.
They are wrong. Money to us is like water to a fish. It so permeates everything that we don't realize it's there. I've seen gold star quality performers not get hired because they (justifiably) asked for $10000 too much per year. She was going to be responsible for a couple of multi-million dollar projects. The person she was replacing had overseen the budget swelling by half a million dollars. They hired someone that they knew would be worse.
And it swings the other way, too strangely enough. I once had a manager tell me about turning down an analyst who was overqualified. After a little probing, I realized she wasn't worried about his performance or his attitude. She just assumed that he would he would ask for more money than the job had slotted.
And it's certainly not limited to professional life. It's practically a cliche that money is the number one fight topic the first year of marriage. You simply don't understand the attitudes you carry until you share that checking account with another person.
So when Terry Ryan looks at the trade of Luis Castillo, the release of Jeff Cirillo, and the non-claim of Mike Piazza, and tells us it's not about money, I want to believe it. And I think he believes it. But I just don't believe it.
Maybe not claiming Piazza was because he knew Piazza would refuse to come here, and not because he cost $2.5 Million. Maybe losing Cirillo for nothing was because it was an easy roster move to make, and not because it saved $500,000. And maybe trading Castillo for a couple of semi-prospects was - well, I'll be honest, I don't have any idea here. Frustration with the state of the minor league hitters? Pressure to make a trade, any trade? A misguided sense of caretaking guilt? I have no idea. But maybe he had some reason other than the $2 million they would save.
But there are always other reasons, because nobody wants money to be the problem. The overpaid project manager is too cocky. The overqualified analyst will never stay. The wife is spoiled, or the husband doesn't care about the family's future. But if it wasn't for the perceived problem of money, none of those reasons would get in the way. To double-check yourself, you have to ask yourself, if it wasn't for the money, would I still do this?
And all three of Ryan's recent moves fail that test. There's no reason to not add Piazza to this lineup, or to put the team in a position where they have exclusive negotiating rights for him. There's no reason to send Cirillo to Arizona for nothing, which was made all the clearer when Brian Buscher was unexpectedly injured. And there is no reason to make this year's team worse by trading Castillo if it doesn't make next year's team better.
So don't tell me it's not about the money, Terry. Even if you believe it. Because it makes it look like you're losing it. Tell us that you couldn't justify paying $500K to watch Cirillo sit on the bench. Tell us that you wanted to save that Pizza waiver claim money for Jermaine Dye. And tell us that you were hoping moving Castillo would free up some money for another impact player that never became available.
Or hell, just tell us that after year's of scraping by, you just couldn't see the point in paying the high price of mediocrity.
And if none of these are the reasons, then find out what they were, and let us know, would you? Because we aren't going to be satisfied until we get a straight answer. And I suspect that you won't be really satisfied until you can give one.
Facebook
Ok, so one of the GameDay writers me to join Facebook. I pointed out to him that I'm 40 years old, and I don't think I get this whole online social networking thing. But he talked me into it, mostly on the promise of getting the co-ed female groupies that I've been waiting half a dozen years for.
So I joined. If you've got any hints (other than "Run away. Run away NOW!") on what the point of this thing is, and what I'm supposed to be doing. I'd sure like to hear them in the comments.
They are wrong. Money to us is like water to a fish. It so permeates everything that we don't realize it's there. I've seen gold star quality performers not get hired because they (justifiably) asked for $10000 too much per year. She was going to be responsible for a couple of multi-million dollar projects. The person she was replacing had overseen the budget swelling by half a million dollars. They hired someone that they knew would be worse.
And it swings the other way, too strangely enough. I once had a manager tell me about turning down an analyst who was overqualified. After a little probing, I realized she wasn't worried about his performance or his attitude. She just assumed that he would he would ask for more money than the job had slotted.
And it's certainly not limited to professional life. It's practically a cliche that money is the number one fight topic the first year of marriage. You simply don't understand the attitudes you carry until you share that checking account with another person.
So when Terry Ryan looks at the trade of Luis Castillo, the release of Jeff Cirillo, and the non-claim of Mike Piazza, and tells us it's not about money, I want to believe it. And I think he believes it. But I just don't believe it.
Maybe not claiming Piazza was because he knew Piazza would refuse to come here, and not because he cost $2.5 Million. Maybe losing Cirillo for nothing was because it was an easy roster move to make, and not because it saved $500,000. And maybe trading Castillo for a couple of semi-prospects was - well, I'll be honest, I don't have any idea here. Frustration with the state of the minor league hitters? Pressure to make a trade, any trade? A misguided sense of caretaking guilt? I have no idea. But maybe he had some reason other than the $2 million they would save.
But there are always other reasons, because nobody wants money to be the problem. The overpaid project manager is too cocky. The overqualified analyst will never stay. The wife is spoiled, or the husband doesn't care about the family's future. But if it wasn't for the perceived problem of money, none of those reasons would get in the way. To double-check yourself, you have to ask yourself, if it wasn't for the money, would I still do this?
And all three of Ryan's recent moves fail that test. There's no reason to not add Piazza to this lineup, or to put the team in a position where they have exclusive negotiating rights for him. There's no reason to send Cirillo to Arizona for nothing, which was made all the clearer when Brian Buscher was unexpectedly injured. And there is no reason to make this year's team worse by trading Castillo if it doesn't make next year's team better.
So don't tell me it's not about the money, Terry. Even if you believe it. Because it makes it look like you're losing it. Tell us that you couldn't justify paying $500K to watch Cirillo sit on the bench. Tell us that you wanted to save that Pizza waiver claim money for Jermaine Dye. And tell us that you were hoping moving Castillo would free up some money for another impact player that never became available.
Or hell, just tell us that after year's of scraping by, you just couldn't see the point in paying the high price of mediocrity.
And if none of these are the reasons, then find out what they were, and let us know, would you? Because we aren't going to be satisfied until we get a straight answer. And I suspect that you won't be really satisfied until you can give one.
Ok, so one of the GameDay writers me to join Facebook. I pointed out to him that I'm 40 years old, and I don't think I get this whole online social networking thing. But he talked me into it, mostly on the promise of getting the co-ed female groupies that I've been waiting half a dozen years for.
So I joined. If you've got any hints (other than "Run away. Run away NOW!") on what the point of this thing is, and what I'm supposed to be doing. I'd sure like to hear them in the comments.
Monday, August 06, 2007
Twirling, Loathing and My Digestive System
Twins Territory spent the weekend slowly talking themselves back onto the postseason bandwagon, and I joined them. And then I watched fruitless inning follow fuitless inning, growing gloomier and gloomier, and was suddenly attacked by a very strange thought:
I think I would like Paul Byrd.
Oh, not today obviously. Today I hate him with the frigid fury of a half-mile deep glacier. I might even go as far as to say I loathe him, and I say "loathe" in an especially loathful way - it practically slithers out of my mouth. That's the reaction Byrd earned with his performance in one of the top five most critical games of the year.
But, really, you can't help but admire the guy in an 'everyman' kinda way. Just look at his career, would you? He mostly worked out of the bullpen his first several years in the majors, but had had one great half-year in his first full year stint as a starter. That earned him his only trip to the All-Star game, though nobody trusted him enough to let him pitch. Then he regressed. But he rejuvenated himself as a 30-year-old, regressed again last year, and has twirled his way to a 4.33 ERA this year.
And judging by last night, I'm choosing that last verb carefully. He hasn't "thrown" or "hurled", and even "pitched" doesn't quite describe it. Byrd twirls - changing speeds, inside-out, high-low, and nibbling corners. Watching him against your team is maddening, and I imagine that batting against him must lead to thoughts of senseless violence.
So last night, I tried to watch him from a more objective, appreciative point of view, and a sort of Zen tranquility eventually enveloped me. Granted, it was a seething Zen tranquility, and if maintained for any extended period of time, would lead to ulcers. To be honest, it was a pretty bitter tranquility. But I still preferred it to the acid-refluxing rage a few Denys Reyes walks inspired.
But (and I'm sure you'll agree) enough about my digestive system.
Byrd pitches exactly like you would want him to, and probably how he and his 87 MPH fastball need to. For instance, batters want to "pull" balls on the inside of the plate, and they need to swing earlier to do that. So what does Byrd throw them? Fastballs, of course, so they need to swing especially early.
Those inside pitches are also what tend to end up in the bleachers, since pulling a ball means it can go a lot further. So versus those batters with power, like Mauer or Morneau, the fastball was usually a ball, just inside the edge of the plate. But for those without power, like Alexi Casilla or Brian Busher, the ball was over the plate, leading to a long fly ball.
And on the outside half of the plate? Where batters train themselves to wait a little longer with their inside-out swings? Plenty of off-speed pitches, making them wait an eternity. And almost always with some movement, bending back over the plate, darting off of it, or diving itself into a ground ball. It was more like watching a ping-pong player spin a return than a dominant pitcher lead his team to a division lead.
That's a simplified version of what happened, of course. None of that explains exactly why the Twins have been hopeless against Byrd, while most other teams in the American League have enjoyed at least moderate success. The Twins have failed against the "professional and patient" type of pitcher again and again, which is one of the reasons their bats have been so lifeless in the postseason.
And today, it's one of the reasons that Twins Territory is likely having second thoughts about that bandwagon.
I think I would like Paul Byrd.
Oh, not today obviously. Today I hate him with the frigid fury of a half-mile deep glacier. I might even go as far as to say I loathe him, and I say "loathe" in an especially loathful way - it practically slithers out of my mouth. That's the reaction Byrd earned with his performance in one of the top five most critical games of the year.
But, really, you can't help but admire the guy in an 'everyman' kinda way. Just look at his career, would you? He mostly worked out of the bullpen his first several years in the majors, but had had one great half-year in his first full year stint as a starter. That earned him his only trip to the All-Star game, though nobody trusted him enough to let him pitch. Then he regressed. But he rejuvenated himself as a 30-year-old, regressed again last year, and has twirled his way to a 4.33 ERA this year.
And judging by last night, I'm choosing that last verb carefully. He hasn't "thrown" or "hurled", and even "pitched" doesn't quite describe it. Byrd twirls - changing speeds, inside-out, high-low, and nibbling corners. Watching him against your team is maddening, and I imagine that batting against him must lead to thoughts of senseless violence.
So last night, I tried to watch him from a more objective, appreciative point of view, and a sort of Zen tranquility eventually enveloped me. Granted, it was a seething Zen tranquility, and if maintained for any extended period of time, would lead to ulcers. To be honest, it was a pretty bitter tranquility. But I still preferred it to the acid-refluxing rage a few Denys Reyes walks inspired.
But (and I'm sure you'll agree) enough about my digestive system.
Byrd pitches exactly like you would want him to, and probably how he and his 87 MPH fastball need to. For instance, batters want to "pull" balls on the inside of the plate, and they need to swing earlier to do that. So what does Byrd throw them? Fastballs, of course, so they need to swing especially early.
Those inside pitches are also what tend to end up in the bleachers, since pulling a ball means it can go a lot further. So versus those batters with power, like Mauer or Morneau, the fastball was usually a ball, just inside the edge of the plate. But for those without power, like Alexi Casilla or Brian Busher, the ball was over the plate, leading to a long fly ball.
And on the outside half of the plate? Where batters train themselves to wait a little longer with their inside-out swings? Plenty of off-speed pitches, making them wait an eternity. And almost always with some movement, bending back over the plate, darting off of it, or diving itself into a ground ball. It was more like watching a ping-pong player spin a return than a dominant pitcher lead his team to a division lead.
That's a simplified version of what happened, of course. None of that explains exactly why the Twins have been hopeless against Byrd, while most other teams in the American League have enjoyed at least moderate success. The Twins have failed against the "professional and patient" type of pitcher again and again, which is one of the reasons their bats have been so lifeless in the postseason.
And today, it's one of the reasons that Twins Territory is likely having second thoughts about that bandwagon.
Sunday, August 05, 2007
Catching Up
I left for a baseball-themed vacation last Tuesday morning, which is why I've been away, and just arrived home about an hour ago. So, did I miss anything?
Monday, July 30, 2007
The 8-Ball Answers: Moving Castillo
It’s being reported by both local and national sources that Luis Castillo is being traded to the Mets for a couple second-tier prospects, C Drew Butera and OF Dustin Martin. The trade raises all kinds of question, so let’s grab the Magic 8-Ball and see what it has to say….
Is this the best Terry Ryan could do?
Definitely Yes
Castillo's value has been apparent since Friday, when Tadahito Iguchi and Kenny Lofton were each traded for an A-ball prospect. You could argue that Ryan got twice as much as he probably should have.
Yeah, but I looked at these guys stats, and don’t they suck?
Ask Again Later
Butera is a 23-year-old in AA who was promoted earlier this year after having some success at High-A ball. He’s taking it on the chin in his exposure there, hitting just .195 so far in 113 at-bats. Of more concern is his history, because he hasn't hit for average in his two-year professional career.
Martin is hitting .287, but he's not hitting for power, and he's also 23, and he's doing so in High A ball. Again, he doesn't profile as anything close to a top prospect.
But as someone who has criticized Ryan's trades in the past, I gotta say, you do NOT pass judgement on these things right away. I ripped Ryan several years ago for giving away Brian Buchanan for a utility infielder in A-Ball. That ended up being Jason Bartlett. I wondered aloud if they couldn't get something more substantial for JC Romero than a middle infielder way down on the Angels' organizational depth chart. That ended up being Alexi Casilla. And I wondered why they bothered to include a fragile left-hander in the AJ Pierzynski trade, who was obviously Francisco Liriano.
After you wear enough egg, you learn. When Ryan makes a trade that he isn't forced to make, and he gets guys low in the minors that look suspect, keep your mouth shut and give him the benefit of the doubt. He's certainly earned it.
Does This Mean They're Giving Up On The Season?
Don't Count On It
Castillo certainly was valuable in his role. His defense was overrated due to his errorless streak, but he did two things well - got on base and raised his level of play when he became interested. But there are a couple things to consider:
1. Ryan may be trying to walk a fine line. The team isn't good enough, and the players available on the trade market aren't impactful enough, to convince him that any deal is necessarily going to be a difference maker. By moving Castillo, he leverages an asset that he feels he can replace with one of several different pieces - Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher or Matt Tolbert. He also helps the team in the future (albeit the distant future) without sacrificing much for the present.
Personally, I don't see a suitable substitute on the roster, which brings us to the next point....
2. The other shoe may soon drop. Why would trading away Castillo be necessary for a different trade? Well, he may see another available second baseman that is a better fit for the Twins, providing more power or better at-bats, and at a smaller price tag. I certainly do. Or (and I think this is more likely) he felt like he needed to free up some payroll dollars to pay someone a little more expensive that could have a greater impact.
You'll recall that Ryan went this route in 2001, trying to shuffle players to upgrade his pitching staff, bullpen and right fielder, but failed after completing 2/3 of the trades. Rumor had it that the last piece - trading for Shannon Stewart - fell through because the Blue Jays delayed until they just ran out of time. If this is the plan, let's hope Ryan has found a more competent trading partner than Gord Ash.
So is this a good trade or not?
Outlook Not So Good
It doesn't do anything to improve this this year, and it doesn't do anything to improve next year, and those should be issues 1A and 1B on any list of priorities. The franchise seemingly hasn't made up it's mind, with less than 24 hours to go. Or at least, if they have, this trade doesn't indicate it.
If they're going for it this year, then announce that, and commit moving a prospect for an impact player. If they're looking to the future, they should be finding out if they have a realistic chance of keeping Torii Hunter next year, and that means entering into negotiations quickly to find out if Hunter and the Twins are in the same ballpark. If not, they need to shop him in a hurry.
They've done neither with this trade. Unless it is followed by another, it feels like a wasted opportunity, and will likely be interpreted as a white flag by the fans and the team. And waving a white flag with 60 games left to go should get a team more than a couple of minor league sleepers.
Is this the best Terry Ryan could do?
Definitely Yes
Castillo's value has been apparent since Friday, when Tadahito Iguchi and Kenny Lofton were each traded for an A-ball prospect. You could argue that Ryan got twice as much as he probably should have.
Yeah, but I looked at these guys stats, and don’t they suck?
Ask Again Later
Butera is a 23-year-old in AA who was promoted earlier this year after having some success at High-A ball. He’s taking it on the chin in his exposure there, hitting just .195 so far in 113 at-bats. Of more concern is his history, because he hasn't hit for average in his two-year professional career.
Martin is hitting .287, but he's not hitting for power, and he's also 23, and he's doing so in High A ball. Again, he doesn't profile as anything close to a top prospect.
But as someone who has criticized Ryan's trades in the past, I gotta say, you do NOT pass judgement on these things right away. I ripped Ryan several years ago for giving away Brian Buchanan for a utility infielder in A-Ball. That ended up being Jason Bartlett. I wondered aloud if they couldn't get something more substantial for JC Romero than a middle infielder way down on the Angels' organizational depth chart. That ended up being Alexi Casilla. And I wondered why they bothered to include a fragile left-hander in the AJ Pierzynski trade, who was obviously Francisco Liriano.
After you wear enough egg, you learn. When Ryan makes a trade that he isn't forced to make, and he gets guys low in the minors that look suspect, keep your mouth shut and give him the benefit of the doubt. He's certainly earned it.
Does This Mean They're Giving Up On The Season?
Don't Count On It
Castillo certainly was valuable in his role. His defense was overrated due to his errorless streak, but he did two things well - got on base and raised his level of play when he became interested. But there are a couple things to consider:
1. Ryan may be trying to walk a fine line. The team isn't good enough, and the players available on the trade market aren't impactful enough, to convince him that any deal is necessarily going to be a difference maker. By moving Castillo, he leverages an asset that he feels he can replace with one of several different pieces - Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher or Matt Tolbert. He also helps the team in the future (albeit the distant future) without sacrificing much for the present.
Personally, I don't see a suitable substitute on the roster, which brings us to the next point....
2. The other shoe may soon drop. Why would trading away Castillo be necessary for a different trade? Well, he may see another available second baseman that is a better fit for the Twins, providing more power or better at-bats, and at a smaller price tag. I certainly do. Or (and I think this is more likely) he felt like he needed to free up some payroll dollars to pay someone a little more expensive that could have a greater impact.
You'll recall that Ryan went this route in 2001, trying to shuffle players to upgrade his pitching staff, bullpen and right fielder, but failed after completing 2/3 of the trades. Rumor had it that the last piece - trading for Shannon Stewart - fell through because the Blue Jays delayed until they just ran out of time. If this is the plan, let's hope Ryan has found a more competent trading partner than Gord Ash.
So is this a good trade or not?
Outlook Not So Good
It doesn't do anything to improve this this year, and it doesn't do anything to improve next year, and those should be issues 1A and 1B on any list of priorities. The franchise seemingly hasn't made up it's mind, with less than 24 hours to go. Or at least, if they have, this trade doesn't indicate it.
If they're going for it this year, then announce that, and commit moving a prospect for an impact player. If they're looking to the future, they should be finding out if they have a realistic chance of keeping Torii Hunter next year, and that means entering into negotiations quickly to find out if Hunter and the Twins are in the same ballpark. If not, they need to shop him in a hurry.
They've done neither with this trade. Unless it is followed by another, it feels like a wasted opportunity, and will likely be interpreted as a white flag by the fans and the team. And waving a white flag with 60 games left to go should get a team more than a couple of minor league sleepers.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Weekend Notes
Losing Wiggy
The Twins were apparantly interested in Ty Wigginton, so there's going to be some trashing of Terry Ryan if the Twins don't get the bat they need. But there was virtually no way the Twins were going to get that particular deal done.
Tampa Bay clearly wanted some help for their bullpen, and once Dan Wheeler was offered, the only card the Twins could've played to trump it was Pat Neshek. Wheeler is essentially equivalent to Juan Rincon, including having a bit of a meltdown this year. But Wheeler recovered, Rincon didn't, and Tampa Bay had an easy decision.
What's His Name....
Of course, with Ty Wigginton on his way to Houston, the Astros designated Morgan Ensberg for assignment. Ensberg is a player that the Twins had previously show some interest in, but in Sunday's radio show, it didn't exactly sound like he was at the forefront of Terry Ryan's mind.
When asked about the Wigginton trade, Ryan started rattling off the names of the Astro's infielders, but completely stalled when he got to Ensberg. He actually referred to him as "Whathisname...."
Divine Intervention
Saturday night, I had this vision of Terry Ryan, struggling with the decision of whether to buy or to sell at the tradeline. In desperation, he looks up to he heavens, beseeching the Lord for a sign…
And as Tyner’s ball slips over the bullpen wall, he says “Oh! Well. That’ll do.”
More on Tyner's Shot
Congrats to Regina. She got her wish, though just barely. One might really be more impressive than 756. And I won't be surprised if One exceeds 756 in communal joy, though likely not in communal relief.
The Twins were apparantly interested in Ty Wigginton, so there's going to be some trashing of Terry Ryan if the Twins don't get the bat they need. But there was virtually no way the Twins were going to get that particular deal done.
Tampa Bay clearly wanted some help for their bullpen, and once Dan Wheeler was offered, the only card the Twins could've played to trump it was Pat Neshek. Wheeler is essentially equivalent to Juan Rincon, including having a bit of a meltdown this year. But Wheeler recovered, Rincon didn't, and Tampa Bay had an easy decision.
What's His Name....
Of course, with Ty Wigginton on his way to Houston, the Astros designated Morgan Ensberg for assignment. Ensberg is a player that the Twins had previously show some interest in, but in Sunday's radio show, it didn't exactly sound like he was at the forefront of Terry Ryan's mind.
When asked about the Wigginton trade, Ryan started rattling off the names of the Astro's infielders, but completely stalled when he got to Ensberg. He actually referred to him as "Whathisname...."
Divine Intervention
Saturday night, I had this vision of Terry Ryan, struggling with the decision of whether to buy or to sell at the tradeline. In desperation, he looks up to he heavens, beseeching the Lord for a sign…
And as Tyner’s ball slips over the bullpen wall, he says “Oh! Well. That’ll do.”
More on Tyner's Shot
Congrats to Regina. She got her wish, though just barely. One might really be more impressive than 756. And I won't be surprised if One exceeds 756 in communal joy, though likely not in communal relief.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Depressing Early Quote on the 2B Market
A couple of buyer-seller trade deadline deals happened earlier today, and they're significant to Twins fans who think that 'selling' at the trade deadline is going to bring some significant returns. They don't demonstrat much of a market for Luis Castillo.
The first deal sent Tadahto Iguchi to the Philadelphia Phillies for Michael Dubee. The Phillies were one of three teams looking for second basemen at the deadline, with the Mets and the Padres being the other two. Unfortunately for the Twins, there are also plenty of players available:
Castillo is listed there in the middle of the bunch. In actuality, I think he's considered more valuable than Iguchi, and at about the same level as Grudzielanek and Loretta. But he certainly isn't head and shoulders above that crowd.
So what did the White Sox get in return? Dubee is a 21-year-old anA ball minor league reliever. His stats look fine, but that still makes him just an A ball minor league reliever. Kinda like Eduardo Morlan in Fort Myers. Oh, you don't know Morlan? My point exactly. (Actually, it looks like Morlan is significantly better than Dubee.)
The other trade was Kenny Lofton to the Indians from the Texas Rangers. Lofton is definitely having a better year (.303/.380/.438) than any of the guys up there, and he plays center field, a tougher position. The Indians gave up Max Ramirez, a 22-year-old catcher who is slugging the heck out of the ball - wait for it - in A ball. I don't mean to knock Ramirez, who looks like he could be pretty good - wait for it, wait for it again - in 2010.
For Twins fans who think that dumping some of the smaller name players like Silva or Castillo are going to lead to immediate returns next year, this isn't good news. The Twins might - might - be able to turn these guys into some players who can be organizational assets, but immediate help doesn't seem to be the going rate.
The first deal sent Tadahto Iguchi to the Philadelphia Phillies for Michael Dubee. The Phillies were one of three teams looking for second basemen at the deadline, with the Mets and the Padres being the other two. Unfortunately for the Twins, there are also plenty of players available:
Castillo is listed there in the middle of the bunch. In actuality, I think he's considered more valuable than Iguchi, and at about the same level as Grudzielanek and Loretta. But he certainly isn't head and shoulders above that crowd.
So what did the White Sox get in return? Dubee is a 21-year-old anA ball minor league reliever. His stats look fine, but that still makes him just an A ball minor league reliever. Kinda like Eduardo Morlan in Fort Myers. Oh, you don't know Morlan? My point exactly. (Actually, it looks like Morlan is significantly better than Dubee.)
The other trade was Kenny Lofton to the Indians from the Texas Rangers. Lofton is definitely having a better year (.303/.380/.438) than any of the guys up there, and he plays center field, a tougher position. The Indians gave up Max Ramirez, a 22-year-old catcher who is slugging the heck out of the ball - wait for it - in A ball. I don't mean to knock Ramirez, who looks like he could be pretty good - wait for it, wait for it again - in 2010.
For Twins fans who think that dumping some of the smaller name players like Silva or Castillo are going to lead to immediate returns next year, this isn't good news. The Twins might - might - be able to turn these guys into some players who can be organizational assets, but immediate help doesn't seem to be the going rate.
Buyer Beware
It’s tempting to turn this site into OTRMC (Obsessive Trade Rumor Mongering Central) this weekend, but the longer I’ve been studying this stuff, the less convinced I am of anything I read. We count on the beat writers and corporate media to use their access to bring us some hints, but I wonder if 99% of their rumors are any more credible than a bunch of sports radio callers suggesting outlandish trade ideas.
For instance, how much have we heard about Tampa Bay corner infielder Ty Wiggington? He’s ‘rumored’ to be going to the Twins or Yankees, but the more I look at the initial reports, the less convinced I am that he’s even on the market. Locally, his name is mentioned because of conversations with members of the team. Like who? Does this mean La Velle E Neal heard Torii Hunter mention his name? And is that based mostly on last year’s Wigginton rumors which, oh yeah, didn’t amount to anything?
He’s also been mentioned several times in the New York papers, usually linked to a trade involving reliever Scott Proctor. But the only time I see him mentioned as a trade candidate in the Tampa Bay papers is when they’re quoting the New York or the Minneapolis papers. Where exactly is this coming from?
And I’ll give an example the other way. Did you know that the Twins were talking trade for Philadelphia Phillies slugging outfielder Pat Burrel? No? Didn’t hear anything about that? Well, they did in Philly. They were going to get Kevin Slowey. But (surprise!) it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
Here’s a few tidbits that you might find interesting about Burrel. First, his career batting average is .258. Second, he’s never had a season where he’s struck out less than 130 times (and he only played in 127 games that year). Third, he’s under contract for $12 million next year. Lastly, he has a full no-trade clause, which means that he could use it to negotiate an extension beyond that.
Oh yeah. He looks like exactly the kind of guy Terry Ryan would target.
For instance, how much have we heard about Tampa Bay corner infielder Ty Wiggington? He’s ‘rumored’ to be going to the Twins or Yankees, but the more I look at the initial reports, the less convinced I am that he’s even on the market. Locally, his name is mentioned because of conversations with members of the team. Like who? Does this mean La Velle E Neal heard Torii Hunter mention his name? And is that based mostly on last year’s Wigginton rumors which, oh yeah, didn’t amount to anything?
He’s also been mentioned several times in the New York papers, usually linked to a trade involving reliever Scott Proctor. But the only time I see him mentioned as a trade candidate in the Tampa Bay papers is when they’re quoting the New York or the Minneapolis papers. Where exactly is this coming from?
And I’ll give an example the other way. Did you know that the Twins were talking trade for Philadelphia Phillies slugging outfielder Pat Burrel? No? Didn’t hear anything about that? Well, they did in Philly. They were going to get Kevin Slowey. But (surprise!) it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
Here’s a few tidbits that you might find interesting about Burrel. First, his career batting average is .258. Second, he’s never had a season where he’s struck out less than 130 times (and he only played in 127 games that year). Third, he’s under contract for $12 million next year. Lastly, he has a full no-trade clause, which means that he could use it to negotiate an extension beyond that.
Oh yeah. He looks like exactly the kind of guy Terry Ryan would target.
Thursday, July 26, 2007
A busy "off day" for the Twins (hopefully)...
I’m not sure exactly where the rush to judgment comes from, other than it’s kind of fun. There is no evidence that MLB teams need a lot of time to arrange trades. So I stand by my assertion that Terry Ryan and the Twins have three more days to make up their mind.
But on Sunday afternoon, the Twins will know, and they’re going to want to know what chits they want to cash in. One of those chits is Torii Hunter, and there IS plenty of evidence that negotiations on contracts take a long time. If Hunter is expecting yen like the Mariners threw at Ichiro, or six guaranteed years, or something else that crosses the line from aggressive to irresponsible, the Twins should be shopping him heavily.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the we hear of a Hunter extension within the next few days, or of a Hunter trade. For the first time this season, there is suddenly a need from the Twins side for a hard deadline to these contract negotiations.
But on Sunday afternoon, the Twins will know, and they’re going to want to know what chits they want to cash in. One of those chits is Torii Hunter, and there IS plenty of evidence that negotiations on contracts take a long time. If Hunter is expecting yen like the Mariners threw at Ichiro, or six guaranteed years, or something else that crosses the line from aggressive to irresponsible, the Twins should be shopping him heavily.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the we hear of a Hunter extension within the next few days, or of a Hunter trade. For the first time this season, there is suddenly a need from the Twins side for a hard deadline to these contract negotiations.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Recharging
"These things have a way of working themselves out."
That's pretty close to a mantra for the Twins. It's a quote you're likely to hear several times per season, whether they're talking about the next roster move, the Opening Day lineup, or the next minor league promotion.
And now you can add the decision on which way to proceed at the trade deadline. The Twins have three games left to prove to Terry Ryan that there is any hope for 2007, all against wild-card leading Cleveland. By Sunday afternoon, this thing will work itself out and we'll all know the answer, I suspect. That leaves approximately 48 hours to buy or sell, and it looks like the Twins, or at least the rest of the league, are preparing for both possibilities.
I'll be happy to jump into the fray on Monday, and I'll be hard-pressed not to write more about it sooner, but tonight feels like a night to recharge. So I'm off to the front stoop, where I'm hoping to split of bottle of white wine with The Voice Of Reason™. We'll talk about the weekend, an upcoming vacation, our kids, our lives - anything really so long as it isn't an 11-run 6th inning.
And if you want to talk Twins, well, that's what MNGameDay.com is for. I count something like 20 posts yesterday from various bloggers that you can find on the Twins Blog Guide. We'll see you tomorrow.
That's pretty close to a mantra for the Twins. It's a quote you're likely to hear several times per season, whether they're talking about the next roster move, the Opening Day lineup, or the next minor league promotion.
And now you can add the decision on which way to proceed at the trade deadline. The Twins have three games left to prove to Terry Ryan that there is any hope for 2007, all against wild-card leading Cleveland. By Sunday afternoon, this thing will work itself out and we'll all know the answer, I suspect. That leaves approximately 48 hours to buy or sell, and it looks like the Twins, or at least the rest of the league, are preparing for both possibilities.
I'll be happy to jump into the fray on Monday, and I'll be hard-pressed not to write more about it sooner, but tonight feels like a night to recharge. So I'm off to the front stoop, where I'm hoping to split of bottle of white wine with The Voice Of Reason™. We'll talk about the weekend, an upcoming vacation, our kids, our lives - anything really so long as it isn't an 11-run 6th inning.
And if you want to talk Twins, well, that's what MNGameDay.com is for. I count something like 20 posts yesterday from various bloggers that you can find on the Twins Blog Guide. We'll see you tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Silva's Worth
It's a sickness that afflicts Minnesotan sports fans, and the best recent example was the week before the NBA draft. We just can't wait to rebuild. Whether it's the NFL draft, or trading KG, or throwing in the towel before the trade deadline, fans here can easily embrace the idea of giving up on the current year and looking towards next year, no matter how many times we seem to do it.
A lot of those numbers are mighty close, but I think most people would favor Garland. Certainly you would based on both players stats last year. And the year before that Garland had a great postseason run, though you could argue that Silva had just as good a year.
However, if there's one thing we've learned around here, it's that teams don't just trade players, they also trade contracts. The team trading for Garland will be plugging him into the rotation again next year, to the tune of $12 million. Silva, on the other hand, will be cut loose, facing free agency.
There are probably some teams that would rather have Garland for the race, but would rather trade for Silva for his contract flexibility. Silva might be an especially good fit for the Philadelphia Phillies, except for one thing - they traded him to the Twins in the first place. A team such as the Mariners might also make sense.
It would seem doubtful that the Twins would get a top flight offensive prospect (the Mariners have several) in return. But if Silva looks to be one of the best available arms and if a couple of National League clubs, a bidding war could produce some interesting results. And there might be some clubs a little more interested in today's start than there was a week ago.
I resist this temptation as best I can. It's important to note that even with yet another loss to the Blue Jays, the Twins are still just seven games back of the Indians, and they have 13 games to play against them. There's still plenty of opportunity for the Twins to make a run.
But I also just can't embrace giving away a prospect for a rent-a-player right now. The looming series with the Indians will be the turning point, and there are four games prior to that which will also help determine this team's fate. In the meantime, we might want to start preparing for the other option, where the Twins deal some of their impending free agents to acquire some young, cheap offense.
This deadline, you keep hearing that teams are looking for pitching, but quality starting pitching is in short supply. The best available starter right now looks to be John Garland of the White Sox, who is no big prize. In fact, I wonder how he compares to Carlos Silva this year...
A lot of those numbers are mighty close, but I think most people would favor Garland. Certainly you would based on both players stats last year. And the year before that Garland had a great postseason run, though you could argue that Silva had just as good a year.However, if there's one thing we've learned around here, it's that teams don't just trade players, they also trade contracts. The team trading for Garland will be plugging him into the rotation again next year, to the tune of $12 million. Silva, on the other hand, will be cut loose, facing free agency.
There are probably some teams that would rather have Garland for the race, but would rather trade for Silva for his contract flexibility. Silva might be an especially good fit for the Philadelphia Phillies, except for one thing - they traded him to the Twins in the first place. A team such as the Mariners might also make sense.
It would seem doubtful that the Twins would get a top flight offensive prospect (the Mariners have several) in return. But if Silva looks to be one of the best available arms and if a couple of National League clubs, a bidding war could produce some interesting results. And there might be some clubs a little more interested in today's start than there was a week ago.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Vanity of the Ks
The roof had been closed. It was a hot and humid day. He threw 116 pitches in his last start. And the Jays have a lot of power. There were lots of reasons being thrown around last night for the four home runs that Johan Santana gave up in Toronto's Sky Dome. But there's one we shouldn't ignore: Santana is giving up a lot of home runs this year.
They've been a problem all year. They're up over 50% from his career rate before the season started, and his career rate was only slightly better than average. We're used to seeing Johan's name atop leader boards, but now we find it in third place in home runs against. Second place winner Jamie Shields gave up 10 earned runs on Sunday to be the active leader. First place winner Ervin Santana was awarded a trip to AAA.
It's not necessarily evidence that Santana is somehow slipping - his ERA is still just 2.82. It's not necessarily evidence of anything, but....
Remember how a month ago, Santana threw his first shutout this year? There were lots of strange things about that game. First, there was the fact that he was challenged to do so by a Hall-of-Fame caliber pitcher earlier in the day. Then there was the fact that there was only one strikeout. And I couldn't help but wonder if Santana had changed his approach for that game, like he decided to "pitch to contact".
Could it be that Santana's pursuit of strikeouts is hurting him? And the Twins?
Tonight feels like another data point. The Twins entered the night desperate for a long outing. (Desperate enough to trust a two-run deficit to long reliever Ramon Ortiz, because he wanted to rest more effective pitchers.) They needed a win and they needed innings.
From the first inning, the general agreement is that Santana was struggling with his location. So why continue to challenge the hitters over the plate? Well, he still racked up four Ks in five innings. And gave up four home runs. And lost the game. Oh, and burned a few more innings in the bullpen.
And then there are all these home runs. At exactly the time when he's clearly chasing another pitcher (Baltimore's Eric Bedard) for the strikeout title for the first time in several years. Meanwhile, the Twins face a shortened bullpen, and could consistently use someone to go eight innings at a time, instead of six or seven. But Santana's starts are averaging slightly less than in previous years.
We pay a lot of attention to strikeouts, but we do so because it is an indicator of dominance, not because strikeouts themselves are that impactful. Occasionally a pitcher needs to strike someone out to get out of a jam, but for the most part strikeouts are vanity. Or as Crash Davis would say "fascist".
But they're also valuable financially. They're always referenced in the Cy Young race and a pretty good case can be made that Santana's Cy Young awards would've gone to someone else if he had fewer strikeouts. And besides the value that has for a future contract, a top three finish for Santana automatically kicks in a no-trade clause, which can be handy from a negotiating standpoint.
It's strange to think that fewer strikeouts might lead to better pitching, or a more valuable pitcher. But baseball is a strange game. And if we're going to be exploring the effect of a closed roof or humid air, it may not be so outlandish to look at the pitcher's approach. And the vanity of the Ks.
They've been a problem all year. They're up over 50% from his career rate before the season started, and his career rate was only slightly better than average. We're used to seeing Johan's name atop leader boards, but now we find it in third place in home runs against. Second place winner Jamie Shields gave up 10 earned runs on Sunday to be the active leader. First place winner Ervin Santana was awarded a trip to AAA.
It's not necessarily evidence that Santana is somehow slipping - his ERA is still just 2.82. It's not necessarily evidence of anything, but....
Remember how a month ago, Santana threw his first shutout this year? There were lots of strange things about that game. First, there was the fact that he was challenged to do so by a Hall-of-Fame caliber pitcher earlier in the day. Then there was the fact that there was only one strikeout. And I couldn't help but wonder if Santana had changed his approach for that game, like he decided to "pitch to contact".
Could it be that Santana's pursuit of strikeouts is hurting him? And the Twins?
Tonight feels like another data point. The Twins entered the night desperate for a long outing. (Desperate enough to trust a two-run deficit to long reliever Ramon Ortiz, because he wanted to rest more effective pitchers.) They needed a win and they needed innings.
From the first inning, the general agreement is that Santana was struggling with his location. So why continue to challenge the hitters over the plate? Well, he still racked up four Ks in five innings. And gave up four home runs. And lost the game. Oh, and burned a few more innings in the bullpen.
And then there are all these home runs. At exactly the time when he's clearly chasing another pitcher (Baltimore's Eric Bedard) for the strikeout title for the first time in several years. Meanwhile, the Twins face a shortened bullpen, and could consistently use someone to go eight innings at a time, instead of six or seven. But Santana's starts are averaging slightly less than in previous years.
We pay a lot of attention to strikeouts, but we do so because it is an indicator of dominance, not because strikeouts themselves are that impactful. Occasionally a pitcher needs to strike someone out to get out of a jam, but for the most part strikeouts are vanity. Or as Crash Davis would say "fascist".
But they're also valuable financially. They're always referenced in the Cy Young race and a pretty good case can be made that Santana's Cy Young awards would've gone to someone else if he had fewer strikeouts. And besides the value that has for a future contract, a top three finish for Santana automatically kicks in a no-trade clause, which can be handy from a negotiating standpoint.
It's strange to think that fewer strikeouts might lead to better pitching, or a more valuable pitcher. But baseball is a strange game. And if we're going to be exploring the effect of a closed roof or humid air, it may not be so outlandish to look at the pitcher's approach. And the vanity of the Ks.
Sunday, July 22, 2007
The Countdown Begins...10...9...
Sunday morning has become a sports talk junkie's second biggest dream. It's one of the few times that you can tune into three different radio stations and here sports talk. And I'm not talking about the national feeds from ESPN or Fox or whomever. I'm talking about three local station, mostly hosted by local print reporters, talking about Minnesota sports.
(I've said it before and I'll say it again - by any empirical analysis, the Twin Cities is one hell of a wonderful sports town. Sportswriters write about the Twins attendance not being up to par, or how the Gophers can't draw. But try finding another city with this size population that supports four major league teams. Go ahead - I'll even get you started with a list. And that doesn't count Gophers football, basketball and hockey. That's seven season ticket bases located in the 16th largest metropoltan area. That Minnesota somehow doesn't support its sports teams is the single biggest myth perpetuated by Twin Cities sportswriters.)
Anyway, on the one I happened to be listening to (thank gawd for Saturday night Catholic mass) one of the more curmudgeonly ones asked if it was time to quit talking about who the Twins should acquire and just sit back and start watching some baseball. And fortunately his co-host gave the only logical (paraphrased) reponse: "No, but we're almost there. It's called August 1st."
It's certainly a valid point that we've driven trade talk into the ground. And it's even more valid that we've jumped the gun talking it. Most trade deadline deals happen at the trade deadline. To do anything else requires a "buyer" paying through the nose. It's Negotiating 101 - the buyer always has time as leverage. On the 31st, there are going to be host of losing teams with role players looking to salvage something for the future.
Which is why the criticism that Terry Ryan has waited too long is so ludicrous. It takes two people to make a deal. And while every day we wait means another game starting someone like Darnell McDonald in right field or at designated hitter, it also means a better deal for the Twins, and maybe more certainty that a deal will be made.
It will likely not be a big name. The big names, like Mark Teixera or Adam Dunn, come with big price tags - and I'm not just talking about their hyper-expensive conracts. But there is a level just below that of players who aren't superstars but still can provide Ryan's description of "quality at-bats".
Up to this point, it's been assumed that the bat the Twins were looking for is right-handed, though the return of Rondell White might change that. There are at least three decent right-handed bats that are eminently available - Mike Piazza, Dmitri Young, and Reggie Sanders. The question is whether or not there are three teams that would bid against the Twins to acquire that player.
If they are, I don't see them. Either they need pitching or they need a better player than this type of role player. For the first time in several years, the Twins find themselves in a sweet spot for acquiring a significant piece at the trade deadline.
It likely won't happen until the 31st, but the sports talk junkies are going to be treated to their biggest dream.
(I've said it before and I'll say it again - by any empirical analysis, the Twin Cities is one hell of a wonderful sports town. Sportswriters write about the Twins attendance not being up to par, or how the Gophers can't draw. But try finding another city with this size population that supports four major league teams. Go ahead - I'll even get you started with a list. And that doesn't count Gophers football, basketball and hockey. That's seven season ticket bases located in the 16th largest metropoltan area. That Minnesota somehow doesn't support its sports teams is the single biggest myth perpetuated by Twin Cities sportswriters.)
Anyway, on the one I happened to be listening to (thank gawd for Saturday night Catholic mass) one of the more curmudgeonly ones asked if it was time to quit talking about who the Twins should acquire and just sit back and start watching some baseball. And fortunately his co-host gave the only logical (paraphrased) reponse: "No, but we're almost there. It's called August 1st."
It's certainly a valid point that we've driven trade talk into the ground. And it's even more valid that we've jumped the gun talking it. Most trade deadline deals happen at the trade deadline. To do anything else requires a "buyer" paying through the nose. It's Negotiating 101 - the buyer always has time as leverage. On the 31st, there are going to be host of losing teams with role players looking to salvage something for the future.
Which is why the criticism that Terry Ryan has waited too long is so ludicrous. It takes two people to make a deal. And while every day we wait means another game starting someone like Darnell McDonald in right field or at designated hitter, it also means a better deal for the Twins, and maybe more certainty that a deal will be made.
It will likely not be a big name. The big names, like Mark Teixera or Adam Dunn, come with big price tags - and I'm not just talking about their hyper-expensive conracts. But there is a level just below that of players who aren't superstars but still can provide Ryan's description of "quality at-bats".
Up to this point, it's been assumed that the bat the Twins were looking for is right-handed, though the return of Rondell White might change that. There are at least three decent right-handed bats that are eminently available - Mike Piazza, Dmitri Young, and Reggie Sanders. The question is whether or not there are three teams that would bid against the Twins to acquire that player.
If they are, I don't see them. Either they need pitching or they need a better player than this type of role player. For the first time in several years, the Twins find themselves in a sweet spot for acquiring a significant piece at the trade deadline.
It likely won't happen until the 31st, but the sports talk junkies are going to be treated to their biggest dream.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
A Shift Instead of a Reversal
72 hours ago, there was no question the Twins should be working towards this year's postseason. They were six games back (five of the wild card) with 70 games left in the season. And thirty of those games were versus Detroit, Cleveland and or some random opponent while Detroit played Cleveland.
After a three-game sweep, the temptation is to think that everything has changed. The reality is that not much has. The lead is now nine games (seven behind the wild card), but there are 67 games left, and 27 where they essentially control their rivals ability to win.
And it's not like the Tigers dominated the Twins. The Tigers eeked out three wins, partly because the Twins played some bad baseball and partly because they caught some bad breaks. And it included three quality starts by Twins pitchers, extending their streak of quality starts to seven, which bodes well for the second half of the season.
The offense, as it has all season, needs some more firepower, but that wait appears to be nearly over. Not that anything is likely to happen in the next couple of days. History suggests that a trade like that doesn't happen until shortly before the trade deadline, and it has nothing to do with Terry Ryan's predilection for patience. Either a trade deadline produces a flurry of deals or very few, but either way, there are precious trades involving buyers and sellers prior to the day of the 31st.
Which brings us to the one change that likely has happened. Prior to this series, Ryan probably would have pulled the trigger on an available deal earlier if it was there. Now, I'm not sure that is true. He may wait until the deadline gets a little closer before committing one way or the other.
Given the Twins upcoming schedule that would seem prudent. The Twins have three games this weekend versus an Angels team that looked far superior than the Twins a month ago. And after a series in Toronto, they'll face Cleveland on the road for three more games. That series concludes about 48 hours before the trade deadline, which should provide plenty of time to make a trade, be it as a buyer or seller.
Think that might be cutting it a little close? Well, consider how much has changed in the last 72 hours.
After a three-game sweep, the temptation is to think that everything has changed. The reality is that not much has. The lead is now nine games (seven behind the wild card), but there are 67 games left, and 27 where they essentially control their rivals ability to win.
And it's not like the Tigers dominated the Twins. The Tigers eeked out three wins, partly because the Twins played some bad baseball and partly because they caught some bad breaks. And it included three quality starts by Twins pitchers, extending their streak of quality starts to seven, which bodes well for the second half of the season.
The offense, as it has all season, needs some more firepower, but that wait appears to be nearly over. Not that anything is likely to happen in the next couple of days. History suggests that a trade like that doesn't happen until shortly before the trade deadline, and it has nothing to do with Terry Ryan's predilection for patience. Either a trade deadline produces a flurry of deals or very few, but either way, there are precious trades involving buyers and sellers prior to the day of the 31st.
Which brings us to the one change that likely has happened. Prior to this series, Ryan probably would have pulled the trigger on an available deal earlier if it was there. Now, I'm not sure that is true. He may wait until the deadline gets a little closer before committing one way or the other.
Given the Twins upcoming schedule that would seem prudent. The Twins have three games this weekend versus an Angels team that looked far superior than the Twins a month ago. And after a series in Toronto, they'll face Cleveland on the road for three more games. That series concludes about 48 hours before the trade deadline, which should provide plenty of time to make a trade, be it as a buyer or seller.
Think that might be cutting it a little close? Well, consider how much has changed in the last 72 hours.
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