Last offseason was a disappointing one for many Twins fans – but only to those that didn’t want to pay attention to the economic realities the team faced. The Twins had a $140 million team and only had about $110 million in their budget. Indeed, when we suggested that payroll would only increase about $14 million, we were savaged. It increased about $17M and ended up being a frustrating offseason for the organization, the team and their fans.
So what should it be this year? If you want to take an educated guess at the budget, start by looking at the salary level for the last decade (according to USAToday):
Year Payroll % Change
2011 $ 112,737,000 +16%
2010 $ 97,559,166 +49%
2009 $ 65,299,266 +15%
2008 $ 56,932,766 -20%
2007 $ 71,439,500 +13%
2006 $ 63,396,006 +13%
2005 $ 56,186,000 +5%
2004 $ 53,585,000 -3%
2003 $ 55,505,000 +38%
2002 $ 40,225,000 +67%
2001 $ 24,130,000 +54%
2000 $ 15,654,500
The only time that payroll has really dropped, there was a giant extenuating circumstance. Just prior to spring training in 2008, the Twins decide to trade away Johan Santana, rather than have his walk year cause a possible distraction. Santana would have made over $13M, which would have kept payroll about even. By the time they freed up that money, it couldn’t be spent on free agents, because any good free agent had already signed.
Furthermore, those 2008 salary numbers do not include an extra $8.75M that were paid in signing bonuses to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer that offseason. So even that year, it isn’t clear that the Twins planned to cut payroll. It just happened, and they took a big chunk of that leftover money and invested it in future contracts.
That’s why, initially, I was projecting a payroll level of about $120 million this year. That represents just a 6% increase, which they have generally exceeded. However, they Twins may also need to be reserving some extra cash for the MLB June draft, in which they have the 2nd overall pick. Even a $7 million increase seemed like a conservative estimate.
Until LaVelle E Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, in which Pohlad hinted it would be less than $115 million.
I’m shocked by that revelation but more shocked by how little reaction there is to it. Really? We’re upset last year because payroll only went up 16% and this year resigned to it going down?
For the record there is no reason the Twins payroll and revenues should be lower this year than last. A major league club’s revenue consist of two sources: local and shared. There is no evidence that shared revenue is going down by evidenced by the increase in payrolls across the board in MLB. Indeed, a higher and higher percentage of clubs revenues are coming from these shared sources such as MLB Advanced Media.
Will local revenues go down? TV won’t – that’s a long term deal. So is radio. Ticket prices are remaining steady. Some season tickets likely won’t be renewed, but the Twins have a waiting list of 3000 names and don’t expect to get all the way through it, so that number is steady too.
Did the team “stretch” too much last year and need to come down? Hardly. There was some evidence that they exceeded their budget when they signed Pavano to his $8M contract, but they also saved $3M by trading away Delmon Young and Jim Thome.
The final reason I’ve heard suggested is that the Twins now need to start paying into revenue sharing instead of getting money out. Supposedly (and I have no reason to doubt these numbers too much) the Twins used to received $20 million from revenue sharing and now must pay $20 million into it.
But here’s the thing – that’s not a $40 million shift THIS year. If the Twins were getting $20 mllion, it was back when their revenues were ludicrously low. If they’re paying $20 million this year, then they certainly paid that much last year, since it’s a reflection of the team’s local revenues. If revenue sharing wasn’t a problem in 2010 and 2011, why would it be this year?
The suggestion that the Twins need to scale back is silly. The Twins have several of their own player that they need to re-sign – fixtures like Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan and Jason Kubel. And the free agent market, while thin at many hitting positions is thick with good ideas among the pitching names. The Twins can certainly use that money, and should.
Thursday, October 06, 2011
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 8
Tonight Aaron and I had our most contentious podcast at Bunny's in St. Louis Park - and I don't think Kevin Slowey's name came up even once. Topics included the Twins payroll in 2012, the chat Bill Smith had last night, how much we trust Twins rookies and the Twins efforts at getting power arms.
Here are:
Here are:
- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Greatest. Baseball. Night. Ever.
Tonight started as a baseball junkie’s dream. It was the first round of the NCAA tournament, except it was rarer, impromptu, a month’s coincidences in the making.
And then it got better, making the NCAA buzzer beaters look pedestrian. I got to watch it start to unfold from a distance – from the ballpark – which could not have been a better place.
First, the Twins finished up their year from hell with a slice of heaven. The final homestand included some of the best weather of the year, and the final game may have been the nicest night in Target Field this season. The Twins responded with one of the most entertaining games of the year.
Carl Pavano pitched a complete game shutout, except that he couldn’t know it was a win until after he had departed from the mound. Last year's bulldog mentality, which dissolved in frustration so many times this year, was on full display in the eighth inning. A leadoff triple put the shutout and game in doubt, but Pavano got the next two batters to ground out weakly to him before a nice fielding play by Valencia shut down that opportunity.
It took 162 games, but the Twins fielders finally looked like they knew what they were doing. There was a spinning play by Trevor Plouffe, two great throws to second base for outs by Drew Butera and a full speed dive by Ben Revere. It was marvelous.
Finally, there was Denard Span, who sounds like he’s having a crisis of confidence in his club and possibly his own brain. He gets to pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth, gets a double and then is driven in by Plouffe who certainly had his own confidence crises this year. The final scene is a bunch of grown men act like boys, celebrating way too much for a 63rd win. And we loved it.
Meanwhile I was trying to keep up with the scoreboard in right center. The Tigers had come back against the Indians, stranding the Tribe under .500 and giving me a win in a friendly season-long wager. But most eyes were on the four games with wild card implications.
One was a blowout – the Cardinals would surive to play at least a game 163. The Rays game looked similarly over, as they were down 7-0 to the Yankees. The other two games had just a one-run spread. Boston was winning – but was in a rain delay that could go late into the night. And the Braves were hanging on against the Phillies.
Then the baseball gods started playing some crazy dice. First, they made the Rays game infinitely more interesting with some wildness and a bit of thunder from the bat of the Greek hero Longoria. In addition, before I left my seat I was seeing tweets about a meltdown for the Braves which was sending that game into extra innings.
Finally, on the walk back to the car, my phone was notifying me that the Rays had ALSO pushed their game into extra innings with a home run with two outs (and two strikes) in the bottom of the ninth. It turns out it was even better than that. Dan Johnson (from Blaine) yanked his home run barely over the fence just inside the right foul pole in a part of Tropicana field that juts inward like a design flaw.
And STILL, it got better.
As I walk into my bedroom, The Voice of Reason™ is celebrating her Phils win over the Braves in 13 innings. Philadelphia was once voted the most hostile city in the US – and responded with pride. I guaranteed you they took great pleasure in knocking an arch-nemesis out of the playoffs, especially when the Braves had a three game lead with five games to play.
Our attention turned to the Yankees and Rays, who battlee with both teams struggling to make the big play. The Red Sox looked like they were going to live to play at least one more day when they had Papelbon on the mound with two outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth.
And then within about four minutes, all hell broke loose. The Rays made a couple of slick defensive plays to get out of a jam, while Papelbon gave up a two doubles to blow the save. (If you’re keeping count, that was the third blown save in the four crucial games.) Then the Red Sox lost on a line drive that Carl Crawford missed catching by – an inch? A fraction of an inch? By so little you can’t believe he couldn’t catch it.
Which sets off a celebration in Tampa Bay (Crawford’s team last year, by the way) – despite them being in the bottom of the 13th of their own game. And I don’t mean just the fans – I mean the players and the coaches, all of whom know that at the very least they’ll be playing Game 163.
And within about 30 seconds, Longoria hits his second home run – a line drive that sneaks just over the wall and just inside the LEFT field foul pole in the other part of Tropicana field that juts inward like a design flaw.
My Twitter feed has an orgasm. So, nearly, did Harold Reynolds and Dan Plesac on the MLB Network. If you haven’t seen the video of those two analysts freaking out – silently, because they were off camera and didn’t want to interrupt the breaking news – go ye and seek it out.
Yes, I went with “ye.” That’s what this night has reduced me to – Olde English. And now we get into four more weeks of baseball where the stakes are raised even higher? Yes. Yes we do. But it can’t get any better.
(Can it?)
And then it got better, making the NCAA buzzer beaters look pedestrian. I got to watch it start to unfold from a distance – from the ballpark – which could not have been a better place.
First, the Twins finished up their year from hell with a slice of heaven. The final homestand included some of the best weather of the year, and the final game may have been the nicest night in Target Field this season. The Twins responded with one of the most entertaining games of the year.
Carl Pavano pitched a complete game shutout, except that he couldn’t know it was a win until after he had departed from the mound. Last year's bulldog mentality, which dissolved in frustration so many times this year, was on full display in the eighth inning. A leadoff triple put the shutout and game in doubt, but Pavano got the next two batters to ground out weakly to him before a nice fielding play by Valencia shut down that opportunity. It took 162 games, but the Twins fielders finally looked like they knew what they were doing. There was a spinning play by Trevor Plouffe, two great throws to second base for outs by Drew Butera and a full speed dive by Ben Revere. It was marvelous.
Finally, there was Denard Span, who sounds like he’s having a crisis of confidence in his club and possibly his own brain. He gets to pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth, gets a double and then is driven in by Plouffe who certainly had his own confidence crises this year. The final scene is a bunch of grown men act like boys, celebrating way too much for a 63rd win. And we loved it.
Meanwhile I was trying to keep up with the scoreboard in right center. The Tigers had come back against the Indians, stranding the Tribe under .500 and giving me a win in a friendly season-long wager. But most eyes were on the four games with wild card implications.
One was a blowout – the Cardinals would surive to play at least a game 163. The Rays game looked similarly over, as they were down 7-0 to the Yankees. The other two games had just a one-run spread. Boston was winning – but was in a rain delay that could go late into the night. And the Braves were hanging on against the Phillies.
Then the baseball gods started playing some crazy dice. First, they made the Rays game infinitely more interesting with some wildness and a bit of thunder from the bat of the Greek hero Longoria. In addition, before I left my seat I was seeing tweets about a meltdown for the Braves which was sending that game into extra innings.
Finally, on the walk back to the car, my phone was notifying me that the Rays had ALSO pushed their game into extra innings with a home run with two outs (and two strikes) in the bottom of the ninth. It turns out it was even better than that. Dan Johnson (from Blaine) yanked his home run barely over the fence just inside the right foul pole in a part of Tropicana field that juts inward like a design flaw.
And STILL, it got better.
As I walk into my bedroom, The Voice of Reason™ is celebrating her Phils win over the Braves in 13 innings. Philadelphia was once voted the most hostile city in the US – and responded with pride. I guaranteed you they took great pleasure in knocking an arch-nemesis out of the playoffs, especially when the Braves had a three game lead with five games to play.
Our attention turned to the Yankees and Rays, who battlee with both teams struggling to make the big play. The Red Sox looked like they were going to live to play at least one more day when they had Papelbon on the mound with two outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth.
And then within about four minutes, all hell broke loose. The Rays made a couple of slick defensive plays to get out of a jam, while Papelbon gave up a two doubles to blow the save. (If you’re keeping count, that was the third blown save in the four crucial games.) Then the Red Sox lost on a line drive that Carl Crawford missed catching by – an inch? A fraction of an inch? By so little you can’t believe he couldn’t catch it.
Which sets off a celebration in Tampa Bay (Crawford’s team last year, by the way) – despite them being in the bottom of the 13th of their own game. And I don’t mean just the fans – I mean the players and the coaches, all of whom know that at the very least they’ll be playing Game 163.
And within about 30 seconds, Longoria hits his second home run – a line drive that sneaks just over the wall and just inside the LEFT field foul pole in the other part of Tropicana field that juts inward like a design flaw.
My Twitter feed has an orgasm. So, nearly, did Harold Reynolds and Dan Plesac on the MLB Network. If you haven’t seen the video of those two analysts freaking out – silently, because they were off camera and didn’t want to interrupt the breaking news – go ye and seek it out.
Yes, I went with “ye.” That’s what this night has reduced me to – Olde English. And now we get into four more weeks of baseball where the stakes are raised even higher? Yes. Yes we do. But it can’t get any better.
(Can it?)
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 7
...in which Aaron and John talk about Rene Tosoni's year, what Jason Kubel will find on the free agent market, whether the Twins should trade Carl Pavano, who the top five most tradeable Twins are, whether or not the Twins will/fire fire Bill Smith and who would replace him. Whew. Here are:
(And that was a SHORT podcast.)
And it all came during a TwinsCentric event at Manitou Station, which was just an outstanding place. Thanks to all who came and to Jamie Ogden (and Seth Stohs) for putting it together.
the podcasts- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)
(And that was a SHORT podcast.)
And it all came during a TwinsCentric event at Manitou Station, which was just an outstanding place. Thanks to all who came and to Jamie Ogden (and Seth Stohs) for putting it together.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Evaluating Revere
(Before we get started, make sure you check out the information on this Saturday's TwinsCentric Twins gathering this Saturday afternoon at the bottom of this story.)
In Tuesday night’s podcast with Aaron Gleeman, we argued about Ben Revere for about 20 minutes. Aaron’s point (I think) is that people are getting all jacked up about guy who hasn’t been very good. My response was that given his defensive value, his youth (23 years old), inexperience (less than a half season at AAA), and the dearth of other positive stories this year, he’s been one of the bright spots.
(It’s a debate worth listening to, I think. I’ll be honest – by the time we finish each of these podcasts, I’m both wired and exhausted. I’m also almost sure that it sucks, but I publish it anyway. The next day I listen to it, decide it sucks less, and convince myself it might be worth my time to do it again next week. We would love your feedback on Twitter at @GleemanAndGeek.)
One doesn’t need to go far to convince oneself that Revere isn’t particularly valuable, especially at the top of the lineup. His on-base percentage is just .311 which is dangerously close to Carlos Gomez territory (career OBP: .289) – and he doesn’t have the power that Gomez could occasionally display.
For all the accolades that Revere has garnered, his OPS is just 610. Gomez cleared that in both of his years with the Twins, while also playing spectacular defense and stealing bases (33 in his first year with the Twins). Plus, Gomez was even younger than Revere. But he never received the love that Revere is enjoying now. Indeed, yours truly argued Gomez was an incredible liability – a liability with upside, but a liability nonetheless.
One reason for the lovefest might be that Revere has, despite those pedestrian overall numbers, seemingly made the most of his talents. If you look at his Win Probability Added (WPA), which measures how important his offense was in winning games, he grades out about average (-.17). So he’s provided average offensive production in the context of games, while playing a premier defensive position exceedingly well (+10.4 UZR). I’m going to stick with my label last night: bright spot.
However, this raises two questions:
1. Was Revere just lucky? That WPA outperforms his OPS considerably. Did he happen to get on base and steal bases at just the right time by chance? Or is it possible there is something about “piranhas” that provides extra value at critical times? I did a quick back-of-the-napkin study that I’ll share here tomorrow.
2. How can you set me (or Aaron) straight on our obvious ignorance? I suppose you could choose the yellow-bellied way out and use the comments below, but I’ll throw another option: tell us in person at the TwinsCentric event this Saturday afternoon. The TwinsCentric crew, plus Aaron, will be hosting a get-together for Twins fans at Manitou Station at White Bear Lake for the early Twins game. We’ll even be doing a Gleeman and the Geek podcast there, complete with mic for questions from you. We’ll start around 11:30 AM and stay until…well, I guess that would be a third question. See you there.
In Tuesday night’s podcast with Aaron Gleeman, we argued about Ben Revere for about 20 minutes. Aaron’s point (I think) is that people are getting all jacked up about guy who hasn’t been very good. My response was that given his defensive value, his youth (23 years old), inexperience (less than a half season at AAA), and the dearth of other positive stories this year, he’s been one of the bright spots.
(It’s a debate worth listening to, I think. I’ll be honest – by the time we finish each of these podcasts, I’m both wired and exhausted. I’m also almost sure that it sucks, but I publish it anyway. The next day I listen to it, decide it sucks less, and convince myself it might be worth my time to do it again next week. We would love your feedback on Twitter at @GleemanAndGeek.)One doesn’t need to go far to convince oneself that Revere isn’t particularly valuable, especially at the top of the lineup. His on-base percentage is just .311 which is dangerously close to Carlos Gomez territory (career OBP: .289) – and he doesn’t have the power that Gomez could occasionally display.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 6
How can a two guys talk about the Twins for an hour and fifteen minutes and not make you want to slit your wrists? I don't know, but I think Aaron and I just did it. (Though, I'll admit, the Wilson Ramos part got me close.) We recorded last night at the Mainstreet Bar & Grill in Hopkins. Amazingly, we held off on the $0.40 wings but Aaron indulged in a few Fat Tire ales. (Don't ask what I drank. I'm too ashamed.)
PLUS, we'll be doing this week's recording of the podcast there, so you can ask us questions and tell us how stupid we are. We'll be at Manitou Station in White Bear Lake for the EARLY game of the doubleheader against the Tribe, starting about 11:30 AM. If you want to drown your sorrows for both games of the doubleheader, nobody is going to judge you. Unless by "judge" you mean "join."
- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)
PLUS, we'll be doing this week's recording of the podcast there, so you can ask us questions and tell us how stupid we are. We'll be at Manitou Station in White Bear Lake for the EARLY game of the doubleheader against the Tribe, starting about 11:30 AM. If you want to drown your sorrows for both games of the doubleheader, nobody is going to judge you. Unless by "judge" you mean "join."
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
On 2012 and Roadtrips
The Minnesota Twins released their 2012 schedule yesterday, which was a welcome distraction from, you know, 2011. There are all manner of interesting twists to it….
No Matter What Souhan Says
The Twins, who will be looking to gain some confidence, face a brutal start. Sixteen of the first nineteen games are against playoff contenders – the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers and Angels. If the Twins are anywhere close to .500 when that stretch ends on 4/25, it will be a great sign.
Sigh. I Hope The Couch Is Comfy
In June, Target Field will host the Cubs and Phillies for the first time. The scalpers will be excited about the former. The Voice of Reason™, raised in NE Philly, has already proclaimed we won’t miss a game of the latter.
I Dare You To Lick The Flagpole
The Angels play in Target Field early in the season, starting 4/9 and again on 5/7. In fact, the Twins play them nine times in their first 31 games, and then don’t see them again all year. We’ll see how they like Minnesota in the “spring.”
Ah, To Be Young, Irresponsible and Poor
The schedule has a lot of great roadtrip possibilities. For instance, there are two trips, one in July and one sandwiching Labor Day weekend, where you can drive to Chicago and then follow the team to Kansas City. Get a carload of friends to split the gas money and leverage some “friends” in each city and their couches. Time it right, and you can probably catch the Twins Low-A affiliate, the Beloit Snappers, playing somewhere in the Midwest League during your trips. And make sure that at least one leg of that triangle includes swinging through Dyersville, Iowa to see the Field of Dreams movie site. The good news: it’s also free.
And neither of those are the top three best roadtrips of the year.
Q: What’s that up there? A: Buzzards.
I’m sure the players are excited that they get to spend the weekend after the Fourth of July playing outdoors in Texas.
Also, From Lobster to Sauerkraut Balls
The third best road trip happens 8/2 through 8/8, when the Twins visit Boston and then go to Cleveland. You get to see two great parks, one historic and one that helped kick-off all the new ballparks. There is an eleven-hour drive between them that happens to go right past Cooperstown. Oh, and AAA Rochester. From old to new and from the minors to the Hall of Fame, you’re covered.
We Already Know They’ll Go 3-7. Hopefully.
The annual dreaded, interminably long, west coast road trip is in August. From 8/17 through 8/26 the Twins play 10 games in Seattle, Oakland and Texas.
Reason #4,137 To Not Have Kids
The good news is that the Twins second best roadtrip opportunity is a Great Lakes loop: through Detroit, Milwaukee and Chicago. You can take a ferry from Michigan to Milwaukee, and if you sneak away from that series a day early, you can also watch the Cubs play the White Sox at Wrigley. The bad news is that it happens in May, before school is out, and it includes only one weekend.
So, You’re Saying There’s a Chance….
The Twins have an enormously long stretch against the AL Central – AFTER the trade deadline. Starting 8/31, they play 22 straight games against AL Central teams. In fact, on 8/31, they’ll still have at least six games remaining against each AL Central opponent.
A Perfectly Good Excuse To Travel, Wasted
Looks like we don’t need to take a trip on 8/13 this year. The Twins play Detroit in Target Field that day.
Don’t Dawdle, Boys
If the division isn’t nearly wrapped up by mid-September, don’t expect a late charge. The last twelve games are against teams with which the Twins have struggled: the Tigers (6 games), the Yankees (3 games) and at Toronto (3 games).
Yet. See You There.
And the very best roadtrip? Shortly after the kids get out of school (June 19th) the Twins get to visit one of the best parks in the major leagues – PNC Park in Pittsburgh. It, like its city, is a hidden gem, overlooked because of some tough times. Load up with a Primanti Brothers sandwich or stop by the “O” for a chili dog & cheese fries before the game. Park downtown, stroll over the Roberto Clemente bridge, and walk up to the ticket window – you won’t havhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gife any trouble getting a seat and every seat is awesome. In fact, even if you get a field level ticket, make sure you check things out from the upper deck, where the low outfield wall frames the Monongahela River and the Pittsburgh skyline.
From there, it’s just a five-hour drive to Cincinnati for a weekend series with the Reds at their new ballpark. I’d like to tell you more about it, but it’s one I haven’t been to.
No Matter What Souhan SaysThe Twins, who will be looking to gain some confidence, face a brutal start. Sixteen of the first nineteen games are against playoff contenders – the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers and Angels. If the Twins are anywhere close to .500 when that stretch ends on 4/25, it will be a great sign.
Sigh. I Hope The Couch Is Comfy
In June, Target Field will host the Cubs and Phillies for the first time. The scalpers will be excited about the former. The Voice of Reason™, raised in NE Philly, has already proclaimed we won’t miss a game of the latter.
I Dare You To Lick The Flagpole
The Angels play in Target Field early in the season, starting 4/9 and again on 5/7. In fact, the Twins play them nine times in their first 31 games, and then don’t see them again all year. We’ll see how they like Minnesota in the “spring.”
Ah, To Be Young, Irresponsible and Poor
The schedule has a lot of great roadtrip possibilities. For instance, there are two trips, one in July and one sandwiching Labor Day weekend, where you can drive to Chicago and then follow the team to Kansas City. Get a carload of friends to split the gas money and leverage some “friends” in each city and their couches. Time it right, and you can probably catch the Twins Low-A affiliate, the Beloit Snappers, playing somewhere in the Midwest League during your trips. And make sure that at least one leg of that triangle includes swinging through Dyersville, Iowa to see the Field of Dreams movie site. The good news: it’s also free.
And neither of those are the top three best roadtrips of the year.
Q: What’s that up there? A: Buzzards.
I’m sure the players are excited that they get to spend the weekend after the Fourth of July playing outdoors in Texas.
Also, From Lobster to Sauerkraut Balls
The third best road trip happens 8/2 through 8/8, when the Twins visit Boston and then go to Cleveland. You get to see two great parks, one historic and one that helped kick-off all the new ballparks. There is an eleven-hour drive between them that happens to go right past Cooperstown. Oh, and AAA Rochester. From old to new and from the minors to the Hall of Fame, you’re covered.
We Already Know They’ll Go 3-7. Hopefully.
The annual dreaded, interminably long, west coast road trip is in August. From 8/17 through 8/26 the Twins play 10 games in Seattle, Oakland and Texas.
Reason #4,137 To Not Have Kids
The good news is that the Twins second best roadtrip opportunity is a Great Lakes loop: through Detroit, Milwaukee and Chicago. You can take a ferry from Michigan to Milwaukee, and if you sneak away from that series a day early, you can also watch the Cubs play the White Sox at Wrigley. The bad news is that it happens in May, before school is out, and it includes only one weekend.
So, You’re Saying There’s a Chance….
The Twins have an enormously long stretch against the AL Central – AFTER the trade deadline. Starting 8/31, they play 22 straight games against AL Central teams. In fact, on 8/31, they’ll still have at least six games remaining against each AL Central opponent.
A Perfectly Good Excuse To Travel, Wasted
Looks like we don’t need to take a trip on 8/13 this year. The Twins play Detroit in Target Field that day.
Don’t Dawdle, Boys
If the division isn’t nearly wrapped up by mid-September, don’t expect a late charge. The last twelve games are against teams with which the Twins have struggled: the Tigers (6 games), the Yankees (3 games) and at Toronto (3 games).
Yet. See You There.
And the very best roadtrip? Shortly after the kids get out of school (June 19th) the Twins get to visit one of the best parks in the major leagues – PNC Park in Pittsburgh. It, like its city, is a hidden gem, overlooked because of some tough times. Load up with a Primanti Brothers sandwich or stop by the “O” for a chili dog & cheese fries before the game. Park downtown, stroll over the Roberto Clemente bridge, and walk up to the ticket window – you won’t havhttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gife any trouble getting a seat and every seat is awesome. In fact, even if you get a field level ticket, make sure you check things out from the upper deck, where the low outfield wall frames the Monongahela River and the Pittsburgh skyline.
From there, it’s just a five-hour drive to Cincinnati for a weekend series with the Reds at their new ballpark. I’d like to tell you more about it, but it’s one I haven’t been to.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 5
In which Aaron & I review the movie Moneyball, discuss changes in AAA Rochester and discuss options for the 2012 draft. And in a surprise twist, John stays dead sober. Click below for...- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Catching A Break
It's in vogue right now to cast a critical look at moves Bill Smith has made, but he made one trade late in 2009 that snowballed into one of the Twins greatest offseasons. I reviewed it in my offseason grades:
But the Hardy [trade] was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.
Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.
As I look at the 2011 offseason, there's a move that seems similar, both in its impact and difficulty: acquiring a decent-hitting catcher. Here's why:
It addresses a significant weakness.
I've defended Drew Butera's value and I love his defense, but 375 major league plate appearances are confirming what 1630 minor league plate appearances should have made clear: he's an offensive millstone. That's not unusual for catchers, but there is a difference between a .240 hitting catcher and a .178 hitting catcher. (Hint: it's 62 points. Also, a major league career.) Butera's bat isn't just bad, it's bad even for a catcher. Of the 40 catchers with the most at-bats this year, Butera’s 439 OPS is dead last. By comparison, the median is 721.
But it’s even worse that that. In the same way your crazy uncle celebrates having watched Ron Davis, you'll be able to celebrate Drew Butera someday. The Twins have only had one player in their history with as many plate appearances and as low a career OPS (475) as Butera. Utility infielder Luis Gomez had 403 plate appearances and a 473 OPS when he played from 1974 to 1977. Before this year is over, Butera has a decent chance of passing both of those marks and laying claim to the title of worst hitting Twin of all time.
So yeah, this team could maybe use a catcher.
Allows Multiple Pieces To Fall Into Place
The other night on the Gleeman and The Geek podcast, Aaron & I debated Joe Mauer. I consider most of the stories about his year to be ugly journalism. It plays to base emotions, relies on trumped up standards, and is perpetuated by a fear of appearing soft to one’s peers.
It also ignores the biggest question: what can the Twins and Mauer expect next year? If the problem is just a knee surgery and rehab gone bad, the Twins should be able to plan on Mauer returning next year at 100% and taking on 2/3 of the catching duties, right? Right?
My bet is that they won't. Acquiring a catcher allows Mauer to slide over to first base (or some other position), where he has a better chance of remaining healthy. It can be coupled with a determination to play Justin Morneau at designated hitter, where he has less chance of throwing his body around and re-injuring his brain. And that allow the Twins to remain covered if they can hang on to either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel this offseason, instead of needing to chase both.
Just like the Hardy trade a couple of years ago, it strengthens the Twins position for the rest of the offseason. It allows them to wait on the market, knowing they have their biggest bats in positions where they are most likely to perform.
Unfortunately, it’s also very hard to do.
The Twins have some money to spend this offseason, but you can’t buy what isn’t sold. Right now, the closest guys to a “regular” catcher on the free agent market will be Ramon Hernandez and Rod Barajas both of whom are 36 years old, and platoon for the Reds and Dodgers, respectively. Their stats are fine, ideally the Twins would find someone who could play at least 2/3 of the time and isn’t on the edge of retirement.
If only there was a younger catcher, more accustomed to everyday play whose team is ready to make a change, maybe because he’s overpaid….
Turns out there is, and you saw him play this week. The White Sox have 25-year-old Tyler Flowers who finally looks like he’s relatively ready to stick in the majors. All that’s blocking him is AJ Pierzynski – and that may be literal.: he may be physically pushing Flowers into lockers and broom closets and such. Pierzynski, signed a 2-year deal with the White Sox for $8M last offseason, but $6M of it is due next year. Trading AJ would allow the White Sox to not overpay for a guy they may not even want any more, spend that money on other needs, or cut their payroll from the $127M they stretched to this year.
Would the Twins have any interest in AJ? I can’t imagine they would. But without knowing his name, he’s damn near exactly what the Twins would be looking for this offseason – a fiery, durable, relatively affordable catcher who can help several other pieces fall into place. It’s too bad history will likely keep them apart.
But the Hardy [trade] was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.
Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.
As I look at the 2011 offseason, there's a move that seems similar, both in its impact and difficulty: acquiring a decent-hitting catcher. Here's why:
It addresses a significant weakness.
I've defended Drew Butera's value and I love his defense, but 375 major league plate appearances are confirming what 1630 minor league plate appearances should have made clear: he's an offensive millstone. That's not unusual for catchers, but there is a difference between a .240 hitting catcher and a .178 hitting catcher. (Hint: it's 62 points. Also, a major league career.) Butera's bat isn't just bad, it's bad even for a catcher. Of the 40 catchers with the most at-bats this year, Butera’s 439 OPS is dead last. By comparison, the median is 721.
But it’s even worse that that. In the same way your crazy uncle celebrates having watched Ron Davis, you'll be able to celebrate Drew Butera someday. The Twins have only had one player in their history with as many plate appearances and as low a career OPS (475) as Butera. Utility infielder Luis Gomez had 403 plate appearances and a 473 OPS when he played from 1974 to 1977. Before this year is over, Butera has a decent chance of passing both of those marks and laying claim to the title of worst hitting Twin of all time.
So yeah, this team could maybe use a catcher.
Allows Multiple Pieces To Fall Into Place
The other night on the Gleeman and The Geek podcast, Aaron & I debated Joe Mauer. I consider most of the stories about his year to be ugly journalism. It plays to base emotions, relies on trumped up standards, and is perpetuated by a fear of appearing soft to one’s peers.
It also ignores the biggest question: what can the Twins and Mauer expect next year? If the problem is just a knee surgery and rehab gone bad, the Twins should be able to plan on Mauer returning next year at 100% and taking on 2/3 of the catching duties, right? Right?
My bet is that they won't. Acquiring a catcher allows Mauer to slide over to first base (or some other position), where he has a better chance of remaining healthy. It can be coupled with a determination to play Justin Morneau at designated hitter, where he has less chance of throwing his body around and re-injuring his brain. And that allow the Twins to remain covered if they can hang on to either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel this offseason, instead of needing to chase both.
Just like the Hardy trade a couple of years ago, it strengthens the Twins position for the rest of the offseason. It allows them to wait on the market, knowing they have their biggest bats in positions where they are most likely to perform.
Unfortunately, it’s also very hard to do.
The Twins have some money to spend this offseason, but you can’t buy what isn’t sold. Right now, the closest guys to a “regular” catcher on the free agent market will be Ramon Hernandez and Rod Barajas both of whom are 36 years old, and platoon for the Reds and Dodgers, respectively. Their stats are fine, ideally the Twins would find someone who could play at least 2/3 of the time and isn’t on the edge of retirement.
If only there was a younger catcher, more accustomed to everyday play whose team is ready to make a change, maybe because he’s overpaid….
Turns out there is, and you saw him play this week. The White Sox have 25-year-old Tyler Flowers who finally looks like he’s relatively ready to stick in the majors. All that’s blocking him is AJ Pierzynski – and that may be literal.: he may be physically pushing Flowers into lockers and broom closets and such. Pierzynski, signed a 2-year deal with the White Sox for $8M last offseason, but $6M of it is due next year. Trading AJ would allow the White Sox to not overpay for a guy they may not even want any more, spend that money on other needs, or cut their payroll from the $127M they stretched to this year.
Would the Twins have any interest in AJ? I can’t imagine they would. But without knowing his name, he’s damn near exactly what the Twins would be looking for this offseason – a fiery, durable, relatively affordable catcher who can help several other pieces fall into place. It’s too bad history will likely keep them apart.
Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 4
In which Aaron & I butt heads on Mauer, discuss Sept callups and meet our first groupie - a lovely baseball savvy girl named Abby. I'm not gonna lie: I have no idea how this episode turned out. But taping it was interesting.
- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)
- click on the link above, then
- click on the button to "View in iTunes" and then
- "Write a Review". THANKS.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Watching Elias
The Voice of Reason™ is often very happy with this year’s Twins seats, which are near the right foul pole. That’s because it’s often the area Michael “Dimples” Cuddyer patrols. And because of a complicated collective bargaining agreement and a secret formula, I think she’s going find herself giddy in September. Here’s why….
It sucks for a baseball team to lose a really good player as a free agent. So, as part of the collective bargaining agreement, Major League Baseball and the players union have put in place a system to compensate teams (and their fan base) that lose really good players.
At the end of each season, MLB’s statistical partner Elias ranks all the players using a top secret formula as either Type A, Type B or no ranking. If a team offers a one-year, market-fair contract (i.e. offer them arbitration) to their Type A and Type B players, but the player signs with another team, the team gets extra high draft picks in return. For instance, if they lose a Type B player, they get back a pick between the first and second round of the draft (called a supplementary pick).
~~~~~
This is one of about a dozen offseason issues about which I talked to Aaron Gleeman last night on our Gleeman And The Geek podcast. It also include what free agents the Twins might target if they lose Cuddyer and Kubel, and what they might do to overhaul the Twins middle infield. You can find all the podcasts here or listen to it on iTunes.
Gleeman & the Geek, Ep. 3
For our 3rd podcast, Aaron Gleeman and I talked 
about the impacts of the Morneau news and possible free agent options if Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave. We also debuted some opening music by James Richter. You can choose between:
- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).
We would love to hear what you think, either about the podcast or about our opinions. Either throw comments here or send me a message via Twitter. THANK YOU.
about the impacts of the Morneau news and possible free agent options if Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel leave. We also debuted some opening music by James Richter. You can choose between:
- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).
We would love to hear what you think, either about the podcast or about our opinions. Either throw comments here or send me a message via Twitter. THANK YOU.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Gush
This was first published in 2002. Today, The Chatty Chatty Princess™ is starting her first day at high school, while The Boy™ had is having his first day at middle school. Good luck guys. I'm so proud of you both, and deeply in love.
He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."
There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.
She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."
Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.
And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.
Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.
It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.
Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.
He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.
But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.
It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.
He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.
So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.
And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."
------------------------------
He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."
There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.
She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."
---------------------------------
Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.
And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.
Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.
It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.
---------------------------------
Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.
He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.
But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.
It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.
He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.
So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.
And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
The Best Hormel Row of Fame Song, EVER
Today is August 25th, and I'll be spending it at the ballpark, celebrating the anniversary of one of the dome's more unique moments....
It's 2005 and I'm attending an afternoon game with a bunch of friends from work. We've done this a few times, so by now I know the Hormel Row of Fame Song is going to illicit some boisterous karaoke. Sometime around the fourth inning, it starts.
When you are at the game
(ba-ba-ba-bum)
If you are in the lucky seat
(ba-ba-ba-bum)
By this time, the work friends and I are exchanging uncomfortable smiles. The skipping audio seems to goes on forever, but it was probably only three more times before the booth quickly faded it out. At which point I hear the guy behind me remark:
"That WOULD be a lucky seat."
It's 2005 and I'm attending an afternoon game with a bunch of friends from work. We've done this a few times, so by now I know the Hormel Row of Fame Song is going to illicit some boisterous karaoke. Sometime around the fourth inning, it starts.
When you are at the game
(ba-ba-ba-bum)
Are you in Hormel's Row of Fame?
(ba-ba-ba-bum)..
Except that this time the track gets stuck.
(ba-ba-ba-bum)..
Except that this time the track gets stuck.
If you are in the lucky seat
(ba-ba-ba-bum)
You'll win a Hor....skip
You'll win a Hor....skip
You'll win a Hor....skip
By this time, the work friends and I are exchanging uncomfortable smiles. The skipping audio seems to goes on forever, but it was probably only three more times before the booth quickly faded it out. At which point I hear the guy behind me remark:
"That WOULD be a lucky seat."
Gleeman & the Geek Podcast
Last night Aaron Gleeman and I sat down at the Scoreboard Bar and Grill over a pitcher of Grain Belt Premium and debated all things Twins for 45 minutes, including the return of JJ Hardy. Here is:
- the podcasts
- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).
We would love to hear what you think, either about the podcast or about our opinions. Either throw comments here or send me a message via Twitter. THANK YOU.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Twitter and the Twins
The Twins Embracing Twitter Is A Little Unusual. And Impressive.
I attended the Deckstravaganza, which was a top-notch event. Besides hosting fifteen of us and our guests, the Twins provided a fantastic buffet. It was a neat opportunity to meet other Twitter evangelists and get to know Chris Iles and Joe Pohlad, who lead the Twins social media efforts and were responsible for the event. It was an impressive effort by the Twins.
On Friday night, the Twins held Social Media Night at Target Field. There were several special features, including all kinds of coverage by FSN, scrolling of tweets throughout the ballpark and broadcasts, and a “Deckstravaganza” where some power Twitter users were invited to watch the game from the Twins executive deck.
I attended the Deckstravaganza, which was a top-notch event. Besides hosting fifteen of us and our guests, the Twins provided a fantastic buffet. It was a neat opportunity to meet other Twitter evangelists and get to know Chris Iles and Joe Pohlad, who lead the Twins social media efforts and were responsible for the event. It was an impressive effort by the Twins.It was made more impressive for two reasons.
First, this promotion wasn’t based on anything that the Twins can currently monetize. They weren’t advertising something that people can pay for, like MLB At-Bat apps or MLB Extra Inning packages. Nor were they using their considerable marketing muscle to promote a monetized channel, like Fox Sports North or ESPN 1500.
Instead, they were just promoting another means by which fans could follow the Twins. It would be like having a “Newspaper Night,” eighty years ago, despite not owning a newspaper. It would be bizarre for the Twins to tell everyone that they should subscribe to a newspaper – even though the Twins have zero control over how that newspaper depicts the team. Instead, the team would hope that getting daily game stories and notes columns would help people become bigger fans. Sure, there is absolutely a benefit for the Twins in that, but it’s hard to quantify.
(As a side note, as someone who was actively blogging about this team in 2002 on a daily basis, it is inconceivable that there ever would have been a “Blogging Night” a decade ago. There are so many parallels between blogging and tweeting that one could almost call tweeting “micro-blogging.” But a decade ago, that passion and independence was considered threatening, both to the teams and the media that covered them. Now it’s being embraced? I don’t know that I’ve ever felt so “old school.”)
The second reason it is so impressive is that even if the Twins figure out a way to monetize that electronic content, they won’t ultimately get to own it. All electronic content of MLB, from email addresses to MLB.com to the apps on iPhones, are the property of MLB Advanced Media (MLBAM). MLBAM is a subsidiary of Major League Baseball, owned by all 30 teams, and the revenue from it is split evenly between the teams. Those revenues are substantial. According to The BizOfBaseball.com, as of 2009, MLBAM was pulling in approximately $450M per year.
The Twins efforts on Twitter are eventually going to fall under the domain of MLBAM, along with any revenues they generate. Essentially, any efforts the Twins are making on this front are R&D efforts for MLBAM, except I assume that MLBAM isn’t funding the chicken fingers to which I was treated.
About midway through the night, The Voice of Reason asked me if I thought the Twins were accomplishing their goals of Social Media Night. I replied that I thought the goal was nothing more than to encourage Twins fans to start using Twitter or to follow the Twins if they were already using Twitter. And I think the Twins likely achieved that.
I would also like to encourage you to try Twitter, so I thought I’d pass along a couple of suggestions to those of you who are unconvinced or downright hostile. I don’t know all the crap that surrounds most people’s perceptions of Twitter but I feel very comfortable saying this: If you read blogs, you’ll like Twitter. If you listen to sports radio, you’ll like Twitter. If that sounds like you, I encourage you to try the following.
- Watch this short youtube video on how to use Twitter. I thought about having today’s entry be something similar, but this is so much better than anything I was going to crank out. It gives all the basic – setting up, finding people to follow, and finding topics you care about. (If you’re not on Twitter yet, it’s the most valuable four minutes you’ll spend this week.)
- Sign up. Give it a try. Why not? What exactly do you have to lose?
- If you’re looking for some folks to start following, feel free to start with myself, Nick, Parker and Seth. Then how about LaVelle, Joe, and Howard? And of course there is also the Minnesota Twins, Twins President Dave St. Peter, TC Bear and even the Minnesota Twins Ground Crew.
- Finally, once you get set up, the whole experience becomes twice as good with software that you can install on your PC or smart phone, which is usually free. For the PC, I love TweetDeck. For my iPhone (and iPad), there are all kinds of apps but the one I like best is “Twitter.”
This blog is off the beaten path for lots of Twins fans. We appreciate you taking that trip to find us, and this isn’t the usual fare. I’ll beg your forgiveness for that. But it’s precisely because you’re willing to get a little outside most Twins fans comfort zones that you can be the ideal Twitter user, if you aren’t already. I hope you’ll take the last couple brave steps and find a whole new way to connect with the incredible network of Twins fans.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Magic (Part 19)
"Life's like a movie, write your own ending."
It started with a decision in the spring of 1990. He asked her if their first date should be an afternoon at the Art Institute or a double-header at Wrigley Field.
"How is that even a call?" she replied.
The sun gleamed, the grass glowed underneath the ballplayers and the magical afternoon was made more so because he thought it was probably their last date as well; neither was from Chicago.
But he was wrong. Both traveled enough to occasionally gain discounted tickets and the 1000 miles between Minneapolis and Philadelphia wasn't as isolating as they both thought it would be. Or at least not initially.
Two years later, it was. So with $1000 shoved into his pocket and all his worldly possessions crammed in an '84 Honda Prelude, he moved to Philadelphia to court her. The courtship was fun, but not especially easy. First he had to find work during a recession, then she was assigned to a project out of town. And when the business world stopped conspiring to keep them apart, the tougher questions began. "Will he ever marry me? What's he waiting for?" "Is she really the one? How do I know?" The questions were more destructive than geographic distance ever had a chance to be.
On a summer trip out west, his questions were answered in the Black Hills. And on August 13th, when they were supposed to go to a Phillies game, he showed up with flowers, acted all goofy and suggested they go for a walk. And she knew her questions were about to be answered too.
Unaccustomed to being nervous, the proposal was awkward but genuine, and the response was delayed but jubilant. Standing together in the park, their future felt too large. Neither knew what to do, where to go, who to see.
"So do you still want to go the Phillies game?", he asked.
"How is that even a call?"
It wasn't a call, because the one place in Philadelphia where they both knew there was some magic that year was at the Vet. The '93 Phils, lead by blue-collar rejects like John Kruk, "Dutch" Daulton, "Nails" Dykstra and closer Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams had somehow claimed 1st place in the NL East. They'd won games at Veteran's Stadium in every conceivable manner, including one in which Williams got the winning hit in the bottom of the 10th - at 4:30 AM. Tonight they were playing the hated Mets and it seemed like as good a place as any to look for magic.
The electricity they felt made the game a secondary concern. She'll readily admit that she spent most of the game looking at the back of her hand. But the game slowly became the focal point when the Phillies lost their early lead in the top of the eighth. They scratched in a run in the bottom half, but were still down 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth.
But there was a reason this hard-nosed city loved this team. They used a crucial error by the Mets to score one run and loaded the bases with two outs. Kim Batiste, a light-hitting 25-year-old utility infielder who seemed to have a special gift for striking out, came to the plate, and.......
Grand Slam.
Pandemonium.
Magic.
This last weekend they went to a game, just like they have every August 13th now for 19 years. The magic started earlier, on a 3-hour car trip to Duluth. Is it magic to find out that pre-teen kids still enjoy forced time together as a family. Hell yes, it is. And it's magic to see them wondering at an awkward liftbridge, a beautiful northern coast and the edge of an American Sea. Every time we come north I wonder why we don't more often.
But of course, we weren't there for the view. With the Twins out of town, we were there for a ballgame. And to find more magic.
Duluth came through there, too. The Northwoods League consists of college kids playing summer ball, looking to catch the eye of scouts. Purer baseball is hard to find. Even more rare was the beautiful old venue, Wade Stadium, and enormous brick ballpark built in 1941 by the WPA. Add a perfect Minnesotan summer night, full of minor league silliness, with fireworks following the game.
It turns out, they began a little early. A pitcher's duel ended with a walk-off home run for the home team. The kids eye’s danced as the night's hero, Chris Manship (cousin of Twins prospect Jeff Manship), get beat up at home plate by his teammates.
Can magic become commonplace? When that ball was hit - when the stadium was poised to explode - The Voice Of Reason and I couldn't help but look at each other knowingly. Eighteen years later, how could we not? Maybe not commonplace, but expected. And that's not a bad way to live.
More to check out....
- Seth reached his Boiling Point yesterday.
- Tonight I'll be participating in the "Deckstravaganza" event at Target Field. It's a Twitter in-person meetup. If you would like to follow along, please search for the hashtag #Deckstravaganza or follow me on Twitter.
- The Magic Store from The Muppet Movie
~~~~~
It started with a decision in the spring of 1990. He asked her if their first date should be an afternoon at the Art Institute or a double-header at Wrigley Field.
"How is that even a call?" she replied.
The sun gleamed, the grass glowed underneath the ballplayers and the magical afternoon was made more so because he thought it was probably their last date as well; neither was from Chicago.
But he was wrong. Both traveled enough to occasionally gain discounted tickets and the 1000 miles between Minneapolis and Philadelphia wasn't as isolating as they both thought it would be. Or at least not initially.
~~~~~
Two years later, it was. So with $1000 shoved into his pocket and all his worldly possessions crammed in an '84 Honda Prelude, he moved to Philadelphia to court her. The courtship was fun, but not especially easy. First he had to find work during a recession, then she was assigned to a project out of town. And when the business world stopped conspiring to keep them apart, the tougher questions began. "Will he ever marry me? What's he waiting for?" "Is she really the one? How do I know?" The questions were more destructive than geographic distance ever had a chance to be.
On a summer trip out west, his questions were answered in the Black Hills. And on August 13th, when they were supposed to go to a Phillies game, he showed up with flowers, acted all goofy and suggested they go for a walk. And she knew her questions were about to be answered too.
Unaccustomed to being nervous, the proposal was awkward but genuine, and the response was delayed but jubilant. Standing together in the park, their future felt too large. Neither knew what to do, where to go, who to see.
"So do you still want to go the Phillies game?", he asked.
"How is that even a call?"
It wasn't a call, because the one place in Philadelphia where they both knew there was some magic that year was at the Vet. The '93 Phils, lead by blue-collar rejects like John Kruk, "Dutch" Daulton, "Nails" Dykstra and closer Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams had somehow claimed 1st place in the NL East. They'd won games at Veteran's Stadium in every conceivable manner, including one in which Williams got the winning hit in the bottom of the 10th - at 4:30 AM. Tonight they were playing the hated Mets and it seemed like as good a place as any to look for magic.
The electricity they felt made the game a secondary concern. She'll readily admit that she spent most of the game looking at the back of her hand. But the game slowly became the focal point when the Phillies lost their early lead in the top of the eighth. They scratched in a run in the bottom half, but were still down 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth.
But there was a reason this hard-nosed city loved this team. They used a crucial error by the Mets to score one run and loaded the bases with two outs. Kim Batiste, a light-hitting 25-year-old utility infielder who seemed to have a special gift for striking out, came to the plate, and.......
Grand Slam.
Pandemonium.
Magic.
~~~~~
This last weekend they went to a game, just like they have every August 13th now for 19 years. The magic started earlier, on a 3-hour car trip to Duluth. Is it magic to find out that pre-teen kids still enjoy forced time together as a family. Hell yes, it is. And it's magic to see them wondering at an awkward liftbridge, a beautiful northern coast and the edge of an American Sea. Every time we come north I wonder why we don't more often.
But of course, we weren't there for the view. With the Twins out of town, we were there for a ballgame. And to find more magic.
Duluth came through there, too. The Northwoods League consists of college kids playing summer ball, looking to catch the eye of scouts. Purer baseball is hard to find. Even more rare was the beautiful old venue, Wade Stadium, and enormous brick ballpark built in 1941 by the WPA. Add a perfect Minnesotan summer night, full of minor league silliness, with fireworks following the game.
It turns out, they began a little early. A pitcher's duel ended with a walk-off home run for the home team. The kids eye’s danced as the night's hero, Chris Manship (cousin of Twins prospect Jeff Manship), get beat up at home plate by his teammates.
Can magic become commonplace? When that ball was hit - when the stadium was poised to explode - The Voice Of Reason and I couldn't help but look at each other knowingly. Eighteen years later, how could we not? Maybe not commonplace, but expected. And that's not a bad way to live.
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More to check out....
- Seth reached his Boiling Point yesterday.
- Tonight I'll be participating in the "Deckstravaganza" event at Target Field. It's a Twitter in-person meetup. If you would like to follow along, please search for the hashtag #Deckstravaganza or follow me on Twitter.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Trading Thome
Everyone would like to see Jim Thome traded to a contender, but that’s harder than it sounds. Chances are slim the Twins could get him on the roster of a great team no matter how hard they tried. And the team most desperate for and likely to gain his services might be hard for Twins fans to stomach.
Thome can only be traded to any MLB team IF he gets through waivers, and that’s unlikely. He’s a real asset and he’s cheap, so there is almost no reason for a team NOT to claim him. In fact, not only is it highly unlikely that 29 teams would pass on him, he probably would not get past the fifth team in priority. Because if he was put on waivers today, the order would go…
Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, CHICAGO WHITE SOX…
The White Sox, you’ll recall, tried to fill Thome’s absence from their lineup by signing left-handed slugger Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56M contract. That’s been a disaster, as Dunn has posted a .164 BA from the middle of the lineup, including just 3 hits in 80 at-bats against southpaws. Thome is EXACTLY the player the White Sox need to heal that gaping wound.
There are all kinds of other interesting facets to the White Sox claiming Thome. He’s originally from Peoria. It keeps him close to his family. He has some history there, which could be both good and bad given how the White Sox basically rejected him prior to him joining the Twins. But no matter how Thome and the Sox feel about each other, there is almost zero chance the White Sox wouldn’t claim him, even if it just meant keeping him away from the Tigers.
So, for all you big-hearted folks wanting Thome to get his shot at a ring – does it change things if he’s gets the White Sox their second championship in the last seven years? I won’t think any less of you if you admit it does – cuz it kinda does to me, too.
Thome can only be traded to any MLB team IF he gets through waivers, and that’s unlikely. He’s a real asset and he’s cheap, so there is almost no reason for a team NOT to claim him. In fact, not only is it highly unlikely that 29 teams would pass on him, he probably would not get past the fifth team in priority. Because if he was put on waivers today, the order would go…
Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, CHICAGO WHITE SOX…
The White Sox, you’ll recall, tried to fill Thome’s absence from their lineup by signing left-handed slugger Adam Dunn to a 4-year, $56M contract. That’s been a disaster, as Dunn has posted a .164 BA from the middle of the lineup, including just 3 hits in 80 at-bats against southpaws. Thome is EXACTLY the player the White Sox need to heal that gaping wound.
There are all kinds of other interesting facets to the White Sox claiming Thome. He’s originally from Peoria. It keeps him close to his family. He has some history there, which could be both good and bad given how the White Sox basically rejected him prior to him joining the Twins. But no matter how Thome and the Sox feel about each other, there is almost zero chance the White Sox wouldn’t claim him, even if it just meant keeping him away from the Tigers.
So, for all you big-hearted folks wanting Thome to get his shot at a ring – does it change things if he’s gets the White Sox their second championship in the last seven years? I won’t think any less of you if you admit it does – cuz it kinda does to me, too.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Gleeman & the Geek Inaugural Podcast
Aaron Gleeman and I have noticed that we like arguing with each other about the Twins. Now we get to see if you like it, too.
Last night, armed with several big Twins stories and a pitcher of Surly Furious, we sat down at Park Tavern and talked a lot of Twins. In the sober reality of the morning, it doesn't sound half bad, so we've posted it at The Baseball Pitcher. If you're looking to overdose on Thome, Delmon or the Twins this morning, please give it a listen.
We're looking for feedback, as we are tentatively planning on doing something similar on a weekly basis, so please use the comments below or tweet us at @aarongleeman or @twinsgeek and let us know what you would do to make it better.
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Looking at 2012 Payroll
Twins Should Have Some Dough This Offseason
The bad news: it's apparent the Twins have a lot of fixes to make before 2012. The good news: the biggest traditional obstacle for the Twins - budget - isn't all that big an obstacle.
This is a marked difference from last offseason, when I spent most of the season's second half forewarning Twins fans about a brutal and disappointing offseason. It lived up to it's billing. But this year is going to be quite a bit different, thanks to some pretty big numbers coming off the books.
The chart on the right is back-of-the-napkin figuring - it'll be off by a million here or a half-million there, but it's close enough to get a pretty good big picture of where the Twins sit. It assumes that the Twins choose to retain to Alexi Casilla (as a middle infielder), Jason Repko (as a 4th OF), Glen Perkins (as a setup man), Jose Mijares (as a middle reliever) and Phil Dumatrait (also as a middle reliever). You can quibble about a couple of them, but it doesn't matter too much - their salaries aren't too significant, and their replacements would cost about the same.
Much bigger decisions loom:
The bad news: it's apparent the Twins have a lot of fixes to make before 2012. The good news: the biggest traditional obstacle for the Twins - budget - isn't all that big an obstacle.
This is a marked difference from last offseason, when I spent most of the season's second half forewarning Twins fans about a brutal and disappointing offseason. It lived up to it's billing. But this year is going to be quite a bit different, thanks to some pretty big numbers coming off the books.
The chart on the right is back-of-the-napkin figuring - it'll be off by a million here or a half-million there, but it's close enough to get a pretty good big picture of where the Twins sit. It assumes that the Twins choose to retain to Alexi Casilla (as a middle infielder), Jason Repko (as a 4th OF), Glen Perkins (as a setup man), Jose Mijares (as a middle reliever) and Phil Dumatrait (also as a middle reliever). You can quibble about a couple of them, but it doesn't matter too much - their salaries aren't too significant, and their replacements would cost about the same.
Much bigger decisions loom:
- Michael Cuddyer - The Twins will likely offer him arbitration, as it looks more and more likely he'll be a Type A free agent. That gives them the inside track to re-sign him, but that 2-year/$16 million offer they floated might be a bad harbinger. Cuddyer is going to get at least 3 years and $27M, and if he keeps hitting like he is someone might pay him $40M over four years. So if you want to pencil him back in right field next year, you better set aside at least $10M for next year.
- Francisco Liriano - He'll make around $7.5M in arbitration next year if the Twins offer it. If they don't they'll likely trade him, because someone will.
- Delmon Young - He'll also likely make around $7.5M in arbitration. Working in his favor is that the Twins will need to decide whether to offer him arbitration BEFORE Cuddy decides who he picks to play for next year. They may offer arbitration to Delmon just so they're sure they have at least one spot covered.
- There is also Joe Nathan, Matt Capps, Jason Kubel and Kevin Slowey to ponder. I'm sure they'll try to bring some of them back, but I'm less sure on the numbers they might get. We'll talk about that in some future entry.
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