Well. THAT didn't work too well.

The bad news? Our starting pitching is cooked. Oh, and my whole magic number idea doesn't seem to be working any miracles. Whoulda thunk?

The good news? Maxwell's is back, and I have a pack of friends on the patio soaking up a gorgeous indian summer night. (And the White Sox are currently tied with KC.). If the magic number budges, I'll post again, but right now I think I'm going to take my queue from Blackburn and leave this game prematurely.

The Magic Number

So I'm watching the bottom of the eighth, the Twins trail 8-6 and I'm anticipating the fifth straight loss for the Twins. On my "to do" list for the day is to prepare some things in the unlikely event of a Twins postseason appearance. So I send out an email and end it with....

Maybe talking about this will change the team's luck.

Twins win, 11-6.

Is it that easy? Frankly, I've been trying just about everything else - different shirts, different hats, watching, not watching, watching on different TVs, watching while wearing hats - even wearing hats but not while I'm watching. I've been a frantic little mouse banging my head on the walls of this Skinnerian maze in a desperate attempt for a little cheese.

Could it be that all I really needed was a little positivity?

Allright - this geek is game. Let's start with the most positive thing I can think of AND the one thing this pennant race has been missing - The Magic Number. We haven't had one because the Twins haven't nudged their way into first place, and usually one doesn't figure out The Magic Number until one is in first place. But it's not like one CAN'T figure out The Magic Number until one is in first place.

To figure out The Magic Number, you just figure out the maximum number of wins your closest competitor can get, and then figure out how many more games you would need to win to surpass it. In this case:

1) The White Sox have 84 wins with 10 games left to play, so they could end the season with 94 wins.

2) The Twins have 83 wins, so they would need to win 12 games.

3) The fact that the Twins only have nine games left is irrelevant - The Magic Number is still 12.

Let's start treating this like a pennant race and see what happens. The Magic Number is going up at the top of this post, and if it moves, I'll be updating it. How's that for optimism?

And since pennant races are meant to be watched with friends and strangers, tomorrow night I'm going to try and make it to the newly renovated Maxwell's to get my fall classic groove on. Hope to see you there. Look for a guy who is a Twins fan. And a geek. But he's going to be working like hell to keep it from being kinda sad. Really.

Flat Lining

In a baseball season full of suprises, maybe the biggest one is how little we all seem to care about a pennant race.




Frankly, I didn't think it could be this way. I waited almost a decade for a pennant race, and entering this season I feared I might be at the beginning of another long wait. Instead I was treated to players blossoming before my eyes and not one - but two! - MVP worthy seasons from the middle of the order. The excitement should only have built as summer became fall.



Instead, this site is flat lining. My attention is also flat lining. So is the team. And attendance. And TV ratings. And community interest. And it's all happening at exactly the time that it shouldn't - in a pennant race in September with a young and likeable team.



So why haven't I been blogging? Because I haven't been watching. Judging by the numbers, a lot of people aren't. And why, with the Twins still in contention, haven't I watched more than a handful of Twins games in a month? Because it's absolutely painful, that's why. And it's even more painful because all of this pain is so damn unnecesessary.



It's that last point - the "so damn unnecessary" - which makes it especially hard for the hardcore fans to watch this team right now. We're a forgiving lot. We can understand a team, especially a young team, that can't keep their head above water in the fall. Or a team that is leveled by injuries. But watching the Twins bullpen overshadow any success this team could have is a damn hard thing for a hardcore fan to accept, because a hardcore fan knows the back story.



Namely, that the Twins have had months and months to fix this problem and the general manager and manager have seemingly conspired to do as little as possible. No. "Conspired" isn't the right word. That implies that the two of them worked together to direct this little cruise over the river Styx. To create a mildewing mess like this usually requires working at odds with each other.



I understand how ridiculous this next sentence is going to be, but that's what makes it so nauseating. If Bill Smith was intentionally and covertly trying to sabotage this team's playoff chances, I'm not sure what more he could have done since May 29th. That's the day the Twins claimed Craig Breslow off waivers.



For the next three months, the Twins only addition to the bullpen was failed starter Boof Bonser, who posted an 8.74 ERA in his first two months there. The other moves were subractions - dumping Juan Rincon and demoting Brian Bass. And, not too shockingly, over the next three months, the bullpen got gassed, and starting at the end of July, they really struggled.



And yet, nothing was done, either externally or internally. No trades were completed before the deadline, even though several relievers were traded prior to it. No waiver pickups afterwards. There were no promotions from AAA Rochester, though several candidates looked viable (like Bobby Korecky and Ricky Barret). And not only did they not call-up several high-ceiling arms from the middle levels of the minors (Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama), they didn't even promote them to slightly higher minor league levels.



That inactivity changed a little at the end of August when Eddie Guardado was acquired, but in retrospect, all that really did was make it more difficult to call up one of the promising minor leaguers. Not that it had to be any more difficult. When rosters were finally expanded, the only bullpen arms that were added were Korecky, Philip Humber and Jose Mijares. The rest of them were passed over because the Twins didn't think they would have enough opportunities for them.



Blink. Blink.



Let's unpack that logic a little. In August, the Twins lost twelve games, and in eight of them, a member of the bullpen was the losing pitcher. Almost across the board, there hadn't been a single reliable pitcher beyond Joe Nathan for most of the season. In particular, the guys who had been used as setup men - Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Jose Reyes - had really fallen apart since the end of July. And yet the Twins were worried about not having opportunities for fire-throwing minor leaguers? Really? Just what opportunities were going to be in short supply? I mean, other than congratulatory post-game handshakes? Because it wasn't going to be relief opportunities.



Or was it? Because this is where our story shifts to the only person who could make Smith's festering stasis look downright visionary - manager Ron Gardenhire. It turns out that Smith was right. There were no opportunities for these guys because Gardenhire continued to trot out the same guys who have failed nearly every test they'd been given over the last month.



He also sat on his most promising set-up candidate for almost two weeks. That would be Mijares, who finally made his first appearance on the 13th and has sinced been used four times in five days. In those four appearance, Mijares has given up just two hits in 3.2 innings and has yet to walk a batter. He'll end up with the loss for last night's game partly because of Buster Keaton inspired defense. But we also might wonder why he was pulled from a tie game with a runner on third and two outs for Guerrier - who has now given up eight hits and four walks in his last 1.1 IP.



Reread those numbers at the end of that last sentence. Tally it up. Now guess what happened.



So let's review. The Twins have known since early May (when Pat Neshek was injured) that their bullpen was going to struggle, but the only moves they made were to pick up two left-handed setup guys, one in May and the other in August. Otherwise, they sat in a state of suspended disbelief, while claiming that they didn't dare risk losing any of their valuable bullpen arms.



(Of course, when they needed the roster spot for a hitter, they convinced one of those Valuable Bullpen Arms that he wasn't so valuable, so he accepted a demotion rather than try free agency. Then, three weeks later, they decided that the Valuable Bullpen Arm wasn't even worth calling up for September. And then, a week later, they gave the Valuable Bullpen Arm to the Orioles for a minor league player to be named later. So maybe the whole "Valuable Bullpen Arm" thing might have been a stretch.)



When the Twins finally had oodles of roster space, they call up just three guys, and only two of them are perceived as having any kind of future as a set-up reliever. And then the manager refused to use them anyway, because he said he can't trust them with a six run lead. Instead he trusted the guys whose WHIP has spiked like an introductory ARM rate. Of course, he might have been more comfortable if they tried out some of these guys in July or June instead of sitting on their VBAs.



If Smith and Gardenhire are both truly trying to pull this team over the finish line (and it's not totally apparent they both are) they may want to try pulling in the same direction. Otherwise you just get a tug of war, and a lot of effort that results in almost no movement.



Oh, and a rope that looks an awful lot like a flat line.

Spoiled, Obsessed and Fuming

Spoiled, obsessed and fuming is no way to go through life. Or at least not through a baseball season.

Talking about the Eddie Guardado deal to several friends, I remarked how it crystalized just how pathetic the Twins bullpen situation really has been. The Twins picked up Guardado, who is really nothing more than an average reliever at this point in his career, and he's instantly the second best guy on the staff. And maybe the only other guy in which the fans might have some confidence.

If that doesn't clarify exactly how bad the bullpen has been, nothing does, right? We had Nathan and five to seven guys who were - at best - below average. So why the hell did it take so long to address this? What little delusional hole does Twins management find themselves in.

It was a great point - had it not been completely wrong.

On two Sundays this month, I have literally fumed for hours for at the Twins inability to upgrade their bullpen. Some would say that's a sign that I don't have a life, and I readily concede that. But, to be fair, in both cases I was returning from a road trip and precious little else to obsess about.

But the Twins bullpen pitchers aren't bad across the board. BaseballProspectus.com has a slick little statistic it tracks for relievers called Average Run Prevented(ARP). It supposedly measures how many runs a reliever prevents versus your average pitcher. (How it does this is kind of neat, and for you other geeks, I'll cover it at the end of the story). So if you have a positive factor, you're an above average reliever. Negative? You're below average. Going into yesterday's tilt, here's how the members of the Twins bullpen ranked:

Joe Nathan +20.8
Craig Breslow +9.2
Bobby Korecky +5.7
Jesse Crain +5.4
Matt Guerrier +3.0
Dennis Reyes +2.7
Pat Neshek -0.9
Brian Bass -4.3
Boof Bonser -4.5
Juan Rincon -13.0

The existing members of the bullpen, with the exception of Boof, are all above-average relievers this year. And if you're wondering, Guardado's ARP for the year is 8.6, which means he's not quite the second most effective pitcher on the staff, or even the best left-hander. Breslow beats him out.

This doesn't mean that Bill Smith is off the hook. I can still list an even dozen realistic things the Twins could have done to help out their bullpen this year, and none of them were done. In fact, between 5/29 (when the Twins claimed Breslow) and this week - or for almost three months - the only enhancement the Twins made to the bullpen was to subtract members from it.

But it does mean that I'm probably overreacting, which is apt to happen during a pennant race. Perhaps the bullpens in previous years might very well have spoiled us. Or perhaps the bullpen is better this year than I've generally given them credit.

Whatever. I'm still not sure I totally believe it. But it will help me make it through the season.

------------------------------------

Ok, for the fellow geeks, here's how ARP works...

You start with a list of the average number of runs that score in a given situation, based on historical MLB data. For instance, a reliever comes into a game with runners on the corners and one out. The average number of runs that score in that situation is approximately 1.14 runs.

• If he escapes that inning without letting any runs score, he gets 1.14 ARP, because that's the average number of runs he prevented.
• If he escapes that inning letting just one run score, he gets 0.14 ARP, for the same reason.
• If two runs score that inning, he gets -0.86 ARP, because he let in more runs than average.
• Finally, if he gets one out (no runs score) and is then replaced by another pitcher, the average number of runs that score in the new situation (runners on corners, two outs) is approximately .46 runs. So he gets credit for the change of 0.68 ARP (because 1.14-.46=.68).

It's a valuable stat because it gets rid of all the inherited baserunner crap that relievers usually need to deal with. But it's important to note that it's value is that it tells you what has happened, and isn't terribly valuable as a predictive stat.

Go. Go. Gone?

Today's picture was supposed to be one of the kids overlooking the badlands along with a story about how the Twins are facing their own little formidable trek.

While everyone is focusing on the length of the trip and the road woes this year, I think it's worth researching just how the Twins have done on West Coast swings during the Gardenhire era.

Maybe my mind is playing tricks on me, but hasn't this team consistently had one west cost trip each year that is a complete freaking disaster? I'm trying to throw these entries together on my iPhone, so I'm a little too lazy to do the research, but it seems like every year they finish one of these trips in complete implosion mode.

For instance, the whole Hawkins & Eddie whinefest lead to one such trip I think. Last year's August swoon started on a West Coast trip. I seem to remember a 3-7 trip in early 2006, too. Those might not be something we fans remember, but the players and coaches likely do.

Anyway, that's what I was going to write about.

Instead, we got to our hotel, which had this indoor waterpark you see pictured above. You see that twisting enclosed yellow water tube that's at least five stories high? Odds are that The Boy(TM) is somewhere in there right now. And I know this because he's been going up and down it like a turbo charged machine with a touch of OCD.

But here's the thing: if you ask him, he will tell you that he's afraid of heights. And enclosed spaces. And the water. And speed. Am I missing anything? Oh yeah, the dark. That about covers it.

But he LOVES water slides, provided he tries it just once. And today his sister got him to try it and a switch flicked on. He is shivering and blue because he's been doing that slide and five story climb as fast as he can for two hours now. He's our little go-go kid. You can't help but love him.

The Twins love their go-go kid too, but they are still waiting for the switch to flick on. Carlos Gomez sat on the bench Sunday and Monday and I wonder what might have happened later on this week if Delmon Young hadn't hurt his ankle.

Gomez probably would not have been the choice to send to go to AAA when Casilla was activated, because the only backup CFers the Twins would have had were not true CFers like Young or Nick Punto.

But with Kubel hitting lefties and Ruiz available to DH, the Twins best lineup just doesn't include Gomez. What's more, it appears that Ron Gardenhire has decided that these 0-14 skids the kid has occasionally aren't exactly helping his confidence.

Sometime within the next few days when the Twins confirm that Casilla and Young are healthy, they are going to want to callup a reliever from AAA, and it's going to be interesting to see who they pick to send down. The default pick has been Ruiz, but he seem safe. Given the health history of Punto and Casilla, it would be hard to release Everett. If they haven't released Lamb yet, they're unlikely to to lose their LHed bench bat just before Sept.

Sending down Gomez would be a tad harsh, but for whatever the reason, after five months in the bigs, the switch hadn't flicked 'ON'. They clearly love him - how can you not? - but necessity might require a week-long demotion until rosters expand.

Welcome to the Land of Giants

Has anyone else noticed that the Twins are 18 games over .500? And that the Sox are 20 games over .500? That means that even if both teams play only .500 ball over the rest of the year, they'll win 90 and 91 games respectively.

So what's the new over/under on how many wins the AL Central champ or wild card winner will have? 93? 94?

Which means that if the Tigers weren't dead in the water already, they are now. To win 93 games, Detroit would need to finish the season with a 31-4 record. BTW, that team is currently 3 games below .500.

And the Yankees? Well, I won't count them out yet, but it's definitely uphill. To get to 93 wins, they'll need to go on a 27-10 roll. Even if two of the Rays, Red Sox, White Sox and Twins collapse to only 88 wins, they need to finish 23-14. If the fat lady isn't singing, she sure as hell is listening for her cue.

Seriously - low 90s for the Twins or Sox? Who woulda guessed that? Maybe someone who realized that the midwest is the land of giants. Which brings us to today's iPhone photo from the Twins Geek Family's Summer Expetition. Enjoy!

(Or enjoy as much as you can given there is a 60 ft. tall vegan watching your every move.)

On Mariners and Rotting Fish

As the Mariners roll into town today, we're reminded that sometimes the cliche about a fish stinking from the head down is accurate. And it's increasingly looking like the Twins biggest mistake at the trade deadline was targeting players on the Mariners as trade targets.

The Mariners management team is a mess. They fired their GM in July and fired their coach three days later. They replaced them both but haven't removed the interim tags from either. And as the trade deadline approached, and with a roster full of flotsam, they traded a grand total of one player - left-handed reliever Arthur Rhodes.

Among the bevy of teams they didn't trade with are the Twins. Prior to the deadline we heard that the Twins had talked to the Mariners about Adrian Beltre. Then, yesterday, Joe Christensen reported that the Twins claimed both Raul Ibanez and Jarrod Washburn, but weren't able to make a deal with the Mariners for either one.

You can think of Ibanez as being similar to Michael Cuddyer, except that he's a free agent at the end of the year. Which, for the rebuilding Mariners, means he's worth the compensatory draft picks they're likely to receive when he walks. That, at least, has some value.

But Washburn is another story. Washburn is under contract for next year, and he'll be paid $10.35 million. This for a guy with a 5-12 record and a 4.58 ERA in one of the pitching-friendliest ballparks in the majors. The Mariners should not only be willing to trade him for a warm bucket of spit, they should pay several million dollars to make it happen. If they were truly lucky enough to get the Twins to claim him on waivers, it's inconceivable that they didn't stick the Twins with that loadstone of a contract.

But even more stunning? Christensen's note that the Mariners asked for one of the Twins young starters in return for Washburn.

"In Washburn’s case, it sounds like the Twins did indeed win the claim and had
extensive talks with the Mariners. The Twins were willing to take on Washburn’s
contract, and Seattle could have dumped it on them. But the Mariners also wanted
the Twins to throw in one of their current starters. "

Seriously? So the Mariners management team wanted, in return for Washburn, a better starting pitcher who ALSO is $10 million cheaper next year? I should try that. How about I swap cars with Carl Pohlad AND he write me a $10 million check to do so. Savvy offer, that.

I can only imagine Bill Smith's reaction. I suspect it started with him staring at the cell phone speaker quizically. Followed by stammering "That's a, um, creative deal. But I think we'll pass."

(long pause)

"Is there anyone else there I can talk to?"

Real and Fabulous

“By the way, they’re real. And they’re FABULOUS.”
- from Seinfeld

Even for Twins fans, it’s been hard to accept. We find our team exceeding preseason expectations and solidly thumping the division favorites. And then we look at the standings and see the White Sox are in first place? Surely they (and not us) are an anomaly, right? After all, isn’t this the completely dysfunctional club that imploded last year for just 72 wins? We shouldn’t need to worry about them for another 90 years or so, right? And Bonnes wouldn't dream of adding a fifth straight question to this paragraph, would he?

Well, the bad news is that they’re real. If the four game sweep last month (where the Twins were outscored 40-15) didn’t convince you, maybe this will: they’ve outscored their opponents by 88 runs. That’s the third best mark in the majors, ahead of the Angels, the Devil Rays, the Yankees and even our Twins (+23).

So what changed from last year? It’s been a mixture, but the short answer is that General Manager Kenny Williams brought in some young talent that has absolutely exploded.

And that’s the REALLY bad news. Because they’re likely going to be real for several years to come.

The most interesting of that talent is on the pitching side, because Williams didn’t bring them in this year. Both John Danks and Gavin Floyd were acquired from other organizations before last season, and both spent last season struggling. And now both of them have ERAs under 3.50 and are the core of the White Sox starting rotation.

On the offensive side, the White Sox traded for an outfielder from the Diamondbacks who had batted just .214 last year. They picked up Carlos Quentin despite being damaged goods; he underwent shoulder surgery in October. Interestingly, a week before that trade the Pioneer Press reported that Quentin’s right-handed bat had been mentioned in trade talks with the Twins for Matt Garza. We might well have ended up with him instead of Delmon Young. Since getting his shoulder repaired, the 25-year-old is hitting .279 and slugging .550 with 27 home runs and 78 RBI. Imagine THAT hitting behind Justin Morneau.

An even stranger pickup happened in January, when the White Sox handed Alexei Ramirez a four-year, $4.75 million contract after he defected from Cuba. (Is this a great country, or what?) Ramirez struggled early, hitting just .114 at the beginning of May. Just how hot has he been since? Hot enough to raise that batting average all the way to .315 in less than 3 months. He’s also just 26 years old, and the Sox aren’t going to need to go to arbitration with him until 2012. His only flaw might be his glove at second base.

These guys have joined some of the White Sox we know and love (to hate) who are also having huge years. The White Sox spent most of last season debating whether they should trade or sign Mark Buehrle. They chose to sign him, and he’s on pace for his eighth straight season of throwing 200+ innings. Many Sox fans felt like Jermaine Dye was robbed of the MVP award two years ago by Morneau, and they’ll likely get a chance to kvetch again given his .314 batting average, 24 HR and 64 RBI. AJ Pierzynski is hitting .288 with a little power and plenty of attitude. And Jim Thome, after struggling earlier in the year, has hit 19 home runs, driven in 59 RBI, and is getting on base at a .383 clip.

Finally, the White Sox bullpen has been formidable this year, too. Their collective ERA is just 3.15, which is good for fourth in the major leagues. But lately there have been some concerns. Closer Bobby Jenks has just returned from about a month off with a sore back, and has been effective, but not dominant. Set-up man Scott Linebrink is out with a shoulder injury, and Matt Thornton was unavailable for times last week because of a sore back. In their absence the Sox relied on Octavio Dotel whose wildness can be deadly to both teams on the field. We’ll probably also see DJ Carrasco, a 31-year-old who has been effective this year at both AAA and the majors. Still, if there’s one advantage to facing the White Sox right now, it’s that the Twins might get to test the Sox’ bullpen depth.

Twins Takes
That four game sweep the Twins suffered at the hands of the White Sox is a lasting memory, and you can be forgiven if you think that the White Sox have manhandled the Twins all season. But prior to that series, do you know what the Twins record was versus the White Sox this year?

It was 4 wins and 3 losses.

BTW, if any of you are going to the Twins game on Wednesday, be sure to get there early and watch the pregame festivities. I'll be throwing out the first pitch.

Shopping List: Right-handed Third Basemen

Just ten more rumor-mongering days until the trade deadline. If the Twins truly scribbled a right-handed third baseman at the top of Santa's list, it's nice to know he has some options beyond the overpriced Adrian Beltre. Let's see what we come up with and rank them in terms of likeliness. But first, the rules:

1. The player needs to be a third baseman.
2. The player needs to bat right-handed.
3. The player needs to be on a struggling team.

#4 Garret Atkins - Colorado Rockies
At first glance, he looks like the cream of the crop, and perhaps a better acquisition than Adrian Beltre. He's 28, he's hitting .305 with 14 home runs, and he won't be a free agent until after the new ballpark opens. But there are two issues.

First, it isn't clear the Rockies want to trade him. There were plenty of rumors about him being available (mostly to the Indians) early in the season. But that seems to have changed because he's having a great year and his supposed replacement, Ian Stewart, is only hitting .238 while the Rockies try him out at second base. (Oh, and forget about Stewart. He bats left-handed). Plus, the Rockies, despite being dismal, are only six games back in the even more dismal NL West.

And the second issue is that Atkins hasn't been the same player away from Coors (Is it still called that? I don't care. I'm going with it.) Field. Over the last three years he's posted a 948 OPS in Coors and a 792 OPS at other ballparks. This year those differences are even more pronounced. So to acquire Atkins, the Twins would need to dig deep, and there are enough doubts about him that I can't picture them doing that.

#3 Kevin Kouzmanoff - San Diego Padres
Kouzmanoff appears to be the kind of guy that is only rarely available. He's cheap (won't be eligible for arbitration until 2010), he can hit(.276 with 12 home runs), and most importantly for the Twins, he brings back the tradition of having a long name with a "z" on the lineup card every day. He's only available because the Padres have another young stud prospect third baseman named Chase Headley that Kouzmanoff is blocking.

Also, the teams match up fairly well. Just yesterday Ken Rosenthal reported that the Padres would conceivably trade him for a young outfielder. And if Cuddyer gets healthy you could argue that the Twins have one too many of those. You could also argue that the Padres could use some young pitching with both Greg Maddux and Randy Wolfe on the roster.

The concerns? Well, just what is Kevin Kouzmanoff? He's 26, so he's not young. He's brutalized left-handed pitchers so far, slugging over .500 for his career. But he hasn't hit or even got on-base enough versus right-handers (just a .309 career OBP), and he now has over 640 at-bats against them. That doesn't seem like a guy you turn over third base to full-time, let alone trade Carlos Gomez or Denard Span for. And if you're going to acquire a guy to platoon at third base with Buscher, why not go with the devil you know....

#2 Matt Macri - Rochester Red Wings
A funny thing happens when you pull up the stats of all MLB third basemen and sort in descending order by OPS. Matt Macri ends up 5th on that list. Macri fits our criteria and he's in the organization, and he's 26 years old, and he hit .409 with a 1000 OPS vs. left-handers over 22 at-bats during his June call-up.

Strangely, that dominance versus southpaws has been completely absent at Rochester this year. There, he's hitting just .219, and has a much better average against right-handed batters. Both numbers seem like anomolies, but I can't tell you what the actual figure is likely to be.

If a trade is not made, it will be interesting to see if Ron Gardenhire would rather have Lamb as a left-handed pinch-hitter or Macri as a right-handed platoon at third base. I suspect he would pick Macri, mostly because he hates benching a veteran like Lamb, and would just as soon release him. But I'm not sure that would be the right call.

#1 Casey Blake - Cleveland Indians
We always talk about how interdivisional trades are rare, but this might be the kind that could make sense. The Indians aren't going anywhere, and Blake will be a free agent at the end of the year. If anyone would balk at a trade, it would likely be the Twins, for fear that the player they lost to the Indians would come back to bite them several times every year. You know, kind of like Casey Blake has.

Of the players on this list, Blake is the most seamless fit. He doesn't need to be much more than a platoon player, so the Twins can continue to use Buscher. He also has some positional flexibility, even playing shortstop once this year. And he's socking lefties silly. He's hitting .323 against them this year, and slugging over .500, and while the batting average doesn't match his track record, the slugging does. Over the last three years he's slugged .509 versus left-handers in 411 at-bats.

Odds are, someone is going to end up with Blake on the trade deadline. Considering how good a fit he is, I'll be a little suprised if that team ends up not being the Twins.

Distractable

I'm personally of the opinion that rumors about the Twins being interested in Adrian Beltre are a red herring, meant to distract us and the league while they search for a dominant eighth inning arm. But (and The Voice of Reason will certainly back me up on this) I am absolutely emminently distractable. I am the definition of Short Attention Span Theater.

Which, by the way, nobody mentions, but was fantsatic. Is also launched Jon Stewart's career, and rightly so, because that is not the kind of show that just anyone can pull off. And why does MTV get blasted for no longer having videos, but Comedy Central gets off scott-free for no longer having anything liks SAST?

See what I mean? Absolutely, emminently, distractable.

Adrian Beltre
So let's start with the rumur du jour, er, week. I gotta say, assuming there is at least a little truth to it, this rumor should be encouraging as hell to Twins fans. This sort of rumor was in short supply the last couple years, and it's further evidence that Bill Smith isn't afraid to spend some money and take some risks. Terry Ryan got a bum rap in that regard for the most part, but Smith has made some bold and creative moves. Plus, it's comforting to see that the extra money that the team didn't spend on free agents might be available for a mid-season pickup, and isn't sunk into paying overruns at the new ballpark.

Beltre hasn't been the superstar the Mariners expected when they threw $64 million at him in 2005. That probably shouldn't be a surprise, because prior to 2004, Beltre was the poster boy for the young, incredibly talented but dissappointing athelete. Then came 2004, Beltre's contract year, in which he suddenly showed some plate discipline and slugged .629 (blink. blink.), earning him a second place finish in the National League MVP voting. He hasn't shown that discipline since. Nor has he slugged over .500.

You might think that the Mariners would be looking to jettison a contract like that, just like they did with Richie Sexson. But salaries have rocketed upwards since 2004, so that $12 million a year he makes per year is easier to justify, especially with third base being a thin position. Add in his defense (he won a gold glove last year), his age (he's only 29 years old), and the fact that 2009 would also be a contract year like 2004 was, and he starts to make more sense.

The Package
Of course, the $12 million question is what you give up for him. La Velle E Neal suggested that the price might be similar to what the Athletics recently received for Joe Blanton, which he interprets as being equivalent to one of the Twins young starters and some other prospects.

I'm not sure how he draws that comparison. Two of the players are prospects only in a nominal sense. Josh Outman is a Double-A pitcher who has already been switched to the bullpen. And Matt Spencer is an outfielder in High A ball whose career trajectory is aimed towards being a decent left-handed fourth outfielder for someone's bench.

And the "prize" player the Athletics received? Second baseman Adrian Cardnenas is certainly a prospect, but he is only in High-A ball. Last year he ranked #76 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list with a note that his ETA to the majors was 2010. For comparison purposes, Deolis Guerrara, the 18-year-old pitcher the Twins received as the fourth player in the Johan Santana trade, was listed as #35 on the same list with the same ETA.

I'm pretty sure that if Bill Smith can have Beltre for Guerrera and a couple of the Twins nominal prospects, that deal would already be done.

Brian Buscher
You can bet that the package the Twins offered Seattle included Brian Buscher, because there is no longer room on this team for Buscher if the trade is made. Beltre isn't a platoon player, and his contract goes through 2010, by which time Buscher is almost 29 years old, which is, well, even older than Brian Buscher is now, which is saying something.

The Mariners probably don't have much interest in Buscher. Buscher might be attractive to some teams, but the Mariners seem to be pushing Matt Tuiasosopo fairly quickly. He's just 22 years old and has graduated to AAA this year, and his .256 batting average disguises that he does some good things in terms of getting on base and having a little power.

One the one hand, that looks to me like someone they might like to season a bit before throwing onto the major league grill. They could afford that luxury with soemone like Buscher on the roster, especially because Buscher is left-handed and could allow Tuiasosopo some platoon time at the beginning of his major league career. Of course, the same could be said for holding onto Beltre for another year. Or for signing a low-end free agent to provide an insurance policy at third base for 2009. Now that Bill Bavasi is gone, I suspect they have thought of those options.

So the Twins ideal package probably isn't something the Mariners are interested in. But I'd be shocked if the Twins didn't have a combination of minor leaguers that could entice the Mariners to save themselves the $16 million that Beltre is owed for the remainder of his contract. How far the Twins are willing to go is likely dependent on their other options, and there are some, and a few might even be a better fit than Beltre.

Which, strangely enough, is what this entry was supposed to be about. Instead, it's been about Beltre and the Athletics trade. See what I mean about distractable?

(But that means that we get to research some of the other options later this week. Yeay. See you then.)

Choosing to Believe

We spend a lot of time talking about run differential and PECOTA and small-sample sizes and what not. Instead, today, as we finish our break, let’s try stripping away the expectations and the back stories and see where we’re at:

We’ve played 95 games. That’s longer than a full season for most sports. It includes 300+ at-bats for starting hitters and 100+ innings for solid starting pitchers. And here’s how many wins each of the above winning teams in the American League have right now:

57 - LA Angels
57 - Boston
55 - Tampa Bay
54 - Chicago Sox
53 - Minnesota
51 - Oakland
50 - NY Yankees
50 - Texas

Now, can you tell me with any level of assurance which four of those teams are going to come out on top over the next 67 games? Of course you can’t. Nobody can. These teams are too close. We’re talking a seven game difference between eight teams, with 67 or so games left to play. For that level of precision, our statistical tools start to work against us.

Want to discount small sample size? Too late. We have less than 70 games left this season, and so small-sample size is a legitimate issue – and with every game played it’s increasingly likely to mess things up.

Wanna talk about run differential? Its predictive power is also reduced with each game that is played. And its predictive power is taking a shot this year anyhow. The top team on that list should be seventh according to run differential.

Trust player-projection systems like PECOTA? They're fun, but now they are missing more than a half-year of data. And it’s the half year that is most indicative of a player's future performance.

Maybe it’s time to set aside the offseason analysis and take a fresh look at this race, including a fresh look at the Twins chances. Forget the players that left, the veterans that didn’t pan out, the money not spent, and the missing power. Instead, focus on the improvement, the youth, the speed and the potential. Or if you don’t want to embrace those things, how about the random chance that the Twins make up just two games over the next 67? On either of the teams in front of them?

As for me, I’m choosing to believe. I don’t fully understand what has happened to Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins. I don’t understand how a team can score this many runs without hitting for more power. And I don’t understand how a starting pitching staff can be this good without striking more people out. I fully admit it. I don’t get it.

And I don’t care.

The fault is in my understanding, not in the rest of the world’s execution. And I couldn’t be happier to be wrong. Bring on the pennant race.

Twins Takes

Liriano
In case you missed it (and let's face it, NOBODY who comes to this blog missed it) Francisco Liriano's agent, Greg Genske, is asking the player's union to investigate if the Twins kept Liriano in AAA just to limit his service time. I speculated in the past that Liriano's agent impacted the decision to have Liriano pitch (and get shelled) three times this April, largely because he was worried about service time....

And if you think that little ticking clock wasn't at the top of his and his agent's mind, you're kidding yourself. You can be damn sure there would be plenty of resentment if he "wasn't being given a chance" as Bill Smith so aptly put it.

Three starts later, things were much clearer for the team, the agent, and probably the player.

Looks like I was right and I was wrong. There's little doubt that early season call-up was impacted by the agent. But it looks like giving up 13 walks and 13 runs in 10 innings didn't fully convince Genske that maybe he wasn't the best judge of when Liriano was major-league ready. I wonder how many more walks and runs it would have taken?

By the way, if you really want to dive into whether Liriano's return to the majors has been delayed by the financial incentive of keeping him at Rochester, it has been debated (mostly) intelligently for months over at a discussion board called rotojunkie.com. The first four pages follow Liriano's return to the majors, but on this page (back in May) the debate starts about the motives for keeping him in Rochester. I sounded off several times in the thread. I used to think that "Jericho" was just a bitter know-it-all and Liriano roto-owner. Now I wonder if he isn't Genske.

Billy Beane - Boy Genius!
For the second time this month, the A's trade away one of their front-line starting pitchers for spare parts/minor leaguers. This, despite being three games out of a playoff spot and having a run differential that is third best in the AL. I suppose it's possible Beane isn't working covertly for the Anaheim Angels, but I'm not sure what else he could do if he was.

In general, I like and admire Beane, but how can he not be absolutely savaged for these trades? I spoke above about how it might be time to let go of back stories and expectations and try and evaluate things without swimming within those antiquated points-of-view. Is it time to do the same with Bean? Imagine if someone like Bill Bavasi or Jim Bowden did this. It's possible that the baseball blogosphere would spontaneously combust like a potted plant.

Opportunistic Week
The Rangers coming to town doesn't exactly fire the imagination, but compare that list of contenders above to the Twins schedule this next week. The Rangers and the Yankees are two of the teams that the Twins will be competing against for a playoff spot, and the Twins don't have a winning record against either of them. Winnning the series against both would be nice, but the Twins have a chance to absolutely bury either of them with a sweep.

Finding a Trump Card

The card player has ground it out. He's survived, he's played well, and now he smiles to himself. It's the trump card. He has it, and the game changes. This won't be one he grinds out, hoping to survive. This is one he needs to take. He needs to shoot higher.


The Twins missing trump card has become obvious in the last two weeks as three games slipped away. Twice versus Boston and once versus Detroit a game was lost because there wasn't a dominant presence to step on the eighth inning's neck. But it turns out that guy hasn't just been important this year. For the Twins, that second best bullpen guy has mattered a lot, usually being the one of (or even the) most important pitcher on the staff. This year, he's the missing trump card.


That might be hard to believe. We traditionally measure a player's effectiveness using cumulative and full-season statistics, and in that context the best middle reliever doesn't usually shine. After all, they usually only pitch half the innings of even the fourth best starter. Certainly, the market hasn't recognized them as being particularly valuable, with the exception of whoever the Yankees had targeted to serve as a bridge to Mariano Rivera.


But we use those full-season statistics for a reason. We don't know the situation a ballplayer faced when he walked to the plate. It could be when the team was down by five runs with the bases empty, or it could be when the bases were loaded late in a one-run game. We assume that those situations "even out" so we can judge the batter by his overall stats.


But that randomness doesn't apply to the best non-closer in the bullpen. He's only rarely used in games that have been decided. The majority of his appearances happen in close games - and late in close games. His impact on any game in is signficant. And you can see just how significant using the Win Probability Added (WPA) stat.


I could spend the rest of this entry writing a definition of WPA, so let's start with this one from Wikipedia:


Win Probability Added is a technical baseball statistic which attempts to measure a player's win contribution by figuring how much each specific play he made altered the outcome of a game.


There's an elegant beauty about how it's figured with precision, but I don't want to go into all of that. Suffice to say that it gives extra credit for performing in crucial situations, almost no credit for performing in non-crucial situation, and absolutely no credit for fielding, which is probably it's biggest weakness. And it has other limitations, such as difficulty in predicting a player's future impact, since it doesn't know what kind of situations a player will face.


But it is really, really good for evaluating how big an impact a player had on a game or a season. And for the Twins run this decade, it shows just how effective the best non-closer in the bullpen has been. Below is a list of who that player has been each year, and how they ranked against the entire rest of the team (not just pitchers) in WPA:


2002 - JC Romero - Best WPA on the team
2003 - Latroy Hawkins - Best WPA on the team
2004 - Juan Rincon - 6th best WPA on the team
2005 - Jesse Crain - 2nd best WPA on the team
2006 - Juan Rincon - 6th best WPA on the team
2007 - Pat Neshek - 2nd best WPA on the team
2008 - Matt Guerrier - 6th best WPA on the team


The ability to use a certain player at a certain point is a key weapon for a baseball team, allowing a manager to leverage his best performing players in the most critical situations. A dominant bullpen arm, be it a closer or otherwise, essentially gives the manager a trump card to use wherever and whenever it most suits him.


Gardenhire is doing a decent job of playing the cards he has been dealt, given the injury to Neshek and the decline of Rincon. But as Bill Smith schmoozes this week at the All-Star Game, he needs to understand that the Twins are at least one card short of a winning hand. And it his his responsibility to get that trump card.

Twins Takes

Got an email from a friend this weekend after Saturday's game...

What's Gardenhire's effing problem? Tying run on second, two outs in the eighth, removing Reyes because a righty is now at the plate, and he goes to Bass because it's not yet the ninth so Nathan is off limits? Lame. Bass got out of the inning fine, but these are the kinds of small decisions that do cost teams ballgames.

I can't argue with this. In general, I think the rending of garments about how the Twins use Joe Nathan is misguided, but my friend is right. Nathan had worked both nights before, but he had also thrown just nine pitches in Friday's game. If he isn't used in that situation, exactly when will he be extended? And it further demonstrates the necessity of getting that second dominant bullpen arm.

Biblical Proportions

Hi gang. I'm kind of bushed tonight, so I'm running what I wrote on Thursday for the Dugout Splinters insert in GameDay titled "Biblical Proportions". While I'm at it, I'll throw in some postscript notes in blue. Hope you like it. - John

-----------------------------------

Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes....
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

- From Ghostbusters

(I think it's fair to say that I don't quote Ghostbusters nearly enough. It's possible that nobody does.)

Any other year, the collapse of the Indians might be large enough to rate as “biblical”. This year? The perpetually terrible Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in the majors. The NL pennant-winning Rockies are 17 games under .500. Throw in the Padres, Tigers, White Sox and Twins, and the Indians slide might not make the top five.

That doesn’t make it any less astounding. Last October, this team had a 3-1 game lead in the American League Championship series. This year they are in last place in the modest AL Central, 11 (now 14) games under .500, and 12.5 (now also 14) games behind the division leading White Sox - who just swept them.

So what in the name of Hal Trosky is going on?

Well, it’s been a combination of things, really. There’s been some bad luck, preceded by a slow start, and followed by some key injuries. You can start with the bad luck, because this team has actually scored more runs than it has given up. And yet they’re nowhere near having a .500 record. I’d like to tell you the cause, and there are plenty of people who will claim they can. But in reality, it’s a little like watching the roulette ball land on red ten times while you’re betting on black. You can try to explain it, but even if you can explain it you can’t do much about it. Except congratulate the guy who has been betting on red.

(After watching this team, it looks like the biggest reason they've underperformed is their bullpen. That certainly makes sense. But there is a reason that the stats guys say that it's mostly about luck despite pretty clear anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Here's an example:

I once studied several years of baseball teams over the first half of a season and over the second half of a season. I compared how often their record overperformed or underperformed versus their run differential. You might expect that if a team underperformed versus their runs over the first half of a season, like Cleveland has, that they would likely underperform against it the second half of the season, too. Certainly that would make sense if it was primarily due to something like a team's bullpen.

But when you compare them, there is no correlation. A team that overperforms before the all-star break is just as likely to underperform as to overperform again after the all-star break. It truly seems to be dependent on how the ball bounces.)

Cleveland also didn’t get out of the gate very fast this year, sporting a record that was at or below .500 for most of April. That was largely fueled by inconsistent and outright hideous outings from starter and current Cy Young Award holder C.C. Sabathia, who finished April with an ERA of 7.76.

There were plenty of offensive culprits, too. Last year’s spark for their pennant run was rookie second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera. He hit .283, and seemed to come through in every key-at bat. This year, he spent most of April and May extinguishing offensive flames before he was sent to the minors in early July. He’s hitting down there, and will likely return soon since Cleveland second basemen collectively have the second worst offensive mark in the major leagues by OPS (On-base Plus Slugging).

But the most damaging decline to the offense has been inflicted by #3 hitter Travis Hafner. His production declined last season, falling from 42 home runs in 2006 to just 24. Most assumed the 30-year-old (now 31) would bounce back this year. After all, he looked like he was pressing a bit, especially after he signed a contract extension guaranteeing him another $60 million through 2012.

So what is his home run total this year? Try four. Just four home runs. And it isn’t likely to go up soon, because he was placed on the disabled list at the end of May for … well, there things are a little unclear. We know it’s his shoulder, and that he’s always had problems with that shoulder, and that it’s weaker than the other one, and that he’s working on strengthening exercises. But they don’t know when he’s going to come back. And they don’t know exactly how good he’s going to be when he does.

The injuries don’t stop with Hafner. While Sabathia won the Cy Young award last year, it’s arguable that Fausto Carmona, who also had 19 wins and a lower ERA than Sabathia, was the best pitcher on the Indians staff. He was placed on the disabled list at the end of June with a hip strain and won’t be back until after the all-star break. Pitcher Jake Westbrook, who was another ace pitcher early this year, underwent Tommy John surgery in June. And the middle of the lineup was really gutted when catcher and cleanup hitter Victor Martinez also underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow joint. He won’t be back until the end of July at the very earliest.

And, of course, no Dugout Splinters about the Cleveland Indians would be complete without talking about the Tribe’s under-performing bullpen. This is GameDay’s seventh year, and Cleveland visits about three times per year, so this is roughly the 20th time that we’ve talked about the perpetually putrid Indians bullpen. I could plug in the same verbiage I’ve been using since 2002. In fact, let’s try that. It’s a little like Mad Libs™. Play along, won’t you?

This offseason, despite being a priority, the Indians failed to upgrade their bullpen, instead staying with somewhat shaky veteran Bob Wickman Joe Borowski as their closer. He’s blown his last few save opportunities, so this series it’s likely that manager Charlie Manuel Eric Wedge might turn to Mark Wohlers Rafael Betancourt Bobby Howry Fernando Cabrera Masahide Kobayashi in the late innings.

Given all that bad mojo, it isn’t shocking that General Manager Mark Shapiro is hinting that he is preparing to move Sabathia, who will be a free agent at the end of the year, at the trade deadline. That’s in four weeks (and is rumored to be near completion). If they’re swept by the Twins (giggle) like they were by the Sox, last year’s division flag will likely be replaced by a white one.

Comment Thursday

Fourth of July weekend is beginning a little early in the Geek House. Not because I'm taking an extra day off - I'm not. But fortunately, just about everyone else is. So let's dedicate today's comments column to everyone who stretches their long weekend, and in so doing, pushes the rest of us into a holiday state of mind. Let's get to the comments....


A Few Questions I Have This Week

Since comments are a little light this week, let's start by answering the questions I asked on Sunday night, keeping in mind that we're only halfway though the week.


Q: Is Detroit a contender?
A: Nominally. Could they win the division? Yeah. But let's give it the "scary" test. Would you ever find yourself saying "You know what scares me? The Tigers. They're scary."


Well, if they were real tigers, the answer would be "yes". Tigers, rare as they are, are one of the few natural enemies of man. They won't hesitate to hunt us in their natural habitat and they enhance their power and viciousness by being incredibly sneaky. They almost always are able to attack from behind. In fact, people walking through a tiger's territory sometimes wear masks on the back of their heads to try and fool them.


And for this Tigers team I would have said "yes" during this offseason. Ditto through April, even though they looked dreadful. Even last week during their 17-4 run I might have replied affirmatively. But after watching the bulk of this series and three other ones I'm comfortable saying that the only way they're dangerous is when they attack from behind. And while they're not pussycats, I don't feel the need to walk around with a mask on the back of my head either. Unless maybe it's of Joe Nathan. That should keep them at bay.


Q: Can Denard Span help the club this year?
A: Yep, or at least he can if he stays on the team. Dick Bremer made a good point last night about how different the Twins offseason might have been if Span would have shown this year's development last year. Would there have been as much ruckus about Hunter leaving? Would they have courted the same teams during Johan trades if they didn't need a center fielder? Would the Twins have ended up with the Mets' Fernando Martinez instead of Carlos Gomez?


By the way, the 19-year-old Martinez is playing pretty well in AA right now. It's worth noting that he was injured again this year and missed more than a month with a hamstring strain.


Q: Speaking of ever, will Ron Gardenhire ever let Span bat leadoff?
A: Still don't know. Span looks like he would be an infinitely better fit there than Gomez, but so has Casilla for over a month.


And if we really want to talk about switching around the lineup, I know it's not traditional, but what if we sprinkled these guys around in the lineup a little? It seems counter-intuitive to have any of them batting in the middle of the order, but it sure would be nice to see one of these speed bugs show up each inning or so. And, to be honest, I'd rather have both Casilla's and Span's disciplined bats in the middle of the lineup over Delmon Young's right now. At the very least, maybe move one of them to the seventh spot?


As far as I know, I've never seen a simulation which tried something like that. Let's take it a step further. What if we divided a lineup into three types of players - lead-offs, general hitters, and power, and assigned each group three of your players. And then what if you just alternated them with a leadoff batter being followed by a hitter who was followed by a slugger. If the Twins did something like that, I'd probably divide them something like this:


Lead off - Gomez, Casilla, Span
Hitters - Mauer, Harris, Buscher
Power - Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer


And then the lineup would look like this: Casilla, Mauer, Morneau, Span, Buscher, Kubel, Gomez, Harris, Cuddyer.


Gawd, that looks ... awful. What am I writing? Did someone slip something into my ice water? Let's forget this conversation ever took place, OK?


Q: Will Glen Perkins be in this rotation after the all-star break?
This brings us to our first comment of the week....


TT said...
And two of [Perkins] last three [starts] have been [quality starts].


They really need to make room for a guy [Liriano] who has given up 5 runs in each of his last two games at AAA while never getting out of the 6th inning. Perkins has had two starts that bad all year - and they were both almost a month ago. Perkins job is, or should be, at least as safe as Nick Blackburn's.


I guess we can both throw numbers around, but Perkin's ERA in June, even after that nice start this week, is 4.67. That said, he's now had three quality starts in his last four, and this last start was impressive. He might be the best at working inside of all of the starters, especially when he establishes it early. His control is still inconsistent, and that's what worries me. But he seems to be overcoming that after a rough stretch.

Your point about Blackburn is a good one. Blackburn's starts lately have been better than Perkins', but he also had a rough spot and had his turn in the rotation skipped once for "elbow soreness". I think of him as more established because he's been in the rotation longer, and that's usually a valid consideration with this coaching staff. They both still have plenty to prove, but they've both surprised me, and in a good way. I recognize that they're very good.

Which sucks for Liriano. Yes, he's given up some runs lately, but he's also improved his control and is back to striking out a guy per inning. Maybe more importantly to the cynics, calling him up now (or at least soon) is late enough in the season that he won't end the season with enough service time to be a Super 2 arbitration-eligible player. That could save the Twins a couple of million dollars per year over the next four years. What to do with him is a nice problem to have.

Bitter Aftertaste
neckrolls said...
Gardy was ejected in the 3rd inning - Scott Ulger made all the pitching changes (and non-changes).

I need to ask - does anyone really understand why Gardy gets thrown out in these situations? He's not protecting a player. He's not arguing a close call. It seems like he's just throwing a fit about a rule he doesn't like, which would be fine, but I'm not even all that sure about what he doesn't like about the rule.

In this case, it sounds like he was mad that his guy got thrown at twice while their guy was thrown at once. But no real harm was done in any of the three episodes. You can argue that the umpire allowed the teams to state their positions and then, when it looked like one team was going to carry it a little further, he issued the warnings. He probably should have done it after the first close pitch to Mauer, and Gardy has every right, and maybe the responsibility, to point out that out to the umpire. But why get tossed over it? No harm was done. What further point is made by throwing a petulant fit?

And if his issue is the whole "warning" rule, one could argue that it's made to protect teams exactly like the Twins. This team, especially under Gardy's leadership, has absolutely shied away from any kind of beanball retaliation, even when it is clear their hitters are being thrown at. This year that seems to be a little bit different, with a little more feistiness, and it makes me wonder if the previous passive behavior was a result of Radke and/or Santana's leadership.

Again, I think Gardy is a much better manager than he is generally given credit. And in the big picture, this is small potatoes. But this has been an ongoing issue during the Gardenhire regime, and his reaction seems to be wholly ineffective at best, and puzzling, embarrassing and self-destructive at worst. Which brings us to our last comment....

Anonymous said...
It's a great question: does the manager stop managing after being ejected? I've always assumed the answer is no.

In the Twins case, I believe the answer is "yes". And furthermore, I believe Gardy's puzzling, embarrassing and self-destructive fit might well have cost the Twins that first game of the series.

I suspect that Gardy really does leave these kind of on-field decisions to one of his coaches because I keep seeing that delegation philosophy within the organization. You can sense that GM Bill Smith (and Terry Ryan before him) is sometimes legitimately frustrated with some of Gardy's playing time choices, but he will not interfere because he also understands the benefits of having some boundaries, like not having a manager look over his own shoulder. You get the same feeling when the team talks about the draft. You get that feeling when they talk about their minor league coaches. You even get that feeling with Gardenhire and his players. And I'd be shocked if it didn't extend to Gardy's staff. The idea of establishing limits in power to allow direct reports to do their job and face the consequences seems to be fundamental to this organization.

And that raises the question about whether Ullger was doing what he thought he was supposed to do, or what he wanted to do. Or, as I said on Monday night:

"But was Ullger sticking with Guerrier because he thought Guerrier was the designated eighth inning guy? If Gardy would have been making the moves, would it have been done differently, because he's more comfortable second-guessing himself than Ullger is second-guessing his boss?"

I have a high opinion of Gardenhire's feel for the bullpen, and tend to think it would have been played a bit differently, and turned out differently, if he was the one pulling the strings. That's part of why I wrote what I did on Monday night. It's rare that you see him miss an opportunity that gives his bullpen a clear advantage.

OK, that does it for this week. This weekend the Twins get a chance to bury the Indians and then bury the shovel. We'll talk to you on Monday and see if they take advantage of it.

Bitter Aftertaste

"Slow, old, and a little indifferent." That's how I described the Tigers in the second series versus the Twins this year, though I also mentioned how explosive they could be in the first series. Then, last month, we saw both in the same series as the Tigers sandwiched an explosive 19-3 victory with two anemic outings. Last night we saw both in the same game.

The Tigers entered the game with Magglio Ordonez on the disabled list. By the third inning, they had sought medical attention for two more of the veterans as the Tigers spent some time looking at catcher Ivan Rodriguez's knee and pulled Miguel Cabrera from the game with a hip flexor. They also had committed three fielding errors.

Their quite march to a meek loss was changed in the seventh inning. I suspect manager Ron Gardenhire will take a fair amount of abuse from at least two group of fans about pulling Perkins after 6.1 innings. First, Fans who think Ruining Arms is Good(FRAG) will wonder why Perkins wasn't allowed to get himself out of the inning when he had only thrown 91 pitches. After all, that's how Bert did it. Second, the Wins Are Statistical Tomfoolery group(WAST) will probably wonder if Gardy didn't take Perkins out so he could make sure his young pitcher had no chance to get a loss after that outing.

Both may be right, but there was nothing wrong with that move. Two right-handed batters were coming up, and both of them have hit significantly worse against right-handed pitchers this year. But for those who want to question a bullpen move, Gardy gave us a nice morsel to pick apart an inning later. Or rather a bullpen non-move.

The Twins were clinging to a 4-3 lead, the tying run was on second base and there was one out. Right-handed Matt Guerrier was pitching for the Twins, and so the Tigers announced that left-handed Matt Joyce would be a pinch hitter. Joyce not only hits right-handed pitchers better than left-handed pitchers, he almost only hits against right-handed pitchers. This year he has only two at-bats, and no hits, against southpaws. What's more, he was being followed by Curtis Granderson, another left-handed hitter who is hitting significantly worse against the southpaws.

Fortunately, the Twins had a southpaw sitting in the bullpen. Unfortunately, the active verb was "sitting". It was Craig Breslow, who sports a 1.47 ERA and 17 K in 18 innings. He's not only been lights out since joining the Twins, he's been lights out against left-handers, and even better against right-handers, if you can believe it. But he wasn't warmed up. He wasn't even off the bench. Apparently Gardenhire, for whatever reason, had decided it was Guerrier's game to win or lose.

It turned out to be the latter. Joyce hit a triple down the right field line and then Granderson singled to center field to drive in the winning run. Guerrier retired the next two batters (both right-handed) to get out of the inning. And Breslow did finally enter the game, but it was in the ninth inning. He retired the two batters he faced.

Those are the facts, and I'll follow it with the caveats. First, I've spent more than a little time praising Ron Gardenhire for developing, building and effectively using his bullpen, and it's deserved. Second, god knows that this isn't the first time this year that the Tigers have shown that they can beat up the Twins bullpen. Of their four wins this year against the Twins, this is the third time they've won it because they slap our bullpen like I slap mustard on a corn dog. (And I REALLY like mustard.) Finally, Bert and Dick mentioned that Breslow had back issues earlier that might have carried into this game. That might have played a part even though he did pitch later in the game.

But I sure hope that someone asked Gardenhire about this in the postgame press conference. Something like "I'm sure you debated bringing the left-hander Breslow in during the eighth inning. What factors made you keep him on the bench versus Joyce and Granderson?" Now, maybe Gardenhire can talk about those reasons ("I have lots of faith in Guerrier") and maybe he can't ("I don't trust Breslow in a high-leverage situation yet"). But the game likely hinged on that decision. It deserves to be answerd, and it really deserves to be asked.

I suspect the manager will do both about 20 times tonight. We'll pick at it, but Gardy will likely gnaw on it in between shots of cherry extract. I wonder which will be more bitter.


(Post Note: OK, I'm a dumbass. I was listening when Gardy was thrown out. I was watching when Ullger pulled Perkins. And as I was writing this, I must've seen the "highlights" of Gardenhire being thrown from the game at least three times. And yet, at no time, did I think "So this was Ullger making those decisions".

It raises another question which we likely won't really get answered publicly. Just how much influence does a thrown out manager have in a game like that? We know he shouldn't have any, so that will be the public answer. But was Ullger sticking with Guerrier because he thought Guerrier was the designated eighth inning guy? If Gardy would have been making the moves, would it have been done differently, because he's more comfortable second-guessing himself than Ullger is second-guessing his boss?

It adds a whole new level of helplessness to this depressing loss knowing that it may have resulted from Gardy's Holy Crusade Against Warnings. That sounds like a topic for a comment Friday.

Anyway, my bad. I'll gnaw on this the way I said Gardy would be gnawing last night on that loss. And I suspect the bitter aftertaste is similar. Only I'll wash it down with some Diet Pepsi Max.)

A Few Questions I Have This Week

Confused about your team? Me too, or at least a little. I was the optimistic one, but even I expected them to struggle in the first half of the season. But even at eight games over .500, there are still a bunch of question that have yet to be answered. For some fans, that's disconcerting. For me, it's like a cold beer on a summer patio - ignoring it wouldn't just be stupid, it would be sinful.

And there are some that I'm looking at especially close this week. Starting with:

Q: Is Detroit a contender?

I know, I know, it's supposed to be Twins questions, right? Well, I'm cheating a little, but not in the way you think. This is a question about the Twins, because the Twins will be facing the Tigers seven more times in the next two (that's the cheat) weeks. In fact, they'll only have one more series against them after the all-star break, and it will be at home in September. If the Twins smack down the Tigers by taking five of the seven games, the Tigers are going to have a fairly tough time making up the ground.

That's not unreasonable, because so far this season, the Twins are 5-3 versus the Tigers, but what's been striking is how one team has clearly dominated the other in almost each game. Early in the season the Twins bullpen blew two opportunities and let the Tigers regain a little swagger from their horrid start. In a three game series at the Metrodome the Tigers looked slow, old and a little indifferent. And in the last series in Detroit the Twins sandwiched two steady but solid victories around a 19-3 shellacking.

All year the Tigers have looked like a talented, but inconsistent, team. They can explode one night and implode (or maybe more disconcerting, fail to ignite) the next two nights. But they have won seventeen of their last twenty-one games making them one of the few teams that can claim to be hotter than the Twins right now. This week (and next weekend) we'll get to see firsthand if the team has changed, or if they've just been exploding a little more often.

Q: Can Denard Span help the club this year?

Be careful what you ask for - you just might get it. Last week I tried to find room for Span on the Twins roster, and today he'll find his way into the lineup at the expense of Michael Cuddyer, who will make his second appearance on the disabled list with a finger problem.

Span certainly profiles as someone who can eventually be a benefit to this team. In particular, since last last year he looks like someone who has gained an awareness that there is this imaginary box around home plate called "the strike zone", and that he isn't required to swing at pitches that are not in that imaginary box.

That mystical realization has led to an on-base percentage of .431 in Rochester. It's also correlated with a 60 point leap in batting average. But maybe most amazing is that it has led to a substantial spike in power, as he's sporting a .471 slugging percentage in AAA right now. That's over 100 points higher than he's ever had in a minor league season.

Q: Speaking of ever, will Ron Gardenhire ever let Span bat leadoff?

OK, "ever" is a strong word. After all, Gardy did allow Span to bat leadoff when he was here last time. Once. In twelve games. When Gomez didn't play. So Span may get a turn sometime when Gomez doesn't play. But will he ever get to bat leadoff and move Gomez to ninth in the order?

The initial answer will almost surely be "no", and Gardy will explain it thusly:
1. He doesn't want to put too much pressure on Span.
2. He wants Gomez to see as many pitches as he can.
3. He enjoys the challenge of fighting off that pulmonary embolism as he watches Gomez chase that eighth consecutive low-and-away slider.

Alright, I made that last one up. He would never say that. He probably wouldn't even say "That which does not kill me, makes me stronger." But he must be thinking it, because I know that Gomez has struck out on that pitch in 3/4 of his at-bats. So I guess #2 is taking care of itself - he's certainly getting to see plenty of that pitch. But I suspect he will in the #9 spot, too.

Q: Will Glen Perkins be in this rotation after the all-star break?

His manager barely disguised his disappointment after his last start. Four of his last six starts haven't been quality starts. He gets two starts this week. And finally, his start tonight is against the Tigers, against whom he had his most impressive performance of the season.

Why is that significant? Becuase they'll be gunning for him. He won't sneak up on them like he did after that 19-3 game. With Francisco Liriano toiling and waiting in AAA, this week could go a long way towards indicating if Perkins spends the end of July in Minneapolis or Rochester.

Comment Friday

Huzzah! A summer friday night in Minnesota. I'd like to dedicate today's comments column to the drunk Brewers fan who will accidentally pay me $11 for a $2 GameDay Program and Scorecard tonight because his eyes can't focus. Sir, enjoy that extra three second pause between any crucial stimulus and your response. It's like a little vacation!

And now, on to the comments....

Busch-whacked

Tricia said...
Love the 16 Candles reference. That's one of my favorite movies ever. I am also really starting to like Brian Buscher, small sample size or not.

You like Sixteen Candles references? All right. I knew you'd come around. This blog...this blog is happenin' I'm blowing your mind aren't I? I'm just getting warmed up. Grooowwwwllllll.....

John said...
It's worth noting that Buscher's pro career started at a relatively advanced age; he was already 22 when drafted. Not to say Buscher is his equal, but Corey Koskie's first full season was at age 27. Casey Blake didn't get his first real shot until age 29.

Very nice. I thought about comparing Buscher to Koskie but was under the impression that Koskie started his MLB career much earlier. They aren't dissimilar player in that they are both left-handed, fairly patient hitters. Let's call Buscher a poor man's Koskie, shall we? Because we haven't used that cliche yet.

(BTW, I just looked up Koskie's minor league stats. He had a similar jump in power, but it happened earlier, and he never really had Buscher's plate discipline in the minors.)

And bringing up Blake is partially brilliant and partially just cruel. But it makes me wonder if there's something about third base that allows players to start in the majors a bit later than other positions.

neckrolls said...
I think we sometimes put too much stock in a minor-league track record. A lot of baseball is mental, and it can take some people a while for the light to come on. Nick Blackburn is another one who was middling for awhile, but appeared to figure something out last year. Hopefully, the same sort of thing is also happening for Denard Span, and he'll turn out to be a productive player after all.

Well, I do put a lot of stock in a minor-league track record, but I would argue that Buscher's minor league record does demonstrate growth and some maintainable skills for the majors.

On Waiting and Outrage

Anonymous said...
John, I think it is just a matter of time before Span is brought up again. He will undoubtedly be the first to be called up if an OF lands on the DL. I will also not be surprised if the Twins were to send Gomez down if he goes into a prolonged slump, which appears to be the direction he is heading. Lately, he has not been the catalyst that he was earlier in the season.

I've thought the same thing about Gomez, and the stall pattern he is in makes me wonder if it wouldn't benefit him to spend some time in Rochester. But let's also note that Delmon Young didn't play in the Padres series. I'm not too surprised he was the odd man out in an NL park versus three right-handers, but I am a little surprised that he was the odd man out every night.

twayn said...
I think you have to also consider Bill Smith's mindset in the equation. Span has been in the organization since day one, while Young and Gomez are high-profile Smith acquisitions. As such, they are going to get every chance to prove themselves "at the major league level," as Bert likes to say (way too often). Smith does not have nearly the same vested interest in seeing Span succeed as a major league player as he does in seeing Young and Gomez succeed with the big club.

Well, it's not like Smith wasn't in the organization when they drafted and invested in Span, so there is some interest there. But I can't argue your point. It would be a much larger feather in Smith's cap if one of those guys turned a corner this year. I just wonder if they might not have more success turning that corner in AAA, and I suspect the Twins are debating the same thing, and have been for some time. The longer each one's development stalls, the more it makes sense to try something else.

ThatsRich said...
In addition to the contractual considerations you suggest, I think organization depth makes it clear that the pitcher is the right one to sacrifice.

TT said....
Where is that depth? The only pitcher at AAA that looks remotely read to step into the rotation is Liriano. And he isn't ready. Korecky may be able to step into the bullpen. But the reality is that the Twins vaunted pitching depth appears to be mostly anticipation, rather than anyone really ready for the major leagues.

If Span is going to be on the bench, I agree that the person to cut is the seventh bullpener, and I'd nominate Bass. I don't want Span on the bench, so I'd lean toward Gomez or Young, whichever the coaching staff thinks is more likely to regain confidence in Rochester.

I'll admit that I haven't really researched how the organizational depth is doing in Rochester. I don't think it's overwhelming. But I trust Rick Anderson to find someone else servicable to help out in the bullpen if need be.

Anonymous said...
Part of the problem is that the Twins' left-handed hitters as a group are much better than their right-handed hitters, so adding another lefty bat isn't as appealing as it otherwise would be.

Another fair point. I don't know if it changes anything for me, but it's becoming a little spooky, isn't it? This isn't a new problem this year, or even since Mauer and Morneau arrived. Jacque, Corey, AJ, Ortiz - it seems like we're trying to find someone to plug in between those guys every freaking year. I would love to hear someone from the Twins farm system try to explain this phenomenon.

curveball said....
If Span comes up, will he play? The Twins have to make a decision on him for 2009 especially. He's out of options and has to stay in 2009 or go elsewhere.

I also hadn't thought of that. Like the left-handed thing, I'm not sure it makes any difference right now. At the very least, I suspect they trust him to be a fourth outfielder. The question is whether he can be more than that, and he'll likely get a chance this year or next to show us.

As for next year, this just means the Twins won't re-sign Craig Monroe, and I don't think there are going to be any bitter tears over that. But I'll point out that the Monroe has had his moments, and if I hear one more indignant tirade about the money he's making, my temples might implode. Try out this exact change on the clue bus: before you gripe about the four million that they spent on Monroe (or the three they're spending on Lamb), you might want to gripe a bit about the $8 million dollars that they aren't spending on anyone. Good golly.

Notes from a Late Night Game

Josh's Thoughts said...
Like they did with Brandon Roy, I'm starting to get worried about the Wolves selecting either Mayo or Beasley and then trading him for a player lower on the board (a guy like Kevin Love) and then A) unload some salary and/or B) pick up a veteran role player as well. I hope that whoever they pick (as long as it's one of those two or Rose), I hope they keep them.

It was very quiet and very boring, but I'm excited about seeing what OJ Mayo can do. I just don't understand the argument that the Wolves "don't need" that position. The Wolves definitely need an outside threat to open up the inside game for Jefferson, and neither McCants or Foye showed that they can consistently play that role.

Would I have rather seen an impact center taken? Yep. But there wasn't one. There was a mediocre center. There were impact guys who might be able to occasionally play center (in fact, we have one of those already). But there wasn't an impact center.

Oh, and if you want to get to know Mayo a bit, check out this story by Chad Ford. It will get you excited.

(Late edit: I'm sick about this trade. Sick.)

Nick N said....
This is basically the reason I've been sticking up for Bonser all year long. His peripherals have been SOOO much better than his results. It strikes me that he's just been unbelievably unlucky. I really feel like he'd be fine if he got back into the rotation; the bullpen is not a particularly good fit for him.

He's become the single most puzzling and intriguing guy on the roster for me in the last 24 hours. And I don't believe it's just luck. But I can't figure out what is going on with him. This is just crazy.

Anonymous said...
Personally I would not describe the Marbury trade as the work of inspired, insightful masters of the trade. ... Imagine KG with Allen, and Gugliotta, and high number one pick, instead of a team cancer like Marbury. I'm sorry, but I really, really, really can't stand that guy.

Well, I won't blame the Wolves too much for that one. It's hard to look into someone's heart and determine if they're going to win or lose a battle with themselves. I really, really, really can't stand that guy either, but the difference is that I pity him, in the same way I would pity a fallen Greek hero in a cautionary myth.

The further we get from that break up, the more obvious it becomes that Marbury could have literally had it all. He was absolutely the perfect compliment to KG, and KG was the perfect compliment to him. KG needed someone selfish to play with him, someone who wanted the ball in the most crucial situations, and that was Steph. Steph needed someone who could take require attention and assist the offensive flow so Marbury didn't become a one-dimensional scorer, and that was KG. The fact that they liked each other so much wasn't just coincidence. It was fate gently nudging them to each other.

And ironically, Marbury's need to be "the man" on a team would have fared far better if he had stayed. It likely would have come to fruition during numerous playoff crunch time appearances, just like it did for Paul Pierce and (to a lesser extent) Ray Allen this year. And he would have been on a bigger stage, with more success than he ever actually achieved. And he threw that all away in a pique of jealousy. It honestly breaks my heart.

OK, that's it for this week. See you at the Metrodome this weekend. Hopefully on Monday we'll talking about twelve in a row.....

Notes from a Late Night Game

The Bonnes Bar and Baseball Basement is at least 12 degress cooler than the rest of the house and sports some HD goodness, so let's just watch most of a Twins game and write a bit, shall we?

Brendan Harris
Two home runs in two games makes me wonder if he's starting a streak that could raise his stats back to the level we anticipated. If so, he's got a long way to go.

Last year Harris sported a .286/.343/.434 line. This year, even after the two home runs, he's giving up 30 points in average and on-base percentage and 60 points of power. My perception is that he's struggled a bit all year, but he had a decent April, slid a little in May, and fell off the table for the first couple weeks of June. A week ago his slugging percentage was under .300. that's the kind of "production" that could have lead to him never being heard from again if Punto had just been healthy.

For the record, he never faced that kind of adversity last year. But he does have a history of bunching home runs together. Last year, of his twelve home runs, he hit six in a 3 week span around early June, and another four in 10 days in September.

The Gardy Move
I was a little surprised that Ron Gardenhire pulled Glen Perkins after five innings, but maybe I shouldn't have been. Perkins had thrown 91 pitches, and threw as many balls as strikes in the bottom of the fifth. Gardy removed him for pinch hitter Mike Lamb because it was Perkins turn to bat, and there were runners on first and second base with one out. He was looking to bust the game open.

But the Twins were already ahead 5-3. The move meant that the bullpen would need to hold the lead for four innings instead of just three. And it wasn't that great of a scoring opportunity.

In the short term, the move didn't work, but it did long term. Lamb grounded to first, moving the runners, which is precisely what Perkins probably would have tried to do with a bunt. But the Twins did pick up two more runs that inning (see below) and Brian Bass shut down the Padres in the sixth and seventh inning.

I'm not being critical. I just find it intersesting how Gardy played that situation. At best I would've considered it borderline aggressive, and the truth is that I really expected him to just let Perkins bunt those players over.

The Big Hit
The big hit that inning was by Carlos Gomez, and I must admit I wasn't optimistic about his chances. Here's Gomez, who hasn't improved a lick in his plate discipline since early May, facing Greg Maddux, who can toy with far more disciplined hitters.

Gomez didn't have a particularly good at-bat, but I seem to remember him laying off at least one pitch (I think it was the first one) that was down and away. He earned another ball when he didn't swing at a pitch that was near his elbow (that had already been hit once tonight). I'm pretty sure the two foul balls he hit were borderline balls, so no credit for those.

But Maddux messed up on that 2-2 ball that Gomez pulled on the ground into left field. Frankly, it looks like the control artist missed his spot inside, left the ball out over the plate, and Gomez was aggressive and skilled enough to take advantage. Sometimes that's all hitter needs.

Bonser's Ninth
I'm looking at Bonser's last five relief outings and it just doesn't make sense. He's pitched six innings which means he got eighteeen outs. Seven of them were strikouts, which is good. Another eight were ground outs, which is a really good sign. Only three were fly ball outs. What's more, he's only walked a single batter in those outings. All of those are great signs.

But in those six innings, he's given up eighteen hits?!? Are you kidding me? Eighteen? How do you get 85% or your outs from strikeouts and ground balls and still give up that many hits?

Last nigth he got two strikeouts, one ground ball out, one ground ball that was an error, and one ground ball that was a single. Which means he was a dribbler short of giving up another run. Goofy.

The Wolves Game
They make draft maneuvering sound like chess, but for the Wolves, it's really more of a child's board game.

And it's simpler than that, because the Wolves don't need to make a move. If they do nothing more than stand pat, they're going to either end up with Michael Beasley or OJ Mayo, and both would be outstanding additions to this team. Instead, Wolves fans are having the snot scared out of them amid speculation the Wolves are actively looking to move down in the draft.

There used to be a time that the Wolves looked like masters of the game with their early draft picks. They picked KG up as the fifth pick, and people still don't recognize just how inspipred that was. They also maneuvered their way into the Stephon Marbury pick, which was equally insightful. Even Wally Sczerbiak, who I believed they drafted sixth overall, ended up being a solid move. Those were the ony low picks they had for most of KG's time here, thanks to all the "skip a turn" cards we gathered from Joe Smith's contract.

But lately, the game has been a little trickier. Last year's pick, Corey Brewer, is going to need to start scoring to be anywhere near the pick they invested in him. And the last time the Wolves moved down in the draft they essentially chose Randy Foye over Brandon Roy. With Roy's play the last two years, that now looks disasterous. Given that history and that they are guaranteed a difference maker by standing pat, you would think they would sit tight with the cards they have.

Instead, every early rumor had them looking to trade down with this pick, and every sound bite muttered by TWolves management for the last 48 hours sounds like they're preparing their fan base for that move. If they turn this pick into anything less than additional lottery picks in future years, it will be (probably correctly) judged a mistake.

My biggest fear is that they move down not for additional lottery picks or for a veteran role player, but to shed the contract of Antoine Walker, Troy Hudson or Marko Jaric. While nobody doubts the debilitating effect these types of contracts have in the NBA, that additional salary space doesn't buy the Wolves much this year (because they're still going to have a lot of salary) or in future years (because so much cash comes off the books already).

All it would really do is save owner Glen Taylor some money. If that means costing the Wolves Beasley or Mayo, fans have the right to skip over "dissappointed" and advance directly to "betrayed".