From the Handbook: Joe Crede

In last night's Seth Speaks podcast, I was asked if I thought Joe Crede might return to the Twins. By way of an answer, I'm pulling this piece I wrote for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, addressed to the Twins General Manager. I hope you like it.

-------------------------

Call it the Luis Rivas syndrome.

For years, the Twins and Twins fans lamented the lack of development of Rivas, who started at second base for the Twins for five years, posting a career OPS of 681. Yet despite the perennial disappointment, he always returned for a simple reason: he never became good enough to get expensive.

I wonder if we might need to rename the syndrome this offseason.

Prior to the All-Star break, if anyone would’ve told me that this organization would have any chance to re-sign Joe Crede, I would’ve politely questioned their sanity. Crede had performed too well with 14 home runs and Gold Glove defense. He was positioned to draw a multi-year deal from someone, and the Twins weren’t going to make a multi-year commitment when they had prospect third baseman Danny Valencia working his way through the minors.

Three dismal months later, Crede suddenly makes more sense, because he never became good enough to get expensive. He spent a good chunk of the last three months injured (only 81 at-bats) so it seems unlikely he’ll earn a multi-year deal. (That dismal showing also means he won’t be ranked highly by Elias, eliminating the need to offer him arbitration.)

On the Twins side, there is still a need. Valencia wasn’t called up in September, so it’s unlikely everyone in the organization feels he’s the answer for Opening Day. And if someone keeps the position warm for half a year, Valencia won’t qualify for Super-2 status down the road. Plus, Crede’s key assets still remain – he’s a righthanded power hitter who plays fantastic defense at third base. That’s a better fit than most free agent third basemen.

And the injuries? Well, the team won’t be playing on the turf next year, which makes Crede more appealing. Also, the Twins were more patient than they probably should have been with Crede’s nagging injuries, which likely earned some points with Crede and agent Scott Boras. And if Crede breaks down over the second half of the season, you can turn to Valencia who should be a little closer to ready. On the other hand, he’s undergoing his third back surgery this year. Maybe you just want to move on.

Either way, there’s bad news here. You’re managing a team that wouldn’t even think about signing a guy who had a 750 OPS at the all-star break. However, once he posted a 558 OPS while playing in just 22 games afterwards – now he’s looking like a good fit. How depressing is that?

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $2M plus incentives

Twinsfest (Day 2) and Nick Punto Day (really!)

The internet is crawling with exciting reports about the Twins becoming a serious player for Orlando Hudson and an agreed 10-year framework for Joe Mauer's new contract. So let's talk about...my second day at Twinsfest?

Yep. Really, I have to, partly because I didn't get to the Nick Punto Day thing, and partly because I want to give some shouts out to some folks I met.

• I met Seth Stohs at Twinsfest, complete with his SethSpeaks.net baseball hat. I gotta admit, that hat is brilliant. It gives readers a chance to easily identify him and we had several long and fun conversations with folks who simply wanted to talk about offseason moves or prospects.
  
  You probably already know this if you listen to his podcast, but he's about the nicest guy ever. If you ever see him, I encourage you to introduce yourself and talk Twins with him. I promise, it won't be awkward.


• Speaking of awkward, I also met Topper Anton of the Twins blog Curve for a Strike. In the course of getting to know each other, he revealed that he attended Jefferson High School in Bloomington, from which I also graduated. Which led to this conversation:
  
  Me: Really? Cool. We probably had some of the same teachers. I graduated in 1985.
  
  Topper: I was born in 1985.
  
  And that's when I punched Topper in the face. Which was awkward.
  
  (No, I didn't. Because he's 18 years younger than me and could probably kick my butt.)


• The three of us headed over to the Star-Tribune booth to meet Howard Sinker who we knew was going to be there from 12:00 to 1:00. It was great talking about the offseason and the plans for the StarTribune.com's new Twins page, which I'm very excited to see. I also met his fiance, who looks way too familiar, but I can't place.
  


• Also at the Star-Tribune booth was Kirsten Brown of K-Bro's Baseball Blog and her mom. We had a nice conversation about having a Nick Punto Day, which is something in which I'm hoping every Twins blogger can participate. It was proposed by blogger Andrew Kneeland of Twins Target on Twitter a few days ago, and I fully support the idea. His followup email explains it well:
  
  Nick Punto could quite possibly be the most controversial figure on the Minnesota Twins. Some hate him, a few love him, and even more think he is a decent utility infielder.
  
  I thought it would be a good idea to hold a Nick Punto Day among Twins' bloggers. On Feb. 12 (two weeks from now) post your Nick Punto thoughts on your blog, and we will get a chance to see how this incredible blogging community feels about Nick Punto. (In the future we can hold these events for other players, but for now, the focus is on Little Nicky Punto!)
  
  Where do you stand? How do you view the player who Gardy seems to be obsessed with? What is the ideal position for Punto? Feel free to go any number of ways with this topic, but please keep the focus on Punto.
  
  I am going to LOVE seeing what the wide independent audience of Twins bloggers comes up with for this. Praise? Rants? Analysis? History? Whimsy? I can hardly wait.
  
  Which brings up another good question: how can we find all the entries? I think we need a central place where people who are creating Nick Punto entries can post links so we can all find them. Otherwise, this should be an opportunity for the less-known bloggers to show what they can do alongside some of the more read blogs, don't you think?
  
  So I'm open to ideas. Here's the thing: it can't involve me fielding a bunch of emails and posting a bunch of links. Is there a way an RSS feed could be setup that we could all post to and then include on our sidebars for one day? Or someone want to set up a NickPuntoDay.com site that we can all email links to? Post your ideas/thoughts in the comments section or email me.
  
  
• Also at the Star-Tribune booth I spoke with Joe Christensen for several minutes about the offseason and internet publishing. He is a kind and very genuine guy.


• And I finished off the time at Twinsfest by wolfing down some lunch while speaking with Fanatic Jack who is a lot less tense than you might expect from listening to his podcast. We had a pleasant debate about several of the Twins offseason moves and priorities over a Turkey sandwich.

And then I left before my car got a ticket. I'll mimic that now, bolting from this entry earlier than I'd like. I hope to be back tomorrow with some real news to talk about. Until then, plan your Nick Punto Day entry!

Twinsfest and Nick Punto Day!

I promised several tweet from Twinsfest - and then totally failed to make any. Sorry gang. The simple fact is that I was almost always with people at Twinsfest, and I haven't mastered the younger generation's skill of texting on my phone while not appearing (or at least feeling) rude. So instead, let's just have a bullet list entry with notes from Twinsfest.

• I started with a highlight - a couple of hot dogs with sauerkraut and mustard. I swear to gawd, I would go to Twinsfest annually just to have a couple of hot dogs. Since it was Friday night, I washed it down with tap Summit and the whole kit-n-caboodle cost me just $7.50. Turns out that the hot dogs were 2-for-1 and tap Summit was $3.50 less than any bottled beer. It also turns out that caboodle is spelled with a "c" according to blogger.com. Who knew?


• Before the event we went to Dan Kelly's for a beer and after it we went to Maxwell's. Those two are my two favorite pre/post game bars, and I'm wondering how soon I will find a regular place nearer Target Field.


• We tried to win the free season tickets from the KSTP booth, but would have been more than satisfied with a free pint glass. We were shut out. I'm really disappointed with myself for not trying to negotiate the free pint glass. That's just bad driving.


• Speaking of bad driving, we talked with the folks at the Target Field display about their food options. It started as a very pleasant conversation. I'm excited about the options there, and they were receptive to our lobbying for Surly to be included in the available beers. Of course, we also pointedly argued that they couldn't claim to have Minnesota food fare and not have anything with Spam.
  
  OK, we likely didn't help our credibility much with that last point.
  
  But the really disappointing part of that conversation was the revelation that the Murray's Steak Sandwiches that are going to be served at Target Field are not the same as the ones they currently serve in the bar at Murray's. They're coming up with something new, instead. In fact, they haven't even determined what it is going to be.
  
  (These sandwiches, as you know if you know me, are ambrosia. Char-grilled, oh-so-tender, pink-fibered ambrosia, cut into tiny chunks and covered with cheese and bacon. I would walk over hot coals for that thing. They only serve it at lunch and they only serve it in the bar. There. Now you have lunch plans today.)
  
  Worse, once they create this new...this new... I'm going to go with "monstrosity"..., they're going to replace the sandwich they currently have with it. It's the worst possible situation.


• My pint glass remorse was lightened at the bargain merchandise table. I got a kinda neat orange Twins spring training hat for $2, and then we talked the guy down on a button-up Twins shirt for $10. The hat has quickly become on of my favorites. And though it's a good hat, I'll fully admit it's reached that status mostly because it was just $2. They didn't have pint glasses.


• Please, gawd, don't let them shave the steak for those sandwiches. It HAS to be bite-sized chunks of beef. If they try to create a Philly Cheesesteak, which they will inevitably butcher, and ALSO screw up my steak sandwich, I'm going to be inconsolable.


• I paid considerably more than $2 at our next stop, which was a booth where they were selling the coffee table book The Twins at the Met by Bob Showlers. I had a great talk with Bob about putting the book together, and it was probably the highlight of the night.
  
  The book started as a bunch of pictures from The Met of players, coaches, press - everyone. Then he interviewed players, showing them the pictures and letting them spit out their memories. Taking a look at it today I came across a great passage that I have to share. It's in a section about Billy Martin and the person remembering is Charley Walters, who you may know as a Pioneer Press columnist but who was also a pitcher for the Twins in 1969, the year Martin managed.
  
  "In 1969, we started the season 0-4. We're in Anaheim for a series against the Angels and I'm sound asleep in my hotel room when the phone rings at 3:30 am. It's Ted Uhlander, and he says "We've got an unbelievable party going on. You've got to come down to room 203." I could hear women and music and laughter in the background. I was 22 years old and single at the time, but there was no way I was going down to that party. It was the middle of the night, we've just lost our first four games and I wasn't going to do anything that might get me sent to the minors. I told Ted I wasn't coming down and he tells me to hang on because someone wants to talk to me. Another guy gets on the phone and says "Hey Big Shooter, this is Billy. You've got five minutes to get your ass down here. It was Billy Martin, our manager. I said, "I'll be right down."
  
  I'm excited about this book. I wish I would've had it earlier. By the way, if you want some more stories on Billy Martin and that 1969 season, be sure to pre-order the new Twins Annual by Maple Street Press which TwinsCentric put together (and I edited). It has a fantastic story by Jim Thielman about the 1969 Twins focusing on the Billy Martin-Dave Boswell fight. I can't think of a better thing to have handy when listening to those spring training games.
  


• If you want to sell something from Murray's, how about the garlic toast they have in the bar? Offer me a sleeve of those things for $5 and the popcorn guy will go out of business.


• I later had a talk with Nick Vetter, the owner of Low and Inside, a printing company which specializes in printing baseball merchandise and publishing. He shared that he has been going to the opening game of each brand new ballpark since sometime in the 90s. Needless to say he's pretty excited about being able to finally go to one for his hometown team. I love that idea.


• It's hopeless, isn't it? It's going to go the way of my lamb sirloin with that tasty dipping sauce they had at Palomino in the 09's. I hate change.


• And I finished Friday night with a long conversation with Minnesota Score magazine about publishing sports magazines, getting advertising and where one can distribute the issues. I stopped by their web site and found out that David Zingler, who used to write for MPR's baseball blog, is writing there, which is a nice surprise.

And that's it for Friday night. I'd like to tell you about Saturday which was probably a lot more relevant to a Twins blog, but I'm out of time for tonight. For that matter, it's also when we talked about Nick Punto Day, which is part of the title of this post, but still, it's going to have to wait. I'll check in tomorrow with the rest, and likely another half dozen Murray's steak sandwich rants.

Touching Base with Second Base

There are six names below, four of whom are gone, leaving....three?

Second Base - The market for second basemen is so thick you can take your pick. I'm budgeting up to $7 million for Placido Polanco, Freddy Sanchez, Mark DeRosa, Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez. Heck, I'll even jump on Akinori Iwamura if his option isn't picked up. I'm not that concerned about which one, and I'm not hesitant to offer a multi-year deal. In fact, I'd love to not worry about that spot for the next few years. Sorry Alexi. You're on my bench for now.

That's from my blueprint in the TwinsCentric GM Handbook, and it looks like that $7 million budget was more than enough to nab most of these guys:

• Iwamura was traded to someone else though it looks like the Twins were poised to get him, and he'll be paid just $4.25M this year.
• Sanchez stayed with the Giants when both sides agree to $12 million over 2 years.
• Polanco signed with the Phillies for 3 years and $18 million, but that was to play third base
• DeRosa also signed with the Giants, presumably to play third base, for $12 million over 2 years.

That leaves two guys and the sentiment above still applies - I'm not that concerned about which one. That doesn't mean they're the same guy.

Orlando Hudson is perceived as being the safer bet because he's been so consistent. For instance, here are his on-base percentage of the last 4 years (the league average is about .340): .357, .367, 376, .354. He's also won a Gold Gloves at second base in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009. That's the kind of consistency that edges a player over the other mediocre free agents. By most accounts that's where Hudson is right now: considering offers, making a choice, and setting the market for several remaining free agents.

The biggest concern about Hudson, a late-season benching, is likely overblown. He was benched at the end of last season in favor of Ronnie Belliard, who the Dodgers had acquired in a last second trade. The story was spun that Hudson was benched because L.A. didn't want to pay him various plate appearance incentives in his contract, but Hudson reached all those incentives anyway. It's more likely that he was benched because Belliard was white-hot (he posted a 1.034 OPS with L.A.) and Hudson was brutal (batting just .227 after August 31st).

The concern shouldn't be whether Hudson had a bad year. He didn't. He posted respectable numbers, made more respectable because Dodger Stadium depresses hitting statistics. The concern should be about why Hudson was brutal at the end of the season. It looks like he was hurt, missing time with a strained groin a couple of seeks before Belliard was acquired. Injuries have nagged at Hudson throughout his career. And now he's 33 years old, and second basemen lose their legs quickly, and the defensive metrics say that his reputation is higher than it should be at this age.

That doesn't mean he's done. It just means that even with all that consistency there is some risk too.

Felipe Lopez, in some ways, is exactly the opposite. Once upon a time he was a potential star, even hitting 23 home run as a shortstop for the Reds as recently as 2005. Then he was traded to Washington where he struggled for years. As soon as he left that team he was seemingly reborn putting up positive offensive numbers for the last two years, even exceeding Hudson last year.

The promise of being a power-speed combo shortstop is long gone, but Lopez has settled into a second baseman who hits a half dozen home runs and steals a half dozen bases but whose ability to get on base varies from year to year. Defensively, he's hard to judge. We know he was a bad shortstop, but he seems to be at least passable at second base. Metrics like UZR don't help much since they've been wildly inconsistent. But last year they were very positive, far outpacing Hudson, though he has nowhere near the defensive reputation of Hudson.

You lose the consistency with Lopez, but he's on a 2-and-a-half year upswing. He's also two-and-a-half years younger than Hudson, meaning you could sign him for a two-year contract and when he finished it he would still be younger than Hudson is right now.

Neither of these guys are all-stars. Neither of these guys are without risk. You could even argue that given their middling offensive production, neither is that appealing unless you are a team desparately needs a right-handed hitting, good-fielding second baseman that can get on base a lot. Which, of course, the Twins are.

And now we're hearing a third name, one which Twins fans are more familiar with. A few months ago I wrote that there was zero chance Orlando Cabrera returned to the Twins to play second base. I was wrong. Major League Baseball has collectively decided that Cabrera is no longer a shortstop, and he and his agent have switched their focus to second base.

(As an aside, trading for JJ Hardy might go down as one of the best offseason moves by any GM of any team. The free agent shortstop market was every bit as brutal as it looked to be, and worse in fact. After Marco Scutaro, the top signing shortstop was....John McDonald who re-signed with the Blue Jays for two years and three million dollars. We might end up talking about that Hardy trade the way we talk about the Shannon Stewart-Bobby Kielty trade.)

Cabrera is right-handed, but he's older (35) than these guys. He's worse and getting on base (.313 last year). He hasn't played more than three innings since 1998. There is no way I can rank him at the same level as Hudson or Lopez.

But we need to recognize that statisticians don't have the market cornered on what wins ball games. Cabrera has now appeared in five postseasons over the last six years, consistently finding himself on successful teams, and to me that counts for something. He also had a significant impact on the Twins playoff run last year, both anecdotally and statistically.

So he's making my list of guys I'll be thrilled to see added to this team. And more than a little bitter if they don't.

------------------

Twins Takes

• First, a reminder - you can follow me on Twitter at Twitter.com/twinsgeek. And I say that because I hope to tweet from TwinsFest this weekend. I'm afraid I don't know exactly when I'm going, but I'll tweet when I'm there.

• Last night was the deciding game nine for the Dominican Winter League Championship. And taking the hill for the winning team was our own Francisco Liriano. He's been putting up ridiculous stats this winter. And every time we want to talk about them, we feel obliged to point out that this is just winter league, and the success might not translate, blah, blah, blah.
  
  No more. I got to watch last night's start on ESPN 360 and let me tell you - it's gonna translate. People have been talking about his velocity and how it's come back, but we hear that all the time. What was really eye-opening was his slider. It was ridiculous, absolutely unhittable. I couldn't believe the break it was getting. It wasn't just good. It was...
  
  It was 2006. Like when I would sit in the dome, and he would come in for relief, and you would watch a batter that didn't have a chance, and then turn to a total stranger a row away and both be just shaking your heads with these $hit-eating grins on your face. It was like that.
  
  I'll say it - my expectations are sky-high for him this year. I'm more of a "show me" guy when it comes to prospects and winter leagues, but Liriano showed me tonight. Don't tell me about the competition there. It wouldn't have mattered if he was facing AA ballplayers or the Yankees. Nobody was going to do much with those pitches.
  


• There have been some rumors going around that maybe a deal for Joe Mauer could get done soon. Just so we set expectations a little, I thought it might be a good idea to see what the top free agent hitters were paid over the last four offseasons.
  
  This year - Matt Holliday - 7 years, $17+ million per year
  Last year - Mark Teixera - 8 years, $22.5 millin per year
  2 years ago - Alex Rodgiguez - 10 years, $27.5 million per year
  2 years ago - Torii Hunter - 5 years, $18 million per year
  3 years ago - Alfonso Soriano - 8 years, $17 million per year
  
  So where would you rank Mauer in that list? He's younger than any of them, so he could get as long a deal as anyone. He certainly outranks the guys who didn't clear $20 million per year. But it's probably not feasible for the Twins to pay him as much as the Yankees paid their free agents.
  
  It sounds to me like a nine or ten year deal is feasible, and it would average at least $20 million per year. That's probably the minimum of what he's worth.
  
  The next question is "How much is too much?" But I don't think I want to think about that just yet.
  

Locked and Loaded

"The Nationals and Rays both are pursuing [Orlando] Hudson, but his negotiations remain fluid, major-league sources say. At least one, unidentified team might still be in the mix. That team could be the Twins, who are known to have interest in Hudson, major-league sources say."

— Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports

Don't you toy with me Fox Sports. Don't you DARE toy with me.

As I drove into work today, I outlined the plan of attack tonight's blog post would take:

1. Intro (write last)

2. A few paragraphs on how bad the Twins second base options were last year
2.1 Overall Stats
2.2 Production compared to the rest of the league
2.3 Defensive putridity (I'm coining that phrase)

3. Two paragraphs on how terrible the #2 hitters were

4. Several paragraphs pointing out the low-hanging fruit available on the 2B free agent market
4.1. go through the candidates
4.2. compare it to how terrible the free agent crop has been in previous years
4.3. what has happened to those guys, and how much have they signed for
4.4. who is left

5. Stories that are scaring me
5.1. Lavelle saying Twins don't like Felipe Lopez' defense
5.2. Hudson and the Nationals
5.3. Lavelle saying Twins don't want to commit to multiple years

6. Examine fear of long-term contract
6.1. talk about how hopeless the future looked at second base in the minors
6.2. point out that the Twins will likely be in exactly the same boat next season
6.3. review age of candidates?
6.4. talk about the joy of signing a multi-year deal when market is down

7. Finish with how dismal production has been from that spot for the entire decade

8. Recap
8.1. faced with an dismal need, not just for this last year but for the previous ten years and for probably a half dozen in the future, and
8.2. given a FA market of overflowing available 2B talent who also just happened to be a fit for the #2 spot in the lineup...
8.3. The Twins did nothing

9. Vicious, biting conclusion. (then back to the intro and finally the title.)

So that's the plan. It's not hard - it really does write itself.

But I'm tired, I have a chess club to organize, I promised my kids I'd watch a movie with them tonight, and best of all Ken and Jon Paul at Fox Sports bought me at least a slight reprieve.

But it's good to be ready....

Ruining the Thome Signing with a Bunch of Math

There's going to be a lot of discussion about Jim Thome's potential value to the Twins in 2010 - how he can platoon with Delmon Young, rest Justin Morneau occasionally, be a presence in the clubhouse and provide a nice late-inning option for manager Ron Gardenhire. Just scroll down those blogs over there on the lower right, and you'll get plenty of solid analysis on all these aspects.

But I want to concentrate on just how valuable a bench bat is when used in late-inning situations? I've wondered about this since 2002 and 2003 when that role was often filled by Bobby Kielty. I remember writing about a quote from Ron Gardenhire stating that he thought Kielty was more valuable as a bench option than an everyday player, because that one 9th inning at-bat could be in a more valuable spot.

That's the kind of statement that makes disciples of advanced metrics like WAR throw up in their mouth a little bit. But it's also the kind of statement that makes disciples of advanced metrics like WPA applaud. Because it is undoubtedly true that a late inning at-bat can be much more valuable than an early inning at-bat. What isn't clear is how much more valuable, and whether it really makes sense to reserve a player for just those situations.

So with Thome joining the club, I crunched a few numbers for your digestion and comments. Let's start with a scenario. Imagine a player on the home team leading off an inning with a home run. How much does that home run really help the ball club?

The answer depends on the score and the inning. And you can see it in the graph below:


That axis at the bottom is innings. So if you look at the dark blue line (which represents when the home team trails by a run), it shows that if the home run leads off the first inning, it improves the teams chances to win by just over 10%. But if it happens in the ninth inning (where it ties the game), it improves the team's chance to win by over 45%. Think about that: the same hit, in the same situation but in a later inning, is four times more valuable in the ninth inning than in the first inning.

The temptation for people studying players is to write this finding off. After all, there's plenty of evidence that players aren't clutch. Thome can't choose to hit that home run late in the game as opposed to when it has less value. So from a player's perspective, when trying to determine their overall value, we focus on the raw numbers and not when it happened.

But we aren't really studying the player in this case - we're studying the manager. And the manager DOES get to make a choice. He gets to choose the best situation in which his bench players get to bat. Thome might not be more clutch in that position, but he's significantly more likely to hit a right-handed pitcher silly than Brendan Harris. If he hits a home run in that ninth inning of a one run game, it's more valuable than if he had hit a lead off home run in the first, third and fifth innings combined.

Of course, the chart also shows that it's significantly different if the game isn't a tie game or the home team isn't losing by just one run. If the home team is winning, putting that slugger in late innings to jack a ball into the right field bleachers doesn't add much, as the game is almost decided. That's fine - so keep in the defensive specialist. And if the home team is down by two runs, it's actually considerably more valuable to hit that lead off home run in the eighth inning than in the ninth, since it gives your team more time to come back.

So just how often do baseball games enter the ninth inning fairly close? Below you'll see some numbers for games between 1977 and 2006. I'm afraid I don't have percentages for you, but you can see close games are the most common occurrence, but not necessarily overwhelmingly so.



Finally, I should mention that I only charted the value increase of a specific outcome: a lead off home run. What if he struck out instead. I suspect that the difference isn't quite as pronounced with other outcomes, but the trend is similar. An out in the ninth inning of a one-run game is more important than an out in the second inning.

No matter what outcome you choose, in the late innings success counts more and failure hurts more. Either way, the manager wants to have a very good hitter available.

And now, he's got one.

Copying Cleveland

When the Cleveland Indians opened up Jacobs Field in 1994, they were in a bit of slump. Kind of like Delmon Young has been in a bit of slump - since 2006.

But believe it or not, the Indians' slump was worse, because it went back about 35 years. They hadn’t been to the playoffs since 1954. They had just six winning seasons since 1959. And since 1947 they had played in Cleveland Stadium, derisively referred to as The Mistake by The Lake.

That was about to all change. The opening of Jacob's Field corresponded with a surge of talent from the Indians farm system. The anticipated revenues from the new stadium led to a tripling of payroll from $8 million in 1992 to $28 million in 1994.

The popular story is that the Indians used that money to tie young, talented players to long-term deals and fuel their astounding success for the latter half of the decade. That's only half the story. They certainly had success. Their win rate improved +26 games(!) on average between the five years before The Jake opened and the five years after the Jake opened. And there's no question that they were able to reward and keep homegrown talent like Kenny Lofton, Charles Nagy, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Omar Vizquel and Manny Ramirez with the revenue from the new stadium.

But the other half of the story is that the Indians were aggressive regularly in the free agent market, starting the first year the park opened. That year they signed veteran Eddie Murray to be the designated hitter and pitcher Dennis Martinez received a top-25 contract to anchor the rotation. (It was during that contract that Martinez hit Kirby Puckett in the head with a pitch, ending his career.)

It wouldn't be the last time that decade that the Indians would use their new golden goose to acquire expensive talent from outside the organization:

• In 1998 they traded for third baseman Travis Fryman, who was just 28 years old and would finish his career with Cleveland.
• In 1999 they signed a 30-year-old Roberto Alomar to a five-year contract to play second base. He responded with three unbelievable seasons before being traded to the Mets to finish out the contract.
• In 2000 they paid pitcher Chuck Finley $28 million over the last three years of his career.
• In 2001 they signed Ellis Burks as a free agent and paid him over $18 million to DH for them over the next three years.

In each case, the Indians used their payroll to acquire a high-end player at a position of need and extend the organization's success from the late 90s. It worked. The Indians posted a .585 winning percentage from 94-2001, which translates to about 95 wins over a 162-game season. That included a 100-win season in 1995, six trips to the playoffs and two trips to the World Series.

The model for success had been built, and numerous MLB teams tried to copy it. But only half of the strategy was trumpeted by the baseball public. Yes, a strong farm system and long-term deals had established a base for the success. But Cleveland's management raised the level of their team from "good" to "elite" by spending money strategically on high-end players outside of the organization.

----------------------------

The preceding is loosely based on a much (much, much) longer story I wrote for the Maple Street Press Minnesota Twins Annual, coming to a magazine rack near you in March. (Or you can pre-order it here.) The story is a comprehensive review of what other "small market" teams have done with their new found revenues as stadiums opened.


ONE LAST THING
Tuesday Night on Seth Speaks Podcast, he's going to have a special two-hour show featuring so many minor league Twins prospects that I can't name them all. Make sure and check it out.

On Sentences and Seattle

Rumors leaked out Tuesday that the Mariners were close to signing 23-year-old Cy Young runner-up Felix Hernandez to a five-year extension for $78 million. Predictably, there was much rejoicing. To Mariners fans, or even to sportswriters who don’t want to delve into this stuff too far, there are only two phrases from that sentence that they care about: “Cy Young runner-up” and “five-year extension.”

Maybe that’s the way it should be. After all, it’s not our money. And there is something to be said for getting the big rocks in place and letting the pebbles settle in around them.

But I was still surprised by the universal praise it from people who study this stuff. I probably shouldn’t be, because there seems to be some serious man-crushing towards Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik right now. Primarily because:

1) His team improved by 24 games in his first year as general manager.
2) The improvement came partially by improving the Mariners' defense, and nothing is sexier to the sabremetric bent than defense right now.
3) He ripped off the salary-dumping Phillies when acquiring left-handed stud pitcher Cliff Lee.

So, he’s revered. You know he’s revered because he threw $6 million into a trade for Milton Bradley - and was PRAISED for it.

For the record, I'm not drinking the Mariners kool-aid just yet. Some see the 2010 AL West Champions. I see a 3-4-5 lineup of, um, who exactly? Franklin Gutierrez (764 OPS last year)? Ken Griffey (.214 BA last year)? Milton Bradley (who might literally be the last guy in MLB that you want to depend on day in and day out)? So I might not see eye-to-eye with everyone else on the Mariners and, subsequently, Jack Z. Keep this in mind.

Anyway, I was still surprised that everyone viewed this as such a clear victory for the Mariners GM. To see why I was puzzled, you have to see the year-by-year breakdown of the contract. Here it is, reportedly:

$3.5 million signing bonus
$6.5 million in 2010
$10 million in 2011
$18.5 million in 2012
$19.5 million in 2013
$20M million in 2014.

See how the amount climbs so rapidly over the next three years and then levels off? There's a reason for that. It's because the Mariners had rights to Hernandez for the next two years and they only had to pay him what an arbitrator said he would be worth. And from looking at comparable players with the same amount of service time, they were going to need to pay him around $7.5 million in 2010 and around $12 million in 2011.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, after 2011 he would be a free agent, and then anyone could pay him whatever they wanted. And if he continued to throw like he did last year, he could have been paid a LOT of money. For instance, CC Sabathia makes $23 million/year. Johan Santana is averaging slightly less than that. That's the neighborhood that Hernandez could've been in.

So the Mariners basically had a choice. They could either...

1) Give him the contract they gave him - 5 years/$78 million or
2) Renew his contract for the next two years at approximately $20 million and then try to bring him back as a free agent.

Let's make it even simpler, though slightly less accurate. Hernandez's agent essentially offered the Mariners a 3-year contract for 2012, 2013 and 2014 for about $20 million per year - but they had to sign it now, two years ahead of time.

Does that represent a bargain? Sure. It saves them a few million dollars per year down the road. More importantly it keeps them from needing to sign him for much longer when he becomes a free agent.

But it also represents an incredible risk. If Hernandez slips at all from last year's Cy Young caliber performance, he's being overpaid. And if he's (knock, knock) hurt, as 23-year-old arms often are? Forget about it. It would makes the Eric Bedard circus look like a meditation class.

So why is a Twins Geek giving this so much thought? (Because he's a geek? And kind of sad, really?) Because the Twins face their own must-sign guy this offseason, Joe Mauer. If that gets done, I wonder if a Mariners Geek will wonder why the state of Minnesota is praising Bill Smith.

And I wonder if I'll be able to objectively evaluate that deal. Or even see beyond the phrases: "AL MVP winner" and "staying in Minnesota."

The Arbitration Awards

I'm not gonna lie - I'm probably a little too proud of this.

This fall, two days after the Twins were knocked out of the playoffs, TwinsCentric (myself, Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson and Parker Hageman) released the GM Offseason Handbook. The idea was to create a reference that fans could monitor the offseason moves just like the general manager of the Twins. So it included all the same kinds of info and decisions that a GM might need to make, such as a comprehensive list of free agents, trade targets and arbitration decisions.

And because our favorite team is so fiscally conscious, it had to include projected salaries, because the Twins work on a budget. To this day, we don't know what that budget is exactly, but we guessed it would be about $95 million in the Handbook and went through and gave prices to everyone. Which, as you might imagine, is a study in educated guesswork.

As the offseason has rolled along, I've been really happy to see how close we've come for various free agents. I fully intend to bore you with a comparison at the end of the free agency period to see how we did. But as the arbitration agreements for the Twins came in yesterday, I wondered how close we came for those. It seemed pretty close on most, so I ran the numbers tonight. Here they are:

	Actual	GM Handbook
Harrris	$1,450,000	$1,300,000
Pavano	$7,000,000	$6,500,000
JJ Hardy	$5,100,000	$5,500,000
Guerrier	$3,150,000	$2,800,000
D Young	$2,600,000	$2,000,000
Crain	$2,000,000	$2,000,000
Liriano	$1,600,000	$1,800,000
Neshek	$625,000	$750,000
TOTAL	$23,525,000	$22,650,000

We were less than a million dollars off as a group, and most of that difference was because we expected Pavano to sign a two-year deal instead of a one-year deal.

The one I feel the worst about was Delmon Young's, because I still can't figure out how he ends up getting $2.6 million given his track record. I've never totally understood his contract situation, seeing as he had such a big contract straight out of the draft. If someone wants to explain that to me, I'd love to hear it.

Which one do we feel best about? Well, we couldn't have done much better with Crain, especially after reading other predictions that he wouldn't be kept or he would make around $3 million next year.

So, the point is - I guess it is that attention to detail can pay off, even if it's in a nerdy, baseball-obsessed kinda way.

And most surprising? I'm mildly surprised would be that the Twins offered Brendan Harris a two-year deal. I really like Harris as a utility solution and bench player, but I'm not sure I totally get the logic here. The Twins seem to have other solutions for that role, like Matt Tolbert or even Alexi Casilla. You could argue those players have more upside, though maybe can't be counted to perform at as high a level. But why lock yourself into Harris next year too? It's not like he was going to get crazy expensive.

There were questions on Twitter about whether this might indicate that Harris would have a starting infield spot, meaning that the Twins would not sign a free agent second or third baseman. I don't see it - except for one thing. If Harris were to start in 2010 and play well, this contract limits what the Twins will need to pay him in 2011.

It's only mildly surprising because the Twins did the same thing a couple of years ago with Nick Punto. Ironically, this deal might crowd Punto off the roster when his contract expires at the end of this year. Especially if the Twins take advantage of the deep second baseman market.

It's not a terrible signing - Harris is a good bench addition and this is a good contract to lock that in. It's just puzzling. I'd love to here from the Twins why they thought this was necessary, or even savvy.

A Cautionary Tale and an Opportunity

Eric Byrnes looks like he could be both a cautionary tale and an opportunity for the Twins.

The outfielder was released by the Diamondbacks on Friday after playing with them for four years. It was a productive four years for Byrnes, less so for the Diamondbacks. Originally signed to a couple of reasonable one-year deals, Byrnes reached free agency immediately after a .286/.353/.460, 50 stolen base season for the NL West winning Diamondbacks. The popular player was rewarded with a 3-year, $30 million contract.

He's come nowhere near league-average production since. The last two years he's struggled with injuries, mostly hamstring in 2008 and a broken hand in 2009. After trying for months to find someone to trade him and his $11 million contract to, the DBacks admitted defeat and just released him Friday. I suspect we'll hear his name more than once as an example of how to be careful extending 30-ish outfielders when Michael Cuddyer nears free agency after 2011.

But for now, he represents an opportunity. The Twins need a fourth outfielder.

And this is where I caution anyone from throwing the two words "Jason Pridie" into the comments section. He's now 26, he posted a .295 OBP in AAA-Rochester last year and he struck out 152 times versus 30 walks. I don't care if he can navigate the outfield like a dragonfly on Red Bull, he is of little to no use unless you can designate a hitter for him. Has anyone ever done that? Let their pitcher bat and used the designated hitter on a whifftastic fielder? Is that even legal?

Byrnes is a decent answer for a choice I didn't want the Twins to have to make. Previously I thought they needed to decide between a fourth outfielder that could backup Denard Span in center field versus a veteran who could push Delmon Young to keep his head on straight. Byrnes has mostly played left field while with the Diamondbacks, but he played center field with the A's, and his career UZR there is positive. I don't think he's someone you want to trot out there everyday, but serving there in case of an injury is acceptable. And by all accounts, he brings it every day,plays good to above-average defense and sports a career OPS higher then Delmon's.

The biggest problem is that he's already being paid $11 million, so you can't just outbid someone for him. You have to convince him that the Twins are a desirable place for his career to bloom again, and that isn't going to happen if someone else offers him a starting spot. But if not (and that's possible given the bloated FA outfield market) convince him he just needs to beat out a very young, mostly disinterested, defensively painful, strike-zone-blind outfielder and he'll be the starting left fielder for a contending team.

That's not a bad sales pitch. For Eric Byrnes, I mean. Might want to not dwell on that too much in the next Twins Territory spot.

Head vs. Heart

An extra post today, because I just heard that Mike Redmond signed with the Indians. I wrote this for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook , basically an open letter to Bill Smith about the tough decision he had to make. Honestly, I wouldn't have faulted Smith either way, and that's a tribute to Redmond.

Personally, I wish the best for him, even with Cleveland. And I selfishly hope he'll come back to the Twins when his playing career is over.

------------------

Head vs. Heart… Head vs. Heart…

That’s what this decision is going to come down to for you. For years, Redmond has defied his age, but sooner or later Father Time has his day.

After five years of being the ideal backup catcher, the 38-year-old declined across the board this year. He hit .237, with just a 588 OPS. That latter number is BELOW that of Nick Punto. He threw out only five of forty runners. And he missed time early in the season with a sore shoulder.

This performance was made grimmer by the fact that the Twins suddenly seem to have a replacement for Red Dog. Jose Morales utilized his time with the Twins while Joe Mauer and Redmond were dealing with injuries. Morales posted an 742 OPS and threw out 8 of 26 stolen base attempts this year. He’s also 26 years old and financially desirable (i.e. cheap).

The head says it’s time to go with Morales. He’s not as good as he was this year offensively, but he’s certainly shown enough to earn the backup spot. Plus, if Mauer were to leave after 2010, you would like Morales to have as much experience as possible.

But the heart, the heart says Redmond just had a down year. That the shoulder was worse than we know. That the rotation needs a veteran hand occasionally. That the clubhouse needs some leadership, and the coaching staff needs one less kid to baby sit.

You can try to avoid the decision. You can offer Redmond an organizational coaching job, and be sure to be generous with the salary when you do. But if he wants to continue playing – and who would blame him if he did? – you’re going to need to decide whether to listen to your head or your heart.

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $900K

An Average Way Below Average

Check out this page for a second. Open it up in a new window while you read this. (Right-click, choose "Open in new window")

The link is to FanGraphs.com, a great site which is largely responsible for why we are all relying on Ultimate Zone Rating (or UZR) so heavily as a defensive metric. FanGraphs.com updates UZR’s regularly, so the stat has become readily available, which is a huge reason that it is widely used. The other reason is that it seems to be a good stat for judging defensive prowess; far from perfect, but good.

The page I linked to is one of several valuable ones at FanGraphs.com. It shows qualified right-fielders, and I'd like you to sort by the last column, UZR/150 (which is the projected UZR of players over 150 games). UZR’s are supposed to measure the number of runs a player is better or worse than average at that position. So in this case, you can see that Nelson Cruz is at the top of the list, +13.4 runs better than average, while Brad Hawpe is at the bottom of the list, -25.4 runs worse than average.

But what struck me about this list is how two-thirds of the players are below average. Of the 19 qualified players (which I think means they played at least 900 innings in right field), only 6 of them are above average, and those six “saved” just 59.8 runs. But 13 are below average, and they cost their teams 140.3 runs.

Overall, the number of runs saved should be almost exactly the same. That’s how you determine what average is.

So what’s the explanation?

• Possibly the right fielders who played in 2009 were worse than in previous years, and it’s the previous years benchmarks that are set. I don’t know if I’ve ever heard how far back UZR goes in determining what “average” plays are.


• Perhaps right-fielders are substituted in late games by better defensive options frequently. Those subs drive up the average, making the hitting right-fielders looks worse defensively.


• There are definitely a handful of above average fielding outfielders that didn’t play quite so much. In fact, it looks like there are a number of outfielder with between 590 and 900 innings who are above average, but didn’t make this list. I wonder how many of them are superior defensive outfielders who can’t hit enough for a regular spot and spend time there for some other reason.
  

Ultimately, I don't know how important this is. But it is interesting that of the guys who are given the most playing time in right field, so many of them are below average. If anyone cares to study this more, or has some takes on it, I'd love to see it in the comments.

Blogging and Taxes

I’ll start with an apology to the greatest readers a guy could have. This isn’t going to be about baseball, and it isn’t going to be applicable to most of my regular readers. This is for the other bloggers out there. What's more, it's a repeat story, but since it's tax season, and since I don't really have time for a decent post anyway, let's run with this for today.

Besides, maybe it'll make you some money.

We’ll get back to our irregularly scheduled baseball coverage in our next entry…..

Bloggers, I really wish someone had told me seven years ago what I’m about to tell you.

Last Saturday, at the Twins bloggers gathering, the question was raised about whether or not bloggers can deduct certain costs from their taxes. The answer is ‘yes’, and the further answer is that this can be worth hundreds of dollars. But first, let’s get the disclaimer out of the way….

I am not a tax adviser. You should not mistake what I’m saying for advice from a tax adviser. This is general information only, and for specifics about everything I am about to tell you, you’re going to want to talk to an actual tax adviser. In fact, most of what you’re going to read here can be gleaned from spending about 45 minutes with a tax adviser. So you might want to do that if you have any questions.

The Strategy
You can deduct expenses related to your business, and if your business is blogging, then you can deduct those expenses. You can do this even if you aren’t actually making any money from blogging, provided it’s a “business”. This deduction applies to both your federal and state taxes.

For example, let’s say you find $2500 of expenses related to your business. (We’ll get to where you are finding those expenses in a second). And say you pay 28% federal tax and 6% state tax which means your paying about 34% in taxes. And say you also make all of $100 in income from ads on your blog and the occasional freelance writing gig.

Then your business lost $2400 this year. You can write that amount off, so you have $2400 less taxable income. Which means you don’t need to pay a 34% tax on that $2400, meaning you pay $816 less in taxes. And, since most of us have taxes already withheld from our paychecks, you’ll get back an extra $816 back in your tax refund. That’s how you make several hundred dollars from blogging.

By the way, the specifics of the above example might not be dead-on accurate. That’s because I’m not a tax adviser. I constructed it as a general example of how reducing the amount of taxes you need to pay can end up getting you extra money. You’ll want to talk to a tax adviser for specifics.

Making Blogging your Business
Blogging is your business if you are in it for a long-term profit. Otherwise, it’s a hobby. If it’s a hobby, you can still deduct some expenses, but you can’t deduct any expenses beyond the income you make. So in the example above, you would only be able to deduct $100 (because that was the only income you had), and you would only make back $34. You want your writing/blogging to be a business.

And, if you’ve been doing this for any length of time, it probably is, even if you haven’t been recognizing that. So it’s time to treat blogging, and the expenses associated with it, like you would if it was a business. So:

• Record your business expenses in a timely manner – This is THE MOST IMPORTANT part, so we’ll cover it more below.


• Have a plan to make a profit long-term. For instance, write up a plan that states how you’re going to build an audience on your blog, how you are going to try and use google ads to raise revenue, use your blog and audience as a marketing tool to draw freelance writing gigs, etc.


• You may want to register your business with your state. If it’s located in the state of MN, you can do so by filling out a form on this MN state government web site and paying $35. Name it whatever you like, such as Lastname Publishing or Lastname Media.


• Document instances where you tried to market your business, like times you tried to get paying jobs as a writer, or attempts to get ads on your site. You need to be able to show that you are actually trying to make money.

Again, it’s not important that you end up turning a profit, though if you end up doing so, you’re really in good shape. If you make money two out of seven years, the IRS can’t say you’re a hobby. But even if you lose money for twenty straight years, if you run your business like a business, you can be safe.

How safe? I don’t know. You might want to ask a tax adviser. Which I am not. I’m just trying to pass along some general information here.

Identifying Expenses
A lot of things can be counted as business expenses for your publishing company. The important part is the documentation (which I’ll get to in a minute). For example, as a baseball blogger you could deduct:

• Tickets to a game. And food at the game, for that matter.


• A portion of your cable TV bill. - If you can claim that you wouldn’t have cable TV at all without your blog, then you can write it all off. Or, if you estimate that 50% of your viewing on cable is sports for your baseball blog, you can write off 50% of your monthly cable bill.


• A portion of your hi-speed internet connection bill. - Again, if you can claim that you wouldn’t have hi-speed connection without your blog, then you can write it all off. Or, if you estimate that 75% of your internet use is because of your blog, you can write off 75% of your internet bill.


• Computer/laptop – Are you getting it for your business? If so, it’s mostly deductible.


• Baseball publications – The books you read about baseball.


• Baseball subscriptions – The ESPN Insider or Baseball Prospectus subscription you have.


• Cell phone – Maybe. You could conceivably deduct the portion of it that is related to your blogging. Or, if you also have a land line and you use the cell phone as your business phone, you could do the whole thing.


• Mileage – Going to the game? In 2009, you can deduct $0.55 per mile for the trip you make. In 2009, I think it was $0.55 per mile.


• Parking – For the game


• Entertainment – If you attended the blogger get-together, you can deduct that. Watching a game at a bar with friends and writing about it, or using it for research? You can deduct that, too.


• Web site costs, URL registration costs, etc. - That $35 cost you paid to register your domain name and the other $35 you paid to register your business is tax deductible.

There is one thing you probably don’t want to try and deduct. On Saturday, someone asked if space in your home that is used for the business is deductible. The answer I got is that you probably don’t want to do that. The IRS is pretty sensitive about it, and has really tightened their interpretation of it. For instance, the space must be solely and exclusively used for the business, like a separate room. And even then, there are some factors when you sell your house that you need to consider.

Again, like everything in this story, you’ll want to consult a registered tax adviser for the full story. Because – and I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this - I’m not one. And this is meant as general information.

How Do You Do It?
You need to treat these expenses like true business expenses, and that means you need to track them “co-temporaneously.” That means that you need to document the expense at or about the time it happens. An easy way to do this if you have a daily planner is to reserve a section for documenting these expenses.

For instance, if you dropped $20 at last Saturday’s BW3 gathering, you would turn to 3/14 in your planner and write:“$20.00, BW3 in Roseville, Blogger gathering to discuss future plans and watch USA/Canada.” And if the trip was five miles from your house you might then scribble: $5.50, 10 miles round trip to BW3”. I think you could also instead update a spreadsheet or something with that info (including the date), so you can add up the expenses later. Just remember that it has to happen at or about the time the expense happens.

It doesn’t hurt to have receipts, but the only time you need receipts is when it is an entertainment charge that is $75 or more. So even if you walked away from the BW3 without a receipt, but you know you dropped $20, you can claim it.

How much can you deduct? As much as is legitimate. But you’re likely to receive some extra attention from the IRS if it exceeds a couple of thousand dollars per year.

Finally, when you do your taxes, you’ll want to fill out a Schedule C. You can download/see that form here. Again, if you have any questions, to be safe you should probably contact a tax adviser for assistance. Because I’m still not one. And this is just meant for general information.

Review
Let’s try boiling down this whole thing into a hundred words or so as a summary:

1. If you treat your writing as a business, you can subtract expenses related to that business from your personal income, which lowers your taxes and could get you a bigger refund.


2. To treat your writing as a business, at the very least you need to document those business expenses at or about the time they happen. If the entertainment expense is more than $75, you’ll need a receipt.


3. You can deduct a lot of stuff, including some utilities, entertainment, mileage, research and office equipment. You’ll deduct these on Schedule C, using the supporting documentation you have from #2.


4. I’m not a tax adviser. For specifics, you should talk to one. This is for general information.

The internet has changed writing considerably, and I think it’s generally been for the better. But it still isn’t clear how we’re all going to make a living from it. So many of us are just plugging along, building eyeballs, exercising our writing muscles, and hoping that business model emerges that makes sense. In the meantime, let’s make sure that we’re getting what we can monetarily from it. Hopefully this entry will help with that a little.

Even if it is just general information from a guy who is not a tax adviser.

Watching Washington

The Washington Nationals generate a few rumors regarding second basemen yesterday, which might be of interest to Twins fans.

The most interesting is that they Nationals are willing to do a 2-year deal with Orlando Hudson. I would think that anyone interested in Hudson would be willing to do a two-year deal. Certainly the Twins should be willing to do a two-year deal - they may have "candidates" to play second base in 2011, but they sure don't have anyone they need to save a spot for.

The most eyebrow raising news was a tweet from Nationals beat reporter William Ladson, saying that Hudson wants to get paid $9 million for 2010. I bet you do, Orlando. I'd like Jessica Simpson to stop by my place covered in dark chocolate. I think we have about the same chance of that happening. It still feels like Hudson will be available for $10-$12 million over two years. If so, the Twins need to be all over that, but we'll save that 800-word rant about seizing opportunities for later. It sounds like something that needs to start with a Stephen Covey quote. You've been warned.

Finally, Ladson also tweeted that the Nationals had interest in Adam Kennedy. It's been awhile since I've thought about Kennedy. It was November 5th, to be exact. Before that, it was when I was editing the TwinsCentric GM Offseason Handbook. Let's see what we said about him there....

Adam Kennedy
Age: 33 (DOB: 1/10/76) | 2009 Salary: $4M
2009 Stats: .289/.348/.411, 11 HR, 63 RBI
Perhaps best known in Minnesota as that Angels second baseman who randomly went deep three times on the Twins in an ALCS game back in 2002, Kennedy is actually very much the type of player they are likely to target this winter. He's a veteran who generally hits for a good average with a bit of power, he can play both second and third competently, and he has a good reputation around the league. His main drawback is that he bats from the left side. Still, at the right price, he could be a quality addition.
Estimated Contract: 2 years, $9M

Hm, left-handed, huh? I forgot about that. I'm going to hope that this Kennedy thing isn't a ruse by the Nationals to get Hudson to play ball. I'd have no problem with the Nationals signing Kennedy (though I suspect we overestimated the contract he'll get) and leaving Hudson one less suitor in the market.

There is one other thing worth noting about all these Nationals rumors and second baseman: as of a couple of months ago, they didn't need one. They informed Cristian Guzman, who is under contract for $9 million next year, that he was going to be moving from shortstop to second base because he defense has slipped so much. Nothing like a glut of free agents to make a desperate organization reverse course.

But that glut is something that Twins fans should keep in mind. There are still an awful lot of good free agent fits out there, and now we know that the Twins still have some money to spend. So we can call off the attack dogs for now.

But we're watching. And sharpening up those Stephen Covey quotes. Be afraid.

---------------

I'll be talking Twins with Fanatic Jack on his podcast starting around 9:00 tonight (Wednedsday). Jack is likely to rant about the Twins inaction this offseason, while I get to try to delay the inevitable aneurysm he's eventually going to have. I hope you can tune in.

Wrapped up in Cuddles

I'll admit - I'm a little taken aback.

Twice in the last week I've been accused of being a bobo for Michael Cuddyer. By two different people, in two different places, for two different reasons. Now there are worse guys that you could be a bobo for, to be sure. But I find this shocking.

It wasn't too long ago that I was on the opposite side of the coin, and the people accusing me of loving him were the ones defending him. He was supposed to be a stud who was victimized by his lack of playing time by the evil Ron Gardenhire. I pointed out that his playing time was reduced when he consistently crapped the bed in April. I'm pretty sure the exact quote I used is "sometimes a guy just isn't who you want him to be."

But right now, Cuddyer is awfully close to what I want him to be. He's a power-laden, right-handed power hitter who seems to be a solid teammate. I've been waiting for this guy since 1988, when the Twins traded away Tom Brunansky. Instead I'm supposed to point out his warts? Now that he's actually hitting? OK, I'm game. Let's point them out:

• His range makes him a below average corner outfielder, despite his power arm.
• He's fought injuries throughout his career.
• The Twins minor leagues are crawling with outfield prospects who could eventually replace him.
  
• He's going to soak up almost $19 million worth of payroll over the next two years.

And to these, I'll respond with five points:

1. Nobody ever said he was going to be a great outfielder. That was the knock on him from the day he arrived. It's why he grabbed bench in the final games of the 2002 ALCS. But he uses his arm well, and he's learned to play the wall well. That still makes him below average, but to suggest he's brutal like Vladamir Guerrero or Jermaine Dye is borderline silly.

2. He was injured a LOT early in his career with the Twins. He's also had 623 plate appearances in three of the last four years. The primary problem the missing year was an injured hand, which is hardly a recurring injury like a back or hamstring problem. Don't get me wrong - an injured hand is worth worrying about unless those hands hit 30 home runs the following year. Then I think we can assume they're OK.

3. The outfield prospects that everyone is so excited about are all at least three years away from the majors. None of them has even played in AA ball yet. I'm OK with getting excited about them, but I don't think we need to figure out the Opening Day lineup for 2012 just yet.

4. Cuddyer is a slight bargain at that price, and to confirm it you just need to look at the free agent market this year. Here are the top four outfielders on the market according to the TwinsCentric Offseason GM's Handbook, along with their age and OPS in 2009.

Matt Holliday - 29 - 909 OPS
Jason Bay - 31 - 921 OPS
Bobby Abreu - 35 - 835 OPS
Johnny Damon - 35 - 854 OPS

If you were going to put Cuddyer in that list, he's going to rank 3rd as a 30-year-old who posted a 862 OPS. Now here's the guaranteed money those guys made so far:

Matt Holliday - $120 million/7 years
Jason Bay - $66 million/2 years
Bobby Abreu - $19 million/2 years
Johnny Damon - unsigned, but reportedly turned down $20 million/2 years

It looks to me like Cuddyer could have had a three-year deal, and maybe a four-year deal (he's younger than Bay). And it looks like the minimum he would have commanded in a very tough year for outfielder is $9-10 million. There is almost no chance that a team would be able to sign him at $19 million over two years.

Guys who provide Cuddyer's numbers don't just fall from the sky. Just ask the Braves, who have been shaking the bushes trying to find a right-handed slugger who can play at least a little defense. They aren't out there. Cuddyer couldn't be much farther from "replaceable."

5. The man hit 30 home runs, drove in 94 RBI and hit .276. That makes up for a lot of warts, even if you ignore the fact that he's doing it right-handed in a lineup dominated by left-handed hitters.

You want to maximize Cuddyer's value right now? Just keep him healthy and happy. There is no lineup in which he would be more valuable than the Twins lineup. There is no outfield in which he would be more valuable than the short right field of Target Field.

And maybe there is no better player over whom to act like a bobo. Apparently I'd better hope so.

History Repeating?

The team has had plenty of recent success, but things are looking even brighter. They’re moving out of their putrid dome into their new downtown state-of-the-art ballpark. Situations where they need to trade away players, like they did with their Cy Young ace a couple of years ago, should be a thing of the past. In fact, with the new stadium they’ve already locked up most of their key players to long-term deals. So far, so good.

But there’s a huge concern. The face of the franchise is only under contract for just one more year, and everyone knows the team is going to need to gulp hard, dig deep and offer a record-setting deal to keep him. It has to happen. Nobody can imagine him playing for another team. Nobody can imagine the Mariners without Ken Griffey Jr.

Or did you think I was talking about someone else?

The Mariners did offer that record-setting contract back in 1999. Shortly after Safeco Park replaced the Kingdome, the Mariners offered an 8-year, $148 million contract to Griffey, only to watch him turn it down. It turns out the problem wasn’t the money. Griffey had other concerns.

On October 25th, 1999, pro golfer Payne Stewart died in a bizarre plane crash. He and four others had lost consciousness during the flight due to oxygen deficiency when the plane lost pressurization. The plane eventually ran out of fuel and crashed near Mina, South Dakota. Stewart was a close friend of Griffey’s and the tragedy impacted him deeply.

Griffey informed the Mariners that he would not be signing an extension and desired them to trade him someplace closer to his home in Orlando. Later, he further restricted the teams to which he would accept a trade to Cincinnati, his hometown. That February he was traded for cheaper, younger players and signed a contract for just $116 million, $30 million less than what he had been offered by Seattle.

The cautionary tale is full of lessons that one could take to heart if one wishes. New stadiums don’t guarantee anything. Delays can cause unforeseen circumstances to change attitudes. Money isn’t the only player's whim a club must satisfy. And players and teams, whose identities seem intertwined, don’t always work things out the way they probably should.

But there is one final lesson that may be more heartening to Twins fans.

It turns out the Mariners found something else to do with that money. They went on a free agent spending spree that included signing closer Jose Mesa (2 years/$6.8 million), John Olerud (3/$20M) and Aaron Sele (2/$14.5M). But the defining move happened the next year when they reached across the Pacific and paid $13 million to Ichiro Suzuki’s Japanese club just to negotiate with him. On top of that they paid him $14 million over his first three years.

And the Mariners, who had averaged 81 wins in Griffey’s last four years with the team, averaged 98(!) wins in the four years after he left. Without Griffey (and Alex Rodriguez, who would leave after the 2000 season) the Mariners made it to the American League Championship Series in 2000 and 2001.

---------------

FYI - I'll be on Travis Talks Podcast talking about the offseason at 9:00 on Monday night. I hope you can tune in or stop by is you have anything you want to talk about. Also, I would highly encourage you to join me on Twitter too. I'm doing a lot more posting there than I am here lately.

On Waiting, the EBay Paradox and Dominos

There's usually a lot of offseason waiting that goes on between XMas and New Year's Day, and that's a shame, because somebody is going to end up dead. Or at least that's what I could conclude based on random outbursts in the #Twins Twittersphere. Waiting might literally kill some people.

This story is why there has been so much waiting. And why we might have a lot more activity real soon.

I can understand the frustration. To be totally honest, the Twins have brought this attitude on themselves. Twins fans associate late season signings with names like Tony Batista and Sidney Ponson, and are understandably cynical about the process. And so the contrasting logic suggests that signing someone RIGHT NOW virtually assures the Twins of ending up with a very attractive player at either second or third base.

The problem is the ebay paradox. You know how you go out to ebay to buy that really slow scrolling scene Miller Lite beer sign that you spent, oh, roughly 3/4 or your college senior year staring at in the campus bar? It's there, it's for sale, the auction closes a week from Monday, and you can maybe get it for really cheap? Or, you could click on that "Buy It Now!" icon and pay roughly 50% more but be absolutely sure you get it?

Of course you do. Who hasn't tried to buy a really slow scrolling scene Miller Lite beer sign?

You have two choices in this scenario. You can either "Buy It Now!" and likely overpay. Or you can wait until 1 minute before the auction closes and put in your high bid. The one thing you don't want do is bid on it now. All that does is tell other buyers that you're out there, you're bidding, and they should probably raise their bids appropriately.

And like the really slow scrolling scene Miller Lite beer sign (And I mean REALLY SLOW. So slow you didn't even notice it was moving until your junior year.) free agents aren't cans on a shelf that Bill Smith before the blizzard hits. Most free agents don't sign until the more desirable player in front of them signs, knowing that the teams that miss out on the superior player will then enter the bidding for him. And, if you haven't noticed, the top two hitters on the market haven't signed yet.

Those guys would be Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, who reportedly have very good, but not exceptional, offers on the table from the Mets and Cardinals respectively. What neither has, but both would love, is a bidding war. And there are two very good reasons they are waiting for that.

The first reason is that there are a lot of teams that just don't have much money to spend this year. The free agents are waiting for them to find some cash, and the teams have been doing their best to oblige:

• The Tigers traded away Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson, two really good, affordable, and young players, just to reduce payroll this year.
• The Reds just extended 33-year-old Scott Rolen's contract two years, which is odd consdering he may well need a walker by then. But by doing so, they were able to reduce his salary THIS year, reducing their payroll by a few million dollars.
• The Dodgers traded away Juan Pierre and $10 million to the White Sox so they could save just $3 million this year.
• And earlier this week, the Braves traded away Javier Vazquez, (and his $11.5 million salary) to the Yankees for pennies on the dollar.
• Meanwhile, the Marlins are reportedly shopping Dan Uggla, a legitimate second base slugger, so they can reduce payroll.

So the free agents are waiting for teams to figure out a way to come up with some money so the market loosens a bit.

The second reason that the big names are waiting is because the two teams that traditionally lead the league in spending have been uncharacteristically quiet. The Red Sox made an offer to left fielder Bay early, but pulled it back when they signed Mike Cameron. However, Cameron can also play center field, and rumors abound that Red Sox center fielder Jacob Ellsbury is being shopped around for a big infield bat, like Adrian Gonzalez. If the Red Sox trade Ellsbury (or think they would), they could easily re-enter the bidding for Bay or Holliday. In fact, reports tonight suggest they might be doing just that.

And the Yankees, who traded for Granderson earlier, might also be entering the market. They traded away their left fielder Melky Cabrera in the Vazquez deal. While they are publicly saying they only have $4 million to spend on an outfielder, it would be a first if the Yankees showed any kind of restraint financially.

If either the Red Sox or Yankees get interested in Bay or Holliday, the players could see their offers increase considerably, and the dominos could start to fall. If the Yankees sign Holliday, perhaps the Cardinals make an offer to Bay. If either the Mets or Cardinals are left in the cold, then they make on offer to Mark Derosa. If Derosa goes with one of them, them maybe the Giants, who made a 2-year offer to Derosa, get involved with Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson.

And so while the Twins can make fair offers now to Lopez, Derosa or Hudson, it would be borderline shocking if any of them would accept an offer now. They want as many teams in on the bidding as they can get, and those teams are waiting on bigger names right now. So the Twins have a choice. They can either "Buy It Now!" and overpay, or they can wait until the player is ready to make his choice and submit their highest bid. What DOESN'T make sense is to give a fair offer now, which will just be announced to other interested parties to drive up the price.

So the good news is that the Twins are likely playing this the right way. The bad news is that they aren't guaranteed to get anyone. And in fact, they might not really be interested in getting anyone. With as close as Smith plays things to the vest, he certainly hasn't indicated that another decent signing is on the way. Of course, he also hasn't announced that the Twins are done, either.

Either way, it's starting to feel like the big money is making a decision and the dominos are starting to fall. The results might not ultimately be what we want, but at least the waiting shouldn't kill anyone.

What is Kenny Williams Up To?

On August 10th of this year, the White Sox acquired outfielder Alex Rios, who had hit .291 with 15 HR and 32 SB the year before, from Toronto for absolutely nothing. They got this bargain by accompanying Rios would be the long-term contract he signed with the Blue Jays, which would pay him $59 million over the next five years.

It was the second big ticket acquisition that GM Kenny Williams had made in a month's time. The first had happened on July 31st at the trade deadline when he had traded prospects for NL Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, who came with a $52 million deal over the next three years. The deals also added approximately $4 million to a payroll that had started the season around $96 million. So it wasn't too shocking that once the White Sox faded from the pennant race they quickly traded away Jim Thome ($13M salary in 2009) and Jose Contreras ($10M). Doing so provided some relief for the previous buying spree.

But as the White Sox look towards 2010 those big salaries are on still going to be on the books, and tying up almost $25 million. Since the White Sox won the World Series in 2005, their total payroll has hovered around $100 million:

Yr - $(M)
2009 - 96.1
2008 - 121.2
2007 - 108.7
2006 - 102.8
2005 - 75.2
2004 - 65.2

As Williams looked at the committed money to contracts and various arbitration awards, $90 million was already spoken for, and there were plenty of holes to fill. For starters, that money didn't include the optional $12 million salary that the White Sox could pay Jermaine Dye. They chose not to, so there was a spot in right field. There had also been a giant sucking sound at second base throughout 2009.

A few weeks later those gaps are filled and three additional veteran backups are on the roster, all at a bargain price of $12 million. First the White Sox acquired Mark Teahan from the Royals, who were going to non-tender him. The White Sox instead signed him to an affordable three-year, $14 million deal and gave him the 3rd base job (and moved Gordon Beckham to second base). Teahan's career OPS is 750 and that's close to the average third baseman in the majors. Plus, it moved Beckham to a position where he can be a difference maker.

Then Williams signed a couple of veteran bench bats, gettting Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones for a couple million dollars plus some incentive clauses. It's doubtful either will play full time, but it gives manager Ozzie Guillen some options in case shorstop Alexei Ramirez remains clueless or left fielder Carlos Quentin is hurt again.

Yesterday the White Sox filled their other vacancy by acquiring outfielder Juan Pierre from the Dodgers for a couple of pitching prospects. The genius in the deal isn't Pierre's contribution. It's the Dodgers' contribution to Pierre's enormous salary. Of the $18.5 million that are owed him over the next two years, the White Sox only need to pay $8 million of it, and only $3 million this year.

And Pierre is a decent fit. He plays center field well and gives them a leadoff hitter that isn't Scott Podsednick, with whom the White Sox limped through last season. The unfortunate result is that it moves Rios to right field where he isn't nearly as valuable, but at least it really upgrades the outfield defense from what the White Sox had last year. And, looking at the free agent outfielder market, it sure isn't clear that the Sox were going to do any better for the money.

One other move raises the question whether Williams is done. Last week he signed reliever (and former closer) JJ Putz to a $3 million contract. That's significant because the White Sox current closer Bobby Jenks is up for arbitration, and could command a salary of $7-9 million. Trading him would both cut payroll and recoup some prospects from the bevy that the White Sox traded away for Peavy, Teahan and Pierre. So is Putz insurance or a replacement?

As things sit now, the total payroll (assuming Jenks gets about $8 million) is around $102 million. It's not clear if that's high, low or just right. And things look shaky on the farm, with all the young talent the Sox have traded away to extend their competetiveness. But on the field, the White Sox look like a complete team. And if Peavy, Rios and Quenting can bounce back, they should be a formidable opponent in 2010.