There's a Stat for That: UZR

There is a question that TwinsCentric didn’t answer, or even raise. We’ll raise it today. Maybe we’ll answer it tomorrow.

One thing we tried to do within the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook is pay increased attention to defense. For instance, I mentioned it in the first half of this review of Orlando Cabrera:

Last year at this time, Orlando Cabrera had plenty of reason to be hopeful about his impending free agency. He was a .300 hitter, a veteran shortstop, and had been a key component to a number of playoff teams over the latter half of the decade. He’d been so good that he easily found himself listed as a ‘Type A’ player by Elias in their year-end rankings.

That last fact turned ugly in a hurry. The White Sox offered Cabrera arbitration when neither side wanted him to return there. Since Cabrera turned down the arbitration and was an ‘A’ player, any team signing him would need to forfeit a first-round draft pick to the White Sox. And with that additional (and artificial) cost, the market for Cabrera dried up like a Sham-wow.

He finally signed with the Athletics in March, but he could only procure a one-year deal for $4 million, essentially signing a “make-good” contract after he had already made good. But give him and his agent credit for having learned their lesson. They reportedly made sure the new contract specified that whichever team has him can’t offer him arbitration if he’s a Type A free agent again.

It looks like he’ll be just that. Alas, the Twins won’t be offering him arbitration, so he might get a better deal despite having a worse year. His batting average and OPS fell to .284 and 705 respectively, but his defense was a bigger concern. The 34-year-old isn’t getting to groundballs the way he used to, and defensive metrics like a UZR of -14.9 confirm that.

(And yes, you can download that, along with 1/3 of the Handbook, absolutely free at TwinsCentric.com. Thanks for asking!)

You’ll notice in that last paragraph that we use UZR or Ultimate Zone Rating. It’s cited a few times in the Handbook, and we referenced it behind the scenes multiple times. It’s become a standard defensive metric, but I worry a little that it’s popularity stems mostly from being readily available at FanGraphs.com.

So I was excited to stumble across this interview with the developer of UZR, Mitchel Lichtman at BaseballDailyDigest.com, conducted by Joel Hamrahi. (Who, apropos of nothing, calls the Handbook “every baseball fan’s dream.” But I digress.) So let’s see how this thing works.

UZR starts with a map of the field that divides it into 22 slices and then divides those up into distances of 30-35 feet. (Just so you can picture it, I threw together the dreadful little drawing on the left.) For each of those spots they know from lots of major league data what percentage of the time a ball is turned into outs.

But it doesn’t stop there. Each of those probabilities are broken down into more granular probabilities based on further conditions. Those other conditions are important, so he specifies them. They are:

- Type, which I think he means as type of hit, but the values are hard, medium, and soft
- handedness of the batter, because it influences positioning and he claims it influences the speed, which I don’t quite understand
- game situation, meaning the baserunners and outs, because is also influences positioning
- ground ball/fly ball ratio of the pitcher, which again he says influences the speed

So, basically you have a huge table that has location and the rest of these conditions as columns, and for every possible combination of those, it has the percentage of time a ball is turned into an out by each fielder.

Based on those percentages, a fielder gets or loses varying amounts of credit for their performance. For instance, if Jermaine Dye catches a ball that 90% of right fielders catch, he gets credit for 10% of an out. If he misses a ball that 60% of right fielders catch, he loses 60% of an out.

Then UZR turns those plays into runs using a very high level metric. It counts an out as .28 runs, an infield hit as .5 runs and an outfield hit as .6 runs. Since every ball is one or the other, I’m assuming that a play by an infielder credits or subrtracts .78 runs, and an outfielders play counts as .88 runs. So I think that if we go back to our outfielder who got credit for 10% of a catch, he gains .088 runs for that catch.

Lichtman goes into more detail, and I think a few of them are important. First, he rightly points out that in his system “fielder positioning is inherent in the results.” He only tracks flyballs to outfielders and groundballs to infielders, so an outfielder who misplays ground balls isn’t penalized. He also adjusts the final numbers based on the outfielders throws. He adjusts for park factors. And finally, an outfielder is never penalized if a gap hit is caught by another outfielder, but is if it is a hit.

That final point is an important one to me, because all this research was driven by a simple question – why is Denard Span listed as such a poor defender by UZR? That’s a topic we didn’t tackle, or even raise, in the Handbook. I hope to jump into some possible explanations tomorrow.

Geeking Out: The #2 Batter

As the Voice of Reason™ and I are kicking back and watching her Phils tonight, I notice #2 Shane Victorino's stats: .292/.358/.445. And I thought - now there is a guy Parker would like.

Because in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, Parker wrote a great essay on the importance of the Twins finding a solid #2 hitter, called Never Break the Chain. It starts like this:

In 1986, Bill James constructed a poignant analysis on lineup composition and revealed that the total runs scored and second spot in the batting order had the strongest correlation among any player in the lineup — more than leadoff, third or cleanup. Mr. James noted in his 1986 Baseball Abstract that “many managers tend to waste the second spot in the order by putting somebody there who isn’t one of the better hitters on the team...Too many managers will say ‘bat control’ as if these words were a magic wand, and place some .260 hitter with a secondary average of .150 batting second…”

Someday I want to compose a poignant analysis. Anyway, Parker's essay then covers the Twins woes at the second spot in the order and options they might have this offseason. To get a better sense of the essay, you can download the free 1/3 book at TwinsCentric.com

I wondered what trait of the second batter was most important? On-base percentage makes sense, but so does batting average. Or maybe it's a patience-power mix, like OPS? So I ran a quick correlation between runs scored by teams and the stats their #2 hitter put up. The higher the number, the higher the correlation. Here are the results:

OBP - 0.526
OPS - 0.523
BA - 0.469
SLG - 0.446

It looks like on-base percentage or OPS are a little more important than batting average. That's not exactly ground-breaking, but it's good to know. Because I had also copied all the other stats for #2 hitters, I ran correlations on them too. Here they are:

R - 0.680
H - 0.532
RBI - 0.525
TB - 0.508
AB - 0.451
HR - 0.255
2B - 0.247
GP - 0.158
3B - -0.037

Heh. Shocking. Runs is the most important. So a team that scores a lot tends to have a #2 hitter that racks up a lot of runs. Whoulda thunk?

Still, it's nice to clarify a little what we're looking for from the #2 hitter. As we might suspect, we want them to set the table.

If anyone has any other correlations that they would like to see, make sure to enter them into the comments section. Thanks.

J. J. Hardy

Supply and demand is a bear. Or at least I suspect it it in this case.

You're going to hear his name a lot. In fact, you probably already have. Every offseason there is one name that rises above the others as a trade target. It's a little silly to speculate who that's going to be this offseason, because the Twins are gathering and planning their offseason priorities. this week. But the early leader is Hardy.

On the left is his writeup in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. I didn't write it (I think Nick Nelson did) but I like it because it gives a thumbnail sketch of the important points. Namely:

1) Hardy is young and supposedly very good both offensively and defensively
2) He's available because the Brewers have a decent replacement and because he had a bad year in 2009
3) The Brewers would probably require pitching in return.

By the say, if you would like a dozen or so more thumbnail sketches of trade targets, stop by at check out the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. You can download 1/3 of it for free! Even Bill Bavasi would recognize that as a great deal.

It's a good overview, but we have a little more room here, so let's break it down a bit.

He is (or at least was) very good both offensively and defensively. Defensively he has graded above average every year he was in the majors, and his minor league reviews mention that it's his defense that will compensate for his bat if he's to have a major league career. Even last year, when he struggled with back problems, his defense suffered a little, but was still above average.

Offensively he was worth drooling over in 2007 and 2008, averaging a .280 batting average with 25 home runs and an OPS around 800. Just to put that OPS in context, Marco Scutaro, who will probably be the highest paid shortstop in this year's free agent market, posted an OPS of 788.

If that was the full story, then it's obvious he's exactly what the Twins need. Of course, if that was the full story, he wouldn't be available. And if he was, he certainly wouldn't be affordable.

Last year was a nightmare for Hardy, medically, athletically and ultimately financially. He had a fantastic spring training, but struggled for most of April before revealing he was having back problems. It turns out those back problems are something that he had been dealing with for years. In fact, it's often overlooked that he had some real injury issues early in his career, missing most of 2004 and 2006 with ankle and shoulder problems.

He surged early in May, and his back problems reappeared in late May. He struggled the rest of the year, posting a 229 batting average and a 659 OPS, about 50 points lower than Orlando Cabrera. The season ended especially disastrously (and possibly litigiously) when he was sent down to AAA in August. That 3-week stint in Nashville is going to put off his free agency a full year, so he'll be a free agent after 2011.

The Brewers are looking for pitching in return, but there was a lot of debate about how much pitching. Others think and offer of Glen Perkins and a high prospect might get the deal done. After all, he struggled last year, he's due at least $4 million this year, and he'll be a free agent after 2011.

I expect it would take more, and it would take more of exactly what the Twins don't have - veteran pitching. The Brewers don't want "kind of" pitchers. They are built to win now, and they want veteran pitchers. The ideal fit for the Brewers would be Nick Blackburn, and given the starting pitching depth (or lack thereof) the Twins have, I can't imagine that happening. Nor would I advocate it.

The problem is that even with all his issues, Hardy is still young, solid defensively, affordable and capable of being a stud offensively. There are a LOT of teams interested in someone like that at shortstop. The Red Sox have been rumored to be interested. He would be a great fit on the Cardinals. The Jays would have a lot of interest if they don't re-sign Scutaro. The Tigers might if they lose Placido Polanco. Ditto Astros and Miguel Tejada. You can count on the Padres, Reds, Cubs and Orioles possible also being interested.

The name is great, and worth talking about. He's appropriately placed near the top of the list of trade targets. But that's also what makes it so hard to get him. Supply and demand is a bear.

Pitching Around Manny

You could walk Manny here, but the last thing you want to do is put the winning run on base....

As I watched last night's game, with the Phillies repeatedly facing Manny Ramirez in the worst possible positions, I had to wonder - why aren't they pitching to him the way the Yankees pitched to Joe Mauer? That is - basically avoid him. Be happy with walking him. And the answer repeatedly was:

the last thing you want to do is put the winning run on base....

I hear that. Matt Kemp is no slouch. But I wondered, perhaps inanely, just what was the best plan from a purely mathematical standpoint. At what point, when holding a one-run lead, does adding another baserunner change the "expected runs" for an inning from under one run to over one run?

And since I hadn't published anything yesterday, and didn't have any better ideas, I thought I'd punish you folks with the results.

So here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna start with Palmer and Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix. (Easy does it. It's math, but don't freak out. I'll explain it, I promise. Just stick with me through the next paragraph.) Then we'll see at what point adding a runner increases the expected runs from less than one to more than one. And we'll see if it jives with the common knowledge that you don't want to put the winning run on base.

So first, what is Palmer and Thorn's Run Expectancy Matrix? It's simple. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. It looks like this:

OUTS	None	1st	2nd	3rd	1st & 2nd	1st & 3rd	2nd & 3rd	Full
0 Outs	0.454	0.783	1.068	1.277	1.38	1.639	1.946	2.254
1 Out	0.249	0.478	0.699	0.897	0.888	1.088	1.371	1.546
2 Outs	0.095	0.209	0.348	0.382	0.457	0.494	0.661	0.798

How does it work? Let's do an example. See that number 1.068 in the first row? That means that in innings that had a runner on 2nd base (the column) and zero outs (the row) the team (over 70 years of studying baseball) averaged scoring 1.068 runs that inning.

Now, it's important to understand that this matrx doesn't know who is pitching or who is batting next. It's essentially nothing more than a baseline. But if you understand that, you can use this little chart for all kinds of stuff. And I want to know at what point walking a player puts the expected runs over the value of 1. Here's what is say:

With 0 outs - You don't want to walk a batter when you only have a guy on first base. Doing so increases the expected runs from .783 to 1.38. In any other situation, you're already expecting to give up over one run. So you're OK, provide you don't force an existing runner to the next base. That seems to follow common baseball wisdom.

With 1 out - You don't want to walk a runner if there is someone on third base. (But it's OK if there is a runner on 1st or 2nd base, strangely enough.) You also don't want to walk a runner to load the bases if there are only runners on first and second. This is NOT baseball wisdom, and points out how silly this exercise might be, in my opinion.

With 2 out - You walk the batter and you don't much care what else the situation is, provided you don't walk in a run. The expected runs never get over one run, unless you're silly enough to walk a run in and have exactly the same situation with the next batter.

So the lesson is that the prevailing wisdom isn't totally correct.
- If there are no outs, walk the guy provided you're not moving another into scoring position.
- If there is one out, don't walk a guy to put runners on the corners. That seems totally counter-intuitive, since it also sets up the double-play. But there it is.
- If there are two outs, walk the guy. Tempting fate isn't a bad option. Especially if the next batter is Jason Kubel.

(I keeeeed. I keeeeeed, Jason. I make funny.)

Have a good weekend folks. See you Monday.

There's a Stat for That: Adjusted Runs Prevented

It's hard to argue for or against relievers based on statistics. Relievers can give up other pitcher's runs without their own ERA taking a hit. Hits, walks and strikeouts don't necessarily depict how successful a player was. And of course saves are borderline silly.

What would really be valuable would be a stat that somehow gave credit for stranding inherited runners, but cost a reliever when he got the team into a jam.

Turns out, there's a stat for that. It's called Adjusted Runs Prevented, or ARP.

I've become hesitant to introduce any new stats, because this is when the vast majority of eyes glaze over. I'm going to try it anyway with ARP, because it's just so darn simple. It's also ultimately very, very powerful when talking about relievers. But first, the simple:

ARP = expected runs when a reliever enters a game - expected runs when he left the game.

So say a reliever comes in with runners on the corners and no outs. From studying tens of thousands of previous MLB innings, we know, on average, how many runs will score that inning. It's about 1.9. So if the reliever strands those runners, he gets +1.9 ARP. If he gets out of the inning with just one run scoring, he gets +.9. If two runs score, he gave up more runs then the average, so his ARP is -.1.

Or say a reliever comes in to pitch the ninth inning. The average runs scored in an inning are .56. So if he pitches a perfect ninth, he gets +.56 ARP. And if he gives up a 2-run home run to Alex Rodriguez (for example) his ARP would be -1.44.

If you have some more questions about ARP, leave them in the comments section. We can do some more complicated examples there if you like.

Anyway, ARP is exactly what it is named; it is how many runs a reliever prevented. And those runs aren't random - they're the average runs from decades of major league games. Finally, there is no goofy extra credit for pitching late innings - really valuable middle relievers or setup men often lead the league in ARP. It is an EXCELLENT statistic for showing which relievers have had the best year. It's a MVP stat for relievers.

So who were the top relievers this year? Of the 729 relievers tracked by Baseball Prospectus, here's the top five:
Andrew Bailey (OAK) +29
Michael Wurtz (OAK) +28.3
Joe Nathan (MIN) +28
Matt Guerrier (MIN) +26.8
Mariano Rivera (NYY) +25.8

That third name might surprise some Twins fans. Turns out Joe Nathan had a hell of a year. Remember, he lost ARP runs in those games where he collapsed, but overall he was extremely effective. You can't find three guys in the majors that were more effective than him.

What's more, this was not a one-year thing. Nathan ranked #7 in overall ARP last year. By the way, there was only one other guy who was in the top 10 both years. It's Mariano Rivera.

But it's also not just a two-year thing. Because in 2007 Nathan was #8. Rivera finished 21st that year. And it keeps going...
In 2006, Nathan was #6 and Rivera was #8
In 2005, Nathan was #15 and Rivera was #2.
In 2004, Nathan was #8 and Rivera was #6.

As you go through this list, year by year, there are two names that are on the list over and over - Nathan and Rivera. Those two, and ONLY those two, have been the model of consistency, effectiveness and health since Nathan joined the Twins in 2004.

Now, this doesn't mean that Nathan can't be traded. For the right package of players, just about nobody on the Twins should be untouchable.

But to say that Nathan is slipping, or nearly finished, is almost indefensible. His handful of failures have been more memorable because of when they happened and who they happened against, but objectively they barely dent the successes he had.

However, there is something that is even more indefensible, and that is to say that he can be easily replaced. Or even replaced at all:
- Matt Guerrier? Great this year. But his ARP last year was negative.
- Jose Mijares? His ARP was 12.8, less than half of Nathan's.
- Pat Neshek? Um, you might want to look at Francisco Liriano this year before you commit to someone coming off of Tommy John surgery?
- And the most popular - someone else? After all, Nathan wasn't anything special when we got him...

Wrong again. Nathan was already on that list of ARP leaders back when he was throwing middle relief for the Giants, ranking 24th out of 676 relievers in 2003. He was just two slots below Francisco Rodriguez that year, and that was when KRod was exploding onto the scene.

The doubters can bitch about the stat, but they're going to need bring something tangible to the table besides a couple of bad nights. The dreamers can can talk about a trade, but they're going to need to bring some realistic player packages. And both of them are going to need to bring a replacement for someone who is arguably the second best relief pitcher of this decade.

And that includes 2009.

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Late addition: For those of you saying we should trade Nathan for "the right package", I really would like to hear what you consider the right package to be in the comments section. Give me teams and names that you think are realistic and would improve the team. Thanks!

Twins Payroll 2010

To me, today is really the first day of the offseason. Yesterday, the day after the last game of the season, is traditionally a day of mourning. But it's also the day that the beat writers talk to the manager. And so today they give us their thoughts on what the Twins will be doing this offseason.

But to be candid, I mostly ignore what I read. I have for years, ever since I read in several sources that Cristian Guzman would re-sign with the Twins. A short look at the payroll situation would tell anyone that cared to look that it was never going to happen. But nobody cared to look. They cared to talk to the manager. And he liked Guzman.

That's one of the reasons I've often run a payroll breakdown for the Twins in the upcoming season around this time. The Yankees series should have driven the point home to anyone that cares to pay attention - payroll is critically important. More important than most want to admit.

How important? Well, consider how you evaluate how a team might do in the upcoming season. First, you evaluate how they did in the previous season. Then you take a look at the players they added or subtracted, or that player you think will improve or decline. So you start with a baseline (the team's previous record) and add or subtract based on their moves.

But it turns out that you've chosen the wrong baseline. If, rather than pay attention to the team's record, you paid attention to their payroll, you would have a better baseline. Statistically, it is a better indicator than a team's record as to how they will do. That's how important it is.

(And to answer the question of the sabremetrically inclined gentleman in the back who is eagerly raising his hand ... No, I haven't compared the correlation coefficient to the run differential. But I can tell you it's in the ballpark. We'll try to get to that sometime this offseason.)

Anyway, payroll counts, whether you want to believe it or not. It has, in the past, been a severe limiting factor for the Twins. That's why I wrote up a four-page analysis of the Twins payroll situation in 2010, 2011 and 2012 for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. I and three other hard-working bloggers would sure appreciate it if you would click over and buy it to support us.

But I'm going to copy a bunch of it into today's entry, free of charge, for a simple reason - because it's ALREADY available free of charge. You can request a 61-page sample that is basically 1/3 of the whole book, absolutely free, just by clicking here. And it includes most of what is below.

Why are we doing that? I can't speak for Seth, Nick or Parker, but I'm doing it because I'm tired of the offseason stories being driven by irrelevancies, like whether or not the manager likes Guzman, or happened to whisper some kind words to Alexi Casilla. The latter isn't going to determine whether the Twins go out and sign a second baseman. It's far more relevant whether there are any decent, affordable second basemen on the market this year. And it turns out there are.

So below you'll find the payroll situation for the Twins in 2010, and you'll find a lot of financial wiggle room. At the very bottom I'll also talk briefly about something that ISN'T in the Handbook, but probably should have been.

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Here’s the part of your job you least look forward to: payroll.

Payroll is a limitation for all major league teams, but for the last couple of decades, the Twins have been limited to it more than most. There has been plenty of speculation that could or should change with the opening of Target Field in 2010, but the Twins haven’t announced the level of their commitment to salaries just yet.

That doesn’t mean we can’t give you a guess, especially given that we know how much has been spent the rest of this decade. The chart on the right is the club’s Opening Day salaries as computed by USA Today. We should note that it does NOT include signing bonuses, so that number for 2008 should actually be closer to $66 million due to $8.75 million in signing bonuses paid to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer.

Still, you’ll notice that the Twins payroll has basically leveled off since the announcement of the new taxpayer-subsidized ballpark. And while MLB (and the rest of the world) has faced a recession during that time, we haven’t seen similar stagnation in other teams’ payrolls. Overall, major league payroll climbed 7% across the board over those two years. If the Twins payroll climbed a similar amount, it would be closer to $77 million this year, $12 million higher than it actually was.

So, given that level, we’ll add a 5% increase for 2010 and another $15 million to $20 million bump from the new stadium. Add all that up and you have 95 to $100 million to spend.

Well, not to spend, exactly. Most of that is already spoken for by previous commitments. You have some guaranteed salaries with existing players, and there are more players that you’re going to want to keep while you still control their salaries. On your left, you can see how things are set up, and the salaries of some other Twins farmhands below.

Some assumptions were made to simplify things, so let’s spell them out in case you want to make some changes.

LF/4th OF – Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young will both be eligible for their first year of arbitration, meaning they’re relative bargains, so they’re on the roster for now. I put Young in LF since he’s been there most of Sept, but feel free to move them around.

IF – Nick Punto’s salary is guaranteed, Alexi Casilla is out of options, and Brendan Harris will be eligible for arbitration and end up with a salary somewhere around $1 million. It’s possible you don’t offer him arbitration, but that also seems like a reasonable price for a utility infielder that provides offensive flexibility. Of course, with two infield bench spots, one of the three probably needs to be starting at a middle infield spot. I chose Punto. You’ll need to get rid of one of them to move him to the bench.

SP - In the rotation, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey seem like locks to return, and Kevin Duensing has likely earned his spot. I could’ve also put Francisco Liriano in there, but I put him in the bullpen so you had a rotation spot for a veteran if you would like. It also moved Glen Perkins off the roster completely, so he’s on the following table, with other bench names that you can use if you like.

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The story goes on to talk about the 2011 and 2012 commitments, but I want to get to a different point. One question I've received since I wrote this is how confident I am in the $15-20 million bump in payroll from the new field. The truth is that is was an off-the-cuff estimate, with almost no realy analysis behind it. So let's add that now....

A few months ago, we looked at a document from the Metropolitan Sports Commission which suggested the Twins cleared approximately $6 million in concessions and $40 million in ticket revenues in 2007 when their attendance was 2.2 million. Just straightlining that to a 3 million attendance figure adds another $16 million in revenue. If we add another 10% to that number (a reasonable expectation over the last three years) it adds another $7 million. That's a $23 million bump in revenue.

I think we can safely assume that with suites, etc., that number could go a LOT higher. But even if it doesn't, and even if payroll runs at just over 50% or overall revenue, we're talking about a $12 million bump.

Now, I should mention, I don't know enough about the other side of the ledger. I don't know how much the Twins are paying to lease the new ballpark, or how that compares to their lease of the Metrodome. Of course, I also don't know how much their receiving for the various sponsorships it's developed, like the "Target Fields" moniker or the recent deal with Treasure Island.

But a $10-$15 million bump doesn't seem unreasonable. If anything, I'd expect it to be higher.

The Hurting

What hurts most is that this series could've been won. Instead, it was lost.

All of the lopsided differences, all the salaries, all the statistics, all the intangibles - all of it could have meant nothing. This could have been a reminder of how little we know, of the wonder that can be contained in a single game, of how inequalities can be overcome.

When I see a matchup like this last series, I think of an interview I conducted with Terry Ryan five or so years ago. I was quantifying some players and at some point, he felt the need to point out "The game is a GAME." He wasn't trying to emphasize that it was unimportant. He was pointing out that there are a million different ways to win a game. Some play it one way, and some play it a different way.

The Twins tried to play this series by leaning heavily on their pitching and stringing together hits. They did so because they just didn't have enough power to do it any other way. Joe Mauer was being pitched around, Justin Morneau was out (as was Joe Crede), and Jason Kubel might as well have been blindfolded.

They also, by the way, didn't have the speed, or at least don't know how to use it. Denard Span and Nick Punto were both decent threats, and Orlando Cabrera showed he can still guile his way around the bases a bit, but that's where it ends. One could argue that Carlos Gomez should've been in the lineup more, but anyone stating that needs to be sentenced to actually watching Gomez.

Gomez, of course, was responsible for a couple of miscues over the weekend, as were several other Twins. Any number of things could have gone a little differently - umpire calls, baserunning blunders, laughable at-bats and (maybe above all) reliever implosions. If any number of them goes some other way, everything is different.

That's the problem with playing the way the Twins were forced to play this series - there is so little margin for error. Those rallies and innings that you're trying to chain together are only as strong as the weakest link. And yet, two of the three games were there for the taking, like an umpire sitting ten feet from a fair ball. They were RIGHT THERE. Sometimes several times.

That's what hurts the most. Not that the Twins were a better team. I think by almost any objective measure, they weren't. But they still could have won this damn thing. Instead, they lost it.

Offseason
I've got a whole list of things to talk about this offseason. For those Phils fans out there who are hoping this site will once again become the Phils Geek site, I think you'll be disappointed, though The Voice of Reason™ and I will certainly be watching those games. But I just anticipate too much Twins stuff to talk about this offseason.

Don't believe me? Well, you can start with 137 pages of offseason analysis, if you like. That's how long the new TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook is, and you can download it now at TwinsCentric.com. I'll talk more about it tomorrow when we officially release it and dive into the offseason, but if you can't wait to turn the page (and who could possibly blame you?) click on over there and check it out.

Who are the "Yankees"?

Teams that play in the postseason are rarely in the same division. This can cause a problem for fans, because they aren't as familiar with teams that they only see once or twice per year. That is likely the case this week for Twins fans, as the hometown nine faces an obscure team from over a thousand miles away with a strange name - the "Yankees."

The Yankees are from our nation's biggest city and have a rather rich baseball history, once boasting the major league's career home run hitter. They are very popular out east, and even nationwide among people with low opinions of themselves. You will often hear these folks talk about their Yankees to boost their own low self-esteem. That can be especially true when one's career has stagnated at a tertiary sports network, such as TBS.

But one gains little real information from such ramblings, so I thought it might be a good idea to present a primer of what we can expect to see when the Twins face them this weekend.

The Lineup
The strength of the Yankees is in their offense, and has been for the entire decade. Actually, that's not quite true. The real strength of the Yankees is in having a 100+ year history in the richest city on earth. But this most clearly manifests itself in their lineup. They ranked ranked first overall in runs scored and they ranked first overall in OPS.

But what's impressive about this lineup is how deep it is. There just aren't many weaknesses. For instance, versus the right-handers the Yankees ranked first overall in OPS. And the also ranked first overall versus left-handers.

And that balance isn't just at a high level - it goes down to the individuals. It used to be that you could, in late innings, mix-and-match a little to get the upper hand. For instance, the Twins almost always carried an extra southpaw when they played the Yankees because Jason Giambi would struggle against left-handers.

That's not the case anymore. Up and down the lineup there is no magic formula for getting every other guy out. Now you need to look at individual types of pitches. Hideki Matsui is really fooled by changeups. Mark Teixeira doesn't hit curveballs. Nick Swisher has trouble against anything offspeed.

In other words, this isn't a lineup you manage. This is a lineup you fight your way through, and you do it with a healthy dose of courage (to throw the offspeed stuff) and luck (to throw anything else). They are deep through the #8 hitter when Jorge Posada is catching, and through #7 when he's not.

The Pitching
People will say, however, that the offense has been a constant. Instead, this year, the pitching is the difference. That might be true, but that doesn't mean it's world class. Overall, it's been about average. The team sported a 4.26 ERA this year which ranked 12th in the majors. In terms of runs against, the Yankees ranked 14th, giving up just twelve fewer runs than the Twins staff. And we worried about the Twins staff all year.

For this weekend, we don't care so much about the overall staff. We mostly care about the next two starting pitchers, AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte.

Burnett has been quite the topic in New York this year. They signed him for $82.5 million, guaranteeing five years to a 32-year-old who has battled injuries his whole career. But he stayed healthy this year, and to the Yankees credit, they've been very careful about extending him past 100-110 pitches in his starts. Most of his starts have gone well, but he's mixed in enough stinkers to leave his ERA at 4.04.

A lot of those clunkers came at the end of August and the beginning of September, which naturally caused a little insomnia in the city that never sleeps, seeing as they were counting on him for the playoffs. But his last really crummy start was September 12th, and he's been very good since.

He does, however, give up baserunners, because he walks quite a few and still gives up hits. I expected to find out that his personal catcher, Jose Molina, who will be starting tonight, would limit the damage those runners can do on the basepaths. But he isn't any better about stopping a running game than Posada, whose defense looked laughable in Game 1. Molina has thrown out just nine of 32 stolen base attempts.

The Twins ran a little in Game 1. It might behoove them to really focus on it in Game 2. It looks like a weakness on a Yankees team that doesn't have many. And candidly, the Twins don't have that much to lose by throwing caution to the wind.

The cliche about Pettite is that he gets a lot better as the season goes on, and sure enough his ERA is 3.30 after the all-star break, as opposed to 4.85 before. He's exactly the kind of Yankees pitcher that has baffled the Twins for the last decade. He's a veteran. He never challenges batters, preferring to keep making his pitch until he finds an impatient batter. And he's left-handed.

If you only watch one-pitch per at-bat with Pettitte on the mound, make it the first one. It's usually a strike, and if it's good enough to hit, the batter will do fairly well (.360 batting average). But if Pettitte gets strike one, batters have hit just .212 against him this year. On the other hand, if he falls behind 1-0, batters have posted an 876 OPS against him.

Links
I mentioned last week that Michael “Sammy” Samuelson had a get-together at Sunday’s game. Sammy is a life long baseball fan who, along with Julian Loscalzo, is responsible for the irreverent Hot Stove League Banquet each January. For Sunday’s game, he was followed by a video team from StarTribune.com, and the video has been posted here.

A great baseball game can bring out the best in us. As proof I offer “Ode to the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome” by Andrew Berg. Well worth the click.

Finally, please consider signing up to follow me on Twitter this weekend. I don't know where I'll be watching (or attending) the games, but whatever is going on, I'll be talking about it in short 140 character snippets. I'd love you to be a part of that.

A Dozen Memories Before Bed

It is quiet, still and dark now. That’s a stark contrast to the last 10 hours, but exactly what I need. I’m recovering from the best baseball game I’ve seen live in 18 years, a cacophony of noise, hope, rage, enthusiasm and community and – and I’m spent. The kids are in bed, so is The Voice of Reason™, and I should be – god knows I should be – but I'm not ready to fully embrace the quiet, still and dark.

So let’s shift from “recover” to “reminisce”, in the hopes of eventually reaching “relish”. There were 12 innings, and that’s just such a beautiful round number, full of biblical implications, so let’s go through the twelve innings and pull a memory out of each.

1st
I’m going to remember Joe Mauer taking that extra base. My kids were at the game, and since they don’t watch that much baseball, they didn’t understand how extraordinary that is. A team leader, not especially fast, and a catcher to boot, going like a bat out of hell to squeeze an extra base. Justin Morneau did the same thing the first series of the season, and it impressed the hell out of me then, and Mauer impressed the hell out of me tonight.

But I didn’t explain it to my kids. They aren’t there yet, they wouldn’t get it. I’d just be their dad rambling on about something unimportant, the same way all our parents do. And logically they would be right, because Mauer is stranded there as the inning ends.

But it was important. I believe that.

2nd
Tigers have a runner on third base with one out and fail to drive him in. I was just on Seth’s podcast tonight and I wondered out loud how many times that happened to Detroit tonight. So I’m going to look through the game quick and let you know…

Four times. That’s less than I thought. But note that this isn’t how many times that runners were in scoring position and a batter didn’t get a hit. This is how many times a productive out would’ve scored a run, but didn’t. It happened this inning, and twice in the ninth and once in the 12th.

I haven’t reflected much on just how heart-breaking this loss must be to Tigers fans. Besides the lack of execution with runners on third, you have the misplays in the field and the three game lead collapse. (Shudder) That's enough reflection for now.

3rd
I hate to say it – but I'll remember the “al-cho-hol-ic” chant the crowd directed at Miguel Cabrera the most. I know, I know – you stay classy, Minneapolis. But I don’t feel the need to apologize for it.

4th
I remember Scott Baker continuing to struggle, giving up a single and then starting the next batter with an outside pitch before shortstop Orlando Cabrera called time-out to talk to him, with Mauer joining them. One pitch later Rick Anderson also came out to talk to him.

From then forward, Baker was very good, and having him go into the seventh inning helped a bullpen which should be a legitimate concern versus the Yankees.

5th
Nothing much happened this inning, so let’s go with a pregame memory. We park an hour and twenty minutes before game time thinking we’ll stop at Maxwell’s and maybe get some waffle fries. We know we’re in trouble when we see a line of people waiting to get into Grumpy’s. Maxwell’s has no line, but is so full of people that it felt dangerous in there. We skedaddled and just went to the dome.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – this is a football town. But we’re getting there. The pregame insanity and the reaction of tonight’s crowd is a testament to it.

6th
Jason Kubel, after two very bad at-bats, homers and I’ve been told that’s when it looked like the crowd got into the game. Maybe. But I gotta say, I was more impressed with the crowd tonight than I’ve been in years, even before Kubel’s shot.

50,000 people in the dome can make a lot of noise, but they can also make a lot of silence. I didn’t notice the silence even when the Twins were down 3-0. It was exactly as if the crowd knew that they were going to need to pack a lunch, that this was a game that was going to be decided late.

Let me add one caveat – my enthusiasm for the crowd might be a result of sitting in the second level. There were plenty of times I would look around and see the more expensive seats sitting while upper deck sections were rising and screaming for a 3rd strike. I think this was a case where the farther you were from the action, the more fun it was.

And there were times I’m sure the crowd affected the players. I’m quite sure it helped the Twins score in the bottom of the tenth. It might very well have kept overmatched umpire Randy Marsh from hearing Brandon Inge’s uniform get scraped by a pitch. And I’m convinced we carried Bobby Keppel in the twelfth. All he had to do was throw the first strike and the crowd would take it from there.

7th
I remember the pandemonium during and after Orlando Cabrera’s line drive home run. My kids were elated. Everyone is giving high fives or just hugging. And I dared to think my kids might just experience the rarest of events in Minnesota sports – a big win that really means something.

8th
Or not. The Magglio Ordonez shot was quick enough that we were all sort of numbed by it, but the Rick Raburn/Matt Guerrier/Marsh battle was what got us all worked up. The umpiring seemed so bad tonight that I assumed I was just in a terrible position to evaluate it. After talking to several fans and reading some stories, it seems like a shame that an umpire’s very bad day could affect such a critical game.

9th
Span CANNOT bunt in that situation. I assume he did so on his own, but then someone needs to pull him aside before the at-bat – or even during the at-bat – and let him know he can’t bunt in that position. If Kubel is batting fourth, he can. But since Kubel had been lifted an inning earlier, he can’t. And somebody needs to help him out with this.

The Tigers will likely get criticized for some miscues in this game, but it’s worth pointing out that Brandon Inge made a diving stop of a rocket by Cabrera to keep the Twins from scoring in this inning. It was a breathtaking defensive play.

10th
I’m going to remember my 10-year-old son spinning towards me with his lower lip out and tears in his eyes. Between the HBP of Audrey Huff and calling the pitch immediately before Inge’s double a ball, The Boy™ is convinced that there is an injustice being done. Nothing make that kid madder than that, except maybe losing, and now we had both.

It’s also worth noting that in Matt Tolbert’s RBI single in the bottom of the frame, the Tigers came within inches of that being a double play instead. I did not think that grounder was getting through. I’m not sure I know how it did.

11th
As the Twins used three pitchers in this frame, I remember The Voice of Reason™ turning to me and asking if Ron Gardenhire was going to run out of pitchers soon. I said I didn’t think so, because the Twins still had Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano and Jeff Manship (not to mention Armando Gabino) available. That’s the advantage of September.

And meanwhile, Fernando Rodney breezes through the bottom of the tenth on something like 35 pitches – and there is nobody warming up in the Tigers bullpen? Really?

12th
Two things – I’ll remember the crowd trying desperately to will Keppel through a scoreless inning. I’ll remember Gardenhire charging out of the dugout by NOT making a pitching change, and me thinking he’s insane.

But mostly I’ll remember Carlos Gomez sliding across home plate. Two innings earlier I had watched him fly into a rage as he left the field and entered the dugout, furious at himself for not getting the clutch hit the team needed in the ninth. Now he’s sliding like a rapturous superman. Gawd it's fun to watch him love this game.

Good - that seems like a good memory to hold onto as I go to bed. It’s time for quiet, still and dark to have their turn.

Gulping Sports from a Firehose

The taste was familiar, but I couldn't quite place it.

Does anyone else feel their life spinning out of control during a pennant race? I stood looking in the mirror this morning and wondered how much longer I could hang on.

I'm up late writing or unwinding. I have a dining room table with two weeks of unopened mail and a planner full of procrastination. I'm eating like Prince Fielder and spending money like George Steinbrenner. All while I wear the same lucky shirt day after day. Things may not be falling apart yet, but some bolts sure need tightening.

It's affecting my relationships. I don't have anything else to talk about with friends. My own kids are amused by me. My marriage would likely be tested if my wife wasn't a huge Phillies fan. Being from Philly, she gets it. Most of that city is like this a half dozen times a year.

Thinking of Philly - that's when I recognized the taste. Youth. This week tastes like youth. Balancing on a wave that is close to out of control. Not sleeping, combined with too much emotion. Periods of waiting punctuated by hours of excess. Connecting with strangers, hanging with friends, accepting opportunities, stretching oneself thin - this bittersweet taste is youth.

We middle-aged guys tend to romanticize youth. We remember the highlights, the bonding, the freedom, the sense of purpose. We forget how many of our actions were driven by boredom or ignorance or insecurity.

But mostly we forget just how uncomfortable youth really is. Too often it feels like nothing fits. Things are too tight or too loose or they chafe. We find a way to handle it because it doesn't last long. We fight through it and forget it because of the highs.

Which is what Seth wanted to talk about on Saturday night's podcast. He wanted to hear about the highs of attending The Greinke Game, wanted a sense of the exhilaration. What did Mauer's single feel like? Delmon's double? The last out?

They felt like they're supposed to feel. They were loud, communal and chaotic. They were a layer of joy fueled by a mound of rage. They were a tomorrow and sea of yesterdays joined by a moment. They felt like youth.

And I hope it continues, because the highs are great. But thank gawd it doesn't last long.

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But you don't come here to hear about my life falling apart, or at least I hope not. That would be a little morbid. You come here to read about the Twins, so let's review a handful of my Tweets from the weekend and expand on them a bit.

Keppel?!? What kind of Rasputin-type hold does he have on Gardy. And where are the Nobles when you need them?

You know who would be nice to have available right now? Perkins. #Twins are really showing him who is boss.

Right now, no lead feels safe. It feels a lot like the 2002 playoffs, when the bullpen got to the point where they were wilting en masse. That's forgivable most of the season - but not between September 1st and the postseason. The Twins could have another 15 relievers on the roster right now, but Bill Smith promoted just one - Armando Gabino. Who is a pitcher that Gardenhire trusted to throw all of 3.2 innings since being recalled at the end of August. Meanwhile, Glen Perkins is sitting at home, either as a punitive act, a fiscal act, or both.

It feels like there is some dysfunction going on that I can't entirely put my finger on. It doesn't feel like it's just Gardenhire or just Smith. Gardenhire stumbled upon a possible solution late in the game yesterday, when he turned to Brian Duensing and Francisco Liriano to pitch late innings. Let's hope that depth and some extra rest gets the bullpen back to a respectable level before they really need them.

OK, that's it for now. I got a date with The Voice of Reason. We'll talk tomorrow before The Big Game.

On Magic Numbers, Matchups and Channeling Trent Tucker

We just need to take care of our business, we can only control what we can control, we can't worry about the Tigers, it doesn't do any good to watch the scoreboard, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Did you know that teams that are in second place can have a Magic Number? It's true. The Twins' Magic Number is six. Unfortunately, they only have three games left, so we ARE going to worry about the Tigers and watch the scoreboard. And while we're at it, let's look at the pitching matchups for both series, because the sad truth is that if five of these six games don't go the Twins way, we're done.

Friday
Jeff Manship(MIN) vs. Lenny Dinardo(KC)

Time for Jeff to show a little Manship. He regressed in each of his four starts, but had decent success in his last bullpen appearance. He's got to quit freaking walking batters. Take the hill and throw the ball over the plate, young fella. (Hmm. I'm channeling my inner Trent Tucker. How adorable.)

Fortunately, almost everything I just said about Manship, I could say about Dinardo. Except for the "young fella" part. He's 30.

Edwin Jackson(DET) vs. Jake Peavy(CWS)

I love Ozzie Guillen. Peavy, who is an NL Cy Young award winner, last pitched last on Friday, so he could've pitched Wednesday. But Ozzie held him off to pitch against the Tigers instead. Jackson has struggled for most of September, and gave up five runs to the White Sox last Sunday in a 8-4 loss.

Saturday
Nick Blackburn(MIN) vs. Zach Greinke(KC)

I suppose it's only fair that the Twins get to face a probable Cy Young award winner the next day. Grienke's is a heart-warming story about a player who battled back from depression to fulfill the sizable expectations that were heaped on his shoulders. And I can't think of a better ending than the Twins ripping his still-beating heart out of his chest and ruining any Cy Young consideration the last six months has generated. Call me a hopeless romantic.

Freddy Garcia(CWS) vs. Alfredo Figaro(DET)

When Monday's game was rained out, there was a lot of debate about whether it would have a negative effect on the Twins because Joe Mauer wouldn't catch both games of the doubleheader. (He did, but he ran like he did the next two days.) But the far bigger impact to both teams was that it meant the pitchers for that game would need to pitch their next game on just three days rest. That's what Blackburn is doing for the Twins.

The Tigers went in different direction. This spot should be taken by Rick Porcello, who is just 20 years old and was stretched to 165 innings already this year. Rather than make his young arm pitch on short rest the Tigers are turning to Figaro, a 25-year-old right-hander who doesn't look like a bad prospect, but who has appeared in only four major league games and is working his way back from wrist surgery.

The White Sox are countering with Garcia, who has been pretty good for most of September, but got the snot pounded out of him last Saturday by....the Tigers. Sigh.

Sunday
Brian Duensing(MIN) vs. Luke Hochevar(KC)

Duensing has been lights out since joining the rotation, but had his worst start of the year on Tuesday night. Keep your fingers crossed. Hochevar threw a complete game shutout on September 18th - and still had an 8.16 ERA in September. Let's hope he's not "on" because then he's almost certainly "off".

Justin Verlander(DET) vs. John Danks(CWS)

The Tigers have announced that if this game means anything, Verlander will be the guy on the mound. You might have heard about him. But don't give up hope, because several of the White Sox have had a lot of success against him over their careers, including Jermaine Dye, Carlos Quentin and AJ Pierzynski. And one gets the sense that the White Sox kind of thrive on spite.

Which might also explain Danks starting. He's been good lately, almost the exact opposite of Hochevar. Danks gave up seven runs against the Twins last week - but still had a 3.21 ERA over the month of September. That's tight.

Next
I'm hopeful that on Monday you'll return to see another pitching matchup - something like Rick Porcello against Carl Pavano for the AL Central Championship. But if you don't, you're going to want to be here as we prepare for the offseason with the release of the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. I'm really excited about this book which lets you make the same decisions as the Twins general manager and build the team you think they should have. We're putting the final touches on it this weekend, and it'll be released only if the Twins are actually eliminated. Otherwise, we'll hold off. We don't want to be done with this season yet.

Sunday
I almost forgot. For those of you who go to the Hot Stove Annual Winter Banquet that is thrown by Julian Loscalzo and Michael "Sammy" Samuelson, you'll be happy to hear there is also a celebratory event this Sunday. I can't make it to the last game, but this sounds beautiful. From Sammy....

To all: We will, for the final time at at the HHH Metrodome, be hosting our annual end of the season potluck "brunch" this next Sunday, 10/4 starting around 10:30 am before the Twins vs Royals game. We will be gathering at the low wall on the Left side of the Dome's main entrance at 6th and Chicago (just behind the kettle corn stand). Due to planned pre-game festivities, we are asking that folks show up a bit earlier then usual so we do not miss too much of the going ons.

You can expect to munch on everything from shrimp, White Castle sliders, cheesecake and my famous tater tot hotdish! If you can make it please bring a dish to share for between 12-15 of your fellow seat mates. We hope you come by even if you do not have a ticket.

Win! Twins! - Sammy and Kiki

Also, apparently there will be a film crew there from StarTribune.com to do a feature on Sammy. If I get the link, I'll be sure to pass it along.

So I Suppose I Gotta Post...

But there are times where things are better not written.

So let's wait. We can dissect this season slowly, and probably painfully, next week. After all, the season isn't over, even if it's just one loss away from over.

I'll say two things:
1) Yesterday on KSTP AM 1500, Patrick Reusse said he was as impressed with the Twins on Tuesday night in a loss as he had been all season. And I sat back and thought "Yes, that's true."

I did NOT feel the same way last night. I'm assuming Mr. Reusse would say the same thing.

2) If you stop by this site, I'm begging you, try out Twitter. I posted roughly twenty times over the last couple days, including WAY too many times while watching game one of this series with @sethtweets. It is not Facebook. It is not social networking. You don't have to "friend" anyone, and you don't have to post anything about yourself. All you have to do is choose people to follow, and you get a cross between (very short) blogging, news feeds and a discussion group. Oh, and you get it all right on your mobile phone.

I'll be back tomorrow, hopefully breaking down some pitching matchups for the Twins/Royals and Tigers/White Sox for game that still mean something.

Head to Head

You know how you decide which is the best team? You watch them play head-to-head. The team that wins - that's the best team.

That's why I like the unbalanced schedule. It's easy to criticize. Fans will point out that it makes the Wild Card inherently unfair. Stats geeks gripe cuz it ruins their clean little metrics. And team promoters grumble because big market teams visit less often.

But I'll take it, because I like seeing my team face the opposition. 70+ games every year against your own division generally decides things. Just look at the last four years:

- The team with the best record within the Central division also won the division in 2005 (the White Sox, 52-22) and 2007 (Indians, 48-24).

- The happened again last year, only in a much cooler fashion. At the end of the regular season, both the White Sox and the Twins not only had tied for overall record, but they had tied for their divisional record too (44-29). So they had a one-game playoff, which propelled the White Sox to finish +15 games in the division while the Twins slipped to +13. And the White Sox were the AL Central champions.

- In 2006, it also worked out, though no quite as cleanly. Detroit had the best divisional record (+15 games over .500), but Minnesota (who was only +6) passed them in the overall standings on the last day of the season. But both teams went to the playoffs, and the Tigers got the last laugh, making it to the World Series, while the Twins couldn't get out of the ALDS.

That's why somewhere between 2001 and now I stopped penning a yearly staple of sports writers. You see it almost every August. It's the story that shows that even though your team is only back a handful of games, they would need to play something like .700 ball assuming the team in front of them plays .500 ball. I quit writing it because it's become almost meaningless with the unbalanced schedule. You don't need a sustained period of excellence to gain three games. You need a really good weekend.

Or week, which brings us to this year. Within the division, the Twins have had a much better record, finishing +15 games over .500 compared to the Tigers +9. The Twins have also beat the Tigers head on this season, winning nine of fourteen games. But to continue this clean little divisional trend, they'll need to win three of four in Detroit.

That's the way it should be. Prove you're the better team the week before the playoffs. Sweep and it's over. Win three of four, and you're worthy. Win one of four and the last weekend is meaningless. And if it's a draw, we'll let the rest of the season break the tie.

There is an elegance in lots of the advanced baseball metrics that we examine throughout the season. But I'll take the simple head-to-head matchup. The team that wins - that's the best team.

Bring on the Tigers.

Tomorrow

There is no tomorrow, that’s what they say. Benches are emptied. Stadiums are filled. Swings are shortened. Pitchers are stretched. The pennant race is here, and fans, players and coaches are reacting like there is no tomorrow.

But can the same be said for the Twins front office?

Let’s consider third base. The Twins have been mixing and matching Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert and Brian Buscher at the hot corner for the last month. Baseball geeks like to debate (or criticize manager Ron Gardenhire) about which one should be there, but that really misses the point. They’re ALL backup infielders being asked to play one of the premium offensive and defensive positions on the field. There isn't a right choice.

Meanwhile the Twins have their third baseman of the future, Danny Valencia, sitting at – well, where is he sitting exactly? It’s not AAA-Rochester, where he finished the season batting .286, because Rochester’s season has been over for several weeks.

Wherever he's spending the offseason, it’s not perfectly clear he’s ready for the majors, though he certainly is supposed to be by the middle of next year. But it is perfectly clear that he’s more likely to be a starting third baseman than the four-headed monster the Twins are trotting out there will ever be. So why isn’t he called up? If for no other reason than to give him a taste of the big leagues? Of a pennant race?

The cynical answer is financial. Calling him up now starts his service clock ticking. That means he hits free agency a year earlier, and it likely means he starts becoming expensive a year earlier than a midseason callup. Some might call that long-term thinking. I’ll go with penny-wise and pound-foolish. It also pays too much attention to a distant tomorrow, while demanding the team plays like there isn’t one.

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The above was broadcast as the GameDay Chatter segment during the Twins Extra Innings radio broadcast following last Sunday's Twins game. Tune in this Sunday to hear Will Young talk about the 1969 Twins.

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The above post was pretty short, and you're likely not filled up. Then head on over to The Hardball Times and read The 10 Greatest Games in Metrodome History. It is an incredibly well-researched story from a guy who isn't "one of us", but sure did his homework. Enjoy, and we'll see you on Monday.

Hope Lives

Sorry gang. I've been watching, but not writing. Let's try and remedy that with a short entry today.

Today (Thursday) the Tigers will play, the Twins won't, and we'll be down to ten games for both teams. Ten is a nice satisfying number in general, but it has some additional importance in this case, because they happen in ten games. No off days. That means we'll be cycling through each rotation exactly twice.

On the whole, that's probably better news for the Twins than the Tigers. The Twins have one gaping hole in their rotation which they'll probably try to plug next Francisco Liriano this weekend. But the Tigers have two gaps, and have recently been trotting out Nate Robertson and Eddie Bonine to fill them.

Robertson we saw on Sunday, which is why is was so very, very frustrating to lose that game. Of all the games in that series, that was the one the Twins should have been most favored to win. He's been terrible for a year-and-a-half. He's lost his spot in the rotation multiple times. He pitched that game while recovering from a groin injury. To be technical, it was while recovering from an inflammation in his left pelvis. Which sounds significantly worse. He also underwent elbow surgery earlier this year.

Supporters will point out that his ERA since he returned from the surgery is just 2.33. But he's still giving up hits (19 in 19.1 innings) and he's still giving up walks (11). He's not as good as his numbers and tomorrow night the White Sox will get a chance to prove it.

Bonine is a 28-year-old soft-throwing right-hander who spent most of the year in AAA-Toledo. His ERA is 5.96. He's given up 31 hits in 22.7 innings. I don't feel like I need to say much more than that. He's starting after Robertson, Saturday, also versus the White Sox.

So the Twins best hope for making up ground happens on Friday and Saturday. And the next time these two start? That would be the last two games of the series versus the Twins.

And if, by some strange chance, the AL Central needs to be decided by a one-game playoff? The only two Detroit pitchers who will have had a full four days rest will be Robertson and Bonine.

Hope lives, my friends. Hope lives.

Mauer Math
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I thought I heard Dick Bremer say during last night's broadcast that Joe Mauer only needed to go 21 for 44 over the last eleven games to hit .400. I think he was off by ten hits.

In case you're wondering, Mauer is currently 179 for 481. If you assume he gets four more AB per game, that's 521 AB. To hit .400 or more, he would need 209 hits. That's 30 hits in 40 AB.

I think we can safely say the dream is dead this year. Nobody is sorrier that me to hear it.

Nathan's Red Indicator Light

You may not be a machine Joe, but that doesn't mean we can't treat you like one.

The result was bad - a loss to the White Sox that leaves the Twins currently 4.5 games back of the Tigers. But the implication might have been worse.

Joe Nathan hasn't been right, and it's been apparent for several weeks, starting with a blown save that led to a 53 pitch outing against the Royals on August 21st. Nathan has been a stable and nearly unstoppable force since his arrival in 2004 in the AJ Pierzynski trade. This year and last you can change that article to "the", as in "the" stable and nearly unstoppable force. Because there hasn't been much else. Losing him might be the final blow to a team that has been deflecting a lot of final blows this season.

You can probably go somewhere else on the Twins blogosphere for a breakdown of Nathan's mechanics, but when I want to figure out if there's something wrong with a pitcher, I treat them like a machine. And the red indicator light for a pitcher with a serious problem is a sharp decline in his strikeout rate. So let's use that nifty Excel Chart Wizard and map Nathan's K/9 rate for each month since he got here, and compare it to his average rate over that time:



Nathan's strikeout rate this year and last has generally been a little lower than his overall average. That's to be expected, by the way - it happens to pitchers in the major leagues as hitters slowly adjust. But in Nathan's case, his strikeout rate has been increasing towards the end of this year, and was as high in August as it has been for the last couple years. That's far from a blinking red indicator light.

Is he trying to strike out people too much? Is he nibbling? It can't hurt to take a look and see if his control is off a bit, can it? Let's take a look at his BB/9 (walks per nine innings) rate over the same period.

Remember, on this chart, a peak is bad, and valleys are good. And last month, Nathan was at a peak that he hadn't seen since September of 2007 , when he blew back-to-back saves. Before that he reached this level back in September of 2006, when he was actually very, very good, because he was striking out a ton of people to make up for the walks.

But if you've been watching Nathan, the revelation that he's struggling with his control isn't a revelation at all. He's been missing the target on the outside of the plate consistently, especially against left-handed hitters. That's not exactly good news, but it isn't as bad as it could be. The machine definitely needs a tune-up, but he doesn't need an overhaul.

Swapping The Same Guy

In case you missed it, the PTBNL in the Jon Rauch trade came through yesterday, and it was Kevin Mulvey. This will undoubtedly stoke the "Johan Santana was a disastrous trade" fire. Whatever. The Santana trade was a dissappointment from the minute it was announced.

By the way, I think that link is worth a click through. The entire situation was baffling then, and it seems clear that Santana was manipulating it far more then we understood. It was a crappy trade because it was a crappy situation. That was true then, and it's true now.

Of course, this trade shouldn't be evaluated as part of a trade two years ago that still has some stink on it. It should be evaluated for what it is. So here are the components:

Mulvey is a 24-year-old AAA pitcher who is basically in his second year in AAA. His stats are slightly above average almost across the board, except for hits given up, where he's closer to average. He projects to be a back-of-the-rotation guy or middle reliever.

When Rauch was a 24-year-old, he was also in AAA. And his stats were slightly above average almost across the board, except for home runs given up, where he was below average. He had a handful of starts but ended up being a middle reliever. For the last few years, he was a very durable and effective middle reliever for the Nationals, but for the last year he has been a little less effective (and healthy) with the Diamondbacks.

In case you didn't notice, they're the same guy.

Straight up, not taking into consideration existing needs, Mulvey is usually going to be the more valuable guy to an organization because he has six more years of team control at a far lower salary. I'll even go as far to say that Mulvey might be at or near Rauch's level as early as late next year.

But Rauch is ready now. He's under control for next year. And he doesn't have the risk that Mulvey has or require the patience. This is not a steal, but it's a solid move, and the downside is that you probably lose an effective middle reliever from 2011 through 2013. So be it.

Twins Win!
Great win. A decent start by Jeff Manship, a few bombs by Michael Cuddyer, a bullpen meltdown, and a clutch hit by Jose Morales. I'd like to give you a few thoughts, but the dog needs walking. Here's an idea - follow me on Twitter. It takes about a second to sign up, and you can check your cell phone during the game and get all kinds of insights from all kind of Twins geeks.

You mean you're not? C'mon, what could be better than getting texted my Twins thoughts on your cell phone? You don't need to answer that. Just nod politely.

Catching Up with a Harden White Paper

After two weeks of traveling through Colorado with my family, I'm the last person you should be coming to for any insight on the Twins this week. So why am I writing? Because I'm afraid if I don't restart soon I might never.

It doesn't make it any easier that there are so many juicy topics. The Twins resurgance, the upcoming White Sox series, the September callups, two new bullpen arms....and the possible acquisition of Rich Harden.

The last, to a Twins Geek, is the biggest news, and worthy of a little research. Sorry if it's a little dry. I'll be walking through this as I go along.....

Harden would be available for seven starts for the Twins if he is acquired from the Chicago Cubs. He's supposed to pitch for them Monday night, but if he starts for the Twins on Tuesday or Wednesday, he could be lined up to pitch the leading game of both Detroit series. This for a guy who, you could argue, was as valuable an acquisition as CC Sabathia last year, and has posted a 2.94 ERA over the last two years.

Yes, he's unreliable because of his injury history. He's also very good. And he's been VERY good over his last eight starts, with seven quality starts and a 1.80 ERA. He also has that magic strikeout rate that gets us geeks so excited, though it's worth noting that we might want to get over that, seeing as those extra pitches that lead to strikeouts also likely contribute to his diminutive inning totals.

But what's really fascinating about Harden to a Twins Geek is his perceived 'value' in the marketplace. At a very simple level, he's going to be a free agent this offseason, so he's only worth seven starts, which is worth....well, it's hard to say. If we look at that phenomenal eight-game stretch he just completed, the Cubs won just four of those games.

I suppose I could break out a sabremetric like VORP here, but with just a month remaining, lets' eyeball it a bit. If Harden is replacing various fill-ins, like Jeff Manship, it seems realistic to say he's worth at least a couple of games, and maybe as many as three. And if one of those games are versus the Tigers, then maybe we're talking about one more game swing. It's a risky play, but there is some real value there. And if he fronts a starting rotation, that value could increase significantly.

But the value that the Cubs and Twins are focusing on is also off the field, and is a result of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. In an attempt to reduce the demand for (and salaries of) free agents, there is a clause which states that a team that loses a very desirable free agents (based on a formula developed by Elias) receives two top compensatory draft picks - one from the team that signed the player and one "sandwiched" between the first and second round.

However, and this is key, that only happens if they offer "arbitration" to the free agent. That means the team offers the player a chance to sign a one-year deal with them at a salary level that both can estimate but which will be ultimately decided by an arbitrator. In Harden's case, that essentially means offering him a one-year $10 million contract for next year. If he takes it, the Twins or Cubs must pay it. If not, that team would get the draft picks.

So, IF the team offers arbitration and IF Harden ends up going to another team anyway, he would be worth two high draft picks to that team. And since high draft picks often become top prospects, the Cubs are reportedly claiming that two top prospects are the starting point for Harden.

But what makes Harden's case so interesting is that it isn't totally clear that either team would definitely offer him arbitration. And it also isn't totally clear that if they do offer it, whether he would become a free agent.

The Cubs claim they would absolutely offer him arbitration, but of course it is in their best interest to claim that. But posturing aside, given their payroll and their needs in their starting rotation, it would make sense to do so and almost be irresponsible to not do so. The only thing that really gives me pause is that they're even entertaining offers. If they are in true talks about Harden, it must be to save the $1+ million he's owed this year. And if they're trying to save that, they might not be too keen on the $10 million he could make next year.

It would also make sense for the Twins to offer him arbitration. The Twins will have money to spend given their projected payroll, could use the starting pitching, and have a recent history of liking one-year contracts (even if they are somewhat expensive). The only puzzling factor is all the noise in the rumors about the Twins wanting an extension. Why would the Twins want an extension with a guy who has serious injury problems and who hasn't made more than 25 starts in a season since 2004? Why wouldn't they just offer him arbitration?

Ok, so maybe that wasn't that tough. It sure makes sense for both teams to offer him arbitration. But what are the chances he accepts it?

The question really is: what are the chances that some team offers him a deal better than that, such as a 2-year, $18 million contract or a 3-year, $26 million contract. Despite the down market last year, the Yankees guaranteed $82.5 million over 5 years to AJ Burnett, who also has struggled to stay healthy and accumulate starts prior to his contract year. To be fair, Harden makes Burnett look like Lou Gehrig, but Harden is five years younger and shows similar strikeout acumen and promise.

And promise is an intoxicating commodity. Just ask the Mets, who signed Oliver Perez to a $36 million, 3-year contract after he teased them for a couple of years. The only other free agent that looks somewhat comparable is Ben Sheets, who went unsigned, but he's just plain unable to pitch due to his latest surgery. Provided he stays healthy, Harden will likely be able to secure a significant multi-year deal, as the only free agent starting pitchers that seem likely to outrank him are Cliff Lee and Josh Beckett.

Again, provided he stays healthy. If he gets seriously hurt over the next two month, his team can't offer him arbitration, and he's not worth two top draft picks. That's what the Cubs have to gain by trading him. If they can get two top prospects, they cash their chips in a bit early, get their return, and probably save themselves a million bucks this year. If the Twins pull off the deal for two top prospects, they get their seven starts, a bill for a million dollars, two top draft picks, and a few healthy slices of risk to handle.

That seems like a fair trade to me. Taking some risks in September and October should be something that organizations fight for, not avoid.

Magic (Part 17)

"Life's like a movie, write your own ending."

- The Magic Store from The Muppet Movie

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It started with a decision in the spring of 1990. He asked her if their first date should be an afternoon at the Art Institute or a double-header at Wrigley Field.

"How is that even a call?" she replied.

The sun gleamed, the grass glowed underneath the ballplayers and the magical afternoon was made more so because he thought it was probably their last date as well; neither was from Chicago.

But he was wrong. Both traveled enough to occasionally gain discounted tickets and the 1000 miles between Minneapolis and Philadelphia wasn't as isolating as they both thought it would be. Or at least not initially.

------------------------------------------

Two years later, it was. So with $1000 shoved into his pocket and all his worldly possessions crammed in an '84 Honda Prelude, he moved to Philadelphia to court her. The courtship was fun, but not especially easy. First he had to find work during a recession, then she was assigned to a project out of town. And when the business world stopped conspiring to keep them apart, the tougher questions began. "Will he ever marry me? What's he waiting for?" "Is she really the one? How do I know?" The questions were more destructive than geographic distance ever had a chance to be.

On a summer trip out west, his questions were answered in the Black Hills. And on August 13th, when they were supposed to go to a Phillies game, he showed up with flowers, acted all goofy and suggested they go for a walk. And she knew her questions were about to be answered too.

Unaccustomed to being nervous, the proposal was awkward but genuine, and the response was delayed but jubilant. Standing together in the park, their future felt too large. Neither knew what to do, where to go, who to see.

"So do you still want to go the Phillies game?", he asked.

"How is that even a call?"

It wasn't a call, because the one place in Philadelphia where they both knew there was some magic that year was at the Vet. The '93 Phils, lead by blue-collar rejects like John Kruk, "Dutch" Daulton, "Nails" Dykstra and Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams had somehow claimed 1st place in the NL East. They'd won games at Veteran's Stadium in every conceivable manner, including one in which Mitch Williams got a hit in the bottom of the 10th - at 4:30 AM. Tonight they were playing the hated Mets and it seemed like as good a place as any to look for magic.

The electricity they felt made the game a secondary concern. She'll readily admit that she spent most of the game looking at the back of her hand. But the game slowly became the focal point when the Phillies lost their early lead in the top of the eighth. They scratched in a run in the bottom half, but were still down 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth.

But there was a reason this hard-nosed city loved this team. They used a crucial error by the Mets to score one run and loaded the bases with two outs. Kim Batiste, a light-hitting 25-year-old utility infielder who seemed to have a special gift for striking out, came to the plate, and.......

Grand Slam.

Pandemonium.

Magic.

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Today, on August 13th, they went to a baseball game together, like they have every August 13th for the last 17 years. And they looked for the magic. It wasn't in the Metrodome, which was a stinker, with lots of magic unfulfilled. She suspects it was back at Wrigley, where her Phils swept the Cubs. He would be foolish to disagree.

But secretly, he does. It rarely comes from outside them anymore. Instead, its now their job to share it. They find it in the piano lesson, the car ride, and the back-to-school shopping that happened later.

Most surprisingly, it's something they've learned to fight for, usually over a glass of wine during a hectic week. A chance to reaffirm decisions made 19 and 16 years ago and daily since.

And tonight he agrees. It's not even a call.

[Posted with iBlogger from my iPhone]

Shorts: Grudzielanek (Rios later)

Hi gang. Got about two minutes here, so here's the short versions of the first of the big off-day news:

Mark Grudzielanek: Well, for chrissakes. If you're going to get angry about something, this is the one that has the requisite symptoms. There were hints throughout this process that the Twins weren't optimistic, like:

- the lackluster announcement about the signing,
- they chased Freddy Sanchez after he signed,
- they signed another middle infielder and plugged him second in the order and
- the announcement on the 31st that he might need a month or so to get ready.

Apparently, Grudzielanek felt the same way, given that he texted Joe Christensen that the whole process was a waste of time.

So, let's recap what we know:
- Grudzielanek was a .300 hitter over the last few year with above average defensive range at second base. Oh, and he's right-handed and has mostly hit in the second spot in the order.
- On the other hand, he didn't sign with a team this fall. However, he was offered arbitration, worth $4-5 million with the Royals. He turned that down, saying he wanted to sign with a team that had a chance at playing in the World Series.
- After signing with the Twins, he spend more time in the Gulf Coast League than the had estimated, and the Twins repeatedly downplayed his potential impact, even as they searched for (and found) other replacements.

So what are the remaining theses? Umpteen options, but the top two are:

1) Grudzielanek, at 39 years old, let himself go a bit and wasn't ready when the call (finally) came.
2) The Twins desperate for help at second base, biased themselves against a possible solution after a very short three week trial.

Grudz apparently feels like it's door number two. Me? One makes more sense, but my heard says #2 too. Maybe that the Twins fan half of me talking.

Rios analysis coming tomorrow morning......