Twins Tickets Available for Opening Day/Series

It looks like the Twins have released some tickets for Opening Day. From a press release...

Twins Announce Ticket Updates for the Inaugural Season at Target Field

Twins season ticket cap opens single-game inventory for high demand games – Good News for Twins Fans

MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL, Minn. – The Minnesota Twins today announced ticketing updates for the Inaugural Season at Target Field. Due to the capping of season ticket sales at 24,500 tickets, inventory has been released for single game purchase for several games, including games of the opening home stand at Target Field.

As of now, tickets have become available for the following games during the Twins Inaugural Home stand at Target Field:

· Monday, April 12 vs. Boston Red Sox at 3:10 p.m. - 500 tickets

· Wednesday, April 14 vs. Boston Red Sox at 12:10 p.m. – 1,000 tickets

· Thursday, April 15 vs. Boston Red Sox at 12:10 p.m. – 1,100 tickets

· Friday, April 16 vs. Kansas City Royals at 7:10 p.m. – 1,900 tickets

· Saturday, April 17 vs. Kansas City Royals at 12:10 p.m. – 1,600 tickets

· Sunday, April 18 vs. Kansas City Royals at 1:10 p.m. – 1,500 tickets

· Tuesday, April 20 vs. Cleveland Indians at 7:10 p.m. – 3,000 tickets

· Wednesday, April 21 vs. Cleveland Indians at 7:10 p.m. – 3,000 tickets

· Thursday, April 22 vs. Cleveland Indians at 12:10 p.m. – 3,000 tickets

To date, the Twins have sold more than 2.6 million tickets for the 2010 season. In comparison, the Twins sold 2.4 million tickets during the entire 2009 season.

“Capping season tickets at 24,500 has allowed us to open up some inventory for single-game ticket sales,” said Paul Froehle, senior director of ticket operations for the Twins. “In addition, visiting clubs have returned some inventory they won’t be using. Fans are encouraged to check back often as seats may have opened up for some very desirable games.”

Limited season ticket inventory remains in the Champions Club and Delta SKY360 Legends Club.

Single-game tickets for the Inaugural Season at Target Field are available at www.twinsbaseball.com, by calling 612-33-TWINS or 800-33-TWINS, at the Target Field box office and at Twins Pro Shop locations in Apple Valley, Minnetonka and Roseville.

A Sigh of Relief

For several weeks I've maintained that the Twins likely do need to trade for a reliever, or do something drastic like move Francisco Liriano to that role, because thi in-house candidates have good enough "stuff" to handle the jib themselves. But what I haven't done is check out their strikeout rates. Let's remedy that.

K/9 is a pretty good back-of-the-napkin measurement of dominance. As a benchmark, a 6 is average and a 9 is great. Joe Nathan, for instance, had a k/9 rate last year of 11.7. Here are the rest of the guys.

Matt Guerrier - 5.5
Jesse Crain - 7.5
Jose Mijares - 8.0
Jon Rauch - 8.0 (with Twins)
Pat Neshek - 9.5 (back in 2007)

And the new guy, Alex Burnett? Well, it was only AA, but he posted an 8.5.

These aren't great, but they're good enough. The Twins will fond someone who can do the job.



-- Posted From My iPhone

Twins Feast

I’m not going to lie – it’s been a dark couple of months. Back in late-January, while speaking with new Target Field Executive Chef Pastor Jiminez, he told me the awful truth about Target Field's new Murray’s Steak Sandwich. I recalled it in this blog post the next day....

Speaking of bad driving, we talked with the folks at the Target Field display about their food options. It started as a very pleasant conversation. I'm excited about the options there, and they were receptive to our lobbying for Surly to be included in the available beers. Of course, we also pointedly argued that they couldn't claim to have Minnesota food fare and not have anything with Spam.

OK, we likely didn't help our credibility much with that last point.

But the really disappointing part of that conversation was the revelation that the Murray's Steak Sandwiches that are going to be served at Target Field are not the same as the ones they currently serve in the bar at Murray's. They're coming up with something new, instead. In fact, they haven't even determined what it is going to be.

(These sandwiches, as you know, if you know me, are ambrosia. Char-grilled, oh-so-tender, pink-fibered ambrosia, cut into tiny chunks and covered with cheese and bacon. I would walk over hot coals for that thing. They only serve it at lunch and they only serve it in the bar. There. Now you have lunch plans today.)

Worse, once they create this new...this new... I'm going to go with "monstrosity"..., they're going to replace the sandwich they currently have with it. It's the worst possible situation.

And later in the post….

Please, gawd, don't let them shave the steak for those sandwiches. It HAS to be bite-sized chunks of beef. If they try to create a Philly Cheesesteak, which they will inevitably butcher, and ALSO screw up my steak sandwich, I'm going to be inconsolable.

And then…

If you want to sell something from Murray's, how about the garlic toast they have in the bar? Offer me a sleeve of those things for $5 and the popcorn guy will go out of business.

And I finished it with….

It's hopeless, isn't it? It's going to go the way of my lamb sirloin with that tasty dipping sauce they had at Palomino in the 90's. I hate change.

And thus began the self-pity spiral, and I’m not going to apologize for it. One of the top five foodstuffs in this world was going away, never to be heard from again, and I was powerless to stop it.

Well, somewhere, someone heard my plea. Actually, I can pretty much tell you who at least one of those someones was – Matt Hansen at the forward-thinking firm Beehive PR, who was kind enough to invite me and a few other bloggers to Twins Feast yesterday.

(No, “Twins Feast” wasn’t the official name. It was dubbed such by an exceedingly jealous and gratifyingly bitter Voice of Reason. Giggle.)

Tell me that THIS doesn’t sound like heaven: you get invited into Target Field, ushered around from booth to booth by an assortment of chefs, and handed free food while you interview and take photos. Doesn’t that sound nice?

Well, it IS nice. And I tweeted the whole thing. Since some of you folks might want to gnosh a little at the two exhibition games this weekend, I thought I’d give you a few impressions:

Hrbek's

The afternoon started at Hrbek's, the bar on the first level pretty much directly behind home plate. And there we learned that I'm a pretty terrible photographer, because that food on the left is much, much better than it looks in thie picture. The onion ring is the size of a baseball, and the T-Rex burger is stuffed with cheese and carmelized onions and anything else that looks good in a burger. Plus, they had some ice cream sundae things that go on a cookie that were instantly nominated as "Food Most Likely to Put John Into a Diabetic Shock."

Which is a shame, because I'm almost sure I'm not going to spend much time in Hrbek's, despite liking it very much. We'll get to why later.

Oh, and I'll apologize in advance - I didn't have the Vincent Burger. Sorry. I have no excuse. It was just bad driving. I'll remedy that on Opening Day.

Kramarczuk's Sausages

It's nice to have Kramarczuk's in Target Field just so I can eventually master the spelling and pronunciation of their name. I still remember that warm glow I felt the first time I didn't need to look up "Pierzynski" and the chest bump after mastering "Mientkiewicz." I felt a little robbed last year when the Grundzielanek experiment ended a little early. It's nice to have a new mountain to climb.

And it looks like I'm going to need to learn it because I'm going to be talking about these sausages. Somewhere during my time at the Metrodome I switched from being a bratwurst guy to a hot dog guy. That's going to change. The bratwurst I had was outstanding, and the polish sausage that followed it was even better. Plus, I'm going to want to hang out around that stand just for the smells. I might consider moving my seats. It's that good.

My only concern about these is how long the line will be. I expect it will be Chipotle-in-the-mid-90s kinda long.

Schwiegert Hot Dogs

Another reason that I'm pretty sure I'm going to end up eating so many Kramarczuks' sausages is because I have some concerns about the hot dog situation. Twice I've been at Target Field, and twice the only dogs I've found are the $5.25 "Big Dogs," which is the new equivalent of the Dome Dogs. I was never a dome dog guy - they're expensive, they're too big, and I don't want the chips. And I feel the same way about the Big Dogs, except that they also have a bun that's too bready.

According to the North Delaware representative, they are selling original dogs in the park all over the place. They would be the equivalent of the dollar dogs they had at the Metrodome, and they're supposed to be the same recipe they had at The Met. And they absolutely have both yellow and brown mustard. No sign of sauerkraut, which is obviously a concern, but I'm going to assume they have that covered.

Tony O's Cuban Sandwiches Stand

Yep, that's Tony Oliva, who together with top Twins and Deleware North brass introduced his Cuban Sandwich stand. There's going to be a lot of competition for the food dollar in Target Field, but I think these are going to stand out. It's comfort food. It looked like ham, pork, swiss cheese, thinly sliced pickle and mustard inside a flaky role. If you like grilled cheese or pot roast sandwiches, I think you're going to like this plenty.

Asian Noodles

I'm embarassed to say I don't know the name of the stand that served us Asian Noodles, but it was just to the left of Hrbek's yesterday. That's not generally considered ballpark food, but I found it to be a nice option. In particular, I was impressed that they weren't afraid to make it a little spicy. I won't be surprised if I find myself back there soon. Keep it in the back of your mind.

Ribs, Chili and State Fair Fare

I absolutely love ribs, so even though I was getting full I was pretty excited to go after a few of them from the State Fair booth out in left field. Unfortunately, they were simply, um, fair. Maybe they would have been better received if I had them earlier in the day. My impression of them, along with the chili and the walleye-on-a-stick, was that none of them were going to rise to the top of my list at the park.

Townball Tavern

One thing that WILL be at the top of my list is the bar on the second level down the third base line: the Townball Tavern. The featured item on the tour was the non-alchoholic feature on the left: a two-person root beer float made with Killebrew Root Beer, ice cream, whipped cream and a root beer cookie stick. It is enormous. Possibly the greatest shared dessert date item ever.

But the reason I'm likely going to spend my time here instead of Hrbek's is because of the balcony. Out the back of the tavern is a small shady balcony with a half a dozen tables on it that just beg for hours of lounging before or after a game. It's such a great feature that it makes me almost angry that it isn't everywhere, stretched across the entire south and east sides of the stadium. I can hardly wait to take advantage of it.

And what will I be drinking at the Tavern? For the most part, Target Field looks to be a Budweiser ballpark, or at least that's the domestic mass-produced beer that is most prevalent. Summit is also on tap, listed as a premium beer, which means it costs $7.50. I'm almost sure I saw Grain Belt Premium that last time I was there. I've heard Surly is available in cans somewhere, but I didn't find it. I'll do a more exhaustive survey on Opening Day.

The Murray's Steak Sandwich

And so finally, we get to the main event.

I'm relieved - very, very, VERY relieved - to say they mostly got it right. The key is the bite size steak chunks. This isn't a shaved steak sandwich, and the chunks were really tender, meaining it wasn't a chore to chew. It's covered with provolone cheese and served on ciabatta bread which holds up nicely. Unlike the old version, there isn't any bacon, but I was almost giddy to find that each one is served with an authentic piece of Murray's Garlic Toast, just like they have in the bar.

It runs $10.50, which is a lot for ballpark food but about the same price I've paid for it in the bar. If they can continue to make sure the steak bites are tender, it's going to become a staple. If not, I'll need to get the original one at Murray's before the game. Either way, it sounds like there are going to be plenty of options.

Ramos and $23 Million

The most hotly debated roster spot in Twins camp was resolved yesterday when we found out that catcher Wilson Ramos will be sent to AAA-Rochester to start the season, which awards Drew Butera the role of backup catcher. It was a hot topic because the better player will not be on the Twins roster.

Ramos is only 22 years old, relatively strong defensively, and hit the cover off the ball this spring, showing the power that makes him a top prospect. Butera, who is four years older, showed he was strong defensively but hit the way you would expect a career .214 batting average minor leaguer might hit. And to be honest, he wasn’t even that good.

However, Ramos isn’t on the roster for two reasons. The more cynical reason is service time. When Ramos is on the 25-man roster he starts earning service time, and that tenure eventually raises his salary and leads to free agency. That’s hard to justify for a top player when he’s only playing a couple times per week. The second reason is playing time. As a top prospect, it would probably serve Ramos better to play full time in AA or AAA than only a couple of times per week in the majors.

On the other hand, you have the impact Ramos could have in the majors. He would probably get about six starts per month so long as Joe Mauer stays healthy. He would also give manager Ron Gardenhire a right-handed bench option with some power beyond Brendan Harris.

For me, at least, it’s an easy decision. Ramos has only 54 games at AA. He likely needs more time in the minors, no matter how well he hit this spring. The short-term pain is worth the long-term gain and he should be sent down.

(And just for clarity, it’s worth noting that this future star slugger currently has just 31 home runs in his entire four-year minor league career. His career OPS in the minors? 790. His career slugging percentage? .447. He’s been young for his competition, and he had a monster winter and monster spring, but let’s be a little careful about the expectations we heap on this kid just yet.)

All the Ramos hype and excitement took me someplace I didn’t want to go. But I’m helpless. I’m a Twins fan, I’m a geek, it’s kind of sad, really….

If the Twins have a catcher who is so close to being an impact player at the major league level (and who cost just $400,000 per year), should they have given such an expensive contract to Mauer? Because while it’s nice to talk about how the Twins aren’t a small market team or how this is such a good signing for baseball, the reality is that the Twins could have spent $23 million per year in a lot of ways.

Mauer’s contract doesn’t begin until next year, and we don’t know exactly how much free agents will cost then, but you can get a pretty good idea by looking at what was available this year.

You can start with the most highly sought (and paid) free agent on the market, Matt Holliday, who hit .313 with 24 HR and 109 RBI in 2009. He could replace Delmon Young in left field. Since Holliday only costs $17 million this year, the Twins could add a third baseman, like Placido Polanco ($6M). So you have Holliday, Polanco and Ramos in the lineup instead of Mauer, Delmon and Punto. Would you make that trade?

Or maybe you would like some insurance in case Ramos struggles. Well, you could bring in Ivan Rodriguez, who signed for $3 million per year, to mentor Ramos. Then you could bring in Jason Bay (.267, 36 HR, 119 RBI) for $15M to play left field, add Mark DeRosa to play third base ($6M). (That totals $24 million, but you can save a few million by getting rid of Young.) So Pudge, Bay, DeRosa and Ramos - or Mauer.

You want a closer instead? There weren’t any who signed for more than $7 million per year, so go ahead and sign three of them. Another starting pitcher? Other than John Lackey and Andy Pettitte, you could get any of them for $10 million apiece. Take two and grab Pudge to fill out the battery. Or mix and match. If you want to see all the salaries, check out ESPN’s free agent tracker.

Between this post, some of my KFAN appearances and my post a few weeks ago, I’m sure I’m going to be labeled as someone who hates Joe Mauer. Nothing could be further from the truth, as I remain convinced we’ll see him joust with the .400 barrier some August before this contract is over. I don’t even hate the contract. But I don’t love it, and I find the juxtaposition between the excitement about Ramos and the necessity to sign Mauer fascinating.

Remember back when supporting a new ballpark meant that you hated kids? Well, now you have your chance to love both. If you’re looking for some cool Target Field Collectibles and like supporting Make-A-Wish Foundation of Minnesota, check out this commemorative baseball or this commemorative plaque. You can find more details about it here.

Speaking of Target Field, Dean Carlson provides a nice tribute to Shane Nackerud of Greet Machine. Back in the day, Shane was my go-to guy on all stadium news and we put together a fun board game in GameDay that illustrated the road the bill needed to take. He really was instrumental in publicly tracking legislators stands on the stadium.

Target Field Collectible and Make-a-Wish

Bob Ibach, a friend of mine who raises money for Make-a-Wish, forwarded this along to those of you that might be interested. I gotta say - the plaque sounds pretty cool. I've gone out an located the items on the site listed below. You can buy the ball here and the plaque here .

Oh, and check back later tonight for my first post following a week long vacation.

--------------------------

For Immediate Release
Contacts: Bob Ibach (847-922-6686 or 941-312-4588)
Make-A-Wish Foundation of Minnesota: Jean Carlson (612-767-2764)

Only 5,000 Inaugural Season Baseballs to Be Produced

First Game at Twins New Ballpark
Signals New Era of Outdoor Baseball in Minnesota
Make-A-Wish Foundation® of Minnesota Will Also Benefit

Minneapolis – Finally a ballpark to call their very own.

When the Twins christen Target Field on Monday, April 12, against the visiting Boston Red Sox, it will mark the first time that the home team will be playing in a facility built ONLY for them. The Twins first home years ago, Metropolitan Stadium, was originally a minor league ballpark and the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome the past 28 seasons also served as a football stadium.

This is the sixth ballpark in franchise history since its start as the Washington Senators and the 39,504 seat open-air ballpark in the Warehouse District north of downtown Minneapolis between 5th and 7th Streets promises to be one of the best parks in all of baseball. The park was built by the same group that constructed Oriole Park at Camden Yards, PNC Park in Pittsburgh and AT&T Park in San Francisco—all considered among the elite sites in major league baseball.

To celebrate this great moment in Minnesota sports history, and to also raise awareness and money for the Make-A-Wish Foundation® of Minnesota, which grants wishes to children with life-threatening medical conditions, Nikco Sports announced a program that will allow Twins fans to own a unique piece of history.

A limited edition baseball featuring a stunning color photo of the new Target Field on one of the panels, and important historic information printed on the other panels, along with the official Inaugural Season logo is being produced to commemorate the first game at the new ballpark on April 12. Only 5,000 baseballs will be made, priced at $39.95, and each comes with a handsome acrylic display case. From each sale, $4 will go to the Make-A-Wish Foundation of Minnesota.

In addition, a limited edition framed photo plaque that features a picture of the new Target Field, along with a special inset photo of Twins All-Star catcher and fan favorite Joe Mauer and a piece of actual dirt from the ballpark’s new infield will also be made available to fans. Only 2,010 double matted photos will be produced, and each comes with an engraved nameplate. It is priced at $89.95. Fans can order either commemorative at 1-800-345-2868 or by visiting www.nikcosports.com.

In recent years, Nikco Sports has raised more than $1.7 million for children’s charities, including several projects in Minnesota.

One panel on the Inaugural Season Target Field baseball will feature a colorful panoramic shot of the new facility that captures the essence of the outdoor playing field. The official Inaugural Season stadium logo is positioned on another panel. A third panel lists the championship history of the franchise, including the three World Series titles won in 1991, 1987 and 1924 when the team was in Washington. It also lists the six American League pennants (1991, 1987, 1965, 1933, 1925 and 1924) along with Central Division/Western Division crowns.

A separate panel contains information on the new ballpark, including capacity, (39,504), the date of groundbreaking (2007), the April 12 first game date against Boston, and the field dimensions to left, center and right.

The framed and double matted photo plaque measures 15 x 17 inches and will feature a colorful stadium shot in the center. Along the bottom left of the presentation is an action shot of Joe Mauer and to the right is an engraved nameplate and a small capsule of dirt that is authenticated and taken from the Target Field infield under MLB supervision.

“Twins fans have eagerly waited for this historic ballpark opening for quite some time, and this is something every Twins fan will want to celebrate and remember,” noted Nikco Sports CEO and president Craig Bidner. We hope this will be a moment for Twins fans to remember for years to come, and also advance the funds for the Make-A-Wish Foundation® of Minnesota as they continue to help youngsters who have life-threatening medical conditions.”

Many of Nikco Sports’ projects have honored amateur and professional teams (Super Bowl, World Series, NBA, NHL, NASCAR and NCAA) and have recognized some of the greatest athletes such as (baseball) Ozzie Smith, Kirby Puckett, Ryne Sandberg, Randy Johnson, Ichiro, Paul Molitor, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Cal Ripken, Jr., Jim Thome, Adam Dunne, Nolan Ryan, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Edgar Martinez; (football) Peyton Manning, John Elway, Dan Marino, Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Jerome Bettis, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Emmitt Smith and Kurt Warner; (basketball) Magic Johnson, LeBron James, John Stockton, David Robinson, Michael Jordan and Isiah Thomas; (motor sports) Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt and Dale Earnhardt, Jr.; (hockey) Brett Hull; (golf) Tiger Woods.

About the Make-A-Wish Foundation
The Make-A-Wish Foundation® grants wishes to children with life-threatening medical conditions to enrich the human experience with hope, strength and joy. First started in 1980 when a group of caring individuals helped a young boy fulfill his dream of becoming a police officer, the Foundation is now the largest wish-granting charity in the world, with 65 chapters in the U.S. and its territories. With the help of generous donors and nearly 25,000 volunteers, the Make-A-Wish Foundation grants more than 12,600 wishes a year and has granted more than 168,000 wishes in the U.S. since inception.

The 7th Bullpen Spot

I can't make it to spring training this year, which is KILLING me. Instead I'm left taking a look at box scores, occasionally listening to games and reviewing rosters to try and figure out what it going on from 1718 miles away.

I'm missing some drama this year. The 7th bullpen spot had become interesting in sort of a car crash kind of way. The top six spots seem to be pretty well taken....

RH Middle Relievers - Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Pat Neshek
LH Middle Reliever - Jose Mijares
Mop Up Guy - Clay Condrey

Condrey has had a miserable spring, giving up another three hits in an inning yesterday, which is a cause for concern. The fact that he's out of options virtually guarantees him a roster spot, especially because there don't seem to be any candidates to replace him. In fact, there don't even seem to be any candidates to JOIN him, let alone replace him, which brings us back to that seventh spot.

I think the top guy on the wish list was Brian Duensing, mostly because he was left-handed, but partly because he really should be rewarded for being one of the best starting pitchers over the last couple months last year. But he's given up 12 hits in seven innings, including four more in three innings on Sunday. If he's healthy, he'll probably get another chance tomorrow, but there aren't a lot of chances left.

Glen Perkins is also left-handed, and was also in camp to supposedly compete for a spot. But his ERA is 9.00 and that's because he's given up 14 hits in seven innings. And now he's hurt with a back strain from working out. That's funny because I think I just read that an important deadline just passed. The reason the Twins sent Danny Valencia out of camp this weekend was because any player on the 40-man roster who is injured in Spring Training and still injured on Opening Day must be put on the DL.

Perkins is on the 40-man roster too. And if he goes on the DL, he gains service time. Coincidentally, Perkins missed being arbitration eligible (and thus probably an extra million dollars in salary) by about three days of service time last year, and was pissed enough about it to file a case against the Twins. And now he has a back injury that could be worth a dozen or so days of service time. Huh. Isn't that a happy little coincidence?

There are a bunch of other former right-handed starters that could have taken this place too, like Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship, but they also have had terrible springs. Which brings us to the final candidates:

The one everyone is talking about it Anthony Slama, because we've followed him so long. It doesn't hurt that he has put up such filthy numbers in the lower levels of the minors and has struck out nine guys in five innings this spring. But he's right-handed, and hasn't seen much in the way of major league batters yet.

The guy that nobody seems to be talking about is Mike Maroth, who is left-handed, a veteran, and has a 3.38 ERA this spring. Of course, he's also trying to restart a major league career and has struck out just on guy the entire spring. But he did precede Slama in yesterday's game and get through a scoreless inning. Maroth and Slama look like the two top candidates to me.

(Ron Mahay, the left-handed reliever who the Twins signed yesterday, is not. But he might be ready by the end of April as an insurance policy.)

The name that won't go away is Francisco Liriano, who has been silly good this spring, striking out 16 and walking just one in 10 innings pitched. It sounds like manager Ron Gardenhire keeps bringing up his name as a closer option and I wonder if we aren't seen a little stand-off between him and GM Bill Smith.

Gardenhire wants a closer, and wants Smith to get him one. The talk about Liriano closing might be nothing more than a vague threat in case Gardy doesn't get his way. He may not get to choose exactly who is on his 25-man roster, but he sure as hell gets to decide what to do with them when they're there. And if he needs to lose an ace starter to prove his point about wanting a closer, he just might be that crazy....

I don't think he is that crazy, and I think he has plenty of other options. Liriano will stay in the rotation even though Bill Smith stands pat. Duensing will get the last spot if he finds himself on Friday or next Wednesday. In the meantime, Slama and Maroth will be pitted in a competition to take the spot if Duensing can't pull it together.

Or at least that's how things look from 1718 miles away.

Catchers and MVPs

I've just been doing a little research on historically great catchers, and I've got to tell you, I'm a little blown away by what I'm finding. We sort of generally refer to Joe Mauer as having a chance to be one of the best catchers ever. And he could be, but there are sure some remarkable catchers in baseball history.

Take MVP awards for instance, which is an area where Mauer should already compare favorably. After all, he's only 26 and has already won once and finished in the top six in voting three times. But look at the top seven guys that Bill James identifies as the best major league catchers in his Historical Baseball Abstract:

• Bill Dickey, who played for the Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig Yankees (and batted in the middle of that lineup) never won an MVP but finished in the top ten five times. And he finished in the top 20 ten times.
• Carleton Fisk (Red Sox in 70s, White Sox in 80s) also never won but finished in the top 4 four times.
• Mike Piazza never won, but finished in the top ten seven times. And finished 13th and 14th two other times.

Those guys are good, but now we get to the heavy hitters:

• Mickey Cochrane, who led the Athletics to two World Series titles and then led Detroit to their first championship ever (as a player/manager in 1935) won two MVPs. He also finished 4th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 14th and 18th in other years.
• The Brooklyn Dodgers Roy Campanella only played for ten years due to the color barrier and an auto accident that left him paralyzed. But during those ten years he won three MVPs and got votes three other times.
• Johnny Bench of the 70s Big Red Machine won two MVP awards before he was 25 years old. In all he received votes during ten seasons.
• And not only did Yogi Berra win three MVP awards, but for eight straight years he never finished lower than fourth. He received votes in fifteen consecutive years. His Yankees teams of the late 40s and 50s also appeared in 14 World Series, and he won ten of them.
  

So keep at it Joe. There's still plenty of mountains to climb.

Joe's Contract & the Twins' Future

The Twins announced on Sunday that they had reached an agreement with Joe Mauer on an eight-year extension for $184 million, which Joe Christensen is reporting will be paid at $23 million per year. We'll get more details at 6:00 on Monday when a press conference is scheduled, but let’s tackle some questions that are popping up from Twins fans.

Woo-HOO!

Well, that’s more of an exclamation than a question, but I totally concur. Woo-hoo indeed.

One of the things that baseball analysts struggle with is what a truly elite player is worth. Can you make up for their value with other, cheaper combinations of players and still be a championship-caliber team? I don’t know the answer, and I don’t care. Here’s what I care about: watching an elite player, maybe even historically elite, for the next nine years. Again, woo-hoo!

Why nine years? I thought it was an eight-year contract?

It’s an eight-year contract extension, not an eight-year contract. Mauer had a contract through this year and the contract extension was announced to go through the 2018 season, at which point Mauer will be 35 years old.

So we have him locked up for nine years?

Maybe, maybe not. We’ll hopefully find out tomorrow if there is an opt-out clause for Mauer at some point during the contract. That’s happened in some recent contracts, like last year’s deal for C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia can opt out of his seven-year deal with the Yankees next year, when it’s only three years old.

This kind of a clause is usually justified as protection for the player if salaries skyrocket. If Mauer and his agent think they already gave a hometown discount, they might regard that as important protection. Plus, with Mauer only being 26 years old, an opt-out clause after four years might allow him to be on the market when he’s 30, which is young enough to justify another longer deal. Like I said, hopefully this will be answered in tomorrow’s press conference.

Did Mauer give a hometown discount?

If so, it doesn’t appear to be a very big one, just like his last two deals with the Twins. The biggest recent contract for a hitter came a year ago, when first baseman Mark Teixeira signed an eight-year deal with the Yankees that paid him an average of $22.5 million per year. Mauer’s deal is just a little richer than that. One could argue that if he became a free agent, Mauer would have exceeded that contract since he’s both younger and a catcher. On the other hand, Teixera has averaged 35 HR and 114 RBI over his seven-year career, numbers Mauer has never
reached in any season.

Would a bidding war between the Yankees, Red Sox or Mets have driven up the number higher than that? Maybe. Of course, Mauer would have had to wait another year, staying healthy and putting up huge numbers again to find out. Instead, he’s guaranteed the money either way now.

What if he gets hurt or can’t stay at catcher?

The money is guaranteed, so he’ll get it one way or the other. The Twins could take out insurance on it to help protect themselves, but that insurance costs money too, so it likely won’t be for the full amount. And if Mauer can play at a position other than catcher, the insurance wouldn’t help.

A lot of the money Mauer is attached to him playing catcher. This offseason, the next biggest contract was signed by Matt Holliday, who returned to the St. Louis Cardinals. He signed a (much criticized) seven-year, $120 million deal, which averages out to about $17 million per year.

Holliday puts up about 25-30 homer runs per year and has a career batting average of .318. Mauer showed similar power last year and has a career batting average of .327. Holliday isn’t quite the hitter that Mauer is, but he’s close. However, as a left-fielder, Holliday is making about $6 million less per year.

So if Mauer needs to move out from behind the dish, but he still continues to hit, the Twins will be stuck paying about $4-5 million too much for him every year. That’s not terrible, provided he’s still producing offensively.

Does this mean the Twins won’t have any money to spend on other players this year?

Again, Mauer had a contract through this year for $12.5 million and it sounds like that stays intact, so this deal probably doesn’t affect this year’s money much. If there was a signing bonus, then it would affect this year’s money. However, the last deal Mauer signed did not have a signing bonus, and it’s pretty unlikely he needs the money right away.

This could be significant, because the Twins also announced yesterday that Joe Nathan will undergo Tommy John surgery as soon as he can. It was reported last week that over half of Nathan’s salary this year could be insured, meaning the Twins might have $6 million to spend that they didn’t think they would have. That could come in handy when looking for a closer or at the trade deadline.

Is any of the $184 million deferred, like Sid Hartman suggested?

We don’t know. Initial indications are that it’s not. I’ll say this – if Mauer wants to make sure he’s paid market rate AND make the Twins as competitive as he can over the next eight years, it would makes sense for him to demand that a big chunk of that money be deferred.

If you’ll indulge me in some over-the-top speculation, what if Mauer asked that $10 million of each year’s salary be deferred? The Twins would have $10 million more to spend on their team those years. Mauer gets his money, but he also benefits from playing on a team with an artificially higher payroll.

Of course, the fiscally conservative Twins might not be crazy about penalizing the 2020 team to subsidize the 2012 team. And they could be really worried that other stars like Justin Morneau would see this as a viable alternative for their own future negotiations. Again, I hope we’ll find out more about this on Monday.

Is $23 million per year too much? Will it cripple the Twins?

The one question I never heard anyone answer throughout this contract negotiation was “How much is too much?” I’d like to be critical of that, but I don’t have an answer either.

So let’s see what this is going to do to payroll for the Twins the next couple of years, assuming that the breakdown is $23 million per year as Joe Christensen reported. So on the right are some back-of-the-napkin figures for 2011….

That’s tight. The Twins would have a payroll of about $94 million with spots to fill in their rotation, at second base, and in their bullpen. Payroll next year would probably be close to $100 million, so that leaves about $6 million to spend. They would need to fill most spots with youngsters and possibly spend on one lower-tier free agent. (Or, sigh, Nick Punto.)

I’d like to show you 2012, but things get really fuzzy by then. Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and JJ Hardy could all be free agents. Francisco Liriano and Delmon Young could either be very expensive or gone. Nathan’s salary comes off the books. I compute a payroll of just $58 million or so, but we also have a tremendous number of open positions. The bottom line is that it’s just too far away to do any realistic analysis on it.

What’s clear is that the Twins will need to rely on their farm system to provide help to cover contracts like this. Fortunately, that’s not just an economic reality; it’s a philosophical tenet of the organization. It’s what the organization has believed and done for the last ten years.

So no, I don’t think it cripples the Twins. But it does likely mean that spending on free agents in the next decade could look an awful lot like it did last decade. This was a great offseason for the Twins and their fans. I hope you are enjoying it, because we likely won’t see another like it for another nine years.

(Image courtesy of Keith Allison)

Rewriting History

A Review of The End of Baseball by Peter Schilling Jr.

By Chrissie Bonnes

(Editor's note: This was originally run a couple of years ago when Peter's book came out in hardback. I'm rerunning it because this week the book is being re-released in paperback. It deserves every sale it gets, and Twins Geek's readers deserve to know about it.)

I’m a rabid baseball fan only when one of my two favorite teams is playing, so I wondered if I was the best candidate to review Peter Schilling, Jr.’s historical baseball novel The End of Baseball. Luckily, Mr. Schilling worked himself into a hitter’s count by basing most of the action in the hometown of one of my two favorite teams, Philadelphia. He then proceeded to hit one out of the park.

The premise, according to the author, is based in fact. Bill Veeck, freshly wounded in World War II, had the brainstorm of buying a big league team and, to turn a profit, integrating baseball all at once rather than one player at a time. Schilling has Veeck take that action, buying the Philadelphia A’s and fielding a team composed solely of the best players from the Negro Leagues.

The fact that I am not the target market for this novel became clear early on during an action-movie-esque chapter describing a scouting expedition to a less than democratic island nation. Though it may be too early to discuss movie rights, it seems the role of the scout was written for Harrison Ford at his Indiana Jones best. Though the scout was slightly less dashing than Harrison Ford, it’ll be a few years before the movie version comes out, and Han Solo isn’t getting any younger.

My early reservations about plowing through a baseball book written by a man for male readers were quickly set aside. The detail paid to each character, making each unique, and making many both hero and villain, will mesmerize any reader. So often, an author is unable to separate his own voice from that of his characters’, resulting in a homogenous cast, providing pleasant enough company on the ride and trading clever barbs. Here, each character has a unique voice, his own character traits, and his own view of every situation.

For instance, we see a player walk the streets of Detroit with a cousin who witnessed the city’s race riots. As the events that shaped the player’s past and contributed to his determination become clear, he becomes so much more than one of the pitchers in the A’s rotation. This player has his own “Invincible” moment, when he “ran into himself,” in the form of a stickball game, Detroit versus Philadelphia. As if it wasn’t already obvious, the reader sees that the player knows this is bigger than him. And though this novel is not at all bogged down by stats, their importance to some players is vividly depicted: “His brain housed a twenty-story accounting firm of little Satchels, all of whom scribbled ledger after ledger of his statistics, feats, and – tucked in a black folder and filed away – his mistakes.”

Not that clever one-liners are absent. The sometimes tense, sometimes deathly serious moments are balanced by genuine humor. On baseball’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night, one of the A’s faithful is about to become the lucky recipient of myriad prizes bestowed upon him by a pair of bathing beauties. “There were cases of Ballantine Ale and Moxie soda pop, six giant cans of Hershey’s chocolate syrup, a box of Phillies blunt cigars, five robust hams, a midget bearing a gift certificate for forty gallons of gas, an Underwood typewriter...and, topping this all off, pushed in a wheelbarrow by a circus strongman, a pile of five hundred silver dollars, which rolled up between the leggy women.” Despite the eye-popping array of luxuries and beauty, all the fan can think is “…look at all that ham.”

But don’t worry; this is far from chick lit. The action keeps coming, and Schilling throws plenty of curves. Some twists in plot are subtly foreshadowed. Some, like the barstool that inexplicably appears in a street brawl, come out of left field (if you’ll pardon one more baseball pun). Some are introduced quickly and are either resolved just as quickly, or become a recurring theme. Some seem almost like an aside, or a cameo, emerging later as integral to the plot. Some are nothing more than red herring, leaving this reader scratching her head. The result is an unexpected, thoroughly enjoyable ride with a wholly satisfying but not predictable conclusion.

The title The End of Baseball is, of course, a common refrain from baseball purists. Interleague play? A wild card? It’s the end of baseball! While baseball may no longer be “America’s Pastime,” it has survived many changes and challenges. When a sportswriter puts forth the theory that “war years were somehow recorded differently, in a separate ledger perhaps, records marked with an asterisk to separate them from the legitimate numbers of the hallowed greats,” readers will recall asterisk posters in the stands during the San Francisco Giants’ games last season (not to mention the earlier asterisk after the number 61). Similarly, when a sportswriter in the novel “called on Congress” to mediate an injustice, perceived or actual, readers will be reminded of current subpoenas and testimony on Capitol Hill. The fan can only hope that fears of “The End of Baseball” are again unfounded.

Though baseball fans will certainly love this book, particularly for the edge-of-seat, heart-pounding descriptions of on-field action, non-baseball fans will love the vivid imagery, the rich character depictions, and the reactions of those characters watching and listening to those same pitches and innings.

Chrissie Bonnes, aka The Voice of Reason, usually works more in the GameDay background, cooking for and cleaning up after the esteemed Editor and his children. But this one was right in her sweet spot. (Sorry. One more baseball pun.)

TwinsCentric Blog: Puzzling Contract

This is also published on the TwinsCentric Blog at StarTribune.com:

It’s getting to the point where it is becoming a crusade. I should probably do something about that.

We’ve seen the same scenario play out the past two weeks. The Twins offer a long-term contract to a popular player and are lauded by media and fans. The latest example, a five-year deal to Denard Span, was again roundly praised, despite it seemingly being a goofy contract for the team.

Is “goofy” too strong of a word? Let’s find out by playing out a scenario: what happens if the Twins DON’T offer this deal to Span? If they don’t do the deal, they can pay him almost whatever they want for the next two years. And for the three years after that, they can unilaterally renew his contract at the price an arbitrator sets.

I say "almost whatever they want" because there is a minimum and some precedent. This year and next year, Span would likely make about $1 million combined. Truth be told, he would probably make closer to $900,000 combined, but we’ll round up for the sake of argument.

In 2012, he would be up for arbitration for his first year. In arbitration, the player is paid a salary commensurate with his tenure in the big leagues and his performance. So let’s list the centerfielders who have tenure within a few years of Span and rank them by their OPS last year.

(OPS is On-base Plus Slugging percentage. It’s a REALLY good measure of a team’s ability to score runs. Since players also have those stats, it’s assumed it works well for them too. It also does a decent job of crediting (and comparing) both players who get on-base and players who hit for power.)

So here are the centerfielders, their tenure (expressed in "years.days"), their OPS, and how much they are making or have made in their first year of arbitration:

PLAYER	TEAM	OPS	Tenure	$(M)
Matt Kemp	LAD	0.842	3.049	4
Denard Span	MIN	0.807	1.111
Shane Victorino	PHI	0.803	4.092	3.125
Adam Jones	BAL	0.792	2.139	TBD
Cody Ross	FLA	0.79	4.058	2.22
Grady Sizemore	CLE	0.788	5.056	3
Nate McLouth	ATL/PIT	0.788	4.056	2
Curtis Granderson	DET	0.78	4.077	3.5
Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	0.77	2.037	TBD
Dexter Fowler	COL	0.77	1.027	TBD
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	0.764	3.08	2
Nyjer Morgan	WAS/PIT	0.757	1.12	TBD
Michael Bourn	HOU	0.738	3.028	2.4

First, you’ll notice that Span had a GREAT year last year as far as centerfielders go. He’s nearly at the top of the list, though he’s much closer to that bunch of guys behind him than the guy on top. You might also notice that very few guys with less than three years of service time currently have contracts that cover their arbitration years.

Based on this, how much would an arbitrator say you need to pay him? It looks to be around $3 million, maybe as much as $3.25M, right? Ok, let’s do the same thing for the second year of arbitration. This time I’ll leave off the guys who don’t have contracts yet:

PLAYER	TEAM	OPS	Tenure	$(M)
Matt Kemp	LAD	0.842	3.049	6.95
Denard Span	MIN	0.807	1.111
Shane Victorino	PHI	0.803	4.092	5
Cody Ross	FLA	0.79	4.058	4.45
Grady Sizemore	CLE	0.788	5.056	4.6
Nate McLouth	ATL/PIT	0.788	4.056	4.5
Curtis Granderson	DET	0.78	4.077	5.5
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	0.764	3.08	4

Again, the answer seems pretty clear: somewhere around $5 million. Let’s be generous and say $5.25 million

And for year three, here’s how things look:

PLAYER	TEAM	OPS	Tenure	$(M)
Denard Span	MIN	0.807	1.111
Shane Victorino	PHI	0.803	4.092	7.5
Grady Sizemore	CLE	0.788	5.056	5.6
Nate McLouth	ATL/PIT	0.788	4.056	6.5
Curtis Granderson	DET	0.78	4.077	8.25
Franklin Gutierrez	SEA	0.764	3.08	5.5

This one is a little harder, but the $7.5 million that Victorino is making is a pretty good benchmark. We’ll run with that.

So if you add up those salaries, we can reasonably expect him to be paid $17 million over the next five years. That’s what happens if the Twins pay him on a year-by-year basis, making sure he continues to perform and stay healthy. Instead they handed him five years of guaranteed money for $16.5 million?

It’s like a bad informercial. Buy now and you can save $500,000? Really? Are operators standing by, too?

For some reason, long-term contracts equal success in everyone’s heads. It’s praised when it’s done for players like Span or for Joe Mays. More stunningly, it’s praised even after disasters like Joe Mays. But even for sure bets like Span, it doesn’t make sense unless there are some big savings involved.

And Span is a quality player. There has not been a more consistent supporter of Denard Span for the past 2+ years, than me. (Don’t believe me? Check this out. I was a voice in the wilderness, gently mocked for suggesting that Span had turned a corner two years ago.)

I believe Denard Span has been an absolute force. I expect him to continue to be a force. His skill set (with the possible exception of his speed) should hold up reasonably well over the next five years. I believe he’ll be able to handle the temptations that come along with long-term security. And by all accounts, including my personal experience, he’s a legitimately good guy who deserves every good thing that comes his way.

But it’s still goofy to give a player a five-year deal when you have the option of instead giving him five one-year deals. And that’s exactly what the Twins just did. The only reason you do that is if you get significant discounts back in return, and the Twins didn’t.

So what’s going on? I asked several people this weekend, and here are the theories I heard:

1. The Twins got an option year to buy out Span’s first year of free agency as part of the deal. It should be pointed out that it isn’t a cheap option ($9M) and so it’s not a slam dunk they’ll exercise it. But it is a benefit.

2. Mr. Rihanna (Matt Kemp) scares the heck out of them. He may try to force the market much higher though arbitration. There is a benefit in having some cost certainty, in protecting the team from a skyrocketing market.

3. Similar to #2, only ALL teams are worried. MLB teams are worried in general about players driving up salaries through the arbitration process and so there is some pressure to sign deals like this even if there isn’t much cost savings.

4. The Pohlads are positioning the team for a sale in a few years, and these kind of deals make a sale more possible.

They’re all nice theories, and none of them mean a thing because I didn’t ask the people I should have asked – the Twins. I’ll see what I can do in that regard later this week, before this becomes any more of a crusade.

---

I had a fantastic time at the TwinsCentric Twins Viewing Party on Saturday, with one exception.

• We had a very good crowd. Fifty-five people entered the raffle, and we had at least another 10-15 who were there but didn’t want to be in the raffle. That makes 65-70 people, some who came up from Iowa and even from Chicago.


• It started at 11 AM and there were still people there when I left at 6:00, so I'm pretty sure others had a good time too.


• I got to meet a ton of people, some old friends and some new. I’m hesitant to try and list all the writers there because I really don’t want to leave anyone out, but I’ll take a shot: Seth, Nick, Parker, Doogie, Phil MIller, Karlee, Babs, Josh, Andrew, Eric, Scott, k-bro, Roger, Emily and Betsy. And PMac was there in spirit, or rather spirits; he called and bought us a round of shots. Again, if I'm forgetting to mention someone, I apologize, especially becaue I made everyone wear nametags.


• The only bummer was a Twins loss. To the Phillies. My wife's favorite team. I only have one bet on any spring training game and this was it. Now she can make me watch (500) Days of Summer. I'm blaming you, Matt Tolbert.


• Thanks to everyone for showing up and thanks to Major's in Apple Valley for the cheap beer and eats. They were very kind and accomodating. The consensus opinion was that we should do this several times per year, and I agree. Of course, that's the consensus opinion every spring, but I'm hopeful that more places like Major's will step up to sponsor us, and we'll do as many as one per month.

TwinsCentric Blog: There's Always Room for Punto

Hi gang, I just realized I never put a link here. Thursday's post was over at the TwinsCentric Blog at StarTribune.com. It's called There's Always Room for Punto.

Nathan News: Magic 8 Ball Edition

Here's a quick Twins Geek post at the StarTribune.com TwinsCentric blog concerning the news that Nathan has a significant tear of the ulnar ligament in his elbow.

Catching Up

Hey gang, let's use today's post to catch up on some stuff.

TwinsCentric Viewing Party
I gotta jump on this first, because I keep forgetting to talk about it.

This Saturday, starting at noon, is the TwinsCentric viewing party at Major's in Apple Valley (map). I'll be there rooting for the Twins and The Voice of Reason will be there rooting for the Phillies. More importantly, Nick Nelson, Seth Stohs and Parker Hageman will be there along with a litany of other characters. We're expecting a good-sized crowd, and we'll watch the spring training game in a section just for the blogger faithful. We'll have two-for-one appetizers and $2 pints and door prizes that include tickets to Target Field, Maple Street Press Twins Annuals and various other prizes we'll announce throughout the week.

I can't state this strongly enough - I am absolutely giddy about this. I've been waiting since October for a good baseball get-together. We've had a long (and eventful) offseason to catch up. I would like nothing better than to plant my butt on a bar stool and talk baseball for 12 hours. Everything is in play. I'm ruling nothing out. So please, figure out a way to join us.

Contract for Slowey
One thing I overlooked in yesterday's story about the Nick Blackburn contract is that Kevin Slowey in in a very similar position. He enters the season with just one year before arbitration, which puts him in the sweet spot for this kind of a deal. Plus, just looking at peripheral stats like K/9 or H/9, he's at least as promising a candidate as Blackburn.

Oh - except for that "two-screws-in-his-wrist" thing. Slowey underwent surgery last year to fix a wrist problem that has bothered him since September of 2008 and there are no guarantees for him. But if he looks good in spring training, or performs well early in the year, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Twins offer him a similar deal.

And strangely enough, even though he has been nowhere near as reliable as Blackburn has been, I'd be a lot more supportive than I was yesterday. That's strange (and some would say misguided), but true.

Comment of the Day
Wow. You guys blew me away with all the comments and debate yesterday. Good job by you. It was tough to pick a favorite...

...but I'm going to go with JK:

Blackburn needs to produce 6 WAR in 2011, 12, 13 for this to be a breakeven deal. He's probably got a range of 3 to 9 WAR for that time period. Worst case they overspend by $7M. Best case they save $7M.

I'm not crazy about the WAR reference because it means nothing to 97% of all people, but I like the overall attack plan. The way to support this deal, I think, is on a purely financial basis. Show me why it's important that the Twins save that money. This is a step in that direction.

Poor Span
There were other good comments too, several of which wondered why Denard Span hasn't received a similar deal. And the answer is: because Denard is screwed by his service time. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, he only has one year and 111 days of service time, which means that he's not going to be arbitration-eligible until 2012. So the Twins have at least one more offseason to make any kind of strong push for a long-term deal with him. I'm betting it gets done, and I bet it is a pretty long deal. Which makes me happy.

Other Comment of the Day
I forgot to pick my favorite comment about my Vegas Over/Under story on Friday. It comes from neckrolls:

The new PECOTA definitely has some kinks to work out. On the Twins' depth chart, Jeff Manship is counted twice. That explains why every other team is projected to throw 1457 IP (reasonably close to last year's MLB average of 1442 IP), but the Twins are projected to throw 1497.

Take away the extra 40 IP of Manship, and the Twins' depth chart starts to make more sense. That extra 40 IP from Manship is projected at a 5.22 ERA, resulting in about 23 extra ER. Subtract those 23 R from the Twins present total of 801 RA (a preposterous number - the Twins haven't come within 35 R of 800 allowed in the Gardy era) and you get 778 RA to go with 796 RS. That differential gives you a first-order pythagorean record of 83-79 - right in line with Vegas.

I'll take the over.

Love it. First, I had heard rumblings that PECOTA was a bit messed up and that BP was trying to fix it and I love that this verifies that. I love that there are specific errors documented, and I love the historical reference as proof. And I love the word "preposterous," which I don't use nearly enough. I love this comment. I love it so much I'd see it twice in the same weekend, even though we just met.

Target Field Accessibility
There's a relatively new Twins blog called Two Men On with a slightly different focus - the accessibility of Target Field. It sounds like the the bloggers - Sam and Michael, who are teenagers and both use wheelchairs - have a tour of the ballpark coming up and want everyone's list of desired amenities. For those of you interested in providing your list, swing by and offer up your ideas.

The Nathan Injury
I'll be honest - I don't want to talk about this until we know something. Not because it's disrespectful, but just because I'm lazy, and this is a monster topic. Stay tuned.

KFAN
I'll be on KFAN's The Powertrip show this morning at 7:20 AM. You can listen in at 1130 AM or you can stream it.

Seth's Prospect Handbook
Last but not least I wanted to mention that Seth's Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook is out and available. Seth has really stepped up the variety, content and look of this compared to last year's thorough offering, and I can testify that it damn near killed him. This is the sort of gem that doesn't last for long. Buy it while you can here.

Well, that's more than enough for a weeknight. Good night folks.

Twins Risk Getting (Black)-Burned

Minnesota Twins announce they have come to an agreement with RHP Nick Blackburn on a 4-year, $14 million contract with an option for 2014.

Sometimes you need to make a move for more than just financial reasons. Sometimes you do it to avoid risk, or to put your team in a position to compete. Sometimes you do it to go that extra mile, or to signal to the league or your fan base that things have changed. And sometimes you do it because you just plain like a player and what he's done.

This should NOT have been one of those times.

I think it's fair to say, among the sabremetric set, I'm one of Blackburn's biggest believers. His critics throw the word "lucky" around a lot. They point to his low strikeout ratio, his high hit rate, and his mediocre groundball percentage. They look at his 4ish ERA and claim it will almost undoubtedly move the wrong way. They emphatically state that his luck is going to end.

And to that I say: so what? All of our luck is going to end. If he was lucky last year, and he was lucky the year before, who is to say that he won't be lucky again next year, and the next year, and the next?

The game is a game. There are infinite ways to play and win. We get so caught up in our own ability to identify the prototypical high upside power pitcher that we don't appreciate a guy who gets it done any other way. And Blackburn has unquestionably gotten the job done over the last two years, legitimately being the Twins best starting pitcher over that stretch. We should be celebrating this, not dreading the end of it.

So, to recap - I'm a Blackburn bobo. And I still don't like this deal.

To understand why, we need to understand the other option the Twins had. Blackburn is under their control for the next four years, regardless of whether they signed this deal or not. This year they could pay him whatever they wished. For each of the next three years, the Twins could have decided whether to offer arbitration to Blackburn, and then he would have been paid fair market value for a pitcher with his tenure and performance.

So one could take a look at what other pitchers with Blackburn's tenure and performance are making and have a pretty good idea, right now, what the Twins would have to pay Blackburn if they continued to retain him. The future would look something like this:

2010: $.7M
2011: ~$3M
2012: ~$6M
2013: ~$8M

And while we don't have a year-by-year breakdown of Blackburn's contract, a pretty good guess is that is looks like this:

2010: $.7M
2011: ~$2.8M
2012: ~$4.5M
2013: ~$6M

Which gets us back to why you do a deal like this. It has nothing to do with the guy, or the position your team is in, or sending signals to anyone. It only has to do with one thing: money.

Assuming the Twins were going to pay Blackburn for at least the next two years, they are risking about $10 million to potentially save about $4 million. I just don't think you can do that with a low strikeout pitcher. There's too much evidence that they aren't effective for a very long time.

And the Twins should KNOW this. They've done it twice recently. The first time was disastrous and the second time worked out better because the contract was shorter.

The shorter contract was with Carlos Silva, who agreed to a two-year deal with a third year option. Silva was great the first year and terrible the second year. The third-year option for $4 million was cheap enough that the Twins picked it up, Silva ate 200 innings with a 4.19 ERA and then signed his current deal with the Mariners. That worked out because the option year was just three years out.

But Blackburn's option year is five years out, which brings us to our second example: Joe Mays. Mays also had a low strikeout rate, a high hit rate, but had an incredible year in 2001, posting a 3.16 ERA over 232(!) innings. The Twins also signed him to a four-year deal with a fifth-year option for $20 million. (It was more than Blackburn's because Mays was already arbitration-eligible.)

Over the next four years, Mays pitched less than 400 innings, and posted a 5.81 ERA .

Mays' problems weren't necessarily related to his strikeout rate, as he struggled with injuries which included a reconstructive elbow surgery. But that's the point - there are already plenty of risks with young arms to worry about.

Given all those risks, there needs to be a compelling reason to sign a contract like this. And there just isn't one, just like there wasn't back on January 17th, 2002. I can practically copy and paste the conclusion:

I’m a Twins fan, and I hope I’m wrong about this. I hope Nick has a long and prosperous career. I hope executives in baseball circles laud Bill Smith for years to come. I even hope Jim Pohlad saves millions of dollars over the life of this contract. But from an impartial observer this looks like a $14M gamble on a somewhat questionable commodity that the Twins didn’t need to do.

Listening to Vegas

I hate the overrated/underrated game. You know how it goes: "such-and-such team is overrated/underrated" or "such-and-such team exceeded expectations." What I hate is that the standard is so nebulous. Give me something I can evaluate, like wins and losses.

For my money, the best standard for measuring expectations is the degenerate gamblers. Show me guys who have laid serious money on both sides of a number, and I'll show you guys who have done some homework. Which is why I made a point of sifting through some gambling sites tonight to see what the over/under wins number was for American League teams. (BTW, these are found at betus.com.)

AL West
Angels - 84.5
Rangers - 84.5
Mariners - 83.5
A's - 79.5

Here's why I'm glad I did this - because I already fell into the overrated/underrated trap. I've heard so many people tout the Mariners this year that I hinted six weeks ago that I think they're overrated. But 83.5 wins doesn't seem excessive. That feels about right for the Mariners.

By the way, if you're a big Baseball Prospectus PECOTA guy, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is. PECOTA states that the Angels should win about 76 games this year, or 8.5 games less than Vegas. It's the biggest spread between PECOTA and Vegas in the American League. Bet the "under" and double your money.

And for the record, I wouldn't touch that "under" bet with a 10 ft pole. The Angels won 97 games last year, and now we think they're going to win just 84? And PECOTA thinks they'll lose an extra 21 games this year?

AL East
Red Sox 94.5
Yankees 94.5
Rays 89.5
Orioles 73.5
Blue Jays 71.5

Here's a shocker - the wild card team is likely coming from the AL East. Vegas' money is ranking the Rays as the underdog, which isn't totally shocking considering all the money that pours in from the Northeast. For the record, PECOTA likes the Rays a couple games more than Vegas and the Yankees a couple of games less, making it a much closer race. I'd love that to be true. I'd love to see the Yankees miss the playoffs. I'm small and bitter that way.

Now let's get to the one you've all been waiting for...

AL Central
Twins 83.5
White Sox 82.5
Tigers 80.5
Indians 74.5
Royals 71.5

That's the order I would come up with too, with the Twins and White Sox a step or two ahead of the Tigers, and way ahead of the Indians and Royals. But I think Vegas is underestimating the spread between the top two teams and the rest of the division. Both of those teams feel like they're 90-win teams. It would truly be a sucker bet to parlay two "over" bets in the same division, but that would tempt me.

Instead, can I bet against PECOTA? It lists the Twins, White Sox AND Tigers as 80 win teams. If only BP would open a casino.

At StarTribune.com: That's What Everyone Says

I'm a little worried about the non-existent Mauer contract extension.

Bill Smith's Report Card

It's been a great offseason for the Twins, to be sure. But what was so great about it?

On Sunday Nick Nelson and I were Doogie Wolfson's guests on AM1500, and I found myself in the minority on the best offseason move. Here's how they grade out:

Re-signing Carl Pavano (Grade: B)
Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Offering arbitration to Pavano was almost a no-brainer, because he was either going to result in a good draft pick or a one-year deal. The latter happened and that's fortunate for the Twins, because there weren't a lot of starting pitchers on the market that would have been a good fit. (And the one who was a decent fit was represented by Scott Boras.)

Signing Orlando Hudson (Grade: B+)
This is the move that is being universally praised, and I'm part of that universe. But just because we had to wait for it doesn't mean it was the most valuable move. Hudson is a great fit who fills gaps at both second base and the second lineup spot. But he was part of a slew of middle infielders who would be good fits, including Felipe Lopez who signed earlier this week at 1/4 of Hudson's salary. I'm adding the "+" grade because there are plenty of indications that the Twins stretched beyond their pre-planned budget to make this happen. That's gutsy, and a good sign for the future.

Signing Jim Thome (Grade: B+)
You have to love a bench signing the simultaneously:
1. boosts offense,
2. provides some veteran leadership and
3. reminds Delmon Young that playing the game for money is a privilege, not a right.
To be fair, this kind of guy also isn't exactly rare. Jermaine Dye is still out there. So is Garret Anderson. You can argue that either would be a better fit than the left-handed hitting Thome. But I'm adding a "+" because adding a bench bat like Thome was a stretch goal, and they achieved it.

Trading for JJ Hardy (Grade A+)
If Hardy goes belly up - and he's certainly gone belly up a couple of times in his career - then I'm dead wrong. But the Hardy move was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.

Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.

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If you're up early tomorrow morning, I hope you'll turn the dial over to the Powertrip Morning Show on KFAN. I'll be talking Twins with the Hawkey, Sludge and the Superstar at 7:20 and pimping the Twins Annual. If you can't listen locally on the radio, you can listen through their website.

A Caddyshack Confession

So how bad is your baseball addiction?

It is said that the first step on the road to recovery is admitting that you have a problem, and that's what Sarah was trying to do over at Oh, It's THOSE Girls Baseball Blog on Friday. She asks for confessions:

It's time to confess the craziest and/or least socially-acceptable thing you've done for the love of baseball. Don't worry. This is a safe place. Unless you've out and out committed a felony or harmed a puppy, we won't judge.

And she gets them, including some doozies. It's well worth stopping by.

The thing is about being a Twins Geek is that there are no shortage of stories. I asked The Voice of Reason, and she came up with the same top two that I would've come up with, the second of which is the one I'll share today. Sarah, if you want to fire up a Nick Punto Day type blogging festival - #TrueBaseballConfessions or something like that - I'll fully support it and reveal the top one. It contains a quote that TVOR still pulls out on occasion to shame me.

But first, today's story...

It's 2002, and the Twins are making their first postseason appearance since 1991. I've been writing about them the whole year on the initial year of TwinsGeek.com, though I didn't have more than two dozen people reading it before the end of July. But I wasn't going to be able to attend the first two home playoff games because I was in Pennsylvania at my wife's friend's wedding.

In fact, there was some question about how much of Game Four I would get to watch, because it was scheduled DURING the wedding and reception. Game Four was an elimination game for the Twins, and various wedding events conspired against me being able to watch it. I went a little nuts, searching high and low for a TV in some god-forsaken country club, and finally found one in the caddyshack.

I was trying to walk an impossible line, watching as much of the game as I could while also trying to make appearances at the reception with my wife and her friends. In retrospect, it's pretty clear I failed. The final straw was loaded after dinner, when the dancing started. As her friends launched themselves onto the dance floor, I asked "Would you like to go dance?"

"Well, yeah," she replied, shocked that I would even offer.

"Great," I replied. "You go dance with your friends, and when you're done, I'll be in the caddyshack."

Not my finest hour.

But it did make for a pretty good story, recounting the adventure while quoting Caddyshack multiple times. (I've recently posted some of those old archives online, and you can find it here.)

But yeah, I have a story, also starring TVOR, that puts that story to shame. It'll need to wait until the next confession.

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Oh geez, I forgot to feature my favorite comment from Friday. It was an easy choice, from Beth:

August 25, 2005. (We decided we needed to know to celebrate the anniversary of Hor day.)

I am so glad I'm not the only person who remembers the day the recording skipped. A guy sitting with my group of friends said, "Those marketing people think of EVERYTHING. That'll get butts in the seats!"

I'm sure many people we tell think we made it up, but indeed, the recording skipped!

I love knowing this date. First because I feel validated. And second because my friends and I are now brainstorming how we're going to annually commemorate Hor day. I'm assuming (hoping? praying?) it's with hot dogs, and not, um...