Hey, if it doesn't need to make sense for them to publish it, then it sure as heck doesn't need to make sense for us to talk about it.
Some local and national sources reported yesterday that the Twins were talking to the Red Sox about a package of players and prospects for Johan Santana. The lists were remarkably consistent, with both of them reporting that Coco Crisp, Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie were included. They differed in the fourth player, though it hardly matters since they seem to basically be the same guy.
From a Twins fan's perspective, they were also consistent in that neither was nearly a good enough offer. Both substituted quantity for quality. Both plugged holes instead of provided championship caliber players, and they didn't even do that great of a job at plugging holes.
Or at least that was my impression at first glance. But it's fun to get acquainted with these guys, and it might be downright valuable in the near future. So let's get started:
Coco Crisp – Two years ago he was a cheap, 26-year-old center fielder with over 1500 major league at-bats with an above average bat. Now he’s a somewhat fragile 28-year-old center fielder with a below average bat and a two-year, $10.5 million contract.
So what will he be over the next two years? Well, he’s always had speed, providing around 20 stolen bases. He has some power, and can probably be penciled in for at least 10 home runs. His batting eye is pretty good, and the key is for him to hit around .300 like he did in 2004-2005 instead of the .260 he hit in 2006-2007.
To me that adds up to be a hole-filler, not a difference-maker. That’s not terribly unappealing when your other options are Denard Span or Jason Pridie. But nobody should be excited about getting Crisp.
Jon Lester – Well, we know he’s a cancer survivor. That’s important, because he’s quite a bit more valuable to the Twins than if he wasn’t. But other than being a young pitcher (he’s 23), I don’t know that much more about him, other than he’s not Clay Buchholz.
Turns out he’s left-handed, which is awfully nice, and he’s struck out 110 batter in his 144.1 innings in the majors so far, but that’s only been good for a 4.68 ERA. He put up some absolutely obscene numbers in AA-Portland a couple of years ago and has spent a little time in two season in the majors despite his bout with non-Hodgkins lymphoma.
He looks like a good young pitcher, possibly as high as a #2 guy. He’s not dissimilar to the cadre of young pitchers the Twins already have.
Jed Lowrie – The hidden player that the Twins are likely quietly lusting for. He’s 23 years old, but he’s also a Stanford alum who exploded through AA-Portland and AAA-Pawtucket last year. He moved from second to shortstop last year, though I haven’t seen any reviews of his defense.
But we know that he can hit. At both levels he hit about .300 and slugged about .500 (though it looks to be mostly doubles). His plate discipline slipped a bit at AAA, but it was still good for a .356 OBP. He only had 160 at-bats at AAA, so he would likely start the year in Rochester and be promoted in mid-June, like the Twins love to do.
Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson – We’ll put these guys together since they’re both pitchers who show promise but haven’t advanced beyond AA. They’re both right-handed, both have high strikeout rates (around 1 per IP) and were both born about the time I was losing my virginity. Hmmm. You know, that's not as depressing a thought as I thought it would be.
So the package includes a not inexpensive plug-in center fielder, a young #2 starter, a middle infielder who could be somewhere between above average and very special in a year, and starting pitcher who will find himself towards the middle of the Twins minor league depth chart.
That's better than I thought, mostly because of Lowrie. But it still means 2008 looks pretty ugly. The offense isn't much different, the pitching is likely worse, and the holes left to fill (particularly third base) can't be easily fixed.
We're beyond the point where where the Twins just need to get talent back. That talent needs to fit together like a big jigsaw puzzle. These rumored deals with the Red Sox doesn't get them there.
BTW, make sure you check out GameDay's Writers' Blog today. We have a special guest. And I don't know if you know it or not, but she's kind of a big deal.
Also, if you think you're getting all the info on the Delmon Young trade or the latest rumors/info about moving Johan, and you're not checking out MNGameDay.com, I think you're a sad little person. Seriously, I posted the above story last night at 9:00 PM, and I now count twelve posts since then. And it's the middle of the night.
I mean, honestly, you have some certifiable Twins writers out there, some of whom are super-talented like Nick Nelson, and all they ask for is a click or two. What else are you doing exactly?
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
The Magic 8-Ball Answers: The Tampa Bay Trade
OK, it's happened. And even if it wouldn't have, we could still talk about it. After all, this is the internet! If we're going to be lambasted by corporate media, we might as well have some fun with this stuff, right? And if we're going to be consulting our dubious sources we had better include Mattel's omniscient fortune teller. Enlighten us, oh dark one!
The man has some balls, that much is clear.
You never see a trade like this. Trading young talent for young talent is a challenge trade, virtually designed to get a guy fired. If Garza becomes a stud and Young tears up his knee, Smith is dead meat. Ditto if it goes the other way for Tampa Bay's executives.
And this is an aggressive move in other ways. By moving Garza, it's clear that Smith is more open to moving surplus talent at one position than Ryan was. He traded that asset which the organization has traditionally fawned over (starting pitching) and got back something that the organization needed (offense) even though it meant downgrading their defense. On this team, swimming upstream like that looks a lot like leadership.
And maybe more impressive is that we're again seeing a creative solution. By moving Bartlett, it looks like Smith recognizes surplus talent even when it isn't obvious to others. After all, for the last two years, Nick Punto has fielded like a shortstop and hit like a shortstop. Now he likely IS a shortstop, where he's not a liability. With him around, Bartlett became expendable, for the right player.
Q: Should I be excited about this trade?
A: Without a doubt.
And that's true whether you're a Twins fan or a Rays fan.
If you're a Twins fan, you came out with the best player in the trade, which isn't likely to happen again this offseason. Delmon Young is the kind of talent that can almost never be traded for - young, cheap and limitless. For instance, Young is more desirable than any player who has been mentioned in a possible deal for Johan Santana. You could make an argument that he is more desirable than any of the packages being offered. He's that good. If you can't get excited about getting Young, you probably also sleep in on Christmas morning.
Which doesn't mean this was a steal for the Twins. In fact, they probably come out a little behind on the deal in talent. On most GM's desirability scale, the players (including contracts, etc.,) probably rank like this:
1. Delmon Young
2. Matt Garza
3. Jason Bartlett
4. Eduardo Morlan
5. Branden Harris
6. Jason Pridie
I suspect I'll catch some grief for Harris' rank, but you need to recognize that prior to his performance this test he was viewed as Nick Punto without the glove. Over the last year, he looked considerably better that that, but so did Punto at this time last year.
What's more, the pieces the Rays receive fit their puzzle better than that Twins. This move give them the top-of-the-rotation starter they need, upgrades their shortstop both offensively and defensively, leverages their surplus of outfielders, and makes room for stud prospect Evan Longoria if Akinori Iwamura replaces Harris at second base. That franchise can sit on their hands for the next four months.
Q: Does this trade mean a trade for Johan Santana is more likely?
A: Cannot predict now.
Yesterday you heard both sides of the argument. One side would say if the Twins trade Garza, they couldn't afford to also trade Santana. Another side would say that the Twins traded Garza because interested teams were mostly offering pitchers.
But the bottom line is that this trade doesn't tie their hands either way. They currently still have a surplus of young pitching. Whether or not they trade Santana depends on what kind of offers they get for Santana, and nothing else.
However, they're sure going to be making some additional moves, because the pieces they received don't fit together too nicely. Delmon Young, despite playing 29 games in center field, is nothing more than insurance for the spot. He doesn't have the speed for the position. Branden Harris, despite playing 89 games at shortstop is thought of as a below average fielder at second base, let alone shortstop.
With this trade, the Twins essentially filled their DH position and opened up on in the infield. They still have plenty of work to do.
Q: Did the Twins blink at the last minute in this trade?
A: Signs point to yes.
Mid-afternoon yesterday this trade included Juan Rincon instead of Eduardo Morlan. But last night reports came out saying that the Rays had held up the deal due to concerns about Rincon's elbow and the deal was finalized shortly thereafter with Morlan in his place. Just yesterday Baseball Prospectus ranked Morlan as the fourth best prospect in the Twins system, and he'll likely play a role in the Rays bullpen in 2008. He could become dominant.
There may be some gnashing of teeth about this late change, and I'll agree that this is a slightly worse trade for the Twins. But it isn't a difference maker.
For starter, Rincon is better than you think. He finished fairly strong last year. Yes, his strikeout rate isn't what it used to be, but that's the case will all pitchers who have been in the league a few years. It's a reliable indicator for young pitchers coming into the majors. It isn't as effective judging veteran pitchers.
Also, even without Morlan, there is plenty of young talent to plug into the bullpen. The young starters that the Twins will have in AAA this year will still provide plenty of fuel for this year's bullpen, even without Morlan. And Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire have consistently shown that building a strong bullpen is something they can consistently do.
A: Signs point to yes.
Mid-afternoon yesterday this trade included Juan Rincon instead of Eduardo Morlan. But last night reports came out saying that the Rays had held up the deal due to concerns about Rincon's elbow and the deal was finalized shortly thereafter with Morlan in his place. Just yesterday Baseball Prospectus ranked Morlan as the fourth best prospect in the Twins system, and he'll likely play a role in the Rays bullpen in 2008. He could become dominant.
There may be some gnashing of teeth about this late change, and I'll agree that this is a slightly worse trade for the Twins. But it isn't a difference maker.
For starter, Rincon is better than you think. He finished fairly strong last year. Yes, his strikeout rate isn't what it used to be, but that's the case will all pitchers who have been in the league a few years. It's a reliable indicator for young pitchers coming into the majors. It isn't as effective judging veteran pitchers.
Also, even without Morlan, there is plenty of young talent to plug into the bullpen. The young starters that the Twins will have in AAA this year will still provide plenty of fuel for this year's bullpen, even without Morlan. And Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire have consistently shown that building a strong bullpen is something they can consistently do.
Finally, the $4 million that Rincon will cost next year isn't going to hurt the Twins offseason plans. The Twins still have $20 million to spend this offseason, and another $13.5 million if they move Santana. For a team that is allergic to long-term deals, that's an enormous amount of money.
Q: What do you think of Bill Smith so far?
A: Outlook good.
The man has some balls, that much is clear.
You never see a trade like this. Trading young talent for young talent is a challenge trade, virtually designed to get a guy fired. If Garza becomes a stud and Young tears up his knee, Smith is dead meat. Ditto if it goes the other way for Tampa Bay's executives.
And this is an aggressive move in other ways. By moving Garza, it's clear that Smith is more open to moving surplus talent at one position than Ryan was. He traded that asset which the organization has traditionally fawned over (starting pitching) and got back something that the organization needed (offense) even though it meant downgrading their defense. On this team, swimming upstream like that looks a lot like leadership.
And maybe more impressive is that we're again seeing a creative solution. By moving Bartlett, it looks like Smith recognizes surplus talent even when it isn't obvious to others. After all, for the last two years, Nick Punto has fielded like a shortstop and hit like a shortstop. Now he likely IS a shortstop, where he's not a liability. With him around, Bartlett became expendable, for the right player.
And Delmon Young looks an awful lot like the right player.
---------------------------
OK, that's it for tonight. I think I could write about 2000 more words tonight on this trade, but the 8-Ball is tired. Instead, I'll suggest that you head over to MNGameDay.com and check out the Twins Blogs and News feed in the lower left-hand corner. There will be lots of good stuff by people that deserve your attention. And I guarantee you'll get your fill of great info and Twins takes.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Sucking the Joy Out of a Santana Trade
This Santana thing is loads of fun, isn’t it?
The speculation, I mean. After all, that’s what we like to do in the offseason. And that’s especially true for us saberbloggers and rotogeeks, who are only too happy to show off our knowledge of minor leaguers and sleeper candidates. But the real appeal is that it fires up the imagination, both for the fans lusting for that shining star and for the fan base looking for that deal that rebuilds a title shot.
But it’s not likely to stay fun, not if you’re a Twins fan, and especially not for a Twins executive. A very thin and straight line is going to need to be walked due to the impact of the no-trade clause that Santana seemingly has until…when exactly? Most sources indicate that it’s until the end of his current contract, which is the worst possible news for the Twins. That no-trade clause significantly changes their leverage, and likely makes a lot of the speculated player packages out of reach.
The sad truth is that the Twins are in a tough position even if there wasn’t a no-trade clause. With Santana’s impending free agency, there are two ways this trade can go down. It can either be a straight trade, in which case the receiving team only gets Santana for one year. Or it can be a “sign and trade” which means the Twins and another team would make a trade contingent on the other team agreeing to a contract extension with Santana within 72 hours.
For both the Twins and a trading partner a straight trade makes very little sense. Nobody is likely to offer a monstrous rebuilding package for a single year of Santana. In fact, you could argue that Santana is worth more to the Twins next year, a contending team with a young pitching staff, than he is to any other team in the majors. There’s just very little common ground for a deal. That might change as the trade deadline approaches next season. Or it might not.
But from Santana’s standpoint, the sign and trade approach doesn’t make much sense. He is already very rich, and he’s going to get richer. A year from now he’ll be courted and have his choice of teams and incredible paydays. That will all probably happen whether he is traded or not. So from Santana’s standpoint, there is only one reason to sign a new deal – he’ll get his big contract a year earlier.
That’s not a totally trivial incentive for a player, and one might think it’s even more tempting for a pitcher, because they tend to be more fragile than position players. But one doesn’t become a major league ballplayer without being comfortable with risk. Virtually nothing is guaranteed for most of these guys for the first half dozen year of their professional career. Don’t expect them to get cold feet as they approach their big payday. Especially when they already have millions in the bank.
Believe it or not, that’s not the bad news. But we’re getting closer.
Because even if Santana is willing to sign with a specific team a year early, the moment that realization hits, Santana’s allegiances change. If he chooses the team he wishes to sign with, he can just refuse to sign with any other team. The Twins will be in a position of either accepting his choices for a sign and trade deal, or another team’s straight trade deal. It’s an uneven playing field.
And now we get to the bad news.
Because the Twins can’t even do that. They can’t get the minimum return they might receive if they trade Santana to a different team. They can’t send him somewhere at the trade deadline to a team desperate for an ace. Because of the no-trade clause they can’t do any of that without Santana’s approval, and once he settles on the team he wants, there is no point in granting that approval. The Twins will be in an “or-else” position with Santana’s chosen trading partner. And the only incentive the other team has for making the deal early is they’ll have Santana for some portion of next year.
So if you’re a team that wants Santana, what should your strategy be? Put together a list of killer talent to offer the Twins? Hell, no. The winning strategy is to lobby Santana without actually getting charged with MLB’s tampering charges. You can bet that some players from the Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are offering to take Johan on some vacations this winter.
And the Twins strategy? It sounds like they’re doing it:
Open negotiations and as part of those negotiations, get a counter-proposal. They desperately needed to have some idea of what Santana and his agent have in mind for money and what else he might be looking for. Now they need find a couple of teams that can fulfill those wishes and play them off against each other. In theory, if the Twins can find a team that satisfies Santana’s wishes, they at least have a decent chance that a deal will get done.
Keep this on the QT. The larger the media circus that surrounds this, the harder it will be to be to enforce the non-tampering rules, and that is the single most important strategy the Twins have. If Santana, who shouldn’t be talking to anyone, chooses a single team, the battle is lost.
Understand that the Twins have a no-trade clause, too. This is important in two ways. First, they don’t need to trade this guy, which theoretically puts them on even ground with Santana. If they don't make a deal, Santana will need to stay healthy and put up huge numbers for another year. There’s some leverage in that.
But it's equally important when talking to other teams. As they quietly approach potential trading partners, the Twins need to make it VERY clearn that if they even get a whiff that the other team is dealing with Santana directly, they're out. After all, the Twins have incentives to keep Santana too, like a chance at winning in 2008 and the draft picks that will come back as compensation if he walks as a free agent.
This is a tough situation for the Twins. It requires some creativity, persuasion and serious poker skills. And for Twins fans, it’s going to require some patience, trust and probably lower expectations. Because it’s not likely to turn out the way we’ve pictured so far. And if the tightrope act falters, it has the potential to be a full-blown disaster.
So, are you still having fun?
The speculation, I mean. After all, that’s what we like to do in the offseason. And that’s especially true for us saberbloggers and rotogeeks, who are only too happy to show off our knowledge of minor leaguers and sleeper candidates. But the real appeal is that it fires up the imagination, both for the fans lusting for that shining star and for the fan base looking for that deal that rebuilds a title shot.
But it’s not likely to stay fun, not if you’re a Twins fan, and especially not for a Twins executive. A very thin and straight line is going to need to be walked due to the impact of the no-trade clause that Santana seemingly has until…when exactly? Most sources indicate that it’s until the end of his current contract, which is the worst possible news for the Twins. That no-trade clause significantly changes their leverage, and likely makes a lot of the speculated player packages out of reach.
The sad truth is that the Twins are in a tough position even if there wasn’t a no-trade clause. With Santana’s impending free agency, there are two ways this trade can go down. It can either be a straight trade, in which case the receiving team only gets Santana for one year. Or it can be a “sign and trade” which means the Twins and another team would make a trade contingent on the other team agreeing to a contract extension with Santana within 72 hours.
For both the Twins and a trading partner a straight trade makes very little sense. Nobody is likely to offer a monstrous rebuilding package for a single year of Santana. In fact, you could argue that Santana is worth more to the Twins next year, a contending team with a young pitching staff, than he is to any other team in the majors. There’s just very little common ground for a deal. That might change as the trade deadline approaches next season. Or it might not.
But from Santana’s standpoint, the sign and trade approach doesn’t make much sense. He is already very rich, and he’s going to get richer. A year from now he’ll be courted and have his choice of teams and incredible paydays. That will all probably happen whether he is traded or not. So from Santana’s standpoint, there is only one reason to sign a new deal – he’ll get his big contract a year earlier.
That’s not a totally trivial incentive for a player, and one might think it’s even more tempting for a pitcher, because they tend to be more fragile than position players. But one doesn’t become a major league ballplayer without being comfortable with risk. Virtually nothing is guaranteed for most of these guys for the first half dozen year of their professional career. Don’t expect them to get cold feet as they approach their big payday. Especially when they already have millions in the bank.
Believe it or not, that’s not the bad news. But we’re getting closer.
Because even if Santana is willing to sign with a specific team a year early, the moment that realization hits, Santana’s allegiances change. If he chooses the team he wishes to sign with, he can just refuse to sign with any other team. The Twins will be in a position of either accepting his choices for a sign and trade deal, or another team’s straight trade deal. It’s an uneven playing field.
And now we get to the bad news.
Because the Twins can’t even do that. They can’t get the minimum return they might receive if they trade Santana to a different team. They can’t send him somewhere at the trade deadline to a team desperate for an ace. Because of the no-trade clause they can’t do any of that without Santana’s approval, and once he settles on the team he wants, there is no point in granting that approval. The Twins will be in an “or-else” position with Santana’s chosen trading partner. And the only incentive the other team has for making the deal early is they’ll have Santana for some portion of next year.
So if you’re a team that wants Santana, what should your strategy be? Put together a list of killer talent to offer the Twins? Hell, no. The winning strategy is to lobby Santana without actually getting charged with MLB’s tampering charges. You can bet that some players from the Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are offering to take Johan on some vacations this winter.
And the Twins strategy? It sounds like they’re doing it:
Open negotiations and as part of those negotiations, get a counter-proposal. They desperately needed to have some idea of what Santana and his agent have in mind for money and what else he might be looking for. Now they need find a couple of teams that can fulfill those wishes and play them off against each other. In theory, if the Twins can find a team that satisfies Santana’s wishes, they at least have a decent chance that a deal will get done.
Keep this on the QT. The larger the media circus that surrounds this, the harder it will be to be to enforce the non-tampering rules, and that is the single most important strategy the Twins have. If Santana, who shouldn’t be talking to anyone, chooses a single team, the battle is lost.
Understand that the Twins have a no-trade clause, too. This is important in two ways. First, they don’t need to trade this guy, which theoretically puts them on even ground with Santana. If they don't make a deal, Santana will need to stay healthy and put up huge numbers for another year. There’s some leverage in that.
But it's equally important when talking to other teams. As they quietly approach potential trading partners, the Twins need to make it VERY clearn that if they even get a whiff that the other team is dealing with Santana directly, they're out. After all, the Twins have incentives to keep Santana too, like a chance at winning in 2008 and the draft picks that will come back as compensation if he walks as a free agent.
This is a tough situation for the Twins. It requires some creativity, persuasion and serious poker skills. And for Twins fans, it’s going to require some patience, trust and probably lower expectations. Because it’s not likely to turn out the way we’ve pictured so far. And if the tightrope act falters, it has the potential to be a full-blown disaster.
So, are you still having fun?
Monday, November 19, 2007
Hunter a White Sock within a week?
Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin in earnest. The Sun-Times is reporting that:
The door is left open later:
Apparantly, the Jon Garland - Orlando Cabrera trade that the White Sox made yesterday was in anticipation of this possible deal. There is no mention of what the terms of the contract might be.
It's interesing, and a little terrifying, but it's also mighty short on details for a done deal. Let's see what else is dug up here before we get too carried away.
"Sources both in the Sox organization and the camp of
free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter have told the Sun-Times that the two sides could be signing a contract within the week."
The door is left open later:
"While an agreement had not been reached as of Monday afternoon, the source said that 'the climate'’ was there for a deal to be announced soon, unless another team comes in at the last second and blows Hunter away with an offer."
Apparantly, the Jon Garland - Orlando Cabrera trade that the White Sox made yesterday was in anticipation of this possible deal. There is no mention of what the terms of the contract might be.
It's interesing, and a little terrifying, but it's also mighty short on details for a done deal. Let's see what else is dug up here before we get too carried away.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Doing The Little Things Right
It used to be a point of pride. Now it's a ridiculed cliche. "The Twins Do The Little Things Right".
Usually that phrase has been applied to on-field play (though not deservedly this last year) but it's also been generally applicable to player personnel moves (though not deservedly this last year). Twins fans hope that attention to detail returns on the field. Twins Geeks hope it returns off the field.
Mabye it is. When I turned a critical eye toward the Monroe trade on Tuesday, it still wasn't a trade, only a rumor. But, as usual, the details matter, and they're showing some creative thinking on behalf of the organization.
To be honest, I don't think I've ever heard of a trade quite like it. The Twins and Cubs structured this so the Twins basically acquired exlusive negotiating rights to Monroe for the next month. If they don't get a deal done, they basically lose nothing. And if they do get a deal done, they lose very little besides some money.
Some of the criticisms still stand. Monroe still is nothing more than a deceivingly shaky fallback option. Also, the most the Twins can reduce his salary is 20%, which would mean he makes around $4 million next year, which is still probably too much for someone with his history. And finally, it's not clear the Twins truly understand that their biggest and riskiest investment is playing time.
But there's enough positives to make me gloss over the queasy feeling the accompanied the news that the Twins apparently made this deal without understanding whether they could negotiate a 20% or 40% pay cut for Monroe from last year's salary. Hey, what's a million dollars when you've got Carl's checkbook, right?
Or could it be that is another ploy, used to negotiate Monroe closer to the 20% cut? Far-fetched? Maybe, but my paradigm on this new regime has shifted a little. Objectively, all that's changed over the last 48 hours is that the Twins will likely spend $1 million less than I thought, may not give up anything from their minors, and may even throw Monroe back like an undersized walleye. Should that really be enough to change my view?
Maybe not. But the outside-the-box nature of this trade raises the possiblity that the Twins are suddenly acting a little smarter - and more creatively - than we're used to. For Twins fans starved for some pride in the local nine, that's not such a little thing.
Usually that phrase has been applied to on-field play (though not deservedly this last year) but it's also been generally applicable to player personnel moves (though not deservedly this last year). Twins fans hope that attention to detail returns on the field. Twins Geeks hope it returns off the field.
Mabye it is. When I turned a critical eye toward the Monroe trade on Tuesday, it still wasn't a trade, only a rumor. But, as usual, the details matter, and they're showing some creative thinking on behalf of the organization.
To be honest, I don't think I've ever heard of a trade quite like it. The Twins and Cubs structured this so the Twins basically acquired exlusive negotiating rights to Monroe for the next month. If they don't get a deal done, they basically lose nothing. And if they do get a deal done, they lose very little besides some money.
Some of the criticisms still stand. Monroe still is nothing more than a deceivingly shaky fallback option. Also, the most the Twins can reduce his salary is 20%, which would mean he makes around $4 million next year, which is still probably too much for someone with his history. And finally, it's not clear the Twins truly understand that their biggest and riskiest investment is playing time.
But there's enough positives to make me gloss over the queasy feeling the accompanied the news that the Twins apparently made this deal without understanding whether they could negotiate a 20% or 40% pay cut for Monroe from last year's salary. Hey, what's a million dollars when you've got Carl's checkbook, right?
Or could it be that is another ploy, used to negotiate Monroe closer to the 20% cut? Far-fetched? Maybe, but my paradigm on this new regime has shifted a little. Objectively, all that's changed over the last 48 hours is that the Twins will likely spend $1 million less than I thought, may not give up anything from their minors, and may even throw Monroe back like an undersized walleye. Should that really be enough to change my view?
Maybe not. But the outside-the-box nature of this trade raises the possiblity that the Twins are suddenly acting a little smarter - and more creatively - than we're used to. For Twins fans starved for some pride in the local nine, that's not such a little thing.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Queasy
And the Bill Smith era begins with....well, a kind of queasy feeling.
The rumored trade for outfielder Craig Monroe is going to be spun as a risk-taking move, and maybe even a steal. It will be taken as a sign that the Twins are willing to part with minor league talent to win now. Focus will be place on Monroe’s 30 home run power and RBI ability in 2006, and on the effect injuries had on him last year. But most of all, Monroe’s right-handed bat will look like a possible replacement for Torii Hunter’s offensive production.
And all of these are kind of true.
But there are other truths, too, and they’re truths that lead to a queasy feeling inside. Starting with:
Monroe is not as good as his numbers.
Simply put, Monroe is a right-handed version of Jacque Jones. His power is balanced out by his lack of plate discipline, and his numbers were enhanced by where he was hitting in Detroit’s lineup. In 2006, he hit 28 home runs and tallied 89 RBI, both impressive totals. He also hit just .255 and got on base at just a .301 clip. If you’ve been pining for those all-or-nothing at-bats that Jacque used to take, you’re going to like Mr. Monroe.
He’s older than you think.
Monroe burst onto the scene with Detroit just a couple of years ago, so it’s easy to think of him as a prospect. He’s not. He’s going to be 31 by the time spring training starts and one way or the other his decline started last year, when he hit just .219. Whether that was due to the patellar tendonitis and back problems, his age, or some combination of both doesn’t really matter. Either way, there’s no real upside here beyond 2008.
He’s expensive.
Believe it or not, the Twins came into this offseason with money to burn, having something like $25 million that they could throw at free agents or retaining players like Hunter. Monroe is now going to take up at least $5 million of that, unless they have the foresight to insist that they negotiate a contract with him prior to the trade, which is REALLY unlikely to have happened for a player of his stature.
He’s likely not worth the prospect they gave up.
If the Twins gave up anything more than a warm bucket of spit, they likely got rooked in this deal. If Monroe wasn’t traded, he was going to be non-tendered and would have been available on the free agent market. It’s unlikely the Twins would’ve had to pay him the salary they’ll need to now if they had gone that path.
The only real positive news here is that the Twins have reduced their risk level a bit if Hunter leaves. But they did so by acquiring a bargain level veteran who isn’t as good as his stats, with very little upside, who they’re likely paying too much. And so Twins fans are left hoping that the Twins know something that we don’t. Or we’re left trusting that the Twins scouting is doing a better job than they’ve done the last couple years with similar players.
Or we’re left embracing a slightly familiar queasy feeling.
The rumored trade for outfielder Craig Monroe is going to be spun as a risk-taking move, and maybe even a steal. It will be taken as a sign that the Twins are willing to part with minor league talent to win now. Focus will be place on Monroe’s 30 home run power and RBI ability in 2006, and on the effect injuries had on him last year. But most of all, Monroe’s right-handed bat will look like a possible replacement for Torii Hunter’s offensive production.
And all of these are kind of true.
But there are other truths, too, and they’re truths that lead to a queasy feeling inside. Starting with:
Monroe is not as good as his numbers.
Simply put, Monroe is a right-handed version of Jacque Jones. His power is balanced out by his lack of plate discipline, and his numbers were enhanced by where he was hitting in Detroit’s lineup. In 2006, he hit 28 home runs and tallied 89 RBI, both impressive totals. He also hit just .255 and got on base at just a .301 clip. If you’ve been pining for those all-or-nothing at-bats that Jacque used to take, you’re going to like Mr. Monroe.
He’s older than you think.
Monroe burst onto the scene with Detroit just a couple of years ago, so it’s easy to think of him as a prospect. He’s not. He’s going to be 31 by the time spring training starts and one way or the other his decline started last year, when he hit just .219. Whether that was due to the patellar tendonitis and back problems, his age, or some combination of both doesn’t really matter. Either way, there’s no real upside here beyond 2008.
He’s expensive.
Believe it or not, the Twins came into this offseason with money to burn, having something like $25 million that they could throw at free agents or retaining players like Hunter. Monroe is now going to take up at least $5 million of that, unless they have the foresight to insist that they negotiate a contract with him prior to the trade, which is REALLY unlikely to have happened for a player of his stature.
He’s likely not worth the prospect they gave up.
If the Twins gave up anything more than a warm bucket of spit, they likely got rooked in this deal. If Monroe wasn’t traded, he was going to be non-tendered and would have been available on the free agent market. It’s unlikely the Twins would’ve had to pay him the salary they’ll need to now if they had gone that path.
The only real positive news here is that the Twins have reduced their risk level a bit if Hunter leaves. But they did so by acquiring a bargain level veteran who isn’t as good as his stats, with very little upside, who they’re likely paying too much. And so Twins fans are left hoping that the Twins know something that we don’t. Or we’re left trusting that the Twins scouting is doing a better job than they’ve done the last couple years with similar players.
Or we’re left embracing a slightly familiar queasy feeling.
Monday, November 12, 2007
On Losing Control
Philadelphia Phillies announce they've signed JC Romero (LHP) to a three-year contract for $12 million.
Blink. Blink.
I learned first hand that there are plenty of pitfalls to being an earnest young man, starting with the limits it places on your sense of appropriate behavior. Earnest, serious analysis has its time and place, but there are also times to be stupid. Or, in the words of Walter “Gib” Gibson, “What the hell's wrong with being stupid once in awhile?”
The foremost example of this philosophy is matters of the heart. There is precious little room for analysis in intimacy. Letting someone you barely know into your bed and falling asleep naked next to him or her is an act of insanity. You need to play a ridiculous game, and act the fool to get anywhere near love.
So you had better get a highly developed sense of humor, and quick. That walk of shame can crush oneself quick if you can’t laugh at your own actions, weaknesses, and kitschy sexual predilections. Just what was it that drew you to her, exactly? Where did that feeling come? And most importanly, what were you thinking?
You’re a good way towards the answers when you can shake your head and laugh at the results.
I hope this morning Philadelphia Phillies GM Pat Gillick is laughing at himself and the chemical hold that JC Romero seemingly has on him, because I assure you, he’s likely to be fielding some calls from his fraternal brothers.
“Mr. Gillick? Mr. Ryan is on line one.”“Dude, you know he went after my manager’s door with a bat, right? A BAT. And that was after we’d sent him down to the minors to get his head straight. Sleep tight, buddy.”
“I’ve told Mr. Epstein several times that you’re busy, but he keeps calling. He’s on line two.”
“You just can’t get enough of my throwaways, can you buddy? Listen, I hear you, it’s closing time, you’re in the game and he looks like the complete package. But let me warn you – no control. Or maybe you like that type, eh?”
The danger is that this wasn’t just a temporary case of beer goggles. Maybe Gillick really is smitten. He’s a sharp guy, but even the smartest people think that this time is different. Maybe the object of my affection has changed. Or worse, maybe I can be the one that changes them.
I can see where Gillick might think that, seeing as Romero had a 1.24 ERA in his time with the Phillies. But his fundamental problem – the aforementioned lack of control – doesn’t seem to have changed. In his 36 spectacular innings with the Phils, he still walked 25 guys, which is about par. He succeeded despite that wildness because nobody could actually hit him. Which He raises the possibility that maybe the NL batters just haven’t figured out to show a little patience with him.
Now they’ll have three years to work on it, which is damn near an eternity for formerly free-falling Romero. After all, two years ago he was worth $2.2 million and a mid-level prospect. One year ago, he was worth $1.6 million. Five months ago, he was available for free. But today he’s worth $12 million over three years.
And, hopefully, a good self-deprecating laugh.
Blink. Blink.
I learned first hand that there are plenty of pitfalls to being an earnest young man, starting with the limits it places on your sense of appropriate behavior. Earnest, serious analysis has its time and place, but there are also times to be stupid. Or, in the words of Walter “Gib” Gibson, “What the hell's wrong with being stupid once in awhile?”
The foremost example of this philosophy is matters of the heart. There is precious little room for analysis in intimacy. Letting someone you barely know into your bed and falling asleep naked next to him or her is an act of insanity. You need to play a ridiculous game, and act the fool to get anywhere near love.
So you had better get a highly developed sense of humor, and quick. That walk of shame can crush oneself quick if you can’t laugh at your own actions, weaknesses, and kitschy sexual predilections. Just what was it that drew you to her, exactly? Where did that feeling come? And most importanly, what were you thinking?
You’re a good way towards the answers when you can shake your head and laugh at the results.
I hope this morning Philadelphia Phillies GM Pat Gillick is laughing at himself and the chemical hold that JC Romero seemingly has on him, because I assure you, he’s likely to be fielding some calls from his fraternal brothers.
“Mr. Gillick? Mr. Ryan is on line one.”“Dude, you know he went after my manager’s door with a bat, right? A BAT. And that was after we’d sent him down to the minors to get his head straight. Sleep tight, buddy.”
“I’ve told Mr. Epstein several times that you’re busy, but he keeps calling. He’s on line two.”
“You just can’t get enough of my throwaways, can you buddy? Listen, I hear you, it’s closing time, you’re in the game and he looks like the complete package. But let me warn you – no control. Or maybe you like that type, eh?”
The danger is that this wasn’t just a temporary case of beer goggles. Maybe Gillick really is smitten. He’s a sharp guy, but even the smartest people think that this time is different. Maybe the object of my affection has changed. Or worse, maybe I can be the one that changes them.
I can see where Gillick might think that, seeing as Romero had a 1.24 ERA in his time with the Phillies. But his fundamental problem – the aforementioned lack of control – doesn’t seem to have changed. In his 36 spectacular innings with the Phils, he still walked 25 guys, which is about par. He succeeded despite that wildness because nobody could actually hit him. Which He raises the possibility that maybe the NL batters just haven’t figured out to show a little patience with him.
Now they’ll have three years to work on it, which is damn near an eternity for formerly free-falling Romero. After all, two years ago he was worth $2.2 million and a mid-level prospect. One year ago, he was worth $1.6 million. Five months ago, he was available for free. But today he’s worth $12 million over three years.
And, hopefully, a good self-deprecating laugh.
Friday, November 09, 2007
Question for Everyone....
Does anyone know the specifics of Johan's no-trade clause?
I think I know this:
1. He had one from last year for his final position in the Cy Young race.
2. He didn't get one this year from his final position in the Cy Young race.
But does anyone know how long the no-trade clause from last year lasts? Does it extend through the end of his contract? Until the trade deadline? Until Opening Day? Until the first of the year?
For those people who think trading Santana is something that probably should be done, this isn't a small issue. If Johan gets to pick what team the Twins can trade with (ala Griffey) the Twins leverage in a trade could be significantly different than it is if they can take the best offer. If the no-trade clause lasts until Opening Day, trading him during the season might give them a lot more leverage than they would have this offseason.
Thanks for any info anyone can provide.
John
I think I know this:
1. He had one from last year for his final position in the Cy Young race.
2. He didn't get one this year from his final position in the Cy Young race.
But does anyone know how long the no-trade clause from last year lasts? Does it extend through the end of his contract? Until the trade deadline? Until Opening Day? Until the first of the year?
For those people who think trading Santana is something that probably should be done, this isn't a small issue. If Johan gets to pick what team the Twins can trade with (ala Griffey) the Twins leverage in a trade could be significantly different than it is if they can take the best offer. If the no-trade clause lasts until Opening Day, trading him during the season might give them a lot more leverage than they would have this offseason.
Thanks for any info anyone can provide.
John
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Tough Call
We must be made of stone. Because there's just no two ways about it - you need to be tough to be a Twins fan.
Start by withstanding decades of losing. Follow that by gazing stoically at botched stadium and broadcast negotiations. Then trust in mercurial young talent. And then wave goodbye to old friends. And finally, bear the playoff losses, knowing that a return next year is never a given.
Now, as we face a possible end of the Twins competitive cycle, we find a fresh new hell - the gamble. Faced with an impending doom, our team must start rolling the dice for one more shot at glory, picking up players whose only guarantee is that they’ll provide some sleepless nights. Whether we want to face it or not, the Twins entered that phase two years ago, when players like Tony Batista, Rondell White, Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz made their way onto the roster.
Oh, sure, there are always good reasons. He just needs a change of scenery. He's off the sauce. He contributes with his glove. And my favorite: he looked pretty good in Japan.
But the most dangerous reasons, and the most seductive, are usually about health. Extrapolate his statistics for a full year, and he would have 25+ home runs. He's taken longer to recover than we thought from that freak accident, but he could become that star he was supposed to be. Plus, he's adjusting his offseason regimen to keep those hamstrings healthy for the whole year.
You might want to start getting accustomed to those last three examples, because I didn't just make those up. Or rather, I did, but I did it unintentionally, as rumors started swirling about the Twins talking to the Devil Rays about centerfielder Rocco Baldelli. It was a reflex. A seductive, damning reflex.
If he can stay healthy, Baldelli has the potential to be a dream pickup for the Twins. He's just 26 years old. He was once the top prospect in the game. He held his own as a starting centerfielder when he was just 21 years old. He posted a 872 OPS (.302/.339/.533) in 2006.
Oh, and for the Twins, his contract is especially delicious, as he makes just $2.25 million next year, and the Twins have three more years of team options. He could replicate Torii Hunter's offensive production at a fraction of the cost, and would be under contract through 2011. If he can stay healthy, he's perfect.
Of course, if he could stay healthy, he wouldn't be available. He hasn't been remotely close to healthy for three years running. First, he tore up his ACL in a backyard ballgame in October of 2004. When that healed, he developed elbow problems that led to Tommy John surgery. (So much for 2005.) His elbow was basically healed and he was throwing during spring training before the 2006 season.
That's when the hamstring injuries started. They limited him to 374 at-bats in 2006, but he put up Hunteresque numbers as a 24-year-old. During the offseason, he proclaimed that those injuries were likely behind him. They weren't. In fact, last year he was out most of the year, getting just 137 at-bats, and hitting just .205.
So, in true tough guy fashion, you really need to ask yourself - are you feeling lucky, punk? Because the team that is giving him up is the freaking Devil Rays. If ever there was a franchise that was able to accept risk, this is that franchise. This is the team that carried Elijah Dukes into the season - and he was a legitimate threat to kill a random bystander at some point during the season. The D-Rays eat risk for breakfast.
But Rocco Baldelli and his amazing hamstrung hamstrings? Apparently that's just crazy.
And it's not like the Twins can point to a lot of recent success in this area. Rondell White leaps immediately to mind. Jason Kubel has taken a year longer to recover than anyone thought. And the Metrodome's concrete underbelly has taken its toll on Cristian Guzman's back, Joe Mauer's knees and Jason Bartlett's neck. Hell, our manager went in for surgery last year. When the coaching staff needs to play through pain, it’s not a good sign.
On the other hand, the clichéd secret is to buy low and sell high. Baldelli's stock may well sink lower. It can always sink lower. But it’s pretty damn low. At this time last year, trade rumors surrounding him included names like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was the primary chip that landed Mark Teixeira at the trade deadline. The Devil Rays apparently wanted more than that. Now? The Twins are likely dangling a young pitcher that isn't Matt Garza or Francisco Liriano.
Which brings us to another factor that makes this deal so seductive - it precludes almost nothing. If the Twins made this trade, they would still have plenty of money to spend. They'd still have plenty of pitching to deal. They could still re-sign Hunter and play Baldelli at DH (where he presumably could stay healthier). And they would have insurance if Hunter left. And that insurance would be very young, very cheap, and provide plenty of payroll flexibility.
But it's a huge gamble, and precisely the sort of move over which bloggers and the local media have feasted (see Ortiz, Ramon and Ponson, Sidney). That isn't likely to stop if Baldelli ends up on the DL for a month, which means Bill Lee is going to need to be every bit as tough as his fans.
Start by withstanding decades of losing. Follow that by gazing stoically at botched stadium and broadcast negotiations. Then trust in mercurial young talent. And then wave goodbye to old friends. And finally, bear the playoff losses, knowing that a return next year is never a given.
Now, as we face a possible end of the Twins competitive cycle, we find a fresh new hell - the gamble. Faced with an impending doom, our team must start rolling the dice for one more shot at glory, picking up players whose only guarantee is that they’ll provide some sleepless nights. Whether we want to face it or not, the Twins entered that phase two years ago, when players like Tony Batista, Rondell White, Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz made their way onto the roster.
Oh, sure, there are always good reasons. He just needs a change of scenery. He's off the sauce. He contributes with his glove. And my favorite: he looked pretty good in Japan.
But the most dangerous reasons, and the most seductive, are usually about health. Extrapolate his statistics for a full year, and he would have 25+ home runs. He's taken longer to recover than we thought from that freak accident, but he could become that star he was supposed to be. Plus, he's adjusting his offseason regimen to keep those hamstrings healthy for the whole year.
You might want to start getting accustomed to those last three examples, because I didn't just make those up. Or rather, I did, but I did it unintentionally, as rumors started swirling about the Twins talking to the Devil Rays about centerfielder Rocco Baldelli. It was a reflex. A seductive, damning reflex.If he can stay healthy, Baldelli has the potential to be a dream pickup for the Twins. He's just 26 years old. He was once the top prospect in the game. He held his own as a starting centerfielder when he was just 21 years old. He posted a 872 OPS (.302/.339/.533) in 2006.
Oh, and for the Twins, his contract is especially delicious, as he makes just $2.25 million next year, and the Twins have three more years of team options. He could replicate Torii Hunter's offensive production at a fraction of the cost, and would be under contract through 2011. If he can stay healthy, he's perfect.
Of course, if he could stay healthy, he wouldn't be available. He hasn't been remotely close to healthy for three years running. First, he tore up his ACL in a backyard ballgame in October of 2004. When that healed, he developed elbow problems that led to Tommy John surgery. (So much for 2005.) His elbow was basically healed and he was throwing during spring training before the 2006 season.
That's when the hamstring injuries started. They limited him to 374 at-bats in 2006, but he put up Hunteresque numbers as a 24-year-old. During the offseason, he proclaimed that those injuries were likely behind him. They weren't. In fact, last year he was out most of the year, getting just 137 at-bats, and hitting just .205.
So, in true tough guy fashion, you really need to ask yourself - are you feeling lucky, punk? Because the team that is giving him up is the freaking Devil Rays. If ever there was a franchise that was able to accept risk, this is that franchise. This is the team that carried Elijah Dukes into the season - and he was a legitimate threat to kill a random bystander at some point during the season. The D-Rays eat risk for breakfast.
But Rocco Baldelli and his amazing hamstrung hamstrings? Apparently that's just crazy.
And it's not like the Twins can point to a lot of recent success in this area. Rondell White leaps immediately to mind. Jason Kubel has taken a year longer to recover than anyone thought. And the Metrodome's concrete underbelly has taken its toll on Cristian Guzman's back, Joe Mauer's knees and Jason Bartlett's neck. Hell, our manager went in for surgery last year. When the coaching staff needs to play through pain, it’s not a good sign.
On the other hand, the clichéd secret is to buy low and sell high. Baldelli's stock may well sink lower. It can always sink lower. But it’s pretty damn low. At this time last year, trade rumors surrounding him included names like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was the primary chip that landed Mark Teixeira at the trade deadline. The Devil Rays apparently wanted more than that. Now? The Twins are likely dangling a young pitcher that isn't Matt Garza or Francisco Liriano.
Which brings us to another factor that makes this deal so seductive - it precludes almost nothing. If the Twins made this trade, they would still have plenty of money to spend. They'd still have plenty of pitching to deal. They could still re-sign Hunter and play Baldelli at DH (where he presumably could stay healthier). And they would have insurance if Hunter left. And that insurance would be very young, very cheap, and provide plenty of payroll flexibility.
But it's a huge gamble, and precisely the sort of move over which bloggers and the local media have feasted (see Ortiz, Ramon and Ponson, Sidney). That isn't likely to stop if Baldelli ends up on the DL for a month, which means Bill Lee is going to need to be every bit as tough as his fans.
But the Twins are at a point where gambling makes sense, whether we want to admit it or not. And if you're looking to gamble on toughness, who better than a guy named Rocco?
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Stop Me If You've Heard This One Before....
You’ve likely heard the joke, though I won’t blame you if you’ve forgotten it.
A guy brings his family to the stadium to watch his favorite, but terrible, sports team. But he accidentally leaves the four tickets on his car dashboard. When he returns to the car, he finds the windshield smashed and in the spots where the four tickets were he finds....
....eight tickets.
That’s the joke I thought about as we walked back towards our car at halftime of the Gophers-Illinois game on Saturday night. I was walking with The Voice of Reason™ and The Boy™, and another family with two boys, age seven and nine. The three boys were about as excited and energetic as they had been all night. Because we were leaving.
I don’t know the last time I went to a homecoming game for the U. My impression? I think it’s probably a pretty good place to sober up, and that’s good, because there were a fair amount of college students who could use precisely that kind of help. Not that I blame them. I don’t think I’ll make the mistake of attending another Gophers game without some serious toxins in my nervous system.
Otherwise, it’s just too painful. I took our family and our friends to the game because the tickets were free. I treated the kids to popcorn and some pop and the beautifully occupying magical malt cup. And I STILL felt like I was torturing them.
It was that bad. The score was 7-0 before we sat down. It was 14-0 before I brought them the popcorn. When the Gophers pulled within 11 points, it felt like a moral victory. Within fifteen minutes, the boys started spacing out, which meant they missed out on both opportunities to cheer. The Boy™’s favorite part was watching the Illinois cheerleaders do their pushups and flips.
I mean, I’m dealing with grade school boys here. There is absolutely NO WAY to interest them in a football team that is perennially terrible. Which is why I’m barely a Gopher fan, because I was in their shoes thirty years ago. And why I feel so silly writing this. The stadium was half empty for its homecoming. We now have several generations of kids trained in apathy. Do I really think anyone is going to be reading this?
With two minutes left in the first half, I realized that every minute longer was another minute too many. This wasn’t a nice family outing. This was the 21st century equivalent of the endless wood-paneled station wagon treks with the family across Nebraska. The high point was going to be the end. And the low point was going to be every single minute before the end. And if you add up all of those single minutes, I think we’re going on something like forty years.
So as we walked back to the car, I reflected. I had spent my Saturday night introducing my son and his friends to the joke that is U of M football.
I won’t blame them if they do their best to forget it.
A guy brings his family to the stadium to watch his favorite, but terrible, sports team. But he accidentally leaves the four tickets on his car dashboard. When he returns to the car, he finds the windshield smashed and in the spots where the four tickets were he finds....
....eight tickets.
That’s the joke I thought about as we walked back towards our car at halftime of the Gophers-Illinois game on Saturday night. I was walking with The Voice of Reason™ and The Boy™, and another family with two boys, age seven and nine. The three boys were about as excited and energetic as they had been all night. Because we were leaving.
I don’t know the last time I went to a homecoming game for the U. My impression? I think it’s probably a pretty good place to sober up, and that’s good, because there were a fair amount of college students who could use precisely that kind of help. Not that I blame them. I don’t think I’ll make the mistake of attending another Gophers game without some serious toxins in my nervous system.
Otherwise, it’s just too painful. I took our family and our friends to the game because the tickets were free. I treated the kids to popcorn and some pop and the beautifully occupying magical malt cup. And I STILL felt like I was torturing them.
It was that bad. The score was 7-0 before we sat down. It was 14-0 before I brought them the popcorn. When the Gophers pulled within 11 points, it felt like a moral victory. Within fifteen minutes, the boys started spacing out, which meant they missed out on both opportunities to cheer. The Boy™’s favorite part was watching the Illinois cheerleaders do their pushups and flips.
I mean, I’m dealing with grade school boys here. There is absolutely NO WAY to interest them in a football team that is perennially terrible. Which is why I’m barely a Gopher fan, because I was in their shoes thirty years ago. And why I feel so silly writing this. The stadium was half empty for its homecoming. We now have several generations of kids trained in apathy. Do I really think anyone is going to be reading this?
With two minutes left in the first half, I realized that every minute longer was another minute too many. This wasn’t a nice family outing. This was the 21st century equivalent of the endless wood-paneled station wagon treks with the family across Nebraska. The high point was going to be the end. And the low point was going to be every single minute before the end. And if you add up all of those single minutes, I think we’re going on something like forty years.
So as we walked back to the car, I reflected. I had spent my Saturday night introducing my son and his friends to the joke that is U of M football.
I won’t blame them if they do their best to forget it.
Thursday, November 01, 2007
The KG5: One Win and One Loss
The Timberwolves made some news late Wednesday night that is sure to excite both of their remaining fans, signinged Al Jefferson to a five-year deal for $65 million. The deal will keep Jefferson in Target Center through 2012-2013 and is the single largest justification for one-fifth of the trade of Kevin Garnett.
Which is good. Because they followed that signing by throwing another fifth of it into the trash.
Give credit to the dailies for noting that Wolves chose not to pick up their 4th-year contract option of Gerald Green, another player from the Celtics who came over in the Garnett trade. By not exercising their option (one designed to keep young, talented players affordable), the Wolves essentially granted Green unrestricted free agency at the end of the year.
He’ll be a free agent as a 22- year-old, because, like Jefferson, Green was drafted by the Celtics right out of high school. He’s played in the NBA for just two years, and last year the 6’ 7” swing man averaged over 10 points and 22 minutes with the Celtics. Presumably, that was enough to make him desirable for the Wolves. Desirable enough to include him in the Garnett deal.
And apparently, their opinion changed this preseason. Britt Robson pointed out that Green’s +/- rating this preseason was abysmal, and I’ll admit I wasn’t impressed with his performance on Friday night at Target center. On the other hand, he was one of the Wolves set to get increased minutes and benefit from the trade of Ricky Davis, and likely trade of Antoine Walker. The Wolves were poised to “See What He Could Do”.
Not anymore. Refusing to pick up this option changes everything. As an unrestricted free agent, he has no future role. And as someone with no future role, there’s no reason to invest floor time in him this season. No future, no present, and no past. By refusing to pick up this option, the Wolves essentially robbed themselves of an asset
Now, one could argue that maybe Green wasn’t an asset. He certainly hasn’t looked like one in training camp. But he WAS an asset in late July, right? And five weeks in Istanbul, playing with a new team, probably shouldn’t change that. So either the Wolves didn’t do their homework three months ago, or they messed this one up.
And even if they Wolves realized he wasn’t an asset, they could’ve done something about that before the rest of the league caught on. If there is some personal issue that we don’t know about it, move him. Include him as a sweetener to get Antoine Walker off the roster, or for another team to take Juwan Howard’s contract over.
It looks like it’s appropriate to celebrate the quick success of one of the KG5. But let’s not be so blinded by the fireworks that we miss the other side of the ledger. The Wolves record, before the season starts, already stands at one win and one loss.
Which is good. Because they followed that signing by throwing another fifth of it into the trash.
Give credit to the dailies for noting that Wolves chose not to pick up their 4th-year contract option of Gerald Green, another player from the Celtics who came over in the Garnett trade. By not exercising their option (one designed to keep young, talented players affordable), the Wolves essentially granted Green unrestricted free agency at the end of the year.
He’ll be a free agent as a 22- year-old, because, like Jefferson, Green was drafted by the Celtics right out of high school. He’s played in the NBA for just two years, and last year the 6’ 7” swing man averaged over 10 points and 22 minutes with the Celtics. Presumably, that was enough to make him desirable for the Wolves. Desirable enough to include him in the Garnett deal.
And apparently, their opinion changed this preseason. Britt Robson pointed out that Green’s +/- rating this preseason was abysmal, and I’ll admit I wasn’t impressed with his performance on Friday night at Target center. On the other hand, he was one of the Wolves set to get increased minutes and benefit from the trade of Ricky Davis, and likely trade of Antoine Walker. The Wolves were poised to “See What He Could Do”.
Not anymore. Refusing to pick up this option changes everything. As an unrestricted free agent, he has no future role. And as someone with no future role, there’s no reason to invest floor time in him this season. No future, no present, and no past. By refusing to pick up this option, the Wolves essentially robbed themselves of an asset
Now, one could argue that maybe Green wasn’t an asset. He certainly hasn’t looked like one in training camp. But he WAS an asset in late July, right? And five weeks in Istanbul, playing with a new team, probably shouldn’t change that. So either the Wolves didn’t do their homework three months ago, or they messed this one up.
And even if they Wolves realized he wasn’t an asset, they could’ve done something about that before the rest of the league caught on. If there is some personal issue that we don’t know about it, move him. Include him as a sweetener to get Antoine Walker off the roster, or for another team to take Juwan Howard’s contract over.
It looks like it’s appropriate to celebrate the quick success of one of the KG5. But let’s not be so blinded by the fireworks that we miss the other side of the ledger. The Wolves record, before the season starts, already stands at one win and one loss.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Notes from a loss. And a win.
The Voice of Reason and I attended Sunday's Vikings-Eagles tilt, thanks to the kind offrer of Wolves Geek. There were highlights....
Sadly, It Does NOT Include a Cardiogram - You probably already know about Ike's weekend brunch, but if you don't, it's certainly worth checking out. That is, unless you don't like all-you-can-eat hash browns, bacon, sausage, pancakes, omelettes, quesadillas and eggs benedict. Or, you might think that a cinnamon role the size of your head is excessive. I obviously don't.
But what you might not know, and something I don't think they advertise, is that they open early on Vikings game days. They opened the doors early for us at 9:20. The only trick is that they won't seat you until your entire party is present.
In Philly, They Do Something Similar. Only It Involves Being Arrested and Sent to Kangaroo Court. - When TVOR gave her ticket to the turnstile guy, he scanned it, but said it was listed on his scanner as a stolen ticket. She was shocked, because these were Wolves Geek's season tickets. He scanned it again - still came up stolen. She pointed out that I had already been waived through, and so had both our friends. He scanned it again. Still stolen.
At which point she started stammering pointlessly - and he burst out in smile. He just wanted to give the girl in a Eagles sweatshirt a hard time.
Because You Can't March to E-A-G-L-E-S - We were sitting in the rafters, surrounded by Eagles fans, which left TVOR feeling right at home. But it was clear that our many guests were having trouble adjusting to football in the state. And none more than when they kept hearing the Vikings Skol song.
And for Childress, They've Settled on Captain Dynamic - So everytime, that Adrian Peterson had a significant run, the Jumbotron would show him along with a nickname that the Vikings marketing department has settled on. The player that Childress consistently declares is a backup and who is limited to touching the ball 20 times per game is supposed to be called "All Day".
By the way, they were ahead at the time - The Eagles fans were enjoying themselves and brought some much needed passion to the game. For instance, after one incomplete pass, I heard the following yelled in quick succession from the Birds' faithful:
"Oh, NI-I-I- ICE pass McNabb! You suck!"
"Reid! What are you doing passing on first down, you moron!"
"Reid! Why don't you take some time off and deal with your degenerate kids?!"
"Hey, it's Santa! GET HIM!"
OK, I'm making up the last one.
And that about covers it, except for the game itself. We'll nee to get back to that later in the week.
Sadly, It Does NOT Include a Cardiogram - You probably already know about Ike's weekend brunch, but if you don't, it's certainly worth checking out. That is, unless you don't like all-you-can-eat hash browns, bacon, sausage, pancakes, omelettes, quesadillas and eggs benedict. Or, you might think that a cinnamon role the size of your head is excessive. I obviously don't.
But what you might not know, and something I don't think they advertise, is that they open early on Vikings game days. They opened the doors early for us at 9:20. The only trick is that they won't seat you until your entire party is present.
In Philly, They Do Something Similar. Only It Involves Being Arrested and Sent to Kangaroo Court. - When TVOR gave her ticket to the turnstile guy, he scanned it, but said it was listed on his scanner as a stolen ticket. She was shocked, because these were Wolves Geek's season tickets. He scanned it again - still came up stolen. She pointed out that I had already been waived through, and so had both our friends. He scanned it again. Still stolen.
At which point she started stammering pointlessly - and he burst out in smile. He just wanted to give the girl in a Eagles sweatshirt a hard time.
Because You Can't March to E-A-G-L-E-S - We were sitting in the rafters, surrounded by Eagles fans, which left TVOR feeling right at home. But it was clear that our many guests were having trouble adjusting to football in the state. And none more than when they kept hearing the Vikings Skol song.
And for Childress, They've Settled on Captain Dynamic - So everytime, that Adrian Peterson had a significant run, the Jumbotron would show him along with a nickname that the Vikings marketing department has settled on. The player that Childress consistently declares is a backup and who is limited to touching the ball 20 times per game is supposed to be called "All Day".
By the way, they were ahead at the time - The Eagles fans were enjoying themselves and brought some much needed passion to the game. For instance, after one incomplete pass, I heard the following yelled in quick succession from the Birds' faithful:
"Oh, NI-I-I- ICE pass McNabb! You suck!"
"Reid! What are you doing passing on first down, you moron!"
"Reid! Why don't you take some time off and deal with your degenerate kids?!"
"Hey, it's Santa! GET HIM!"
OK, I'm making up the last one.
And that about covers it, except for the game itself. We'll nee to get back to that later in the week.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Finding Hope
It turns out you can find a good chunk of 'hope' in 'hoops'. We're about to find out how powerful that that little literary coincidence is.
In this state, it's more potent than we might expect, or even want to admit. I'm not sure if there is any other region in the country that embraces youth movements in sports quite like Minnesota does. It's a bad habit. We want to think it's based on our natural optimism, but the truth is darker. We embrace the beginning because we've been so dissappointed watching our teams fail to successfully negotiate those last few steps at the end.
And so we yearn to rebuild. The Wild can state from their inception that they'll be relatively incompetent for a half dozen years while they wait for their minor league system to bear fruit. They still sell out. Watching a successful baseball team for a half dozen years is almost more than we can bear. We yearn to tear it down and restart, rather than face the possible torture of another short playoff appearance.
And now there are the Wolves. My family and I went to last night's preseason game and The Chatty Chatty Princess™ wore her Garnett jersey, "even though he's not on the team any more daddy." I hear you kid. And seemingly, so does the rest of the fan base. When talking with a sales rep tonight, I was informed that the season ticket package was the only way left to get tix to their most popular game this season - Friday, Febuary 8th versus the Celtics. It's gonna get a bit dusty in Target Center that night.
Until then, we have a lot of new guys to watch, and based on tonight's game, it'll be easy for this fan base to find some hope. Rashad McCants and Al Jefferson both look like real players, and Jefferson could end up an all-star. Craig Smith is still undersized vertically, but looked the part of the gritty backup power forward. Theo Ratliff looked competent.
But there will be growing pains. I want to get excited about Randy Foye, but he didn't play much, and didn't shine when he did. I made the mistake of watching first round pick Corey Brewer, and I wish I could get those images out of my head. Not that I don't think he won't eventually look good, but tonight he just looked lost, and I don't expect that will be the last time.
But the guy that made me rush to rotowire.com to look up his stats and history was Sebastian Telfair. He looked like a real point guard, delivering bounce passes in the lane, drawing the double team, attacking the basket. He's just 22 years old, and was drafted 13th overall out of high school in 2004.
His history is interesting. His one year with the Celtics was terrible - he fell from a promising first string guy to a troubled 3rd string guy - but he was playing for Doc Rivers. And just a year ago he was good enough that the Celtics, a rebuilding team, traded a #7 pick for him after he spent two years with Portland. And you have to love any guy who rotowire describes as "a New York City playground legend".
Listen, if he becomes as good at point guard as McCants looks like he'll be at small forward, that would allow Foye to become the sniper shooting guard that he seemingly needs to be. And suddenly the Wolves have four above-average players in their starting rotation, and they're all young and ....
Ah, you see, it got me too. It might be a bad habit, but bad habits come from somewhere, don't they? Like boredom. Or desperation.
Or hope.
In this state, it's more potent than we might expect, or even want to admit. I'm not sure if there is any other region in the country that embraces youth movements in sports quite like Minnesota does. It's a bad habit. We want to think it's based on our natural optimism, but the truth is darker. We embrace the beginning because we've been so dissappointed watching our teams fail to successfully negotiate those last few steps at the end.
And so we yearn to rebuild. The Wild can state from their inception that they'll be relatively incompetent for a half dozen years while they wait for their minor league system to bear fruit. They still sell out. Watching a successful baseball team for a half dozen years is almost more than we can bear. We yearn to tear it down and restart, rather than face the possible torture of another short playoff appearance.
And now there are the Wolves. My family and I went to last night's preseason game and The Chatty Chatty Princess™ wore her Garnett jersey, "even though he's not on the team any more daddy." I hear you kid. And seemingly, so does the rest of the fan base. When talking with a sales rep tonight, I was informed that the season ticket package was the only way left to get tix to their most popular game this season - Friday, Febuary 8th versus the Celtics. It's gonna get a bit dusty in Target Center that night.
Until then, we have a lot of new guys to watch, and based on tonight's game, it'll be easy for this fan base to find some hope. Rashad McCants and Al Jefferson both look like real players, and Jefferson could end up an all-star. Craig Smith is still undersized vertically, but looked the part of the gritty backup power forward. Theo Ratliff looked competent.
But there will be growing pains. I want to get excited about Randy Foye, but he didn't play much, and didn't shine when he did. I made the mistake of watching first round pick Corey Brewer, and I wish I could get those images out of my head. Not that I don't think he won't eventually look good, but tonight he just looked lost, and I don't expect that will be the last time.
But the guy that made me rush to rotowire.com to look up his stats and history was Sebastian Telfair. He looked like a real point guard, delivering bounce passes in the lane, drawing the double team, attacking the basket. He's just 22 years old, and was drafted 13th overall out of high school in 2004.
His history is interesting. His one year with the Celtics was terrible - he fell from a promising first string guy to a troubled 3rd string guy - but he was playing for Doc Rivers. And just a year ago he was good enough that the Celtics, a rebuilding team, traded a #7 pick for him after he spent two years with Portland. And you have to love any guy who rotowire describes as "a New York City playground legend".
Listen, if he becomes as good at point guard as McCants looks like he'll be at small forward, that would allow Foye to become the sniper shooting guard that he seemingly needs to be. And suddenly the Wolves have four above-average players in their starting rotation, and they're all young and ....
Ah, you see, it got me too. It might be a bad habit, but bad habits come from somewhere, don't they? Like boredom. Or desperation.
Or hope.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
The Blame Game: Dysfunction
Dysfunction isn't simple. It's a layered beast. The problems build over time, and it makes it difficult to identify what the current problem is. We remember the problem that is three layers down, but maybe not the one we can deal with right now.
And I know this well, because I'm a Vikings fan.
And I can guarantee you by the end of today's game, I was nearly as dysfunctional as my favorite NFL team. I had become angrier and angrier as I watched the game, and as I drove home listening to KFAN, it was apparent that wasn't unique. But I wondered if we weren't being as dysfunctional as the offense, focusing on old problems instead of the immediate issue.
Yes, Adrian Peterson still doesn't touch the ball enough, but was that the biggest issue with why the Vikings offense stalled in nine straight drives? And so, through the magic of TIVO, I thought it might be kind of neat to recap them quickly, and play The Blame Game.
2nd drive. Starting at the Vikings 1 yard line - After a succesful first drive, the Vikings go three and out, but bad field position should get most of the blame. And I'll let Bobby Wade off the hook for that.
Blame: Nobody. Wade did what he was supposed to do and let a punted ball over his head go past him. It was just a bad bounce.
3rd drive. Starting at the Vikes 21 yard line - Well, the first two plays were runs by Peterson that made all of 1 yard. 3rd down was a pass to Ferguson that was off-target, caught, but bobbled out of bounds and found to be incomplete on replay.
Blame: Nobody. It was logical to run a couple of times, and they went to the right guy. I suppose it could be on Jackson for the bad pass, but two crummy runs set it up.
By the way, these are the only meaningful times the offense had the ball in the first half. Considering that the offense scored on one of their three possessions and began another on their own one yar line, that wasn't a bad half.
4th drive. Starting at the Vikes 16 yard line - Two runs gain seven yards, and the second could have gone farther if Peterson reads his block. But on 3rd and three, Peterson is on the sideline and the Vikes line up in the shotgun. The try to run a pick play on the left. It takes a long time to develop, the pass is on target, but the receiver is covered, and it's broken up.
Blame: Coaching, but not just for having Peterson on the sideline. Why, on third and three, do you commit to the pass with a shotgun? Why not play-action? Why allow the cornerbacks to jam the receivers? Why not keep the defense honest?
5th drive. Starting at the Vikes 7 yard line - Jackson almost earns a safety on the first play, when he intentionally grounds the ball from the one yard line. It was supposed to be a short pass in the flat to Kleinsasser, but the Cowboys left defensive end was up field and blocked the vision of Jackson. The second option seemed to be a the wide receiver on the other sideline who simply never moved - until Jackson started looking for him at which point he was gone. The next two plays were running plays, the first of which was a zero yard gain by Peterson.
Blame: Offensive Line This drive was doomed on the first play. At first, that looked like Jackson's fault, and he certainly could have been decisive earlier. But the line wins the blame for two reasons:
1) The right guard took several steps back immeiately after the snap, inviting the left end to clog up that lane. Either that's his mistake or it's a stupidly designed play.
2) With his first option removed, Jackson just didn't have time to identify a second option. Even on a three-step drop, he needs more time than he had.
6th drive. Starting at the Vikes 24 yard line - The Vikings move the ball on this drive. A big third down completion to Bobby Wade precedes a 12-yard scramble by Jackson and a fifteen-yard run by Peterson. At the Cowboys 31-yard line, the Vikes hand off to Taylor for no yards. Jackson misses Bobby Wade for a long completion on a well-excecuted play-action pass. And then Jackson feels the rush and throws a dump pass at the feet of Troy Williamson. Adrian Peterson is not on the field for any of those three plays.
Blame: Jackson Again, this changed from game time. At the time I was irate that Peterson wasn't on the field. I'm still baffled by him not being there, but that second play was set up to work perfectly, and the third play was makable and could've gotten the first down (or at least a closer field goal attempt.) Jackson threw a bad pass on second down and a made a decision way too late on third down.
7th drive. Starting on Vikes own 20 yard line - A promising start as Peterson runs for 12 yards, Taylor runs for 16 and then Jackson tucks the ball and runs for three more. Ryan Cook commits a false start penalty so the Vikes need twelve yards on two downs. Adrian Peterson drops a long pass. Jackson completes a dump pass to Taylor on third down, but the Vikes are four yards short and punt again at the Cowboys 47 yard line.
Blame: Offensive line. It's a tough call, because I don't love the idea of trying to throw 20 yards downfield to Peterson on a must-have play, and Peterson did drop the ball. Plus, the offensive line generally gave Jackson enough time. But that false start penalty changed that drive.
8th drive. Starting on Vikes own 9 yard line -
Blame: Peterson. He fumbles the ball and the Cowboys recover and kick a field goal.
9th drive. Starting on Vikes own 22 yard line - Yet another drive starts out well, with a short run by Taylor and a 21-yard pass to Troy Williamson. Peterson comes back into the game, and the Vikes fake him the ball on an end around but hand off to Taylor up the middle for no gain. On second down, Jackson takes a short drop and looks for one of three receivers all of which have stopped about seven yards out. His first option is covered and before he can throw the ball to the outside receiver he's hit by the defender that Peterson was blocking. On third down, the Cowboys send an extra rusher, Jackson is pressured and tries to dump it to Taylor, but it's incomplete.
Blame: Don't know When three plays in a row go nowhere, it's hard to say. I originally had thought this was play-calling, but Peterson was in the game, and the team was trying to use the play-action pass.
10th drive. Starting on Cowboys 45-yard line - The Vikes try three pass plays, and Peterson isn't on the field for any of them. First, they throw long down the sideline to Sydney Rice, and that's broken up. On second down, Jackson drills a 10-yard pass towards Bobby Wade, but it's way off target. On third down, Jackson is sacked, despite having time and two outlet options, at least one of which was wide open.
Blame: Jackson You must have Peterson on the field for these, even if he isn't the blocker Taylor is. But Jackson made an absolute mess of the last two plays and didn't give the Vikes a chance to attempt a fourth down.
So what did I learn? First, the offense was a little better than I thought, moving the ball on three of their second-half drives. But there was plenty of blame to go around for when it stalled, with the Vikings right side of the offensive line not getting it's fair share.
Second, while there are a few times that Vikings fans can legitimately gripe about Peterson's role, it's probably not more than a handful of plays. And it's also worth noting that when it comes to blame, Peterson's fumble, dropped pass and missed block led to three stalled drives. You could argue that he is a runner-up in The Blame Game.
But the "winner" is probably Tarvaris Jackson. Reviewing the game, he completed more passes than I remembered, though I'm sure we'll hear more about his longer off-target passes. But what really hurt him and the Vikings were several short dump passes that he threw a little too late, staying with primary and secondary receivers a little too long.
Not that this was the only problem. It appears there are indeed several layers of dysfunction to the Vikings offense. We may indeed be just scratching the surface.
And I know this well, because I'm a Vikings fan.
And I can guarantee you by the end of today's game, I was nearly as dysfunctional as my favorite NFL team. I had become angrier and angrier as I watched the game, and as I drove home listening to KFAN, it was apparent that wasn't unique. But I wondered if we weren't being as dysfunctional as the offense, focusing on old problems instead of the immediate issue.
Yes, Adrian Peterson still doesn't touch the ball enough, but was that the biggest issue with why the Vikings offense stalled in nine straight drives? And so, through the magic of TIVO, I thought it might be kind of neat to recap them quickly, and play The Blame Game.
2nd drive. Starting at the Vikings 1 yard line - After a succesful first drive, the Vikings go three and out, but bad field position should get most of the blame. And I'll let Bobby Wade off the hook for that.
Blame: Nobody. Wade did what he was supposed to do and let a punted ball over his head go past him. It was just a bad bounce.
3rd drive. Starting at the Vikes 21 yard line - Well, the first two plays were runs by Peterson that made all of 1 yard. 3rd down was a pass to Ferguson that was off-target, caught, but bobbled out of bounds and found to be incomplete on replay.
Blame: Nobody. It was logical to run a couple of times, and they went to the right guy. I suppose it could be on Jackson for the bad pass, but two crummy runs set it up.
By the way, these are the only meaningful times the offense had the ball in the first half. Considering that the offense scored on one of their three possessions and began another on their own one yar line, that wasn't a bad half.
4th drive. Starting at the Vikes 16 yard line - Two runs gain seven yards, and the second could have gone farther if Peterson reads his block. But on 3rd and three, Peterson is on the sideline and the Vikes line up in the shotgun. The try to run a pick play on the left. It takes a long time to develop, the pass is on target, but the receiver is covered, and it's broken up.
Blame: Coaching, but not just for having Peterson on the sideline. Why, on third and three, do you commit to the pass with a shotgun? Why not play-action? Why allow the cornerbacks to jam the receivers? Why not keep the defense honest?
5th drive. Starting at the Vikes 7 yard line - Jackson almost earns a safety on the first play, when he intentionally grounds the ball from the one yard line. It was supposed to be a short pass in the flat to Kleinsasser, but the Cowboys left defensive end was up field and blocked the vision of Jackson. The second option seemed to be a the wide receiver on the other sideline who simply never moved - until Jackson started looking for him at which point he was gone. The next two plays were running plays, the first of which was a zero yard gain by Peterson.
Blame: Offensive Line This drive was doomed on the first play. At first, that looked like Jackson's fault, and he certainly could have been decisive earlier. But the line wins the blame for two reasons:
1) The right guard took several steps back immeiately after the snap, inviting the left end to clog up that lane. Either that's his mistake or it's a stupidly designed play.
2) With his first option removed, Jackson just didn't have time to identify a second option. Even on a three-step drop, he needs more time than he had.
6th drive. Starting at the Vikes 24 yard line - The Vikings move the ball on this drive. A big third down completion to Bobby Wade precedes a 12-yard scramble by Jackson and a fifteen-yard run by Peterson. At the Cowboys 31-yard line, the Vikes hand off to Taylor for no yards. Jackson misses Bobby Wade for a long completion on a well-excecuted play-action pass. And then Jackson feels the rush and throws a dump pass at the feet of Troy Williamson. Adrian Peterson is not on the field for any of those three plays.
Blame: Jackson Again, this changed from game time. At the time I was irate that Peterson wasn't on the field. I'm still baffled by him not being there, but that second play was set up to work perfectly, and the third play was makable and could've gotten the first down (or at least a closer field goal attempt.) Jackson threw a bad pass on second down and a made a decision way too late on third down.
7th drive. Starting on Vikes own 20 yard line - A promising start as Peterson runs for 12 yards, Taylor runs for 16 and then Jackson tucks the ball and runs for three more. Ryan Cook commits a false start penalty so the Vikes need twelve yards on two downs. Adrian Peterson drops a long pass. Jackson completes a dump pass to Taylor on third down, but the Vikes are four yards short and punt again at the Cowboys 47 yard line.
Blame: Offensive line. It's a tough call, because I don't love the idea of trying to throw 20 yards downfield to Peterson on a must-have play, and Peterson did drop the ball. Plus, the offensive line generally gave Jackson enough time. But that false start penalty changed that drive.
8th drive. Starting on Vikes own 9 yard line -
Blame: Peterson. He fumbles the ball and the Cowboys recover and kick a field goal.
9th drive. Starting on Vikes own 22 yard line - Yet another drive starts out well, with a short run by Taylor and a 21-yard pass to Troy Williamson. Peterson comes back into the game, and the Vikes fake him the ball on an end around but hand off to Taylor up the middle for no gain. On second down, Jackson takes a short drop and looks for one of three receivers all of which have stopped about seven yards out. His first option is covered and before he can throw the ball to the outside receiver he's hit by the defender that Peterson was blocking. On third down, the Cowboys send an extra rusher, Jackson is pressured and tries to dump it to Taylor, but it's incomplete.
Blame: Don't know When three plays in a row go nowhere, it's hard to say. I originally had thought this was play-calling, but Peterson was in the game, and the team was trying to use the play-action pass.
10th drive. Starting on Cowboys 45-yard line - The Vikes try three pass plays, and Peterson isn't on the field for any of them. First, they throw long down the sideline to Sydney Rice, and that's broken up. On second down, Jackson drills a 10-yard pass towards Bobby Wade, but it's way off target. On third down, Jackson is sacked, despite having time and two outlet options, at least one of which was wide open.
Blame: Jackson You must have Peterson on the field for these, even if he isn't the blocker Taylor is. But Jackson made an absolute mess of the last two plays and didn't give the Vikes a chance to attempt a fourth down.
So what did I learn? First, the offense was a little better than I thought, moving the ball on three of their second-half drives. But there was plenty of blame to go around for when it stalled, with the Vikings right side of the offensive line not getting it's fair share.
Second, while there are a few times that Vikings fans can legitimately gripe about Peterson's role, it's probably not more than a handful of plays. And it's also worth noting that when it comes to blame, Peterson's fumble, dropped pass and missed block led to three stalled drives. You could argue that he is a runner-up in The Blame Game.
But the "winner" is probably Tarvaris Jackson. Reviewing the game, he completed more passes than I remembered, though I'm sure we'll hear more about his longer off-target passes. But what really hurt him and the Vikings were several short dump passes that he threw a little too late, staying with primary and secondary receivers a little too long.
Not that this was the only problem. It appears there are indeed several layers of dysfunction to the Vikings offense. We may indeed be just scratching the surface.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Pythagorean Limits
This will shock you, I know, but I love mathematical magic tricks.
You know the kind I'm talking about. You'll get an email that tells you to pick a number a number and then add 30 and square it and add pi and by the end of the email, it's telling you you your birthday. I love that stuff.
And in some ways, that's what baseball's pythagorean theorem is. (If you visit this site, you likely know what I'm talking about, and if you don't, this is a nice primer.) You square a few numbers and presto-change-o, you have a win-loss record. It's magical. And we all know from history what happens to anything magical.
That's right. It becomes misused. Because those that know the tricks like the attention or the power, and those that don't can become pretty gullible. That's probably overstating what is happening now, and it is surely twisting the motives. But baseball's pythagorean theorem has some limits that have become convenient to ignore for its practitioners. I'd like to go through a couple of those over the next couple days, starting with:
1. It ain't gospel.
You will undoubtedly see, at some point in next year's season previews, someone pointing to a team's pythagorean theorem as proof that they will be worse or better next year. For instance, the Braves underperformed their pythagorean record last year, so they're really a better team than you might have thought. This conclusion is justified because (as is often stated) a team's pythagorean theorem is a better indicator than a team's actual record as to their true ability.
And it is, but just barely. Here you'll find GameDay's study that looks at team over the last ten years. The spreadsheet compares each team's record to:
1) it's record the previous year and
2) it's pythagorean record the previous year.
The results are consistent with what every study I've read about this. The pythagorean record has a slightly higher correlation than the actual record, but not by much. In our study, the comparison was .582 to .555. That's a difference that is technically known in the statistical community as "pretty much a wash".
Or, in other words, flip a coin as to which one you want to pay more attention to.
Which doesn't mean that you should ignore a team's pythagorean record. Just understand that the team also has a real record, and it's nearly an equally valid indicator of how good that team is. So don't treat is as gospel. Or even a minor miracle.
It's just a neat magic trick.
You know the kind I'm talking about. You'll get an email that tells you to pick a number a number and then add 30 and square it and add pi and by the end of the email, it's telling you you your birthday. I love that stuff.
And in some ways, that's what baseball's pythagorean theorem is. (If you visit this site, you likely know what I'm talking about, and if you don't, this is a nice primer.) You square a few numbers and presto-change-o, you have a win-loss record. It's magical. And we all know from history what happens to anything magical.
That's right. It becomes misused. Because those that know the tricks like the attention or the power, and those that don't can become pretty gullible. That's probably overstating what is happening now, and it is surely twisting the motives. But baseball's pythagorean theorem has some limits that have become convenient to ignore for its practitioners. I'd like to go through a couple of those over the next couple days, starting with:
1. It ain't gospel.
You will undoubtedly see, at some point in next year's season previews, someone pointing to a team's pythagorean theorem as proof that they will be worse or better next year. For instance, the Braves underperformed their pythagorean record last year, so they're really a better team than you might have thought. This conclusion is justified because (as is often stated) a team's pythagorean theorem is a better indicator than a team's actual record as to their true ability.
And it is, but just barely. Here you'll find GameDay's study that looks at team over the last ten years. The spreadsheet compares each team's record to:
1) it's record the previous year and
2) it's pythagorean record the previous year.
The results are consistent with what every study I've read about this. The pythagorean record has a slightly higher correlation than the actual record, but not by much. In our study, the comparison was .582 to .555. That's a difference that is technically known in the statistical community as "pretty much a wash".
Or, in other words, flip a coin as to which one you want to pay more attention to.
Which doesn't mean that you should ignore a team's pythagorean record. Just understand that the team also has a real record, and it's nearly an equally valid indicator of how good that team is. So don't treat is as gospel. Or even a minor miracle.
It's just a neat magic trick.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Second Thoughts
Yesterday at BaseballProspecus.com, Joe Sheehan talked about the Indians-Yankees series. Here's the link, but unless you have a subscription, I don't think you can access it. Sorry.
Joe's a fantastic writer, but what struck me was a common thought expressed early in the story. It's practically a gospel among the baseball scholarly. He suggests that the postseason is a crapshoot and carries that thought to its logical conclusion:
I myself have spit out similar thoughts often, especially give the Twins postseason futility. But this time I was suddenly struck by something. Namely, that nobody other than baseball fans ever says this.
For instance, the Spurs record last year was much worse than the Mavericks, but the Spurs won the NBA championship, the Mavs went home early, and nobody doubts who was the better team. (Though, I'll admit, Phoenix was a different story.) In the NFL, if a 12-4 team beats a 14-2 team in the Super Bowl – a single game - nobody tries to claim the 12-4 team was better. And when Anaheim marched through the Stanley Cup playoffs last year, they were acclaimed by all sides as a clearly superior team to emulate, despite having the third most points in the regular season.
In other sports, it's assumed that during the grind of a regular season, guys take nights off and injuries skew records. Or that special players wait until the playoffs to turn their games up a notch. Or that some players save themselves for the playoffs, or even play a slightly different game during the regular season so as not to tip their hands to some of the better teams.
And I have trouble seeing where baseball is any different. Is 162 games that much more effective in leveling the field than 81? Is baseball's grind different than the NHL's or NBA's? Is the goal of being one of the top eight teams so much different than being one of the top sixteen? Or twelve? MLB, NHL and NBA playoffs are similar in that they have best of five or seven games series. And the NFL, whose showdowns are just single games, never talks about sample size. So why are we so anxious to write off the playoffs? Why are we tempted to ignore the results when the best play against the best?
There are three obvious answers. Either:
1) There is something inherently different about baseball OR
2) Baseball is right and all the other sports are wrong OR
3) The other sports are right and baseball is wrong.
And for the first time tonight, I started to wonder if the answer is “C”. Maybe studying the stats has warped our view a bit. We look at the records and run differentials and regular season awards and feel like we know which team is best. Those facts mean something to us – we discovered them, we study them, we prove them and we take comfort in them. And from those stats, we crown a best team using 162 games of data. That is something that no other sport can really do with stats, or at least not the way baseball can.
But then that team doesn’t win. And so we have a choice: we can claim small sample size, or we can go back to the drawing board and try again to measure that which seems increasingly (and suddenly) immeasurable.
It’s not difficult to see why we choose the former. But tonight, it’s equally not clear that it’s the right choice.
Joe's a fantastic writer, but what struck me was a common thought expressed early in the story. It's practically a gospel among the baseball scholarly. He suggests that the postseason is a crapshoot and carries that thought to its logical conclusion:
"Perhaps I’m excessively dogmatic on this matter, but to me, the relative emphases placed on the postseason and the regular season are completely out of whack. The latter is a much stiffer test, and a much better gauge, of a baseball team than the former is. Use whatever term you like—"small sample size," "luck," "randomness," "variance," — but the statheads have this one right. Best-of-fives and best-of-sevens don’t do enough to separate comparable baseball teams, and while the winner of one is more often than not the one that played better during the series, playing better over four games is a vanishingly small test."
I myself have spit out similar thoughts often, especially give the Twins postseason futility. But this time I was suddenly struck by something. Namely, that nobody other than baseball fans ever says this.
For instance, the Spurs record last year was much worse than the Mavericks, but the Spurs won the NBA championship, the Mavs went home early, and nobody doubts who was the better team. (Though, I'll admit, Phoenix was a different story.) In the NFL, if a 12-4 team beats a 14-2 team in the Super Bowl – a single game - nobody tries to claim the 12-4 team was better. And when Anaheim marched through the Stanley Cup playoffs last year, they were acclaimed by all sides as a clearly superior team to emulate, despite having the third most points in the regular season.
In other sports, it's assumed that during the grind of a regular season, guys take nights off and injuries skew records. Or that special players wait until the playoffs to turn their games up a notch. Or that some players save themselves for the playoffs, or even play a slightly different game during the regular season so as not to tip their hands to some of the better teams.
And I have trouble seeing where baseball is any different. Is 162 games that much more effective in leveling the field than 81? Is baseball's grind different than the NHL's or NBA's? Is the goal of being one of the top eight teams so much different than being one of the top sixteen? Or twelve? MLB, NHL and NBA playoffs are similar in that they have best of five or seven games series. And the NFL, whose showdowns are just single games, never talks about sample size. So why are we so anxious to write off the playoffs? Why are we tempted to ignore the results when the best play against the best?
There are three obvious answers. Either:
1) There is something inherently different about baseball OR
2) Baseball is right and all the other sports are wrong OR
3) The other sports are right and baseball is wrong.
And for the first time tonight, I started to wonder if the answer is “C”. Maybe studying the stats has warped our view a bit. We look at the records and run differentials and regular season awards and feel like we know which team is best. Those facts mean something to us – we discovered them, we study them, we prove them and we take comfort in them. And from those stats, we crown a best team using 162 games of data. That is something that no other sport can really do with stats, or at least not the way baseball can.
But then that team doesn’t win. And so we have a choice: we can claim small sample size, or we can go back to the drawing board and try again to measure that which seems increasingly (and suddenly) immeasurable.
It’s not difficult to see why we choose the former. But tonight, it’s equally not clear that it’s the right choice.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Suffering from Vertigo
I suppose it's appropriate for the period of mourning to come to an end. Three days seems about right, and there's no use dragging these kind of things out. (Though I do think black suits me. )
It started late Saturday night, appropriately enough at about the time the clock struck midnight, though the Phillies had turned back into pumpkins long before that. It was more painful for The Voice Of Reason than for me, obviously, seeing as she grew up with them.
But for a Twins fan there was a special kind of pain, more of an ache, because you've felt this before. The outsider might theorize that was due to the similarities between this year's Phils and last year's Twins - the whole late charge preceding a quick playoff exit. But Twins fans recognized the familiar stink of a couple of ex-Twins.
In case you missed it, Game 2 was decided when Charlie Manuel made a move that would have left any Twins fan's mouth agape. His pitcher, rookie Kyle Kendrick, had struggled, but was leading 3-2 in the fourth inning. Unfortunately, the bases were loaded. So with two outs, Manuel pulled his starter early and brought in....
..wait for it.....wait for it.....
KYLE LOHSE.
Blink. Blink.
Just thinking about this makes my ears ring. Are you F-ing kidding me?!? Kyle Freaking Lohse??!!?? Does Manuel know nothing about his career? I mean, has there ever been a pitcher more gifted in putting up crooked numbers than Lohse? Why not just signal for the bullpen to send out a kerosene truck? And a Molotov cocktail? Were they not warmed up yet?
To Lohse's credit, he did manage to throw four pitches before giving up the inevitable grand slam.
And then, in Game 3, the game was tied 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning. Flash Gordon had recorded the first out, but a left-hander was coming up, so the Phillies brought in....
....you guessed it....
JC Romero. Many people will say that Romero has thrived with the Phillies, pointing to his 1.92 ERA. But Romero was thriving with them the way he thrived while throwing 33 straight scoreless innings with the Twins in his last year with the team. He was effectively wild then and had been effectively wild in the National League, walking 25 players in his 26.1 innings in the senior circuit.
To his credit, he didn't walk any in Game 3. And, perhaps to show up Lohse, he did record a single out. And then he recorded three straight hits. Which led to him recording an earned run. Which held up in the ninth to record an "L".
And as a Twins fan, I knew it was going to happen. I'd seen it all before, over and over. And all I could do was play the part of Scottie Ferguson and watch Kim Novak fall off that damn bell tower yet again.
Hmmm..maybe it's not mourning after all. Maybe it's vertigo.
It started late Saturday night, appropriately enough at about the time the clock struck midnight, though the Phillies had turned back into pumpkins long before that. It was more painful for The Voice Of Reason than for me, obviously, seeing as she grew up with them.
But for a Twins fan there was a special kind of pain, more of an ache, because you've felt this before. The outsider might theorize that was due to the similarities between this year's Phils and last year's Twins - the whole late charge preceding a quick playoff exit. But Twins fans recognized the familiar stink of a couple of ex-Twins.
In case you missed it, Game 2 was decided when Charlie Manuel made a move that would have left any Twins fan's mouth agape. His pitcher, rookie Kyle Kendrick, had struggled, but was leading 3-2 in the fourth inning. Unfortunately, the bases were loaded. So with two outs, Manuel pulled his starter early and brought in....
..wait for it.....wait for it.....
KYLE LOHSE.
Blink. Blink.
Just thinking about this makes my ears ring. Are you F-ing kidding me?!? Kyle Freaking Lohse??!!?? Does Manuel know nothing about his career? I mean, has there ever been a pitcher more gifted in putting up crooked numbers than Lohse? Why not just signal for the bullpen to send out a kerosene truck? And a Molotov cocktail? Were they not warmed up yet?
To Lohse's credit, he did manage to throw four pitches before giving up the inevitable grand slam.
And then, in Game 3, the game was tied 1-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning. Flash Gordon had recorded the first out, but a left-hander was coming up, so the Phillies brought in....
....you guessed it....
JC Romero. Many people will say that Romero has thrived with the Phillies, pointing to his 1.92 ERA. But Romero was thriving with them the way he thrived while throwing 33 straight scoreless innings with the Twins in his last year with the team. He was effectively wild then and had been effectively wild in the National League, walking 25 players in his 26.1 innings in the senior circuit.
To his credit, he didn't walk any in Game 3. And, perhaps to show up Lohse, he did record a single out. And then he recorded three straight hits. Which led to him recording an earned run. Which held up in the ninth to record an "L".
And as a Twins fan, I knew it was going to happen. I'd seen it all before, over and over. And all I could do was play the part of Scottie Ferguson and watch Kim Novak fall off that damn bell tower yet again.
Hmmm..maybe it's not mourning after all. Maybe it's vertigo.
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Help Wanted
A couple of days ago, I ripped the Wolves for trading Trenton Hassel for Greg Buckner, and things got a little testy in the comments section. The facts that I presented surrounding Buckner's contract were questioned, and to be fair, those details make all the difference. If the Wolves did indeed trade Hassell for a player whose contract they can dump a year earlier, power to them, even if he is three years older.
For the record, I got my info from usatoday.com, where they list nba salaries and contracts. They claim that Buckner's contract goes a year longer than Hassell's and that it's the player's option. On the other hand, Patricia Bender's excellent site seems to indicate the the contracts end the same year, and that Buckner's has a team option, which is a critical difference.
I'm going to assume that Bender's site (and the contract info reported by the PiPress) is correct, because otherwise, the trade would either be overwhelmingly stupid or... well, maybe something even be uglier. The fact that Buckner is $750,000 cheaper for this year can't help but make me wonder - was this done to save some nickels and dimes for this year?
Of course, the problem is that I can't get a straight answer on any of the questions that naturally arise, like "What is the Wolves salary level this year?" I can tell you that the NBA salary cap is at $55.63M, and that if I add up the salaries from espn.com's Wolves roster, it equals $55.16M. Which makes it looks like Hassell's salary would have put them over the cap, resulting in a luxury tax. But I don't know if all that money on that page really counts against the cap, or if more than that counts against the cap, or what.
The same problem existed tonight when I wanted to talk about the Wild and their season opener. The Wild look like a team that Twins fans should enjoy, given their philosophy of buuilding a young core of talent in the minors and slowly integrating them into the NHL for an extended run of success.
But is all this talk of young talent a bunch of hooey? Are they rated highly by national publications? The first two links returned from a Google search of "top NHL minor league prospects" were links to baseball prospects. The next link looks promising - for those willing to pay $12/month. Another site has two Wild prospects in the top 50, but one is the new backup goalie and the other is #47 and was a little dissappointing last year. However, they're ranked as having the 7th best minors in the NHL. Of course, this is all by the same (and totally unknown to me) source.
It isn't clear that these sports have found the intersection of entertainment and information that baseball has. But I'm determined to start putting some of these together so we have more to go by than corporate media.
So I'm asking for help. If you have some favorite sites for basketball, football or hockey, even if they're super wonkish and geeky, please let me know about them in the comments below. And while your at it, if you see any MN professional sports blogs or news that aren't included in our feeds on MNGameDay.com, by all mean let me know.
Don't worry, we'll get back to baseball soon. It's still my passion. But as we move through baseball's offseason, I'll also try to use these new links to get a level deeper into some of these other sports, too.
Thanks,
John
For the record, I got my info from usatoday.com, where they list nba salaries and contracts. They claim that Buckner's contract goes a year longer than Hassell's and that it's the player's option. On the other hand, Patricia Bender's excellent site seems to indicate the the contracts end the same year, and that Buckner's has a team option, which is a critical difference.
I'm going to assume that Bender's site (and the contract info reported by the PiPress) is correct, because otherwise, the trade would either be overwhelmingly stupid or... well, maybe something even be uglier. The fact that Buckner is $750,000 cheaper for this year can't help but make me wonder - was this done to save some nickels and dimes for this year?
Of course, the problem is that I can't get a straight answer on any of the questions that naturally arise, like "What is the Wolves salary level this year?" I can tell you that the NBA salary cap is at $55.63M, and that if I add up the salaries from espn.com's Wolves roster, it equals $55.16M. Which makes it looks like Hassell's salary would have put them over the cap, resulting in a luxury tax. But I don't know if all that money on that page really counts against the cap, or if more than that counts against the cap, or what.
The same problem existed tonight when I wanted to talk about the Wild and their season opener. The Wild look like a team that Twins fans should enjoy, given their philosophy of buuilding a young core of talent in the minors and slowly integrating them into the NHL for an extended run of success.
But is all this talk of young talent a bunch of hooey? Are they rated highly by national publications? The first two links returned from a Google search of "top NHL minor league prospects" were links to baseball prospects. The next link looks promising - for those willing to pay $12/month. Another site has two Wild prospects in the top 50, but one is the new backup goalie and the other is #47 and was a little dissappointing last year. However, they're ranked as having the 7th best minors in the NHL. Of course, this is all by the same (and totally unknown to me) source.
It isn't clear that these sports have found the intersection of entertainment and information that baseball has. But I'm determined to start putting some of these together so we have more to go by than corporate media.
So I'm asking for help. If you have some favorite sites for basketball, football or hockey, even if they're super wonkish and geeky, please let me know about them in the comments below. And while your at it, if you see any MN professional sports blogs or news that aren't included in our feeds on MNGameDay.com, by all mean let me know.
Don't worry, we'll get back to baseball soon. It's still my passion. But as we move through baseball's offseason, I'll also try to use these new links to get a level deeper into some of these other sports, too.
Thanks,
John
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Another CF Option and the Madness of McHale
The two great loves of my life, TVOR and TIVO are patiently waiting for me to come to bed, so rather than a full story, let's throw three developments out there that I think deserve more attention and call it a day.
Another CF Option
I still think the Twins will make it difficult for Torii Hunter to walk out the door, but I've been wrong about that before (see Koskie, Corie). The local fan base is starting to understand that the length of the deal is a much bigger issue than the amount of the deal, but there's another happier barrier that might keep the Twins from showing Hunter the money.
There are a hell of a lot of replacements for Hunter.
You might be a little confused right now, seeing as we've been subjected to nearly limitless rants about how irreplacable a presence Hunter is, but if the Twins don't sign Hunter, they'll have plenty of options on the free agent market. Indeed, not only is center field the lushest position of this year's free agent market, it's more loaded than it has been in recent memory.
You've probably heard of Andruw Jones, but there's also Mike Cameron, Aaron Rowand, Corey Patterson, and Kenny Lofton. Granted, none of these guys will replace Hunter's offensive production by himself, but none is likley to be as expensive, either. And at the risk of being labeled a blasphemer by the various high priests of sports opinion, that money is going to be spent, and it's likely going to be spent on offense.
And now we can add another name to that list. Kosuke Fukufome of Japan's Chunichi Dragons will likely be coming to the US this offseason, too. He's played right field in Japan, but has the speed for center and reportedly has an arm that is "better than Ichiro". Given the success Ichiro had playing CF for the Mariners this year, Fukudome might very well end up there next year.
Hmm, what else to tell you about Fukudome? He's 30 years old, bats left-handed (darn), and is one of the top stars in Japan. In fact, last year he won the batting title and the MVP with a .351 batting average and 31 home runs. He was hurt this year midway through the season, and is underwent endoscopic elbow surgery, but was hitting .294 with 13 home runs when his season ended.
It's a stretch to think that the Twins would subject themselves to the goofy system involved with signing a Japanese player, but even if they don't, this adds one more premier name to the market. It also makes the market that much more lush, and could eliminate one suitor for Hunter.
Another McHale Mcstake
I suppose at this point, nothing should suprise me, but did anyone realize the Wolves made yet another horrendous trade last week?
The Wolves sent Trenton Hassell to the Dallas Mavericks for Greg Buckner in a straight swap. It was widely reported as two similar players trading teams. After all, both are defensive specialists who struggle to make much difference offensively.
But that misses two items in the small print. First, Hassell is three years younger than Buckner. Second, Hassell's contract has one less guaranteed year than Buckner. So Buckner is older AND more expensive. Quite the exacta.
Oh, hell, it gets even a little better than that, too. Both players have a 'players option' for the last year of their contract (Buckner in 2010-11, Hassell in 2009-10). It's for almost exactly the same amount of money, about $4.3 million. Except that Hassell will be 30 when making that decision and Buckner will be 34. So guess which player is more likely to tack another guaranteed year onto the end of that deal?
That's right. The guy the Wolves got.
So let's unpack this a little. The Wolves, a team with absolutely no expectations for this year, just made a trade that:
a) removed one of their more popular players and
b) made themselves older and
c) hurt their financial flexibility for at least one and probably two extra seasons.
It's stunning. Obviously it doesn't have the impact of some of the other boneheaded trades this team has made. But when you take into account the simplicity of it (swapping similar players) this might be one of the most blatantly stupid trades McHale has made.
And that's saying something.
New MNGameDay.com Stuff
I'm determined to blog a lot more this offseason, and I'd really like to mix-in some non-baseball stuff regularly. I'd sure love to see the progress that I see with baseball coverage in this town expanded to some of the other professional teams. The more voices, the better, especially because I still trust bloggers to give us twice as much analysis as we're likely to get in dailies.
So, in addition to the Twins (and Vikings) blogs and news that have been at the bottom of MNGameDay.com, you'll now find feeds for the Wolves and Wild. As always, if you know of any great blogs or sites about our local teams that I'm missing, please let me know.
Another CF Option
I still think the Twins will make it difficult for Torii Hunter to walk out the door, but I've been wrong about that before (see Koskie, Corie). The local fan base is starting to understand that the length of the deal is a much bigger issue than the amount of the deal, but there's another happier barrier that might keep the Twins from showing Hunter the money.
There are a hell of a lot of replacements for Hunter.
You might be a little confused right now, seeing as we've been subjected to nearly limitless rants about how irreplacable a presence Hunter is, but if the Twins don't sign Hunter, they'll have plenty of options on the free agent market. Indeed, not only is center field the lushest position of this year's free agent market, it's more loaded than it has been in recent memory.
You've probably heard of Andruw Jones, but there's also Mike Cameron, Aaron Rowand, Corey Patterson, and Kenny Lofton. Granted, none of these guys will replace Hunter's offensive production by himself, but none is likley to be as expensive, either. And at the risk of being labeled a blasphemer by the various high priests of sports opinion, that money is going to be spent, and it's likely going to be spent on offense.
And now we can add another name to that list. Kosuke Fukufome of Japan's Chunichi Dragons will likely be coming to the US this offseason, too. He's played right field in Japan, but has the speed for center and reportedly has an arm that is "better than Ichiro". Given the success Ichiro had playing CF for the Mariners this year, Fukudome might very well end up there next year.
Hmm, what else to tell you about Fukudome? He's 30 years old, bats left-handed (darn), and is one of the top stars in Japan. In fact, last year he won the batting title and the MVP with a .351 batting average and 31 home runs. He was hurt this year midway through the season, and is underwent endoscopic elbow surgery, but was hitting .294 with 13 home runs when his season ended.
It's a stretch to think that the Twins would subject themselves to the goofy system involved with signing a Japanese player, but even if they don't, this adds one more premier name to the market. It also makes the market that much more lush, and could eliminate one suitor for Hunter.
Another McHale Mcstake
I suppose at this point, nothing should suprise me, but did anyone realize the Wolves made yet another horrendous trade last week?
The Wolves sent Trenton Hassell to the Dallas Mavericks for Greg Buckner in a straight swap. It was widely reported as two similar players trading teams. After all, both are defensive specialists who struggle to make much difference offensively.
But that misses two items in the small print. First, Hassell is three years younger than Buckner. Second, Hassell's contract has one less guaranteed year than Buckner. So Buckner is older AND more expensive. Quite the exacta.
Oh, hell, it gets even a little better than that, too. Both players have a 'players option' for the last year of their contract (Buckner in 2010-11, Hassell in 2009-10). It's for almost exactly the same amount of money, about $4.3 million. Except that Hassell will be 30 when making that decision and Buckner will be 34. So guess which player is more likely to tack another guaranteed year onto the end of that deal?
That's right. The guy the Wolves got.
So let's unpack this a little. The Wolves, a team with absolutely no expectations for this year, just made a trade that:
a) removed one of their more popular players and
b) made themselves older and
c) hurt their financial flexibility for at least one and probably two extra seasons.
It's stunning. Obviously it doesn't have the impact of some of the other boneheaded trades this team has made. But when you take into account the simplicity of it (swapping similar players) this might be one of the most blatantly stupid trades McHale has made.
And that's saying something.
New MNGameDay.com Stuff
I'm determined to blog a lot more this offseason, and I'd really like to mix-in some non-baseball stuff regularly. I'd sure love to see the progress that I see with baseball coverage in this town expanded to some of the other professional teams. The more voices, the better, especially because I still trust bloggers to give us twice as much analysis as we're likely to get in dailies.
So, in addition to the Twins (and Vikings) blogs and news that have been at the bottom of MNGameDay.com, you'll now find feeds for the Wolves and Wild. As always, if you know of any great blogs or sites about our local teams that I'm missing, please let me know.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Thoughts as I Simmer
So, after wrestling with a spreadsheet for a couple of hours that disected the free agent market, I discovered I massacred the damn thing beyond repair about an hour-and-a-half ago.
.....Simmer.....
The Bonnes household will be watching the MLB postseason with a rooting interest after all. The Philadelphia Phillies finally lived up to their "Fighting" monikor and found their way into the postseason today. In case you don't know, The Voice of Reason is a native Philadelphian, and I courted her for several years in that fair city. In fact, we had season tickets to the Phils the last time they made the postseason, in 1993.
(In fact, that banner picture of me screaming was taken at one of those postseason games. It was snapped from the upper deck of Veteran's Stadium minutes after the Phils eliminated the Braves in the NLCS. If you look really closely, you can see the "P" on the hat.)
Most of the coverage will likely center around the collapse of the New York Mets, and strangely enough, that's probably fine with Philly fans. I'm not sure which they enjoy more: the Phils' incredible finish or the Mets' historic collapse. For Phils fans, it's the sports equivalent of a menage a trois with two supermodels. One is unbelievable. Two is - well - where does one go for unbelievable squared?
But I think it's worth noting that this was one hell of a clutch performance, especially for a franchise traditionally know for their futility. The Phils won 13 of their last 17 games, and needed every damn one. They also played the Mets seven times in August and September and won every one of those games, too.
If you've seen any tapes of their games, you can see that Philadelphia has rallied around this team like very few other Phils teams, and there is no doubt that is partly based on some of the personalities involved, particularly Jimmy Rollins. But mostly it's because this team earned that playoff spot. And in doing so, they also earned a spot in a great sports town's hearts.
.....Simmer.....
In my search for info on the free agents, I came across a pretty good site that some of you might find interesting. MLB4U.com has several tools for analyzing the free agent market, including a complete list of possible free agents and a list of the top free agents available, including predictions on where they'll end up.
It's by no means perfect. First of all, it looks like most of the overviews haven't been updated in a month of so, and that leads to some questionable predictions, such as suggesting Eric Gagne will receive a 3-year, $36 million deal. But a lot of their predictions look like they're in the right ballpark, and Twins fans might find the sixth name on the list especially interesting.
It's Carlos Silva. Yeah, OUR Carlos Silva. The same one. Their prediction on Silva is that he'll sign a 3-year, $35 million deal. (They predict the Dodgers.)
The brutal truth is that the free agent starting pitching market is razor thin, and while one could argue whether or not Silva is the best free agent pitcher likely to be available, it's hard to argue that he's not one of the best free agent pitchers available. He looks like a legitimate #2 or #3 starter, and he's just 28 years old, and those guys get three year contracts for $10 million per year in this market.
It also brings home a couple of other brutal truths. First, any announcers or scribes who wasted their breath or ink this month suggesting that the Twins might re-sign Silva needs to take a look at how they do their jobs. There is no chance. There hasn't been any chance since, ironically, Silva showed that he didn't suck. This should put that crap to bed once and for all.
And while we're wishing things nighty-night, can we also break out the bedtime stories for talk about how not signing Silva could reduce the Twins chance of signing Johan Santana? Yeah, I'm sure Santana will be bitter about his good friend signing a deal for $35 million. And he'll be particularly furious about their part in converting Silva from a swingman with the Phils into one of the wealthiest men in Venezuela. Johan will just be spitting about it.
The second, much more brutal truth, is that it shows how the Twins really, really, REALLY screwed up at the trade deadline this year. It's one thing to think a team has a chance when they don't - that's an easy mistake to make. It's almost forgivable, because the Twins really were only a handful of games back at the time.
But if that's where Ryan's head was at, he can't trade Castillo unless it's for a super-prospect or significant help next year or payroll room to add help this past year. And if he's going to trade Castillo, why the hell isn't he shopping the two more valuable free agents on the roster?
And as unforgivable as it was to not use the deadline as a decision point for Hunter, it was even more unforgivable to not leverage Silva's value. Look, Silva was both more valuable to the league AND more replacable for the Twins than Castillo. So even if you do subscribe to the middle-of-the-road path the Twins tried to walk, Silva needs to be moved too.
I have spent an inordinate amount of time defending moves the Twins have made over the last year or so, in part because I think the criticism often has more to do with advancing an agenda than with anaylsis. But the more we look at the Twins moves (and lack thereof) around the trade deadline, the more I think the Twins have gotten off easy. This offseason is poised to show exactly how flawed their decision-making was. Silva's free agent value might just be the first very bad sign.
And another reason to simmer.
.....Simmer.....
The Bonnes household will be watching the MLB postseason with a rooting interest after all. The Philadelphia Phillies finally lived up to their "Fighting" monikor and found their way into the postseason today. In case you don't know, The Voice of Reason is a native Philadelphian, and I courted her for several years in that fair city. In fact, we had season tickets to the Phils the last time they made the postseason, in 1993.
(In fact, that banner picture of me screaming was taken at one of those postseason games. It was snapped from the upper deck of Veteran's Stadium minutes after the Phils eliminated the Braves in the NLCS. If you look really closely, you can see the "P" on the hat.)
Most of the coverage will likely center around the collapse of the New York Mets, and strangely enough, that's probably fine with Philly fans. I'm not sure which they enjoy more: the Phils' incredible finish or the Mets' historic collapse. For Phils fans, it's the sports equivalent of a menage a trois with two supermodels. One is unbelievable. Two is - well - where does one go for unbelievable squared?
But I think it's worth noting that this was one hell of a clutch performance, especially for a franchise traditionally know for their futility. The Phils won 13 of their last 17 games, and needed every damn one. They also played the Mets seven times in August and September and won every one of those games, too.
If you've seen any tapes of their games, you can see that Philadelphia has rallied around this team like very few other Phils teams, and there is no doubt that is partly based on some of the personalities involved, particularly Jimmy Rollins. But mostly it's because this team earned that playoff spot. And in doing so, they also earned a spot in a great sports town's hearts.
.....Simmer.....
In my search for info on the free agents, I came across a pretty good site that some of you might find interesting. MLB4U.com has several tools for analyzing the free agent market, including a complete list of possible free agents and a list of the top free agents available, including predictions on where they'll end up.
It's by no means perfect. First of all, it looks like most of the overviews haven't been updated in a month of so, and that leads to some questionable predictions, such as suggesting Eric Gagne will receive a 3-year, $36 million deal. But a lot of their predictions look like they're in the right ballpark, and Twins fans might find the sixth name on the list especially interesting.
It's Carlos Silva. Yeah, OUR Carlos Silva. The same one. Their prediction on Silva is that he'll sign a 3-year, $35 million deal. (They predict the Dodgers.)
The brutal truth is that the free agent starting pitching market is razor thin, and while one could argue whether or not Silva is the best free agent pitcher likely to be available, it's hard to argue that he's not one of the best free agent pitchers available. He looks like a legitimate #2 or #3 starter, and he's just 28 years old, and those guys get three year contracts for $10 million per year in this market.
It also brings home a couple of other brutal truths. First, any announcers or scribes who wasted their breath or ink this month suggesting that the Twins might re-sign Silva needs to take a look at how they do their jobs. There is no chance. There hasn't been any chance since, ironically, Silva showed that he didn't suck. This should put that crap to bed once and for all.
And while we're wishing things nighty-night, can we also break out the bedtime stories for talk about how not signing Silva could reduce the Twins chance of signing Johan Santana? Yeah, I'm sure Santana will be bitter about his good friend signing a deal for $35 million. And he'll be particularly furious about their part in converting Silva from a swingman with the Phils into one of the wealthiest men in Venezuela. Johan will just be spitting about it.
The second, much more brutal truth, is that it shows how the Twins really, really, REALLY screwed up at the trade deadline this year. It's one thing to think a team has a chance when they don't - that's an easy mistake to make. It's almost forgivable, because the Twins really were only a handful of games back at the time.
But if that's where Ryan's head was at, he can't trade Castillo unless it's for a super-prospect or significant help next year or payroll room to add help this past year. And if he's going to trade Castillo, why the hell isn't he shopping the two more valuable free agents on the roster?
And as unforgivable as it was to not use the deadline as a decision point for Hunter, it was even more unforgivable to not leverage Silva's value. Look, Silva was both more valuable to the league AND more replacable for the Twins than Castillo. So even if you do subscribe to the middle-of-the-road path the Twins tried to walk, Silva needs to be moved too.
I have spent an inordinate amount of time defending moves the Twins have made over the last year or so, in part because I think the criticism often has more to do with advancing an agenda than with anaylsis. But the more we look at the Twins moves (and lack thereof) around the trade deadline, the more I think the Twins have gotten off easy. This offseason is poised to show exactly how flawed their decision-making was. Silva's free agent value might just be the first very bad sign.
And another reason to simmer.
Friday, September 21, 2007
Podcast #2
It's been quite a week. If you would've told me last weekend, while I was researching free agent options, that I'd spend the second half of the week defending Nick Punto, I wouldn't have believed it.
Tonight was spent working on the other new project, the podcast of my friends watching various sporting events. If you missed the first one, I think you missed something pretty good. I was nervous that the only people who would think it was entertaining was the people who were actually there, but then I got this email from a guy I know in Chicago:
I am about to soil myself and I am only 4 mins in.
So I'm taking that as a positive sign. This Vikings/Lions game was considerably more painful, but I think the podcast turned out better. For starters, it includes much better language, with only one word I wish I could bleep. Also, the audio is quite a bit better, and without the volume changes that were so painful for the first one. It was also quite a bit easier to put together, and I'm getting the hang of this Audacity software a little, though there are at least 20 things I would like to learn about it.
So, anyway, if you like hearing guys talk about random stuff while watching football, give it a try. This week's is about 15 minutes long. You can subscribe to the podcast using:
http://www.switchpod.com/users/jbonnes/feed.xml
Or, if you just want to try this one, you can listen to it at:
http://media.switchpod.com/users/jbonnes/070916Vikings.mp3
Please let me know what you think, whether you like it or not. I'm a big boy. I can take it.
Tonight was spent working on the other new project, the podcast of my friends watching various sporting events. If you missed the first one, I think you missed something pretty good. I was nervous that the only people who would think it was entertaining was the people who were actually there, but then I got this email from a guy I know in Chicago:
I am about to soil myself and I am only 4 mins in.
So I'm taking that as a positive sign. This Vikings/Lions game was considerably more painful, but I think the podcast turned out better. For starters, it includes much better language, with only one word I wish I could bleep. Also, the audio is quite a bit better, and without the volume changes that were so painful for the first one. It was also quite a bit easier to put together, and I'm getting the hang of this Audacity software a little, though there are at least 20 things I would like to learn about it.
So, anyway, if you like hearing guys talk about random stuff while watching football, give it a try. This week's is about 15 minutes long. You can subscribe to the podcast using:
http://www.switchpod.com/users/jbonnes/feed.xml
Or, if you just want to try this one, you can listen to it at:
http://media.switchpod.com/users/jbonnes/070916Vikings.mp3
Please let me know what you think, whether you like it or not. I'm a big boy. I can take it.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Killing the Messenger
I saw the headline in the Strib and smirked. I read the story and smiled. It was going to fuel more Twins Territory energy than the lethal concoction of dollar dogs and Chuck Knoblauch. This was going to be fun.
La Velle E Neal reported yesterday that Ron Gardenhire was leaning toward starting Nick Punto at second base next year over prospect Alexi Casilla. Punto, of course, has posted a batting average significantly lower than, well, than most writers/bloggers weight, present company included. I wonder if Neal giggled as he wrote it in anticipation of the public reaction. Honestly, how could he not have?
The reaction was as conservative and placid as most internet-based stories. I counted three blog entries by noon, and several other blogs where the comments section was overrunning with reader reaction. The prevailing sentiment was that this was symptomatic of larger issue with the Twins and that Ron Gardenhire was an idiot.
Taken altogether, it wasn’t unlike an uprising. And the more I thought about it, the more the message was distilled into three short words that are a staple of angry mobs.
“Kill the messenger!”
Face it Twins Territory, Gardy is simply telling us an unpleasant truth that we already know: Alexi Casilla has done almost nothing to indicate that he is anywhere near ready to play at the major league level. Hell, I’ll take it a step further. Alexi Casilla has done almost nothing this year in terms of growth other than age a year. And any objective observer who hasn’t bought into the spring training hype and trade deadline excusathon would conclude the same thing:
- This year he hit .269 in Rochester.
- His plate discipline declined from last year.
- His major league OBP is .278.
- He’s been prone to boneheaded mistakes in the field and on the base paths.
- Versus left-handed pitching he has been positively abysmal (454 OPS)
Put yourself in Gardenhire’s shoes. Compare that player to a guy who had .300 average last year when he discovered plate discipline, has an excellent glove and is guaranteed $2.4 million whether he plays or not. Which one would you lean towards starting there next year?
Even the decision to play Punto at second or third base in front of Brian Buscher and Alexi Casilla at this point in the season makes some sense. Again, whether we want to admit it or not, the Twins already "know what they have" with all these guys. So do we.
- Casilla is a speedy slap hitter who hasn't shown, either at AAA or MLB, that he's ready for the majors.
- Buscher is a late prospect, ala Lew Ford, whose upside is probably Ron Coomer, both offensively and defensively.
- Punto is a starting middle infielder if he's hitting well and showing plate discipline, which he did last year. He’s a utility infielder if he isn't, which he did every other year.
Of the three, the one I feel least sure projecting next year is Punto, then Buscher, then Casilla. So why are we so worked up that Casilla is riding the pine?
Don’t get me wrong – this is really depressing news. It's most depressing because it is undoubtedly true. There isn't much help in the free agent market for second basemen, and there is no way that Casilla takes that job away from Punto in spring training if Gardy has it in his mind that it's Punto's.
But Gardenhire isn’t to blame that Alexi Casilla got a year older without getting a year better. That rests solely on Casilla’s shoulders. Or maybe we should blame Terry Ryan for using Casilla’s development as an excuse for the Luis Castillo trade. Or maybe we should look in the mirror for buying into the party line and wishcasting a player to be something he’s not. (Yet.) It seems thereare plenty of other accurate targets for our anger.
Let’s leave the messenger alone.
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Filthy Rich Twins?
Gloom and doom seems to rule the airwaves and print media surrounding this team, especially when it comes to the upcoming offseason. But one fairly significant fact surrounding this team has been overlooked, and it could make all the difference for new General Manager Bill Smith.
The Twins have a LOT of money to spend this offseason:
Now, that money doesn’t include money the Twins might need to pony up if they want to re-sign Torii Hunter, but the sticking point on Hunter has never been the amount of money he would be paid next year. The question is whether the Twins want to guarantee him an enormous chunk of ching when he’s turning 37 in 2012 (which other teams will undoubtedly do).
But even if they don’t re-sign Hunter, that still leaves an enormous amount of money for this franchise, more than they had in any single year that Terry Ryan oversaw the franchise. The erroneous criticism of Ryan was that he didn’t like to spend money on free agents. Whether he liked to or not, there’s certainly no evidence he ever had any to spend.
(Personally, I can hardly wait to see the media reaction if Smith does make a big free agent splash. Will columnists speculate that Jim Pohlad is more willing to spend than his father? Will radio hosts suggest that Smith is better at persuading the Pohlads to spend than Ryan was? Will radio callers wonder if Ryan was the obstacle to spending money all along?)
So are there any particularly good fits on the free agent market for the Twins? Strangely, the easiest hole to fill might be the one left by Hunter:
Center Field – If the Twins don’t re-sign Hunter, they can take comfort that there are a fair number of replacements. Brave Andruw Jones is the biggest name, but he’s had a terrible year. Odds are, he would be willing to sign a one-year deal to increase his value again. Padre Mike Cameron is on the down slope of his career, but would be a capable and more affordable option. Phillie Aaron Rowand has a combination of defense, offense and youth that is going to earn him a bigger contract than anyone expects. In fact, he might be as desirable in the market as Hunter. Finally, Indian Kenny Lofton would be a nice short-term solution to replace Hunter in the field and Luis Castillo at the top of the order.
Third Base – The position that Twins fans mention the most (and the one that has hurt the Twins this year the most) will also be the hardest to fill this offseason. The big name is Yankee Alex Rodriguez, but the Twins aren’t going to be getting him, no matter how much money they have. Red Sox Mike Lowell is more likely, but he’s 33 and will be looking for a long-term deal, ala Hunter. Beyond those two, the only real improvement over someone like Brian Buscher would be Mike Lamb, but can he hit left-handers?
Designated Hitter/Left Field – If you’re dreaming of adding a big bat, you would think this would be the best place to start. Umm, maybe not. The Reds have a $13M option on 28-year-old Adam Dunn that I’m guessing they’ll pick up, but if not, he’ll be at the top of the list. (I also wouldn’t rule out a trade between the Twins and Reds for him). Beyond Dunn, you have to start checking expiration dates, because some of these guys are likely starting to curdle: Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, and Bobby Abreu.
As one looks at the names available, it’s a little ironic (and depressing) that the free agent market is so thin at exactly the time that the Twins have money to spend. But it shouldn’t be overlooked that the Twins do, indeed have money to spend. Fans recognize that this is a critical offseason for this franchise. We should start expecting it to be a rewarding one, too.
The Twins have a LOT of money to spend this offseason:
- Add up all the Twins likely salaries, including arbitration award increases, and it adds up to about $50 million. (For details, see the 2008 GM Cheat Sheet part one and two)
- The Twins payroll this year was about $73 million heading into the season, and about $70 million after losing Luis Castillo, Jeff Cirillo and Ramon Ortiz. That’s about $10 million more than they spent in 2006.
Now, that money doesn’t include money the Twins might need to pony up if they want to re-sign Torii Hunter, but the sticking point on Hunter has never been the amount of money he would be paid next year. The question is whether the Twins want to guarantee him an enormous chunk of ching when he’s turning 37 in 2012 (which other teams will undoubtedly do).
But even if they don’t re-sign Hunter, that still leaves an enormous amount of money for this franchise, more than they had in any single year that Terry Ryan oversaw the franchise. The erroneous criticism of Ryan was that he didn’t like to spend money on free agents. Whether he liked to or not, there’s certainly no evidence he ever had any to spend.
(Personally, I can hardly wait to see the media reaction if Smith does make a big free agent splash. Will columnists speculate that Jim Pohlad is more willing to spend than his father? Will radio hosts suggest that Smith is better at persuading the Pohlads to spend than Ryan was? Will radio callers wonder if Ryan was the obstacle to spending money all along?)
So are there any particularly good fits on the free agent market for the Twins? Strangely, the easiest hole to fill might be the one left by Hunter:
Center Field – If the Twins don’t re-sign Hunter, they can take comfort that there are a fair number of replacements. Brave Andruw Jones is the biggest name, but he’s had a terrible year. Odds are, he would be willing to sign a one-year deal to increase his value again. Padre Mike Cameron is on the down slope of his career, but would be a capable and more affordable option. Phillie Aaron Rowand has a combination of defense, offense and youth that is going to earn him a bigger contract than anyone expects. In fact, he might be as desirable in the market as Hunter. Finally, Indian Kenny Lofton would be a nice short-term solution to replace Hunter in the field and Luis Castillo at the top of the order.
Third Base – The position that Twins fans mention the most (and the one that has hurt the Twins this year the most) will also be the hardest to fill this offseason. The big name is Yankee Alex Rodriguez, but the Twins aren’t going to be getting him, no matter how much money they have. Red Sox Mike Lowell is more likely, but he’s 33 and will be looking for a long-term deal, ala Hunter. Beyond those two, the only real improvement over someone like Brian Buscher would be Mike Lamb, but can he hit left-handers?
Designated Hitter/Left Field – If you’re dreaming of adding a big bat, you would think this would be the best place to start. Umm, maybe not. The Reds have a $13M option on 28-year-old Adam Dunn that I’m guessing they’ll pick up, but if not, he’ll be at the top of the list. (I also wouldn’t rule out a trade between the Twins and Reds for him). Beyond Dunn, you have to start checking expiration dates, because some of these guys are likely starting to curdle: Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, and Bobby Abreu.
As one looks at the names available, it’s a little ironic (and depressing) that the free agent market is so thin at exactly the time that the Twins have money to spend. But it shouldn’t be overlooked that the Twins do, indeed have money to spend. Fans recognize that this is a critical offseason for this franchise. We should start expecting it to be a rewarding one, too.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
The Impact of Terry Ryan
Make no mistake - this is bad. How bad? As bad as losing Torii Hunter or Johan Santana?
I suspect a statistical study could show it is. In fact, I've read just such a study. Several years ago a reader sent me a statistical analysis that compared win totals to payroll. Using regression analysis he derived a formula that turned dollars into wins, and then he compared how teams had performed to how they should have performed given their payroll.
His conclusion? That Ryan was worth about $45M over his time as GM. And that number has undoubtedly increased.
This year Ryan has come under unprecedented criticism, the majority of it misdirected. Critics focus on the number of players that haven't worked out, citing names like Bret Boone or Tony Batista, as if these players were ever anything more than low-cost gambles or role players.
We cannont forget that money is always the biggest consideration and limitation with this franchise. It has to be. That was a truth that Ryan publicly denied but embraced with every trade and minor league promotion. He might have believed promotion from within and a productive farm system was the best way to build a team regardless of payroll restrictions, but it's not like he really had a choice.
So don't kid yourself - this not a good thing.
How bad it is remains to be seen. Ryan was quick to minimize his role and credit others and there is ample evidence that he leaves behind a strong organization. Critics might point to a lack of major league ready hitters, but you can’t ignore the pitching that has been prepared, or the hitters that the engine has already produced. When looking holistically at the organization – the scouting, the farm system, the coaching and the players – the Twins aren’t in a much worse place moving forward then they were two days ago.
And, to be fair, the trade deadline fiasco might have been an indication that the “lack of enthusiasm” that Ryan mentioned numerous times yesterday might have been spilling over into his work. The Twins needed to move decisively in a direction that week, and instead wound up choosing a middle path that looks like the worst possible one.
Finally, all indication are that the Twins have chosen a suitable successor in Bill Smith. Face it – a nationwide search of ex-GMs wasn’t going to turn up an ideal candidate to lead a low-payroll team. Suggestions that Steve Phillips, the former GM of the Mets, would somehow be more credible to lead a team with the Twins payroll constraints than Ryan’s assistant GM are ludicrous. For better or worse, the Twins next GM needed to be a second-in-command from a successful small market team, which means it was either Smith or some guy from the A’s. Why not Smith?
Given his replacement, the organization, and some signs of decline, losing Ryan may not be as bad as losing a big name star. But nobody, not Hunter or Santana or Mauer or Morneau, has had the positive impact on this franchise that Ryan has over the last ten years. That should be his legacy.
And Now For Something Completely Different
You may have noticed I haven't been writing much for the last week, and that's because I wanted to try something I've had in the back of my mind for about 20 years. That's how long I've gotten together with friends to watch sports, which invariably turns into a conversation about sports and life. So last weekend for the Vikes home opener, we set up some mics, recorded it, and this week I've been battling audacity to try and turn it into something listenable. You can find it at:
http://media.switchpod.com/users/jbonnes/070909Falcons.mp3
It's about 15 mintues long and our conversation focuses on lot on Joey Harrington and razor blades, strangely enough. On the one hand, I find it pretty entertaining and funny. On the other hand, it's pretty clear I need a LOT more practice with Audacity, the mixer and the mics we got. Just keep the volume knob on your MP3 player handy. Trust me.
I'd appreciate any feedback you have. I liked doing it, and think it could get a lot better, but it is a lot more work than I thought, and I'm going to need to evaluate just how committed to it I want to be.
I suspect a statistical study could show it is. In fact, I've read just such a study. Several years ago a reader sent me a statistical analysis that compared win totals to payroll. Using regression analysis he derived a formula that turned dollars into wins, and then he compared how teams had performed to how they should have performed given their payroll.
His conclusion? That Ryan was worth about $45M over his time as GM. And that number has undoubtedly increased.
This year Ryan has come under unprecedented criticism, the majority of it misdirected. Critics focus on the number of players that haven't worked out, citing names like Bret Boone or Tony Batista, as if these players were ever anything more than low-cost gambles or role players.
We cannont forget that money is always the biggest consideration and limitation with this franchise. It has to be. That was a truth that Ryan publicly denied but embraced with every trade and minor league promotion. He might have believed promotion from within and a productive farm system was the best way to build a team regardless of payroll restrictions, but it's not like he really had a choice.
So don't kid yourself - this not a good thing.
How bad it is remains to be seen. Ryan was quick to minimize his role and credit others and there is ample evidence that he leaves behind a strong organization. Critics might point to a lack of major league ready hitters, but you can’t ignore the pitching that has been prepared, or the hitters that the engine has already produced. When looking holistically at the organization – the scouting, the farm system, the coaching and the players – the Twins aren’t in a much worse place moving forward then they were two days ago.
And, to be fair, the trade deadline fiasco might have been an indication that the “lack of enthusiasm” that Ryan mentioned numerous times yesterday might have been spilling over into his work. The Twins needed to move decisively in a direction that week, and instead wound up choosing a middle path that looks like the worst possible one.
Finally, all indication are that the Twins have chosen a suitable successor in Bill Smith. Face it – a nationwide search of ex-GMs wasn’t going to turn up an ideal candidate to lead a low-payroll team. Suggestions that Steve Phillips, the former GM of the Mets, would somehow be more credible to lead a team with the Twins payroll constraints than Ryan’s assistant GM are ludicrous. For better or worse, the Twins next GM needed to be a second-in-command from a successful small market team, which means it was either Smith or some guy from the A’s. Why not Smith?
Given his replacement, the organization, and some signs of decline, losing Ryan may not be as bad as losing a big name star. But nobody, not Hunter or Santana or Mauer or Morneau, has had the positive impact on this franchise that Ryan has over the last ten years. That should be his legacy.
And Now For Something Completely Different
You may have noticed I haven't been writing much for the last week, and that's because I wanted to try something I've had in the back of my mind for about 20 years. That's how long I've gotten together with friends to watch sports, which invariably turns into a conversation about sports and life. So last weekend for the Vikes home opener, we set up some mics, recorded it, and this week I've been battling audacity to try and turn it into something listenable. You can find it at:
http://media.switchpod.com/users/jbonnes/070909Falcons.mp3
It's about 15 mintues long and our conversation focuses on lot on Joey Harrington and razor blades, strangely enough. On the one hand, I find it pretty entertaining and funny. On the other hand, it's pretty clear I need a LOT more practice with Audacity, the mixer and the mics we got. Just keep the volume knob on your MP3 player handy. Trust me.
I'd appreciate any feedback you have. I liked doing it, and think it could get a lot better, but it is a lot more work than I thought, and I'm going to need to evaluate just how committed to it I want to be.
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Try this instead...
Sorry, but the end of a losing streak still isn't enough to take the focus off the Vikes today, at least in my mind. I'm going to be a littlele busy with a podcast experiment tonight, so check out Vikesgeek.com for his excellent take.
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