This Blog Has Moved

You can now find it at TwinsDaily.com.
Thanks,
John

Announcing Twins Daily

It isn’t just for reading. That’s the difference.

When I first started blogging in January of 2002, I went something like six solid months with less than 20 people reading my thoughts on a daily basis. That’s the dirty secret about blogging that both supporters and critics don’t get: it’s easy to do, but very hard to get enough readers so that anybody notices.

When I find out that someone has blogged, they have instant credibility. Sure, anyone can write. But to do so consistently, and make it insightful and entertaining without payment or promise of payment or even any hope that what you’re doing is going anyplace beyond dissolving into the ether – I want to know these people. That is a story of faith. And passion. And dammit, nobility.

Which is why it kills me that it may be harder to blog now than it was when I started. At least then it was new and fresh. Now it’s so loud out there, I don’t know how any new voice ever gets heard. And I’m as guilty of the deafness as anyone. I simply can’t keep up with all the Twins blogs that have sprouted up only to go silent.

That’s why TwinsCentric is very proud to announce the launch of TwinsDaily.com. We’re each setting aside our independence to start a central site where you can find (for free, mind you) all our stories. But the site isn’t just for reading. There are two other very important pieces.

First, in the hope of resurrecting the spirit of the old Dickie Thon Twins Board we’re including a forum where you can discuss all kinds of Twins topics. All we ask is that you register so we have some accountability for the discussions, and that you keep it civil. We’re all on the same team.

Second, when you register, you get a blog. You can ignore it if you want, or you can try out your voice. If your post is good, we’ll find room for it on the front page. And if it’s bad? Well, then we won’t. But at the very least you’ll be trying to find your identity where thousands of Twins fans are stopping by each day.

TwinsCentric has worked on several magazines, books and e-books over the last couple of years, but I think it’s safe to say that we’re more excited about this than any of them. This is a site we want to exist: a local place where Twins fans can gather, read, share and write. If that sounds great, then please swing by.

And if it sounds too over the top, swing by anyway, because that’s exactly what we want it to be.

Thanks,
TwinsCentric

P.S. If you’re looking for a good place to start, stop by the front page or check out our one-minute cheat sheet. Or you can check out my blog there, which is where TwinsGeek.com will be pointing to sometime this week.

Baseball's Happy Lexicon - 2012

This shortest of phrases makes our hearts soar
Pitchers and catchers report
We limped through last year but come back for more
Pitchers and catchers report
99 losses taught the boys things
We yearn for the clean slate a new season brings
Like Hornsby we stared out the window for spring
Pitchers and catchers report

Four tiny words and hope’s candle’s lit
Pitchers and catchers report
Gardy will make sure they get after it
Pitchers and catchers report
Smith was relieved and Ryan’s the man
He let Cuddy go but got Josh Willingham
We’ll hope that Capps moon shots don’t ruin his plan
Pitchers and catchers report

We love when they hustle and slide in the dirt
Pitchers and catchers report
But please Lord don’t let the boys end up hurt
Pitcher and catchers report
We’ll watch through our fingers when Frankie throws
Obsess on the nogginof Justin Morneau
And the Bilat’ral legs of our catcher Joe
Pitchers and catchers report

Finally you take your turn as poet
Pitchers and catchers report
Channel your winter frustration and show it
Pitchers and catchers reporthttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif
The comments below are a great place to bleat
Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat
(But add words wherever, if like me you cheat)
Pitchers and catchers report

With apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams

Options Could Limit Twins Options

Don't believe the hype. There might be 66 guys in Twins spring training, but they aren't really competing for roster spots. In fact, there may not be a single roster spot to compete for.

How come? Because of "options." Options are a MLB administrative rule that limits how long a team can keep a player on their 40-man roster but keep them in the minors. Basically, they have three years before they need to commit to bringing that player to the majors. For a little more on it, check out this entry, where I compared it to the amount of time before you move from dating to married.

If a player doesn't have "options" left, they cannot be sent to the minors without being offered to every other major league team. So a team risks losing that player, and that isn't a risk the Twins are usually anxious to take. Thus, a player without options almost always has the inside track to make it to Opening Day. And when you look over the 25 spots the Twins have available, player without options look like they're going to gobble up most of the open spots. Let's run through them.


The Twins entered spring training with their lineup and rotation pretty set, which (barring any injuries) takes care of 14 of the 25 spots on the roster
C - Joe Mauer
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Alexi Casilla
SS - Jamey Carroll
3B - Danny Valencia
DH - Ryan Doumit
RF - Josh Willingham
CF - Denard Span
LF - Ben Revere
Rotation - Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn & Jason Marquis

That leaves 11 spots, which probably includes four guys off the bench and seven guys in the bullpen. Here are heavy favorites for each of them:

• Drew Butera is likely the backup catcher unless the Twins are really enamored with newly acquired JR Towles.
• Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes are both out of options, so they're almost locks to be on the bench.
• The fourth spot might be the only open spot, but the obvious option is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who the Twins will be paying $3M whether he plays in the majors or minors.

And there are similar roster crunches in the bullpen. Four of the seven spots will likely go to Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joel Zumaya and Brian Duensing, all of whom are slotted for late-inning roles. And the other three spots? It turns out there are three relievers without options:

• Anthony Swarzak is out of options, is right-handed and did a nice job in the swingman role last year. It seems obvious that he would make it.
• Jeff Gray is a right-handed reliever who has pitched for several team the last couple of years. The Twins picked him up this offseason off of waivers because he was out of options. The Twins want at least one more right-hander in the bullpen, so he looks like a front-runner.
• Finally, Matt Maloney is a left-hander that the Twins also picked up this offseason because he was also out of options. He has mostly worked as a starter, but so did Perkins before the Twins moved him to the bullpen. And a third left-handed reliever might make sense given that Perkins won't be used situationally.

Suddenly there are 0 spots left and another 41 guys in camp.

Phoning It In: Options

I just realized that I never posted this story on my own blog, just at the Strib's. Weird. Since it's one of my favorites, and since I want to refer to it fairly often, I'm going to publish it now, even though it's two years old.

Options

~~~

By the fourth year together, you better be ready for a commitment. At that point, you’re out of options.

At 27 years old, this was explained to me subtly by my girlfriend ….

OK, subtly might be a little generous. She was not known for her subtlety. To be fair, she was from Philly. And I’m a Minnesota guy. So subtlety was neither going to find the seed nor the fertile ground to thrive. And that worked for us. Let’s try that sentence again.

At 27 years old, this was explained to me demonstratively by my girlfriend in the fourth year of our relationship. During the first year we barely saw each other, both of us clumsily falling into a long-distance relationship. The second year I moved to Philly and we navigated those life-changing rapids. The third year we drifted lazily down life’s river.

And then the fourth year came and all hell broke loose. Because I was out of options. A commitment needed to be made, or she was going to be gone. I had a decision to make.

Baseball options work the same way. A team has three seasons to make up its mind. If it doesn’t commit by the fourth, the player is going to be gone. The Twins have a decision to make.

Once a player is put on the 40-man roster (dating), the ballclub can only keep him off of the 25-man roster (marriage) for three seasons. It doesn’t matter how many times that person is added to or taken off of the 25-man roster during that season – the whole season is an option. So a player can be sent up and down multiple times during the season and it’s still one option. Or they can spend the entire season in the minors, and that’s also one option. The critical point is that they spend some time during that season not on the 25-man roster.

However, unlike our analogy above, those three seasons don’t need to be consecutive. Francisco Liriano would be a good example. Liriano was with the major league club all of last year; he never was sent back to the minors and so he didn’t cost the team an option. Even though he’s been on the 40-man roster for three seasons, he still has options, because the Twins didn’t send him down to the minors during some of those years. It would be like if I went overseas. That likely wouldn’t have counted as a year in our relationship. Though she might not have agreed.

Options are something that major league teams consider as they break spring training. A player who doesn’t make the roster and is out of options can be claimed by another team which has space on its 25-man roster. She finds somebody else who is a little more willing to make a commitment.

Fortunately, this year the Twins only have a few decisions to make.

Alexi Casilla (2B)
Last year’s make-or-break season for Alexi Casilla broke. But he’s still the best middle infield prospect in the Twins system, and with Orlando Hudson only signed for one year, the Twins would sure like to keep him around for 2011. But he’s out of options. The only way to keep him is to put him on the 25-man roster.

That presents a problem. Generally the Twins bring four bench players north plus possibly the 25th guy, who can be a bench or bullpen guy. Assuming Nick Punto plays third base, here is whom those four players need to be:

1. Jim Thome (for pinch-hitting)
2. Brendan Harris (or Punto, if Harris starts at 3B)
3. A backup catcher (Jose Morales if he’s healthy, Drew Butera if he isn’t)
4. A backup center fielder (can this be Jacque Jones?)

That leaves only the 25th spot – maybe – for Casilla. Or manager Ron Gardenhire could decide that he feels comfortable with Punto or Casilla as backup centerfielder (because he’s SO tolerant of questionable defense). My advice to Casilla is: get some time in centerfield during spring training. Major league, split squad, minor league – whatever it takes. He really needs to show that he can handle that spot.

For that matter Alexi, you might want to consider getting to camp early. Criminy! Are you really one of the four guys not there yet? You’re battling for the 25th roster spot and you’re not there yet? Savvy. On second thought, it might not be the biggest loss to lose Alexi.

Clay Condrey (RP)
It appears Clay Condrey, who is also out of options, is safe, but that has an impact on a lot of other pitchers. Generally the bullpen has six pitchers and one more if they successfully battle the bench for that 25th spot. Again, those spots seem to be spoken for (assuming Liriano gets the fifth rotation spot):
1. Joe Nathan
2. Matt Guerrier
3. Jesse Crain
4. Jose Mijares
5. Jon Rauch
6. Condrey (who is out of options).

So that leaves only the 25th spot for another pitcher. But look at all the players who are battling for that spot:
- Pat Neshek – the dominant setup guy coming back from Tommy John surgery
- Glen Perkins – who started last year in the Twins rotation
- Brian Duensing – who served as one of the Twins dependable starters last September
- Liriano – if he loses the fifth rotation spot to Duensing or Perkins
- Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship – two starting pitchers from last year who could probably use a little more time in the minors.

If Casilla gets the 25th spot (and everyone remains healthy), none of those guys make the team, despite having significant roles in previous years.

The good news is that all of those pitchers have options. The Twins can stash them in Rochester for a midseason call-up or to take the place of pitchers who leave at the end of the year. So the Twins are in a better position than I was with my girlfriend.

I also had a decision to make. So I went on a summer trip, had an experience that deserves its own column (where it can be used as an overreaching baseball analogy), and married her four years to the day after we met. In two more months, The Voice of Reason™ and I will have stretched that to twenty years.

(And I’ve never wanted another option.)

Gleeman & The Geek Ep 28: My Twins The Car

Aaron's car finally kicked, so we take this opportunity to go through each of the Twins players and talk about our expectations, including which car we would compare them to. (It's better than it sounds.) Here are:

• the podcasts


• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and


• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Or click on the image below to listen. Thanks!

So Thirsty

Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink.

I’ve been asked several times why they Twins aren’t bringing in a reliable veteran right-handed reliever. The suggestion that they don’t have the money when there are so many available for peanuts seems crazy. The suggestion that they already have enough options in the organization might be even crazier.

Right now, the bullpen looks like this:

Closer – Matt Capps

LH Setup – Glen Perkins

RH Setup – Joel Zumaya

LH Reliever – Brian Duensing

Other - Anthony Swarzak and Alex Burnett

That essentially leaves one spot open or two spots if you assume that Zumaya gets hurt, which seems like a pretty safe bet. The right-handed options fall into a couple of categories:

Been There. Done That.

These are the guys we’ve seen before or have been in the organization for a while, so we know their upside, which is limited. I’d put Swarzak (2011 - 55K/102IP) and Burnett (2011 - 33K/50.2IP) in this category, but you can add Jeff Manship (career - 44K/66IP) and Kyle Waldrop (2011 – 44k/79IP in AAA) and Carlos Gutierrez.

I’ll add one more: Jeff Gray, a groundballish reliever who was picked up on waivers this offseason. Last year between the White Sox and the Mariners, he threw 48.1 inning and had just 23 strikeouts - and almost as many walks. He’s been a little bit better than that in previous years, but just a little.

Closest Thing To A Relief Prospect

Carlos Gutierrez still hasn’t found his way into the majors and even in Rochester last year he wasn’t trusted to close any games. Plus, he’s 25 years old. But at least he showed the ability to strike some guys out last year, wiffing 57 in 62.1 innings. He hasn’t really shown that much his other years in the majors (just 228 K in 321 IP) and he struggled with his control last year, too.

I suppose for the sake of completeness, I could add Deolis Guerra here, too. The 22-year-old was moved to the bullpen and put up some heady numbers, but he did so in AA. But it wouldn’t be the first time the Twins found an arm they liked and had it skip AAA.

Hit The Bull

The Twins picked up a couple of Nuke Lalooshes at the end of last season (and lost a third when they exposed Jim Hoey to waivers). You probably remember Lester Oliveros who the Twins got from the Tigers for Delmon Young. They also picked up Esmerling Vasquez off waivers very late last season. Both are as likely to walk a guy as strike him out. But if either figures things out, they could be more than just bullpen filler.

Zumaya’s New Friend

To keep Zumaya company on the DL, they also brought in Jared Burton on a minor league deal. Burton dealt with a shoulder issue all year last year and a hypothyroid condition that cost him almost all of 2010. But from 2007 through 2009 he was a pretty good closer, or at least a legitimate power arm that occasionally struggled with his control. If the Twins vaunted medical staff can just keep him healthy…. (crickets, crickets, crickets)….

Yes, there are options. And there are plenty of guys to whom a team could trust the 24^th or 25^th spot on the roster. But pitchers that can be considered reliable and dominating enough to play a significant late-inning role are awfully scarce.

If you’re looking for some Twins talk tonight (Thursday), Seth is doing a live podcast starting at 9:00. He’s been working on lining up quite a few special guests, so swing by http://www.blogtalkradio.com/jack-steal/2012/02/10/sethspeaksnet-weekly-minnesota-twins-podcast and listen in.

Gleeman & the Geek Episode 27: Baseball Boyfriends

Lindsay Guentzel joins Aaron and John to talk about the MLB Fan Cave, the Baseball Boyfriends App and Gardy's Opening Day Lineup. Here are:

• the podcasts


• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and


• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Or click on the image below to listen. Thanks!

The $15,000,000 Question

Today’s mystery category? Let’s see if you can guess from the clues…

"What are the Twins television revenues?"
"Why is everybody bitching about a $100 million payroll?"
"Why couldn't the Twins sign Prince Fielder?"

If you didn’t get it, don’t be too hard on yourself - it’s a little convoluted. The category is “What questions avoid THE question?”

In Twins Territory, THE question has been: why did payroll go down $15 million following the second year of a publicly funded stadium? But because MLB teams keep their financial information so private, journalists are limited in the information they can dig up. Since that information doesn’t give the whole story - and because they want to share that information that they’ve uncovered - they find other questions so they can still publish the story. Or, they list what they found, and refer to it generally, but offer few specifics.

My pithy intro might suggest I’m being critical of that strategy. I’m not - for two good reasons. First, because these are usually fine questions to answer, and every answer adds a piece to the puzzle. Second, because I‘m about to do much the same thing.

On Friday night, in a Q&A session at the end of the Hot Stove Banquet, Twins President Dave St. Peter answered THE question candidly, if generally. He listed 3 factors:

1) The Twins stretched payroll slightly last year, and so the reduction isn't really $15M over last year's budget.

The last signing of last year's offseason was Carl Pavano, who signed for $8M. At the time, the Twins claimed they stretched a little to make that signing, and before that signing they were still looking into other players, albeit less expensive ones. So let's assume that accounts for $2-3M of the difference.

2) The Twins will need to pay more for draft picks then they did last year.

Last year the Twins paid about $3M for their top draft picks. This year the Twins will have five picks in the top 75. Thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, we know almost exactly how much those picks should cost: about $11M.

That's $8M plus $2-3M from stretching last year and now the Twins are down ~$10-11M. We have $4-5M left to find.

3) Finally, St. Peter anticipates a drop in revenue. He clarified this a few minutes later when he said that revenues from the ballpark tend to normalize on a per capita basis. In other words, as the novelty of a new ballpark wears off, people spend less on each trip to the ballpark.

(By the way, the Twins also revealed during the media luncheon on Friday that they only anticipate about a 4% decrease in season tickets this year.)

That makes sense. Since payroll is supposed to be about 50% of the total revenue, a $4-5M decrease in payroll would reflect an $8-10M decrease in revenue. That seems high to me, but not totally unreasonable, especially when St. Peter added that they aren't budgeting for 3,000,000 in attendance this year.

(That last note, by the way, could further explain Phil Mackey’s story about Jim Pohlad taking a “wait-and-see” approach. When I read that story, I was outraged: ownership was expecting fans to make a financial commitment but wasn’t willing to make one itself. Reading between the lines, I wonder if the story isn’t a little different. After last year’s disaster, and with so much uncertainty, ownership directed management to use more conservative models for anticipated revenue. The effect is the same, and it’s essentially what Mackey’s sources said, but somehow this infuriates me less.)

This shouldn't be meant to imply that I approve, or even completely understand. For instance, I still believe it is pennywise and pound foolish to not invest and additional $2M in backup plans at two especially questionable roster spots. And it isn't clear to me why some of that decrease isn't offset by increases in shared national revenues, which consistently increase for MLB teams. I still haven’t answered the question.

But it gets us closer, and leads to some good news/bad news. The bad news is that the Pohlads are not the Ilitchs - they run a business as a business, and not as a charitable organization, no matter how much fun it would be to win a World Series. But it also implies that two of those three cuts should be one-time events.

Hopefully so will this payroll reduction. Which may have been the real $15,000,000 question I wanted answered.

Prince Fielder vs. Hyperbole

Hyperbole is fun.

It is. It’s also easy. Plus, it sounds so darn authoritative. No wonder it’s so often our go to form of entertainment.

Our latest example (for baseball, because this is a baseball blog) was the deal the Tigers just signed with Prince Fielder. The Tigers suddenly became favorites to win the World Series. Which is interesting, because about a week earlier, even their candidacy for the AL Central crown was in doubt when their second best hitter, Victor Martinez, was going to miss the year after a knee injury.

Is the hyperbole correct? Is Fielder such an upgrade over Martinez that the Tigers, who won 95 games last year (but only had the run differential of an 89-win team), are a lock for the AL Central?

Let’s just do a little back of the napkin figuring on what this means the Tigers.

Some of the hyperbole is dead on. Fielder is every bit that good. The contract is being called ridiculous by a ton of baseball analysts, but if you’re going to give a ridiculous contract to someone, Fielder is a pretty good choice. We like to make fun of his size, but there are 130 runs hidden in that ample waist and his size hasn’t stopped him from playing at least 157 games per year every year since 2006. He's probably even better than you think.

A really nice metric for measuring a hitter’s offensive impact is Bill James’ Runs Created (RC). James demonstrated that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bats a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players.

(It’s a fun metric, and if you have an extra five minutes to dive into details, I did a short tutorial on it here.)

Using RC (as pulled from ESPN.com), Fielder has created 130, 114 and 141 runs for the Brewers each of the last three years. Martinez, on the other hand, is no slouch, but has generated 91, 81 and 105. That’s about 35 runs less per season than Fielder.

Fielder also hasn’t been a terrible first baseman. He’s below average, but has cost his team only about five run per season the last few years. The bigger concern for the Tigers is the talk about Miguel Cabrera moving back to third base. He wasn’t a terrible third baseman with the Marlins, but that was back in 2007. It’s not too crazy to suggest he would be one of the worst third basemen in baseball if he were to play there full time.

The worst third basemen in baseball cost their teams about 15-20 runs last year. Which would still mean that the Tigers are coming out ahead 15-20 runs. That’s about two wins.

But is that really going to happen? The Tigers might not WANT to put Cabrera or Fielder in the DH spot regularly, and those players may not want to play there either. But nobody is going to want to watch Cabrera embarrass (or hurt) himself either. And if you're going to play Brandon Inge anyway, wouldn't you rather play him at third? So those other 15-20 runs are in play, too. That could be another two wins.

Still, the hyperbole probably isn’t accurate. Fielder likely improves the Tigers above and beyond what Martinez could have provided, adding 2-4 wins. That certainly strengthens their hand, but it doesn’t launch them into a world-class level, and they’re still within reach of whichever other AL Central team puts things together this year.

Episode 25: AL Central & Cleavage

Aaron and John evaluate the "other" teams in the AL Central, which includes Prince Fielder's impact, flipping Kevin Slowey, Morneau's optimism, panicking about closers and an unexpected guest's "Twins." Here are:

• the podcasts


• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and


• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Or click on the image below to listen. Thanks!

Hot Stove League Banquet

It ain't fancy. It is fun.

If you're looking to get together for a lot of irreverent and fun Twins talk, I'd invite you to attend the 4th Annual LAST Hot Stove League Banquet and Charity Auction next Friday night. It's not the fourth annual - it's the fourth annual LAST, because this has been going on for decades now and they keep trying to stop doing it.


You'll likely see both The Voice of Reason and I there and we'll probably be taking the party someplace else immediately afterwards. I hope you can make it.

Season Insurance

The Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team.

Whether you think they'll be competitive or not isn't the point. (I do.) Whether you think they should have cut payroll or not isn’t the point. (I don't.) The point is this: the Twins have invested $99M in their 2012 team.

Now they need to spend a tiny fraction of that to insure it.

You would think that would be obvious to the Twins, who have traditionally been a risk-adverse organization, especially under Terry Ryan. They demonstrated that again this offseason. They could've waited to sign their free agents, gambling that the market would go down and they wouldn't be left without competent players. Instead, they reversed course from the last few seasons, aggressively signing almost their entire roster before Christmas.

But they also have a tradition of being extremely tied to a budget, and it appears they've hit it. But to stop now, when the free agent market is so affordable and they still have two enormous risks on the roster would be the definition of pennywise and pound-foolish.

They created the first of these risks earlier this week when they signed Joel Zumaya to a super affordble one-year deal, heavy with incentives. The contract is awesome. Zumaya's health history isn't.

Zumaya has failed to stay healthy for the last five consecutive seasons. The question isn't if he'll stay healthy. The question is when he'll break.

When he does, the Twins are right back where they were a week ago - without a dependable right-handed arm in their bullpen other than Matt Capps. (Let's let the irony of that last sentence settle in for minute.)

Zumaya has the potential to be a great signing or a dubious choice depending entirely on whether the Twins go out and sign someone else. There are a half-dozen competent right-handed relievers on the market, all of whom are likely to cost between one and two million dollars. That's how much it would take to transform the bullpen from “mess” to “average with upside.”

The second risk was made clear last week on the MLB Network in an interview with Justin Morneau.

"Most days, I wake up I feel pretty good. Usually after I get done, really exert myself, really working out hard after a long day, your brain gets tired and everything gets so worn down. It's not functioning the way it's supposed to be, and you kind of get done with the day and you go, 'Something's not right.' And you end up going home and taking a nap for a couple hours or whatever it is, and you wake up and the headache's still there and you kind of grind through it. But it's been a lot better lately.”

“A lot better.” That’s an in interesting phrase. Not “good” or “fine.” Just “better.”

Last year the Twins had a backup plan for Morneau: Jim Thome. He wouldn't play first, but manager Ron Gardenhire could move around the lineup and have Thome play designated hitter. He can do the same this year, except that the bats he is going to turn to are Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes.

Meanwhile, one of the stories of the free agent market is how many designated hitter are looking for work. Vladamir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, Magglio Ordonez and even Carlos Guillen are available and several of them are going to be available for about the same amount the Twins paid Thome.

For $2-4 million, the Twins could pick up two key insurance policies on their #5 hitter and their bullpen. To not do so, to instead roll the dice on two critical areas that already look dubious, is foolhardy.

~~~~

If you haven't taken advantage of the special pre-order price for Seth Stoh's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, time is running out. This isn't an e-book, you can throw this on your bookcase, bring it to games, give it to the Twins fan in your life. Grab it quick to help retain your sanity during these cold snaps. You can order it HERE.

Gleeman & The Geek Episode 24: Zumaya & Arbitration

This week, Nick Nelson joined Aaron and I to talk about the wisdom of signing reliever Joel Zumaya, how Victor Martinez's injury could affect the AL Central race, Seth Stohs' 2012 Twins Prospect Handbook, the arbitration process and whatever happened to last year's top prospects. Here are:

• the podcasts


• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and


• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Or click on the image below to listen. Thanks!

Delmon vs. Revere

Does Revere's Defense Make Up For Delmon's Offense?

Last week in a thought exercise, I wondered if who we could expect more out of this year – Delmon Young or Ben Revere. One offensive, one defensive. One defensively laughable, one offensively infuriating. So let’s look, sabrmetrically, at what each should be worth offensively and defensively next year.

Offense

I like using a very basic sabremetric stat to measure offensive production for players: Bill James’ Runs Created (or RC). Basically James discovered that by looking at the number of walks, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns and at-bat a team had, he could give a pretty good estimate of how many runs they scored that year. Then he used that same formula for players.

(If you’re looking for more on Runs Created, I did a short story on it back in April you might want to check out. That theory is that basis for a huge chunk of the sabremetric work out there. It also started the alphabet statistical soup that people like to mock. If you want to be able to explain the basics of this stuff to people, it’s a good start.)

Runs Created has been through all kinds of formulas and there are all kinds of pet derivations for it. I’m going to just pull mine from ESPN.com for both players.

Delmon Young created 51 runs last year, 89 the year before and 76 &45 in his first two years with the Twins. My gawd, was he really here four years? I guess time flies when you’re flailing at first pitches. He’s probably good for somewhere between 50 and 90 runs, so I’ll go with 70 as a nice round figure.

Revere played in 117 games with 481 plate appearances and created 46 runs. It’s not safe to assume he’ll be playing full time this year, but just so we can compare apples to apples, let’s assume he gets another 90 AB. That would give him about 55 runs of offense, about 15 less than Delmon.

Defense

The most widely used defensive metric, Ultimate Zone Rating (or UZR) also uses runs as its measuring stick, though this time it is runs in comparison to the average defender. We’ll take that number and add it to (or subtract it from) our offensive runs. We’ll get those numbers from FanGraphs.com.

Young has been bad defensively, but did you know that according to UZR he has really improved over the last two years? Last year he only cost the Twins three runs compared to the average left fielder, seven runs better than 2010 and 11 runs better than the year before that. My guess is that Young costs between 0 and -15 runs, and so I’ll got with -5. Overall that leaves him with 65 runs.

Revere is also a little hard to measure. His UZR in left field was also negative, but he only played there for a few games, so it’s hard to count on UZR. However, in center field he saved 10 runs, and that translates to 15 runs if he had played there full time. Generally, you would see that number go up in left field, just because the average left fielder is worse defensively than the average center fielder. So 15 runs seems safe, and it could be as high as 20. Let’s stay with 15.

And the cry goes up: But WHAT ABOUT HIS ARM? Well UZR takes an outfielder's arm into account. So for now, let's go with it.

Parenthentically, it should be a fascinating year for Twins fans as they watch a thought experiment play itself out in reality. Enormous range. No arm. Which is more important to an outfielder? I think it’s going to be “range” in a landslide, but I wonder if I’ll feel the same way after this year.

That gives Revere 70 runs and Delmon 65. I wouldn’t take it as definitive proof that Revere is going to be more valuable than Young, but they’re a lot more comparable than I would have thought.

Picture this: it’s June and you just heard about a Twins AA reliever who was named player of the week. You wonder: could he be the help the Twins bullpen needs? But you know almost nothing about him other than last week’s stats. Is he really a prospect, or some AAAA veteran who is dominating younger competition?

Fortunately, you thought ahead and bought Seth’s Twins Prospect Handbook which lists 160 guys in alphabetical order. So you look him up and get the full scoop. Wouldn’t that add a little enjoyment to your baseball season?

So, start thinking ahead and looking under those couch cushions for loose change. It’ll be out soon, and we’ll have all the details.

Have you checked out the Gleeman and the Geek podcast yet? This week Aaron and I spent the first 20 minutes dissecting the Twins dip in payroll, including why the explanations either don’t work or make us all the madder. Then we go through our listener’s questions about all things Twins. It’s like a warm blanket on this cold offseason day. Curl up and enjoy.

Gleeman & The Geek Episode 23: Mailbag!

In episode 23, Aaron & I turned to our readers for their Twins questions. Here are:

• the podcasts


• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and


• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Or click on the image below to listen. Thanks!

Gleeman & The Geek Mailbag

It's time for a mailbag episode of Gleeman and the Geek, so please send in your questions/comments below so we can read them on the podcast and respond.

THANKS!
John

Who Was 1987’s 25th Man?

I was born in 1967 which means for the first 30 years of my life, there was no internet. Those were my formative years – so how come it almost seems inconceivable to have a world where there isn’t one?

But occasionally, it still surprises me, usually around a topic from my youth. Like a month ago, when I realized I could find the song from the movie Hopscotch that I had been humming to people for a couple of decades. (It’s Rondo in D, K382 by Mozart).

The latest example was generated by the local SABR chapter’s message board. It turns out that in the 1987 World Series, 24 players appeared for the Twins (http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/1987_WS.shtml). But the postseason roster (as far as we know) is 25 players. So who didn’t get to play?

I used this question as an excuse to truck around the internet for an hour and become amazed at everything you can find out. Bear with me on the tour.....

Only nine pitchers pitched for the Twins in that series , so I though it would have had to have been a pitcher. The ones who did are starters Frank Viola, Bert Blyleven, Les Straker and relievers Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenguer, Dan Schatzeder, Keith Atherton, Georg Frazier and Joe Niekro.

In the ALCS, only seven pitchers appeared: the nine above minus Frazier and Niekro. That doesn't help.

The Twins who threw the most innings in 1987 (other than those nine) were Mike Smithson (21 G, 109 IP), Mark Portugal (13G, 44 IP), Steve Carleton (9G, 43 IP) and Joe Klink (12G, 23 IP). Nobody else had more than 16.1.

Smithson pitched all year, including a long relief stint on 9/25. Portugal didn't pitch for the Twins past 6/5 in the regular season. Carlton pitched all year, including on 9/30. Plus, he was veteran and left-handed and Schatzeder was the only southpaw in the bullpen (or other than Viola, on the staff.) Klink was also left-handed, but didn't pitch past June 3rd in the regular season.

So my best guess was that it was Carlton, but his wikipedia bio says he was never on the Twins postseason roster along with another interesting tidbit about the team picture at the White House:

"He was traded to the Minnesota Twins, where he was yet again ineffective. He went a combined 6-14 with a 5.74 ERA for both the Indians and Twins. However the Twins, who had been a bad team for most of the 1980s, would go on to a surprising win in the 1987 World Series, albeit without Carlton on the postseason roster, to earn him a third World Series ring and a trip to the White House to meet President Reagan along with his teammates. Interestingly, when Carlton was photographed with his teammates at the White House, newspapers listed each member of the team with the notable exception of Carlton. Instead, Carlton was listed as an "unidentified Secret Service agent."[12] The Twins brought him back in 1988 but he lasted only a month (0-1 16.76 ERA in four games) before the Twins released him."

So I looked into Smithson, but it states on John Swol’s website that Smithson was never on the 1987 playoff roster. That link includes a 31-minute audio interview with Smithson which I didn't listen to, so I can't tell you if he confirms that in the interview or not.

Ok, how about the other guys? There were four other guys who pitched at some point in 1987: Roy Smith, Allan Anderson, Jeff Bittiger & Jeff Niemann. Niemann & Anderson were lefties, and I gotta think Tom Kelly would've have wanted more than one southpaw in that bullpen. Niemann didn't pitch past June (or even again in the majors, so I think he's out.) And Anderson didn't pitch in the regular season for that team past May, so I doubt it's him. (BTW, If you would like to ask Anderson, you might be able to do so through his facebook page.

So maybe it was Bittiger or Smith, but I wondered what other position it might be. Hmm, maybe TK might have had a 3rd catcher on the roster for the World Series? Other than Tim Laudner and Sal Butera, the other catcher that year was Tom Nieto. He was on the roster in September, so he was certainly an option. (Yes, that’s the same Tom Nieto who the Twins recently fired as their AAA head coach.) A search on google for "Tom Nieto 1987 World Series" turned up a 1987 Tom Nieto World Series jersey. That's far from definitive proof, but that's my best bet right now.

But one of the other powers of the internet is that it can bring people together, so let’s try opening this up to TwinsCentric’s esteemed readers. If you remember or have any other thoughts or information, please let me hear it in the comments. Or share your favorite obscure 1987 Twins trivia.

Expectations Thought Excercise

Below is the opening day roster (more or less) of the 2011 Twins versus the probable roster for the 2012 Twins (as things stand right now). I want to do a quick comparison of the two but add a twist – I want to compare the 2012 player with what we hoped the 2011 player was going to do, not what they actually did. Let’s call it the Hope Index. There is a reason I want to go that way, I promise. I’m also not going to do a ton of analysis here - it's late and I'm winging it a bit - so if you want to make your own changes, go ahead. You can put your Hope Index in the comments.

Hitters

EVEN

Cuddyer for Willingham is a wash.

Carroll for Nishioka would be a huge upgrade, except this isn't based on reality, but instead on what we expected from Nishioka. We expected a guy who could get on base from the #2 spot and play average defensively. We’re expecting the same from Carroll. I’m calling those even.

I’ll call Doumit and Kubel about even.

I expect about the same out of Casilla as I did last year. I’m going to say the same about Valencia, but I was pessimistic about him last year. I expect most Twins fans would say they expect less.

Morneau will be a wash – we had a bunch of health concerns and we still do. I’m not sure if they are worse or not than they were.

DOWNGRADE

Ben Revere for Delmon Young is a tough comparison because they’re such different players, but Revere is certainly less than what we expected from Delmon. (Comparing those two in more detail might make a fun entry.)

Mauer and Span, I think we absolutely need to expect less than we did, given their injury concerns.

And the bench as a whole gets a downgrade, too, just because they lose Thome.

Hitters Hope Index: six evens and four downgrades.

Pitching

EVEN

Pavano, Baker and Blackburn are going to be even. They have essentially been the same two years in a row.

As much as I hated the Capps signing this year – and I hated it a lot – I’m not sure the Twins look any worse at closer than they did last year. They might have had a little more depth, but everyone was so unsure of Nathan. I’m calling it even.

I’ll call the back half of the bullpen even, too. I didn’t know who was going to get innings and I’m not sure it mattered a ton. I feel the same way now. I might have a little less confidence in Gardenhire and Anderson’s ability to piece something together but I also have more confidence in Ryan’s ability to dig up some arms.

DOWNGRADE

Liriano is a downgrade – we absolutely expect less of him this year than we did going into last year.

I expect we’ll be happier with Marquis than we were with Duensing last year, but our expectations are probably lower. Duensing entered last year with such solid numbers as a starter, it wasn’t unreasonable to view him as a decent #3 starter. I don’t think many folks expect that from Marquis.

UPGRADE

I would argue that the Twins bullpen setup roles look better this year than they did last year. Nobody knew who was going to be setting up and at least this year Perkins seems like a solid bet.

Hope Index: five evens, two downgrades and one upgrade.

Now, here’s why I wanted to do this: I’m trying to establish reasonable expectations for this team and I wanted to establish a baseline for how much talent this team really has. Usually one starts with how the team did last year. This team lost 99 games, but it really wasn’t this team, was it? With so many injuries, so many rookies, so many meaningless August and September games, I don’t know how to reasonably start to add wins to a 63-win team whose playing time will be so radically altered.

So instead, I’m going back to the beginning. Last year going into the season, this felt like an 85-90 win team, especially after winning 95 games the year before. And what I’ve found is that from that team I have eleven even grades, six downgrades and one upgrade.

Looking at the downgrades, I can see some hope. Liriano could become what we expected, and so could Mauer and Span. The others I’m not so sure about. That feels like a .500 team, though with a lot more downside than upside.

Gleeman & the Geek Episode 22: Marquis and Morris

Aaron & I dissect Jason Marquis, pine for some more right-handed relief, argue about Jack Morris' Hall of Fame credentials and celebrate Aaron's birthday. Here are:

• the podcasts


• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and


• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Or click on the image below to listen. Thanks!