Below is the opening day roster (more or less) of the 2011 Twins versus the probable roster for the 2012 Twins (as things stand right now). I want to do a quick comparison of the two but add a twist – I want to compare the 2012 player with what we hoped the 2011 player was going to do, not what they actually did. Let’s call it the Hope Index. There is a reason I want to go that way, I promise. I’m also not going to do a ton of analysis here - it's late and I'm winging it a bit - so if you want to make your own changes, go ahead. You can put your Hope Index in the comments.
EVEN
Carroll for Nishioka would be a huge upgrade, except this isn't based on reality, but instead on what we expected from Nishioka. We expected a guy who could get on base from the #2 spot and play average defensively. We’re expecting the same from Carroll. I’m calling those even.
I’ll call Doumit and Kubel about even.
Ben Revere for Delmon Young is a tough comparison because they’re such different players, but Revere is certainly less than what we expected from Delmon. (Comparing those two in more detail might make a fun entry.)
Mauer and Span, I think we absolutely need to expect less than we did, given their injury concerns.
Pitching
EVEN
Pavano, Baker and Blackburn are going to be even. They have essentially been the same two years in a row.
As much as I hated the Capps signing this year – and I hated it a lot – I’m not sure the Twins look any worse at closer than they did last year. They might have had a little more depth, but everyone was so unsure of Nathan. I’m calling it even.
Liriano is a downgrade – we absolutely expect less of him this year than we did going into last year.
I expect we’ll be happier with Marquis than we were with Duensing last year, but our expectations are probably lower. Duensing entered last year with such solid numbers as a starter, it wasn’t unreasonable to view him as a decent #3 starter. I don’t think many folks expect that from Marquis.
I would argue that the Twins bullpen setup roles look better this year than they did last year. Nobody knew who was going to be setting up and at least this year Perkins seems like a solid bet.
Hope Index: five evens, two downgrades and one upgrade.
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2 comments:
I don't disagree with a lot of what you say. But don't think we should have specific expectations of players. Instead we have have a range of expectations.
A lot of players last year fell off the lower end of those expectations. I think Mauer, Morneau and Span all fit into that category. This year all three have about the same upside as last year, but we now see a potential downside that we didn't see last year.
Nishioka is the flip side of that. I think we saw a lot of upside last year that we don't really believe is there any more. His downside was always pretty wide open, given his lack of experience playing American baseball. He probably hit the bottom of that range.
I think Doumit is an improvement over Kubel, if that is the comparison. He's a backup catcher for one thing. So it isn't a real direct comparison. He is also a switch hitter. He just fills a lot more roles than Kubel did.
I would move Valencia down a notch from last year. I don't think his defensive failings were expected last year. And the upside on his bat is probably slightly lower without the downside having improved much.
Nathan is probably the biggest change, if you consider range of expectations. We didn't know what to expect, but certainly his projected upside was higher than anyone on the current staff.
The guys projected to play central roles last year were Capps and Mijares. I am not sure Perkins has higher expectations this year than Mijares did last year. And there is no one with the starter in waiting credentials of Capps last year.
The expectations from Swarzak and Duensing are probably higher than any of the rest of the bullpen last year. But the tail end of the bullpen is not a huge factor in a team's success.
What I think is a real improvement is the number of pitchers whose range of expectations have a higher upside than last year's group. Whatever expectations people had for guys like Hoey, Hughes and James, there are several guys who with better upsides competing for bullpen spots. And downsides are basically irrelevant since those folks will be at AAA.
In looking at the starting staff, I am not sure that expectations for Liriano should be any different. He performed toward the lower end last year and is a year older. But he still has the talent that gave him a high upside last year.
Anyone who made a firm projection on Duensing last year was getting ahead of things. His upside might have been slightly higher than Marquis, but his downside was much lower.
The real change in the rotation is the absence of Gibson and Slowey. This starting staff has no one in reserve with the range of expectations those two brought last year.
I don't think the range of expectations for this team has the upside of last year's team. As for downside, we all should have learned last year that there really isn't one. With enough injuries and stumbles, teams can under-perform almost any realistic expectation.
put liriano in pull pen . get rid of maur, nishioka, justin m. these guys are a wish use the money to sign pitchers. time to get real stop signing everybody's
leftovers. we built you the stadium now spend the money to win
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