Sunday, July 02, 2006

Optons, options, options

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I don't have the energy to write around this, but I'll publish the data. Below you'll find a rough draft of the Twins payroll situation next year, with an unexpected and unfortunate conclusion. Assuming that
  1. Brad Radke retires,
  2. the Twins let Kyle Lohse, Shannon Stewar and Rondell White and
  3. the Twins pick up the options of Luis Castillo, Carlos Silva and Torii Hunter,

they're already at $63 million for next year, even without paying for a third baseman or a designated hitter. Data can be seen by clicking on the image below

7 comments:

Ryan H said...

List of players whose projected salaries are kind of exaggerated and what seems more reasonable:

Punto (1-1.5M)
Ford (700K)
Reyes (1M)
Cuddyer (2M)

WildWeekendWillie said...

Oh Geeky One,
Perhaps it's the unbearable futility of TheStreakForTheAges, but tell me: why the hand wringing? Sure they need 3B and DH.

So where are the funding sources for said needs, beyond what you so deftly enumerated? Hunter, for one. Ol' Face of the Twins might bite at 5 years at $9/avg if he can lope for 2 years on grass, plus have pennant hopes meantime. That would bust the nut below 2006 $ level.

Next source? Carl and Sons can ill afford to lift the payroll less than, say, 8%, simply to avoid the wretched PR that would ensue othewrwise. That makes your calc = $66.6. Since that number is too weird, we'll go with $67. Besides, we gotta believe Carl will be a "round it up" guy pretty soon.

Summary: Range of $4-7MM to fund the holes, with the FoT as the bogey. I am certain Torii will not be a 2007 Finance & Operations partner with Terry, but there's no harm in lobbying.

Bill Hall, Ryan Zimmerman and/or Austin Kearns for some combination of Lohse/Baker/Perkins. If you pull any of that off you still have a kitty of $2-3MM. So Geeky One: Chill.

HrbekIsMyHero said...

We can quibble about individual numbers...my take on a few would be:

Mauer...more like 3.5 M or less...remember one of his "years" of service time was his virtual non-year of injury in 04. Admittedly there's not much out there to compare Baby Jesus to, perhaps V. Martinez, who signed a LT deal. Anyway...knock off a mil there, hopefully.

Punto..yeah, more like 1.5 M, a Cuddyer like deal at best in arb.

Silva actually will make more like 4.35 M if he reaches the innings target projected.

No way they pay 2 m for a LH set up guy, Reyes or otherwise. 1 M tops, and my guess is serf du jour, LH or not.

All of that, which is certainly as much conjecture on my part as yours, leaves payroll at a shade over 60 M. Not a big difference, but might get you another player.

My best guess as to who might go: Castillo. There are 2b options out there next year as stop gaps...which is all that Castillo would be anyway given his age, injuries, diminishing range, etc. I would imagine Grudzielanek (3M player option with KC), Loretta (I think Bos holds his option though), Belliard, etc, would be available for maybe 4M. More savings there.

Agreed with willie, Carl has to raise payroll just a little bit...they're screwing WCCO radio which has to be for more money in their pocket...perhaps there will be more revenue sharing dough...attendance looks very good right now....

Unfortunately, 3b looks to me to be the same sad Punto/LRod/Tiff triumverate next season. Who's out there for FA? Pedro Feliz? Batista, part II. Randa? Again??? We ain't getting Zimmerman, Hall or Austin Kearns for the dreck suggested. Laughs.

Five bucks says RonDL White will be the 07 DH at a salary of 2.0 MM, (even split between the buyout $ and his non vesting contract). Of course I want odds on that bet...

THunt will be in CF in 07. Beyond that, no way. Losing his salary will just about offset raises for the holy three (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer) plus Johan and Nathan raises for 08. 09 is the salary crunch season, if Smilin Carl ain't' quite ready to part with more dough. Don't hit me with a brick but I see Johan Santana being traded in June 08 as he prepares to hit the FA market seeking 5 yrs at 100 MM.

John said...

I won't address all the quibbles, partly because they're so reasonable, partly because they don't seem to make much difference, and partly because there are so many of them and I have other stuff I want to say quickly. But thank you for the feedback. I will certainly make adjustments based on them. There are two specific points I want to address, an one other I want to bring up:

1) Raising the payroll. Maybe there will be a change of heart, or maybe expectations will get the Twins to build it up a bit. But Ryan said just last weekend that the payroll would be about $63M next year, and I don't think we can assume differently than that.

2) Hunter - That's the elephant in the room, isn't it? I'm sure he would accept 5 years/$45 (though he might also want the $2M kicker he's owed). But will Ryan want to commit to Hunter through his 35th birthday? I doubt it. Ryan absolutely digs in his heals at long term deals - even Santana only got four years. And, frankly, I agree with him. Four years is as much as Torii will get on the free agent market, and it's as much as the Twins should offer.

3) The Options - None of these is a no-brainer. Silva may not be worth $4M next year, but the Twins are going to have a hell of time replacing him for anything less. Remember, Bonser and Baker are probably already in the rotation and I can't believe the Twins are ready to trust Durbin just yet.

Hunter, we've covered. There are no in-house options, and anything out of house isn't close to replacing him offensively or defensivly, and I'm not sure there's much out there to spend the $12M on anyway.

Castillo - Punto could replace him, but who replaces Punto at 3B? The obvious answer is move Cuddyer there and get a corner OF with some pop, but the Twins aren't going to do that.

Truth is, I can handle Castillo and PUnto for another year, but the gap that MUST be filled is DH. It costs almost nothing to make an impact there, and some salary needs to be freed up for that. Maybe if enough of these adjustments that are suggested are made, they can get an impact bat there for $3-4M.

BTW, does anyone have a list of 2006-7 free agents?

hrbekismyhero said...

John

I think we agree on most everything.

However, I think they could get by with a DH by committee, so to speak, with one decent bench type bat that could handle at least some of the DH duty. Figure Mauer there for 30 games, Ford spells each OF for maybe 10 games per year up to 30-35, a few random spots for IF replacements (Tiffee, LRod), not the best solution but doable. What about that "decent bench type?" Gee, a guy who could be an emergency catcher, mashes LH pitchers, let's say, .could play 40 games at DH and a few PH appearances...for maybe 1M or less?? Hmmm, do we know anyone that fits that description?

LeCroy, cough, cough...laughs. Or Craig Wilson, which fits your description better than my idea. Think he'd take 4 - 5 MM?

As for Torii, you're absolutely right..he'd take the 5/45 but TR would be insane to give it to him. Silva, you're right, there are no better options unless you want three ? marks plus the twin terrors in your rotation. Not that Silva isn't a ?..


In other words, we're in basically the same boat as last year...no 3B no real Dh and no real money...laughs...which was your original point.

I still bet on a slightly increased payroll to fill one, not both of those two holes (3B, DH). If they're stuck at 63 M, and they may well choose to do just that, you're right, then it's the three headed monster at 3b and RonDL or similar at DH, in that a replacement for Castillo won't save them the kind of money needed to obtain a good replacement at either position.

Ah, well, TR hates free agency anyway, or so he says.

hrbekismyhero said...

John

I think we agree on most everything.

However, I think they could get by with a DH by committee, so to speak, with one decent bench type bat that could handle at least some of the DH duty. Figure Mauer there for 30 games, Ford spells each OF for maybe 10 games per year up to 30-35, a few random spots for IF replacements (Tiffee, LRod), not the best solution but doable. What about that "decent bench type?" Gee, a guy who could be an emergency catcher, mashes LH pitchers, let's say, .could play 40 games at DH and a few PH appearances...for maybe 1M or less?? Hmmm, do we know anyone that fits that description?

LeCroy, cough, cough...laughs. Or Craig Wilson, which fits your description better than my idea. Think he'd take 4 - 5 MM?

As for Torii, you're absolutely right..he'd take the 5/45 but TR would be insane to give it to him. Silva, you're right, there are no better options unless you want three ? marks plus the twin terrors in your rotation. Not that Silva isn't a ?..


In other words, we're in basically the same boat as last year...no 3B no real Dh and no real money...laughs...which was your original point.

I still bet on a slightly increased payroll to fill one, not both of those two holes (3B, DH). If they're stuck at 63 M, and they may well choose to do just that, you're right, then it's the three headed monster at 3b and RonDL or similar at DH, in that a replacement for Castillo won't save them the kind of money needed to obtain a good replacement at either position.

Ah, well, TR hates free agency anyway, or so he says.

frightwig said...

TR really has to get Hunter, Castillo, and Silva off his books. That's far too much money going to 3 mediocre players to make keeping them a reasonable option. Take that $21 million, go get at least a couple upgrades, and fill the remaining holes with cheap, in-house replacement parts.

I could live with Tiffee and Punto in the lineup, if TR buys or trades for a premium bat or two. I wouldn't mind seeing a prospect audition for the #5 rotation spot, either, but there's no reason TR couldn't use his budget flexibility to get another solid starting pitcher in the FA/trade market as well.

The Twins GM is only handcuffed if he continues to make the same mistakes of the past couple winters, dedicating too much discretionary spending towards keeping mediocre performers in a misguided effort to stem roster attrition.