Nathan's Middle Finger

For the last two years, we’ve been worried about Joe Nathan’s arm. Last week he showed the Twins that his middle finger is working just fine.

It took me a couple of days to reach that conclusion because Nathan had always been praised for being such a standup guy. He was known as a leader for younger members of the bullpen. In interviews, he did not shy away from tough questions and gave honest thoughtful replies. He obviously worked hard to prepare, exemplified by how quickly he came back from Tommy John surgery at the advanced age of 36. And he and his wife did lots of charity work for the community.

It isn’t clear the Twins appropriately valued all of that. They certainly didn’t value it enough to pay the extra $10.5M to pick up his option for this season. While they apparently gave Nathan a contract offer early in the free agency process, it was likely a starting point, no more. And when the Twins asked him to sign a waiver 30 minutes prior to the trade deadline this summer, the message wasn’t one of eternal fealty.



So, it’s not clear how much the Twins really valued Joe Nathan. But that’s also because they were never given a last chance to show it. When the Rangers came calling and made an offer to Nathan, by all accounts the Twins had no opportunity to match - or exceed - it.

Obviously, Nathan isn’t under any obligation to give the Twins such an opportunity. Of course, there’s no reason to NOT do it either – all it can do is drive up the price. He gets to choose when he signs a deal and with whom.

No, there is no reason to NOT do that – unless the player has what he wants and doesn’t need any more. It sounds like that was where Nathan was: he had just received a fair multi-year offer (almost exactly matching our phttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifrediction in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook) to be the closer for a team that has played in the World Series the last two years. What team could match that?

Not the Twins, apparently. All the Twins had in their favor was…
1. Promoting Nathan from middle reliever to closer before he threw a single game for them.
2. Having him close 260 games, giving him the franchise record for saves.
3. Five trips to the postseason, where Nathan had one save and two blown saves with a 1.83 WHIP.

There was also the matter of some financial commitments.
4. The Twins signed him to a two-year, seven-figure deal before his first game, even though his salary was still completely under team control.
5. Two years later, when they could have offered arbitration, they instead signed him to an eight-figure deal, largely because it included an affordable $6M option year…
6. But they ripped up that option year when they signed him to a four-year $47M deal.

So, just to review:
1. In the first year of Nathan’s big deal, he saved 39 games, and could have made just $6M, but instead made $11.25M.
2. In the second year he made that same amount while saving 47 games.
3. In the third year he was out the entire year with Tommy John surgery. Another 11.25M.
4. And in the fourth year he was given back the closer job, lost it, came back from injury midyear and regained it. He saved 14 games, blew three saves and made another $11.25M.
5. Oh, and let’s not forget: then the Twins paid him $2M just so they didn’t have to pay him for a fifth year.

In our podcast, Aaron Gleeman pointed out that Nathan made $47M to throw two-and-a-half years or 181 innings, which is certainly bad enough. But it’s even a little worse than that, because the Twins could have had that first year at half the price. The truth is that they paid $41M for one-and-a-half year, just 113.1 innings. In fact, had the Twins NOT offered that four-year deal, the only real impact was that they would have needed a different closer in 2009. Which, of course, is the year that Nathan laid eggs in Games 2 and 3 of the ALDS versus the Yankees, ending the Twins season.

One might think that a guy whose career literally skyrocketed with an organization might be able to put away recent disappointments. Or that the recipient of that kind of enormous contract might feel lucky, maybe even a little grateful, especially considering how it turned out. Or one could postulate that the relationships formed during an eight-year run, most of which was wildly successful, might result in a single phone call.

It didn’t. Nathan didn’t leave the Twins the way Torii Hunter, Johan Santana or Corey Koskie did, overwhelmed by a team with greater financial resources. Nathan left because he was done with the Twins. The history, the money, and the relationships were quickly forgotten.

They say great relievers must have a really short memory. Nathan just proved it.

Episode 17: Mailbag 2

Aaron Gleeman and I are joined by two great kids: Joe The Random Internet Baseball Guy and his Super-Girlfriend Kate. Together we talk about Twins news and listener's questions, including Matt Capps' return, the hiring of Gene Glynn and why the guy below still gives me nightmares. Also, Aaron reveals his top opening lines for meeting the fairer sex.

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Gleeman and the Geek Episode 16

Aaron Gleeman and I talk about Joe Nathan's departure, how MLB's new Collective Bargaining Agreement could affect the Twins and disagree on the wisdom of signing catcher Ryan Doumit.

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If you're looking for yet more audio, I'll also be on Fanatic Jack's podcast around 9:30 tonight (Wednesday). He's coming back from a self-imposed year's hiatus and is sure to have plenty of penned up thoughts.

The Doumit Gamble

When TwinsCentric looked ahead to the Twins offseason this year, it’s fair to say that Ryan Doumit was prominently mentioned. Here is his writeup for the Offseason GM Handbook:

Ryan Doumit

Age: 30 (4/3/81) | 2011 Salary: $5.1M

2011 Stats: .300/.350/.478, 8 HR, 28 RBI

When the Pirates acquired Chris Snyder from Arizona at the 2010 July trade deadline, it signaled the end of regular playing time for Doumit. After playing in 124 games in 2010, Doumit played in less than half of the Pirates games in 2011. However, he posted an OPS over .800, and his career OPS in seven seasons is .776. He has thrown out 25% of would-be base stealers in his career. Not exactly a strong defensive catcher, the Pirates have also tried him out at first base and right field in recent years. Pittsburgh has options for 2012 and 2013 at a combined $15.5 million, a lot for a part-time player, so we expect Doumit to be on the market.

And then he made it into half of our offseason blueprints. First Nick Nelson:

5) Sign free agent catcher Ryan Doumit for two years, $9 million.

With Mauer’s status hanging in the balance, the Twins need to add depth at catcher, preferably in the form of a player who could play somewhat regularly and add offensive punch to the lineup. Doumit has spent his career as a part-time guy with the Pirates, never playing in more than 124 games, but his .271/.334/.442 career hitting line is very solid for a catcher and he’s only 30. He’s not considered a strong defensive backstop, but Drew Butera can be kept around to fill that role and Doumit can also fill in at first base and in right field.

Seth targeted him in his blueprint, too:

#5 – Free Agent Signings

Ryan Doumit – C – After making $5.1 million in 2011 in Pittsburgh, he has a $7.25 million option for 2012 and $8.25 million in 2013. He will likely be non-tendered. Although he is not a great defensive catcher, he can definitely hit which would make him a good #2 catcher, DH and PH option. I’d offer him 2 years and $6 million.

(As usual, I’ll just mention – you can buy that Handbook. It’s really easy. It’ll come immediately. Doumit was mentioned NINE times in it. But best of all, it’ll make the offseason more fun and a lot shorter. Just click the button below.)

There are several good reasons for signing Doumit (pronounced DOUGH-mit). First, he’s not Drew Butera. Second, he’s flexible in the way that Cuddyer was flexible: he can play several non-defensively challenging positions.Also, as mentioned above, he hit last year. And finally, he’s still not Drew Butera.

But there are reasons he was available – and not just available, but available at 1-year and $3 million. It’s for these reasons that I’m more cautious than my fellow TwinsCentrists. And I’d like to illustrate these with a couple of hard-learned lessons:

Lesson 1: A catcher is only described as “flexible” when he can’t catch.

If he could catch, he would never be moved from catcher. You would never know how flexible he is. The problem with signing Doumit is that while he protects the Twins a bit if Mauer can’t catch, he won’t be a real option for any extended period of time. That is especially true for the Twins and Ron Gardenhire, who aren’t too likely to put up with his brand of defense for too long.

Doumit has caught over 100 games just twice in him MLB career. Those two years he threw out 19.6% of base stealers. Overall, he’s thrown out just 24.6% of basestealers. But there is another reason why you can’t expect him to catch for any extended period of time.

Lesson 2: Rate stats don’t help you if you can’t stay on the field.

Here are excerpts from Doumit’s yearly review from rotowire.com, and invaluable subscription site for MLB fans. These are yearly evaluations as captured in that moment in time. See if you can see a trend….

2004 The switch-hitting Doumit had trouble staying on the field in 2004, but if he can beat the injury bug this season he has a chance to re-assert himself as a candidate to become the Pirates catcher of the future.

2005 - Health has always been a huge concern for Doumit. The 25-year-old switch-hitting catcher stayed healthy enough in 2005 to play 100-plus games (126) for just the second time in seven seasons of professional ball.

2006 - For the sixth time in eight professional seasons, Doumit missed significant time due to injuries in 2006. A balky hamstring caused the switch-hitter to play in just 61 games for the Bucs.

2007 - The oft-injured Doumit missed nearly half of the 2007 season with ankle, hamstring and wrist injuries, appearing in just 83 games while batting .274 with nine homers and 32 RBI.

2008 - He played in only 116 games, but that number was good for the second highest mark of his 10-year professional career.

2009 - It's safe to say the Pirates expected more out of their top backstop in 2009, but injuries, slumps and the trading of numerous veterans combined to sour Doumit's season. Doumit broke a bone in his wrist in April and didn't return until July.

2010 - Concussions ruined much of Doumit's usefulness in 2010 and it remains to be seen whether he can recover from multiple bouts of head injuries.

Honestly, when I got to the part about the concussions, I laughed out loud. Of course he has concussions. In fact, he has a history of them. Last year, while catching on 9/23 he took some foul balls to the face mask. He didn’t start another game after that.

Oh, and he was placed on the 60-day DL this last year, too, with a broken ankle.

Given the Twins medical history lately, I’m seriously worried about Doumit’s future. Playing for the Twins might kill him. And if he does die, the medical staff will wait at least five days before confidently placing him on the 15-day DL.

Lesson 3: Platoon splits can lie.

Doumit is listed as a switch-hitter, and hit career splits aren’t terrible: 798 OPS versus right-handers and 718 versus left-handers. But it’s important to look at the at-bats. Doumit has had 75% of his at-bats versus right-handers, which means he’s often been hidden against left-handers, and usually that means he’s not facing the really good left-handed pitchers.

The truth is that Doumit has never been able to convince the Pirates that he was anything more than a platoon hitter for most of his career. That includes last year, when he had only 54 at-bats against southpaws. For the Twins, a platoon hitter at catcher would be fine – but Mauer also hits left-handed.

So there are warts, to be sure. Personally, I’d have rather seen a right-handed hitting defensive backup catcher signed. Coincidentally, Gerald Laird signed with the Tigers today for $1 million. But for for 1-year and $3 million, Doumit is a decent gamble by the Twins, and it could turn out to pay off big.

But make no mistake – it’s a gamble.

On Handedness, Pudge & Departures

Just a couple of notes to chew on about the Twins….

Or Left-handed. Or Any-handed.
I’ve trumpeted the acquisition of right-handed hitters for the Twins lineup. But did you know that the Twins actually had a higher OPS last year against left-handed pitchers (670) than they did against right-handed pitchers (665)? I suppose all that shows is that the team was equally dismal on both sides.

Of course, most of the better left-handed bats (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer & Denard Span) also missed several months last year. Any chance the Twins have competing next year starts with an assumption that at least two of those guys are healthy, and if they are, then the Twins will need some right-handed offense.

And Hopefully That Difference Includes Major League Service Time
Joe Christensen wrote a story about the Twins search for a backup catcher the other day, focusing on veterans Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez and Jason Veritek. Pudge’s son is also in the Twins farm system, leading to some natural speculation. And Pudge threw out 13 of 25 base stealers last year, showing defensive skills which the Twins value so highly.

His skills from the side of the plate, though, have deteriorated sharply. Over the last three years, he hasn’t cleared a 663 OPS and things got quite a bit worse last year when he hit just .218 with a 604 OPS. He’s enough of an offensive millstone that we didn’t profile him in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, lumping him into the “Other Names” section.

But as bad as that 604 OPS is – and it might be bad enough that he can’t find a job this winter – it is still 150 points higher than what Drew Butera posted last year (449 OPS). By way of comparison, 150 points is about the difference between Joe Mauer last year and Joe Mauer in 2010. Or between Joe Mauer in 2010 and Joe Mauer when he won the MVP award in 2009.

Yes, Rodriguez only hit .218 last year – but Butera couldn’t reach that plateau even if you included all of his walks. My point isn’t that the Twins should rush out and get Pudge. The point is that there is a huge difference between an offensively-challenged catcher and Drew Butera.

Ironically, Cuddyer's Departure Wouldn't Be A Departure At All
One other name that has been bandied about hopefully is free agent Josh Willingham, the right-handed outfielder for the A’s who slugged 29 home runs last year. We listed him in the Handbook as the 3rd most desirable free agent outfielder, just behind Michael Cuddyer. Here was the writeup:

Josh Willingham
Age: 32 (2/17/79) | 2011 Salary: $6M
Stats: .246/.332/.477, 29 HR, 98 RBI
Mr. Willingham, the USS Multi-Year has finally pulled into port. After playing a series of one-year contracts, Willingham looks poised for a big deal. He actually had a better year than Cuddyer, but lacks some of the hype. Still, don’t be surprised if the 32-year-old ends up with a longer deal, or one that includes a playable option year.
Estimated Contract: 3 years, $30 million

In the Handbook his name is in red, which means he was projected to be a Type A free agent, and the A’s will almost surely offer arbitration. That means that for the Twins to sign him, they must give up their second round pick to the A’s, which will be somewhere around the 45th overall. I can’t imagine that the Twins would do that, unless…

Unless that’s part of what the “philosophical differences” were. Willingham is clearly, at best, a backup plan if Cuddyer walks. And if Cuddyer (or Jason Kubel) walks, the Twins would end up with extra draft picks in the same vicinity. I suppose it is possible that they could give back one of those picks to sign Willingham.

But it’s worth noting that the Twins – as far as I can remember – have NEVER given up a draft pick for a free agent. Twins officials like to talk about their core philosophy of drafting, developing and giving opportunities to new players. It would be a major departure from that philosophy for them to sign Willingham.

Gleeman and the Geek Episode 15

Aaron, the Geek and special guest Howard Sinker talk about Jamey Carroll, the Twins Hall of Fame and new journalism.

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Good Piece, High Price

Middle infielder Jamey Carroll, who the Twins are reportedly very close to signing, is a good fit for the Twins in several ways:

1. He brings consistent, if average, defense to a team whose infield play was anything but consistent.
2. He’s been an on-base machine his whole career (.355 career OBP), perfect for a manager that loves the idea of having a middle infielder bat #2 in the lineup.
3. His right-handed bat plays nicely amidst a Twins lineup that mostly leans left.
4. He’s been relatively healthy the past few years.

That all sounds great to Twins fans, who had their expectations readjusted last year by eyeball-searing shortstop performances. Which is interesting because they had a guy like that on the roster the year before, who Twins fans sure loved to hate. That player was Nick Punto.

Carroll and Punto aren’t identical. Punto is a better defender, a switch hitter and is three years younger. Carroll has been healthier and has about 25 points of batting average (.278 career) over Punto (.249). But their similarities go beyond their infield flexibility and height (both are listed at 5’ 9”). Both have basically been viewed as very good utility players who have occasionally found themselves in the role of starter, but never for very long.

Because the Twins haven’t officially finished this transaction, it’s hard to say that Carroll will definitely be a starting middle infielder, but he’s sure being paid like it. He’s reportedly going to be making $7M over two years with an option on the 3rd year – which isn’t dissimilar to the 2-year, $8M contract with an optional 3rd year that the Twins gave Nick Punto back in 2008.

What is dissimilar is the age at which those players were given those deals. Punto had just turned 31. On Opening Day this year, Carroll is going to be 38. If Carroll performs both offensively and defensively over the next two years like he did the last two years, it is totally worth it. But for a 37-year-old, that’s far from certain. In fact, it’s probably unlikely.

(And let’s not forget that signing veteran players wasn’t a real strength during Terry Ryan’s first tenure as a general manager. This move feels awfully similar to nabbing Jeff Cirillo and Rondell White. Both were players who looked like great fits, too – right up until their skills tumbled off a cliff. I’m trying to think of counterexamples and having trouble coming up with one. Luis Castillo, I suppose, but he was 30 and came in a trade.)

Make no mistake about it: the Twins overpaid here. It sounds like there was quite a bit of interest in Carroll, so if they really wanted him, they probably needed to. The question is: why him?

It may be that Twins scouts watched Carroll and decided he was worth the considerable risk his age represents. Or it could be that this indicates that Ryan is more concerned about adding offense than defense; there were better defensive middle infielders on the market that would have been cheaper. It also might mean that Ryan wants the flexibility of having another guy who can play third base on the roster, for whatever the reason.

Usually, I’m a big picture guy, and the big picture here is a good one: Carroll is a really good fit for the Twins. If getting that puzzle piece means an extra million dollars and a second guaranteed year, that’s not such a crazy price to pay. And addressing a need like this early in the offseason can set up a team to for even bigger moves this winter.

So it’s a good move - right up until his 38-year-old body gets hurt or Mike Lambs us. At which point this looks as crazy as throwing $8 million at Punto. And then we get the pitchforks out.

Welcome back to the big chair, Terry.

Offseason Notes

We’ve been awfully insular for the last couple days, gazing at our Twins navels. Meanwhile, the offseason is rolling along. Let’s catch up on some news from around MLB and see how it affects the Twins:

In the “Grass is Greener” Category

San Francisco Giants pitcher Jonathan Sanchez was traded to the Royals for center fielder Melky Cabrera on Monday, hours before the Twins made their change at GM. Sanchez is a guy that we have profiled as a target for the Twins in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, though it was last year, not this year. He’s a big arm with little control, exactly the kind of pitcher that the Twins haven’t historically targeted, but to whom they seem to be warming.

Cabrera was one of the names bandied about back when the Twins were talking to the Yankees about Johan Santana. He’s bounced around a bit since then, and was available for peanuts last offseason, when the Royals paid $1.25 million for him. He rebounded nicely with them, becoming a legitimate asset.

The Royals are selling high with Cabrera and the Giants are selling low on Sanchez, which could be praised and criticized. But context is important here: the Royals could afford to take a chance on Cabrera – they weren’t going anywhere anyways. And the Giants are looking for another championship and unwilling to hope that Sanchez turns things around. Both teams are doing what they should do, given their situations.

Cuddy

Michael Cuddyer reportedly visited the Phillies yesterday. I didn’t think he was a good fit for them after they traded for Hunter Pence. He probably wasn’t up until the last at-bat of the NLDS where Ryan Howard hurt his achilles. Now Cuddyer’s flexibility becomes a factor as he can play first base with Howard out and the outfield when Howard returns. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play around the infield a little this season too, given how banged up the Phillies have been recently.

Cuddyer and the Phillies have been linked pretty closely for a week now, with the only question seemingly being how much and for how many years they’ll sign him. That likely depends on other teams’ interest. The Red Sox reportedly were interested in Cuddyer at the trade deadline, and if they follow through on their attempts to dump Carl Crawford, he would be a great fit there. In fact, he might be anyway, unless they see Josh Reddick taking a big step forward. Those two free-spending teams chasing Cuddy is depressing enough for Twins fans, so, I’ll apologize if the next news feels like piling on.

Remember When WE Had Money? That Was Fun.

The Phillies are also apparently close to re-signing reliever turned closer Ryan Madson. That, by itself, wouldn’t seem to be big news: while the Twins are probably also shopping for a closer, there are still plenty left. ([clear throat.] As you could find out, if you were to purchase the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. [clear throat.])

But what’s shocking is how much they’re paying for him. The deal was rumored to be for four years and $44 million dollars, significantly higher than we predicted in the Handbook. There are a couple of negative implications here:

1. It means the Phillies are ready to spend, which brings us back to Cuddyer.
2. It may mean that they perceive the closer market to be a lot tighter than we had hoped, bad news if you’re hoping the Twins re-sign Joe Nathan.

The good news? These moves are happening early in the offseason. If Cuddyer (or Nathan) are going to be signed, I’m quite sure the Twins would love to see it happen early, so they can focus on backup plans. For Cuddyer, that might mean taking a longer look at Jason Kubel.

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 14 - Philosophical Differences

You get it all AND the kitchen sink. Bill Smith is fired, Terry Ryan is promoted and Aaron wonders out loud about hitting John in the face.

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Offseason Blueprint + G&G Podcast

Well. That was giant kick to the package.

Check that. That was several giant kicks to the package. Not just this year – next year, too, which hurts even more.

Usually, when a team is decimated by injuries, they have something to show for it. The players who were injured are replaced by minor leaguers who develop some experience and a team reaps those benefits the following year. The Twins got some of that – Ben Revere and Glen Perkins come to mind – but the risks for 2012 outweigh any of those benefits.

Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span are figurative coin flips. So any offseason strategy must take into account some heads and some tails. In each case, you need to leave those players enough room to flourish if they come back strong. But you also need a backup plan for each. So let’s start there.

1) Sign catcher Rod Barajas ($3 milion) and um, “fielder,” Juan Rivera ($2 million).

Barajas is my Mauer insurance, and he adds some right-handed pop (16 HR in 305 appearances with a home park of Dodger Stadium), too. He doesn’t get on base, but he can essentially platoon with Mauer if necessary, or even take a slightly heavier load. He played in 98 games last year, sixteen more than Mauer.

Before we get to Juan Rivera, I’ll point out that his spot could be taken by Chris Parmelee, but I would really like to give Parmelee some time at AAA. Parmelee is the insurance policy if Morneau cannot play at all. I also didn’t address Span, because his replacement is also on the roster: Ben Revere. Moving Revere to center field would require finding a corner outfielder, which brings us to….

Rivera is another right-handed bat with double-digit home run power. He is essentially backing up Span AND Morneau, so I need one of their heads to, ah, come up “heads.” If Morneau is healthy, he can play first base and Rivera hits in the DH spot. I doubt Rivera can really play first base in Morneau’s abscence, but he can play right field. So who plays first base? It could be Mauer. Or it could be….

(Editor's note: since this was published in the Handbook, Rivera re-signed with the Dodgers. So you'll want to check out the names of the other thirty free agent outfielder profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook.)

2) Re-sign Michael Cuddyer ($11 million/year) and Joe Nathan ($7/year).

If you want to get all Machiavellian and tell me that money could be spent more wisely, I won’t argue with you. Some will grouse that they’re being retained because they’re two of the more popular Twins in the clubhouse, the organization and the fan base. That’s true, but that’s a very small factor. Another small factor is that they both would love to stay. But the larger argument is that they are both very good fits for this team.

The lineup needs right-handed power. The injury-laden defense need flexibility. And the bullpen needs a good right-handed arm, closer or no. For all those reasons, I’ll roll the dice here. If I end up committing one year longer to Cuddyer than I should have, I’ll worry about that in 2015.

I should mention before we go much further that I’m shooting for a payroll of $115 million, so I had $34.25M to spend (per the payroll story). I’ve spent $23 million. That leaves me with $11.75M, and I want a shortstop, a starting pitcher and another reliever. I’ll take care of the first one on the cheap.

3) Sign shortstop Nick Punto ($750,000).

Punto fields well and gets on base, and those two traits, by themselves, are a huge improvement over anything the Twins trotted out last year. I even think his third trait – getting injured – is nice, because it gives the Twins a chance to insert Trevor Plouffe (who will be on the bench because he’s out of options) or Tsuyoshi Nishioka (who will likely be in AAA, because he’s not).

For the emotionally scarred, there are other names you could insert here, too. If you really like veterans, you can try John McDonald, Cesar Izturis or Jack Wilson. If you want a little more offense, maybe Edgar Renteria. If you want to pay just a little more, upgrade to Ramon Santiago. I won’t blame you. We all have our limits.

Next we get to why I was so cheap at such an important position.

4) Sign Mark Buehrle ($10 million/year).

Most of the Twins rotation leaves after this year. Carl Pavano’s contract ends, Scott Baker’s likely does, and Francisco Liriano will be a free agent. Signing Buehrle hedges against all those defections and gives the team a veteran anchor beyond this year. But there are other reasons, too.

First, he’s left-handed, which plays well at Target Field and often in the playoffs. Second, he’s a successful veteran whose style syncs with the Twins pitching gospel: work fast, throw strikes, and trust your defense (which is upgraded). Third, if the White Sox are willing to let him walk, you just KNOW he would love to stick it to them. And finally, he’s just enough of a cocky son-of-a-bitch to fire up the team a bit. Add all that up and he’s worth the money and the mult-year commitment, even at 33 years old.

That leaves just $1 million, so I’m either trading or non-tendering Kevin Slowey, preferably for a relief arm with some Ks in it. I don’t know if that new arm will help the bullpen this year, and I don’t care. I’d love to add one more arm to the bullpen, but I ran out of money and the organization will need to figure out how to get that seventh inning setup guy.

Instead, the team added some right-handed power, a middle infield glove, a left-handed veteran starter and insured itself against last year’s injuries. It also brought back two of the better (and more popular) players from last year’s debacle. Hopefully this team will be kicking some butts instead of taking kicks on the other side.

~~~~~

Above is one of several offseason blueprints that the Twins could follow and are being pulbished this week in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. You can still get yours, if you're fan enough:

For more on the above blueprint, hear Aaron Gleeman critique it on Episode 12 of the Gleeman and the Geek podcast. Or check out last night’s effort, where we talk about Halloween weekend, the latest Twins news, answered questions from Twitter and dove into middle infield options for the Twins – all while swimming through a pitcher of New Belgium's Snow Day at Tuttle’s in Hopkins. You can find:

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Kubel's Choice and Free Agent Options

There is a possible plot twist to Jason Kubel’s free agency that people aren’t really talking about. With the news yesterday that Kubel is still resting his foot and hasn’t resumed hit offseason routine yet, that twist becomes a little more interesting.

Also, while the free agent market for outfielders is usually described as thin, that’s because it is very thin at the top level. (That “Cha-CHING!” sound you just heard came from Michael Cuddyer’s agent.) But there are some interesting names a little further down the hierarchy, and the Twins may be shopping in that section if they lose Cuddyer and Kubel.

As such, I’m pulling a section about Kubel few free agent profiles from the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook from the “midde” of the free agent outfielders list that talk about Kubel, his interesting option and some of those intriguing names. But first, three things about the handbook:

First, THANK YOU to everyone that has taken advantage of the 40% discounted presale price. We appreciate the support. It's really humbling and exciting that a product this in-depth has hundreds, heading towards thousands, of supporters.

We also appreciate your courage. While the iPad and Kimble have made buying electronic content more commonplace, I still estimate at least 85% of the population wouldn’t consider buying an ebook, just because it’s a little out of their comfort zone. I get that – we all trend to that which we have done before. We appreciate you taking a chance.

Finally, today is possibly the last day to get it at the $5.99 price. It ends when the World Series does. You can do so using this button:

And again, THANKS.

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From the Twins Free Agent Decisions area:

Jason Kubel

Kubel is a Type B free agent, and the Twins will offer him arbitration. I suspect he’ll turn that down, but it wouldn’t be absolutely crazy for him to accept it. After two sub-par years, he’s young enough that he could decide to play for one more year and try the free agent market again next year, after a better season.

If he decides to test the market, he’ll find himself among the top five most desirable outfielder names – and the youngest of them, too. At just 29 years old, he could easily be seen as a steal – a guy just hitting his prime that is overlooked because of some bigger names. A three-year deal for a reasonable number (~$20M) would fill a need for some teams and still allow Kubel another chance at free agency when he’s just 32. Would the Twins be interested in him at that number?

It might depend on the timing, more than the money. The Twins would certainly be more interested in retaining Cuddyer than Kubel, partly because the Twins need more right-handed hitters in their lineup and partly because of Cuddyer’s leadership in the clubhouse. If another team is aggressive and makes Kubel decide before Cuddyer signs, the Twins might not be ready to ante up.

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From Free Agent Outfielders section

Coco Crisp

Age: 31 (11/1/79) | 2011 Salary: $5.75M

Stats: .264/.314/.379, 8 HR, 54 RBI

He plays center field, he gets on base at a reasonable clip, he’s got a little power and he stole 43 bases this year. He’s basically everything the Twins would like Denard Span to be. This looks like another mid-level guy that will have some clever GMs licking their chops in anticipation.

Estimated Contract: 3 years, $24 million

Jason Kubel

Age: 29 (5/25/82) | 2011 Salary: $5.25M

Stats: .273/.332/.434, 12 HR, 58 RBI

I guarantee you that there are some savvy GMs sitting in the weeds, targeting a 29-year-old with a career OPS of 833 versus right-handed pitchers, despite an injury-plagued year with a bad foot. The question is whether he’ll take a multi-year deal for ~$6M per year or prefer a one-year deal for more money and try to increase his value. I kind of bet the former.

Estimated Contract: 3 years, $20 million

Cody Ross

Age: 30 (12/23/80) | 2011 Salary: $6.3M

Stats: .240/.325/.405, 14 HR, 52 RBI

He’s young and he’ll always have that 2010 playoffs run. He also put up his substandard OPS in AT&T Park, which should count for something.

Estimated Contract: 2 years, $10 million

David DeJesus

Age: 31 (12/20/79) | 2011 Salary: $6M

Stats: .240/.323/.376, 10 HR, 46 RBI

I’d like to call him yet another sleeper, except for this thumb thing. A torn ligament in his thumb cost him the second half of 2010, after which the Royals traded him. He played out his last year with the A’s, really struggled to the point where he was platooning, and then missed time with soreness in the same thumb. GMs might be wondering if that is a lingering problem. Before last year, he was an on-base machine, so I think he’ll have his choice of some decent one-year “prove it” offers.

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5.5 million (plus incentives)

Johnny Damon

Age: 37 (11/5/73) | 2011 Salary: $5.25M

Stats: .261/.326/.418, 16 HR, 73 RBI

He played mostly designated hitter for Rays, but 37-year-old beggars can’t be choosers. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if someone would let him play left field, which would lessen the negative impact of his weak arm. His offensive numbers improved over last year, so one way or the other, I think there’s a job out there.

Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million

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While you’re waiting for the Handbook to arrive, there is still lots of other Twins stuff to check out:

• Parker asks whether re-signing Joe Nathan is a good idea for the Twins – by looking at his velocity throughout the year and pitch charts that map his control. That’s the kind of analysis that is a level (or three) deeper than most sportswriters will go.

• If you’re more of a listener, Seth has links to his Weekly Minnesota Twins Podcast, the granddaddy of Twins podcasts. This week the Twins in the Arizona Fall League and about how a Twins prospect led Team Canada to a win in the Pan Am games this week week over (ugh) Team USA.

• And, The Gleeman and the Geek podcast is twice as good this week because there are two of them. We divided it into two parts and still had to cut it short because we got kicked out (maybe “gently nudged out” is a better term) of the bar we were in.

In Part 1, we talk about the latest Twins news, including how likely Nathan is to return. In Part 2, I unveil my offseason blueprint and Aaron lists other options. We also get sidetracked by topics like our comments section, my weekend and Ron Gardenhire’s aversion for platoons.Thanks again to KFAN.com for helping distribute it. Here are:

- the podcasts

- the rss feed if you want to subscribe and

- the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 11.2 John's Offseason Blueprint

In part 2 of this week's episode, I review my offseason blueprint, Aaron and I argue for way too long about Ron Gardenhire and platoons, and we close down the bar. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).

And please don't forget that the 40% discount for the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook ends the last day of the World Series, which could be today. You can still pick it up for just $5.99 by clicking the button below:

THANKS!

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 11.1:- Twins News

This week's episode is going to be broken into two parts, because Aaron and I just cannot shut up. Today's is 40 minutes and we talk about Twins news: Nathan's option being declined, Thome's future, the 40 man roster drops and the stasis of the medical staff. Then we preview some offseason blueprint talk from the release of the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. But you'll need to wait until tomorrow for that conclusion. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe).

On Brian Dozier and Legitimacy

Just a heads up: Brian Dozier is profiled and listed as the 77th best prospect in the majors over at the Seedlings to Stars web site. You can read the whole thing here. The summary: what happened last year was nice, but he's going to need to show it again to legitimize himself as a possible major league regular. But it raises some fun (for Twins fans) points about how good he could be.

I should also mention that Dozier is also covered in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, along with a whole host of other prospects and options. One of my favorite sections is Seth Stohs "Organizational Depth Chart," which evaluates the hierarchy if the Twins system, position by position. If you are ever wondering questions like "Just who else is in the Twins system at catcher/shortstop/right field?" it is an invaluable research, not just for the offseason, but for the whole year.

And, of course, you can save 40% on the cost of the ebook for a couple more days - the presale deal ends when the World Series does. Just click on the button below, you'll get the pdf the day after the World Series and THANK YOU for your support.

Grading the Relievers

As Nick happily announced yesterday, the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook e-book will be available the day after the World Series. It provides 135 pages or 26,000+ words (and counting) of analysis on what the Twins might do over the next few months, including full run-downs of the free agent market, trade targets, arbitration eligibles, 40-man roster decisions and player grades. You can buy it at:

THANKS for your support! As a taste (and because it’s MEA weekend, and I have a family to attend to), here is a section of the player grades. This is from the section about (dah, dah, DUUUHHHH!) the bullpen:

Alex Burnett

Grade: D+

The Twins seem to feel like Burnett should be a good relief pitcher, but we haven’t seen it yet except for short stretches. He doesn’t look like he can be dominant (just 5.9 K/9), he doesn’t have exceptional control (3.7 BB/9) and he had an overall negative impact when games were on the line (-1.21 WPA). In fact that’s the lowest WPA for a Twins reliever this year. Which means Burnett actually had a bigger negative impact than Matt Capps (albeit at a much lower cost).

The question is: what do the Twins do with him next? He isn’t especially effective against right-handed hitters – in fact, they hit him much better (978 OPS) than lefties (692 OPS) this last year. He wasn’t especially dominant (7 K/9) in the minors, so it’s not like the team should be grooming him for a setup role. I guess he might be a decent low-level bullpen option, but those guys aren’t hard to find, and why not invest those innings in someone with some upside?

Matt Capps

Grade: C+

Fans’ disgust with Capps isn’t entirely his fault, but rather the situation the Twins put him in. Capps didn’t trade away Wilson Ramos (whose 779 OPS for the Nationals might have been pretty handy for a catcher this year). Capps didn’t demand the Twins offer him arbitration and pay him over $7 million. And Capps didn’t fail to fill out the bullpen, leaving himself in a position where so much was riding on his success. Those all fall on the Twins front office, which has just plain overvalued a reliever who was slightly above average. To succeed, Capps would have had to live up to crazy expectations.

Instead, he was average except in one very important area – he gave up about two more home runs (10 in 65.2 IP) than one would expect. Just about everything else was near or at his career rates, except strikeouts, but that didn’t affect his hit rate or his walk rate. So Capps wasn’t too different than what one should have expected from Matt Capps – but that wasn’t what the Twins thought they had.

Joe Nathan

Grade: B+

Yes, he lost his closer role within two weeks of the beginning of the season. Yes, he spent a month on the DL. But for a 36-year-old coming off Tommy John just 12 months earlier, he had a remarkable season, especially after that DL stint.

From June through September, he regained the closer role, set the Twins all-time record in saves, struck out a guy per inning, posted a WHIP under 1.00 and a WPA of .91. That isn’t quite vintage Nathan, but it’s close and it’s way, way better than anyone could have expected. If he feels like he should get a closer’s contract again, even at 37 years old, he’s justified.

There are seven more members of the bullpen that we grade and fully 27 free agent relievers that that we evaluate as replacements. The Handbook has become our flagship product, and you only have a few more days to get it at the discounted price of $5.99 (down from $9.99). For the last two years we have happily offered refunds to anyone who was not satisfied. I have yet to write that check.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 10 Twins vs Rays

Aaron and John go to Senser's in Bloomington with special guest Jason Collette from DRaysBay.com and BaseballProspectus.com. There is a lot of talk about how the Rays and Twins are similar and different. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)

Tigers Still Have Claws

As I watched the Tigers season end this weekend, I couldn’t help but wonder what the 2012 offseason holds for them. The answer I came up with isn’t as bad as I thought for Twins fans.

This year, the Tigers payroll was $106 million, their lowest in four years. That was despite signing Victor Martinez for $80 million last Thanksgiving. This year I knew they had another big chunk of essentially wasted money coming off the books:

• Fragile Magglio Ordonez and his $10 million paycheck was coming off the books.
• Oft-injured Carlos Guillen’s four-year deal runs out, giving them another $13 million
• Finally, pitcher Brad Penny’s one-year, $3 million contract will also be over.

That’s $26 million that the Tigers could spend, even if they don’t want to raise payroll to the stratospheric levels of a couple years ago. That’s enough to do some major shopping. Fortunately, more of it is spoken for than I thought.

• It looks like they’ll offer arbitration to Delmon Young, tying up $7-8 million.
• Justin Verlander is due a $7 million raise by his current contract.
• Several others are due a million dollar raise here or there.

That still probably leaves enough money to make on significant purchase – probably a starting pitcher – or several smaller purchases to fill gaps. But it doesn’t mean a spending spree which could damn near bury the rest of the division. Unless…

Unless owner Mike Ilitch really likes the taste of the postseason he got this year, in which case all bets are off. Unlike our favorite team’s local management, Ilitch has run his team as more of a passion than a business, doubling down at odd times over the last decade. If the Tigers decide to return to the $130+ million payroll level that they had in 2008 or 2010, they’ll have another $25 million of walk-around money. If that’s the case, the rest of the AL Central will have some significant hurdles to clear next year.

Free Agent Market Is Cooperating

The Twins have a fair amount of money to spend this offseason – perhaps $30-35M - which is good, because they have plenty of holes to fill. Fortunately, for many of those needs, the free agent market is cooperating.

Shortstop – Would you be satisfied with nothing more than mediocrity, or even good-glove, no-hit types? (After this year, we probably are.) Then look at this class: Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes, Alex Gonzalez, Nick Punto, Ramon Santiago, Yuniesky Betancourt, Cesar Izturis, John McDonald and Jack Wilson. Best of all, most could be had for a few million dollars.

Backup Catcher – Again, the Twins are blessed that expectations are low. If you want a fulltime catcher, you’ll need to make a trade, because the top guy is a 36-year-old platoon type. But if you just want a veteran backup that won’t kill you, the market is flush with them this year. One other name that will be mentioned a lot is Ryan Doumit, a catcher from the Pirates who is a good hitter, shaky fielder, but injury prone. If you like mixing and matching Mauer at first base, Doumit might make some sense.

Closer – In last week’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast, I wondered aloud if Twins might actually renew Nathan’s $12.5 million option since it’s really only a $10.5 million option to them (since they must buy out $2 million if they turn it down.) They won’t, because the market for closers is thick. They’ll cost you, but there are names like Jonathan Papelbon, Heath Bell, Ryan Madson, Francisco Cordero, Nathan, Frank Francisco, Brad Lidge and Jonathan Broxton. Oh, and Matt Capps. Don’t forget “closer” Matt Capps.

On second thought, do.

Starting Pitcher – The Twins could already control their rotation if they offer Kevin Slowey arbitration. If not, there are some veteran pitchers that won’t break the bank. These guys are not aces, but they’re serviceable: Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang, Bruce Chen, Paul Maholm, Javier Vazquez, Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis, Freddy Garcia and Brad Penny.

First base, Right Field, Designated Hitter – And now the bad news. Depending on whether the Twins lose Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, they could need to fill one or two of these three positions. Odds are, at least one. And the markets on them are not good.

In the outfield, there are some sneaky names, but not a lot of reliable performers, or at least not a lot of reliable good performers. At designated hitter, there are always good cheap options, but my gut feel is that the Twins will keep that spot open for Justin Morneau, and he’s getting scared enough of this head thing to not fight them. At first base, one could try Chris Parmelee, but don’t forget he came straight up from AA last year. If you’re more comfortable with a veteran on the roster, cheaper options include Casey Kotchman, Derrek Lee, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady, and Russel Branyan. Ugh.

If the Twins manage to hand onto Cuddyer or Kubel, or if Chris Parmelee is truly ready or if Justin Morneua can play first base, things don’t line up too poorly. If not, there will likely be gaps. But the market is helping the Twins with a lot of their more pressing needs.

You can learn a lot more about these guys, including their likely salaries, by checking out this year’s Offseason GM Handbook. We’ll have more announcements about that soon.

Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 9 - Mailbag

Rather than talk about Twins news, Aaron and John answer your questions from Twitter and their blogs. Besides lots of offseason talk, topics include their favorite ballparks, their favorite Twins, which actor would play Ron Gardenhire in Moneyball and Aaron's dream girl. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe)

Gleeman & the Geek Nees Your Questions!

Hey, if you have a topic you would like Aaron Gleeman and I to tackle on our podcast tomorrow night, please let me hear it in your comments below. Thanks!