Vegas Votes: Gardenhire

It's easy to forget how sure we were of things six months ago. But looking back can change our perspective a bit...

Remember how Seattle was going to contend in the AL West? How the Orioles were finally going to surge out the basement of the AL East? And how the Twins were going to be in a dogfight with the White Sox and Tigers - and that maybe none of them would end with a winning record?

Yesterday, the Twins won their 85th game while still having nineteen games left to play. I vaguely remember something about PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' player projection system, saying that the the Twins would top out around 80 wins. But I'd forgotten that the White Sox and Tigers were also supposed to have about that many wins, too. And wasn't Cleveland also supposed to be in the mix, maybe a couple of games back?

Unfortunately, I can't go back and evaluate that because I can't find those projections anywhere (If anyone still has a link to those projections, I'd love to see it.) However, I did do a story a little over six months ago on Vegas Over/Unders, so let's take a look at those and see how Vegas did, and how many wins each team has won so far.

AL West

Angels - Vegas 84.5, Actual 70
Rangers - Vegas 84.5, Actual 80
Mariners - Vegas 83.5, Actual 55
A's - Vegas 79.5, Actual 71

Vegas was right that the Rangers were legitimate, and even ended up underestimating them a bit. And Vegas just about nailed the A's. Nice job, degenerate gamblers. But there are two teams that really surprised, and not in a good way.

Like everyone else, the Mariners massively disappointed the over/under. As negative as I've been about them (starting back in January), even I said that I thought the Vegas estimate of 83.5 wins seemed about right. It wasn't close, and neither was PECOTA, which means we somehow all missed the boat. Either we're all very stupid, or just about everything went wrong for that team this year and we should give them a little bit of a break.

Or, of course, they are massively incompetent. Like, so incompetent their CEO would send out a letter blasting the local media to all his employees. Nah. That would just be crazy.

The other big miss was the supposed division leader, the Angels, who likely will fall quite a bit short of that number. Last March, I wrote:

By the way, if you're a big Baseball Prospectus PECOTA guy, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is. PECOTA states that the Angels should win about 76 games this year, or 8.5 games less than Vegas. It's the biggest spread between PECOTA and Vegas in the American League. Bet the "under" and double your money.

And for the record, I wouldn't touch that "under" bet with a 10 ft pole. The Angels won 97 games last year, and now we think they're going to win just 84? And PECOTA thinks they'll lose an extra 21 games this year?

I hope the BP faithful took my advice and ignored my mocking tone, because you would have doubled your money. PECOTA might very well end up closer than Vegas to the Angels final number. Are we really not talking about the fact that the Angels are going to lose almost 20 games more this year than last year? That seems like something worth diving into.

AL East

Red Sox - Vegas 94.5, Actual 79
Yankees - Vegas 94.5, Actual 87
Rays - Vegas 89.5, Actual 86
Orioles - 73.5, Actual 55
Blue Jays - 71.5, Actual 73

Vegas is going to end up being close on the Yankees. Both Vegas and PECOTA picked the Red Sox to win that division, but given the injuries that team went through, it isn't shocking if they end up a half dozen game below their projection. Those half dozen wins are going to the Rays instead, and it's not shocking that they would have been underestimated by Vegas. It's not like they're going to draw the fan money that the Yankees and Red Sox will.

The Orioles look like the Mariners - just everything went wrong. I'd be shocked if anyone thought they would be this bad. They used it as an opportunity to bring in Buck Showalter, who is going to look like a genius next year when they undoubtedly do better.

This year's Blue Jays team is better than last year's Blue Jays team, and I didn't see that coming, but maybe I should have. Last year's Blue Jays team outscored their opponents by 27 runs, but managed only 75 wins and 87 losses. This year's has outscored opponents by 20 runs, and has a 73-70 record. The surprise is that this team didn't slip much after losing Roy Halladay and Alex Rios. This would seem to also be worth studying a bit. After all, they're one of only two American League teams that have already passed their "over."

AL Central

Twins - Vegas 83.5, Actual 85
White Sox - Vegas 82.5, Actual 79
Tigers - Vegas 80.5, Actual 72
Indians - Vegas 74.5, Actual 58
Royals - Vegas 71.5, Actual 58

And the other one is your Minnesota Twins, but let's get back to them in a second.

Give credit to Vegas on Detroit, who is going to be very close to that number. Misfiring on the Indians and Royals suggests a gambling axiom I might want to try out: pick the consensus worst team in the division and bet the under. Odds are, with an unbalanced schedule, they'll be pretty bad.

The White Sox surprised everyone, including themselves, with their surge over the last few months. I wonder if we'll give them enough credit for it, or if we'll decide it was fluky. I'm leaning towards the latter. In fact, I kind of feel even they think it was fluky. Do you really pick up Manny Ramirez's $4M contract otherwise? Isn't that a classic "short window of opportunity" move?

But let's get back to the Twins. PECOTA had them below .500. Vegas had them eking out a division crown, but only by outlasting a bunch of other mediocre teams. It had them finishing below the Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers and tied with (blink. blink.) the Mariners. They will overachieve to the tune of 10 to 15 runs over expectations, both over the money guys and the stat geeks.

Oh, and they did it with their leading MVP candidate missing the entire second half of the season with a concussion. So it's not like they lucked out with injuries.

I don't agree with a lot of the arguments I hear claiming Ron Gardenhire should be this year's AL Manager of the Year. I don't think this is his best year. I also don't think he should get it because he's finiahed second so many times. And I certainly haven't agreed with him on all aspects of his logic or style.

But manager of the year is usually awarded to the team that overachieves the most. And if we look at what we really thought back in March, whether via stats or wise guy intuition, that team is the Twins. They are going to win their division. They are going to do so because of an awesome second half. And they not only are blowing expectations away, but are outdistancing another surprisingly good divisional rival.

If we look at the overall results, and we're honest about what we thought six months ago, it seems pretty clear: Ron Gardenhire deserves this year's AL Manager of the Year.

The Monetary Case for Urgency

Today's post is over at the Star-Tribune's TwinsCentric blog. I'd post it here, too, but blogger and the way they handle tables just makes me so mad I think I'll pass. Please click over and tell me what you think.

Thanks,
John

More Than Money

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that he’s become one of our most beloved Twins in less than a year. Truthfully, we loved him long before that. We loved him as he was making Rick Reed look forward to retirement. We love him when he was popping souvenir after souvenir above the baggy. We loved Jim even when we hated Jim.

And now that Jim Thome has crushed 22 homers, got on base at a .400 clip, and saved a season jeopardized by the absence of Justin Morneau? Yeah, we still love him. But we’re probably going to need to get over that.

The knee-jerk reaction will be that it’s about money, and while fans want to believe there is more to things than money – well, they're absolutely right. And that’s why the Twins and Thome are destined to separate.

One of the bigger myths in baseball is that it is easy to find a productive designated hitter. The stats don’t support that. This year, the combined OPS of all designated hitters in the American League is 754. That’s lower than left fielders (763) and a lot lower than right-fielders (792) or first basemen (also 797). Full time effective DHs seem like they would be easy to find, but if they are, where are they?

Meanwhile, Jim Thome’s OPS is 1042. Now that is unquestionably because he ISN'T a full time DH. He's being given favorable matchups, and he's being given enough rest to keep him healthy for a full season. And to Thome's credit, he seems to recognize this. According to Buster Olney this weekend (sorry, you need a subscription to read the whole thing):

"What Thome has learned is that it's better for him not to play every day at age 40. He signed with the Minnesota Twins to be a part-time player this year, and he tries not to do too much when it's his off day; the rest that he gives his body is part of the preparation for when he does play."

Of course, it isn't clear that Thome really had the option to play every day last year. The DH market tightened in a hurry, leaving guys like Thome and Jermaine Dye standing without a chair when the music stopped.

It's hard to believe that would be the case this next year. Clubs will still remain cautious given his injury history and age, but do we really think another contending club - the White Sox, Rays and Angels immediately spring to mind - won't offer Thome 500 at-bats as their designated hitter, and money to match it? And do we really think Thome would turn that down, even with his new "don't play every day" philosophy?

Those at-bats are not something the Twins can match, and it doesn't have much to do with money. And, frankly, given what we have seen this year, I would argue that they Twins shouldn't match it - that Thome really can't be expected to be productive through a whole year with those demands place on him and his body. Even with the injury to Morneau, Thome still has just 241 at-bats this year, and he'll finish with less than 300.

It's nice to think that Thome could come back next year, because this year has been such a great fit. But neither the rest of the league or Thome are going to be able to help themselves. The Twins and their fans will need to look for someone else to love in 2011.

Empty

One can make a pretty good argument that the winner of the AL Central is consistently the team with the most depth. When we prognosticate, we focus on starting pitching, the lineup and the bullpen, and that's as it should be - it's silly to award a division to the team with the best 26th guy. But year after year, it seems like the team that weathers the storms the best, whose bench and high minors guys fill the cracks that need filling, wins the AL Central.

I think that same thought every year, and it applies this year too. The Tigers fell off the map when their young guys stopped hitting. The White Sox have flailed for the last month, desperate for bullpen help and that extra bat that can play DH. Meanwhile the Twins have that extra bat (Jim Thome), the bullpen guy that saved the rotation (Brian Duensing) and a rookie that is becoming one of the more valuable Twins (Danny Valencia). And they've been fairly aggressive in adding depth this season with the acquisitions of relievers Matt Capps, Randy Flores and Brian Fuentes.

But the need for depth has been building lately, and in last night's 10-9 loss, the areas hit hardest were all on display.

Infield - About two months ago, I was gong to write a story on how exceptional the Twins infield defense has been. It would look silly now. The Twins lost last night largely on their inability to turn double plays - by my count they missed somewhere around 23 of them. JJ Hardy can't throw the ball to first base on the fly more than 50% of the time, and we'll let his bad wrist be his excuse. Hudson can't pivot, and we'll let his foot be his excuse. And Casilla is sometimes brilliant but mostly maddening and we'll let Nick Punto's hamstring be that excuse.

Meanwhile, Michael Cuddyer might as well add "catcher" to his resume, since he's being asked to field so many throws in the dirt. That said, it sure would be nice to have Justin Morneau's glove back at first base during this stretch, for two reasons. First, because he's pretty darn good at that sort of thing. And second, because he might be more willing to rip some of these guys a new piehole for consistently making him field that junk.

Power - Speaking of Morneau, as the Twins faces one of the premiere left-handed pitchers in the game last night, their top three left-handed sluggers (Morneau, Thome and Jason Kubel) were all hurt or mostly unavailable. The result? The Twins managed 15 hits - and they were all singles. This team is back to being The Piranhas, except that a good chunk of that feisty school of teeth are either hurt, gone or just plain slow.

Bullpen - But it's hard to rip the offense too much when they scored 9 runs in a game started by Justin Verlander. Last night's loss is mostly about the bullpen, and specifically about a strange reluctance the front office has shown all year.

It's fairly well documented exactly how much Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are being overused this year. I count Guerrier being used 18 times in the last 31 games and Crain being used 21 in the last 33 games, both of which tally to about 100 games per season pace. Sure enough, last night they were the guys on the hill blowing leads, but it's hard to blame them.

For that matter, it's hard to blame Ron Gardenhire too much, too. He's consistently lost options in the 'pen this year, whether it was moving Duensing to the rotation, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares (and Pat Neshek) getting hurt or Alex Burnett sucking. Last night you could add Fuentes and Capps to the N/A list with various ailments. So when Scott Baker went down with an injury after just a few innings, even Jeff Manship's reliable (and durable and increasingly critical) arm wasn't enough.

Gardenhire was missing several bullets out of his six-shooter last night, and one needs to ask why that is when it's September 2nd. It continues a trend we have seen all year. For some reason, the Twins don't trust the relievers at AAA-Rochester, and sure as hell don't want to rely on them, despite impressive numbers. Instead, the front office has done just about everything they could do, including trading away top prospect Wilson Ramos, to not rely on them.

That changes tonight, as the Twins try to address a brand new deficit. Remember a couple of days ago we were wondering what the Twins might do with an extra healthy and effective starting pitcher? No more. As of 8:00 this morning, we have no idea who from the Twins will start tonight's game, but the answer appears to be: nobody. Or at least not a starting pitcher. Those maligned guys in Rochester's bullpen that we have been hesitant to trust with a 4-run lead are coming up to piece together a start against the AL West leading Texas Rangers.

Late update: Oops. It looks like Seth broke the news late last night that the starting pitcher will be Matt Fox, who has been starting and relieving in Rochester this year.

Goofy? Yep. Misguided? Maybe. But desperate times call for desperate measures. And even a team that has been relying all year on it's depth can eventually run empty.

The Real Danny Valencia

So for two years, I’ve questioned Seth Stohs about his Valenciatic Crush. For two years I argued that he was overhyped. And then on Tuesday night I found myself tweeting this during a crucial at-bat:

Is it wrong to be thrilled Valencia is up in this position? If it is, I don't wanna be right.

Again, that was TUESDAY night, not last night. And Valencia rewarded my faith with a clutch hit, just like he did last night when he hit a walk-off single to lead the Twins to a 2-1 win over the Tigers.

So, was I wrong? Have I seen the light?

Well, pretty clearly, I was, because I didn’t expect this much success this soon. (Here are his minor league stats.) Last year in Rochester, Valencia has 37 strikeouts compared to 8 walks, and so I wouldn’t have anticipated much early success from someone who was having trouble reading pitches. I also wouldn’t have expected a 819 OPS in the majors from a guy who posted just a 720 OPS this year in AAA.

What worried me the most about Valencia was his age. He turns 26 years old this month, which is old for a prospect. (For instance, he's older than Delmon Young and about the same age as Alexi Casilla.) But we’ve explored that question on my blog before, and third baseman often end up being a little older, for whatever reason. Corey Koskie, for instance, also debuted as a 25-year-old, and that was a September cup of coffee.

But I was wrong about more than just his age. Valencia’s glovework isn’t at Koskie’s level, but it’s solid, and Ultimate Zone Rating is pegging him as having saved 5 runs over the average major league third baseman this year, and that’s in less than half a season.

He’s also already made adjustments at the plate. When he first came up, he was a dead pull hitter. He still is, but now he’s hitting it with authority, and at least using the center of the field effectively. That’s a real positive adjustment.

Finally, he just seems really happy to be here, soaking it in, having the right attitude. I’ve seen him signing autographs before the game, he is smiling in the dugout, he just doesn’t look like he’s taking this for granted. It’s good to see.

So who is Valencia? I’m still not convinced he’ll ever be an All-Star, but he could be Koskie, only right-handed and without the golden glovework. That would be fine with me and likely with the Twins since he could be around through at least 2016. I’m guessing that would be fine with Valencia too, because Koskie made about $26M over the course of his career.

Manny

There aren't too many one-name guys in sports, and Manny deserves that kind of cred. You know the drill - he can be scary, scary good, if only he can be motivated. You know, like in a pennant race. Or in a contract year. Or hitting in a tiny little ballpark that can inflate his numbers.

Uh, oh.

It's all right to be a bit concerned as Twins fans. When he joined the Dodgers two years ago with similar incentives, Manny hit about .400 with 17 HR in 187 AB. That's basically cross-pollinating Ted Williams with a roided up Mark McGwire. Which is scary as an opponent, and probably scarier as a media member.

Plus, he was clutch. In those two months with the Dodgers, he posted a 3.45 WPA. One way to think about that would be to say that he basically won 7 games all by himself over those two months. Another would be to compare it to the highest hitter's WPA on the Twins, which is Justin Morneau (still) with 2.69.

Think about that. Manny outdistanced Morneau by about 40% with 33% less time. He basically had twice the impact on a monthly basis - and Morneau was one of the leading candidates for MVP.

It's not silly to be worried about Manny's impact. Indeed, given his history, it would be silly to not be concerned.

For Elise

This was first published in 2002 on the first day of kindergarten. Today, Elise starts 8th grade and Riggs starts 5th grade. Good luck guys. I'm so proud of you both, and deeply in love.

------------------------------

He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.

She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."

---------------------------------

Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.

And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.

Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.

It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.

---------------------------------

Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.

He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.

But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.

It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.

He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.

So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.

And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

Gratis Flores

Twins claim LHP Randy Flores off waivers from the Colorado Rockies

What's not to like about gratis flores? They brighten up a space, freshen things up, and might even help you get lucky. Same with Randy Flores. He brightens up the bullpen, could keep left-handed batters from stinking up the joint, and the Twins might even get lucky.

That springtime hope is especially strong when you look at his numbers this year. He hasn’t given up many hits – just 22 in 27 innings, which is good. He strikes people out at a decent rate – about the major league average of six per nine innings. He’s given up four home runs, and that’s really only one more than you might like to see.

The troubling part is the walks. He has walked players about 50% more than average, but control is something the Twins (and pitching coach Rick Anderson) are pretty good an instilling. Of all the faults he could have – and let’s be honest that freely acquired talent is gonna have faults – that’s the one you might choose.

So why is he available? Because he doesn’t do what he was supposed to do – get left-handers out. Unfortunately, that’s also exactly what he is supposed to do with the Twins. This year, lefties are posting a higher OPS (776) than right-handers (702) against Flores. This isn’t just small sample size – that’s been the case over the last three years (852 vs 773) too.

Hmm. Time for a sidebar…

Whenever you see this argument made, be very wary of how many times pitchers have faced each side of the plate. For instance, you may have heard that left-handed batters hit left-handed pitcher Glen Perkins better than right-handed batters, and that’s been true, with southpaws hitting .325 vs. .287 that right-handed batters hit.

However, there can be a good reason for this: mediocre and poor left-handed hitters aren’t allowed to face very good left-handed batters. Mediocre and poor right-handed batter are. So when a left-handed pitcher faces a left-handed batter, you can assume it’s a pretty darn good left-handed batter. Of course he hits better.

That might be partly the case with Perkins. Perkins has faced three times as many right-handed batters as left-handed batters. In the normal course of games, he would probably face closer to twice as many, so it looks like he is facing a higher level of left-handed batter than right-handed batters.

For Flores, on the other hand, the opposite is true. He has faced almost the same numbers of left-handed hitters as he has right-handed hitters. It’s almost as if National League managers have gone out of their way to let lefties bat against him. Not a good sign.

Flores also seems to have become more hittable as the year goes on, and that also seems to be a trend over the last few years. But overall, those averages against him aren’t terrible. Plus, he hasn’t pitched in the American League since 2002, so there is a decent chance he could be effective until the AL adjusts. Finally, you never know how a left-hander who struggle with control might respond to Anderson – just look at the career years Dennys Reyes had here.

The bottom line is that when someone offers you free Flores, you would be foolish not to accept. Just don’t expect them to last long. Enjoy whatever short bloom they give you, parlay that into some favor from Lady Luck, and be prepared for them to turn quickly.

Your Saturday just got better.

First, you know about the Sooz/TwinsCentric Party in St. Cloud on Saturday afternoon to watch the Twins beat up (knock, knock) the Rangers. We’ll be meeting at Howie’s from 2:30 to 6:30 with Seth, Me, Sooz and plenty of others. There will be specials and raffles including two Row 6 Twins tickets. I’ll see you there.

And now we have a doubleheader. At 7:00 in St. Cloud at Joe Faber field, there is going to be a Twins Alumni Game, featuring Corey Koskie, Jim Eisenreich, Juan Berenguer, Jarvis Brown, Al Newman, Brian Raabe, Greg Thayer and even (Da-da-DUUUUH) Ron Davis. Oh, plus fireworks. You can find all the info here.

I never thought I’d say this, but St. Cloud looks like the place to be this weekend. :-)

Looking for a Bump?

This year, the Twins payroll increased almost 50% to $95 million. Next year, they’ll likely increase payroll again, and will need to given the payroll challenges they face. But how much will it go up? Can the Twins (and their fans) expect significant increases in revenues in the second and third years of a new ballpark? Is there any historical precedence for that?

There is, but it’s far from universal, and the average increase is downright depressing.

In this year’s Maple Street Press Twins Annual I wrote a comprehensive review of what other “small market” teams had done when they opened their new stadiums. I identified 13 since Camden Yards opened in 1992 and looked at how they increase payroll and how the new stadium impacted their franchise.

Today, let’s look at what happened the year after a new stadium opened (according to USAToday.com).

There isn’t a ton of consistency here. Some teams, like Baltimore, Cleveland and Seattle, all increased payroll significantly. However, in each case, there was a mitigating factor:

• Baltimore barely increased payroll as their new stadium opened. The revenues that poured in from Camden Yards remarkable success were more than people really expected, and lasted far longer than it had for previous stadiums.


• Cleveland was in the middle of a youth movement when Jacobs Field opened and that drove up salaries as those players gained service time.


• Seattle’s number is a bit misleading because they opened in the middle of 1999. Their first full year wasn’t until the next year, which is when revenue climbed 33%.

But it isn’t crazy to suggest that the Twins could increase payroll by as much as 20% next year. It isn’t common for MLB teams, and it doesn’t look like teams generally see that kind of revenue bump in a stadium’s second year. But it has happened.

---------------------------------

Anyone want to talk about last night's game? No? Fine by me.

Reminder: You're busy for Saturday's Twins Game. You'll be in St. Cloud, watching it with Seth, Sooz and I. 2:30 to 6:30 at Howie's in downtown St. Cloud and we'll have the usual specials and drawing. It's time for out-state Twins fans to flex their muscles a bit, I think.

Surprise Hero

We talk a lot about “doing the little things”. So how about a statistic that recognizes the little contributions?

I’ve talked a lot about WPA or Win Probability Added before in this space. The short explanation for WPA is that it measures how much a player increases or decreases the chances of his team winning a game.

What I like about it is that it mirrors the value that hard-core fans see, especially in the context of a game. And, since I’m a hard core fan, and since I was at last night’s game, I felt comfortable predicting that the Twins players of the game (according to WPA) would look something like this:

1 star – Danny Valencia – for his home run that broke the 0-0 tie

2 stars – Scott Baker – for throwing seven innings of shut out ball

3 stars – Michael Cuddyer – for delivering the clutch hit that put the game away.

But looking at the WPA breakdown for last night’s game, I find out that I’m not quite right. Let’s see what I missed…..

0 stars (because he ended up in 4^th place – Valencia (+9%)

That monster home run that broke a scoreless game was obviously a big hit, and WPA recognizes that. It increased the Twins chances of winning by 13%, from 57% to 70%. But that grounder in the second where Jim Thome was out at home is charged to him, too, and that hurt the cause significantly. (-7%)

1 star – I’m going to get to that in a minute. Hang tight.

2 stars – Cuddyer – (+12%)

I’m right in that the three-run double was the big hit of the night. It improved the Twins chances of winning the game by 20%, up to 90%, and that was even with the baserunning gaffe (which may not have really been a gaffe, but a ploy to make the 3^rd run scored, according to Cuddy). But Cuddy didn’t do quite as well in other at-bats.

3 stars – Baker – (+37%)

Well, I just feel stupid about this one. Baker holds a shutout for five innings in a tie game, and then two more innings afterwards, and I don’t list him as the 3 star player of the game? Brain cramp. My only excuse is that I’m a little down on Baker right now, and not completely objective.

How down? Down enough that I was ready to turn to a complete stranger after Valencia’s dinger and predict that Baker would give up the lead in the next inning. And when it was 4-0 I was willing to bet even money that Baker gave up some runs with that lead. I just don’t trust him yet. Sorry, Scott. I’m glad you proved me wrong.

Now, back to that one-star player. Who was more valuable this game than Valencia?

A: Orlando Hudson (+9%)

What did Hudson do that was great? Let’s see where those numbers come from:

1^st inning – singled to right with one out (+2.4%)

3^rd inning – walked to lead off the inning (+3.8%) – he was erased by Joe Mauer’s double play in the next at-bat, but that isn’t his fault

5^th inning – he tripled to right (+2.8%) – How did I forget this? It was only one of the most exciting plays of the game. Boy, was the crowd pumped seeing him stretch that triple. It also set up the walks to Mauer and Jason Kubel and ultimately the big hit by Cuddyer, though WPA doesn't give any karmic credit for that.

7^th inning – grounded out to shortstop (-0.2%)

Two for three with a triple, a walk, and a run scored. Plus, a couple of other attempts that fell short through no fault of his own. Not a bad night for Hudson, and one that I might have overlooked if it wasn’t for WPA.

I you’re looking for more TwinsCentric Twins notes, make sure to head over to Parker’s Over The Baggy blog where he talks about left-handed relief options that might be available.

And if you want to talk some Twins, clear your calendar on Saturday. The next TwinsCentric (and Sooze) Viewing Party will head out of the Twin Cities Metro and up the road to St. Cloud. The lovely and talented Sooze is running the show on this one. On August 28^th from 2:30-6:30 at Howie’s in downtown St. Cloud, there will be drink and appetizer specials as well as some give-aways. Those in the Metro, it’s not too far away, and those in the outstate, come on down! These events have been a lot of fun and a great opportunity to meet some of your favorite bloggers.

Off -Day Notes

Let's see how quickly I can crank out a few random observations....

Thome's Early Aggression
You can get a pretty good idea of how Jim Thome is going to do in an at-bat based on how many strikes he has. If he isn't making contact early, he's unlikely to do so later in that at-bat.

For instance, once Thome has had two strikes on him, he's in trouble. With a 0-2 count, he has yet to get a hit this year. At 1-2, he's batting just .179. At an even-2-2 count, he's hitting just .111. And at a full count, he's hitting just .161 - but has a .500 on-base percentage.

But if he connects early, watch out. The 3-0 pitch hit for a home run on Sunday is a rarity - he's only put two balls in play at that count and that other one was an out. But consider what he has done on the first pitch this year: 18 AB, 11 hits and 6 home runs. You don't want to groove your first pitch to Thome. There are similarly scary numbers on 1-0 and 2-0 counts.

It looks like Thome can either hurt you bad, or he can't, and you'll find out which when you throw him his first strike.

Mauer's Rest
Since the All-Star Break, Mauer has started at catcher in four consecutive games exactly once - and there was a rest day in between those. Before the All-Star break, he caught four or more consecutive games NINE times, including a streak of ten games, eight games and seven games. In the 30 games since the All-Star break, he has NOT started at catcher 13 times, or 43% of the time. Before the All-Star break that percentage was just 26%.

Maybe it's the rest, or maybe it's something else, but the result is he is hitting the snot out of the ball. We've been praising the starting pitching, and the bullpen, and Danny Valencia's rise and others. But check out Mauer's numbers since the ASB: .437 batting average, including a .504 on-base percentage and .660 slugging percentage. He already has 28 RBI, compared to 35 before the All-Star Break. He is carrying this team offensively right now.

Being Careful Not To Jinx
With a three game lead in the division going into tonight's three-game series with the White Sox, the Twins have a chance to really put the Pale Hose in a tough position. If the Twins were to sweep, the White Sox would be six games back, have just three remaining games to play against the Twins, and still have ten games against the Yankees and Red Sox on their schedule.

It's worth noting how the White Sox responded last year. On August 30th, the White Sox fell 6 games back of the Tigers, and 1.5 games behind the Twins. The next day, they traded away Jose Contreras and Jim Thome, on the last day that playoff rosters were set.

Could the same thing happen this year? It's hard to say, because last year the Sox were dealing with the surprise addition of Alex Rios (and his huge contract) to their roster. That might have been part of the reason that they felt they needed to trade away two rather large contracts despite still having some shot for the playoffs. But if the White Sox find themselves 6 or so games back at the end of August this year, it isn't inconceivable that they would do something similar, especially if it meant getting them out from under of next year's payroll mess.

Courage

Ron Gardenhire was absolutely right.

And I'm writing this as the enemy. I've researched studies that "proved" pitch count lead to injuries, wrote about it in three parts, and concluded that pitch counts are BS.

But I'm surprised there is even any debate about whether Gardenhire should have pulled Kevin Slowey after seven inning of no-hit baseball. I assume that most of the venom is coming from people who dislike Gardenhire as a manager, and looking for some fuel for the fire. This isn't it. And again, this is coming from someone who thinks pitch counts are terribly overused. Here was my summary of that research:

The 100 pitch count “limit” was ingrained in people’s noggins before this study. The original PAP metric had sabremetrics lovers everywhere analyzing and criticizing managers for fragging their players' arms, present company included. The revised metric supposedly brought it even more credence.

It didn’t. The study of pitch counts appears to – as Bill James wrote a couple of years later – resulted in a dead end. The evidence shows that pitchers arms are no more affected in the short or long term by 125 pitches than they are by 100, and barely affected up to 139 pitches. And pitch counts like that almost never happen in major league baseball these days.

I’m not advocating pushing the limit to 180 pitches. But maybe Bert is right: we can trust the opposing batters to indicate to a pitcher when he is done, and rely a lot less on arbitrary pitch counts.

If Kevin Slowey wasn't battling tendinitis, or didn't skip a start, I'd fully support the flack that Gardenhire is getting. But if that wasn't true, I'm just as sure that Gardenhire would not have pulled him. In fact, I think it's funny that of all managers, Gardenhire is the one getting criticized for not giving his player a chance to get an individual accomplishment.

If anything, Gardenhire jumps through hoops to get his players those laurels. He juggles his bullpen to get his closer saves. He'll nurse starting pitchers in close games to the end of an inning, in the hope of getting his guy a win. He pays close attention to milestones his hitters are reaching, and he's extremely cautious about moving players around in the field or the lineup, for fear of embarrassing them.

There is NO WAY he wanted to pull Slowey. He admitted as much after the game. Even said he would "Boo" himself for it. Anyone who watches him manage must know this. It goes against his every instinct.

But you don't F with a pitcher with a sore elbow. Slowey threw a season high 114 pitches last week - and ended up missing a start. Extending Slowey to pitch past that number is a reasonable goal that both he, Gardenhire and Rick Anderson should embrace. But not coming off an injury. That's just nuts - and whether a no-hitter was in play or not is relatively irrelevant.

Gardenhire and coach Rick Anderson showed they are willing to take the heat - from fans, announcers and probably their own team - to watch out for the longer term interested of a team and for a young arm's career. By doing so, they showed foresight, caring, courage and leadership. And that should be celebrated, not criticized.

Magic (Part 18)

"Life's like a movie, write your own ending."

- The Magic Store from The Muppet Movie

---------------------

It started with a decision in the spring of 1990. He asked her if their first date should be an afternoon at the Art Institute or a double-header at Wrigley Field.

"How is that even a call?" she replied.

The sun gleamed, the grass glowed underneath the ballplayers and the magical afternoon was made more so because he thought it was probably their last date as well; neither was from Chicago.

But he was wrong. Both traveled enough to occasionally gain discounted tickets and the 1000 miles between Minneapolis and Philadelphia wasn't as isolating as they both thought it would be. Or at least not initially.

------------------------------------------

Two years later, it was. So with $1000 shoved into his pocket and all his worldly possessions crammed in an '84 Honda Prelude, he moved to Philadelphia to court her. The courtship was fun, but not especially easy. First he had to find work during a recession, then she was assigned to a project out of town. And when the business world stopped conspiring to keep them apart, the tougher questions began. "Will he ever marry me? What's he waiting for?" "Is she really the one? How do I know?" The questions were more destructive than geographic distance ever had a chance to be.

On a summer trip out west, his questions were answered in the Black Hills. And on August 13th, when they were supposed to go to a Phillies game, he showed up with flowers, acted all goofy and suggested they go for a walk. And she knew her questions were about to be answered too.

Unaccustomed to being nervous, the proposal was awkward but genuine, and the response was delayed but jubilant. Standing together in the park, their future felt too large. Neither knew what to do, where to go, who to see.

"So do you still want to go the Phillies game?", he asked.

"How is that even a call?"

It wasn't a call, because the one place in Philadelphia where they both knew there was some magic that year was at the Vet. The '93 Phils, lead by blue-collar rejects like John Kruk, "Dutch" Daulton, "Nails" Dykstra and closer Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams had somehow claimed 1st place in the NL East. They'd won games at Veteran's Stadium in every conceivable manner, including one in which Williams got the winning hit in the bottom of the 10th - at 4:30 AM. Tonight they were playing the hated Mets and it seemed like as good a place as any to look for magic.

The electricity they felt made the game a secondary concern. She'll readily admit that she spent most of the game looking at the back of her hand. But the game slowly became the focal point when the Phillies lost their early lead in the top of the eighth. They scratched in a run in the bottom half, but were still down 5-4 heading into the bottom of the ninth.

But there was a reason this hard-nosed city loved this team. They used a crucial error by the Mets to score one run and loaded the bases with two outs. Kim Batiste, a light-hitting 25-year-old utility infielder who seemed to have a special gift for striking out, came to the plate, and.......

Grand Slam.

Pandemonium.

Magic.

------------------------------------------

Tonight they'll go to a game, like they have every August 13th for the last 18 years. But for the first time since that first one, tonight's will be at a home outdoor ballpark. They've waited years for this opportunity - and the weatherman says oppressive heat and rain will be tonight's reward.

So be it. After 20 years together, they understand all too well what comes with the commitment. It isn't always fair and sunny. They've weathered quick-forming storms and stifling pressure, clinging to each other and to the magic, even when they weren't sure why.

(Check that - especially when they weren't sure why.)

The storms pass. The pressure breaks. The magic endures. Tonight they'll celebrate that, and see if they can't find it, in the place where they both know there is plenty to be found.

Bitter Aftertaste

Blech.

The Twins rolled into Chicago with a favorable pitching matchup in two of the three games, with last night’s being the one they would most likely lose. Sure enough, they did. It isn’t going to be much fun to talk about, but maybe spitting about it for a few paragraphs will help get its taste out of my mouth.

We can start with the lineup, which include Jason Repko. I understand wanting to keep players fresh, and I understand that White Sox pitcher John Danks is left-handed. But Repko replaces Jim Thome instead of Jason Kubel or Denard Span? I can’t be too critical about it, but that move – along with Perkins being given a spot start – seems like the Twins as an organization and coaching staff decided they would be happy just taking two of three in Chicago. That’s probably not fair, but….

But boy, the guys sure played like they were going through the motions in this one. The fifth inning was nauseating. Three runs scored, pushing the lead from 3-0 for the White Sox to 6-0 – and none of those runs should have scored. First, Perkins hesitated on a bunt where he had the lead runner dead to rights. Then, the Twins had Juan Pierre picked off of first base but a poor throw by Michael Cuddyer along with missed tag by Orlando Hudson cost them that out. And the third run scored when JJ Hardy short-armed an easy throw to Cuddyer for the final out. It was a mess.

They looked sloppy at the plate too, but not any sloppier than home plate umpire Mike DiMuro, who gave John Danks a few extra inches on both sides of the plate which he did not give to Glen Perkins. Don’t believe me? Check out the Pitch Fx charts, courtesy of Erik Thompson and Brooks Baseball. Here were Danks pitches, and you’ll see several pitches (I count 11) outside both sides of the strike zone that were strikes. Now look at Perkins’. Nothing.

So I don’t face ridicule, I’m supposed to say something right now like, “I’m sure that wasn’t the difference in the game.” But you know what? I’m not sure of that at all. Danks has at least two called strikeouts on two of those outside pitches, and he got a third one when third base umpire Bill Welke called a ridiculous check swing strikeout on Jason Kubel. (Give credit to AJ Pierzynski on that, though. He did a great job of selling it. Weak minds are helpless against AJ’s Jedi mind tricks.)

And, like a lot of times when players are going through the motions, some injuries were the result. Jose Mijares strained his knee on a bizarre play near first base, was on crutches after the game, and looks headed to the DL. JJ Hardy also hurt his left wrist enough so that he was lifted for a pinch-hitter late. He thinks he can avoid the DL, but the Twins will likely be pretty aggressive about putting him on it given how that same injury lingered last time. Finally, Jon Rauch wasn’t available because his toe is black and blue. I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s addressed by tomorrow too.

So let’s wrap this one up: Twins were ready to concede before the game began, players followed suit, and umpires helped the cause. As a result, the Twins are now tied with the Sox, get to face a rested Sox bullpen tomorrow, and now need to deal with several injuries. The whole night was the baseball equivalent of a swift kick in the teeth.

Which explains the taste I still have in my mouth. Yuck.

Satisfaction

Yesterday's Twins 5-4 win over the Indians ended up being one of the more satisfying of the year. It had all the ingredients: a starting pitcher who ended up going deep, clutch hitting and a lock down bullpen. And the results - pulling within a half-game of the White Sox just prior to a midweek series with them, was icing on the cake.

The heroes are pretty obvious. Orlando Hudson had the biggest hit of the game, a two-run double that tied the game and put himself (and the winning run) into scoring position. Jim Thome's 2-run home run earlier in the inning made all those hits relevant. Brian Duensing bounced back from two miserable earlier innings to last into the eighth, and looked like he could have lasted longer.

Sure enough, Win Probability Added scores (available here) confirm those heroes. Hudson's double (which increased the Twins chances of winning by over 16%) was the biggest impact hit of the day, and Hudson finished with the lineup's highest WPA of .167. Thome was second with a WPA of .141. And Duensing finished with a WPA of .104.

But none of those was the highest WPA. That belonged to Matt Capps with .205, for protecting that one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth against Jordan Brown, Trevor Crowe and Jason Donald. It hardly seem fair that he gets credit for 20% of the win for getting past those three stooges. But WPA doesn't really know who is batting in the bottom of the ninth. It only knows that 20% of the time the home team ends up coming back and winning those one-run games in the bottom of the ninth. (Worth remembering given Wed's game against the Rays.)

As satisfying a win as it was for the Twins, it must have been pretty frustrating for those among the Tribe faithful who haven't had the life sucked out of them. As Duensing struggled (again) in the fourth inning, the Indians had a 92% chance of winning that game (according to the game log.)

Remember that Saturday afternoon game versus the Brewers at Target Field when the Twins grabbed an early lead against - I think it was Gallardo - and then blew the game and almost lost it, but finally won it in extra innings? And how we were all apoplectic, even though the Twins won? Imagine if the boys had lost it. That's what this game was like.

So, for the third time in five games, all is well that ends well. It would be nice if Duensing could try to not give up early runs Radke-style. It would be nice if the Twins could piece together more than six hits against the David Huff and the Indians. And it would be nice if Matt Guerrier's effectiveness wasn't decided by a flip of a coin, ala Two-Face.

But mostly it's nice heading into The Cell knowing that the pressure is squarely on the White Sox to show that their 3-6 record against the Twins is an anomaly.

A Few Trade Deadline Notes

The trade deadline passed on Saturday, and there were some developments for other teams that Twins fans might find interesting….

The Chicago White Sox

The Capps-Ramos deal that the Twins made had an unintended positive impact: it looks like it helped thwart the White Sox attempts to trade for Washington Nationals’ slugger Adam Dunn. And it also looks like it made the White Sox offseason a little tougher.

The White Sox completed a trade, nabbing starting pitcher Edwin Jackson from the Diamondbacks. But it appears that they did so because Jackson was supposed to be flipped to the Nationals for Adam Dunn. I’m hearing that the deal fell through because the Nationals raised their price after getting Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps. They felt it was a seller’s market.

So Edwin Jackson is now a White Sox starting pitcher, which isn’t necessarily bad news for them this year. Yes, Jackson has an ERA of 5.16 this year, but he’s a streaky pitcher who posted a 3.62 ERA just last year with the Tigers. The Sox have an excellent pitching coach named Don Cooper, and Jackson could fast become dangerous again under his tutelage.

But there is also bad news. First, the Sox didn’t get the slugger they needed. Second, GM Kenny Williams gave up two top prospects for a starting pitcher his team only nominally needed. But the final news is that Jackson is under contract through 2011, and is guaranteed to make $8.35M next year. That puts a squeeze on the Sox payroll this upcoming offseason.

For the last few years, the White Sox payroll has been about $100M. Here is how things look for next year:

They’re already at approximately $98 million, and that’s without a first baseman or a DH, or most of a bullpen or bench. The biggest name you might notice missing is that of Paul Konerko, who will be a free agent, and is carrying the Sox’ otherwise anemic offense.

It’s far from an unworkable situation (Step 1 – trade away Jenks) and owner Jerry Reinsdorf has allowed Williams to stretch payroll beyond limits before. But the acquisition of Jackson just used up most of the financial flexibility Williams had.

If the Sox have a rough August and fall back, don’t be shocked if they trade away or just plain let go of a handful of players that other teams might be foolish enough to claim. That’s what Williams did the last couple of days in August last year when he concluded that the Sox weren’t going to catch up.

The Seattle Mariners

Last year, Mariners first-year GM Jack Zduriencik was praised as one of the bright minds in the game, and had the results to show for it. The Mariners improved from a 61 win team in 2008 to an 85 win team in 2009. An improvement of 24 games in one season is remarkable.

But after Sunday’s loss to the Twins, the Mariners are now on pace for a 60 win season – a net of one extra loss after a season-and-a-half’s worth of leadership. And yet he is still almost universally still regarded as on of the best GMs in the game.

Ah, the power of first impressions.

Remember that Cliff Lee trade he made just a couple of weeks ago? It was universally praised because he managed to pry away Justin Smoak (the next Mark Teixeira) from the Rangers. But Jack and the rest of us might want to step away from the Smoak publicity machine for a bit and look at some actual results.

Smoak was demoted on Saturday back to AAA, after hitting .159 with Seattle, including 23 strikeouts and just one walk. If you include his time with Texas, his average goes all the way up to .198. And the 23-year-old’s career batting in AAA is just .255.

It’s obvious that it’s way too early to write off Smoak, but sooner or later a man is evaluated on his long-term performance, and not just the early hype. That might be something Zduriencik should keep in mind, too.

The Detroit Tigers

The Tigers acquired Jhonny Peralta last week to help plug some leaks. Looking at their lineup in Saturday’s game, I hope Peralta has a lot of thumbs, because this dike looks to be falling apart. Here’s the lineup, along with the number of career at-bats each player has:

Austin Jackson, CF – 381
Will Rhymes, 2B – 29
Brennan Boesch, RF - 302
Miguel Cabrera, 1B - 4294
Jhonny Peralta, 3B - 3442
Don Kelly, LF - 214
Jeff Frazier, DH - 7
Gerald Laird, C- 1837
Ramon Santiago, SS - 1477

That lineup contains one stud (Cabrera), one veteran who is struggleing (Peralta) and two rookies who are really exceeding expectations (Jackson and Boesch). It also contains two veterans whose primary value is their defense (Laird and Santiago). And then it has three guys who are - well, I’m not really sure what they are. I’m not really sure who they are. But I do know they aren’t anyone that the Tigers thought they would be relying on this year.

Since the All-star break, the Tigers are 4-13. They are also 7.5 games back of the division. Their next four games are against the division-leading White Sox, and that could essentially end their season, But if not, they then face the Angels, the Rays, the White Sox again, and the Yankees. That’s a brutal schedule for a team that is probably already too far back. Not to mention the leaks thing.

8 Things I HATE About the Capps-Ramos Trade

Intro, shmintro. I’m tired, and now I feel sick. Let’s count the eight little balls of hate I’ll be counting as I try to fall asleep tonight.

8. I hate that the Twins apparently didn’t value Wilson Ramos.

And I say that as a guy who argued that most of us are overvaluing Ramos’ trade value just a couple of weeks ago. But he was worth a lot more than this.

I get it – Ramos is expendable because Joe Mauer is signed for $23 million for the next eight years. But that doesn’t make Ramos worthless, and it really doesn’t mean the Twins needed to trade him RIGHT NOW. Ramos doesn’t run out of options until 2012, and he’s just 22. He could spend the next year and a half improving on his .241 batting average, and still just be 24 years old when he needs to start playing in the bigs. And then he could start slowly there, being used as a backup catcher. Or, they could try something a little more creative….

7. I hate that the Twins traded Ramos away just when we figured out that Mauer might need some rest.

If there is one message that that Ron Gardenhire has driven home over the last month, both by his words and his actions, it is that everyone seems to understand that Mauer is much more effective when he isn’t catching every game. This month, he’s resting and he’s hitting. For instance, Mauer has hit three home runs this month and all of them happened the day after he rested or was the designated hitter.

And so Ramos could be viewed as the perfect compliment for Mauer – a catcher and right-handed power bat that can help the lineup even when Mauer is resting or playing designated hitter. And perhaps they could even keep Ramos’ big right-handed bat in the lineup when Mauer was catching. Plus, Ramos would be under the Twins control for almost the entirety of Mauer’s contract.

Or we could just watch Drew Butera and his .214 career minor league batting average. Read those last five words again. And softly weep.

6. I hate that the Twins traded for a position in which they have minor league options.

If there is ONE position that the Twins have plenty of internal options, it’s that of right-handed reliever. We’ve been waiting for Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop and Rob Delaney to show what they can or can’t do for months, but the excuse has been that they couldn’t be added to the 40-man roster.

And that excuse was B.S.

The Twins could’ve place Clay Condrey on the 60-day dl back at the beginning of June, but waited until mid-July. And there were a handful of other fringe prospects that the Twins could’ve removed, but they would’ve risked losing them. And they certainly could have made room on the 25-man roster, such as sending down Jose Mijares, if they weren’t so concerned about burning one of his options.

Instead they traded away one of their better prospects for pennies on the dollar. You tell me which is more valuable. The roster moves for the Twins have been pennywise and pound-foolish all season, and the pound came due today.

By now, the Twins should know whether they really needed to trade for another reliever. Instead, we’ve seen Slama up for about a week, making about two appearances. We have no idea how Waldrop or Delaney’s stuff plays.

(And let’s not forget that Pat Neshek is still trying to find his way back up here too.)

5. I hate Matt Capps contract status.

There is a reason that Capps was signed last year as a free agent by the Nationals, instead of being retained by the Pirates, even though he was two years short of free agency.

It’s because the Pirates couldn’t afford to offer him arbitration. That’s because offering arbitration to a closer, especially a mediocre closer with a lot of saves, is a dangerous proposition. Capps has 27 saves for the Pirates last year, and will likely end up with the high 30s this year. That’s 60+ saves over the last two years that he can carry into an arbitration hearing, along with five years of MLB experience under his belt.

I can’t crunch all those numbers, but if the Twins offer Capps arbitration next year, it’ll likely at least double his $3.5M salary this year. And the next year, when he’s a Type A free agent, offering him arbitration could results in a payout approaching eight figures, so there is no guarantee the Twins will want to take that chance. Which means they may not get back those two top draft picks for Capps if he walks.

4. I hate that we are trying to portray Capps as a valuable bullpen arm.

We all know that saves stats are worthless. And even little kids can tell you why ERA is a silly statistic for relievers, so let’s not get too caught up in Capps’ 2.80 mark.

If you want a really basic stat that is fairly useful for relievers, go with Walks plus Hits compared to Innings Pitched or WHIP. It’s often listed, easily figured out, and if you list the relievers for a team in the order of their WHIP, you get pretty close to who is the best and worst are. For instance, here are the Twins relievers (with at least 10 IP) and their WHIPs:

Brian Duensing 1.05
Jesse Crain 1.15
Matt Guerrier 1.17
Ron Mahay 1.19
Jose Mijares 1.27
Jon Rauch 1.36
Alex Burnett 1.51

That’s about right. Duensing has done the heavy lifting. Crain and Guerrier have both been a step below that, but still very good. I’m a little surprised to see Mahay that high, but when you only face one left-handed batter a game, I guess that helps. I’m a little surprised to see Rauch that low, though he’s been hit pretty hard lately. And Burnett’s number got bad enough that he’s back in AAA.

Capps, by the way, has a WHIP of 1.33, which means he’s about the same as Rauch, and not one of the top relievers on this staff.

You can use more advanced metrics, and you find the same thing. I talked a few months back about how valuable Joe Nathan was by introducing Adjusted Runs Prevented (http://twinsgeek.blogspot.com/2009/10/theres-stat-for-that-adjusted-runs.html). Those stats will tell you the same thing – and it’s something you already know: Matt Capps is a slightly above average reliever who happens to have fallen into a “closer” role.

But even if you want to argue that he’s better than Rauch, that doesn’t mean much. The Twins already have several guys who are better than Rauch. And that’s not particularly hard to find, provided you don’t get carried away with saves.

3. I hate that the Twins seem to really value the title of “closer.”

I have tried for years to defend the practice of giving guys in the bullpen certain roles. I can confidently state that about 75% of the criticism leveled towards that practice is unfair and knee-jerk. And I’ve consistently defended Ron Gardenhire and the Twins for that practice for several years, because it’s worked.

But there is no defending this. It appears that the ONLY reason the Twins made this trade was because Capps was a “closer.” And not even a closer that anyone can reasonably claim has felt any real urgency, given that he’s been working in the pressure cookers of PNC Park and Nationals Park.

2. I hate the $500,000.

Why? Why would the Twins ask for $500,000 back in this deal? They’re going to need to pay Capps about $1.2M for the rest of the year, so it doesn’t cover the whole salary. They supposedly had money from Nathan’s insurance to help cover additional salary. Why does this matter exactly? What is being paid for? Are the Twins really that cash strapped?

Of course, I’m not sure it matters, because….

1. I hate that this looks like THE move.

The Twins just traded their best trade chip to add the fifth best reliever to their bullpen. What’s more, two weeks ago it appeared that the Twins could’ve had Cliff Lee for Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks – and now the Twins have Matt Capps and Aaron Hicks. Plus, it appears our hope that the Twins have money to spend at the trade deadline might have been misplaced. And, of course, there are only 36 hours until the trade deadline.

There are only five words that give me any hope at all about this trade: Shannon Stewart and Bobby Kielty. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before about trades, and that’s the best example. Plus, I generally trust the Twins scouts, as they proved again last year with Carl Pavano.

You can try and talk me down in the comments below. Or, add your own reasons you hate it. I'll likely add to it throughout the day.

Reality Checking the Geek Chorus

Really? 74 comments? I get 74 comments when I try to suggest that the 3-year, $41 million contract tied to Dan Haren’s 4.6ish ERA isn’t a bargain? That’s the cross the Geek Chorus wants to carry?

Hey, I’m game. The Geek Chorus, which is what I'm now calling the comments section, is here to provide a counterpoint – and some comic relief. If you want to argue that we as fans are currently entitled to unlimited funds from the Pohlads due to our support of this team, go for it.

Geek Chorus: Just because you want to trumpet your half-@** analyis, don’t expect the rest of Twins Territory to embrace your Montgomery Burns fetish.

Twins Geek: I don’t know exactly which of Burns’ fetishes you’re talking about – and I don’t want to. But this strikes me as lashing out at a truth. Sort of like a desperate 6-year-old, wanting her Malibu Stacy doll. She doesn’t care what it costs – it’s CHRISTMAS, dammit.

(Oh, and like Malibu Stacy, “Math makes her brain hurt.”)

GC: I’ll give YOU a brain hurt. Ok Poindexter, prove it to me. Prove to me that the Twins aren’t going to have a payroll closer to $120 million next year.

TG: Let’s take a look at the Twins recent payroll spending, shall we? This is according to USA Today (which ignores some signing bonuses, but still):

2006: $63M
2007: $71M
2008: $57M
2009: $65M
2010: $98M

The increase of $33M and 50% of payroll over the last year has an obvious source – the new stadium. Actually, if you take a look back at last season’s TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, you can see where that increase comes from. We did a pretty nice job of predicting it:

Still, you’ll notice that the Twins payroll has basically leveled off since the announcement of the new taxpayer subsidized ballpark. And while MLB (and the rest of the world) has faced a recession during that time, we haven’t seen similar stagnation in other teams’ payrolls. Overall, major league payroll climbed 7% across the board over those two years. If the Twins payroll climbed a similar amount, it would be closer to $77 million this year, $12 million higher than it actually was.

So, given that level, we’ll add a 5% increase for 2010 and another $15 million to $20 million bump from the new stadium. Add all that up and you have 95 to $100 million to spend.

GC: Is your arm OK from patting yourself on the back? So, you’re saying that the entire $33M bump wasn’t solely due to the new stadium?

TG: Actually, no, I don’t care. The truth is that wherever that new money came from, it isn’t coming again. Either it was a result of the new stadium, or it was a result of not appropriately growing payroll earlier and then also getting a smaller bump from the new stadium. Either way – it isn’t happening again.

GC: Posh. How do you know that the $97M was even the limit this year?

TG: Look back at the Orlando Hudson signing. Hudson (and a few other desirable free agents like Felipe Lopez) were sitting out there just waiting for a deal. Hudson was literally the PERFECT fit for this team – a second baseman with multiple gold gloves that could bat second in the order. And yet, he didn’t sign until February 4th for $5 million. And it was reported three days earlier that the Twins couldn’t afford even $3 million.

GC: Maybe that’s just good negotiating.

TG: It’s undoubtedly good negotiating. But it also sounds like (and there were plenty of rumors afterwards to support it) that the Twins had reached their budget at about $95M and were stretching to $97M. After all, if they had money left it the budget, why didn’t they have moved to shore up the bullpen in March when they were freaking out about Joe Nathan’s injury?

GC: Whatever. So they were at their limit. The Twins are making money hand over fist. They’re making far more money than they could have anticipated.

TG: No, they aren’t. Don’t get me wrong – they’re making out like bandits in the new stadium, but what exactly could they have not anticipated? They had to anticipate the seat sales, especially given their season ticket sales of almost 20,000 seats. Their local TV contract is fixed. Their radio contract is fixed. Their national revenues (such as TV) are fixed. Their apparel sales are split with the league. Their corporate sponsorships were set long ago. (Oh, and forget about concessions being a huge moneymaker. That’s not going well.)

Ratings are up? Great – that’s a boon to Fox Sport North. Radio ratings are up? Good news for ESPN 1500 for the $1 million they’re paying the Twins to broadcast their games. (And probably to the Twins for their radio advertising, but this isn’t a bonanza.)

It’s not that the Twins aren’t making great money. They are. It’s that there is NO WAY they are making tens of millions of dollars more than they could have anticipated.

And there is REALLY no way they are going to make tens of millions of dollars more next year than they made this year. Where are they going to make it? Ticket demand always softens in the second year of a stadium. TV is fixed. Radio is up for negotiation, but we’re talking about an increase of a million dollars a year at most (and probably not).

There will likely be an overall increase similar to what we’ve seen from the rest of MLB – about 5%. If the Twins, due to some increased revenue, add another 5%, we’re up to maybe a 10% increase in payroll – which bring things up to about $107M. Which is enough to basically not re-sign any impending free agents, let alone pay a big trade acquisition.

GC: But what about this? Didn’t the Twins already talk about a $120 million payroll?

TG: No, they didn’t. In a feel-good press conference after Joe Mauer signed, LaVelle E Neal said he and Joe Christensen walked away with the “feeling” that maybe the Twins might increase that much, given Jim Pohlad’s joviality at the press conference. Well of course he was optimistic – he had just signed Joe Mauer. That’s a long way from announcing a payroll level.

Payroll level is easy thing to ask the Twins, but they since the Bill Smith era began, they generally haven’t answered it. But a general impression on a day when the LAST thing anyone wants to talk about is fiscal reality is thin soup. I’ll stick to data, thanks.

GC: Especially when it makes you look oh so smart and allows you to defend the do-nothing front office. Pohlad is worth BILLIONS. He should be spending the money.

TG: Uh-huh. Here's 3 rules I live by. You might want to try them.

1) I don't tell George Clooney how to dress.
2) I don't tell Wilt Chamberlain how to meet women.
3) I don't tell the Pohlad's how to manage their money.

GC: Meanwhile Jhonny Peralta is joining the Tigers. How do we respond to that?

TG: Panic, maybe? After all, who wouldn’t want a defensively limited third baseman with a 697 OPS? When you have a shot at that guy, you’re got to pull the trigger.

GC: It’s more than the Twins have done.

TG: It sure is. If only the Twins could dig up a third baseman who could hit. I sure wish we had one of those. Oh, wait….

Haren Not So Reasonable

More and more when I talk to Twins fans about the trade deadline, I envision the conversation I’ll have with my kids when they get their first credit card. Ah, the freedom! Suddenly you can get those things that were always out of reach. And you’re making more money than you ever did before. Why not go get a Dan Haren? Damn it, you deserve it!

And I’m going to tell them that they actually deserve quite a bit more than that bauble. Especially when they consider the price.

Almost invariably, whenever I have heard Haren’s name mentioned in Twins trade deadline talk, the words “reasonable contract” have been uttered. (We actually had that same phrase in the Trade Deadline Primer. I almost modified it, and didn’t, much to my current chagrin.) “Reasonable” is true if you’re talking about the guy who posted All-Star seasons in 2007, 2008 and half of 2009.

But here are Haren’s stats since the All-Star break last year (over a year ago): 4.61 ERA in 240.1 IP including 38 home runs and (for those of you who care) a 12-13 record.

That’s not terrible. It’s not even bad. At the very least, he’s eating innings, and on the sexier side, there are 235 K and only 51 BB in those 240.1 IP. Of course, he’s also been pitching in the National League.

Would he have been an upgrade on the Twins staff? Sure. Even with Haren’s struggles, it would be like adding a rich man’s Scott Baker, with a little bit better ERA, a better ability to eat up innings, and the same weakness of giving up too many moon shots. And, like Baker, he has some big money coming his way – and that’s what REALLY makes him a rich man’s Scott Baker.

You know how we’re starting to sweat the $11 million that Baker is guaranteed through his next two years? Haren is going to make more than that ($12.75M) just next year. And that’s not the good news for Haren. The good news is that he’s guaranteed at least $29M over the next two years. Or, if his new club prefers, he could make $41M over the next three years.

If a player is a Cy Young candidate (which Haren was nominally last year because of his first half), that’s a reasonable contract. But if he’s posting a 4.60ish ERA and reliably offering souvenirs to the cheap seats, it’s a killer. That kind of money isn’t thrown around easily. There was only one starting pitcher last year who received anything close to that kind of money as a free agent – John Lackey, the biggest name on the market.

That’s why Haren was acquired by a team like the Angels, who have been among the most aggressive spenders for free agents in recent years. (They also were the team that lost the aforementioned Lackey, maybe not so coincidentally.) And it’s also why the package that landed him – a mediocre starter, two decent but not great prospects and a supposedly better prospect to be named later – looks so reasonable.

What would the Twins have needed to put together to match or exceed it? A comparable package might have been something like Nick Blackburn, Rob Delaney, Shooter Hunt and some very young pitcher with a high upside (Deolis Guerra?) as the PTBNL.

Would I be happy if the Twins were announcing that deal tonight? Sure. Just like I am whenever I overspend for a new toy. But I’m not sure I would be happy if my kids did it. And I’m quite sure I wouldn’t be happy this winter, with money tight, when the “reasonable” bill came due.

Unless I had a pennant to show for it.

From a Loss - Options

So, what do you take from that game exactly?

Bad starting pitching. Bad relief pitching. Bad clutch hitting. Bad defense. An ugly crowd. A loss to a bad team that was starting a bad pitcher. And it all happened the day after we thought the season had turned around. So where does one start?

In cases like these, I think it's important to prioritize, don't you? Otherwise we're likely going to lose our focus. So which of the above should we start with? I'm going to go with the fact that 60% of the starting rotation has been terrible for at least a month. To be sure, that's overshadowing other issues, but like I said: priorities.

Is terrible too strong a word? Let's see:

• Since June 1st, Scott Baker has posted a 6.08 ERA, plus, he might be hurt. Terrible might be too strong in that case, but certainly "scary" is in play.
• Since June 13th, Kevin Slowey has posted an 8.78 ERA as a starting pitcher. He's also given up five or more runs in all but one of his starts. That's pretty close to terrible.
• And since June 1st, Nick Blackburn has posted a 9.87 ERA, and hasn't lasted more than 4 innings in five of his nine starts.

These aren’t terrible pitchers - they're just pitching terribly. I have no doubt that they'll turn it around eventually. But it isn't clear that it's going to happen this season, and it isn't clear it is going to happen in the major leagues.

So can someone PLEASE tell me why I keep hearing sportswriters tell me that the Twins need an ace pitcher, no matter how much he costs next year? Or that this it isn’t worth the (never-defined) cost to pick up a Ted Lilly, Brett Myers, Ben Sheets or even Jarrod Washburn? Was Yohan Pino too high a price to pay last year for Carl Pavano?

This is silliness. I understand that, way back on April 1st, one might have concluded that it made sense to target an ace pitcher. But for the better part of a month, 60% of the rotation has been throwing (up) an 8ish ERA. That’s a pretty good recipe for losing about 60% of your games, which this team has.

Acquiring one or even two average arms would be a significant upgrade, just like adding an adequate Brian Duensing would be an immediate upgrade. To focus on a couple of premium names smells more of laziness than anything based in reality.