For Elise

Lotsa good news/bad news stuff going on today. The bad news is the Twins were slapped silly this weekend by the White Sox. The good news is that I didn't see a single game, and haven't seen one since Wednesday due to a crazy schedule, so it doesn't seem real. The bad news is that means I can't be writing about baseball.

But the really good news is that today at 9:30 AM The Chatty Chatty Princess is "promoted" out of elementary school. And as I was thinking about what that meant, I flashed back to a story I wrote on her first day of kindergarten, so I'm rerunning that today. I hope you enjoy it.

I'd like to conclude this by saying check back tomorrow for Twins news, but I'm just not sure I'll be able to dive into it again tonight. We'll see. - John

---------------------------------------------

He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.

She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."

-------------

Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.

And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.

Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.

It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.

----------

Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.

He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.

But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.

It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.

He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.

So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.

And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

Roster Tomfoolery

Life interfered with my baseball habit this weekend, so I didn't see much of Sunday's game, which means I don't have much in the way of insights. (I know, I know. I can picture the quizzical look on your face right now. "Insights? You've been providing insights?")

But the truth is, I'm not sure it would've mattered. Because three hours before the game started, Ron Gardenhire hinted during his radio show that when pitcher Scott Baker is activated (presumably for Thursday's start) the pitcher who will be sent down will be....third baseman Matt "Mother" Macri?

Mmmm. I become absolutely intoxicated whenever there's a wiff of roster tomfoolery in the air.

For those of you keeping track, sending Macri down would mean carrying thirteen pitchers on the 25-man roster. In the American League, most teams carry eleven pitchers. Some get by with ten. A few desperate ones carry twelve. The lucky thirteen happens about once a year by someone. And this year, that lucky team is our hometown nine.

The reason that we suddenly need eight pitchers in the bullpen isn't because the bullpen stinks. It's because the bullpen is slightly below average, and in particular because the wrong guys in the bullpen are slightly below average. And by "wrong" I mean "veterans who the Twins risk losing to waivers if they take them off of the major league roster".

It appears (and I'll admit I don't have the full story) that the top five names to be sent down to AAA would all need to pass through waivers. Those names are (in no particular order): Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Brian Bass, newly found lefty Craig Breslow and new bullpen member Boof Bonser. Unfortunately for Macri, his is the sixth name, and he doesn't have that limitation.

This story might be a lot more fun to write if I could build up some righteous indignation about this move. After all, it's really a result of the Twins failing to make decisions on some players they've become accusomed to. And this likely just means they're delaying those decisions a bit longer, though they appear inevitable.

But the truth is that I don't really have a problem with it. It will probably be a bit silly trying to find work for eight relievers, but that's the point of the move. The guy they trust the least right now looks to be Juan Rincon, and they're trying like hell to protect him. And what better way to protect a guy than to have seven relievers available in front of him?

We can argue if that is really worth their time an effort, but then we're swimming even further into the deep end. Rincon has declined, but he's not terrible. We don't know the full story. Maybe those elbow rumors true, and they think he needs some time to recover? Or less work? Or are they working on fixing something in his delivery? There are plenty of valid reasons to want to buy him some time, beyond his thirteen-year history with the organization.

And the negative effects seem to be miminal. There will be only one backup infielder for all four spots, and that person will usually be Brendan Harris. Harris is a good bench bat, and is an especially nice option because he can even pinch hit for Lamb against lefties. Plus, he is limited, but not embarassing, at three of the infield spots. And there's plenty of other flexibility. Casilla can backup at short, Punto can backup at second and third, and Lamb can backup at first. So can Michael Cuddyer.

(And I'll admit, I'm secretly hoping that the Twins work themselves into some situation where Michael Cuddyer ends up playing third base again for a few frames. I know Cuddy has his share of issues right now, but I can't believe there is ten times as much chatter about Joe Mauer playing third base as there is about Cuddyer moving back there. Mauer has never played a single game there. Cuddyer played there for most of the 2005 season. And he wasn't moved because he couldn't field. He was moved because it supposedly helped his hitting.)

Assuming people stay relatively healthy (Yes, Mr. Punto, I'm looking at you.) the biggest downside is that this limits Gardenhire to only being able to use one pinch-hitting move late most games. Because if Craig Monroe pinch hits for someone like Nick Punto, then Harris will need to replace him. Given some of Monroe's late game heroics, and the fact that the Twins would probably like to pinch hit for Casilla on occasion too, that's not a trivial option to surrender.

But this biggest question about this team right now, at least in my mind, is sorting out the bullpen. This move buys a little more time for that group to decide which ones will be good and which ones will be gone. And after this move stretches his roster to its limit, "gone" will be the only other option Gardenhire will have.

Friday Comments

Hey gang, I promised I would try to address comments from the week before in Friday's entry, so let's take another stab at it this week...

Slamming The Door: What's It Worth?

Ken said:
"because a pitcher must pitch at least a half inning to get The Save"
Surely that's some kind of editing mistake. I know that you know that a pitcher can get a save by getting only the last out of the game.

Y ou know, I do know that, but here's the rule, from Rule 10.19 of the Rules of Baseball. It says that the official scorer shall credit a pitcher with a save when such pitcher meets ALL four of the following conditions:

1. He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team
2. He is not the winning pitcher
3. He is credited with at least ⅓ of an inning pitched
4. He satisfies one of the following conditions:

1. He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning
2. He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck
3. He pitches for at least three innings

So I thought you could get a save just by getting out the last batter two. But doesn't the 3rd condition up there preclude that? I'll be interested in everyone's comment on that.

twayn said...
Billy Beer, mood rings, pet rocks, CB radios, BJ & the Bear. Wait, where was I? Oh, yeah. Interesting how the rise of The Save coincides with the success of closers like Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Dennis Eckersley. Their dominance probably had a lot to do with the inflation in the value of that particular statistic. Oh, wow. Inflation. WIN buttons. The oil embargo. The hostage crisis. Burt Reynolds...

Terry, I like you so I'm going to try and forget that you DARED to defame CB radios and Burt Reynolds. Without them, would we have C.W. McCall? We got a great big convoy, rockin on through the night. Yeah, we got a great big convoy, ain't she a beautiful sight. CON-VOY!

TT said...
There does not appear to by any correlation between the creation of the save as a statistic and the rise of the closer which didn't happen until over a decade later. The number of complete games started to decline in the 70's, again before the one inning closer became a fashion. It is far more likely that the decline in complete games lead to the rise of the one inning closer, than the other way around. It certainly preceded it.

I'm printing TT's comment, but a number of people pointed this out. And the more I think about it, the more I think you may be right. I did print out the save totals for the American League from 1965 throuh 2007, and it's interesting that in 1970, the number jumped a lot. But then it settled down until the early 80's. That's why, in the story, I specifically said "The change towards gathering The Save was more gradual than you might think. "

But looking at the evidence, I certainly should have mentioned how starting pitchers were being asked to throw fewer complete games. And that might well be the primary reason that saves jumped to a new level in the early 80s.

Not Exactly Blessed

Nick N. said...
The Twins need to start moving Anthony Slama aggressively. He's 24 and dominating Single-A. Probably the best shot this organization has at getting another Neshek in their bullpen.

Well, here's a new name on my radar. Slama is 24 yers old, and only in High A ball, so you wouldn't think he is much of a prospect. But he's primarily in High A ball because he was drafted in the middle of last year out of college. He started last year in the rookie league because that's where you start guys who are drafted in the 39th round.(!!!) It took him just six games, seven innings and 10 strikeouts to earn a promotion to Low A ball. He spend the rest of the year there, striking out 39(!) batters in 24 innings (with 9 walks).

This year he started in High A ball, and it's been more of the same. 43 strikeouts in 26 innings with 9 walks and 0 home runs against. In fact, he hasn't give up a home run yet in his minor league career. Lefties are batting just .140 against him, and righties just .111.

I would argue that the Twins have been moving him fairly aggressively, but Nick is right in that they should continue to do so. I'll go so far as to say that I would love to see him in a September call-up situation. Anyone know anything more about him?

CubberLang said...
As a Rochester native, I've seen Lahey throw quite a few times. If you actually look at Lahey's loses- they were on errors in the field and little dink shots. He's had one ball hit hard off him all year.

To be totally honest, I can't figure out why he's not here already. Or at least I can't figure out exactly why he's not here already. Today the Twins picked up Craig Breslow, a left-handed reliever from the Indians, because the Yankees have traditionally had several batters who are susceptible to southpaws.

To make room for him on the roster, I suspect they'll send Bobby Korecky back down to Rochester, even though he doesn't really deserve it. But the only other real option is to cut bait on Juan Rincon and you don't lose a guy to gamble on a left-handed mediocrity. Plus, Rincon still seems to have more of Gardy's confidence than Korecky, for whatever reason.

But unless Breslow is immediately returned to the recyclables plant after this Yankees series, Lahey might well end up three deep from getting a callup. H's likely behind Korecky and Breslow, and by Tuesday we'll probably see Bonser in the bullpen. That's got to be tough pill to swallow since just last weekend he was probably on more Tigers' blowout away from finding his way up here. I'm betting he won't be sending Glen Perkins a Christmas present.


On Buttons and Being Emminently Winnable

KEN said...
Cleveland

My first reaction was to also label the Tribe as still the favorite - but based on what? They're five games under .500. In run differential they're barely above .500. The front of their rotation looks tired. Their offense is slumping and two of their most valuable hitters are either fading fast (Hafner) or battling injuries (Martinez). And their bullpen is six fuses sticking out of a powder keg. Again.

Plus, they have a losing record versus their division. They are .500 or below against right-handed and left-handed pitching. They haven't been especially unlucky in terms of one-run losses. I'm just not sure why - based on this year - I would label them favorites.

The reason I would have labeled them favorites was because of what they did last year, but let's not forget that after years and years of being talked up as the up-and-coming dynasty in the AL Central, last year was only the second time they fulfilled that promise. They underachieved in 2006, 2004, and 2003. I'm trying to remember if they've shown the ability to heat up after a slow start in any year of this decade, and if anything, it seems like the opposite. Either they start hot, or they're cooked.

In short, my predilection for Cleveland seems based more on my analysis in March than on what it is now. And maybe I should rethink that analysis.

Jesse said...
Whichever team decides to NOT shoot itself in the foot.

Except Kansas City. They're not it.

I guess I agree. Although I might also count out Detroit, who I just can't see winning consistently enough to contend. This is going to be a very fun year to watch baseball. And it's going to especially be a fun year to watch the little things that might add up in the margins, beyond what our run differential and EQA formulas tell us.

On Buttons and Being Emminently Winnable

Could there be any more to write about this week? Unfortunately, a short update this morning is all I have in me...

Gardy's Buttons
Amid criticism about under-using Joe Nathan, Ron Gardenhire's team probably won a game last night because his opposing manager did EXACTLY what we've all been suggesting.

On Tuesday night, Kansas City manager Trey Hillman rode his closer in a non-save, but critical situation. Joakim Soria threw 31 pitches over two innings in a game the Royal's lost. Meanwhile, Nathan was pulled after one inning and just ten pitches, causing one irresponsible blogger to suggest that maybe Gardy was covering up some health problems for his closer.

And so, in last night's game, when the Twins started nibbling away at a five run deficit, and turned the game into a save situation in the last inning, KC's closer was unavailable. And when the Twins took a one-run lead in the tenth inning, their closer "slammed the door". I'm just saying....

Emminently Winnable
It's time to come to the conclusion that this is not a rebuilding year, and that another AL Central division championship might well be within reach for the Twins. In part, thats because I expected this fairly young team to get better as the year progressed. But mostly it's because the rest of the division is so mediocre.

Starting at the bottom of the divison...

1. The Royals (21-32) appear to still be the Royals. That's a little harsh, because I continue believe this team is considerably better than in previous years and are on the right track, but this young lineup needs to improve across the board.
2. The Tigers (22-31) are better than their record, and still capable of a major run. But it's worth noting that they STILL haven't scored as many runs as they've given up. Neither have the Twins, btw, but the Twins aren't starting nine games under .500.
3. The Indians (24-29) are by no means out of this thing, but similarly they aren't a lock for 90 wins this year. In fact, even to get to 86 wins, they need to go 62-47 over the remaining four months, winning almost 57% of their games. So far, they've won 45%.
4. The team the Twins are trailing, the White Sox, won 72 games last year. They also collapsed over the second half of the season.

Just to be clear, I'm not giving the Twins the title. But you look at that list and tell me who the clear-cut favorite is.

Is Nathan Hurt?

There's been some chatter in the blogosphere concerning how Ron Gardenhire is using Joe Nathan this year, and the fact that Nathan hasn't pitched more than one inning in any outing. Aaron Gleeman analyzed this earlier this week, but back in mid-April, Nick Nelson suggested a specific alternative that the Twins might employ in GameDay's Dugout Splinters:

So, what I propose is this: bring in Nathan during the eighth or even seventh inning of tight games from time to time, and utilize his ability to prevent runs better than any other pitcher on the roster. If necessary, offset his extra usage by letting Neshek or Crain get a few of those cushy saves where the team has a three-run lead going into the ninth.

So this isn't new ground. But it's probably received a little more attention this week in part because how Nathan was utilized last Monday night. Nathan threw just five pitches in an extra-inning game where it was obvious the Twins risked short-suiting themselves on relievers. I heard it casually criticzed as yet more evidence of Gardenhire's fascination with formulaic bullpen usage.

Well, Gardy might have his formulaic tendencies when it comes to the bullpen, but under-utilizing a closer in an extra-inning game - especially at home - wasn't one I remember. Looking back at last year, there were four instances where Nathan pitched two full innings:

1. Apr 26 home vs. KC - He threw 35 pitches in the 9th and 10th innings to preserve a 0-0 game.
2. June 26 home vs TOR - He threw 33 pitches in the 10th and 11th innings to preserve a 1-1 game
3. July 19 home vs DET - He threw 27 pitches in the 9th and 10th innings to try and preserve a 3-3 game (he didn't and the Twins lost 4-3).
4. Sept 4 home vs CLE - He threw 23 pitches in the 9th and 10th innings to preserve a 5-5 game.

Like I said, Gardy has his formulaic tendencies. It was always at home, because Nathan can't get the save in extra innings at home. (Sigh.) Natha also always covers the first couple extra innings, but Gardy pulls him around that 30 pitch mark.

But that formulaic tendency is what made last week so weird. In a home game, Nathan came into the game and pitched the 10th, and then left after just five pitches?

It kind of happened again three days later. Home game, tie game, Nathan pitches the ninth and then doesn't return for the tenth. That one I wrote off, because he had throw 23 pitches in that ninth inning. But it was still another data point that maybe things had changed.

And then it happened AGAIN last night. Nathan blew the save in the ninth inning on Teahan's inside-the-park homerun. (And by the way, that is NOT the most exciting play in baseball. An inside-the-park homerun is almost always the result of a tremendous fielding gaffe or an injury to an outfielder. For the team that gives it up, it's the most excruciating play in baseball. And for the team that hits it, it's the most guilty play in baseball. You feel like you got away with something.)

But anyway Nathan left the ninth inning with the game tied and having thrown only 10 pitches. And the fact that this was a road game didn't matter, because Nathan was already in the game and wasn't going to get a save. In this situation, just like in the other two, Gardenhire usually let Nathan keep the ball for a second inning. And for the third time in a week, he didn't. This is a change, and the question is whether it is a change in philosophy or whether Nathan is hurt.

Could it be a change in philosophy? I suppose it could be because Nathan is making more money now and the organization or Gardy feels like they need to be super-extra-special careful with him. Or maybe they think he's less effective in outings after he's thown that many pitches. (BTW, a cursory glance at his performance after the games I mentioned above doesn't seem to support that). Or....

Or the Twins and Nathan are tending to something. Maybe it's some soreness or fatigue or something that isn't so bad that Nathan can't pitch but is bad enough that the Twins are being careful about when they use him. It's likely a question worth asking, or at least it might be interesting to ask Gardenhire why his usage pattern for his closer has seemingly changed this year.

Not Exactly Blessed

I'm starting to worry about Ron Gardenhire.


Or maybe a better preposition would be "for". I look at this roster and how it's constructed, and the pieces he has to work with, and I can't help but wonder just how much he's second-guessing his options. There are just too many pieces that don't necessarily fit neatly together.


I noticed it most last Saturday night, when the Twins were trying to come back versus the Rockies in the ninth inning. The were facing left-handed reliever Brian Fuentes and he was wild. In a one run game, the tying run was in scoring with one out. The game ended when Mike Lamb who had one hit aginst lefties the whole year struck out, chasing a pitch that would have been ball four.


Lamb had no business hitting in that situation, but when I looked at the roster, it became apparent that Gardy didn't have much choice. You could make a case that any matchup would have been better, but there was no real right-hande option, because the roster was filled with guys like Alexi Casilla (who was hitting .219 in AAA), Howie Clark (who also bats left-handed) and Bobby Korecky (the 12th guy in the bullpen who hadn't pitched for a week). If I was Gardy, I think I would've spent the rest of that night curled up on my couch, looking into the darkness, sipping bourbon (possibly laced with Nature Blessed Tart Cherry Extract) and trying to make sense of it all.


And then of course, two nights later the trio of Casilla, Clark and Korecky won a game that Twins had no business winning. Which is the other reason I'm starting to worry about Gardenhire. It's very possible that sometime between Saturday night and Monday night that he sold his soul to the devil. The real one - not Scott Boras. All the evidence is there. But I digress.


The sad thing is that the bench options are the toughest part with this group. Lost in the satisfaction of Sunday's win is that the last two series have shown that the Twins bullpen is an absolute mess. If the starter doesn't get through at least seven innings there is NOBODY who can be trusted to get this team to the ninth without giving up a run.


Stats can be deceiving for, well, anything really. But that goes double for relievers. Still, I've found that if you want to know who has been trustworthy in a bullpen, the stat to look at is WHIP or (Walks+Hits)/Innings Pitched. If it's close to 1, they're doing very well. If it's up to 1.5, then they're probably best used when the game isn't on the line. For instance, last year the top three pitchers in the Twins bullpen were Joe Nathan (1.01 WHIP), Pat Neshek(1.02) and Matt Guerrier(1.05). Two years ago it was Nathan (.78), Neshek(.78) and Dennys Reyes(.99). This year?



Nathan's been quite good. Neshek can't help this year. Korecky hasn't been too bad, but also has all of nine innings pitched in the majors. The rest? They've all been inconsistent at best. If the Twins need someone to mop up innings in a blow out, Gardy has five different options. But if he wants to protect a one run lead in the eighth inning, it's not totally clear he has any.


Or at least not here. It does appear that there is someone in Rochester who might be able to improve the bullpen right now. Tim Lahey has racked up 23 K and just two walks in 20 IP as Rochester's closer. He also has a WHIP of just 1.0. That profiles like someone who can be an effective late-inning setup man, though having 4 losses doesn't bode particularly well for a guy that has appeared in only 13 games.


Another option would be to move an existing starter like Boof Bonser into the bullpen. Bonser's strikeout rate in the minors hasn't translated to long-term success in the majors, but it might be interesting to see what a guy like that can do if he can let the ball fly for two innings at a time. On the other hand, his first inning has been his biggest weakness, so there are plenty of questions about moving him to the bullpen.


The biggest question might be who Bonser or Lahey replaces. The two obvious choices are Bass and Korecky, but in a bullpen full of question marks, aren't they on the roster because they are possible answers? But it can't be the left-hander (Reyes) and Guerrier has been reasonably effective since a shaky first two weeks.


And that's when things get really dicey, because that means losing Crain and Rincon, and do either of them have options? If not, would the Twins really risk losing one of them? If not, that would probably bring us back to Bass - but then who is the long relief guy? Korecky has always been a one-inning guy, even in the minors. Can Rincon's or Crain's arm withstand long relief? Which brings us back to sending down Korecky, even though he's arguably been the second best guy in the bullpen? Especially because that's what we're trying to do - find someone who can be second best guy in the bullpen?


It's enough to to make a Twins Geek throw up his hands in surrender. And I have this vision of our hometown manager throwing a tablespoon back into a kitchen drawer and slamming it shut. And then chugging cherry extract like a college kid on spring break.


I know from experience that such acts rarely end well. And that's why I worry for Ron Gardenhire.

Slamming the Door: What's It Worth?

You can also find a version of this article in the June issue of GameDay, sold outside of the Metrodome before Twins games.

I’m old. 41 likely may not sound very old to some of you, but my back, right knee and left ankle would argue otherwise, and they generally win most debates when they get cranky enough. But even when they remain fairly silent, it’s hard to argue otherwise when you’re older than one of baseball’s most often cited statistics. You see, I’m older than The Save.

The Save was defined in 1970, and like most things that came out of the 70s, it’s a little goofy. Some baseball purists would go further than that, considering it the single most evil thing to come out of that decade. That’s no small claim, given that the decade also produced disco and polyester. Oh, and Starland Vocal Band’s Afternoon Delight. That’s where the purists’ argument falls apart – they forget about Afternoon Delight. But I digress.

The Save is incredibly unpopular with the purists because they believe that it fundamentally changed how bullpens started being used. And they’re probably right.

Baseball historians have gone back and tallied the “saves” that players had before 1970, but before that, it wasn’t a formally defined statistic. Once we started counting them and keeping track of them, ballplayers wanted to start getting them. And The Save isn’t something that only occurs naturally in baseball games. It is also created.

For instance, a starter needs to be pulled to get a save, since a pitcher can’t get both a win and The Save. (That’s part of the goofy definition of The Save). Also, nobody gets the Save if a different pitcher is brought into a game to get the last out (because a pitcher must pitch at least a half inning to get The Save). Or if a pitcher is leading by four runs in the eighth inning, but gives up a run, he can’t get The Save if he still finishes the game in the ninth. On the other hand, if the manager brings in a closer for the ninth, he can get The Save. You get the idea.

The change towards gathering The Save was more gradual than you might think. Throughout the 1970s the number of saves didn’t change too much from what it had been in the 1960s. But a corner was turned in the early 80s, and the result was dramatic. Consider this: prior to 1983 the American League never had a season with 500 saves. And since 1983? They’ve never had a complete season where they didn’t exceed 500 saves. It was like a switch was flipped.

And that switch has led to some big changes in the game both on and off the field. On the field, bullpen moves have become more formulaic. If the Twins are leading a game by three runs in the ninth, who is going to be on the mound? Does it matter if the opposing team’s 7-8-9 hitters are up? Does it matter if Pat Neshek struck out the side in the eighth? Does it matter if Nathan just came from the hospital following the birth of his daughter? No, it doesn’t. He’s the closer. He gets The Save.

But what if the Twins are up by four runs? Well, then all bets are off, aren’t they? And there is no particularly good reason for this. Historically, home baseball teams entering the 9th inning with a three run lead have won 98% of their games. And home baseball teams entering the 9th inning with a four run lead have won 98.8% of their games. So is Nathan brought into the game for that last .8%? Or is it because the goofy definition of The Save allows him to get one if there is a three run lead?

It’s also led to some big changes off the field. Saves have become a commodity, one that is worth tens of millions of dollars. The Twins, a team that has recently developed closers from spare parts, joined that movement this spring when they signed Nathan for four years and $47 million dollars. If he averages about 70 innings per year for the next four years, that’s over $167,000 per inning. That’s much more per inning than the Mets will likely pay for Johan Santana.

And that’s what drives some of the stats guys crazy about The Save. They view wins and losses as naturally correlating with how many runs a team creates and prevents. And a closer can only prevent so many runs when he only pitches 5% innings of the 1400-1500 innings that represent a baseball season. It’s a terrible allocation of resources to spend that much money on a fraction of those innings.

But are all innings created equally? Doesn’t it make sense to have your best pitcher in those innings where they can complete a win? And shouldn’t that be worth something? Is there a way to measure that? And can I really justify a paragraph that consists of nothing more than five questions?

The answers are: No, Yes, Yes, Yes and Yes, because it's my blog, dammit. And we're all irresponsible renegades. Ask Buzz Bissinger.

The method for measuring that is called Win Probability Added, or WPA for short. WPA is how much a player improves the probability of their team winning a game based on historical results. It’s best explained using an example.

Say the Twins enter the bottom of the ninth trailing by a run. Historically, MLB teams have only won roughly 19% of those games. If Joe Mauer leads off with a single, he improves the Twins chances of winning. Historically, teams have won 32% of those games, so Mauer earned 13 (32% - 19%) of WPA. If Justin Morneau follows with a home run, the chances of winning the game are now 100%, so Morneau gains 68 (100-32) WPA.

It works on the other side, too. The closer who blows the save is charged negatively for all the WPA. When he came into the game, his team had an 82% chance of winning, and when he left, they had a 0% chance. So he’s charged -82 points.

It’s an elegant little statistic that mirrors how we tend to think about games. There are games that “we were supposed to win” and games won “single-handedly.” WPA’s biggest weaknesses are that it doesn’t take into account defense and you really need computers to do the number crunching. Fortunately, the internet is filled with computers, and they’ve been crunching those WPA for the last several years. Any guess who leads the Twins in WPA over the last four years?

It’s Nathan. In fact, he’s led the Twins in WPA for three of the last four years. (In 2005, it was Santana.) And he’s leading again this year. (For more info on WPA, I highly recommend the site fangraphs.com, which supplied the WPA used for this story.)

And so, maybe The Save is not as overvalued as we might think. I won’t go as far as saying that something positive came out of the 70s, but I will recognize that maybe this is an example of us being able to learn something from a relative youngster.

And I’m looking forward to the next debate of what a closer is really worth. It beats arguing with my right knee.

The Liriano Decision

"[Francisco] Liriano got a chance to see that he wasn't ready to pitch in the Majors quite yet, something that it seemed neither he, nor his agent, was so quick to believe out of Spring Training."

- Kelly Thesier in her mailbag on the Minnesota Twins web site.

Bill Smith: Maybe in [Liriano's] own eyes, he now knows that he's not ready to pitch up here.
Chad Hartman: Did he need to see that? Was he convinced that he could pitch up here right now? And that he would have harbored some negative feelings toward people up here if he was still pitching in Fort Meyers or in Rochester without getting the chance to show everybody....
Bill Smith: I think so. I think there was a chance that that was going to be an issue. Not so much that he's going to harbor feelings, but I think it had a chance for him to really get down that he wasn't being given a chance.

- yesterday in an interview on KFAN

When you study this stuff, you spend more than a little time doing nothing more than reading tea leaves. And I gotta tell you, it's awfull gratifying when you find out you're suspicions were right.

In spring training, the Twins repeatedly talked about Liriano's lack of control. And after his second minor league start, presumably done to have him build arm strenght, it was repeatedly noted that his control was still a major problem. He was called up anyway. This despite walking four batters in four innings in his first start was called up when Kevin Slowey pulled up lame. Hell, his own AAA manager speculated that he wasn't ready yet.

Now, it's fair to say this isn't a protypical move by the Twins. They're absolutely freaks about control. To the point where it's been annoying. In face, they haven't been afraid to use it over an over as a talking point for why a pitcher isn't in the major leagues. So what was different here?

Well, one thought was that the Twins viewed this year as a developmental year. After all, Carlos Gomez clearly doesn't meet the Twins traditional definition of "major-league-ready", but he broke camp with the team. So maybe Liriano fits that mold, too?

Except that in Gomez's case, they felt like he needed to be exposed to major-league pitching, and that is something that can't happen in AAA. Working on control doesn't need to happen in the majors. Learning to put the ball in a certain quadrant of the strike zone can happen at any league. And in Rochester, the Twins weren't burning Liriano's major league service time.

Ah, but that was exacty the point wasn't it? Liriano entered the season with 2 years and 32 days of service time. If he was on the team starting in April, he would end the season with 3+ years of service time which

a) guarantees arbitration

b) guarantees arbitration as a third year player and

c) puts him on track to become a free agent after 2011.

And if you think that little ticking clock wasn't at the top of his and his agent's mind, you're kidding yourself. You can be damn sure there would be plenty of resentment if he "wasn't being given a chance" as Bill Smith so aptly put it.

Three starts later, things were much clearer for the team, the agent, and probably the player. Liriano needed to redevelop his control. His performance wasn't just bad, and might have even gone beyond damaging financially. It was embarassing. And that's the kind of thing that can derail a player's career and is in nobody's self-interest.

The good news, believe it or not, is that Lirano continued to struggle with his control in Rochester. So this isn't just some mental block about the majors. He has some work to do, and he's now probably in the best place to do it, under the less-bright, less-hot lights.

But it also means that there are going to be some artificial deadlines, times when the clock is going to be ticking a little louder in Francisco's and his agent's head. I count about 13 more days on the major league roster, giving him a current total of approximately 2 years and 45 days. So the magic dates are:

• Mid-May - I suspect he's pressing a bit now, because he'll need to be called up in the middle of this month to get the other 135 days he needs to reach three full years of service time. that would get him more in arbitration and put him on track to become a free agent a full year earlier.
• End of June - He needs about 90 more days on a major league roster to qualify as Super-2 player and be eligible for arbitration. That likely means a couple of million dollars in salary next year. To reach that, he would need to be called up to the Twins by mid-June.

Calling up Liriano only cost the Twins a couple of starts, and seems to have got everybody on the same page as to what the next steps should be. But these artificial deadlines can either provide further incentive for progress, or get in the way of regaining confidence.

And I'm not just talking about the player. I'm also talking about the team.

Warranted Optimism

What a glorious day, eh?

It's May 4th, and the Twins lead the Central Division by 1.5 games. Even for someone who was optimistic about the Twins chances to be competitive this year - and I was - that's strange to say. But a modest five-game winning streak and series sweeps of the White Sox and Tigers have put them atop the division. And for today and tomorrow and most of Tuesday, a sense of optimism will be surrounding the Twins.

And there should be. I'm just not sure it's for the right reason.

We may have learned some valuable lessons about the Twins chances of making the postseason, but I'm not sure we learned that much about the Twins. They're still a young team, with plenty of pitching, a decent bullpen, an offensive core that is hit-and-miss, with a lot of youth. They'll need to manufacture runs, just like they have for the last decade.

They manufactured plenty this weekend. With Michael Cuddyer back, Delmon Young batting lower in the order, and Joe Mauer red hot, we finally saw what the middle of the lineup is capable of. Cuddyer had two runs and four RBI this series. Justin Morneau had four hits, three RBI and two runs. And Mauer was 7 for 11(!) with four RBI and three runs.

But the optimism shouldn't come from a mistaken belief that this team is becoming an offensive powerhouse. That's not going to happen until Mike Lamb, Young and Carlos Gomez are shaken out of their early season doldrums or just plain reach another level. After all, this team hit .320 this series, but they're still hitting just .266 this season, and are second to last in the American League in runs scored.

The optimism should come from what we're learning about the rest of the Central Division, which was supposed to be one of the best in the majors. It's not. Not only are the Twins the only team in the division above (or even equal to) .500, but the division as a whole is eight games under .500 against the other divisions. That's the worst showing for any division in the American or National League.

This weekend the Tigers looked like a fundamentally flawed team. They seemed old and one-dimensional, only capable of winning when playing station-to-station baseball. That's overly simplistic, but even Jim Leyland is talking about making drastic changes to their lineup to eek out a bit more production. Their ultra-hyped offense has been outscored by the opposition by 16 runs this year.

But, of course, that really points to the Tigers biggest flaw. Their pitching is nowhere near average, and it doesn't look like there's much that can be done to fix that. The Tigers are sporting a 5.01 ERA as a team right now. Dontrelle Willis should return fairly soon, but all that might do is bump their best starting pitcher out of the rotation. They're calling up guys who have pitched all of seven innings in AAA to help out the bullpen. And their best pitching prospect struggled in his last outing - at High-A ball.

But the Tigers aren't alone in their mediocrity. Looking at the rest of the division, it's hard to find a team that looks like a 90 game winner. The Twins lead the division but have been outscored by their opponents this year. The team with the best run differential in the division is the White Sox, but they did that while having the worst team batting average (.235!) in the American League. Plus, their pitching is a still a work in progress.

The Indians are the only other team in the AL Central who has scored more run than their opponents. They were a victim of very poor starts by pitchers CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, but both of them have shown some life lately. However, starting pitcher Jake Westbrook has gone down with an injury and slugger Travis Hafner has been in a slump for, umm, about 14 months now. With all that drama, we probably know the least about the Indians. And strangely enough, that probably makes them the frontrunner to be competitive this year.

Except, of course, for the division-leading Twins. Just a week ago I wrote in GameDay that this team really needed to take two games from the White Sox, so they could buy some more time for their young lineup to develop. So far, so good. I don't know whether some key players will grow enough this year to become an above-average offense. But it seems clear that they'll have they're getting plenty of time to sprout.

And that justifies the optimism we're feeling. Glorious day, eh?

Phoning In a Friday: The Comments

Hey gang, for about two months I've promised that I would start using Friday's entry to address many of the comments from the previous week's posts. And, of course, I haven't. Until today.

Some of you might wonder why I wouldn't just reply in the comments section. The answer is that way too often I don't check them until late at night, and by then replying seems a little silly because nobody is going to go back and check them out. Plus, this gives me an extra entry with very little required thought. Which is nice.

Before we jump in, I'll recommend to everyone that the come to the Twins game on Sunday and look for GameDay scorecard and programs, sold by the guys in the red vests. We'll be having our first "Customer Appreciation Day" of the year, which means the programs, scorecards, and Dugout Splinters will be absolutely free, instead of the usual price of $2. This will be the last time we'll give out the April issue, which was edited by Nick Nelson of Nick and Nick's blog, and features stories from Jesse Lund and Seth Stohs, so check it out if you're in the neighborhood.

On to the comments....

From What's Not Working - The Offense

ubelmann said:
That the offense is offensive is not only completely believable--it was completely predictable. We lost our most valuable position player from last year and were banking on all of our top hitters to both be productive and healthy, not to mention big steps forward from a pair of 22-year-olds. This is not the stuff that sure-fire improvement plans are made from.

You know how I said I add comments and they're way too late for anyone to read them? I think ubelmann and I were discussing this earlier in the preseason and at the end of the thread I was either tempted (or actually did?) offer to make a bet that the Twins would exceed last year's ineptitude. I would have done it in an email, but I don't think I have your email Mat.

And right now, it looks like it's a good thing I didn't. And since your comments are well documented, and given the several studies you site and the Twins existing performance, I have no choice but to .... well .... to stick my head in the sand and say I know I'm still going to be right about this dammit.

Dam said:
Remember Cuddyer who was batting clean-up before he was hurt missed over half the games. Offense will get better--Cuddyer will be healthy--Delmon will adjust to new team.

Yeah! Cuddyer! Young! How ‘bout you stick that up your PECOTA!?! We are not listening to ubelmann……we are not listening to ubelmann…..la-la-la-la-la

TT said:
I don't know that the current numbers have much meaning except that it is not an auspicious start. And that is hardly limited to their hitting. Only two AL teams have given up more runs per game than the Twins.

TT is right about the Twins pitching and it surprises me, so I’ve been meaning to study that too. Plus, otherwise, I need to be in denial on two fronts. And that takes a lot of effort.

From On Liriano and Important versus Measurable

Sbg said:
Just another point of reference: in the time that it takes a 93 MPH fastball to travel 60.5 feet, an 89 MPH fastball has traveled 57.9 feet, assuming no loss in velocity (which of course, there is). The slower ball is 2.6 feet behind the faster one! It seems to me that that 4.5% is very significant. But, yes, break and changing speeds, as we all know, is important, too.

I almost added that little computation to the story SBG. Great minds think alike. I didn’t because the more I thought about it, the less I cared. As a batter, swinging seem to be more about timing than distance. But that’s why I included the 4.5% thing. I’m glad someone brought it up.

SL__72 said:
And to follow up my last comment with something that is actually useful: Here is a really good article regarding fastball speeds.

You’re right SL_72, that was a really good article. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

It is written by John Walsh at the Hardball Times and he studied fastballs ranging from 80-97 mph and the affect that they have on hitters. He came up with some nifty results. I’ll quote his conclusions:

So, what did I turn up with this analysis? Well, keeping in mind the sample size and other caveats previous mentioned, I think I've learned that
1. fastballs outside don't depend much (if at all) on speed for their effectiveness;
2. conversely, inside fastballs are more effective the harder they are thrown (this one I already knew);
3. most of the observed effect appears to come from home runs: outside pitches are rarely hit for homers and when they are, a fast pitch is as likely to be hit out of the park as a soft toss;
4. a pitch thrown hard is more susceptible to the ump's bad call than a soft toss.

I could write a whole entry on this and how it relates to Liriano (though the study was limited to right-handed pitchers). And I wants me that data set badly. Thanks again for pointing it out to me SL__72.

From Stealing a Moment

jesse said...
I don't think the Twins are opposed to the idea of Gomez swiping home...or attempting to...but it just wasn't the right situation. You said it yourself--Morneau at the plate, and he swings from the left side of the plate. Not only is one of your best hitters at the plate, but with no obstruction the catcher could see the entire thing develop in his peripheral vision.

Anonymous said...
It is possible to steal home with a left handed batter. Ideally it would happen with a guy like Ortiz at the plate since the infield shift is on and the third baseman is a long way from the bag, allowing a longer lead.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the White Sox had a small shift on Morneau, because I got to tell you, I was absolutely stunned how far Crede was playing from the third base bag in that at-bat. It was almost as if the White Sox were daring Gomez to try it.

Hell, I would've even supported Morneau to trying a bunt down the third base line. I’m almost sure he could have beat out a throw.

As for whether it matters that Morneaus is left-handed, I don't rightly know. I can't remember ever reading something that broke down the strategies for stealing home. And it's not like there's much opportunity to talk about it anymore. Anyone have a good link for this? SL__72, what's going on? Asleep at the wheel? You used to provide such good links. What have you done for us lately?

BeefMaster said...
I wasn't watching the game, and I didn't notice on the radio - was the pitcher in the stretch? I guess I can see stealing home on a lefty in the stretch, if he's paying little enough attention to the runner that you can get a phenomenal jump (and he doesn't use a slide step every time), but I generally think of a steal of home as coming when the pitcher is throwing out of the windup. Is it more common against a stretch than I'm thinking? I've only seen a steal of home happen once in a major league game, and it was on a first-and-third double steal (Gladden at third, and Jim Dwyer, of all people, at first).

I only included this comment because I love the nickname BeefMaster. I used to know a guy nicknamed Beef in college. If I remember correctly, we met him at a party in Eau Claire where my buddy Matt and I knew just three other people, one of whom was Beef’s girlfriend. Matt and I decided we would meet people by doing vodka shots with strangers, and we talked Beef into joining us, but his girlfriend was having none of it.

But of course, he did. About every 15 minutes he’s sneak away from her, meet us in the kitchen with the rest of the party, and toss back a small shot of something clear and cold and awful. Probably Smirnoff.

And the point is that I think you can trust guys named some derivative of Beef. Even if he tells you he’s seen someone steal home. And with that, I wish you all a happy weekend.

Stealing a Moment

"Well, what I like best...'", and then he had to stop and think. Because although Eating Honey was a very good thing to do there was a moment just before you began to eat it which was even better than when you were, but he didn't know what that that was called".

- from Winnie the Pooh

The score was tied, there were two outs, a runnner on third base and Justin Morneau was at-bat. And all I could think was that I almost wished he wasn't. Not because I didn't trust him to get the big hit. (He did.) But because I really wanted to see Carlos Gomez try to steal home.

It sure looked like he could have. Joe Crede, the White Sox third baseman, was playing at least 25-30 feet from the bag. Gomez could have taken a lead one-third of the say towards home and still beaten Crede back to third base. Frankly, it seems like nobody even considers that the opposing team might steal home. Even though it used to be so common that Babe Ruth stole home ten times in his career.

The situation certainly seemed to call for it. The Twins had been struggling to score runs. There were two outs. Morneau had looked terrible in his previous at-bats. And there was a left-handed pitcher on the mound.

And god knows that if any organization should be able to teach a person how to steal home in this modern era, it's the Twins. Rod Carew, who is at spring training every year, stole home 17 times in his career, and still holds the major league record with seven in 1969. But did you know that Paul Molitor also stole home at least ten times?

But today, for whatever reason, it was never really a threat. Gomez never took much of lead, never getting half as far from the base as Crede was. Go-go didn't even play games with the pitcher, as if it never evern occurred to him to consider bluffing, let alone actually doing it.

And, truth is, it probably wasn't a good time. After all, this is Morneau, and he did get the game-winning hit. Plus, I wonder if it's more difficult to steal home with a left-handed batter at the plate. And, it's likely that this is something that the Twins staff is afraid to work with Gomez on, because he does seem to be (as was aptly noted by Patrick Reusse yesterday) the most spontaneous player in baseball.

But count me as someone who is officially looking forward to Eating That Honey. I grew up with Sir Rodney, but to me he was the sweet hitter, not the sneaky thief. Sometime within the next couple years, we're going to see Gomez at least try that play. And the only thing I'm looking forward to more that it is the moment just before it, when the crowd is on their feet, and the whole ballpark, including the opposing team knows it's coming. And then....

Well, I don't know what it's called, but it's even better "than when you were". And I sure want to be there.

On Liriano and Important versus Measurable

The NFL draft and it's post-spin machinations invariably amuses me. Not that I blame teams for trying, especially because the analysis of their moves can be so completely ridiculous. Somehow, a college left tackle is graded "four stars", and some other right tackle is rated "three stars", and god help the team that chooses the second guy first, even if it's the right choice. In the near term, it's a bad choice, because the grading system says it's a bad choice.



But there are several biases inherent in a grading system, and one of the biggest is obvious, when you think about it. It's that each criteria needs to be measurable. Otherwise, it wouldn't be a criteria. It would just be an opinion.



And the reason that can be a problem is because that which is measurable is not necessarily important, and that which is important is not necessarily measurable. For instance, the criteria for a quarterback that is measurable might include arm strength or height or speed, but are those necessarily what you prize most in a quarterback? Or is it the ability to feel pressure, avoid turnovers, or read the tendencies of a free safety? And how the hell do you measure those things?



The answer, too often, is that you can't. And so the temptation is to make the decision based on the more objective criteria, even though you suspect, or even know) they're not as important. Because they are measurable, they become important. And that which is important, but can't be measured, becomes less important.



Of course, the beauty of such grading systems is that they can, through hard work, gradually improve in the long term. For instance, if you suspect that that avoiding turnovers is a prime criteria, perhaps you go through every game film of prospective NFL QBs and measure the times they could have thrown an interception versus how many they did. And then you do that for the prospective NFL QBs for the last five draft classes, and compare your results to how they did in the pros.



But if you've gone through that exercise, you know just how many difficulties that really presents. First, there's the data collection, which can itself be a time-consuming and tedious proposition. But even if you get the data, what are you comparing it to? The number of turnovers they had in the NFL? Over one year? Over their career? As a ratio to their touchdown passes?



And how do you decide which players to include in the study? All QBs that were mentioned in pre-draft literature? What if they're cut before their first season begins? Then what are you comparing them to? And if you only choose QBs that ended up starting, is there some built in criteria that allowed them to start? Like the fact that the matched those same non-important but measurable criteria you started out with?



The answer to all those questions is that you make a decision based on what you really want to know. For instance, switching to baseball, say you're interested in how important K/9 rates really are for a young pitcher. A Twins fan might compare to a pitcher's K/9 rate in AAA to their ERA in the first three years in the majors, because she wants to know what they can expect from that player prior to their arbitration year. But a roto player might compare it to their WHIP the next year, because they want to know what to pay for that player in next year's draft. And a Yankee fan might want to know how long their career lasts, because its not like the Yankees will ever quit paying him if he's successful.



Whichever that person chooses, it's important to know that it means they are answering a very specific question. The general sense might be that "K/9 rate in AAA is important", but the specifics matter, especially when it's "for the long-term outlook of that player" as opposed to "for next year".



All of which is why I grew increasingly uncomfortable as multiple sources evaluated the velocity of Francisco Liriano's pitchers ad nauseum this spring. It isn't that it isn't news. It's certainly news when a player's velocity changes after they have come back from injury. It shows that something is different.



But, of course, something is different almost constantly with pitchers. Maybe they're switching to a slide step when someone is on base. Maybe they're throwing more offspeed pitches earlier in the count, or when they're behind in the count. Or versus left-handers. Maybe they're raising their elbow a little higher, or changing their arm slot, or sliding to the left half of the mound. Or maybe the break on their two-seam fastball is a little greater today than it was last start.



No, we aren't obsessing about it because it shows a difference. We're obsessing about it because we think it's important. And it might be, but I don't know a single study that says velocity has anything to do with how successful a pitcher is in the majors, either short term or long term. I'll admit, it seems like it should be. But as I think about all the pitchers who have had successful careers, only a fraction of them have the ability to throw true gas.



Let's unpack this just a bit more. Reports are that Liriano threw 93 miles per hour before the surgery and 89 miles per hour after the surgery. So how much less time would a 93 mile per hour pitch take to reach the plate over an 89 mile per hour pitch? I'll add my back-of-the-napkin figures below so my fellow geeks can call me on it if I blow the math....

I get two one-hundreths of a second difference. It's certainly possible that is significant. But it seems equally possible that there are factors that matter more, like control or movement or the ability to change speeds.

But we don't obsess about these as much because we can't, and that's because they're not as measurable. But they may be twice as important.

What's Not Working - The Offense

Last year we watched the Twins struggle all year because of an anemic offense. The bats finished third to last in the American League in runs scored (718), and they might have been lucky to finish that high considering that they were second to last in OPS (On-base Plus Slugging). New General Manager Bill Smith responded by overhauling the offense, replacing five of the nine lineup spots with new players.

The result? Would you believe it's worse? As of today, the offense ranks second to last in the American League in runs scored. And their OPS is actually 57 points worse than it was last year. Five of the positions in the lineup rank among the worst in the league at their position:

Right Field – 628 OPS ranks 11th in the AL
Michael Cuddyer has been hurt, so 1/3 of these at-bats went to Denard Span, and while Span might develop into a decent option in center field, he can’t provide the production of a bopper that typically mans right field. It’s also worth noting that while Jason Kubel (who got another 1/3 of the at-bats here) flashed some power in a hot start, he limps into this homestand with a discouraging .259 batting average and a gut-wrenching .281 On-base Percentage (OBP). The only guy who walks less than him with that many at-bats is….

Center Field – 639 OPS ranks 12th in the AL
The popular wisdom after Carlos Gomez remarkable first week with the Twins was that he would struggle at times this season, but he was just such a weapon that he had to be on the roster. We were mostly right. He’s struggling. And he’s a weapon. We’re just not sure for which team.

In 94 AB this season, Gomez has just 2(!) walks, which is why his OBP is just .271. For some context, the average OBP in the AL is .334. The median team OBP of a lead-off hitter is .351. No team has finished with an OBP lower than .286 from their lead-off hitters in this century. This isn’t just bad. This has a chance to be historically bad.

Shortstop – 523 OPS ranks 12th in the AL
To be fair, the Twins basically punted on this position offensively the minute they signed Adam Everett. He’s never been anywhere close to productive offensively but was supposed to be a defensive whiz. With Everett hurt, the at-bats have basically been split between Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto:

Matt Tolbert - 33 AB - 706 OPS

Adam Everett - 27 AB - 437 OP

Nick Punto - 24 AB - 367 OPS

April is hardly the time to panic. But when it is time to panic, this looks like a pretty good place to consider a change.

Third Base – 618 OPS ranks 14th in the AL
Not much is going according to plan for Mike Lamb so far this year. He was wooed by the Twins with promises of getting a chance to bat more versus left-handed pitchers, but so far only had 13 at-bats against them. And he traditionally feasts on right-handed pitchers, but is hitting just .246 against them with very little power. Lamb has had months like this – last May his OPS was just 598 – but it sure would be nice if it didn’t happen in his first month of a multi-year contract with a new team.

Left Field – 600 OPS ranks 14th in the AL
The Twins biggest offseason acquisition has been their biggest disappointment so far. It looks like Delmon Young is trying to work on driving the ball to all fields and control the strike zone, which would be great if it was working. Instead, he’s striking out just as much, walking just as little, hitting 30 points below his career batting average and slugging 100 points worse. And most of that damage has been inflicted immediately following Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in the lineup.

The good news is that it sure looks like he’s trying to improve, and at 22 years old, he’s got a good chance of eventually making the adjustment that could lead to stardom. But that sure isn’t happening this month, and recently manager Ron Gardenhire has moved him lower in the lineup.

On Nick Blackburn and Playing Possum

"For a baseball fan to fail to see that strikeout rates are closely tied to career length, I would argue, is very much like a basketball fan failing to notice that basketball players tend to be tall."

- Bill James in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract

For the first Dugout Splinters of the year, I named ten Twins players I am excited to watch develop this year. And now, two weeks into the season, they almost all rank behind a guy who's pitching tonight. And he wasn't anywhere on the list. And the reason why I'm excited has to do with James' quote above.

The reason Nick Blackburn didn't make that first list was also because of that quote. Blackburn simply didn't show the good in the minors, where "goods" is described as a high strikeout rate. The Twins other young pitchers intrigued me for exactly the opposite reason. But Blackburn wasn't like the others:

A K/9IP (strikeout rate) of 6 is about average in the majors, and it's a little higher in the minors. All the other young studs had some very good strikeout rates - some obscenely good. This is why I was so optimistic about the Twins young rotation developing into something special as the year went along. And, obviously, so far, so good.

But Blackburn seemed likely to be the guy who didn't stick around for long. It was certainly possible that he would have a few good starts, and maybe even stick around for a year or so. Old timers like me will remember Twins starter Allen "Little Franky" Anderson, who won the ERA championship in 1988 in his first full year in the majors. He also struck out just 83 batters in 202.1 innings. He had another good year in 1989, lost 18 games in 1990, and played his last major league game in 1991.

So it isn't surprising that Blackburn, who the coaching staff praises as a polished pitcher, is having early success. That happens even with low strikout pitchers. What's surprising is that so far, Blackburn hasn't been a low strikeout pitcher:

By comparison, Blackurns K/9IP last year in AAA-Rochester was 4.64. It's rare to see a pitcher's strikeout rate go up when they jump from AAA to the majors. It's virtually unheard of for a strikeout rate to jump this much.

Small sample size, you say? Well, obviously. But that's the first reason why this is so compelling to watch. Because if you're looking at a pitcher's early results, and you're going to pull one stat that is a decent indicator on whether that success will last, strikeout rate is usually it. For instance, if your closer is scuffling a bit and you notice that he's only struck out just two guys in his first nine innings, odds are it's because he's hiding an injury. Strikeout rate is a hard thing to fake.

But the second reason I'm compelled to watch is because of what I saw in his last start against the White Sox. Blackburn seemed to be striking out the most dangerous White Sox batters, almost as if he was truly pitching to contact for those hitters that were less likely to hurt him. And saving the Ks for the moments it meant the most.

In the first inning, that also meant striking players out exactly when he needed to. Three batters into that inning, the White Sox had one run in, no outs, and runners on first and second base. Blackburn struck out Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye consecutively before getting a ground ball to shortstop (from AJ Pierzynski) to end the inning.

The heart of the order was back up in the third inning, when Blackburn struck out Jim Thome and Konerko to start that inning. And in the fourth, he struck out Thome again to end another scoring threat.

What struck me about this was that I'm watching a guy who shouldn't be striking people out, and I'm wondering why his strikeout rate is shooting upward. And then he surprises me even more by recording those punchouts in critical moments against some of the opposing team's best hitters. And I can't help but wonder, can a guy really play possum through a six-year minor league career, and then flash the goods when his team, and his career, needs it the most?

I doubt it. But I damn well am going to watch it.

On-base Surprises

I don't know what surprises me more: that one week in into the regular season and it looks like we have two lineup changes, or that I don't seem to mind. Granted, neither of them are official or anything. But it looks like two guys are going to get a lot more playing time than anyone anticipated before this weekend's series versus the Royals.

The first is Matt Tolbert, who has played in six games, starting four of them. He received playing time in part because Adam Everett had a family emergency and because Brendan Harris has been fighting some flu, but that still means he was plugging those holes that Nick Punto was supposed to be filling.

But it goes further than that. Those incidents don't explain why he was starting at shortstop yesterday. I'll be surprised if he isn't getting at least one starting the Chicago series, and maybe two considering Mike Lamb (third base) is hitting just .143 so far. It looks like he currently has Ron Gardenhire's confidence. A .462 batting average can do that.

The second surprise is that the Twins plan to start Denard Span most days in right field during Michael Cuddyer's absence. That means that Span has just jump-frogged the capable combination of Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe, who will continue to platoon as designated hitters.

The initial reaction to both developments was a wince. Both smell like knee-jerk reactions. Neither player has been much of a prospect, but they've both been fairly hot, and their more respected competition has been somewhat cold. And that wince turns into a pained grimace when I think of the accolades and hype that are going to be thrown upon these guys by local coverage. It will make the Church of Puntocism that sprang up around here seem restrained.

But if you're watching the games, you can see what Gardenhire is seeing in those players. The Twins like to pontificate about "professional at-bats", and that's an easy thing for them to defend, because like porn, you can claim you know it when you see it. But I see it in their at-bats and both players spring performances show some results to support that assertion.

And frankly, so do both players recent stats. A couple of weeks ago I opined that Denard Span might just have turned a corner late last year, pointing to a large shift in his walk to strikout ratios. And, in his first major league game, he got on base with a walk, and didn't strike out. I'm not claiming he's Ricky Henderson, but he continues to bear watching.

And while Tolbert has never been a particularly high ranking prospect, the one thing he has seemed capable of doing is getting on base. Over the last two years in the minors, he's drawn 81 walks and struck out just 116 times. That's a damn fine ratio and helps explain why his on-base percentage (OBP) over those two years has been .350 over that time.

And this decade, getting on-base has been a real key for this team:

When the Twins have been above the league average in OBP, they've generally done well, and when they haven't, they've generally struggled. I'll admit, that's a pretty simplistic way to break things down, but it makes some sense. This team has always struggled to find power, but has been successful despite that ongoing deficiency. They've done so because they have been a little better at setting the table.

And so, I find myself warming to the surprises this first week has produced. I want to see if these guys are the disciplined hitters that their recent history suggests. And I want to see if the effect that adding to professional hitters might have on this lineup.

Chief Bender’s Burden

Tom Swift was an editor and writer in GameDay, and some of you may even remember him writing for TwinsGeek.com back in 2003. Or was it 2004? Anyway, for the last few years, he has been working on a biography of Charles Bender, AKA Chief Bender, Minesota's first Hall of Famer.

Tom is going to be at the Twins game tonight, signing copies of his book, which will be available at a 20% discount (I think). He'll also be at Magers and Quinn on Saturday the twelfth talking baseball with some other baseball writers. I encourage you to take advantage of these opportunities to talk with someone who is knowledgable and passionate about baseball.

The following story is in the April issue of GameDay:

Chief Bender’s Burden: The Silent Struggle of a Baseball Star is a new acclaimed biography of Charles Albert Bender, Minnesota’s first representative in the Baseball Hall of Fame and for nearly fifty years its only one. Bender, who was born near Brainerd and spent his early years on the White Earth Reservation, was the greatest American Indian player of all time. A bright, courageous pitcher who thrived in front of lively Deadball Era crowds and was forced to face constant racial prejudice, he helped lead the Philadelphia Athletics to five American League pennants and three World Series championships.

Tom Swift, author of Chief Bender’s Burden, will sign copies of the book in the concourse inside the Metrodome on Friday, April 4, before and during the Twins-Royals game. He sat down with GameDay to discuss Bender and the book.

GameDay: You’ve already gotten some positive reviews — congratulations. Let’s start at the start. Why did you write this book?

Tom Swift: I think what’s behind the generous feedback some have offered the book is what drew me to write it — Bender’s life story is compelling. After his name popped up in newspaper articles, when other Minnesota-born players began receiving Hall of Fame consideration, I became curious. The more I learned the more I wanted to learn. I discovered a man who had a rare ability to throw a baseball. But I was especially fascinated by the reasons why his success was so improbable. It’s funny, but I never would have known about Charles Bender if I wasn’t a baseball fan, but I never would have written the book if he had been just a great baseball player.

GD: It’s written in a different style than most baseball bios. Was that intentional?

TS: For better or worse, I decided early on not to chronicle every game or season of his career. I think baseball fans have plenty to chew on here. But I was after a story that, personally, I found inspiring. I tell people kind enough to show up at readings that they may have many reasons to not read this book. That its subject played baseball is, at least I hope, not one of them.

GD: You write a lot about how bright Bender was. Is it true he invented the slider?

TS: I don’t know. No one knows. That’s the most accurate answer. The most interesting answer — and this comes from historian Bill James, not just me — is that Bender is the first pitcher we know definitely threw the pitch.

GD: This book obviously required a great deal of research. You delve into regular seasons, the World Series, the prejudice, Bender’s surprising number of hobbies. I had no idea, for example, he was one of the best trapshooters in the country or that he was a terrific golfer. What is the most interesting thing you found on the research trail?

TS: One answer that comes to mind, looking at the arc of his life, was just how much he changed over time. Bender arrived in the big leagues as a skinny 19-year-old kid from nowhere and found himself in a racially intolerant business. He was introverted and noticeably shy. Using intelligence and poise, he essentially taught himself to be a great pitcher. He was constantly improving — his ERA dropped for eight seasons in a row — and over time he embraced the spotlight and, eventually, of all things, became a people person.

GD: He was also pretty funny, wasn’t he?

TS: You’re right. He liked to make people laugh. Late in life he was a regular speaker on the rubber chicken circuit. At one banquet, a man who had had too much to drink kept asking him obvious questions, such as what he had done for a living and what country was he born in. Bender replied, deadpan: “I sell blankets at the railroad station in Albuquerque.”

Chief Bender’s Burden, published by the University of Nebraska Press (April 2008), is available where books are sold. For information visit www.chiefbendersburden.com.

Opening Day Notes

It's late, I'm bushed and cold and wet, so we'll be doing the lighting round tonight, I think....



The Monroe Decision
I assume this one will be covered extensively by other sites, since I had friends showing me internet articles about it during the game. In case you missed it, Ron Gardenhire trumpeted his intention to bat Jason Kubel and Craig Monroe in the designated hitter spot, and to choose which one to bat day by day.



Some might have thought that would have meant a platoon, since Kubel is bats left-handed and struggled last year versus lefties and Monroe bats right-handed and hit .194 against right-handers. So just to make himself clear, Gardenhire started Monroe against right-handed Jered Weaver. And he stayed with that until the Angels brought in a right-handed reliever, so Gardy responded by batting Kubel.



Apparently it was a hunch, and it was seemingly a hunch that paid off, in that the Twins won, Kubel had early success (he got a gift double in that at-bat) and Monroe can feel like something more than a glorified bench player. This sounds an awful lot like Gardenhire outthinking himself. There are those that say that isn't too hard to do, but if we're going to beat him senseless for that, it's only fair that we give credit where credit is due, too. Like:



Pulling Livan
The top of the seventh ended with the Twins holding a one run lead, and their veteran was on the mound and had only thrown 84 pitches so far. What's more, the eighth inning was going to start with the Angels ninth hitter. There wasn't a doubt in my mind that Livan Hernandez would come out and start the eighth inning until he got into trouble.



And I expected he would have some trouble, too, because he's Livan Hernandez and these are the Angels. I'd expected he would have some trouble in the previous two innings too, and he hadn't. But I'd also expected that he would start those innings instead of turning things over to a lockdown bullpen, and he had. That's generally the way the Twins do things.



I was wrong, because Pat Neshek came out and threw those nasty pitches and made the Angels look pretty silly for the most part. The last battle he had, against Vladamir Guerrero, will be one of the more memorable late inning battles you'll see. Neshek kept throwing nasty pitches, the crowd was on it's feet, and Vlad kept swinging like he was trying to break the baseball like a pinata. On the 2-2 pitch, Neshek uncorked a high and tight fastball as a warning shot. And on the next pitch he blew a fastball past Vlad while Vlad, who had just seen a pitch barely miss his ear, swung as hard and as violently as DeNiro in The Untouchables. Classic.



All of which is a little off topic, because what surprise me was that Neshek was in that game. It's probably because Gardy wanted to get Livan his first American League win. But it could just as easily be explained by Gardy coaching with a sense of urgency, which is franly good to see. And it's also notable that this is a case where Gardy clearly didn't overthink things. Neshek owned that inning, despite it being filled with left-handed batters. It was a smart, strategic and confident move, devoid of a lot of clubhouse politics. I hope we see more of that.



Get to Know 'Em
One of the highlight of the opener is getting to know the new players. And, of course, the snapshots the most regret. My friend Kris practically squealed with glee when she saw Adam Everett's headshot. "Ooooh. Can we call him Baby New Year?"



Yes. Yes we can.

See you on GameDay

If you have some time, we just had a nice story done on GameDay by Finance & Commerce. GameDay has been a lot of work this spring, but I'm very excited about some of the things that are going on with it. Ultimately, I think our goal is to help the Twin Cities become an avid baseball city and I just believe an independent and financially sustainable program/newsleetter that focuses on baseball is a part of that. If you would like to be involved, as a writer, vendor, advertiser or other, please let us know. We would love to have you join the team. Thanks.

10 Reasons to Watch

If you were a Yankees fan who wanted to win a World Series, you could just sit back and wait for the top free agent to hit the market and demand your team sign him. And, I suppose, if you wanted to be a successful parent, you could just adopt a 17-year-old National Merit Scholar.

But Twins fans are like the rest of us parents. We understand that it is infinitely more rewarding to see success come from someone in whom we’ve invested some time. While it isn’t clear that this team is ready to add to the four division championships they’ve had this decade, the players’ minor and major league histories show that they’re not as far as some might think. So, if you like watching kids grow up, here are the Top 10 reasons to watch the Twins this year:

10. Justin Morneau – He has an MVP award in his back pocket, he’s going to be a Twin for the next six years, and he still hasn’t entered his prime. It’s almost become a cliché that baseball players often have a career year when they turn 27, and Morneau’s 27th birthday is May 15th.

But the critical question about Morneau might be: what happens when this guy doesn’t slump for two months of the year? Last year, he had 28 home runs by the end of July, but slumped the last two months hitting just .222 with 3 home runs in August and September. And in 2006, when he won the MVP, he was hitting just .244 entering June. We still haven’t seen this guy’s ceiling.

9. Scott Baker – As he entered the ninth inning of a perfect game last August, it was pretty clear we were watching Baker make “the leap” that we had been waiting for. In reality, this was the second leap. The first was in 2004 when he motored through three levels of the minors and we got all excited. It’s taken three years, but he’s still just 26 years old.

8. Brendan Harris – He showed last year in Tampa Bay that he could hit in the majors, but he’s going to need to show the Twins that he can field for an organization that cares about details. He’s the starting second baseman for now, but watch to see how many rollers make their way through the right side of the infield. If he even becomes average defensively, he’ll likely hold this job until the new ballpark opens. If not, you’ll see him backing up someone next year.

7. Boof Bonser – Apparently, I’m contractually obligated to talk about Bonser’s weight, or at least that’s what I gather based on the thousands of words penned about the topic this spring. Instead, let’s focus on a minor league career that included a strikeout title in the AAA Eastern League. For all last year’s struggles, he still kept striking out batters (136K/173 IP), which bodes well for continued success in the majors. Fatso or no, he projects to be a legitimate #2 pitcher in the next year or so.

6. Jason Kubel – “Before The Injury”. It seems like those three words have almost become a new first name for Kubel. Like “Before The Injury, Kubel was a more exciting hitter than Mauer or Morneau.” Or “Before The Injury, Kubel was one of the top prospects in the minors.” The sad truth is that Kubel may never be the player he was Before The Injury.

Then again, maybe he will be. Shortly after Twins fans started tuning out last year, Kubel started locking in. He hit .341 over the last two months last year, and showed both patience (.400+ OBP) and power (.500+ SLG). Could that be from the increased plate discipline he showed as the year continued? In April he was striking out four times for every walk. By August, the ratio was 1:1.

(Space is getting short. See what I mean about having a lot to watch? Let’s do a lighting round….)
5. Kevin Slowey – “He needs a strikeout pitch!” Really? He struck out 342 batters in his 354 minor league innings. Maybe he can just use the pitch he used for those. I’m just saying.

4. Joe Mauer – “Where’s the power?” He’s 6’ 5”, 225 pounds, 24 years old and is a career .313 hitter. I’m thinking it will come. Just a hunch.

3. Carlos Gomez - “He’s not ready!” Probably not, but over the last three years, he has averaged 45 stolen bases per year. Only three Twins have ever stolen that many in a season – Chuck Knoblauch, Rod Carew and Cesar Tovar.

2. Delmon Young – “He’ll swing at anything!” True, but if he can learn to recognize pitches that he can’t hit, he may have the highest ceiling in this list. In Tampa Bay, he was striking out four times for every walk. This spring he continued that trend, so he certainly has a ways to go. For now, his power, arm, and lack of plate discipline will remind you of Torii Hunter, both the good and the bad.

1. Francisco Liriano – “What’s his velocity?” Quit obsessing about the radar gun and watch the strikeout totals instead. In his last two spring training starts, he struck out twelve batters in nine innings. Giggle.

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I'll be at the home opener tonight, and GameDay will be sold across the four corner of the Metrodome as usual. This year, I'm going to be working with the vendors a lot more than in the past, so you might well see me walking around in my red vest (and red stocking cap) tonight. If so, please say "Hi".

And of course, look for GameDay vendors with the red vests and the colorful covers featuring art by Robert Blehert this month. (You can see it at the top of the entry.) This month's guest editor is Nick Nelson and the opposing team's Dugout Splinters is by an Angels blogger from HalosHeaven.com. Plus, there are stories by Jesse Lund and Seth Stohs. It's a virtual bloggers cornucopia.