Thursday, May 29, 2008

Friday Comments

Hey gang, I promised I would try to address comments from the week before in Friday's entry, so let's take another stab at it this week...

Slamming The Door: What's It Worth?

Ken said:
"because a pitcher must pitch at least a half inning to get The Save"
Surely that's some kind of editing mistake. I know that you know that a pitcher can get a save by getting only the last out of the game.

Y ou know, I do know that, but here's the rule, from Rule 10.19 of the Rules of Baseball. It says that the official scorer shall credit a pitcher with a save when such pitcher meets ALL four of the following conditions:

1. He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team
2. He is not the winning pitcher
3. He is credited with at least ⅓ of an inning pitched
4. He satisfies one of the following conditions:


1. He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning
2. He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck
3. He pitches for at least three innings


So I thought you could get a save just by getting out the last batter two. But doesn't the 3rd condition up there preclude that? I'll be interested in everyone's comment on that.

twayn said...
Billy Beer, mood rings, pet rocks, CB radios, BJ & the Bear. Wait, where was I? Oh, yeah. Interesting how the rise of The Save coincides with the success of closers like Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Dennis Eckersley. Their dominance probably had a lot to do with the inflation in the value of that particular statistic. Oh, wow. Inflation. WIN buttons. The oil embargo. The hostage crisis. Burt Reynolds...

Terry, I like you so I'm going to try and forget that you DARED to defame CB radios and Burt Reynolds. Without them, would we have C.W. McCall? We got a great big convoy, rockin on through the night. Yeah, we got a great big convoy, ain't she a beautiful sight. CON-VOY!

TT said...
There does not appear to by any correlation between the creation of the save as a statistic and the rise of the closer which didn't happen until over a decade later. The number of complete games started to decline in the 70's, again before the one inning closer became a fashion. It is far more likely that the decline in complete games lead to the rise of the one inning closer, than the other way around. It certainly preceded it.

I'm printing TT's comment, but a number of people pointed this out. And the more I think about it, the more I think you may be right. I did print out the save totals for the American League from 1965 throuh 2007, and it's interesting that in 1970, the number jumped a lot. But then it settled down until the early 80's. That's why, in the story, I specifically said "The change towards gathering The Save was more gradual than you might think. "

But looking at the evidence, I certainly should have mentioned how starting pitchers were being asked to throw fewer complete games. And that might well be the primary reason that saves jumped to a new level in the early 80s.

Not Exactly Blessed

Nick N. said...
The Twins need to start moving Anthony Slama aggressively. He's 24 and dominating Single-A. Probably the best shot this organization has at getting another Neshek in their bullpen.

Well, here's a new name on my radar. Slama is 24 yers old, and only in High A ball, so you wouldn't think he is much of a prospect. But he's primarily in High A ball because he was drafted in the middle of last year out of college. He started last year in the rookie league because that's where you start guys who are drafted in the 39th round.(!!!) It took him just six games, seven innings and 10 strikeouts to earn a promotion to Low A ball. He spend the rest of the year there, striking out 39(!) batters in 24 innings (with 9 walks).

This year he started in High A ball, and it's been more of the same. 43 strikeouts in 26 innings with 9 walks and 0 home runs against. In fact, he hasn't give up a home run yet in his minor league career. Lefties are batting just .140 against him, and righties just .111.

I would argue that the Twins have been moving him fairly aggressively, but Nick is right in that they should continue to do so. I'll go so far as to say that I would love to see him in a September call-up situation. Anyone know anything more about him?

CubberLang said...
As a Rochester native, I've seen Lahey throw quite a few times. If you actually look at Lahey's loses- they were on errors in the field and little dink shots. He's had one ball hit hard off him all year.

To be totally honest, I can't figure out why he's not here already. Or at least I can't figure out exactly why he's not here already. Today the Twins picked up Craig Breslow, a left-handed reliever from the Indians, because the Yankees have traditionally had several batters who are susceptible to southpaws.

To make room for him on the roster, I suspect they'll send Bobby Korecky back down to Rochester, even though he doesn't really deserve it. But the only other real option is to cut bait on Juan Rincon and you don't lose a guy to gamble on a left-handed mediocrity. Plus, Rincon still seems to have more of Gardy's confidence than Korecky, for whatever reason.

But unless Breslow is immediately returned to the recyclables plant after this Yankees series, Lahey might well end up three deep from getting a callup. H's likely behind Korecky and Breslow, and by Tuesday we'll probably see Bonser in the bullpen. That's got to be tough pill to swallow since just last weekend he was probably on more Tigers' blowout away from finding his way up here. I'm betting he won't be sending Glen Perkins a Christmas present.


On Buttons and Being Emminently Winnable

KEN said...
Cleveland

My first reaction was to also label the Tribe as still the favorite - but based on what? They're five games under .500. In run differential they're barely above .500. The front of their rotation looks tired. Their offense is slumping and two of their most valuable hitters are either fading fast (Hafner) or battling injuries (Martinez). And their bullpen is six fuses sticking out of a powder keg. Again.

Plus, they have a losing record versus their division. They are .500 or below against right-handed and left-handed pitching. They haven't been especially unlucky in terms of one-run losses. I'm just not sure why - based on this year - I would label them favorites.

The reason I would have labeled them favorites was because of what they did last year, but let's not forget that after years and years of being talked up as the up-and-coming dynasty in the AL Central, last year was only the second time they fulfilled that promise. They underachieved in 2006, 2004, and 2003. I'm trying to remember if they've shown the ability to heat up after a slow start in any year of this decade, and if anything, it seems like the opposite. Either they start hot, or they're cooked.

In short, my predilection for Cleveland seems based more on my analysis in March than on what it is now. And maybe I should rethink that analysis.

Jesse said...
Whichever team decides to NOT shoot itself in the foot.

Except Kansas City. They're not it.

I guess I agree. Although I might also count out Detroit, who I just can't see winning consistently enough to contend. This is going to be a very fun year to watch baseball. And it's going to especially be a fun year to watch the little things that might add up in the margins, beyond what our run differential and EQA formulas tell us.

7 comments:

KEN said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
KEN said...

You said, "3. He is credited with at least ⅓ of an inning pitched
...
So I thought you could get a save just by getting out the last batter two. But doesn't the 3rd condition up there preclude that? I'll be interested in everyone's comment on that."

Where is the conflict there? It says you can get a save if you are credited with at least 1/3 of an inning pitched...one out...so by getting the last batter you can get a save.

Were you talking about the third condition under the fourth condition, about pitching three innings? Because you only have to meet one of those criteria under number four, in addition the three above it, to get the save.

And, yeah, the Cleveland comment was based on these things: 1) my analysis in March (which you mentioned), 2) Detroit's current record (which you also mentioned, and 3) my utter distrust in the Twins or the White Sox, and I have more reason to distrust the Twins based on what I've seen this year than the Sox.

John said...

Problem solved.

Actually ken, it says "1/2" not "1/3", which is why I was confused. That's the rules as I found them, but it must have been a typo. If you look on the MLB site, the official rules (which are at http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2008/official_rules/10_the_official_scorer.pdf) it does say 1/3.

My bad. Thanks.

John

h. said...

If the Indigenous Folk continue their trend, any speculation on if they might trade Captain Cheeseburger?

Nick N. said...

Here's what I know about Slama:

Lanky reliever, comes overhand and occasionally drops down to a three-quarters arm-slot, throws a fastball in the low 90s and mixes in a good slider. Keeps the ball down in the zone; gets tons of ground balls and gives up very few home runs. His delivery is somewhat unorthodox and he has kind of an ugly follow-through, which I believe is one reason he fell so far in the draft.

Poor wording on my part to say the Twins "need to start moving [him] aggressively." Obviously, they already have been, since he's on pace to finish the year in New Britain which would mean he'll have gone through four levels in 1.5 years in the organization. What I meant is that I want to see him up in New Britain very soon, and possibly up to Rochester at the end of the year if he continues to dominate. I agree that he looks like a good Sept. call-up candidate.

TT said...

Even in the event he manages to pass the long line of pitchers in front of him and gets to AAA , Slama is a very unlikely September callup. He doesn't need to be added to the roster after this season. Its the high school kids taken in 2004 and the college players from 2005 who will be eligible for the rule 5 draft this year. Plouffe and Duensing being examples of each who are likely to be added to the roster and therefore might get a callup depending on their performance this year.

Ben said...

Did you edit that post? Because I was thinking the same thing as Ken, only I copied and pasted into word, then made the size bigger, and it said one-third.