It’s more painful because we remember it so well from last year.
The underperforming veterans returned to validate all our doubts in spring, but were still handed a starting job. Their struggles continued and seemingly infected the rest of the team. Finally, after a couple of dismal months, they were replaced with the younger players that we all knew should have been there in the first place. It was recognized, both internally and externally, as the turning point for the team.
The names have changed, but the story is the same. Instead of Kyle Lohse, Juan Castro and Tony Batista, Twins fans (and impartial baseball observers) are wondering why the Twins are wasting their time with Carlos Silva, Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson. Those three pitchers were terrible last year and Silva and Ponson haven’t demonstrated any legitimate signs of improvement this spring.
So the most maddening part to Twins fans isn’t that Twins seem dedicated to these reclamation projects. (Hey, we’re all about reclamation projects. Haven’t you read the press clippings?) The maddening part is that the Twins don’t seem to have learned anything from last year. Or at least nothing beyond “We can get away with putting inferior veterans on the field for the first two months.”
Which would be tragic except for one thing: I'm not totally sure that they're wrong.
Starting the crappy veterans while keeping the kids in Rochester does have some benefits, (and you can be sure that everyone involved is listing them). It keeps early expectations off the kids, letting them get hungry in Rochester while building some momentum and confidence. It gives the organization extra depth, since some of those veterans would need to be released if not handed a spot now. That’s especially handy when injuries inevitably strike. Finally it also puts pressure on the veterans to perform. We could come up with a half dozen more.
Hogwash? It kind of feels like it, doesn't it? But the bottom line is that it worked really well last year. I don't believe Jason Bartlett "learned" anything of use with his demotion to Rochester, but his promotion did correspond with a torrid hitting streak that eased everyone's doubts, including his own. I don't think having Batista lunge (lounge?) around at the hot corner helped Nick Punto, but then I didn't think Punto would be a productive regular third baseman. And how can anyone argue with how Francisco Liriano turned out before he was hurt.
Of course, it also means starting guys who sure seem washed up for the first six weeks. But what does that cost the team? Maybe a slight downgrade of talent for 40 games? Which might cost them a couple of games, maybe? And will likely be corrected with 120+ game left? We may need to understand that an Opening Day spot doesn’t guarantee anyone 33 starts. For Silva/Ponson/Ortiz, it likely doesn’t mean more than a six start trial.
So while it’s not the way I would do things, I’m not sure that starting the season with The Triumvercrap is the worst idea. After all, the baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. While it feels a little Orwellian to make an argument that less is more, given their success last year, this organization probably has earned a delayed sentence.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Round One (XII)
It’s a tradition – the decadence that is the first round of the NCAA tournament. What isn’t a tradition is blogging, live, from a bar. Thank God for Wi-Fi.…..
The Ride Over – I’m climbing into my car about an hour and a half later than I wanted, but the grumpiness is washed away by the euphoria. There may be a higher plane reached later today, but this moment is why I do this. The tickled feeling you get from leaving work, meeting friends, and ordering that first afternoon beer is literally the whole reason I do this. Everything else may or may not happen. But this is the moment I can count on.
The Entry – I arrive at Senser’s, and the people I can count on. Michele, Bob and The Voice of Reason™. Michele always shows and Bob always runs the bracket and arranges the table. But TVOR is the reason is the reason I’m still going.
Raised in Philly and an alum of a Big 5 school, she loves this damn thing. There are years I think I can’t leave work, or arranging the sitters is a hassle, or work is just too hectic. And so I start to hedge, and she never hesitates – she signs off on the sitter, promises to be there at noon, and deals with the kids in between the games. She is a machine. I had to look a thousand miles to find her. It was worth it.
The Lunch – The waitress makes sure to offer me the extra cheese, waffle fries, and seasoned sour cream. TVOR points out that the same waitress offered her none of these. We decide that “I look like I like cheese.” I don’t think that’s a good thing.
Standford – The first thing I notice as I look at the games it that the Cardinal are losing big to Louisville, and they’re not going to rebound. That’s not good news for The Boy™, who filled out his first pool of his life last night. My little future math major decided that “maybe an 11 will beat a 6”. Or, maybe (as Matt says) they’ll lose by “plenty to ugly”.
TT– There are only a few minutes left in Texas Tech’s loss to Boston College when I realize I haven’t seen Bobby Knight yet. Nobody else at the table has noticed him either. Surprisingly, he hasn’t been tossed, he’s just not really participating. His team makes a couple of bone-headed plays at the end of the game when deciding not to foul a team. I wonder if he’s just done. Or maybe has been for a while.
Davidson vs. Maryland – Davidson keeps it close, but it’s not a great game, or at least not between great team. Eventually, it becomes clear that Davidson has one scorer and he’s out of gas. Maryland finishes them off and we’re heading to the second set of games.
Bracket Tally - After the first set of games, the leader in our family is The Chatty, Chatty Princess™. I’m tied with “The Blind Monkey”, the randomly generated bracket that we use for especially severe ridicule. Bob, our tournament organizer is even worse.
Georgetown – Within the first sixty seconds, Georgetown’s point guard Anthony Sapp has three Belmont Bruins scrambling around him to steal the ball, and he never picks up the dribble. That’s all I need to see. I love this kid. Belmont plays the Hoyas very tough for the first 12 minutes, but Georgetown just eventually beats them down. Belmont was a much better team than I thought, but it wasn’t close. Georgetown is impressive.
Penn – With 19:44 second remaining in the first half, TVOR announces that she’s happy she didn’t pick Penn. For the record, that means the Big Five fan turned her back on them 16 seconds after the game started. And I can’t blame here. Listed among Penn’s “Big Wins” were Yale and LaSalle. La Salle finished last in the A-10.
To Penn’s credit, they come back big time versus Texas A & M, providing the only real excitement of the afternoon. But after taking the lead, the Aggies score something like the next 10 points. Game over. Sorry Quakers.
The Memory – Bob tells me that in our youth we went to party, and decided that our jobs of systems guys weren’t going to cutit. So we decided to go as rival toothbrush salesmen. I would apparently draw people into a conversation, and tell them that in a couple of months, we were going to introduce “something big”. Then I would confidentially tall them “In a couple of months, you are NEVER going to have to FLOSS AGAIN.”
For the record, I remember none of this. There is at least a 50% chance that Bob is dreaming all this up to see if I pretend I remember. He’s that brilliant.
Butler – The Bulldogs find themselves in a defensive dog fight against Old Dominion. And by defensive, I mean Big Ten on ‘ludes. kinda defensive. The score is 20-19 at half. Then Pete Campbell, a 6’ 7” forward, drains four straight threes from half a dozen feet beyond the arc, and that’s it. In that kind of a defensive battle, it’s game over.
Washington State – The kid can play ball – he was the difference maker in today’s win over Oral Roberts – but that doesn’t change the fact that Derrick Low’s moustache is EXACTLY like the one my friend Craig Stanton grew in 7th grade.
George Washington – The bloggers show for the final game of the afternoon, since Will Young is a GW alum. It doesn’t go well. I’ll spare you the gory details, but suffice to say that Will stops seething at halftime long enough to spit out that this is “a rebuilding year”, so you can guess how that game went.
As the first two rounds of games end, one of the TVs switches to the girl’s high school basketball tournament. TVOR takes that opportunity to turn purple and spit fire. Good lord, I love this woman. And so I think I’ll spend the rest of the night watching some basketball with her. See you on Monday.
The Ride Over – I’m climbing into my car about an hour and a half later than I wanted, but the grumpiness is washed away by the euphoria. There may be a higher plane reached later today, but this moment is why I do this. The tickled feeling you get from leaving work, meeting friends, and ordering that first afternoon beer is literally the whole reason I do this. Everything else may or may not happen. But this is the moment I can count on.
The Entry – I arrive at Senser’s, and the people I can count on. Michele, Bob and The Voice of Reason™. Michele always shows and Bob always runs the bracket and arranges the table. But TVOR is the reason is the reason I’m still going.
Raised in Philly and an alum of a Big 5 school, she loves this damn thing. There are years I think I can’t leave work, or arranging the sitters is a hassle, or work is just too hectic. And so I start to hedge, and she never hesitates – she signs off on the sitter, promises to be there at noon, and deals with the kids in between the games. She is a machine. I had to look a thousand miles to find her. It was worth it.
The Lunch – The waitress makes sure to offer me the extra cheese, waffle fries, and seasoned sour cream. TVOR points out that the same waitress offered her none of these. We decide that “I look like I like cheese.” I don’t think that’s a good thing.
Standford – The first thing I notice as I look at the games it that the Cardinal are losing big to Louisville, and they’re not going to rebound. That’s not good news for The Boy™, who filled out his first pool of his life last night. My little future math major decided that “maybe an 11 will beat a 6”. Or, maybe (as Matt says) they’ll lose by “plenty to ugly”.
TT– There are only a few minutes left in Texas Tech’s loss to Boston College when I realize I haven’t seen Bobby Knight yet. Nobody else at the table has noticed him either. Surprisingly, he hasn’t been tossed, he’s just not really participating. His team makes a couple of bone-headed plays at the end of the game when deciding not to foul a team. I wonder if he’s just done. Or maybe has been for a while.
Davidson vs. Maryland – Davidson keeps it close, but it’s not a great game, or at least not between great team. Eventually, it becomes clear that Davidson has one scorer and he’s out of gas. Maryland finishes them off and we’re heading to the second set of games.
Bracket Tally - After the first set of games, the leader in our family is The Chatty, Chatty Princess™. I’m tied with “The Blind Monkey”, the randomly generated bracket that we use for especially severe ridicule. Bob, our tournament organizer is even worse.
Georgetown – Within the first sixty seconds, Georgetown’s point guard Anthony Sapp has three Belmont Bruins scrambling around him to steal the ball, and he never picks up the dribble. That’s all I need to see. I love this kid. Belmont plays the Hoyas very tough for the first 12 minutes, but Georgetown just eventually beats them down. Belmont was a much better team than I thought, but it wasn’t close. Georgetown is impressive.
Penn – With 19:44 second remaining in the first half, TVOR announces that she’s happy she didn’t pick Penn. For the record, that means the Big Five fan turned her back on them 16 seconds after the game started. And I can’t blame here. Listed among Penn’s “Big Wins” were Yale and LaSalle. La Salle finished last in the A-10.
To Penn’s credit, they come back big time versus Texas A & M, providing the only real excitement of the afternoon. But after taking the lead, the Aggies score something like the next 10 points. Game over. Sorry Quakers.
The Memory – Bob tells me that in our youth we went to party, and decided that our jobs of systems guys weren’t going to cutit. So we decided to go as rival toothbrush salesmen. I would apparently draw people into a conversation, and tell them that in a couple of months, we were going to introduce “something big”. Then I would confidentially tall them “In a couple of months, you are NEVER going to have to FLOSS AGAIN.”
For the record, I remember none of this. There is at least a 50% chance that Bob is dreaming all this up to see if I pretend I remember. He’s that brilliant.
Butler – The Bulldogs find themselves in a defensive dog fight against Old Dominion. And by defensive, I mean Big Ten on ‘ludes. kinda defensive. The score is 20-19 at half. Then Pete Campbell, a 6’ 7” forward, drains four straight threes from half a dozen feet beyond the arc, and that’s it. In that kind of a defensive battle, it’s game over.
Washington State – The kid can play ball – he was the difference maker in today’s win over Oral Roberts – but that doesn’t change the fact that Derrick Low’s moustache is EXACTLY like the one my friend Craig Stanton grew in 7th grade.
George Washington – The bloggers show for the final game of the afternoon, since Will Young is a GW alum. It doesn’t go well. I’ll spare you the gory details, but suffice to say that Will stops seething at halftime long enough to spit out that this is “a rebuilding year”, so you can guess how that game went.
As the first two rounds of games end, one of the TVs switches to the girl’s high school basketball tournament. TVOR takes that opportunity to turn purple and spit fire. Good lord, I love this woman. And so I think I’ll spend the rest of the night watching some basketball with her. See you on Monday.
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
All Wet
Ask a fish about water sometime. They can talk endlessly about the stuff and they’re smarter than you think. Temperature, viscosity, transparency – they’re experts on it all, including traits that would never occur to us. But there’s one pretty basic characteristic of water that they never understand, no matter how much you explain it. (And don’t think I haven’t tried.)
The don’t understand “wet”.
The lesson, as always, is that I spend way too much time thinking about random things. And it’s a sickness. And I’m crying out for help. But the other lesson is that even when you dedicate your life to studying something, that very act can leave you blind to something pretty basic.
Ron Gardenhire dedicated his early life to being a shortstop, and one wonders if that hasn’t blinded him in some ways. Gardenhire’s major league career was over by the time he was 27 years old, so he likely spent some time thinking about how some teams could really use another true backup shortstop, like he was. And a lot of the time, he was probably right.
But that need isn’t as clear right now for the Twins. They came into camp with at least one backup shortstop in Nick Punto, who has played shortstop throughout his major league career. Luis Rodriguez did too, playing regularly at shortstop until he arrived in Rochester. But Gardenhire has declared that Punto won’t serve as a backup, and Rodriguez can’t handle shortstop, so the question being asked is who the backup shortstop is going to be.
The more interesting question is why there aren’t any real candidates in camp. That’s not the kind of thing that is difficult to pick up during the offseason. Was the front office not aware of Gardenhire’s views?
The Twins did choose Alejandro Machado in the rule V draft, but no competitive team hands a Rule V draftee a job before spring training. That would seem to be especially true for a team managed by Gardenhire who attaches the prefix “veteran” to “backup shortstop” as if they’re one long word.
The problem with giving veteran middle infielders to Gardenhire is his track record for doing such silly things with them. Last year’s infatuation with Juan Castro didn’t end until Castro was traded away. Actually, judging from statements early this spring, it still hasn’t. While playing the Reds, Gardenhire openly pined for Castro again, talking about how the Reds gave Castro a two-year deal.
Which raises the question whether the front office didn’t provide Gardenhire with a veteran option on purpose. Which further raises the question whether Gardenhire wants a veteran backup shortstop because he refuses to move Punto, or whether he refuses to move Punto because he wants another veteran backup shortstop?
At this point, does it matter? If there’s one thing we know about Gardenhire, it’s that he isn’t afraid to be stubborn about this sort of thing. If you weren’t convinced by Bartlett’s demotion last year, perhaps the words “Corky Miller” will ring a bell? The Twins waived Michael Restovich so Gardy could keep a fourth catcher on the roster.
So what options does the front office have? Machado is supposedly going to be playing soon, but the smart money is that he won’t be the manager’s first choice. Gardenhire is already talking up Alexi Casilla, which puts Terry Ryan in the position of planting the 22-year-old on the Twins bench while the prospect’s service clock ticks and skills atrophy.
Hmmm. Or I suppose Ryan could trade for a veteran backup shortstop….
See? I told you fish were smarter than you think.
Twins Takes
On Monday, the Twins pounded Dontrelle Willis for six runs in a couple of innings. Also on Monday, the Cubs announced that Mark Prior would pitch in “B” squad games until he regains his confidence.
Two young pitchers who had instantaneous success in the majors. Two young pitchers who had boundless ceilings. And two young pitchers who never really regained the promise they showed so early and so young.
And neither of them had to undergo Tommy John surgery.
I think forward to 2008, and I think of a rotation of Johan Santana, Franciso Liriano, Matt Garza and Boof Bonser with another young gun like Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey holding down the fifth spot. And involuntarily, I get giddy. And then I see a day like Monday, and I wonder if Liriano will ever be the same.
Deep down, I know the answer is no. That half season’s performance was so good that the reigning Cy Young winner look like an underachiever. To expect anything close is silly at best, damaging at worst.
But let’s hope Liriano fares better than a couple of the other young phenoms who burned so bright so early.
The don’t understand “wet”.
The lesson, as always, is that I spend way too much time thinking about random things. And it’s a sickness. And I’m crying out for help. But the other lesson is that even when you dedicate your life to studying something, that very act can leave you blind to something pretty basic.
Ron Gardenhire dedicated his early life to being a shortstop, and one wonders if that hasn’t blinded him in some ways. Gardenhire’s major league career was over by the time he was 27 years old, so he likely spent some time thinking about how some teams could really use another true backup shortstop, like he was. And a lot of the time, he was probably right.
But that need isn’t as clear right now for the Twins. They came into camp with at least one backup shortstop in Nick Punto, who has played shortstop throughout his major league career. Luis Rodriguez did too, playing regularly at shortstop until he arrived in Rochester. But Gardenhire has declared that Punto won’t serve as a backup, and Rodriguez can’t handle shortstop, so the question being asked is who the backup shortstop is going to be.
The more interesting question is why there aren’t any real candidates in camp. That’s not the kind of thing that is difficult to pick up during the offseason. Was the front office not aware of Gardenhire’s views?
The Twins did choose Alejandro Machado in the rule V draft, but no competitive team hands a Rule V draftee a job before spring training. That would seem to be especially true for a team managed by Gardenhire who attaches the prefix “veteran” to “backup shortstop” as if they’re one long word.
The problem with giving veteran middle infielders to Gardenhire is his track record for doing such silly things with them. Last year’s infatuation with Juan Castro didn’t end until Castro was traded away. Actually, judging from statements early this spring, it still hasn’t. While playing the Reds, Gardenhire openly pined for Castro again, talking about how the Reds gave Castro a two-year deal.
Which raises the question whether the front office didn’t provide Gardenhire with a veteran option on purpose. Which further raises the question whether Gardenhire wants a veteran backup shortstop because he refuses to move Punto, or whether he refuses to move Punto because he wants another veteran backup shortstop?
At this point, does it matter? If there’s one thing we know about Gardenhire, it’s that he isn’t afraid to be stubborn about this sort of thing. If you weren’t convinced by Bartlett’s demotion last year, perhaps the words “Corky Miller” will ring a bell? The Twins waived Michael Restovich so Gardy could keep a fourth catcher on the roster.
So what options does the front office have? Machado is supposedly going to be playing soon, but the smart money is that he won’t be the manager’s first choice. Gardenhire is already talking up Alexi Casilla, which puts Terry Ryan in the position of planting the 22-year-old on the Twins bench while the prospect’s service clock ticks and skills atrophy.
Hmmm. Or I suppose Ryan could trade for a veteran backup shortstop….
See? I told you fish were smarter than you think.
Twins Takes
On Monday, the Twins pounded Dontrelle Willis for six runs in a couple of innings. Also on Monday, the Cubs announced that Mark Prior would pitch in “B” squad games until he regains his confidence.
Two young pitchers who had instantaneous success in the majors. Two young pitchers who had boundless ceilings. And two young pitchers who never really regained the promise they showed so early and so young.
And neither of them had to undergo Tommy John surgery.
I think forward to 2008, and I think of a rotation of Johan Santana, Franciso Liriano, Matt Garza and Boof Bonser with another young gun like Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey holding down the fifth spot. And involuntarily, I get giddy. And then I see a day like Monday, and I wonder if Liriano will ever be the same.
Deep down, I know the answer is no. That half season’s performance was so good that the reigning Cy Young winner look like an underachiever. To expect anything close is silly at best, damaging at worst.
But let’s hope Liriano fares better than a couple of the other young phenoms who burned so bright so early.
Monday, March 12, 2007
A Guide for the Bracketly Challanged
“Another damn NCAA column? How about some baseball? Must we all talk about college baseketball 24/7? Will nothing stop the (March) madness!!!”
There, I saved you the work of an angry comment about a non-baseball article. Hey, I’m the Twins Geek, so I feel your pain. But if the NCAA tournament isn’t the greatest event in sports today, it’s at least the greatest gimmick in sports today. You – yes, even you -can get into it, too. Just follow these simple steps and you’ll assimilate just fine. You might even enjoy it.
(And if you’re looking for a baseball angle, understand that most major leaguers are paying as much attention to their brackets as to the race for the last roster spot. Plus, there’s a Twins Take at the bottom. But only if you plow through the rest….)
Step 1: Take half of Thursday and all of Friday off work.
You may think you’re too cynical. You may thing you’re too mature. You may think this is a waste of time. None of these are true.
It is never a waste of time to watch a bunch of kids play under bright lights (many for the first and last time), pursuing a dream. You may believe that major college sports are thinly disguised professional leagues, and for half the teams this may be true. But there is NO WAY you can’t get behind a Central Connecticut State, or a team named the “Salukis”.
Unless of course, you didn’t pick them in your bracket. Which brings us to Step 2…
Step 2. Fill out a bracket.
Find someone – a friend, a guy at work, a web site – someone who is running a bracket pool and join the fray. You may not be an expert, but it doesn’t matter. For the next three weeks people are going to be talking about this thing, and it’s so much more fun it you have some stake in the outcome. Consider the entry fee a ticket to a social life.
Besides, it isn’t that hard to have a decent showing with just a few tips. Just the last tip below will likely put you in the top half of your pool. Invest an hour in the rest, and you could see your name hanging around the top of the standings for the next several weeks.
Tip: Find a nice short summary of each team – They’re in most papers, and they need to be written before the conference tournaments, so they’re more objective than most of the coverage you’ll see. Just put a “+” next to the teams that mention:
- good defensive reputations
- solid guards, especially if they have one with a lot of assists
- a lot of seniors
- a really good center
Put a “-“ next to the teams that have
- the words “run and gun” in their description
- haven’t played many other teams in the tourney
- have given up a lot of points.
Tip: Lose the hype – For the first round (and only the first round), put a “-“ next to a team if they won their tournament or if you see them mentioned anyplace as a sleeper or favorite. These are college kids, after all. They’ve been digesting this stuff, whether they want to or not, and are due for a let down. Alternately, if a team was supposed to win their tournament but failed, plan on a pretty decent first game for them. (But they may let down their guard in the second round).
Tip: Don’t get carried away with the underdogs – The rankings are pretty accurate. You need to really like an underdog to pick them, even in the first round. They want to pick them to go further, but understand that they almost never do. Maybe it’s the euphoria of the big win, or maybe the big programs become familiar with them after watching them play, but almost no underdogs make it past the Sweet Sixteen. The real key to a great story is knowing when to end it.
The Last Tip: Know your bracket’s scoring system – If you do nothing else than understand your bracket’s scoring system and pick accordingly, you’ll still end up in the top half of the pool. About 80% of all brackets greatly favor picking either underdogs or favorites.
If a bracket isn’t rewarding you, and I mean REALLY rewarding you for picking underdogs, then don’t pick many underdogs. If the big points come from the Final Four or championship, make damn sure favorites ends up in those spots. You’re allowed to work backwards in these things.
Step 3: Watch the first round with friends.
How many friends do you need? It depends on how hoops crazy they are. If they’re legitimately nuts, one will do. But more is always better.
I highly recommend starting at noon on Thursday, if for no other reason than you are sitting, watching basketball, and yacking with your friends at noon on Thursday. It’s just so deliciously slacker.
The bigger question is where you watch the games. There are 3-4 games at almost all times, and CBS will pick one for your market and then only go to other games if they are close. Ideally, you’ll want a place with at least three TVs and a satellite package that shows all the games. I prefer a bar, partly because I like to talk to the rest of the hoopheads about the games, too.
The bottom line is this isn’t a sporting event. It’s a week long party, culminating in a two-day celebration of youthful exuberance. Do yourself a favor and try and dig up some of your own. You won’t regret it.
Twins Takes
Jeromy Burnitz, who played for the Pirates last year and replaced Sammy Sosa with the Cubs before that, retired on Sunday. Every spring there are veterans who don’t get offers and are forced to retire, and that’s been the case this season as well. Twins fans will remember Phil Nevin from the end of last season, and he’s being joined by past stars Eric Young and Brian Jordan.
But Burnitz had one thing going for him that none of these other guys did – he hit left-handed. His numbers dove last year, but he still hit 15 home runs against right-handed pitchers in 255 at-bats. With the 25th roster spot suddenly open, one can’t help but notice that biggest left-handed power threat on the Twins bench is Jason Tyner, who hasn’t hit a home run in 1052 major league at-bats.
I assume that the Twins have done their homework here, and that Burnitz really is finished. But for all the designated hitters that the Twins brought into camp, the only left-handed option is Garret Jones, who continues to be just miserable. I assume that neither of them are the answer, but the Twins would probably be better served by adding someone like them than a twelfth pitcher or second backup infielder.
There, I saved you the work of an angry comment about a non-baseball article. Hey, I’m the Twins Geek, so I feel your pain. But if the NCAA tournament isn’t the greatest event in sports today, it’s at least the greatest gimmick in sports today. You – yes, even you -can get into it, too. Just follow these simple steps and you’ll assimilate just fine. You might even enjoy it.
(And if you’re looking for a baseball angle, understand that most major leaguers are paying as much attention to their brackets as to the race for the last roster spot. Plus, there’s a Twins Take at the bottom. But only if you plow through the rest….)
Step 1: Take half of Thursday and all of Friday off work.
You may think you’re too cynical. You may thing you’re too mature. You may think this is a waste of time. None of these are true.
It is never a waste of time to watch a bunch of kids play under bright lights (many for the first and last time), pursuing a dream. You may believe that major college sports are thinly disguised professional leagues, and for half the teams this may be true. But there is NO WAY you can’t get behind a Central Connecticut State, or a team named the “Salukis”.
Unless of course, you didn’t pick them in your bracket. Which brings us to Step 2…
Step 2. Fill out a bracket.
Find someone – a friend, a guy at work, a web site – someone who is running a bracket pool and join the fray. You may not be an expert, but it doesn’t matter. For the next three weeks people are going to be talking about this thing, and it’s so much more fun it you have some stake in the outcome. Consider the entry fee a ticket to a social life.
Besides, it isn’t that hard to have a decent showing with just a few tips. Just the last tip below will likely put you in the top half of your pool. Invest an hour in the rest, and you could see your name hanging around the top of the standings for the next several weeks.
Tip: Find a nice short summary of each team – They’re in most papers, and they need to be written before the conference tournaments, so they’re more objective than most of the coverage you’ll see. Just put a “+” next to the teams that mention:
- good defensive reputations
- solid guards, especially if they have one with a lot of assists
- a lot of seniors
- a really good center
Put a “-“ next to the teams that have
- the words “run and gun” in their description
- haven’t played many other teams in the tourney
- have given up a lot of points.
Tip: Lose the hype – For the first round (and only the first round), put a “-“ next to a team if they won their tournament or if you see them mentioned anyplace as a sleeper or favorite. These are college kids, after all. They’ve been digesting this stuff, whether they want to or not, and are due for a let down. Alternately, if a team was supposed to win their tournament but failed, plan on a pretty decent first game for them. (But they may let down their guard in the second round).
Tip: Don’t get carried away with the underdogs – The rankings are pretty accurate. You need to really like an underdog to pick them, even in the first round. They want to pick them to go further, but understand that they almost never do. Maybe it’s the euphoria of the big win, or maybe the big programs become familiar with them after watching them play, but almost no underdogs make it past the Sweet Sixteen. The real key to a great story is knowing when to end it.
The Last Tip: Know your bracket’s scoring system – If you do nothing else than understand your bracket’s scoring system and pick accordingly, you’ll still end up in the top half of the pool. About 80% of all brackets greatly favor picking either underdogs or favorites.
If a bracket isn’t rewarding you, and I mean REALLY rewarding you for picking underdogs, then don’t pick many underdogs. If the big points come from the Final Four or championship, make damn sure favorites ends up in those spots. You’re allowed to work backwards in these things.
Step 3: Watch the first round with friends.
How many friends do you need? It depends on how hoops crazy they are. If they’re legitimately nuts, one will do. But more is always better.
I highly recommend starting at noon on Thursday, if for no other reason than you are sitting, watching basketball, and yacking with your friends at noon on Thursday. It’s just so deliciously slacker.
The bigger question is where you watch the games. There are 3-4 games at almost all times, and CBS will pick one for your market and then only go to other games if they are close. Ideally, you’ll want a place with at least three TVs and a satellite package that shows all the games. I prefer a bar, partly because I like to talk to the rest of the hoopheads about the games, too.
The bottom line is this isn’t a sporting event. It’s a week long party, culminating in a two-day celebration of youthful exuberance. Do yourself a favor and try and dig up some of your own. You won’t regret it.
Twins Takes
Jeromy Burnitz, who played for the Pirates last year and replaced Sammy Sosa with the Cubs before that, retired on Sunday. Every spring there are veterans who don’t get offers and are forced to retire, and that’s been the case this season as well. Twins fans will remember Phil Nevin from the end of last season, and he’s being joined by past stars Eric Young and Brian Jordan.
But Burnitz had one thing going for him that none of these other guys did – he hit left-handed. His numbers dove last year, but he still hit 15 home runs against right-handed pitchers in 255 at-bats. With the 25th roster spot suddenly open, one can’t help but notice that biggest left-handed power threat on the Twins bench is Jason Tyner, who hasn’t hit a home run in 1052 major league at-bats.
I assume that the Twins have done their homework here, and that Burnitz really is finished. But for all the designated hitters that the Twins brought into camp, the only left-handed option is Garret Jones, who continues to be just miserable. I assume that neither of them are the answer, but the Twins would probably be better served by adding someone like them than a twelfth pitcher or second backup infielder.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Lingering Injuries
They keep telling us that Matt Garza’s neck is just stiff, but they can’t fool me. It’s some degenerative spinal injury, requiring at least a half year’s worth of rehab.
And that’s if we’re suddenly lucky.
For some major league franchises, the cost of the minor leagues is just the cost of doing business. To the Twins, it’s an investment. The millions of dollars that are spent in salaries, scouting, per diems and signing bonuses are quickly recouped when a high-impact rookie provides millions of dollars worth of production for pennies on the dollar.
For instance, for the numbers that Justinn Morneau and Joe Mauer put up last year, a good chunk of teams would have been happy to pay $10 million. Each. And then they would’ve toasted their good fortune.
The Twins paid them $785,000. Combined. Which means that the Twins previous investments in the minor leagues provided at least a $19 million return for the organization, just for those two players. That’s the kind of return that low-revenue, low-payroll teams need be competitive.
Unfortunately, the Twins ability to leverage those investments has been limited due to a nearly unprecedented string of year-long injuries to high ceiling prospects. The Twins have had four players in the last few years who were considered elite prospects, an impressive number for any organization. But so far only Garza had managed to stay relatively healthy (knock, knock).
Joe Mauer’s knee cost him almost all of 2004. Jason Kubel’s knee cost him almost all of 2005 and ultimately most of 2006. Francisco Liriano’s elbow cost him half of 2006 and all of 2007. And the concussion from a bean-ball, along with a series of offseason plagues, didn’t keep Justin Mornea from playing 2005, but likely cost him a year of development.
Of course, injuries are a part of the game, and it isn’t difficult to find other teams who had players that suffered year-long injuries. You might even be able to find another team with year-long injuries to four high-impact players. But you’ll need to look long and hard to find a team that had worse timing.
That’s because what REALLY hurts a team like the Twins is that they all happened within the first two years of each player’s major league careers. Injuries those two years minimize the return a team receives from their minor league investments. But they hurt just as much years after the player has healed, because it makes it unlikely that a club can sign their high-impact players to a long-term contract that is below market value.
There is no better time for a ballclub to approach a rising star about a long-term deal than after their second complete season as major leaguer. Up to that point, the player has made close to the major league minimum, probably in the neighborhoold of $300-400,000 per year. That’s some nice ching to be sure, but it’s likely not enough to make sure they’ll never need a real job. They still have one more year to play before their first year of arbitration, which is where a star player can suddenly make several million dollars.
If the club offers the player a multi-year guaranteed deal after two years, they’re offering a lifetime of security a year earlier than the player would otherwise receive it. And all they’re asking in return is for the ballplayer to be a little less filthy rich over the next few years. It makes a ton of sense for both the ballplayer and the club to agree to that kind of a deal.
But because of early injuries, the Twins have yet to agree to that kind of deal with any of their young impact players. Everyone talked about locking up Maure and Morneau this year, but the time to negotiate with them was last offseason, before they reached arbitration. Unfrotunately, Morneau had underperformed through an injury-plagued year, and Mauer’s knee was still a question mark. Instead, the Twins didn’t get to talk about long-term deals until each one of them was already guaranteed a lifetime of security with their $4 million arbitration settlements.
This spring, Kubel is in the same boat as Mauer and Morneau were last year. You can bet that two years ago the Twins planned on approaching him with a long-term deal this offseason. They can’t, because they don’t know if his knees will remain healthy, or whether he’ll regain his stroke. If he does this year, he’ll get his $3 million whether or not he signs a long-term deal with the Twins. And we’ll be wondering why he and the Twins can’t get a long-term deal done.
And next offseason? Well, Liriano will be finishing his second year – except that he won’t have pitched in the majors for a year-and-a-half. So the Twins won’t be able to comfortably offer him a long-term deal, and will again see if their highly prized prospect breaks out just before his first big pay day. And you wonder why they weren’t anxious to have Liriano go under the knife?
When a star player’s lack of production is taken into account, the cost of an injury for every team is easily in the millions of dollars. That’s already devastating to most low revenue franchises. But the timing of these injuries is even worse, because it’s likely costing the Twins another $1-2 million worth of salary per year than if they could have negotiated a long-term deal at the best possible time. And it’s happened four times.
Is there any doubt the fifth is coming? So when you see pictures of Terry Ryan standing behind Garza in the Twins dugout, delivering a neck massage, don’t be so sure it’s a Photoshop job. That neck rub could be as valuable an investment as the entirety of the Twins minor league payroll.
Twins Takes
And that’s if we’re suddenly lucky.
For some major league franchises, the cost of the minor leagues is just the cost of doing business. To the Twins, it’s an investment. The millions of dollars that are spent in salaries, scouting, per diems and signing bonuses are quickly recouped when a high-impact rookie provides millions of dollars worth of production for pennies on the dollar.For instance, for the numbers that Justinn Morneau and Joe Mauer put up last year, a good chunk of teams would have been happy to pay $10 million. Each. And then they would’ve toasted their good fortune.
The Twins paid them $785,000. Combined. Which means that the Twins previous investments in the minor leagues provided at least a $19 million return for the organization, just for those two players. That’s the kind of return that low-revenue, low-payroll teams need be competitive.
Unfortunately, the Twins ability to leverage those investments has been limited due to a nearly unprecedented string of year-long injuries to high ceiling prospects. The Twins have had four players in the last few years who were considered elite prospects, an impressive number for any organization. But so far only Garza had managed to stay relatively healthy (knock, knock).
Joe Mauer’s knee cost him almost all of 2004. Jason Kubel’s knee cost him almost all of 2005 and ultimately most of 2006. Francisco Liriano’s elbow cost him half of 2006 and all of 2007. And the concussion from a bean-ball, along with a series of offseason plagues, didn’t keep Justin Mornea from playing 2005, but likely cost him a year of development.
Of course, injuries are a part of the game, and it isn’t difficult to find other teams who had players that suffered year-long injuries. You might even be able to find another team with year-long injuries to four high-impact players. But you’ll need to look long and hard to find a team that had worse timing.
That’s because what REALLY hurts a team like the Twins is that they all happened within the first two years of each player’s major league careers. Injuries those two years minimize the return a team receives from their minor league investments. But they hurt just as much years after the player has healed, because it makes it unlikely that a club can sign their high-impact players to a long-term contract that is below market value.
There is no better time for a ballclub to approach a rising star about a long-term deal than after their second complete season as major leaguer. Up to that point, the player has made close to the major league minimum, probably in the neighborhoold of $300-400,000 per year. That’s some nice ching to be sure, but it’s likely not enough to make sure they’ll never need a real job. They still have one more year to play before their first year of arbitration, which is where a star player can suddenly make several million dollars.
If the club offers the player a multi-year guaranteed deal after two years, they’re offering a lifetime of security a year earlier than the player would otherwise receive it. And all they’re asking in return is for the ballplayer to be a little less filthy rich over the next few years. It makes a ton of sense for both the ballplayer and the club to agree to that kind of a deal.
But because of early injuries, the Twins have yet to agree to that kind of deal with any of their young impact players. Everyone talked about locking up Maure and Morneau this year, but the time to negotiate with them was last offseason, before they reached arbitration. Unfrotunately, Morneau had underperformed through an injury-plagued year, and Mauer’s knee was still a question mark. Instead, the Twins didn’t get to talk about long-term deals until each one of them was already guaranteed a lifetime of security with their $4 million arbitration settlements.
This spring, Kubel is in the same boat as Mauer and Morneau were last year. You can bet that two years ago the Twins planned on approaching him with a long-term deal this offseason. They can’t, because they don’t know if his knees will remain healthy, or whether he’ll regain his stroke. If he does this year, he’ll get his $3 million whether or not he signs a long-term deal with the Twins. And we’ll be wondering why he and the Twins can’t get a long-term deal done.
And next offseason? Well, Liriano will be finishing his second year – except that he won’t have pitched in the majors for a year-and-a-half. So the Twins won’t be able to comfortably offer him a long-term deal, and will again see if their highly prized prospect breaks out just before his first big pay day. And you wonder why they weren’t anxious to have Liriano go under the knife?
When a star player’s lack of production is taken into account, the cost of an injury for every team is easily in the millions of dollars. That’s already devastating to most low revenue franchises. But the timing of these injuries is even worse, because it’s likely costing the Twins another $1-2 million worth of salary per year than if they could have negotiated a long-term deal at the best possible time. And it’s happened four times.
Is there any doubt the fifth is coming? So when you see pictures of Terry Ryan standing behind Garza in the Twins dugout, delivering a neck massage, don’t be so sure it’s a Photoshop job. That neck rub could be as valuable an investment as the entirety of the Twins minor league payroll.
Twins Takes
All the talk about a backup shortstop made me wonder who exactly played shortstop in Rochester after Jason Bartlett was called up last year. It looks like it was Gil Velasquez, who is at spring training and has had seven at-bats. He hits about as well as you would imagine for a 27-year-old AAA shortstop who you had never heard of before.
Which means that if Machado continues to blow his best chance at a major league job and Gardenhire is serious about not letting Nick Punto back up at shorstop and Terry Ryan is serious about not wanting Alexi Casilla to sit on a bench, we're going to see a deal for a veteran middle infielder this spring. And I can't help wonder if that's what Gardenhire really wanted all along.
The Return of the Screaming Head
I missed you, screaming head. Welcome back.
More to Check Out
If you're back here because of an RSS feed, make sure and check out MNGameDay.com which will be working closely with this site. I think you'll really like it if you're a Twins fan.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
When Cheaters Prosper
By John Sharkey
It’s not cheating if you don’t get caught. But what happens if you do get snared? Even then, a surprisingly high amount of the time, the consequences for getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar are mild. Shawne Merriman, the star linebacker for the San Diego Chargers, recently failed a steroid test and received a four-game suspension. This seems like it should be a pretty big deal: one of the best defensive players in the NFL gets busted for cheating.
The backlash, however, was mysteriously mild. The first time I learned about the story, it was on SportsCenter where the analysts were discussing what Merriman’s absence would do to the Chargers’ linebacking depth, as if Merriman had sprained a knee or something. Merriman quickly appealed the suspension and was available to play in the following game. Watching that contest, I saw Merriman make a typically great play, followed by the announcers joking that the Chiefs were probably wishing that Merriman hadn’t appealed: the whole thing was literally a laughing matter.
Remember Rafael Palmeiro? Once upon a time, he was one of the faces of baseball. Then he failed a steroids test and took a fifty-game suspension. That’s slightly longer, proportionally to the length of their seasons, than what Merriman got. But no one was laughing then. Palmeiro was ripped to shreds and black-balled out of baseball. So why the disconnect between his case and Merriman’s?
This pair of suspensions is far from the only example of the double standard that exists between baseball and football when it comes to cheating. The indictment of a doctor under suspicion of distributing steroids revealed that multiple members of the Carolina Panthers more than likely received a shipment of steroids shortly before they played the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. Of course, none of the players in question ever failed a drug test, and the story never really gained much traction.
Barry Bonds never failed a drug test either. However, we have a lot of pretty good evidence to suggest that he has indeed taken steroids, and he is (probably rightfully) vilified as a cheater. After all, he’s chasing the numbers of ghosts, not playing in the biggest sporting event in the country.
The World Series drama fizzled out early this year, as a sloppily-played set ended in a five-game St. Louis victory. However, for about two days (which, if my memory serves, were right around the time the Merriman story broke), the biggest storyline of baseball’s championship was some gunk smeared on Kenny Rogers’s hand. A foreign substance on the pitcher’s person is grounds for an automatic ejection and suspension, and the same mysterious substance was seen on Rogers’s hand in his first two playoff starts. This gunk caused some confusing reactions. It is pretty clear that Rogers was cheating, but Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa didn’t press the issue and Rogers continued to pitch. Then later, LaRussa said that he didn’t believe that the stuff on Rogers’s hand was simply a clump of dirt, as the pitcher claimed. He obviously thought that Rogers was cheating, and didn’t do anything about it.
What’s more, much of the public reaction was mild as well, with a lot of the discussion focusing on the old spit-ballers and how wily they were. The gunk is a far more visible example of cheating than are sordid tales of back-room needles, with the cheating taking place in plain sight during the biggest game of the year. Yet another double-standard, this time specific to baseball.
There are many forms of cheating, but we react to them in different ways. Anyone that has ever jaywalked or double parked knows why. We all have a tendency to simply ignore the rules that are inconvenient or inconsequential to us. But this is a tendency we must fight. It’s possible that “right” and “wrong” might exist on a sliding scale, but there is no such thing as “just a little bit illegal” or “mild cheating.” And act is either illegal or it isn’t, and if we act otherwise we might as well throw out the rule books. We can change bad rules and laws, but we cannot ignore them. In the end, syringe or sludge, it’s all dirty.
It’s not cheating if you don’t get caught. But what happens if you do get snared? Even then, a surprisingly high amount of the time, the consequences for getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar are mild. Shawne Merriman, the star linebacker for the San Diego Chargers, recently failed a steroid test and received a four-game suspension. This seems like it should be a pretty big deal: one of the best defensive players in the NFL gets busted for cheating.
The backlash, however, was mysteriously mild. The first time I learned about the story, it was on SportsCenter where the analysts were discussing what Merriman’s absence would do to the Chargers’ linebacking depth, as if Merriman had sprained a knee or something. Merriman quickly appealed the suspension and was available to play in the following game. Watching that contest, I saw Merriman make a typically great play, followed by the announcers joking that the Chiefs were probably wishing that Merriman hadn’t appealed: the whole thing was literally a laughing matter.
Remember Rafael Palmeiro? Once upon a time, he was one of the faces of baseball. Then he failed a steroids test and took a fifty-game suspension. That’s slightly longer, proportionally to the length of their seasons, than what Merriman got. But no one was laughing then. Palmeiro was ripped to shreds and black-balled out of baseball. So why the disconnect between his case and Merriman’s?
This pair of suspensions is far from the only example of the double standard that exists between baseball and football when it comes to cheating. The indictment of a doctor under suspicion of distributing steroids revealed that multiple members of the Carolina Panthers more than likely received a shipment of steroids shortly before they played the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. Of course, none of the players in question ever failed a drug test, and the story never really gained much traction.
Barry Bonds never failed a drug test either. However, we have a lot of pretty good evidence to suggest that he has indeed taken steroids, and he is (probably rightfully) vilified as a cheater. After all, he’s chasing the numbers of ghosts, not playing in the biggest sporting event in the country.
The World Series drama fizzled out early this year, as a sloppily-played set ended in a five-game St. Louis victory. However, for about two days (which, if my memory serves, were right around the time the Merriman story broke), the biggest storyline of baseball’s championship was some gunk smeared on Kenny Rogers’s hand. A foreign substance on the pitcher’s person is grounds for an automatic ejection and suspension, and the same mysterious substance was seen on Rogers’s hand in his first two playoff starts. This gunk caused some confusing reactions. It is pretty clear that Rogers was cheating, but Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa didn’t press the issue and Rogers continued to pitch. Then later, LaRussa said that he didn’t believe that the stuff on Rogers’s hand was simply a clump of dirt, as the pitcher claimed. He obviously thought that Rogers was cheating, and didn’t do anything about it.
What’s more, much of the public reaction was mild as well, with a lot of the discussion focusing on the old spit-ballers and how wily they were. The gunk is a far more visible example of cheating than are sordid tales of back-room needles, with the cheating taking place in plain sight during the biggest game of the year. Yet another double-standard, this time specific to baseball.
There are many forms of cheating, but we react to them in different ways. Anyone that has ever jaywalked or double parked knows why. We all have a tendency to simply ignore the rules that are inconvenient or inconsequential to us. But this is a tendency we must fight. It’s possible that “right” and “wrong” might exist on a sliding scale, but there is no such thing as “just a little bit illegal” or “mild cheating.” And act is either illegal or it isn’t, and if we act otherwise we might as well throw out the rule books. We can change bad rules and laws, but we cannot ignore them. In the end, syringe or sludge, it’s all dirty.
Friday, October 20, 2006
Why Play Off, When You Can Play On?
Powered By John Sharkey
I never feel any pressure when I am taking a Spanish test. Sure, maybe Spanish is not my best subject. Maybe I am only able to write two coherent pages. But during any given test, I am as pressure-free as a flat tire. After all, even if things go badly that afternoon, there will still be one-hundred and sixty-one other tests to make up for it.
Playoffs are maddening things. You could not invent a more inefficient way to choose a champion (aside from, perhaps, a heated match of rock-paper-scissors). This may be especially true of baseball, but it is true for anything. Professional poker players often readily admit that on any one hand they can be beaten by a novice. If you shortened a game of “H-O-R-S-E” to a game of “H,” any mediocre rec-league warrior could take down Robert Horry with startling regularity. Even playing out the entire word, Big Shot Bob would be fully capable of losing, and losing often.
This warping of reality is the reason statisticians and analysts speak of “sample size.” When the size of the sample is small enough, strange things begin to happen. Suddenly, the predictive power of numbers evaporates. Maybe a die has a one-in-six chance of coming up “four.” But on any one roll, seeing four dots on the top of the die would not surprise everyone. If you roll a hundred fours in a row, then you’d arouse suspicion (see: loaded dice), but for that one isolated flick of the wrist, all bets are off. (Except when you are hanging out with Charles Barkley. He’d give you 10-1 on $15,000.) So the professional poker player doesn’t base anything on one single hand; instead, he plays a conservative game, confident that over the span of enough hands, the true talent will win out.
But even as totally illogical as playoffs are, everyone uses them, so there must be value in them somewhere. Obviously, playoffs are played because they suck people in, but the reason they do so is slightly less clear. Some would argue that the playoff format caters to our underdog-loving sensibilities, and there is some truth to that. We gravitate toward the unlikely, and part of the playoff allure is the fact that Rocky just might take down Apollo. We love that kind of story. Hollywood does not churn out countless movies about pre-season favorites that fulfill expectations, or about handsome, witty, intelligent guys who get the girls. Surely the Rocky Complex explains part of the appeal of playoffs, but it does not tell the whole story.
Life lacks a safety net. While a long regular season may be the best way to determine the superior team, it is also wholly unrealistic. In life, we do not get a couple hundred chances at each task to make sure our natural abilities shine through. That would be the fairest way to do things, but life is not fair. The accountant who makes one mistake—forgets to carry the three just once—does not get to keep trying in order to demonstrate his mathematical prowess. Instead, he gets investigated by the SEC.
One mistake can define a person, no matter how good he usually is. If my Spanish test comes back with a giant “F” scrawled on the top, I will be back in line to re-register next semester. So goes real life, and so go the playoffs. We find riveting drama in the fact that those athletes on the field are facing the same situation that we face every day. “Win or go home” is not just a marketing ploy, it is real. Everyone understands what it is like to face that kind of pressure, and we love watching others deal with it.
Ironically, the best example of this drama is found in a sport that does not use a playoff at all. This distinction is more semantic than anything else, however. College football’s post-season system by be arcane and opaque, but it creates the greatest twelve-round playoff in all of sport. Every single game of the college football season carries with it the pressure of a Game Seven, because one loss is often enough to eliminate a team from national championship contention. And pity the team that loses twice—you can punch their ticket to the Sun Bowl right there. By completely removing the safety net from its regular season, college football creates the most life-like drama possible: the next game is always the most important one, just as each new day is always the most important one of our lives.
The Tigers and Cardinals will play Game One of the World Series today. It is very possible that each team was the worst of their respective league’s playoff quartet. History, however, does not care. Whatever the odds were going in, the Tigers and Cardinals won the games on the field. Calling it “luck,” as some people are wont to do, cheapens their victories, but skill is not exactly the determining factor either. In that thin slice of baseball, every team is equal. Success or failure is a fifty-fifty proposition. A wise man once said that “accidental brilliance is still brilliance,” and that captures the idea of the playoffs perfectly. The playoffs are that feeling we get when we know that there will not be a second try, and whatever happens right now will be defining.
I never feel any pressure when I am taking a Spanish test. Sure, maybe Spanish is not my best subject. Maybe I am only able to write two coherent pages. But during any given test, I am as pressure-free as a flat tire. After all, even if things go badly that afternoon, there will still be one-hundred and sixty-one other tests to make up for it.
Playoffs are maddening things. You could not invent a more inefficient way to choose a champion (aside from, perhaps, a heated match of rock-paper-scissors). This may be especially true of baseball, but it is true for anything. Professional poker players often readily admit that on any one hand they can be beaten by a novice. If you shortened a game of “H-O-R-S-E” to a game of “H,” any mediocre rec-league warrior could take down Robert Horry with startling regularity. Even playing out the entire word, Big Shot Bob would be fully capable of losing, and losing often.
This warping of reality is the reason statisticians and analysts speak of “sample size.” When the size of the sample is small enough, strange things begin to happen. Suddenly, the predictive power of numbers evaporates. Maybe a die has a one-in-six chance of coming up “four.” But on any one roll, seeing four dots on the top of the die would not surprise everyone. If you roll a hundred fours in a row, then you’d arouse suspicion (see: loaded dice), but for that one isolated flick of the wrist, all bets are off. (Except when you are hanging out with Charles Barkley. He’d give you 10-1 on $15,000.) So the professional poker player doesn’t base anything on one single hand; instead, he plays a conservative game, confident that over the span of enough hands, the true talent will win out.
But even as totally illogical as playoffs are, everyone uses them, so there must be value in them somewhere. Obviously, playoffs are played because they suck people in, but the reason they do so is slightly less clear. Some would argue that the playoff format caters to our underdog-loving sensibilities, and there is some truth to that. We gravitate toward the unlikely, and part of the playoff allure is the fact that Rocky just might take down Apollo. We love that kind of story. Hollywood does not churn out countless movies about pre-season favorites that fulfill expectations, or about handsome, witty, intelligent guys who get the girls. Surely the Rocky Complex explains part of the appeal of playoffs, but it does not tell the whole story.
Life lacks a safety net. While a long regular season may be the best way to determine the superior team, it is also wholly unrealistic. In life, we do not get a couple hundred chances at each task to make sure our natural abilities shine through. That would be the fairest way to do things, but life is not fair. The accountant who makes one mistake—forgets to carry the three just once—does not get to keep trying in order to demonstrate his mathematical prowess. Instead, he gets investigated by the SEC.
One mistake can define a person, no matter how good he usually is. If my Spanish test comes back with a giant “F” scrawled on the top, I will be back in line to re-register next semester. So goes real life, and so go the playoffs. We find riveting drama in the fact that those athletes on the field are facing the same situation that we face every day. “Win or go home” is not just a marketing ploy, it is real. Everyone understands what it is like to face that kind of pressure, and we love watching others deal with it.
Ironically, the best example of this drama is found in a sport that does not use a playoff at all. This distinction is more semantic than anything else, however. College football’s post-season system by be arcane and opaque, but it creates the greatest twelve-round playoff in all of sport. Every single game of the college football season carries with it the pressure of a Game Seven, because one loss is often enough to eliminate a team from national championship contention. And pity the team that loses twice—you can punch their ticket to the Sun Bowl right there. By completely removing the safety net from its regular season, college football creates the most life-like drama possible: the next game is always the most important one, just as each new day is always the most important one of our lives.
The Tigers and Cardinals will play Game One of the World Series today. It is very possible that each team was the worst of their respective league’s playoff quartet. History, however, does not care. Whatever the odds were going in, the Tigers and Cardinals won the games on the field. Calling it “luck,” as some people are wont to do, cheapens their victories, but skill is not exactly the determining factor either. In that thin slice of baseball, every team is equal. Success or failure is a fifty-fifty proposition. A wise man once said that “accidental brilliance is still brilliance,” and that captures the idea of the playoffs perfectly. The playoffs are that feeling we get when we know that there will not be a second try, and whatever happens right now will be defining.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Fair
Powered by Twins Geek
Last week, immediately following a dominant performance by the Tigers, we watched Yankees Czar George Steinbrenner wrestle with whether he should fire their manager. We debated with him, recounting Joe Torre’s gaffes (and there were some), evaluating the team’s talent, and remembering his championships. In the end, the Yankees (and I think, most baseball fans) decided that Torre should stay
Yesterday, immediately following a dominant performance by the Tigers, we watched the Athletics Czar Billy Beane fire manager Ken Macha. This time, there was no debate, precious little coverage beforehand, and the reasons were personal. “Success of the year probably didn't have to do with it, but stuff that happened behind the scenes,” said coach Ron Washington.
For a week, we debated the definition of fairness in regard to Torre’s job. Yesterday Beane showed us exactly what fair really was, and it turns out it isn’t pretty. “Fair” is managing a team with $62 million of talent to the second round of the American League playoffs, and getting fired. Fair is managing $200 million of talent that was eliminated a round earlier and getting paid $7 million next year.
Does that sound inconsistent? It’s not. If you’re not seeing the pattern, let me give you a clearer definition: Fair is what your boss thinks of the job you’ve done.
This is a reality that most of us understand from personal experience, and though we might disagree with it in instances, most of us buy into the concept. Our boss evaluates us because they’re as close to our situation as just about anyone. They pay attention, because they have to pay attention. They define fair for us, because someone is defining fair for him or her.
It would be nice if the process was more objective, but it’s rare that most of us have truly objective criteria for our performance. Reaching that standard is usually impossible, and the results are often less than desirable. For instance, we’ll set up tests to objectively evaluate if a teacher is good or not. Then we debate the inevitable effects of those tests, many of which are contrary to a successful education.
Meanwhile, in any given school, ask around who the best and worst teachers are. 80% of all students, parents, administrators and even teachers will agree on the best and worst in each grade. Objective? No. Effective? You decide.
Subjective judgments also often reflect the culture of an organization, which is usually necessary for long-term success. That certainly played a role this week. The Yankees’ decision included balancing their culture of high expectations with the challenges of managing public perception and the media. For the Athletics, Macha suffered from a certain level of isolation from Beane, who is probably more involved with the team than most GMs. “Not to fault either side, but I felt a disconnect on a lot of levels," Beane said.
The dichotomy of the organizations, the process and the outcome highlights a simple truth; we don’t really know these managers. We can watch how they handle a game. We can infer management style from a subset of quotes or anecdotes. This probably adds up to about 15% of the job, if that.
Debating the other 85% can be a lot of fun, but the decision lies where it should. And that’s not a bad definition of fair.
Last week, immediately following a dominant performance by the Tigers, we watched Yankees Czar George Steinbrenner wrestle with whether he should fire their manager. We debated with him, recounting Joe Torre’s gaffes (and there were some), evaluating the team’s talent, and remembering his championships. In the end, the Yankees (and I think, most baseball fans) decided that Torre should stay
Yesterday, immediately following a dominant performance by the Tigers, we watched the Athletics Czar Billy Beane fire manager Ken Macha. This time, there was no debate, precious little coverage beforehand, and the reasons were personal. “Success of the year probably didn't have to do with it, but stuff that happened behind the scenes,” said coach Ron Washington.
For a week, we debated the definition of fairness in regard to Torre’s job. Yesterday Beane showed us exactly what fair really was, and it turns out it isn’t pretty. “Fair” is managing a team with $62 million of talent to the second round of the American League playoffs, and getting fired. Fair is managing $200 million of talent that was eliminated a round earlier and getting paid $7 million next year.
Does that sound inconsistent? It’s not. If you’re not seeing the pattern, let me give you a clearer definition: Fair is what your boss thinks of the job you’ve done.
This is a reality that most of us understand from personal experience, and though we might disagree with it in instances, most of us buy into the concept. Our boss evaluates us because they’re as close to our situation as just about anyone. They pay attention, because they have to pay attention. They define fair for us, because someone is defining fair for him or her.
It would be nice if the process was more objective, but it’s rare that most of us have truly objective criteria for our performance. Reaching that standard is usually impossible, and the results are often less than desirable. For instance, we’ll set up tests to objectively evaluate if a teacher is good or not. Then we debate the inevitable effects of those tests, many of which are contrary to a successful education.
Meanwhile, in any given school, ask around who the best and worst teachers are. 80% of all students, parents, administrators and even teachers will agree on the best and worst in each grade. Objective? No. Effective? You decide.
Subjective judgments also often reflect the culture of an organization, which is usually necessary for long-term success. That certainly played a role this week. The Yankees’ decision included balancing their culture of high expectations with the challenges of managing public perception and the media. For the Athletics, Macha suffered from a certain level of isolation from Beane, who is probably more involved with the team than most GMs. “Not to fault either side, but I felt a disconnect on a lot of levels," Beane said.
The dichotomy of the organizations, the process and the outcome highlights a simple truth; we don’t really know these managers. We can watch how they handle a game. We can infer management style from a subset of quotes or anecdotes. This probably adds up to about 15% of the job, if that.
Debating the other 85% can be a lot of fun, but the decision lies where it should. And that’s not a bad definition of fair.
Friday, October 13, 2006
Links of the Day for 10/13/06
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Twins-land may be in full-on Hot Stove Mode, but real baseball continues to be played. Last night, the Mets rode Tom Glavine and Carlos Beltran to a two-zero victory in game one of the NLCS (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=261012121). Without Pedro Martinez, the Mets are going to need a few more nights like that one out of Mr. Glavine: seven shutout, four hits and a couple of walks on just eighty-nine pitches. Beltran cranked a two-run shot in the sixth to provide the margin.
On the other side of the bracket, the Tigers are up two-nothing in the ALCS, but will be without a key part of their bullpen: rookie Joel Zumaya is out with wrist problems (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2006/news/story?id=2622785). It will be interesting to see who fills that role for Detroit while Zumaya is out; he’s been dominant all year.
Game three of that series will pit Kenny Rogers (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061011&content_id=1708776&vkey=ps2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb) against Rich Harden. Harden has the pure talent to pull this one out for Oakland, of course, but we’ll see if he can shake off the rust. More on Rogers in the Strib here (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/739740.html).
Back in Twins news, Francisco Liriano is going to rehab in Florida (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/731707.html), hoping to avoid surgery. That article also mentions a few other upcoming/already made movies, including the impending decision on Carlos Silva.
And, finally--it’s been a wee bit chilly in the Cities the last few days. That new outdoor stadium will hopefully be hosting plenty of baseball around this time of year, so it’s going to have to be kept warm somehow. The Strib has the scoop (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/739630.html).
Twins-land may be in full-on Hot Stove Mode, but real baseball continues to be played. Last night, the Mets rode Tom Glavine and Carlos Beltran to a two-zero victory in game one of the NLCS (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=261012121). Without Pedro Martinez, the Mets are going to need a few more nights like that one out of Mr. Glavine: seven shutout, four hits and a couple of walks on just eighty-nine pitches. Beltran cranked a two-run shot in the sixth to provide the margin.
On the other side of the bracket, the Tigers are up two-nothing in the ALCS, but will be without a key part of their bullpen: rookie Joel Zumaya is out with wrist problems (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2006/news/story?id=2622785). It will be interesting to see who fills that role for Detroit while Zumaya is out; he’s been dominant all year.
Game three of that series will pit Kenny Rogers (http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061011&content_id=1708776&vkey=ps2006news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb) against Rich Harden. Harden has the pure talent to pull this one out for Oakland, of course, but we’ll see if he can shake off the rust. More on Rogers in the Strib here (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/739740.html).
Back in Twins news, Francisco Liriano is going to rehab in Florida (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/731707.html), hoping to avoid surgery. That article also mentions a few other upcoming/already made movies, including the impending decision on Carlos Silva.
And, finally--it’s been a wee bit chilly in the Cities the last few days. That new outdoor stadium will hopefully be hosting plenty of baseball around this time of year, so it’s going to have to be kept warm somehow. The Strib has the scoop (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/739630.html).
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
The ALCS
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Time to reach into the mailbag...
Ok, I'm game. And I invite readers to give their best shot in the comments. Here's mine:
1. Frank Thomas will be walked intentionally at least three times.
2. There will be at least two shutouts in this series.
3. Rich Harden will get hurt.
4. Joel Zumaya will give up a run.
5. Detroit will come from behind in the late innings to win one game.
6. Esteban Loaiza will not get a win.
7. Detroit will not lose a home game. (And I don't just mean in this series.)
Twins Takes
I'm sure glad I decided to skip Terry Ryan's 2007 Cheat Sheet yesterday and publish Hunters Option(s) yesterday, because today it would have been obsolete. The decision to pick up Hunter's option was basically a foregone conclusion given the risk tolerance of this organization, and given the way Hunter finished the season, it's defensible, and maybe even necessary.
But it doesn't mean that the Twins shouldn't be hustling to find the right-handed #3 or #4 hitter they still need. And there shouldn't be too many untouchables in that search.
Don't worry. I haven't forgotten about Terry Ryan's 2007 Cheat Sheet. I should have it tomorrow.
Time to reach into the mailbag...
Hi Gameday,
There’s a game I like to play when the playoffs roll around, and I thought you & your readers might like to play, too (although I’m not leaving much lead time). I make 7 predictions for a series (trying not to be too obvious or too obscure), and need four of them to come true to claim victory. I welcome you to do the same. Here are mine for the ALCS:
1. Jim Leyland, managing in two pitchers’ ballparks, will choose to challenge Frank Thomas rather than pitch around him; no more than four walks for Thomas in the entire series (I'm assuming the series goes to six or seven
games).
2. The bullpens generally will shine, but there will be at least one loss hung on a closer due to a blown save or extra inning game (Todd Jones, Huston Street).
3. Placido Polanco will have to leave a game or miss a game due to injury.
4. Both 3b basemen – Chavez and Inge – will generally struggle at the plate (hitting less than .250 combined, one home run max), but one of them will get an important late inning hit.
5. Craig Monroe will be more productive at the plate than Magglio Ordonez.6. Kenny Rogers will have the worst start of all the Detroit starters (bonus credit for me if: Jimenez and Scutaro are his biggest problems).
7. Jason Kendall’s relative defensive weakness will be a factor; the Tigers, normally not very speedy, will have at least two players with two or more steals in the series.
-Scott
Ok, I'm game. And I invite readers to give their best shot in the comments. Here's mine:
1. Frank Thomas will be walked intentionally at least three times.
2. There will be at least two shutouts in this series.
3. Rich Harden will get hurt.
4. Joel Zumaya will give up a run.
5. Detroit will come from behind in the late innings to win one game.
6. Esteban Loaiza will not get a win.
7. Detroit will not lose a home game. (And I don't just mean in this series.)
Twins Takes
I'm sure glad I decided to skip Terry Ryan's 2007 Cheat Sheet yesterday and publish Hunters Option(s) yesterday, because today it would have been obsolete. The decision to pick up Hunter's option was basically a foregone conclusion given the risk tolerance of this organization, and given the way Hunter finished the season, it's defensible, and maybe even necessary.
But it doesn't mean that the Twins shouldn't be hustling to find the right-handed #3 or #4 hitter they still need. And there shouldn't be too many untouchables in that search.
Don't worry. I haven't forgotten about Terry Ryan's 2007 Cheat Sheet. I should have it tomorrow.
Monday, October 09, 2006
Hunter's Option(s)
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The Twins reportedly need to decide on whether to pick up Torii Hunter's contract option for 2007 before the end of the week. Hunter's option isn't the only decision that needs to be made, and it might not even be the biggest, considering the impact of guaranteeing Carlos Silva $4.3 million and a rotation spot next year. But Hunter's is the most expensive contract option the Twins will have ever picked up, so it requires its share of consideration.
The debate has raged for most of the year. Two months ago, you were hard-pressed to find someone who thought the Twins would pick up the option. A week ago, you were hard-pressed to find someone who didn't. Ironically, that swing corresponded with a decrease in Torii's defense, the facet of the game for which Torii is best known. The .314 BA and 9 home runs he sported in September might have had something to do with that.
It's assumed now that the Twins will pick up Hunter's option, but the reasons given aren't always clear. Some say it's because he's earned it. Some say it's because not doing so would send the wrong message to the fans, or the team. And some think they Twins should because they only recently figured out the concept of "sunk cost" and had previously assumed it was a $12 million option ($2.5 M is guaranteed regardless).
The problem is that none of these are the question that really should be asked. That question is - would the team be better with Hunter in center field at $9.5 million, or with someone else in center field with a different amount of money. That's a harder question to ask, of course, becuase it requires some research. At GameDay, we're all about research (though not so much about html formatting, which is why you're going to need to scroll down a bit), so let's take a look at the other options, and you can decide for yourself what the answer is.
The Twins reportedly need to decide on whether to pick up Torii Hunter's contract option for 2007 before the end of the week. Hunter's option isn't the only decision that needs to be made, and it might not even be the biggest, considering the impact of guaranteeing Carlos Silva $4.3 million and a rotation spot next year. But Hunter's is the most expensive contract option the Twins will have ever picked up, so it requires its share of consideration.
The debate has raged for most of the year. Two months ago, you were hard-pressed to find someone who thought the Twins would pick up the option. A week ago, you were hard-pressed to find someone who didn't. Ironically, that swing corresponded with a decrease in Torii's defense, the facet of the game for which Torii is best known. The .314 BA and 9 home runs he sported in September might have had something to do with that.
It's assumed now that the Twins will pick up Hunter's option, but the reasons given aren't always clear. Some say it's because he's earned it. Some say it's because not doing so would send the wrong message to the fans, or the team. And some think they Twins should because they only recently figured out the concept of "sunk cost" and had previously assumed it was a $12 million option ($2.5 M is guaranteed regardless).
The problem is that none of these are the question that really should be asked. That question is - would the team be better with Hunter in center field at $9.5 million, or with someone else in center field with a different amount of money. That's a harder question to ask, of course, becuase it requires some research. At GameDay, we're all about research (though not so much about html formatting, which is why you're going to need to scroll down a bit), so let's take a look at the other options, and you can decide for yourself what the answer is.
| PLAYER | TEAM | AGE | AB | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| David Dellucci | Phi | 32 | 264 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 0.292 | 0.369 | 0.530 | 0.899 |
| Gary Matthews Jr. | Tex | 32 | 620 | 19 | 79 | 10 | 0.313 | 0.371 | 0.495 | 0.866 |
| Mike Cameron | SD | 33 | 552 | 22 | 83 | 25 | 0.268 | 0.355 | 0.482 | 0.837 |
| Torii Hunter | Min | 31 | 557 | 31 | 98 | 12 | 0.278 | 0.336 | 0.490 | 0.826 |
| Kenny Lofton | LA | 39 | 469 | 3 | 41 | 32 | 0.301 | 0.360 | 0.403 | 0.763 |
| Dave Roberts | SD | 34 | 499 | 2 | 44 | 49 | 0.293 | 0.360 | 0.393 | 0.752 |
| Jay Payton | Oak | 33 | 557 | 10 | 59 | 8 | 0.296 | 0.325 | 0.418 | 0.743 |
| Juan Pierre | ChC | 29 | 699 | 3 | 40 | 58 | 0.292 | 0.330 | 0.388 | 0.717 |
| Steve Finley | SF | 41 | 426 | 6 | 40 | 7 | 0.246 | 0.320 | 0.394 | 0.714 |
| Gabe Kapler | Bos | 31 | 130 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0.254 | 0.340 | 0.354 | 0.694 |
You'll notice that these are not young men. You'll also notice that above Torii, there aren't a lot of sure things.
David Dellucci is listed as a center fielder, but played a corner spot most of this year, and was traded away from the Rangers because he wasn't a true center fielder. He also has never hit left-handers, and really only played as a utility outfieder in Philly, though he had a very good 2005 in Texas. I suspect his defense isn't deemed solid enough for the Twins to be interested, but he would certainly cost less than Hunter - he made just $950,000 last year.
The most interesting free agent test will be that of Gary Matthews Jr. It's unusual for a breakthrough year to happen to a 31-year-old, but Matthews was the complete package, offenseivly and defensively. This will be his last, best chance at a payday, but he's also probably cheaper than Hunter. I wouldn't be shocked if he signs for $15M over 3 years. If he's legit, that's going to be a great buy for some team.
I'm including Mike Cameron on the list, but he likely won't be available, because the Padres have a $7M option ($0.5 M buyout). Cameron may be the most comparable player on this list for Hunter, and another playoff team is debating whether to pick up his option, which is $3M less. However, it sound like they are planning on picking up that option, so the market is more or less set.
You can take a look at the options below Hunter yourself. Several qualify as "speedsters", which would require some fancy stepping as the the Twins would need to move Castillo. The only one likely to cost more than $5M per year would be Juan Pierre.
There are more options here than I thought, and it shows that if the Twins decide not to pick up Hunter's option, it doesn't necessarily mean they're going to turn to Lew Ford or Jason Tyner or Denard Span. But they would need to risk losing Hunter before the free agent season starts, and then they're at the mercy of the market. Ultimately, their risk aversion likely means they'll still pick up the option.
Friday, October 06, 2006
Twins Geek's 2007 Cheat Sheet
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OK, all the evidence is in. You've seen them through six months, you've seen them through the playoffs (such as is was). So, what are you gonna do?
Is it crass to start talking about next year this early? Well, yeah, I think so. But in case you haven't noticed, here's the recipe for the end of season articles in the dailies:
Day after clinching loss - recap of clinching loss
Two Days after clinching game - recap of year and what to expect in the offseason
That's about it. A hell of a lot of perceptions are set by that article two days after the season ends, like two years ago when every sportswriter decided that Cristian Guzman would be returning to the Twins. Not that I've been much better. I didn't think there was any way the Twins didn't get a deal done with Corey Koskie, let alone hang onto Jacque Jones.
(There's a lesson there, by the way. Timing in the offseason is important. The Twins didn't necessarily want to keep Jones over Koskie - they lost out on Koskie and decided to put that extra money towards Jones. It's damn important to understand that some of these decisions need to be made very early, even before the free agent starts, let alone heats up.)
Here's the mission as first published a couple of weeks ago: create a competitive team for 2007 while keeping the total payroll under $67 million (a pretty realistic guess as to next year’s total). I'd encourage you to try it yourself from the link above before continuing.
But I'm gonna get started below. I'll start with players who will likely be back, including listing their approximate salaries, along with some reasoning, in case you want to go in a different direction.
Below that, we’ll list the positions where there will be more debate, and list some of the players (and how much they cost) for each of them. You can build your team, and compare it to how Ryan does this offseason – just make sure it comes in under $67 million. (Or figure out how you’re going to get Carl to part with more.) Today I'll list my choices. Tomorrow will be my best guess on what Terry Ryan will do.
The Core
Lineup
If you've already done the earlier version, you'll notice I pulled Castillo and Punto from this list. I want more offense and less piranhas. I think they'll be back below, but I'm keeping the option open for now. On the core lineup, we’ve spent $12.9 million.
Starting Pitching
We’ll assume Brad Radke retires (or at least doesn't pitch next year) and that Liriano starts the year with the Twins. They'll cover for the injury risk by keeping one of our other youngsters around (Garza, Baker, Durbin, Slowey) in Rochester as a 6th starter. That leaves two spots open, and our total now is at $25.7 million.
Bench
Redmond’s under contract (though terms haven’t been released) and we’ll assume Rodriguez comes back as a middle infielder. That leaves at least two spots open that can be filled with veterans or farm players, and just a small bump to $27.35 million.
Bullpen
Now that Reyes is in the fold, the only assumption we have to make is that the Twins will offer Rincon arbitration. We’ll also assume six bullpen spots for now, but if you’re attached to Eyre and Guerrier, you can bring one back as the 25th man. Our final tally is $36.3 million….
Summary
We’re 60% of the way there! Fifteen of the 25 roster spots are spoken for, and $36.3 million is spent. That leaves $30.7 million to fill eight spots. Let’s see how you want to spend it…..
The Options
Sigh. There's $3M to spare there, which is just painful, because if you can find another $4M, a premier right-handed hitter could find his way here. There are plenty of options (and I'm sure you'll list the best of them in the comments) but I can tell you my favorite - Carl opening his wallet.
We'll be back tomorrow with our best guess on how Terry Ryan is going to fill out this sheet. We'll see you then.
OK, all the evidence is in. You've seen them through six months, you've seen them through the playoffs (such as is was). So, what are you gonna do?
Is it crass to start talking about next year this early? Well, yeah, I think so. But in case you haven't noticed, here's the recipe for the end of season articles in the dailies:
Day after clinching loss - recap of clinching loss
Two Days after clinching game - recap of year and what to expect in the offseason
That's about it. A hell of a lot of perceptions are set by that article two days after the season ends, like two years ago when every sportswriter decided that Cristian Guzman would be returning to the Twins. Not that I've been much better. I didn't think there was any way the Twins didn't get a deal done with Corey Koskie, let alone hang onto Jacque Jones.
(There's a lesson there, by the way. Timing in the offseason is important. The Twins didn't necessarily want to keep Jones over Koskie - they lost out on Koskie and decided to put that extra money towards Jones. It's damn important to understand that some of these decisions need to be made very early, even before the free agent starts, let alone heats up.)
Here's the mission as first published a couple of weeks ago: create a competitive team for 2007 while keeping the total payroll under $67 million (a pretty realistic guess as to next year’s total). I'd encourage you to try it yourself from the link above before continuing.
But I'm gonna get started below. I'll start with players who will likely be back, including listing their approximate salaries, along with some reasoning, in case you want to go in a different direction.
Below that, we’ll list the positions where there will be more debate, and list some of the players (and how much they cost) for each of them. You can build your team, and compare it to how Ryan does this offseason – just make sure it comes in under $67 million. (Or figure out how you’re going to get Carl to part with more.) Today I'll list my choices. Tomorrow will be my best guess on what Terry Ryan will do.
The Core
Lineup
Role | Player | $M |
C | Joe Mauer | $ 3.50 |
1B | Justin Morneau | $ 2.50 |
SS | Jason Bartlett | $ 0.40 |
RF | Michael Cuddyer | $ 4.00 |
Other | Torii Hunter's Buyout | $ 2.50 |
If you've already done the earlier version, you'll notice I pulled Castillo and Punto from this list. I want more offense and less piranhas. I think they'll be back below, but I'm keeping the option open for now. On the core lineup, we’ve spent $12.9 million.
Starting Pitching
Starter 1 | Johan Santana | $ 12.00 |
Starter 2 | Francisco Liriano | $ 0.40 |
Starter 3 | Boof Bonser | $ 0.40 |
We’ll assume Brad Radke retires (or at least doesn't pitch next year) and that Liriano starts the year with the Twins. They'll cover for the injury risk by keeping one of our other youngsters around (Garza, Baker, Durbin, Slowey) in Rochester as a 6th starter. That leaves two spots open, and our total now is at $25.7 million.
Bench
BKUP MI | Luis Rodriguez | $ 0.40 |
BKUP C | Mike Redmond | $ 1.25 |
Redmond’s under contract (though terms haven’t been released) and we’ll assume Rodriguez comes back as a middle infielder. That leaves at least two spots open that can be filled with veterans or farm players, and just a small bump to $27.35 million.
Bullpen
Closer | Joe Nathan | $ 5.25 |
RH Setup | Juan Rincon | $ 1.50 |
LH Setup | Dennys Reyes | $ 1.00 |
MR | Jesse Crain | $ 0.40 |
MR | Pat Neshek | $ 0.40 |
Long MR | Willie Eyre or Matt Guerrier | $ 0.40 |
Now that Reyes is in the fold, the only assumption we have to make is that the Twins will offer Rincon arbitration. We’ll also assume six bullpen spots for now, but if you’re attached to Eyre and Guerrier, you can bring one back as the 25th man. Our final tally is $36.3 million….
Summary
We’re 60% of the way there! Fifteen of the 25 roster spots are spoken for, and $36.3 million is spent. That leaves $30.7 million to fill eight spots. Let’s see how you want to spend it…..
The Options
| Position | Name | $ | Comments |
| CF |  Hunter | 9.5 | The big question is answered. One more year to prove his foot can stay healthy on this surface, without all the "I want to paly 162 games" nonsense. A month ago, I might have chosen a platoon of Tyner and Ford, but the risk on not being able to sign a free agent with that money is big, and the Hunter decision must be made first. Plus, I want fewer piranhas, not more. |
| 3B | Punto | 2.5 | I know many want a bigger bat at third base, but there aren't any on the free agent market. Seriously, here's the list. The only impact bats at that position are Aramis Ramirez, who reportedly has a deal in place with the Cubs, and Aubrey Huff, who is left-handed. I'd support the Twins attempting a trade, but that hasn't worked out too well recently, especially for a big right-handed bat. I also believe that Punto's defense is better at third than second - he seems to be more a reaction guy than a range guy - so I'm hesitant to move him. |
| 2B | Castillo | 5.75 | Here's the toughest decision on this list. Alfonso Soriano lacks the plate discipline you woule like to see from a middle of the order hitter, but he's right-handed, has power and speed, and would be a great fit between Mauer and Morneau. He's going to cost $13 million (at least), but that's affordable if Castillo is signed, and he'll be a nice replacement to Torii next year. Finally, there's no risk here, because Ryan can either keep Castillo or trade him based on whether he "wins" Soriano. But I just can't find that extra $7 million, and believe me, I've tried. If I have $7.25M left over when I'm done with the rest of this list, I'll consider it. |
| LF | Kubel | .4 | Getting Kubel's bat into this lineup is a priority for me, I'll admit. If his knees can't handle left field in the dome, we'll swap him back and forth with... |
| DH | Rondell White | 3 | Once he regained his health, he was great, and well worth the money. Timing also is a factor. The Twins will need to decide on this option before they know if the can get someone like Frank Thomas. |
| 4th starter | Woody Williams | 4 | I'll admit it, I'd like a veteran to provide playoff experience, eat innings, and mentor the younger guys. But I also don't want to block the talent coming through the pipeline, and I don't see that player on the free agent list. Williams is close. I'd gamble on Eaton. I won't on Carlos Silva, or at least not at that money. |
| 5th starter | Garza | .4 | There's too much talent in the minors to not leave a spot for it to prove itself. I'll got with Garza for now, but Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Durbin and others could also be projected here. |
| backup IF | ??? | .5 | I don't know who it will be, but it'll be someone cheap. |
| 4th OF | Tyner | 1 | There needs to be a decent backup for Hunter, and a platoon of Tyner and Ford might be the answer. Tyner is locked up first, because the Twins will need to make a decision on him first. |
| 25th spot | Ford |
| see directly above |
| TOTAL | | $27.8 |
Sigh. There's $3M to spare there, which is just painful, because if you can find another $4M, a premier right-handed hitter could find his way here. There are plenty of options (and I'm sure you'll list the best of them in the comments) but I can tell you my favorite - Carl opening his wallet.
We'll be back tomorrow with our best guess on how Terry Ryan is going to fill out this sheet. We'll see you then.
2006 Postmortem
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It would be nice to publish something about how great the year has been. This team deserves that. It may have been one of the most rewarding regular seasons any Twins team - and maybe any Minnesota team - has ever had. On the other hand, there are reasons postmortems are done immediately, and that's the way this is going to go....
Geez, it's hard to judge a team by their postseason
There's almost no truly analytical approach one can use. Most will claim the regular season is a more accurate view, and it's tough to argue with that. On the other hand, nobdoy dreams about just winning 95 games. The playoffs count. And you could make a fair argument that the last three games were worth the same as the previous 162. I mean, would we really have celebrated a pennant race and division championship if we would have know this week was going to go this way? Hell no.
But I'm sensitive to the overreacation that can result from watching three games against one team - and a very good team at that. Evidence is in short supply, so it becomes a vote by perception. That has a bad rap, but isn't necessarily a bad thing. As Malcolm Gladwell points out in Blink, instantaneous perceptions have likely been cultivated by millions of years of evolution to be invaluable. We should trust them, and we usually do. So let's go with some perceptions:
The team looked unprepared for the bright lights
That's not an easy thing to admit, frankly, but you'll have trouble finding anyone who disagrees with it. I've spend umpteen words pointing out how solid Jason Bartlett's defense has been, but he was terrible. For two years I've claimed that Jesse Crain should have been brought in for Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS, and today I couldn't feel more wrong about that. Joe Mauer had a number of weak swings, which I had previously chalked up to being worn down, but he had quite a bit of rest the last week plus. If you're looking for an LVP offensivly, he's at the top of the list.
The bottom line is that the Twins failed to make a a lot of plays, both offensively and defensively.
The Piranhas were overrated
And they likely have been since they got that nickname. Nick Punto and Bartlett didn't hit worth a damn in September, and probably should swap places depending on the pitcher. Jason Tyner lost his job, and I don't know I trust him to ever be more than a platoon center fielder on a winning team.
That leaves Luis Castillo. He was passable in Sept, but not great, and shaky in the playoffs. He showed some playoff savvy the first game, but really screwed up in not advancing a runner to third with no outs. he was terrible in Game 2. He wasn't particularly good in Game 3. I still don't know what to make of him. For most of the season I thought he felt like he was a little too cool to play aggressively. Later, I wrote it off to injury. Either way, I'm not sure I can trust him to be much above average next year.
It's a nice nickname, but I think we need less of them.
Johan Santana may need to focus more on winning and less on strikeouts
It might be time for Santana to consider how much he shows certain pitches early in the game, particularly that devastating changeup. It seems that every time the A's hit a ball hard, it was a changeup, like they were sitting on it, especially when they had two strikes. It's a great strikeout pitch, but I'd love to see his strikeout rate early in a game versus later. (Actually, I can check that. Wait a minute. Hmm, it looks like he strikes out 29% of batters in innings 1-9, 26% in innings 4-6 and 24% after six innings). OK, so the statistics don't support me. I still think that he needs to show less to good batters in early innings.
The bullpen might just need a hierarchy
God forbid I suggest that pigeon-holing a guy into a role might enhance their performance as the stakes are raised, but the bullpen looked as crummy as it's looked since the 2002 playoffs when they were clearly overworked. Coming into this series, this bullpen looked as deep as any the Twins had ever had, but they were crummy under the bright lights. Maybe, just maybe, the comfort level of having roles defined such as "I pitch the eighth inning" means something to these guys. Maybe more than "if I get this guy out, I might get to pitch to the next guy, but if I don't, the left-hander is coming in". Or maybe they were just overworked in the regular season. I don't know, but it's worth noting.
They were cold
I'll be honest - I don't know what this means, or if it makes any difference. But Sunday's excitement glossed over that this team absolutely backed into the division championship. IN fact, they weren't really challenged for the wild card after the middle of September when the White Sox were beat up by - oh, yeah, it was the Athletics. That explosion we saw on Sunday might have been more about relief than excitement. The players might have understood that they weren't quite that good. Or at least they didn't prove to themselves that they really were as good as they were.
So, anyway, after watching a sweep and having a couple of beers, that's one geek's take. Do with it what you will. Tomorrow (or maybe even later today) we'll be back with the 2007 GM Cheat Sheet filled out Twins Geek style - and then my best guess on how Terry Ryan will do it.
It would be nice to publish something about how great the year has been. This team deserves that. It may have been one of the most rewarding regular seasons any Twins team - and maybe any Minnesota team - has ever had. On the other hand, there are reasons postmortems are done immediately, and that's the way this is going to go....
Geez, it's hard to judge a team by their postseason
There's almost no truly analytical approach one can use. Most will claim the regular season is a more accurate view, and it's tough to argue with that. On the other hand, nobdoy dreams about just winning 95 games. The playoffs count. And you could make a fair argument that the last three games were worth the same as the previous 162. I mean, would we really have celebrated a pennant race and division championship if we would have know this week was going to go this way? Hell no.
But I'm sensitive to the overreacation that can result from watching three games against one team - and a very good team at that. Evidence is in short supply, so it becomes a vote by perception. That has a bad rap, but isn't necessarily a bad thing. As Malcolm Gladwell points out in Blink, instantaneous perceptions have likely been cultivated by millions of years of evolution to be invaluable. We should trust them, and we usually do. So let's go with some perceptions:
The team looked unprepared for the bright lights
That's not an easy thing to admit, frankly, but you'll have trouble finding anyone who disagrees with it. I've spend umpteen words pointing out how solid Jason Bartlett's defense has been, but he was terrible. For two years I've claimed that Jesse Crain should have been brought in for Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS, and today I couldn't feel more wrong about that. Joe Mauer had a number of weak swings, which I had previously chalked up to being worn down, but he had quite a bit of rest the last week plus. If you're looking for an LVP offensivly, he's at the top of the list.
The bottom line is that the Twins failed to make a a lot of plays, both offensively and defensively.
The Piranhas were overrated
And they likely have been since they got that nickname. Nick Punto and Bartlett didn't hit worth a damn in September, and probably should swap places depending on the pitcher. Jason Tyner lost his job, and I don't know I trust him to ever be more than a platoon center fielder on a winning team.
That leaves Luis Castillo. He was passable in Sept, but not great, and shaky in the playoffs. He showed some playoff savvy the first game, but really screwed up in not advancing a runner to third with no outs. he was terrible in Game 2. He wasn't particularly good in Game 3. I still don't know what to make of him. For most of the season I thought he felt like he was a little too cool to play aggressively. Later, I wrote it off to injury. Either way, I'm not sure I can trust him to be much above average next year.
It's a nice nickname, but I think we need less of them.
Johan Santana may need to focus more on winning and less on strikeouts
It might be time for Santana to consider how much he shows certain pitches early in the game, particularly that devastating changeup. It seems that every time the A's hit a ball hard, it was a changeup, like they were sitting on it, especially when they had two strikes. It's a great strikeout pitch, but I'd love to see his strikeout rate early in a game versus later. (Actually, I can check that. Wait a minute. Hmm, it looks like he strikes out 29% of batters in innings 1-9, 26% in innings 4-6 and 24% after six innings). OK, so the statistics don't support me. I still think that he needs to show less to good batters in early innings.
The bullpen might just need a hierarchy
God forbid I suggest that pigeon-holing a guy into a role might enhance their performance as the stakes are raised, but the bullpen looked as crummy as it's looked since the 2002 playoffs when they were clearly overworked. Coming into this series, this bullpen looked as deep as any the Twins had ever had, but they were crummy under the bright lights. Maybe, just maybe, the comfort level of having roles defined such as "I pitch the eighth inning" means something to these guys. Maybe more than "if I get this guy out, I might get to pitch to the next guy, but if I don't, the left-hander is coming in". Or maybe they were just overworked in the regular season. I don't know, but it's worth noting.
They were cold
I'll be honest - I don't know what this means, or if it makes any difference. But Sunday's excitement glossed over that this team absolutely backed into the division championship. IN fact, they weren't really challenged for the wild card after the middle of September when the White Sox were beat up by - oh, yeah, it was the Athletics. That explosion we saw on Sunday might have been more about relief than excitement. The players might have understood that they weren't quite that good. Or at least they didn't prove to themselves that they really were as good as they were.
So, anyway, after watching a sweep and having a couple of beers, that's one geek's take. Do with it what you will. Tomorrow (or maybe even later today) we'll be back with the 2007 GM Cheat Sheet filled out Twins Geek style - and then my best guess on how Terry Ryan will do it.
Links of the Day for Game 3
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Brad Radke has pitched for the Twins for twelve seasons. It is rare, in the age of free agency, for a player to spend that many years with one team, but Radke has remained. He’s been the constant—none of his teammates from that 1995 squad remain with the team (and, based on their 56 wins (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/1995.shtml), that’s probably a good thing). Now, today, he takes the hill for what could be the final time.
This series has not gone as planned. Frustration has mounted (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/722385.html). But today is not the day to dwell on plays that were not made. Today is the day to put that aside and give Brad Radke his due.
His arm could remove itself from his body at any moment, but he takes the hill in Oakland today, looking to get the ball to Santana in a Game 4. Regardless of today’s outcome, we need to credit Radke for the pain he has pitched through, and we also should credit the rest of this team for making its improbable playoff run. They’ve given Radke one last shot, to go out the way he should.
Here’s an “oh Canada” take on Radke (http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061005.w-twinsas5/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20061005.w-twinsas5), found thanks to the incomparable Athletics Nation (http://www.athleticsnation.com/).
Jim Caple gives Brad some props as well (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2006/columns/story?columnist=caple_jim&id=2614808).
We’re all about small victories here, and this (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/playoffs/2006-10-05-ellis-out_x.htm) will help the cause a little.
The AL Central isn’t dead yet. The Tigers won Game Two of their series yesterday, knotting it at one-all (http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061005/NEWS99/61005012/1048/SPORTS).
Homefield advantage is tough to hold. The Padres dropped Game Two yesterday (http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20061005-1819-bbn-cardinals-padres.html), sending them to St. Louis in a 2-0 hole. Sound familiar?
Enjoy the game today, even if it doesn’t go well. It’s been a hell of a ride.
Brad Radke has pitched for the Twins for twelve seasons. It is rare, in the age of free agency, for a player to spend that many years with one team, but Radke has remained. He’s been the constant—none of his teammates from that 1995 squad remain with the team (and, based on their 56 wins (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/1995.shtml), that’s probably a good thing). Now, today, he takes the hill for what could be the final time.
This series has not gone as planned. Frustration has mounted (http://www.startribune.com/509/story/722385.html). But today is not the day to dwell on plays that were not made. Today is the day to put that aside and give Brad Radke his due.
His arm could remove itself from his body at any moment, but he takes the hill in Oakland today, looking to get the ball to Santana in a Game 4. Regardless of today’s outcome, we need to credit Radke for the pain he has pitched through, and we also should credit the rest of this team for making its improbable playoff run. They’ve given Radke one last shot, to go out the way he should.
Here’s an “oh Canada” take on Radke (http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061005.w-twinsas5/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20061005.w-twinsas5), found thanks to the incomparable Athletics Nation (http://www.athleticsnation.com/).
Jim Caple gives Brad some props as well (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2006/columns/story?columnist=caple_jim&id=2614808).
We’re all about small victories here, and this (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/playoffs/2006-10-05-ellis-out_x.htm) will help the cause a little.
The AL Central isn’t dead yet. The Tigers won Game Two of their series yesterday, knotting it at one-all (http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061005/NEWS99/61005012/1048/SPORTS).
Homefield advantage is tough to hold. The Padres dropped Game Two yesterday (http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20061005-1819-bbn-cardinals-padres.html), sending them to St. Louis in a 2-0 hole. Sound familiar?
Enjoy the game today, even if it doesn’t go well. It’s been a hell of a ride.
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Oakland Athletics
The following is a playoff preview from October's GameDay
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On May 30, the Oakland Athletics lost to the Kansas City Royals, eight to seven. It was Oakland’s third straight loss, and their tenth in the last eleven games. There record was just 23-29. Less than three weeks (and a ten-game winning streak) later, the A’s wrapped up a three-game inter-league sweep of the Dodgers, putting them seven games over .500. The rest, as they say, is cliché.
As the A’s watched their record swell from two games over .500 to twenty, they’ve witnessed the resurgence of someone familiar to Twins fans everywhere. Last season, Frank Thomas watched from the sidelines as the White Sox won the World Series. The health of his ankle was in serious doubt, and Chicago replaced him with Jim Thome. Thomas limped (literally) to the Bay, inking an incentive-laden one year deal worth just $500,000 in base salary. Fortunately for both the Big Hurt and the team, Thomas is cashing in on nearly every one of those $2.6 million of performance bonuses (although, somehow, I doubt he will collect the $50,000 bonus for winning the Gold Glove—yes, it’s in the contract).
At 38 years old, Thomas isn’t just an iron-clad lock for the Comeback Player of the Year award—he’s making a legitimate case for Most Valuable Player. In a lineup that has seen Mark Ellis, Milton Bradley, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, and Mark Kotsay struggle with injuries (and first baseman Dan Johnson just plain struggle), Thomas has been the stabilizing factor, putting up a .950 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the clean-up spot.
At Thomas’s side is Moneyball hero Nick Swisher. Along with providing manager Ken Macha with some much-needed lineup flexibility (while he’s listed as a left fielder, he has actually played slightly more games at first base), Swisher provides a second fearsome bat. His combination of power (a slugging average near .500) and patience (drawing about one hundred walks) has been indispensable for Oakland.
Two of Oakland’s “Three Aces” (Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder) have departed the team, but the pitching staff remains a strength. While assumed staff ace Rich Harden has struggled with injury problems all year, Oakland has found success with a rotation of former Cy Young winner Barry Zito, youngsters Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, spell-check nightmare Kirk Saarloos, and winter free agent signing Esteban Loaiza.
But the real strength of the staff is the bullpen. Oakland finished with the third-best bullpen ERA in the league, led by second-year stopper Huston Street and his sub-3.00 tally. The A’s also got excellent production out of Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer (speaking of the unspellable), Kiko Calero, and the aforementioned Saarloos, who has split time between the pen and the rotation. With the problems Oakland experienced with their starting staff, it was the bullpen that propelled them to the AL West championship.
When playoff baseball starts, with its shorter rotation and intense games, having a superior bullpen is often the difference between an unceremonious exit and a champagne shower. And that strength, along with the mashers in the middle of the lineup, makes the A’s a dangerous team and a legitimate contender for October glory.
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On May 30, the Oakland Athletics lost to the Kansas City Royals, eight to seven. It was Oakland’s third straight loss, and their tenth in the last eleven games. There record was just 23-29. Less than three weeks (and a ten-game winning streak) later, the A’s wrapped up a three-game inter-league sweep of the Dodgers, putting them seven games over .500. The rest, as they say, is cliché.
As the A’s watched their record swell from two games over .500 to twenty, they’ve witnessed the resurgence of someone familiar to Twins fans everywhere. Last season, Frank Thomas watched from the sidelines as the White Sox won the World Series. The health of his ankle was in serious doubt, and Chicago replaced him with Jim Thome. Thomas limped (literally) to the Bay, inking an incentive-laden one year deal worth just $500,000 in base salary. Fortunately for both the Big Hurt and the team, Thomas is cashing in on nearly every one of those $2.6 million of performance bonuses (although, somehow, I doubt he will collect the $50,000 bonus for winning the Gold Glove—yes, it’s in the contract).
At 38 years old, Thomas isn’t just an iron-clad lock for the Comeback Player of the Year award—he’s making a legitimate case for Most Valuable Player. In a lineup that has seen Mark Ellis, Milton Bradley, Bobby Crosby, Eric Chavez, and Mark Kotsay struggle with injuries (and first baseman Dan Johnson just plain struggle), Thomas has been the stabilizing factor, putting up a .950 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the clean-up spot.
At Thomas’s side is Moneyball hero Nick Swisher. Along with providing manager Ken Macha with some much-needed lineup flexibility (while he’s listed as a left fielder, he has actually played slightly more games at first base), Swisher provides a second fearsome bat. His combination of power (a slugging average near .500) and patience (drawing about one hundred walks) has been indispensable for Oakland.
Two of Oakland’s “Three Aces” (Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder) have departed the team, but the pitching staff remains a strength. While assumed staff ace Rich Harden has struggled with injury problems all year, Oakland has found success with a rotation of former Cy Young winner Barry Zito, youngsters Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, spell-check nightmare Kirk Saarloos, and winter free agent signing Esteban Loaiza.
But the real strength of the staff is the bullpen. Oakland finished with the third-best bullpen ERA in the league, led by second-year stopper Huston Street and his sub-3.00 tally. The A’s also got excellent production out of Chad Gaudin, Justin Duchscherer (speaking of the unspellable), Kiko Calero, and the aforementioned Saarloos, who has split time between the pen and the rotation. With the problems Oakland experienced with their starting staff, it was the bullpen that propelled them to the AL West championship.
When playoff baseball starts, with its shorter rotation and intense games, having a superior bullpen is often the difference between an unceremonious exit and a champagne shower. And that strength, along with the mashers in the middle of the lineup, makes the A’s a dangerous team and a legitimate contender for October glory.
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