Rushing Pavano

It’s tempting to wait for something you want. The question is how much waiting costs you.

In this case, that something is Carl Pavano. Pavano is certainly worth waiting for. He was the second best starting pitcher on the team, the team’s horse, and proved to be a super-powered Luigi, outdueling the likes of Roy Halladay and Johan Santana.

It also looks like he might be more affordable than we might have thought. Originally, he looked like he would earn at least a 3-year, $30M deal. But the market for his services became a lot thinner once the Twins offered him arbitration and he turned it down. Faced with needing to give up a high draft pick to sign Pavano, the field has reportedly narrowed to:
- Milwaukee (who says they won’t offer more than a 2-year contract),
- Washington (who says they won’t offer a multi-year deal),
- Texas (who everyone assumes would be interested if they lost out on Cliff Lee, but hasn’t pursued Pavano yet) and
- your Minnesota Twins.

It seems increasingly likely that the Twins could re-sign him for just 2 years and $20 million. Or even $2/18 with a 3rd year team option that they can buy out for $2M? Either contract would be a bargain given his performance last year. And with an xFIP (a stat that is a better predictor of ERA than ERA) of 4.02, why shouldn’t he remain effective?

Geek Chorus: It’s not like the mustache from which he clearly derives his superpowers is going anywhere soon.

On the other hand, we found out yesterday what waiting for his price to come down can cost when Jesse Crain signed with the White Sox. It isn’t a surprise that Crain left – the Twins never looked like they were interested in paying the top-flight money Crain received. But it is also clear that the Twins are working within a fairly limited budget, and they aren’t spending that money until they have resolved the Pavano situation.

Geek Chorus: So what was ths cost exactly? Or is this more about what Crain "represents?"

The latter, and losing him and Matt Guerrier signals that the reliever free agent market is heating up. The Twins must address other needs. Their bullpen is almost completely empty. Their bench lacks any kind of real replacement and their starting lineup is filled with players that missed significant time last year. Nick covered this yesterday, and if there is one thing we’ve learned about the AL Central in this last decade, it is that the deeper team usually survives to go to the postseason.

I don’t have real strong feelings one way or the other on Pavano, even at a bargain price, but the timing is important. The high-end relievers are starting to sign, and that’s a market that the Twins can’t miss out on. There is an unbelievable amount of talent out there this year for relievers – a lot of it supplied by the Twins. It is a buyer’s market, and could allow the Twins to establish a strong bullpen for the next couple of years - if they don't miss out on it.

If Pavano really wants to come back to the Twins, and the Twins really want to have back Pavano, it’s time to supply him an offer with an expiration date. By the end of the weekend, we’ll start spending the money that we are offering you.

Personally, I might walk away now. Pavano is great, but he’s not the left-handed ace or right-handed power that should be the top two priorities this offseason, so I can’t justify spending limited money on him. This team signaled how strapped for cash they were when they traded away a pretty decent shortstop for two intriguing but marginal prospects. It will cost at least another $9M to sign Pavano, and that is $9 million that can’t be spent on filing several other needs.

In fact, it sounds increasingly like the Twins would need to trade away one of their younger cheaper starters to find room for Pavano’s salary in the budget. There is a reason why Kevin Slowey has been the subject of trade rumors lately, and it’s not just because the Twins would have six reasonable starting pitchers. They’re never been afraid of that in the past. It's because they would want to get the $3M he could make in arbitration off the books.

I also worry about giving a multi-year contract to a guy who was injured for so much of his career. It wasn’t just New York. This year was only the third time he had ever achieved 200 innings. And while in New York an orthopedic specialist diagnosed him with a hip dysfunction that led to one leg being longer than the other, which they thought was the root cause of all his back/elbow/shoulder problems. He's been reasonably healthy the last two years, but Twins fans who watched his exceptional year might not understand just how rare that was.

But I’ll say this: it’s a close call. If the Twins sign Pavano at a reasonable deal, and he performs anywhere near to what he did last year, the worse case scenario is that he’s a tradable asset next offseason. Best case? He keeps on rolling and finally lives up to the hype that surrounded him in his youth, when he was both a premier free agent signing and the guy who was traded for Pedro Martinez.

And so, neither is a bad option. What is critical is that the decision be made fairly quickly, so that if the money isn't spend on Pavano, it's spend while there are still other options available.

The Casilla Boogeyman

A couple of months ago it was all so clear. Alexi Casilla would be a starting middle infielder for the Minnesota Twins in 2011. It had been predestined since August, when it became clear that Orlando Hudson was likely to walk away from the Twins as a free agent.

Casilla, after recovering from an elbow injury, had a decent year in 2010, hitting .276, getting on base 33 % of the time and even showing a little more power than we’ve see before. He’s also only 26 years old, and best of all is fairly cheap as this is his first year of arbitration. He looked like a decent replacement -- decent enough that all four of the TwinsCentric guys blueprints chose him to be starting at second base on Opening Day.

But since the trade of JJ Hardy, that all seems to have changed. Casilla has become the default target, a boogeyman that Twins fans should fear. He’s inconsistent. His defense at shortstop is suspect. He’s a question mark. He doesn’t get on base enough or have enough power.

What I can’t figure out is: where were these concerns a month ago? After all, he was slated for 500 at-bats at that time. He was going to be playing a middle infield position. He was the same guy that we were ready to hand a job to.

So, pop quiz, hot shot: Why are we suddenly so concerned about handing him a job now? Let’s make it a multiple choice question…

A) His offense isn’t good enough.
Casilla’s career numbers are under whelming.

(MS-Word is telling me that under whelming is two words. Really? Is overwhelming? No, that works fine as one word. Which raises the question: what is just plain whelming?

whelm: tr. v. 1.To cover with water; submerge. 2. To overwhelm.)

Ok, so Casilla’s offensive career numbers don’t exactly whelm anyone. In his major league career, he’s hit just .249 and got on base at a .306 clip, which are the two things we’re going to care the most about from our middle infielder offensively. What’s more, he’s had some time to show us what he’s capable of, with 958 AB.

The good news? He was better than that last year. He has been quite a bit better than that in his minor league career, hitting .297 with and OBP of .370. And he seems to have a pretty solid idea what the strike zone is, as he walked 13 times last year compared to 17 strikeouts. That ratio is pretty consistent to what he showed in the minors.

He’s also fast, which is the oft-cited reason for having him on the roster. In what is essentially a little less than two season’s worth of at-bats, he has 35 stolen bases. Even better, he only has been caught just four times, a phenomenal percentage.

But the really big question is – if we were ready to hand him the job at second base, is it his offense that we’re really worried about now that he might be playing shortstop? After all, second base is a far more demanding position offensively than shortstop. If he could hold his own there, why not across the infield? In fact, wouldn’t that be a way to maximize his value to the organization?

B) His defense isn’t good enough.

When Casilla basically lost his job at second base in 2009, one of the reasons was his defensive mistakes. He wasn’t very consistent, and he seemed to make more than his share of mental mistakes. Ultimate Zone Rating confirmed his struggles with a ranking of 7.2 runs worse than average that year.

Of course, statisticians would be quick to point out that is a fairly small sample size. The year before, when he played a lot more innings, he was essentially average. Last year, with far fewer innings, he was also essentially average. In his career, over about 1.5 years of fielding at 2B, UZR estimates he has cost the team about 12 runs.

I think that makes people very concerned about him moving to shortstop, because shortstop is a more demanding defensive position. It is not, however, just a tougher version of the same position. It isn’t unusual for players to be better at shortstop than at second base. For instance, Nick Punto played roughly the same amount at 2B and SS while with the Twins. According to UZR, he was about 13 runs per season better at SS.

Twins fans might have been seeing a little of this in Casilla. Last year he played more innings at shortstop than at second base. To my eye, he was competent there, mixing in some Alexi-gaffes with the occasional really nice play. Ultimate Zone Rating agrees, by the way. It says he saved four runs over an average shortstop last year in very limited time. Anyone familiar with UZR would warn that this is a very small sample size, and UZR needs a much larger sample to give much of an evaluation. But there certainly isn’t any evidence there that he can’t handle the job.

Of course, if it doesn’t work out, it’s not like the Twins hands are tied. You might recall that the other guy likely to start in the middle infield, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, has a little experience at shortstop. He was switched over there by a former major league manager, Bobby Valentine. He won two gold gloves there, so I think you would grant me that it’s possible he could work out there.

C) Now we have two question marks in the middle infield.

Sure we do – but who is the bigger question mark exactly? The Twins are about as familiar as they can be seeing as they traded for him while he was still in A-ball. And while I’m sure they’ve done their due diligence in scouting Nishioka, he’s the one that has been playing overseas, against a level of competition that the Twins aren’t completely familiar with.

Casilla isn’t going to need to adjust to a completely different culture and a slightly different game. Casilla isn’t going to be the one struggling to communicate with his teammates and coaches. For that matter, Casilla is officially on the team. Casilla is the (by far) more affordable player. So why are we sure Casilla is the guy that will struggle? Or that he might be the odd man out when a rumor about trading for Brendan Ryan makes the rounds?

D) We had something taken away from us.

This is, I think, the correct answer. Since we received word that the Twins had won exclusive negotiating rights to Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins fans mistakenly assumed that Casilla was back in a utility role. The Twins had a flashy new toy from Japan to play with so Casilla would be at the same position he played last year of utility infielder.

Of course, we know now that was never really the case. Nishioka was always a replacement option for Hardy, no matter whether he swapped positions or not. The Twins decided Hardy wasn’t worth what he would make in arbitration (which is likely closer to $7M than $6M), whether that was because of his injuries, speed, or whatever. When it became apparent that he WAS worth that money to other teams, they were able to offer him arbitration and trade him.

But it doesn’t FEEL like that to us. In our minds, Casilla just got a promotion and we focus on the things he doesn’t have that Hardy did. Casilla doesn’t have Hardy’s offensive upside. He doesn’t have Hardy’s consistent defense. He is more of a question mark than Hardy. We concentrate on these things because they were just taken away from us, not because Casilla is being asked to do anything more than we expected from him a month ago. We might justify it with analysis, but I think the motivation is more primal the analytical: we just want our toy back.

Or maybe a primal urge was what drove us to give Alexi a starting job in the first place two months ago – I don’t know. I also don’t know that Casilla is going to thrive as a starting shortstop or second baseman in the major leagues. But I think it’s time to find out. His patience, his speed, his age and his price are an encouraging combination. So quit trying to convince me that he is the boogeyman.

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The Diamond Awards

OK, so I have that big ticket item to give your favorite Twins fan – even if that person is yourself. It’s a unique opportunity, something they’ll probably remember forever, and it all benefits a good cause.

On Thursday, January 27th, the night before TwinsFest, the 2011 Diamond Awards takes place. This is the banquet that the Twins organization throws where they hand out team awards like Most Valuable Player, etc. It’s hosted by Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven, features a lineup of Twins greats, and is even televised. Think of it as the Emmys, except in Minnesota and about baseball. Doesn’t that sound like a great baseball date?

And while TwinsFest will be at the Metrodome, the Diamond Awards will be at Target Field. (Don’t ask me where. I don’t have any idea how they’ll be doing that, but I have to imagine it’s a great chance to go behind the scenes there a little.

The cost is $150/ticket (and you can purchase them here), but $100 of it is tax-deductible and it benefits the University of Minnesota Medical Foundation, supporting research in ataxia, muscular dystrophy, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease, and ALS. And you can buy them now, before the tax year ends.

So let’s count the ways this rocks: you get to dress up for a great date night (1) that includes hanging out with Twins greats (2) at Target Field (3) during the most baseball-starved part of the season (4). Plus, it supports worthy research (5) and can be written off before this tax year ends (6).

Oh, and I’ll be there, too. (Which probably lowers it back that down to 5.5). So bring it up at dinner tonight and I’ll see you there.

For more info, check out their website.

All About The Money

In case there was any question: it’s still All About The Money.

It looks like the Twins are trading JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris for two minor league pitchers, one of whom is in A-ball and one of whom has been hurt a lot over the last four years. The primary benefit is that it saves the Twins about $9M in money this year. And here’s the punchline:

I like this deal.

I suspect I’m in the minority. I know I was on Twitter yesterday, when the rumored deal didn’t include Harris. But it’s unlikely that Harris was added to the deal by the Orioles; he was probably added by the Twins so they could get his $1.75M contract off the books.

Because, it’s still All About The Money.

The Twins still have a budget to meet, and this trade makes it increasingly likely that the budget went up 10-15% instead of 25-30%. This is why we question whether we should be overpaying for Matt Capps. Or whether or not we should sign a 35-year-old to a 3-year deal for $10M per year to be our sixth starting pitcher. They’re all nice luxuries to have, but they’re luxuries that cost money, and that money needs to come from somewhere.

Last night, the Twins confirmed that they could do without one of those luxuries. They Twins committed to making Alexi Casilla a starting middle infielder when they let Orlando Hudson go. In fact, I think they really committed to that sometime back in August.

And by the way, there were almost no complaints about this from the Twins faithful, which is one of the interesting subtexts about this trade. For all the people suddenly worrying about Casilla’s consistency as a starter because of the Hardy trade – where was that complaint two months ago? Because that’s how long he’s been a starter.

The Twins also committed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka when they bid $5M just to negotiate with him. That commitment isn’t formal yet – Nishioka hasn’t signed – but the organizational commitment is there. And that commitment is going to cost the Twins about $5M/year all told.

That meant the Twins had three starting infielders under and two positions to play them. That’s a nice problem to have, but it’s a luxury, and it’s a luxury that was costing the Twins about $9M ($7M for Hardy, $1.75M for Harris).

The trade isn’t about the players. The trade is (repeat after me) All About The Money and what that money can buy. The trade is about Hardy and Harris for Nishioka, two minor league pitchers and $3.5M to spend on another couple of relievers.

That’s the first thing I like about the deal. There’s more, but it comes at a price. And that price is losing Hardy.

JJ Hardy
Last year, as winter turned to spring, I graded the Twins offseason moves. There was only one A+:

Trading for JJ Hardy (Grade A+)
If Hardy goes belly up - and he's certainly gone belly up a couple of times in his career - then I'm dead wrong. But the Hardy move was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.

Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.

Hardy didn’t go belly up, though I think it’s fair to say he also didn’t meet expectations.
· His OPS was 714. If he would have had enough at-bats to qualify, that would’ve ranked 8th among major league shortstops. But, of course, he was hurt and ended up 125 plate appearances short of that qualification. So offensively…
· He “created” about 43 runs offensively. Among all shortstops, that was 29th in the majors.
· He compensated somewhat with his defense by saving an additional 8 runs over an average shortstop during the season. That ranked 5th in the majors. If you added those 8 runs to his runs created, the 51 runs would’ve boosted him to 23rd on the shortstop “runs created” list.

There are also a few other things that play into Hardy’s value:
· He’s young. He’s only 28 years old.
· He’s right-handed, something the Twins lineup needs.
· He’s not fast, and never will be, having stolen a total six bases in his entire career.
· He finished strong last year, with an OPS of 805 after the all-star break.

Finally, he battled ongoing injuries for the second straight year. I don’t want to apply inexact labels such as “injury prone” to players, so let’s be precise: in his professional career, going back to his first full professional year, he has averaged 104 games played. That’s exactly what he played last year with the Twins and their minor league teams. Over the last four years he’s had two unhealthy years preceded by two healthy years.

Add all that together and you get this: Hardy has not been a particularly good shortstop for the last two years, but there are indications he could be better than that in the future. Maybe not as good as he was in 2008 (89 runs created) or 2007 (85 runs created) but a lot better than the Brewers or Twins have seen this year.

That’s usually enough for the Twins to hang onto a guy. (See Rivas, Luis) The problem is that Hardy is going to get paid about $7M thanks to the arbitration process. That’s a bargain for 2007-8 Hardy. It’s expensive for 2009-10 Hardy. So his value is dependent on who you think 2011 Hardy is.

It is a myth that Hardy is exceptionally cheap for his salary. Hardy fans want to point out that Juan Uribe just signed for $7M/year, and he’s 31, hit .248, and resembles a fire hydrant. But Uribe also accounted for 20 extra runs of offense over what Hardy did last year, posted an OPS 36 points higher than Hardy, and had a positive impact defensively last year too (albeit at second base).

Hardy is a solid major league shortstop being paid a salary commensurate with a solid major league shortstop. He’s not a terrific bargain. Trading him away is not my favorite way of balancing the budget, but it’s not going to get an “F” in the next offseason grades.

The Minor League Pitchers
Even if the deal is mostly about the money, I also like the players the Twins got back in this trade. Or rather, the type of players the Twins got back in this trade. They are exactly what Twins fans have been pining for: intriguing arms.

The guy you’re most likely to see next year is James Hoey. The bad news is that he underwent shoulder surgery a couple of years back and has yet to have made it back to the major leagues. Shoulder surgery is often a death sentence for pitchers, as they never really get their power back.

However, it doesn’t look like that’s going to be a problem for Hoey. Last year between AA and AAA, he struck out 70 in 52.2 IP. That’s a stunningly high rate. On the other hand, he’s also walked a ton of batters, and that looks like it’s been a problem most of his career. I’m absolutely licking my chops to see what Rick Anderson and the Twins organization can do with this guy (and hoping the answer isn’t “bury him like Anthony Slama”).

The second name is Brett Jacobson, an who was the Orioles 4th round pick a couple of years ago. He also has the big strikeout numbers (67 in 71 IP) without the walks. People are concerned that he’s 24 years old and only in A-ball, but age isn’t as big of a concern for evaluating pitchers as hitters, and that’s especially true for relievers. We’ll know more about him when he hits AA ball next year, but he looks like the kind of arm the Twins have had success with.

So that’s why I like the deal: I like the money and what it’s going to be spent on. I like the players they got back. And while I don’t like parting with Hardy, I don’t think he was a particularly big bargain.

Four Teams That Want JJ Hardy

(or so I would guess)

Twins Geek: Time for some Hot Stove Chatter. Yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of …

Geek Chorus: Well, what is he “of” exactly? I always hear “of FOX Sports”, but his post is on a blog at YardBarker.com. Is YardBarker.com owned by Fox Sports? On their home page, they say “with FoxSports.com on MSN.” What the hell does that mean? Are we just adding random prepositions to businesses now?

And on YardBarker.com’s front page they have a big button that says “SPORTS BLOGGERS! JOIN OUT NETWORK!” So could you be Twins Geek of FoxSports.com? Or better yet, Twins Geek of TwinsCentric via StarTribune.com through YardBarker.com with FoxSports.com on MSN? Just by clicking THAT EXCITING BUTTON?

Wow. You are this close to being titled by a half dozen media empires. I’m so excited for you.

Thanks. Anyhoo, yesterday, Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com reported that the Pittsuburgh Pirates “have interest in Tampa Bay’s Jason Bartlett and Minnesota’s JJ Hardy.” He also said both are available via trade.

Geek Chorus: And odds are they are at super low, LOW discount prices today, since the Twins need to decide whether to non-tender Hardy today (provided you’re reading this on Thursday). You can talk all you want about the new stadium, the Twins are still a business, and a fairly conservatively run business at that. Pohlad businesses like to stay within their budgets. This should not be a shocking revelation. We have rougly 463 years of data to support this.

But the last thing the Twins want is to get into a limbo contest (“how low can you go?”) against the Rays when dealing with the Pirates.

Geek Chorus: Agreed. My gawd, they’re the Pirates. Have some pride.

Right. So let’s take a quick look at who some possible trading partners might be for Mr. Hardy’s services.

#4. San Diego Padres – The only problem with the Padres is they’re cheap. They also have a 24-year-old named Everth Cabrera who they sure would like to not suck, but unfortunately last year, he did. They were desperate enough at the trade deadline to trade for Miguel Tejada and his walker and set them up at shortstop. And the Padres supposedly talked to Tejada this offseason, too, so they must like older expensive guys.

Geek Chorus: That’s crazy. Can you imagine anyone thinking Tejada could still play shortstop? Ludicrous.

#3 Pittsburgh Pirates – I’m a little surprised that the Pirates would consider Hardy’s contract, so I don’t expect much of a return if a trade goes down. After all, last year they traded for Akinori Iwamura’s $4.5M option, and all the Pirates gave up was middle reliever Jesse Chavez, who has been traded twice since and posted a 5.89 ERA last year. So forget about getting Joel Hanrahan or even Evan Meek. You might get Chris Resop or ex-Tigers castoff Wil Ledezma.

Geek Chorus: I’ll say this about Pirates GM Neal Huntington - he sure seems to know how to acquire and test a bunch of young arms on the cheap. And maybe turn them into some real players.

#2 Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles had Cesar Izturis at short, who I think started the year with a ton of praise. You can guess how that went. Actually you probably can’t – it was that bad. Beyond normal words kinda bad.

Geek Chorus: Some might say his batting was “Buterrible.”

Touche.

Usually, one wouldn’t expect the Orioles, a team clearly trying to build through youth, to pick up a veteran player on a one-year deal. But the Orioles are showing they have some money to spend this offseason, including making a “significant offer” to Paul Konerko. If they’re in on Konerko, why wouldn’t they be in on Hardy?

Geek Chorus: I’m trying to think of a better sound then the wailing and gnashing of teeth from White Sox fans if Konerko signed with the Orioles. Maybe the sound bites of Kenny Williams subtly (but publicly) questioning Konerko’s desire? Or Ozzie Guillen tweeting in Spanish about how much Williams is paying Mark Teahan? Or AJ Pierzynski cackling as he takes the money they could’ve spent on a real player? My gawd, it’s a symphony of angst. Please, lord, make this happen. I don’t ask for much.

#1 Houston Astros – This organization if for sale, seems to have no idea of the value of a dollar and their shortstop last year was something named “Manzella.”

Geek Chrous: Which is EXACTLY the name I would create to mock a slightly-built, terrible hitting middle infielder. Man-ZELLA!

Well, he’s 6’ 2”, but he did have the distinct honor of having a lower OPS than Drew Butera last year.

The Astros also seem to evaluate player value nearly randomly. I’m not going to lie – this idea makes me giddy. This would have the potential to be a Liriano/Nathan/Bonser for AJ kind of heist. Please lord, make this happen. I don’t ask for much.

What To Expect From Tsuyoshi Nichioka?

Nick was kind enough to put in a little overtime this weekend, covering that the Twins have secured exclusive negotiating rights with Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka with a $5.5M bid. It's important to know that this doesn't mean that Nishioka is going to be a Twins next year. The Twins still need to sign Nishioka, and almost half of the Japanese players who are posted end up not signing with the team that signed them. So far, that includes the most recent posting, pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma, who seems to be at an impasse with the Oakland A's.

So what will it take to sign Nishioka? So far, there haven't been any public salary demands, but history might give us some hint. I can only find one Japanese player who was won with a posting fee around $5M and who signed with a major league team. He also happens to have been a middle infielder that jumped to the majors when he was fairly young. And, maybe not coincidentally, the Twins nearly acquired him last year.

That player is Akinori Iwamura, who lasted four years in the majors, but is probably at the end of his MLB career. From 2007 through 2009, Iwamura played primarily third base and second base for the Tampa Bay Rays before he was traded to the Pirates last year. The Twins thought they had acquired him, going so far as to open up a 40-man roster spot and notify players that were included in the trade. But the Rays ended up choosing the Pirates, the Twins ended up trading for JJ Hardy, and Iwamura and his injured knee had a terrible season in Pittsburgh and Oakland.

However, for the first three years of that contract, Iwamura was a solid contributor, if unspectacular. He hit .281, but got on base at a .354 clip, above the league average. Defensive metrics showed him being average at second base, and a little above average at third base. He was left-handed, he cut down on his strikeouts compared to Japan, and provided a little speed, averaging about 10 stolen bases over those three years. In short, he was a enviable #2 hitter.

With the imminent departure of Orlando Hudson, that's something the Twins could really use, so I wondered how Nishioka compared to Iwamura. And almost across the board, it's good news.

First, Nishioka is younger. Iwamura was 28 when he played in his first year in the majors, while Nishioka will only be 26. That also means the Twins have the rare opportunity to add a Japanese player who is entering the prime years of his career.

Nishioka also looks like he's a better contact hitter than Iwamura was. Iwamura was always good at working a walk, but he also struck out 300 times in his last two years in the Japan Pacific League (JPL). Nishioka hasn't been quite as proficient at drawing walks, but he's also struck out less than half as much. That sounds like a pretty good trait for a #2 hitter.

Nishioka is also quite a bit more aggressive on the bases. Iwamura consistently swiped about 10 SB per year, both in the JPL and with the Rays. Nishioka has averaged 25 stolen bases over the last five years. Again, that looks like a good guy to have at the top of the order.

(Right about now, some sabremetric 101 graduate is planning on pointing out to me that Nishioka's 67% stolen base percentage last year isn't really a benefit to a team. Maybe it isn't on a per run basis over the regular season. But in the playoffs, I want that weapon in my holster versus specific teams. And I'm even more excited now that Victor Martinez just joined the division.)

At least anecdotally, Nishioka seems to be better defensively. Nishioka has won two gold gloves in the JPL, one of which was at shortstop. As far as I can tell, Iwamura never had that kind of reputation.

Finally, Nishioka's skill set seems to translate better to the major leagues. Iwamura was revered in the JPL in part because he was a home run hitter (which also explains his high strikeout rate). In the majors, he hit all of 14 big flys over those three years. Nishioka's skill set is based more on speed and small ball, similar to Ichiro.

But back to the original reason I looked up Iwamura - how much did he sign for? He signed a 3-year deal for $7.7M, which ended up costing the team about $4M per year if you include the posting fee. That sounds reasonable, especially because it include a fourth year team option.

Opinions differ on what would happen if the Twins sign Nishioka. Many believe his defensive skills play better at second base, and so the Twins might retain Hardy. And that's a fine idea, if the team has money for both.

I don't think they do, so I predict it will mean Hardy ends up being traded. The Nishioka signing would allow them to replace Hardy with more speed, replace Hudson at #2 in the order AND save them some money. Then either Nishioka or Alexi Casilla would end up playing shortstop.

Which is one of two concerns I have about this development. Will manager Ron Gardenhire be able to entrust shortstop to either Casilla or Nishioka? In the past, Gardenhire has seemingly placed as much importance on attitude as ability at that position. I can't believe he would ever trust Casilla there, and I wonder how much he could trust a Japanese player, especially if he doesn’t have a great command of english. (I haven't been able to find out well Nishioka speaks english.) Would Gardy be able to help himself, especially if Nick Punto or Matt Tolbert are languishing on the bench?

The other big concern about Nishioka is his health. He's battled injuries his entire JPL career, including a serious knee injury. In fact, that's why his JPL manager Bobby Valentine moved him to shortstop: to protect his lower body.

But if the Twins do end up investing about $4M per year for three years, that's an acceptable risk to take. (For that matter, at just 26 years old, I wouldn't be shocked to agree to a four-year or even a five-year deal.) Nishioka looks like a great fit for the Twins in both the short and long-term. And like last year's trade for Hardy, it gives them quite a bit of flexibility over the rest of the offseason.

Twins Thanks

It’s too damn cold to participate in running the Turkey 5K this morning, which means I find myself with an hour or so to kill before starting the festive holiday gluttoning. So let’s start a new holiday tradition – 10 things I’m thankful for as a Twins fan in 2010.

Honorable Mention:

The Dominican Republic

Without the DR, there wouldn’t be a DR Winter League. And without the DR Winter League, we wouldn’t have been able to watch Francisco Liriano regain his velocity, slider and confidence. When I was raving last March about Liriano’s upcoming year, I was told by a writer I respect that “January is Liriano’s best month.” It wasn’t this year, and I couldn’t be more excited about his future.

Geek Chorus: And so is Brian Cashman. Because unless the Twins get a long-term deal with him done this offseason, he’ll be a free agent after 2012. Hello, pinstripes!

The Bartender at MacKenzie’s

For putting out our beer on ice as we watched the ninth inning of the A’s/White Sox game. The Sox lost, the “Champagne of Beers” was popped, and the Twins won their sixth division title in the last nine years.

Geek Chorus: And he’s thankful to the Twins, for forcing 90% of their fans out of the ballpark before they wised up.

10. Delmon Young’s Stomach Flu

He showed up to spring training in shape and we wondered if we were watching a new Delmon, with newfound discipline. Then he admitted it was mostly the result of being sick. Whatever – he still ended up having a fantastic 2/3 of the year, which is 2/3 more than he had showed previously. So have at that undercooked turkey today Delmon - I’d like to see you in shape again next February.

Geek Chorus: The only way that happens is if you think “round” is “in.”

9. Twins Coverage

Nine years ago, when I started blogging, it was mostly fueled by disappointment in the lack of baseball coverage in this town. I didn’t start writing because I wanted to write about Twins baseball. I started because I wanted to read about Twins baseball, and there weren’t a lot of other options.

Not any more. Now Twins fans are gulping from a firehose of information, even in the offseason. The dailies have really stepped up their game, the national press loves to cover the Twins, and the bloggers – male, female, whimsical and statistical – are creating five times more quality content than I have time to read.

Trust me – I’ve researched who is doing good work blogging for other major league teams. There isn’t any other fan base that has even one-third the number of quality bloggers that Twins fans have.

Geek Chorus: So you’re thankful for – you? Savvy. You may want to revisit what this Thanksgiving thing is all about. Or just give in completely and start talking the third person. You’re practically there.

8. Twitter

For turning every Twins game into the most prolific discussion board ever, while also fitting into my pocket. Twitter is the next frontier for blogs, and Twins fans have a good start on creating the best community of any major league team. Join us, won’t you? You start this weekend by following John, Seth, Parker and Nick.

Geek Chorus: And I’m sure your friends and family who sit, face-to-face, with you at games, are thankful for you being totally engrossed in your fantasy virtual world, too. Instead, you could be telling them about Alexi Casilla’s OPS. Hmm. Maybe they really ARE thankful.

7. Brad Childress and Tim Brewster

To Childress, for distracting the heat away from the ridiculous talk about getting rid of Ron Gardenhire. And to Brewster, for reminding us what can happen when you make a change to get to the next level.

Geek Chorus: Oh, the Gopher switched levels, all right….

6. The Pornstache

For giving us Pavano’s best year since his prime. For it’s cheesy goodness. And for inspiring the Super Mario theme to play before home starts that my kids could listen for.

Geek Chorus: And for the outstanding performance over Roy Halladay to take the series in Philadelphia while you were staying with your in-laws.

Right. That, too.

5. The Third Base Line Fence at Target Field

But mostly for the Twins players that come over to that third base line fence while they’re warming up and sign autographs for the kids. This year, it was mostly rookies or recent Rochester call-ups and that is absolutely fine with me. I cannot tell you what the means to parents. Thank you guys.

Geek Chorus: Even if it means your son becomes a devoted fan of Matt Tolbert? Are you sure that’s worth it?

4. Twins Fans

I’ve lamented for years that Minneapolis is a football town, and not a baseball town. Football still ranks first, but this summer we were a baseball town. I’m sure of it. Look at the comments sections here. Look at the pregame and postgame crowds downtown. Look at the TwinsCentric Offseson GM Handbook sales. Look at the rage and disappointment following this year’s postseason. Ten years ago this would have been unimaginable. Thank you all so much for caring about baseball.

Geek Chorus: Now, if we could just get the football crowd to stop The Wave.

3. Jim Thome

I loved him. He brought electricity to the plate, leadership to the clubhouse, historical gravity to the ballpark, and full-hearted goodwill to the fan base.

Geek Chorus: And a 1 for 10 to the postseason.

2. Target Field

It’s outdoors. I know I’m supposed to gush about little details, etc, but I’ve seen all the other outdoor parks, and honestly, I don’t think it’s a lot better than most of them. But it’s outdoors. And after being trapped in that god-forsaken teflon-coated mausoleum for twenty-five years, that’s enough.

Geek Chorus: Now, if they can just get some decent food that I don’t need to wait three innings for.

1. The Oughts

The decade started with a run by a Tom Kelly coached team that gave us all hope – and then a tremendous collapse and the threat of contraction. But it is hard to imagine that any fan base could hope for more than the Twins provided short of winning a championship. As a low-revenue team, they were competive not just for a couple of years, but for a decade. They provided Gold Gloves, batting titles, Cy Youngs and MVPs. They extended their season for seven of their nine years. The coverage of the team exploded to satisfy even the hungriest fan. They built a fan base that packed their new outdoor park and dominated the media. And they have shown almost no sign of slowing down for the next decade. World Championship or no, we probably just lived through the best decade to be a Twins fan. And I’m thankful for it.

Geek Chorus: So am I. And I really treasure each of the six playoff wins. Bring on the next decade.

The Capps Punchline

“#Twins GM Bill Smith said it’s “not at all” a question if they’ll tender Matt Capps a contract and bring him back, meaning they will. #Nats”

- tweeted by Nationals beat reporter Adam Kilgore

It’s 139 characters; 120 of which make me want to put my hand in a blender, followed by 19 that make me laugh out loud. Let’s hear the punchline again:

“meaning they will.”

Ha! Get it? The clarification is needed, because the first 80% of the tweet ISN’T clear. That which Bill Smith says is “not at all” a question could be interpreted just the opposite. In fact, it SHOULD be interpreted just the opposite. There is NO WAY on gawd’s green earth the Twins should be offering Matt Capps arbitration. It should be obvious to anyone who studies the issue for a single hour what a tremendous waste of limited resources that is. Offering arbitration to Capps calls into question the sanity of the entire front office.

So let’s study this:

1. Capps is a good reliever.
Know why I’m making this point #1? Because I don’t hate Capps. I like Capps. So please, I’m begging you, don’t put a comment below that says “You just hate Matt Capps.” He’s been durable, he’s been closing for 3.5 years so far, and he was fifth in the majors this year in saves.

2. Capps is going to make $7-8M if the Twins offer him arbitration.
And for all of those reasons above, Capps is going to make a lot of money in arbitration. In fact, he might make more than $8M, depending on how aggressive his agent wants to be. But if he plays it safe and asks for $7.2M or so, there is no way he loses that arbitration case. Let’s explain why.

The value of a player in arbitration is determined by looking at comparable players, and the two main factors for determining a comparable player are:
1) Performance – How the player has compared statistically to other similar players over the last two years.
2) Tenure – This one might surprise you, but it’s a big deal, too. Capps, who has 5 years of service time, won’t be compared to Mariano Rivera (14 years of service time) or Oakland’s Andrew Bailey (1 year). He’ll be compared to players who have similar service time.

It turns out that last offseason, there were two closers with five years of service who Capps might be compared to, but neither of whom has anywhere near the 69 saves that Capps had the last two years.

1. The first is Chad Qualls, who isn’t a great comp in any way other than service time. For instance, when he signed that deal, he had only closed for one year (he had 33 saves in 2009). He got $4.5M to melt down for the Diamondbacks this year.
2. The second is Huston Street, who had been closing for a few years, and had 53 saves over the two previous years. He signed a 3-year deal that paid him about $7.2-$7.5M per year. He looks like the closest comp to Capps.

Unfortunately, for the Twins, the news gets worse from there. Because there were a lot of other signings last January of players between four and six years of service time that reinforce that $7M number – or even worse. They’re all reasonable for an arbitrator to look at when deciding how much Capps should be paid in his sixth year. Here they are with their service time and how many saves they had over the two previous years.

• Jonathon Broxton (4 years, 50 saves) – signed a 2-year deal that will pay him $7M in his sixth year.
• Bobby Jenks (4 years, 59 saves) – agreed to make $7.5M in his fifth year.
• Jonathon Papelbon (4 years, 79 saves) – agreed to made $9.35M in his fifth year.
• Heath Bell (4 years, 42 saves) – only made $4.5M, but that was in his fifth year and he had only closed for one year.
• Kevin Gregg (6 years, 52 saves) – agreed as a free agent to $2.75M deal.
• Jose Valverde (6 years, 69 saves) – agreed as a free agent to $7M per year for two years from Tigers – and also cost them a first round draft pick.

The Twins can hope that the arbitrator thinks Capps is closer to Gregg and Qualls than to Street, Valverde, Broxton, Jenks and Papelbon, but I wouldn’t count on it.

3. There are at least eight - check that, seven - better free agent relievers available for less money than Capps.
It’s down to seven because one signed yesterday. The Tigers inked Joaquin Benoit to three-year deal for $5.5M per year. He’s the first significant free agent middle reliever signed, and it looks like they overpaid to get him. He’ll probably serve as a setup man this year and a closer after Valverde’s contract ends. Let’s look at Capps and Benoit’s stats and you tell me which one is better:

Player A: 73 IP, 2.47 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 7.27 K/9IP
Player B: 60.3 IP, 1.34 ERA, .680 WHIP, 11.1 K/9IP

Player B is better at striking players out, limiting hits, limiting walks, and not giving up runs. He’s also going to be two million dollars cheaper next year, because that’s Benoit. Capps on the other hand pitched a few more innings – and tallied 42 saves.

Not every reliever can be a closer – I get that. But did anything about Capps’ performance last year make you think “Ooh, he has ice in his veins?” Capps is a good reliever, but there are a lot of great relievers who are free agents this year, and Benoit is going to be one of the most expensive.

In short, if the Twins offer $7.5M to Capps, they are choosing him over two relievers, both of whom are better than him. In a year in which almost the entire bullpen is filing for free agency, that’s close to unforgivable.

4. Trading away Wilson Ramos should not have any bearing on this decision.
The fact that the Twins gave up catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Capps should have nothing to do with this decision. The fact that the Twins justified trading Ramos for Capps because Capps was arbitration-eligible should have nothing to do with this decision. Ramos is gone. He no longer matters to this team. If that’s part of the decision-making process, someone needs to remind the front office to look forward, not back. If that’s part of the decision-making process, someone needs to ask if the front office is more focused on making the team better or covering their collective ass.

Instead, the question is whether the Twins are better off spending $7.5M on Capps or on other players. After a little study, I’ll agree with Smith that it is “not at all” a question.

I just disagree with the punchline.

Make The Bad Thoughts Go Away...

...or just kill me.

(Looks like I have a topic for Thursday.)

Twins Sign Pitcher Eric Hacker

According to a tweet by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, the Twins have signed pitcher Eric Hacker to a major league deal.

The key in that last sentence is the word “major,” which indicates they expect him to make the roster. The 27-year-old right-hander is probably best described by the word “journeyman.” He has less than a year of major league experience, so he isn’t a traditional free agent. He was just released by the Giants, who he signed a minor league deal with last year. He spent the year in AAA. He started hot, and even was considered to be called up with the Giants in May (over of Madison Bumgarner, who ended up looking like a 21-year-old ace in the playoffs this year). Hacker looks like he cooled considerably as the season went on, finishing with a 4.51 ERA and 129K in 165.2 IP. He doesn’t look like he has outstanding control, as he walked 62.

I’m guessing you’re looking at the Twins new long reliever, in the same way Clay Condrey was the Twins long reliever last year, except, you know, hopefully healthier.

I categorize this as puzzling. It’s not clear why a player of Hacker’s caliber needed a major league deal. It’s equally not clear why he would be more valuable in that role than Jeff Manship, Glen Perkins, or Anthony Swarzak. And for a team that was so protective of 40-man roster moves chooses to spend one on a minor league journeyman pitcher who is going to throw long relief. Oh, well. At least we’ll have some fun with his last name.

Late note: Seth pointed out to me that Hacker has options, so even though it is a guaranteed contract, it likely means its a 2-way deal, meaning the amount of money he makes would vary if he's in the majors or minors. As such, it's not a rue thing that Hacker makes the 25-man roster, and he might be signed as a AAA starter that could possibly find his way into a long relief or swingman role on the major league team. The move makes a little more sense then - it adds some depth, but doesn't commit the Twins too much. If so, it indicates that Twins thought they had some extra room on their 40 man roster that they didn't want to fill with internal options, which isn't a great sign.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka

There were a few surprising bits of information to come out yesterday about Japanese players looking to play in the US:

1) The Twins bid on one. I don't remember every hearing that before. Joe Christensen reported that they bid on Hisashi Iwakuma, a right-handed starting pitcher who is considered to be one of the top pitchers in Japan. They didn't get him - the A's did, which is interesting because they could now trade a starting pitcher. But it's interesting that the Twins would be willing to target a starting pitcher, that the starting pitcher was right-handed, and that they were willing to pay the posting fee. That last point is an especially good sign considering how cash-strapped we think they are. It also makes me wonder if they wouldn't be happy to pay Pavano to come back, meaning they would be more likely to offer him arbitration.

2) Another Japanese player may be posted, and this one is a shortstop. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is a switch-hitting shortstop who hit .346 last year and is known as for stealing bases. He is also known as being injury prone, which is one of the reasons he's playing shortstop, to protect his health. But the most interesting thing about him is that he's just 26 years old, much younger than most Japanese players that are allowed to come to the majors. Or at least that's the most interesting thing to me. My anime-obsessed daughter and his friends are likely going to be more interested in his hair and running their fingers through it.

I don't know that the Twins would have any interest in Nishioka. 24 hours ago I would've thought there was no chance. I still doubt they would. But today, just because they already had one bid for a Japanese posted player, I'm not as sure.

How To Beat The Yankees?

I'm a romanticist, and like to think that heart and character have a place in winning championships. It makes for a better narrative and a better life lesson, and it's one of the reasons I watch.

But I think you'll grant me that character isn't the whole story. There is an element of practical gamesmanship too. We might remember David beating Goliath because of the great courage he showed. But it's also because the weaker party only pulls that sort of thing off every few thousand years. Gamesmanship wins.

I'm also a statistician, so I recognize that luck plays a part in championships, too. But 12 straight playoff losses? That's ridiculous. Do you know what the odds are of a flipping a coin and having come up "loser" 12 times in a row? I don't either, but I know it's significantly beyond "unlucky."

And so I'm back at gamesmanship. In the ALCS, the Yankees were who we thought they were. They have two very good left-handed starters - and not a lot else. They have a lineup that struggles against good left-handed pitching. A catcher that can't shut down the base paths. And a bullpen that can be exposed.

From a gamesmanship and matchup standpoint, the Rangers were a perfect fit to play and defeat that team. Almost their whole lineup is right-handed. They have an experienced ace left-handed starter and another very good one. They have plenty of speed - and somewhat reckless speed at that. And they showed an ability to wear down the starting pitchers.

The Twins aren't too far away from that. They're never going to have a predominantly right-handed hitting lineup with key players like Span, Morneau and Mauer in it, but there is no reason to not look at filling the rest of the lineup with right-handed bats, especially at DH. They already have one ace left-hander in Liriano who can work on his experience and his stamina. Adding another really good left-hander isn't impossible with names like Jorge de la Rosa, Wandy Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez and Jon Niese out there.

But the gamesmanship isn’t just about getting new names. There are things the coaching staff can do, too. Like working on some aggressive baserunning. Listen, teams shouldn't work on stealing bases to give their team a tremendous edge over the 162-game season. They should steal bases to give them an additional weapon to use against select teams in the playoffs. So let's work on stealing - especially against left-handed pitching.

Finally, I'll point out again that the two home game the Twins lost, they lost when their starting pitcher tired in the 6th and 7th innings. They lost them when their starters were approaching the 100-pitch mark. So, given that the Twins starters arms are getting a little older and given that there is no statistical study (despite a ton of attempts) to show that the 100-pitch barrier has any relation to injuries, how about working during the season to stretch these guys out a bit? How about letting the opposing team decide when our pitcher is done - like they've done in the postseason?

The Twins are beyond the point where they need to worry about just creating the "best team." They routed their division opponents last year and clinched earlier than anyone else in major league baseball. It's time to switch the focus from the regular season to the postseason, and from overall excellence to strategic gamesmanship. Design a team that can matchup well with other likely postseason teams. Especially the Yankees.

It's a riskier course, but after 12 straight losses, it might be time to take a different path.

My Offseason Blueprint

“Keep your feet on the ground, but keep reaching for the stars.”

– Casey Kasem, American Top 40

Shaggy’s sage advice is easier said than done, but the Minnesota Twins this year are going to need to do both. On the one hand, they face a payroll situation that likely means disassembling the team they have, let alone adding players. On the other, they have a fan base (not to mention people in their own organization) that expects significant upgrades to overcome their futility in the playoffs.

The reality probably is that they can’t do both, and maybe shouldn’t take the risks that come with trying to do both. The AL Central is going to be less, not more, competitive next year. The White Sox and Tigers are retooling and the Royals and Indians are at least another year away. Also, the Twins payroll situation loosens up to the tune of $23M in 2012 when Michael Cuddyer’s and Joe Nathan’s contracts come off the books.

So the sage thing to do is probably stay the course for one year, and that’s what I expect the Twins will do. I think they’ll offer arbitration to Carl Pavano, who I think will accept it. They’ll negotiate a multi-year deal with Matt Capps that will keep them from overpaying him in arbitration. They’ll re-sign or bring in some cheaper relievers and a veteran right-handed bench bat like Fernando Tatis. They might trade one of their young starters (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey or Brian Duensing) for a decent, affordable, middle infielder. And, of course, they’ll re-sign Nick Punto as a utility player or maybe shortstop.

They will wave goodbye to Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy, Brian Fuentes, Jesse Crain and (sigh) Jim Thome. They will also wave goodbye to a considerable amount of good will that was generated by the first year in Target Field. But that good will should return when they once again win the AL Central – and hope they don’t face the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. This is a sage, risk-adverse, and probably successful strategy.

I, however, am not sage.

I also don’t need to be risk-adverse, since I’m just (virtually) flapping my gums. And I really, really, REALLY dislike the Yankees. Really. So I’m going to go in another direction.

The Yankees faults are well documented. To beat them a team needs left-handed pitching, preferably powerful. It needs big right-handed bats, especially if they add Cliff Lee to their pitching arsenal. It helps to be patient, since it allows a team to antagonize a fairly thin bullpen. And a team would love to have some speed.

This free agent market has some opportunities. The first baseman market is chock full of talent. There are a lot of relievers who are attractive. There are quite a few sluggers with bad gloves. And even the starting pitcher market has several workhorses.

We’re going to try and take advantage of those and acquire a couple of pieces to make beating the Yankees a reality and make my fan base (and clubhouse) happy. And we’re going to try and keep the tab under $18 million ($110 million total), so it keeps my bosses happy.

1. Sign LHP Jorge de la Rosa to a 4 year/$44M contract. Don’t offer Carl Pavano arbitration. Trade away Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey.

It’s unusual to have such a good fit as de la Rosa on the free agent market, so I’m paying up and taking on the risk of a four-year contract. He’s young, he can strike guys out and he’s left-handed. He’s also a little wild, but I’ll trust Rick Anderson to help him with that. (I’m trusting Rick Anderson to help with a lot of stuff, you’ll soon see.)

Affording de la Rosa means bidding Pavano adieu. I disagree with the rest of the TwinsCentric crew on offering Pavano arbitration. I don’t think that I could offer him arbitration because he might take it rather than face the market with that Type A loadstone tied around his neck. If he accepts it, I’m already over my whole budget, and I have more to buy.

That gives me six starting pitchers, which I would normally love, but I need to unload some salary. So I need to trade away Baker(-$5M), Blackburn(-$3M) or Slowey(-$3). I don’t really care which one, so long as I get back some speed, preferably from a middle infield spot. (Is Oakland SS Cliff Pennington available?)

(BTW, I don’t rule out trading away Brian Duensing instead. It doesn’t save me any money, but for the right return, I figure something else out. He might really be overvalued by other teams right now given he early success, and he’s left-handed.)

2. Sign Derrek Lee to a 2 year/$14M contract.
There’s my right-handed bat and my insurance policy if Morneau doesn’t come back, since Lee is an exceptional glove man. He wasn’t good last year, but he’s only 35 and I’m hoping that was a fluke. It raises the sticky question of which guy is the first baseman if Morneau is better, since they both are very good, but I’ll let my manager work that out.

If I can’t get Lee, this is a banner year for big right-handed bats, provided you don’t care if they DH. Paul Konerko, Jayson Werth, Magglio Ordonez, Vladamir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Pat Burrell are all out there. I suppose you could stick Jorge Cantu and Troy Glaus in there, too. I settled on Lee because I expect him to be the guy who is the cheapest of those premier guys. This is an area in which one stretches the extra million or so if necessary.

To make room, both in the lineup and on the books, I trade away Jason Kubel (-$5.25M). Actually, I would listen to offers for Michael Cuddyer (-$10.5M) or Delmon Young (~$5M) but I’d like to retain their right-handed bats, so I’m mostly shopping Kubel. I’m flexible as to what I get back, but a fast middle infielder or some power middle relief pitching would be nice.

3. Say goodbye to Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy, Jim Thome, Brian Fuentes, Matt Capps, and Jon Rauch. Possibly Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier.

I can’t afford them, so it’s fairly easy, but dumping all those relievers with the save statistic has an ancillary benefit too – it make a ridiculously talented reliever free agent market even deeper.

As for the middle infield, Alexi Casilla is getting one of the middle infield spots and I’m either hoping to get a decent middle infielder back in one of my trades or even re-sign Nick Punto. I’ve unquestionably hurt my infield defense, which isn’t the best strategy with de la Rosa coming on board, but I’ve also improved my speed. Casilla and Punto can both be aggressive on the base paths.

4. Sign at least two power bullpen arms from this list: Grant Balfour ($3.75M), Joaquin Benoit ($3.6M), Jason Frasor ($3M), JJ Putz ($3M), Jeremy Affeldt ($3M) or Frank Francisco ($3M).

I cannot believe how deep this middle relief market is this year. I’ve never seen anything like it. There are power arms everywhere. What’s more, the relief pitching market tends to value saves, making guys like Fuentes, Capps and Rauch valuable, while some of these guys fly under the radar. I’d like nothing better than to load up my team with these arms and let Rick Anderson work his magic.

I’m not gonna lie – I’m giddy about this. I wouldn’t necessarily stop at two - I’d sign as many of them as I could afford. This is the offseason I set up my bullpen for the next three years.

How many can I afford? Let’s see. I added $11M with de la Rosa, subtracted at least $3M by trading away one of my young starters. I added $7.5M with Lee and subtracted $5.25 with Kubel. All told, I’ve spent $10.25M of $18M, leaving me $7.75M. I’ll assume I can get two of these guys for $7M and hope the guys I get back in the trades aren’t arbitration eligible yet.

Let’s see how things look:

Lineup
Denard Span (LH)
Alexi Casilla (SH)
Joe Mauer (LH)
Derek Lee (RH)
Justin Morneau (LH)
Delmon Young (RH)
Michael Cuddyer (RH)
Danny Valencia (RH)
Nick Punto/Other (SH)

Rotation
Francicso Liriano (LH)
Jorge de la Rosa (LH)
Scott Baker (RH)
Nick Blackburn (RH)
Brian Duensing (LH)

Bullpen
Joaquin Benoit?
Frank Francisco?
Joe Nathan
Jose Mijares
Pat Neshek
Jeff Manship/Glen Perkins

That looks like a right-handed leaning lineup that can make the Yankees southpaws work a bit, as well as provide a little speed. I have a couple of tough left-handers at the top of the rotation. And I have the power arms I need in the bullpen.

But I"ve kept the team within a pretty restrictive fiscal limit. It takes advantage of a couple of market surpluses. And, finally, I think there is enough depth to handle the challenges an AL Central race inevitably throws at a team.

Stars? Check. Ground? Check. I think Casey would be proud.

The Offseason Begins!

The day after the World Series, a new baseball season begins - the offseason. It's a second season, and it demands it's own Annual.

Here it is.

The TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook allows you to treat the Twins like your own fantasy team, but within real world parameters. This $9.95 e-book will give you everything you need to enjoy the offseason almost as much as the real season:
- What free agents are available?
- Who can the Twins afford to bring back?
- Who are to trade targets?
- What can Twins fans expect from the farm system?

Last year's book identified place JJ Hardy on the top of the Twins trading wish list and Orlando Hudson as a top free agent target. This year's 95-page e-book is even better, giving you the chance to develop you own blueprint and competitive reports on what the other AL Central rivals are up to. It's less than the cost of a dog and a beer, and it will last you all offseason. Just click on the button to add it to your shopping cart and receive it almost immediately!

This year's version includes a foreword by KSTP's Joe Schmit, and is the in-depth analysis that the Minnesota media relies on and values. Just ask them!

"If you want the best data for playing along with the Twins front office, what you really need to do is order the soon-to-be-released 'Off-Season GM Handbook' by the TwinsCentric crew. It's 30,000-plus words about all the issues that will go into shaping the Twins in 2011 and beyond. It's on my list of the Top 10 things you can buy for under $10, right up there with the Kramarczuk's sausage at Target Field."

- Howard Sinker, editor, StarTribune.com

"The book sets out practical, realistic assessments of what the organization has, what it needs, and where and how it might fill those needs. There are no 'trade Nick Blackburn even up for Felix Hernandez' pipedreams here."

- Ed Thoma, Mankato Free Press

"I also look forward to reading the 2010-2011 TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. I followed the TwinsCentric crew long before they joined the Star Tribune's blogging army and their exhaustive work continues to impress me."

- Joe Christensen, Star-Tribune beat reporter

"John Bonnes' kid goes to school with my kid, and my Target Field seats are next to his seats, so trust me when I say he can't shut up about this stuff."

- David Brauer, MinnPost

Right about now is when someone asks about a paper version. And unfortunately, it's also when I explain why it won't be available in as a paper book. The reason? It just plain has too much information in it to print at a reasonable price level. I'm sorry.

Last year we offered both, sold the paper version at a LOSS - and still sold 10 times the number of ebooks as hard copies. It also ends up being considerably more work as the retailers require reformatting for it to work on paper. Instead, we're looking into sites where you can turn the e-book into a paper book for those who don't mind the extra cost. Again, I'm sorry, but we can't offer it.

The good news? You get it almost immediately after you order it, and since most smartphones support the pdf format it is in, you'll have it at your fingertips all offseason. Provided, of course, you buy it....

Still not convinced? Well, we're so sure you'll like it that we'll give you your money back if you don't. Just email us at TwinsCentric@gmail.com and I will make sure to get your money refunded. Give it a shot.

We'll be back tomorrow with more Twins offseason coverage. Hope you can stop by.

Hidden Aces (Part II)

When we last joined our intrepid blogger, he was researching the word "intrepid." Shortly thereafter, he started looking for "aces" beyond Zach Greinke that the Twins could target this offseason. (You can see Part 2 below.) So he was counting down the qualified starting pitchers with the highest strikeout rates and highlighting the ones that might be available. We were up to #21......

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21. Roy Oswalt (PHI)

22. David Price (TB)

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23. Chad Billingsley (LAD)

Another good name to have handy when someone won’t shut up about Greinke. Billingsley struck out 171 guys this year, had a 3.57 ERA and only gave up 8 home runs. He’s also just 26 years old, and has two years of arbitration left – but he’ll still be fairly expensive this year, probably in the neighborhood of $7M. Normally, that wouldn’t phase the Dodgers, but with the franchise hanging in the crosshairs of that divorce, anything is possible right now.

24. Roy Halladay (PHI)

25. Cliff Lee (TEX)

Ha! Unless you have a time machine and can go back to last offseason. (Hold it – you do? Can I borrow it?)

26. Scott Baker (MIN)

Really? Hold it. Really?

This deserves some comment, but I’m a little stunned. Let me digest this a bit.

27. Ian Kennedy (ARI)

28. Edwin Jackson (CHW)

29. Ted Lilly (CHC/LAD)

Never gonna happen my friend. I think that Jackson is going to be traded somewhere this offseason, just so the White Sox can get his $8.35M salary off their books. After all, he was never supposed to be with them in the first place. The only reason they traded for him was because they thought they were going to trade him to the Nationals. But I can’t see any way they trade him to the Twins.

30. Tommy Hanson (ATL)

31. Jonathon Niese (NYM)

32. Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

33. Shaun Marcum (TOR)

I suppose Hanson (3.33 ERA, 173 K) could be available, but he’s gonna cost you. He is within two years of free agency, and his agent is Scott Boras, so maybe the Braves would be interested in moving him, but it would be a significant deal.

That goes for the next two guys, too. I could see the Mets letting go of Niese(4.20 ERA, 148 K) for some offense. Ditto the Athletics and Gio Gonzalez (3.23 ERA, 171 K). They’re also both left-handed. I’d mark both off-limits if their respective teams weren’t so flawed.

Finally, Marcum(3.64 ERA, 165K) will be in his second year following Tommy John surgery and is two years from free agency. The Jays are already getting excited about their young rotation, so he might be available in the right deal. I would think high upside prospects would be especially tasty bait, so they can follow the path the Rays have tread.

Are they aces? Gio is probably the closest, but I’m encouraged that we haven’t even got to the next four names, all of whom are generally regarded as aces or still playing in the postseason.

34. C.J. Wilson (TEX)

35. CC Sabathia (NYY)

36. Ricky Romero (TOR)

37. Phil Hughes (NYY)

Save your breath. Romero is signed through 2015. I wouldn’t be shocked if Hughes is made available, just because it would be a classic Yankees overreaction to unload him after his last playoff performance. But you’re trying to get an ace to beat the Yankees. Do you really think Hughes is that guy?

38. Zack Greinke (KC)

The 27-year-old Greinke didn’t have a down year just because he was on a cruddy team. He just wasn’t fantastic. His ERA was 4.17 almost two full runs over last year’s. He was in the top 10 in strikeout rate last year, and 38^th this year. He was very, very good, but he wasn't an ace this year. He’s also thrown a lot of innings over the last two years. Was it just a down year that he’ll surely bounce back from, or would the Twins be trading for past performance?

I’m betting it was just a down year, but that doesn’t mean he should be the only guy considered. The next time someone tells you the Twins have to trade for Greinkie, here are some names to have handy: Wandy Rodriguez, Chad Billingsly, and Shaun Marcum. Maybe it'll get them past the Greinke mantra.

Ok – back to Scott Baker.

First, I should point out that he had the second highest ERA of anyone on this list, second to Jamie Shields. But it’s also worth noting that his strikeout rate and walk rate this year were very, very good. He just gave up too many damn hits. Oh, and led the league in slumped shoulders.

It turns out I could say the same thing about Jamie Shields (#18 yesterday), and I’m fairly confident Shields will bounce back. Would other teams be saying that about Baker? Are they wrong, or would a little distance give us a better perspective? And how much did the elbow problems, on which he had surgery immediately following the season, play into things?

This whole exercise is making me wonder if he is a very good candidate to have that breakout year we’ve been waiting for. He just turned 29 years old. His career strikeout rate is over 7 per nine innings. His walk rate is close to 2 per nine innings. His hit rate was below 1 per inning for the last two years. He is exactly the kind of sneaky good struggling pitcher that I would target just looking at his stats. Oh, plus, he’s relatively cheap.

That doesn’t mean he belongs on a list of possible aces. But he’s exactly the kind of sleeper that suddenly breaks through and everyone looks back and wonders how they didn’t see it coming. Shouldn’t we know better? Didn’t we just go through this with Liriano?

Before today I wouldn’t have given two cares about whether Baker got traded away this offseason. Now, I’d love to see him stick around, because I want to see what kind of year he has. I suspect I’m going to want to see it happen with him as a Twin.

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Did you know there is such a thing as a blogging scholarship? Apparently there is, and one of the Twins own bloggers, Andrew Bryz-Gornia of Off The Mark, is a finalist for it. I've met Andrew several times over the last year, and I came away with the distinct impression that he is worth exactly $10,000. But I don't really want to pay him that with my own money, so could you please help me vote him to victory? Just click here and vote for him. Thanks.

Seth has been examining the multitude of decisions the Twins need to make about their bullpen.

Nick takes a look at Bill Smith's greatest weakness.

And over at The Bat Shatters, Adam tries to decide: Thome vs. Kubel.

Hidden Aces

Looking Past Greinke For An Ace.

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Good lord, but I’m tired of hearing about Zach Greinke. I get it – he’s a Cy Young winner. He is also going to be a free agent in two years, so it makes sense for the Royals to shop him. But there are approximately a dozen other teams that are going to be just as interested in acquiring him as the Twins, and only one team is going to get him.

It might make sense to have a backup plan.

Furthermore, I consider the Twins baseball writer community to be one of the most thorough and analytical groups of writers any fan base can have. Have we really stopped at that one name? Surely there are others the Twins could consider.

Let’s rectify that. We’re looking for an “ace”, and to me that means a workhorse that can strike guys out when he needs to. So let’s look at the top qualified starting pitchers in the majors by strikeout rate and see if we can find any guys that might be available. Since Greinke comes in at 38th on that list, we’ll look at the 37 guys who ranked higher than him this year. We’ll highlight and examine the guys who might make sense to chase.

1. Tim Lincecum (SF)
2. Jon Lester (BOS)
3. Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
Sorry, not for sale at any price. But seeing last night’s Game 1 World Series starter at the top of the list encourages me that we’re going about this the right way. If you’re wondering about Gallardo, Milwaukee has signed him to a long-term low-cost deal through 2014, so he’s not going anywhere.

4. Jonathan Sanchez (SF)
Nice. We identified Sanchez as a trade target in our TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, so it’s nice to see him here. Sanchez will be arbitration eligible this year, not that is a particularly large disincentive to San Francisco, who has deep pockets. But his control has been shaky, and his postseason performance in the NLCS even shakier. It’s a longshot, but tune into Game 3 on Saturday and root for him to lose his composure a bit more. It would be very nice to see him available on the trade market.

5. Francisco Liriano (MIN)
I’ll agree with you when you say “Liriano isn’t an ace,” but I’ll add the word “yet.” Nick wrote yesterday that signing him to a long-term deal should be a top priority this offseason, and I agree. But I’ll take it even further and say it’ll happen. It makes too much sense to both sides to do a 4-year/$40 million deal. I’ll be shocked if this isn’t announced in March.

6. Jered Weaver (LAA)
7. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
8. Mat Latos (SD)
9. Josh Johnson (FLA)
10. Cole Hamels (PHI)
11. Justin Verlander (DET)
12. Colby Lewis (TEX)
Yeah - you can’t have these guys. The name that surprises me most is Latos, but he’ll be very cheap for the Padres for a long time. The name above we hear the most is Johnson, but that’s just habit based on last year’s rumors. He’s now signed through 2013. His contract is a great model for a Liriano deal, by the way.

13. Ryan Dempster (CHC)
Well, he’s not cheap. He’ll likely be paid $27.5M over the next two years, he’s 33 years old and his control was a bit shaky last year. But he’s a #1 guy, posted a 3.85 ERA last year, and has a higher strikeout rate than King Felix. The Cubs don’t need to trade him – they have oodles of money – but that doesn’t mean he isn’t available. He’s just not cheap.

14. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
So sorry. He, like a lot of these guys on this list, is signed cheap for a long time, like through 2014.

Instead, focus on free agent pitcher Jorge de la Rosa from Colorado. He’s not on this list because he didn’t have enough innings last year, but he’s young, he can strike guys out, and he’s left-handed. He’ll also likely get a four or five year deal for $10+ million per year, so I’m not holding my breath. But this was my primary target in my offseason blueprint in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook.

15. Max Scherzer (DET)
16. Felix Hernandez (SEA)
17. Adam Wainwright (STL)
18. James Shields (TB)
19. Dan Haren (LAA)
Don’t count on it, sport. The one possible exception is Shields who put up great strikeout and walk numbers but gave up a ton of hits and ended up with a 5.10 ERA. But he’s cheap next year, and the Rays have options on years through 2014, so I expect they’ll give him a year to bounce back. But it’s not totally crazy to think they might shop him.

20. Wandy Rodriguez (HOU)
Hmm. Now THIS is a hidden ace. 3.60 ERA last year, along with 178 K – and those numbers are put up in Houston’s fairly small ballpark. This is his last year of arbitration (probably making about $9M), so he’ll be a free agent at this time next year. He is exactly the kind of guy that Houston probably should be trading, if not now, in July. In fact, it was rumored he was available at the last trade deadline.

The problem? Houston’s owner and management are…well, “eccentric” sounds so much better than “certifiably insane.” They might not trade him for any combination of players – or they might trade him for a box of vintage show tune albums. (Provided No No Nannette is included, of course.)

Trade Target: Cliff Pennington

In the TwinsCetric Offseason GM Handbook (there is still time for you to "preorder") you'll find dozens of pages of trade targets and free agents that the Twins could acquire. But in my blueprint, I parenthetically drop a name I'd like to watch, but that we didn't write about.

That player is shortstop Cliff Pennington of the Oakland Athletics, and I didn't profile him because I'm not sure the A's are likely trade candidates for the Twins. But he's worth looking over.

Pennington is intriguing because I was looking to add some middle infield speed to battle the Yankees. The 26-year-old stole 29 bases this year versus getting caught just five times, and it looks like he's two years away from arbitration. He was also very good defensively, or at least he was according to UZR; I don't remember his defense being particularly noticeable when the Twins played Oakland.

On the other hand, he has absolutely no power to speak of, with a career slugging percentage of .358 in the minors. Worse, this past year he hit just .250 and posted on on-base percentage of .319, driven by 96 strikeouts compared to 50 walks. Twins fans can't expect him to be anywhere near the offensive asset that JJ Hardy was. Or even that Alexi Casilla was. Shudder.

But his minor league numbers suggest he's better than that. He has almost as many walks (286) as strikeouts (297) in his minor league career. He also sports a career minor league on-base percentage of .362, and he's stolen bases at every level.

It's not clear if the A's really value that skill set or not, but they probably should, because they don't have a lot to replace it. There isn't a lot of good internal competition for shortstop within the A's organization, and the shortstop free agent market is brutal. My guess is that the A's will be in no hurry to move him.

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A quick (and very late heads up): you have plans tonight. I know, you thought you didn't because the World Series doesn't start until tomorrow, but there is baseball here in the Twins Cities. Tonight, at Bryant Lake Bowl, Salon Saloon is performing The Baseball Show. It includes some local baseball writing luminaries, such as Anne "BatGirl" Ursu and Peter Schilling, author of The End of Baseball. f you play your cards right, you can get your baseball fix AND get date points from the significant other for taking them to a show. Not that I would ever do anything that cynical.

And yes, The Voice of Reason(TM) and I will be in attendance, the baseball gods willing.

The Lantern Bearer: A Tribute To Paul Wellstone

Oiginally published 10/29/2002

A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And the world grew darker.

We react to the infinite realities the world holds in a straightforward way. We simplify it by choosing, consciously or not, which reality we care to embrace. But whichever illusion we choose can also constrain us and too often turns into a shadow that we dare not challenge.

How do people react to you when you leave a room? Do they laugh at you? Some might. Of course, some might admire you. And some won't like you and some will and some won't give you a second thought, one way or the other. Which illusion do you subscribe to? And how does that shadow world modify what you say or do before you leave the room? Illusions like that are everywhere. And are so all-encompassing as to be invisible, like water to a fish.

And then comes a Lantern Bearer, who holds up their light to the shadows and walks through them and takes us along. They remind us that we created these shadows, and that we can dispel them. We just have to pick up our lanterns, hold them out in front of us, and walk bravely forward.

Think your idea can never work? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think that which you care about cannot be achieved? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think you are alone in your passion? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy. The world has room for you, your energy, and your passion. Indeed, it desperately needs it.

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A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And the world grew darker.

Paul Wellstone's death left sizeable holes in our world in many ways. An election, uncompleted. A Senate, undecided. A movement, leaderless. A family, parentless.

But the largest hole might be spiritual. For a slice of my generation, he wasn't just someone who championed their political philosophy, but someone who reminded them of the joy and strength that flows from acting in a fundamentally moral way.

"I lost my Kennedy." one friend told his wife this weekend.

His believers flocked to the Twins Cities and followed him to Washington. They participated in a system that they otherwise might have disdained. And they watched him challenge the shadows.

Think an outsider can't change the system? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think voting your conscience will alienate you from the decision makers? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think a good man can't hold onto his convictions when clothed with the trappings of power? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

And then the believers started picking up their own lanterns.

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A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And it happened the way it always seems to with lantern bearers. Suddenly. Tragically. Too damn early.

And, of course, the world grew darker.

When a bright light is suddenly taken away, isn't that always when things are darkest? But that, too, is an illusion. Time passes, the eyes adjust, and one starts seeing the other sources of light.

Because this Lantern Bearer's light has spread throughout this generation. Some lantern bearers are trying to change how politics works. Some are ushering underprivileged kids into college. And if you look around, you'll find hundreds more have raised their own lanterns, found their own path, and chased their own shadows.

Is it still too dark? Sure. So maybe it's time you picked up your lantern.

Think your voice won't be heard? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think you're powerless? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think YOU can't make a difference? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And a thousand more Lantern Bearers strode forward.

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I attended Carleton College when Paul Wellstone was there, and even had a class with him. I skew considerably further right from him on the political spectrum, but I always respected him, and I always voted for him out of that respect. But mostly I respected his impact on my friends' lives. On the anniversary of his death, I'm rerunning this story was for them. Back to Twins tomorrow.