It looks like the Twins are trading JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris for two minor league pitchers, one of whom is in A-ball and one of whom has been hurt a lot over the last four years. The primary benefit is that it saves the Twins about $9M in money this year. And here’s the punchline:I like this deal.
I suspect I’m in the minority. I know I was on Twitter yesterday, when the rumored deal didn’t include Harris. But it’s unlikely that Harris was added to the deal by the Orioles; he was probably added by the Twins so they could get his $1.75M contract off the books.
Because, it’s still All About The Money.
The Twins still have a budget to meet, and this trade makes it increasingly likely that the budget went up 10-15% instead of 25-30%. This is why we question whether we should be overpaying for Matt Capps. Or whether or not we should sign a 35-year-old to a 3-year deal for $10M per year to be our sixth starting pitcher. They’re all nice luxuries to have, but they’re luxuries that cost money, and that money needs to come from somewhere.
Last night, the Twins confirmed that they could do without one of those luxuries. They Twins committed to making Alexi Casilla a starting middle infielder when they let Orlando Hudson go. In fact, I think they really committed to that sometime back in August.
And by the way, there were almost no complaints about this from the Twins faithful, which is one of the interesting subtexts about this trade. For all the people suddenly worrying about Casilla’s consistency as a starter because of the Hardy trade – where was that complaint two months ago? Because that’s how long he’s been a starter.
The Twins also committed to Tsuyoshi Nishioka when they bid $5M just to negotiate with him. That commitment isn’t formal yet – Nishioka hasn’t signed – but the organizational commitment is there. And that commitment is going to cost the Twins about $5M/year all told.
That meant the Twins had three starting infielders under and two positions to play them. That’s a nice problem to have, but it’s a luxury, and it’s a luxury that was costing the Twins about $9M ($7M for Hardy, $1.75M for Harris).
The trade isn’t about the players. The trade is (repeat after me) All About The Money and what that money can buy. The trade is about Hardy and Harris for Nishioka, two minor league pitchers and $3.5M to spend on another couple of relievers.
That’s the first thing I like about the deal. There’s more, but it comes at a price. And that price is losing Hardy.
JJ Hardy
Last year, as winter turned to spring, I graded the Twins offseason moves. There was only one A+:
Trading for JJ Hardy (Grade A+)
If Hardy goes belly up - and he's certainly gone belly up a couple of times in his career - then I'm dead wrong. But the Hardy move was almost the perfect way to start the offseason. The free agent market was stacked with second basemen and third basemen, but there was almost nothing at shortstop. Acquiring Hardy didn't just boost the lineup. More importantly, it gave the Twins the ability to sit back and let free agent prices come down. They did, and that's what made the Hudson and Thome signings possible.
Perhaps it was because the Hardy trade happened so early, or because it cost Twins fans the lovable Gremlin Carlos Gomez. But it seems like it was almost overlooked. It easily the most difficult of the offseason moves and I'll argue that it provided a solid basis for everything else the Twins did.
Hardy didn’t go belly up, though I think it’s fair to say he also didn’t meet expectations.
· His OPS was 714. If he would have had enough at-bats to qualify, that would’ve ranked 8th among major league shortstops. But, of course, he was hurt and ended up 125 plate appearances short of that qualification. So offensively…
· He “created” about 43 runs offensively. Among all shortstops, that was 29th in the majors.
· He compensated somewhat with his defense by saving an additional 8 runs over an average shortstop during the season. That ranked 5th in the majors. If you added those 8 runs to his runs created, the 51 runs would’ve boosted him to 23rd on the shortstop “runs created” list.
There are also a few other things that play into Hardy’s value:
· He’s young. He’s only 28 years old.
· He’s right-handed, something the Twins lineup needs.
· He’s not fast, and never will be, having stolen a total six bases in his entire career.
· He finished strong last year, with an OPS of 805 after the all-star break.
Finally, he battled ongoing injuries for the second straight year. I don’t want to apply inexact labels such as “injury prone” to players, so let’s be precise: in his professional career, going back to his first full professional year, he has averaged 104 games played. That’s exactly what he played last year with the Twins and their minor league teams. Over the last four years he’s had two unhealthy years preceded by two healthy years.
Add all that together and you get this: Hardy has not been a particularly good shortstop for the last two years, but there are indications he could be better than that in the future. Maybe not as good as he was in 2008 (89 runs created) or 2007 (85 runs created) but a lot better than the Brewers or Twins have seen this year.
That’s usually enough for the Twins to hang onto a guy. (See Rivas, Luis) The problem is that Hardy is going to get paid about $7M thanks to the arbitration process. That’s a bargain for 2007-8 Hardy. It’s expensive for 2009-10 Hardy. So his value is dependent on who you think 2011 Hardy is.
It is a myth that Hardy is exceptionally cheap for his salary. Hardy fans want to point out that Juan Uribe just signed for $7M/year, and he’s 31, hit .248, and resembles a fire hydrant. But Uribe also accounted for 20 extra runs of offense over what Hardy did last year, posted an OPS 36 points higher than Hardy, and had a positive impact defensively last year too (albeit at second base).
Hardy is a solid major league shortstop being paid a salary commensurate with a solid major league shortstop. He’s not a terrific bargain. Trading him away is not my favorite way of balancing the budget, but it’s not going to get an “F” in the next offseason grades.
The Minor League Pitchers
Even if the deal is mostly about the money, I also like the players the Twins got back in this trade. Or rather, the type of players the Twins got back in this trade. They are exactly what Twins fans have been pining for: intriguing arms.
The guy you’re most likely to see next year is James Hoey. The bad news is that he underwent shoulder surgery a couple of years back and has yet to have made it back to the major leagues. Shoulder surgery is often a death sentence for pitchers, as they never really get their power back.
However, it doesn’t look like that’s going to be a problem for Hoey. Last year between AA and AAA, he struck out 70 in 52.2 IP. That’s a stunningly high rate. On the other hand, he’s also walked a ton of batters, and that looks like it’s been a problem most of his career. I’m absolutely licking my chops to see what Rick Anderson and the Twins organization can do with this guy (and hoping the answer isn’t “bury him like Anthony Slama”).
The second name is Brett Jacobson, an who was the Orioles 4th round pick a couple of years ago. He also has the big strikeout numbers (67 in 71 IP) without the walks. People are concerned that he’s 24 years old and only in A-ball, but age isn’t as big of a concern for evaluating pitchers as hitters, and that’s especially true for relievers. We’ll know more about him when he hits AA ball next year, but he looks like the kind of arm the Twins have had success with.
So that’s why I like the deal: I like the money and what it’s going to be spent on. I like the players they got back. And while I don’t like parting with Hardy, I don’t think he was a particularly big bargain.
Posts
37 comments:
(Please feel free to delete if this is a double-post: I was getting error messages.) I think that a lot of the logic here is sound, but it's based on an entire galaxy of faulty assumptions and conclusions.
First, Hardy has been a lot better than you give him credit for. By basing the analysis on RC and fielding runs and then talking about the injury, you're basically triple-counting his injuries against him. When he was on the field last year, Hardy was one of the 2 or 3 best shortstops in the American League (which says as much about AL shortstops as it does about him, but he was nonetheless a productive player). Even only playing a touch over 100 games, he was easily worth the $7 million or so he'd make this year. It all depends on your definition of "bargain," but he would certainly cost them less than he'd be likely to give them.
Yeah, there's some chance he'll miss a big chunk of this year, as he did last year (though I think you're overstating that chance, and the "average games played" thing is awfully misleading). Also a decent chance he's just as healthy as he was in 2007-08. The injury concern is a good reason to get insurance for your underpriced starting shortstop, not to give him away for next to nothing.
But this is where, to me, this really goes off the rails:
And by the way, there were almost no complaints about this from the Twins faithful, which is one of the interesting subtexts about this trade. For all the people suddenly worrying about Casilla’s consistency as a starter because of the Hardy trade – where was that complaint two months ago? Because that’s how long he’s been a starter.
I don't tend to use words like "consistency," so maybe it's just about who you've been talking to, but it's impossible for me to believe that you really don't get why one might be comfortable (more or less) with Casilla playing second and terrified of him at short. He has very, very poor range and instincts, which are not things you want to see in a second baseman, but 2B is overrated as a defensive position, and those shortcomings can be more or less made up for if he hits anything like he did in 2010. On the other hand, shortstop is the most important defensive position on the diamond, and (obviously) is harder to play than 2B, at which Casilla already blows. One can only imagine (though apparently the Twins can't) how bad he'll be in a full season at short.
So it breaks down like this: Casilla2B/HardySS was just fine, probably only a slight dropoff from what they ran out there last year. Nishioka2B/HardySS had the potential to be one of the best middle infield combos in the majors. Nishioka2B/CasillaSS is...well, there's a lot of unknown there, but at least half of it looks a lot like a waking nightmare.
$7 million is just not a lot of money in baseball terms, even to the Twins. If you can't free it up any other way than trading your high-quality starting shortstop when you don't have any remotely competent alternatives, your problems probably run a hell of a lot deeper than just this.
Gotta agree with my friend Bill here. I think, in addition to underestimating Hardy's play in 2010 and going forward, you're completely misreading the reaction to Casilla moving to SS vs. playing 2B.
None of us thought that Hudson would be coming back to play 2B, and given the lack of alternatives I think Twins fans were resigned to seeing Casilla out there. As Bill points out, Casilla was likely to be a slight dropoff, but nothing the team couldn't overcome or replace midseason. But when the team surprisingly put in a play for Nishioka, the Twins had a chance to have an incredibly strong MI, if Nishioka hits and plays 2B as advertised.
Instead, by trading Hardy, the Twins have two big question marks in the middle infield, both offensively and defensively (since Nishioka is going to have to switch positions). There's potential to lose value at both positions, and given the moves made by the Sox this winter, the Twins don't have the luxury of assuming that risk.
Bill spent a lot of words, when only a few are necessary. This is a terrible trade, and it makes the Twins worse. Chicago and Detroit are getting better, and the Twins are getting worse. So far the team is completely ignoring the lessons of the playoffs: need more RH bats, and need starting pitching. Instead they are focusing on "speed up the middle". It's ridiculous. For any fan who believes the Twins organization really cares about winning a World Series, or at least a series in the playoffs, this trade should put those notions to rest. As a fan, it's really maddening. They don't want to spend $7 mil on Hardy, but they'll spend $8 on Capps and $5 JUST TO TALK TO A COMPLETELY UNPROVEN PLAYER? Somebody explain this madness to me. If it's All About The Money, John, why are they so willing to overspend in bizarre areas of non-need?
Just to address a few of the comments above:
1) If Casilla isn't a good SS, then move Nishioka there. He's a 2 time gold glove as a SS. He's not going to suck. But personally, I've always thought Casilla looked pretty good at SS.
2) Are the Twins going to get better this offseason? No. I swear to god I've been preaching this since July, but it has always been a trite dream to think this team was going to improve given the payroll picture. I've done everything but title the Handbook "Why Twins Fans Will Be Pissed This Offseason". Maybe I should have. They only have so many hard dollars to spend.
(But for the record, I also agree there were better ways to save money.)
If money wasn't a consideration - if these guys were baseball cards or just their performance - this is a terrible trade. But that's not the case, and IT ALMOST NEVER IS WITH A TWINS TRADE.
Finally, one thing I noticed in two comments is something I sense in a lot of opinions. Twins fans are pissed about this trade because of the order of events. They thought they were adding Nishioka, just like the Twins added players last year. So losing Hardy stings. But if the Twins would've announced on the day they won the rights to Nishioka, that they were trading Hardy and Harris for Nishioka, two minor league pitchers and a couple of relievers from the money they saved, people would be a lot happier about this deal.
So it's a terrible trade aside from the money-saving aspect, you agree that there are better ways to save money, but yet you like the trade? Does not compute.
Can't speak for most Twins fans, but no, I'd feel no different about it if the order were different. Swapping a known high-quality ML shortstop -- a 3-win player with upside -- for a guy we think might be Kaz Matsui or Ichiro or something in between is just not a good idea. Especially when the consensus (and one the Twins clearly agree with) is that he can't play shortstop in the majors ("Gold Gloves" and all), so you're still leaving yourself without a starting SS.
John, no, I was not happy to learn that the "cash-strapped" Twins were spending $5 mil to spend another $10 mil on a completely unknown commodity nobody had ever heard of to replace a terrific fielding and decent hitting 2B. They spent more money to replace a better player (Hudson). Hardy/Nishi would have been alright, I suppose. Now we learn that not only are we worse at 2B, we're going to be much worse at SS by replacing Hardy with Casila, whose natural position is 2B.
If this was in essence a Hardy/Nishi swap done purely for money reasons, than why are they going to end up spending more this year on Nishi than they would have with Hardy? It makes absolutely zero sense. Casila for Hudson to save cash makes sense. Nishi for Hardy to save cash does not, because they don't save cash, they actually pay more.
Easily the most baffling trade I've ever heard of.
So the way I figure it...
$9 million saved by trading Hardy and Harris (thank god that contract is off our books);
$5 million (potentially) spent on Nishioka;
that nets us ~$4 million.
Sounds like a fair pay day for one James Thome if you ask me.
Also, I would argue Casilla looked good out in the field this past year (although he played mostly 2b and there isn't enough of a sample to argue for it). I don't feel like the trade is as much of a dooms day proclamation as many think it is. I am excited to see what this brings.
And the Twins made an aboslute killing on Target Field last year, more than they ever imagined. There's no reason their payroll shouldn't increase. And there are smart ways to spend money, and dumb ways. It may been unrealistic to think the Twins will get remarkably better this offseason, but the FO seems content or even dead set on getting worse. And the FO has only themselves to blame - no one held a gun to their head forcing them to give Cuddyer a $11 mil contract or tender Matt F*&@ing Capps an $8 mil contract or give Nick "Non-Sinking Sinkerballer" Blackburn a long term deal. They're in this mess because of their own poor decisions. Like always, Twins fans want to give them a pass for this. And so we make excuses for them time and time again. Quit making excuses. This is a terrible, terrible, terrible trade. No excuses. It's terrible, and a sad day to be a Twins fan.
Ryan, remember, they paid $5 mil JUST TO TALK TO NISHI. They will end up paying him another 3-4 mil in salary. So the trade just about nets out to 0 dollar-wise. Talent wise, it aint even close.
That's right, folks: the Twins downgraded both middle infield positions and don't have a penny to show for it.
How can any GM be allowed to do this and keep his job?
If Casilla isn't a good SS, then move Nishioka there. He's a 2 time gold glove as a SS. He's not going to suck. But personally, I've always thought Casilla looked pretty good at SS.
Nishioka has won one gold glove at SS in Japan, and another at second base.
also, I'm pretty confused why you would use a Japanese League gold glove award, of all things, to justify Nishioka's legitimacy as a Major League shortstop. I know there really isn't anything else to go on, but we just don't know how his defense is going to translate. Kaz matsui won four gold gloves at shortstop in Japan, yet he became a rather ordinary second baseman over here.
Why Twins Fans Will Be Pissed This Offseason
Haha! Before any of the Orioles talk surfaced, I was confident Twins fans were going to show their twitter-rage if a deal went down. Hardy has the same hold over Twins fans that Kubel does when it comes to overlooking flaws.
I'm just as confident this reaction is going to look silly a year from now.
Sorry, but trading an above average, proven MLB player at a premium defensive position for 2 minor league players at perhaps the most replaceable position in baseball (and the only position in our entire minor league system where we have something resembling depth) is going to look just as godawful, if not much, much, worse, a year from now as it does now.
Sorry, but trading an above average, proven MLB player at a premium defensive position for 2 minor league players at perhaps the most replaceable position in baseball (and the only position in our entire minor league system where we have something resembling depth) is going to look just as godawful, if not much, much, worse, a year from now as it does now.
You're right, it didn't take a year for the hyperbole to look silly. The mob mentality on the internet when something like this happens is just funny. Read the article again - maybe take some time to calm down first.
People must be looking at fielding stats, because Casilla has better range and, physically, is a better defensive shortstop than Hardy. He's also younger. The real question is whether he has matured enough to eliminate the mental errors that drive Gardy nuts.
Hardy is not a great shortstop. He is a mediocre shortstop, when healthy and playing well. Although I agree, some of the stats Geek sites are a bit misleading. Casilla should be an upgrade on defense and,with his speed, I much prefer him batting ninth to Hardy. And it makes the Twins younger, which is always a good thing if you can do it while maintaining performance.
$7 million is a LOT of money in any business. People get fooled by all the big numbers that get thrown around, but even with a $125 million payroll, $7 million is going to be an above average salary. And the relationship between salary and performance is not even remotely linear. Paying an average player an average, much less above average, salary doesn't work. You are overpaying.
We've got two Bills now. But anyway, TT:
1. Your assessments of the players' defensive abilities here are just completely wrong. Hardy is one of the best defensive shortstops in the league, and there's no real evidence Casilla can play there at all (he's awful at 2B, so it seems unlikely). Footspeed isn't range. Defensive stats are flawed in general, but when all of them universally point the same way, you're best off listening (you can see the difference between these two guys pretty easily with your eyes too, though, IMO).
2. Speed is nice, kind of, but Hardy is better than Casilla in every other way, and speed takes a back seat to all those other ways. And if you think Casilla is going to be batting ninth, or anywhere other than second, you haven't been paying much attention these last nine years.
3. Yeah, it makes them less than two years younger. If they had any hope at all of "maintaining performance," that would be a moderately good thing.
4. Your salary reasoning is hopelessly flawed as well. $7 million is NOT a lot of money to a baseball team (or "to any business"). It just isn't. And it's well below the going rate for a comfortably above-average starting shortstop, which is what Hardy is.
The analysis here is pretty spot-on: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-j-j-hardy-trade-minnesotas-side/
Frustrated in Foley:
The $5 million posting is figured into a contract of $5-6 million per year over a course of 3 years (or however long the contract might be). In other words, we pay Nishioka $3-4 million per year plus $1.6m added to pay the posting fee, its a max of $6 million per year for him. Teams generally don't pay a posting fee in one year. Japan is nice about that.
By my calculations, that leaves a few million in the bank. It at least helps.
I agree, however, that we could have gotten a little more than 2 OK relievers.
Anon, what part of my post is hyperbole? Do you disagree that JJ is above average at his position? Do you disagree that SS is a premium defensive position? Do you disagree that the players they traded for are minor league relievers? Do you disagree that the Twins have some bullpen arms at AAA? Those are all facts, so I'm not sure where the hyperbole comes into play.
People must be looking at fielding stats, because Casilla has better range and, physically, is a better defensive shortstop than Hardy.
On what do you base this?
Also, pardon me if I'm mistaken, but this statement sounds like yet another tiresome, vacuous attack against advanced defensive metrics.
TT, have you ever actually seen JJ Hardy and Alexi Casila play baseball? I think you have them confused. You have to be the only person who's ever seen them both play to come away with the opinion that AC is a better SS than JJ.
The collective aneurysm the Twins blogosphere is experiencing over this.
And yes, I'm going to categorize "worse than godawful" as hyperbole.
And not saying there's no place for advanced metrics or anything, but there's definitely a hint of an emperor's new clothes effect the way most people use them. Hardy has better UZR numbers than Casilla, therefore he can get to more balls. That's not what it tells you. Anyone who actually watches them play should be able to tell you that Casilla has the physical ability to get to more balls. What he hasn't shown is the ability to consistently make the plays in his zone. What TT is saying is that if he can tackle the cerebral part, he has the potential to be the better defensive player - because he already has the physical tools.
"Defensive stats are flawed in general, but when all of them universally point the same way, you're best off listening (you can see the difference between these two guys pretty easily with your eyes too, though, IMO)."
But is your (or my) opinion really worth anything? Unless we watch players in person every day, as fans we are usually responding to a very limited set of data provided by seeing a handful of games in person or completely distorted by TV. In any case, my opinion is different.
As for defensive stats, it doesn't much matter how many ways you count the same thing if its the wrong thing. In the case of defensive statistics, there is nothing to count that answers the question you claim to be asking - who is the better shortstop.
Moreover, not every defensive stat points toward Hardy being better. Casilla had assists in 12.17% of the outs while he was at shortstop, Hardy had assists in 11.22%. And, while Hardy got more putouts, Casilla still got to more balls as a percentage of the outs the team made. Does this prove anything? No. Except that defensive stats don't really prove anything.
I'm sorry but if you think Hardy is a "luxury," you must have forgotten the motley crew of shortstops that paraded through the Metrodome.
"And if you think Casilla is going to be batting ninth, or anywhere other than second, you haven't been paying much attention these last nine years."
I think the Japanese Baseball batting champion is going to batting second. But either way, its a better fit than Hardy batting ninth.
"our salary reasoning is hopelessly flawed as well. $7 million is NOT a lot of money to a baseball team (or "to any business"). It just isn't. And it's well below the going rate for a comfortably above-average starting shortstop, which is what Hardy is."
First, Hardy hasn't been comfortably above average the last two years or anything close to it. Second, there isn't a "going rate" for shortstops or any other position except in the free agent market. The comparison is to Casilla, not some imaginary player who isn't available to the Twins.
If you consider the current Twins payroll and budget, $7 million is probably close to half of what they have available next year beyond the commitments they have already made, including likely arbitration awards. That is a LOT of money.
Its funny, Capps is likely going to get less than $7 million and all sorts of people seem to be upset about that. Despite the fact that he is one of only two pitchers the Twins can really count on to be in the bullpen next season. Mijares is the other. Nathan is still only a probable. And there is absolutely no way that they can replace Capps for less than that.
Casilla still got to more balls as a percentage of the outs the team made. Does this prove anything? No. Except that defensive stats don't really prove anything.
It doesn't do anything of the sort. Showing that UZR, et al, is contradicted by an off-the-cuff stat like assists\game and then concluding that advanced defensive metrics are meaningless is exactly vacuous.
I'm a strong disbeliever in defensive metrics. I pay them no never mind.
But I'll take Hardy over Casilla at SS every day of the week.
But either way, its a better fit than Hardy batting ninth.
Casilla has 1073 ML PAs and has put up a .249/.306/.327 line.
Hardy's career: .263/.323/.423. In Hardy's worst offensive season he put up better numbers than Casilla's career line.
In what world is a worse hitter 'a better fit' for ANY lineup position?
If Casilla isn't a good SS, then move Nishioka there.
Pretty glib dismissal of a valid concern, Geek. "Just move the problem around."
"It doesn't do anything of the sort. Showing that UZR, et al, is contradicted by an off-the-cuff stat like assists\game and then concluding that advanced defensive metrics are meaningless is exactly vacuous."
Its funny how people who advocate "advanced defensive metrics" can't recognize them without the label. RF/9 innings is Assists+Outs/Innings pitched. Which is exactly what I described. You can find it on Baseball Reference.
Vacuous is using statistics you don't understand and can't explain. Its not clear what, if anything, UZR measures. The fact that you can calculate it doesn't mean it accurately measures anything.
Using career stats to compare Casilla and Hardy is completely inappropriate. First, because Casilla is two years younger and hopefully still improving. And, second, because Hardy's production has not approached his career average the last two seasons. C
Casilla's OBP percentage last year was higher than Hardy has achieved in all but one season and almost 20 points higher than either of the last two years. And he is obviously a lot faster once he gets on base. That is a much better fit in the number nine spot.
John, among all the twins apologists in town, you're a pretty mild offender, but in the comments here you are very quick to point out the Twins salary difficulty this offseason and almost happy to report you knew it was coming. What you fail to address is that the reason the Twins find themselves in this salary mess is completely, 100% their fault. They doled out terrible contracts to Cuddyer, Blackburn, etc. They invested $20 million in "closers". They signed Joe to a long term deal but promised they'd still be able to field a good team around him because of Target Field. And they have drafted so poorly that they do not have cheap solutions waiting in the minors.
When are people in this town going to remove the blinders and realize that this team is far from the "model organization" we'd love to think it is? Just like there's still a national perception that the Twins "do the little things right", while those who have watched the team for the last couple years understands that this is simply not true anymore.
They are no longer a small market team. So how do they deal with the new payroll flexibility? By spending a ton of unnecessary money in the 1st year of "large market" classification to so cripple the organization THE VERY NEXT YEAR that they are forced to dump one of the best players in the league at a premium position FOR NOTHING.
Their money problems this offseason are completely the Twins' fault. Now those front office financial mistakes are starting to rear their ugly head on the field. It appears We simply do not have the organizational savvy to be anything but a small market team. But the excuses for this team are really starting to get old.
Let's call a spade a spade: the team screwed itself financially, and they are now forced to screw itself competitively.
They signed Joe to a long term deal but promised they'd still be able to field a good team around him because of Target Field.
They are a good team. Better than good even. WTF are you talking about?
"When are people in this town going to remove the blinders and realize that this team is far from the "model organization" we'd love to think it is?"
Probably as soon as they start losing. Which hasn't happened very often in the last decade. Which in baseball is actually pretty remarkable for any organization.
"they are forced to dump one of the best players in the league at a premium position FOR NOTHING. "
That is true fantasy baseball. The teams going after Hardy were not exactly the elite teams in the league. The Yankees were not knocking at the door.
Anon, I'm talking about the fact that it's Year 1 of Joe's big deal and already they are cutting payroll. Year 1! They were good last year; they will not be as good this year, and their competition will be a lot better.
So TT, that "losing" you are talking about might start happening quicker than you seem to think. But guys like you will continue to make excuses for the losing - payroll, injuries, damn Yankees, etc. The same old song and dance.
Look, it took Wild fans 9 years to admit there were problems with their so called "model organization" and stop selling out their revered stadium - and now that team is probably 5 years away from competing again. That's what happens when fans make excuses for things and front offices fail to address any real issues.
The way Twins fan are, I wonder if it won't take even longer with the Twins.
Anon, I'm talking about the fact that it's Year 1 of Joe's big deal and already they are cutting payroll.
What was the opening day payroll for 2010? What was the opening day payroll for 2011?
I like JJ Hardy, and I would like him on the team. But nearly every negative reaction I've seen has been rediculous. The sky is not falling.
Its funny how people who advocate "advanced defensive metrics" can't recognize them without the label. RF/9 innings is Assists+Outs/Innings pitched. Which is exactly what I described. You can find it on Baseball Reference.
A) "range factor/9" and "assists/outs" (the latter is actually what you have used, not RF) are not the same thing. And niether is an "Advanced Defensive metric". B) you are utilizing a canard in your attempt to discredit my statement. I know exactly what you were talking about and what UZR tries to measure.
Vacuous is using statistics you don't understand and can't explain. Its not clear what, if anything, UZR measures. The fact that you can calculate it doesn't mean it accurately measures anything.
So, its not clear to you what UZR tries to measure, yet you rail against it and attempt to obfusciate it with non-advanced metrics as a reason to ignore advanced defensive metrics as a whole. got it. that's exactly "vacuous".
Anon, I meant to say cutting salary. My mistake. The JJ Hardy move is a salary dump which makes the Twins worse. So-called contenders don't do this.
You are correct in that their opening day payroll will increase. But since we will never know how much revenue the Twins made from TF last year, we will never know if the payroll is consistent with the "50% of revenue" they always talk about, or if a lot of the TF money will go right into their pockets. All we know is that TF made them more money than they had even optimistically imagined. And we can be sure they won't spend MORE than they absolutely need to, because as the Hardy move indicates, they are much more interested in the bottom line than winning. Again, if they were interested in winning, they wouldn't have downgraded both middle infield positions to save a measly couple million for one season, particularly when they have so much money coming off the books next year.
Ed. Dude. The time has come to stop calling the Twins cheap. Makes ya look silly. It's a pretty big payroll. They're paying the guys they want to keep around. I know you missed out on bitching about Mauer leaving, but that doesn't mean you have to compensate now.
When did I call the Twins cheap? Putting words in my mouth makes you look silly. Then again you don't have the courage to sign your name to your cheap shots, so I guess you win.
Denard Span doesn't have the range to play centerfield
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