How To Beat The Yankees?

I'm a romanticist, and like to think that heart and character have a place in winning championships. It makes for a better narrative and a better life lesson, and it's one of the reasons I watch.

But I think you'll grant me that character isn't the whole story. There is an element of practical gamesmanship too. We might remember David beating Goliath because of the great courage he showed. But it's also because the weaker party only pulls that sort of thing off every few thousand years. Gamesmanship wins.

I'm also a statistician, so I recognize that luck plays a part in championships, too. But 12 straight playoff losses? That's ridiculous. Do you know what the odds are of a flipping a coin and having come up "loser" 12 times in a row? I don't either, but I know it's significantly beyond "unlucky."

And so I'm back at gamesmanship. In the ALCS, the Yankees were who we thought they were. They have two very good left-handed starters - and not a lot else. They have a lineup that struggles against good left-handed pitching. A catcher that can't shut down the base paths. And a bullpen that can be exposed.

From a gamesmanship and matchup standpoint, the Rangers were a perfect fit to play and defeat that team. Almost their whole lineup is right-handed. They have an experienced ace left-handed starter and another very good one. They have plenty of speed - and somewhat reckless speed at that. And they showed an ability to wear down the starting pitchers.

The Twins aren't too far away from that. They're never going to have a predominantly right-handed hitting lineup with key players like Span, Morneau and Mauer in it, but there is no reason to not look at filling the rest of the lineup with right-handed bats, especially at DH. They already have one ace left-hander in Liriano who can work on his experience and his stamina. Adding another really good left-hander isn't impossible with names like Jorge de la Rosa, Wandy Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez and Jon Niese out there.

But the gamesmanship isn’t just about getting new names. There are things the coaching staff can do, too. Like working on some aggressive baserunning. Listen, teams shouldn't work on stealing bases to give their team a tremendous edge over the 162-game season. They should steal bases to give them an additional weapon to use against select teams in the playoffs. So let's work on stealing - especially against left-handed pitching.

Finally, I'll point out again that the two home game the Twins lost, they lost when their starting pitcher tired in the 6th and 7th innings. They lost them when their starters were approaching the 100-pitch mark. So, given that the Twins starters arms are getting a little older and given that there is no statistical study (despite a ton of attempts) to show that the 100-pitch barrier has any relation to injuries, how about working during the season to stretch these guys out a bit? How about letting the opposing team decide when our pitcher is done - like they've done in the postseason?

The Twins are beyond the point where they need to worry about just creating the "best team." They routed their division opponents last year and clinched earlier than anyone else in major league baseball. It's time to switch the focus from the regular season to the postseason, and from overall excellence to strategic gamesmanship. Design a team that can matchup well with other likely postseason teams. Especially the Yankees.

It's a riskier course, but after 12 straight losses, it might be time to take a different path.

My Offseason Blueprint

“Keep your feet on the ground, but keep reaching for the stars.”

– Casey Kasem, American Top 40

Shaggy’s sage advice is easier said than done, but the Minnesota Twins this year are going to need to do both. On the one hand, they face a payroll situation that likely means disassembling the team they have, let alone adding players. On the other, they have a fan base (not to mention people in their own organization) that expects significant upgrades to overcome their futility in the playoffs.

The reality probably is that they can’t do both, and maybe shouldn’t take the risks that come with trying to do both. The AL Central is going to be less, not more, competitive next year. The White Sox and Tigers are retooling and the Royals and Indians are at least another year away. Also, the Twins payroll situation loosens up to the tune of $23M in 2012 when Michael Cuddyer’s and Joe Nathan’s contracts come off the books.

So the sage thing to do is probably stay the course for one year, and that’s what I expect the Twins will do. I think they’ll offer arbitration to Carl Pavano, who I think will accept it. They’ll negotiate a multi-year deal with Matt Capps that will keep them from overpaying him in arbitration. They’ll re-sign or bring in some cheaper relievers and a veteran right-handed bench bat like Fernando Tatis. They might trade one of their young starters (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey or Brian Duensing) for a decent, affordable, middle infielder. And, of course, they’ll re-sign Nick Punto as a utility player or maybe shortstop.

They will wave goodbye to Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy, Brian Fuentes, Jesse Crain and (sigh) Jim Thome. They will also wave goodbye to a considerable amount of good will that was generated by the first year in Target Field. But that good will should return when they once again win the AL Central – and hope they don’t face the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs. This is a sage, risk-adverse, and probably successful strategy.

I, however, am not sage.

I also don’t need to be risk-adverse, since I’m just (virtually) flapping my gums. And I really, really, REALLY dislike the Yankees. Really. So I’m going to go in another direction.

The Yankees faults are well documented. To beat them a team needs left-handed pitching, preferably powerful. It needs big right-handed bats, especially if they add Cliff Lee to their pitching arsenal. It helps to be patient, since it allows a team to antagonize a fairly thin bullpen. And a team would love to have some speed.

This free agent market has some opportunities. The first baseman market is chock full of talent. There are a lot of relievers who are attractive. There are quite a few sluggers with bad gloves. And even the starting pitcher market has several workhorses.

We’re going to try and take advantage of those and acquire a couple of pieces to make beating the Yankees a reality and make my fan base (and clubhouse) happy. And we’re going to try and keep the tab under $18 million ($110 million total), so it keeps my bosses happy.

1. Sign LHP Jorge de la Rosa to a 4 year/$44M contract. Don’t offer Carl Pavano arbitration. Trade away Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey.

It’s unusual to have such a good fit as de la Rosa on the free agent market, so I’m paying up and taking on the risk of a four-year contract. He’s young, he can strike guys out and he’s left-handed. He’s also a little wild, but I’ll trust Rick Anderson to help him with that. (I’m trusting Rick Anderson to help with a lot of stuff, you’ll soon see.)

Affording de la Rosa means bidding Pavano adieu. I disagree with the rest of the TwinsCentric crew on offering Pavano arbitration. I don’t think that I could offer him arbitration because he might take it rather than face the market with that Type A loadstone tied around his neck. If he accepts it, I’m already over my whole budget, and I have more to buy.

That gives me six starting pitchers, which I would normally love, but I need to unload some salary. So I need to trade away Baker(-$5M), Blackburn(-$3M) or Slowey(-$3). I don’t really care which one, so long as I get back some speed, preferably from a middle infield spot. (Is Oakland SS Cliff Pennington available?)

(BTW, I don’t rule out trading away Brian Duensing instead. It doesn’t save me any money, but for the right return, I figure something else out. He might really be overvalued by other teams right now given he early success, and he’s left-handed.)

2. Sign Derrek Lee to a 2 year/$14M contract.
There’s my right-handed bat and my insurance policy if Morneau doesn’t come back, since Lee is an exceptional glove man. He wasn’t good last year, but he’s only 35 and I’m hoping that was a fluke. It raises the sticky question of which guy is the first baseman if Morneau is better, since they both are very good, but I’ll let my manager work that out.

If I can’t get Lee, this is a banner year for big right-handed bats, provided you don’t care if they DH. Paul Konerko, Jayson Werth, Magglio Ordonez, Vladamir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Pat Burrell are all out there. I suppose you could stick Jorge Cantu and Troy Glaus in there, too. I settled on Lee because I expect him to be the guy who is the cheapest of those premier guys. This is an area in which one stretches the extra million or so if necessary.

To make room, both in the lineup and on the books, I trade away Jason Kubel (-$5.25M). Actually, I would listen to offers for Michael Cuddyer (-$10.5M) or Delmon Young (~$5M) but I’d like to retain their right-handed bats, so I’m mostly shopping Kubel. I’m flexible as to what I get back, but a fast middle infielder or some power middle relief pitching would be nice.

3. Say goodbye to Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy, Jim Thome, Brian Fuentes, Matt Capps, and Jon Rauch. Possibly Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier.

I can’t afford them, so it’s fairly easy, but dumping all those relievers with the save statistic has an ancillary benefit too – it make a ridiculously talented reliever free agent market even deeper.

As for the middle infield, Alexi Casilla is getting one of the middle infield spots and I’m either hoping to get a decent middle infielder back in one of my trades or even re-sign Nick Punto. I’ve unquestionably hurt my infield defense, which isn’t the best strategy with de la Rosa coming on board, but I’ve also improved my speed. Casilla and Punto can both be aggressive on the base paths.

4. Sign at least two power bullpen arms from this list: Grant Balfour ($3.75M), Joaquin Benoit ($3.6M), Jason Frasor ($3M), JJ Putz ($3M), Jeremy Affeldt ($3M) or Frank Francisco ($3M).

I cannot believe how deep this middle relief market is this year. I’ve never seen anything like it. There are power arms everywhere. What’s more, the relief pitching market tends to value saves, making guys like Fuentes, Capps and Rauch valuable, while some of these guys fly under the radar. I’d like nothing better than to load up my team with these arms and let Rick Anderson work his magic.

I’m not gonna lie – I’m giddy about this. I wouldn’t necessarily stop at two - I’d sign as many of them as I could afford. This is the offseason I set up my bullpen for the next three years.

How many can I afford? Let’s see. I added $11M with de la Rosa, subtracted at least $3M by trading away one of my young starters. I added $7.5M with Lee and subtracted $5.25 with Kubel. All told, I’ve spent $10.25M of $18M, leaving me $7.75M. I’ll assume I can get two of these guys for $7M and hope the guys I get back in the trades aren’t arbitration eligible yet.

Let’s see how things look:

Lineup
Denard Span (LH)
Alexi Casilla (SH)
Joe Mauer (LH)
Derek Lee (RH)
Justin Morneau (LH)
Delmon Young (RH)
Michael Cuddyer (RH)
Danny Valencia (RH)
Nick Punto/Other (SH)

Rotation
Francicso Liriano (LH)
Jorge de la Rosa (LH)
Scott Baker (RH)
Nick Blackburn (RH)
Brian Duensing (LH)

Bullpen
Joaquin Benoit?
Frank Francisco?
Joe Nathan
Jose Mijares
Pat Neshek
Jeff Manship/Glen Perkins

That looks like a right-handed leaning lineup that can make the Yankees southpaws work a bit, as well as provide a little speed. I have a couple of tough left-handers at the top of the rotation. And I have the power arms I need in the bullpen.

But I"ve kept the team within a pretty restrictive fiscal limit. It takes advantage of a couple of market surpluses. And, finally, I think there is enough depth to handle the challenges an AL Central race inevitably throws at a team.

Stars? Check. Ground? Check. I think Casey would be proud.

The Offseason Begins!

The day after the World Series, a new baseball season begins - the offseason. It's a second season, and it demands it's own Annual.

Here it is.

The TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook allows you to treat the Twins like your own fantasy team, but within real world parameters. This $9.95 e-book will give you everything you need to enjoy the offseason almost as much as the real season:
- What free agents are available?
- Who can the Twins afford to bring back?
- Who are to trade targets?
- What can Twins fans expect from the farm system?

Last year's book identified place JJ Hardy on the top of the Twins trading wish list and Orlando Hudson as a top free agent target. This year's 95-page e-book is even better, giving you the chance to develop you own blueprint and competitive reports on what the other AL Central rivals are up to. It's less than the cost of a dog and a beer, and it will last you all offseason. Just click on the button to add it to your shopping cart and receive it almost immediately!

This year's version includes a foreword by KSTP's Joe Schmit, and is the in-depth analysis that the Minnesota media relies on and values. Just ask them!

"If you want the best data for playing along with the Twins front office, what you really need to do is order the soon-to-be-released 'Off-Season GM Handbook' by the TwinsCentric crew. It's 30,000-plus words about all the issues that will go into shaping the Twins in 2011 and beyond. It's on my list of the Top 10 things you can buy for under $10, right up there with the Kramarczuk's sausage at Target Field."

- Howard Sinker, editor, StarTribune.com

"The book sets out practical, realistic assessments of what the organization has, what it needs, and where and how it might fill those needs. There are no 'trade Nick Blackburn even up for Felix Hernandez' pipedreams here."

- Ed Thoma, Mankato Free Press

"I also look forward to reading the 2010-2011 TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. I followed the TwinsCentric crew long before they joined the Star Tribune's blogging army and their exhaustive work continues to impress me."

- Joe Christensen, Star-Tribune beat reporter

"John Bonnes' kid goes to school with my kid, and my Target Field seats are next to his seats, so trust me when I say he can't shut up about this stuff."

- David Brauer, MinnPost

Right about now is when someone asks about a paper version. And unfortunately, it's also when I explain why it won't be available in as a paper book. The reason? It just plain has too much information in it to print at a reasonable price level. I'm sorry.

Last year we offered both, sold the paper version at a LOSS - and still sold 10 times the number of ebooks as hard copies. It also ends up being considerably more work as the retailers require reformatting for it to work on paper. Instead, we're looking into sites where you can turn the e-book into a paper book for those who don't mind the extra cost. Again, I'm sorry, but we can't offer it.

The good news? You get it almost immediately after you order it, and since most smartphones support the pdf format it is in, you'll have it at your fingertips all offseason. Provided, of course, you buy it....

Still not convinced? Well, we're so sure you'll like it that we'll give you your money back if you don't. Just email us at TwinsCentric@gmail.com and I will make sure to get your money refunded. Give it a shot.

We'll be back tomorrow with more Twins offseason coverage. Hope you can stop by.

Hidden Aces (Part II)

When we last joined our intrepid blogger, he was researching the word "intrepid." Shortly thereafter, he started looking for "aces" beyond Zach Greinke that the Twins could target this offseason. (You can see Part 2 below.) So he was counting down the qualified starting pitchers with the highest strikeout rates and highlighting the ones that might be available. We were up to #21......

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21. Roy Oswalt (PHI)

22. David Price (TB)

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23. Chad Billingsley (LAD)

Another good name to have handy when someone won’t shut up about Greinke. Billingsley struck out 171 guys this year, had a 3.57 ERA and only gave up 8 home runs. He’s also just 26 years old, and has two years of arbitration left – but he’ll still be fairly expensive this year, probably in the neighborhood of $7M. Normally, that wouldn’t phase the Dodgers, but with the franchise hanging in the crosshairs of that divorce, anything is possible right now.

24. Roy Halladay (PHI)

25. Cliff Lee (TEX)

Ha! Unless you have a time machine and can go back to last offseason. (Hold it – you do? Can I borrow it?)

26. Scott Baker (MIN)

Really? Hold it. Really?

This deserves some comment, but I’m a little stunned. Let me digest this a bit.

27. Ian Kennedy (ARI)

28. Edwin Jackson (CHW)

29. Ted Lilly (CHC/LAD)

Never gonna happen my friend. I think that Jackson is going to be traded somewhere this offseason, just so the White Sox can get his $8.35M salary off their books. After all, he was never supposed to be with them in the first place. The only reason they traded for him was because they thought they were going to trade him to the Nationals. But I can’t see any way they trade him to the Twins.

30. Tommy Hanson (ATL)

31. Jonathon Niese (NYM)

32. Gio Gonzalez (OAK)

33. Shaun Marcum (TOR)

I suppose Hanson (3.33 ERA, 173 K) could be available, but he’s gonna cost you. He is within two years of free agency, and his agent is Scott Boras, so maybe the Braves would be interested in moving him, but it would be a significant deal.

That goes for the next two guys, too. I could see the Mets letting go of Niese(4.20 ERA, 148 K) for some offense. Ditto the Athletics and Gio Gonzalez (3.23 ERA, 171 K). They’re also both left-handed. I’d mark both off-limits if their respective teams weren’t so flawed.

Finally, Marcum(3.64 ERA, 165K) will be in his second year following Tommy John surgery and is two years from free agency. The Jays are already getting excited about their young rotation, so he might be available in the right deal. I would think high upside prospects would be especially tasty bait, so they can follow the path the Rays have tread.

Are they aces? Gio is probably the closest, but I’m encouraged that we haven’t even got to the next four names, all of whom are generally regarded as aces or still playing in the postseason.

34. C.J. Wilson (TEX)

35. CC Sabathia (NYY)

36. Ricky Romero (TOR)

37. Phil Hughes (NYY)

Save your breath. Romero is signed through 2015. I wouldn’t be shocked if Hughes is made available, just because it would be a classic Yankees overreaction to unload him after his last playoff performance. But you’re trying to get an ace to beat the Yankees. Do you really think Hughes is that guy?

38. Zack Greinke (KC)

The 27-year-old Greinke didn’t have a down year just because he was on a cruddy team. He just wasn’t fantastic. His ERA was 4.17 almost two full runs over last year’s. He was in the top 10 in strikeout rate last year, and 38^th this year. He was very, very good, but he wasn't an ace this year. He’s also thrown a lot of innings over the last two years. Was it just a down year that he’ll surely bounce back from, or would the Twins be trading for past performance?

I’m betting it was just a down year, but that doesn’t mean he should be the only guy considered. The next time someone tells you the Twins have to trade for Greinkie, here are some names to have handy: Wandy Rodriguez, Chad Billingsly, and Shaun Marcum. Maybe it'll get them past the Greinke mantra.

Ok – back to Scott Baker.

First, I should point out that he had the second highest ERA of anyone on this list, second to Jamie Shields. But it’s also worth noting that his strikeout rate and walk rate this year were very, very good. He just gave up too many damn hits. Oh, and led the league in slumped shoulders.

It turns out I could say the same thing about Jamie Shields (#18 yesterday), and I’m fairly confident Shields will bounce back. Would other teams be saying that about Baker? Are they wrong, or would a little distance give us a better perspective? And how much did the elbow problems, on which he had surgery immediately following the season, play into things?

This whole exercise is making me wonder if he is a very good candidate to have that breakout year we’ve been waiting for. He just turned 29 years old. His career strikeout rate is over 7 per nine innings. His walk rate is close to 2 per nine innings. His hit rate was below 1 per inning for the last two years. He is exactly the kind of sneaky good struggling pitcher that I would target just looking at his stats. Oh, plus, he’s relatively cheap.

That doesn’t mean he belongs on a list of possible aces. But he’s exactly the kind of sleeper that suddenly breaks through and everyone looks back and wonders how they didn’t see it coming. Shouldn’t we know better? Didn’t we just go through this with Liriano?

Before today I wouldn’t have given two cares about whether Baker got traded away this offseason. Now, I’d love to see him stick around, because I want to see what kind of year he has. I suspect I’m going to want to see it happen with him as a Twin.

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Did you know there is such a thing as a blogging scholarship? Apparently there is, and one of the Twins own bloggers, Andrew Bryz-Gornia of Off The Mark, is a finalist for it. I've met Andrew several times over the last year, and I came away with the distinct impression that he is worth exactly $10,000. But I don't really want to pay him that with my own money, so could you please help me vote him to victory? Just click here and vote for him. Thanks.

Seth has been examining the multitude of decisions the Twins need to make about their bullpen.

Nick takes a look at Bill Smith's greatest weakness.

And over at The Bat Shatters, Adam tries to decide: Thome vs. Kubel.

Hidden Aces

Looking Past Greinke For An Ace.

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Good lord, but I’m tired of hearing about Zach Greinke. I get it – he’s a Cy Young winner. He is also going to be a free agent in two years, so it makes sense for the Royals to shop him. But there are approximately a dozen other teams that are going to be just as interested in acquiring him as the Twins, and only one team is going to get him.

It might make sense to have a backup plan.

Furthermore, I consider the Twins baseball writer community to be one of the most thorough and analytical groups of writers any fan base can have. Have we really stopped at that one name? Surely there are others the Twins could consider.

Let’s rectify that. We’re looking for an “ace”, and to me that means a workhorse that can strike guys out when he needs to. So let’s look at the top qualified starting pitchers in the majors by strikeout rate and see if we can find any guys that might be available. Since Greinke comes in at 38th on that list, we’ll look at the 37 guys who ranked higher than him this year. We’ll highlight and examine the guys who might make sense to chase.

1. Tim Lincecum (SF)
2. Jon Lester (BOS)
3. Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
Sorry, not for sale at any price. But seeing last night’s Game 1 World Series starter at the top of the list encourages me that we’re going about this the right way. If you’re wondering about Gallardo, Milwaukee has signed him to a long-term low-cost deal through 2014, so he’s not going anywhere.

4. Jonathan Sanchez (SF)
Nice. We identified Sanchez as a trade target in our TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook, so it’s nice to see him here. Sanchez will be arbitration eligible this year, not that is a particularly large disincentive to San Francisco, who has deep pockets. But his control has been shaky, and his postseason performance in the NLCS even shakier. It’s a longshot, but tune into Game 3 on Saturday and root for him to lose his composure a bit more. It would be very nice to see him available on the trade market.

5. Francisco Liriano (MIN)
I’ll agree with you when you say “Liriano isn’t an ace,” but I’ll add the word “yet.” Nick wrote yesterday that signing him to a long-term deal should be a top priority this offseason, and I agree. But I’ll take it even further and say it’ll happen. It makes too much sense to both sides to do a 4-year/$40 million deal. I’ll be shocked if this isn’t announced in March.

6. Jered Weaver (LAA)
7. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
8. Mat Latos (SD)
9. Josh Johnson (FLA)
10. Cole Hamels (PHI)
11. Justin Verlander (DET)
12. Colby Lewis (TEX)
Yeah - you can’t have these guys. The name that surprises me most is Latos, but he’ll be very cheap for the Padres for a long time. The name above we hear the most is Johnson, but that’s just habit based on last year’s rumors. He’s now signed through 2013. His contract is a great model for a Liriano deal, by the way.

13. Ryan Dempster (CHC)
Well, he’s not cheap. He’ll likely be paid $27.5M over the next two years, he’s 33 years old and his control was a bit shaky last year. But he’s a #1 guy, posted a 3.85 ERA last year, and has a higher strikeout rate than King Felix. The Cubs don’t need to trade him – they have oodles of money – but that doesn’t mean he isn’t available. He’s just not cheap.

14. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
So sorry. He, like a lot of these guys on this list, is signed cheap for a long time, like through 2014.

Instead, focus on free agent pitcher Jorge de la Rosa from Colorado. He’s not on this list because he didn’t have enough innings last year, but he’s young, he can strike guys out, and he’s left-handed. He’ll also likely get a four or five year deal for $10+ million per year, so I’m not holding my breath. But this was my primary target in my offseason blueprint in the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook.

15. Max Scherzer (DET)
16. Felix Hernandez (SEA)
17. Adam Wainwright (STL)
18. James Shields (TB)
19. Dan Haren (LAA)
Don’t count on it, sport. The one possible exception is Shields who put up great strikeout and walk numbers but gave up a ton of hits and ended up with a 5.10 ERA. But he’s cheap next year, and the Rays have options on years through 2014, so I expect they’ll give him a year to bounce back. But it’s not totally crazy to think they might shop him.

20. Wandy Rodriguez (HOU)
Hmm. Now THIS is a hidden ace. 3.60 ERA last year, along with 178 K – and those numbers are put up in Houston’s fairly small ballpark. This is his last year of arbitration (probably making about $9M), so he’ll be a free agent at this time next year. He is exactly the kind of guy that Houston probably should be trading, if not now, in July. In fact, it was rumored he was available at the last trade deadline.

The problem? Houston’s owner and management are…well, “eccentric” sounds so much better than “certifiably insane.” They might not trade him for any combination of players – or they might trade him for a box of vintage show tune albums. (Provided No No Nannette is included, of course.)

Trade Target: Cliff Pennington

In the TwinsCetric Offseason GM Handbook (there is still time for you to "preorder") you'll find dozens of pages of trade targets and free agents that the Twins could acquire. But in my blueprint, I parenthetically drop a name I'd like to watch, but that we didn't write about.

That player is shortstop Cliff Pennington of the Oakland Athletics, and I didn't profile him because I'm not sure the A's are likely trade candidates for the Twins. But he's worth looking over.

Pennington is intriguing because I was looking to add some middle infield speed to battle the Yankees. The 26-year-old stole 29 bases this year versus getting caught just five times, and it looks like he's two years away from arbitration. He was also very good defensively, or at least he was according to UZR; I don't remember his defense being particularly noticeable when the Twins played Oakland.

On the other hand, he has absolutely no power to speak of, with a career slugging percentage of .358 in the minors. Worse, this past year he hit just .250 and posted on on-base percentage of .319, driven by 96 strikeouts compared to 50 walks. Twins fans can't expect him to be anywhere near the offensive asset that JJ Hardy was. Or even that Alexi Casilla was. Shudder.

But his minor league numbers suggest he's better than that. He has almost as many walks (286) as strikeouts (297) in his minor league career. He also sports a career minor league on-base percentage of .362, and he's stolen bases at every level.

It's not clear if the A's really value that skill set or not, but they probably should, because they don't have a lot to replace it. There isn't a lot of good internal competition for shortstop within the A's organization, and the shortstop free agent market is brutal. My guess is that the A's will be in no hurry to move him.

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A quick (and very late heads up): you have plans tonight. I know, you thought you didn't because the World Series doesn't start until tomorrow, but there is baseball here in the Twins Cities. Tonight, at Bryant Lake Bowl, Salon Saloon is performing The Baseball Show. It includes some local baseball writing luminaries, such as Anne "BatGirl" Ursu and Peter Schilling, author of The End of Baseball. f you play your cards right, you can get your baseball fix AND get date points from the significant other for taking them to a show. Not that I would ever do anything that cynical.

And yes, The Voice of Reason(TM) and I will be in attendance, the baseball gods willing.

The Lantern Bearer: A Tribute To Paul Wellstone

Oiginally published 10/29/2002

A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And the world grew darker.

We react to the infinite realities the world holds in a straightforward way. We simplify it by choosing, consciously or not, which reality we care to embrace. But whichever illusion we choose can also constrain us and too often turns into a shadow that we dare not challenge.

How do people react to you when you leave a room? Do they laugh at you? Some might. Of course, some might admire you. And some won't like you and some will and some won't give you a second thought, one way or the other. Which illusion do you subscribe to? And how does that shadow world modify what you say or do before you leave the room? Illusions like that are everywhere. And are so all-encompassing as to be invisible, like water to a fish.

And then comes a Lantern Bearer, who holds up their light to the shadows and walks through them and takes us along. They remind us that we created these shadows, and that we can dispel them. We just have to pick up our lanterns, hold them out in front of us, and walk bravely forward.

Think your idea can never work? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think that which you care about cannot be achieved? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think you are alone in your passion? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy. The world has room for you, your energy, and your passion. Indeed, it desperately needs it.

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A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And the world grew darker.

Paul Wellstone's death left sizeable holes in our world in many ways. An election, uncompleted. A Senate, undecided. A movement, leaderless. A family, parentless.

But the largest hole might be spiritual. For a slice of my generation, he wasn't just someone who championed their political philosophy, but someone who reminded them of the joy and strength that flows from acting in a fundamentally moral way.

"I lost my Kennedy." one friend told his wife this weekend.

His believers flocked to the Twins Cities and followed him to Washington. They participated in a system that they otherwise might have disdained. And they watched him challenge the shadows.

Think an outsider can't change the system? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think voting your conscience will alienate you from the decision makers? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think a good man can't hold onto his convictions when clothed with the trappings of power? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

And then the believers started picking up their own lanterns.

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A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And it happened the way it always seems to with lantern bearers. Suddenly. Tragically. Too damn early.

And, of course, the world grew darker.

When a bright light is suddenly taken away, isn't that always when things are darkest? But that, too, is an illusion. Time passes, the eyes adjust, and one starts seeing the other sources of light.

Because this Lantern Bearer's light has spread throughout this generation. Some lantern bearers are trying to change how politics works. Some are ushering underprivileged kids into college. And if you look around, you'll find hundreds more have raised their own lanterns, found their own path, and chased their own shadows.

Is it still too dark? Sure. So maybe it's time you picked up your lantern.

Think your voice won't be heard? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think you're powerless? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

Think YOU can't make a difference? That's just a shadow - hold up your light and walk through it.

A Lantern Bearer's light went out this weekend.

And a thousand more Lantern Bearers strode forward.

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I attended Carleton College when Paul Wellstone was there, and even had a class with him. I skew considerably further right from him on the political spectrum, but I always respected him, and I always voted for him out of that respect. But mostly I respected his impact on my friends' lives. On the anniversary of his death, I'm rerunning this story was for them. Back to Twins tomorrow.

The Fuentes Option

We know this about Brian Fuentes contract for next year - the team at least HAD an option.

There seems to be a lot of confusion about this, and when TwinsCentric checked with the Twins, someone within the organization told us the Twins did not have a $9 million club option on next year. But this is from the Angels press release about his contract.

"The Angels Wednesday agreed to terms on a two-year contract with free agent left-handed pitcher Brian Fuentes. The contract includes a club option for the 2011 season."

Again, this isn't reported - it's the press release from the Angels. You can still see it online here.

Now, maybe that doesn't still exist. Maybe it was written into the contract that it went away if he was traded. Maybe they needed to exercise it a year early for it to be valid, ala Cuddyer's. Or maybe it was dropped out for some other reason. But it is very strange for a player to have a vesting option and not have it already be a team option.

I'm also pretty sure it doesn't matter. Even if it existed, the Twins wouldn't exercise a $9 million option on Fuentes given their tight payroll constraints. I certainly wouldn't. But I would rather do that than get stuck paying an arbitration award of $7.5M+ for Matt Capps.

The Free Agents

This weekend I got together with the TwinsCentric guys and we walked through each and every free agent for the upcoming year. (I know, I know – we know how to have a good time.) The purpose was to estimate what kind of contract each would get this offseason for our new ebook, the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. It turned into a long meeting, but an interesting one as it really gave me a reality check on various players.

It also made it very clear which free agent shelves are stocked this winter and which aren’t. So rather than go through every player, I thought I might run through an overview of a few positions.

First Base – Absolutely stocked. I’ve never seen a first baseman market so stocked. I had thought the White Sox might really have an issue if they lost Paul Konerko this winter, but they can fall back on Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena or Aubrey Huff, let alone chase Adam Dunn. The next tier of agents is stocked, too. It’s a very good year to be looking for a first baseman (or a DH, hint, hint.)

Second Base – Bad. Last year there were a lot of great second basemen – so many that the Twins could let Orlando Hudson fall into their laps. This year, he is easily the top name out there. The only other guys I’d even consider starters are Mark Ellis and (drumroll please) Cristian Guzman.

Shortstop – Terrible, but it always is. Sure, there are names like Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter who might end up being free agents, but they likely won’t be. The top name is likely Juan Uribe, who plays very well for a bowling ball. If JJ Hardy is not offered arbitration by the Twins, he’s the top name in the market, and will certainly get a multi-year deal.

Third Base – Maybe a little better than average, depending on if the Tigers re-sign one of their two guys (Brandon Inge and Jhonny Peralta). I count five guys that are generally considered starters at the hot corner, and that’s a lot for a free agent class. Update: Inge signed with the Tigers today for $11.5M. That's $1.5M per year more than we predicted. It appears Detroit isn't afraid to keep spending like a wasted celebrity.

Catcher – It’s highlighted by Victor Martinez, and then you have John Buck (20 HR this year), Bengie Molina (starting for ALCS Rangers) and AJ Pierzynski. There arent’ a lot of complete guys there, but there never are at catcher.

Center Field – Ouch. Once Carl Crawford is gone the next best option is …. Melky Cabrera? Rick Ankiel? Jim Edmonds? You’ll hear the name Coco Crisp, but given how desolate the market is, I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up having his option picked up by the A’s, if only to trade him. (BTW, you can find excerpts from the Handbook about the center fielder market here.)

Corner Outfield – There are some MONSTER names in the outfield this year, like Vlad, Magglio and Manny. But there are also lots of questions about whether they are really outfielders or designated hitters. If you want a outfielder that can actually play in the outfield, the choices drop off quick. This might be good news for the Twins if they decide to shake up their roster a bit. They could move any of their three guys in this market.

Rotation – Beyond Cliff Lee, there are a couple guys who profile a lot like Pavano – veteran, good, but not great, inning-eating guys. It falls off the deep end pretty quick after that.

Bullpen – Wow – there are so many great arms out there I wonder if I’m making a mistake. The Twins are losing almost their whole bullpen to free agency, and looking at the list of what is available, I almost don’t care. There are some great power arms that likely won’t be too expensive because they don’t have all those pesky saves on their record. It’s impressive.

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Want more? How about 30 more pages of smart alec profiles on each of the free agents along with 70 pages about everything else you would ever want to know regarding the Twins upcoming offseason? You can get it all right here. The offseason deserves its own Twins annual, and you deserve a chance to try your hand as GM of the Twins. Here’s your chance.

Offseason Preview: The Center Fielder Market

There was a lot of talk immediately after a couple of Yankee hits found their way into Target Field's gaps about upgrading center field this year. The most common suggestion I heard was to trade away a corner outfielder, jostle around the outfield so Denard Span ended up in left field, and get a true center fielder.

But one of the things we've discovered while writing up the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook is how thin the center fielder free agent market is. Actually "non-existant" might be a better description. We rushed in a late change yesterday when Melky Cabrera was non-tendered by the Braves - because he might be the best free agent center fielder available (non-Crawford category). In our list of free agent outfielders, there aren't many that qualify as center fielders. Here they are; read 'em and weep.

Carl Crawford
Age: 29 (08/05/81) | 2010 Salary: $10.00M
Stats: .307/.356/.495, 19 HR, 90 RBI

A lot of Crawford’s value is based on the perception that he can play center field. He can, and has in the past, but he played mostly in left field this year. Still, expect some big market team, looking to fill center field with an impact player, to focus in on him like a laser. If I was the Yankees, I sure would.
Estimated Contract: 6 years, $96M

Coco Crisp*
Age: 30 (11/01/79) | 2010 Salary: $4.75M
Stats: .279/.342/.438, 8 HR, 38 RBI

Here’s the runner-up prize in the Crawford sweepstakes, and that’s not a bad thing. Unlike last year, he doesn’t need to prove he is healthy. He’s also a plus defender, put up solid offensive stats (albeit in limited time) and is only 30 years old. If the A’s decline his $5.75M option, he may get more in this market than people would think. On second thought, why would they not pick it up?
Estimated Contract: Not available - Athletics pick up the $5.75M option

Melky Cabrera
Age: 26 (8/11/84) | 2010 Salary: $3.1M
Stats: .255/.317/.354, 11 HR, 59 RBI

Is he a starting center fielder or a fourth outfielder, overhyped by the Yankee publicity machine? The Braves apparently voted the latter, as they non-tendered him this offseason rather than pay him once he got expensive. His offensive numbers, which are pretty close to what you would expect from his career numbers, are respectable enough for a good center fielder. Unfortunately, Cabrera was not a good center fielder. He was poor defensively in center and spent a good chunk of the season in the corners – where he was also poor defensively. Still, after Crawford is signed (and assuming Crisp stays in Oakland) this might be the top center fielder on the market. (Which is worth remembering when someone talks about moving Denard Span to a corner spot.)
Estimated Contract: 2 year, $6M

Rick Ankiel
Age: 31 (07/19/79) | 2010 Salary: $3.25M
Stats: .232/.321/.389, 6 HR, 24 RBI

He was a great story, but is looking less and less like a diamond in the rough and more and more like a high-end fourth outfielder.
Estimated Contract: 1 year, $1.5M

Jim Edmonds
Age: 40 (06/27/70) | 2010 Salary: $1.20M
Stats: .276/.342/.504, 11 HR, 23 RBI

Seriously? Edmonds is on this list again? Are we absolutely sure it’s the same guy from fifteen years ago, and not a clone or something?

He defied his age in Milwaukee and was eventually traded to the playoff contending Reds. He ended up fighting various injuries during his time there, because, you know, he’s ancient.
Estimated Contract: I’d like to predict retirement, but at this point, why would you bet against him? 1 year, $1M

Jody Gerut
Age: 33 (09/18/77) | 2010 Salary: $2.00M
Stats: .197/.23/.366, 2 HR, 8 RBI

He’s a centerfielder and the list this year is shallow. That’s the only reason he’s here. He’s 33 years old and was released in July by the Brewers and signed a minor-league deal with the Padres. That sounds about right.
Estimated Contract: Minor league contract

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Offseason Preview: ODog Gets His Bone

The following is from the upcoming TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook.

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The O-Dog should finally get his bone this offseason. That’s good and bad news for Twins fans.

For two offseasons in a row, Twins second baseman (and impending free agent) Orlando Hudson has been screwed by the free agent process. Two years ago he was a Type A free agent offered arbitration by the Diamondbacks. He turned down arbitration because he was the premier second baseman on the market – and nobody would touch him because signing him would require teams to give up a first round draft pick. He signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers.

Last year he was a Type A free agent again, but this time he made it very clear he would accept arbitration if it was offered. The Dodgers (wisely) listened. That meant that teams didn't need to give up a draft pick to sign him, but Hudson again got stuck. Due in part to some strange decisions down the stretch in LA to bench him, he was positioned towards the bottom of a fantastic group of free agent second baseman. When the music stopped, all of the other second basemen had a seat, and just about the only one left for Hudson had a big “TC” on it.

But this year, it’s a different story. The 32-year-old is again one of the top names available at second base. He can be offered arbitration, but since he’s a Type B free agent this year, that won’t slow down any suitors. Finally, he’s also young enough that teams can risk a multi-year deal.

The Twins won’t (and probably shouldn't) match that. But they can safely offer him arbitration and not worry about him taking it. He won’t be back with the Twins, but his loss will generate a bonus draft pick.

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Right about now, you might be wondering who else is available at second base this offseason. In this year’s TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook e-book we detail the others: Mark Ellis (probably), Cristian Guzman, Felipe Lopez, Adam Kennedy, David Eckstein, Akinori Iwamura, Julio Lugo, and Aaron Miles.

It also will include the story above and about 30,000 other words on the Twins offseason strategies. If you would like to check out last year’s version for free, or order this year’s version for $9.95, just click on over to TwinsCentric.com. We’re so confident you will like it – and so appreciate you trying out an e-book – that we’ll completely refund your purchase price if you aren't satisfied.

Offseason Preview: The White Sox

Today's excerpt from the 2010-11 TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook is a new feature this year. Each team in the AL Central will be examined to show what Twins fans can expect from their offseason. I like it because it provides me a little comfort: I don't expect any other division rival to improve much this year.

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Chicago White Sox

2010 Record – 88-74 (2nd place in the AL Central)
Best Hitter: Paul Konerko (.312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 111 RBI 72 BB, 110 K)
Best Starting Pitcher: John Danks (3.72 ERA, 213 IP, 162 K 1.22 WHIP, 15-11)
Best Relief Pitcher: Chris Sale (1.27 ERA, 21.1 IP, 28 k, 10 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3 saves)

State of the White Sox
The White Sox looked like they were starting to retool this offseason, so expectations for them this year were guarded. That became especially true after they floundered for the first two months of the season. By the beginning of June, the Sox were 9.5 games back in the division. It appeared the season was already over, and rumors flew that they were fielding offers for their impending free agents.

But feasting on a relatively soft interleague schedule, the Sox won eleven games in a row in June, jumping to within 1.5 games of first place by the end of the month. They followed that with another nine-game winning streak in July, resulting in the division lead at the All-Star Break, a position until the middle of August. However, a hard-charging Twins team eventually overcame them, due in part to the Twins 13-5 record in head-to-head games against their rivals.

Biggest Needs in the 2010/11 Offseason
The White Sox tried all season to add power, but face an exponentially harder task this offseason: adding power exactly when they might be losing their best power hitter. Paul Konerko is becoming a free agent after a year in which he garnered MVP buzz. He’ll rightfully entice some big numbers on the free agent market, and the White Sox will need to pay dearly for his services.

And this offseason, that might be a problem. Payroll for the Sox has hovered around the $100 million mark for several years, and big salaries to Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are constricting how much there is to spend. Even if the Sox don’t tender a contract to closer Bobby Jenks, their payroll will come in around $90M – Either GM Kenny Williams is going to need to trade away some guaranteed salaries or owner Jerry Reinsdorf is going to need to commit more to payroll to afford Konerko.

And of course, just retaining Konerko isn’t going to make this a successful offseason. The Sox need to also find a way to replace catcher AJ Pierzynski, reshuffle the rotation after its late season meltdown, and add power at the designated hitter position. I wonder who they'll target? (Hint: Jim Thome’s family still lives in Chicago.) Plus, there is the ongoing saga on whether they will try and sign manager Ozzie Guillen to an extension prior to the final year of his contract.

All of which means this offseason might look a lot like the last one – more retooling, but maybe not a lot of improvement. And more guarded expectations for 2011.

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The Pavano Dilemna

I'm going to run short excerpts from the upcoming TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook e-book all week. Why? Because you can pre-order it this week, and only this week. Pre-ordering has significant benefits, as you can see below...

Oooh, the plot thickens. Carl Pavano is a Type A free agent, and that adds a whole new level of intrigue.

One could make a decent argument that Pavano is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market behind Cliff Lee, especially for a contending team. So, after years of rebuilding his reputation from the Bronx disaster, he should be in demand. He’s at least a ten million per year pitcher.

However, he’s 34 years old and turns 35 in January. Despite pitching 420 innings over the last two years, his time in New York has earned him a reputation as soft. His 3.75 ERA this year is totally out of line with anything he’s done since 2004. I’m not certain the market gives a player like that a three-year deal.

If the Twins offer him arbitration and he turns it down, things get even dicier for him. Is he significantly better than Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, Ted Lilly or Bronson Arroyo? If not, why wouldn’t a team just sign one of those other guys and keep the first round draft pick they would need to surrender to the Twins?

So if the Twins offer him arbitration, there is a chance he takes it, just like last year. Last year, that was fine, as his arbitration value was around $7M and the Twins had $30M to spend. This year he would demand closer to $10M and the Twins might only have $18M to spend. Can they risk that much on Pavano when it might mean not getting back JJ Hardy or one of their closers?

In one way, this is good news for the Twins. After all, there are plenty of other teams that would love to sign Pavano to a one-year $10M contract, but his Type A status essentially gives the Twins the inside track on that. But if the Twins decide they can’t afford him, they’re likely going to lose their most consistent starting pitcher for nothing.

That's part of a 1500-word essay on the Twins free agents in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook e-book. If you're a regular reader, please take a look at pre-ordering it. I think you'll really like it, and in a couple of weeks, you're going to be reading all kinds of testimonies telling you how much you'll like it. But if you buy it this week, you get it a week early with bonus content AND (if you're one of the first 500 pre-orders) for just $4.95 instead of $9.95.

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The Party Is Over

Parties end.

It’s a sad truth, and you don’t need to be happy about it. But embrace it sooner, rather than later. Nobody wants to be THAT guy, stumbling around a fully-lit dining room, screaming at nobody in particular to “PUT THE MUSIC BACK ON!” So here it is again:

Parties end.

This party is going to end. The Twins Cities did not suddenly swell to the size of an east coast metropolis. The local TV contract has not been renegotiated. And the Twins aren’t going to open a newer, bigger, better ballpark again next year. The huge bump in revenue that the team expected has happened. It isn’t happening again.

That bump in revenue, and thus payroll, was significant. Payroll jumped up $30 million or about 50% over the previous year (according to USAToday). Comparatively, MLB payrolls actually decreased 2.5%.

Historically, MLB payrolls have generally increased 5-10% from year-to-year over the past decade. The Twins have exceeded that a little, another few percentage points, except when they lost particularly expensive guys.

So what does this have to do with parties? We’re about to cover the Twins payroll situation for next year, and when you see how bleak it is, your first reaction is going to be that that there MUST be more money available. If you want to decide that, go ahead. But deciding it doesn’t put any more beer into the keg.

On the left is the back-of-the-napkin sketch of your shell of a team:

Big Picture

Unless you dump some guaranteed salaries, you’ve got about $18 million to spend - and that’s if payroll increases 15% this year to $110 million. You need to completely reconstruct a bullpen, patch over a middle infield, possibly replace an ace starting pitcher, and decide if you want to keep fan favorite Jim Thome as he closes in on 600 home runs. (Good luck.) Let’s walk through each area.

Infield
That beautiful middle infield that produced offensively and shined defensively? It could be completely gone. You own the rights for JJ Hardy for one more year, so you get to decide if he stays or not. But he’ll make what an arbitrator says he is worth, and that’s likely to be about $7M. They aren’t included in the above tab. Orlando Hudson is a free agent, so even if you want to keep him, you might not be able to. If you do want to bid on him, plan on spending about $6M. Punto is also a free agent, but will likely command utility player money.

Outfield/DH

Cuddyer’s money is guaranteed, so you need to trade him or pay him. Same with Span, not that you would want to lose him. You get to choose on Delmon - that salary is an estimate of what the arbitrator will pay him – and Kubel, who has a one-year option on his existing contract. If you want to keep Jim Thome, you had better plan on spending $4M or so – and may need to find him fulltime at-bats.

Bench

Brendan Harris may not be on your team, but he’s on the books because he signed a multi-year deal last offseason, so you’re paying the $1.75M whether you want to or not. Repko is your choice and that salary is an estimate of what the arbitrator will rule.

Rotation

Wanna bring back the ‘stache? You’re going to need to give the 34-year-old a three-year deal for around $30 million. The last two years he has signed “make good” deals, and he did. It’s only fair he get paid, and the market will ensure he will.

Bullpen

I’m listing the bullpen last, but you should probably attack it first. Nathan’s money is guaranteed and there won’t be any insurance to cover it this year, so don’t ask. You have your choice on Neshek, Mijares and Capps – but Capps is going to cost you $7-$9M in arbitration. You also have an option on Fuentes for $9M if you want, but you’re more likely to let him become a free agent – just like Guerrier, Crain, Rauch, Mahay, and Flores will be.

Whew. Roll up your sleeves. And leave us your comments....

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The above is first draft of an essay you'll find in the 2010-11 TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, an e-book that we'll be selling for $9.95 the day after the World Series ends. Last year it was 151 pages of analysis on all the free agents and trade targets that included identifying JJ Hardy as the #1 trade target of the Twins. This year it will be even better, plus, we're promising early delivery and extra content to anyone who pre-orders this week.

Now, the bigger news: because we want to reward our readers who stop by day-after-day, we're selling it at half price to the first 500 people who pre-order it. It couldn't be easier to order. Just swing by TwinsCentric.Blogspot.com for all the details, including how you can download last year's version absolutely free so you can see what you're getting.

Finally, thank you for all your support this season. I'll be here throughout the offseason, obsessing about the Twins and baseball just like you, talking baseball almost as often as I wish I could. I hope you'll come and visit often.

Get Out of The House!

...or, if you're a blogger, your parents' basement. :-)

Win or lose tonight, you're going to want to be with other Twins fans. The TwinsCentric gang will all be at Park Tavern (St. Louis Park) tonight to either celebrate or commiserate, and we would love meet up with you before this season ends. They're promising us some happy hour specials, too. We'll see you between 7:00 and 7:30.

Felt Like A Win

Boy – it sure felt like a win. This was what you want. Actually, this is what you want any number of ways. Let’s count them, shall we?

1. Sabathia’s up to his old tricks, hitting a prime target on the Twins to send a message. (Not just a prime target, by the way, but an ex-teammate.) And instead, it backfires, as a Twins team leader gets his pound of flesh – times two. Not that Jabbathia would miss a few pounds of flesh.

2. Liriano messes up exactly the way he shouldn’t mess up – by walking the anemic-hitting Brett Gardner. Then, with Gardner running on the pitch, Jeter singles to left field but Gardner can’t advance to third because of the respect he needs to show to Delmon Young’s arm. Liriano induces three outs from the middle of the Yankees order as Target Field sways with … what exactly? Excitement? Passion? Those words capture the emotion, but not the force. I’m going to go with: Will. If Gardner takes the extra base, a run scores. Instead, the Yankees road gaffe saves the Twins a run.

3. Because Jabbathia has trouble oozing all the way to first base, Orlando Hudson manages to go first to third on a ground out to first base. A few pitches later he scores on a wild pitch. Another run that sloppy baseball cost the Yankees. The Twins coast through innings four and five with a 3-0 lead.

4. The second batter in the sixth inning, Mark Teixeira, doubles, but that’s what Teixeira is supposed to do against left-handers. The formula for survival is simple – take care of ARod, who is anemic against lefties. Then, limit the damage until you get to the latter half of the Yankees order. This is how any professional left-handed pitcher approaches this situation. It is nothing that the Twins ace cannot handle.

5. The collar has tightened. The game is 3-2 on a hit by Jorge Posada that cleared Orlando Hudson’s glove by ¾ of an inch. But now Curtis Granderson and his .215 career batting average against left-handers is up against Liriano, the Twins ace left-hander. The bleeding will be stopped, and the bullpen should be able to hold it from there, right?

6. The game is tied, the bases are loaded, and CC Sabathia has shown just how tired he is - throwing eight of his last nine pitches out of the strike zone. He’s facing a right-handed hitter that has hit .304 in the second half of the season, with a .363 on-base percentage. And of course, Target Field is as loud as it can get.

By the way, for those of you laying blame, don’t underestimate the damage that Hardy did in this game. Yes, he had a double early and displayed his solid defense. But in this at-bat, he watched (appropriately) strike one. Then Sabathia threw four straight pitches out of the strike zone, just like he had done for each of the previous two batters. And Hardy struck out on them.

7. The game is tied going into the last three innings, which means this game is going to be decided by the bullpens. Perfect. What’s more, the Twins best reliever also gets to face the top of the Yankees order, including two guys who have struggled against right-handers like him. That is exactly the match up the Twins were hoping for.

8. The Twins are down, but there are runners on first and second and Jim Thome strides to the plate – versus a right-handed pitcher? Yep. Because the Yankees had already used their only reliable left-hander, and because Young had singled off his the right-handed replacement, Thome was going to get his cuts against the Yankees third best right-handed reliever.

9. Against, the Yankees eighth inning setup man Kerry Wood, the Twins draw a walk and then luck out on an infield hit. Mariano Rivera isn’t warmed up yet, and so JJ Hardy gets his chance with speed on the basepaths.


Nine. That’s a nice number for a baseball game - but you could count more. Delmon Young’s fly ball to the edge of left field? Granderson’s double that was two feet short of a fly out? Teixeira’s home run that looked foul most of the way to the right field bleachers?

This felt like a win. And yet….

You might need to be a glutton for punishment to be a Vikings fan, but at least those losses only last three hours. A playoff series lasts days, and seemingly each day has at least a half dozen moments like these. Vikings fans at least get the band-aid ripped off fast. You’ve got to man up to be a baseball fan.

And you really, really, REALLY need to man up to be a Twins fan in the postseason. You’ve got a few hours left to prepare. Tonight let’s get something that does more than just FEEL like a win.

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Hey, you’re not done. There is LOTS more great baseball stuff today, and you might want to soak it in. One way or the other, there isn’t a ton of baseball left this year.

Seth goes over the highlights of last night’s game and his thoughts.

Tonight’s game is a lot earlier, giving you absolutely no excuse to join me in celebrating/ranting about the game afterward. I’ll be on the patio at Sneaky Pete’s, assisting Justin Gaard in a postgame call-in show on KFAN AM 1130. Come in, talk Twins, and join me for a beer afterward. After tonight, I think we deserve it, don’t you?

Postgame with the Twins Geek.

Immediately following tonight's game (like RIGHT after the final out), turn your radio to KFAN 1130 AM and we (you, me and the uber-talented Justin Gaard) be able to talk about the game. OR, if you're at the game, come on over to Sneaky Pete's, which is where we'll be broadcasting. OR, if you're not local, listen in on KFAN.com.

You can sleep when you're dead.

John

P.S. Yes, I still occasionally write. Tomorrow, I promise....

Twins Geek on Fox 9 Sports on Demand....

...and I'm sure you're demanding to watch me babble on for 30 minutes about Twins-Yankees, right? Right?

The Importance of Being a Jerk

Jerks win. If you doubt that, look around, or check out the ring on AJ Pierzynski's hand. And it turns out that a jerk is exactly what can win against the Yankees lineup.

Unlike their reputation, the Yankees lineup isn't stellar top-to-bottom. They are a roster full of aging player that are showing fault lines mixed with younger players finding their way. The key isn't to battle gallantly like David. The key is to be ruthless when you find yourself in the role of Goliath. Because you WILL find yourself in that role as you stride through their lineup. I'll show you:

1. Derek Jeter hasn’t hit right-handed pitching this year, popping just a 631 OPS against them. If you’re right-handed, this is when you're a jerk. Keep Jeter off the bases, because for the next two batters you're really not going to want him on base.


2. Swisher has great patience and prodigous power, and hits about the same versus left-handers and right-handers. But he's far from a prototypical #2 hitter. Make him put the ball in play. If he does get on base, let his “speed” clog the bases a bit, because Jeter isn't in front of him, right?


3. Again, this is where right-handers need to be jerks. Mark Teixeira hasn’t hit right-handers well this year hitting just .244 wiht a 799 OPS. If you have the misfortune of being left-handed, don't be afraid to pitch around him a little, because next up is...


4. Alex Rodriguez hasn’t hit left-handers this year, batting just .217.


5. Robinson Cano...ah....um....maybe kneecap him? What else do you do with a guy who hit .319 with 29 HR this year and hurt left and right-handers evenly? But cheer up, because things are about to look a lot brighter.


6. Jorge Posada – He can hit the ball hard, and he can work the count, but he’s hitting just .248 this year. Get ahead and make him swing at your pitch.


7. Curtis Granderson – He can’t hit left-handers. He has never hit left-handers. Keep that streak alive.


8. Brett Gardner – He will try and work a walk so he can run around the bases, but he cannot hurt you significantly with his lack of power. Challenge him.


9. Marcus Thames – His career on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers is .296. Go after him.
   

There is no magic bullet. It’s a batter by batter battle. Get the guys you’re supposed to get - be a jerk - so the damage is minimal when the Yankees get you.

The Plucky "Yankees"

If the season were to end today, the Twins would host a ballclub called the New York Yankees in the playoffs next week. The Yankees are a very established ballclub, but don’t be shocked that you’ve heard very little about them. Being based in New York, they are often overshadowed by the other attractions available in such a large city. Their players are also rather elderly, and thus sometimes treated by the New York media as something of an afterthought.

(You’re probably wondering – what is a Yankee? It basically means “An American,” like in Yankee Doodle. I suspect that in their ballpark – cleverly named Yankee Stadium – they play that song often, and with great pride, given that it was written during the adolescence of many of their players.)

As such, I thought it might be a good idea to introduce you to some of the “Yankees,” so you are at least familiar with their names prior to their probable early playoff exit.

The Lineup
The Yankees lineup includes several fellows who can hit home runs at the top of the order and a complete player smack dab in the middle. But limited resources and sentimental ties to the elderly make the bottom half of the order much easier to navigate.

Derek Jeter – Jeter is one of the “senior” players on the ballclub. His position of shortstop is largely honorary, as he clearly lacks the energy and youth to field the position adequately. The same might be said for his position atop the order, where his .267 batting average acts as a weight for the rest of the lineup to carry. However, he is much beloved by their provincial fans for his winning attitude. Think of him as a taller Nick Punto, though with perhaps less attention from the ladies.

Nick Swisher – Well, that’s an unfortunate last name, especially for a guy with 134 strikeouts this year. However, the plodding Swisher can hit the ball a long way when he connects, with 28 home runs this year. That is likely his preferred way to round the bases, as his under-tall and over-round stature limit his abilities on the basepaths and in the field.

Mark Teixeira – Teixeira struggled to find a team that could tolerate him earlier this decade, being traded away from teams in 2007 and 2008. However, he seems to have found a home in New York. He hits lots of home run – 33 this year, but is also a rather lumbering runner, and so the Yankees protect his defense by playing him at first base. He’s also struggled to make contact against right-handed pitchers, hitting just .251 this year. Good thing they only account for 2/3 or the league’s pitcher population.

Alex Rodriguez – Rodriguez found a home with the Yankees earlier this decade after essentially being rejected by the Boston Red Sox, though the Yankees made him move to third base before agreeing to take in someone of his advanced age (35 years old). Like many aging ballplayers, his ability to play baseball is showing signs of decline, but he is still very dangerous against right-handed pitching. However, he also plays against left-handed pitching - apparently the team doesn’t have the heart to insist on moving him to a platoon.

Robinson Cano – He’s athletic, young and a complete player. He’s the exception that proves the rule in this lineup.

Jorge Posada and Mike Cervelli – Jorge Posada was a wonderful catcher at the beginning of the millennium, but now the 39-year-old is allowed behind the plate mostly as a courtesy. The 24-year-old Cervelli is his exact opposite: young, defensive and overmatched at the plate. If you could combine the two, you would likely get a substance with neutral acidity, like water.

Curtis Granderson – Everything a team would want in a centerfielder, except that he has a history of looking lost defensively and can’t hit 1/3 of the pitchers in the majors (a .215 BA against LHP for his whole career).

The last two spots in the lineup are distributed among several lads who are either on their last legs (Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns) or players with part-time talent (Brett Gardner, Marcus Thames).

Tomorrow we’ll get to the starting rotation, which is top-heavy – in more ways than one – and touch on the unfortunate limits the Yankees deal with in their bullpen.

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If you’re looking for some extra Twins coverage, check out Seth’s Podcast from Monday night. It included the Twins minor league hitter and minor league pitcher of the year, as well as an entertaining interview with Jamie Ogden. I downloaded it last night and really enjoyed it.

Delicious

Ever wonder what a 800-word death rattle sounds like? This.

MVP Countdown

In a philosophy class we had a debate about cause and effect. The teacher told a story that went like this: a man is pushed off of a very tall building by Mark Buehrle. Midway down, as he passes a window, he is shot in the head by Hawk Harrelson. When the man hits the ground, he is pronounced dead. Who killed him?

The answer, of course, is AJ Pierzynski, because his evil knows not the limitations of time and space. But it’s the debate that is important. Who is most responsible for the ultimate outcome?

MVP debates are a little like that. You can evaluate the cause and effect any number of ways. If Cuddyer can’t play first base, does Thome have the impact he did? Are the dozen leads that Liriano handed over to the bullpen worth more than the 50 Jesse Crain helped preserve?

Recently I turned in my votes for the top 10 Twins MVPs. But I thought I’d go through my ballot with one of each player’s bigger games and some thoughts added.

#10 – Danny Valencia
9/1 vs. Tigers – In the bottom of the 10th, Valencia singles to drive in Michael Cuddyer and win the game 2-1

He’s hitting, he’s hitting in the clutch and his defense has been much, much better than advertised. Plus, he has signed my kid’s scorecard before a Twins game. Twice. Sucking up to the judge’s kid is always a very solid strategy, just like dancing with the hot bridesmaid’s niece. Heady ballplayer, that Valencia.

#9 – Michael Cuddyer
8/31 vs. Mariners – Cuddyer has two hits, two RBI, a run and draws a bases loaded walk that brings in the tying run in a 4-3 Twins victory.

His offense has been bad, and his defense is nowhere near Morneau’s standard. Of course, he’s also played out of position and been out there just about every damn day….

You know what – I’m not going to take a lot of crap about this pick. I can’t statistically quantify what a manager of a baseball team does to help it win, and I don’t sweat that. Why should I worry about statistically quantifying what a leader in the locker room brings? This is the manager’s choice for MVP, and he sees a hell of a lot more of that stuff than any of us do. And there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that there is something going on behind the curtain. So Cuddy makes the list, and I’m not going to apologize for it.

#8 – Jim Thome
8/17 vs White Sox – After the White Sox grab a 6-5 lead in the top of the tenth inning, Thome hits a two run home run in the bottom of the tenth off left-hander Matt Thornton to give the Twins a 7-6 win.

9/6 vs Royals – The Flag Pole game.

What can be said that hasn’t been said? He’s the only guy that gets two big games on this list because signature moments follow this guy like crazy follows Mike Tyson. Gawd, but I’m looking forward to seeing what he is capable of in the playoffs.

#7 – Justin Morneau
6/4 vs. Milwaukee – Morneau homered to give the Twins an early lead, and then led off the eleventh inning with a double and eventually scored the winning run.

Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your leader in Win Probability Added (easily my favorite stat for evaluating an MVP) for the Twins hitters. That’s how big of a monster Morneau was in the first half of the season – that three months after he quit playing, only now is Mauer close to Morneau’s impact.

I’m going to say it – what the hell is going on with his head? Either we don’t want to pry, or everyone is keeping it awfully close to the vest, but how do we not know specifically what the deal is here? The day after this happened, we thought he might be out a couple of days. Instead it’s three months, going on eight? Is it asking too much for an explanation with some specifics?

#6 – Jesse Crain
9/14 vs. White Sox – Holding a slim 4-3 lead and with the bases loaded and one out, Crain strikes out Paul Konerko and Manny Ramirez. The Twins win the game and drop the Sox seven games back, essentially ending the pennant race.

Basically, I’d accept anyone above and including this spot being the MVP. It’s that close. It’s personal preference. Any other year, he’s in the top five, but this year is just too loaded. It’s not a knock, Jesse. You’re The Wizard of Oz in 1939.

#5 – Delmon Young
7/18 vs White Sox – Twins come back by scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth to win 7-6. Young has two hits, including a home run and the game winning single.

If the season ended at the end of June, Morneau would have been MVP. If it ended at the end of July, it would have been Delmon. His slump in August and the fact that I grit my teeth on any ball hit to left field is why he’s fifth on this list.

#4 – Brian Duensing
8/14 vs. Oakland – Duensing throws a complete game, three-hit shutout.

All he has done is everything the team has asked him to do. I feel like he’s been overlooked in this discussion. He was the best reliever in the first half of the year and a suitable replacement for Cliff Lee in the second half. I don’t know how he’s not winning this thing.

(And if you’re looking for futher proof, this is the guy that leads all Twins in WPA.)

#3 – Francisco Liriano
4/27 vs. Tigers – Liriano outduels Justin Verlander, pitching eight innings, giving up just four hits and no runs.

Remember this winter, when we got all excited about what Liriano was doing in the Dominican? He lived up to, and surpassed, the hype. What’s more he seems to be growing both as a pitcher and a professional in each start. Let’s give him the rest he needs and see how far he takes us. I think it will be pretty far.

#2 – Carl Pavano
7/17 vs. White Sox – Pavano throws a complete game in a 3-2 win over the White Sox and veteran Mark Buehrle.

Why Pavano over Liriano? Mostly to drive Nick Nelson crazy. But also because I would just rather have the extra 28 extra innings that Pavano provided than the four fewer runs that is the difference between their ERAs. I have no problem going the other way. For what it’s worth, Liriano has the better WPA score.

#1 – Joe Mauer
6/17 vs. Phillies – After trailing 9-4 entering the ninth inning, the Twins tie the game up on a two-out home run by Mauer. The Twins eventually win the game in eleven innings.

I cringe about making the default choice, but I despise people choosing the wrong guy just to be different. As recently as a week or so ago, I was touting others over Mauer, but upon reflection, he’s done it all. He’s hit like a fiend, been a difference maker in games (+2.58 WPA) and also brings the defense at a demanding position. It isn’t sexy, but Mauer is the team MVP.