The Arbitration Agreements

First, let’s start with kudos to the Strib. I’ve been meaning to praise them for quite a while now for their thorough Twins coverage this offseason, but I keep phoning it in, so I hasn’t happened yet. Fortunately, they continue to set a high bar, and give me another opportunity.

It wasn’t too long ago that the arbitration agreements and filings that happened in the last week wouldn’t have gained more than a couple of inches or space. Now it generates a story on Friday (Kubel), another story on Saturday (Morneau & Rincon), along with a nice little graphic showing just how things are going with each player.

And for the record, the Twins have done very well. Almost every agreement has come in under the estimates made just last week. And wrapping them up presuably gives the Twins more time to work this whole Santana thing out. Particulary astute was getting some of these agreements in place before official numbers were filed, which limits the win/lose mentality that agents can fall into once both sides numbers are published.

The only thing we haven’t seen from the Strib is just how all the pieces of this fit together, and frankly, I’m baffled by this. Where the hell are the stories about payroll falling $10 to $20 million in the same year that major league baseball revenue increase 10% AND the team breaks ground on a new stadium? How is nobody noticing this? Are Magatu and I taking crazy pills?

For the record, given the recent signings, and the awards so far, here’s where things sit:

The final total up there is a little over $63 million. That's $10 million less than the Twins started the season with last year, and if they lose Santana, the payroll drops to $50 million. That is conservatively $30 million less than the payroll should be this year. Which would certainly have been enough to sign someone like Andruw Jones to patrol center field for the next couple of years. Which sounds a hell of a lot better than plugging Michael Cuddyer there.

The good news is that this should give the Twins some additional flexibility for trading han Santana. There are teams out there that are worried about taking on Santana's salary, but now the Twins might be able to take on some serious salary in return. If the Mariners can't afford Santana this year, would they change their mind if the Twins took back Richie Sexson as part of the deal?

It's not something that has been publicly discussed, but I wonder if it might not make some sense. And I presume the Twins are having some creative discussions along those lines. Or at least I hope they are, because they certainly can afford to.

Charge of Betrayal

The Twins caravan started yesterday, meaning that players, announcers and some members of the front office will be making their way across the state. They'll play a promotional video, participate in some silly activities, and answer fan's questions. And, of course, hope that nobody in that community can do math.

Because the math this year is damning for the Twins. The math says that this year, the year after the Twins gained a ballpark on the public's dime, they're going to cut payroll. The only question is, how much?

Here's the numbers, with reasonable estimates of those players who will be entering arbitration:

Major league baseball's revenues have increased around 9% in the last year, and the Twins spent a little over $70 million last year. Which means that the Twins could have been expected to increase their payroll to around $80 million - if they were a team that wasn't due a huge boost in revenue.

But of course, that's exactly what they are due. On top of the increases that every other team is expecting, the Twins can expect a $30 million boost, by their own estimates, fueled by the new ballpark. So you tell me what a reasonable payroll level would be? $85 million? $90 million?

But like a gloriously bad infomercial, just wait, there's more. Because the estimate above contains Johan Santana's salary, and most Twins fans would conclude that the likelihood of him being on the payroll on Opening Day is slim. Which means the payroll would be closer to $53 million.

That's about $30 million less than it should be. That's more than A-Rod will make this year. And it's $18 million less than it was last year. Which is more than Torii Hunter will be making in Anaheim.

Think they'll just put that money towards some long-term deal? Wrong. That's not the way business works. It's not like it's going to go into some trust account to be used in case of an emergency. That money is for THIS year. And even if it rolls over to next year, it certainly isn't rolling over to 2010, which is when the real budget crunch hits. And it certainly isn't going to extend the number of years offered to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. That money needs to be there in 2011 and 2012.

This may not be the result of outright greed - personally I think it's more the result of the risk adverse nature of the organization - but it's certainly going to be perceived as such. And, frankly, as one of the bigger defenders of the frugal nature of some of their signings, they deserve any and all criticism they get, regardless of the cause. Maybe they were painfully conservative, afraid to offer big money to a free agent until they had moved Santana. Or maybe they were just unsuccessful in wooing a free agent that we don't know about. Either way, it doesn't reinforce a sense of confidence in managment. Or competence of management.

Or maybe the popular perception is right, and their owner is a greedy sucking pig. Certainly, the math seems to suggest as much. Hopefully the participants of the caravan (and Twins Fest) may soon find out that arithmatic is still alive and strong in Minnesota's eduational system.

An Early Spring Invitation

Twins sign RHP-Zach Day to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.
Twins sign LHP-Randy Keisler to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.


You gotta love being a Twins blogger.


For most teams, being a blogger is a grind in the offseason. Sure, they might have some big free agent signings that we don't get to enjoy, but mostly they need to wait until spring training to warm up those mental muscles.


Not us. We've already had one enormous trade completed. And we've lost a giant part of our recent history. Of course, Santana trade talk has kept us all busy. And now, just when things look a little staid, the Twins give us this unexpected present - a pair of signings that seem designed to launch us into spring training mode.


They are literally begging me to write an article that could as easily be published at the end of March as in the middle of January. Because these signings are a fantastic example of a strength and weakness that this organization has displayed repeatedly for the last half dozen years. And the signing indicates that we'll likely see them again.


The signing of Zach Day is the scary one, but the problem with signing Day isn't Day's play, per se. (Or his pay. In fact, you may say their way to pay Day is OK. Hmmm, I might like having Day on this team more than I thought.) No, the problem is that Day is another in the line of pitchers like Ramon Ortiz or Rick Helling. He could be perceived as a veteran by a coaching staff whose salivation glands activate when the words "veteran pitching" are uttered. It's very likely that Day ends up pitching way more innings than he should in this organization. I would estimate the number of rants about this topic in various blogs at the end of March to be 97.5.


In reality, Day is a pitcher who hasn't thrown even 100 innings in the major leagues since 2004. He's also only thrown 372.2 innings in his major league career. As you've likely already heard, he's coming back from rotator cuff surgery, which is damn hard surgery to ever come back from. And even at his "peak", he was only striking out half as many batters as he pitched innings. Which wouldn't be terrible if he didn't walk almost as many.


So let's recap - he was never particularly good, and the last time he was used regularly was four years ago. And he's trying to recapture that "magic" after a surgery that has ended more than one career. Oh, and given the coaching staff's predisposition towards protecting their young, there's a better than 50% chance he'll be on the starting staff on Opening Day. Really, the only good news is that his presence will likely goad Bat Girl to come out of retirement for some Dr. Seuss rhymes.


Well, that's not the only good news, because the Twins also signed Randy Keisler. Again, this isn't so much about Keisler as it is how he will be used. Keisler is also a veteran (31 years old), but really hasn't done much starting since he bounced in and out of the back end of the Yankees rotation back in 2001. And yes, I know saying s0meone bounced in and out of the back end of anything probably isn't especially flattering.


But this really is good news, because Keisler looks like a piece that could fit nicely into the Twins bullpen, and the Twins are genrally objective and logical about their bullpen. Keisler is left-handed, and his strikeout rate approaches the league average and sometimes exceeds it. In his major league career he's also struggled with control, but that hasn't been much of a problem recently in mostly full seasons in AAA.


The Twins bullpen looks pretty full right now, but there are all kinds of questions surrounding various participants, from Pat Neshek's late season fatigue to Dennys Reyes' control to Juan Rincon's health. Keisler slots in as another left-handed option with Carmen Cali, only he appears usable against right-handers and in long stints. Plus, he simultaneously provides insurance for Glen Perkins, who is basically providing insurance for Francisco Liriano.


All of which might make you believe that Keisler is a better player than Day. He's not, or at least it's not obvious that he is. But he still represents a better signing, because this organization holds their relievers especially accountable while doing almost exactly the opposite with their veteran starting pitchers.


It's a nice reminder. And it's nice that they provided it in mid-January, so we can remember who we'll again be rooting for, and grumbling about, in March.

Bedard Rumors and Santana Impacts

Rumors started flowing yesterday from two different sources about a possible trade the Mariners might make for Orioles left-handed ace Eric Bedard. It’s the kind of deal that might produce a flurry of action surrounding a possible Johan Santana trade for several reasons.

1) The rumored deals set a high standard for the quality of prospects that an ace is worth.

It’s hard to compare deals, because opinions on younger players vary so widely, but we’ll try giving each of the players a letter grade. Fox’s Ken Rosenthal suggests the Bedard deal might include center fielder Adam Jones (an ‘A’ prospect), catcher Jeff Clement (‘A’) and third baseman Matt Tuiasosopo (‘C’). Jason Churchill of ProspectInsider.com also include Jones, but includes shortstop Carlos Triunfel (‘B’) and left-handed reliever George Sherril (not a prospect, but with a 2.36 ERA last year and 56 K in 45.2 IP, we’ll call him a ‘C+’).

Either is quite a haul, similar to what the rumored deals are for Santana with the:

Red Sox: Ellsbury (‘A-’), Lowrie (‘B’), Masterson (‘C’) or
Yankees: Hughes (‘A+’), Cabrera (‘C’) and Jackson (‘B-’).

Got all those letters straight? No? I’ll help. Based on my completely subjective rankings, all of the deals are in the same ballpark, but the deals for Santana are towards the low end of what is rumored for Bedard.

2) If completed, it would represent a significant shift in power in the AL West.

Coming into the offseason, the Mariners finished six games behind the Angels, and eleven games behind them in the adjusted standings. While the Angels have added Torii Hunter and Jon Garland (and lost Orlando Cabrera) the Mariners have only added Carlos Silva. Meanwhile, the third best team in the division (Oakland) is completely dismantling itself. Is it any wonder that the Angels seem content to stand pat?

If the Mariners add Bedard, that could change considerably. Adding him closes the gap considerably, especially as he’ll end up pitching against the Angels a handful of extra times per year. For Twins fans who dream that the Angels and their deep farm system start to get interested in Santana, this is the perfect development.

3) If it isn’t completed, it shows the Mariners are in the market for a top shelf starter.

The Mariners have been mentioned before, but have never really been considered serious suitors for Santana. This shows the Mariners really are looking to acquire a top starter. And it shows that they’re willing to trade Jones, who is often compared to Torii Hunter, to acquire him. And it’s not like the Mariners have given any indication that they’re skittish about paying elite talent top dollars (see Suzuki, Ichiro). Or, for that matter, not so elite talents (see Beltre, Adrian).

It’s been widely speculated that the Mariners weren’t interested because the Twins had asked for Jones AND Brandon Morrow, who they claim they absolutely will not trade. The Twins likely don’t have much interest in the Mariners other top prospect, Clement, because he’s a catcher. Perhaps the Twins could send a power reliever, or another minor league pitcher in return to make them more willing to add Morrow.

Mostly what this does is fuel hope for those waiting for a Santana deal. It shows that the compensation in return for super-talented pitchers is significant. It shows that teams are still gauging themselves. And it shows that moves still are being made. Basically, it shows that the offseason is far from over.

What about the Cubs?

Thtuck, thtuck, thtuck!!! Thtuckk!! THTUUUUUUCCCCKKKK!!!!!!!!

Like Flick in A Christmas Story, the Twins remain stuck in their dealings for Johan Santana. The Red Sox and Yankees are primarily concerned in keeping him away from each other. Ditto the Angels and the Mariners. The Mets have the needs and money but not the prospects. Are there any dark horses on the horizon?

I submit for your consideration, the lovable Cubbies. They certainly have the money, and their 3rd best pitcher is currently Jason Marquis, so I think we can safely say they’re in the market. Frankly, pairing Santana with Zambrano might give the North Side the pairing they’ve been waiting for since Kerry Wood and Mark Prior flamed out, as well as delay Lou Piniella’s next coronary by six or so months.

They were originally not viewed as an option because they’re for sale, and the perception was that they couldn’t take on any huge contracts, but that didn’t stop them from promising $48 million to a Japanese center corner outfielder with a questionable elbow. Santana would represent a significantly larger obligation, but it might also represent a significant asset.

But the Cubs also mimic the Mets in that they don’t really have the loaded minor league system one would like to see. They could conceivably offer up 22-year-old centerfielder Felix Pie as a centerpiece, but he doesn’t outrank Jacoby Ellsbury or Phillip Hughes. You could argue that he doesn’t outrank Melky Cabrera or Jed Lowrie.

On the other hand, the Cubs success last year was partly fueled by rookies, so they can fill out their offer with quantity, though the quality is suspect. I assume 26-year-old Matt Murton would be included, but where are the Twins going to put another corner outfielder? Are infielders like Ryan Theriot, Eric Patterson, and Mike Fontenot legitimate starters, or just backups who had good years? Their minor league careers suggest the latter. And can any of the young pitchers they utilized in last year’s run be effective other than at the back end of a rotation, or in the bullpen?

All things considered, they seem to be at least as good a trading partner as the Mets, who continue to be included in the conversation without bringing anything substantial to the table. Whether they'll represent an additional bidder remains to be seen, but they should be summarily dismissed.

Betting on the Dark Horse

The Twins are doing what they can to break the little stalemate they have with Boston and the New Yorks, but the supposed deals haven’t changed much. Early rumors flew about the Dodgers, Angels and Mariners, partly because they each had “acquire a veteran starting pitcher” atop of their offseason to-do list, and partly because they have deep minor league systems. But they’ve all settled for a mid-rotation innings eater, wisely or not.

On the other hand, it looks like the free agent market is certainly doing its part to goad some new teams into the bidding. For instance, paying $11 million per year, long term, for Carlos Silva. I mean, even if you WANT to have your stomach lining eaten away, can’t medical science come up with a cheaper and quicker solution? That kind of deal makes a seven-year, $140 million contract for Santana look fiscally responsible, if not downright prudent.

The Yankees would like the Twins to think that they’re the only team that’s ever paid premium dollars for a big name free agent. It’s not true. Though, to be fair, they ARE the only team to pay $16 million for four months of an alleged steroid-using 45-year-old. So they got that going for them.

But the current market for Santana was set by some other deals. Like the seven-year contract the San Francisco Giants (2007 payroll of $90 million) gave Barry Zito. Or the $18 million per year contract Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs (2007 payroll of $99 million) worked out. Or even the one-year $22 million contract that the Astros (2007 payroll of $88 million) worked out for an alleged steroid-using 44-year-old.

So I’m looking for a dark horse to emerge over the next couple of weeks. Frankly, the rest of the free agent field isn’t particularly compelling to those willing to put up the money. And Santana’s willingness (bordering on eagerness) to talk to anyone about a long-term, record-breaking deal, is leaving the rail open.

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One quick heads up. Over at TwinsCards.com's blog (Tony....Killer....and Carew), Blake is running a Twins Trivia contest. It sounds like fun, and a chance to learn some stuff to stump your friends with at the next Twins game. Please check it out.

2007 Bonnes XMas Letter - Little Risks

“Risk! Risk anything! Care no more for the opinions of others, for those voices. Do the hardest thing on earth for you.”

- Katherine Mansfield

“We took risks. We knew we took them. Things have come out against us. We have no cause for complaint.”

- Robert Falcon Scott, as found in his diary after his party froze in Antarctica

Minnesota has felt a bit like Antarctica this December, with snow and bitter temperatures, but things have gone quite a bit better for us than for Scott and his crew, who were trying to be the first to make it to the South Pole. They did make it, but when they arrived they found out that someone had beat them by a month. And then they all froze to death on the way back. So this year’s letter is about little risks. Big enough so life is worth living, but small enough so you don’t freeze to death.

We’ll start with the kids, because - let’s face it - childhood is all about little risks. It’s why, despite all the pains, we all yearn to be young again. (Oh, plus we would be attractive, full of potential and feel good all the time. So that would be kind of nice. Apropos of nothing, The Voice of Reason™ and I turned forty this year. Can you tell?)

The Chatty Chatty Princess™, who is in fifth grade, seemingly likes taking risks on writing assignments. Sometime that means tackling papers using a creative style, but usually it just means procrastinating. She’s also discovering sports, even playing soccer with the boys at recess. And she’s learning a little bit about toughness as a school patrol person this winter. (She has yet to freeze to death.) She’s also tall, prone to drama and thinks she’s a little overscheduled.

The Boy™, who is in second grade, has areas in which he likes to take risks, too. For instance, he regularly risks giving wrong answers on math assignments so he can play “Stump the Volunteer Grader.” (Q: What’s 10-5? A: 1/12 divided by 1/60). He’s also becoming comfortable with the naked aggression of chess tournaments, even bringing home a couple of trophies. He also thinks he’s overscheduled, and mostly wants to play Pokemon 24/7 on his Nintendo DS.

The apartment building we bought last year got into the risk thing too, when the furnace conked out. In the middle of February. On a weekend. During a blizzard. (And again, the freezing to death theme returns.) Other than that, owning it has gone pretty well, save for the time TVOR had to dispose of a flattened bunny carcass in August with a snow shovel. Neither the bunny nor the shovel was ever heard from again.

Besides running point on the apartment, TVORe was busy running the Girl Scout troop’s cookie campaign. She also finished her term as PTA secretary and has tried to cut down on her volunteering for the school. It isn’t clear she’s had a lot of success in that last effort.

I'm back to independent consulting, and that’s a little risk that I won’t be abandoning soon. If anything, I'm looking for some other crazy risks, almost wishing I was unemployed. TVOR should occasionally remind me of Robert Falcon Scott.

Our vacations involved some little risks. We loosed 20 friends (including my brother Jeff, who flew in from Australia) on Vegas in March. As if that wasn’t risky enough, they braved going to a Barry Manilow concert. Take that, Scott. And this summer we took the kids for our first summer car trip, though we only went as far as Chicago. TCCP and I braved the enormous Ferris Wheel on Navy Pier. TVOR stayed on the ground as The Boy™ explained “If they die, when I get to heaven, I’m gonna say ‘I told you so.’”

But we think even he would hope this holiday season finds you well. I'll be taking a short hiatus this week, unless of course a huge move is made, in which case I 'll do my best to post. MNGameDay.com will also not be updated for awhile, but you can still use the RSS feed on he bottom to monitor all the other posts in the blogosphere.

In the meantime, enjoy the week with your friends and families. And, of course, do your best to stay safe and warm. We don't want anyone to freeze to death.

MNF: The drunken 1AM edition

Are you ready for some footbaAAAAALLLLL?
The email came about fourteen hours ago:

Johno -- I have an extra really good ticket to tonight's game. Are you interested in going? Let me know ASAP.

So we know a few things from this email:
1) I'm going to that game, because I'm going to say 'yes' without even checking with The Voice of Reason™. And she's going to sign on, because she's the greatest wife in the history of wives.

I hope.

2) I'm likely going to drink to excess, because that's how events end with the group of friends that call me 'Johno'.

And the lucky recipient of all this, besides myself, is you, dear reader. Because I'm going to want to write-off this bar/game bill, and the only way to do so is to write it up on GameDay's blog. Or so I hope. Which brings us to...

The Greatest Vikings Pregame Meal in the Universe
I could show you the emails where we debated various alternatives, but I think it's safe to say that we partook in the greatest MNF Vikings Pregame Meal in the Universe tonight, and you might want to have in on the radar if you're going to the game this Sunday. You just need to do the following:

1) Go into Murray's
2) Go into the bar, not the restaurant. It's not crowded, a big plus on game day.
3) Have a few slices of garlic bread as an appetizer and, for the love of all that is holy...
4) order yourself and your companions steak sandwiches.

You might be thrown by the fact that they're not on the menu. Don't be. They're on the menu at lunch, and they can make them anytime. You'll be treated to steak tips, perfectly grilled at your desired doneness (I suggest medium rare) with cheese and bacon on wheat or white bread. I took three guys there tonight, ordered for them, and by the end of their sandwich they were each ready to service my ever need.

That's a good sandwich. Maybe too good.

Intros
It was my first Monday Night Football game, and I gotta say, I was impressed. The whole crowd feels a little different, like we were there for a playoff game. The Vikes did a nice job of stoking the flames with their introductions, and everyone was standing up and going crazy.

And they did a REALLY nice job of introducing Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson together at the end of the line. I mean, it's nice that they made the rookie feel like an important part of the team.

So What Went Wrong?
There will be plenty to analyze in this game, but I'll tell you an area that will likely not get enough criticism - the special teams. I guarantee you I'll hear some praise for them tomorrow, since Devon Hester didn't score a touchdown. And I'll wonder if the person who says it missed the first four minutes.

Because the Vikes special teams screwed up enough in the first four minutes to cost them a ballgame - and they were just warming up.
1) The opening kick was returned beyond the 40 yard line, which is beyond where the Bears would get the ball if the Vikes just kicked it out of bounds. And that wasn't unusual tonight.
2) Bobby Wade, who is a solid wide receiver, but a terrible punt returner, fair caught a ball on his own seven yard line.
3) And throughout the night, the special teams didn't understand exactly what a wedge is supposed to do. The wedge isn't about force- it's about timing. They need to time their impact with the opposing team at just about the time their runner is reaching them. The Vikes didn't adjust to this reality all night.

And that was just the tip of the iceberg:
- they had at least two, and maybe three bad snaps
- they missed an extra point
- failed to catch a ball that was downed inside the five yard line
- committed a penatly to lose exceptional field position and
- failed to catch a fair catch that was luckily returned, though it was called back.

Did the Special Teams Do Anything Right?
Yeah. When they sent two guys back just so the could lay out the flyer on the Bears. We were all wondering why they had two guys back on that punt, and then as soon as the kick lef the punter's foot, we were all anticipating that hit. We must've watched it be set up for 30 yards. Immediately around me, I bet I heard 15 guys shout as it was made, and we were all at least 80 yards away from it. Gawd, you have to love football fans for that kind of reaction.

Tell Me More About Football Fans
The 5' 4" woman in front of me, who was about 45 years old, a little overweight and had two-toned dyed hair, spent a timeout rocking to Pour Some Sugar On Me by Def Leppard. She knew the words and everything. Her husband was a balding overweight guy who generally ignored her except when he repeatedly poked her in an obscene manner with a little flagpole. I don't even know what to add to this.

Uh, Got Any More Behind the Scenes Observations?
Sure. On the Vikings first field goal, the 'flag guys' ran out onto the field. They're the guys that each carry a flag with a letter that says V-I-K-I-N-G-S and run around the field, waving it back and forth like they're leading the charge of the light brigade.

And 'G' ended up shatter'd and sunder'd before he even made his way onto the field. He stumbled over his own feet all of twenty feet into his sprint and - after getting a little support from 'S' - half galloped after the rest of the string until they reached the sideline. To the fans credit, they seemed to enjoy rooting for the VIKIN. Especially the guy in front of me with his stubbly little flagpole.

So Why Is Football So Popular?
At The Little Wagon, we debated this a bit, as we stood between the girl wearing Zubas and the guy wearing face paint. We couldn't figure it out. Then the guy next to us was warned by a random stranger that his brother was 'hammered and into this little Asian' in the corner, and had told the rest of the friends to 'go away'. And a theory developed.

Maybe it isn't the salary cap, or the television contract or the merchandise marketing. Maybe football just plain appeals to the lowest common denominator.

God knows that tonight I'm not in any position to argue against it.

Cliff Notes Version of the Weekend News

On Wednesday night I was faced with so much news and so little time that I spit out 50 word takes on everything Twins. And tonight is worse. Much, much worse. We're down to bullet points, I think.

Signing Adam Everett
I'd like to agree with Aaron, who does a great job of justifying this signing based on Everett's defensive value. Defensive metrics deserve their own post, as I don't trust them and I wouldn't mind delving into why. But I also overvalue the defensive value of certain positions, and shortstop is one of them. Plus, Aaron rightly points out that just about everyone agrees that Everett really is outstanding defensively, and the metrics support it too. For a GM, it's a logical and defensible move.

Now we'll get to see if the manager can meet that same standard, because the problem with signing Everett is that it dislodges the only position where Nick Punto isn't an offensive drag. You might think that Punto will then end up as a backup super-infielder, but Gardy's history suggests otherwise, and that Punto will end up at second base. Actually, Gardy's history suggests that one of them will end up hitting at the top of the lineup. Check that. At least one of them will end up hitting at the top of the lineup.

If so, the move turns from an interesting move to a kick in the gut. Which is precisely how I felt on Thursday when I heard the move had been made. Smith has give several small signs that he knows what he's doing in this GM role. This single move might tank all the progress he made up to this point in the offseason.

Signing Mike Lamb
If so, Smith started making progress again the very next day. Three months ago, I wrote:

Mike Lamb has had a decent year, and a decent career so far as a platooning first baseman and third baseman. I suspect his at-bats have been limited because he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. He's been hanging around in Houston for the last few years, and he missed being a free agent by just twelve days this year. He's positioned to either be the bargain of the offseason, or the guy that gets a contract much larger than anyone anticipates.

I was legitimately surpirsed to see the Twins land Lamb, and especially surprised to see the terms of the contract as they have been released so far. The detail that worries me the most, and it's a pet peeve of mine, is that the third year has been listed as an 'option'. But nobody is saying whose option it is, and that is an absolutely critical detail in evaluating these contracts.

Lamb is an interesting fit for this team in at least three ways...
1) He hits right-handed pitching, which is a great match for Brendan Harris. You'll remember that Harris was acquired from Tampa Bay in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade, and will probably play second or third base. Harris mashes lefties and struggles with righties. So Lamb can either platoon with Harris at third base (if Gardy, sigh, starts Punto at second) or swap places with Harris in the lineup if they're both playing depending on who's pitching.

2) He's limited defensively at third base, which means he's a nice fit with Everett over on the left side of the infield. To be honest, I wonder if the Twins would've signed Lamb if they hadn't already signed Everett.

3) He's also perfect hitting off the bench or as a backup DH with Craig Monroe, who mashes lefties but struggles against righties. So if the Twins do acquire a third baseman in a Johan Santana trade, Lamb coul still fit the roster. Especially because Monroe's contract isn't guaranteed.

So Where Are We Now?
Things get a little tricky when designing a lineup, because you suddenly realize just how left-handed this team is. And also, that the team speed that they valued so much last year has just about dissappeared.
1 - ??? - CF
2 - JMauer - C
3 - DYoung - LF
4 - JMorneau - 1B
5 - MCuddyer - RF
6 - JKubel - DH
7 - BHarris - 2B
8 - MLamb - 3B
9 - AEverett - SS

That's not half bad, and now the Twins can concetrate moving Santana for overall value, and not for need. With Dan Haren now off the market, and Hiroki Kuroda having signed with the Dodgers, Twins fans can expect some moves in that area soon.

Hopefully I'll have a little more time to post when we finally have some news there.

Fifty Word Challenge: Arbitration and Signings

Good golly, but a lot went on yesterday. So let’s try something a little different. Buncha topics, fifty words each. Go.

Craig Monroe
A non-guaranteed contract? Is that even legal? Is that the MLBPA on line two?

Well, more evidence of admirable creativity from Bill Smith. I just hope he doesn’t learn that giving Gardenhire a “veteran bench bat” is like giving “wine for a special occasion” to a wino.

Jason Tyner – Part I
OK, this is gonna go long, because dammit, it pisses me off.

Never has a player made so many smart baseball analysts act so dumb. Dogged by his reputation in Tampa Bay, way too many of us missed what Tyner was – a great fourth outfielder, who is probably good enough to hold down the strong side of the platoon in center field.

His career line with the Twins vs. RHP? 454 AB, .311 BA, .347 OBP, 13 SB, 3 CS. All for a league minimum price. If you don’t appreciate that, you need to pull your head out of your ass.

Jason Tyner – Part II
Why, if you’re the Twins, would you NOT offer Tyner arbitration? You don’t have a center fielder yet, right? He solves 2/3 of that problem for about $800,000. I main, even if it’s just as insurance? It’s not like this team doesn’t have $18 million to spend this offseason, right?

Aaron Rowand, Kosuke Fukudome and Miguel Tejada
Ok, I’m stumped. Just what the hell are the Twins going to spend that money on? If they trade Santana, they have $30 million to spend. Yesterday they lost three top targets and all of them were fairly reasonable deals. I wonder just how Twins management is reacting in private.

More Tejada
With Tejada in Houston, shortstop Adam Everett will be non-tendered. Everett is a 30-year-old defensive specialist who has hit .242 with a 640 OPS the last three years. Plus, I hear he can take charge of an infield. Ten bucks says Gardy has already left a message on Smith’s voicemail.

The Cost of Admission

It should have been a weekend of celebration - belated celebration, but celebration nonetheless. Instead, the weekend provided a soap opera, complete with anti-heroes, shadowy villains, surprise twists, and a big bowl of popcorn. And best of all, it’s the actors in this little drama who are paying the cost of admission. Because that’s what this little drama is about.

Last week the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) voted to admit web-based writers into their ranks. It’s a huge step for the notoriously staid group, as evidenced that it took them about eight years to take it. The first group of nominees was requested from five web sites which are credentialed for MLB post-season coverage. Sixteen writers were accepted, including Scott Miller from CBS Sportsline; Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, Amy Nelson, Buster Olney, and Jayson Stark from ESPN; Ken Rosenthal from FoxSports; John Donovan, Jon Heyman, and Tom Verducci from SI; and Tim Brown, Steve Henson, Jeff Passan, and Dan Wetzel from Yahoo.

Celebration time, right?

Not so fast. First, it’s not the huge step forward you might think, because only two of the members who were accepted weren’t previous members of the BBWAA from their time working in print media. But what is really raising eyebrows is that they also rejected two candidates – Rob Neyer and Keith Law.

Those two writers have a lot in common. For instance, they both were submitted by ESPN.com. Neyer has been one of the most popular baseball writers there for at least eight years, and is almost exclusively available only if you subscribe to their Insider service. Law is relatively new to ESPN.com, but was originally one of the writers at Baseball Prospectus, and in between those two gigs he served as a consultant with the Toronto Blue Jays.

They’re also considered the two most statistically-oriented baseball writers of that group. They’re also two members who have never worked for newspapers. And they’re the two writers who have been most critical of traditional baseball writing. And traditional baseball writers.

So what happened? Well, the simple answer is that BBWAA’s national board of directors, who reviews the nominations, provided only two options to the rank-and-file. A vote of ‘yay’ accepted the sixteen internet writers but left out Neyer and Law. A vote of ‘nay’ rejected the whole bunch. Basically, Neyer and Law didn’t make it out of committee.

And why not? According to the president of the BBWAA, Bob Dutton, questions were raised about Neyer and Law, specifically whether they attend enough baseball games. That’s not quite as petty as it sounds. The reason the BBWAA was originally formed was to act as a lobby for baseball writers when dealing with Major League Baseball. For instance, if a club isn’t giving proper access to ballplayers, or providing sub-standard conditions in the press box, they can negotiate with the ball club as a unit. And so the BBWAA considers it a requirement that the writers attend games.

How that question was raised, and how it was resolved, is a matter of some debate. Tracy Ringolsby, a Colorado Rockies sportswriter who sits on the BBWAA national board of directors, claims that the person from ESPN.com who submitted the names was asked, though not by Ringolsby. Whomever the BBWAA talked to replied that Neyer and Law don’t go to many games.

However, Law says he talked to the person from ESPN.com who submitted the names and that the person denies ever being contacted by the BBWAA. ESPN.com’s baseball editor, who would seem to be the natural person to ask about such a thing, also claims he was not contacted. Finally, Neyer and Law were certainly never contacted, despite the BBWAA having their contact information.

And that story also contradicts another post by Maury Brown, a BBWAA member who, as far as I can tell, isn’t on the national board. He claims that the BBWAA was perturbed to get nine nominees from ESPN, which is essentially a television network, so they went back to ESPN to see if they could pare down the list. It was ESPN who suggested that Neyer and Law be left off.

Of course, none of the scenarios completely answer the obvious questions. Like why were they the only two singled out? Who was consulted from ESPN? Why didn’t the national board allow an up-down vote on Neyer and Law, or on each of the candidates? How many games is enough? Are existing members, some of whom are editors or political cartoonists, and only rarely write about baseball, put up to similar scrutiny? And finally, why was this narrow interpretation of the role of the BBWAA applied in only this case? Especially when there were sixteen other applicants?

That last question is especially tricky, because the narrow role of the BBWAA has transformed significantly from its original purpose of lobbying MLB for the writers. The BBWAA is now responsible for the first interpretation of baseball history. They decide who is admitted to the Hall of Fame, a responsibility of which Neyer, at least, has been quite critical. And maybe more importantly, they’re recognized (and again criticized) for the end of the season awards that are usually cited when evaluating HOF credentials.

In other words, they interpret the game the day after it’s played. They interpret the previous year and determine award-winning performances. And they interpret players’ careers and pass judgment on decades worth of results. They are the first, second and third passes at baseball history. To an enormous extent, they define it.

Which explains the reaction on the Internet Friday and Saturday. Near as I can tell, it started late Thursday night with a post at BaseballThinkFactory.com where Neyer gives his initial reactions and wonders if his relationship to other writers cost him the nomination. The decision was also being examined early on Friday at BaseballAnalysts.com in a thread in which Rob also participates. It contains some solid back-and-forth with BBWAA members about the process and the reasons for rejection.

Then things started getting a little less civil. Keith Law posted his reaction on his web site. Amidst a fairly civil post Law mentions that he heard Tracy Ringolsby voted against accepting the sixteen internet writers, and speculated that the slight may have been tied to a dislike of the “Interwebs.”

That speculation introduced me to the tragic/comic stylings of Ringolsby, because he goes off like a roman candle. Ringolsby replies that he voted against the sixteen because he thought Law should be included. But his position on Law doesn’t stop him from launching into some personal attacks, or from ranting that Law is a “liar” a couple of times. While portraying himself as a kind colleague of Law’s, we get our first twist when we find out that this isn’t the first time he’s attacked Law publicly.

Eventually, it seems like he and Law reach a mutual understanding, but Ringolsby continues his anti-Law rant over at a fourth thread, again at Baseball Think Factory. This thread starts late on Friday night and by now people are pretty riled up. The second post is Ringolsby anonymously calling Law a “liar.” The third post is Neyer calling Ringolsby out. But the fourth post, by someone named Banta, is my favorite:

“This thread is off to a good start. Think I'm gonna make
some popping corn and settle in.

I don't have cable anymore, in case anyone's
wondering.”

Banta likely came away satisfied. The thread continues for nearly four hundred more comments. Ringolsby reveals his identity and he and Neyer go back and forth during the first 100 comments. We get another plot twist when Neyer accuses Ringolsby of writing “truly terrible, personal things about me in his column, without contacting me first to check the accuracy of those things.” Hmm. Turns out Neyer and Ringolsby have some history after all.

But wait, there’s yet another twist. In the next one hundred comments, we learn that Neyer has some history criticizing Ringolsby, too. Neyer received an advance copy of a book Ringolsby wrote and posted a critical review of it anonymously on Amazon.com. It’s something he regrets, and it’s what Ringolsby was criticizing with those “truly terrible, personal things.”

And that’s where the soap opera currently sits. The BBWAA has made it very clear that Neyer and Law are both welcome to apply again next year, so stay tuned. Because it looks like this performance will get at least one of the two things it’s really missing: a sequel.

The other - a happy ending - is still in doubt.



Looks like there's an update on the story above. Joe Posnanski interviews Bob Dutton at his blog for his first-hand account of what happened.

Also, Bat Girl is back again at the GameDay Writers' Blog, which I'm sure you'll want to check out.

Mariners Targets

Hey gang,

I'm heading to bed, so there won't be a usual column today, but amid rumors that the Mariners might be making a proposal for Johan today, I briefly researched the two names that have been mentioned the most, and I thought I might share it with you.

Adam Jones - Yesterday I talked about getting an all-star caliber player back in the trade. Jones looks like that kind of guy. He's a right-handed center fielder who doesn't have the greatest plate discipline. But he's just 22 years old, and he absolutely owned AA as a 21-year old, posting a .315 average and a .568 sluggin percentage. ThinkTorii Hunter, with a worse glove but a better bat.

Brandon Morrow - The good news is that he was their #1 pick in 2006 and spent pretty much the whole year in the majors after jumping straight from A ball. The bad news is that he spent it all at the back of the bullpen. That's probably because he had some real control issues, walking 50 guys in just 63 innings. Youch. It didn't hurt him too much - he posted a 4.12 ERA and struck out a guy per inning in the bigs, but of course that was in relief.

The 23-year-old right-hander is supposed to be starting games in Winter ball this year. If he joined the Twins, you can bet there is no way he starts the year in the majors, and I wouldn't project him much higher than another middle-of-the-rotation guy, kinda like Ian Kennedy.

They're a solid start to a package, though I'd rather replace Morrow with another high-ceiling bat, even if he's not necessarily ready for the bigs this year. As soon as we get whispers of an offer, I'll let you know what I can find out about them.

Perspective

I come to you today looking for perspective.

Because it's a apparent that I've lost it. You might have thought that was apparent yesterday when I spend most of the afternoon manically clicking between MNGameDay.com and MLBTradeRumors.com. Or when I constantly checked ESPN.com's Winter Meeting Blog on my iPhone while I drove home. Or when I ignored my children's pleas to help them with their homework so I could click refresh on RumorsStartedForTheHelluvaItByTheDeskClerkAtTheOprylandHotel.com. Nope.

No, I finally realized I had been sleepwalking through the last six days when I researched just how far it was from my house to Nashville. So I could drive there.

And plead with Bill Smith.

And then lock him in the trunk of my car.

But I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who is losing their perspective today. When it comes to starting pitching, there's more than ample evidence that the world has gone nuts. A 33-year-old pitcher from Japan has GMs throwing at least $30 million at him? Jake Peavy signs an extension paying with a $22 million option in the last year? Carlos Silva has ten suitors?

To be fair, my perspective may have returned because I realized I would probably be too late. All indications are that by the time you're reading this, the Twins will have made a deal so the Boston Red Sox get the best pitcher of this decade. And the Twins, by most accounts, will get:
- a left-handed #2 starter (Jon Lester)
- a somewhat expensive average center fielder (Coco Crisp)
- an infielder with patience a little power (Jed Lowrie)
- a sinkerballer who doesn't strike people out much (Justin Masterson)
- an outfielder with some promise who has yet to play a full year of professional ball (Ryan Kalish)

And now, at the risk of getting a little too wonky, let's put those players in perspective, too. We'll list them again, but this time, let's change some of the more projectable names to an existing major leaguer:
- a left-handed #2 starter (Ted Lilly)
- an infielder with patience and a little power (Dustin Pedroia)
- a sinkerballer who doesn't strike people out much (Carlos Silva)

Lets' assume two of them reach that potential. Given the existing market for pitching, would you trade Santana for any two of those guys? How about if the other teams picked up their salaries?

I wouldn't, and I don't think the Twins would either. And for all the hand-wringing about Jacoby Ellsbury, adding him doesn't change the equation much. A slap hitting speedster who can play center field but doesn't have much arm projects to be Scott Podsednick. That guy can be valuable, but like these others, he's probably not going to be an all-star.

And that's what I'm looking for when I trade the best pitcher on the planet when teams couldn't be looking for more pitching. I want at least one and probably two potential all-stars in return. Not necessarily a superstar, but someone that I can reasonably expect to be near the top of his position. I need a couple of guys that can help lead to my next pennant run, not just stay out of the way.

I don't see that, and I suspect if I drove down to Nashville and cornered Bill Smith, he would too.
And if not, there's always the trunk.

Hank's Bluff

God help me, but I love negotiation. Buyer or seller. Being in one or watching one. And above all talking about one. And the reason is simple.

I love the creativity. A really good negotiator is disciplined, confident and prepared, but above all they're creative. The whole goal is to get someone to buy into a reality that you want to exist, because in that particular reality you have leverage. And so the successful negotiator can think on their feet and create a myriad of scenarios to advance their reality. Like making sure a Yankees assistant overhears a phone conversation with the Red Sox. Or leaking that an "inside source" says that a team's offer isn't genuine. Or creating an artificial deadline.

Hank's Bluff
Last night, Hank Steinbrenner tried that last one. He made sure that tomorrow's NY dailies are reporting that a deal must be done by Monday or the Yankees will pull their offer of Phillip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and some unknown "other" guy off the table.

Steinbrenner, who was not planning to attend the meetings, said of his time frame: "The Twins are aware of it, that I'm not going to wait much longer. And the truth of the matter is, they don't want to be stuck with only one team to deal with. If they're stuck with just Boston, they're going to get a lot less. I'm not going to be played. This is not a game. This is serious business. I'm not going to be played, us against the Red Sox. That's not going to happen."

That's quite a threat there, Hank. So if the Twins don't accept the Yankees offer by tomorrow, Hank will punish the Twins by:
1) forcing the Twins to trade Johan Santana to the Red Sox, who will get Santana while
2) keeping their best prospects for future trades. Instead, the Yankees will
3) ask Oakland GM Billy Beane whether they can trade for a lesser pitcher, like Dan Haren.

So the Yankees would've have driven the best pitcher in baseball to their chief division rivals, at a reduced price, and would need to negotiate a do-or-die deal with one of the shrewdest GMs in baseball while no longer having a backup plan.

Yeah. Strong bluff there, Hank. Savvy.

The Leverage of Time
Especially because by simply setting a deadline, he's admitted to a key concession about leverage: you have it - I don't.

Usually, the person who tries to set a deadline is the seller. You see this all the time. I expect an offer from another couple by the end of the day. We may be out of this model. We're having a 3-day sale.

When these tactics are in play, you need to ask yourself exactly what the rush is. If they have the best deal, you'll certainly come back. So just what is the salesperson worried about?

Obviously, he's worried you're going to find a better deal.

The Fallback Option
Turns out, Hank probably is too, because ultimately the Yankees can't provide the best deal. They may have the most blue chip pitching prospects in the game, but the Yankees aren't offering all of them. And more importantly, the Twins don't need pitching prospects.

The Twins need offense, and that's where the Yankees are sorely lacking.

The Yankees best offer would likely be second baseman Robinson Cano, but they say he's untouchable. Also, he'll be eligible for arbitration this year anyway, so he's about to get expensive fast. That's not exactly what the Twins were looking for.

The name that's in every rumor is Melky Cabrera, who is a center fielder(+) and just 22 years old(+). But he's also never been a highly rated prospect(-) and while he's decent defensively(+), he's never put up above average offensive number in either the majors or the minors(--). His upside is that of a cheap(+) average center fielder, but he might also be a slightly gifted fourth outfielder whose inadequacies are hidden in that Yankee lineup.

And there's been a lot of discussion about a third prospect. The top two hitting prospects in the Yankees system are Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Tabata is impressive because he's just 19 years old, but he also hasn't dominated any of the levels he's played at. Worse, he hasn't faced pitching higher than High-A ball. Neither has Jackson.

But here's where it gets good - the Yankees reportedly won't offer these two. Both guys, neither of whom is particularly attractive to the Twins, are strictly off limits. And even better, they are the only two offensive prospects worth a damn in their organization right now. The next guy on Baseball Prospectus list of top Yankees prospects is a catcher who just finished up rookie ball.

The bottom line is that the Yankees, even if they really, really wanted to, probably can't beat the Red Sox existing offer. They're stuck being a fallback option, and in a negotiation, you NEVER want to be the fallback option. It's a powerless position. The buyer just keeps negotiating with their first choice until your offer isn't the attractive one.

The Twins Dilemma
Which isn't to say that everything's perfect for the Twins either. In a perfect world, they'd have a suitor that is both desperate for Santana and had the players they need. The Yankees are desperate, but don't have the players. The Red Sox have the players, but aren't nearly as desperate.

So there are some real risks here. The primary one is that the Red Sox are simply trying to see if they can drive the Yankee's price up, but when push comes to shove, their offer isn't genuine. That would be disastrous for the Twins.

Another is that both suitors would be nearly as happy if Santana wasn't traded at all. The best leverage that Smith has is that the stakes couldn't be higher for the Red Sox and Yankees. Either their team gets the most dominant pitcher of the decade, or their arch-rivals do. Hell, both would probably be relieved if a third team did enter the bidding, especially if that third team was in the National League.

Which is why Smith's vow to "not compromise" rings so hollow. Odds are that both eastern franchises would like nothing more than for this whole Santana thing to go away so they didn't need to worry about their rival getting him. It'll be interesting to see if Smith's creativity stretches as far as bringing a third team into the Yankees deal that might be able to provide some offense.

But regardless, it looks like there's almost no compelling reason for this standoff to be settled soon, let alone today. Which is just fine for this negotiation-loving fool.

Vin de Idaho

Kermit: I took the liberty of ordering us some wine. Oh waiter!
Steve Martin: Yes, may I help you?

Kermit: The wine please?
Piggy: Hmmm - you mad impetuous thing, it's Champagne!
Steve Martin: (taking the bottle from a table-side ice bucket) Not exactly - Sparkeling muscatel - one of the finest wines of Idaho!
Kermit: Well, you may serve us now please.
Steve Martin: Oh! May I?
(Steve Martin examines the bottle. You can see the bottle says Vin de Idaho on it, with a block image in the shape of Idaho on the label.)
Piggy: look how he does that!
Kermit: Yup. Very suave.
(Steve Martin reaches to his apron and takes a bottle opener. Then he pops off the bottle cap and holds it over to Kermit.)
Steve Martin: Don't you want to smell the bottlecap?
Kermit: (hesitantly sniffing) Smells good.
Steve Martin: Would you like to taste it first?
Piggy: (to Kermit, trying to help out as Kermit hesitates) I think he's supposed to.
Kermit: Would you taste it for us please?
(Steve Martin reluctantly gives it a taste, and then wildly spits it out to the side in disgust, making nasty faces. Composing himself, he turns back to the pair.)
Steve Martin: Excellent choice.
Kermit: Should be for 95 cents.

I gotta admit, as I reviewed the latest rumors flowing out of New York dailies, I couldn't help but mimic Steve Martin. The Yanks have decided after a series of conference calls to include Philip Hughes?

Oh! May I?

Uh, welcome to the party boys. But the most amusing part of offering the Twins Vin de Idaho is that The Big Apple can't believe that this $0.95 bottle of Hughes, Melky Cabrera and some random minor league pitcher isn't to our liking.

Here's the thing: that still isn't particularly close to Boston's offer of Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and some other low minors pitcher. To be brutally frank, including Ian Kennedy STILL might not get it done.

I know it's against your inbred instincts, but you might want to gaze past the Hudson and ask who you're dealing with. Hint: it ain't the Pirates. The Twins don't need pitching. Check out Baseball Prospectus Top 11 Twins Prospects (I'll assume Hank can spring for the subscription) and you'lll see a team silly with pitchers. And they aren't counting Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins or Francisco fricking Liriano.

Hughes makes the rotation. But he's gonna need to bump someone out. And Kennedy gets to compete with that guy along with Jeff Manship and Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak, so don't tell me how invaluable Ian is.

Excellent choice.

Listen, we enjoy you Yankees guys, cause your ignorance to the power of the dollar is kinda endearing in a childish way and all, but you gotta understand that you're not dealing with the Royals here. The Twins have made the playoffs four of the last six years and frankly we're looking to knock that smug little oblivious grin offa your mug. And if that means riding the best pitcher of the decade into next year's playoffs (and letting him choose his own team thereafter), so be it.

So don't expect us to go all ga-ga after some overhyped right arm that you guys have cooled on. Show us some bats, boys. Because if (besides Hughes) all you're offering is some middle-level CF (Melky) and some other pitcher that isn't going to rank in the Twins Top 10, well, you might want to save yourself the dime.

Hell, even if includes some guy at High A ball (Austin Jackson), you may want to reevaluate exactly what you think you're so excited about. Because so far you're nowhere near Boston.

And frankly, we're not terribly impressed with your mad, impetuous offer.

Checking out the Sense of It

Hey, if it doesn't need to make sense for them to publish it, then it sure as heck doesn't need to make sense for us to talk about it.

Some local and national sources reported yesterday that the Twins were talking to the Red Sox about a package of players and prospects for Johan Santana. The lists were remarkably consistent, with both of them reporting that Coco Crisp, Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie were included. They differed in the fourth player, though it hardly matters since they seem to basically be the same guy.

From a Twins fan's perspective, they were also consistent in that neither was nearly a good enough offer. Both substituted quantity for quality. Both plugged holes instead of provided championship caliber players, and they didn't even do that great of a job at plugging holes.

Or at least that was my impression at first glance. But it's fun to get acquainted with these guys, and it might be downright valuable in the near future. So let's get started:

Coco Crisp – Two years ago he was a cheap, 26-year-old center fielder with over 1500 major league at-bats with an above average bat. Now he’s a somewhat fragile 28-year-old center fielder with a below average bat and a two-year, $10.5 million contract.

So what will he be over the next two years? Well, he’s always had speed, providing around 20 stolen bases. He has some power, and can probably be penciled in for at least 10 home runs. His batting eye is pretty good, and the key is for him to hit around .300 like he did in 2004-2005 instead of the .260 he hit in 2006-2007.

To me that adds up to be a hole-filler, not a difference-maker. That’s not terribly unappealing when your other options are Denard Span or Jason Pridie. But nobody should be excited about getting Crisp.

Jon Lester – Well, we know he’s a cancer survivor. That’s important, because he’s quite a bit more valuable to the Twins than if he wasn’t. But other than being a young pitcher (he’s 23), I don’t know that much more about him, other than he’s not Clay Buchholz.

Turns out he’s left-handed, which is awfully nice, and he’s struck out 110 batter in his 144.1 innings in the majors so far, but that’s only been good for a 4.68 ERA. He put up some absolutely obscene numbers in AA-Portland a couple of years ago and has spent a little time in two season in the majors despite his bout with non-Hodgkins lymphoma.

He looks like a good young pitcher, possibly as high as a #2 guy. He’s not dissimilar to the cadre of young pitchers the Twins already have.

Jed Lowrie – The hidden player that the Twins are likely quietly lusting for. He’s 23 years old, but he’s also a Stanford alum who exploded through AA-Portland and AAA-Pawtucket last year. He moved from second to shortstop last year, though I haven’t seen any reviews of his defense.

But we know that he can hit. At both levels he hit about .300 and slugged about .500 (though it looks to be mostly doubles). His plate discipline slipped a bit at AAA, but it was still good for a .356 OBP. He only had 160 at-bats at AAA, so he would likely start the year in Rochester and be promoted in mid-June, like the Twins love to do.

Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson – We’ll put these guys together since they’re both pitchers who show promise but haven’t advanced beyond AA. They’re both right-handed, both have high strikeout rates (around 1 per IP) and were both born about the time I was losing my virginity. Hmmm. You know, that's not as depressing a thought as I thought it would be.

So the package includes a not inexpensive plug-in center fielder, a young #2 starter, a middle infielder who could be somewhere between above average and very special in a year, and starting pitcher who will find himself towards the middle of the Twins minor league depth chart.

That's better than I thought, mostly because of Lowrie. But it still means 2008 looks pretty ugly. The offense isn't much different, the pitching is likely worse, and the holes left to fill (particularly third base) can't be easily fixed.

We're beyond the point where where the Twins just need to get talent back. That talent needs to fit together like a big jigsaw puzzle. These rumored deals with the Red Sox doesn't get them there.

---

BTW, make sure you check out GameDay's Writers' Blog today. We have a special guest. And I don't know if you know it or not, but she's kind of a big deal.

Also, if you think you're getting all the info on the Delmon Young trade or the latest rumors/info about moving Johan, and you're not checking out MNGameDay.com, I think you're a sad little person. Seriously, I posted the above story last night at 9:00 PM, and I now count twelve posts since then. And it's the middle of the night.

I mean, honestly, you have some certifiable Twins writers out there, some of whom are super-talented like Nick Nelson, and all they ask for is a click or two. What else are you doing exactly?

The Magic 8-Ball Answers: The Tampa Bay Trade

OK, it's happened. And even if it wouldn't have, we could still talk about it. After all, this is the internet! If we're going to be lambasted by corporate media, we might as well have some fun with this stuff, right? And if we're going to be consulting our dubious sources we had better include Mattel's omniscient fortune teller. Enlighten us, oh dark one!

Q: Should I be excited about this trade?

A: Without a doubt.

And that's true whether you're a Twins fan or a Rays fan.

If you're a Twins fan, you came out with the best player in the trade, which isn't likely to happen again this offseason. Delmon Young is the kind of talent that can almost never be traded for - young, cheap and limitless. For instance, Young is more desirable than any player who has been mentioned in a possible deal for Johan Santana. You could make an argument that he is more desirable than any of the packages being offered. He's that good. If you can't get excited about getting Young, you probably also sleep in on Christmas morning.

Which doesn't mean this was a steal for the Twins. In fact, they probably come out a little behind on the deal in talent. On most GM's desirability scale, the players (including contracts, etc.,) probably rank like this:

1. Delmon Young

2. Matt Garza

3. Jason Bartlett

4. Eduardo Morlan

5. Branden Harris

6. Jason Pridie

I suspect I'll catch some grief for Harris' rank, but you need to recognize that prior to his performance this test he was viewed as Nick Punto without the glove. Over the last year, he looked considerably better that that, but so did Punto at this time last year.

What's more, the pieces the Rays receive fit their puzzle better than that Twins. This move give them the top-of-the-rotation starter they need, upgrades their shortstop both offensively and defensively, leverages their surplus of outfielders, and makes room for stud prospect Evan Longoria if Akinori Iwamura replaces Harris at second base. That franchise can sit on their hands for the next four months.

Q: Does this trade mean a trade for Johan Santana is more likely?

A: Cannot predict now.

Yesterday you heard both sides of the argument. One side would say if the Twins trade Garza, they couldn't afford to also trade Santana. Another side would say that the Twins traded Garza because interested teams were mostly offering pitchers.

But the bottom line is that this trade doesn't tie their hands either way. They currently still have a surplus of young pitching. Whether or not they trade Santana depends on what kind of offers they get for Santana, and nothing else.

However, they're sure going to be making some additional moves, because the pieces they received don't fit together too nicely. Delmon Young, despite playing 29 games in center field, is nothing more than insurance for the spot. He doesn't have the speed for the position. Branden Harris, despite playing 89 games at shortstop is thought of as a below average fielder at second base, let alone shortstop.

With this trade, the Twins essentially filled their DH position and opened up on in the infield. They still have plenty of work to do.

Q: Did the Twins blink at the last minute in this trade?
A: Signs point to yes.

Mid-afternoon yesterday this trade included Juan Rincon instead of Eduardo Morlan. But last night reports came out saying that the Rays had held up the deal due to concerns about Rincon's elbow and the deal was finalized shortly thereafter with Morlan in his place. Just yesterday Baseball Prospectus ranked Morlan as the fourth best prospect in the Twins system, and he'll likely play a role in the Rays bullpen in 2008. He could become dominant.

There may be some gnashing of teeth about this late change, and I'll agree that this is a slightly worse trade for the Twins. But it isn't a difference maker.

For starter, Rincon is better than you think. He finished fairly strong last year. Yes, his strikeout rate isn't what it used to be, but that's the case will all pitchers who have been in the league a few years. It's a reliable indicator for young pitchers coming into the majors. It isn't as effective judging veteran pitchers.

Also, even without Morlan, there is plenty of young talent to plug into the bullpen. The young starters that the Twins will have in AAA this year will still provide plenty of fuel for this year's bullpen, even without Morlan. And Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire have consistently shown that building a strong bullpen is something they can consistently do.

Finally, the $4 million that Rincon will cost next year isn't going to hurt the Twins offseason plans. The Twins still have $20 million to spend this offseason, and another $13.5 million if they move Santana. For a team that is allergic to long-term deals, that's an enormous amount of money.

Q: What do you think of Bill Smith so far?

A: Outlook good.

The man has some balls, that much is clear.

You never see a trade like this. Trading young talent for young talent is a challenge trade, virtually designed to get a guy fired. If Garza becomes a stud and Young tears up his knee, Smith is dead meat. Ditto if it goes the other way for Tampa Bay's executives.

And this is an aggressive move in other ways. By moving Garza, it's clear that Smith is more open to moving surplus talent at one position than Ryan was. He traded that asset which the organization has traditionally fawned over (starting pitching) and got back something that the organization needed (offense) even though it meant downgrading their defense. On this team, swimming upstream like that looks a lot like leadership.

And maybe more impressive is that we're again seeing a creative solution. By moving Bartlett, it looks like Smith recognizes surplus talent even when it isn't obvious to others. After all, for the last two years, Nick Punto has fielded like a shortstop and hit like a shortstop. Now he likely IS a shortstop, where he's not a liability. With him around, Bartlett became expendable, for the right player.

And Delmon Young looks an awful lot like the right player.

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OK, that's it for tonight. I think I could write about 2000 more words tonight on this trade, but the 8-Ball is tired. Instead, I'll suggest that you head over to MNGameDay.com and check out the Twins Blogs and News feed in the lower left-hand corner. There will be lots of good stuff by people that deserve your attention. And I guarantee you'll get your fill of great info and Twins takes.

Sucking the Joy Out of a Santana Trade

This Santana thing is loads of fun, isn’t it?

The speculation, I mean. After all, that’s what we like to do in the offseason. And that’s especially true for us saberbloggers and rotogeeks, who are only too happy to show off our knowledge of minor leaguers and sleeper candidates. But the real appeal is that it fires up the imagination, both for the fans lusting for that shining star and for the fan base looking for that deal that rebuilds a title shot.

But it’s not likely to stay fun, not if you’re a Twins fan, and especially not for a Twins executive. A very thin and straight line is going to need to be walked due to the impact of the no-trade clause that Santana seemingly has until…when exactly? Most sources indicate that it’s until the end of his current contract, which is the worst possible news for the Twins. That no-trade clause significantly changes their leverage, and likely makes a lot of the speculated player packages out of reach.

The sad truth is that the Twins are in a tough position even if there wasn’t a no-trade clause. With Santana’s impending free agency, there are two ways this trade can go down. It can either be a straight trade, in which case the receiving team only gets Santana for one year. Or it can be a “sign and trade” which means the Twins and another team would make a trade contingent on the other team agreeing to a contract extension with Santana within 72 hours.

For both the Twins and a trading partner a straight trade makes very little sense. Nobody is likely to offer a monstrous rebuilding package for a single year of Santana. In fact, you could argue that Santana is worth more to the Twins next year, a contending team with a young pitching staff, than he is to any other team in the majors. There’s just very little common ground for a deal. That might change as the trade deadline approaches next season. Or it might not.

But from Santana’s standpoint, the sign and trade approach doesn’t make much sense. He is already very rich, and he’s going to get richer. A year from now he’ll be courted and have his choice of teams and incredible paydays. That will all probably happen whether he is traded or not. So from Santana’s standpoint, there is only one reason to sign a new deal – he’ll get his big contract a year earlier.

That’s not a totally trivial incentive for a player, and one might think it’s even more tempting for a pitcher, because they tend to be more fragile than position players. But one doesn’t become a major league ballplayer without being comfortable with risk. Virtually nothing is guaranteed for most of these guys for the first half dozen year of their professional career. Don’t expect them to get cold feet as they approach their big payday. Especially when they already have millions in the bank.

Believe it or not, that’s not the bad news. But we’re getting closer.

Because even if Santana is willing to sign with a specific team a year early, the moment that realization hits, Santana’s allegiances change. If he chooses the team he wishes to sign with, he can just refuse to sign with any other team. The Twins will be in a position of either accepting his choices for a sign and trade deal, or another team’s straight trade deal. It’s an uneven playing field.

And now we get to the bad news.

Because the Twins can’t even do that. They can’t get the minimum return they might receive if they trade Santana to a different team. They can’t send him somewhere at the trade deadline to a team desperate for an ace. Because of the no-trade clause they can’t do any of that without Santana’s approval, and once he settles on the team he wants, there is no point in granting that approval. The Twins will be in an “or-else” position with Santana’s chosen trading partner. And the only incentive the other team has for making the deal early is they’ll have Santana for some portion of next year.

So if you’re a team that wants Santana, what should your strategy be? Put together a list of killer talent to offer the Twins? Hell, no. The winning strategy is to lobby Santana without actually getting charged with MLB’s tampering charges. You can bet that some players from the Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are offering to take Johan on some vacations this winter.

And the Twins strategy? It sounds like they’re doing it:
Open negotiations and as part of those negotiations, get a counter-proposal. They desperately needed to have some idea of what Santana and his agent have in mind for money and what else he might be looking for. Now they need find a couple of teams that can fulfill those wishes and play them off against each other. In theory, if the Twins can find a team that satisfies Santana’s wishes, they at least have a decent chance that a deal will get done.

Keep this on the QT. The larger the media circus that surrounds this, the harder it will be to be to enforce the non-tampering rules, and that is the single most important strategy the Twins have. If Santana, who shouldn’t be talking to anyone, chooses a single team, the battle is lost.

Understand that the Twins have a no-trade clause, too. This is important in two ways. First, they don’t need to trade this guy, which theoretically puts them on even ground with Santana. If they don't make a deal, Santana will need to stay healthy and put up huge numbers for another year. There’s some leverage in that.

But it's equally important when talking to other teams. As they quietly approach potential trading partners, the Twins need to make it VERY clearn that if they even get a whiff that the other team is dealing with Santana directly, they're out. After all, the Twins have incentives to keep Santana too, like a chance at winning in 2008 and the draft picks that will come back as compensation if he walks as a free agent.

This is a tough situation for the Twins. It requires some creativity, persuasion and serious poker skills. And for Twins fans, it’s going to require some patience, trust and probably lower expectations. Because it’s not likely to turn out the way we’ve pictured so far. And if the tightrope act falters, it has the potential to be a full-blown disaster.

So, are you still having fun?

Hunter a White Sock within a week?

Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin in earnest. The Sun-Times is reporting that:

"Sources both in the Sox organization and the camp of
free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter have told the Sun-Times that the two sides could be signing a contract within the week."

The door is left open later:

"While an agreement had not been reached as of Monday afternoon, the source said that 'the climate'’ was there for a deal to be announced soon, unless another team comes in at the last second and blows Hunter away with an offer."

Apparantly, the Jon Garland - Orlando Cabrera trade that the White Sox made yesterday was in anticipation of this possible deal. There is no mention of what the terms of the contract might be.

It's interesing, and a little terrifying, but it's also mighty short on details for a done deal. Let's see what else is dug up here before we get too carried away.

Doing The Little Things Right

It used to be a point of pride. Now it's a ridiculed cliche. "The Twins Do The Little Things Right".

Usually that phrase has been applied to on-field play (though not deservedly this last year) but it's also been generally applicable to player personnel moves (though not deservedly this last year). Twins fans hope that attention to detail returns on the field. Twins Geeks hope it returns off the field.

Mabye it is. When I turned a critical eye toward the Monroe trade on Tuesday, it still wasn't a trade, only a rumor. But, as usual, the details matter, and they're showing some creative thinking on behalf of the organization.

To be honest, I don't think I've ever heard of a trade quite like it. The Twins and Cubs structured this so the Twins basically acquired exlusive negotiating rights to Monroe for the next month. If they don't get a deal done, they basically lose nothing. And if they do get a deal done, they lose very little besides some money.

Some of the criticisms still stand. Monroe still is nothing more than a deceivingly shaky fallback option. Also, the most the Twins can reduce his salary is 20%, which would mean he makes around $4 million next year, which is still probably too much for someone with his history. And finally, it's not clear the Twins truly understand that their biggest and riskiest investment is playing time.

But there's enough positives to make me gloss over the queasy feeling the accompanied the news that the Twins apparently made this deal without understanding whether they could negotiate a 20% or 40% pay cut for Monroe from last year's salary. Hey, what's a million dollars when you've got Carl's checkbook, right?

Or could it be that is another ploy, used to negotiate Monroe closer to the 20% cut? Far-fetched? Maybe, but my paradigm on this new regime has shifted a little. Objectively, all that's changed over the last 48 hours is that the Twins will likely spend $1 million less than I thought, may not give up anything from their minors, and may even throw Monroe back like an undersized walleye. Should that really be enough to change my view?

Maybe not. But the outside-the-box nature of this trade raises the possiblity that the Twins are suddenly acting a little smarter - and more creatively - than we're used to. For Twins fans starved for some pride in the local nine, that's not such a little thing.

Queasy

And the Bill Smith era begins with....well, a kind of queasy feeling.

The rumored trade for outfielder Craig Monroe is going to be spun as a risk-taking move, and maybe even a steal. It will be taken as a sign that the Twins are willing to part with minor league talent to win now. Focus will be place on Monroe’s 30 home run power and RBI ability in 2006, and on the effect injuries had on him last year. But most of all, Monroe’s right-handed bat will look like a possible replacement for Torii Hunter’s offensive production.

And all of these are kind of true.

But there are other truths, too, and they’re truths that lead to a queasy feeling inside. Starting with:

Monroe is not as good as his numbers.
Simply put, Monroe is a right-handed version of Jacque Jones. His power is balanced out by his lack of plate discipline, and his numbers were enhanced by where he was hitting in Detroit’s lineup. In 2006, he hit 28 home runs and tallied 89 RBI, both impressive totals. He also hit just .255 and got on base at just a .301 clip. If you’ve been pining for those all-or-nothing at-bats that Jacque used to take, you’re going to like Mr. Monroe.

He’s older than you think.
Monroe burst onto the scene with Detroit just a couple of years ago, so it’s easy to think of him as a prospect. He’s not. He’s going to be 31 by the time spring training starts and one way or the other his decline started last year, when he hit just .219. Whether that was due to the patellar tendonitis and back problems, his age, or some combination of both doesn’t really matter. Either way, there’s no real upside here beyond 2008.

He’s expensive.
Believe it or not, the Twins came into this offseason with money to burn, having something like $25 million that they could throw at free agents or retaining players like Hunter. Monroe is now going to take up at least $5 million of that, unless they have the foresight to insist that they negotiate a contract with him prior to the trade, which is REALLY unlikely to have happened for a player of his stature.

He’s likely not worth the prospect they gave up.
If the Twins gave up anything more than a warm bucket of spit, they likely got rooked in this deal. If Monroe wasn’t traded, he was going to be non-tendered and would have been available on the free agent market. It’s unlikely the Twins would’ve had to pay him the salary they’ll need to now if they had gone that path.

The only real positive news here is that the Twins have reduced their risk level a bit if Hunter leaves. But they did so by acquiring a bargain level veteran who isn’t as good as his stats, with very little upside, who they’re likely paying too much. And so Twins fans are left hoping that the Twins know something that we don’t. Or we’re left trusting that the Twins scouting is doing a better job than they’ve done the last couple years with similar players.

Or we’re left embracing a slightly familiar queasy feeling.

On Losing Control

Philadelphia Phillies announce they've signed JC Romero (LHP) to a three-year contract for $12 million.

Blink. Blink.

I learned first hand that there are plenty of pitfalls to being an earnest young man, starting with the limits it places on your sense of appropriate behavior. Earnest, serious analysis has its time and place, but there are also times to be stupid. Or, in the words of Walter “Gib” Gibson, “What the hell's wrong with being stupid once in awhile?”

The foremost example of this philosophy is matters of the heart. There is precious little room for analysis in intimacy. Letting someone you barely know into your bed and falling asleep naked next to him or her is an act of insanity. You need to play a ridiculous game, and act the fool to get anywhere near love.

So you had better get a highly developed sense of humor, and quick. That walk of shame can crush oneself quick if you can’t laugh at your own actions, weaknesses, and kitschy sexual predilections. Just what was it that drew you to her, exactly? Where did that feeling come? And most importanly, what were you thinking?

You’re a good way towards the answers when you can shake your head and laugh at the results.

I hope this morning Philadelphia Phillies GM Pat Gillick is laughing at himself and the chemical hold that JC Romero seemingly has on him, because I assure you, he’s likely to be fielding some calls from his fraternal brothers.

“Mr. Gillick? Mr. Ryan is on line one.”“Dude, you know he went after my manager’s door with a bat, right? A BAT. And that was after we’d sent him down to the minors to get his head straight. Sleep tight, buddy.”
“I’ve told Mr. Epstein several times that you’re busy, but he keeps calling. He’s on line two.”
“You just can’t get enough of my throwaways, can you buddy? Listen, I hear you, it’s closing time, you’re in the game and he looks like the complete package. But let me warn you – no control. Or maybe you like that type, eh?”

The danger is that this wasn’t just a temporary case of beer goggles. Maybe Gillick really is smitten. He’s a sharp guy, but even the smartest people think that this time is different. Maybe the object of my affection has changed. Or worse, maybe I can be the one that changes them.

I can see where Gillick might think that, seeing as Romero had a 1.24 ERA in his time with the Phillies. But his fundamental problem – the aforementioned lack of control – doesn’t seem to have changed. In his 36 spectacular innings with the Phils, he still walked 25 guys, which is about par. He succeeded despite that wildness because nobody could actually hit him. Which He raises the possibility that maybe the NL batters just haven’t figured out to show a little patience with him.

Now they’ll have three years to work on it, which is damn near an eternity for formerly free-falling Romero. After all, two years ago he was worth $2.2 million and a mid-level prospect. One year ago, he was worth $1.6 million. Five months ago, he was available for free. But today he’s worth $12 million over three years.

And, hopefully, a good self-deprecating laugh.