Closing the Book

Sometime next month, the major league home run record will likely be broken. It will invite considerable media coverage, but not the kind that usually accompanies a historic milestone. This coverage will be fueled by controversy, and judging by the preliminary angles, mostly negative. And one word will be repeated over and over: cheater.

It will be applied to Barry Bonds, who has become Sarah Good in professional sports’ latest witch hunt. We know that Barry Bonds cheated. He’s admitted as much, though he says he did so unknowingly. But cheating, and lying about it, isn’t unusual in baseball’s history. Corked bats, spit balls, rain delay tactics and even Metrodome air-conditioning vents – all have been used with little more acknowledgement than a wink.

Using steroids is somehow different (though I would challenge this inconsistency as well). It has ignited the white-hot zealots’ flames and Major League Baseball has caved to every demand. That’s fine concerning the implementation of long overdue testing procedures or strict penalties. But the heat has kept MLB from taking any responsibility. For the record, MLB didn’t have a policy against steroids, didn’t have a test for them, and didn’t have any enforcement in place. Taking steroids was slightly more legal than a catcher blocking the plate, which at least is technically against the rules, even if it isn’t enforced.

Rather than admit this oversight and turn the page, MLB used the crisis to blame players, which had the pleasant side effect of vilifying the players’ union. Bonds is at the top of the wanted list, so instead of celebrating a milestone, we’re left to debate whether the commissioner of baseball should attend.

Damn right he should attend. It was on his watch that the problem flourished and it was on his watch that owners and players made millions of dollars while looking the other way. Bud Selig should hand the home run ball to Bonds, and use the post-game attention to say what we all know:

• The fault lies with the owners and commissioner as much as it does with any player.
• The records for this jaded era will stand, just like they did for other jaded eras, like when African-Americans weren’t allowed to compete.
• MLB has implemented the most comprehensive and strict system in professional sports.
• And most importantly, let’s all get on with our lives.

Thanks Anne

The word came down yesterday, and most people who are fans of the blog medium recognized the signals. First are life changes, some gaps in posting, alternate writers, fewer and shorter posts, and no real end in sight. So it wasn’t a huge surprise that Anne Ursu gave us her farewell post at Bat-Girl.com yesterday.

But it still sucks ass bats.

Anne was more than just a Twins blogger, and more than just a fantastic, creative writer. In my mind (and it’s admittedly a limited mind literarily) she pioneered a new style of sports writing, in the same way that Rob Neyer pioneered daily sabremetric baseball analysis, or Bill Simmons pioneered the fan’s point of view. She made real sports figures became fictional super heroes, characters in one of her stories, adding a dimension to sports that went way beyond anything to do with the actual games.

So while I enjoyed (and will hopefully again enjoy) her writing, what I really appreciate is the impact she’s had on the future of sports writing. She demonstrated what can be done, and inspired others to give it a try, and there are plenty of disciples that will continue to play with the medium. More than the morning laughs and the head-shaking off-the-wall concoctions, I think that will be her true legacy, even if its source is mostly forgotten in twenty years when it’s become a commonplace writing style.

In the meantime, I think it’s safe to say that our efforts are a fairly poor substitute, and it will be that way for a while. There is always a lull before the next writer takes the breakthrough to an even higher level. But it’s finding a place, and that is one of the real benefits of the Internet. When someone like Anne has a breakthrough, it’s like a virus, except like one in a science fiction novel, because it’s a virus that makes everyone it touches better.

That couldn’t happen a couple of decades ago, or at least it was rarer. Now, it just takes one person of vision and courage. Before, that person was just the beginning. At the very least they had to have an editor who matched them, not to mention an owner, or a president of media operations or an editorial board or whatever. Anne’s writing, as good as it is, wouldn’t have flown fifteen years ago in any major publication. In fact, it wouldn’t have gotten close, save maybe for a campus publication.

Now? Frankly, I can’t figure out why the hell some major publication hasn’t started paying her for a weekly baseball story. Surely they realize that this isn’t a niche style, accessible only to a few? That’s the beauty of her writing – it can be enjoyed even more by the casual fan. How has this not happened? I can only assume that Anne has had offers but decided to focus on her writing career instead. Either that, or every editor of any print publication in this town is a moron.

(I assure you, when the revolution comes and I’m in charge of a sports publication that actually makes money, this will be my first order of business. And “No” will not be an option, Anne. If you turn me down I will dedicate my life into turning Dash into a White Sox fan, just out of spite. A skinny, shirtless, hopped-up White Sox fan who thinks that Tom Gamboa is an Evil Teletubby. Ok, those last two words were redundant. I’m a little drunk. But you get my point.)

In the meantime, I wish Anne and John and Dash all the best in her little vacation. You deserve every extra minute you can spend with each other and probably five time more. Thank you for sharing your talent, inspiring our efforts, showing some courage and working your ass off for us over the last three years. It made things better.

Spoiled?

The Blue Jays are coming to town, and that got be to thinking: How is it that the Twins have been to four postseasons in the past five years, and the Blue Jays haven't been to any. And haven't been particularly close? AFter all, this is a franchise that is run by a well-respected GM, is historically known for developing players, and has had a huge influx of money to throw around. So what happened?



Pop quiz hot shot: Who were the top two teams in the AL East last year?
If you thought the Yankees and the Red Sox, you were right for most of the season, but the Blue Jays finished a game ahead of them, ten games behind the Yankees. This year, they find themselves that far out in May. What happened?

The easy answer is injuries. Stud closer BJ Ryan blew a couple of saves before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Slugger Troy Glaus has had a DL stint and there’s been talk of him having another. Leadoff hitter Reed Johnson sat out a game with a sore back in April. Turns out it was a herniated disk that required surgery, and he’ll be out until sometime in June. Starting catcher Greg Zaun caught a foul tip off his hand, which has kept him out for a month, and likely will be out a few more weeks. But the “When It Rains, It Pours” Award goes to ace pitcher Roy Halladay, who is out until at least next week after an emergency appendectomy.

But the other reason is something that Twins fans can relate to a really weak back of the rotation, seemingly by design. The Blue Jays don’t have a single starter outside of Halladay and AJ Burnett who has more than two quality starts. General Manager JP Riccardi clearly subscribes to the sabremetric principle that it’s OK to overpay for excellence, but mediocrity should be nabbed on the cheap. Unfortunately, that’ means his starting rotation consists of two ribeyes (who are making $22.5 million combined this year) and a lot of ground chuck.

Maybe more disturbing is that the ten games back they finished last year is as close as they’ve finished to the AL East division leader since Riccardi became GM in 2002. He received a contract extension (through 2010) before their spending spree last year, and he clearly has some strengths. He’s been pretty good about finding average performers at below-average prices, which explains all the fifth starters in the rotations. He’s been active in juggling his roster for deals, acquiring Glaus last year, and dumping Corey Koskie. And the enormous contracts that he’s awarded free agents have mostly been to young and talented players (Ryan, Burnett) who have a decent chance at earning that money (if they could only stay healthy).

And yet the high water mark is ten games back? Part of that is the division, but they’ve also had some money to toss around, as demonstrated by the ridiculous contract he gave to Koskie a couple of years ago and the $18 million he threw at 38-year-old Frank Thomas this winter. But what seems to have really hurt the Blue Jays is that they haven’t added any high-impact players into their farm system under Riccardi’s watch. That continued this year as their best prospect, 23-year-old outfielder Adam Lind, was called up in mid-April and has struggled, including being reduced to a bench player over the last week. But as you look at both sides of the ledger, you can’t help but wonder why exactly this team hasn’t been truly competitive in a half-dozen years.

The answer seems to be broader than this team, and the answer seems to be that getting to the playoffs in Major League Baseball isn’t as easy as it is in hockey or basketball or football, where about half the teams get in. To make the postseason in baseball, and awful lot has to go right at the same time, and the margin of error can be even smaller in a competitive division like the AL East. That’s a reality that Twins fans should know all too well after the years of suffering in the 90s, but we may have forgotten more recently.

More Notes on K/BB (Part II)

Yesterday I commented on a couple of players, and courtesy of a two stupid glasses of Coke I drank at supper, it looks like I'll have the opportunity to continue tonight. (Getting old sucks.)

Denys Reyes
Sunday afternoon, I wondered what exactly was wrong with Reyes, and yesterday we found out that it was his shoulder. That's a reasonable, albeit convenient, way to explain his performance this year. But looking at Reyes's career numbers, one isn't struck by how he's slipped this year, but rather by how crazy good he was last year:

Yr      BB    SO    ERA
1999    39    72   3.80
2000    29    36   4.53
2001    35    52   4.93
2002    45    59   5.34
2003    10    16  10.66
2004    50    91   4.75
2005    32    35   5.15
2006    15    49   0.89
2007     9    10   5.84

Ignore the ERA column, and just compare those strikeouts to those walks. Last year Reyes' ratio was 3:1, which damn near doubles the results of most of his career. And this year it's close to 1:1, which is a lot closer to what it's been like for most of his career.

Again, this is in the good news/bad news category. It may very well be that while Reyes shoulder is part of the problem, it isn't the whole problem. On the other hand, if the Twisn can get a pitcher as historically bad as Reyes to improve his command for a year, there is still plenty of hope for Ramon Ortiz.

Torii Hunter
Hunter has been a torrid streak for most of the year, and damn but he's fun to watch when he's on fire. "Clutch" may not be a demonstrable skill, but it's sure fun to watch a supremely talented player bat when he's full of confidence, and Hunter is that player right now. A couple of years ago, he was being tagged with with a reputation of not coming through in big spots. This year, nothing could be further from the truth.

The question, especially in a contract year, is whether it will last. Torii has always been a streaky hitter, and I'd argue that his hot streak in 2002 was what lead to his current contract - a contract the Twins might not have signed in hindsight.

The biggest criticism of Hunter as a batter has been his selectivity. He chases too many bad pitches. He has always been a dangerous hitter, but lacked the plate discipline to become a hitter you trusted in tight spots. Good pitchers felt they could pitch to him. And for what it's worth, his recent hot streak doesn't demonstrate any change in that free-swinging philosophy:

YEAR BB  SO BB/K
1999 26  72 0.36
2000 18  68 0.26
2001 29 125 0.23
2002 35 118 0.30
2003 50 106 0.47
2004 40 101 0.40
2005 34  65 0.52
2006 45 108 0.42
2007  5  29 0.17

Whatever adjustment Hunter has made, it hasn't helped his batting eye. If anything, he seems to be less selective. Stay tuned.

Nick Punto
I was ready to put chuck Little Nicky Punto under a steamroller on Sunday afternoon. His two hits didn't look half bad in the box score, but he also got himself out on the basepaths, and then failed miserably - twice - to get the tying run home from third with one out. It drove me to look at some numbers for him as well. There's some relatively good news there:

SEASON BB SO   AVG
2005   36 86 0.239
2006   47 68 0.290
2007   17 25 0.243

Again, look at the ratio between walks and strikeouts. Last year Punto discovered plate discipline, and coincidentally raised his batting average about 50 points. This year the batting average has been low, but it's been steadily climbing, and the the batting eye still looks like it's there. Punto might end up being the same player he was last year.

Now, you can debate whether that's enough from a third baseman, but make sure you question why it was enough last year, but not this year. I know this - it's certainly not enough if the Piranha can't also execute the things his team needs, like laying down a bunt on a suicide squeeze.

Weekend Notes: Scott and Ramon

A few notes on a few players as I watch the Twins piddle away the last game of this series...

Scott Baker
By far the most significant development of the weekend was Baker's start on Saturday, brining hope that the perceived abundance of pitching that the Twins have in Rochester is as ready as we hoped. The Twins have been and will continue to be criticized for the way they balanced their young and old pitching.

That's a little ironic, because their ulimtate solution makes everyone feel better about themselves. Those that felt the Twins should have promoted the youngsters early can say "they told you so", and those that felt the kids should start the season in Rochester can attribute Baker's success to how the Twins handled them. Really, it's a win-win for all armchair GMs.

(And the real GM is likely pretty pleased, too).

Ramon Ortiz
The contrast between Saturday's and Sunday's starts will likely add some fuel to the calls for examining Ortiz's place in the rotation. He lost yesterday on the two biggest criticisms he's received this year from the sabrementric types: he gave up hits and he gave up homeruns. But looking at his record historically, the home runs and hits he gives up aren't the key to his success.

See how that ERA line goes up and down in step with the K/BB and the BB/9 rate? Home run rate, strikeout rate, hit rate - none of them match the trend in ERA nearly as well as the two metrics above, and those metrics are what we use to deterine a pitcher's control. When Ortiz has his control, he's good. When he doesn't, he isn't.

That's eerily similar to what the Twins have been saying for the last couple of weeks. Ortiz's walk rate is the lowest in his career right now. In yesterday's loss he walked nobody, and he threw 2/3 of his pitches for strikes. Ortiz's performance over the last few weeks has been shaky, but there are plenty of reasons to believe he could return to April's form.

Shoot, I have at least two more I'd like to talk about from the offensive side, but I gotta run. We'll talk about those tomorrow, and don't let me forget to rant about Denys Reyes.

Time is Money (II)

You’ll recall that when Matt Garza was sent down we researched his service time and found out that it would behoove the Twins to call him up very late in May to bump his free agency back a year, and until the all-star break to bump his arbitration back a year. Let's do the same with Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Scott Baker.

(By the way, if you want some of the specifics, click on that Garza link. It talks about how the service time is set up in more detail.)

Glen Perkins
Service Time coming into the year: 13 days
Free Agency Clock: The Twins called up Perkins about 10 days into the season. Ouch. That means if he stays on the roster all season he'll be eligible for free agency after 2012, whereas if they send him back down for about a week, he'll be eligible after 2013. That's not a bad reason to not want to rush him into the rotation.
Arbitation Clock: If he stays in the league for the whole year, he'll be eligible for arbitration after 2009. To bump it back to 2010, he would need to spend aproximately 11 weeks back in AAA.

Kevin Slowey
Service Time coming into the year: 0 days
Free Agency Clock: Because Slowey didn't start the season with the Twins, he won't be eligible until 2013 whether he's called up now or called up at the end of September.
Arbitration Clock: If Slowey is called up now and sticks, he'll be eligible for arbitration after 2009. If he isn't called up until the end of June, he'll be eligible for arbitration after 2010.

Scott Baker
Service Time coming into the year: 165 days
Free agency clock: If Slowey is called up any time prior to the middle of September, he'll be eligibile for free agency after the 2012 season, so there is no real impact.
Arbitration Clock: There also is no real impact on his arbitration clock if Baker is called up now. He's alreay missed the 30 days he likely needed to be a "Super 2", so if he's called up and stays, he'll be eligible for arbitration following the 2009 season. To bump it back a year, the Twins would need to wait until May of 2008.

As I mentioned already, there are also two good reasons to keep Garza down a bit longer. This shows there is a good reason to delay Slowey's debut by another month, and a good reason to keep Perkins in the bullpen and send him back down when they face interleague play in a month.

But Baker is a different story. His critical time is over for both clocks. It'll be interesting to see if the Twins deem him the "most ready".

Get To Know: Edwin Encarnacion

"Timing is everything," or so they say. The older I get, the more I'm becoming convinced that timing is a fundamental skill that some people have, some people learn, and some people don't. AndI wonder if timing isn't what is hurting the Twins most at third base right now.

A couple of days ago, I talked about possible options at third base, but there is another name out there, one that's damn intriguing, and I missed it because I just didn't know that much about the guy. The sad truth is that when I heard about an "Encarnacion" on the Reds, I thought people were talking about the older outfielder, Juan Encarnacion, who I couldn't believe was still in the league. Turns out, he is, and he just returned, but that isn't the Encarnacion that's intriguing.

Instead, the guy on the Reds is Edwin Encarnacion, a 24-year-old right-handed third baseman with some pop in his bat, about a year's worth of major league experience, who was recently replaced in the Reds lineup. Yes, the same Reds that are run by ex-Twin assistant GM Wayne Krivsky, who has already swung a couple of deals with the Twins and who seems to covet Twins pitchers.

At first blush, that seems like a pretty good fit. It's fun to speculate about upgrading all kinds of positions, but the one place the Twins look like they really will need to upgrade long-term is third base. The Twins will give Jason Kubel every chance to find himself, and Rondell White every chance to find his health, because both of those guys can be middle-of-the-order talents. There are no such delusions about Nick Punto or Jeff Cirillo.

Unfortunatly, Encarnacion is not without hit blemishes, and they're blemishes the Twins might pay more attention to than most. For starters, his defense at third base is cringe inducing. He was also benched earlier this season for not running out a popup. And he hasn't hit a lick this year, which is why he lost his job and in now in AAA.

On the other hand, he's been young for nearly every level he's been in. Last year he hit .276/.359/.473 as a 23-year-old, and it doesn't look like he was protected much from facing right-handed pitchers. He also didn't show a significant split one way or the other. The biggest concern with him is whether he can hit away from Cincinatti's bandbox, as his road numbers were significantly lower.

But probably the thing that would shoot down any deal for Encarnacion in the short term is the timing. A trade for Encarnacion, perhaps for a minor league pitcher or one of the Twins relievers, is exactly the kind of deal that might be made during the offseason. But to make it now reeks of panic.

After all, it isn't like Encarnaion is a sure thing, and it isn't clear that a platoon of Punto and Cirillo couldn't outhit him for this year. That platoon might be possible once White returns from the DL. Plus, Punto also isn't likely to be this bad. Finally, the Twins just committed to Punto for a two-year contract, and targeted and brough in Cirillo this offseason. Isn't it kind of early to reverse course after six weeks, even if the results so far have been putrid?

Six weeks from now, if Encarnacion doesn't work out, Twins Territory will be pining for a different change in direction. And then we'll also be wondering why our organization can't stay the course, and ride out a rough stretch, and stick with a plan.

A player like Encarnacion, if the Twins think he has a future, might be a great addition, especially this offseason. But right now, the timing is wrong. And timing, they tell us, is everything.

The Move We've All Been Waiting For

Minnesota Twins designate Sidney Ponson(P-RH) for assignment and promote Garret Jones(DH-L) from AAA-Rochester.

Well, this is the move. This is The Move We've All Been Waiting For, except that it isn't. It's just removing the obstacle that allows the Twins to make the move that we've all been waiting for. (That Jack built?)

Expectations were low, but to be fair, Sidney Ponson ended up being considerably better than was advertised in several ways. There were no hints of off-the-field issues. He took responsibility for every start, and he didn't always need to, because the Twins played very poorly behind him a couple of times. Finally, he didn't work himself into trouble too often, such as being afraid to attack the strike zone. He pitched like a professional, throwing his pitches and daring hitters to hit it.

Unfortunately for Ponson, they obliged. The oft cited statistic about giving up twice as many baserunners as innings was bad, but not as bad as the 54 hits in 37.2 innings. With that kind of hittability, it's damn commendable for him to pitch like he did. Ponson looks like he needs to rediscover his stuff at AAA right now.

The beat reporters are saying that's unlikely to happen as a Rochester Red Wing, though it is a possible result of being designated for assignment. I'm not as sure. It must be apparent to Ponson that he needs to redefine himself at that level, and the Rochester staff could use a veteran presence. And it's not like the Twins would hesitate to turn to him again if he were to find success there. Terry Ryan also has a track recrod of making veterans like him available to another team that's looking if there isn't an opportunity.

But like I said, this isn't truly The Move We've All Been Waiting For (TMWABWF), unless you're a Twins fans who likes to play the lottery. Garret Jones is essentially a Twins Scratch Game ticket, and it's one the Twins have saved for a while because it didn't look like a winner.

Remember Dustan Mohr, who came up through the Twins system despite not being drafted by them? Jones is similar. He's has been with the organization since 2002, but he was originally with the Braves who let him go (I think he was released) because he swung and missed too often. He continued that trend with the Twins, until 2004, when he was finally promoted out of A ball, and had some real success in AA-New Britain, hitting .311.

For the last two years, he's been in Rochester, hitting 45 home runs, but batting just .241 with 230(!) strikeouts. This year he's hitting .316, but has struck out 25 times already, so it's not apparent much has changed. On the other hand, Tom Kelly reportedly met with Twins management this weekend, which bodes well for Jones, because Kelly is the last guy who would recommend promoting a player like Jones if Jones wasn't adjusting.

My best guess is that his role will be that of designated hitter versus right-handed pitchers, though it's worth noting he hit lefties well in limited (just 22) at-bats this year. He'll practice in the outfield outside of games, but this is the first year he's ever played there, so I wouldn't expect him to replace Jason Kubel or Jason Tyner there. This may just be an example of the Twins finding themselves with an open roster spot and deciding to see if this guy they held back for a couple of years can prove them wrong.

TMWABWF is likely happening much later this week, since the Twins don't need to fill Ponson's spot in the rotation until next Saturday night. Everyone will focus on who the Twins want to call-up, but the real problem is going to be who the Twins send down.

This latest swap means the Twins are down to eleven pitchers, which is as many as they want for interleague play. So the obvious move would be to move Glen Perkins from the bullpen to the rotation. The beat reporters seem to think that's not likely, because Gardenhire like Perkins in his left-handed bullpen role, but then what are the options? The obvious choice to send down would be the seventh bullpen arm, but that's Perkins again. So why not move him into the rotation?

If Gardy wants his two bullpen lefties, he's going to need to shorten his bench. But that makes Jones the obvious choice to be sent down, just four days after being called up? Maybe Luis Rodriguez, but that leaves the bench without a true middle infield backup. Or Tyner, but that means more Kubel in left field. Or Ford, but he was just called up, too.

So unless the Twins get an injury, I still think it's going to be Perkins starting that game next Saturday. He's stretched out a bit after Saturday night, he's been having success, and there just isn't another great option. It's also probably the least satisfying option for TMWABWF. After all, we've seen Perkins, and he has been far from dominant.

You might want that last sentence to sink in a bit, because it serves as a reality check on TMWABWF. Young pitchers are like recent graduates - their potential is what makes them exciting, not necessarily their immediate performance. Whether it's Perkins or Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker or Matt Garza that is pitching on Saturday night, we may be getting what we've been waiting for, but not neceesarily what we want.

Just Some Stuff

Time for a new kind of story. On Thursday nights, The Voice Of Reason wants to sit down for an hour and watch Grey's Anatomy, and I kick myself out of the room for an hour so I'm not tempted to get sucked in by it. And so I find myself with one hour of time to spew forth a bunch of random points I've been saving up all week - sounds like a solid story to me. Hell, it sounds like several solid stories, and I might very well use them next week. But for now, let's call it "Just Some Stuff".

Letting my imagination get the best of me....(Part 1)
The initial reports about Joe Mauer's injury mentioned a strained muscle, a lump and some bleeding. While everyone seems to thing that Joe Mauer will be back inside of two weeks, it did seem strange that all that detail would be mentioned. And I got downright nervous when Will Carrol mentioned the bump and linked to a description of myositis ossificans, which would keep him out considerably longer. It's a condition where the bone develops a lump, and it happens when a player suffers a strain but doesn't deal with it.

Considering the reports that this strain was what kept Mauer out of the lineup a couple of weeks ago, that'a a little worrisome. And then there are questions like "Why did they just put him on the DL now?"

Letting my imagination get the best of me...(Part 2)
Yesterday I wrote about how the hysteria around upgrading the Twins lineup needs to cool a bit, because what we see now is not what we will likely see in June. But there's a caveat there that I didn't mention, and it has to do with the timeframe for Mauer and Rondell White to return from injuries. This week it was reported that White should be back by the end of the month, but I've also heard that he might not be back until the All-Star break, or even the end of the year. I don't know what to believe.

If the prospect for White's return is not favorable, the entire strategy changes. This lineup is then exactly one bat short, and that bat can be any player at any position so long as they can hit the damn ball. If the Twins suspect that White cannot be counted on this year, patience needs to go out the window. Judging by Terry Ryan's public statements, he's either convinced White will return fairly soon, or bluffing the rest of the league for a better deal.

Playing the Game the WRONG Way
I damn near wrote a story earlier this week with that title, which is why I started applauding in my car when I heard Ron Gardenhire's post-game comments earlier today. A LOT of back-patting goes on about this team, and it can drive the cynical fan a bit nuts, but it's worth noting that this team does win games because of doing some little things right.

But not this year. This year, they're breaking even at best, and the White Sox series was almost embarassing. The Twins failed to generate offense in part because they did some stupid things (like Kubel's base running blunder yesterday) and they've lost two games this week in part because of terrible fielding by pitchers. And it hasn't just been this week. It was great to hear that Gardenhire recognizes this, and it will be a lot more interesting around here as fans start to too.

Tora, Tora, Torii!
Torii Hunter's 23 game hitting streak ended today, but that doesn't lessen the impact he's had this year. Two days ago I published where the Twins ranked in offensive production by position. At catcher, they were in third place. At first base, they were in second place. But in center field, they were in first place. That's the only position at which the Twins lead the league in OPS.

Earlier this week someone asked me if I would sign Hunter for Johnny Damon money (4 years, $52 million). Two years ago, I would have never even thought about it. Last year, I would've declined. But right now, I would do it . My biggget concern wouldn't be his age, or his streakiness or his plate discipline - it would be whether he can hold up for two more years on that damn turf. We should get a better feel about that by August, but right now, I'd take that deal and be damn happy about it.

A Story I Want To Know
Jason Tyner and Jason Kubel both play in the game today, but Kubel is in left field and Tyner is DH? Gardenhire isn't an idiot - there's gotta be a story there. I sure hope one of the reporters asks about it.

A Speed Problem
The Twins are forced to field a slap-and-hit team because of injuries. They're facing a division rival at home. And that division rival is terrible at throwing out stolen bases. And yet the Twins get zero stolen bases and zero caught stealings?

This isn't totally unique - the White Sox are doing something such that nobody is trying to steal against them despite having only thrown out three attempts all year. But if you're the Twins, don't you have to risk challenging them on that? I saw one stolen base attempt today, and it ended up being for naught because Hunter lined the ball right over second base to the player covering the bag. But that was it. I'd love to hear someone's take on what happened this series such that the Twins started playing station-to-station ball.

That's it. Grey's is over and so am I. See ya on Monday

Fluffy’s Hope

You know how your vapid dog will become clinically depressed when you’re not home, and then reaches a state of otherwordly Nirvana as you walk in the door, primarily because she’s convinced herself that you were gone forever? The Twins season has been a lot like that, with Twins Territory playing the part of Fluffy.

For months we talked about how dismal the starting pitching was going to be, and the mistake the Twins were making by not trusting rotation slots to tomorrow’s rising stars. We reached a fever pitch as spring training concluded, and Carlos Silva was chosen over Matt Garza. The kvetching has continued all season, now as a nearly constant refrain of ‘Ditch Sidney Ponson’. We’re united and fervent in our holy crusade.

And we’ve been wrong almost every step of the way. Silva has been fantastic, and seemingly getting better. Garza can’t throw strikes in Rochester, and if the organization had to choose today, he would probably be fourth in line to be called up. We had very few concerns about Ponson at the end of the spring, and he’s been brutal. Meanwhile young stud Boof Bonser has matched Ponson bone-headed play for bone-headed play, and been twice as likely to work himself into trouble (though three times as likely to work himself out). And yet nobody mentions this.

But, of course, the biggest goof is that the pitching has been the team’s biggest strength. We continue to harp about Ponson despite the fact that the biggest problem has been the offense. Which brings us back to Fluffy the wonder dog.

The offense has struggled mightily over the last couple of weeks, but the calls for an offensive overhaul are making the same mistake that we made when the team broke spring training with three questionable veterans. And the same mistake that Fluffy is making when we’re not home. Namely, assuming that the way things are now are the way things are always going to be.

We haven’t seen the Twins real lineup since the week. The Twins have had four everyday position players miss at least a week of time, and three of them were being counted on to contribute power. The last two are out with muscle injuries, and all of them should be healthy (knock, knock) before the season is two months old.

The most significant loss has been that of Rondell White. White’s first impression last year was nausea-inducing, but guess which player was the best right-handed hitter in terms of batting average and OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) after the All-Star Break last year? That’s right. Only Justin Morneau outperformed White. Replacing his bat with some combination of Mike Redmond and Jason Tyner isn’t just a decline - it’s a punchline.

It isn’t just injuries that might change the performance of this team. Players, and especially young players, can drastically improve their production. The daily newspaper speculates that the Twins should target a player like 25-year-old Cubs outfielder Matt Murton, who would likely replace (drum roll) 25-year-old outfielder Jason Kubel. Kubel has been twice the prospect Murton ever was, and debuted in the majors a year earlier than Murton. The supremely insecure hitter that Twins fans are watching now might be very different by the end of July.

Even the position that the Twins should be most concerned about is likely to improve. Nick Punto thrived for most of last year because Punto was a .300 hitter for most of last year. This year, he isn’t (.229 BA, 622 OPS). That’s one of the reasons that Jeff Cirillo was added to the roster, because he can at least platoon with Punto against left-handed pitchers. Instead, he’s also been hurt almost all season, and the Twins haven’t faced a southpaw starter since he’s returned.

All of which is not trying to say that the Twins shouldn’t be looking to get better. But Twins fans, and especially newspaper columnists who pride themselves on knowing something about this game, may want to take a step back from the ledge. Or at least recognize that things likely won’t be like this forever.

Offensive Options (Part I)

So, there’s plenty of wailing and gnashing of teeth about the offense, but so far there have been precious few solutions offered, other than the ubiquitous catchphrase “Replace Sidney Ponson.” Obvious, replacing Sir Mullet isn’t going to help anyone score runs (with the possible exception of Rochester’s next opponent), so what exactly should the Twins do?

We can start by diagnosing the problem. If you want a great offense, you need great offensive players. And right now, at several different positions, the Twins are average or below:

Rank by OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) of the Twins versus the rest of the American League at all positions:

The Twins are very good in 3 spots, average in 3 spots, and dismal in 3 spots, which would explain why this offense is in the middle-of-the-pack right now. So where are the problem areas, and what can be done about them?

Second Base – You would think that most of the lack of production at second base can attributed to Luis Castillo’s injury, and he is hitting the best of them all. But for all the praise Castillo is generating, he’s only hitting .289, and his on-base percentage is still below the league average at .330.

Even if Castillo’s had played every game at the position, the Twins would only end up one rank higher. The real issue is that second base isn’t necessarily a spot for speedy little glove men anymore. That’s not going to change for the Twins in the near future with Alexi Casilla coming up, but if second base is going to be staffed by a Piranha, it becomes more important a true shark plays someplace else.

Third Base – Nick Punto thrived for most of last year because Nick Punto was a .300 hitter for most of last year. This year, he isn’t (.229 BA, 622 OPS). There have been plenty of rumors of him battling through injuries, but the larger question is whether last year was a fluke, or whether Punto turned a corner at 28 years old.

Punto traditionally hits right-handers pretty well, so it hasn‘t helped that his possible platoon partner, Jeff Cirillo, had been almost all season (16 AB). And now, even when Cirillo is can be in the lineup, the Twins need to rely on him to play DH.

There’s not help in the minors, or at least not this year. The proverbial heir of the position, Matt Moses, is really struggling (.215, 548 OPS). Glenn Williams is down there, too, but he’s not really hitting a ton either (.256, 805). Terry Tiffee is hitting .264, but he’s doing it in Baltimore’s farm system.

Outside the organization, there might be some National League team’s willing to make a move a little later:

• 26-year-old Wilson Betemit has had a terrible start for the Dodgers, and may just be keeping the spot warm for prospect Andy Laroche. If LaRoche gets hot, Betemit would be available.
• Ty Wigginton’s name is always thrown around, but Tampa is competing this year, and Wigginton gives them a lot of flexibility.
• Colorado has Garret Atkins at third now, and 22-year-old Ian Stewart just starting AAA. They won’t give either one away, but might be willing to trade one for the right pitching.
• Morgan Ensberg has been rumored to be on the Twins wish list before, and Houston’s streaky (and injurr-prone) third baseman has been finding himself on the bench recently. Gawd knows Houston could use pitching…
  

The prospects that the Twins might be able to acquire are risky, and they would block the progress of Matt Moses, who is still only 22-years-old. Still, are some options, though and ENsberg or Betemit deal would likely take some time until things developed, so Punto and Cirillo will likely get another month to get things back on track.

We’ll talk about more tomorrow.

I gotta run…

John

White Sox Preview

I'd love to cover about 3 different stories from this weekend, but they'll need to wait because GameDay's Dugout Splinters are due tomorrow. For today, we'll run with a preview of the next team to come to town, the Chicago White Sox.

The Offseason

Going into the offseason, the White Sox were perceived as needing to fill some holes in their offense in order to give a core group of players that was in danger of moving beyond their playing primes another chance at a champioship. Maybe more challenging, they needed to do so without increasing their payroll significantly, in part because it had surged up and extra $30 million after the team won the 2005 World Series. It didn’t happen, and by the end, White Sox GM Kenny Williams was under significant fire for moves that emphasized pitching over offense, and future performance over present competition.

He certainly seemed to start well enough. The one thing the White Sox could afford to move, both in terms of talent and payroll, was a member of their expensive starting pitching core. After all, the White Sox had fireballer Brandon McCarthy stuck in long relief last year because they couldn’t find room for him in the rotation. When the Phillies expressed interested in pitcher Freddy Garcia, who was scheduled to make $10 million this year, Williams was well on his way to solving his problem.

Except that the White Sox didn’t get the offense they needed in the trade. Instead, they got back a minor leaguer that they had traded away the year before in the Jim Thome deal, and Gavin Floyd, a 24-year-old starting pitcher who had bounced back and forth between Philly and (AAA) Scranton for the last two years.

And that wasn’t the trade that really had everyone scratching their heads.

That distinction belongs to the second big trade the White Sox made. Remember McCarthy, who was going to step into the rotation to replace Garcia? Well, he’s in the rotation, but it’s the Texas Rangers rotation, because he was traded for yet another minor league starting pitcher. They received John Danks, who was the shiniest bauble in the Rangers minor leagues, but he still only had a half-year in AAA under his belt. Suddenly he and Floyd were the leading contenders for the fifth spot in the rotation.

The White Sox had gone from having six starting pitchers to having four, and they still hadn’t filled the offensive hole in center field. And while they had started restocking a minor league system that they had previously depleted in trades, they hadn’t done anything to help this group of players get back to the offseason.

And so Sox fans waited for the big free agent signing and it finally came in the person of – Darin Erstad? The 32-year-old fits Ozzie Guillen’s scrappy mold, but he also spent most of last year injured, and hasn’t been much of an offensive asset since 2004. They got him for a great price, and he’s been well-received, but when a guy has a incentive clause written into his contract for winning ‘Comeback Player of the Year’, you can understand that fanst might not be overly excited about him.

What’s Not Working

In Williams’ defense, despite some holes, the White Sox offense wasn’t a problem last year. After all, they finished third in the American League with 868 run, 67 more runs than the Twins. Unfortunately it’s a completely different story. The White Sox are last in the American League in offense, and it threatens to be the facet that keeps them out of the postseason. For instance, Jermaine Dye was a legitimate contender for MVP last season. This year, all anyone can talk about is his struggles (.217 BA, 757 OPS).

And he’s the top of the class.

Paul Konerko has been even more disappointing (.204, 657). Twins fans are upset about the start of Nick Punto (.231, 628), so you can imagine how apoplectic Sox fans are about the brutal start of third baseman Joe Crede (.208, 536). Our old friend AJ Pierzynski just had a big game this weekend, but his production (.227, 719) is still down from the rest of the season. (And, of course, he’s also only thrown out 3 of 15 stolen base attempts. If the Piranhas get on base this series, you can expect some fireworks.)

In the beginning of the season, there were some White Sox that were hitting, but they’re hurt. Jim Thome was on fire, but has been on the DL with a rib cage injury since the end of April, so the Twins won’t need to worry about him slugging the ball over the baggy. And they won’t need to worry about Scott Podsednick running rampant on the base paths, because he’s laid up with a strained abductor muscle.

What’s Working

All that, and this team is still a .500 ballclub? Yep.

They’re still solid defensively. Their starting rotation has been fairly average, with the exception of a huge huge bounce-back season by Mark Buehrle. Their bullpen has been excellent, with Bobby Jenks doing a great job of closing out games (and more importantly, staying healthy). When the offense gets healthy and back on track (and it will, they just are not this bad), this team is going to be truly scary.

Twins fans need to hope it doesn’t happen this week.

And now for something completely different....

3 things...

1. If you didn't read "What Joe Mauer Says During Mound Conversations", then stop, click and enjoy.

2. You would've found that story if you were stopping by MNGameDay.com everyday. Tom Genrich, one of the brothers who originally founded GameDay, is doing an outstanding job of keeping up with blogging posts from across the blogosphere and giving links there. Why wouldn't you let him do your legwork for you?

3. At GameDay, we're working on something a little extra this week which you may find in the programs starting next week. It's an insert sponwith the players pictures, vitals, and....

well, that was the problem. What else?

After kicking around ideas for about two-and-a-half minutes, we settled on a haiku about each player. I took a first pass at some of the players last night and I'll publish them below, but I'd like to encourage you to do a haiku about one of your favorite players. If we like it (and I know I have plenty of room for improvement on the ones below) we'll throw out mine and use yours. So show us your haiku chops...

Thanks,
John

Joe Nathan
Fastball and slider
Our closer snorts like horse
but always comes through.

Pat Neshek
Call him “Twitch-n-Pitch”
or “Sideshow Pat”. Either way,
he’s sure fun to watch.

Scott Baker
A brutal ‘06
Was his prospectdom lost?
Not yet. One more chance.

Boof Bonser
When he finds the plate,
double digit Ks result.
The Boof is on fire!

Jesse Crain
Right-handed cannon
Hastens sweet oblivion
During middle innings

Matt Garza
The Twins top prospect
Mows them down in Rochester
Just wait young Red Wing

Matt Guerrier
Three teams let him go
He found his Path to the Show
Twins found long relief

Francisco Liriano
Minnesotans knew
It was too darn good to last
Please god, make him whole.

Ramon Ortiz
Replaces Radke
Twins hope his new change-up helps
Keeps ball in ballpark

Glen Perkins
Southpaw ex-Gopher
May make starting rotation
in this year or next.

Sidney Ponson
Offseason gamble
makes Opening Day’s roster.
How long, we wonder?

Dennys Reyes
Last year he surprised
as a left-handed setup.
Another Eddie?

Juan Rincon
He owns the eighth frame
Vice-president of the best
bullpen in baseball.

Johan Santana
Two Cy Young awards.
He’s achieved one name status
‘Johan’ says it all.

Carlos Silva
Double-play artist
Without his power sinker
Needed to adjust.

Chris Heintz
When Gardenhire frets
that his catcher might get hurt
Chris gets to play here

Joe Mauer
We watch his sweet swing
And dream about the year when
he’ll chase .400

Mike Redmond
“Red Dog” backs up Joe
Teaches the team to “smell ‘em”
(RBIs. Not Joe).

Jason Bartlett
Exceptional range
Usually has no stick.
Here’s the exception.

Rick Anderson
Ortiz and Silva
Prove that Rick Anderson
is a god. Again.

Hope's Turn

This offseason, Sidney Ponson probably hoped that his career would be reborn in Florida. He just imagined it would happen in March, not May.

To some extent he was right. Twins fans will recall that nobody argued much about Ponson joining the Twins staff at the end of spring training. April has been a different story. Maybe May will be yet another?

Last night's final results could indicate that it will be. In last night’s 9-1 Twins laugher, Ponson pitched seven innings, and allowed just one run and seven base runners. He also struck out five Devil Rays, exactly when it was being speculated that he was pitching for his job.

The performance itself wasn’t quite so pretty. If Ponson felt extra pressure, it was certainly lessened by the 2-0 lead the Twins had before he threw a single pitch, and the 6-1 lead before he returned to the mound.

Early, it seemed like the Twins might need those runs, because Ponson was pretty lucky those first couple of innings. He needed to be. He hit the second batter he faced, walked the third batter, and gave up a home run ball to the fourth, which fortunately drifted just foul. He escaped the inning with no damage because the Rays were caught stealing early in the inning and finished the inning on a checked swing.

The second inning started even worse. His second pitch was deposited in the left-center field bleachers. The pitch after that was singled to right field. His next pitch saved him, as it led to a double play. But even the final out was a fly ball to the warning track in right field. The Rays had scored only one run, but it was less than a dominating performance.

And so was the third inning. Ponson was victimized by a mistake by Nick Punto and a terrible call by a second base umpire who was late in getting in position for a call at third base. But he escaped the inning because of two warning track fly balls (both of which were hit with two men on base). Maybe worse, he spent most of the inning falling behind hitters in the count.

The fourth inning? He induced some ground balls, but it also became clear that the Devil Rays were taking the first pitch every time, which is never a good sign. Two of the outs were off-speed pitches that were left high in the zone but were popped up and grounded out. His next opponent will be looking for those.

The fifth inning started with two hard-hit line drives, one of which was directly at Jason Bartlett. Then a hard hit ball to Torii Hunter in center field. And then a 3-0 count to Carl Crawford, before fighting back with some pitches that caught enough corner to strike out Crawford looking.

The last two innings were the highlight of the night. He retired all six batters, including the middle of the Devil Rays order. The sixth inning included another warning track fly ball and a line drive to Hunter, but it also included two strikeouts on breaking balls.

So was a corner turned? Maybe, but it didn’t look like it for the first five innings. And Ponson was also aided by the Rays approach, since they clearly didn’t expect him to attack the zone. One gets the sense that maybe Ponson has reached the point in his career where he needs to become a fly ball pitcher doing a Silva-esque dance each inning to escape trouble, which isn’t especially comforting.

But ultimately, it’s the results that really matter. Maybe Ponson turned a corner in those last few innings. Or maybe he has discovered enough tricks to keep runs off the board. Or maybe this will give him enough confidence to improve even more. Today, hope should get its turn. Five days from now against Boston, we’ll see if it gets another.

April Questions, May Answers

The Twins have finally faced each of their division foes for the first time, so one might think there would be some real insight about this team. But the only answer we’re getting is the one we should’ve learned last year – that there are precious few answers in April.

That is especially true in the AL Central, partly because each team is a mixture of veterans and youthful promise. But it’s also because this is a competitive division, and the progress of a couple of key players will likely be the margin of victory or defeat. That’s a good thing, by the way. It’s what a baseball season should be about.

Generally, one doesn’t focus on a series with the Devil Rays because, well, they’re the Devil Rays. But this series should be a little more interesting to Twins fans, because they’re going to highlight some of the key players that could impact the season.

Sidney Ponson
Time is running out on Ponson. On the one hand, he seems to be behaving himself well. On the other, even Pope Benedict isn’t going stay on a major league roster if he’s sporting an 8.44 ERA.

To his credit, Ponson is throwing strikes. Unfortunately those strikes have been extremely hittable, resulting in twice as many base runners as innings pitched. And when six of them have been hit for home runs in just 21 innings, there’s no reason to assume it’s all bad luck (though that likely played a part in at least the outing versus the Yankees).

This week Ponson gets to start against the Devil Rays, and probably again on Sunday against the Red Sox in the Metrodome. If he doesn’t show significant progress, I can’t imagine the Twins will continue to invest in this rehabilitation project. Depending on what Terry Ryan saw this last week when he was in Rochester, it’s possible the Twins wouldn’t even wait that long.

Boof Bonser
Bonser was one of the players that the Twins hoped wouldn’t be on this list in late April, but he’s been the second worst starting pitcher on the staff, and maybe the most frustrating. Bonser is pitching exactly the way he did last year – in the first half of the year, when he was earning himself trips back and forth to Rochester.

Bonser has posted eye-catching strikeout numbers for several years, but stayed in Rochester because he had trouble with his control and keeping the ball down in the zone. In his initial promotion, he showed the same problems, and it wasn’t until late in the season that the mistakes disappeared and all that remained were the wiffs.

Not this year. Bonser leads the team in home runs against (7) and in walks (16). In walks, nobody else is even particularly close, as he doubles everyone except Ponson (9). Boof has smoothed over some of those numbers with lots of Ks, posting a strikeout rate higher than anyone else on the staff, including Johan Santana.

But this organization doesn’t tolerate a lot of walks, and they rarely hesitate to demote a prospect to relearn that fact in Rochester. Bonser faces the Devil Rays, who are about as patient as a coked up commodities broker, on Wednesday. A tougher test might be the White Sox next week. In both, watch to see if he’s getting ahead or falling behind the hitters.

Jason Kubel
Sunday’s paper mentioned what you probably have noticed, which is that Kubel is getting a lot of playing time lately. The paper drew a parallel to Michael Cuddyer last year, but there is an important difference. Cuddyer was playing right field because he was hitting the crap out of the ball. Kubel is playing left field because…um…well…let’s get to that later. Suffice to say it isn’t because he’s forcing the issue with his bat.

So far this season, Kubel is hitting almost exactly the way he did last season. The only big difference is that he’s both walking and striking out less, which means he’s putting a few more balls in play. That’s resulting in a slightly higher batting average and slightly less power.

Which would be fine if last year’s production wasn’t totally unacceptable. Last year’s .241 batting average was bad enough for a left fielder (especially one whose strives to show as much range as Manny Ramirez) but it’s especially brutal for a designated hitter. If the other options weren’t currently Jason Tyner and Josh Rabe, Kubel likely wouldn’t be playing as much as he has.

The lack of other options is one reason that Kubel is playing so much lately, but there are likely two others. First, Kubel could probably use the at-bats, because the Twins need someone to start showing some production in the bottom half of the order. Developing Kubel is the only current option since RonDL White’s recurring injury is making everyone remember that his career has been filled with injuries that never healed.

But another reason might well be that the Twins need to find out if Kubel is ever going to be the answer, because they’ll need to do some shopping this season is he isn’t. The paper and radio shows like to float around the name of Jacque Jones, but the Twins are likely interested in a cheaper, right-handed bat. A player like that can often be plucked away from teams cheaply, ala Phil Nevin last year, and some teams wouldn’t need to wait until the trade deadline to do it.

For instance, if Twins scouts saw ability in someone like Kansas City’s Ryan Shealy, a deal could probably be made prior to the All-Star break. Or, in about a month, when Ken Harvey is recovered from his knee surgery, the Twins might like to know if they’re ready to trust Kubel full-time, or bring Harvey up to platoon at DH. And don’t forget that Matt LeCroy is still plugging along (or is that up?) in Rochester, too.

So Twins fans have a good reason to lean a little closer to their TVs when Kubel is batting over the next couple of weeks. And a couple of good reasons to pay attention to some road games before the Red Sox come to town on Friday. The jury is still out on the seasons that Sidney Ponson, Boof Bonser and Jason Kubel are going to have. The answers will likely reveal themselves in the fairly near future, and they’ll go a lot further in determining the AL Central champ than an April weekend series in Detroit.

Southpaw Stuggles (Part 2)

OK, we GET it. Our boys struggle against left-handed pitchers. They have for years. We don’t need you guys to prove it to use. You can stop sucking now. Because, as we covered yesterday, our Twins, do, in fact, suck against left-handers. Like one of those nasty eel things that are invading Lake Superior. With big pointy teeth.

But as I mentioned yesterday, things should get better. And not just because the Twins shouldn’t be facing this many left-handed pitchers the rest of the year. The Twins should get better because this team has been hit by a perfect storm, and one that should pass blow over soon (though not as soon as we might have hoped).

Listen, any team whose two star hitters hit left-handed (and by “star” I mean Ursa Major kinda large, bringing home hardware and such) would probably struggle against left-handed pitching. But it’s not the guys that you would expect that are struggling against southpaws:

Joe Mauer is leading the team, for chrissakes, and Justin Morneau, while still relatively weak, is less than totally revolting. The biggest culprit right now is (right-handed hitting) Michael Cuddyer who is pasting right-handers (1.039 OPS!) but can’t hit lefties to save his life. He posted an 894 OPS against them last year, by the way.

Another Twins who would seem due for a rebound is Jason Bartlett. Bartlett and his groin are struggling across the board – southpaws, righties, fielding, probably sexually – but a right-handed hitter is going to finish better than that.

But most infuriating for Twins management is that they planned for this, but a string of injuries has absolutely decimated their ability to respond. You’ll notice Mike Redmond on that list, and while the number under “OPS” is bad, the number under “AB” is worse. Like Dante in Clerks, Mike wasn’t even supposed to BE here today. He’s only playing because the two guys who were supposed to hold down the job – Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo – are both injured.

And it’s not like just one of them could help. Because there is another name that you would expect to see at that bottom of this list, and he hasn’t disappointed. That’s Nick Punto, who has never hit left-handed pitchers. Cirillo was specifically signed this offseason because he can play third base and past left-handers, and that’s awfully handy when Punto is on a roster.

Even more frustrating is that the Twins also worked hard in the offseason to provide additional insurance for those guys – and that’s not working out either. Before either White or Cirillo one was signed, Ken Harvey was signed. He’s a former all-star (which unfortunately says loads about that particular title), who nonetheless can be a fairly suitable DH in a pinch, especially against left-handers. He’s out until mid-May with knee surgery.

And you might also remember a certain lovable chicken-fried-steak poster boy who was in spring training. Matt LeCroy didn’t do much in his major league career, like, for instance, catch things that weren’t chocolate-covered. But he always hit left-handed pitching, and he hit it awfully hard. He’s got to be kicking himself right now, because this is maybe the worst possible time to be hitting .186 in Rochester.

So let’s count up the carnage, shall we? Two solid right-handed hitters who suddenly are slumping, plus two right-handed hitters who are injured, plus two right-handed replacements in Rochester who are unavailable. That’s some solid work just as the team is facing a left-handed pitcher pretty much every other night.

The good news is that the first impression will likely stay with us long past the actual reality. The Twins aren’t going to thrive against left-handers, but they also aren’t going to be this bad for most of the rest of the year.

Southpaw Struggles (Part 1)

As the saying goes, just because you’re paranoid, it doesn’t mean someone isn’t out to get you.

And just because something is an overused cliché, that doesn’t mean it isn’t true. Such is the case with the Twins hitting left-handed pitchers. It’s been talked about so much that it isn’t talked about anymore – exactly when it should be talked about. I’ll credit Patrick Reusse for pointing it out again, and whether he did it because it’s a cliché or because he really could back it up, it is certainly true.

It’s the reason we’re having such trouble gauging this offense. If you think that the Twins offense has the potential to be top five in the league, you’re right – against right-handed pitching.

American League vs RH Pitching














If you think they’re dreadfully inconsistent, heading towards putrid, you’re right too – against left-handed pitching.

American League vs LH Pitching














That’s one heck of a drop-off, the biggest in the majors. And whether it’s by happenstance, or some devious strategy, the Twins have faced a lot of left-handed pitching. In fact, they lead the majors and it’s not particularly close:

American League At-bats














To some extent, that’s by design. There’s no doubt that other teams like to use left-handed pitching against the Twins. For instance, last year the Twins ranked second in the league in at-bats against left-handers, behind only the White Sox (who, incidentally are the only team worse than the Twins.) That's the bad news.

But the good news is that the Twins are going to face fewer left-handers. It HAS to happen. Last year, even with as many at-bats as they had against left-handers, they still had twice as many at-bats against right-handed pitchers. This year, they’re close to even, which smells like a quirk of early season scheduling.

And that’s the just the start of the good news. We’ll have more tomorrow, when we start examining who the culprits are of this early season southpaw funk.

You have GOT to be kidding!

Why Santana will be worth $200 million

Johan Santana’s a free agent after next year, and there isn’t a Twins fans who doesn’t want to see his contract extended into the next decade. The popular refrain is that the Twins ‘just need to get it done’.

But what is “it” exactly? And just how much will “it” cost?

In April of 2003, the Red Sox picked up an option year in the contract of Pedro Martinez. Doing so allowed them to keep him through the 2004 season, the same season that the Red Sox won the World Series. It also meant that they opted, of their own free will, to pay Martinez $17.5 million, which was the most ever to a pitcher in major league baseball.

But in the last year, three major league pitchers have signed for more than Pedro’s high water mark. They reflect a reality where major league clubs’ revenues are exploding and where risks can be accepted that previously were unthinkable. For Twins fans who are hoping for an announced extension between the Twins and Johan Santana, each reflects a changing reality that will make retaining Santana more and more expensive.

Barry Zito – Seven years/$126 million

Zito is a poor man’s Johan. He’s left-handed, young, and a Cy Young award winner. But he won that award in 2002, and he hasn’t received a single vote for one since. He also hasn’t posted an ERA south of 3.70 over the last three years. That didn’t stop the Giants from committing to him, on average, $18 million per year over the next seven years.

For Twins fans, those last two words should hurt the most. Zito’s contract shocked baseball because pitchers are notoriously prone to injury, and thus usually sign shorter contracts than their offensive colleagues. Zito has stayed healthy and was only 28 years old when he became a free agent. In fact, Cot’s Baseball Contracts reports that the contract includes an eighth year that automatically vests if Zito pitches 200 innings in the seventh year.

Johan has stayed just as healthy, will be just 29 years old when he’s a free agent, and has been infinitely more effective than Zito over the last three years (and counting). He’s likely to receive at least eight guaranteed years if he tests the free agent waters. If the Twins want to talk about an extension, any offer less than five years would seem naive.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – 6 years/$52 million (or $103 million)

If you look up Matsuzaka’s salary in GameDay (salaries are on the statistical insert) when the Red Sox come to town, you’ll likely think the Red Sox received a bargain when they added him to their rotation for just $6 million. But the actual price that Red Sox paid for the 26-year-old was far higher, and the risk they took may have been greater than the Giants took for Zito.

When a player comes over from Japan, before any team can negotiate with him, the Japanese ballclub must be paid. So major league ballclubs each bid for the right to negotiate with the player, and only the team with the high bid is allowed to negotiate. That obviously means the winning ballclub has a fair amount of leverage with the Japanese player, but it also means they’re on the hook for much more than the salary they’ll pay.

When “Dice K” came across the pond, the Red Sox paid over $51 million to the Seibu Lions for the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka for 30 days. Or rather to negotiate with Scott Boras, Matsuzaka’s agent, who was also responsible for Alex Rodriguez’s monster deal and Zito’s contract. He not only negotiated another $52 million guaranteed for his client, there are at least $8 million in incentives attached to it.

Add all that together, and Dice K’s services could be worth $112 million, meaning the Red Sox would be paying more per year than the Giants. And they had to pay half of it before they even had a deal in place. All for a guy who not only hadn’t won any Cy Young awards – he hadn’t pitched a single inning in the major leagues.

Roger Clemens - 1 year/$22 million

So far we’ve been talking about players who are young and perceived as great pitchers, but aren’t in Santana’s class. Clemens is the opposite – seemingly old as Methusalah, but has recently been as dominant as Santana. Clemens, like Santana, won a Cy Young Award in 2004 and finished third in 2005.

Unlike the others, the length of contract isn’t important, but it’s telling just how much clubs are willing to pay on an annual basis. Clemens signed a 1-year, $22 million contract with the Astros last year, but only made a little over $12 million because he didn’t start pitching until June 22nd. By the time you read this, it’s likely he will have announced whether he’s pitching in 2007 and the bidding could be fast and furious for him once again. If so, his 2007 salary could provide some real clues to what Santana could receive in an annual salary, since it’s expected that the New York Yankees would be included in the bidding, which really wasn’t the case for either of the two pitchers above.

Johan Santana - ? years/$?? Million

So now you know what the agents and general managers know about the pitching market. Before Santana becomes a free agent at the end of next year, there will likely be some new names that can be included (such as Mark Buehrle, the left-handed White Sox starter who threw a no-hitter earlier this year), but you already have enough data to make a reasonable guess.

For instance, would anyone be surprised if Santana received an eight-year guaranteed contract starting at $18 million per year, with a $1 million raise per year? Add in a ninth year that can be automatically vested and a couple of incentive bonuses, and suddenly a $200 million contract is within reason. That’s not only twice as long as the Twins like to guarantee contracts, it’s also equal to about three times their current payroll. In fact, it’s darn close to the amount that Forbes recently estimated the entire Twins franchise is worth ($216 million).

Which isn’t to say that the Twins can’t sign Santana to an extension. Or that it won’t be worth the commitment, as Pedro’s contract in 2004 might attest. But it’s one thing to say “they need to get it done”. It’s another matter entirely to say it when you find out exactly what “it” is going to cost.

The preceding article will be available in the May issue of GameDay, the independent baseball program sold across the street from the Metrodome. Look for the guys in the red vests.

Raging Against the Serene

Q: What kind of dumb-ass baseball writer stays up until midnight on a weeknight, writing notes about a West Coast game, and still manages to miss the most talked about story?

A: A Twins Geekish one, apparently. Because yesterday, after a 11-2 thrashing of the Mariners, the most talked about story wasn’t my favorite, which would have been how the Twins signed Ramon Ortiz at half the salary level of Jeff Weaver. (No, I didn’t think that would be anyone else’s story. I’m a geek. We’ve established that.) It wasn’t Luis Rodriguez showing Twins Territory some glove. It wasn’t even Torii Hunter, despite a grand slam and a shoulder/wrist injury.

No, the biggest talker yesterday (as judged by random chats I received) was Joe Mauer’s bunt in the fifth inning. If you missed it, there were runners on first and second base and no outs in a game that the Twins led 3-1. Weaver had started the inning giving up three straight singles to Piranhas, and given up a run. Mauer laid a bunt down the third base line which died in the Safeco rough, Seattle catcher Kenji Johjima raced up the line, and his throw just beat Mauer racing to first base.

Later that inning Hunter hit a grand slam that essentially decided the game, so nobody was arguing with the result as much as the decision. The debate raged in part because Mauer did something similar last week, bunting when it seemed like the Twins really needed him to swing away.

Judging from the feedback I received, the anti-bunt side has introduced some rather strange bedfellows. On the one hand, there are those who are pretty damn convinced that bunting is usually stupid, and that the Twins do too much of it. They’ve found themselves aligned with another crowd who just wants Mauer to start hitting for some power, or at least drive in some more runs, dammit.

Last week we talked about how a person’s philosophy frames their reality and this bunt seems to be another example. Those fans whose pet peeve is watching the Twins bunt themselves silly are livid because they think this is another example. And those that feel that Mauer’s popularity needs to be justified by some offensive fireworks are equally perturbed. But objectively, this was a completely justifiable decision, whether or not Hunter hit that home run.

Mauer’s bunt wasn’t necessarily meant to be a sacrifice. There is a reason that that Johjima had to play that ball, and it was because the third baseman was playing back. If the ball would have rolled a foot farther, Mauer would have been safe, meaning the bases would have been loaded with no outs. The actual outcome also really wasn’t so bad – runners on second and third base with one out and a very good chance to add to the lead with Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau up next.

I’m especially surprised that anyone who claims they’re baseball philosophy is steeped in sabermetrics should argue about this. I’m pretty sure we can do a quick study that shows that sabermetric theory practically DEMANDS a bunt in that position. Let’s find out.

One tool that is really handy for talking about in game strategies is something called Thorn and Palmer’s Expected Runs Matrix. It is just a cute little grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. It looks like this.

OUTS	None	1st	2nd	3rd	1st & 2nd	1st & 3rd	2nd & 3rd	Full
0 Outs	0.454	0.783	1.068	1.277	1.38	1.639	1.946	2.254
1 Out	0.249	0.478	0.699	0.897	0.888	1.088	1.371	1.546
2 Outs	0.095	0.209	0.348	0.382	0.457	0.494	0.661	0.798

- When Mauer came up to bat, the Twins could have expected to score 1.380 runs.
- Even though he failed to get a base hit, the Twins could have been expected to score 1.371 runs because he at least advanced the baserunners. And that was the (essentially) the worst case scenario.
- With the third baseman playing back, Mauer was trying to bunt his way onto first base, which would have put the Twins in a position to average 2.254 runs, which adds almost a full run to what they could have expected.

Now there’s plenty of details that one can quibble about here. For starters, I only highlighted the two most likely scenarios, and some worse stuff could happen, like Mauer popping up to the catcher. Of course, that works both ways, and Mauer often hits the ball hard enough to ground into double plays.

One might also argue that if you’re going to have roughly 1.3 runs sitting out there for your team to pick up, you would rather have Mauer batting against Weaver than Cuddyer, and I agree with that. That’s a good argument to not have Mauer sacrifice if the third baseman is anticipating the bunt, but not when he’s playing back and opening up a real opportunity for a bunt base hit.

Finally, one additional point that further supports his bunt is that up two runs with Ortiz on the mound and a helluva bullpen, the probability of scoring one or two runs was more important than trying maximize the total number of runs scored in the inning. Even a straight sacrifice is justifiable in that scenario.

We can be pretty sure that while he was in the on-deck circle, Mauer wasn’t sneaking time with an abacus to figure this all out. And that decision might have been made for the wrong reasons, so maybe it will bite back in a future game.

But Mauer’s job at that point wasn’t to drive Weaver from the game, and it wasn’t to justify the state’s man-crush by flexing his muscles. His job was to help his team score some runs, and almost any way you look at it, he accomplished that. We should probably save our rage for an event that deserves it.

Twins Much, Mariners Much Less

Got to watch a good chunk of tonight's game at a great little neighborhood restaurant*, talking with Dave about a Great Big Fun Idea™. Other little thoughts couldn't help but pop out too, so let's see what they were....

A Little Gush for Luis
Third Base has a bit of a bugaboo for this organization lately. Take away both Corey Koskie debacles, the Tubby Batista signing, and you still have a bunch of draft picks that aren't quite where the Twins want them to be. I wondered about that, and I managed to find this post from February where Taylor talks a bit about who the Twins might have in their future at the position. (BTW, is Taylor's blog on our list? Is his RSS feed on MNGameDay.com? Needs to be.) But isn't there a guy they just drafted that should be on that list? Am I confused?

Anyhoo, Taylor lists Luis Rodriguez as #11 or #432 or something like that, which is fine. I've always thought Rodriguez a little underrated, but results are results, and I'm fine with his place. But you absolutely have to LOVE the play he made on Ichiro's second at-bat of the game. A diving grab, a throw from both cheeks that beats the fastest home-to-first runner in the game. If Punto made that play, we'd all be gushing. Luis, you get a little gushing tonight.

Weaver's Dream
Jeff Weaver started the game for the Mariners, and he deserves a whole article. Remember, this guy was the Tigers Opening Day starter as a 24-year-old back in 2001 (losing to Brad Radke 3-2). He was traded to the Yankees for Jeremy Bonderman and a bunch of guys. Then he was traded from the Yankees for Kevin Brown.

Last year he was released mid-season when the Angels called up his own brother, signed with the Cardinals, but went on a tear in the playoffs to earn a World Series ring. However, he couldn't come to an agreement with the Cards in the offseason and signed with the Mariners for $8+ million.

Remember, Weaver had been released just six months earlier but received an $8M contract. What's more, he signed that one-year deal five days later than Ramon Oritz signed with the Twins for about $5 million less money. Comparable pitchers, signed in the market at a similar time, one of which clearly has better stuff than the other based on tonight's game - and Weaver got more than twice as much money.

Boras Effect
And I think I know the answer to that obvious little riddle - it's Scott Boras. Weaver's agent is Boras, and I'll be damned if his client's don't make WAY more than comparable players. It seems to happen every damn time, even to the Twins. Remember when Twins fans were up in arms about the arbitration ruling that Kyle Lohse won? Wanna guess who his agent was?

It made me wonder who which agents represented the most grossly overpaid players this year. I knew that the agent for that 7-year, $126 million contract that Barry Zito got was Scott Boras. But how about the ridiculous deal that Gil Meche got? Turns out his agent is Casey Close, who I had never heard of before.

But that's also not good news for Twins fans. Because while none of the Twins big names have Boras as their agent, one has Close. That player is Michael Cuddyer. Just something to keep in mind.

But the best agent in the world wasn't saving Weaver tonight. Can anyone yank balls to left field like Hunter when he's on fire? Just an amazint at-bat.

• Weaver works the outside edge of the plate and the umpire give him a huge strike zone out there for the first two pitches.
• On the third pitch, Kenji Johjima is setting up six inches off the plate and even then Hunter needs to swing and just manages to foul one off.
• For the fourth pitch Johjima gets up, walks 1/4 of the way down the first base line, and then gets into his crouch again. Amazingly, Hunter doesn't swing. Even more amazingly, it's called a ball.
• And for the fifth pitch Johjima set up off the outside of the plate and low. And Dave says "Weaver had better not miss his spot". He does. The pitch is six inches higher and about three inches over. It's still on the outside of the plate, but it's over the plate and there was never a doubt where it would land.

That's it for tonight. I hope you all had as much fun watching the game as I did. And if you're not watching tonight's game, I'm not sure I can call you my friend. Bring on the King!

* Amore Victoria on Lake and Irving. If I lived within four blocks of that place, I would be there approximately four nights a week. If I lived six blocks, I would be there at least that often in the summer. I'm just saying.

Oh, and I would be eating that pistachio gorgonzola cream pasta thing right up until the time I had that first coronary. Hmmm, make that the second coronary.

Phoning It In: Five Years Ago

Sorry gang. I took advantage of yesterday's wonderful weather to have a date with The Voice of Reason. Pracna on Main, the Stone Arch Bridge, the New Guthrie - it was a helluva night to be out. Welcome back Spring.

So, anyhoo, I'm phoning it in, and I thoght I would just print whatever I did from five years ago, just for a little perspective. There isn't a ton there, but I do note that Joe Mays elbow started hurting. I think this was the first in his series of injuries...

The Tribe's Hot Start

04/17/2002

ESPN's lead article on the MLB page yesterday was about Cleveland's 11-1 start, and how they were overlooked by a lot of analysts. I mentioned a few weeks ago that if Cleveland's young pitching developed, the Central division would be a three horse race. But Cleveland's hot start hasn't convinced me that they'll be a contender come the all-star break, let alone on Labor Day. To be fair to them, I didn't get to watch much of the series where they swept the Twins, but the concerns I have about that team haven't faded:

1) Their Starting Pitching other than Colon and Sabathia
This is probably the biggest concern. Their starting rotation consists of the best 1-2 combination in the AL Central, followed by a ton of question marks. Ryan Drese has an 8.40 ERA. Baez has a shiny 3.38 ERA, but has walked twice as many batters (10) as he's struck out (5). The big question is whether 39-year-old Chuck Finley can stay healthy enough to post numbers like he did in 2000 (218 IP, 4.14 ERA) or whether he'll have a year like last year (113.2 IP, 5.58 ERA). And even if he does stay healthy, they need one of the two youngsters to pitch consistently well.

2) Age
I thought we might hear during spring training that Travis Fryman had retired. Honestly. And Ellis Burks, who is sporting a 1203 OPS* right now, will almost undoubtedly need some extra time off this year. And unfortunately for North Coast fans, the replacement for both of them is Brady Anderson, followed by Will Cordero. This is still a pretty old team, and while that might mean something in terms of experience, it can also mean something in terms of productivity and health.

3) Their Schedule
This is dangerous ground, since the Twins have had a similarly easy schedule, but the White Sox have been at ANA, at DET, vs. MIN and vs. KC. The only really impressive series in those four was against the Twins, who have a history of struggling in Cleveland, were at the end of a very long road trip and looking forward to their home opener. This week the Tribe faces the White Sox and the Twins on the road and we may get a better feel for their true level of play.

4) Some Guys Are Hitting Over Their Heads
This is also dangerous, since some of their guys are hitting below where they should as well. But consider:

Certainly, Gutierrez should start doing a little better, and it's conceivable that Milton Bradley, at just 24 years old, will breakout this year to post a 850+ OPS. But there are some guys in that lineup who are off to amazing starts and neither recent history, career numbers, or age dependent projections anticipate that they'll keep it up. Sometimes a guy pulls a Bret Boone and keeps it up for the entire year, but I have trouble seeing that happening to anyone with the possible exception of Lawton.

So, I'm not writing them off, and it should help make it a more exciting race, but the hot start hasn't really answered any of my questions about this team. Of course, it's not like your average Cleveland Indians fan would start checking the mail for their playoff tickets anyway. I mean, after all, these are the Indians and they seem to exist strictly to break their fans' hearts. But if you're an Indians fan, for now, dream a little dream. After all, there was a team last year who rode two very good starters and an over-the-hill lineup to a championship....

Twins Takes
Joe Mays is hurt. It's "just" a sore elbow, so they're not planning on placing him on the DL and he'll only miss one start. They'll juggle the rotation a bit and give Tony Fiore, who was excellent in relief last night, a start. According to Gardenhire, he'll have 13 days between starts, so I have to wonder why they wouldn't place him on the 15 day DL, but maybe they'll do that only if they run into a roster crunch or need to replace Fiore with another reliever. Both situations are somewhat likely, with Buchanan possibly coming back soon and the starters continuing to melt down.

There was a lot of talk in spring training about the wealth of young pitching the Twins had, so you would think maybe Kinney or Santana might be called up if Mays needs to be out for an extended period, but none of the AAA prospects have done terribly well their first week.

That's after only 1 or 2 starts, so we certainly shouldn't read that much into those numbers. But we'll keep an eye on how our AAA starters are doing, partly because one of them could be needed to replace Mays, partly because I would love to see one of them replace Reed, and partly because the more chips Terrry Ryan gets to have at the trade deadline, the better the Twins chances of landing an impact player for the pennant race.

Stuck by Devil Rays

"This is the zero moment of consciousness. Stuck. No answer. Honked. Kaput. It's a miserable experience emotionally. You're losing time. You're incompetent. You don't know what you're doing. You should be ashamed of yourself."
...
"Stuckness shouldn't be avoided. It's the psychic predecessor of all real understanding."

- Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert M. Pirsig

When it comes to hitting Joe Nathan, most of Major League Baseball has been stuck. No answer. Honked. Kaput. It's a miserable experience emotionally. They're losing time. They're incompetent. They don't know what they are doing. They should be ashamed of themselves.

And then, like a Zen parable, it's the figurative (and literal) children of MLB - the Tampa Bay Devil Rays - that embrace their stuckness and find an answer.

The change in Pirsig's attitude reflected above is his way of embracing "stuckness", the feeling of helplessness when a problem can't be solved. In the book, his example is a screw that is stripped and won't allow the mechanic to take the cover off the broken motorcycle to fix it.

After fruitless efforts to unscrew it, the stuckness opens his mind. He recognizes the stripped screw isn't just a 5-cent piece of metal, but a malfunctioning adhesive that is currently worth the entire price of the motorcycle, since it is stopping him from fixing it. That realization leads him to all kinds of solutions, such as drilling the screw out, or using a solvent. The solution becomes unimportant, almost trivial, once the realization is reached.

Against Nathan the challenge is how to handle a closer that throws a 95-mph fastball. He compliments that with a slider that looks like the fastball, except it dives a foot below where the fastball should be. And if that wasn't unfair emough, he can throw two off-speed pitches for strikes too? That's the kind of repetoire that makes a stripped screw look desirable.

The solution? It's the kind that can only develop after fruitless efforts to overcome the challenge, stuckness is achieved, and minds are opened. By embracing the fact that there already is almost no chance to reach base, previously inconceivable chances can be taken, even if they seem suicidal.

Q: What's the only thing worse than facing a 95 mph fastball/slider combo?
A: Facing a 95 mph fastball/slider combo and looking for something off-speed. Check that - facing a 95 mph fastball/slider combo and looking for something off-speed while you're behind in the count.

That's counter-intuitive to most batters, because it's awfully hard to catch up to a fastball when looking for something slower. The only reason to do so is when you've essentially given up hope. You do it because, darn it, you're not hitting the fastball anyway. You might as well look for a pitch you can handle.

And Sunday afternoon it worked, because when Nathan and Mike Redmond got ahead of batters, they started throwing off-speed pitches to keep the batters off-balance. Except that two Devil Rays, Akinora Iwamura and Dionner Navarro, realized they were hopelessly off-balance before their at-bat started, and were waiting for a breaking ball. They each got it when they had two strikes, and they each lined it into right field for a double.

And suddenly they were unstuck.

The good news for Twins fans is that it didn't take long for Nathan to adjust. He threw eleven pitches after that, and every one was a fastball or a slider. The next group that faces Nathan in the ninth will likely need to come up with their own solution.

But first, they'll likely need to recognize they're stuck.