...a player just isn’t who you want him to be. Case in point: Kevin Slowey.
The highest praise you heap on Kevin Slowey is that his career ERA is 4.43.
Again, that’s the best thing. And that’s not a particularly good thing. That career ERA is higher than that of any other Twins starting pitcher, including the two guys most commonly mentioned as pitchers he could replace, Nick Blackburn (4.37) and Brian Duensing (3.37). It’s even a skosh worse than Carlos Silva (4.42) had with the Twins, for chrissakes.
But it is better than some others. For instance, it’s better than Rick Reed (4.47). It’s better than Kyle Lohse (4.88). It’s better than RA Dickey (4.62) and Boof Bonser (5.10). It’s even a little better (so far) than Glen Perkins (4.58).
If you think Slowey is a better pitcher than that - if you think he’s not in that class, maybe he isn’t the player you want him to be.
There aren’t a lot of other stats that can dress him up any better than ERA. He gives up a LOT of hits. The average major league pitcher gives up about one per inning. Slowey has pitched 488 innings and given up 547 hits. To his credit, he makes up for it a little bit by not walking too many guys.
He’s a fly ball pitcher and has given up a LOT of home runs. The average pitcher gives up about one per nine innings. In those 488 innings, an average pitcher would have given up about 54. Slowey has given up 76.
And, by far the biggest problem is that he has had maddeningly short outings. It takes him a lot of pitches to retire batters. His best year ever, he pitched 160 innings. Last year, mostly due to leaving games early, he had a total of eight quality starts (in 28 games started). By comparison, in his 13 starts, Duensing had nine quality starts.
You know what you call a guy with that resume? A fringe starter. A swing man. If you think he’s more than that, maybe he just isn’t who you want him to be.
Those are exactly the tags the Twins tried out this year, and it hasn’t gone well. But make no mistake: the person most responsible for this debacle is Slowey – and it’s not a close call. To criticize the Twins for accurately evaluating Slowey’s track record and plugging him into a role that reflects that track record is ludicrous.
I understand that Slowey probably isn’t too fond of those plans. I suspect he thinks they are unfair, or don’t utilize him to his full potential. The bottom line: he thinks he’s better than that. But Kevin, you’re now in year four of your major league career and the track record is pretty clear. You might want to step back and evaluate.
Have you been the player you want yourself to be?
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37 comments:
Good post. Those maddeningly short outings made me want to pull my hair out last year.
you truly have no idea what you're talking about. he has in no way ever muttered a single word about feeling entitled to starting (just the opposite, in fact)..he was never a self proclaimed ace he was just being honest in attempt to not hurt the team. and give me a break...and him a little credit... he has a 39-21 career record..and are you trying to discredit all fly ball pitchers? some of the best pitchers in history have given up massive numbers of home runs. it's just interesting how you only focus on and dwell on the negative aspects of his career (and his control is what makes him the pitcher he is...a lot of people see few walks as a very valuable trait)
I think the reason people expect more of Slowey is that in his second year he had an ERA under 4.00, averaged almost six innings per start and threw 3 complete games, two of them shut outs. He hasn't been able to repeat that, but that may be because he hasn't stayed healthy through a full season.
Right now Slowey is in the wrong place at the wrong time. He's 27 years old and stuck in a middle relief role because of the Twins pitching depth. Its one thing to sacrifice your career for a chance to get a world series ring, its quite another to risk it for the opportunity to eat innings for the team with the worst record in baseball.
This is a classic case where the interests of the team and the player have diverged. That doesn't mean the Twins will jettison Slowey, but it does mean that the relationship is going to be uncomfortable unless/until an opportunity to start opens up.
Lets hope they don't burn their bridges before then. Because Slowey is still by far the best option if one of the starters goes down.
Anonymous #2:
Limiting walks is only valuable as it related to limiting baserunners. If a pitcher gives up hits to the batters that another pitcher would walk, that's WORSE. Walks only advance runners that are forced ahead by them, and only 1 base at a time. Hits advance baserunners > 1 base on average.
...Just looked it up, and it's interesting is that Slowey's career WHIP is 2nd when compared to the Twins 5 starters:
Scott Baker 1.281
Kevin Slowey 1.285
Francisco Liriano 1.302
Brian Duensing 1.306
Carl Pavano 1.338
Nick Blackburn 1.389
Still, innings count A LOT towards a starting pitcher's value. Slowey's short starts basically necessitate he be put in the bullpen. You can't afford to blow out your relievers every 5th day.
Sometimes a pitcher isn't what you want him to be. As in, sometimes he isn't a reliever. If want to evaluate Slowey and his potential, how about looking at K-rate. His 6.8 K/9 career is better than all but Baker for the Twins starters (this year, Liriano has better career rate). His 1.5 BB/9 is better than any Twins starter. His K/BB ratio is routinely one of the best in baseball for starters. The Twins are nothing but average or slightly less starters. Slowey has a career 95 ERA+, Blackburn 96 and Baker 99. Slowey's career ERA+ would be second on the team for this year behind Blackburn.
SoCal -
Why does k/9 matter? The proportion of outs by strikeout seems like a meaningless measure. I don't see that it makes a huge difference how a pitcher gets hitters out. Its how often they get them out.
The siting of career stats just reinforces my point that people are relying on Slowey's one good year tow years ago as the basis of their evaluation of him. The issue is how good he is now, not how well he pitched two years ago. Career stats rarely have much meaning for evaluating a player's current worth.
"If a pitcher gives up hits to the batters that another pitcher would walk, that's WORSE."
This is only true with knowledge of the result of the ball in play. In general a walk has a lower associated value than a ball in play because a walk results in a baserunner 100% of the time while a ball in play is turned into an out most of the time. If youre given the choice between a ball in play and a walk you should take the ball in play except under very specific circumstances. Sloweys control is a valuable asset.
"Why does k/9 matter? The proportion of outs by strikeout seems like a meaningless measure."
Strikeouts are the best way to record outs for a lot of the same reason walks are bad. Strikeouts turn into out almost all the time while balls in play turn into outs only some of the time. The more people a pitcher strikes out, the fewer balls he allows to be put in play, which allows fewer balls the opportunity to fall in for hits, which typically leads to few baserunners, which typically leads to fewer runs allowed.
"Career stats rarely have much meaning for evaluating a player's current worth."
This is absolutely untrue. Relevant track record is the best tool for future projection. When looking at a track record more emphasis should be put on more recent data, but to say that track record rarely has meaning with regards to a players current value is a stupid thing to say.
This analysis is trash. A gross combination of second hand speculation and brutal somewhat unfair statistical analysis. Why didn't you look at FIP, xFIP, siera, k/9, BB/9, etc and compare those numbers to other twins starters and starters in general? Probably because they don't support you presumed opinion as well.
"The highest praise you heap on Kevin Slowey is that his career ERA is 4.43.
Again, that’s the best thing. And that’s not a particularly good thing. "
I don't think you were looking very hard. You had an opinion and you found some statistics that supported it instead of looking at the statistics and forming an opinion based on what you find.
So whats next in the docket Twins Puppet? Perhaps a twincentric piece on how michael cuddyer playing second base worse than every other 2b in baseball really helps the twins because hes willing to do it? Or maybe something on how drew butera's game calling more than makes up for his historically bad offense?
To me there is no question that the Twins have the right to ask Slowey to play where they wanted. The could ask him to play infield if they think that is the way to go. The thing that bother me, and I think to a lot of people, is the character assassination that they started through the friendly media, using Dick, Bert, and the Star Tribune columnist to portray Slowey as a rotten apple, and scapegoating him as a cause of the bullpen troubles. The bullpen was in trouble because they chose the wrong guys and the wrong solutions to replace the guys that left, and that were all Front Office decisions, not Kevin Slowey's
"Strikeouts turn into out almost all the time while balls in play turn into outs only some of the time. The more people a pitcher strikes out, the fewer balls he allows to be put in play, which allows fewer balls the opportunity to fall in for hits, which typically leads to few baserunners, which typically leads to fewer runs allowed."
Every out on a ball in play is just as much an out as a strikeout. They never result in a hit.
The question is why if someone gives up 3 hits and gets seven outs, it matters whether those outs are on balls in play or strikeouts.
Or put another way, why is a pitcher who gets 4 strikeouts, 2 outs on balls in play and gives up 4 hits better than a pitcher who gets 4 strikeouts, 4 outs on balls in play and 2 hits.
The answer in both cases is obviously the pitcher is not any better. Not all "balls in play" are created equal and the average results vary a lot from pitcher to pitcher.
"Why didn't you look at FIP, xFIP, siera, k/9, BB/9, etc and compare those numbers to other twins starters and starters in general? Probably because they don't support you presumed opinion as well."
There is a reason those stats tend to support each other. The primary inputs for FIP and xFIP are K/9 and BB/9. But the reasons I didn't use them is simple:
1) I was tired, and wanted to go to bed.
2) K/9 and BB/9 are the means to an end, not an end. And xFIP and FIP are measurements of potential, not of results.
Do I think Slowey has potential, the raw skill, to be a top of the rotation guy, back like he was his first full year int the majors? Sure.But the results haven't been there. He's been a botom of the rotation guy, and it' perfectly legitimate for a bottom-of-the-rotation guy to lose his spot in an overcrowded rotation.
He's fooling himself if he thinks he's been anything better than that in the last 2+ years. And apparently fooling some of my readers, too.
Oh, one other thing on the "character assasination" point. I had heard long before this questions about slowey's attitude towards the team, organization, etc. It may be that the Twins are more guilty of covering that stuff up rather before this than they are of adding to it now.
Or put another way, why is a pitcher who gets 4 strikeouts, 2 outs on balls in play and gives up 4 hits better than a pitcher who gets 4 strikeouts, 4 outs on balls in play and 2 hits.
If I pitch a perfect game and strike out 27 on just 81 pitches, and you pitch a perfect game while needing 130 pitches and 27 home run robbing catches, I suppose you could argue that b/c we both recorded 27 outs, our our performances were equal. But who is more likely to outperform the other in the future? And why shouldn't that future performance potential matter when we assess a pitchers relative value?
"But who is more likely to outperform the other in the future?"
There is very little reason to think a guy with a high k/9 who can't get batters out on balls in play is going to be successful. There certainly aren't any in the HOF.
"If I pitch a perfect game and strike out 27 on just 81 pitches, and you pitch a perfect game while needing 130 pitches and 27 home run robbing catches, I suppose you could argue that b/c we both recorded 27 outs, our our performances were equal. "
BTW - your scenario is entirely imaginary. Pitchers don't strike out 27 hitters on 81 pitchers. The best pitchers with a K/9 around 9 still are getting about a third of their outs on balls in play.
"Relevant track record is the best tool for future projection"
Career stats are a lousy measure of of the relevant track record. Most young players get better, most old players get worse. At any point along that career route their entire career is a poor predictor of the immediate future. How an aging player did three or four years earlier is rarely relevant. And how a young player did when he first broke into the big leagues isn't very relevant either.
"And xFIP and FIP are measurements of potential, not of results. "
And you believe ERA is a good measure of pitcher controllable "results"? You can't believe that all runs are created equally. Defense, ball park, bullpen, official score keeping, opponent strategy all combine to have a sizeable effect on run scoring that the pitcher doesnt control. ERA is junk. If we arent going to try at all to isolate pitcher skill in pitcher analysis why not just go with W-L record? Winning games is the goal right.
Regarding the character assassination: " I had heard long before this questions about slowey's attitude towards the team, organization, etc. " This is exactly what I am talking about.Innuendo, comments behind the scenes, gossips, are very destructive to an organization. If you have to say something say it out loud with the exact facts. If not, shut up. But saying something to a journalist behind the scenes so he goes out and repeat it in a column, or in a comment, that is really bad for everyone.
Fair point. I regret how I put that. Let me rephrase:
The Twins have a basic interest in making their players look as good as possible. We know they go to great lengths to protect them and put them in the best light.
In the case when they express their frustration with a player, it doesn't necessarily mean they are throwing him under the bus. It could mean that they are simply unwilling or unable to protect him any longer from his own behavior and attitude.
"And you believe ERA is a good measure of pitcher controllable "results"? You can't believe that all runs are created equally. Defense, ball park, bullpen, official score keeping, opponent strategy all combine to have a sizeable effect on run scoring that the pitcher doesnt control. ERA is junk. If we arent going to try at all to isolate pitcher skill in pitcher analysis why not just go with W-L record? Winning games is the goal right."
The same could be said of batters, I supposed. I'm open to a better metric for results. But please don't imply that a pitchers' job is only to strike people out and not walk people, which is what you would be saying if you want to rely on FIP (and not give up fly balls if you want to rely on xFIP).
But if you want to float a metric for evaluating pitchers, I'm open.
" you believe ERA is a good measure of pitcher controllable "results"? You can't believe that all runs are created equally."
Neither is any other result in baseball. ERA, like every measure, has its weaknesses. But its pretty obvious the pitcher's performance is always a significant factor in the number of runs a team gives up.
FIP and xFIP appear to be statistics that claim the number of outs a team gets are "Fielding Independent". That is a bit hard to believe ...
"But if you want to float a metric for evaluating pitchers, I'm open."
I use at k/9, bb/9 and gb% as the basis for any pitcher analysis. Things like weak contact generated are important but fickle and very hard to quantify. I use at BABIP, strand rate, double play rate, and hr/fb as fortune barometers.
I dont give pitchers much credit for being able to control where the ball goes when it's put in play, just how its put in play (GB, FB, LD). I was 100 time more impressed with lirianos outing against the mariners where he struck out 9 and walked 2 and gave up 2 ER than I was with his terrible no hitter where he happened to get a lot of ball hit at his fielders.
K/9 and BB/9 both factor in how many balls are hit at fielders whether you know it or not.
"where he happened to get a lot of ball hit at his fielders."
Every ball a fielder turns into an out lowers the pitcher's K/9 and BB/9.
As is the case here, an awful lot of people using statistics don't understand what the numbers mean and, as a result, give them meanings they don't have.
"Every ball a fielder turns into an out lowers the pitcher's K/9 and BB/9. "
This is obviously true, Im not sure what your point is. If your point is that you would like to more precisely describe the ability to miss bats with statistics like swing and miss rates, and chase rates that's valid. Thats going to paint a better picture of a pitchers ability to avoid balls in play.
If your point is a pitcher with bad defense is more likely to have a higher k rate because hell get to face more batters because he wont have as many outs recorded by his defense thats true but its effect on a k/9 is going to be very small with even a moderate sample size. It would be simple enough to use a k/batter faced metric or more advanced strikeout mechanic metrics like the ones mentioned in my first paragraph if you want to eliminate the inning pitched variable.
"As is the case here, an awful lot of people using statistics don't understand what the numbers mean and, as a result, give them meanings they don't have."
I think an awful lot of people are trying to write sentences that don't reread what they wrote, unnecessary transition to a conclusion, and make them difficult to understand.
k/9; average number of strike outs on a 9 inning basis during a sample set of innings pitched. k/9=9*K/IP
TT, are you the guy that's questioned why strike outs are good and walks are bad? Even if you truly believe that certain pitchers have the ability get balls in play turned into outs at much higher rates than the league norm it should still be obvious why strike outs are good and walks are bad.
"If your point is a pitcher with bad defense is more likely to have a higher k rate because hell get to face more batters ... "
What makes you think that bad defense has anything to do with the number of batters a pitcher faces? Pitch counts determine that in most cases and bad results probably is going to result in facing fewer batters, not more.
"its effect on a k/9 is going to be very small with even a moderate sample size"
Take two pitchers who both strike out 6 of 30 batters they don't walk, on average. One gets 3/4 of the other batters out. The other only gets a 2/3. The pitcher who gets fewer batters out will have a K/9 of 7.36 and the pitcher who gets more batters out will have a k/9 of 6.75.
In your view, the first pitcher, who gets fewer outs, is better. But in the real world, everyone will prefer the second.
But the real question is not what effect it has on k/9, the question is why would anyone care? There is no reason to think the proportion of outs a pitcher gets by strikeout has any real meaning.
The example of Liriano is perfect. A pitcher gives pitches a no hit shutout and there is an argument that a different game where he gave up a run was better because he got more outs by strikeout.
Sorry - but that is just plain silly. Next thing you know we'll judging pitchers by how many outs they get by ground ball compared to pop flies. An out is an out.
Just to be clear about that Liriano comparison.
In his 3 hitter he faced 26 batters and threw 110 pitches while getting 21 out and giving up one run. Perkins and Capps had to finish the game.
In his no-hitter he faced 30 batters, he threw 126 pitchers and got 27 outs.
But his k/9 was better in the first game, so it was a better performance? Only in a spreadsheet competition, not in baseball.
Man TT you really dont get it. To an absurd level. The "debate" isnt about whether an out recorded via strikeout is better than an out recorded in the field. Its about whether a strikeout is better on average than a ball in play. A strikeout is an out all the time, a ball in play is an out some of the time. Sometimes balls in play turn into hits. The fewer ball that are put in play, the fewer number of balls have a chance to fall in for a hit.
The thing your missing in your liriano scenario is its not about what happened its about how what he did will typically translate in the future. If liriano walks 6 batters in a game thats typically going to lead to more runs allowed than not walking any because the 6 walks are a lot of extra baserunners. The walks happened to not hurt liriano in his no hitter because he didnt allow any hits. But that was just good fortune.
Everything you write is so low functioning
"Its about whether a strikeout is better on average than a ball in play. "
What does that have to do with K/9? K/9 measures strike outs to compared to all outs, including outs from balls in play. And a strikeout is not better than an out on a ball in play. At least not usually.
"its not about what happened its about how what he did will typically translate in the future."
To be clear, his no hitter translated in the future to the seven inning game performance you prefer. But I understand, in spreadsheet baseball Liriano's seven inning, one run performance where he got 21 outs is better than his complete game, no run performance where he got 27 outs because he got more of his outs by strike out.
"If liriano walks 6 batters in a game thats typically going to lead to more runs allowed than not walking any because the 6 walks are a lot of extra baserunners. "
Uh, yeh, walks are bad. So are hits. So are runs. And again, what does this have to do with K/9?
Or are you just trying to change the subject?
"Everything you write is so low functioning"
You shouldn't make insults when you so clearly don't understand your own numbers.
What you apparently are trying to say is that a strikeout is better than a hit or an error and some balls in play are hits or errors. But K/9 has nothing to do with that. It ONLY includes outs. And all outs are pretty much created equal, at least in aggregate.
you think k/9 has nothing to do with a pitchers ability to strike batters out? I dont have a response. Everything you write is wrong to an extreme level. Im done with this.
Warning: do not attempt to argue with TT. If you've been around Twins blogs for very long, you would know this. TT is not interested in the truth, TT is just interested in arguing. There's an old saying: Don't mudwrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.
"you think k/9 has nothing to do with a pitchers ability to strike batters out"
Actually, I didn't say anything like that. K/9 measures the proportion of outs. Every out effects it, including pick offs, caught stealing, double plays etc.
But, no, it doesn't measure the pitchers "ability to strike batters out" as I have demonstrated above several times. Two pitchers who strike out the same percentage of batters will have often have different k/9's, depending on how many other outs they get. And the pitcher who is better at getting hitters out is going to have a worse k/9, despite striking out the same percentage of hitters.
I realize I am not going to convince you, faith always trumps reason. But I don't want others to think that your faith is fact or to accept your misuse of K/9 as a measure of a pitcher's ability to strike out hitters.
For a good example of just how misleading this use of K/9 can be, take a look at former Twins prospect Billy Bullock. A bunch of fans, apparently relying on his extraordinary k/9 of 14.6 last year at New Britain, complained vociferously about the Twins trading him.
Unfortunately, that k/9 was, in good part, a result of his inability to get batters out as he put up a 1.582 WHIP despite his strike outs, largely because he was extraordinarly unsuccessful getting batters out any other way.
The fact is k/9 is a lousy measure of how good a pitcher is. In fact, a higher k/9 can indicate a better or worse pitcher.
Was curious about the 'quick and dirty' ERA analysis, so did a tiny bit more digging, to pull ERA+ values for the pitchers you compare rather than just ERA.
As a Twin:
Duensing - 125
Silva - 102
Reed - 101
Blackburn - 97
Lohse - 96
Dickey - 95
Perkins - 93
Bonser - 84
Slowey - 96
Keeping in mind that guys like Lohse and Silva pitched for the Twins back when the Metrodome was more of a hitter's park, and Slowey has pitched almost entirely in the era where the Twins have played in neutral-to-pitcher's parks, it's tough to say that Slowey has been just a 'skosh' worse than Silva, or even better than Lohse.
Though, admittedly, I think being as good as Lohse is still valuable to a major-league pitching staff. I can imagine, though, that the Twins have a tough time right now imagining who they'd remove from the rotation to put Slowey in:
- Pavano is the veteran, and though he hasn't pitched especially well, he's been far from the worst starter by the numbers, so you'd think others would be higher on the replacement list.
- Blackburn's been the most consistent starter in the rotation -- he leads in quality starts, ERA, and wins. Tough to take him out now.
- Baker's had the best peripheral numbers, leading in WHIP and K rate. He's also had the hardest luck, with just 5 of his 10 starts resulting in a decision for him. His record would look a lot better with a better bullpen.
- Duensing is the likeliest starter to be demoted at this point -- he has the highest WHIP and is tied for the most losses. But he's a lefty, and he's not that far off a year in which he pitched brilliantly, so the coaching staff may just be waiting to see if he can figure himself out.
- And Liriano has pretty much been Liriano, enigmatic as always. He has the worst ERA in the rotation and the fewest innings per start, despite the no-hitter, and his WHIP is only fractionally better than Duensing's right now. But of course, he has the no-hitter, and legions of fans proclaiming his 'dominance' (even though 'dominance' doesn't necessarily win games, or even serve as a starting pitcher's goal).But we also know how Liriano sulks when he feels disrespected, and he has too much service time to be just sent down to AAA to 'work it out'.
I don't know that Slowey would be worse than any of the guys currently in the rotation, but I also don't know that he'd be any better, to the degree that it would be worth the collateral damage involved in a shake-up.
"Duensing is the likeliest starter to be demoted at this point -- he has the highest WHIP and is tied for the most losses. But he's a lefty"
This is the problem with looking at averages. Duensing's ERA and WHIP are took heavy hits in 3 games at the beginning of May, one in relief. In those three games, he pitched seven innings and gave up 10 runs and 21 base runners.
In his other seven games, he has given up 5 runs once, 4 runs once, 3 runs once, 2 runs 4 times and 1 run twice. He has pitched 7 innings 5 times and 6 the other 2.
In short, the idea that he is the "most likely to be dropped" is plain silly unless you are looking at meaningless totals skewed by a couple outliers.
Its clear the only starter the Twins have ever considered dropping from the rotation is Liriano. Liriano has had 4 starts where he gave up less than 4 runs. Three of those were in May, so we can hope he comes back and continues that run.
The people on here talking about Slowey's win/loss record are showing that they have a VERY limited understanding of baseball. I want to say, just in case no one else has made this clear, that Slowey's win/loss record matters very little. I don't have to look up any other stats to know that, with his horrible ERA he had to have gotten incredible run support to get the number of wins he has gotten. He also has been the beneficiary of what has consistently been one of the best bullpens in the league. So yes, when he leaves a game winning 6-5 in the 7th inning with 2 on and one out and the relievers hold on to the game for him, he gets a win. But he did not win that game. He barely pitched serviceably. Also, if he leaves a game tied 5-5 in the 6th inning or whatever, he will not take a loss if the twins lose, which might explain his low number of losses. I guarantee the Twins know every little relevant stat. I do think it's a little weird that they gave up on him just after signing him to a $2.7 mil contract for the year. I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't a little concerned about that win/loss record coming back to bite them in the ass at an arbitration hearing down the road. I'm assuming arbitrators know the game of baseball, but there are people on here trying to give him a cy young. On a different team , his exact statistics could easily have produced a flip flopped w/l record. It comes to mind though, that once the Twins knew they weren't going to have a stacked bullpen like in the past, they realized they needed starters that weren't going to abuse the current bullpen.I still think he belongs somewhere, starting, in the league. I just wonder if a guy like slowey just doesn't condition himself enough or something.
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