Monday, June 07, 2010

Running Wild

Are opposing teams running more on the Twins, and especially on Joe Mauer? It sure seems like it has been more of a problem this year.

It turns out that Mauer has thrownout 9 of 32 stolen base attempts, which is just 28%. That's actually above last year's 26% rate, but below his career rate of 37%. But it appears that any stolen base problems the Twins are having aren't really the fault of the catchers. They fall primarily on one pitcher'a shoulders, which becomes apparent when you look at how many stolen base attempts and stolen bases each has faced.

Nick Blackburn - 1 attempt, 0 stolen bases
Scott Baker - 3 attempts, 1 stolen base
Francisco Liriano - 4 attempts, 3 stolen bases
Kevin Slowey - 7 attempts, 5 stolen bases
Carl Pavano - 17 attempts, 15 stolen bases

Pavano has given up 60% more stolen bases than the rest of the starting staff COMBINED.


Anonymous said...

Yeah, he don't give a Sh*t.

TT said...

Which kind of tells you how much control the catcher has over stolen bases. When players say they steal on the pitcher, they mean it.

walter hanson said...

Instead of blaming Carl how about you blame the type of pitches he throws.

Baker and Liranio throw fast balls in the mid 90's. Slowley throws low 90's I believe and Blackburn is high 80's. Pavno is much slower than that and he likes to throw a lot of curve balls and outside pitches.

My guess is teams have it figured that they have a great shot of stealing especially if they can predict one of those slow pitches.

Did this breakdown include the type of pitch?

Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN

Anonymous said...

How much longer does it take a curve to reach the catcher versus a fastball? Does the type of pitch make that much of a difference, or is it how the pitcher holds the runner and the location of the pitch?

Anonymous said...

The difference isn't 'what type of pitch it is,' or even how hard the pitcher throws. The difference is in how long it takes from the time the pitcher starts his motion toward the plate until he releases the ball. Pavano is very slow to the plate. Teams run on Pavano because they are able to get a great jump when he's pitching.