The Twins entered yesterday ranked 21st in the major leagues in runs against.
Read that last sentence again. I'm not talking about something minor or quirky here. I'm talking about runs given up, arguably half the game. We've talked a lot about the middle infield, and the #2 hitter, and the bottom of the order, but it is damn hard to be a legitimate contending team when you're pitching and defense are ranked in the bottom third of the majors.
This weekend reflected that ranking. Friday's game can probably be written off in part because Nick Blackburn was just left in too long, but Ron Gardenhire has made that mistake several times this season, and four innings later we saw why. Having milked three innings from the two reliable relievers he has, Gardenhire turned the game over to the rest of the bullpen and watched his closely contested game turn into an 11-5 rout.
Neither Gardenhire or the Twins have many options at this point in the 'pen. Jose Mijares is the third most relieable arm in the bullpen, and he's walked 17 guys in 35 innings while primarily facing left-handed batters. RA Dickey started well, but has an ERA of 8.38 since July 1st. Brian Duensing has been servicable, though he has a WHIP of 1.50 as a reliever. Bobby Keppel looked promising, but has now given up 11 runs and 15 hits in his last six appearances. And Jesse Crain continues to be a wreck.
That's three players - Dickey, Keppel and Crain - who are essentially dead wood right now, waiting to be trimmed. And this weekend, they all got to pitch, because the Twins have three starting pitchers who are also maddeningly inconsistent. Glen Perkins has been good when healthy, very bad when not, and now we don't know what he is. (Though it's worth noting that with an infield defense as full of holes as this one, he deserved a better fate on Sunday.) Anthony Swarzak is a young pitcher, and pitching like a young pitcher. And Francisco Liriano has struggled with his control and self-confidence from inning-to-inning, let alone game-to-game.
How bad is it? I'm including Scott Baker, who has a 4.86 ERA as one of the good starters. The final count is four reliable pitchers, five inconsistent pitchers, and three guys who could very well be swapped out to give a Rochester guy his chance.
That's the situation the Twins face with two months left. The final third of the season is supposed to be when a team makes a run. But this year, the run is going to need to be powered by the Twins arms, not their legs.
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Copyright © 2007 John Bonnes
10 comments:
If the D-Backs do end up signing D.Cabrera I'd sure be nice to see the Twins go after one of their starters.
They looked at Rauch so its not like they haven't talked to the D-Backs lately.
I am not sure that Perkins desevered better yesterday, the pitch to Rodriguez was absolutely grooved, and Morales got a pitch up and over the plate that was destroyed. He made mistakes and they hit the ball hard. Simple and plain.
I am not sure that the bullpen's struggles aren't directly related to the rotation's problems. The reality is that the Twins have recently relied on pitching and defense. The defense has been going downhill for a while and now the pitching is struggling.
The reality is that Cabrera is not an improvement on Punto in the field. Casilla still makes too many rookie mistakes, while he is long past being a rookie. And when Crede isn't in the game, neither Harris nor Buscher are plus fielders at third base.
That said, the year is not over. Its important to remember that the Twins have played more against better teams. They got clobbered by the Angels. That may or may not be indicative of what is going to happen down the stretch.
What is clear is that one starter or one reliever was not going to solve the problem. The young pitchers need to step up.
John,
I'd love to see a column on the real issue with the Twins' reticence in trading "prospects." With Washburn, the issue likely was not that the Twins believed Swarzak a better fit than Washburn, but, instead, that the Twins would have to pay Washburn today when they can muddle along with Swarzak, in servitude, for far longer.
The same likely can be said of the decision not to part with Valencia for Sanchez. Valencia is still in servitude, Sanchez is not.
None of the trade decisions have much of anything to do with talent assessment. Even the Cabrera deal netted the Twins cash (shock).
This is a constant under the Pohlads who have convinced Twins fans that the team is operating in a "small" market and simply does not have the means to compete with the big boys (read "all teams but KC and Pittsburgh") for free agents. That's a canard, but it doesn't really matter if fans fail to call the bluff.
VG
I am not sure that the bullpen's struggles aren't directly related to the rotation's problems.
Or vice versa. How many times this year has Gary left a starter in well past the 'get him out now' point, simply because he has only two relievers he can trust? I can think of 3 times just since the AS break that leaving a starter in too long likely cost the Twins a win.
Budget is an issue with every team, even the Yankees. The Twins are a low revenue team. That is partially because they are in a relatively small market, but sharing a stadium where the football team gets a lion share of the revenues has also been an issue.
If the Twins had traded Swarzak for Washburn it would have been a dumb deal.
Sanchez salary was an issue money for every team, including the Pirates. That's why they settled for a single prospect, albeit more highly regarded than any the Twins had to offer. Its pretty clear that, even with his salary, Sanchez was going to require a lot more than Valencia in return. I don't really think that was the roadblock to a deal.
The Twins are a low revenue team. That is partially because they are in a relatively small market, but sharing a stadium where the football team gets a lion share of the revenues has also been an issue.
And if you think the new ballpark is going to solve that problem, well, I'll be happy to discuss this in 2012, when the Twins attendence has dropped back below their 2008 attendance and we're still talking about the Twins being 'small market'.
Small market is a state of mind. According to US Census Data, the Minneapolis/St Paul area has the fourth-highest median income in the country -- ahead of Boston, ahead of Chicago, ahead of every other AL city except Oakland and Baltimore.
The Twins don't spend money because they don't need to spend money -- nobody, nobody holds their feet to the fire and threatens them with professional extinction if they don't.
"Minneapolis/St Paul area has the fourth-highest median income in the country"
To which the obvious answer is so what?
"The Twins don't spend money because they don't need to spend money"
The Twins don't spend money because they don't HAVE it. Their payroll is not low relative to their actual revenue.
My fear is that the Twins stop being cheap. If they spend the new money as wisely as they manage their current payroll, it will be fun to be a Twins fan for a long time.
"it is damn hard to be a legitimate contending team when you're pitching and defense are ranked in the bottom third of the majors."
I agree with that statement for the most part, but I would like to point out that the Angels' run prevention is worse than the Twins', even after this last weekend. The name of the game is scoring more runs than your opponent. I don't think one starter would have done much, other than Lee or Halladay, but that wasn't happening, and I think the Twins' best chances for internal improvement are in the bullpen with guys like Rob Delaney and Anthony Slama, etc. So, I'm fine with the Twins looking to improve the everyday lineup in the middle infield. Not sure Cabrera was the answer, though.
"If the Twins had traded Swarzak for Washburn it would have been a dumb deal."
Not sure why that is necessarily so, given that we have little by which to project for Swarzak. The point, however, is not that Swarzak for Washburn, or even Perkins for Washburn was the deal to make, but that the Twins had no intention of making any deal for a pitcher that was getting money today if it meant giving up a pitcher who is not getting money today.
"Its pretty clear that, even with his salary, Sanchez was going to require a lot more than Valencia in return."
I don't think this was at all clear, particularly given what the Twins said the Pirates wanted (Valencia) and what the Pirates ultimately received. "A lot more"? What is that? Valencia and another "prospect" for a bona fide middle infielder? Sounds reasonable, unless the weight of the consideration is on how much each player will cost.
DW said it best--far too few fans hold the feet of this team's ownership to the fire and too many simply accept the "small market" nonsense. But it's actually far worse than that, as the Twins' front office merely pretends that it is making legitimate efforts to bring in the necessary pieces as a PR ploy.
I'm not sure if it's more annoying that the Twins continue to pretend that their decisions are predicated on not wanting to part with prospects rather than the servitude that those prospects mean, or that a large segment of the Twins' fan base continues to argue that the fans who continue to flock to the Dome and are paying for the Pohlads to earn $40 million more a year (the Twins' number) by virtue of a publicly funded stadium have no right to request that the Pohlad's reinvest a good chunk of that money in the team.
VG
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