Louis Winthorpe III: Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Always go for the throat. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the absolute carnage you are about to witness. Super Bowl, World Series - they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One minute you're up half a million in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?Billy Ray Valentine: Yeah, we got to kill the motherf****** - we got to kill 'em!
- Dan Akroyd (when he was funny) and Eddie Murphy in Trading Places
You might hear the dread silence of three days without meaningful baseball. I hear an opening bell.
I suppose some would say the trade deadline “season” really begins around June 1st, but the All-Star break signifies when things get serious. For Twins fans that should be doubly true. Check that – triply true. Let’s count the positive signs for a deal getting done.
1. The Twins have at least one position of extreme need
2. There are plenty of trade candidates available
3. The Twins have financial flexibility, both this year and next.
Add them up, and I don’t think I’ve been this sure about the Twins making a trade since the Johan Santana death watch.
The Twins rank 30th in the league in OPS at second base, and they’ve done so while having a below average defense. Finding a mediocre middle infielder, both offensively and defensively, would provide a significant lift to this team’s performance and to Twins Territory’s morale.
Fortunately, there are several middle infielders who qualify available, and some of them are considerably better than mediocre. Joe Christensen has broached the subject of acquiring Freddy Sanchez, and there’s also his teammate Jack Wilson. And there are plenty of others, depending on what you’re looking for.
Looking to do no more than plug a hole? How about infamous Twins killer Adam Kennedy from the floundering Athletics? Those willing to gamble a bit might favor the upside of Felipe Lopez on the Diamondbacks. For those interested in a three-way deal, there’s the Braves Yunel Escobar. For those willing to take back a little salary, there’s Cristian Guzman and Julio Lugo.
Every one of those guys is a realistic trade target. If you want to dream bigger, how about Dan Uggla or Brian Roberts? (Emphasis in that last sentence should be on “dream”.) And of course we haven’t even talked about the various relievers that might improve the beleaguered bullpen.
So I suspect that’s going to be the focus of TwinsGeek.com for the next few weeks, or until the first big need is filled, whichever comes first. To kick it off, I’ve partnered with Seth Stohs, Parker Hagemann, and Nick Nelson to offer the Twinscentric 2009 Trade Deadline Primer. It is 65 pages and 30,000+ words breaking down the trade deadline from a Twins fans point of view. It includes:
• Breakdowns of the Twins organization, looking at strengths and needs, both now and in the future.
• Team Reviews on the other 29 teams, looking at whether they are buyers or sellers, and what they need and have.
• Profiles on over 100 players that the Twins could, or should, have interest.
• Essays on the Twins payroll situation in 2009 and 2010 and internal options they have.
I’m responsible for about one-quarter of the content and had in editing almost all of the rest. It’s available for download for $9.95 using this button.**
And if you aren’t satisfied with it, let us know and we’ll refund your money.So while today represents a little vacation for major league baseball, it also represents an awfully fun season for the fans. The closing bell rings on July 31st. Given all the opportunities the Twins have to make a significant move this year, I’m hopeful they won’t end up like Mortimer and Randolph Duke.
President of Exchange: [Randolph Duke has just collapsed with shock] Mortimer, your brother is not well. We better call an ambulance.
Mortimer Duke: F*** him! Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!
[shouts - it echoes pathetically throughout the trading hall]
Mortimer Duke: Turn those machines back on!
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** I anticipate some people will be disappointed that some of the bloggers who you’ve supported for years are offering a project but demanding payment for it. I understnad it, but I have no reservations whatsoever about doing this, and here’s why:
This is the eighth year I've operated this site, and during that time I’ve seen a lot of very good Twins blogging sites go away. Actually, I’ve seen so many go away I’m hesitant to mention names, because I am going to forget them. But off the top of my head, I miss Will Young’s extensive analysis of the organization. I miss Twins Junkie’s interviews. I miss TwinsTerritory.com’s community and the Dickie Thon Twins Board discussions. And I miss Bat Girl’s sass.
I miss them, but I don’t blame them for stopping. This is a labor of love, but it IS ABSOLUTELY A LABOR, and we all have other loves too. I walked away from this site in October of 2005 because my energy was giving out and I didn’t see a future. And it’s worth noting that even after I returned I post roughly half as much as I used to.
This project represents an attempt at finding the future I couldn’t find in October 2005, not just for myself, but for the entire Twins blogging community. I’m not saying I want people to buy this to support the bloggers whose content they read every day. But if you value their work enough to give them your attention every morning, perhaps you might like special content from them a few times a year. If you enjoy their writing, you’re almost guaranteed to enjoy this book.
And by the way, I also hope you’ll care enough to give us feedback on it. We have a email address that we can all access at TwinsCentric@gmail.com, and I would love any thoughts you have on the idea, the project, the book, or future endeavors.
Posts
11 comments:
This is an awesome idea; take up-to-the-minute analysis and commentary and put it into the hands of the people who most want it. Outstanding idea.
But...
I can understand why you'd price it this way; it's a lot of work and you'd like to see some of that work compensated. And I can see why, putting the book together, you'd see how it has value beyond just the trade deadline and could even have use in the ensuing off-season. I can even see where the specific targetting of the information to Twins fans and observers should be thought of as adding value.
But...
Baseball Prospectus lists for $22, is available prior to the season, covers every team, and is just as evergreen as this work would be.
Ditto the Hardball Times Baseball Annual.
Both of these can currently be ordered, as actual bound books, from Amazon for about the same price as this PDF.
It's an awesome idea, but $10 is too much for me to bite.
I thought about addressing this in the story. I wish I had. I'll take a stab at it here, because I think it's worth detailing how we settled on the price.
First I should say that pricing isn't an exact science.
Second, I would argue that this is a much more specialized product to the regular baseball annuals that you mentioned because it's more timely and it focuses on everything through the lens of a Twins fan. It's comparable to comparing Seth's Twins Minor League Prospect Handbook to a more general minor league prospect handbook. One is just more generalized than the other.
Third, I'll agree I'd like this to be a bound book, but doing it as an ebook allows it to be shipped and received IMMEDIATELY. Twins fans have a small window to really focus on this stuff, I feel like that immediacy is important.
And finally, that's partly how we set the price point. The bound book that this was most similar to was Seth's prospect handbook, and because that was bound, he couldn't offer it for less than $12.95 + shipping + handling - and that was for pre-orders. Because this is an ebook, we dropped the price to $9.95 without any shipping or handling charge.
Anyway, that's why it's priced like it is. I'd suggest you try it David. Like I said, there's a money-back guarantee. If after you take a look at it, you still think it wasn't worth the money, I'll be happy to refund you the difference between what you think we should've priced it and what you paid.
If I had $10, I would totally buy this.
Given the historical trend of the Twins not making a significant move at the trade deadline, I am hesitant to shell out 10 bucks for content which is geared towards convincing me we should make a move for a certain player. The ebook would only multiply my disappointment is what is likely to not happen.
Also, this exclusive content smells alot like the ESPN Insider, which has always bothered me. I don't want to see my favorite bloggers move towards a model where the consumer is charged. If this becomes successful, the potential exists for this model to apply towards a Postseason product and a Preseason product next year. Though you would make some money, I would expect the readership volume would decrease, which leads to...
Perhaps selling ads would be a way to generate some revenue?
Buying the book right now. You and Seth are my top sites I visit each day, and I'll do anything I can to support you guys. Thanks again for all your great work over the years!
$10 is nothing compared to all the money I waste on cable TV for ESPN and FSN :)
Ah, wow. No chance the Twins make a significant trade.
They just did in calling up Casilla! Just ask them.
They are becoming rather embarrassing as to how they run this franchise. We have 15 Glen Perkins/Swarzak type pitchers out there, who we could get something for, but it will never happen.
We need to come up with some sort of blogger/reader bet on whether or not the Twins will make a trade. I couldn't be more convinced they'll do something. I'm open to ideas. I'll certainly rip them a new one if they don't. There is simply no excuse.
If the Twins don't make a trade by July 31 - and I mean acquire someone similar to the seven guys I already mentioned, what would you like to see? And if they do, what would you do the day after, dear readers?
Oh, and I think they called Casilla up to showcase him, not because they think he's the answer. He couldn't be much further in the organization's doghouse right now.
We need to come up with some sort of blogger/reader bet on whether or not the Twins will make a trade. I couldn't be more convinced they'll do something. I'm open to ideas. I'll certainly rip them a new one if they don't. There is simply no excuse.
If the Twins don't make a trade by July 31 - and I mean acquire someone similar to the seven guys I already mentioned, what would you like to see? And if they do, what would you do the day after, dear readers?
Oh, and I think they called Casilla up to showcase him, not because they think he's the answer. He couldn't be much further in the organization's doghouse right now.
Also, this exclusive content smells alot like the ESPN Insider, which has always bothered me. I don't want to see my favorite bloggers move towards a model where the consumer is charged.
Actually, this is quite the opposite. Doing something like this a few times a year provides an opportunity to make this venture slightly profitable while keeping all the regular blog content free and accessible. This system is a distinct alternative to the model you fear, so I'd think you'd be pleased with it rather than concerned.
Perhaps selling ads would be a way to generate some revenue?
Easier said than done, in this economy.
If bloggers are all going to start charging for their content, where is Aaron Gleeman going to get his story ideas?
I am not sure why people would pay more for a bound book that is out of date even before you buy it. If someone is deep enough into speculation about baseball to buy Prospectus or Hardball Times, this likely going to be a lot more valuable. Good luck to all of you on your new venture.
I have a bet idea. If you are correct and the Twins do make a significant trade for either a second baseman, relief pitcher, or starting pitcher I will provide a Happy Gilmore style apology in the comments of that trade entry at TwinsGeek.com (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnIZfn6XKF4). If some of your more pessimistic/negative readers are correct and the Twins choose to spend trade deadline fishing or calling up some random Redwing to fail (Casilla, Duensing, Humber, Crain) then you will write an entry describing that since Jim Pohlad took over as Twins CEO in April 2007 (http://www.startribune.com/sports/11710871.html) and Billy Smith took over in the Fall of 2007 the Twins have been making the “cheap” days of Terry Ryan and Carl Pohlad look like the glory days. In 2008 despite having payroll room we let Hunter and Santana go. In 2009 despite having payroll room the only move we make is to sign Joe Crede after every other team in the league passed and we were his only choice. Despite having a projected $20-25 million in available payroll for 2010 the Twins are making noises that Freddy Sanchez’s $8 million/1yr deal is too much money and still have not signed Mauer to an extension. Just rip into the ownership and management.
Jesse
2010 Payroll Estimate
Role Player Status Salary ($M)
C Mauer Contract $12.500
1B Morneau Contract $14.000
2B Casilla Serfdom $0.425
3B Buscher Serfdom $0.425
SS Punto Contrct $4.000
RF Cuddyer Contract $8.500
CF Span Serfdom $0.425
LF Young Arbitration $2.200
DH Kubel Contract $4.100
BKUP MI Harris Arbitration $1.500
BKUP CI Tolbert Serfdom $0.425
4TH OF Gomez Arbitration $1.800
BKUP C Morales Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 1 Liriano Arbitration $2.400
STARTER 2 Blackburn Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 3 Baker Contract $3.000
STARTER 4 Perkins Arbitration $1.600
STARTER 5 Slowey Serfdom $0.425
Closer Nathan Contract $11.25
RH SETUP Neshek Arbitration $1.000
LH SETUP Mijares Serfdom $0.425
MR Keppel Serfdom $0.425
MR Dickey Arbitration $0.750
LONG MR Morrillo Serfdom $0.425
LONG MR Guerrier Arbitration $2.500
TOTAL SALARY $75.35 $75.35
PROJECTED 100
AVAILABLE $24.65
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