Saturday, December 06, 2008

Break from Blake

The TwinsGeek iPhone started buzzing this afternoon as Twins Territory digested LaVelle E Neal's report that the Twins have cut off negotiations with Casey Blake. That sounds like reason enough for a mid weekend update....

As usual, the sticking point wasn't money per year, but the length of the guaranteed deal. The common wisdom about the Twins is that they are too damn cheap to pay free agents, but if you look at who they lost and why, it becomes apparent that the sticking point is almost always about the length of the deal, not the money. Pick your favorite ex-Twins - Santana, Hunter, Koskie, Guardado - nearly every player the Twins lost because they wouldn't guarantee money several years down the road, not because they weren't in the ballpark for the upcoming year.

The exception that proves the rule is David Ortiz. Good lord, the further we get away from that move, the more tragic it appears to be. And I'm not being critical of the Twins when I say that, any more than I'm critical of someone who is blindsided by a speeding bus at an intersection. I didn't see it coming either. That doesn't make it less tragic.

Anyway, it's the length of the deal, not the amount of the deal, that dictates signing Mike Lamb and Adam Everett and Tony Batista and Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson and....

Holy cow. I can't go on listing these guys. I think I could name twenty of them. This started as such an upbeat entry. Instead I've stumbled into Big Papi memories and a litany of guys who are working their way out of the league. Let's get back to the main point....

It's defendable to not guarantee a 35-year-old Casey Blake that you're going to pay him $7-8 million three years from now. But let's hope that after taking that rather bold stand that the Twins don't chicken out in a month or two. If they're willing to walk away from Blake over that 2011 paycheck to stick with the Brian Buscher/Brandon Harris platoon, please don't cave in with a Ty Wigginton trade or a free agent contract for Morgan Ensberg in January.

Financial Creativity
The financial critics of the Twins can rightly claim that it doesn't really matter whether the Twins don't sign these guys because they don't want to spend the money or because they don't want to guarantee a long term deal. Either way, they don't get them.

It's a valid criticism because this looks to be the second year in a row where the Twins will leave tens of millions of dollars of projected payroll on the table (or more accurately, in Carl's pockets). With a farm system that produces major-league ready talent and a hard-wired resentment towards long-term deals, this club is having a lot of money finding a way to spend it's money.

It's easy to say they can always find a way to spend that money, but try doing some analysis on how you would spend $20 million if it couldn't be on MLB players. The Twins will rarely spend much in the draft because they draft low and don't want to undermine the draft slot system that was created to protect them. Long term deals don't require money up front like NFL contracts do, and all it really saves is a million or two down the road. International players and complexes aren't something you throw an extra $10 millon at in one year - you set a budget that provides a long-term commitment to its development. And it's not like you can roll all the money over to the next year - Uncle Sam takes his chunk at the end of the year, whether you spend it or not.

The Twins might need to start getting a little more creative with their contracts. Instead of offering Blake a 3-year $22 million deal, how about a 2-year $18 million deal? Or even a 1-year, $13 million deal? Or a series of one-year deals for $11 million with player options that vests if he has 500 at-bats? Yeah, it's crazy money to spend on Casey Blake. But it's even crazier to spend it on nothing.

A New Name
Neal was nice enough to throw out a new name for us - Jason Donald, the shortstop prospect of the Philadelphia Phillies. He's right-handed and did fairly well in AA (.307/.391/.458) as a 23-year-old. That's not young for that level, but those are nice enough numbers, and Neal points out that he had a very nice stint in the Arizona Fall League too. I'm sure the Twins would love to have him in their organization.

But he also doesn't profile as someone the Twins would assume is ready for a starting major league job this spring. So even if they do trade for him, they're going to need to figure out something for this year, and that something will likely smell a lot like Juan Castro/Adam Everett. Oh, and is it likely that the Phillies will be willing to part with him for a back-end starter? Nope.

Targeting Furcal
Apparently Rafael Furcal just walked away from a 4-year $35-40 million offer from the Athletics, and that leaves him with.....well, nobody's sure that leaves him with anything. Like Blake, the market for him seems much leaner than anyone really anticipated two months ago. Is he worth taking a look at?

Well, he doesn't address the Twins greatest need, the power right-handed bat. But he's a disciplined switch-hitter and leadoff guy who would be an asset at the top of the order. His career OBP is .352, and he's good for 25-30 stolen bases per year, providing he stays healthy. He wasn't last year, missing most of the season with back surgery, and that's pretty clearly scared some suitors off.

But at just 31 years old, he's the kind of guy the Twins could give a four-year deal to and feel confident the latter years won't be wasted. And it's not like the Twins have some high-impact middle infielders that he would block. And it's not like the Twins don't have the money.

Hmm....Span, Furcal, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, Buscher/Harris, Casilla. I'd be OK with that.

Yeah, Furcal is worth considering and talking to. He has plenty of upside compared to somone like Blake, and despite a longer deal it looks less risky. He makes sense for the Twins, if they choose to try and shock the world.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

except he'd cost a draft pick.... no chance.

I do agree they need to get creative on spending some of that cash...

That may be through extending some of the talen that they have (Mauer should get extended for sure!)

TT said...

it becomes apparent that the sticking point is almost always about the length of the deal, not the money.

Its about money. If Blake would take $12 million for three years, the Twins would do the deal. And if the Twins would pay Blake $16 million for two years, Blake would do the deal. Its about money.

John said...

Furcal doesn't cost a draft pick. He neither qualifies as a type A or B and on top of that the Dodgers didn't offer him arbitration.

John said...

And we'll need to see what Nlake signs for. If Blake would take 2 years at $16m, I'd sign him.

Aaron Fix said...

"Span, Furcal, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, Buscher/Harris, Casilla.

That's pretty wishful thinking. Gardenhire/Smith will have Gomez's .230 OBP in the lineup on a daily basis, rather than in AAA where he belongs.

Anonymous said...

Just a question, who would you be more interested in from Colorado, Garrett Atkins at 3rd or Clint Barmes at SS or 2B whichever plays better around Casilla?

Just a thought,
Shannon

TT said...

If Blake would take 2 years at $16m

I actually meant $18 million - i.e. same money as he would get over three years. Its really the money, not the years.

Anonymous said...

John, my apologies...your concern about Jack Wilson signing here are no longer unfounded since the Tigers went for Adam Everett. (BTW, WTF?)

Given the choice between a costly, declining veteran (Wilson or possibly Tejada) and a young up-and-comer at SS (Donald), who are the Twins more likely to go for?

neckrolls said...

I'm with you on Furcal. Considering the Twins wouldn't have to give anybody up to get him, signing him for a lot of money might not be as costly as trading for somebody else.

Jesse H said...

Speaking of financial creativity, I would love to see the table of salaries you put together last season. Here is what I have so far:

Role Player Status Salary ($M) Bonus
C Mauer Contract $10.500
1B Morneau Contract $10.600
2B Harris Serfdom $0.425
3B Buscher Serfdom $0.425
SS Casilla Serfdom $0.425
RF Cuddyer Contract $6.750
CF Span Serfdom $0.425
LF Young Serfdom $0.425
DH Kubel Arbitration $2.500

STARTER 1 Liriano Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 2 Blackburn Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 3 Baker Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 4 Perkins Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 5 Slowey Serfdom $0.425

BKUP MI Punto Contract $3.000
BKUP CI Tolbert Serfdom $0.425
4TH OF Gomez Contract $0.425
BKUP C Redmond Contract $0.950

CLOSER Nathan Contract $11.250
RH SETUP Humber Serfdom $0.425
LH SETUP Breslow Serfdom $0.425
MR Mijares Serfdom $0.425
MR Crain Contract $1.700
LONG MR Bonser Serfdom $0.425
LONG MR Guerrier Arbitration $1.500

TOTAL SALARY $55.550 $0.00 $55.55
PROJECTED 80
AVAILABLE $24.45