GameDay Chatter: Learning from Tithonus

During the 2009 season, the Twins Radio Network is going extend their broadcasting after each Sunday game to include a couple of hours or Twins sports talk with Jack Morris and Chris Atteberry. And yes, this means your Sunday's are completely shot to hell.

This show is going to include a weekly 'rant' by a GameDay writer/blogger called 'GameDay Chatter'. You'll find this week's below. If you're interested in hearing the audio, or talking with Morris or Atteberry about it, be sure to tune in on Sunday.

You would think we woulda learned something from Tithonus.

Tithonus is the greek dude who was granted immortality. Turns out he shoulda asked for perpetual youth. Important difference. Instead, he grew older and older, but couldn't die. Eventually he was turned into a cicada, constantly shrieking for the sweet release of death. Fun story.

For a more upbeat version we could turn to the movie Groundhog Day. The one where Bill Murray is trapped within the same day over and over, awakening to Sonny and Cher, dealing with the overly friendly insurance salesman who sure as heckfire remembers him, and getting snowbound in Puxatawny. That one ended happier, as the gods granted Murray his release.

And the gods have similarly favored us in our imminent release from the Metrodome. Where it's always 70 and - teflon. Where it never rains, but we never see the sun. A climate-controlled mausoleum, where, you'll recall, baseball nearly went to die. From a disease called "contraction".

So can somebody PLEASE explain to me why, on the verge of gaining our outdoor stadium, so many of us have an obsessive need to point out how cold the weather can be in the first week of April? As if they figured out something the rest of us don't know? We're Minnesotans. We get it. It gets cold and hot and cold again. They're called "seasons". Some of us actually embrace them.

Listen, if we wanted the weather to always be 70 and drab, why the heckfire would we live here? If you miss the dome's "weather", I've got the perfect remedy for you - stay home. And since you won't need those tickets to the new ballpark, send them my way. You can even slide them under the door, lest opening it subject you to carcinogenic sun rays that might compromise your quest for immortality.

I'll be outside. Acting like a perpetual youth.

The Five Basic Questions - 4/9/09

Sample size, shmample shmize. We've had three whole games, so let's wrap up the series prematurely while prematurely evaluating the 2009 season with The Five Basic Questions:

1. What's Most Promising?
No question, it's the performance of the top of the lineup. Last year the Twins discovered their leadoff hitter for the next five years, and this year it looks like they've found their #2 hitter.
Denard Span seems to have shaken off the lingering doubts that haunted him during spring training and has become THE indispensable outfielder. Seriously, who do you replace him with at the top of the order right now? More about that dilemna later....

And we're starting to see Alexi Casilla develop into a quality #2 hitter. He had a workmanlike spring training, battles at the top of the order, and has a quiet confidence about being able to put a bat on the ball. If Mauer comes back, the top six spots in this lineup become officially scary.

2. What's Most Worrisome?
The Twins have played three games and not one of them has been a quality start, and their Opening Day pitcher is already on the DL. The Twins rotation is the key difference between this team and the rest of the division. There are other teams with better offenses. There are other teams with better bullpens. But there isn't an AL Central team that should be able to compete with the Twins in terms of providing a quality start day in and day out. And the starting staff hasn't delivered.

Oh, and that's at home, against a team that finished last in the weakest AL division. Two come-from-behind wins are papering over the fact that this team could have started 0 for 3.

2. What's Most Unexpected?
I think we assumed we were gonna see four outfielders fighting for three spots, or five outfielders fighting for four spots. Instead, it looks like its going to be three outfielders for two spots.

And for the record, I think Gardenhire is right. How often can Gardy sit down his only leadoff guy? And how often is he going to sit down Cuddyer while Mauer is out? Not as long as Cuddyer does enough to hold down the #3 spot.

That leaves Young and Gomez sitting out against right-handers and Kubel or Gomez sitting out against most left-handers. If I had odds, I'd put money on Gomez being the odd man out tomorrow. And I wouldn't be shocked if we get through Chicago with either Span or Cuddyer (or both) having played every game.

4. Where Is This Team Right Now?
Keeping their head above water, but certainly not elite. The striking thing about this series is how similar these teams looked. They had similar rotations, lineups, defense and middle relievers. The biggest difference was the closer, and that's why the Twins are leading two games to one instead of losing two games to one.

I suppose that doesn't bode terribly well for the future. But in truth, Seattle looked a lot better than most people probably thing they're going to be. They've made some good personnel moves, they seem to play smart baseball, and the manager uses the bullpen effectively. I'm really surprised that a management team that put this team together dropped the ball on getting an effective left-handed reliever. That's a pretty big oversight, especially against the Twins.

5. What's Next?
This series would feel a lot better with a 3-1 series win than with a 2-2 split. Looking at most Twins career numbers against Washburn can make a guy pretty pessimistic. (For that info, check out DugoutSplinters.com). But I'm also more comfortable with a left-hander like Perkins facing the meat of that Mariners order. If Perkins can deliver that elusive first quality start, the Twins should find a way to win this game.

And after that, the Twins get to visit Chicago. I expect the White Sox to struggle a little this year, though probably less than people expect. Even so, the White Sox will be favorites in two games of that series, just because of the pitching matchups. So a win tomorrow sets up the Twins with a very good chance of returning home next week as a winning team. A loss makes that an uphill climb.

No, I Mean What's Next for the Site?
Oh. I'll be back on Friday with a GameDay Chatter rant for the Twins Radio Network. And tonight at 10:00, be sure to listen to MNGameNight.com where Seth Stohs and I will wrap up this first series and preview the White Sox. And finally, if you want to try your hand at getting twittered, sign up at Twitter.com\twinsgeek for Twins tweets that can be sent directly to your cellular phone. See you tomorrow.

Palmer and Thorn and Denard's Decision

There could be a ton of great stuff to cover tonight, so let's lighting round through them quickly before we get to something that I've been meaning to study for several years.

Michael Cuddyer batting third - Until Joe Mauer comes back, the Twins are going to need to piece together the middle of the order, and I'm not sure how much it usually matter one batter versus another. But it mattered tonight.

Cuddyer got the lone RBI, but he also left a couple of other scoring chances on the field, and he looked overmatched. That can happen for right-handed hitters facing King Felix. So the logical question is "Why was a right-handed hitter batting third?"

It isn't because Gardy didn't want to bat two left-handers next to each other, because two lefties still did end up batting next to each other, in the fourth and fifth spots. It wasn't because Gardy wanted to guard against a late left-handed reliever being used, becaue Seattle's bullpen doesn't have a left-handed reliever.

It's a puzzling choice. On the other hand, it would make perfect sense tonight against the left-handed Erik Bedard, especially because Cuddyer has hit Bedard (3 for 12) better than either Delmon Young (2-15) or Joe Crede (o-11). Don't be shocked if it's Mike Redmond (2 for 5).

The Bullpen Meltdown - Like the Twins this offseason, I think I'm just going to ignore this for a little while. Let's leave it at this: Nice job, guys.

Sitting Delmon Young - In general, I like Gardenhire's approach to this. He's going to play them all and let it sort itself out. And I think it will. After all, let's not forget that there's a reason why none of them are above this little competition. They all could be capable starters, but they all also have their flaws.

Tonight I thought Gardy's choices made the team better. I'm not crazy about penciling Gomez's name above line 8 in my scorecard, but I need to admit the outfield defense really did shine. Gomez made a catch that Span probably doesn't make in center. And Span made three catches tonight that Young doesn't make in left. Of course, I wonder if he really should have made all three of those, so let's move onto our next topic. But first, a little shout out to AT&T....

My Tweeting - I'd like to give a shout out to AT&T, whose 3G network apparently couldn't handle 50,000 people in the area of the dome. So I couldn't shoot out a blog post or a single tweet. Nice job guys.

Denard's Foul Catch - The Mariners scored their first run tonight on a play one seldom sees. With Adrian Beltre on third base and one outs, Jose Lopez hit a fairly deep fly ball to left field that was going to be about 25 feet into foul territory. Span chose to catch it, Beltre tagged up and came home, and the throw from Span wasn't particularly close. Mariners led 1 to 0.

I winced a little, suspecting that "The Book" would say that ball should've been allowed to drop. I think it was obvious to most that by catching it, Span was conceding the run, and Span is heady enough that I suspect he knew the same thing. It was the leading run, so that's bad. But it's also early in the game, so that's good. So I wanted to research what various baseball mathematical models would say about the decision.

First, let's check out Palmer and Thorn's Expected Run Matrix. It's a neat grid that shows, given a certain number of outs and people on base, the average number of runs that should score that inning, based on 75 years of major league games. It was published in The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. It looks like this, and I've bolded the appropriate squares:

OUTS	None	1st	2nd	3rd	1st & 2nd	1st & 3rd	2nd & 3rd	Full
0 Outs	0.454	0.783	1.068	1.277	1.38	1.639	1.946	2.254
1 Out	0.249	0.478	0.699	0.897	0.888	1.088	1.371	1.546
2 Outs	0.095	0.209	0.348	0.382	0.457	0.494	0.661	0.798

- With a runner on 3rd and one out, one would expect to give up .897 runs. That's the situation if Span doesn't catch the ball.
- With two outs and nobody on, one would expect to give up just .095 runs, but of course a run has also scored, so that's 1.095 runs. That's the situation if Span caught the ball.
- By catching the ball, on average, Span gave up an extra tenth of a run.

So according to Palmer and Thorn, it's fairly close, but the smart move is generally to let the ball drop. Considering Lopez isn't an especially dangerous hitter, and the count would be 1-2, and Francisco Liriano was on the mound, I think the context supports that idea too.

But before we move on, I want to check one other model. Fangraphs.com has a beautiful method for tracking the outcomes of a game called Win Probability. The idea is similar to the one above. For just about every conceivable situation and find the probability of a team winning that game, based on what has happened historically in that situation.

From yesterday's game graph, it looks like the Twins chances of winning that game decreased from 45.3% to 43.2% with that catch. If it was a smart move (and it would have been if the game was later and the Twins held a decent lead) you would have seen the probability increase.

So, it's like we thought at the time. Probably not a good move, but not particularly damaging or stupid either. Which bring me to my next shout out....

Bridge Work on 35W last night at 10:00 - It's nice to know that a little thing like 50,000 fans in cars doesn't stop MNDOT from reducing the major artery from downtown to just one lane. Way to play through adversity guys. Nice job. If you really want to impress me, you should do the same thing tomorrow during rush hour. You know,if it's convenient for you.

Podcast - Which reminds me, if you would like to hear my live reaction to MNDOT's decision, or the 'shout out' I gave to the bassbowl determined to halt any thought of merging, you'll want to check out Seth Stoh's and my podcast last night at MNGameNight.com. And join me tonight, too, while I break down the Bedard/Blackburn duel.

Opening Day 2009!

Last year for opening series, I wrote this in GameDay’s Dugout Splinters:

If you were a Yankees fan who wanted to win a World Series, you could just sit back and wait for the top free agent to hit the market and demand your team sign him. And, I suppose, if you wanted to be a successful parent, you could just adopt a 17-year-old National Merit Scholar.

But Twins fans are like the rest of us parents. We understand that it is infinitely more rewarding to see success come from someone in whom we’ve invested some time.

It still holds true, and so we're going to look at 12 reasons to watch this year, no matter what happens. But this year, in preparation of developing a Twitterholic dependency, I’m gonna try to capture these 12 players twitter-style, in 140 characters or less.

We’ll go with the first seven right now and I’ll release the last five exclusively through the new Twitter account gradually before today’s game. (Sign up!) So which 12 stories am I most interested in following? Starting at #12...

12 Cuddyer-I don't believe 2006 was a fluke. Slug the inside stuff and bloop the outside stuff big fella. That’s all I’m looking for.

11 DYoung-Spring: 65 AB, 0BB, 10K. Pulling the ball is easy. Identifying which pitch to pull is not. Adversity is coming for this guy. Wince.

10 PHumber-His numbers from the 2nd half of AAA suggest he can be very valuable. But will he overcome the learning curve fast enough?

9 RADickey-Knuckleballers stats are often much better indoors. Lets turn on those blowers behind home plate and see what happens.

8 Kubel-I know he’s a breakout candidate, but can he hit LHs? Gardy still hasn’t given him even 100 AB against them, and he hasn’t deserved them.

7 Slowey-Everyone's favorite breakout pitcher, but didn't he breakout last year? 160IP, 123K, 24BB, 3.99ERA. Shame on us for not noticing.

6 Crain-Spring: 8K, 1BB, 10IP. I don’t totally trust him for the 8th, but I'm looking forward to seeing him. Could have a HUGE impact.

Tweeter
Again, I’d love to have you follow me all baseball season in Tweeter, especially because with the new GameDay/Twins partnership, I should have significantly more access. Tomorrow I'll tweet the second half of this list, and I’ll be tweeting throughout the home opener, too. And if you don’t want to sign up for Twitter for whatever reason, notice that my tweets are also displayed over on the right-hand side.

Podcast
But wait! There's more! Because Seth Stohs and I are also going to be podcasting weeknights after Twins games too. We’re starting tonight at 10:00 at MNGameNight.com. Stop by and listen or download it to your ipod. We would love to know what you think.

DugoutSplinters.com
And finally, GameDay will be providing online updates for the Dugout Splinters that you can find in every Twins Official Scorecard (sold for just $1!). You can find them before every Twins home game at DugoutSplinters.com. I just posted the pitching probables for what should be a doozy tonight at the dome.

GameDay Chatter: Grating Expectations

During the 2009 season, the Twins Radio Network is going extend their broadcasting after each Sunday game to include a couple of hours or Twins sports talk with Jack Morris and Chris Atteberry. And yes, this means your Sunday's are completely shot to hell.

This show is going to include a weekly 'rant' by a GameDay writer/blogger called 'GameDay Chatter'. Since we were a little pressed for time this week, I wrote up this one, and you'll find a draft of it below. If you're interested in hearing the audio, or talking with Morris or Atteberry about it, be sure to tune in on Sunday.

Grating Expectations

At the risk of offending the baseball gods, is anyone else smirking when they hear that the real AL Central favorite this year is the Cleveland Indians? Admirers will point out that the Indians record after the all-star break. And their run differential. And that they were devastated by injuries and had a productive offseason.

It sounds good until you realize we’ve heard all this before. This will be the Indians fifth straight year as at least a co-favorite in the division, and they’ve made it to the playoffs just once. Last year they were so dismal that they folded at the beginning of July, trading away CC Sabathia. Who they didn’t replace during that “productive” offseason.

Which, by the way, looks a lot less productive than it did in January. Acquiring Mark DeRosa from the Cubs was supposed to initiate a shift in player positions that would tighten the Indians infield defense and provide a little extra offense. Except that manager Eric Wedge hasn’t shifted the players, so they essentially have three infielders now playing out of position.

And their new closer, Kerry Wood, is universally considered one of the top closers in the American League, provided his arm holds up. Now that is aweso……hold it. What was that last part? You see, Wood hasn’t had a perfectly healthy year since 2002. His first spring training appearance was mid-March because – wanna guess - he was hurt.

And I haven’t even mentioned the injury-ridden back of the rotation. Or the fact that last year’s ace, Cliff Lee, is posting a 12+ ERA while begging for a long term extension. Uh, how’s the arm feeling, Cliff?

The Indians are a good baseball club in a division full of good baseball clubs. I’m not saying they can’t compete. But they have plenty to sort out. And maybe we should let them meet modest expectations before we crown them king.

Late Night Thoughts...

and most of 'em aren't necessarily about the Twins. But they are almost all somewhat related to baseball.

Cliff Lee
Anyone else following what is going on in Cleveland's spring training? Cliff Lee showed up at camp seemingly begging for a long-term deal. Unfortunately, he chose the exact same time to really suck. His ERA this spring is 12.42. He's given up 26 runs and 37 hits in 16.2 innings. Add that performance to the sudden desperation for a long-term deal, and I can't help but wonder if someone might not be completely healthy.

I suspect some crabby-pants might point out to me the eerily similarities between Lee and Scott Baker. But before you do, you should not one important difference. Which is that I'm perfectly capable of living in denial concerning my own team.

The Best a Man Can Get
Gawd, I loved these commercials. Honestly, take 60 seconds and watch it. Was there ever a better montage of the ideal 80s male than this commercial? He gets the girl, hugs his dad, cradles his infant son and strides with the astronauts. I remember getting pumped up every time we would see these, and we saw them a lot because they were a Sunday afternoon staple. It STILL makes me want to shave.



To Morrow is a Week Too Late
The announcement yesterday that Seattle will move Brandon Morrow back from the rotation to the bullpen to be the closer was probably the right move for that franchise, but criminy did it screw me up.

We'll start with the fact that I drafted David Aardsma in my roto draft yesterday afternoon for just $1, because it looked like he would be closer. We'll add that I did not draft Morrow, who will now be a devastating closer for something like $11 for another team. And we can further add that until Friday I owned Morrow for just $8 in the same league. I threw him back because he looked like he was going to be a injured and somewhat iffy starter for Seattle.

And finally, I had a section in this week's Dugout Splinters surrounding Aardsma and those were due to the Twins last night. I heard the news minutes before I was going to send it and had to rewrite the section.

The kicker is that Morrow and the Mariners had decided this a week ago. They just hadn't told anyone.

That's Why I Love this Girl
Last night The Voice of Reason is watching TV and asks "I thought the Twins opener that we were going to was on the 6th."
"It is," I replied.
"I thought that was Monday - the first day of the season?" she queried.
"It is."
"But I just saw something saying my Phils were playing on the 5th," she stated, still baffled.
"Well, that's because the Phils play the season opening game that's on Sunday ni....."
I didn't need to finish. I wasn't two words into that sentence before I saw the light go on, her eyes grow wide, a smile start to grow and a feeling of civic pride practically burst right out of her seams. And then I watched as last October visited yet again.
And finally, the smile opened and spoke in the smallest, happiest voice - one usually only heard from children.
"Yeay."

Tweeting
I'll go into this with a litte more detail soon, but I've just set up a baseball only twitter that I plan to update way too much during the regular season. If you want to witness the uneven and unseemly beginning of it, you can sign up at http://twitter.com/twinsgeek.

Stats and Questions

It's worse than the offseason.

Spring training, I mean. In the offseason, we can at least examine possible signings and trades, but that's all gone in spring training. And we still don't get to really see any baseball, since its rarely televised. (Thankfully, that changes starting tonight.) And for us working stiffs, there isn't really the chance to listen to baseball.

Finally, there's the frustration of knowing that someplace people are watching your team - and that someplace is warm and sunny. It's enough to make a Twins Geek throw back a Drano cocktail.

I count 13 days until I finally get to watch my team up close, and in the meantime I'm reduced to reading spring training stats for anything beyond the newspapers' coverage (which has been pretty good, by the way). I understand just how limited an understanding a few numbers really provide, especially when they're in relation to games that don't count, against players that are still rounding into shape. So rather than try and provide insights, let's use them to generate some questions. We'll start with the stats, and follow up with the question.

5 Walks in 39 AB
1. Is Carlos Gomez going to be less confused at the plate?
There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that he will be. Coaches are saying it, players (including Denard Span) are saying it, and the stats are at least suggesting it. Last year during the regular season, Span didn't get his fifth walk until his 129th at bat. I can think of several reasons why that stat might be invalid, but maybe he's starting to recognize when a breaking pitch is being thrown. For now, let's believe that.

0 Walks in 48 AB
2. What can we expect from Delmon Young?
Young was criticized frequently in Tampa Bay for being a free-swinger, but after watching him for a year, his biggest issue seemed to be trying too hard to make contact. I don't know if the zero walks means he's finding his inner hairy man (which might be a good thing) or if he's given up on plate discipline (bad thing) or if he's just determined to get some swings in. Stay tuned.

7 hitters with more walks than strikeouts
3. Could this be the most disciplined offensive team we've seen under Gardenhire?
Something interesting is going on here, because suddenly each of these guys looks like Joe Mauer. Several are regulars - Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto, Jason Kubel and Mike Redmond. And three more are the guys looking for the last two bench slots - Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris. This might be a fun lineup to watch, even before Mauer comes back.

33 Hits in 17 IP
4. Is something wrong with Scott Baker?
The eight home runs that Baker has given up has received most of the attention, and his unsightly 8.15 ERA has got the rest. But both of those can be explained away by a couple of bad outings with the wind blowing out. But 33 hits in 17 innings? That's consistency, and not in a good way.

22 Baserunners in 8 Innings
5. Will Jose Mijares come north with the team?
How bad has Mijares been? Bad enough that pitching a ninth inning where he gave up one hit (and was saved from another by a diving catch) versus Floriday Marlins scrubs elicited praise from his manager. More telling is that Brian Duensing pitched the inning before Mijares. That's a pretty good sign that he's passed Mijares on the depth chart.

15 strikeouts, 3 walks, 12.2 IP
6. Can we find a way to get RA Dickey on the roster?
I'm as susceptible to knuckleballers as I am to big brown eyes, so I'll admit to not being terribly objective here. But if this guy is twirling the ball around this well in Florida, just imagine what he might be able to do in the climate-controlled dome. Mabye with just a puff of air-conditioning blowing out from behind home plate. Mmmm.....

No, I don't have a way to get him on the roster. In fact, if I had my way, I'd probably carry an extra hitter over the second left-handed reliever. But if I was worried about a member of my starting staff, I might be more inclined to carry a second long reliever on this roster over either of them. Which brings us to...

5 IP
7. Is Nick Blackburn healthy?
OK, he was hurt early in camp. He hasn't been making starts versus National League teams because the Twins don't want him to run the bases, so he's been pitching in minor league games. And so we have a grand total of just five innings so far versus the major leaguers. We're left to assume he's healthy because nobody is saying that he isn't...

We'll get to find out tonight. Because he's the starting pitcher on that televised game. Looks like working stiffs can finally watch a game. And spring training will have a chance to redeem itself.

Debating the 25th man

Geez, when was the last time I talked significantly about the Twins in this space? Too freaking long ago, I can tell you that. And that creates its own dilemna, because there are about fifteen things that need to be addressed, and not enough time to do them all justice. So today I'm resorting to a bunch of bullet points. And not even bullet points, since blogspot handles them so poorly. Let's start with:

Patrick Reusse's Roster Story
Yesterday, Strib columnist Patrick Reusse cranked out a story on the Twins roster decisions that completely ruined a similar entry I was going to put out today - and I couldn't be happier. If there were stories like this, a nuts and bolts baseball story that was still entertaining, in the Strib seven years ago, TwinsGeek.com would never have existed.

And the nuts and bolts that Reusse passed along were significant. He predicted that Drew Butera replaces the injured Joe Mauer. He speculated that the bench includes Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert, but does NOT include Brendan Harris. And he predicted the Twins carry 12 pitchers, making room for Philip Humber and a second lefty, who he predicts will not be Jose Mijares.

There's only one prediction there I think highly questionable, facilitated by a strange trap common for local baseball writers. And that trap is, strangely enough, talking to the manager. One usually sees this gaffe at the end of the season, when reporters publish the manager's predilections as the direction of the organization. Doing so overlooks other factors, like budget, the market, and the fact that it's the general manager who makes those decisions. The manager has input, and often signficant input, but it's the GM's butt on the line.

And while that's not quite as true going into the regular season, it's still true. The GM is still going to have the final decision on who is on that roster, just like the manager is going to have the final say on who is in the lineup. The Twins are very conscious of that division. You'll hear both the GM and manager refer to that clear border throughout the season.

Which is why, barring a trade or (his own) injury, there is no way that Brendan Harris isn't on this roster on Opening Day. Gardy might prefer the slicker fielder, but the Twins aren't going to lose Harris when they can demote Buscher or Tolbert. Nor should they, because there is a message that that baseball gods are trying to drive home to the Twins this spring: depth matters.

Still, let's unpack Gardy's thought process a little. This team only has two players they'll consistently pinch-hit for:

1) Nick Punto (SS) - When Punto is up late in a game, and the team needs a timely hit, Gardenhire will likely be looking at a different strategy facing a left-handed pitcher than a right-handed pitcher. If it's a right-hander, he'll likely bat Buscher (who creamed right-handers last year), and might then burn a middle infielder as a defensive replacement. Tolbert would be the better choice in that situation.

And if they face a left-hander? You could argue that Harris would be the better choice in that case, but Gardenhire will also have the option of using whoever is his fourth outfielder - Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span and Carlos Gomez. Three of those guys are clearly better choices at the plate over Harris, so why not bat one of them and go with the defensive replacement again? Advantage: Tolbert.

2) Drew Butera (C)- If he makes the team, the Twins will likely pinch-hit Redmond for him when the situation presents itself. I suppose versus a tough right-handed pitcher, they could try Buscher and then bring Redmond in as the defensive replacement. That would leave them with the fourth outfielder (Span, Young, Cuddyer or Gomez) and one middle infielder, either Tolbert or Harris. Which brings us back to the Nick Punto options above.

In both of these cases, a change has shifted the balance in Tolbert's favor. That change is Carlos Gomez. More specifically, Carlos Gomez doesn't appear overmatched at the plate this spring. Last year, the fourth outfielder wouldn't have been used to pinch-hit for Nick Punto because the fourth outfielder would have been needed to pinch hit for Gomez. This debate seems to suggest that the Twins aren't convinced they'll need to pinch hit for him as often this year. Which makes Tolbert's glove more valuable than Harris' bat.

But that still doesn't mean Tolbert is going to be on this roster Opening Day. It makes more sense to keep Harris in the fold and stockpile a little depth at Rochester. It also makes sense to see if Gomez's plate approach lasts past March.

What doesn't make sense is spitting out another 750+ words tonight, so let's wrap it up for now. So much for "so much" to cover. We'll get to some other topics tomorrow.

Blogging and Taxes

I’ll start with an apology to the greatest readers a guy could have. This isn’t going to be about baseball, and it isn’t going to be applicable to most of my regular readers. This is for the other bloggers out there. We’ll get back to our irregularly scheduled baseball coverage in our next entry…..

Bloggers, I really wish someone had told me seven years ago what I’m about to tell you.

Last Saturday, at the Twins bloggers gathering, the question was raised about whether or not bloggers can deduct certain costs from their taxes. The answer is ‘yes’, and the further answer is that this can be worth hundreds of dollars. But first, let’s get the disclaimer out of the way….

I am not a tax advisor. You should not mistake what I’m saying for advice from a tax advisor. This is general information only, and for specifics about everything I am about to tell you, you’re going to want to talk to an actual tax advisor. In fact, most of what you’re going to hear here can be gleaned from spending about 45 minutes with a tax advisor. So you might want to do that if you have any questions.

The Strategy
You can deduct expenses related to your business, and if your business is blogging, then you can deduct those expenses. You can do this even if you aren’t actually making any money from blogging, provided it’s a “business”. This deduction applies to both your federal and state taxes.

For example, let’s say you find $2500 of expenses related to your business. (We’ll get to where you are finding those expenses in a second). And say you pay 28% federal tax and 6% state tax which means your paying about 34% in taxes. And say you also make all of $100 in income from ads on your blog and the occasional freelance writing gig.

Your business has lost $2400 this year. You can write that amount off, so you have $2400 less taxable income. Which means you don’t need to pay a 34% tax on that $2400, meaning you pay $816 less in taxes. And, since most of us have taxes already withheld from our paychecks, you’ll get back an extra $816 back in your tax refund. That’s how you make several hundred dollars from blogging.

By the way, the specifics of the above example might not be dead-on accurate. That’s because I’m not a tax advisor. I constructed it as a general example of how reducing the amount of taxes you need to pay can end up getting you extra money. You’ll want to talk to a tax advisor for specifics.

Making Blogging your Business
Blogging is your business if you are in it for a long-term profit. Otherwise, it’s a hobby. If it’s a hobby, you can still deduct some expenses, but you can’t deduct any expenses beyond the income you make. So in the example above, you would only be able to deduct $100 (because that was the only income you had), and you would only make back $34. You want your writing/blogging to be a business.

And, if you’ve been doing this for any length of time, it probably is, even if you haven’t been recognizing that. So it’s time to treat blogging, and the expenses associated with it, like you would if it was a business. So:

• Record your business expenses in a timely manner – This is THE MOST IMPORTANT part, so we’ll cover it more below.


• Have a plan to make a profit long-term. For instance, write up a plan that states how you’re going to build an audience on your blog, how you are going to try and use google ads to raise revenue, use your blog and audience as a marketing tool to draw freelance writing gigs, etc.


• You may want to register your business with your state. If it’s located in the state of MN, you can do so by filling out a form on this web site and paying $35. Name it whatever you like, such as Lastname Publishing or Lastname Media.


• Document instances where you tried to market your business, like times you tried to get paying jobs as a writer, or attempts to get ads on your site. You need to be able to show that you are actually trying to make money.

Again, it’s not important that you end up turning a profit, though if you end up doing so, you’re really in good shape. If you make money two out of seven years, the IRS can’t say you’re a hobby. But even if you lose money for twenty straight years, if you run your business like a business, you can be safe.

How safe? I don’t know. You might want to ask a tax advisor. Which I am not. I’m just trying to pass along some general information here.

Identifying Expenses
A lot of things can be counted as business expenses for your publishing company. The important part is the documentation (which I’ll get to in a minute). For example, as a baseball blogger you could deduct:

• Tickets to a game. And food at the game, for that matter.


• A portion of your cable TV bill. - If you can claim that you wouldn’t have cable TV at all without your blog, then you can write it all off. Or, if you estimate that 50% of your viewing on cable is sports for your baseball blog, you can write off 50% of your monthly cable bill.


• A portion of your hi-speed internet connection bill. - Again, if you can claim that you wouldn’t have hi-speed connection without your blog, then you can write it all off. Or, if you estimate that 75% of your internet use is because of your blog, you can write off 75% of your internet bill.


• Computer/laptop – Are you getting it for your business? If so, it’s mostly deductible.


• Baseball publications – The books you read about baseball.


• Baseball subscriptions – The ESPN Insider or Baseball Prospectus subscription you have.


• Cell phone – Maybe. You could conceivably deduct the portion of it that is related to your blogging. Or, if you also have a land line and you use the cell phone as your business phone, you could do the whole thing.


• Mileage – Going to the game? In 2009, you can deduct $0.55 per mile for the trip you make. In 2008, I think it was $0.505 per mile.


• Parking – For the game


• Entertainment – If you attended the blogger get-together, you can deduct that. Watching a game at a bar with friends and writing about it, or using it for research? You can deduct that, too.


• Web site costs, URL registration costs, etc. - That $35 cost you paid to register your domain name and the other $35 you paid to register your business is tax deductible.

There is one thing you probably don’t want to try and deduct. On Saturday, someone asked if space in your home that is used for the business is deductible. The answer I got is that you probably don’t want to do that. The IRS is pretty sensitive about it, and has really tightened their interpretation of it. For instance, the space must be solely and exclusively used for the business, like a separate room. And even then, there are some factors when you sell your house that you need to consider.

Again, like everything in this story, you’ll want to consult a registered tax advisor for the full story. Because – and I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this - I’m not one. And this is meant as general information.

How Do You Do It?
You need to treat these expenses like true business expenses, and that means you need to track them “cotemporaneously.” That means that you need to document the expense at or about the time it happens. An easy way to do this if you have a daily planner is to reserve a section for documenting these expenses.

For instance, if you dropped $20 at last Saturday’s BW3 gathering, you would turn to 3/14 in your planner and write:“$20.00, BW3 in Roseville, Blogger gathering to discuss future plans and watch USA/Canada.” And if the trip was five miles from your house you might then scribble: $5.50, 10 miles round trip to BW3”. I think you could also instead update a spreadsheet or something with that info (including the date), so you can add up the expenses later. Just remember that it has to happen at or about the time the expense happens.

It doesn’t hurt to have receipts, but the only time you need receipts is when it is an entertainment charge that is $75 or more. So even if you walked away from the BW3 without a receipt, but you know you dropped $20, you can claim it.

How much can you deduct? As much as is legitimate. But you’re likely to receive some extra attention from the IRS if it exceeds a couple of thousand dollars per year.

Finally, when you do your taxes, you’ll want to fill out a Schedule C. You can download/see that form here. Again, if you have any questions, to be safe you should probably contact a tax advisor for assistance. Because I’m still not one. And this is just meant for general information.

Review
Let’s try boiling down this whole thing into a hundred words or so as a summary:

1. If you treat your writing as a business, you can subtract expenses related to that business from your personal income, which lowers your taxes and could get you a bigger refund.


2. To treat your writing as a business, at the very least you need to document those business expenses at or about the time they happen. If the entertainment expense is more than $75, you’ll need a receipt.


3. You can deduct a lot of stuff, including some utilities, entertainment, mileage, research and office equipment. You’ll deduct these on Schedule C, using the supporting documentation you have from #2.


4. I’m not a tax advisor. For specifics, you should talk to one. This is for general information.

The internet has changed writing considerably, and I think it’s generally been for the better. But it still isn’t clear how we’re all going to make a living from it. So many of us are just plugging along, building eyeballs, exercising our writing muscles, and hoping that business model emerges that makes sense. In the meantime, let’s make sure that we’re getting what we can monetarily from it. Hopefully this entry will help with that a little.

Even if it is just general information from a guy who is not a tax advisor.

Respecting the Game

Nuke: How come you don't like me?
Crash: Because you don't respect yourself, which is your problem. But you don't respect the game, and that's my problem.

- Bull Durham

On April 12th, 2002, on the original TwinsGeek.com site, I raved about a new independent program/scorecard that I had just found:

The Little Things

A progressive rock radio station I can listen to while driving to work. A sauna in my health club that is truly hot. Hometown beers that I really like. A body of water within walking distance. I've come to the conclusion that a lot of the things I value the most are little, but are big enough that I can't really control. They're the icing on the cake.

I found a new one yesterday at the Twins game - Gameday, a $1 independent program and scorecard which is being sold across the street from the Metrodome prior to each game. If you like this website, you will LOVE this magazine.

It's exactly the program I want to have at a Twins game and I'll not only be buying one at every game, I wouldn't be surprised if I end up going to a couple of extra games this year because of it.

That year, while I was getting – at most – twenty to thirty hits per day on this site, I wrote to GameDay and volunteered to write for various issues, and I did so on and off again over the next year or two.

Four years later, I received an email from Tom Genrich, one of GameDay’s founders. He asked me if I had any interest in becoming the editor and a partial owner, and we met over a beer at Dan Kelly’s to discuss it. I suspected it would go well. We were both fans of each other’s work.

But as I sat across from Tom, it seemed like the enormous mirror behind the bar was playing tricks. I was staring at myself in that booth. We had both been doing the same thing, starting at the same time, but in different products.

We both had scars we were reluctant to show. We had both had dedicated way too much time to our passion. And we both admitted that the passion was fueled as much by anger and disgust as by love. We were driven by coverage that didn't respect the game.

That's a term that's used in relation to ballplayers, but it's applicable to baseball writers, announcers and promoters, too. Tom and his brothers were fed up with the overpriced, glossy, vapid programs that dominated most ballparks in the 80s and 90s. So were a lot of baseball fans. Independent programs and scorecards had been popping up in all kinds of major league cities at that time.

I remember once paying $5 to get an official magazine because it had a scorecard in the middle. Fully 2/3 of the scorecard area was advertising, meaning I was essentially trying to keep score on an index card. And the kicker was that it was glossy paper, so the pencil that came with the scorecard couldn't write on it. You had to buy a $4 pen. For a baseball fan, it was not unlike an inner circle of hell.

I had been fighting the same beast only with daily coverage. The corporate dailies were determined, or at least satisfied, to cater to the lowest common denominator. I didn't start TwinsGeek.com because I wanted to write this stuff. I started it because I wanted to read this stuff. And now I can, both in the blogosphere, but also in local newspapers, whose coverage is roughly 523% better than it was earlier this decade.

And MLB teams have embraced this movement with their content too. It's no longer solely promotional or blindly positive. When you lead fans out of the shallow end of the pool, they can find all kinds of facets to appreciate. Those are fans who stick with a team when they aren't divisional favorites. And I think that's what led to an agreement between GameDay and the Twins.

Today Tom and I signed a contract with the Minnesota Twins to be the exclusive content provider for their official scorecard. The heart and soul of GameDay - the Dugout Splinters insert - will now be the heart and soul of the Twins Scorecard and updated for each and every home series. And it will be sold for just $1.

I could not be more excited about this, and that excitement is largely based on how impressive the Twins have been while working out details. Twins President Dave St. Peter has shown a real commitment to providing this kind of content, and a high level of patience in dealing with a couple of baseball geeks. I think the three of us - GameDay, the local baseball blogging and writing community, and the Twins - are going to make a great team.

My favorite St. Peter moment was when he was delicately suggesting that maybe we didn't need to pack words into every square quarter-inch of the page. "We could, maybe, add a graphic someplace to break up the text?" Blasphemer. Blasphemer!!!

The change is not without some mixed emotions. While the Dugout Splinters will live on, the GameDay Program will not, or at least not this year, and I'm really going to miss some of those more in-depth stories. It also means we won't be working with some of our partners - our vendors, printers and advertisers. THANKS so much to everyone for the support you've provided GameDay over the last seven years.

But this is just too good an opportunity to pass up. Pairing the Twins organization with the talented local baseball writing community is something we've sought for years, and I hope this is nothing more than just the first step. Because there are a lot of things we can do together. And because the game is worthy of respect.

I Was Promised Superstar

And they were offended in him. But Jesus said unto them, A prophet is not without honour, save in his own country, and in his own house.

- Matthew 13:57

I gotta admit - I love quoting Jesus whenever I'm going to do a story on Joe Mauer. I think I'm going to do it from here on. I can't help it.

On one of my favorite national baseball bulletin boards, a debate broke out about Mauer and his injury. And it was between two of my favorite local contributors. (I'll be paraphrasing a little...)

F: Except for being made of glass and no power, Mauer's a heckuva superstar.

H: Man, the guy is 25 years old and has won 2 batting titles, and people in this town ride him like a rented mule. He's a GREAT defensive catcher, works like a dog, and is a hell of a teammate, according to everything I've heard. If I was him, I'd play out my contract, sign a mega deal, and tell everyone in this town to kiss my ass.

And BTW, the last four years his at bats were 489, 521, 406, and 536. So he was basicly healthy for 3 of those seasons, and played most of the other.

F: I was promised superstar.

H: And you got one...you just don't appreciate it...

And here you have the dueling local views of Joe Mauer wrapped up quite nicely. 'H' reflects on what Mauer has done. While 'F' looks at what he hasn't...

F: He's a nice player...an allstar but I'd have a real hard time spending Yankee/Red Sox money on a guy who might have peaked at 23. I admit it, I expected more.

H: You're buying into that Barreiro "Baby Jesus" crap. The kid is 25, he's one of only 3 catchers in history to win a batting title, and he's won two of them. The other guys who won (Ernie Lombardi who won 1 during the war years, and Bubbles Hargrave) didn't even have the 3.1 per game at bats that's required today. He's had 2 OBP's of over .400 in the last 3 years, and as I already said, he's a great defensive catcher.

You may think that he's already peaked, but you really have nothing to base that on...what did you expect out of the kid anyway?

F: Expect? Improvement, not regression. If he didn't peak in 2006 then he's due for a damn nice season soon because the last two have been clearly a step down from 06'. And now with injury concerns already for 2009 he'll be lucky to not give back the slight improvement from 07'.

Considering I would have chosen Mauer as the MVP last year, I'm a little surprised to see that 'F' is right - Mauer's rate stats from 2008 weren't as good as his rate stats in 2006. But what is really driving the doubters is, of course, the power....

F: Even Baseball Prospectus dropped the hint this year that he's got some work to do to avoid being a lefthanded Jason Kendall. Through age 25 they are basically the same guy with a bat. It's inconclusive as to what direction Mauer goes from here.

H: F, take a look at Kendall's career. Saying a guy was basically the same as him through age 25 is actually not a bad thing at all, in fact it's a pretty awesome thing. Hitting about .320/.400/.475 or so as a catcher is pretty rare. Of course maybe you were expecting Piazza II, but then Mauer can actually catch.

F: Agreed. I think the point though is that expectations of "greatness" might have to be replaced with expectations of very good (plus premature cratering like Kendall the longer he catches). And you're right, I think some of "us" expected Piazza-ish seasons at some point. Another test subject to help prove that darn few players actually develop power just because they project to have it down the road.

It's mostly about the power, or lack therof. As a guy who lost a meal when Mauer failed to hit double-digit home runs last year (and plans to make the same bet this year), I'm on record as believing it will come. Critics will point at a ground ball rate that will make power impossible. I'll point to a plate presence and swing that is so confident that I can't imagine him not being able to do anything he wants to.

But, of course, that's part of the frustration. It sure seems like Mauer should be able to hit for power, leaving critics to wonder if it just isn't a priority. I'll admit, that bothers me, even as a complete Mauer bobo. I'd love to see him try being more aggressive early in the count, even if it might cost a couple points of batting average and maybe another Silver Slugger.

But if the power doesn't come, one doesn't need to look too far into the past to find a superstar who also never developed the requisite power. Tony Gwynn averaged less than seven home runs during his playing career, but finished with enough raw stats and hardware to be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Looking at their career rate stats, Gwynn has a higher batting average, but Mauer gets on base more, and their slugging is almost identical. When Gwynn was 25 he had been mentioned on MVP ballots twice, but so has Mauer, and Mauer has placed higher. At 25, Gwynn had won one Silver Slugger, but Mauer has two. Both are know as classy, pleasant guys who love the game. And Mauer certainly adds a tremendous amount of defensive value that Gwynn never could claim.

Gwynn won six batting titles, compiled 3141 hits, finished one year batting .394, and played his whole career with one team. Those are the key elements that gave him his HOF ticket and superstar status. Mauer may do none of those, but alternately none appear out of reach. Even if nagging injuries eventually force him to stop catching, it's not like he can't play a less crucial defensive position. Like, say, right field, where Gwynn played for twenty years.

But even if he does, I wonder if the debate will subside. I suspect not, or at least not as long as he continues to play in this market. After all, you know what they say about a prophet in his own land....

Baker's Ship Comes In

Reports are that the Twins and Scott Baker have signed a four-year contract with a team option for the fifth year. Congrats Scott, and congrats Twins! I'd speculated on this back in January, but the Twins generally like to wait until spring training to offer long-term deals to their pitchers (but will sign hitters to long-term deals during the offseason). Last year was a great example, where they signed Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer before Twinsfest, but waited until spring training to ink Joe Nathan to guaranteed money.

And in this case, it looks like the Twins got a heck of a deal. Back in January, when writing about signing various players to long-term deals, here is what I wrote about Baker:

Scott Baker
There was plenty of talk last season about Liriano and his service time, but the guy on the roster who was closest to arbitration but missed was Baker. He started the year with 1 year and 128 days of service time, and I’m pretty sure he was on the 25 man roster or DL for the whole year, so he finished with about 2 years and 128 days. “Super 2” arbitration usually kicks in somewhere between 2 years and 130 to 140 days. I wonder just how close he was?

Baker’s salary over the next four years closely mirrors Liriano’s. He isn’t the injury risk (in my mind) that Liriano is, so a lower per year salary with a longer deal makes more sense. Four years, $18 million, and a team option on the fifth year ($12M?) with a $2 million buyout seems fair. Congratulations Scott, your ship has come in.

The Twins and Baker agreed to a deal for roughly $5 million less than I had proposed. That's a nice deal for the Twins. And considering that he's the guy walking away from the bargaining table with $15.25 million, that's a nice deal for Baker, too.

Next up? Hopefully Liriano. Here's what I wrote about him in the same story:

Francisco Liriano
You can argue whether Liriano or Scott Baker should be the top long-term target on the roster. Either way, these two players are better fits for a long-term deal than the Twins have had for several years. They’re both relatively proven, they’re both a year away from big money, and they’re both high-ceiling players.

The only issue that might scare the Twins about Liriano – his health – is exactly the reason a long-term deal is probably so attractive to him. And after just missing arbitration last year, he’s faced with one more year of a team-dictated salary before a giant raise. So now’s the time, for both him and the Twins.

Here, very roughly, is what Liriano and the Twins can expect his salary to be over the next four years if he remains healthy and goes through the arbitration process:

2009 – $0.5M
2010 - $3.5M
2011 - $7.0M
2012 - $11.5M
2013 – free agent
Total - $22.5 million through 2012

Repeat after me: The Twins essentially already have a contract with Liriano. It is for four years and (roughly) $22.5 million. That's going to be the case for all these guys, and it’s the best kind of contract because they can renew it yearly, meaning there is almost no risk to them whatsoever. For them to guarantee all of that money ahead of time, they to need to get something substantial in return.

In this case, that something had better include at least one year of free agency. But the question for both sides is how long will they want to commit? If the Twins trust him to stay healthy, the longer the better. But if he comes down with an elbow injury next June, just how long do the Twins want to be on the hook?

Ideally, their offer would be for something like 3 years and $10M guaranteed, with team options for 2012 and 2013 at $11M and $13M respectively. Throw some guaranteed money buyouts ($1.5M?) for those last two years and Liriano is guaranteed $13M, even if he breaks down on March 15th. Given his arm issues, I would think he (and his agent) would have a hard time walking away from that.

The injury issue is a big one with Liriano, but I have faith that both sides can get creative and get something done. Especially given the market that the Baker deal set.

Phoning It In: Saturday's Blogger Get Together

Hey gang,

I won't be writing tonight. The season finale of Burn Notice is on (and I'm completely addicted to that show) and we should be going out to buy supplies for our new (and first) dog which should arrive tomorrow.

But I thought I should mention the blogger get-together at BW3 in Roseville on Saturday at 1:00. I really hope to be there, though now things are a little up in the air due some bad news we received. Still, odds are I'll be able to make it for a little while, and I'd love to meet old and new friends. Here are the details:

What: Twins Blogger Get Together
Where: Buffalo Wild Wings, in Roseville (Nick had the mapquest link on his site for location)
Time: Game time is 1:00.

Whispering Forgiveness

I haven’t spoken much about the steroid scandal in the seven years of this blog's existence. There’s a reason for that. And even if you’re as sick of the topic as I am, I hope you’ll grant me this day of indulgence.

You see, I want to start something, and today seems like as good a day as any.

The reason you haven’t heard any steroidal musings is because when news has broken, there have already been plenty of voices. Some have been indignant, some leering, some analytical, but they’ve been there, and they’ve been crowded, looking for ears.

That’s the temptation when looking over a mob. You look upon all those wonderful ears, sense the power, and search for the lever. But, of course, when the mob is also talking, that’s also the hardest time to be heard. Especially when you’re whispering.

So now, while the mob is silent, let’s whisper a while. Let’s whisper of forgiveness.

I’ll start by asking for some.

I have privately referred to efforts that ferret out steroid users as a witch hunt, which is as inflammatory a phrase as anything the mob has uttered. I was wrong. After some reflection, I don’t believe that, or at least not in the worst sense of the phrase. The tragedy of the Salem witch trials or McCarthy hearings wasn’t the fervor, it was that so many innocent people were accused, tried and punished. That is the tipping point of a witch hunt – when the zeal drives the mob from prosecuting the guilty to prosecuting the innocent.

So far, in the steroid scandal, that doesn’t appear to have happened, though I suppose Mark McGwire might argue that it has. It doesn’t appear that anyone will bother to prove that he was guilty, but that hasn’t stopped Hall-of-Fame voters from convicting and punishing him. But for the most part, the confessions surrounding steroid abuse seem to be genuine and not coerced. The various steroid investigations don’t appear to be a true witch hunt.

That doesn’t mean some of the uglier ingredients aren’t there. We can start with a mob fueled by envy. Like fans who view ballplayers as overpaid prima donnas. Or media members who suffer for a half-baked quote on a daily basis. Even ex-ballplayers who were born too early to share in this generation's riches.

The strongest indicator for the level of outrage directed at each ballplayer has been the height of their achievement before their confessions. Our volume, our venom and our demand for the goriest of details is in direct correlation with his fame. The bigger they are, the louder they fall.

We can add territorial desire. The commissioner’s office hasn’t been afraid to blame the players union for this entire fiasco. After all, that next Collective Bargaining Agreement is coming up in 2012. There’s no better time to start gathering public opinion real estate than right now.

And finally, there is a symbol of righteousness that justifies all kinds of ugliness, whether it’s a cross, or a flag, or the number 62. We attach ourselves to these symbols, and find ourselves conceding the moral high ground to whoever raises it high in the air. What’s more, it’s how we get the intelligentsia to buy into the discussion, prolonging the issue.

The answer to all of these is the same: forgiveness. Forgive the guilty for their weakness or greed. Forgive the innocent for turning a blind eye. Forgive the caretakers for their ignorance. Forgive the angry for their disillusioned rage.

And we can save a healthy dose of that forgiveness for ourselves, too. The steroid era is a market-driven phenomenon. We’re the ones who demanded more night games, and then looked the other way while ballplayers chomped down greenies, which are as illegal as any steroid. We’re the ones who tuned in to watch the home run races. We’re the ones demanding our team pay top dollar for free agents.

We’re also the ones approving grand juries. Tuning into congressional hearings. Relishing leaked confidential test results. And marching along with the mob, participating in the zeitgeist.

But we’re also the ones who can just as easily start forgiving. Just like we forgave baseball its labor battles, its segregation, and its gambling habit. We can do so without requiring public self-immolation. And we can do so softly, privately, to members of the mob, both when they’re yelling and when they are silent.

I’ll start. I haven’t spoken much about the steroid scandal in the seven years of this blog’s existence. Today seems like as good a day as any to start whispering forgiveness.

Endgame Mystery

We have a mystery. Let's see if we can solve it.

The bullpen's performance last summer fueled plenty of speculation about minor league alternatives. The most common names were relievers from Rochester, or closers from further down the ladder, like Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama. None of them were called.

Instead, when rosters were expanded in September, the Twins suprised us by promoting left-hander Jose Mijares from AA-New Britain. When asked about this, Ron Gardenhire mentioned the evaluations Mijares had drawn from those in the organization:

"Mijares was throwing the living fire out of the ball."

...

"Molitor told me midseason that he'll be in the big leagues before the year's out," Gardenhire said. "[Minor league pitching coordinator] Rick Knapp said that's a very good callup, well-deserved. ... I saw his fastball at 93-94 miles per hour."

But Gardenhire wouldn't see that 93-94 mile per hour "living fire" in a game until almost two weeks later. Mijares didn't appear in his first big league game until 9/13.

It wasn't for lack of need. During those two weeks, the team struggled, and they did so because the bullpen struggled. The Twins were swept by the Blue Jays, lost a series to the Tigers, and took two of three from the Royals. For four of the six losses, the losing pitcher was in the bullpen.

Was Gardenhire trying to protect Mijares? Gardenhire has often been criticized for not trusting young players enough, or protecting young players too much.

If that's the case, Mijares is an extreme case. Because not only didn't Mijares pitch in the six losses, he also didn't pitch in the three wins - and they were all blowout wins. The final scores of the Twins three wins during that stretch was 10-2, 7-1, and 7-2.

Were the Twins protecting Mijares arm? After all, he had broken his elbow and only had been pitching since the middle of the year. If so, they overcame their caution in a hurry. Over the second half of that month he was used ten times.

And that was because those reports Gardenhire had from the organization were dead on. About a week after his first major league game, he was already trying out for the eighth inning role that had eluded the Twins all year. He bridged a 4-1 win for Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan on Sept 21st. He was the first option for the rest of the season. He gave up just one run over his ten appearances.

So that's our mystery. Why wasn't he used earlier? There's no sign that health was the issue. Maybe Gardenhire was protecting him, or didn't trust him, but just how much trust does one need in a 10-2 game? Not using Mijares for the first two weeks of that month could be viewed as the biggest strategical blunder of the season. And it was done by a manager whose bullpen-building skills are often listed as his greatest strength.

Well, it might have something to do with the messages that the Twins have been sending Mijares' way since the offseason began. First, Mijares was cut from his winter ball team and received a very public message from GM Bill Smith. The Strib gives us the details:

But after suffering two playoff losses for Tigres de Aragua, Mijares had a rift with manager Buddy Bailey and walked out on the team, Twins officials confirmed Thursday.

Mijares, 24, returned to the Aragua team but only after skipping multiple games. Bailey didn't use Mijares again and soon cut him from the playoff roster, even though Mijares had posted a 1.40 ERA in 28 regular-season appearances for de Tigres.

...

"If he comes to camp thinking he's a lock for our bullpen, he'll probably be in Rochester after our first cuts," Smith said. "If he pitches the way he did in September, he has a good chance of making our club."

Hmmm, first cuts, huh? That sounds ominous, especially considering the reports that the already large-boned Mijares packed on some extra pounds this offseason.

But first cuts also seemed unlikely after learning that Boof Bonser would be out for the season. Or it would if the the Twins hadn't kept up the pressure. The news that they were talking with Juan Cruz would've created a roster crunch that would jeapordize Mijares spot on the 25 man roster.

Juan Cruz signed with the Royals this weekend, but the manager has also created some of his own drama by pondering entering the season with just an eleven-man pitching staff. With five starting pitchers, that would mean that one of the seven projected bullpen arms would be left behind. And Mijares is the only projected bullpen arm left with options.

Given the messaging that has happened so far this spring, it's likely the Twins started those messages back during the first days of a September call-up. Viewing an attitude or some behavior they didn't like, they sat a vital asset on the bench. Gave him a "time out" to think about how opportunity can be fleeting.

And perhaps we don't have such a mystery after all.

Spring Training Opener

Minnesota Twins baseball is ON THE BLOG!

(over exciting music) Twins Geek Baseball is brought to you by:
- MLB TV - A geek's new addiction.
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And

- The Voice of Reason™ - Widowed spring, summer and fall, since 1994.
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Hello everybody, and welcome to Minnesota Twins Spring Training action! I'm your blogger, Twins Geek, and we're about to bring you eight full months of baseball action. Tonight the Twins will kick off their spring training season against the Boston Red Sox. I'm joined today by my partner, the Geek Chorus.

Thanks Geek. Very glad to be Morgan Mundane to your Steve Cannon.

1st Inning
Chorus, you gotta like what we see of Michael Cuddyer in this first inning. A rocket throw from right field to third base, a nice running catch, and a drawn walk in his first at-bat. Cuddyer has yapped a lot this spring about how hungry he is, and that actually raised some red flags in my mind, because I wondered if he wasn't protesting too much. But he looks determined and focused today.

Plus, we're almost ten minutes into the season and he's not hurt.

2nd Inning
A good innning. I'd like to say the Twins exploded for four hits and three runs but "explode" should be reserved for hits that clear the infield dirt. The Twins were awarded four hits, but the most legitimate was a blooper. It resembled a Friday night softball league.

Except that the softball team usually knows how to slide.

Yeah, Alexi Casilla easily stole second but decided to start sliding approximately 10 inches from the base. And that was the second worst slide of the inning. The worst was by Delmon Young at home, which was awkward enough to be painful.

Paging Dr. Molitor. Dr. Molitor to the third base line, please.

3rd Inning
Brian Buscher gets his second hit of the night, both of them pulled and hit hard down the first base line. I wonder, if the Twins carry 12 pitchers, whether he'll make the roster. After all, Ron Gardenhire loves to have two backup middle infielders on his roster, but he also loves having a left-handed bat on the bench.

I'm switching my stance from earlier in the offseason and saying Buscher is probably screwed. The problem is that if Gardy carries Buscher, he needs a second middle infielder. But if he carries a second middle infielder, he can often live without Buscher.

The guys who are most likely to be hit for in this lineup are Punto, Gomez and Casilla. Assuming Gomez is on the field, then either Span, Cuddyer or Young is on the bench, so he's taken care of.

The other two guys are middle infielders, and if you hit Buscher for one of them, then Brendan Harris needs to field for him. Now you've wasted Harris as a potential pinch hitter, and there is nobody to pinch hit for the other middle infielder. And if you pinch hit Harris, you can't use Buscher for the other middle infielder, because there is nobody left to field for him.

On the other hand, if Tolbert is on the roster, you can hit Harris for a middle infielder and still have Tolbert on the bench. Gardy can then pinch hit one of his outfielders and then bring in Tolbert. Got it?

Um, what's on second? I don't know.

Third base! Anyway, that's why I think Gardenhire is talking about only eleven pitchers. It would allow him a big enough bench to pinch hit three timee every game.

Plus, it would allow the team to send yet another message to Jose Mijares about respecting the game.

You mean beyond waiting until the middle of September to get him into a major league game when they desperately needed an eighth inning set up guy? Wasn't sacrificing a postseason message enough?

Apparently not. Have you seen him this spring? He reportedly looks like he ate Boof.

4th Inning
Joe Nathan gives up the first Red Sox run of the game, on a couple of hits and a passed ball that looked like he crossed up Mike Redmond. Here is the Twins nightmare scenario this year: Nathan gets hurt.

(knock, knock)

He's been answering the bell reliably for six solid years now, and that's feeling like borrrowed time. I have every confidence that Gardenhire and Rick Anderson can piece together a decent 'pen with some of their minor league talent by the middle of the season, because they have that much depth. But I don't see anyone replacing our Shaggy look-a-like.

Ruh-roh!

Fifth Inning
We see our first outing of Luis Ayala. He give up one baserunner, but on an error (I hope they ruled it an error) by Justin Morneau. I'm guessing he makes a good first impression on the Twins staff, becuase I count something like seven strikes and just two balls. Oh, and four batters, too. Those are the kind of statistics they're gonna love.

As opposed to fascist strikeouts.

Right. And I think that's going to have to do it for tonight, as the Twins have started subbing in players that only Seth and Roger recongnize. On behalf of my partner Geek Chorus, thanks for joining us tonight. The final score - the Twins 5 and the Red Sox 2. So long everybody!

Big Rocks

"If you can put a guy up there that has the capabilities of a Gold Glove and also a 25-30 home run guy, you have to take a chance. It's a good chance."
- Ron Gardenhire on signing Joe Crede as the Twins new third baseman.

In productivity seminars, there is a popular demonstration that involves trying to fit a bunch of rocks into a large tube. There are probably a half dozen large rocks, and probably a couple of hundred pebbles, and the challenge is to get them all to fit into the tube. The trick is to make sure you put the big rocks in first. Then you sort of shake it and let the small rocks flow around them. It's impossible otherwise.

Gardenhire's quote sums up the big rocks in this signing. The Twins signed a right-handed slugging third baseman who also happens to be a defensive whiz. The details - Crede's health, his career batting average, his struggles against lefties, and blocking Brian Buscher - are not as pretty. We'll hope that with the big rocks in place and a little shaking, these just end up being inconsequential filler.

It's fun to see the level of optimism this has inspired in Twins fans, and I wonder if it's warranted. So let's take a quick look at the rest of the third basemen in the American League, and see where Crede compares:

Group 1:The Cream of the Crop

Team	Player	OPS	Age
NYY	Alex Rodriguez	965	33
TB	Evan Longoria	874	23

Alex Rodriguez is the current king and Evan Longoria is the heir to the throne, and there really isn't a third baseman who is close. ARod is obviously more accomplished, but if both were granted free agency today, I'm not sure which would end up with the bigger contract.

Of course, that's not gonna happen. They are both controlled through 2017 and 2016 by their respective clubs. The difference? ARod will make $275 million over the life of his deal while Longoria will make $47.5 million. Ouch. You gotta love the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Group 2:Inspiring Envy

Team	Player	OPS	Age
CLE	Jhonny Peralta	804	26
SEA	Adrian Beltre	784	29

This is the reason that the Mark DeRosa trade was so much better for the Indians than it would have been for the Twins. Jhonny Peralta had bulked his way out of being a legitimate shortstop, and his replacement was playing second base. So even though it looked like they needed a third baseman, they really needed a decent second baseman. That much DeRosa can do.

And if you compare Crede's OPS(773), age(30) and defense(awesome) to everyone in this entry, the player he most resembles is Adrian Beltre. That's misleading, because Beltre plays in a monstrous park while Crede played in the White Sox hitter-friendly stadium. Crede is a clear notch below Beltre (even without his health concerns), so let's see if he falls any further down the list.

Group 3: May Still Have a Big Year In Them

Team	Player	OPS	Age
BLT	Melvin Mora	826	36
BOS	Mike Lowell	798	34
TOR	Scott Rolen	780	33
TEX	Michael Young	741	32
OAK	Eric Chavez	688	31

Take a look at the ages on all the guys in this entry for a second. I count just four guys under 30. Lately I've wondered if third basemen can better afford to reach the majors later in their careers, and there seems to be some evidence to support that. That would be good news for fans of Buscher(28) and Danny Valencia(24).

This group has a bunch of guys who are mostly solid, but are clearly on a downward trend. They are useful, but overlooked, and probably one bad contract year from struggling to find a job. I wouldn't take any one of them over Crede, given his extra youth, though it's close.

Group 4: Give It Some Time

Team	Player	OPS	Age
KC	Alex Gordon	783	24
CWS	Josh Fields*	772	26

The last two youngsters on the list. Alex Gordon was as hyped two years ago as Longoria was last year, but has stalled because he hasn't been able to figure out left-handers. Josh Fields looked like the White Sox third baseman of the future in 2007, lost his job to Crede in 2008, and then was hurt when Crede went down. But he's the reason the Sox were so willing to let Crede walk. (BTW, that OPS was in AAA last year.)

If the Twins had not traded for Crede, this group is where Buscher and Brendan Harris would've landed.

Group 5:Not Stereotypical, but an Asset

Team	Player	OPS	Age
LAA	Chone Figgins	685	30

Chone Figgins is an exciting player that was a lot less exciting last year when he was hampered by hamstring and elbow problems. That pitiful OPS doesn't reflect that he's capable of stealing 40-50 bases when healthy, and has enough plate discipline to be a dangerous leadoff hitter. He's not the type of third baseman the Twins need, but he's a great fit for a number of teams.

Group 6: Um......

Team	Player	OPS	Age
DET	Brandon Inge	672	31

I don't think you can totally write off the Tigers this year. After all, they still look quite a bit like the heavily favored team that entered last season. But they have some major question marks, like the bottom of their lineup. Inge is easily the worst starting third baseman in the American League - and he's probably batting seventh in that lineup. Yikes.

So where does Crede land? Let's give him sixth place. He probably belongs in the bottom of that second group, and I'm tempted to also put him behind Alex Gordon just because of his age. That's not great, but it's quite a bit better than the Twins looked 48 hours ago.

Plus, they didn't give up anything to get him, and god knows he's going to be motivated given his one year deal. We'll add those factors to our other big rocks, shake hopefully, and watch to see if they fit together nicely.

iPhone Blogging: More on DYoung

Hey gang, time for a quick experiment with the new iBlogger tool that I've just downloaded. Let's try some short takes with it....

- Seth over at Seth Speaks
got the definitive answer that Delmon Young does not have any options left. Which means that the info about a 'split' contract was essentially meaningless.

- Then, in yesterday's podcast with Seth, Pioneer Press beat writer Phil Miller suggested that the report about the 'split contract' probably came from an agent and not from the ballclub. I suppose it makes sense that an agent would reveal that in a sort of bitter manner, but it still begs the question: why would the Twins even use a split contract? They can't truly believe they'll be able to send him down. I suppose it could be because they want to send a message, but without any big stick behind that vague threat, the message could just as easily be interpreted as "We are angry but essentially impotent."

-Speaking of messages, on Seth's podcast last night Miller talked about the post-it note pad full of messages that the Twins have delivered Young's way this offseason, including at Twins Fest last month.

- Finally, I made an appearance on the podcast too last night. Seth pitted me against Nick Nelson in a battle royale over Joe Crede and the outfielder glut. Nick won, but I fought valiantly, like an older but much more handsome William Wallace. Oh, except I didn't impregnate his daughter-in-law, which would have been a nice touch.

Ok, I've officially started iBabbling, so let's wrap this up. Wish me luck. I'm about to try posting this......

Geek Confusion: Delmon Young's 'Split' Contract

Someone help a poor time-deprived blogger out here.....

Why the hell does it matter that the Twins offered Delmon Young a 'Split' contract?

A 'split' contract, for those who are wondering, is a contract that specifies the amount of money that a player makes in the majors and a different amount of money that they make in the minors. Publicizing the split aspect of this contract is in line with other rumors that the Twins have floated this offseason that seem intended to motivate Young, like him being traded, or him sitting on the bench.

But the real question, which I'm shocked that nobody is asking, is "Can they send Young to the minors?" Because previously, the answer seemed to be "Not unless they are incredibly stupid."

And usually, the Twins aren't. So what's going on?

Young, I thought, signed a major league contract back in 2003, which meant he was on the major league roster. So his three "options" were used by Tampa Bay in 2004, 2005, and 2006. To try to send him down would require him to clear waivers, which would NEVER happen.

If they can send him to Rochester, then we have a legitmately gripping story for spring training. Both he and Carlos Gomez seemingly could use some Triple-A seasoning, at least given the Twins philosophical leanings. If Young is protected by his lack of options, than Gomez is the leading candidate to miss out on a starting spot this spring. But if Young is also eligible to be demoted, then HE becomes the leading candidate.

Has anyone figured this situation out and can let a poor Twins Geek in on the secret?