Shivver

It doesn't take much imagination - just enough.

This weekend I came across this little tidbit from Ken Rosenthal when I felt shivers run up my spine. I can even pinpoint the three words that had that chilling effect...

The Pirates, talking about shortstop Jack Wilson with several clubs, are trying to acquire catcher Matt Treanor from the Marlins, then spin both players to the Tigers, according to one major-league source.

Listen - there is no question that the Twins are one of those clubs. Wilson personifies the type of shortstop the Twins have tried to plug into their infield since the departure of Christian Guzman. He's supposedly a wonderful fielder, abysmal hitter and overrated player. The same unholy mold that stamped out Juan Castro and Adam Everett begat Jack Wilson.

So there is no question he is on the top of Ron Gardenhire's wish list this Christmas. After all, who wouldn't want a 30-year-old shortstop with decreasing range and an OPS that was 100 points lower than Nick Punto posted last year? Oh, and whichever team acquires him will need to pay him $6.5 million next year, too. After all, he's an all-star. Sigh.

The question is what will the Twins be willing to give up for him. The Pirates keep claiming they only want "fair value", but the offers of a bucket of warm spit have not been accepted, so they're lying about that. But can we trust the Twins to be reasonable about this? Can anyone else see them trading Nick Blackburn for him? Or Anthony Swarzak? Or Brian Duensing?

Crazy talk? Well, consider that the Twins signed up Everett before he had been on the market even 24 hours. I barely had time to mock the possibility of the Twins chasing him before he signed. I don't want to be pessimistic, but I'd be lying if I said this realization didn't further dampen a cold winter weekend in Minnesota.

Simple Sanity Check

I blame myself for that whole David Ortiz thing.

Or at least, I don't blame Terry Ryan. That's because, just before they refused to offer him arbitration, I did a simple 'Sanity Check' of the Twins roster - and promptly ignored it. I had spit out the numbers for 2002 and they looked something like this:

See Ortiz there? 4th on the team in OPS, and third among the everyday starters? I wrote something about how I was shocked to find him that high, because he hadn't had a very good season. And so I ignored the simple evidence, instead writing about how he hadn't hit left-handers, and his injuries, and his positional inflexibility, blah, blah, blah.

The lesson? Sanity checks are only valuable if you're sane. In the hope of reversing my track record, let's do one for the 2008 Twins. Here are the numbers:



OK, let's run through them for the sanity check....

You might have guessed that Jason Kubel was going to be third on that list, but it's actually Denard Span. And just look'it that OBP. Holy cow. So long as he maintains that, he's got enought offense for a corner outfield spot. But those numbers would be all-star material in center field.

There is quite a gap between the first four hitters and the fifth. But that person is Delmon Young, and he wass the best right-handed hitter on this team last year, and it's not particularly close. Oh, and he's 23 years old. You might want to consider that before you start suggesting trade scenarios.

Brian Buscher and Brandon Harris are also in this next group, and that's their overall numbers, not their platoon numbers. I'm feeling more and more optimistic about patching together something at third base next year. Again, the priority is adding a big right-handed bat, not necessarily a third baseman.

Nick Punto outhit Alexi Casilla. Just slightly, but across the board. My perception (and expectations) for Casilla were far inflated from his actual performance. Some of his decline is tied to his injury, hopefully. And he's just 24, so there should be some growth. But he wasn't especially good, and a team needs more offense than that out of second base.

Michael Cuddyer had a terrible year and I'm choosing to chalk that up to injuries.

Randy Ruiz didn't get much opportunity to show much. His value was supposed to be in his ability to hit for power, and he didn't, but that often takes some time. Still, he wasn't an offensive asset. If you're looking for something encouraging about him, you can focus on a pretty nice OBP.
Mike Redmond was not good. So long as his defense stays pretty strong, he's acceptable as a backup catcher. But all of his rate stats declined, and you would expect that, seeing as he's 37. I love him as a ballplayer, but we need to be careful about romanticizing his offensive contributions.

And finally, we get to Carlos Gomez, who was awful with the bat. He was awful compared to other Twins, and he was awful compared to other center fielders. The only improvement he showed was in September, and that was largely because he had four extra hits that month, albeit a couple of them for extra bases.

Which isn't to say that I'm not excited about his future. He's just 22 years old, he plays outstanding defense in center field, and he has the speed/power combination that make superstars. But all the defense in the world doesn't make up for the 160 points of OPS he gave up to Span last year. He wasn't an asset. And with 59K vs 13 BB over the second half of this year, there is very little to suggest that he is going to be an asset next year.

There is no 'glut' of outfielders for the Twins for 2009. Gomez is a raw, incredibly promising youngster who is not ready for the majors. Not only does his major league career suggest as much, so does his minor league career. The place for a raw, incredibly promising youngster who is not ready for the majors is AAA-Rochester, where they are perfectly capapble of feeding him a steady diet of offspeed pitches that are outside and low.

It's a harsh conclusion, but one the sanity check supports. This time, I'll listen to it.

Seth's Book!

Now is the time to pre-order one of Seth's new books. You have until tomorrow (Thursday). I'm very excited to see this and have already ordered one. Frankly, you are incredibly lucky to have this kind of in-depth reference tool about the Twins minor leagues available to you. It just doesn't happen for other teams. I'm very excited to see how it turns out.

From the Archives: The Evil of Familiarity

With all the rumors going around about the Twins and Casey Blake, I was wondering if I had written about him in his first stint with the Twins. I had. I count this as the 55th post I ever wrote, back on March 7th of 2002. It's even before I was referring to my wife as The Voice of Reason. If I had to estimate (and I think I do, because I think I've lost all stats from the old site) it was probably read by a dozen people, at most. So I'm hoping it's new to you. Providing the Twins don't sign Blake today, I'll be back tomorrow with a 'Sanity Check' story tomorrow. Hope to see you then.

The Evil of Familiarity 03/07/2002

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The story of Twins camp is Koskie's wrist. The good news is we don't know that it's broken. The bad news is that we don't know that it isn't. The MRI showed nothing. The CT scan was inconclusive. Today he sees a hand specialist.

"Replacements, if Koskie's wrist is broken, begin with Denny Hocking, the veteran utility player. Jay Canizaro, who missed all last season because of a torn right anterior cruciate knee ligament, is healthy and can play third base, too. Rookie Michael Cuddyer has played third base in the minors but has struggled with his throwing accuracy. That's why he's trying to make the team as an outfielder. Casey Blake is a natural third baseman but was a long shot to make the team before the injury."

Star-Tribune

I was a little dissappointed when the first names I started to see a couple days ago were the bevy of utility guys the Twins have in camp. One of the sins which a lot of organizations commit is choosing the lesser of two players, simply because they are the known commodity. People do it all the time, but an organization needs to rise above it. I'll give you an example:

Last week my wife got a speeding ticket. She hasn't received a speeding ticket in seven years. She especially never gets speeding tickets in this particular area because she knows the police watch closely and she's usually the driver pissing off the other drivers by going too damn slow. But last week she was in a hurry to pick up the kids and ended up going 40-something in a 30 MPH zone and fell into the speed trap. We know we have two options:

1) Pay the ticket. It's easy but it costs us $105. And even worse, it would be reported to our car insurance which would cost us much more.

2) Arrange a 'continuance'. Here we get a bit hazy. We know we have to arrange a court date and meet with the prosecutor and ask for a continuance. If so, we still have to pay the $105, but it doesn't get reported to our insurance. But we don't really have the details on this.

One option is clearly better than the other. But it has taken all my will to even try to find out any information about the second option. I don't want to do it. She doesn't want to do it. It's a little bit scary, and we're not really sure how much it buys us and we don't know if it's worth it or what the risks are if we screw it up.

Here are the Twins main options if they get caught speeding (according to the Wilton projections for 2002 in Baseball Prospectus 2002):

Clearly, the Twins should try this continuance thing. He has more upside (three years younger) and should produce better offensively. By the way, Casey Blake (continuance) also plays league average defense at third base. In fact, the numbers that BP2002 projects indicate he would be a league average third baseman all the way around, both offensively and defensively. And if Blake does that well, he becomes another 'chit' that Terry Ryan might be able to move to a different major league team when Koskie comes back.

On the other hand, Denny Hocking (the damn ticket) is more familiar, but will probably provide less offense, similar defense, and has no upside. Also, playing him just creates another utility infielder spot on the bench for Canizaro or Abbott, who'll have almost no value when Koskie comes back. But Blake also only has 92 at-bats in the majors, and Hocking, Canizaro and Abbott are all more familiar. And unless Blake tears it up in spring training, one of them will probably get the job by default.

To Ron Gardenhire's credit, he looks like he's going to at least give Blake (and maybe even Michael "Stay Awake Behind First Base" Cuddyer) a chance to win the spot:

"Everybody is going to play third [for now]," Gardenhire said. "Anyone and everyone I can find will play there. We hope for the best for Kosk and we will leave it at that."

Translation: "God, I hope that cop didn't have his radar on me."

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Comments Friday

Time for a Phone-It-In Friday Comments story. Today’s replies are brought to you by America’s Dishwasher Retailers, who invite you to feel the frustration of paying and extra $150 to get the appliance delivered and installed. Oh, and of paying and extra $80 to have a ‘stainless steel’ (i.e. silver) finish instead of black or white. Enjoy!

On AFL Arms

Anonymous said...
Glad to have you back, John. Congrats to you and TVOR on the Phillies' championship

Thanks. The Twins Geek Observatory was full of wine and revelry that night, but I think my favorite part was the next morning. That’s when I used this wonderful internet thing to tune into 610 WIP, Philly’s sports station, and listened to their morning show. It was every bit as cathartic as I hoped it would be. Two stories from it:

1. Pennsylvania Governor (and former Mayor of Philadelphia) Ed Rendell called in. Radio host Angelo Cataldi asked him about a statement from the Philly school district which said that "Students are expected to report to school tomorrow for school like any other day" (and miss the parade at 12:00) and whether he supported that. Rendell said as a lawyer he would parse that sentence very carefully. He noted that the district said the students are to report - it didn't say that they were expected to stay. I love that their governor basically told the kids to cut school.

2. And then, later, Cataldi, was talking to a Phils fan living in Tampa Bay. The fan was pumped because he was going to have the opportunity to taunt a Tampa Bay sports radio talk show host later that day. And Cataldi, in true Philly fashion, completely shared his joy. I’m paraphrasing Cataldi’s quote, but it went something like this:

"Isn't it great that amidst all this joy, we can still have a little venom? You know what I was most proud of? Booing Selig. How great is it that in the midst of the celebration, we could take a little break and let Selig know what we thought of him? Only in Philly."

I love that city.


TT said...
I think it was clear these guys aren't ready to be immediate help. If the Twins thought they were close, they would have been called up last fall along with Mijares.

None of them had just one bad outing, but Lahey gave up 5 hits and his only run in his first two games. He only gave up 4 hits over the remainder of the season. He looks like he is closest to being ready. Which shouldn't surprise anyone since he was the one at AAA last year. Often it is a lot more informative to watch how the Twins move players rather than looking at their stats.

Of course, Delaney is every college player's fantasy. A guy who didn't even get drafted who looks like he might play in the major leagues.

I think I’m pretty good at giving the Twins the benefit of the doubt, but it will be a long, long time before I get a “They must know best!” rubber stamp made. And frankly, I’m STILL of the opinion that these guys should have been given some chance to help out the bullpen, just as I’m of the opinion that the Gardy should have used Mijares at least once in the 12 days he was on the roster at the beginning of September. BTW, during those 12 games, the Twins lost six games, and four of them were lost by the bullpen.

(Sidebar – I’m becoming more and more convinced that the biggest danger to the Twins bullpen isn’t that they won’t get some help. It’s that they won’t find room for guys that could help because of the existing guys that are already there. Seriously. Nathan, Mijares, Guerrier, Crain, Breslow and Bonser are all going to be back. That’s six guys. Barring an injury, how is Gardy going to make room in that group for a stud in AAA. It won’t happen before mid-June, right? Right?)

On the other hand, to prove your point that I know very little about these guys, I wasn’t aware that Delaney wasn’t drafted. I was also surprised about something I heard on Seth’s excellent podcast (which I’ve been listening to religously). A week-and-a-half ago he had the voice of the New Britain Rock Cats on, and he talked about how Delaney was very good but not really eye-opening. That’s bizarre for a guy that struck out a guy per inning, posted a 1.05 ERA, and had a WHIP of .79.

You notice guys like that. So maybe there is something deceptive about Delaney that makes him more effective than we think he would be.

Nick N. said...
Also, it's worth noting that Jose Mijares is doing very well in the Venezuelan Winter League. In eight appearances for the Tigres de Aragua, he has posted a 0.00 ERA and 10/2 K/BB ratio with five hits allowed over 7 2/3 innings. Lahey, Delaney and Slama are all candidates to help the team at some point next year, but Mijares is the guy who could be there from the very start.

I am excited about Mijares. Those are exactly the kind of stats I thought I’d see from Slama and Delaney. I’m not giving up on them by any means. I just expected (and hoped) for more.

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On Bad Things Come in Threes

Anonymous said...
Personally, I consider our diminished chances of trading for Garrett Atkins GOOD news. This guy is headed downhill fast (check his 2007 and 2008 hitting lines), will be 29 next season, and will be overpaid for his production. I say platoon Buscher and Harris at third and use our limited trading chips to acquire Hardy or Escobar.

Aaron Gleeman had a nice analysis on this which I have yet to really dive into, but in general, I agree with the sentiment. Of the third basemen who are out there, the one that interests me the least is Atkins. Beltre is a clear upgrade. Blake would be fine, because all he costs is money. And even Kouzmanoff is a little intriguing because he would be leaving cavernous Petco Park.

Jack Ungerleider said...
What if there isn't a big trade or free agent signing? What if the money is plowed back into the organization in the form of multiyear deals for the guys who deserve them? How much gnashing of teeth and rending of Bill Smith's garments will there be?

I'd rather roll the dice with the group we have then pay too much (either in salary or traded players) for someone who might be great but might not.

The way multi-year deals are usually structured, it doesn’t provide more money up front. The benefit for the player isn’t getting money now – it’s getting guaranteed money later. Last year’s Morneau and Cuddyer deals were the exception with good sized signing bonuses up front. And really, what does that accomplish? Spending $10M to tie up Morneau for 5 years just means saving $2 million each of the next five years. Is that really going to make a difference?

I’m not saying the money needs to be just thrown away. And I’m all for doing things like plowing money into signing bonuses for the draft. But $30M is a LOT of money. They can do all that and still get a big name. The trick is getting the big name that doesn’t require a long-term deal.

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On I Don't Know is on Third

BeefMaster said...
One quibble with your chart - three of the four players the Twins are pursuing (everyone but Blake) are in extreme hitter's or pitcher's parks, making total OPS a bit of a misleading stat to use to compare them. Their road OPSes are a different story:

Atkins: .661
Beltre: .862
Kouzmanoff: .803

That puts Cuddyer's worst-case as a bit better than Atkins last year, his moderate projections right around Kouzmanoff, and his best case about even with Beltre.

Hey! It’s BeefMaster! My favorite moniker!

I tried to find a place to mention the extreme parks these guys almost all played in, but couldn’t figure a way without adding a very dry paragraph to the story. I like your method of looking at road stats. I’d rank them exactly the same way you do.

Anonymous said...
The question I have is why he hasn't been the starter at 2B. In 2004, he played 327.1 innings there, and his partial deafness would likely affect him less there. The only issue then is if Casilla can transition to short.

Honestly, it’s like you’re trying to bait me. I wrote in support of this roughly a dozen time three years ago. Are you trying to make me lose all credibility? Because I’ll do it. I swear, I’ll do it!


Jack Ungerleider said...
The Twins and Mets share a similar problem when it comes to the third base position. When I followed the Mets it seemed like they were always looking for a third baseman. During the NL Pennant run of 1973 they relied on Wayne Garrett. Good with the glove okay with the stick. (Sort of like Harris on the Twins.) They also played some once and future outfielders at the position. The team finally found an answer in converted outfielder Howard Johnson, who had started his career as an infielder then moved to the outfield, then back. (Sound familiar.) He was a mainstay of the Mid 80s success.

So John, and you other stat hounds, I'd love to see a career arc comparison of Cuddy to HoJo. Maybe the confidence gained as a successful right fielder will translate to confidence at third base.

Jack, you’re killing me. It’s 11:30, The Voice of Reason has been waiting patiently in bed for me for an hour, we’re approaching 2000 words, and you want me to compare Howard Johnson to Michael Cuddyer. Are you trying to make me lose my marriage? Because I’ll do it. I swear, I’ll do it!

Anonymous said...
"Right on". We keep reading about how bad Cuddyer is with the glove and have players fill the position who are not any better. Worse yet, we want to trade for players that might not even be as good. A quick thought: Span covered so much more ground and made such a difference that even hacks could visually notice either on tv or in person the massive improvement in RF. Mistakes in the infield are a base, poor coverage and mistakes in the outfield are runs.

Can Cuddyer play 3B as well as Beltre? No, but he is on our team now and is a popular player by all accounts. No more Batista or Lamb.

I don’t have a problem with Cuddy’s defense in right field, and I feel like Span’s defense is wasted there. If they insist on keeping Span in a corner outfield spot, he should be switching with Young to get Delmon back to right field and utlize Span’s range in the Metrodome’s enormous left outfield.

(And I am not proposing that at all. There is a simple and obvious answer to the perceived problem of the ”glut” of outfielders that doesn’t involve moving Cuddyer, and I think I’ll be writing about that early next week. So join me then. Have a great weekend.)

I Don't Know is on Third

Let's start by admitting that I have no credibility on this subject whatsoever. And that's saying something, because I'm going to broach a topic which, all by itself, seems to lack any credibility. And a subject which I have resisted writing about for almost three years, in part because I prattled endlessly about it before that.

And I did that because when one talks about this topic, people assume you are crazy. So, in the immortal words of our fellow Minnesotan (and I assume, Twins fan) Prince, let's go crazy. In fact, let's get nuts. If you are so incline, we could even look 4 the purple banana 'til they put us in the truck.

(God help me - that song is in my head now. Along with visions of a Russian discotech and a LOT of vodka shots. I love tangents, but even I'm not ready for that story just yet. Let's get back to the main topic. We've put it off long enough...)

So why the hell aren't we more seriously considering playing Michael Cuddyer at third base?

It's not like he just dabbled there. In 2005, the year before he broke though, he was the starting third baseman, leading the team in at-bats at the hot corner. The year before, it was the position where he had the most at-bats, too, filling in for the injure Koskie. So how is this never considered and option?

(And do we remember who replaced Cuddyer when he was moved away from third base? Would you believe Tony Effin Batista?)

Now this is the point in these statistical blogs where the writer puts up a table comparing Cuddyer to the rest of the third baseman in the major leagues. The problem with such a table is the same problem we have proposing anything about Cuddyer right now - we have no idea what kind of player he is. And I think we can safely say that has been true for the last seven years.

(Here's a nice little sidebar Twins debate you can have at the bar next time: Has any Twin defied expectations, both positive and negative, more consistently than Cuddyer?

He came in as a rookie and looked like a key playoff addition. But he had a mostly negative impact, primarily because of his fielding. Then, as we waited for him to blossom, he was either terrible or hurt until he was benched. Then, once he was benched, he became a stud corner outfielder. Then he signed a guaranteed deal - and had a lost season.

Maybe David Ortiz could rival that, but he wasn't around as long as Cuddyer. Todd Walker? No, he was enigmatic enough, but it seems like he had at least a couple of seasons where he did mostly what we thought he would. Ron Davis? Maybe, because he was either much better or worse than you thought he would be. Shane Mack was much better than we expected and then suddenly much worse, so he might make the top 5.

The one name who I think can give Cuddy a run for his money is Latroy Hawkins. He was alternately terrible or wonderful, but never when you thought he would be.)

So let's get around that little inconsistency thing by adding a whole bunch of Cuddyer's seasons to the table, along with how he hit when he played third base and last year's PECOTA projection for 2009. And finally, we'll highlight the other third baseman that the Twins are reportedly consdering trying to acquire. It's on the left there.

At his best, Cuddyer would be an all-star quality offensive producer at third base. At his worst, he's still put up numbers better than Kouzmanoff (and he's just two years older than Kouzmanoff, too.) And in the middle, he's the offensive equal, if not better, than most of the guys the Twins are reportedly pursuing. Finally, it's worth noting that he didn't put up numbers much different at 3B than he did at his other positions in 2004 and 2005.

Now, I'm talking offense, obviously. His defense was not exceptional, and maybe a little below passable. But before we start being too critical, let's not forget who the Twins have started at third base since Cuddy gave up the job. Tony Batista, Brian Buscher, Brendon Harris and Mike Lamb aren't going to make anyone forget about Brooks Robinson.

This isn't the sort of move that a team forces upon a team leader like Cuddyer. But it is the kind of move that a team leader, a true team leader, might volunteer for if he thinks it could help the team. Not publicly, but maybe quietly, in the fall, so he can get a sense of whether he needs to put in some time during the offseason.

And if that move garners some public adulation down the road, or a nicer contract in 2011 from teams desperate for a decent third baseman, all the better for the unselfish player. After all, he was the one who volunteered for something a little crazy. He's the one who got nuts. Because he thought he better live now before the grim reaper came knocking on his door.

So go on Cuddy. Are you gonna let the elevator bring you down?

And if it also happens to help some of us regain some lost credibility, all the better.

Bad Things Come in Threes

Usually, I have a fairly sunny disposition. I tend to look on the bright side, or at least downplay the downside of news. But not today. Maybe it's the weather, or the fact that I just got back from Disney World, or the harsh reality of rejoining the real world. Whatever is was, I'm looking at three fairly big stories in the world of MLB, and I can't help but think that none of them are good news for our hometown nine.


1. Pat Neshek is getting an MRI
Commence gnashing of teeth and rending of garments. It's becoming a basic tennant of my baseball philosophy that very successful relievers are undervalued by both traditionalists and statisticians, but this isn't the time to vent over that. Still, it's fair to say that the best wishes I can send to Neshek aren't purely magnanimous - losing him would hurt my favorit team a lot.

The temptation is to say that Neshek should've just had Tommy John surgery back in May when this thing was diagnosed. In fact, there is no shortage of people who have been saying that since May. But it should be really, really hard to be too critical of pursuing a less invasive procedure over a surgical one. People don't always bounce back from TJ surgery, and the percentage that don't regain their full effectiveness is higher than most fans want to admit. And in the case of a side-armer, exhaustng other options is probably especially prudent.

Good luck Pat.

2. Rockies trade Matt Holliday
Rumor had it that the Rockies wanted to trade Holliday away before considering trading 3B Garret Atkins, in whom the Twins have interest. So that's the good news. But it's offset by a pair of bad news.

First, they received a pretty good haul for Holliday, which sets the bar a little high. Atkins isn't as valuable as Holliday, but also isn't too terribly different. The Rockies got back Carlos Gonzalez, a center fielder with enormous upside whose first exposure to the majors resulted in stats that are reminiscent of Carlos Gomez. They also received starting pitcher Greg Smith, who posted a 4.15 ERA (albeit with a 7-16 record) last year. He profiles as a decent #3 pitcher who relies more on control than power, similar to Nick Blackburn.

And on top of all that, they got Huston Street, the A's closer who struggled last year but still seems like a capable reliever. That's a lot more than the Twins will (or should) consider for acquring just about any third baseman, let alone Garret Atkins.

And not only did they get a lot, but they got exactly what the Twins could most likely offer. They picked up a center fielder, a starting pitcher, and they may have even replaced their departing closer. The Rockies might still trade Atkins, but it no longer appears that they need to trade Atkins. For the Twins, that's unfortunate.

3. The Marlins dump some more salary.
The Marlins traded a couple of players to the Nationals for some minor leaguers - blah, blah, blah. I should probably detail the players the Marlins lost and the prospects they got back, but the truth is I (and most Twins fans) shouldn't really care. What I (and most Twins fans) should care about is the name that is missing from the transaction wire.

That name is "Dan Uggla", who plays second base for the Marlins, is right-handed, has hit 90 homeruns in his three-year career, and is about to get very expensive. So expensive that there were plenty of rumors that the Marlins might need to trade him this season if they couldn't dump enough salary. Those are rumors which the Marlins denied, saying that they would trade some other names.

This trade is their second salary dumping trade this offseason that involved some of those other names. It appears they are doing exactly what they said they were going to do, and that includes keeping Uggla. And at the very least, like the Rockies, it appears they certainly don't need to make a trade.

So there we have it. Three downers to start out your week. Kinda like the rain, sleet and cold that a good chunk of our readers are experiencing this morning too. Let's hope for sunnier days ahead.

AFL Arms

OK - and we're back. Apparently a Phillies World Series victory is enough to make me black out for a week and a half. We'll try and get back up and running hear slowly as we start to digest some of the lastest offseason news. But first, I wanted to check in on some of our boys in Arizona.....

The Twins biggest problem last year was their bullpen, and you would think it would be the most talked about offseason topic. It hasn't been, and there are some very good and bad reasons for that.
The worst is that it's a hard topic. Even those of us who follow baseball obsessively can only name a few middle relief free agents, and judging which of those are truly desirable (as opposed to who had the best stats) is even more guesswork. It's also hard to make it interesting to baseball fans, let alone the casual Minnesota sports fan.

A better reason was that the Twins should return a fair amount of the arms they had available last year. Joe Nathan and Jesse Crain are under contract, Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares are completely under the Twins control, and the Twins can (and probably will) keep Matt Guerrier if they offer him arbitration. Add the recovering Pat Neshek to that group and you have your six guys. But that's not terribly encouraging to the Twins fans who saw that group lose so many games last year.

But there was another good reason, too, and that's why I was interested in what is going on in Arizona. The Twins looked towards the end of last year like they had some bullpen reinforcements coming up through the minors, and they sent several of them to play in the Arizona Fall League this year.

The AFL is an interesting league. It's often thought of as being almost a "4A" league, but that isn't really true - the level of play in AAA is higher than it is in the AFL. But many highly touted prospects are featured there, so the talent level is high, if not the level of play. It's also heavy on offense, since teams are more likely to extend the season of some of the better hitting prospects while playing it cautious with some of their pitching prospects. It's almost an ideal situation for a team to get a sense if some of their prospective bullpen arms are ready to face a higher level.

Unfortunately for the Twins, there hasn't been much evidence that they are. The Twins sent three relievers to pitch for the Phoenix Devil Dogs, one from each of their three highest minor league levels. And none of them are posting particularly good numbers.

Tim Lahey - Lahey spent most of last year in AAA-Rochester, though he saw a little time on other team's major league rosters (but not any games) as a Rule 5 draft pick. He's a converted catcher that supposedly throws in the 90s and gets a lot of ground balls. Early with Rochester he was lights out, but he ended up having a pretty mediocre year.

In the AFL, the good news is that this right-hander has just a 1.04 ERA. That bad news is that the rest of his numbers are pretty underwhelming, and with just 8.2 inning pitched, those are the ones you are more likey to trust. The really bad news is that he's doing the best of the Twins trio of bullpen arms.

Rob Delaney - Delaney ended the year in AA-New Britain after a midseason promotion, and there were a fair amount of Twins fans hoping he would be promoted even higher than that. He looked like the best bullpen arm of this bunch, combining a dominant stikeout rate (83K in 81 IP) with solid control (just 16 walks).

But his AFL numbers are fairly ugly. The ugliest is the 8.10 ERA, but really, the underlying numbers don't look to good either - 9 hits in 6.2 IP with 6 K and 3 BB. On the other hand, he's been in 7 games and had 5 holds, so maybe this is just a couple of bad outings. Still, it's not going to be the kind of performance to ease worried minds in the front office.

Anthony Slama - Slama ended up being the closer in High A-Fort Myers after Delaney left, and the best adjective I heard to describe his numbers was "video-game stats". Consider: 71 innings pitched, 110 strikeouts, a 1.01 ERA and 0 home runs. That's damn close to a perfect season. At any level.

His AFL season hasn't been as perfect. It's only 6.1 IP, but he's given up 8 hits, only struck out 6, walked four and has a 1.89 WHIP (Walk + Hits/Innings Pitched). His WHIP in Fort Myers was half of that - .94. Again, this isn't the end of the world, but it's not going to convince decision makers that one of these guys will be laying in the weeks, ready to contribute.

All of which likely means that the Twins are going to be in the market for some relief help this offseason, and that they probably should be. In fact, it should probably be their top priority. Which likely means I'm going to need to start researching a hard topic - free agent middle relievers.

Sigh. Sounds like I picked the wrong week to stop blacking out.

Microscopic Distortion

You gotta love the playoffs. It's a cliche that everything is magnified, and in this case, the cliche fails to do reality justice. It's not that these games are under a magnifying glass - they're under an electron microscope, where houseflies are morphed into multi-eyed dragons.

Two nights ago, following a Phillies loss in Game 2, all the talk was about how the middle of the Phillies order wasn't producing, and how the Phillies might be doomed because of it. Twinsty-four hours, two Utley/Howard hits (albeit back-to-back home runs), and a Phils win later, the story was about how the middle of the Rays order wasn't producing, and how the Rays might be dommed because of it. And suddenly the Rays were in a "must-win" game. But, if the Phils would've lost Game 3 after blowing a 4-1 lead, Game 4 would've been their must-win game.

Of course, after a 10-2 loss to the Phils in last night's Game 4, the Rays really are facing a must-win game, and they will for every game the rest of their season. But it's worth noting what the perception will be if the Phils don't win Monday night's game. Games 6 and 7 would both be on the road with pitching match-ups that would likely make the Phils into underdogs. Today's elation would turn into tomorrow's agony.

Tonight's game might not be a must-win for Philly, but it's close. In reality they all are. Such is the power of the microscope.

Patience and Power
Friday I chastised the Phils for playing bad baseball, in particular for their inability to drive runners home from third base with one out or less. That didn't change over the weekend. In both games they failed to take advantage of Rays starting pitchers propensity to put batters on base.

But they've won both games, mostly because they're hitting the snot out of the ball in "The Bank". They've hit seven home runs over those two games, and that's more than double what the Rays have hit all series. They've also created a ton of opportunities by drawing walks. They're up to 20 for the series right now, a rate that's about 50% higher than the regular season.

All of which seemingly validates the sabremetric theories that I was questioning on Friday. So, um, the lesson it that this site is for entertainment purposes only. Any education you try to gleen from it you do at your own risk. OK?

Top Reasons to Root for Philly - #5 and #4
#5 - Your country was born there. And, to be honest, I'm not sure it could have been born anyplace else. Where else was it going to happen? Boston? Everyone knew what side of the fence those malcontents were on. New York? Only if it was gonna make some money. Baltimore or Virginia? Too genteel.

For this kind of topic, you need candid discourse, and that's where Philly thrives. You know where you stand, at all times, with almost every citizen you meet in Philly. If you want to candidly discuss an unpopular topic, like benching a quarterback, or bombing one of your own city's blocks, or, um, committing treason, Philly is where you go. You can be sure of one thing: one way or the other, you're going to get an answer.

#4 - Philly Cheesesteaks. Some of you might question whether this should rank higher than the formation of our great country. Those people have never had a real Philly Cheesesteak.

I Gotta Ask
Is there anyplace in the Twin Cities where Phils fans are gathering to watch these games? The Voice of Reason and I are looking to find a group with which to commiserate or celebtrate, whatever the case may be. If you know of one, I'd appreciate a comment below.

Maybe We Have It All Wrong

You watch a game like this, and you wonder if Bill James was shaking his head.

I know all the theories, and I've crunched the numbers. I know about the importance of taking a walk, and hitting for power, and run differential, and high correlation factors. I laugh at ridiculous stats like 'productive outs'. I roll my eyes as Dick Bremer praises Twins players for the outs they make.


But then then I watch the Phillies piss a game like this down their leg, and I think how much different this game could've been if they just chopped the occasional pitch towards second base.

The Phillies didn't lose this game because they didn't hit for power or get on base. They lost it because they couldn't advance runners when they didn't hit for power or get on base. I count one opportunity in the second inning, one in the third, and one in the fourth. And those aren't times that they needed a clutch hit. Those are times that they just needed a dribbler, a sacrifice fly, a simple ground out, to advance a runner.

We can claim that clutch hitting is not a skill, but putting a ball in play? That's a lot harder to write off. And we can claim that this is small potatoes, that these "little things" come out in the wash of a long season, but the season isn't long anymore. And, frankly, the season is never long when one is in the playoffs, and like it or not, the playoffs are the most important part of a season for a quality team. And, for that matter, for an organization. And a community.

Tonight we saw two very good teams match up, but only one of them played good baseball. Appropriately, they won. That isn't something that Bill James would be able to predict. But I like to think he would approve of the result.

Reasons to Root for the Phils - #6
They have the single best mascot of all time, the Phillie Phanatic. This sounds like faint praise. It's not. He's clever, athletic, fun, obnoxious, crude and genuinely funny.

Still have doubts?

OK. Imagine the toughest, most cynical crowd ever - that's the entire city of Philadelphia. These guys don't just boo Santa Claus - they pelt him with snow balls. And now imagine needing to dance around like a clown in front of them and keep them entertained. Just how entertaining would you need to be to do that for, say, 30 minutes?

The Phanatic has done it for 30 years. And he's absolutely beloved in that city. That's how good he is.

I'll give an example. The Phanatic likes to spend time on the corner of the opposing team's dugout, leading the crowd in "jinxing" the other team. One time, a member of the other team hit a fairly hard foul ball towards the far end of the dugout. After taking one bounce off the hard Veterans Stadium turf, it bounded over the dugout and into the stands....

where it was caught by the Phanatic?

At the crack of the bat, the Phanatic had started running on top of the metal dugout to the far end. Midway, he broke into a feet-first slide. After sliding 10 feet or so, he stuck out one hand and timed it perfectly, stabbing the ball in mid-bounce as it flew past him. And THEN he popped up like you're taught to do when sliding into second base, just before he got to the end of the dugout.

I'm a fairly athletic guy with decent hand-eye coordination. I could practice that with a friend throwing the ball exactly where I wanted it and not make that catch one times in ten. He did it with a batted ball, without any warning, on one try, while wearing that ridiculous green suit. Trust me when I say this to you - if you have any exposure to him at all, you cannot help but love the Phanatic.

Yo! Siding with the BASS-bowls

I got the the email on Monday:

Subject: Tough Break for the Phils

They were the scrappy overachievers that managed to outduel the big money Mets late in the season for the second year in a row to represent the underdog league against the perennial AL home field advantage of the defending World Series champions Evil Empire Too.


Now they'll just be the BASS-bowls who ruined the greatest sports story in the history of baseball.


Except "BASS-bowl"[1] was a seven letter curse word, which I think you're going to be seeing used quite a bit here over the next few days.


And I gott say, speaking as an adopted son of the city of Philadelphia, they're OK with that. If anything, this city would absolutely relish the role of the bass-bowl that craps all over America' favorite sports story.


And here at the Twins Geek Observatory, we're OK with that, too. This playoff run has given me a chance to reconnect with my second favorite baseball team, and the first team I ever had season tickets for. I'm going to document some of that reconnection over the next few days, as finish each story off with the "Top 7 Reasons to Root for the Philly".


First, Game One Notes....


The Seventh Inning Balk
There was a lot of talk, a little debate, and quite bit of disgust about the lack of a balk call in the seventh inning. I'll set it up: down 3-2, the Rays got their leadoff batter, Carlos Pena, on base because Ryan Howard bobbled an easy grounder to first base.

On the next pitch, Pena tried to steal second. Left-handed pitcher Cole Hamels was looking right at him, so he threw the ball to first base. Howard moved towards the throw, cut it off, threw to second, and Pena was barely tagged out at second base.

And the Rays dugout howled.

In their opinion, Hamels had essentially changed his mind in mid-motion, and that's supposed to be balk. But the key is those first three words, because the rule is more than a little nebulous:

Rule 801.1 (c) At any time during the pitcher’s preliminary movements and until his natural pitching motion commits him to the pitch, he may throw to any base provided he steps directly toward such base before making the throw

There isn't any doubt that Hamels did step - kinda - toward first base. Of course, he also stepped - kinda - towards home. Had his natural pitching motion committed him to the pitch? Was his step towards first base 'direct' enough? Those are all pretty subjective calls, and they're made in an instant, and they need to be made by a first base umpire who might very well be caught by surprise by the entire series of events.

This much is clear - if Pena would've broke towards second even a split second later, Hamels would have either delivered the pitch home or been called for a balk. And even with the possible balk, Pena would likely have been out at second had Howard not moved towards the pick off throw. It was that close.

Pulling Hamels
Hamels had pitched through seven innings, giving up two runs and providing the Phils all the help they could really expect. But he had also only thrown 100 pitches, leaving open the possibility that he could at least start the eighth inning. He didn't get that chance as manager Charlie Manual replaced him with Ryan Madson to start the eighth.

For some, this might be an obvious move, since there seems to be sort of an unwritten rule that starting pitchers shouldn't throw much more than 100 pitches in a game. But it's worth noting that Manual has not been afraid to stretch Hamels' pitch counts this year. He's thrown at least 110 pitches eleven times this year, and had thrown 120 pitches or more twice. And he's been reasonably effective, though he's been more susceptible to giving up home runs as his arm tired.

With it being a one-run ball game, that last fact probably played into the decision to pull him, but faith in Ryan Madson probably played into the decision too. Madson certainly deserves that faith. He's been used in high leverage situations in the bullpen all year, earning a Win Probability Added score of 1.23 this year. For some context, that's actually higher than Pat Neshek earned in the same role with the Twins when we were raving about him in 2007.

Fox Trak
Note to Fox: when your own announcers start mocking the accuracy of your ball/strike display, it might time to tweak it. Or retire it.

The problem seems to be that it marks where the ball was caught, but not where it crossed the plate. Fox does a nice job of tracking the flight of the ball, so you can often see how it curves or dips after it makes its way through the strike zone. But the Fox Track only seems to note where it was caught.

Which is why during the last series the announcers noted that it seemed like they never saw it show a strike. And they were right.


Reasons to Root for the Phils - #7
The Phillies have had the second greatest logo in the history of major professional sports.





What's cool about the 'P'? The middle is a baseball. And yes, I didn't notice that until I moved to Philadelphia (by which time it was no longer the logo they used). And yes, I didn't notice that the best major professional logo was both an "m" and a "b" and a ball and glove until about the same time.

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[1] - Thanks Bill Simmons

Procrastinatory Notes

I've been procrastinating for several days, but when confronted with blogging or filing my quarterly taxes, blogging is going to come out on top. And so, fueled by the IRS[1] here are random Twins/offseason notes….

Peavish Speculation
When I posted a week ago about the Padres trading Jake Peavy, I only mentioned it as an example of how pitching could be interesting commodity this offseason. Seth took it a step further and wondered if the Twins could/should acquire Peavy, especially because they seem to be some a good fit for a trade. The Padres are looking to acquire young, cheap starting pitchers and a center fielder, and that’s precisely the chips the Twins can most likely afford to trade this winter.

Seth has his own speculation, but a trade of Carlos Gomez, Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak and Trevor Plouffe would provide the Padres a package that includes two MLB player in critical positions, one player with major upside, a near MLB-ready pitcher, and a possible middle infielder for 2010. And it would give the Twins a starting rotation with a ton of upside that is locked up for the next four years. It’s not that crazy.

But it also gets rid of most of the chips that the Twins would use to upgrade their offense and specifically the left side of their infield. They can probably get by with another year or two from Nick Punto at shortstop[2], but the question is whether they want to patch 3B with Brian Buscher and Brandon Harris next year. Or whether they would feel more comfortable trading another young pitcher to help fill that, and import one veteran pitcher into the rotation.

The Minnesotan[3] in me says there is no way this happens. And to be honest, I’m not sure I want it to happen, especially given Peavy’s late-season injury. But it’s intriguing, and I’d applaud it if it does happen, just for the high-reward aspect it encompasses.

The Veteran Pitcher
So who will the veteran pitcher be, and when will they sign him? I’m going with 1/20 and Mike Hampton. You’re picks are welcome in the comments below. I’ll even give you a list, courtesy of an excellent analysis by Matthew Pouliot at Rotoworld:

Randy Wolf (Astros)
Kenny Rogers (Tigers)
Livan Hernandez (Rockies)
Orlando Hernandez (Mets)
Mark Prior (Padres)
Odalis Perez (Nationals)
Jason Jennings (Rangers)
Mark Hendrickson (Marlins)
John Patterson (FA)
Jon Lieber (Cubs)
Brett Tomko (FA)
Shawn Chacon (FA)
Josh Fogg (Reds)
Sidney Ponson (Yankees)
Claudio Vargas (Mets)
Tony Armas Jr. (Mets)
Jeff Weaver (Indians)
Shawn Estes (Padres)
Esteban Loaiza (FA)
Mark Redman (Rockies)
Josh Towers (FA)
Victor Zambrano (Yankees)
Kris Benson (FA)
Matt Clement (FA)
Glendon Rusch (Rockies)
Eric Milton (Yankees)
Justin Germano (Padres)
Steve Trachsel (FA)
Mike Maroth (FA)
Russ Ortiz (FA)
Kyle Snyder (Red Sox)
Jason Johnson (Dodgers)
Runelvys Hernandez (Astros)
Matt Ginter (Indians)
Mike Hampton (Braves)
Carl Pavano (Yankees)
John Smoltz(Braves)
Mark Mulder (Cardinals)

Ellis’ Contract
Second baseman Mark Ellis decided to stay with the Oakland A’s for at least the next two years when he signed a 2-year contract for $11 million yesterday. So what does this mean for Twins fans? It means they need to start managing their expectations.

Ellis is hurt, and he’s been battling a shoulder injury that made any multi-year deal a question mark. He’s just 31, but he had a crummy year in 2008, batting .233/.321/.373. In fact, he’s been sandwiching crummy years with very good years since 2003. And he’s been injured a lot, averaging about 130 games a season.

And yet, there is little argument that he is[4] the second best free agent second baseman on the market this year. The top guy is Orlando Hudson, and he’s hardly a premier player and he only stayed healthy for 407 at-bats last year. And you can argue that second base is a deeper position than third base.

Which is all just evidence that outside of pitching, the free agent market is very thin this year. If the Twins are going to make a big splash, it likely isn’t going to be with a free agent signing, even with all the payroll room they have. It’s going to need to be in a trade. And that likely will mean giving up one of the bats or arms we would like to have deemed “untouchable”. There just aren’t many other options.

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[1] The hardest working, most patriotic agency in this great country!
[2] Though, to be honest, I’m a little worried about Punto’s defense. I know, I know – I’ve seen the highlights. I’ve also seen an awful lot of groundballs scoot between 3B and SS last year. I’m not raising a red flag, just something to collectively keep our eye on next year.
[3] As opposed to the Minnesotan on the outside of me.
[4] Er, was

Trade Targets

Tuesday, after all kinds of rumors, we learned that Jake Peavy is being made available by San Diego Padres this offseason. Peavy won the NL Cy Young last year, and followed it up with a 2.85 ERA this year.

Add those stats to Peavy's age(27) and contract, which pays him "just" $56 million over the next four years, and he might become the most desirable starting pitcher on the offseason market. Before yesterday, that title probably belonged to CC Sabathia, but there probably aren't a half dozen teams that could chase him given the probably size of his contract. There are at least another half dozen teams that would consider making a run at getting Peavy.

The effect on the Twins is minimal, but what effect it has is probably negative. One of the Twins better trade chips this winter is going to be one of their young arms, and this adds one more chit to the supply side. And it's a chit at the top of the list, and one that bumps everyone else down a notch.

But it made me wonder - just what teams might be looking for a starting pitcher this offseason? So let's find out, going through the five worst team in the league as ranked by their starting pitchers' ERA:

Texas - 5.51 ERA

Huh. the name everyone talks about is 3B Hank Blalock, but he's left-handed, and doesn't hit away from Texas.

I wonder if they would ever consider trading shortstop Michael Young? Young is 31 years old, batted .285/.339/.402 last year, and is right-handed. He's under contract through 2013, at $16M per year. His production has slipped the last two years, and that contract is a lot longer than I would like, and it's no bargain. Still, I'd need to think about an offer like that.

Baltimore - 5.51 ERA

Wow. Another team that traditionally needs pitching, and another team that has some infielders worth considering. Third base is manned by Melvin Mora, who looked cooked around midyear, but ended the season hitting .285 (825 OPS) with 23 HR and 104 RBI. He's also right-handed, but he's also 36, and the really bad news is his contract. It's cheap, but it lasts just one more year, and it has a full no-trade clause. It's thought to be unlikely that Mora would waive it, since he has something like centuplets or something.

The other premier piece they could offer is second baseman Brian Roberts. Roberts is mone of the top leadoff hitters in the game, sporting a .397 on-base percentage and 40 stolen bases last year. He's 31 years old, a switch-hitter, and becomes a free agent next year. He would be a great piece to add, but he would likely be a rental, and the Twins could probably use the power more than the another disciplined on-basse guy.

Pittsburgh - 5.36 ERA

The Pirates essentially began their rebuilding process once again midway through last year when they traded Jason Bay for a package of players headlined by third baseman Andy LaRoche. He's perfect - right-handed, projecting power, cheap, young - but they won't be trading him, and the rest is just filler.

Colorado - 5.14 ERA

This is the one team that was desperate enough last year to take Livan Hernandez, don't forget. They have two third baseman, but no second baseman, so it remains to be seen if either is really available.

Garret Atkins hit .286 (780 OPS), is 28 years old, bats right-handed and will be a free agent two years from now. The concern usually expressed about him is that he hasn't hit much away from Coors field.

Ian Stewart hit .259 (804 OPS), is 23 years old, bats left-handed and is two years away from arbitration. He struck out 94 times in 266 at-bats last year.

I wish I could believe in Atkins. I really wish I could. He would be a great fit for this team if I just believed he could hit outside of Coors. Looking at years 2005-2007, he posted a 790 OPS on the road, and I'd sign up for that in a second. But this year it was back down to 661. I'd love to talk to some people who cover the Rockies a bit more and see what they think about him.

Seattle - 5.07 ERA

I and every other Twins blogger has beat Adrian Beltre into the ground. My take is here, and I'll leave it at that, so I can watch the end of this Phillies game.

When I started this, I planned on going through the 15 worst teams, but the truth is I just found too much. We reviewed five teams, and I found seven candidates, and the only one that is probably completely out of bounds is Mora because of his no-trade clause. It's been fun to look at the specifics, and I think I'll take another stab at this later next week. But the more valuable lesson might be just how marketable the Twins young, cheap, and good pitching could be.

Did Gomez Get Better?

Did Carlos Gomez get better last year?

Yes, there is no doubt in my mind that he got better. His fielding certainly got better, and by the end of the year, I no longer gasped every time he had to rifle a ball into the infield. His plate appearances got better, too, or at least he didn't appear to have as many puzzling at-bats by the end of the season.
Did Carlos Gomez get better?

And there was also an uptick in power in September that was very encouraging. Gomez had 10 extra-base hits in September, reminding us that he's supposed to be a lot more than the dink-and-dunk guy that we want to mold our speedy bunt guys into. if we're luck, he has a skill set that could remind us of Ricky Henderson in a couple of years - speed, power, on-base skills....

Well, except for the on-base skills, of course. Gomez's big problem this year was pitch recognition, and it was no secret. He started hitting quite a bit more as the season ended, and I wondered if there was any evidence that he also started showing a bit more selectivity at the plate. So let's check out his monthly stats quickly.





If Gomez started laying off the plethora of low-and-away offspeed pitches that he was force fed by opposing pitchers most of the year, I'd hope to see him take more walks and striking out less. Except for a brief period in August, I'm not seeing that. He got a little better as the season went along, and he was a lot better than he was in an overmatched April, but he still wasn't good.

What is "good"? Well, the average for the American League was about two strikeouts for every one walk. At a ratio of about 5:1, Gomez ended the season more than twice as bad at plate discipline as your average major leaguer.

Which, by the way, doesn't mean he doesn't belong in the major leagues. Lots of major leaugers have a ratio like that, including Delmon Young, Vlad Guerrero and (in his youth) Torii Hunter. But it does mean that the primary thing Gomez needed to learn last year is going to be the primary thing he's going to need to learn again this year.

The question for the Twins is whether they should try teaching it in the same place as they failed to do last year, or whether Gomez might be served better by learning it someplace else. Like Rochester.

Burrel

Friday night I was out with Kyle Eliason, the GameDay editor who is responsible for the visiting side of the Dugout Splinters. While most of us have been talking about the Twins offseason plans in terms of position, Kyle wanted to go about it in a different way..

"Get me a #3 hitter."

I gotta say, I don't get too worked up about the whole "Joe Mauer is not a #3 hitter" thing. But let's play along, if for no other reason than I would love to add a big right-handed bat to this lineup. So what is out there?

Starting Point

Friday I was treated to a nice writeup of Adrian Beltre, courtesy of Josh's Thoughts. It's well done, nicely summarizing the rewards and issues surrounding acquiring Beltre.

It's been a hot topic lately, and I spoke about it with several smart guys on Seth's podcast last last week. Twins fans interest seems to be high, but is tempered as soon as you begin to throw out names. Everyone loves the idea of getting him for prospects. But bring up on of the young members of the pitching staff, or one of the glut of young outfielders, and opinions become more guarded in a hurry.

The problem is that we're not going to get Beltre for Boof Bonser and Anthony Swarzak. A lot has been made about the Mariners being a struggling franchise with a bloated payroll. But before we start thinking that the Mariners are going to give away Beltre for some magic beans, we should look at some other factors as well:

1. The Third Baseman market is Olson Twin thin. You could make a case that the 3rd best free agent third baseman this year is going to be Mike Lamb. When the cream of the crop is Casey Blake, who has mostly been a super-utility guy for his whole career, then the market is razor thin.

The demand for Beltre is going to be far, far greater than the supply of Adrian Beltre. What is a "fair" trade isn't really relevant. What will be relevant is what the market will bear, and the market is going to bear a lot more than 2-3 B level prospects.

2. The Mariners dont NEED to move Beltre's salary off the books. Yeah, their payroll is huge, but there isn't lot of evidence that it's a stretch for the Mariners:

2008: $117,666,482
2007: $106,460,833
2006: $ 87,959,833
2005: $ 87,754,334
2004: $ 81,515,834

(Thanks to the indispensable Cott's Baseball Contracts)

There just isn't any evidence that the Mariners care one whit about cutting payroll, and there is plenty to indicate otherwise. For instance, when a team flat out rejects an offer to take unload the $10 M contract of Jarrod Washburn (which the Mariners did this year), I think we can safely assume there isn't any urgency for them to slash payroll.

That high payroll level also means that they don't to worry about "fill-in" players. Next year will likely be the last year they'll need to pay Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn and possible Erik Bedard. All told, that'll free over $50 million in payroll. They'll be able to sign all the lower-end free agents they would ever want.

With all those holes and all that money, they Mariners are going to be shopping for players with some Big League chops, or at least with some tremendous upside. The Twins don'thave the latter in the high level of their minors. But they do have plenty of candidates to plug some of those rotation holes, and a couple of guys who could replace Adam Jones, who the Mariners traded away last offseason, in center field.

In short, we need to start thinking of the Mariners in much the same was we think about the Mets. They have money, and they have expectation, and the pressure will be to compete sooner rather than later. Discussing them trading Beltre for a collection of minor leaguers is likely a fantasy. One of the Twins young regulars is going to be the starting point.

Live Blog - Phils vs. Dodgers - Game 1

We're coming to you from the Bonnes Bar and Baseball Basement in the Twins Geek Observatory. It's been more than a decade since the Phils made it to the NLCS. The last one ended with the Phils advancing to the World Series, me making that face you see above, and a bunch of us being discovered (and chased) from the kitchen of a Pizzaria Uno well after closing time. Sounds like an opportunity for a live blog...

1st Inning

Good Lord, is Manny Ramirez good. I don't know how far he hit that "double", but it only stayed in the Citizen Bank Park because of an architectural quirk in center field. He is an absolute hitting freak and hot as two suns right now. If the Phils end up being eliminated early in this series, I'm going to need to start rooting for the Red Sox in the ALCS, just so I can watch him face them.

Jack Buck and Tim McCarver raised one salient point and yet, I find them annoying.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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Fox gets mad props for having Harry Kalas introduce the Phils at the top of the first. He doesn't rank as high as cheesesteaks, pretzels and TastyKakes as a Philly institution, but he's at the next level.

Gawd, I miss Whitey.

So does Ryan Howard ever inside-out a ball to the opposite field? If not, it's going to be an awfully long night for him.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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2nd Inning

I just want to point out the The Voice of Reason(TVoR) just arrived for the game because she was too busy vacuuming upstairs. We both agree she's to blame for the early deficit.

And we learn that the home plate umpire tonight is Mike Reilly, whose recent work includes butchering the final game at the Metrodome between the White Sox and Twins. The next day I wrote:

I don't know if he had a bad night, or if he's just going through a rough patch, or if he's losing it after 31 years on the job. But I do know that someone besides the guys yelling from the two dugouts should call that performance what it was: embarassing. It truly marred an otherwise amazing game.

He doesn't seem as bad tonight, though he did call a strike on Ryan Howard for a pitch that Fox showed to be at least 6 inches outside.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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The bottom of the second provides a good example of why the designated hitter is underrated. The seventh hitter in the order gets a 2-out single, and my reaction is a yawn. You know the worst position player will be hitting next. And even if he somehow gets on base, the pitcher will be batting next. Yawn.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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3rd Inning

Hamels has only given up one run through 3 innings, but he's also give up three hits, two walks and four strikeouts. Usually Ks are a good thing, but in this case, its adding to his pitch count. He's already at 55 pitches through 3 innings.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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The highlight of the bottom of the 3rd inning? Using the basement toilet that was recently fixed for the first time in six months.

So, no, this game hasn't been everything I hoped so far. Utley leads off next inning. We'll hope for better.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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4th Inning

And things don't get any better in the top of the fourth. The Dodgers benefit from a fortunate lead-off double, but they take advantage of it. Give credit to Casey Blake for the job he did. Down 0-2, he works the count and eventually grounds out to the right side of the infield (and he's right-handed). The Dodgers got 'em over and got 'em in.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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Derek Lowe is at his junkballing best tonight. Everything he throws seems to be swerving as it approaches the plate. He might as well be throwing a wiffle ball - but harder. He just sat down the heart of the Phils order - Utley, Howard and Burrel - in order.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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5th Inning

TVoR is tempting fate tonight. For the upcoming elementary school book fair, she's cutting bookmarks. With a paper cutter. While she tries to watch her Phils. 8.5 is the over/under on digits she'll have at the conclusion of this game. If Manny Ramirez gets on again, I wouldn't put it past her to take one off just out of anger.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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The Phils finally get the crowd a little revved up and a runner in scoring position when the catcher Carlos Ruiz and the pitcher Cole Hamels each get two-out hits. Rollins pops out to left field, but at least he got the ball out of the infield.

Oh, and that second point under the second inning? You can ignore that, OK? We'll just keep that our little secret.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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Sixth Inning

After a lead-off single, the Phils turn a double play on a nice play by shortstop Jimmy Rollins. It not only snuffs a possible rally, but it probably means Cole Hamels gets to pitch the seventh inning.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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Shane Victorino leads off the inning. I'm guessing that South Philly loves Shane Victorino.

And they probably love him even a little more right now, because shortstop Rafael Furcal just threw a ball over first baseman's James Loney's head. Victorino is on second base.

Which turns out to be significant. For some reason, Derek Lowe, both last inning and this one, is a little freaked out by having a runner on second base because he believes they're reading his signs. Even after calling out his catcher to change the signs, he starts dancing around and scratching the mound like a hyperactive chicken. He looks like someone dumped itching powder down his pants.

Which may or may not have had an affect on the meatballs he threw to Chase Utley or Pat Burrell. And which they deposited into the bleachers of the Bank.

I never thought that Derek Lowe would exit this game before Cole Hamels, but it just happened. And I think I probably speak for a large segment of Dodger fandom when I say it happened a couple of batters too late. (Do people in Souther California scream at their TVs? I have trouble picturing that. "Dude. You should should pull him. Like now.")

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Seventh Inning

Hamels finishes (I assume) his night by striking out two of the batters he faces and getting the other to ground out weakly. That's 105 pitches, and he was battling from behind through the 92nd one. Nice recovery, kid.

In a related note, my wife has been doing The Happy Dance (which The The Boy™ believes he has copyighted) roughly a dozen times since that 92nd pitch. She's doing it right now. Join along, won't you? DO-dah-DO-dah-DO - DAH!

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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I love the Joe Torre State Farm commercial. I like the idea of him sticking the Yankees nose in another playoff run. And I'll even buy that he should get some of the credit for the Dodgers success this year.

But he pulled Lowe too late. He should have been pulled before Ryan Howard, let alone Pat Burrell.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Eighth Inning

The Dodgers' have the meat of the lineup hitting in the eighth, but since it's not the ninth, the Phils can't bring in Brad Lidge. Fortunately, they also have Ryan Madson, and he gets out of the inning without a runner getting past first base. Manny Ramirez was totally fooled by a changeup - and still managed a weak line drive that fortunately went right to Phillies third baseman Pedro Feliz. Manny is going to be scary this whole series. There is just no way around it.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Chase Utley bats, and I end up getting props from TVoR for his very existence.

Apparently, very early in his career, he hit a grand slam, and she was all excited to tell me about how some rookie with a WASPie name hit a grand slam. And I got all excited because he was on starting on my roto team. And she was flabbergasted.

So now she claims I discovered him. And I'm OK with that.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Ninth Inning

This will be a tough inning to type up. And I don't mean that emotionally. I mean that physically, because I'm going to need to knock on wood every time they mention that Brad Lidge hasn't blown a save yet this year (knock, knock). Except in Philly they call it "touching wood". You can add your own punchline to that one.

That first out was a fly ball hit awfully far to right field.

Lidge has been perfect, but he has not got stronger as the season has progressed. He's bringing to mind another closer from the playoffs from an earlier decade, and I hesitate to even mention his name.

Good lord. The second out might have been hit farther than the first. TVoR is even making sure her happy dance is a tiny, quiet, lower case, happy dance.

dodahdodahdo-dah!

Anyway, until the Phils win a big one, it's going to be hard for Philly to ever trust a closer again. But you have to like how the Phils handled that this year. Guess who threw out the first pitch for the first playoff game this year? Yep. The-Wild-Thing-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named. Talk about jumping in head first....

And like TWTWMNBN, Lidge gets the third out on a pitch that bounces in front of home plate.

Game 1 Final: Dodgers 2, Phillies 3

Epilogue

Phils win, Mike Reilly redeemed his reputation, and TVoR won the "over" bet on her digits. Thanks for stopping by.

Phoning It In: Lingering Injuries

Hey. If you've looking for a TwinsGeek fix on the offseason, check out SethSpeaks radio podcast from last night. I'm on with Seth, Nick Nelson from Nick's & Nick's and Parker from Over the Baggy.

Towards the end of the podcast, we talk a little bit about the offseason and how the Twins have a chance at signing a number of players to long-term deals. So I'm rerunning a story from March of 2007, where I talk about the poor timing some of their better players have had in terms of injuries, and how much it cost the Twins in subsequent years.

It also explains why the offseason before they are eligible for arbitration is the best possible year to get long-term deals done. The Twins have several players who fit that description this offseason, including Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Delmon Young and Pat Neshek. I expect we'll see long-term deals for at least those first two, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see nearly a half dozen long-term deals or extensions worked out.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Lingering Injuries

They keep telling us that Matt Garza’s neck is just stiff, but they can’t fool me. It’s some degenerative spinal injury, requiring at least a half year’s worth of rehab.

And that’s if we’re suddenly lucky.

For some major league franchises, the cost of the minor leagues is just the cost of doing business. To the Twins, it’s an investment. The millions of dollars that are spent in salaries, scouting, per diems and signing bonuses are quickly recouped when a high-impact rookie provides millions of dollars worth of production for pennies on the dollar.

For instance, for the numbers that Justinn Morneau and Joe Mauer put up last year, a good chunk of teams would have been happy to pay $10 million. Each. And then they would’ve toasted their good fortune.

The Twins paid them $785,000. Combined. Which means that the Twins previous investments in the minor leagues provided at least a $19 million return for the organization, just for those two players. That’s the kind of return that low-revenue, low-payroll teams need be competitive.

Unfortunately, the Twins ability to leverage those investments has been limited due to a nearly unprecedented string of year-long injuries to high ceiling prospects. The Twins have had four players in the last few years who were considered elite prospects, an impressive number for any organization. But so far only Garza had managed to stay relatively healthy (knock, knock).

Joe Mauer’s knee cost him almost all of 2004. Jason Kubel’s knee cost him almost all of 2005 and ultimately most of 2006. Francisco Liriano’s elbow cost him half of 2006 and all of 2007. And the concussion from a bean-ball, along with a series of offseason plagues, didn’t keep Justin Mornea from playing 2005, but likely cost him a year of development.

Of course, injuries are a part of the game, and it isn’t difficult to find other teams who had players that suffered year-long injuries. You might even be able to find another team with year-long injuries to four high-impact players. But you’ll need to look long and hard to find a team that had worse timing.

That’s because what REALLY hurts a team like the Twins is that they all happened within the first two years of each player’s major league careers. Injuries those two years minimize the return a team receives from their minor league investments. But they hurt just as much years after the player has healed, because it makes it unlikely that a club can sign their high-impact players to a long-term contract that is below market value.

There is no better time for a ballclub to approach a rising star about a long-term deal than after their second complete season as major leaguer. Up to that point, the player has made close to the major league minimum, probably in the neighborhoold of $300-400,000 per year. That’s some nice ching to be sure, but it’s likely not enough to make sure they’ll never need a real job. They still have one more year to play before their first year of arbitration, which is where a star player can suddenly make several million dollars.

If the club offers the player a multi-year guaranteed deal after two years, they’re offering a lifetime of security a year earlier than the player would otherwise receive it. And all they’re asking in return is for the ballplayer to be a little less filthy rich over the next few years. It makes a ton of sense for both the ballplayer and the club to agree to that kind of a deal.

But because of early injuries, the Twins have yet to agree to that kind of deal with any of their young impact players. Everyone talked about locking up Maure and Morneau this year, but the time to negotiate with them was last offseason, before they reached arbitration. Unfrotunately, Morneau had underperformed through an injury-plagued year, and Mauer’s knee was still a question mark. Instead, the Twins didn’t get to talk about long-term deals until each one of them was already guaranteed a lifetime of security with their $4 million arbitration settlements.

This spring, Kubel is in the same boat as Mauer and Morneau were last year. You can bet that two years ago the Twins planned on approaching him with a long-term deal this offseason. They can’t, because they don’t know if his knees will remain healthy, or whether he’ll regain his stroke. If he does this year, he’ll get his $3 million whether or not he signs a long-term deal with the Twins. And we’ll be wondering why he and the Twins can’t get a long-term deal done.

And next offseason? Well, Liriano will be finishing his second year – except that he won’t have pitched in the majors for a year-and-a-half. So the Twins won’t be able to comfortably offer him a long-term deal, and will again see if their highly prized prospect breaks out just before his first big pay day. And you wonder why they weren’t anxious to have Liriano go under the knife?

When a star player’s lack of production is taken into account, the cost of an injury for every team is easily in the millions of dollars. That’s already devastating to most low revenue franchises. But the timing of these injuries is even worse, because it’s likely costing the Twins another $1-2 million worth of salary per year than if they could have negotiated a long-term deal at the best possible time. And it’s happened four times.

Is there any doubt the fifth is coming? So when you see pictures of Terry Ryan standing behind Garza in the Twins dugout, delivering a neck massage, don’t be so sure it’s a Photoshop job. That neck rub could be as valuable an investment as the entirety of the Twins minor league payroll.

Q&A: A Veteran Starting Pitcher

Asked in another forum.....
Q: Are the Twins satisfied with the young SP or will they go to the well and grab a vet or was the Livan experiment enough for them to stick with the youth? It seemed Blackburn and others began to tire at the end of the year.

In 2003, when Eric Milton got hurt in spring training, rather than use the left-handed prospect they had in the bullpen, the Twins went out and signed left-handed Kenny Rogers. Why? Because they didn't want to count on the left-handed prospect too much, they liked having him in the bullpen, and because they liked having depth.

That left-handed prospect was Johan Santana.

Oh, and here's the kicker - Santana wasn't an unknown at the time. He had been pressed into starting duty in 2002 because of injuries. In 14 starts, he had posted a 7-4 record, a 3.13 ERA and 89K in 74.2 innings.

So will they sign a veteran pitcher?

Between the five young guys they already have in the rotation, and the amount of pitching talent they already have still in the minors, and the fact that Rick Anderson could probably teach a bowl of linguini to to be a respectable starting pitcher, it makes absolutely NO sense for them to sign a veteran SP this year.

Which brings the chances of them doing so down to 90%.

Switching To Fall

“Looks like someone moved the switch to ‘Fall’”, jokes the mom as she walks her son into the Basilica’s Youth Ministry. I’ve played the Minnesotan-discussing-the-weather role enough, and know it’s my job to agree good-naturedly. But I’m not staying in the school with mom and The Chatty Chatty Princess. I’m going to soak up The Fall a bit, do a little wandering, hopefully spiritually as much as physically.

That was a half hour ago, and now I’m sitting on a bench in Loring Park, overlooking cat ‘o nine tails, a pond, and rising condos with large red banners that display enormous telephone numbers. The wandering turned into planning, and the planning turned into writing, mostly because I’m hoping the laptop warms me a bit.[1]

The cold, cloudy and slightly gusty weather is ugly, but it has some healing properties, the meteorological equivalent of a scab. I’ve been too busy the last few days with various crises to think about the Twins season or even GameDay. I’ve also been too busy to watch most of the playoffs, and I’m realizing that’s not a new phenomenon. Since I’ve started this blog and thought about baseball on a daily basis, I’ve often quit following October baseball after my Twins were no longer factors.[2]

That changed last night since The Voice of Reason’s team, the Phillies, are alive and well in the postseason. We had a planned date last night, going to Champps Alley in the Warehouse District to see if the Phils could sweep the Brewers out of the playoffs. It didn’t go particularly well for the Phils, but we did well enough.

It was way too cold for the Alley, but we tried it anyway, placing TVOR directly under one of those propane heating umbrellas. The weather meant that a good portion of the handful of customers was either regulars or employees who were off-duty, and we had a nice time comparing stages of life with them.

I asked TVOR what I should order and she gave me here eye roll. She’s heard that joke roughly two dozen times, because in the past 15 years I have never – not once – ordered anything besides the Buffalo Chicken Sandwich with Waffle Fries and Seasoned Sour Cream. I’m surprised a bigger deal isn’t made of this, especially because I know I’m not alone. My brother, who lives in Australia, brings a list of food he must have in every return visit, and the BCSwWFaSSC is on there every time. It’s not just me.[3]

We pay as much attention to the beers[4], the commercials[5], and the local wildlife[6] as to the game. It is not going like we might have hoped. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel makes a somewhat dubious aggressive move early in the game, pulling Jamie Moyer for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth. I don’t know that it cost them the game, but it didn’t help. Later I notice that the Brewers have brought in Eric Gagne, and he looks tinder dry, begging to be torched. A runner is on base, and he falls beyond to Chase Utley, and we stir the ashes a bit, looking for a spark. But Utley chases a bad 3-1 pitch with Ryan Howard waiting on deck. The 3-2 pitch is popped up, and the sparks fade.

But I notice that I’m not living and dying with every pitch, like I was earlier this week. I’m not dissecting at-bats, or looking up a ballplayer’s splits against left-handers. I’m just watching a game, watching a bar, and watching my wife. Maybe regaining some perspective. Maybe healing a little. There is time now to wander around, find some of these other things. Someone has moved the switch to ‘Fall’.

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[1] It is not unlike Bill Murray in The Razors Edge, when he starts burning pages from his spiritual books to keep warm. The fire leads to his moment of enlightenment. The laptop just causes my butt to fall asleep.

[2] This is a big change for me. I used to be an absolute fall baseball junkie in the 90s. It was one of my favorites sporting events for the real-world drama, like the first round of the NCAA tournament still is. And I wonder if the change is because I’m blogging, and absolutely gorging on baseball during the season. Or if it’s because the Twins don’t suck, so I’m not starved for relevant baseball come October. I suspect both.

[3] I suppose it could be genetic.

[4] I like beer. So when you have 12 beers on tap, I’m gong to find one that I like, and with Summit and Sam Adams, I was taken care of. But I gotta ask – why would you have four light beers on tap? Champps had Miller Lit, Bud Light, Coors Light and Mich Golden light clogging up 1/3 of their available tap beers. The bartender swears that it is absolutely necessary. They actually get unholy spawn of brand marketing who reject beer completely if all the bar has is Miller, Bud and Coors Light. I’m pretty sure this is somehow tied to the End of Days.

[5] The savvy folks at Viagra have done it again. Sponsoring a “Plays That Changed The Game” spot during the Phils/Brewers game, they chose Joe Carter’s home run in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. You know, the one that killed the Phillies dream season in 1993, and still causes 37% of the Philly metro area to awake screaming a couple of times per year. Clever strategy that. The lesson? Buy stock in Cialis.

[6] We’re almost sure we saw a paid escort. There is no other way to explain it.