Reviewing PECOTA

So, yesterday I didn't post, and to be honest, it just kind of slipped my mind. And then it almost did again today. You would think after doing this for five years, it would sort of be second nature, and for the most part it is, but occasionally, I just kind of forget.

Fortunately, the editor of MNGameday.com, Tom Genrich, provided links to a couple of other awfully well done stories. At the top of the page, he linked to Nick Nelson's solid spring training preview, which I appreciated because I just hadn't taken the time to think about all that stuff. I'd love to give my two cents on a bunch of that stuff, and hope to soon.

And then over at SBG's site, Ubelmann pointed out that Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings (subscription required) came out and had the Twins winning 74 games and finishing 4th in the AL Central. Ubelmann thinks that sounds about right. To me, it seems a bit low, but I haven't even done any back-of-the-napkin figuring on that, and we'll need to get to that later. Hey, a that's my second future column idea.

PECOTA, in case you're wondering, stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. For those of you who made it through that acronym and are still awake, it is what it says it is - it's a formula for comparing players to previous players based on their performance. The hope is that by looking at how similar players developed, one can predict how current players develop. And then, when you see how close it came to the results, it allows the owner to try and optimize the algorithm for the next year with new data.

You see it referenced more and more, and I'll admit I've become increasingly uncomfortable with the weight it's given. (3rd column idea!) It would seem to be especially difficult to trust it when used for a purpose for which it isn't really intended - predicting the results of teams instead of individual players.

After all, even if it nailed exactly the rates at which each player would perform, the results are still dependent on playing time. And then you need to convert those runs scored and run against to wins and losses. Every layer adds a level of uncertainty that makes the process seem increasingly masturbatory - kinda fun but mostly kind of pathetic. Kinda like blogging.

Anyhoo, in true PECOTA fashion, it seems like there should be a nice empirical test that we can fun to get a sense if we should pay any attention to it, and that is to compare last year's results to what PECOTA predicated. How did it do?

Well, for all my doubts, it didn't do a half bad job. It got three of the four playoff teams in the AL (just missed the Twins) and about three of the four (more or less) in the NL, too. Overall, on the average, it's usually off by a handful of 3.5 to 5 games. It was fairly accurate at predicting the general finish of a team.

On the other hand, it was off by seven games or more for 1/3 of the teams in the league, and seven games is plenty significant when the worst and best team in a league are 30 games apart. The Twins need to hope that PECOTA pegs them as poorly as it did last year - only in the other direction.

Hoping for Awesome

Earlier this week I dodged the real question that the Twins face with regard to Joe Nathan. The question isn’t is Nathan awesome? He is, and nationwide, everyone knows he’s awesome. And the question (today) isn’t whether he’s valuable. On Monday we talked about just how valuable he is, and we didn’t resort to ‘Saves’ to do it. No, the question today is should the Twins try to sign Nathan to a long-term extension, and if so, for how much?

Because while Nathan has been great, and exceedingly valuable, he might still be replaceable. At first glance, there’s only one obvious candidate. Pat Neshek has been every bit as dominant by just about any metric as Nathan, though his quirky mechanics and late-season injuries might (and should) give pause to fans. After him, there are lesser candidates both to replace Nathan, or to replace Neshek in the eighth inning.

For instance, there is Juan Rincon, who was Nathan’s heir apparent before last year, but his effectiveness has steadily decreased over the last three years. Or Jesse Crain, another young phenom who is, returning from a shoulder injury this season. (And just a quick note: that is often an injury that a pitcher doesn’t fully recover from.) And others will be able to bring up other candidates from the Twins stable of young starting pitchers. I can think of three off the top of my head.

And almost all of these suggestions will be worth at least a little consideration, because if there is one thing that the Twins have done well over the last twenty years, it’s been to develop a first rate bullpen. And that’s been especially true under manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson.

This is the tandem that turned LaTroy Hawkins from meltdown specialist to dominant right-handed setup man. They turned Eddie Guardado from left-handed soldier into a closer. They coaxed several years of usefulness out of JC Romero, which deserves combat pay on top of any accolades. And they’ve turned spare parts from other organizations, like Matt Guerrier, Denys Reyes and yes, Joe Nathan, into consistently reliable relievers.

Sooner or later, whether you’re an organization or an individual, you have to start trusting in your strengths. Developing relievers and closers has been a strength of this organization for twenty years with the last real flop being Ron “Shudder” Davis. It’s not a sure thing that the Twins can replace Nathan in the bullpen, but if you’re looking for a gamble that will save you $12 million, this is a pretty good one.

Which doesn’t mean you don’t offer Nathan an extension, it just means you do so from a position of strength. The Twins don’t need to get this deal done. They shouldn’t pull the trigger on this kind of deal unless they’re getting a contract that they think will be an asset over the next few years, and maybe they can offer money up front (and the guarantee of a multi-year deal) to get that concession. Above all, it CANNOT have a no-trade clause, in any way, shape or form. That’s a deal-breaker.

From Nathan’s standpoint, he has a choice. He can pitch for $6 million next year and then test the market. The closer market has exploded lately, including a $46 million, four-year contract to the 32-year-old Francisco Cordero. If Nathan pitches well this year, the 34-year-old can likely expect at least a three-year deal. That would probably come in around $40 million, which means he’ll make $46M over the next four years. Or he can take less money now, and have that money in hand, whether or not his arm falls off in 2008.

Does that leave the two sides enough common ground? Maybe. How about a deal that rips up the last year on his contract and gives Nathan a $6 million signing bonus, along with salaries over the next four years of $7M, $8M, $9M, and $10M. That brings the total to $40 million over the next four years.

That gives Nathan his big payday a year early at 85% of its value. It gives the Twins a premier closer attached to a very desirable contract that they can move if the team goes south. Nathan gives up $6M, but becomes wealthy beyond his dreams, and the Twins take on all the injury risk.

And if that doesn’t get the deal done, well, the Twins have plenty of options. The next step would be to begin negotiations with Pat Neshek on a deal, maybe as long as four years. He won’t get to arbitration until 2010, but you never have more leverage with a guy than when he’s not a closer. After all, the team gets to decide who is on the mound in the ninth. That’s an insight that the Twins have consistently leveraged in the spring, after they’ve confirmed their relievers are healthy.

The step after that would be to let Nathan have another great year and then trade him at the trade deadline, where relievers have been incredibly valuable. And Nathan’s next step would obviously be to become incredibly rich while picking the city in which he practices his craft.

Either way, both the Twins and Nathan have a chance to come out winners. So long as he stays awesome.

Pie

Usually, you don’t see this level of giddiness following a two-hour musical remembrance of the Holocaust. Not that it wasn’t warranted.

“Did you hear how we got the most applause?” were the first words out of The Chatty Chatty Princess’s mouth.

“Yes, you did,” knowing precisely why. And it wasn’t for the reason she thought.

We wound our way through other Children’s Choir members in the green room at Orchestra Hall, found our way out, and walked back to the car. Or at least The Voice of Reason and I walked. My 10-year-old probably thought she was walking, but was closer to twirling, despite never really going around in a circle. Meanwhile, I was preoccupied for the 323rd time by how freaking cold this winter was.

Cold and dark and sick. And not just me. The whole family has been cold and sick for weeks. And it was late and there were dirty dinner dishes stacked next to the sink and lunches to be made and laundry to be done and a stupid post on Livan Hernandez to write. My wife and I had already decided we would be going straight home.

So we hurtled down 35W as a monologue emerged from the back seat. Underneath it, I whispered, “I want pie”.

“Fine,” TVOR sighed.

I don’t know why the night called for pie. I suspect it’s some submerged childhood memory, or possibly it’s genetic, but after a night on stage, there must be pie. These last couple of weeks hadn’t been easy, for her or for us, and this was the payoff. This night without pie would be a flower picked but not smelled.

TCCP hovered approximately four inches above the booth bench in a perpetual state of motion. TVOR watched with a perpetual state of amusement. And I sat across from them, feeling around the table with my heart, soaking in the joy, in the same way TCCP had soaked in something else during that standing ovation.

The music and message had been strong, but the payoff for the parents wasn’t in the haunting tunes or pictures. Our payoff was a chance to join a throng in expressing the hope and emotion we felt towards our kids. And to watch the kids feel that. My not-so-little girl was apparently still riding that wave.

“What was your favorite part of the Oratorio?” asked my wife.

“Well,” she replied sheepishly, “when Osmo pointed to us, and we standed up alone, and everyone clapped extra hard.”

When that happened, I grabbed the binoculars, because I wanted to see her face. She thought the extra applause was about a job well done and songs well sung. But that was only the source of the initial applause. The extra applause was an early valentine. That extra wave she felt was love.

Baseball Stuff
Sometimes you just find the right writer in the right place at the right time. Yesterday that writer was Jason Stark. If you haven't read his blog about the congressional hearings yesterday, you're missing out.

Back tomorow with more on Joe Nathan and the right and wrong kind of contract the Twins should offer him.

And He Shall Be Livan

OK, let's cover Livan Hernandez briefly. And really, I mean briefly, because it's late, I'm sick as a dog, and if I was even half of a writer I'd be telling about the Oratorio at Orchestra Hall that The Chatty Chatty Princess just sang in. Instead I'm writing about an overweight, overused veteran pitcher. And that's because I'm a bad father.

I could also be declared legally blind for not seeing this a mile away. Especially because on Friday night I was at a party with a bunch of other Twins geeks(again, bad father), and the topic of "What veteran free agent pitcher would you sign if you were the Twins" was raised. I said I'd rather they just went to war with the kids, another fellow thought they should try and get a veteran arm to soak up some innings, and I was OK with that if we could identify a guy with some upside.

But looking through our mental rolodexes we couldn't find a very good fit. Josh Fogg? Kyle Lohse? The guy we liked best was R. A. Dickey, the minor league knuckleballer that the Twins lost in the Rule 5 draft. Nobody (as far as I remember) came up with Livan. And that includes a half hour later when one of the guys started playing Elton John on the organ and broke into Levon. I swear to god I am not making this up.

Cause here's the thing - if someone would've mentioned Livan, I'm pretty sure he would have been the consensus choice. I expect this pick will be blasted in some areas, and that isn't totally unjustified. And I'll be reading them, because it will be interesting to try and determine if the reality they're advocating is really the result of a paradigm. Personally, I can't get too worked up about it one way or the other, and I'm not deadset opposed to it.

Is it a waste of money? Hell yeah, but right now the Twins have money to waste. Bill Smith has done some things well this year, but he's also flubbed a couple of doozies, and one of those is the Twins budget this year. He was way too conservative early, a trait he shared with the previous GM, and now they have money to burn. Not signing Hernandez isn't going to fix that. This is essentially a freebie. (And yet one more piece of evidence that the Twins should never be afraid to bid an extra couple of million dollars per year to re-sign their stars. )

Is it going to take away innings from younger pitchers? Probably, but it's not like there won't be plenty left. The starting rotation is still going to have 800 innings to spend on developing major league pitchers, and the bullpen will probably have a couple hundred more. I'm not going to weep for the 200 innings that will be soaked up by Hernandez, especially when I was willing to hand them off to R.A. Dickey.

The biggest problem with Hernandez is that he just might not be very good. This, in my opinion is the strongest argument. His ERA has been rising, his strikouts have been dipping, and his home run rates will make Twins fans remember Brad Radke and Carlos Silva - and not in a good way. The consensus opinion is that his arm has absolutely been fragged by overuse, and last year's 4.93 ERA in the National League is going to give attentive fans pause.

But on the other hand, he's just 32 years old. He has learned to survive more on guile than power, and his guile hasn't been seen in the American League ever. He also started very strong last year, with 5-2 record and a 3.36 ERA in his first 11 starts before there started being some reports of a sore neck, etc.

Finally, it's worth noting that Livan sure thought he's be doing better than this when he turned down the Diamondbacks offer of arbitration. He likely could have made more money by just accepting that than he did by signing with the Twins. And Livan, Livan likes his money. He makes a lot they say.

But maybe most importantly, it's not like he's bumping the best of the Twins pitching performers down to the minors. Given all the youth on this team, some guys were going to really struggle, and they were going to need to stay on the roster because there wasn't going to be many options. It's unlikely that those players, whoever they ended up being, would have posted the upper 4's ERA that the Twins are hoping they can coax out of Hernandez.

They also get a guy who knows how to pitch, and someone who can nominally be the #1 guy/horse in the rotation until a youngster steps up and grabs it (and someone will). Pundits will suggest that this signing will hurt some of the development of young pitchers, but I expect that the Twins signed Hernandez for exactly the opposite reason. We'll hear that they signed him to help the young pitchers by example and take the weight of the world off their shoulders.

Maybe that will end up as prophecy or maybe it will end up as irony. I don't know. But the Twins have developed about as many minor leaguers into regular players as any franchise in the majors. They probably deserve the benefit of the doubt on the strategy they choose.

Nathan More than his Saves

Let’s start with this concession: the Save is a bullcrap statistic.

I don’t really know how you can argue any differently. It is defined in three different ways, and really none of them have any objective basis. I’ll take it further. I believe it has slightly corrupted the game of baseball, resulting in a lower level of play and a truly inefficient use of resources.

But that does not mean that Joe Nathan hasn’t been one hell of a pitcher.

Because there is a non-bullcrap statistic that shows exactly how valuable he has been. It’s called Win Probability Added or WPA, and it should be a beautiful statistic, because it should bring the sabremetrics and traditionalists together. It’s truly a shame that it’s so rarely referenced in the media, but I suspect that’s partly because it isn’t particularly easy to explain, so let’s try and do so in less than 100 words.

“WPA measure how much a player does to help his team win games. It starts with a long list of probabilities pulled from 30 years of major league baseball. Every situation is listed along with the percentage of times that teams in that situation won. So, if a team goes into the bottom of the eighth down a run they have a 23% chance to win.

And from that starting point, each batter and pitcher can earn points by how much they help their team. So, if the leadoff batter gets on first base, his team now have a 31% to win, and the batter gets the 8 points difference, while the pitcher is penalized –8 points. If the next batter hits into a double play, then his team’s chances drop to 13%, and the second batter is penalized –18 points while the pitcher is rewarded another 18 points.”

Yikes, 149 words. Nobody is going to use that in a 750 word story. We’ll work on that. Feel free to take your stab at it in the comments section.

Anyway, over the last four years, the leader in these points on the Twins hasn’t been Johan Santana. And it hasn’t been Joe Mauer, and it hasn’t been Justin Morneau. In fact, it wasn’t Morneau even in the year where he was voted MVP. The leader over those four years, and individually in three of those four years, was Joe Nathan.

How can a guy who has only pitched about 70 innings per year be the most valuable guy on the team? Well, as you get nearer the end of a close game, every at-bat and every pitch count a lot more in WPA, because they count a lot more in a game. For instance, every time Nathan takes the mound at the bottom of the ninth with a one run lead and nails down the save, he gets 13 points.

Does that seem like a lot? Well, let’s not forget that these points haven’t just been assigned by some cognitive statistical society. They reflect the actual number of percentage points that player have helped their team over 30 years of major league history. He gets those 13 points because 13% of the time, a pitcher has failed to do his job in that situation.

Also, it works the other way, too. If Nathan gives up a two runs in that half inning, he loses 87 points. That’s the way it works for a closer. It doesn’t take too many blown saves over a season to wipe out all the “saves” that a closer might accumulate.

So Nathan’s ranking at the top of that list isn’t some statistical shell game. He really has been that valuable for the Twins. His impact on games is more than the number of saves he has, or his All-Star appearances, or his Cy Young votes (he’s finished in the top 5 twice). It’s even more than the intangible comfort that he gives the coaches and teammates. His impact can be measure objectively, and it’s been huge.

The ‘Save’ has had several negative impacts on baseball, but trashing it won’t get rid of it. The task at hand is far harder. It needs to be ignored, and replaced with a more concrete evaluation tool. We shouldn’t let a justifiable disdain of it cloud our recognition of Nathan’s performance.

Windows

One of the things that I’ve become increasingly aware of in the past year is the influence of paradigms. A paradigm is window that we all have, but may not recognize. It is a deep-seeded belief that affects how we view the world.

Here’s an example that I have heard. Imagine you are sitting on a subway car when a father and his four children get on. It takes the kids about 45 seconds before they start misbehaving, getting on each other nerves, wrestling, and disturbing other passengers. Meanwhile, the father sits passively, almost detached.

Ok, so put yourself in that subway car. You probably feel a little annoyed. As it continues, you wonder if you should say something. Maybe you scold the children, or shoot a dirty glance at the father?

Well, it turns out that someone does ask the father if he could do something. The father reacts almost as if he’s awakening out of a dream. He apologizes, saying they all just came from the hospital. His wife had just lost a fight with cancer. He had been lost in thought. He speculates aloud that the kids probably don’t know exactly what to do with the feelings they’re experiencing.

OK, now put yourself in that subway car again. Still feel annoyed? Still planning on scolding the kids? What look are you giving the dad now?

Here’s the thing: the actual reality inside that subway car hasn’t changed. You still have a detached father, four misbehaving kids, and a crowded subway car. Only the background story changed. Before you were stuck in a moral drama about the decline of parenting in society. Now, you’re in the middle of a tragedy. And so your reality, both how you view this and how you react to that car, is totally different.

You see this all the time in journalism, whether it be blogging or the corporate media. For example, reactions to the drafting of Ben Revere by the Twins in the first round of the 2007 draft were all over the chart. Pretty much the sum total of what we knew about the guy was that he was fast and some draft experts had projected him to go in the 3rd or 4th round. And so we fit that into our paradigm and got differing vastly differing opinions.

Those that thought that the Twins weren’t spending enough money criticized the pick, convinced that Revere was chosen that high because the Twins wouldn’t need to pay him much. And, indeed, Revere signed for less guaranteed money than any first rounder since 1997. Plus, the Twins made moves later, such as releasing Jeff Cirillo and trading Ramon Ortiz and Luis Castillo, that suggest that finances really were a concern for the draft last year.

However, those that find the Twins were adept at finding diamonds in the rough praised the Twins for recognizing Revere’s skill and grabbing him early rather than risk him being gone by the 92nd pick. And in Revere’s first season, he had a monster introduction to the rookie leagues including hitting .325 with 10 triples (in just 191 at-bats). In fact Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the Twins #1 prospect, and the only five star prospect in the Twins system.

But on the other hand, there were also people who were frustrated with the Twins lack of power, and they criticized the pick because it smelled like another overhyped piranha. And, sure enough, Revere hit exactly zero home runs those 191 at-bats, and Baseball America warned that his ceiling will be limited unless he develops some power.

So which one do you pick? Well, all three sound pretty valid, but again, the reality of Ben Revere hasn’t really changed. Whichever one you pick doesn’t tell you that much about Revere, or even about the Twins. Mostly it tells us about you, and particularly what you believe about the Twins.

Hmm. It appears these windows work both ways.

Could We Have Kept Santana?

Could we have kept him?

I know the general consensus is that the Twins couldn’t have kept Johan Santana, but what is that consensus based on? Raw numbers? Um, compared to what? Total revenues that the team doesn’t publish? Anticipated payroll? If so, I haven’t seen it. History? Only nominally, since before this offseason, the Twins hadn’t lost a truly big name to free agency since Jack Morris.

No, the general consensus is based mostly on spin. Spin that Pohlad is cheap. Spin that the Twins are ultra-conservative when it comes to long-term deals. Spin that this is Minnesota, and we just don’t hang onto the superstars for very long. And in this case, the spin was right.

But could we have kept him?

At first glance, the contract Santana signed with the Mets isn’t too terribly different from the one the Twins offered. It was reported that the Twins offered a five-year, $100 million contract on top of the $13 million contract they already had with Santana for 2008. Let’s break that down and see what it looks like:


Year Twins Mets Difference
2008 $13M $19M $6M
2009 $18M $20M $2M
2010 $19M $21M $2M
2011 $20M $22.5M $2.5M
2012 $21M $24 $3M
2013 $22M $25.5M $3.5M
2014 $0 $5.5M* $5.5M*


*The Mets have a $5.5M buy-out option of a $25M team option for 2014. It will automatically vest based on innings or awards Santana wins.

Let’s throw out all kinds of caveats. First, the breakdown of the Twins offer is just a best guess – it was likely broken down differently - but the totals mesh. Second, my details on Santana’s contract comes from Cot’s Basball Contracts site, which I find to be an invaluable resource, but not necessarily an infallible resource. And finally, the innings or awards that are necessary to automatically vest the 2014 year of the contract haven’t been reported (as far as I know). If they’re ridiculously easy, that last year should read $25.5M instead of just the buyout clause. But usually, one just uses the buy-out option money, since that’s the only money that is truly guaranteed.

You probably saw a bunch of numbers and skipped over it, right? If so, just take a second and look at that last column. If those numbers in the Difference column are added up, the total is $24.5M. That’s a prohibitively large number, and the kind that drives premier free agents into the arms of the Mets, Yankees, etc.

But should it? I gotta tell you, individually they make a Twins Geek squirm. For instance, the biggest number in that difference column is the $6M total for next year, but that was absolutely in reach. Not to beat a dead horse, but the Twins are still under payroll. They could’ve paid that and still have been under their anticipated payroll budget for next year. (And that even includes the signing bonuses that the Twins gave Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau as part of their long-term deals).

Then we get to the five middle years of the deal. One can probably argue that the Twins can find better ways to spend $20M or $25M than to put it towards one pitcher. But I think you can also argue that if the difference between having the best pitcher on the planet and not having him is $2M to $3.5M, then maybe they’re best off stretching just a bit. Especially when that marginal money has historically been used to sign a veteran player for a secondary role, like Jeff Cirillo or Craig Monroe or Ramon Ortiz. Would they really be missed?

And, finally, we get to the option year. Would the Twins have been so opposed to a team-owned option year? Hell no. Obviously, they would want to make sure that the incentives for automatically vesting would virtually ensure that Santana was still one of the top pitchers in the majors. But beyond that, there is no risk there, and the only real cost is the $5.5 million buyout.

And, unfortunately, it gets worse. Because it turns out that contract defers about $5M of each years’s salary for later payments, which means the real value of each year comes down a couple of million dollars.

The biggest remaining questions are about Santana himself. Did he want to stay? Did he want to shine in a bigger market? Would he have accepted a similar offer from the Twins? And if you think he would, then why didn’t he accept a slightly smaller offer? We can’t answer those questions, and I’m not sure that the Twins or Santana’s agent or even Santana could.

But it doesn’t look like the numbers should have been the unrelenting roadblock. It might be that a lower revenue team like the Twins just doesn’t have any business risking that much on a single player. So it’s not something I can condemn the Twins for.

But yes, it looks like we could have kept him.

---

Sorry, I didn’t post yesterday. I was out of town, at a cabin in the middle of Wisconsin, wrapping up a weekend with the guys. The cabin is luxurious, but essentially “off the grid”, with no cell phone or internet access.

The guys, on the other hand, are generally not luxurious, and rarely off the grid. They’re also all about my age, and some of them are very old friends, and some of them are newer friends. The weekend is traditionally spent recalling our shared memories, comparing notes and busting each others chops. (Oh, and taking money from Jimbo in the Sunday Super Bowl Pool. That’s definitely become a tradition.)

It comes with a high price since we each leave our families to participate, but it is undoubtedly worth it. The stories about each other and abuse thrown at each other reaffirm and reconnect bonds that time, distance and life weaken. And this year, an inordinate amount of time was spend reflecting on the last year, and candidly evaluating our own and each other’s victories and struggles. That's the kind of feedback that is invaluable, made more so because it is not always comfortable.

It is not unusual for friends that you have in college or early in you adult career to be friends for the rest of your life. But it's also not unusual for them to fade away. That is a real loss because time adds a dimension to a relationship that cannot be replaced, and that was reaffirmed this weekend. Thank you to everyone who joined me this weekend, and everyone from their families who made it possible. I'm already looking forward to next year.

On Ignorance and Bliss

Maybe we feel sorry for Bill Smith, or for ourselves. Maybe living in this god-forsaken tundra just naturally requires some sort of natural optimism, or instlls a need to justify our tortuous choices. But, whatever the reason, there sure has been an effort to justify the Johan Santana trade by comparing it to past deals for Twins stars.

In the last two days, I’ve heard about the criticism leveled at trades of Frank Viola, Chuck Knoblauch, AJ Pierzynski and Eric Milton. And I’ve heard how that was wrong, and how we all learned afterwards that the players the Twins received in return were not just fair, but ultimately favored the Twins. And I’ve heard that we should all just practice a little patience.

But I think there’s a difference in how those trades were viewed by casual fans versus how they were viewed by the wonks. And by baseball wonks, I don’t mean journalists, because some journalists are wonks and some of them aren’t. I mean the folks that study this game, and the business and the salaries and the minors and the draft. I’m talking about the geeks.

The casual fan’s reaction to those previous trades matched their reaction to the Santana trade, and it was probably best captured by Nick Coleman in Thursday’s paper.

“The Twins' best pitcher -- and one of the best in baseball -- was traded to the New York Mets for four stiffs no fifth-grader heard of before.”

(I know, I know. I shouldn’t do it. Literate bloggers should, by now, have had their fill of picking on Nick Coleman. It surpassed “easy” years ago, and cleared “cruel” soon after. But lord almighty he makes it hard to not pummel him ruthlessly. I mean, if he doesn’t want to be bullied, why is he playing with his retainer in public again? And sweet geezus Nick - you need to quit smelling your fingers. It’s like taunting tigers in the zoo. I’m begging you.)

I call Coleman’s method of judgement “The Baseball Card Method” of evaluating trades. Essentially, it advocates that teams should trade players the way kids trade baseball cards, based mostly on stats from previous years. It is based on a desire to ignore salaries, future growth, and projected stardom. It’s often practiced with a reference to “The Good ‘Ol Days”.

Maybe that’s appropriate, because it might have been legitimate for trades made thirty years ago. If so, it has long since ceased, collateral damage of a more equitable system for distributing revenue to players. Which, ironically, is something I think Nick Coleman might favor. Regardless, it allows its proponents to trash most trades a low revenue team makes.

But while those previous trades were trashed by casual fans, they weren’t trashed by the wonks. The wonks evaluate trades by different standards, using the context of payroll, or of future level development, or even with an eye on how the 20th and 21st guys on the roster might help the team next year.

I remember shortly after the Eric Milton trade, I made a small appearance on an FM station, talking about the Twins, and they asked me about the trade. I told them exactly why it was a steal for the Twins – that the Twins freed up an oppressive salary, reduced their injury risk for the next season, and got back a couple of players that might fill reserve roles. We conitnued chatting a bit more about it before the interviewer suddenly stopped and said, “Hold it. You mean you LIKE the trade?” It was like she awoke from a dream.

You see, it was a totally foreign concept, because the trade was being bashed nonstop in the traditional media and on sports talk stations. Fans were irate. Milton had been the golden child, the next big thing. He’d pitched a no-hitter for chrissakes. NOBODY liked that trade. What was Terry Ryan doing?

It was completely the opposite at TwinsGeek.com and on the baseball wonk discussion boards like DTFC. There, the reaction was bordering on jubilant. It was assumed that moving Milton’s $9 million salary was a lost cause, and that the Twins wouldn’t be able to get a warm bucket of spit in return. The Phillies were viewed as suckers – beautiful, gullible, glorious suckers – for giving us anything in return, let alone a couple of useful role players in Carlos Silva and Nick Punto.

This trade is different. I spent yesterday getting IMs and emails from wonks, and for the most part they were in the “talk me down from the ledge” vein. They have a totally different reaction to this than from the other examples. This isn’t a trade for four guys that the public doesn’t know but the wonks love. This is for four guys that the wonks KNOW, and that they know enough to not embrace them.

Which lead to a strange lament yesterday. I spent one email chain yesterday writing how miserable because I knew all these guys coming back from the Mets. For me, it’s one of the more disconcerting aspects of this deal. Usually there’s some guy included that the wonks don’t have on their lists, and often that guy has ended up being Francisco Liriano or Jason Bartlett. Seeing a relative nobody like “Alexi Casilla” coming back makes us feel like the Twins scouting department is doing their homework. Without a name like that….

Well, you feel like the Twins just plain got taken for a ride. And all the evidence that is seeping out about final offers, and Santana’s demands, and the apathy since the winter meetings seems to support that. We may want to believe that this is the same as the other trades, and that in three years we’ll be praising the Twins organization for their foresight. But the future isn’t bright just because Nick Coleman is crabby again. This time, we can't count on today's ignorance leading to tomorrow's bliss.

Nonsensical Trade Points to Santana's Influence

USAToday.com is reporting that the Twins have traded Johan Santana to the New York Mets for a package of prospects. Invariably, the details of this bleed out much more slowly, and the deal won’t be finalized until Santana and the Mets reach a contact agreement, but with the Mets payroll, there is no reason to believe that won’t happen.

The trade will be a nonsensical ending to what has been a nonsensical situation. Initial reports are that the deadline was self-imposed by Santana, which is particularly disappointing, because the Twins absolutely would have preferred to wait a few more days. The trade or non-trade of Eric Bedard was going to provide a shift that might have well have moved some teams in a different direction, so why trade Santana before we know how that affects the market? After waiting a couple of months, why not next week?

This is not the first time I’ve been confused during this mess, er, I mean, process. My paradigm of this situation must be completely skewed, because there are truly dozens of questions that I can’t answer. If we go over them, maybe we can find an explanation that makes sense. We can start with….

Why aren’t the Orioles trading Bedard to the Mets instead of the Mariners? And why weren’t the Mariners more interested in Santana?
Short of including Jose Reyes, the Mets have always been a TERRIBLE trading partner for the Twins. Their minor league system is a duplicate of the Twins, filled with mid-level pitching prospects who are almost ready for the majors, and hitting prospects who are several years away. The Mets can offer almost nothing that the Twins don’t already have.

The package that the Twins got from the Mets illustrates this. Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey are duplicates of half of a dozen pitchers in the Twins organization. Deolis Guerra might be special, but hasn’t made it anywhere near the upper levels of the minors. And it isn’t clear that Carlos Gomez, who headlines the package, is a significantly better prospect than Jason Pridie. He’s certainly not someone that Twins can count on before 2009.

The maddening par is that they would have been a GREAT trading partner for the Orioles. The Orioles are in full rebuilding mode. They might very well prefer some high-ceiling prospects that are a couple years away. God knows they need some starting pitching help, even if it’s just to plug the middle of their rotation. The Mets are a great fit for the Orioles. Why the hell aren’t they trading Bedard to them instead of to the Mariners?

For Twins fans, that would have be the best case scenario, because the Mariners have plenty of money to spend, and have exactly the kinds of prospects the Twins need. And they would desperately need a top flight pitcher to be any kind of threat to the Angels. They could practically be in the driver’s seat in the division (not to mention the playoffs) for the price of a AAA center fielder (Adam Jones) and a middle reliever last year (Brandon Morrow). How can they not make that deal?

Why weren’t the Cubs, Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies or Rangers in this thing?
These are teams who have a history of paying high salaries. And all of these teams could use even a decent starter, let alone an annual Cy Young contender. And all have some intriguing talent to offer back. So why didn’t we getting a sniff of rumors about them? Why haven’t we heard about Felix Pie headlining a trade from the Cubs, or Hank Blalock from the Rangers, or even some sort of salary swap with Pat Burrel from the Phillies?

The common response was that Santana would prefer to be with an “east coast” team, but was he going to turn down $140 million (before he needs to throw another pitch) because he wants to live a little closer to Florida? Really? Are Chicago and Texas so much further from his home? And why wouldn’t the Twins be trying to get the Dodgers and Rockies into a bidding war, since the Yankees and Red Sox seemed to be lost in a daze. Which brings us to maybe the best question….

What the hell are the Yankees thinking? (And for that matter, the Red Sox?)
I can kind of understand the Red Sox not getting carried away. After all, they’re coming off a world championship, so they put a couple of reasonable offers on the table. Plus, they figure they’re better situated than the Yankees to offer the offensive talent that the Twins need.

But I can’t understand the Yankees. They were clearly the second best team in their division last year. The other wild card teams, the Tigers and the Mariners, are trying like hell to improve their clubs. And they’re rotation is filled with injury histories, whether it be veterans like Mike Mussina and Andy Petitte, or rookies like Phil Hughes.

And the situation would have been damn near intolerable if the Red Sox got Santana, right? At the very least they would end up needing to face him in the playoffs. And let’s not forget facing him in the regular season as they try to stay ahead of the pumped up Tigers. Or the Mariners and their weak division. And they passed because they didn’t want add a pitching prospect (Ian Kennedy) whose ceiling tops out as a #2 starter to the deal? That’s like the Twins passing because they don’t want to add Kevin Slowey to a deal. It makes no sense.

SO WHAT WAS GOING ON??!!??
I know what I’ll hear from the fans of those respective teams – it’s all too much to give up for one year of Santana. Fiddlesticks. The Mets won’t get a year of Santana, they’ll be getting seven years of him, and they’re going include the prime years of the 28-year-old’s career. Eric Bedard would undoubtedly have been cheaper, but he also might be gone two years from now. Santana will be the defining star of that team into the middle of the next decade. And maybe of New York.

He’s too expensive? Wrong. Imagine his price tag if he had another top five Cy Young award finish this year. If you think an 8-year, $200 million contract is beyond imagination, you need to work on your imagination. And his salary for 2008 is just $13 million, or slightly more than the Mariners will be paying Carlos Silva.

Did those teams think they could just wait until next year? Maybe. But about eight teams were going to be waiting to throw money at Santana next year, and only one of them was going to get him. And now, of course, they won’t even get that chance. Instead they’ll all get to bat against him for the next seven years, of not during the regular season, then in October. How many will think they would rather have their couple of prospects than Santana in 2009?

Did teams think he was hurt? If he is, he certainly doesn’t seem to recognize it. SI.com is reporting that he turned down a $100 million extension from the Twins. That doesn’t exactly sound like a guy who is worried about his health.

Were teams just hoping that the Twins sign him? This isn’t a bad thought. Because the Red Sox and Yankees, the Mariners and Angels, and the Rockies and Dodgers, seem to be fine with the status quo. That’s also why the Twins threat to trade him to the Mets was so non-compelling. The only team that would really care about the Mets getting him is the Phils. In fact, if the Twins really wanted to Mets to offer up Fernando Martinez (and it wouldn’t have changed my disdain for this trade), they should have been floating rumors about a big deal with the Phillies.

It’s baffling. I had hoped that the “give us your best offer” was an attempt to get the Mariners to reconsider dealing with the Orioles and the insanity that is Peter Angelos. Or maybe to give the Orioles something to think about before they reject that trade. With Bedard off the market, the Mets would have practically no real options left, and the Angels might think about responding to the move by trading for Santana.

But that doesn’t answer most of the other questions, and sadly, one other thought does. I suspect that the Twins were more handcuffed by Santana than they were admitting, which is a scenario I feared a couple of months ago. Maybe Santana basically dictated that there were only three teams that he would accept a deal with. That those teams caught wind of that. And that it left the Twins with almost no leverage. And of course, it appears he ultimately forced a trade just before the Twins could really react to a positive shift in the market.

I’m looking forward to you theories. And even more to the answers we’ll get when this whole thing is over.

A Center Field Solution

I'll give this to Bill Smith - he isn't afraid to face the music.

That's a trait he shares with his predeccessor, Terry Ryan, who never shyed away from contact with fans, or critical radio hosts, or upset, anonymous callers. On Friday night I watched Smith walk away from his radio show and become engaged with several fans who asked about, well, everything. I didn't have a chance to chat with him at that time, since I had some friends waiting for me.

Twenty minutes later, I walked by the same spot, and Smith had moved less than ten feet. He was speaking with a fan and his son, and this time I forgot all about my friends. We began talking about payroll, and then I asked him about, well, everything. Ten minutes later he still hadn't moved those ten feet. And fifteen minutes later I remembered that I was supposed to be bringing my friends their dinner.

Obviously, my first question was about payroll, and he was surprised that things worked out like the ddid. He didn't expect players like Mike Lamb to come as cheaply as he did, and that Adam Everett fell into their lap. He also referenced trying to keep some money for Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva, which blows my mind. I should have followed up more than I did on that point, but I just had so many other damn questions.

Like center field. I asked him if he would feel comfortable about center field if he entered spring training with the current roster. He said he would, because that would mean that Johan Santana was his Opening Day starter. Umm, no it doesn't - there are still free agent center fielders out there like Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson. He said they're looking at them, too.

I don't know if that slip up was just him reciting a pat answer ("We would be very happy to have the best pitcher in baseball pitching for us on Opening Day.") or whether he really is just planning on getting his center fielder in a trade. In a later question, he felt like he didn't NEED a center fielder in return for Santana.

And I tend to agree with him. The Twins do have a decent solution for center field on the roster, or rather they appear to have two half solutions. Their names are Jason Pridie and Craig Monroe.

The biggest question about the right-handed hitting Monroe is whether he can handle center field defensively. Smith said the Twins scouting reports say he's "adequate", but probably can't play their every day. The defensive metrics in Baseball Prospectus 2007 handbook imply the same thing. In 2006, playing left field, Monroe was a single run below average, and that's in massive Comerica Park. His profile suggests he can probably handle one-third of the games in a center field platoon.

And his bat can certainly play there. Over the last three years, Monroe has hit .281 and slugged .481 against left-handers. Over those same three years, Torii Hunter hit .287 and slugged .487 overall. Monroe can't replace Hunter's bat, but he can replace one-third of Hunter's bat.

The exact opposite questions exist about Monroe's proposed platoon-mate, Jason Pridie, but that's probably a good thing. Defensively, people rave about Pridie's tools, and since he's left-handed, he would end up patrolling CF about 2/3 of the time. Offensively, the 24-year-old never did much before last year, and as Jesse at TwinkieTown pointed out, a lot of that is related to his lack of plate discipline.

That didn't change much last year, but he still had tremendous success, and it was fueled by raking right-handed pitching. Against the port-siders, he hit .326, and slugged .572(!) over 359 at-bats in AA and AAA. (Read that last sentence again.)

In fact, it looks like the Devil Rays figured out that he needed to platoon once he was promoted to AAA. He had 194 at-bats against right-handers and 48 at-bats agains lefties, or about a 4:1 ratio. That's the kind of ratio you only see when a player is being held out of the lineup against southpaws.

Would Ron Gardenhire consider such an option? While the general consensus is that he avoids platoons, this might be to his liking. It would put a good glove in center field 2/3 of the time. It would put a rookie in the best position to succeed. It would allow him to get Monroe and Kubel in the starting lineup together 1/3 of the time, and it's not like the veteran Monroe has a long history with the organization. This might be a platoon that even Gardy could embrace.

During the talk with Smith, I asked him if he needed to walk to anyplace, and pointed out to him that I was mobile. No, he replied, he was here to talk to people. And approximately 45 minutes later, I found him again roaming the floor, this time with one of the Twins minor leaguers. I was again impressed with that quiet display of confidence.

It was comforting to see that considering the pressure he faces in possibly trading Johan Santana. I don't know if he was posturing or not, but I believe him when he says he's comfortable going into spring training with the center fielders he currently has. And after looking at the options, I don't blame him.

On Contracts and Cliches

It's easy to say "sign stars to long-term contracts".

In fact, that's part of the problem. Things that are easy to say run the risk of becoming cliches, and cliches are perceived to be a sort of wisdom. That's especially true for this cliche, because the judgement must be delayed, and usually relies more on something nobody can control - namely, injuries - than the details off the contract. But the details is what makes these deals happen or not happen.

On Friday, it happened, and it happened twice. Just before TwinsFest began, the Twins announced that they had signed Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer to long-term deals. Twins fans generally viewed it as good news, with some telling us to celebrate, and some cautioning us.

Last week I speculated on the type of deal the Twins should offer Morneau, and the resulting deal is awfully close. But the devil is in the details, and I suffer a debilitating weakness when it comes to this stuff. So how about we spend 1000 words or so breaking these things down?

The Signing Bonuses
Now we know what the Twins are going to do with that extra money, right? Well, kinda. This still doesn't mean the Twins are tapped out, even if they don't trade Johan Santana. The $8.75 million singing bonuses that they gave Morneau and Cuddyer don't bring the Twins to last year's Opening Day payroll. And at TwinsFest, Bill Smith said they had planned on a sizable increase above that. Plus, of course, if Santana is traded for prospects, they're going to save another $13 million.

But credit the Twins for recognizing a situation that fell into their laps and taking advantage of it. On Friday I wondered why the Twins hadn't structured an offer for Torii Hunter similar to what the San Francisco Giants agreed to with Aaron Rowand, which included a sizable signing bonus. If they didn't think of it then, they certainly did now. And there's two advantages to doing that.

The first is that the signing bonus is essentially free money to Twins management, since they weren't going to find a decent free agent to accept it at this point in the offseason. In fact, this organization's motus operandi has been to throw leftover money at veteran free agent gambles, which just encourages the coaching staff to invest playing time on them, which does as much harm as good.

And the second advantage?

The Money
The second is that money now makes the back end of the contract more palatable. For instance, last week I proposed the Twins offer Morneau a contract that paid him $14M/$15M/$16M over the last 3 years. The contract that Morneau actually signed pays only $14M over each of those last three years. Those are the years where the Twins are going to be more strapped for money, as they continue to keep their best players from free agency.

But it's not just more palatable to the Twins. If things change and the Twins need to trade Morneau and his payroll to another team, he's a more marketable commodity because of his slightly lower price tag. There's a decent chance that $14 million will be an affordable contract in five or six years.

Hmmm. I suspect I'm going to get some grief for that last sentence. There's a decent chance that $14 million will be an affordable contract in five or six years. Let's explore it a little...

Can we expect Morneau, whose offensive performance decline last season, to be woth that money? Well, he is just 26 years old. His home park is going to be beneficial to lefties for the next six years. And we've already see what he's capable of n 2006. I don't know what the various projecting systems say, but I'd be surprised if they didn't put him among the top first baseman in the game over the next few yeas.

And there's also the fact that contracts have risen at a crazy rate lately. Six years ago, the big free agent first baseman signing was Jason Giambi, who the Yankees signed to a contract that will pay him $21 million this year. But back then it was paying him just over $10 million. That kind of increase gives a sense of what has happened to contracts. And then there's Ryan Howard, who will make $7 million in just his first year or arbitration - if he loses.

The Years
By far, the most significant fact about either contract is the length of Morneau's. The Twins have NEVER given a six year contract to anyone. Hell, Kirby had a four year deal. The fact that the Twins would pony up that number of guaranteed years is the bravest, and the scariest, part of this deal.

Personally, I was disappointed that the sixth year wasn't a team option, which is what I proposed last week. But, on the other hand, Morneau's side could have insisted on the same thing - a player option for that year which he could exercise if the market takes off.

Primarily, I think the length of each deal was a factor of each player's age. Both Morneau and Cuddyer will be 32 years old when their deals expire, meaning they will still be perceived as young enough to get a three or four year deal. From the Twins standpoint, they have committed a lot of money, but they're also getting the best years of these guys' careers.

The No-Trade Clauses
Let's review these contracts with three scenarios. First, if Cuddyer and Morneau are hurt or decline significantly, the Twins are screwed. Of course, if the Twins thought that was going to happen, they wouldn't be offering them long-term deals.

But if not, they have signed two productive bats with some significant upside through their peak years. To cover themselves, one of the deals has an option year, and the other is front-loaded to provide flexibility to future payroll. If the players reach the ceiling the Twins hope, they're both going to look like bargains.

And what if both players just level out? Well, with escalating salaries, neither deal should be a terrible loadstone to the Twins, and certainly not to higher payroll teams in the league. Which is why the very limited no-trade clause that each player has is such a nice detail.

Often, when a player feels like he's signing a long-term deal below market value, they want trade protection that they won't be traded. But in this case, Morneau can choose only six teams he can't be traded to, and Cuddyer has just three. That leaves a couple of dozen teams that each can be traded to, and most players won't eliminate large market teams because they're the ones that tend to pay the best.

We know all too well that contracts that are burdensome to the Twins aren't to other teams. At the very least, the Twins should be able to get out from under both of these deals in a pinch. In a best case scenario, they could even get back something of value.

Conclusion
I haven't been terribly complimentary of the Twins ability to negotiate contracts in the past, and these aren't perfect. But they provide the Twins what they needed, and they do so at a fair price, with a creative structure, and provide them some protection. These contracts are what they should be. The fanfare surrounding these cliches is appropriate.

Friday Replies

The last two posts I wrote generated a lot of good comments. I'd encourage you to go and read them, because I, frankly think that the readers that I'm honored to host are some of the sharper cookies in Twins Territory. I've already replied to some at each of these posts, but I rarely can keep up with them day to day.

So tonight I rechecked my story about the Twins Payroll Shortfall, and started writing an enormous reply to some good points. And then I thought, what the hell am I doing. Nobody is going to read this reply. It's from four days ago. Even the people who raised the point aren't going to back and read them.

So, of coures, I kept writing. But instead of posting them there, I'm going to post them for my Friday morning entry. That way they'll be read, and instead of dissecting the latest rankings of Twins minor leaguers, I can spend some time with The Voice of Reason. Because while I like you sharp cookies, I'm not sleeping with you tonight.

Jimcrikket suggested that it's not Opening Day yet and they couldn't spend that money because they needed the payroll flexibility.

JC, let's assume they did sign Santana to the widely rumore $140 million, 7 year deal, starting at $17M and increasing $1M per year after. What's more, let's assume they sign Cuddyer to deals that give them a million or so more each than they otherwise might have got, just as a gesture of good will.

We're still talking about a grand increase of $7 million, or a level that is less than their payroll of last year.

Now, if they don't sign Santana, they might need to sign Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton, but even then, we're still not reaching the $78 million that the Twins talked about at the end of last season, and certainly not the level that would reflect MLB's overall growth and the impact of the new stadium.

Shannono suggests that there's no use spending the money if there's nothing to spend it on.

Shannon, I agree, but there was plenty to spend the money on. What's more, there was plenty to spend the money on at precisely the position that the Twins are now sweating the most, center field.

If they're worried about long term contracts, why not go after Andruw Jones, who signed for two years? If they're looking to stay young, how about Aaron Rowand, the 30-year-old defensive CF who is getting $60 million over the next five years? Or if they wanted to get a little crazy, there was Kosuke Fukudome whose last name was MADE to play in the new ballpark.

Or, there was Torii Hunter, and the Twins could've structured a contract for him like Rowand received. They could have paid Hunter five years and $80 million (12/13/14/15/16), part of which was a $10 million signing bonus from that leftover money this year. The team would actually be paying Hunter less in payroll dollars over the last two years than they did this year.

The bottom line is there is almost always a good way to spend that money.

JHaraldson cynically suggests that Pohlad wanted money back for the land overruns.

JH, that's the kind of cynical view I usually don't espouse. But I'm flabbergasted, and frankly, that's as good an explanation as any. It sure would be nice if someone would ask the Twins point blank about this. Hell, I'll write the question...

Q: Last year, Opening Day payroll was about $73 million, and by the end of the year the Twins talked about increasing it to $78 million or so. Instead, the current Opening Day payroll will be about $63 million and if Santana is traded, it will fall to almost $50 million.

As a resident of Hennepin County, I'd like to ask - what happened?

Finding the Right Lock

There's been plenty of talk about "locking up" Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer to a long term contract. The fans thinkg the Twins need to lock them up. The media thinks the Twins need to lock them up. Even the Twins seemingly think they need to lock them up.

But what if they don't want to be locked up?

Put yourself in their shoes. Morneau has already received a $5 million payday, so he's set for life in any case. Plus, he's guaranteed another $7.5 million, whether he goes blind tomorrow or not. That's $12.5 million.

If he continues to play at the same level for the next couple of years, he'll get $10 million in 2009 and $12 million (at least) in 2010. And this isn't really negotiable, because either the Twins willl agree to pay him that or the arbitrator will force the Twins to pay him that. We're at $34 million. About the only way he doesn't get that $34 million is if he has a career-ending injury this year. And then he still has that $12 million to fall back on.

And then things get REALLY good. Because he's going to be a former MVP, and a left-handed slugger that is just 29 years old. Given the escalation of salaries, he could very well be looking at a 7-year, $100-$130 million contract at that point. And that might be low.

So here's my question - just what the hell do you offer him? What exactly are you bringing to the table?

You're going to need to pay, and pay well, to buy out those first couple years of free agency, because there's a big difference between hitting the market when you're 29 and when you're 30+ years old. And don't think that guaranteed money you're dishing out is going to be buying much in the way of a break on the yearly salaries. Your return is delaying free agency - nothing more and nothing less. And there had better be enough back-end guaranteed money to make it worth Morneau's time to delay free agency.

I'll go with:
$8M for 2008
$10M for 2009
$12M for 2010
$14M for 2011
$15M for 2012
$16M team options for 2013 with a fairly big buyout - say $3M

That gives him a five year deal for $62 million, with a possible additional year that would bring the value to $75 million. It also allows him to test the free agent market while he's still 31 or 32 years old, so he can secure another long-term deal.

A $60 million payday seems like it could get him and his agent's attention, and even keep them from tasting that delicious early free agency. But on the other hand, I wouldn't blame them if it didn't interest them, and if they wanted to keep the status quo. After all, which of us likes to be locked up?

The Arbitration Agreements

First, let’s start with kudos to the Strib. I’ve been meaning to praise them for quite a while now for their thorough Twins coverage this offseason, but I keep phoning it in, so I hasn’t happened yet. Fortunately, they continue to set a high bar, and give me another opportunity.

It wasn’t too long ago that the arbitration agreements and filings that happened in the last week wouldn’t have gained more than a couple of inches or space. Now it generates a story on Friday (Kubel), another story on Saturday (Morneau & Rincon), along with a nice little graphic showing just how things are going with each player.

And for the record, the Twins have done very well. Almost every agreement has come in under the estimates made just last week. And wrapping them up presuably gives the Twins more time to work this whole Santana thing out. Particulary astute was getting some of these agreements in place before official numbers were filed, which limits the win/lose mentality that agents can fall into once both sides numbers are published.

The only thing we haven’t seen from the Strib is just how all the pieces of this fit together, and frankly, I’m baffled by this. Where the hell are the stories about payroll falling $10 to $20 million in the same year that major league baseball revenue increase 10% AND the team breaks ground on a new stadium? How is nobody noticing this? Are Magatu and I taking crazy pills?

For the record, given the recent signings, and the awards so far, here’s where things sit:

The final total up there is a little over $63 million. That's $10 million less than the Twins started the season with last year, and if they lose Santana, the payroll drops to $50 million. That is conservatively $30 million less than the payroll should be this year. Which would certainly have been enough to sign someone like Andruw Jones to patrol center field for the next couple of years. Which sounds a hell of a lot better than plugging Michael Cuddyer there.

The good news is that this should give the Twins some additional flexibility for trading han Santana. There are teams out there that are worried about taking on Santana's salary, but now the Twins might be able to take on some serious salary in return. If the Mariners can't afford Santana this year, would they change their mind if the Twins took back Richie Sexson as part of the deal?

It's not something that has been publicly discussed, but I wonder if it might not make some sense. And I presume the Twins are having some creative discussions along those lines. Or at least I hope they are, because they certainly can afford to.

Charge of Betrayal

The Twins caravan started yesterday, meaning that players, announcers and some members of the front office will be making their way across the state. They'll play a promotional video, participate in some silly activities, and answer fan's questions. And, of course, hope that nobody in that community can do math.

Because the math this year is damning for the Twins. The math says that this year, the year after the Twins gained a ballpark on the public's dime, they're going to cut payroll. The only question is, how much?

Here's the numbers, with reasonable estimates of those players who will be entering arbitration:

Major league baseball's revenues have increased around 9% in the last year, and the Twins spent a little over $70 million last year. Which means that the Twins could have been expected to increase their payroll to around $80 million - if they were a team that wasn't due a huge boost in revenue.

But of course, that's exactly what they are due. On top of the increases that every other team is expecting, the Twins can expect a $30 million boost, by their own estimates, fueled by the new ballpark. So you tell me what a reasonable payroll level would be? $85 million? $90 million?

But like a gloriously bad infomercial, just wait, there's more. Because the estimate above contains Johan Santana's salary, and most Twins fans would conclude that the likelihood of him being on the payroll on Opening Day is slim. Which means the payroll would be closer to $53 million.

That's about $30 million less than it should be. That's more than A-Rod will make this year. And it's $18 million less than it was last year. Which is more than Torii Hunter will be making in Anaheim.

Think they'll just put that money towards some long-term deal? Wrong. That's not the way business works. It's not like it's going to go into some trust account to be used in case of an emergency. That money is for THIS year. And even if it rolls over to next year, it certainly isn't rolling over to 2010, which is when the real budget crunch hits. And it certainly isn't going to extend the number of years offered to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. That money needs to be there in 2011 and 2012.

This may not be the result of outright greed - personally I think it's more the result of the risk adverse nature of the organization - but it's certainly going to be perceived as such. And, frankly, as one of the bigger defenders of the frugal nature of some of their signings, they deserve any and all criticism they get, regardless of the cause. Maybe they were painfully conservative, afraid to offer big money to a free agent until they had moved Santana. Or maybe they were just unsuccessful in wooing a free agent that we don't know about. Either way, it doesn't reinforce a sense of confidence in managment. Or competence of management.

Or maybe the popular perception is right, and their owner is a greedy sucking pig. Certainly, the math seems to suggest as much. Hopefully the participants of the caravan (and Twins Fest) may soon find out that arithmatic is still alive and strong in Minnesota's eduational system.

An Early Spring Invitation

Twins sign RHP-Zach Day to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.
Twins sign LHP-Randy Keisler to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.


You gotta love being a Twins blogger.


For most teams, being a blogger is a grind in the offseason. Sure, they might have some big free agent signings that we don't get to enjoy, but mostly they need to wait until spring training to warm up those mental muscles.


Not us. We've already had one enormous trade completed. And we've lost a giant part of our recent history. Of course, Santana trade talk has kept us all busy. And now, just when things look a little staid, the Twins give us this unexpected present - a pair of signings that seem designed to launch us into spring training mode.


They are literally begging me to write an article that could as easily be published at the end of March as in the middle of January. Because these signings are a fantastic example of a strength and weakness that this organization has displayed repeatedly for the last half dozen years. And the signing indicates that we'll likely see them again.


The signing of Zach Day is the scary one, but the problem with signing Day isn't Day's play, per se. (Or his pay. In fact, you may say their way to pay Day is OK. Hmmm, I might like having Day on this team more than I thought.) No, the problem is that Day is another in the line of pitchers like Ramon Ortiz or Rick Helling. He could be perceived as a veteran by a coaching staff whose salivation glands activate when the words "veteran pitching" are uttered. It's very likely that Day ends up pitching way more innings than he should in this organization. I would estimate the number of rants about this topic in various blogs at the end of March to be 97.5.


In reality, Day is a pitcher who hasn't thrown even 100 innings in the major leagues since 2004. He's also only thrown 372.2 innings in his major league career. As you've likely already heard, he's coming back from rotator cuff surgery, which is damn hard surgery to ever come back from. And even at his "peak", he was only striking out half as many batters as he pitched innings. Which wouldn't be terrible if he didn't walk almost as many.


So let's recap - he was never particularly good, and the last time he was used regularly was four years ago. And he's trying to recapture that "magic" after a surgery that has ended more than one career. Oh, and given the coaching staff's predisposition towards protecting their young, there's a better than 50% chance he'll be on the starting staff on Opening Day. Really, the only good news is that his presence will likely goad Bat Girl to come out of retirement for some Dr. Seuss rhymes.


Well, that's not the only good news, because the Twins also signed Randy Keisler. Again, this isn't so much about Keisler as it is how he will be used. Keisler is also a veteran (31 years old), but really hasn't done much starting since he bounced in and out of the back end of the Yankees rotation back in 2001. And yes, I know saying s0meone bounced in and out of the back end of anything probably isn't especially flattering.


But this really is good news, because Keisler looks like a piece that could fit nicely into the Twins bullpen, and the Twins are genrally objective and logical about their bullpen. Keisler is left-handed, and his strikeout rate approaches the league average and sometimes exceeds it. In his major league career he's also struggled with control, but that hasn't been much of a problem recently in mostly full seasons in AAA.


The Twins bullpen looks pretty full right now, but there are all kinds of questions surrounding various participants, from Pat Neshek's late season fatigue to Dennys Reyes' control to Juan Rincon's health. Keisler slots in as another left-handed option with Carmen Cali, only he appears usable against right-handers and in long stints. Plus, he simultaneously provides insurance for Glen Perkins, who is basically providing insurance for Francisco Liriano.


All of which might make you believe that Keisler is a better player than Day. He's not, or at least it's not obvious that he is. But he still represents a better signing, because this organization holds their relievers especially accountable while doing almost exactly the opposite with their veteran starting pitchers.


It's a nice reminder. And it's nice that they provided it in mid-January, so we can remember who we'll again be rooting for, and grumbling about, in March.

Bedard Rumors and Santana Impacts

Rumors started flowing yesterday from two different sources about a possible trade the Mariners might make for Orioles left-handed ace Eric Bedard. It’s the kind of deal that might produce a flurry of action surrounding a possible Johan Santana trade for several reasons.

1) The rumored deals set a high standard for the quality of prospects that an ace is worth.

It’s hard to compare deals, because opinions on younger players vary so widely, but we’ll try giving each of the players a letter grade. Fox’s Ken Rosenthal suggests the Bedard deal might include center fielder Adam Jones (an ‘A’ prospect), catcher Jeff Clement (‘A’) and third baseman Matt Tuiasosopo (‘C’). Jason Churchill of ProspectInsider.com also include Jones, but includes shortstop Carlos Triunfel (‘B’) and left-handed reliever George Sherril (not a prospect, but with a 2.36 ERA last year and 56 K in 45.2 IP, we’ll call him a ‘C+’).

Either is quite a haul, similar to what the rumored deals are for Santana with the:

Red Sox: Ellsbury (‘A-’), Lowrie (‘B’), Masterson (‘C’) or
Yankees: Hughes (‘A+’), Cabrera (‘C’) and Jackson (‘B-’).

Got all those letters straight? No? I’ll help. Based on my completely subjective rankings, all of the deals are in the same ballpark, but the deals for Santana are towards the low end of what is rumored for Bedard.

2) If completed, it would represent a significant shift in power in the AL West.

Coming into the offseason, the Mariners finished six games behind the Angels, and eleven games behind them in the adjusted standings. While the Angels have added Torii Hunter and Jon Garland (and lost Orlando Cabrera) the Mariners have only added Carlos Silva. Meanwhile, the third best team in the division (Oakland) is completely dismantling itself. Is it any wonder that the Angels seem content to stand pat?

If the Mariners add Bedard, that could change considerably. Adding him closes the gap considerably, especially as he’ll end up pitching against the Angels a handful of extra times per year. For Twins fans who dream that the Angels and their deep farm system start to get interested in Santana, this is the perfect development.

3) If it isn’t completed, it shows the Mariners are in the market for a top shelf starter.

The Mariners have been mentioned before, but have never really been considered serious suitors for Santana. This shows the Mariners really are looking to acquire a top starter. And it shows that they’re willing to trade Jones, who is often compared to Torii Hunter, to acquire him. And it’s not like the Mariners have given any indication that they’re skittish about paying elite talent top dollars (see Suzuki, Ichiro). Or, for that matter, not so elite talents (see Beltre, Adrian).

It’s been widely speculated that the Mariners weren’t interested because the Twins had asked for Jones AND Brandon Morrow, who they claim they absolutely will not trade. The Twins likely don’t have much interest in the Mariners other top prospect, Clement, because he’s a catcher. Perhaps the Twins could send a power reliever, or another minor league pitcher in return to make them more willing to add Morrow.

Mostly what this does is fuel hope for those waiting for a Santana deal. It shows that the compensation in return for super-talented pitchers is significant. It shows that teams are still gauging themselves. And it shows that moves still are being made. Basically, it shows that the offseason is far from over.

What about the Cubs?

Thtuck, thtuck, thtuck!!! Thtuckk!! THTUUUUUUCCCCKKKK!!!!!!!!

Like Flick in A Christmas Story, the Twins remain stuck in their dealings for Johan Santana. The Red Sox and Yankees are primarily concerned in keeping him away from each other. Ditto the Angels and the Mariners. The Mets have the needs and money but not the prospects. Are there any dark horses on the horizon?

I submit for your consideration, the lovable Cubbies. They certainly have the money, and their 3rd best pitcher is currently Jason Marquis, so I think we can safely say they’re in the market. Frankly, pairing Santana with Zambrano might give the North Side the pairing they’ve been waiting for since Kerry Wood and Mark Prior flamed out, as well as delay Lou Piniella’s next coronary by six or so months.

They were originally not viewed as an option because they’re for sale, and the perception was that they couldn’t take on any huge contracts, but that didn’t stop them from promising $48 million to a Japanese center corner outfielder with a questionable elbow. Santana would represent a significantly larger obligation, but it might also represent a significant asset.

But the Cubs also mimic the Mets in that they don’t really have the loaded minor league system one would like to see. They could conceivably offer up 22-year-old centerfielder Felix Pie as a centerpiece, but he doesn’t outrank Jacoby Ellsbury or Phillip Hughes. You could argue that he doesn’t outrank Melky Cabrera or Jed Lowrie.

On the other hand, the Cubs success last year was partly fueled by rookies, so they can fill out their offer with quantity, though the quality is suspect. I assume 26-year-old Matt Murton would be included, but where are the Twins going to put another corner outfielder? Are infielders like Ryan Theriot, Eric Patterson, and Mike Fontenot legitimate starters, or just backups who had good years? Their minor league careers suggest the latter. And can any of the young pitchers they utilized in last year’s run be effective other than at the back end of a rotation, or in the bullpen?

All things considered, they seem to be at least as good a trading partner as the Mets, who continue to be included in the conversation without bringing anything substantial to the table. Whether they'll represent an additional bidder remains to be seen, but they should be summarily dismissed.

Betting on the Dark Horse

The Twins are doing what they can to break the little stalemate they have with Boston and the New Yorks, but the supposed deals haven’t changed much. Early rumors flew about the Dodgers, Angels and Mariners, partly because they each had “acquire a veteran starting pitcher” atop of their offseason to-do list, and partly because they have deep minor league systems. But they’ve all settled for a mid-rotation innings eater, wisely or not.

On the other hand, it looks like the free agent market is certainly doing its part to goad some new teams into the bidding. For instance, paying $11 million per year, long term, for Carlos Silva. I mean, even if you WANT to have your stomach lining eaten away, can’t medical science come up with a cheaper and quicker solution? That kind of deal makes a seven-year, $140 million contract for Santana look fiscally responsible, if not downright prudent.

The Yankees would like the Twins to think that they’re the only team that’s ever paid premium dollars for a big name free agent. It’s not true. Though, to be fair, they ARE the only team to pay $16 million for four months of an alleged steroid-using 45-year-old. So they got that going for them.

But the current market for Santana was set by some other deals. Like the seven-year contract the San Francisco Giants (2007 payroll of $90 million) gave Barry Zito. Or the $18 million per year contract Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs (2007 payroll of $99 million) worked out. Or even the one-year $22 million contract that the Astros (2007 payroll of $88 million) worked out for an alleged steroid-using 44-year-old.

So I’m looking for a dark horse to emerge over the next couple of weeks. Frankly, the rest of the free agent field isn’t particularly compelling to those willing to put up the money. And Santana’s willingness (bordering on eagerness) to talk to anyone about a long-term, record-breaking deal, is leaving the rail open.

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One quick heads up. Over at TwinsCards.com's blog (Tony....Killer....and Carew), Blake is running a Twins Trivia contest. It sounds like fun, and a chance to learn some stuff to stump your friends with at the next Twins game. Please check it out.

2007 Bonnes XMas Letter - Little Risks

“Risk! Risk anything! Care no more for the opinions of others, for those voices. Do the hardest thing on earth for you.”

- Katherine Mansfield

“We took risks. We knew we took them. Things have come out against us. We have no cause for complaint.”

- Robert Falcon Scott, as found in his diary after his party froze in Antarctica

Minnesota has felt a bit like Antarctica this December, with snow and bitter temperatures, but things have gone quite a bit better for us than for Scott and his crew, who were trying to be the first to make it to the South Pole. They did make it, but when they arrived they found out that someone had beat them by a month. And then they all froze to death on the way back. So this year’s letter is about little risks. Big enough so life is worth living, but small enough so you don’t freeze to death.

We’ll start with the kids, because - let’s face it - childhood is all about little risks. It’s why, despite all the pains, we all yearn to be young again. (Oh, plus we would be attractive, full of potential and feel good all the time. So that would be kind of nice. Apropos of nothing, The Voice of Reason™ and I turned forty this year. Can you tell?)

The Chatty Chatty Princess™, who is in fifth grade, seemingly likes taking risks on writing assignments. Sometime that means tackling papers using a creative style, but usually it just means procrastinating. She’s also discovering sports, even playing soccer with the boys at recess. And she’s learning a little bit about toughness as a school patrol person this winter. (She has yet to freeze to death.) She’s also tall, prone to drama and thinks she’s a little overscheduled.

The Boy™, who is in second grade, has areas in which he likes to take risks, too. For instance, he regularly risks giving wrong answers on math assignments so he can play “Stump the Volunteer Grader.” (Q: What’s 10-5? A: 1/12 divided by 1/60). He’s also becoming comfortable with the naked aggression of chess tournaments, even bringing home a couple of trophies. He also thinks he’s overscheduled, and mostly wants to play Pokemon 24/7 on his Nintendo DS.

The apartment building we bought last year got into the risk thing too, when the furnace conked out. In the middle of February. On a weekend. During a blizzard. (And again, the freezing to death theme returns.) Other than that, owning it has gone pretty well, save for the time TVOR had to dispose of a flattened bunny carcass in August with a snow shovel. Neither the bunny nor the shovel was ever heard from again.

Besides running point on the apartment, TVORe was busy running the Girl Scout troop’s cookie campaign. She also finished her term as PTA secretary and has tried to cut down on her volunteering for the school. It isn’t clear she’s had a lot of success in that last effort.

I'm back to independent consulting, and that’s a little risk that I won’t be abandoning soon. If anything, I'm looking for some other crazy risks, almost wishing I was unemployed. TVOR should occasionally remind me of Robert Falcon Scott.

Our vacations involved some little risks. We loosed 20 friends (including my brother Jeff, who flew in from Australia) on Vegas in March. As if that wasn’t risky enough, they braved going to a Barry Manilow concert. Take that, Scott. And this summer we took the kids for our first summer car trip, though we only went as far as Chicago. TCCP and I braved the enormous Ferris Wheel on Navy Pier. TVOR stayed on the ground as The Boy™ explained “If they die, when I get to heaven, I’m gonna say ‘I told you so.’”

But we think even he would hope this holiday season finds you well. I'll be taking a short hiatus this week, unless of course a huge move is made, in which case I 'll do my best to post. MNGameDay.com will also not be updated for awhile, but you can still use the RSS feed on he bottom to monitor all the other posts in the blogosphere.

In the meantime, enjoy the week with your friends and families. And, of course, do your best to stay safe and warm. We don't want anyone to freeze to death.