New York Minute

A great game yesterday, highlighted by a blast from a guy that the Twins desperately need to heat up. Like most fans, I'm sick of talking about last year, but the parallel between Kubel's blast to save the Yankees series yesterday and Kubel's blast last year to beat the Red Sox is a little spooky. That moment is what many Twins fans consider the start of last year's remarkable second half run. It isn't (it's actually a week earlier) but I'm willing to let it ride if it means a little momentum.

Meanwhile, it's sometimes fun to see what's happening over in the other dugout, just so it helps to regain some perspective. For instance, the NY Daily News didn't think Santana was awesome as much as it thought Mussina was bad. The NY Times (and Mussina) thinks he just threw two too many pitches. Newsday looked at the larger picture, and saw this loss as just another example of the Yankees backtracking. While the New York Post gave credit to Santana - and the wind. And really, for a Twins fan, they're all enjoyable reading.

But here's what is not. John Harper of the New York Daily News takes up a longstanding Yankees tradition - openly plotting how they'll steal another team's players. And after yesterday's loss to the best pitcher in baseball, you can guess who he's got his eye on. (Though it's worth noting that he eyes, and quotes, Hunter too.)

Among the depressing insights...

- He calls Santana the $200 million question, which is a number the media here has been slow to embrace, mostly because it's almost unbelievable. Um, they believe it in New York.

- He says "industry sources" say that Santana's agent is throwing around a $25 million per year price tag. Holy cow.

- Something I never thought of. This one makes me really weary. I'll let him say it:

Or, to put it another way: how much do you think the Yankees would pay to
have the best pitcher in baseball take the mound on Opening Day as they christen
their sparkling new ballpark in 2009?

Especially if they continue sliding backward as they have this season -
and Alex Rodriguez is in Anaheim or Chicago, having opted out of his contract
after this season?

That's really a tripleshot of bad news - all the new revenue the Yankees are going to see + the pressure to justify the prices in the new ballpark + the possibility of gaining payroll with A-Rod's contract off the books.

Hmm. Maybe it's not so fun to see what's happening in the other dugout.

So, what's wrong with the Yankees?

The answer used to be simple - their pitching. And when the injuries came this spring, that looked to be the easy answer again. But those guys have mostly healed, Clemens is pitching well, and the bullpen doesn't seem to be the sore spot it once was. So, what's wrong with the Yankees?

When I research a question like that, there's a certain progression I go through - team stats, individual stats, and then news accounts. This time, I didn't get very far, because the team stats were pretty telling:

Runs scored - 415 (5th best in the American League)
Runs against - 368 (6th best in the American League)

You'll notice that prior to last night's game, the Yankees had outscored their opponents by 47 runs, and yet they came into the game four games under .500 at 37-41. That's not supposed to happen. Teams that outscore opponents are supposed to be better than .500 and vice versa. In fact, many of you know that there's a formula popularized by Bill James that converts runs scored and runs against into a record. He called it The Pythagorean Theorem, and it looks like this:

(Runs Scored)^2
Winning Pct = -------------------------------------
(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Against)^2

The Yankees then, should have a winning percentage of (415)^2/(415^2 + 368^2) which equals a 56% winning percentage, which translates to a 44-34 record. That's seven games better than their actual record, and would put them just 1.5 games out of the wild card race.

There are a fair amount of statheads that attribute those seven games to 'luck'. That may be true, but that's not what the studies say, or at least none that I've read. All I've seen is that we haven't been able to identify the difference between actual record and pythagorean (expected) record, which is different than saying it must be luck.

Not that it isn't a compelling conclusion. For instance, a study has shown that a team that outperforms their expected record is no more likely to outperform it than a team that underperformed it. So the rest of the league can't count on the Yankees to continue to outscore their opponents, but still be below .500.

There is also a belief that a team's expected record is better indicator of future success than its actual record. This is used all the time in sabremetric analysis, and will likely lead someone to say the same thing this week about the Yankees. But I wonder if its true. Let's find out.

Later this week. Right now I gotta talk about last night's game....

Melting Under Bright Lights
There are sports commentators who constantly evaluate character or poise in sports, and I'm often critical of them, because to me that's a well they go to too often. If you're going to earn a paycheck based on your analysis of some games, then learn something about the god damn game. Character and poise are too often a crutch for someone that doesn't want to do any real work.

So I'm just cringing about tomorrow. Partly because it's all going to be critical, partly because I've heard it all before, and partly because it's going to more intangible, lazy coverage.

But mostly I'm going to cringe because this time it's going to be true. I don't know where this aw-shucks attitude comes from when playing the Yankees, but I'm ready for someone to kick this team in the ass and tell them they're better than this over-aged excuse of a ballclub.

You don't out-finesse Yankees batters. You bare some frickin' fangs and go for the throat. Boof Bonser wasn't afraid to do just that early in the game, like when he was brushing back Johnny Damon. And then he fell in love with his offspeed stuff, and then Juan Rincon nibbles away at the edges and the bleeding doesn't truly stop until Garza and his little buzz cut and FU attitude started challenging these guys.

And the hitters don't get a free pass either. The philosophy is slightly different, the aggressions a little more controlled, but it still needs to be there. How about some attempts to hit the ball where it's pitched? Or making the 44-year-old man field some bunts? Or making Jorge Posada, who has been a defensive liability all year (only 15 caught stealing in 74 attempts) throw a runner out on the basepaths?

For once, I'm going to agree with the pundits. This team is too starstruck and too damn timid. If they don't stop screwing around, they're going to find themselves staying close enough to not embarass themselves, but still be eliminated by the fourth week of September.

And judging by what I've seen, they'll likely respond to it by passionately shrugging their shoulders.

The Hot Corner
The opening lineup caught my eye because Jeff Cirillo (who has recently struggled against right-handers) was in the lineup instead of Nick Punto (who I thought hit right-handers). But looking at the stats, there were plenty of reasons to play things that way.

First, I'm just plain wrong about Punto. He isn't hitting either hand this year, and he hasn't historically been significantly better versus either side of the plate. Cirillo is better versus southpaws, but he's still outhitting Punto this year.

Combine that with the fact that Cirillo entered the game hitting over .300 versus Clemens, and the fact that he's a veteran playing on a big stage, it made total sense.

And then he blew an easy ground ball that allowed two runs to score because he didn't take the extra step to get in front of it. GRRRRRRrrrrrrr.........

First Pitch
You're going to be very old someday, and you're going to be taking in a ballgame with your grandkids, and they're going to ask you about what that regular person is doing on the mound before the game begins. And you're going to say "Well, that's the first pitch, where an honored person gets to sort of start the ball game."

This is all going to happen, provided you lay of the Cheetos a bit, tubby. But what you don't know is whether these next four words are going to come out and lead to a story you can tell your grandkids about. And those four words are:

"I did that once."

Right now, those words and the story that goes with it, would cost you about $265. And the money you gave wouldn't be going into Carl's overstuffed wallet, but will support homeless youth services throughout the state of Minnesota. To bid on this and support Lutheran Social Serives of Minnesota, click on the URL below.

And HURRY. The bidding for this (literally) once-in-a-lifetime chance ends Saturday.

http://cgi.ebay.com/Throw-Out-Ceremonial-First-Pitch-at-Twins-Baseball-Game_W0QQitemZ190127058982QQihZ009QQcategoryZ25142QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

This opportunity to help raise money to support homeless youth services throughout the state of Minnesota. If people have questions, they can email as well. We are sell discounted tickets Upper Club Tickets, as well. Tickets are $15 instead of the $19 face value. LSS receives $5 from each of the tickets sold.

What's Next for Torii (and the Twins)?

It’s easy to talk about his leadership, production and intangibles, but both his and the Twins future can be found in the dollars and cents of his next contract.

ITCS (It’s the Contract, Stupid)
In 2001, they surprised the league, and staked the Twins to first place at the All-Star break. Minky, Luis, Guzy and the Canadian – the Infield of Nations. Matty, Jacque and Torii – the Soul Patrol. Add AJ and Papi and you had a core lineup that was young, talented and here to stay.

Six years later there’s only one left. For some, that longevity is reason enough to believe the Twins will re-sign Torii Hunter. For others he’s “the face of the franchise.” Or maybe it’s his defense. Or his offense. Or his leadership.

They’re all good enough reasons, but look at that list of players above, and tell me which trait the rest of them lacked. Dougie was the face of the franchise and a gold glover. Koskie was the team leader. Ortiz certainly provided offense. And Lawton had as much longevity as anyone would require.

Hunter provides some of all of the above, but he’s also still around for a much more practical reason – his contract. In April of 2002, Hunter hit nine home runs, pacing the 26-year-old to a year in which he hit .289 with 29 home runs, and a On-base Plus Slugging percentage (OPS) of 858. That led to a new long-term contract, a deal which ultimately paid him $44 million over five years. More than any other reason, that contract is what kept him in Minnesota.

And so, if you’re trying to figure out what happens next, that’s where you start. Not with a discussion of intangibles, or fond memories, or even with an appeal to Carl’s philanthropy. But with dollars and cents.

The Cost of Torii
Torii’s previous contract will have one thing in common with his next one – really good timing. Hunter’s last deal was signed immediately after what looked to be his career year. That is, until we get to 2007. Whether it is because he has made an adjustment or is smelling the money, Hunter is on pace to obliterate every offensive number he’s ever put up. More importantly, he’s on pace to outperform several centerfielders who have recently had enormous paydays. Let’s compare Hunter’s projected stats (as of press time) to the years some other centerfielders had just before they signed big contracts:

It is almost spooky how close Hunter’s projected totals are to Vernon Wells contract push last year. With Hunter being four years older, he won’t be able to receive a seven-year deal, but five years seems very achievable. And so does $15-16 million dollars per year. If the Twins don’t want to pay him that, recent history shows that somebody else certainly will.

Could there be a ‘hometown discount’? Sure, but that raises its own issue. If Hunter accepts a deal for $70 million over 5 years, or about $14 million per year, he’ll be doing so because he wants to stay in Minnesota. Which means he’s going to want assurances that he won’t be traded, in the form of a no-trade clause. That’s something the Twins have been hesitant to include in most deals. There are compromise positions (such as a trade ‘kicker’ that elevates Hunter’s salary if he’s traded) but that’s yet one more obstacle to overcome before a deal can be made.

And, maybe more importantly, the hometown discount will likely only save the Twins a couple of million dollars per year. That’s not likely to make much of a difference for a low-revenue club like the Twins. The real question is whether they can afford to commit that much money to one player.

What the Twins Can Afford
So we know that Hunter is going to have enough money to purchase his own small country. But will he be with the Twins? And if not, where does that leave our favorite team? The answers can be found in the Twins payroll level.

The Twins are spending in the neighborhood of $70 million this year, about a $10 million raise over what they spent last year. The Twins haven’t announced their salary level for next year, but it’s reasonable to assume that they would bump the payroll another $10 million in anticipation of the new ballpark. If so, the payroll would be $80 million.

Adding up guaranteed and estimated salaries of the projected roster, the Twins payroll should be around $58 million next year without Hunter’s salary. That leaves about $22 million, which should be enough to sign Hunter and add another couple of lower cost players to the roster.

And if the Twins, for whatever reason, can’t sign Hunter, things aren’t all that bleak. They still have $22 million to spend. That should be enough to sign a decent replacement, at least for the short term. And possibly add some other high impact players, too.

Fast Forward
So Hunter will be well taken care of, and so will the Twins. Does that bode well for a long-term union?

Unfortunately, after next year, the payroll picture gets cloudier and a lot bleaker. For instance, even assuming another $10 million bump, the Twins likely can’t afford Hunter AND Johan Santana and Joe Nathan, who will be free agents after next year. The payroll picture gets even fuzzier the year after that, when Michael Cuddyer could become a free agent.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Twins will be able to sign any of those players whether they sign Hunter or not. In fact, you could make a case that signing Hunter might help sign those players.

Or his money might also push some of them off the roster. Which brings us back to where we started – the impact of a contract. Hunter’s new deal, which will likely be with the Twins, could very well have the same effect as his old contract - keeping him on the roster while others move on.

Timidity

It used to be that this team prided itself on creating pressure on the basepaths for the other team. These days they seem content to bluff.

About two months ago, the White Sox came to the Dome and took two of three games. What surprised me about that series was that the Twins, against a catcher that they specifically dumped because they didn't trust his defense, refused to steal a base. In fact, they didn't try.

A month later, AJ came back to town, pissed everyone off, so the Twins ran crazy and embarassed the White Sox. Whereas the Twins promptly went to Oakland and faced a similarly weak-armed Jason Kendall - and refused to run. And they lost two of three.

And it happened AGAIN last night. Ninth inning, one out, Bartlett on first and Cuddyer at the plate. But what's really important is who was behind the plate, who was Greg Zaun, who has thrown out just 3 of 18 basestealers. He's been below average for most of the last three years.

So Bartlett takes a big lead, with one foot on the outfield grass. And he bluffed. And bluffed. And bluffed some more. And then Cuddyer hit into a double play started by the second baseman - who wouldn't have been there if Bartlett was stealing.

Listen, I know some think it's some sort of sabremetric mantra to play station-to-station baseball. It isn't, but some think it is. But every rule has its exception, and that exception is when you
1. are in a tie game and
2. have a solid base stealer at first base and
3. are facing a helluva bullpen and
4. have a noodle-armed catcher behind the plate..

...you man up, close your eyes and run like hell. And it doesn't have to happen just because the noodle-armed catcher spiked your first baseman.

On-the-job Training

One of the basic strategies that teams use in baseball is that of the opposite side advantage. Basically, players, managers and fans understand that a if a pitcher and a batter share the same "handedness", the pitcher has the advantage. But if they are opposite, for instance a southpaw pitcher facing a right-handed batter, the batter has the advantage.

Coming into yesterday's game, Kevin Slowey has been defying that logic. Slowey is right-handed, and has been semi-successful versus left-handers, who have a .286 average with an 826 OPS. But right-handed hitters were lighting him up, batting .333 with a 1063(!) OPS. Slower is making the average right-handed batter look like Magglio Ordonez.

That's from a pretty small sample size, but you can expect those numbers to look even worse today. Both home runs that Slowey gave up and every RBI hit yesterday was by a right-handed batter. Watching the at-bats, one starts to understand why.

Yesterday, Slowey was incredibly successful in getting his fastball to paint the outside edge of home plate versus left-handers and right-handers. He has a second, slightly slower fastball with some movement that one would think would be especially handy against the right-handers, since it moves towards them. He used it all night to start outside of the strike zone and then move back to the outside edge of the plate, getting a called strike.

But after once through the order, the right-handed batters looked for that pitch, and began fouling it off (three of Slowey's four strikeouts came in the first seven outs he got). Ideally, Slowey would use the aforementioned pitch to bust right-handed batters inside, or throw some breaking pitches to upset a hitters timing.

But right now, Slower is having trouble doing either one. The pitches inside aren't far enough inside, and are getting pulled into the left field bleachers. The offspeed stuff is either missing the plate by so much that batters watch it for a ball or catch so much of the plate that it's being pulled into the left field bleachers. Which leaves the outside fastball, which is nice until he gets a little tired, and his control wavers and it finds enough plate to be pulled into...well, you get the idea.

He's going to need to make an adjustment, like learning to pitch inside a bit better, or disgusing the offspeed stuff a bit better, or working the strike zone up and down instead of just side to side. In fact, it looked like discovered that last tactic about midway through the fifth inning, allowing him to get through the inning without more damage being done.

It isn't hopeless, but he's going to need to learn on the job, and he's going to need to learn on the job quickly, because this team isn't the Pirates or the Royals or even the '98 Twins. This team needs Jason Bartlett to ride out a sophomore slump and Jason Kubel to refind his confidence and Slowey and Scott Baker and Boof Bonser to be productive first year pitchers. which might be fine if they weren't also trying to win 90-plus games.

That is the tightrope this organization walks, and I suspect you couldn't find five teams in the league that walk it better, and maybe not two teams that have walked it successfully as long. And it sounds corny, but they walk it together - the players, the coaches, the farm teams and the management - working on development and relying on patience.

But mostly, they need to rely on players like Slowey learning very, very quickly. And completing his on-the-job training.

-----------------------------

Hey, if you didn't check it out yesterday, over at GameDay's Writers Blog, we're having a bit of a contest. You might remember The Bloggers Minute that WCCO did the last couple of years. The idea was to let a blogger sound off about something in a minute, which turns out is about 200 words.

We're taking turns over there, with me going first yesterday. A reader joined us in the commment section, and we should have one more posted each day this week. I'd also like to challenge the other Twins bloggers out there to take a stab at it and let me know and I'll be happy to link to it as the week goes on. It really is kind of fun (and challenging) to try and make a point and support it in 200 words or less. Good luck!

The Definition of ‘Can’t Afford’

Last week the Blue Jays put AJ Burnett on the disabled list with a strained shoulder. This was Burnett’s second trip to the DL since he’s joined the Jays, and they’ve limited him to just 35 starts over his first year-and-a-half with them. He joins closer BJ Ryan, who was put on the DL on 4/15, underwent Tommy John surgery a month later, and will be out until next year.

This isn’t the first time that the ace starter and elite closer have been linked, of course. They were both signed as part of the Blue Jays big splash following the 2005 season, and they both received two of the largest contracts that offseason dished out. The Blue Jays signed the talented and young (he was 28 years old) Burnett for 5 years and $55 million. The same rationale was used to justify the five-year, $47 million contract to Ryan, despite a grand total of 42 saves at the time.

This year, those two players represent $21 million of the Blue Jays (approximate) $81 million payroll, but really, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. After all, the Jays have a similar commitment to each of them through the next three years. Given the state of the Blue Jays current minor league system, and the age of some of their better players, it’s also increasingly unlikely that either will be part of a post season run, even if they do stay healthy.

So why are you reading about this on Twins blog?

Because at the end of next year, the Twins will have their own difficult decision to make about an ace starter and elite closer. Joe Nathan’s $6 million option year will conclude, and if he stay’s healthy, he’ll be the most successful closer to hit the free agent market since Billy Wagner signed his 4 year, $43 million deal. And Johan Santana, whose deal with the Twins ends at the same time, could be the most highly anticipated free agent to hit the market since Alex Rodriguez in 2000. You might recall that he signed a ten-year deal for a quarter of a billion dollars.

You might think that the italics in that last sentence were poorly placed. Indeed, what stands out to most people is the word ‘billion’, but it’s the duration of the contract that is more critical for pitchers. Because pitchers are far larger injury risks, which Blue Jays fans are finding out.

Twins fans will find that out soon, too. It’s popular right now for Twins fans or sports commentators to say that the Twins need to be willing to sign Santana to a $20 million deal, but the amount of money isn’t really the question. Terry Ryan hasn’t been afraid to commit money to a player for a single year, even if that player was Kyle Lohse, let alone a real talent like Santana.

No, the tough question is “For how long?”. Would you sign Santana to a seven-year deal through 2015? When he turns 36? Or Nathan to a four-year deal through his 38th birthday? Do you trust those elbows to say healthy that long? How about those labrums?

(And don’t look for an “insurance loophole”. First, because an injury that takes away five miles per hour from ace’s fastball isn’t significant enough to collect insurance. Second, the insurance for this kind of contract can jack it up a couple of million dollars more per year. And finally, insurance companies have become wise enough to not offer insurance for that length of a pitcher’s contract. That might tell you something all by itself.)

The other cliché you’ll hear right now concerning a long-term deal with Santana is that while he might be expensive, the Twins can’t afford to NOT sign him. That’s at least partially true. The Twins may have some other young talent to replace those innings, such as Francisco Liriano or Pat Neshek, but it would be devastating to watch Santana or Nathan find their way to the Yankees or Red Sox and block the Twins road to a third world championship.

But if you really want to see what a team can’t afford, imagine losing that talent AND 30% of the Twins mini-payroll because those arms are on the DL. The impact - and inevitability - of that devastating scenario is currently being illustrated by the wounded wings of some prized Blue Jays.

Twins Takes

Over on the GameDay Writers' Blog, we're playing around a little, and this week's challenge is to write a "Bloggers Minute", which is a rheotical piece that can hold an audience's interest, but still be around 200 words or less. I'm kicking it off (click the link) with a take on why Minnesotan sports fans are so down on the Twins. If you're interested in joining the fun, post a comment with your own 200 word take. I'd love to see what you got.

Crunching the Numbers

"You can't sign a 32-year-old player -- no matter how popular and productive -- for a deal like that when Justin Morneau, 27, and Michael Cuddyer, 28, will need big-dollar, multiyear contracts in the next couple of years."

- Patrick Reusse, Star-Tribune

Hmmm. I wonder if that's true about Torii Hunter. And while we're at it, let's throw Johan Santana and Joe Nathan in the mix, too. Oh hell, let's take a look at all the Twins and what the payroll situation looks like through 2010, the year the ballpark opens. We'll assume the payroll bumps up $10M over the next three year to coincide with a $100M payroll for 2010. Let's see exactly what Terry Ryan can keep, shall we?

We covered 2008 a couple of days ago, but to review, it looks like this:

The Twins have about $22M to spend next year on a CF, DH/LF, and maybe a 2B (or probably a veteran pitcher, sigh). That leaves plenty of money for re-signing Hunter if they don't look too far ahead.

Let's move onto 2009.

Things are quite a bit tighter in 2009. Ryan will be sitting with $40 million to spend and three big names to re-sign, and the numbers don't add up. Hunter will be $15 million, Santana will be $20 million and Nathan will likely be at least $9 million. And, of course, they still need someone to fill that DH/LF spot and the 3B spot. (BTW, a long term deal for Cuddyer or Morneau will help a little, but not much. Subtracting a million dollars or two will be about the max they'll save based on past deals).

Given the success the Twins have had picking up bullpen help, I suspect Nathan is the odd man out. I further suspect that the Twins won't bite on the length of the deal Santana will demand from other teams. That's probably not news anyone wants to hear, but it would free up about $20 million for some other players. Let's see what happens the next year...

Christ, things are murky at this point. You may have notice that Kubel drops off the chart even though he's not a free agent. I'm hoping by then he's hitting enough to keep, but I haven't seen enough to conclude he'll be around.

Anyway, things have become considerably tighter. There's $43 million, just $3 million more than the year before, except now Cuddyer is a free agent, too. Even if Nathan is gone, that leaves just $8M for Cuddyer, which is likely a couple million less than he deserves. Especially considering they have another half dozen player they're going to need to pay, in some shape or form.

(As I look at the numbers again, I wonder if a couple million couldn't be shaved here or there, a skill that the Twins have never been especially good at, but they have been good at finding backup in their minor leagues.)

But it looks like Reusse is right. Some choices are going to need to be made. I personally doubt whether that necessarily leads to losing Hunter, since Santana could be the most highly anticipated free agent to hit the market since Alex Rodriguez. But the Twins will have some decisions to make. AND they need to have their minor leagues continue to produce some offense if they want to stay competetive.

OMDB (One More Damn Bat) - The Orioles

A few weeks ago, we started exploring what the Twins options were for adding one more damn bat. In case you missed it, we've already talked about the Rangers (Mark Texeira), Royals (Mike Sweeney, Mark Teahen, Ryan Shealy) and the Reds (Ken Griffey Jr., Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn).

Today I thought we might check out a team that has been in the news recently, the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles fired their manager Sam Perlozzo this week and will reportedly be interviewing Joe Girardi to replace him. More importantly for Twins fans, they added Andy McPhail to their executive team as Chief Operating Officer, who knows the Twins management team fairly well.

The Orioles are an intersting trading partner for the Twins. On the one hand, they were supposed to have lots of young pitching, but that talent hasn't developed as anticipated, with injuries playing a huge role. They also spent monster money this offseason on their bullpen, which has been absolutely terrible. But their biggest problem has been their offense, which is currently 13th in the American League in runs. The Twins won't be able to help them much with that.

It's also questionable just how much the Twins can gain from that kind of offense. There are plenty of 'names' on the Orioles offense, but there isn't a single player with an OPS of 800. McPhail's history doesn't suggest he's someone who tries to go young or dump salaries, and it's not like he's replacing the current general manager(s?), so the Orioles won't make a change for change's sake. Finally, none of the big players are impending free agents, so it's not like we know any of the players don't figure into the Orioles future plans.

But, of course, we won't let some little facts like that stop some fun speculation. Let's run possibilities down, starting with the biggest name...

Miguel Tejada - He's right-handed, he's only 31 years old, and he's average 113 RBI and 27 home runs over the last four years. But this year, the blame for the slumping offense rests squarely on Tejada's shoulders, as his power has dissappeared. Of course, he's still hitting .302, and there aren't any obvious changes in his approach at the plate, so is he just overcoming a slow start?

There's also his contract. In this market, it's reasonable, at $13 million per year through 2009. Monday we found out that it likely wouldn't fit into the Twins payroll if they also try and sign Torii Hunter this offseason, but it's a contract the Twins could handle, and if he hits like he has previous years he would more than replace Hunter's bat.

The cost? He ain't gonna be cheap and you better believe the Twins would be bidding against some other teams. Matt Garza might be a starting point, but a proven young starter like Boof Bonser would be a better one from the Orioles standpoint. It might also require a replacement shortstop, perhaps Jason Bartlett or Nick Punto. There's a lot of risk in moves like that for a team that is supposedly in a pennant race. Remember Rick Reed and Todd Jones?

Melvin Mora - Mora is the name Twins fans are most likely licking their chops over, seeing as he's a third baseman. He's also right-handed, but at 35 years old, he's past his prime, as his declining stats have shown. This year he's only hitting .245 (751 OPS) with 10 home runs. But I'll duly note that is still significantly more than the Twins have received so far from third base.

The problem with Mora is his contract. It's not onerous financially - approximately $17 million over the next two years, which the Twins might be able to handle even if they do re-sign Hunter. But that affordable contract was likely signed by Mora because of the no-trade clause he has built into it. As the father of quintuplets, it's unlikely he's using that as a negotiating ploy. He just wants to stay in Baltimore.

Aubrey Huff - For the last few years, Huff has provided a .260-.270 batting average with 20+ home run power, and is an interesting fit. If you're not too particular about your defense, he's flexible at several positions the Twins have holes, including third base, left field and designated hitter. He's only 30 years old, though his numbers have declined a bit over the last couple of years. And his contract falls just under that which the Twins can likely afford, having $16 million on it over the next two years.

On the other hand, he's left-handed, when the Twins would really like a right-handed bat. And those power numbers above are not what the Orioles have seen so far from him this year, with just four home runs. Both of which mean that Huff looks a lot like a better version of Jason Kubel, except he's in the decline phase of his career, and costs $8 million more. Why would the Twins pay for that, exactly?

Brian Roberts - His chances to be moved probably increased as he was publicly critical of the club's direction the last week. He's hitting .302 this year with a .393 OBP. That looks like the kind of professional hitter the Twins often covet. And like the other Orioles, his contract lasts another two years (think Orioles management has a plan here?) and fits under the Twins payroll at just $6.3 million next year. Finally, he's just 29.

But he's also not someone who will hit for power, as his two home runs this year attest. Also, while he's listed as a switch hitter, he's MUCH better from the left side, and the Twins have several light-hitting players that already fill that need. And finally, he really only plays second base, so even if he DHed this year, he and his contract would block Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert next year. That might not be a problem, but it also isn't on the positive side of the balance sheet.

Despite the recent changes, and even if they bring Girardi on, the Orioles don't seem like they're particularly likely to be a solid trading partner. All those two year contracts and the retention of their general management team point to an organiation that is giving itself two more years to compete before blowing things up and starting over. If that changes, you'll certainly hear about it because Tejada instantly becomes the one of the hottest names in the rumor mill. And an interesting replacement if the team secretly believes they won't be able to keep Hunter.

Room for Improvement

Two of the biggest questions Terry Ryan repeatedly is asked is whether the Twins can add a new bat and whether they can keep Torii Hunter next year. As is so often the case with the Twins, the answers to both of those questions rely a lot on the finances of the team, and whether they can fit under the Twins budget, so I thought it might be a good time to do a little back of the napkin figuring. Here's where the Twins are likely at:

The Twins payroll this year is around $70 million, a $10 million increase over last years. If you assume another $10 million increase next year, the Twins could have about $22 million to spend on players, including Torii Hunter. If you assume $15 million per year for Hunter (which is tragically, probably low), that leaves $7.5 million for the rest of the improvements the Twins might want to make.

It also means that the Twins can trade for a pretty decent player, even if he has a significant contract next year - but not so significant as to cost them $10 million or so. We'll keep this in mind as we look at possible trade targets.

NEEEEXXXTTTT!

I didn't get to see a ton of tonight's game, but you don't need to see much more than the expression on Baker's face as he left the mound to figure out what's next. That was the face of someon who is frustrated beyond belief, who is so tired of failing that he isn't sure he wants to try again. It's the face of someone who would be better served in AAA, working on his confidence. Again.

You know the drill - I'm not a Twins insider, this is purely speculative, blah, blah, blah....but this team watches body language, and it especially watches it on prospects, and Baker's said "I just hate where I am right now." And frankly, I don't blame him. I still believe in the kid, but this isn't his time.

The natural question is whether it's Garza's time, and it appears it must be, because it sure isn't Ortiz's time again yet. Garza has been good, but not great in AAA, and let's not forget that he has some baggage from last year that he still hasn't shed.

Even trickier is that the Twins next starter is supposed to pitch on Wednesday against the Mets. A road start is usually a good thing for a youg pitcher, but Garza's next turn in the rotation is supposed to be tomorrow (Saturday) night. If the Twins want him to pitch on Tuesday, they'll need to cancel that start, which means they'll need to make a decision tomorrow morning. That might be a little faster than they want to move.

But they probably should, and I think they will. Judging by nothing more than the stunned look on Baker's prepubescent face, it's the right move.

edit (6/16/07): In today's Strib Twins recap, Gardenhire hints that Baker will get one more start. This makes complete sense given the schedule that Garza is on. Garza pitches on Tuesday (in Rochester). Baker will pitch on Wednesday. Thursday is an off day, which meant the Twins have some flexibility with their other starters for the next time through the rotation. That would allow Garza to pitch on Sunday (after a full four days rest) and it would make his first start on the road (which is generally preferred for younger pitchers.)

All Kinds of Notes

The Big Trade(TM)
The lead story on the news last night was TBT the Timberwolves made yesterday, trading pointish guard Mike James for powerish forward Juwan Howard. For Wolves fans there is some good news in that it's not a clear step backwards.

On the other hand, it's not necessarily a clear step forward, either. It makes room for Randy Foye, but James was never really in his way, in the same way that Howard won't ever really be in the way of Craig Smith. It also gives the Wolves one less year of a guaranteed contract, but not until the 2009-10 season. By that time, KG's contract is over, and I assume he would be gone.

But really, short of a miracle, there isn't a lot more that can be done. Next year, the Wolves would need to trade away at least two, and maybe three of their ridiculous non-KG contracts s to make their way below the salary cap. The year after that, they'll likely still be over the cap unless they move at least one of them. And then in 2009-2010, they'll be under the cap and flush with trading chits, as several contracts will be desirable as expiring contracts. And as KG plays for some other team.

What can be done in the short term? The easy answer is that Wolves need to hope they catch fire with that 7th pick. Short of that, the only other (non-KG) tradable commodity they have to improve the team is Ricky Davis, a talented but enigmatic player who could help a contending team OR just provide an expiring contract. Those two factors make him desirable to any number of teams. Whether the current Wolves management trades him might be a litmus test on whether they've learned anything from their current mismanagement of all things contractual.

Matt Tolbert
So Matt Tolbert is moving to third base, huh?

You won't find Tolbert on any prospect list for the Twins, which makes his hot start at Rochester more amazing. He's 25, which is pretty old for a breakout season, and he's also only carried this hot streak for 140 at-bats, so it might be a little early to start licking each other's popcicles.

Looking at his minor league stats so far, there's some stuff to like, provided you're not looking for big time power. He struggled mightily in 2005 in his first full yearin professional baseball, but last year he showed a fairly solid batting eyer and decent gap power, though his batting average in New Britain over the second half of the season didn't demonstrate much in the way of progress.

If he keeps up this kind of hitting (and by keep up, I don't mean hitting .379, but maybe closer to .310) you could make a case that he needs to be considered as a possible major league starting position player. But even then, I'm not sure you can project him to be a major league starter at third base unless your current third baseman is slugging .298.

What's that? Really? Um, forget I said anything.

Allocating Funds
The Twins announced yesterday that they have reached a quick agreement with Ben Revere, their first round pick in this years's draft. Revere signed for $800,000, a small amount given his first round status, possibly because he wasn't considered first round talent by at least one baseball publication.

Over at the GameDay's Writers blog, Kyle Eliason wasn't afraid to rip the Twins for their pick, in part because there were more many more highly touted prospects available, partly because Revere fits a small and speedy stereotype, and partly because he thought the Twins drafted him because he was cheap. I replied in the comments section that I thought he was overreacting a bit, but this signing seems to confirm at least the last point.

I've been critical of those writers who want to point to the millions of dollars the Twins spent on veteran pitchers this offseason, half of which now seems to be relatively wasted. My point was that the money was always a gamble, some of it (Silva's money) has paid off well, and that there wasn't much available for $3-4 million over one year that was any better.

But Kyle also commented and pointed at the draft as a place where that money CAN be used and used well. If the Twins are going to gamble on a player, why not on a player that can impact the organization for years at a time, rather than a 60 inning patch for April and May? I'm sure someone will point out that the money is likely in a seperate budget, but whose fault is that? When the Twins are drafting late, wouldn't it make sense to reserve some payroll dollars in the hope that a high-ceiling Scott Boras client might scare some other teams off?

For a competetive team, the current year always needs to be the priority. But it smelled like overkill at the time, and that seems to have been confirmed. Now it smells like that overkill may have affected this year's draft, which may affect the Twins several years down the road. None of this can be confirmed - maybe the Twins just really liked Revere and thought the other guys were overrated - but Kyle's right that this doesn't feel quite right.

Lew's Home Run
Did anyone else notice that while Lew Ford was rouding the bases last night, the PA system was pounding out the Victory March from Star Wars? Just like shooting womp-rats in Beggars Canyon back home, eh Lewk?

Wrong Lesson Learned

Twins fans knew that last year’s incredible late season surge was dangerous. It wasn’t something that this team or any team can count on, and there were plenty of warnings about it as we watched last year’s offensive lineup fail to put up last year’s numbers. We were prepared to not see the lineup transform to an offensive juggernaut just because June rolled around.

But we may have missed the real danger. Last year, we thought we learned that patience produces results - that we just needed to wait for the minor leaguers to overtake the offseason’s rent-a-veterans and raise this team to a higher level. Indeed, that’s what happened last year as Francisco Liriano, Jason Bartlett and Boof Bonser led the team’s turnaround.

Unfortunately, the cavalry is mostly here for the Twins, and they haven’t made much of an impact. The Twins began the season with four aces waiting in Rochester, and three of them have been played:

• Glen Perkins came up within the first week, but hasn’t outperformed the role he was placed in – second lefty in the bullpen. His ERA is just 3.80, but he’s also given up 32 base runners in 23.2 innings, and only struck out 16. Plus, he’s now injured, with a strained muscle in his throwing shoulder, just beginning a throwing program on Tuesday.
• Scott Baker came up to replace Sidney Ponson, whose 6.93 ERA earned him his release. Baker’s ERA after four starts is 6.45, and his turn in the rotation will be skipped this week.
• Ramon Ortiz was demoted to the bullpen after he followed up five straight quality starts with five straight non-quality starts. He was replaced by Kevin Slowey, who followed up his first quality start with a non-quality start last week. His 4.09 ERA looks fine, but five strikeouts in eleven innings means he’s not missing many bats. In fact that strikeout rate is eerily similar to Ortiz’s.

That leaves one card left to trump the AL Central. Matt Garza continues to toil in Rochester, putting up numbers less impressive than Slowey or Baker, but he’s still considered the pitcher with the highest upside. With the struggles of some other members of the pitching staff, it would be shocking if he didn’t get his (second, by the way) chance by the All-Star break. Twins fans will be crossing their fingers, hoping that Garza can do what the rest of the minor leaguers have not yet done – provide a needed boost.

Slumpin'

It’s getting a little redundant, this talk about the offense not working. But there’s no escaping that the June swoon the Twins are in right now is mostly related to the offense, and when you look at each players numbers, that’s the obvious problem.

NOBODY is hitting right now. That’s not an exaggeration. The only regular who has been productive offensively in the month of June is Jason Kubel, and he’s day-to-day with a strained knee. As a team, the Twins are hitting .216 in the month of June, and that includes facing the Nationals’ quadruple-A rotation.

Oh, heck, if we’re gonna wallow in this thing, we might as well go all the way. This team’s OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) is 600. For those of you not familiar with OPS, I tried to find a comparable bad ex-Twin with an OPS of 600 – and couldn’t find one. Luis Rivas? His career OPS is 690. Denny Hocking? Career OPS of 654. Last year Tony Batista had an OPS of 691 when the Twins released him. Even Juan Castro has a career OPS of 694. That’s where we’re at right now – the Twins lineup is hitting much worse than a lineup full of Juan Castros. Heck, they might be worse than a lineup full of Fidel Castros.

In fact, you can’t find many Twins who are individually outhitting Castro’s 694 benchmark thsi month. There are, in fact, just four, and two of them aren’t regulars (Lew Ford and Luis Rodriguez). Besides Kubel, only Michael Cuddyer (just a 710 OPS, .233 BA, 1 HR) has been better than Castro-phic. As for the rest of the team…

• Luis Castillo is hitting .294 in June, but is still getting on-base less than the league average because he’s drawn only one walk (versus four strikeouts)
• Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau, who have been as good a twosome as there was in the American league, are hitting .183 combined this month. Each also has one home run, but no doubles.
• After hitting .239 in April, and .243 in May, we expected Jason Bartlett to get on track in June. Instead, he’s jumped them, hitting just .143 so far this month.
• And he’s STILL out-hitting Nick Punto, whose batting just .130.
• And they’re both out-producing each of the Twins catchers. Mike Redmond did a decent impression of Joe Mauer in the month of May, but has hit just .182 in June, with just one walk, no extra-base hits, and only one RBI. Mauer returned to the lineup this weekend, and had one hit and zero walks in his nine plate appearances.

So, at least they’re being consistent.

For several weeks Twins fans have lobbied for adding a significant bat to the lineup, but it’s fair to say that the futility we’ve seen this month goes far beyond that. This is just an offensive slump, one that is affecting the whole team.

On Spackling

Last year, June’s west coast road trip cemented management’s perception that team speed needed to be upgraded. Tony Batista and Juan Castro were ditched, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett were handed jobs, and the team rolled through September. So what change needs to be made this year?

Seeing as they scored eight runs in the first five games of their road trip, the easy answer is ‘offense’ but a better answer is ‘depth’. The issue of the Twins offensive depth was first raised in spring training, as manager Ron Gardenhire lamented the lack of a backup infielder. When the season started the team carried a third catcher and a twelfth pitcher, not so much because they needed them, but because there weren’t much better options.

Then came the injuries. When Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo went down, a merry-go-round of designated hitters was plugged in. The lack of depth meant that lesser injuries to Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo, and Michael Cuddyer impacted the offense. And note that none of them were put on the disabled list because there was nobody worthwhile to use on the roster spot. As soon as Cuddyer returned, Joe Mauer was shut down, so Gardenhire has spent the last four weeks spackling over several holes in his lineup card as best he can.

The result is a lineup full of players who are being overexposed. This team is trying to get by at third base with Punto’s on-base skills and glove. They’re trying to let Bartlett overcome his neck injuries and sophomore slump. They’re trying to get Jason Kubel to battle back to his promising past. And they’re trying to fill White’s DH spot with a hodge-podge of slumping back-up position players. Oh, and they’ve been trying to do it while their best pure hitter is out of the lineup. It’s too much. It can’t be done.

The blame falls at the feet of GM Terry Ryan. Ryan has done an exceptional job in the past of stocking the high minors with decent replacements, like Dustan Mohr, Bobby Kielty, and Buck Buchanan. And when he has needed to go outside the organization, scouting has helped provide productive veterans like Jose Offerman and Chris Gomez. In retrospect, depth was one of the differentiating factors between the Twins and a White Sox team that was deemed more talented.

This offseason, those pieces weren’t put in place. Cirillo was signed to help out at both designated hitter and third base, and he hasn’t helped at either one, and the Twins need help at both. The only move to bolster the middle infield was to nab Alejandro Machado in the Rule V draft, and he’ll be injured the whole season. The right-handed pop of the bench options are either hurt (Ken Harvey) or slumping (Matt LeCroy) and the Twins passed on signing any left-handed options.

The task at hand falls at Ryan’s feet, too. With the news that White has again been shut down, the Twins will likely be short at least one designated hitter for the remainder of the year. That’s a position that provides a lot of flexibility for deal-making. What’s more, the Twins farm system is fairly lush with starting pitching, a valuable asset. The only possible reason to wait is if Ryan isn’t sure the Twins will be buyers at the trade deadline.

Are there any options? Well, there are at least five teams that can reasonably be expected to be looking towards 2008 already. One of them is visiting this weekend. Their best hitter this year is Dmitri Young, the right-handed slugging ex-Tiger, who is signed for one year at $500,000. And did I mention that this year’s Nationals starting rotation was filled reality-show style, inviting 50 guys to camp and taking the top five finishers? (I can hardly wait until they leak the footage of the threesome in the hot tub.)

Ryan is talking a lot about how the Twins don’t necessarily need to add power, they just need solid batters. He’s probably right, but there aren’t enough of those batters on the roster right now, and he’s on the hook for getting them. Hopefully, for the second year in a row, a gut-wrenching West Coast road trip will drive this organization to make some needed changes.

One More Damn Bat (II)

What the hell is it about this team and West Coast Road trips in June? Last year it proved to be the final straw before wholesale changes were made to the left side of the infield. This year, the minor league callups have mostly already happened, but would anyone be shocked if the recent offensive mis-, er, display prompted the Twins to make some moves to bolster the offense?

So let's continue yesterday's research on the bats the Twins could/should chase from seven non-contending teams. We'll continue working our way up the ladder from worst record to best...

Cincinatti Reds (22-36)
The Reds have lately been called the National League Twins because of their penchant for picking up former Twins players, but they really bare a scary resemblance to the Rangers. Fifth best offense in their league, but the worst pitching, just like the Rangers. One difference is that their starting pitching isn't nearly as bad as the Rangers, but they also don't have a staff ace, either. Or at least, not yet. They hope to gain one this weekend when uber-pitching prospect Homer Bailey makes his major league debut on Friday.

Instead, they need bullpen help. They're desperate enough to be pining for the return of recovering 36-year-old Eddie Guardado. Not that I don't pine for Eddie and ... oh, god, what was that song? How can I not remember that song? I'm a bad fan, a very bad fan. Anyway, they need bullpen help, which the Twins really aren't in a position to provide, but there might be a couple of young pitchers that could interest the Reds.

They're also similar to the Rangers in that they could make some big names available, arguably too big. Ken Griffey Jr. has been in all kinds of rumors with the emergence of Josh Hamilton, but I think he would have veto rights for a deal because of his 10 and 5 status. You might think that his contract would get in the way, but he's only signed through 2008, it's at $12.5 M per season, and the payments are deferred at a low interest rate, so it's real value could be closer to $10 million.

Beyond the financial stuff, we all know about his injury history, but he's healthy this year and would be playing DH in the dome. And if Torii leaves next year, he could replace him in CF for a good chunk of the time. He's a veteran, and we know how the Twins love veterans. Unfortunately, he also bats left-handed, which is a significant disadvantage for this team. A trade for Griffey certainly has it's flaws, but it has enough things right with it that it's hard to dismiss it.

I should touch on two other names that have been talked about. I talked about Edwin Encarnacion a couple of weeks ago, and John Sharkey also mentioned him on GameDay's Writer's Blog recently. Since those entries, Encarnacion has been called up from AAA and hitting the cover off the ball. He won't be available, if he ever was.

The other big name that will be mentioned is slugger Adam Dunn. The problem with acqiring Dunn is his contract. If he's traded before 2008, he can opt out of the last year of that contract, which is also 2008. So any trade of him this year means he'll likely turn into a free agent, which limits what he's worth in a trade. The Reds aren't going to trade him for Scott Baker, and the Twins aren't going to trade away anyone more significant that for two months of Adam Dunn. (He's also left-handed and strikes out a lot, which doesn't make him a great fit for this team.)

It's late, and I really need to get some sleep this week. I meant to touch on a player that will undoubtedly be available, is a right-handed slugger, is even cheap and will be visiting us this weekend. You almost have to wonder why he isn't on this team already. You'll need to come back tomorrow as we explore the possibilities of adding Dmitri Young to the roster.

One More Damn Bat

Sometimes you want to write, and sometimes you want to research something, and just see who wants to go along for the ride.

Yesterday I mentioned that just about anyway you slice it, the Twins are going to need one more productive bat if they can't count on Rondell White. And, frankly, they can't. Even if he gets healthy, you don't want your team's future resting on his fragile hamstrings. So let's see what might be out there for the trade deadline.

Here's the ground rules - for now, we'll limit ourselves to the team which look like they're clearly out of this thing, which means only seven teams, and one of them is questionable. By the end of the month, there could be a lot more, but it's not like I got a lot of time tonight. And we'll look for the player on that team which seems like the best fit for the Twins AND who might be available in a trade. That player can be just about any position, because the Twins need a designated hitter.

Starting with the worst record in the majors and working our way upwards....

Texas Rangers (20-37)
Wow, did that season go to hell in a hurry. Texas leads the American League in runs allowed, and it isn't hard to find the blame - there isn't a starting pitcher with an ERA less than 6.28, which is like having an entire pitching staff of Sidney Ponson's, only without the cool curly mullets. They were supposed to have some young talent in Brandon McCarthy, Robinson Tejeda, and Brandon Loe, but they've all been terrible, and behind them the cupboard is bare. So the Twins could probably dig up a pitcher or two the Rangers might like, but it will either need to be someone proven (like Bonser) or with a very high upside (like Matt Garza), especially if they were going to move a big name.

And big names they gots. In fact, they probably have the biggest name that will be bandied about at the deadline. Mark Teixeira is 27 years old, has average 35 home runs and 112 RBI over his four-year big-league career, and is a switch-hitter to boot. When Gardy goes to bed at night, this is the guy he dreams about batting between Mauer and Morneau.

However, his long-term deal with the Rangers ends this year, so his salary for 2008 will be determined by arbitration. And he'll be a free agent in 2009. Oh, and his agent is Luci - er, I mean Scott Boras. Which means he'll squeeze about $15 million out of whatever team he plays for next year and be hopelessly out of the Twins comfort level in 2009. The Twins would also need to figure out how to handle moving Teixeira or Morneau from first base to designated hitter. (And did I mention that Teixeira has won two gold gloves?)

The Twins would not be alone in their desire to get him, so get visions of sending Silva or Baker out of your head. It's going to take Bonser or Garza. Would you do it?

Kansas City (21-37)
Talk about going out on a low note - I picked the wrong team to cover last tonight, because there just isn't much here. Mike Sweeney is in the last year of his contract, but he's also not hitting much better than Jason Kubel, who I'm starting to believe is personally taunting me everytime he starts an at-bat with two strikes. So Sweeney might be an addition, in the same way that Phil Nevin was an addition - call it "new math".

Other names? Someone will throw out Mark Teahan's name because Alex Gordon was supposed to come up to the majors and take over third base for a generation, except he hasn't, and Teahan is hitting and cheap, which is the kind of guy the Royals need. I openly pined for Ryan Shealy last year because he was cheap, right-handed power, but while the Rockies might not value that, the Royals do. He'll stay there, and if he doesn't the Royals won't tempt fate by sending him to the Twins.

And while we're pointing that out, the Twins will also be hesitant to send the Royals anything that that club could use in the future. Like I said, we're ending with a whimper today.

Tomorrow I hope to be back with some other names from the next three teams on the list. Hope to see you then...

Hostility, Slowey and One More Damn Bat

Hostility
Back when I was living in Philly one of the local stories had to do with Hostility. It seems some professor had established a sliding scale of hostility metrics, and used them to evaluate cities from the most hostile to the least hostile. To nearly nobody's surprise, The City of Brotherly Love topped the list.

But what was interesting was the various reactions of people. Most were in the vein of The Voice of Reason, who was pleased to hear that they had beat New York at something (NYC finished #2, btw). I consider the most brilliant reaction to be from some random city council member, who immediately said something like "Yeah? Well I'd like that pencil-necked geek to come here and say that to my face!"

But the reaction that made it all come back to me this weekend was from the mayor, Ed Rendell, who suggested that maybe this guy just happened to study the city in the midst of a Phillies losing streak. Rendell knew that Philly's mood swings with the results of her teams. I've noticed a similar reaction in Minnesota, but only on Mondays in the fall.

Not any more. It's possible I'm projecting, but scoring five runs in three games changed the mood of this city a little. There was a little more crabbiness than usual, and on Monday, I expect to hear more than my usual share of gloom and doom. Hell, I've been snippy all weekend.

Except now. Ironically, this hostility realization may be what is lifting my spirits. Turning into a baseball town is a slow and painful process, made moreso by the habits we've developed in the past. But this is another sign that it's coming. And if this weekend happens to be the one in which a pencil-necked hostility analyzer visits, I'll accept his verdict proudly.

Kevin Slowey
I suppose the big news this weekend was that Kevin Slowey pitched well in his debut on Friday night. Slowey is half-jokingly being referred to as "this year's Liriano", which, of course, he isn't. Nobody is. Though I'm hoping that once Matt Garza gets his head on straight, he might be close.

But whether Slowey is a savior or not, he could be a big part of this season, not to mention several other seasons, and his pitching on Friday is likely going to draw some rave reviews. I was hoping to give some myself, and I'll admit I had some hopes.

My review will be more measured. Slowey looked good, not great. Now, there are a couple of factors, that and optimist might point out that he overcame. First, he faced a lot of left-handed hitters with the Athletics. Second, the Athletics traditionally emphasize plate discipline, and a guy who works the edges of the zone may be more susceptible to being hit than a fireballer against that team.

On the other hand, the Athletics aren't a great offensive team. Though the have recently added some healthier left-handed bats, they're also dead-last in the American League in OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Slowey definitely had trouble putting batters away, which lead to a high pitch count and an exit after the sixth (and one might argue that he probaby should have left after the fifth). Slowey, in short, was less dominant than his box score might suggest.

Does one expect a 23-year-old who was being drafted two years ago this week to be dominant? Probably not. But, of course, that point should probably have been raised over the last two months as we pined for him to toe the rubber in the majors. Slowey looked good, and hopefully has a solid major league career ahead of him. But he didn't look like a magic bullet. Anyone suggesting that the Twins have several of those if only they would play them may want to reevaluate that expectation.

One Bat Short
Of course, after a miserable weekend devoid of runs, it isn't clear that the pitching is what needs the magic bullet anyways. When Jeff Cirillo is batting #2 versus a right-handed pitcher, it's become pretty clear that this lineup is at least one bat short. With Jason Kubel (home run not withstanding) still scuffling, and no legitimate designated hitter, the return of Chairman Mauer (supposedly next weekend) will probably still leave them a bat short. And the news yesterday from Terry Ryan that Rondell White's situation hasn't changed may well mean that shortage is going to continue for the immediate future.

So what to do? Well, sleep on it, I suppose, because it's late, and it's not like I have all the answers. But I'm sure I will tomorrow (and the topic will likely stay valid, he says hostilely) so stop by and we'll see what we can come up with.

Results

This blog, I freely admit, was fueled in large part on disgust for most of its first year. I was disgusted by the gloss that accompanied most local baseball coverage, the lack of analysis, the apathy towards detail. The coverage focused more on a story than the beauty of the details of the game. That drove me crazy. The beauty of the details of the game WERE the story. Details could be entertaining.

That is no longer an issue. First of all, the dailies coverage has improved about 400% over their coverage in 2002. But mostly, there is just a ton of independent coverage. Over at MNGameDay.com, you can find several dozen takes every day on almost any conceivable issue. It used to be that the Twins could sign a lower-tier free agent and there wouldn’t even be a not in the paper. Now, Seth will write 500 words on it, and he’ll only be the first of a half dozen to document and give me the history of this guy. And, as I wrote last Friday, there’s been a revolution around entertaining baseball writing too, especially with the Twins.

Instead, I now find myself being annoyed by the same people I originally felt were leading the baseball writing revolution. Too often, the sabremetric crowd seems to be forgetting the golden rule of true baseball research. It isn’t about "Bunting is stupid". It isn’t TINSTAAPP (“There is no such thing as a pitching prospect.”) It isn’t even “OBP is God”. It simply is: “There is ALWAYS something more we can learn about this beautiful game.” Which is a fine rule, until you examine it closely enough to come across its logical corrolary: "There is a hell of a lot we don't know, or are just plain wrong about."

That's an especially hard corollary for a group that finds itself evangelizing as the sabremetric crowd. For a while, that evangelizing was seen as nearly a moral imperative, but it turns out that evangelizing requires more than a great truth, it involves compelling rhetoric. It also means staying on message, even if the message becomes a two-dimensional version of a mutli-dimensional truth.

The latest example of all this that is driving me nuts is the coverage of the Twins starting rotation. The views aren't driven by analysis, they're driven by philosophy. And this is by someone who wrote back in February that signing all of Silva, Ponson and Ortiz was probably a mistake. But what we want to be true isn't necessarily be true, so let's analyze some of the statements:

Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey and Matt Garza were all ready to fill three spots in the rotation.

Um, really? Which one of these guys, exactly has shown you that so far? Perkins has been mediocre as a bullpen guy. Baker version 3.0 is doing a pretty good impression of Baker 2.0. Garza continues to struggle with control of anything off-speed. And Slowey has less than a year of experience in AAA. Hell, just a couple of weeks ago (six weeks into the season, we were worried that even Boof Bonser might be a problem.

Listen, I'm as jazzed about the 2008 rotation as anyone, but can you blame the Twins for not trusting these guys for 2007 last December? And has anyone done anything to to change your mind about them?

The Twins could've spent the $8+ million the spent on Carley Portiz to improve their team in a better way.

Let's not forget that more than 1/2 of that money was spend on Carlos Silva, who has given up three runs or less in eight of his ten starts. It's also worth noting the order in which they signed these guys, because Ortiz was the first one they had to make a decision on. With three holes in the starting rotation and an unknown offseason looming, the Twins would've taken an enormous risk by not signing him.

But most of all, the key here isn't the $8 million - it's the fact that the Twins only needed to commit one year to these guys. Finding an impact player that will sign a one-year contract means one of two things - they're old or they're unhealthy. Don't believe me? Check out the top one year contracts from this offseason:

Pos Player              Signed By    Age Dollars
SP Andy Pettitte, SP         NY Yankees    34 $16,000,000
LF Barry Bonds, LF           San Francisco 42 $16,000,000
SP Tom Glavine, SP           NY Mets       40 $10,500,000
SP Greg Maddux, SP           San Diego     40 $10,000,000
DH Mike Piazza, DH           Oakland       38 $8,500,000
RF Moises Alou, RF NY        Mets          40 $8,500,000
SP Randy Wolf, SP            LA Dodgers    30 $8,000,000
LF Luis Gonzalez, LF         LA Dodgers    39 $7,350,000
1B Shea Hillenbrand, 1B      LA Angels     31 $6,500,000
RP Eric Gagne, RP            Texas         31 $6,000,000
CF Kenny Lofton, CF          Texas         39 $6,000,000
RF Jose Guillen, RF          Seattle       30 $5,500,000
3B Pedro Feliz, 3B           San Francisco 31 $5,100,000
RP Octavio Dotel, RP         Kansas City   33 $5,000,000
RP Keith Foulke, RP          Cleveland     34 $5,000,000
RP Joe Borowski, RP          Cleveland     35 $4,250,000
SP Joel Pineiro, SP          Boston        28 $4,000,000
SP Kip Wells, SP             St. Louis     29 $4,000,000
1B Sean Casey, 1B            Detroit       32 $4,000,000
2B Jose Valentin, 2B         NY Mets       37 $3,800,000
RP LaTroy Hawkins, RP        Colorado      34 $3,500,000
RP Rbrto Hernandez, RP       Cleveland     42 $3,500,000
2B Marcus Giles, 2B          San Diego     28 $3,200,000
LF Rondell White, LF         Minnesota     34 $2,750,000

So which of the names above do you think would turn the Twins offense around?
- I suppose a case could be made for Piazza, though when a guy is out for two months because he dove back to first base, it isn't a great isng.
- Alou's nagging injuries mean he has about as many at-bats as Joe Mauer right now.
- It's doubtful, given the choice, that Gonzalez would leave the West Coast.
- Guillen is a head case, was terrible last year and started slow this year.
- Feliz's career on-base percentage is .289. Blink. Blink.

The Twins chose to make sure they had plenty of depth, and frankly, that looks like a pretty good idea right about now. It's allowed them to move underperforming starters to a depleted bullpen. It's given them a second lefty in the bullpen when their primary left-hander faltered. It's allowed them to give some of their better prospects some extra time in the minors to work on aspects they'll need to master to be successful at the major league level. And, cynically, it's saved them several million dollars in future salaries, by delaying arbitration and free agency.

There are all kinds of small moves that I second-guessed, and I've been right about as often as I was wrong. So, frankly, have the Twins. But both of us will evaluate them based on the results, not on the philosophy. It would be nice if others would join us.

Sorry about the Hiatus

Lots to talk about, but the June issue of GameDay needs to get out the door tomorrow. For now, I hope the editorial below will reward you somewhat for stopping by, and we'll get back to the Twins tomorrow.
John

Closing the Book

Sometime next month, the major league home run record will likely be broken. It will invite considerable media coverage, but not the kind that usually accompanies a historic milestone. This coverage will be fueled by controversy, and judging by the preliminary angles, mostly negative. And one word will be repeated over and over: cheater.

It will be applied to Barry Bonds, who has become Sarah Good in professional sports’ latest witch hunt. We know that Barry Bonds cheated. He’s admitted as much, though he says he did so unknowingly. But cheating, and lying about it, isn’t unusual in baseball’s history. Corked bats, spit balls, rain delay tactics and even Metrodome air-conditioning vents – all have been used with little more acknowledgement than a wink.

Using steroids is somehow different (though I would challenge this inconsistency as well). It has ignited the white-hot zealots’ flames and Major League Baseball has caved to every demand. That’s fine concerning the implementation of long overdue testing procedures or strict penalties. But the heat has kept MLB from taking any responsibility. For the record, MLB didn’t have a policy against steroids, didn’t have a test for them, and didn’t have any enforcement in place. Taking steroids was slightly more legal than a catcher blocking the plate, which at least is technically against the rules, even if it isn’t enforced.

Rather than admit this oversight and turn the page, MLB used the crisis to blame players, which had the pleasant side effect of vilifying the players’ union. Bonds is at the top of the wanted list, so instead of celebrating a milestone, we’re left to debate whether the commissioner of baseball should attend.

Damn right he should attend. It was on his watch that the problem flourished and it was on his watch that owners and players made millions of dollars while looking the other way. Bud Selig should hand the home run ball to Bonds, and use the post-game attention to say what we all know:

• The fault lies with the owners and commissioner as much as it does with any player.
• The records for this jaded era will stand, just like they did for other jaded eras, like when African-Americans weren’t allowed to compete.
• MLB has implemented the most comprehensive and strict system in professional sports.
• And most importantly, let’s all get on with our lives.