On Mariners and Rotting Fish

As the Mariners roll into town today, we're reminded that sometimes the cliche about a fish stinking from the head down is accurate. And it's increasingly looking like the Twins biggest mistake at the trade deadline was targeting players on the Mariners as trade targets.

The Mariners management team is a mess. They fired their GM in July and fired their coach three days later. They replaced them both but haven't removed the interim tags from either. And as the trade deadline approached, and with a roster full of flotsam, they traded a grand total of one player - left-handed reliever Arthur Rhodes.

Among the bevy of teams they didn't trade with are the Twins. Prior to the deadline we heard that the Twins had talked to the Mariners about Adrian Beltre. Then, yesterday, Joe Christensen reported that the Twins claimed both Raul Ibanez and Jarrod Washburn, but weren't able to make a deal with the Mariners for either one.

You can think of Ibanez as being similar to Michael Cuddyer, except that he's a free agent at the end of the year. Which, for the rebuilding Mariners, means he's worth the compensatory draft picks they're likely to receive when he walks. That, at least, has some value.

But Washburn is another story. Washburn is under contract for next year, and he'll be paid $10.35 million. This for a guy with a 5-12 record and a 4.58 ERA in one of the pitching-friendliest ballparks in the majors. The Mariners should not only be willing to trade him for a warm bucket of spit, they should pay several million dollars to make it happen. If they were truly lucky enough to get the Twins to claim him on waivers, it's inconceivable that they didn't stick the Twins with that loadstone of a contract.

But even more stunning? Christensen's note that the Mariners asked for one of the Twins young starters in return for Washburn.

"In Washburn’s case, it sounds like the Twins did indeed win the claim and had
extensive talks with the Mariners. The Twins were willing to take on Washburn’s
contract, and Seattle could have dumped it on them. But the Mariners also wanted
the Twins to throw in one of their current starters. "

Seriously? So the Mariners management team wanted, in return for Washburn, a better starting pitcher who ALSO is $10 million cheaper next year? I should try that. How about I swap cars with Carl Pohlad AND he write me a $10 million check to do so. Savvy offer, that.

I can only imagine Bill Smith's reaction. I suspect it started with him staring at the cell phone speaker quizically. Followed by stammering "That's a, um, creative deal. But I think we'll pass."

(long pause)

"Is there anyone else there I can talk to?"

Real and Fabulous

“By the way, they’re real. And they’re FABULOUS.”
- from Seinfeld

Even for Twins fans, it’s been hard to accept. We find our team exceeding preseason expectations and solidly thumping the division favorites. And then we look at the standings and see the White Sox are in first place? Surely they (and not us) are an anomaly, right? After all, isn’t this the completely dysfunctional club that imploded last year for just 72 wins? We shouldn’t need to worry about them for another 90 years or so, right? And Bonnes wouldn't dream of adding a fifth straight question to this paragraph, would he?

Well, the bad news is that they’re real. If the four game sweep last month (where the Twins were outscored 40-15) didn’t convince you, maybe this will: they’ve outscored their opponents by 88 runs. That’s the third best mark in the majors, ahead of the Angels, the Devil Rays, the Yankees and even our Twins (+23).

So what changed from last year? It’s been a mixture, but the short answer is that General Manager Kenny Williams brought in some young talent that has absolutely exploded.

And that’s the REALLY bad news. Because they’re likely going to be real for several years to come.

The most interesting of that talent is on the pitching side, because Williams didn’t bring them in this year. Both John Danks and Gavin Floyd were acquired from other organizations before last season, and both spent last season struggling. And now both of them have ERAs under 3.50 and are the core of the White Sox starting rotation.

On the offensive side, the White Sox traded for an outfielder from the Diamondbacks who had batted just .214 last year. They picked up Carlos Quentin despite being damaged goods; he underwent shoulder surgery in October. Interestingly, a week before that trade the Pioneer Press reported that Quentin’s right-handed bat had been mentioned in trade talks with the Twins for Matt Garza. We might well have ended up with him instead of Delmon Young. Since getting his shoulder repaired, the 25-year-old is hitting .279 and slugging .550 with 27 home runs and 78 RBI. Imagine THAT hitting behind Justin Morneau.

An even stranger pickup happened in January, when the White Sox handed Alexei Ramirez a four-year, $4.75 million contract after he defected from Cuba. (Is this a great country, or what?) Ramirez struggled early, hitting just .114 at the beginning of May. Just how hot has he been since? Hot enough to raise that batting average all the way to .315 in less than 3 months. He’s also just 26 years old, and the Sox aren’t going to need to go to arbitration with him until 2012. His only flaw might be his glove at second base.

These guys have joined some of the White Sox we know and love (to hate) who are also having huge years. The White Sox spent most of last season debating whether they should trade or sign Mark Buehrle. They chose to sign him, and he’s on pace for his eighth straight season of throwing 200+ innings. Many Sox fans felt like Jermaine Dye was robbed of the MVP award two years ago by Morneau, and they’ll likely get a chance to kvetch again given his .314 batting average, 24 HR and 64 RBI. AJ Pierzynski is hitting .288 with a little power and plenty of attitude. And Jim Thome, after struggling earlier in the year, has hit 19 home runs, driven in 59 RBI, and is getting on base at a .383 clip.

Finally, the White Sox bullpen has been formidable this year, too. Their collective ERA is just 3.15, which is good for fourth in the major leagues. But lately there have been some concerns. Closer Bobby Jenks has just returned from about a month off with a sore back, and has been effective, but not dominant. Set-up man Scott Linebrink is out with a shoulder injury, and Matt Thornton was unavailable for times last week because of a sore back. In their absence the Sox relied on Octavio Dotel whose wildness can be deadly to both teams on the field. We’ll probably also see DJ Carrasco, a 31-year-old who has been effective this year at both AAA and the majors. Still, if there’s one advantage to facing the White Sox right now, it’s that the Twins might get to test the Sox’ bullpen depth.

Twins Takes
That four game sweep the Twins suffered at the hands of the White Sox is a lasting memory, and you can be forgiven if you think that the White Sox have manhandled the Twins all season. But prior to that series, do you know what the Twins record was versus the White Sox this year?

It was 4 wins and 3 losses.

BTW, if any of you are going to the Twins game on Wednesday, be sure to get there early and watch the pregame festivities. I'll be throwing out the first pitch.

Shopping List: Right-handed Third Basemen

Just ten more rumor-mongering days until the trade deadline. If the Twins truly scribbled a right-handed third baseman at the top of Santa's list, it's nice to know he has some options beyond the overpriced Adrian Beltre. Let's see what we come up with and rank them in terms of likeliness. But first, the rules:

1. The player needs to be a third baseman.
2. The player needs to bat right-handed.
3. The player needs to be on a struggling team.

#4 Garret Atkins - Colorado Rockies
At first glance, he looks like the cream of the crop, and perhaps a better acquisition than Adrian Beltre. He's 28, he's hitting .305 with 14 home runs, and he won't be a free agent until after the new ballpark opens. But there are two issues.

First, it isn't clear the Rockies want to trade him. There were plenty of rumors about him being available (mostly to the Indians) early in the season. But that seems to have changed because he's having a great year and his supposed replacement, Ian Stewart, is only hitting .238 while the Rockies try him out at second base. (Oh, and forget about Stewart. He bats left-handed). Plus, the Rockies, despite being dismal, are only six games back in the even more dismal NL West.

And the second issue is that Atkins hasn't been the same player away from Coors (Is it still called that? I don't care. I'm going with it.) Field. Over the last three years he's posted a 948 OPS in Coors and a 792 OPS at other ballparks. This year those differences are even more pronounced. So to acquire Atkins, the Twins would need to dig deep, and there are enough doubts about him that I can't picture them doing that.

#3 Kevin Kouzmanoff - San Diego Padres
Kouzmanoff appears to be the kind of guy that is only rarely available. He's cheap (won't be eligible for arbitration until 2010), he can hit(.276 with 12 home runs), and most importantly for the Twins, he brings back the tradition of having a long name with a "z" on the lineup card every day. He's only available because the Padres have another young stud prospect third baseman named Chase Headley that Kouzmanoff is blocking.

Also, the teams match up fairly well. Just yesterday Ken Rosenthal reported that the Padres would conceivably trade him for a young outfielder. And if Cuddyer gets healthy you could argue that the Twins have one too many of those. You could also argue that the Padres could use some young pitching with both Greg Maddux and Randy Wolfe on the roster.

The concerns? Well, just what is Kevin Kouzmanoff? He's 26, so he's not young. He's brutalized left-handed pitchers so far, slugging over .500 for his career. But he hasn't hit or even got on-base enough versus right-handers (just a .309 career OBP), and he now has over 640 at-bats against them. That doesn't seem like a guy you turn over third base to full-time, let alone trade Carlos Gomez or Denard Span for. And if you're going to acquire a guy to platoon at third base with Buscher, why not go with the devil you know....

#2 Matt Macri - Rochester Red Wings
A funny thing happens when you pull up the stats of all MLB third basemen and sort in descending order by OPS. Matt Macri ends up 5th on that list. Macri fits our criteria and he's in the organization, and he's 26 years old, and he hit .409 with a 1000 OPS vs. left-handers over 22 at-bats during his June call-up.

Strangely, that dominance versus southpaws has been completely absent at Rochester this year. There, he's hitting just .219, and has a much better average against right-handed batters. Both numbers seem like anomolies, but I can't tell you what the actual figure is likely to be.

If a trade is not made, it will be interesting to see if Ron Gardenhire would rather have Lamb as a left-handed pinch-hitter or Macri as a right-handed platoon at third base. I suspect he would pick Macri, mostly because he hates benching a veteran like Lamb, and would just as soon release him. But I'm not sure that would be the right call.

#1 Casey Blake - Cleveland Indians
We always talk about how interdivisional trades are rare, but this might be the kind that could make sense. The Indians aren't going anywhere, and Blake will be a free agent at the end of the year. If anyone would balk at a trade, it would likely be the Twins, for fear that the player they lost to the Indians would come back to bite them several times every year. You know, kind of like Casey Blake has.

Of the players on this list, Blake is the most seamless fit. He doesn't need to be much more than a platoon player, so the Twins can continue to use Buscher. He also has some positional flexibility, even playing shortstop once this year. And he's socking lefties silly. He's hitting .323 against them this year, and slugging over .500, and while the batting average doesn't match his track record, the slugging does. Over the last three years he's slugged .509 versus left-handers in 411 at-bats.

Odds are, someone is going to end up with Blake on the trade deadline. Considering how good a fit he is, I'll be a little suprised if that team ends up not being the Twins.

Distractable

I'm personally of the opinion that rumors about the Twins being interested in Adrian Beltre are a red herring, meant to distract us and the league while they search for a dominant eighth inning arm. But (and The Voice of Reason will certainly back me up on this) I am absolutely emminently distractable. I am the definition of Short Attention Span Theater.

Which, by the way, nobody mentions, but was fantsatic. Is also launched Jon Stewart's career, and rightly so, because that is not the kind of show that just anyone can pull off. And why does MTV get blasted for no longer having videos, but Comedy Central gets off scott-free for no longer having anything liks SAST?

See what I mean? Absolutely, emminently, distractable.

Adrian Beltre
So let's start with the rumur du jour, er, week. I gotta say, assuming there is at least a little truth to it, this rumor should be encouraging as hell to Twins fans. This sort of rumor was in short supply the last couple years, and it's further evidence that Bill Smith isn't afraid to spend some money and take some risks. Terry Ryan got a bum rap in that regard for the most part, but Smith has made some bold and creative moves. Plus, it's comforting to see that the extra money that the team didn't spend on free agents might be available for a mid-season pickup, and isn't sunk into paying overruns at the new ballpark.

Beltre hasn't been the superstar the Mariners expected when they threw $64 million at him in 2005. That probably shouldn't be a surprise, because prior to 2004, Beltre was the poster boy for the young, incredibly talented but dissappointing athelete. Then came 2004, Beltre's contract year, in which he suddenly showed some plate discipline and slugged .629 (blink. blink.), earning him a second place finish in the National League MVP voting. He hasn't shown that discipline since. Nor has he slugged over .500.

You might think that the Mariners would be looking to jettison a contract like that, just like they did with Richie Sexson. But salaries have rocketed upwards since 2004, so that $12 million a year he makes per year is easier to justify, especially with third base being a thin position. Add in his defense (he won a gold glove last year), his age (he's only 29 years old), and the fact that 2009 would also be a contract year like 2004 was, and he starts to make more sense.

The Package
Of course, the $12 million question is what you give up for him. La Velle E Neal suggested that the price might be similar to what the Athletics recently received for Joe Blanton, which he interprets as being equivalent to one of the Twins young starters and some other prospects.

I'm not sure how he draws that comparison. Two of the players are prospects only in a nominal sense. Josh Outman is a Double-A pitcher who has already been switched to the bullpen. And Matt Spencer is an outfielder in High A ball whose career trajectory is aimed towards being a decent left-handed fourth outfielder for someone's bench.

And the "prize" player the Athletics received? Second baseman Adrian Cardnenas is certainly a prospect, but he is only in High-A ball. Last year he ranked #76 on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list with a note that his ETA to the majors was 2010. For comparison purposes, Deolis Guerrara, the 18-year-old pitcher the Twins received as the fourth player in the Johan Santana trade, was listed as #35 on the same list with the same ETA.

I'm pretty sure that if Bill Smith can have Beltre for Guerrera and a couple of the Twins nominal prospects, that deal would already be done.

Brian Buscher
You can bet that the package the Twins offered Seattle included Brian Buscher, because there is no longer room on this team for Buscher if the trade is made. Beltre isn't a platoon player, and his contract goes through 2010, by which time Buscher is almost 29 years old, which is, well, even older than Brian Buscher is now, which is saying something.

The Mariners probably don't have much interest in Buscher. Buscher might be attractive to some teams, but the Mariners seem to be pushing Matt Tuiasosopo fairly quickly. He's just 22 years old and has graduated to AAA this year, and his .256 batting average disguises that he does some good things in terms of getting on base and having a little power.

One the one hand, that looks to me like someone they might like to season a bit before throwing onto the major league grill. They could afford that luxury with soemone like Buscher on the roster, especially because Buscher is left-handed and could allow Tuiasosopo some platoon time at the beginning of his major league career. Of course, the same could be said for holding onto Beltre for another year. Or for signing a low-end free agent to provide an insurance policy at third base for 2009. Now that Bill Bavasi is gone, I suspect they have thought of those options.

So the Twins ideal package probably isn't something the Mariners are interested in. But I'd be shocked if the Twins didn't have a combination of minor leaguers that could entice the Mariners to save themselves the $16 million that Beltre is owed for the remainder of his contract. How far the Twins are willing to go is likely dependent on their other options, and there are some, and a few might even be a better fit than Beltre.

Which, strangely enough, is what this entry was supposed to be about. Instead, it's been about Beltre and the Athletics trade. See what I mean about distractable?

(But that means that we get to research some of the other options later this week. Yeay. See you then.)

Choosing to Believe

We spend a lot of time talking about run differential and PECOTA and small-sample sizes and what not. Instead, today, as we finish our break, let’s try stripping away the expectations and the back stories and see where we’re at:

We’ve played 95 games. That’s longer than a full season for most sports. It includes 300+ at-bats for starting hitters and 100+ innings for solid starting pitchers. And here’s how many wins each of the above winning teams in the American League have right now:

57 - LA Angels
57 - Boston
55 - Tampa Bay
54 - Chicago Sox
53 - Minnesota
51 - Oakland
50 - NY Yankees
50 - Texas

Now, can you tell me with any level of assurance which four of those teams are going to come out on top over the next 67 games? Of course you can’t. Nobody can. These teams are too close. We’re talking a seven game difference between eight teams, with 67 or so games left to play. For that level of precision, our statistical tools start to work against us.

Want to discount small sample size? Too late. We have less than 70 games left this season, and so small-sample size is a legitimate issue – and with every game played it’s increasingly likely to mess things up.

Wanna talk about run differential? Its predictive power is also reduced with each game that is played. And its predictive power is taking a shot this year anyhow. The top team on that list should be seventh according to run differential.

Trust player-projection systems like PECOTA? They're fun, but now they are missing more than a half-year of data. And it’s the half year that is most indicative of a player's future performance.

Maybe it’s time to set aside the offseason analysis and take a fresh look at this race, including a fresh look at the Twins chances. Forget the players that left, the veterans that didn’t pan out, the money not spent, and the missing power. Instead, focus on the improvement, the youth, the speed and the potential. Or if you don’t want to embrace those things, how about the random chance that the Twins make up just two games over the next 67? On either of the teams in front of them?

As for me, I’m choosing to believe. I don’t fully understand what has happened to Denard Span, Alexi Casilla, Brian Buscher, Nick Blackburn, and Glen Perkins. I don’t understand how a team can score this many runs without hitting for more power. And I don’t understand how a starting pitching staff can be this good without striking more people out. I fully admit it. I don’t get it.

And I don’t care.

The fault is in my understanding, not in the rest of the world’s execution. And I couldn’t be happier to be wrong. Bring on the pennant race.

Twins Takes

Liriano
In case you missed it (and let's face it, NOBODY who comes to this blog missed it) Francisco Liriano's agent, Greg Genske, is asking the player's union to investigate if the Twins kept Liriano in AAA just to limit his service time. I speculated in the past that Liriano's agent impacted the decision to have Liriano pitch (and get shelled) three times this April, largely because he was worried about service time....

And if you think that little ticking clock wasn't at the top of his and his agent's mind, you're kidding yourself. You can be damn sure there would be plenty of resentment if he "wasn't being given a chance" as Bill Smith so aptly put it.

Three starts later, things were much clearer for the team, the agent, and probably the player.

Looks like I was right and I was wrong. There's little doubt that early season call-up was impacted by the agent. But it looks like giving up 13 walks and 13 runs in 10 innings didn't fully convince Genske that maybe he wasn't the best judge of when Liriano was major-league ready. I wonder how many more walks and runs it would have taken?

By the way, if you really want to dive into whether Liriano's return to the majors has been delayed by the financial incentive of keeping him at Rochester, it has been debated (mostly) intelligently for months over at a discussion board called rotojunkie.com. The first four pages follow Liriano's return to the majors, but on this page (back in May) the debate starts about the motives for keeping him in Rochester. I sounded off several times in the thread. I used to think that "Jericho" was just a bitter know-it-all and Liriano roto-owner. Now I wonder if he isn't Genske.

Billy Beane - Boy Genius!
For the second time this month, the A's trade away one of their front-line starting pitchers for spare parts/minor leaguers. This, despite being three games out of a playoff spot and having a run differential that is third best in the AL. I suppose it's possible Beane isn't working covertly for the Anaheim Angels, but I'm not sure what else he could do if he was.

In general, I like and admire Beane, but how can he not be absolutely savaged for these trades? I spoke above about how it might be time to let go of back stories and expectations and try and evaluate things without swimming within those antiquated points-of-view. Is it time to do the same with Bean? Imagine if someone like Bill Bavasi or Jim Bowden did this. It's possible that the baseball blogosphere would spontaneously combust like a potted plant.

Opportunistic Week
The Rangers coming to town doesn't exactly fire the imagination, but compare that list of contenders above to the Twins schedule this next week. The Rangers and the Yankees are two of the teams that the Twins will be competing against for a playoff spot, and the Twins don't have a winning record against either of them. Winnning the series against both would be nice, but the Twins have a chance to absolutely bury either of them with a sweep.

Finding a Trump Card

The card player has ground it out. He's survived, he's played well, and now he smiles to himself. It's the trump card. He has it, and the game changes. This won't be one he grinds out, hoping to survive. This is one he needs to take. He needs to shoot higher.


The Twins missing trump card has become obvious in the last two weeks as three games slipped away. Twice versus Boston and once versus Detroit a game was lost because there wasn't a dominant presence to step on the eighth inning's neck. But it turns out that guy hasn't just been important this year. For the Twins, that second best bullpen guy has mattered a lot, usually being the one of (or even the) most important pitcher on the staff. This year, he's the missing trump card.


That might be hard to believe. We traditionally measure a player's effectiveness using cumulative and full-season statistics, and in that context the best middle reliever doesn't usually shine. After all, they usually only pitch half the innings of even the fourth best starter. Certainly, the market hasn't recognized them as being particularly valuable, with the exception of whoever the Yankees had targeted to serve as a bridge to Mariano Rivera.


But we use those full-season statistics for a reason. We don't know the situation a ballplayer faced when he walked to the plate. It could be when the team was down by five runs with the bases empty, or it could be when the bases were loaded late in a one-run game. We assume that those situations "even out" so we can judge the batter by his overall stats.


But that randomness doesn't apply to the best non-closer in the bullpen. He's only rarely used in games that have been decided. The majority of his appearances happen in close games - and late in close games. His impact on any game in is signficant. And you can see just how significant using the Win Probability Added (WPA) stat.


I could spend the rest of this entry writing a definition of WPA, so let's start with this one from Wikipedia:


Win Probability Added is a technical baseball statistic which attempts to measure a player's win contribution by figuring how much each specific play he made altered the outcome of a game.


There's an elegant beauty about how it's figured with precision, but I don't want to go into all of that. Suffice to say that it gives extra credit for performing in crucial situations, almost no credit for performing in non-crucial situation, and absolutely no credit for fielding, which is probably it's biggest weakness. And it has other limitations, such as difficulty in predicting a player's future impact, since it doesn't know what kind of situations a player will face.


But it is really, really good for evaluating how big an impact a player had on a game or a season. And for the Twins run this decade, it shows just how effective the best non-closer in the bullpen has been. Below is a list of who that player has been each year, and how they ranked against the entire rest of the team (not just pitchers) in WPA:


2002 - JC Romero - Best WPA on the team
2003 - Latroy Hawkins - Best WPA on the team
2004 - Juan Rincon - 6th best WPA on the team
2005 - Jesse Crain - 2nd best WPA on the team
2006 - Juan Rincon - 6th best WPA on the team
2007 - Pat Neshek - 2nd best WPA on the team
2008 - Matt Guerrier - 6th best WPA on the team


The ability to use a certain player at a certain point is a key weapon for a baseball team, allowing a manager to leverage his best performing players in the most critical situations. A dominant bullpen arm, be it a closer or otherwise, essentially gives the manager a trump card to use wherever and whenever it most suits him.


Gardenhire is doing a decent job of playing the cards he has been dealt, given the injury to Neshek and the decline of Rincon. But as Bill Smith schmoozes this week at the All-Star Game, he needs to understand that the Twins are at least one card short of a winning hand. And it his his responsibility to get that trump card.

Twins Takes

Got an email from a friend this weekend after Saturday's game...

What's Gardenhire's effing problem? Tying run on second, two outs in the eighth, removing Reyes because a righty is now at the plate, and he goes to Bass because it's not yet the ninth so Nathan is off limits? Lame. Bass got out of the inning fine, but these are the kinds of small decisions that do cost teams ballgames.

I can't argue with this. In general, I think the rending of garments about how the Twins use Joe Nathan is misguided, but my friend is right. Nathan had worked both nights before, but he had also thrown just nine pitches in Friday's game. If he isn't used in that situation, exactly when will he be extended? And it further demonstrates the necessity of getting that second dominant bullpen arm.

Biblical Proportions

Hi gang. I'm kind of bushed tonight, so I'm running what I wrote on Thursday for the Dugout Splinters insert in GameDay titled "Biblical Proportions". While I'm at it, I'll throw in some postscript notes in blue. Hope you like it. - John

-----------------------------------

Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes....
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

- From Ghostbusters

(I think it's fair to say that I don't quote Ghostbusters nearly enough. It's possible that nobody does.)

Any other year, the collapse of the Indians might be large enough to rate as “biblical”. This year? The perpetually terrible Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in the majors. The NL pennant-winning Rockies are 17 games under .500. Throw in the Padres, Tigers, White Sox and Twins, and the Indians slide might not make the top five.

That doesn’t make it any less astounding. Last October, this team had a 3-1 game lead in the American League Championship series. This year they are in last place in the modest AL Central, 11 (now 14) games under .500, and 12.5 (now also 14) games behind the division leading White Sox - who just swept them.

So what in the name of Hal Trosky is going on?

Well, it’s been a combination of things, really. There’s been some bad luck, preceded by a slow start, and followed by some key injuries. You can start with the bad luck, because this team has actually scored more runs than it has given up. And yet they’re nowhere near having a .500 record. I’d like to tell you the cause, and there are plenty of people who will claim they can. But in reality, it’s a little like watching the roulette ball land on red ten times while you’re betting on black. You can try to explain it, but even if you can explain it you can’t do much about it. Except congratulate the guy who has been betting on red.

(After watching this team, it looks like the biggest reason they've underperformed is their bullpen. That certainly makes sense. But there is a reason that the stats guys say that it's mostly about luck despite pretty clear anecdotal evidence to the contrary. Here's an example:

I once studied several years of baseball teams over the first half of a season and over the second half of a season. I compared how often their record overperformed or underperformed versus their run differential. You might expect that if a team underperformed versus their runs over the first half of a season, like Cleveland has, that they would likely underperform against it the second half of the season, too. Certainly that would make sense if it was primarily due to something like a team's bullpen.

But when you compare them, there is no correlation. A team that overperforms before the all-star break is just as likely to underperform as to overperform again after the all-star break. It truly seems to be dependent on how the ball bounces.)

Cleveland also didn’t get out of the gate very fast this year, sporting a record that was at or below .500 for most of April. That was largely fueled by inconsistent and outright hideous outings from starter and current Cy Young Award holder C.C. Sabathia, who finished April with an ERA of 7.76.

There were plenty of offensive culprits, too. Last year’s spark for their pennant run was rookie second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera. He hit .283, and seemed to come through in every key-at bat. This year, he spent most of April and May extinguishing offensive flames before he was sent to the minors in early July. He’s hitting down there, and will likely return soon since Cleveland second basemen collectively have the second worst offensive mark in the major leagues by OPS (On-base Plus Slugging).

But the most damaging decline to the offense has been inflicted by #3 hitter Travis Hafner. His production declined last season, falling from 42 home runs in 2006 to just 24. Most assumed the 30-year-old (now 31) would bounce back this year. After all, he looked like he was pressing a bit, especially after he signed a contract extension guaranteeing him another $60 million through 2012.

So what is his home run total this year? Try four. Just four home runs. And it isn’t likely to go up soon, because he was placed on the disabled list at the end of May for … well, there things are a little unclear. We know it’s his shoulder, and that he’s always had problems with that shoulder, and that it’s weaker than the other one, and that he’s working on strengthening exercises. But they don’t know when he’s going to come back. And they don’t know exactly how good he’s going to be when he does.

The injuries don’t stop with Hafner. While Sabathia won the Cy Young award last year, it’s arguable that Fausto Carmona, who also had 19 wins and a lower ERA than Sabathia, was the best pitcher on the Indians staff. He was placed on the disabled list at the end of June with a hip strain and won’t be back until after the all-star break. Pitcher Jake Westbrook, who was another ace pitcher early this year, underwent Tommy John surgery in June. And the middle of the lineup was really gutted when catcher and cleanup hitter Victor Martinez also underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow joint. He won’t be back until the end of July at the very earliest.

And, of course, no Dugout Splinters about the Cleveland Indians would be complete without talking about the Tribe’s under-performing bullpen. This is GameDay’s seventh year, and Cleveland visits about three times per year, so this is roughly the 20th time that we’ve talked about the perpetually putrid Indians bullpen. I could plug in the same verbiage I’ve been using since 2002. In fact, let’s try that. It’s a little like Mad Libs™. Play along, won’t you?

This offseason, despite being a priority, the Indians failed to upgrade their bullpen, instead staying with somewhat shaky veteran Bob Wickman Joe Borowski as their closer. He’s blown his last few save opportunities, so this series it’s likely that manager Charlie Manuel Eric Wedge might turn to Mark Wohlers Rafael Betancourt Bobby Howry Fernando Cabrera Masahide Kobayashi in the late innings.

Given all that bad mojo, it isn’t shocking that General Manager Mark Shapiro is hinting that he is preparing to move Sabathia, who will be a free agent at the end of the year, at the trade deadline. That’s in four weeks (and is rumored to be near completion). If they’re swept by the Twins (giggle) like they were by the Sox, last year’s division flag will likely be replaced by a white one.

Comment Thursday

Fourth of July weekend is beginning a little early in the Geek House. Not because I'm taking an extra day off - I'm not. But fortunately, just about everyone else is. So let's dedicate today's comments column to everyone who stretches their long weekend, and in so doing, pushes the rest of us into a holiday state of mind. Let's get to the comments....


A Few Questions I Have This Week

Since comments are a little light this week, let's start by answering the questions I asked on Sunday night, keeping in mind that we're only halfway though the week.


Q: Is Detroit a contender?
A: Nominally. Could they win the division? Yeah. But let's give it the "scary" test. Would you ever find yourself saying "You know what scares me? The Tigers. They're scary."


Well, if they were real tigers, the answer would be "yes". Tigers, rare as they are, are one of the few natural enemies of man. They won't hesitate to hunt us in their natural habitat and they enhance their power and viciousness by being incredibly sneaky. They almost always are able to attack from behind. In fact, people walking through a tiger's territory sometimes wear masks on the back of their heads to try and fool them.


And for this Tigers team I would have said "yes" during this offseason. Ditto through April, even though they looked dreadful. Even last week during their 17-4 run I might have replied affirmatively. But after watching the bulk of this series and three other ones I'm comfortable saying that the only way they're dangerous is when they attack from behind. And while they're not pussycats, I don't feel the need to walk around with a mask on the back of my head either. Unless maybe it's of Joe Nathan. That should keep them at bay.


Q: Can Denard Span help the club this year?
A: Yep, or at least he can if he stays on the team. Dick Bremer made a good point last night about how different the Twins offseason might have been if Span would have shown this year's development last year. Would there have been as much ruckus about Hunter leaving? Would they have courted the same teams during Johan trades if they didn't need a center fielder? Would the Twins have ended up with the Mets' Fernando Martinez instead of Carlos Gomez?


By the way, the 19-year-old Martinez is playing pretty well in AA right now. It's worth noting that he was injured again this year and missed more than a month with a hamstring strain.


Q: Speaking of ever, will Ron Gardenhire ever let Span bat leadoff?
A: Still don't know. Span looks like he would be an infinitely better fit there than Gomez, but so has Casilla for over a month.


And if we really want to talk about switching around the lineup, I know it's not traditional, but what if we sprinkled these guys around in the lineup a little? It seems counter-intuitive to have any of them batting in the middle of the order, but it sure would be nice to see one of these speed bugs show up each inning or so. And, to be honest, I'd rather have both Casilla's and Span's disciplined bats in the middle of the lineup over Delmon Young's right now. At the very least, maybe move one of them to the seventh spot?


As far as I know, I've never seen a simulation which tried something like that. Let's take it a step further. What if we divided a lineup into three types of players - lead-offs, general hitters, and power, and assigned each group three of your players. And then what if you just alternated them with a leadoff batter being followed by a hitter who was followed by a slugger. If the Twins did something like that, I'd probably divide them something like this:


Lead off - Gomez, Casilla, Span
Hitters - Mauer, Harris, Buscher
Power - Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer


And then the lineup would look like this: Casilla, Mauer, Morneau, Span, Buscher, Kubel, Gomez, Harris, Cuddyer.


Gawd, that looks ... awful. What am I writing? Did someone slip something into my ice water? Let's forget this conversation ever took place, OK?


Q: Will Glen Perkins be in this rotation after the all-star break?
This brings us to our first comment of the week....


TT said...
And two of [Perkins] last three [starts] have been [quality starts].


They really need to make room for a guy [Liriano] who has given up 5 runs in each of his last two games at AAA while never getting out of the 6th inning. Perkins has had two starts that bad all year - and they were both almost a month ago. Perkins job is, or should be, at least as safe as Nick Blackburn's.


I guess we can both throw numbers around, but Perkin's ERA in June, even after that nice start this week, is 4.67. That said, he's now had three quality starts in his last four, and this last start was impressive. He might be the best at working inside of all of the starters, especially when he establishes it early. His control is still inconsistent, and that's what worries me. But he seems to be overcoming that after a rough stretch.

Your point about Blackburn is a good one. Blackburn's starts lately have been better than Perkins', but he also had a rough spot and had his turn in the rotation skipped once for "elbow soreness". I think of him as more established because he's been in the rotation longer, and that's usually a valid consideration with this coaching staff. They both still have plenty to prove, but they've both surprised me, and in a good way. I recognize that they're very good.

Which sucks for Liriano. Yes, he's given up some runs lately, but he's also improved his control and is back to striking out a guy per inning. Maybe more importantly to the cynics, calling him up now (or at least soon) is late enough in the season that he won't end the season with enough service time to be a Super 2 arbitration-eligible player. That could save the Twins a couple of million dollars per year over the next four years. What to do with him is a nice problem to have.

Bitter Aftertaste
neckrolls said...
Gardy was ejected in the 3rd inning - Scott Ulger made all the pitching changes (and non-changes).

I need to ask - does anyone really understand why Gardy gets thrown out in these situations? He's not protecting a player. He's not arguing a close call. It seems like he's just throwing a fit about a rule he doesn't like, which would be fine, but I'm not even all that sure about what he doesn't like about the rule.

In this case, it sounds like he was mad that his guy got thrown at twice while their guy was thrown at once. But no real harm was done in any of the three episodes. You can argue that the umpire allowed the teams to state their positions and then, when it looked like one team was going to carry it a little further, he issued the warnings. He probably should have done it after the first close pitch to Mauer, and Gardy has every right, and maybe the responsibility, to point out that out to the umpire. But why get tossed over it? No harm was done. What further point is made by throwing a petulant fit?

And if his issue is the whole "warning" rule, one could argue that it's made to protect teams exactly like the Twins. This team, especially under Gardy's leadership, has absolutely shied away from any kind of beanball retaliation, even when it is clear their hitters are being thrown at. This year that seems to be a little bit different, with a little more feistiness, and it makes me wonder if the previous passive behavior was a result of Radke and/or Santana's leadership.

Again, I think Gardy is a much better manager than he is generally given credit. And in the big picture, this is small potatoes. But this has been an ongoing issue during the Gardenhire regime, and his reaction seems to be wholly ineffective at best, and puzzling, embarrassing and self-destructive at worst. Which brings us to our last comment....

Anonymous said...
It's a great question: does the manager stop managing after being ejected? I've always assumed the answer is no.

In the Twins case, I believe the answer is "yes". And furthermore, I believe Gardy's puzzling, embarrassing and self-destructive fit might well have cost the Twins that first game of the series.

I suspect that Gardy really does leave these kind of on-field decisions to one of his coaches because I keep seeing that delegation philosophy within the organization. You can sense that GM Bill Smith (and Terry Ryan before him) is sometimes legitimately frustrated with some of Gardy's playing time choices, but he will not interfere because he also understands the benefits of having some boundaries, like not having a manager look over his own shoulder. You get the same feeling when the team talks about the draft. You get that feeling when they talk about their minor league coaches. You even get that feeling with Gardenhire and his players. And I'd be shocked if it didn't extend to Gardy's staff. The idea of establishing limits in power to allow direct reports to do their job and face the consequences seems to be fundamental to this organization.

And that raises the question about whether Ullger was doing what he thought he was supposed to do, or what he wanted to do. Or, as I said on Monday night:

"But was Ullger sticking with Guerrier because he thought Guerrier was the designated eighth inning guy? If Gardy would have been making the moves, would it have been done differently, because he's more comfortable second-guessing himself than Ullger is second-guessing his boss?"

I have a high opinion of Gardenhire's feel for the bullpen, and tend to think it would have been played a bit differently, and turned out differently, if he was the one pulling the strings. That's part of why I wrote what I did on Monday night. It's rare that you see him miss an opportunity that gives his bullpen a clear advantage.

OK, that does it for this week. This weekend the Twins get a chance to bury the Indians and then bury the shovel. We'll talk to you on Monday and see if they take advantage of it.

Bitter Aftertaste

"Slow, old, and a little indifferent." That's how I described the Tigers in the second series versus the Twins this year, though I also mentioned how explosive they could be in the first series. Then, last month, we saw both in the same series as the Tigers sandwiched an explosive 19-3 victory with two anemic outings. Last night we saw both in the same game.

The Tigers entered the game with Magglio Ordonez on the disabled list. By the third inning, they had sought medical attention for two more of the veterans as the Tigers spent some time looking at catcher Ivan Rodriguez's knee and pulled Miguel Cabrera from the game with a hip flexor. They also had committed three fielding errors.

Their quite march to a meek loss was changed in the seventh inning. I suspect manager Ron Gardenhire will take a fair amount of abuse from at least two group of fans about pulling Perkins after 6.1 innings. First, Fans who think Ruining Arms is Good(FRAG) will wonder why Perkins wasn't allowed to get himself out of the inning when he had only thrown 91 pitches. After all, that's how Bert did it. Second, the Wins Are Statistical Tomfoolery group(WAST) will probably wonder if Gardy didn't take Perkins out so he could make sure his young pitcher had no chance to get a loss after that outing.

Both may be right, but there was nothing wrong with that move. Two right-handed batters were coming up, and both of them have hit significantly worse against right-handed pitchers this year. But for those who want to question a bullpen move, Gardy gave us a nice morsel to pick apart an inning later. Or rather a bullpen non-move.

The Twins were clinging to a 4-3 lead, the tying run was on second base and there was one out. Right-handed Matt Guerrier was pitching for the Twins, and so the Tigers announced that left-handed Matt Joyce would be a pinch hitter. Joyce not only hits right-handed pitchers better than left-handed pitchers, he almost only hits against right-handed pitchers. This year he has only two at-bats, and no hits, against southpaws. What's more, he was being followed by Curtis Granderson, another left-handed hitter who is hitting significantly worse against the southpaws.

Fortunately, the Twins had a southpaw sitting in the bullpen. Unfortunately, the active verb was "sitting". It was Craig Breslow, who sports a 1.47 ERA and 17 K in 18 innings. He's not only been lights out since joining the Twins, he's been lights out against left-handers, and even better against right-handers, if you can believe it. But he wasn't warmed up. He wasn't even off the bench. Apparently Gardenhire, for whatever reason, had decided it was Guerrier's game to win or lose.

It turned out to be the latter. Joyce hit a triple down the right field line and then Granderson singled to center field to drive in the winning run. Guerrier retired the next two batters (both right-handed) to get out of the inning. And Breslow did finally enter the game, but it was in the ninth inning. He retired the two batters he faced.

Those are the facts, and I'll follow it with the caveats. First, I've spent more than a little time praising Ron Gardenhire for developing, building and effectively using his bullpen, and it's deserved. Second, god knows that this isn't the first time this year that the Tigers have shown that they can beat up the Twins bullpen. Of their four wins this year against the Twins, this is the third time they've won it because they slap our bullpen like I slap mustard on a corn dog. (And I REALLY like mustard.) Finally, Bert and Dick mentioned that Breslow had back issues earlier that might have carried into this game. That might have played a part even though he did pitch later in the game.

But I sure hope that someone asked Gardenhire about this in the postgame press conference. Something like "I'm sure you debated bringing the left-hander Breslow in during the eighth inning. What factors made you keep him on the bench versus Joyce and Granderson?" Now, maybe Gardenhire can talk about those reasons ("I have lots of faith in Guerrier") and maybe he can't ("I don't trust Breslow in a high-leverage situation yet"). But the game likely hinged on that decision. It deserves to be answerd, and it really deserves to be asked.

I suspect the manager will do both about 20 times tonight. We'll pick at it, but Gardy will likely gnaw on it in between shots of cherry extract. I wonder which will be more bitter.


(Post Note: OK, I'm a dumbass. I was listening when Gardy was thrown out. I was watching when Ullger pulled Perkins. And as I was writing this, I must've seen the "highlights" of Gardenhire being thrown from the game at least three times. And yet, at no time, did I think "So this was Ullger making those decisions".

It raises another question which we likely won't really get answered publicly. Just how much influence does a thrown out manager have in a game like that? We know he shouldn't have any, so that will be the public answer. But was Ullger sticking with Guerrier because he thought Guerrier was the designated eighth inning guy? If Gardy would have been making the moves, would it have been done differently, because he's more comfortable second-guessing himself than Ullger is second-guessing his boss?

It adds a whole new level of helplessness to this depressing loss knowing that it may have resulted from Gardy's Holy Crusade Against Warnings. That sounds like a topic for a comment Friday.

Anyway, my bad. I'll gnaw on this the way I said Gardy would be gnawing last night on that loss. And I suspect the bitter aftertaste is similar. Only I'll wash it down with some Diet Pepsi Max.)

A Few Questions I Have This Week

Confused about your team? Me too, or at least a little. I was the optimistic one, but even I expected them to struggle in the first half of the season. But even at eight games over .500, there are still a bunch of question that have yet to be answered. For some fans, that's disconcerting. For me, it's like a cold beer on a summer patio - ignoring it wouldn't just be stupid, it would be sinful.

And there are some that I'm looking at especially close this week. Starting with:

Q: Is Detroit a contender?

I know, I know, it's supposed to be Twins questions, right? Well, I'm cheating a little, but not in the way you think. This is a question about the Twins, because the Twins will be facing the Tigers seven more times in the next two (that's the cheat) weeks. In fact, they'll only have one more series against them after the all-star break, and it will be at home in September. If the Twins smack down the Tigers by taking five of the seven games, the Tigers are going to have a fairly tough time making up the ground.

That's not unreasonable, because so far this season, the Twins are 5-3 versus the Tigers, but what's been striking is how one team has clearly dominated the other in almost each game. Early in the season the Twins bullpen blew two opportunities and let the Tigers regain a little swagger from their horrid start. In a three game series at the Metrodome the Tigers looked slow, old and a little indifferent. And in the last series in Detroit the Twins sandwiched two steady but solid victories around a 19-3 shellacking.

All year the Tigers have looked like a talented, but inconsistent, team. They can explode one night and implode (or maybe more disconcerting, fail to ignite) the next two nights. But they have won seventeen of their last twenty-one games making them one of the few teams that can claim to be hotter than the Twins right now. This week (and next weekend) we'll get to see firsthand if the team has changed, or if they've just been exploding a little more often.

Q: Can Denard Span help the club this year?

Be careful what you ask for - you just might get it. Last week I tried to find room for Span on the Twins roster, and today he'll find his way into the lineup at the expense of Michael Cuddyer, who will make his second appearance on the disabled list with a finger problem.

Span certainly profiles as someone who can eventually be a benefit to this team. In particular, since last last year he looks like someone who has gained an awareness that there is this imaginary box around home plate called "the strike zone", and that he isn't required to swing at pitches that are not in that imaginary box.

That mystical realization has led to an on-base percentage of .431 in Rochester. It's also correlated with a 60 point leap in batting average. But maybe most amazing is that it has led to a substantial spike in power, as he's sporting a .471 slugging percentage in AAA right now. That's over 100 points higher than he's ever had in a minor league season.

Q: Speaking of ever, will Ron Gardenhire ever let Span bat leadoff?

OK, "ever" is a strong word. After all, Gardy did allow Span to bat leadoff when he was here last time. Once. In twelve games. When Gomez didn't play. So Span may get a turn sometime when Gomez doesn't play. But will he ever get to bat leadoff and move Gomez to ninth in the order?

The initial answer will almost surely be "no", and Gardy will explain it thusly:
1. He doesn't want to put too much pressure on Span.
2. He wants Gomez to see as many pitches as he can.
3. He enjoys the challenge of fighting off that pulmonary embolism as he watches Gomez chase that eighth consecutive low-and-away slider.

Alright, I made that last one up. He would never say that. He probably wouldn't even say "That which does not kill me, makes me stronger." But he must be thinking it, because I know that Gomez has struck out on that pitch in 3/4 of his at-bats. So I guess #2 is taking care of itself - he's certainly getting to see plenty of that pitch. But I suspect he will in the #9 spot, too.

Q: Will Glen Perkins be in this rotation after the all-star break?

His manager barely disguised his disappointment after his last start. Four of his last six starts haven't been quality starts. He gets two starts this week. And finally, his start tonight is against the Tigers, against whom he had his most impressive performance of the season.

Why is that significant? Becuase they'll be gunning for him. He won't sneak up on them like he did after that 19-3 game. With Francisco Liriano toiling and waiting in AAA, this week could go a long way towards indicating if Perkins spends the end of July in Minneapolis or Rochester.

Comment Friday

Huzzah! A summer friday night in Minnesota. I'd like to dedicate today's comments column to the drunk Brewers fan who will accidentally pay me $11 for a $2 GameDay Program and Scorecard tonight because his eyes can't focus. Sir, enjoy that extra three second pause between any crucial stimulus and your response. It's like a little vacation!

And now, on to the comments....

Busch-whacked

Tricia said...
Love the 16 Candles reference. That's one of my favorite movies ever. I am also really starting to like Brian Buscher, small sample size or not.

You like Sixteen Candles references? All right. I knew you'd come around. This blog...this blog is happenin' I'm blowing your mind aren't I? I'm just getting warmed up. Grooowwwwllllll.....

John said...
It's worth noting that Buscher's pro career started at a relatively advanced age; he was already 22 when drafted. Not to say Buscher is his equal, but Corey Koskie's first full season was at age 27. Casey Blake didn't get his first real shot until age 29.

Very nice. I thought about comparing Buscher to Koskie but was under the impression that Koskie started his MLB career much earlier. They aren't dissimilar player in that they are both left-handed, fairly patient hitters. Let's call Buscher a poor man's Koskie, shall we? Because we haven't used that cliche yet.

(BTW, I just looked up Koskie's minor league stats. He had a similar jump in power, but it happened earlier, and he never really had Buscher's plate discipline in the minors.)

And bringing up Blake is partially brilliant and partially just cruel. But it makes me wonder if there's something about third base that allows players to start in the majors a bit later than other positions.

neckrolls said...
I think we sometimes put too much stock in a minor-league track record. A lot of baseball is mental, and it can take some people a while for the light to come on. Nick Blackburn is another one who was middling for awhile, but appeared to figure something out last year. Hopefully, the same sort of thing is also happening for Denard Span, and he'll turn out to be a productive player after all.

Well, I do put a lot of stock in a minor-league track record, but I would argue that Buscher's minor league record does demonstrate growth and some maintainable skills for the majors.

On Waiting and Outrage

Anonymous said...
John, I think it is just a matter of time before Span is brought up again. He will undoubtedly be the first to be called up if an OF lands on the DL. I will also not be surprised if the Twins were to send Gomez down if he goes into a prolonged slump, which appears to be the direction he is heading. Lately, he has not been the catalyst that he was earlier in the season.

I've thought the same thing about Gomez, and the stall pattern he is in makes me wonder if it wouldn't benefit him to spend some time in Rochester. But let's also note that Delmon Young didn't play in the Padres series. I'm not too surprised he was the odd man out in an NL park versus three right-handers, but I am a little surprised that he was the odd man out every night.

twayn said...
I think you have to also consider Bill Smith's mindset in the equation. Span has been in the organization since day one, while Young and Gomez are high-profile Smith acquisitions. As such, they are going to get every chance to prove themselves "at the major league level," as Bert likes to say (way too often). Smith does not have nearly the same vested interest in seeing Span succeed as a major league player as he does in seeing Young and Gomez succeed with the big club.

Well, it's not like Smith wasn't in the organization when they drafted and invested in Span, so there is some interest there. But I can't argue your point. It would be a much larger feather in Smith's cap if one of those guys turned a corner this year. I just wonder if they might not have more success turning that corner in AAA, and I suspect the Twins are debating the same thing, and have been for some time. The longer each one's development stalls, the more it makes sense to try something else.

ThatsRich said...
In addition to the contractual considerations you suggest, I think organization depth makes it clear that the pitcher is the right one to sacrifice.

TT said....
Where is that depth? The only pitcher at AAA that looks remotely read to step into the rotation is Liriano. And he isn't ready. Korecky may be able to step into the bullpen. But the reality is that the Twins vaunted pitching depth appears to be mostly anticipation, rather than anyone really ready for the major leagues.

If Span is going to be on the bench, I agree that the person to cut is the seventh bullpener, and I'd nominate Bass. I don't want Span on the bench, so I'd lean toward Gomez or Young, whichever the coaching staff thinks is more likely to regain confidence in Rochester.

I'll admit that I haven't really researched how the organizational depth is doing in Rochester. I don't think it's overwhelming. But I trust Rick Anderson to find someone else servicable to help out in the bullpen if need be.

Anonymous said...
Part of the problem is that the Twins' left-handed hitters as a group are much better than their right-handed hitters, so adding another lefty bat isn't as appealing as it otherwise would be.

Another fair point. I don't know if it changes anything for me, but it's becoming a little spooky, isn't it? This isn't a new problem this year, or even since Mauer and Morneau arrived. Jacque, Corey, AJ, Ortiz - it seems like we're trying to find someone to plug in between those guys every freaking year. I would love to hear someone from the Twins farm system try to explain this phenomenon.

curveball said....
If Span comes up, will he play? The Twins have to make a decision on him for 2009 especially. He's out of options and has to stay in 2009 or go elsewhere.

I also hadn't thought of that. Like the left-handed thing, I'm not sure it makes any difference right now. At the very least, I suspect they trust him to be a fourth outfielder. The question is whether he can be more than that, and he'll likely get a chance this year or next to show us.

As for next year, this just means the Twins won't re-sign Craig Monroe, and I don't think there are going to be any bitter tears over that. But I'll point out that the Monroe has had his moments, and if I hear one more indignant tirade about the money he's making, my temples might implode. Try out this exact change on the clue bus: before you gripe about the four million that they spent on Monroe (or the three they're spending on Lamb), you might want to gripe a bit about the $8 million dollars that they aren't spending on anyone. Good golly.

Notes from a Late Night Game

Josh's Thoughts said...
Like they did with Brandon Roy, I'm starting to get worried about the Wolves selecting either Mayo or Beasley and then trading him for a player lower on the board (a guy like Kevin Love) and then A) unload some salary and/or B) pick up a veteran role player as well. I hope that whoever they pick (as long as it's one of those two or Rose), I hope they keep them.

It was very quiet and very boring, but I'm excited about seeing what OJ Mayo can do. I just don't understand the argument that the Wolves "don't need" that position. The Wolves definitely need an outside threat to open up the inside game for Jefferson, and neither McCants or Foye showed that they can consistently play that role.

Would I have rather seen an impact center taken? Yep. But there wasn't one. There was a mediocre center. There were impact guys who might be able to occasionally play center (in fact, we have one of those already). But there wasn't an impact center.

Oh, and if you want to get to know Mayo a bit, check out this story by Chad Ford. It will get you excited.

(Late edit: I'm sick about this trade. Sick.)

Nick N said....
This is basically the reason I've been sticking up for Bonser all year long. His peripherals have been SOOO much better than his results. It strikes me that he's just been unbelievably unlucky. I really feel like he'd be fine if he got back into the rotation; the bullpen is not a particularly good fit for him.

He's become the single most puzzling and intriguing guy on the roster for me in the last 24 hours. And I don't believe it's just luck. But I can't figure out what is going on with him. This is just crazy.

Anonymous said...
Personally I would not describe the Marbury trade as the work of inspired, insightful masters of the trade. ... Imagine KG with Allen, and Gugliotta, and high number one pick, instead of a team cancer like Marbury. I'm sorry, but I really, really, really can't stand that guy.

Well, I won't blame the Wolves too much for that one. It's hard to look into someone's heart and determine if they're going to win or lose a battle with themselves. I really, really, really can't stand that guy either, but the difference is that I pity him, in the same way I would pity a fallen Greek hero in a cautionary myth.

The further we get from that break up, the more obvious it becomes that Marbury could have literally had it all. He was absolutely the perfect compliment to KG, and KG was the perfect compliment to him. KG needed someone selfish to play with him, someone who wanted the ball in the most crucial situations, and that was Steph. Steph needed someone who could take require attention and assist the offensive flow so Marbury didn't become a one-dimensional scorer, and that was KG. The fact that they liked each other so much wasn't just coincidence. It was fate gently nudging them to each other.

And ironically, Marbury's need to be "the man" on a team would have fared far better if he had stayed. It likely would have come to fruition during numerous playoff crunch time appearances, just like it did for Paul Pierce and (to a lesser extent) Ray Allen this year. And he would have been on a bigger stage, with more success than he ever actually achieved. And he threw that all away in a pique of jealousy. It honestly breaks my heart.

OK, that's it for this week. See you at the Metrodome this weekend. Hopefully on Monday we'll talking about twelve in a row.....

Notes from a Late Night Game

The Bonnes Bar and Baseball Basement is at least 12 degress cooler than the rest of the house and sports some HD goodness, so let's just watch most of a Twins game and write a bit, shall we?

Brendan Harris
Two home runs in two games makes me wonder if he's starting a streak that could raise his stats back to the level we anticipated. If so, he's got a long way to go.

Last year Harris sported a .286/.343/.434 line. This year, even after the two home runs, he's giving up 30 points in average and on-base percentage and 60 points of power. My perception is that he's struggled a bit all year, but he had a decent April, slid a little in May, and fell off the table for the first couple weeks of June. A week ago his slugging percentage was under .300. that's the kind of "production" that could have lead to him never being heard from again if Punto had just been healthy.

For the record, he never faced that kind of adversity last year. But he does have a history of bunching home runs together. Last year, of his twelve home runs, he hit six in a 3 week span around early June, and another four in 10 days in September.

The Gardy Move
I was a little surprised that Ron Gardenhire pulled Glen Perkins after five innings, but maybe I shouldn't have been. Perkins had thrown 91 pitches, and threw as many balls as strikes in the bottom of the fifth. Gardy removed him for pinch hitter Mike Lamb because it was Perkins turn to bat, and there were runners on first and second base with one out. He was looking to bust the game open.

But the Twins were already ahead 5-3. The move meant that the bullpen would need to hold the lead for four innings instead of just three. And it wasn't that great of a scoring opportunity.

In the short term, the move didn't work, but it did long term. Lamb grounded to first, moving the runners, which is precisely what Perkins probably would have tried to do with a bunt. But the Twins did pick up two more runs that inning (see below) and Brian Bass shut down the Padres in the sixth and seventh inning.

I'm not being critical. I just find it intersesting how Gardy played that situation. At best I would've considered it borderline aggressive, and the truth is that I really expected him to just let Perkins bunt those players over.

The Big Hit
The big hit that inning was by Carlos Gomez, and I must admit I wasn't optimistic about his chances. Here's Gomez, who hasn't improved a lick in his plate discipline since early May, facing Greg Maddux, who can toy with far more disciplined hitters.

Gomez didn't have a particularly good at-bat, but I seem to remember him laying off at least one pitch (I think it was the first one) that was down and away. He earned another ball when he didn't swing at a pitch that was near his elbow (that had already been hit once tonight). I'm pretty sure the two foul balls he hit were borderline balls, so no credit for those.

But Maddux messed up on that 2-2 ball that Gomez pulled on the ground into left field. Frankly, it looks like the control artist missed his spot inside, left the ball out over the plate, and Gomez was aggressive and skilled enough to take advantage. Sometimes that's all hitter needs.

Bonser's Ninth
I'm looking at Bonser's last five relief outings and it just doesn't make sense. He's pitched six innings which means he got eighteeen outs. Seven of them were strikouts, which is good. Another eight were ground outs, which is a really good sign. Only three were fly ball outs. What's more, he's only walked a single batter in those outings. All of those are great signs.

But in those six innings, he's given up eighteen hits?!? Are you kidding me? Eighteen? How do you get 85% or your outs from strikeouts and ground balls and still give up that many hits?

Last nigth he got two strikeouts, one ground ball out, one ground ball that was an error, and one ground ball that was a single. Which means he was a dribbler short of giving up another run. Goofy.

The Wolves Game
They make draft maneuvering sound like chess, but for the Wolves, it's really more of a child's board game.

And it's simpler than that, because the Wolves don't need to make a move. If they do nothing more than stand pat, they're going to either end up with Michael Beasley or OJ Mayo, and both would be outstanding additions to this team. Instead, Wolves fans are having the snot scared out of them amid speculation the Wolves are actively looking to move down in the draft.

There used to be a time that the Wolves looked like masters of the game with their early draft picks. They picked KG up as the fifth pick, and people still don't recognize just how inspipred that was. They also maneuvered their way into the Stephon Marbury pick, which was equally insightful. Even Wally Sczerbiak, who I believed they drafted sixth overall, ended up being a solid move. Those were the ony low picks they had for most of KG's time here, thanks to all the "skip a turn" cards we gathered from Joe Smith's contract.

But lately, the game has been a little trickier. Last year's pick, Corey Brewer, is going to need to start scoring to be anywhere near the pick they invested in him. And the last time the Wolves moved down in the draft they essentially chose Randy Foye over Brandon Roy. With Roy's play the last two years, that now looks disasterous. Given that history and that they are guaranteed a difference maker by standing pat, you would think they would sit tight with the cards they have.

Instead, every early rumor had them looking to trade down with this pick, and every sound bite muttered by TWolves management for the last 48 hours sounds like they're preparing their fan base for that move. If they turn this pick into anything less than additional lottery picks in future years, it will be (probably correctly) judged a mistake.

My biggest fear is that they move down not for additional lottery picks or for a veteran role player, but to shed the contract of Antoine Walker, Troy Hudson or Marko Jaric. While nobody doubts the debilitating effect these types of contracts have in the NBA, that additional salary space doesn't buy the Wolves much this year (because they're still going to have a lot of salary) or in future years (because so much cash comes off the books already).

All it would really do is save owner Glen Taylor some money. If that means costing the Wolves Beasley or Mayo, fans have the right to skip over "dissappointed" and advance directly to "betrayed".

On Waiting and Outrage

If Denard Span isn’t outraged, he probably should be. And maybe we should be too. Instead, we all wait.

There was “Free Johan”. And “Free Morneau”. And even “Free Kielty” (much as we might like to forget it). And earlier this year there was “Free Kubel”. All of them had three ingredients:

1. An obvious need,
2. A player who looks like a great fit and
3. A frustratingly slow reaction by the Twins.

There is a perception nationally that the Twins are hesitant to trust young players and too enamored with veterans, and I believe it is largely based on those campaigns. The reality is that there aren’t many teams that consistently turn over as many roster spots to players from their farm system as often as the Twins do, and far less that consistently have had success doing so. But the long-term success doesn’t stick with us as long as the frustration of watching Johan in the bullpen or Morneau waiting for Mientkiewicz to get injured.

Also, a good chunk of us baseball wonks classify ourselves as prospect hounds, roto players, or hard core fans, and for various reasons each of those three groups love the quick fix. And, frankly grumbling can be so much more entertaining. We don’t stay up late to watch David Letterman so he can tell us how great everything is.

This week we’re seeing signs of a new campaign, and all the same macro ingredients are there. Three of the four worst Twins everyday hitters are playing in the outfield. And Denard Span, the hottest AAA prospect for the Twins, just happens to play outfield. And yet, nothing.

Nobody within the Twins denies that he should be here. It’s damn hard to argue against a guy who had an impressive spring training, is a first round pick, and is posting a ridiculous .450 on-base percentage at Rochester. (How silly is that OBP? The highest OBP a Twins has ever put up over a full season is .449 by Rod Carew in that magical 1977 season).

The problem is that nobody is sure exactly how you squeeze him on this roster. On Monday Jim Souhan suggested getting rid of Mike Lamb to make room, but Lamb fills a role that this team has lacked for the last couple of years, even if he is overpaid for it: left-handed pinch hitter. The Twins aren’t going to give that up any time soon (and shouldn’t).

Another option would be to reduce the number of arms in the Twins bullpen. That means losing Brian Bass or Boof Bonser to another organization. That’s not a terribly tough pill to swallow if the Twins had last year’s bullpen, but this year it’s hard to reduce the organization’s depth in relievers.

Both of those solutions also ignore the problem of finding Span at-bats once he gets here. If he’s going to take at-bats from an outfielder, why not send one of them down? Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez should both have options, so the Twins don’t risk losing either one, and both have recently stalled in their development at the major leagues. But both are also very young raw players that the Twins knew would struggle. Plus they would replace them with another young, fairly raw player and they would be doing so during a pennant race when they’re just a couple of games out of first place.

And so they (and Denard) wait. And we wait too, because we’re not quite sure we believe. Span is harder to believe in because we’ve fought so hard to counter-balance the expectations heaped upon a first round pick that just wasn’t performing. For five years he struggled and for five years we tried to tell everyone that this was another draft failure. And that makes it a little harder to embrace the statistical changes we see this year. And saw this spring. And last fall.

And so we all wait. The Twins wait to see if a spot opens up due to injury or incompetence or even petulance. And we wait to get outraged and start our “Free Span” campaign.

And Denard waits for both.

Busch-wacked

How do you trap someone who is determined not to get bushwhacked? Well, you start with a fairly obvious trap. Then you devise the second trap, the one they put themselves into when they are smugly avoiding the obvious trap.

That’s the one I fell into. It started with an IM last week: What do you think of Buscher?

And suddenly I had visions of chin-ups with Jake Ryan:

TG: I don’t.
JR: Would you ever go out with her?
TG: Depends on how much you paid me.
JR: She’s not ugly.
TG: There’s nothin’ there, man. It’s not ugly. It’s just … void.

See, I was avoiding the obvious trap. For one-hundred years sportswriters and fans have put their faith in “the guy from the farm team”. And sometimes that worked out, which made them excited about the next guy who was called up. And sometimes it didn’t, which made them suspicious about the next guy who was called up.

And then the stats guys came along and tried to demonstrate that there were better methods for evaluating call-ups then how the guy before him did. Even if you had never seen them play before, these call-ups had been playing baseball for years, and looking at their stat lines could give us a feel for what the player might do in the big leagues.

Ignoring that history was a trap. Desperate for information, we often make snap judgments, like deciding a guy was "for real" based on 34 at-bats. That’s exactly how many at-bats Buscher has so far this season, and he’s hitting .353 with 12 RBI in 10 games. Concluding that he’s going to be successful based on that is falling into the obvious trap.

Because Buscher also has 1524 at-bats in the minors. In those at-bats, he’s hit .287, and had just 32 home runs over 5 seasons. And as a 27-year-old, he has been old for most of those leagues. In fact, he’s depressingly old to be breaking into the majors.

And so even though he’s been on the radar for the last two years, I haven’t paid much attention to him. I thought I knew Buscher. He wasn’t ugly. There’s just nothing there. And last year’s introduction to the majors, in which he hit .244 with very little power seemed to confirm it. I saw a void.

I’m wondering if I didn’t fall into a trap. Maybe I made up my mind a little too early. Or maybe I was looking for the star prospect instead of the reasonably priced fill-in. But whatever it was that bushwhacked me, it appears that Buscher isn’t who I though he was at all. And his minor league stats seem to show that:

In 2006, Buscher was what I thought he was – a failed third round college pick with the San Francisco Giants. He wasn’t hitting for average, in part because he wasn’t particularly good at controlling the strike zone. And he wasn’t hitting for any power at third base, which is almost mandatory there.

That’s when the Twin picked him up in the Rule 5 Minor League Draft. And in 2007, as a 26-year-old in AA and AAA, there were some real changes. He started hitting for a much higher average, and that’s not the only sign that he started learning how to hit. He also started drawing more walks than strikeouts, when he had previously struck out almost twice as much.

And finally (and for the Twins, most importantly), he started hitting for real power. To give that .500 slugging percentage some context, Justin Morneau is slugging .486 this year. And it’s not just because Buscher was hitting for a higher average – his “isolated power” number nearly doubled.

Which is not to suggest that we have another Morneau in the order. Buscher is 27 years old, and the ceiling for a 27-year-old prospect is that of a league average starter. But the good news is that the Twins would kill right now for a league average third baseman. And the other good news is that the Twins have their own history of a late bloomer manning third base for a couple of years. You can still see him on most Twins games. Or, at least after most Twins games.

It's Ron Coomer. He didn’t make his major league debut until he was 28 years old, but played third base for the Twins full-time for four years. He and Buscher aren’t terribly similar in their styles, but he’s a good example of how an older prospect with some power can carve out a useful major league career. Coomer only slugged over .500 in the majors once, and that was the year he was protected against right-handed pitchers. But he murdered southpaws, and ended up with 449 career RBI and an All-Star appearance.

Could we expect the same for Buscher? “Expect” is a little strong, but it’s not out of the question. Buscher’s minor league track record suggests that he won’t hit for this high of an average, but could hit for slightly better power. Best of all, the plate discipline we’re seeing is real. Also, what few stats I can find suggest he doesn’t struggle too much against left-handers, and he may get a chance to show that since Matt Macri was sent down yesterday.

At the very least, it looks like he’s worth giving a looksie. If we're a little lucky, maybe some of the teams in the AL Central will join me in being bushwhacked.

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Sorry I've been away for awhile. I don't even have an excuse. Just too much time doing other stuff. We'll see if I can't make it up to you this week. - John

For Elise

Lotsa good news/bad news stuff going on today. The bad news is the Twins were slapped silly this weekend by the White Sox. The good news is that I didn't see a single game, and haven't seen one since Wednesday due to a crazy schedule, so it doesn't seem real. The bad news is that means I can't be writing about baseball.

But the really good news is that today at 9:30 AM The Chatty Chatty Princess is "promoted" out of elementary school. And as I was thinking about what that meant, I flashed back to a story I wrote on her first day of kindergarten, so I'm rerunning that today. I hope you enjoy it.

I'd like to conclude this by saying check back tomorrow for Twins news, but I'm just not sure I'll be able to dive into it again tonight. We'll see. - John

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He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.

She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."

-------------

Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.

And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.

Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.

It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.

----------

Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.

He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.

But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.

It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.

He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.

So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.

And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."

Roster Tomfoolery

Life interfered with my baseball habit this weekend, so I didn't see much of Sunday's game, which means I don't have much in the way of insights. (I know, I know. I can picture the quizzical look on your face right now. "Insights? You've been providing insights?")

But the truth is, I'm not sure it would've mattered. Because three hours before the game started, Ron Gardenhire hinted during his radio show that when pitcher Scott Baker is activated (presumably for Thursday's start) the pitcher who will be sent down will be....third baseman Matt "Mother" Macri?

Mmmm. I become absolutely intoxicated whenever there's a wiff of roster tomfoolery in the air.

For those of you keeping track, sending Macri down would mean carrying thirteen pitchers on the 25-man roster. In the American League, most teams carry eleven pitchers. Some get by with ten. A few desperate ones carry twelve. The lucky thirteen happens about once a year by someone. And this year, that lucky team is our hometown nine.

The reason that we suddenly need eight pitchers in the bullpen isn't because the bullpen stinks. It's because the bullpen is slightly below average, and in particular because the wrong guys in the bullpen are slightly below average. And by "wrong" I mean "veterans who the Twins risk losing to waivers if they take them off of the major league roster".

It appears (and I'll admit I don't have the full story) that the top five names to be sent down to AAA would all need to pass through waivers. Those names are (in no particular order): Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Brian Bass, newly found lefty Craig Breslow and new bullpen member Boof Bonser. Unfortunately for Macri, his is the sixth name, and he doesn't have that limitation.

This story might be a lot more fun to write if I could build up some righteous indignation about this move. After all, it's really a result of the Twins failing to make decisions on some players they've become accusomed to. And this likely just means they're delaying those decisions a bit longer, though they appear inevitable.

But the truth is that I don't really have a problem with it. It will probably be a bit silly trying to find work for eight relievers, but that's the point of the move. The guy they trust the least right now looks to be Juan Rincon, and they're trying like hell to protect him. And what better way to protect a guy than to have seven relievers available in front of him?

We can argue if that is really worth their time an effort, but then we're swimming even further into the deep end. Rincon has declined, but he's not terrible. We don't know the full story. Maybe those elbow rumors true, and they think he needs some time to recover? Or less work? Or are they working on fixing something in his delivery? There are plenty of valid reasons to want to buy him some time, beyond his thirteen-year history with the organization.

And the negative effects seem to be miminal. There will be only one backup infielder for all four spots, and that person will usually be Brendan Harris. Harris is a good bench bat, and is an especially nice option because he can even pinch hit for Lamb against lefties. Plus, he is limited, but not embarassing, at three of the infield spots. And there's plenty of other flexibility. Casilla can backup at short, Punto can backup at second and third, and Lamb can backup at first. So can Michael Cuddyer.

(And I'll admit, I'm secretly hoping that the Twins work themselves into some situation where Michael Cuddyer ends up playing third base again for a few frames. I know Cuddy has his share of issues right now, but I can't believe there is ten times as much chatter about Joe Mauer playing third base as there is about Cuddyer moving back there. Mauer has never played a single game there. Cuddyer played there for most of the 2005 season. And he wasn't moved because he couldn't field. He was moved because it supposedly helped his hitting.)

Assuming people stay relatively healthy (Yes, Mr. Punto, I'm looking at you.) the biggest downside is that this limits Gardenhire to only being able to use one pinch-hitting move late most games. Because if Craig Monroe pinch hits for someone like Nick Punto, then Harris will need to replace him. Given some of Monroe's late game heroics, and the fact that the Twins would probably like to pinch hit for Casilla on occasion too, that's not a trivial option to surrender.

But this biggest question about this team right now, at least in my mind, is sorting out the bullpen. This move buys a little more time for that group to decide which ones will be good and which ones will be gone. And after this move stretches his roster to its limit, "gone" will be the only other option Gardenhire will have.