Holy Communion

There are pockets of baseball fans who are annoyed as hell by the NCAAs and I hear them that it's all too much. But it's still one of my favorite things about sports. Yesterday didn't provide the magic moment on TV that we wanted (though Belmont was damn close) but I still loved getting together with friends and strangers to watch the games. As a middle-aged father, I can count the times on one hand where I get to hang out with an old friend and do nothing but, well, hang out for way too long.

I still believe, like I wrote five years ago in the post below, that The Big Dance provides an opportunity for magic both on the court and wherever we gather. And I'll be gathering today at Senser's in Bloomington to watch the duration today, starting with (hopefully) the opening tip. I hope you can join us.

Holy Communion

(from 3/21/2003)

For me, it started in Philly, where the Big Five can be close to religion. Philadelphians are a passionate lot (as Kobe well knows), and the five (now six) division 1A college teams inside the city limits can draw a fanatic following, whether they're playing each other in the old Palestra or the new MegaBank-of-the-Moment Center.

The first round of the NCAA has turned into a religious holiday for many, and this year my wife (The Voice of Reason), my friends and I are choosing to worship. We've arranged care for the kids with my parents for the day, who don't really understand our fascination with this event, so it means even more to us that they agree to help. The congregation is gathering at America's Original Sports Bar and the service lasts approximately 11 hours. What makes it communal is the nonsense that we spew at each other between the nail-biting finishes. What makes it holy are the miracles that we invariably witness.

• "HOOOoolyyyyy CROSS!", Bob exclaims as we walk in at 11:45. #14 Holy Cross is only 2 points behind #3 Marquette, 14-12. It's too soon to be a big deal, so Bob uses the joke while he can. I wonder how long he's been saving it.



• The first beer arrives at 11:55 AM. It's part of the tradition of the tournament - the first beer has to arrive before noon. There's something liberating about snubbing social norms. We feel free and a little giddy.



• Matt walks in the bar and pulls up a seat. He has a 7-day-old baby at home. He's our new hero.



• There are three early games and they're all on big screens - with a small TV in the corner alternating between Fox News and CNN. It's there to ease our guilt about ignoring the real world for 11 hours. We can glance over occasionally, and feel like we're still good citizens for reading the news ticker.



• It turns out that Bob's joke didn't need to be used that early. Holy Cross is playing their hearts out - well enough to be a Cinderella-Sweet-Sixteen-kinda team. Except that Marquette came to play, too.
  
  We watch two talented, focused teams play good solid basketball for the entire second half. Aggressive defense. Hard fouls. Precise, quick ball movement. And gutsy shooting. In the end, it's Marquette's Travis Diener who makes the biggest shots, and we're robbed of a big ending by a stumble and a steal that puts the game out of reach for Holy Cross.
  
  When the game ends, the bar breaks into applause. It may be the best basketball game we'll see played all day.



• Al and Bob are doing their best Norm and Cliff impression. They just don't know it.
  Bob: We concluded with Andy the other day that you might be able to induce diabetes if you ate 30 Krispy Kreme doughnuts.
  The Voice of Reason: Why 30? Why not an even 3 dozen?
  Al: I spotted him six.
  Bob: Yeah. Eating 30 Krispy Kremes is one thing. But 36 is just crazy.



• The highlight you're probably seeing replayed today is from the Cal-NC State game, made even more spectacular because is was announced by Kevin Harlan. With 12 second left in overtime, NC State hits a three to take the lead, but Cal answers by racing down the court and draining a three with 5 seconds left (by a freshman, no less). And then NC State races down to the other end and just misses answering themselves.
  
  The game itself was competitive, but sloppy on both sides, and marred by officiating blunders at the end of regulation. The consensus opinion is that we wanted that to be the ending of the Holy Cross/Marquette game.



• The Voice of Reason: If I give you this credit card, can we start a tab?
  Hot Waitress [taking card and walking away]: Sure, sweetheart.
  The Voice of Reason [stunned, to Matt]: I'm sorry - did she just call me "Sweetheart"?
  Long Pause
  Matt [meekly]: Can I watch?



• The Southern Illinois (#11) vs Missouri (#6) game had something like 20+ lead changes and we were apparently wrong about Holy Cross/Marquette being the best game of the day. Missouri's center, Arthur Johnson, carried his team to a five point lead, but somehow the Salukis came back and tied the score at 71 with Missouri still having the ball for a last shot.
  
  But the Missouri player accidentally charges into Saluki Jermaine Dearman with five seconds left - and the official blows the call. He rewards Missouri with a foul on Dearman, who fouls out. Irate, he walks back to the bench to find the rest of his team on the edge of their seats, with their arms linked. He slides into place, another link in the chain.
  
  Missouri only drains the second free throw, so Southern Illinois is down by just one point with 1.5 seconds left. They get a decent look, but the shot doesn't go in. Before the shooter can walk off the court, a Missouri opponent is shaking hands with him. Good game, indeed.



• On the corner TV, Fox News is talking about French President Jacque Shirac. We can tell this because they have a graphic behind the announcer with the word "Shirac" and a picture of Shirac which only a rival campaign manager would love. Honestly, he looks like he's yelling at someone for mispronouncing a wine.
  
  Leave it to Fox News to pull something like that. Why not go the full nine yards and just put up a picture of Pepe LePugh? Or Napolean?



• The biggest "almost" upset comes from (#15) Utah State, who battled (#2) Kansas for the entire game. They pull within 3 points with 46 seconds left, but Kansas outlasts their charge.



• A commercial for the movie "Anger Management" comes on.
  Al (dryly): That'll be funny.
  John(increduously): Adam Sandler and Jack Nicholson?
  Andy (dryer still): Finally, they're together. Finally.



• University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (#12) has traded punches with Notre Dame (#5) for 47 minutes. More accurately, they've traded punches with Notre Dame's guard, Chris Thomas, who is literally willing his team to compete. He is scoring, rebounding, and dishing the ball. This would be a 20 point blowout if not for him.
  
  UM-W wasn't even supposed to be here. They made the tournament when they upset Butler in their league championship game. They are lead by senior guard Clay Tucker, who leads the team in scoring, assists and is second in rebounds. And they find themselves up by a point, with under a minute to go, and they have the ball.
  
  Their shot balances on the rim, but falls out and the Irish get the ball back and score on a loose ball putback by Torris Francis with 35 seconds to go. The Irish lead 70-69, but UM-W doesn't call a timeout. Instead, Clay Tucker calmly dribbles the ball across half court and waits for the clock to run down. If they make it, the Irish (and Thomas) won't get another turn. And if they miss....
  
  With 8 seconds left, Tucker starts his drive to the lane, looking for the shot to ice it. Notre Dame's defense comes in waves; one too many waves it seems. Because rather than shoot, Tucker finds 6' 8" UW-M forward Dylan Page, by himself, under the basket. The pass is made and Page goes up above the rim and lays it in the cylinder.
  
  And it rolls around the back of the rim.
  
  And out.
  
  And the game is over. Irish win, 70-69.
  
  We watch Page walk numbly to his bench with his team and start shaking hands.
  We all know the feeling. It's an emptiness. A throbbing too intense to be fully realized. A failing that hurts oneself most because it hurts others more.
  We look at each other. We exhale and shake our heads. We give our hearts to a 21-year-old kid that we just noticed. We want it to be different. We want to heal it. We want to heal him.
  
  But we're reminded that religions don't provide miracles, they provide communion. This wasn't the miracle we wanted to see, but it's the communion we wanted to feel.

Denard's Patience

School is back in session and you can't help but roam the halls marveling at the changes that took place over the summer. This year, the hot topic is the new girl from New York who nobody can take their eyes off.

I mean, holy cow. Have you see that game-changing speed? Eight steals so far in spring training? And room for power too? She looks like the whole package, except - well, she just doesn't seem to get it, you know? Maybe she's a little too used to being the center of attention and takes things for granted?

And quite suddenly you wonder if all that hubbub hasn't caused you to overlook that girl in American History. You know, the one that you had that thing for in eighth grade, but she was a little too stuck up. And then she started overrating herself, and that turned into a little insecurity, and she just wasn't walking around the same way anymore.

You haven't paid attention to her much, but this year there seems to be something a little more substantial about her. A quiet confidence, or even groundedness, perhaps? Who is she again?

Denard Span has alternated between "overlooked" and "whipping boy" for followers of this organization for several years. Some of that is out of convenience because Span has embodied two of the favorite Twins-critical paradigms. For starters, he's a first round draft pick and a position player, and the Twins have been short on success stories for both recently. Second, he's a light-hitting speedster, and many believe the Twins are too infatuated with "piranhas" like him.

But, to be fair, Span has done his fair share to deserve that criticism. At 24 years old, he's not particularly young, and he hasn't exceeded a 700 OPS since High A ball. With almost no power to speak of, he needs to be an on-base machine that can use his speed, but he's only been average at getting on base in the minors. So Span entered this spring as an aging ex-prospect with career minor league numbers that include a .285 batting average, a .350 on-base percentage and seven home runs over five years.

That's pretty bleak, and would've been a lot bleaker if not for August of last year. You may have read that Span's second half of 2007 was much better than his first half, which gave everyone involved some hope. And you may have read more cynical takes that Span really only had one great month. Both are true, but there might be something more substantial there.



Well, I suppose the optimist could look at that steadily rising batting average and get a little excited, but you can see what has the cynics worried. Span basically had one very good month, and by "very good" I mean he had about a half dozen extra hits fall in. That doesn't erase four years of skepticism.

But this might:

Um, sixteen walks in August, too? That suggests that Span wasn't just finding holes in the field, he was taking substantially different at-bats. That looks a lot like a change in patience, and the skyrocketing OBP looks like a lot like a major league asset.

Now, sometimes with a free-swinging player, they can see a surge like this just because they decide to keep the bat on their shoulder. Pitchers have decided they don't need to throw the player strikes, so the passive batter ends up walking a lot. But the batter also often strikes out a lot as they let quality pitches go past.

But Span's strikeouts in August were also the lowest of any month. Span historically strikes out twice as much as he walks, but in August he walked more than he struck out. That hadn't happend to him in any month for several years.

Now, this doesn't prove he's made an adjustment, but it gave cause for legitimate hope in spring training. Even in the limited at-bats a player has in spring training, you would hope that you would see some similar trends.

And so far, so good. Span has six walks and just three strikeouts. In 31 at-bats, most of which have been as a starter, he's hitting a reasonable .290. But his on-base percentage for the spring is .421. Those numbers look pretty consistent with what happened at the end of last year.

Which isn't to say that you're ready to forget all about that knockout from New York. But it might pay to take a second and third look a that girl you wrote off a couple of years ago. She might be proof that patience really does pay off.

Weekend Notes

Is there a more frustrating endeavor than to monitor spring training developments from 1200 miles away? I say "no". You can glean a smidgen of info from the stats, and a little more from the lineups, but mostly you need to watch the games.

For Twins fans, this weekend provided two opportunities to do so, and I was able to take advantage of one of them. The Voice of Reason and I had our annual Twins-Phillies bet riding on Saturday's game because it was on TV locally. Since she artfully arranged to have our kids dying Easter Eggs at my parents' house for the same three hours, we got to hunker down at Majors in Bloomington for a baseball date.

AAAAaaandddd.....unwiiiiinnnnnd

It was beautiful. And, because we view you all as our close friends, it seems only fitting we bring you along....

- Over at Stick and Ball Guy's blog, Ubelmann was kind (cruel?) enough to point out to us that the Twins have started Nick Punto at second base most of the time when Adam Everett was playing shorstop. It's a reasonable assumption that Gardenhire is interested in having his keystone combination play together in spring training. Yikes.

Sure enough, Punto played there for our game, too. My impression? It looks like he has rediscovered the plate discipline he lost midway through last season. I did not notice how he handled high pitches, which was part of last year's downfall.

(TVOR's reaction? "OOOH! Look at him move those tiny little legs to get to first base. Isn't he just adorable?".

Umm, OK. I just made that up. That would never happen. She wanted the Phils to win so bad that she would've been more likely to root for him to strain a hammy. She is, after all, from The City of Brotherly Love.)

Then, in yesterday's call-in radio show, Gardenhire was asked point blank whether Brendan Harris would be his starting second baseman. He refused to say that he would be.

And then, in Sunday's game, Harris missed yet another ground ball that should have been playable by 95% of all second baseman. And about 50% of all one-legged second basemen. To be fair, Dick Bremer said it was hit "in the perfect spot", of course. But in the replay, it looked like the perfect spot is about fifteen feet to the right of second base.

Which is a long way of saying that you shouldn't be shocked if Nick Punto is your starting second baseman this year. And even more shocking, I might not have a problem with it.

- Majors was great. I don't think I've been there to watch games more than a handful of times in my life, despite it being very close to may parents house, but it was fantastic. The food was very good, the TVs were everywhere, and the service was fantastic. And you have to love anyplace where a staff member confides that they got a whole one hour and 45 minutes of sleep last night.

- The Twins broke the game open versus JD "The Real Deal" Durbin, who bounced around last year before latching on with the Phils. He's battling for the 5th starter job versus Adam Eaton, who was pretty good versus the Twins. The Phils also re-signed JC Romero during the offseason. Oh, and Kyle Lohse rejected their 3-year, $21 million offer before he snapped up that 1-year, $5 million deal from the Cardinals.

Between Durbin's meltdown on Saturday and Lohse's and Romero's playoff performance last year, I almost have TVOR convinced that their our secret agents.

- It would have been nice to see the offense come alive versus some players who might make the Phils major league staff this season, but beating the hell out of some AAA guys makes for a pretty nice afternoon, too. The most impressive swing of the day came from Jason Kubel, who hit a no doubt home run to deep right field against a horrendous wind.

If you've seen any highlights of the game, you know the same wind played havoc with the gloves, but there was at least one play that drew a some low whistle in the bar. Phillies speedster Jimmy Rollins hit a line drive into the left field corner. Delmon Young chased it down, planted, and threw a strike (directly into the teeth of that wind) to second base. Rollins made it to second, but just barely. Young's arm is real.

That's it for tonight. The whole CF situation deserves more time that I've got. Check back later this week and we'll see if we can't break it down.

Tiptoeing through Public Domain Documents

I don't think this is especially ground-breaking, but this is kind of a cool document. Check out pages 12 (for ticket revenues) and page 4 for concessions. I tally about $39.4 M from ticket sales $6 M from concessions.

Anyone remember what deal the Twins made with FSN? Was that $10 M per year?

On Cuts and Alien Abductions

The Twins made some cuts yesterday, and not all of them were expected. When you break them down, you find some interesting things, like a children's puzzle, a cautionary tale, and evidence of an alien abduction.

Zach Day (P) – Two months ago, Day was a 5 to 3 favorite for the “Kenny Rogers Slot” winner, for the pitcher awarded a spot in Twins staff due to his veteranity rather than any promise of future performance. (And yes, the stress is on the “a” in veteranity. Same as “in-SAN-ity”.) Livan Hernandez changed that, fortunately. Day’s coming back from rotator cuff surgery, and provides all kinds of rhyming options for us literary types, so let’s all pray that he can find a way to pitch another day. Maybe as soon as in May?

Deolis Guerra (P) – He’s the young pitcher that the Twins got back in the Johan Santana trade, and I’m pretty sure that’s why he was in camp. I’ll be little surprised if he’s in camp next year, but pleasantly so, because that’s an invitation he’ll likely need to earn. As opposed to this one.

Oswaldo Sosa (P) – Where’s Oswaldo? New Britain, apparently, where the marketing department can now add that game to their scorecard’s “Kids Corner”. He’s a right-handed pitching prospect who was promoted to AA last year. He doesn’t look like he has an outstanding ceiling, but he might have a chance of seeing The Bigs next year. He was at spring training because the Twins added him to their 40 man roster last year, so they’re using his first option by sending him back down.

Jose Mijares (P) – He’s a left-handed reliever who made it as high as AAA last year. He’s the cut that nobody saw coming, because he wasn’t even really in camp. You see, he broke his arm in a car crash in Venezuela in January. He won’t be healthy until at least May, so this looks like a lost year for him, which is bad, because he’s on the 40 man roster, so I think this is his third option.

Armondo Gabino (P) – He’s a right-handed middle reliever in AA, and not a particularly dominant one at that. He’s also not on the 40 man roster. I honestly wonder why he was in camp to begin with.

Brian Duensing (P) – Duensing might be the most surprising cut of the day. He was considered a dark horse candidate for that fifth spot in the rotation entering camp and should be a candidate to be called up during the year. After all, he’s a lefty that posted a 3.24 ERA in Rochester last year, and his peripheral stats were solid, if not spectacular. But he had a terrible camp, especially struggling with his control. I wonder if he's hiding some injury, and I wonder if the team figured the same thing. Now he can concentrate on getting better.

Jose Morales (C) – Morales was assumed to be first in line if anything happens to Mike Redmond or Joe Mauer. That might not be the case now. The Twins kept Eli Whiteside in the major league camp, and he has plenty of AAA experience and even a cup of coffee with Baltimore. Or maybe the Twins sent Morales down because they want him to focus on recovering from that nasty ankly injury he suffered last year. Hard to say.

Jeff Christy & Allen de San Miguel (C) - Two more catchers that were sent down. Neither of them made it out of AA last year, and neither cleared .225 anyplace where they had significant at-bats. Of course, I could say the same thing about a third catcher that is still in camp. Andrew Butera hit .201 in AA last year, but was part of the “loot” the Twins got back in the Luis Castillo trade. Was that the difference? Did the coaching staff just want to see more of him? Or did he just end up with the long straw?

Felix Molina (2B) – He’s been stuck in New Britain for over two years. This isn’t a strong indication that it won’t be three. (Hooray double negatives!)

Darnell McDonald (OF) – The Twins are silly with outfielders similar to McDonald, none of whom had a sore lower back. And that’s probably because they’re also all significantly younger than the 29-year-old McDonald. It’s nice he was in camp, but he might have been most valuable as cautionary tale to the youngsters. Make sure you seize this opportunity boys, because you can blink and suddenly you’re 28 years old and wondering if you’ll ever make it back.

Alejandro Machado (SS) – So let me get this straight. In the first round of cuts, Ron Gardenhire sent down a veteran pitcher (Day), the presumed favorite as third catcher (Morales), and now he’s sending down a middle infielder who is a defensive specialist (Machado)? Are we sure this is Ron Gardenhire? Is it possible he’s been replace by some alien being? Or maybe he and Toby have switched bodies, like in Freaky Friday? This can’t be good for Nick Punto.

Notes from Beating the Yankees

For the first time today, Twins fans could see the 2008 Twins on TV this afternoon, and thanks to TIVO, I was able to watch a little. So it's time for a few random notes....

Defense 1.0
One of the things that was supposed to excite Twins fans about Carlos Gomez was the defense he would bring to center field. That was not in evidence today. In the second inning, Gomez failed to reach one ball over his head, failed to reach another that looked like he might have got if he had read it earlier. Then he threw a ball (supposedly) home, meaning it was thirty feet up the first base line. Apparently, I missed another throw later that was similarly bad.

According to Baseball Prospectus defensive ratings, he wasn't particularly good last year either, ssaving just one run in his 35 games in left and right field. Now, to be fair, they also said he was quite a bit better than average in cetner field in AAA and AA over the last two years.

I don't particularly trust defensive metrics, and my judgement of whether those balls were catchable might not be terribly fair. Certainly, both were tagged hard, and right at him, and might have been hard to read. It appears that Gomez has the physical tools, namely speed and a strong arm, to play center field at a very high level. But my first impression is that he doesn't read hits very early, and he certainly didn't show that he has tamed that cannon on his shoulder. I hope my first impressions are wrong.

Lineup Gabbin
Manager Ron Gardenhire was asked by ESPN's announcers how he might like to bunch his big hitters in the regular season. He replied:

2nd - Joe Mauer
3rd - Michael Cuddyer
4th - Justin Morneau
5th - Delmon Young
6th - Mike Lamb

Bravo - Joe Mauer batting second. He's left-handed, he can get on base, he can take pitches, he can move runners around the bases, either by hitting or with his patience. I'm very excited to see what he could do in that slot for a full year.

Bravo - Cuddyer batting third and Delmon Young batting fifth. Batting between Mauer and Morneau requires enough power to move Mauer around the bases and enough on-base percentage to set the table for Morneau. Cuddyer is far from the perfect #3 hitter, but he's got some power and his on-base percentage last year was .356. Delmon Young's, on the other hand, was just .316. Young might be the long term answer, but I'd take Cuddyer right now.

Boo - Mike Lamb batting sixth. OK, this is a half-hearted boo, but I think I'd rather see Jason Kubel there. The truth is that statistically, they're very similar. Lamb had better overall stats, but he also played less and was more protected than Kubel against lefties (and that's saying something, because Kubel only faced southpaws 72 times last year). Plus, Kubel hit significantly better towards the end of last year while Lamb was a bit worse. I suspect Kubel will have a chance to gain that spot as the year goes on.

Defensive Worries 2.0
Lost in the concerns about Gomez's misplays were the nonplays that Brendan Harris made at second base. The three-run second innning could have ended with after the first run had he made a play on a ground ball between him and second base. And later in the game he failed to come up with another ball that was to his left, even though it appeared he was playing in shallow right field.

I've been a fan of the Twins acquiring Harris, and am still hopeful that he'll be able to win the second base job, but it's worth noting just how poorly he was ranked last year defensively. BP estimated he cost his team 24 runs between his time at shortstop and second base, including 12 runs in just 46 games at second. Yikes. That's bad.

Just how bad? You might remember from last week that over 500 at-bats, a 10 point change in OPS is worth about two runs. So Harris, who had a very respectable 777 OPS last year, gave back about 120 points of that with his defense. That's not as bad as Nick Punto, but it's worse overall (quite a bit worse, actually) than Jason Tyner.

In that context, Harris' defense will definitely be worth paying attention to this year. I've always felt like the Metrodome was relatively forgiving to second basemen, because the turf is fast and smooth, which allows second basemen to play in shallow right field when nobody is on base. But I would think that would have been the case for Harris in the Devil Rays' tin can of a ballpark, too.

March 4th

If you're pining for Joe Nathan to sign that long term extension, and if you're a little obsessive about dates, today is your day. It was March 4th, 2004 when Nathan signed his first multi-year deal with the Twins, the same offseason he was traded.

That deal didn't last the full two years, because he signed his current contract one year later. In fact, exactly one year later, on March 4, 2005. That's also the day the Twins announced another multi-year deal with Juan Rincon.

And the Twins weren't finished there. They also waited until spring training to sign another of their relievers to a long-term extension in 2007. That was Jesse Crain, who they signed to a three-year deal, though it wasn't on March 4th. It was a week earlier, on the 27th of February.

Considering that both sides seem to want a deal, I'm a little surprised we haven't seen a deal get done. Three weeks ago, it sure seemed like we found some common ground:

"From Nathan’s standpoint, he has a choice. He can pitch for $6 million next year and then test the market. The closer market has exploded lately, including a $46 million, four-year contract to the 32-year-old Francisco Cordero. If Nathan pitches well this year, the 34-year-old can likely expect at least a three-year deal. That would probably come in around $40 million, which means he’ll make $46M over the next four years. Or he can take less money now, and have that money in hand, whether or not his arm falls off in 2008.

Does that leave the two sides enough common ground? Maybe. How about a deal that rips up the last year on his contract and gives Nathan a $6 million signing bonus, along with salaries over the next four years of $7M, $8M, $9M, and $10M. That brings the total to $40 million over the next four years.

That gives Nathan his big payday a year early at 85% of its value. It gives the Twins a premier closer attached to a very desirable contract that they can move if the team goes south. Nathan gives up $6M, but becomes wealthy beyond his dreams, and the Twins take on all the injury risk."

We can debate the particulars - for instance, maybe another million per year and only a $4M bonus - but I honestly can't figure out which side would be messing with a deal like that. Maybe Nathan wants a no-trade clause, or a fifth year. Or maybe the Twins want an option year, or want to make sure that Nathan's velocity improves again this spring, like it seemingly needs to do every spring.

Or maybe one of the sides isn't as serious as we might think. In which case, maybe this year March 4th will be known for yet one more contract extension to a reliever - for Pat Neshek.

Watching the Lineups

Spring training games, especially early spring training games, are sort of a mixed blessing. On the one hand, for those of us who just love to talk baseball or at least listen to baseball talk, we finally have a two hour outlet. On the other hand, much as we may wish differently, that’s almost all that listening to spring training games is good for. I’m not going to get a great sense of Carlos Gomez strike zone judgment or Brendan Harris’ range from the radio broadcast.

And, of course, performance counts for next to nothing, especially this early. If you REALLY want to track these guys, wait until early next week and then print off their statistics. Then, do it again the last week of March and subtract the first list from it. That’s closer to what coaches perceive as each player’s performance. One of the traps of spring training is to give any credence to these first two weeks of stats, when players are as likely to face a AA player as a major leaguer.

Right now, about the only thing that means anything are the lineups. Generally, the more serious a coaching staff is about a player, the more likely they are to play early in a game, for at least two reasons. First, because that way they can make sure they get their reps in, even if the game is rained out or game situations force a lineup adjustment. But mostly it’s because they are more likely to face major leaugers early in a game.

So, let’s look at some box scores, focusin on things that look a little different than I would have thought, and see if it gives us any hints about what the Twins are thinking.

Center Field
Jason Pridie has yet to start a game in center field this spring. In fact, he has yet to start a game at any position. He’s played in each game this spring, but it’s always been as a backup outfielder, twice for Carlos Gomez in center field and twice for Michael Cuddyer in right field.

I think most of us assumed that the battle for center field this spring would be between Pridie and Gomez, with Denard Span having only an outside chance. Instead, Span and Gomez have each had two starts, and Pridie has zero. For now, it looks like he’s pretty clearly the third choice, and may be thought of as a candidate for fifth outfielder instead of center fielder.

The problem, of course, is that if Gomez or Span makes the team, the Twins already have five outfielders without Pridie. To keep Pridie and a twelfth pitcher means the only other bench players are Mike Redmond and Nick Punto. That doesn’t sound very Gardenhirish.

Second Base
Four games, three candidates, so you know that one of them has two starts so far. And that person is…sigh.

It’s Punto, of course. Now, before we start getting all apocalyptic, understand that both Brendan Harris and Alexi Casilla have also received two starts, it’s just that their second was at shortstop. I still refuse to believe that Nick Punto is going to be the starting second baseman on this team, and again, I like him. I think he’s going to bounce back fairly strong. But I just can’t picture the coaching staff voluntarily subjecting themselves to that again.

The Rotation
I guess I wasn’t too surprised to see Randy Keisler penciled in for a start, since I suspect he's just keeping it warm for Francisco Liriano. But why isn’t Kevin Slowey starting games? His only appearance thus far has been after Boof Bonser on Friday.

The person starting in his place is today’s starter, Glen Perkins. Perkins has already made an appearance this year, and it wasn’t as a starter, and he got shelled, so this likely doesn’t mean anything. But I’m still puzzled by why Slowey wasn’t the default choice.

For now we’ll just file it away for future reference as we peruse those box scores. If you're like me and can't listen to the games live (thank god for archived games on GameDay Audio), that's about all you're likely to get. But at this point in the spring, that isn't bad.


Twins Round Table
In case you're interested, I found a little time (very little, unfortunately) to participate in a round table with Sky at SkyKing162.com and Nick from HomerDerby.com. I come off sounding like Sid Hartman without the throat clearing, but it's still fun to read.

Escaping to Average

At some point last year, I was researching just how dismal the Twins designated hitter situation had become. (I suspect it was shortly after one of Jason Tyner's 58 at-bats there.) And, while it's certainly damning with faint praise, I found that it wasn't quite as dismal as I had imagined. Here is the OPS (On-base Plus Slugging percentage) that each team put up with their designated hitter last year:

OK, so the Twins were 60 OPS points lower than the league average, but it turns out that the DH isn't as easy a spot to fill as you might think. I mean, look at the Angels next to the bottom of that list. When they were rumored to be chasing Hunter, everyone wondered why they would do that when they had just signed Gary Matthews Jr. last year. Now we know. They certainly had a spot to fill.

So how about 2008? I'm tempted to turn this in a "Get to Know" column, but I'm also tempted to get back to my life, so let's do an abbreviated version...

I've already stated that I think the 25-year-old Kubel has a decent chance of moving up that list. A 50 point improvement seems reasonable, and puts him in the middle of that next group of players. What does that mean to the Twins? Well, if you're looking for some back of the napkin figuring...

1. +10 points of OPS over 500 at-bats is about 2 runs.
2. +10 runs over a year is equal to about one win.
3. So a 50 OPS improvement for Kubel might be worth about one run over the course of the year.

But the math gets a little more complicated for Kubel, because he didn't have 500 at-bats. He only had 418 at-bats, while the Twins gave 543 at-bats to various DHs last year. If Kubel, who should stay healthy and have more of Gardy's confidence this year, gets that many at-bats and shows that improvement, it's worth another win, and almost two.

That's a pretty rough estimate, and it ignores that those at-bats were taken by somebody else last year, but since that someone was often Rondell White or Jason Tyner, I'll stick with it for now. The bigger concern is that the presence of Craig Monroe on the roster could eat into those bats significantly, especially versus left-handers. Though that might not be such a bad thing eitehr.

Still, there's room for plenty of hope here. Last year might not have bee quite as bad as it seemed, but it was pretty bad. Twins have two reasons - Kubels improvement and Kubel's health - to expect a significant improvement. Even if it's only to the middle of the pack.

Examining the Filler

We spent a good part of last year lamenting the Twins offense, and for good reason. It was dissappointing that the team ended up with the third worst offense in the American League, scoring just 718 runs. But what was truly maddening is that it was also so very fixable.

The Twins didn't need to make any major changes. They just needed to replace some offensive black holes. When Rondell White and Jeff Cirillo went down a week into the season, they Twins lacked a designated hitter. When Nick Punto slumped and slumped bad, there were no options to replace him. When Luis Castillo was gimpy, or Michael Cuddyer dinged up, or Alexi Casilla floundering, there were no offensive options to replace them.

That changed this offseason. Almost half of the Twins lineup will change this year, but for the most part, the Twins moves were designed to fill gaps around a core lineup. Third base was plugged. Designated hitter was filled. In fact, it was filled twice. And so, I wondered what we might expect from each of the new positions, and just how many more runs the Twins might score this year. Let's see what we get:

Center Field - ('07 - 836 OPS, mostly by Torii Hunter. '08 - ???)
It's going to be worse, but you know what? Let's save this one for last. We'll get back to it, I swear.

Shortstop - ('07 - 657 OPS, mostly by Jason Bartlett. '08 - Adam Everett, with an OPS of 599 last year)
Bartlett actually hit quite a bit better than the average shortstop for the Twins last year, with a 701 OPS. The overall average was brought down by giving 81 at-bats to Nick Punto, who had a shockingly bad 327 OPS at the position.

The offensive production will get worse with Adam Everett in the position. That 599 OPS was put up in the NL and in a hitter's park. If Everett is ever batting anywhere in the Twins lineup other than 9th, it means the Twins have some real offensive problems. The hope is that his outstanding glove will make up for Jason Bartlett's 10,963 errors last season. And that might just be true. But this is another position where the Twins offense will get worse, not better.

Left Field - ('07 - 677 OPS, mostly by Jason Kubel. '08 - Delmon Young, with a 724 OPS last year)
A 677 OPS from left fielders last year. Good golly. I hope Jacque Jones got a kick out of that. If you're looking for the number one reason the '07 team fell short, this is the one I think we could least foresee. Kubel hit 785 for the year, but he only got half the at-bats for the position. The rest were soaked up by Jason Tyner, Lew Ford, and an especially putrid performance from Rondell White.

It's reasonable to expect a slight improvement from Young, with the chance of significant improvement if something (particularly adding a batting eye) clicks for the 22-year-old.

Designated Hitter - ('07 - 741 OPS, mostly by Jason Kubel. '08 - Jason Kubel, with a 785 OPS last year).
Yes, Jason Kubel led the team in starts at two positions last year. That, by itself, is a good sign for the gimpy one. Another is that he gradually impoved throughout the year. And the third is that he is just 25 years old. I've said it for the last two years, but watch our for Kubel this year.

Again, it's reasonable to expect a small bump in offense here. Last year, Kubel had only 114 at-bats from the DH position. DH wasn't the offensive sink hole that left field and third base were, but a solid year from Kubel should outpace last year's mark, especially if it's supplemented by appearances from Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer.

Second Base - ('07 - 640 OPS by, mostly by Luis Castillo. '08 - Brendan Harris, with a 799 OPS last year)
Like shortstop, the primary player wasn't the primary contributor to this offensive futility. Castillo posted a 728 OPS with the Twins, but Nick Punto(58 AB - 614 OPS), Luis Rodriguez (46 AB - 618 OPS) and especially Alexi Casilla (177 AB - 517 OPS) were absolutely terrible. The Twins spent most of last year two position players short, but after the trade deadline, they clearly were three.

Harris, judging by last year's numbers, is a significant upgrade. He's just 27, but it's worth noting that those numbers look like his ceiling if you put them in the context of his minor league career. Still, this looks like a position where the Twins will have a moderate upgrade, with plenty of additional upside due to the depths of last year's performances.

Third Base - ('07 - 631 OPS, mostly by Nick Punto. '08 - Mike Lamb, with a 819 OPS last year)
Speaking of depths, that 631 OPS was the worst OPS of any group of third basemen last year in the American League. Starting third baseman Punto actually brought the number lower, with just a 600 OPS in his 323 at-bats in the postion. And that's on top of the number-crunching he did at shortstop and second base. I'm fairly certain that Punto will rebound well this year, but there is no way to evaluate his 2007 as anything more than an out-making machine. That he was given 536 plate appearances last year tells you exactly how short the Twins were of any depth.

Lamb likely fixes 2/3 of that problem. He won't post a 819 OPS because he was protected last year against left-handers. But he'll still be an exceptional upgrade over the group the Twins played there last year.

Conclusion -
I count one slight downgrade (SS), two slight upgrades (LF, DH), one moderate upgrade (2B) and one major upgrade (3B). Which brings us back to center field, which is clearly a major downgrade.

Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson are still available on the free agent market. Patterson posted a 690 OPS last year, so he would likely be a moderate downgrade to Hunter at best. Plus, he bats left-handed, and has never hit lefties. Since Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez also bat left-handed, it's not like he could platoon with anyone that they can't.

But Lofton had a 781 OPS last year. He can bat lead off, sporting a .367 OBP last year, and the Twins need both of those traits on their team. And if he has a similar year this year, he represents a minor downgrade at center field. I'm as excited as the next guy to see what Pridie and Gomez might bring to the team, but Lofton is an awfully good fit for this team if they think they can compete this year. And given that they could score quite a few more runs, that isn't a far-fetched idea.

For now, since we don't know what's happening in center field, let's call this incomplete. We know the Twins offense will be better, and they'll certainly be deeper. Last year the Twins struggled through most of the season with two holes in their lineup and ended the season with three. This year, the holes are filled, and there is some additional filler in the form of Craig Monroe (and maybe even Nick Punto) on the bench.

The Twins offense will almost certainly be better this year, but we likely won't know how much better until the center field position is resolved.

On Lead Off Candidates and Road Trips

So here are somethings you would probably know about blogs if you thought about it, but you probably haven't.

1. We have day jobs. Thus,
2. We don't really have much time for this stuff. And so,
3. A lot of time, we don't really have much time to clean these up.

So, iIf you're looking for highly polished writing, blogs may not be your domain. Not that there aren't advantages that might offset that, like an incredibly high level of independence, or an ability to take risks. And sometime stories can be and are polished. But a good chunk of the time, we sit down to write, and don't necessarily know where we're going. You can either sit in the passenger seat with us and join us for the ride, or bark at us from the back seat.

So, with that introduction, welcome to my little late night road trip. The questions on the table are: who will be the Twins leadoff hitter next year? Should it matter? Will it matter?

Carlos Gomez - Probably the most popular choice is Gomez, the speedy, young, not-ready-for-prime-time center fielder that headlined the trade package for Johan Santana. The consensus opinion seems to be that he's not ready (and maybe not close to ready) to start at center field (or anywhere, really) in the majors. However, the consensus also says that his status as the "blue chip" in the Santana deal will mean the Twins must start the season with him on the major league roster.

I'm not sure I buy that logic. The Twins have never been a franchise to rush a player just because the fans thought that player should be ready. If anything, the opposite has been true, whether it's been Justin Morneau, Jason Bartlett or Pat Neshek. Or Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel or Matt Garza. Or Scott Baker. Or Bobby Kielty. Or Johan Santana, for chrissakes. How much further should we go?

And for all the talk about what the Twins MUST do, consider exactly how much they've cared about public relations in the last year. They traded away Luis Castillo in the middle of the season. They let the face of the franchise, Torii Hunter, walk. They traded away a pitcher who could legitimately lay claim to the best pitcher in the history of this team. And they traded away their top prospect from last year. These are hardly the acts of someone watching the popularity polls.

And finally, even if Gomez does shine in spring training and wins the CF job, would Ron Gardenhire throw the rookie into the leadoff spot? This franchise, and this coaching staff especially, loves to guard their young. There are high hopes attached to Gomez. If he is in this lineup, is there anyway it's above the eighth spot in the order?

Jason Pridie/Denard Span - Of course, the problem with dismissing Gomez is that there aren't any better alternatives. I laid out my choice for center field several weeks ago, arguing that a platoon of Craig Monroe and Jason Pridie gives us the best of both players. But neither of them have the bat smarts or plate discipline to bat leadoff, even against the opposite hand pitchers.

I suppose Denard Span could become the default choice if he either has a monster spring or seems like the least valuable prospect to be messed up long term. At least he can draw a walk, though I weep for this offense if that's what it's reduced to.

And if he makes the team, just how many outfielders do we have on this team? I count at least four others - Cuddyer, Young, Monroe, and Kubel - and just who plays center field if Span is banged up for a couple of days? So that means that either Gardenhire goes will just eleven pitchers (he's already said he wants 12), or one backup infielder (a moral deficiency for an ex-gloveman) or no "true" backup centerfielder. That's the kind of dilemna that makes Gardy reconsider much bigger decisions, justifiably or not. And he'd need to make that decision if Gomez makes the team, too.

Corey Patterson/Kenny Lofton - Earlier tonight someone mentioned Lofton and Patterson not signing yet, along with the line that has probably been repeated roughly 88% of the time their names have arisen during this offseason: "We'll see what happens when it gets closer to spring training." Um, HELLO! It is spring training! And two of the starting center fielders from last year's teams still haven't signed yet! And they're both lead-off type guys!

I wouldn't be shocked if one of them is on the Twins by Opening Day, and I would be shocked if the Twins haven't been in contact with their agents over the last week or so. After all, the top two in-house candidates for center field, Gomez and Pridie, were not with the Twins last year so the Twins may just have a lets-see-what-we-got approach. And with two solid free agent backup plans waiting in the wings, why not? So long as they're signed to one-year deals, there could be worse moves.

Joe Mauer - If it's not Gomez and it's not Span and it's not a free agent, then the Twins really have an issue that will be fun to watch solve. The only person left on the roster who is even remotely capapble of batting leadoff is Mauer, but that would mean sacrificing him from the middle of the lineup. Mauer-Cuddyer-Morneau-Young seem like a logical string of batters to handle the 3 through 6 spots, or maybe even the 2 through 5 spots in the order. But would Gardenhire thumb his nose at baseball convention by making them 1 through 4? Or even bat Mauer at leadoff and the other three in the 3 through 5 spots?

I doubt it. Traditionally, Gardenhire has built his lineups from the middle out. And yes, I mean "traditionally" in that Gardenhire has built lineups that way in the past, and that one could use that word to describe Gardenhire's lineup. (And actions.)

Alexi Casilla - Hmmm. While we're talking about prospects that might break out this spring, let's not forget Alexi. In the same way that Gomez could solve a lot of problems by hitting the ground running, so could Casilla, and maybe even moreso. If he seized the second base job from Brendan Harris, Casilla could bat leadoff, and Harris could be that second backup infielder and be a productive bat off the bench. In terms of producing the kind of balanced roster that makes the coaching staff all warm 'n cuddly inside, Casilla thriving might be the best case scenario.

???? - The real danger here becomes that the coaching staff doesn't like any of these options and instead looks to bring someone north who isn't ready. After all, Gomez might nominally fit that round hole, if if requires taking a power grinder to those pointy corners.

But, to be fair, the leadoff spot has been a significant piece for the Twins, despite what all the computer models tell us should happen. Shannon Stewart undoubtedly fueled the 2003 season, Luis Castillo's hot streak corresponded with the 2006 surge, and losing Matt Lawton in 2001 and Castillo in 2007 essentially ended all hope those seasons. For whatever reason, this spot has been an important one for the Twins.

And so the road trip ends, though I'm not sure where. I seem to have more questions now than when I started. I think it's an important role for the Twins - but not so important that the Twins should risk the development of underdone prospects by starting them there. I don't think the player who fills that role should come from center field - but I'm completely unable to identify anyone else to fill it.

And so I'll do what the rest of the organization will do. I'll sit and watch what develops over the next couple of weeks and see if an answer reveals itself. Huh. Maybe this road trip isn't over after all.

Reviewing PECOTA

So, yesterday I didn't post, and to be honest, it just kind of slipped my mind. And then it almost did again today. You would think after doing this for five years, it would sort of be second nature, and for the most part it is, but occasionally, I just kind of forget.

Fortunately, the editor of MNGameday.com, Tom Genrich, provided links to a couple of other awfully well done stories. At the top of the page, he linked to Nick Nelson's solid spring training preview, which I appreciated because I just hadn't taken the time to think about all that stuff. I'd love to give my two cents on a bunch of that stuff, and hope to soon.

And then over at SBG's site, Ubelmann pointed out that Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings (subscription required) came out and had the Twins winning 74 games and finishing 4th in the AL Central. Ubelmann thinks that sounds about right. To me, it seems a bit low, but I haven't even done any back-of-the-napkin figuring on that, and we'll need to get to that later. Hey, a that's my second future column idea.

PECOTA, in case you're wondering, stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. For those of you who made it through that acronym and are still awake, it is what it says it is - it's a formula for comparing players to previous players based on their performance. The hope is that by looking at how similar players developed, one can predict how current players develop. And then, when you see how close it came to the results, it allows the owner to try and optimize the algorithm for the next year with new data.

You see it referenced more and more, and I'll admit I've become increasingly uncomfortable with the weight it's given. (3rd column idea!) It would seem to be especially difficult to trust it when used for a purpose for which it isn't really intended - predicting the results of teams instead of individual players.

After all, even if it nailed exactly the rates at which each player would perform, the results are still dependent on playing time. And then you need to convert those runs scored and run against to wins and losses. Every layer adds a level of uncertainty that makes the process seem increasingly masturbatory - kinda fun but mostly kind of pathetic. Kinda like blogging.

Anyhoo, in true PECOTA fashion, it seems like there should be a nice empirical test that we can fun to get a sense if we should pay any attention to it, and that is to compare last year's results to what PECOTA predicated. How did it do?

Well, for all my doubts, it didn't do a half bad job. It got three of the four playoff teams in the AL (just missed the Twins) and about three of the four (more or less) in the NL, too. Overall, on the average, it's usually off by a handful of 3.5 to 5 games. It was fairly accurate at predicting the general finish of a team.

On the other hand, it was off by seven games or more for 1/3 of the teams in the league, and seven games is plenty significant when the worst and best team in a league are 30 games apart. The Twins need to hope that PECOTA pegs them as poorly as it did last year - only in the other direction.

Hoping for Awesome

Earlier this week I dodged the real question that the Twins face with regard to Joe Nathan. The question isn’t is Nathan awesome? He is, and nationwide, everyone knows he’s awesome. And the question (today) isn’t whether he’s valuable. On Monday we talked about just how valuable he is, and we didn’t resort to ‘Saves’ to do it. No, the question today is should the Twins try to sign Nathan to a long-term extension, and if so, for how much?

Because while Nathan has been great, and exceedingly valuable, he might still be replaceable. At first glance, there’s only one obvious candidate. Pat Neshek has been every bit as dominant by just about any metric as Nathan, though his quirky mechanics and late-season injuries might (and should) give pause to fans. After him, there are lesser candidates both to replace Nathan, or to replace Neshek in the eighth inning.

For instance, there is Juan Rincon, who was Nathan’s heir apparent before last year, but his effectiveness has steadily decreased over the last three years. Or Jesse Crain, another young phenom who is, returning from a shoulder injury this season. (And just a quick note: that is often an injury that a pitcher doesn’t fully recover from.) And others will be able to bring up other candidates from the Twins stable of young starting pitchers. I can think of three off the top of my head.

And almost all of these suggestions will be worth at least a little consideration, because if there is one thing that the Twins have done well over the last twenty years, it’s been to develop a first rate bullpen. And that’s been especially true under manager Ron Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson.

This is the tandem that turned LaTroy Hawkins from meltdown specialist to dominant right-handed setup man. They turned Eddie Guardado from left-handed soldier into a closer. They coaxed several years of usefulness out of JC Romero, which deserves combat pay on top of any accolades. And they’ve turned spare parts from other organizations, like Matt Guerrier, Denys Reyes and yes, Joe Nathan, into consistently reliable relievers.

Sooner or later, whether you’re an organization or an individual, you have to start trusting in your strengths. Developing relievers and closers has been a strength of this organization for twenty years with the last real flop being Ron “Shudder” Davis. It’s not a sure thing that the Twins can replace Nathan in the bullpen, but if you’re looking for a gamble that will save you $12 million, this is a pretty good one.

Which doesn’t mean you don’t offer Nathan an extension, it just means you do so from a position of strength. The Twins don’t need to get this deal done. They shouldn’t pull the trigger on this kind of deal unless they’re getting a contract that they think will be an asset over the next few years, and maybe they can offer money up front (and the guarantee of a multi-year deal) to get that concession. Above all, it CANNOT have a no-trade clause, in any way, shape or form. That’s a deal-breaker.

From Nathan’s standpoint, he has a choice. He can pitch for $6 million next year and then test the market. The closer market has exploded lately, including a $46 million, four-year contract to the 32-year-old Francisco Cordero. If Nathan pitches well this year, the 34-year-old can likely expect at least a three-year deal. That would probably come in around $40 million, which means he’ll make $46M over the next four years. Or he can take less money now, and have that money in hand, whether or not his arm falls off in 2008.

Does that leave the two sides enough common ground? Maybe. How about a deal that rips up the last year on his contract and gives Nathan a $6 million signing bonus, along with salaries over the next four years of $7M, $8M, $9M, and $10M. That brings the total to $40 million over the next four years.

That gives Nathan his big payday a year early at 85% of its value. It gives the Twins a premier closer attached to a very desirable contract that they can move if the team goes south. Nathan gives up $6M, but becomes wealthy beyond his dreams, and the Twins take on all the injury risk.

And if that doesn’t get the deal done, well, the Twins have plenty of options. The next step would be to begin negotiations with Pat Neshek on a deal, maybe as long as four years. He won’t get to arbitration until 2010, but you never have more leverage with a guy than when he’s not a closer. After all, the team gets to decide who is on the mound in the ninth. That’s an insight that the Twins have consistently leveraged in the spring, after they’ve confirmed their relievers are healthy.

The step after that would be to let Nathan have another great year and then trade him at the trade deadline, where relievers have been incredibly valuable. And Nathan’s next step would obviously be to become incredibly rich while picking the city in which he practices his craft.

Either way, both the Twins and Nathan have a chance to come out winners. So long as he stays awesome.

Pie

Usually, you don’t see this level of giddiness following a two-hour musical remembrance of the Holocaust. Not that it wasn’t warranted.

“Did you hear how we got the most applause?” were the first words out of The Chatty Chatty Princess’s mouth.

“Yes, you did,” knowing precisely why. And it wasn’t for the reason she thought.

We wound our way through other Children’s Choir members in the green room at Orchestra Hall, found our way out, and walked back to the car. Or at least The Voice of Reason and I walked. My 10-year-old probably thought she was walking, but was closer to twirling, despite never really going around in a circle. Meanwhile, I was preoccupied for the 323rd time by how freaking cold this winter was.

Cold and dark and sick. And not just me. The whole family has been cold and sick for weeks. And it was late and there were dirty dinner dishes stacked next to the sink and lunches to be made and laundry to be done and a stupid post on Livan Hernandez to write. My wife and I had already decided we would be going straight home.

So we hurtled down 35W as a monologue emerged from the back seat. Underneath it, I whispered, “I want pie”.

“Fine,” TVOR sighed.

I don’t know why the night called for pie. I suspect it’s some submerged childhood memory, or possibly it’s genetic, but after a night on stage, there must be pie. These last couple of weeks hadn’t been easy, for her or for us, and this was the payoff. This night without pie would be a flower picked but not smelled.

TCCP hovered approximately four inches above the booth bench in a perpetual state of motion. TVOR watched with a perpetual state of amusement. And I sat across from them, feeling around the table with my heart, soaking in the joy, in the same way TCCP had soaked in something else during that standing ovation.

The music and message had been strong, but the payoff for the parents wasn’t in the haunting tunes or pictures. Our payoff was a chance to join a throng in expressing the hope and emotion we felt towards our kids. And to watch the kids feel that. My not-so-little girl was apparently still riding that wave.

“What was your favorite part of the Oratorio?” asked my wife.

“Well,” she replied sheepishly, “when Osmo pointed to us, and we standed up alone, and everyone clapped extra hard.”

When that happened, I grabbed the binoculars, because I wanted to see her face. She thought the extra applause was about a job well done and songs well sung. But that was only the source of the initial applause. The extra applause was an early valentine. That extra wave she felt was love.

Baseball Stuff
Sometimes you just find the right writer in the right place at the right time. Yesterday that writer was Jason Stark. If you haven't read his blog about the congressional hearings yesterday, you're missing out.

Back tomorow with more on Joe Nathan and the right and wrong kind of contract the Twins should offer him.

And He Shall Be Livan

OK, let's cover Livan Hernandez briefly. And really, I mean briefly, because it's late, I'm sick as a dog, and if I was even half of a writer I'd be telling about the Oratorio at Orchestra Hall that The Chatty Chatty Princess just sang in. Instead I'm writing about an overweight, overused veteran pitcher. And that's because I'm a bad father.

I could also be declared legally blind for not seeing this a mile away. Especially because on Friday night I was at a party with a bunch of other Twins geeks(again, bad father), and the topic of "What veteran free agent pitcher would you sign if you were the Twins" was raised. I said I'd rather they just went to war with the kids, another fellow thought they should try and get a veteran arm to soak up some innings, and I was OK with that if we could identify a guy with some upside.

But looking through our mental rolodexes we couldn't find a very good fit. Josh Fogg? Kyle Lohse? The guy we liked best was R. A. Dickey, the minor league knuckleballer that the Twins lost in the Rule 5 draft. Nobody (as far as I remember) came up with Livan. And that includes a half hour later when one of the guys started playing Elton John on the organ and broke into Levon. I swear to god I am not making this up.

Cause here's the thing - if someone would've mentioned Livan, I'm pretty sure he would have been the consensus choice. I expect this pick will be blasted in some areas, and that isn't totally unjustified. And I'll be reading them, because it will be interesting to try and determine if the reality they're advocating is really the result of a paradigm. Personally, I can't get too worked up about it one way or the other, and I'm not deadset opposed to it.

Is it a waste of money? Hell yeah, but right now the Twins have money to waste. Bill Smith has done some things well this year, but he's also flubbed a couple of doozies, and one of those is the Twins budget this year. He was way too conservative early, a trait he shared with the previous GM, and now they have money to burn. Not signing Hernandez isn't going to fix that. This is essentially a freebie. (And yet one more piece of evidence that the Twins should never be afraid to bid an extra couple of million dollars per year to re-sign their stars. )

Is it going to take away innings from younger pitchers? Probably, but it's not like there won't be plenty left. The starting rotation is still going to have 800 innings to spend on developing major league pitchers, and the bullpen will probably have a couple hundred more. I'm not going to weep for the 200 innings that will be soaked up by Hernandez, especially when I was willing to hand them off to R.A. Dickey.

The biggest problem with Hernandez is that he just might not be very good. This, in my opinion is the strongest argument. His ERA has been rising, his strikouts have been dipping, and his home run rates will make Twins fans remember Brad Radke and Carlos Silva - and not in a good way. The consensus opinion is that his arm has absolutely been fragged by overuse, and last year's 4.93 ERA in the National League is going to give attentive fans pause.

But on the other hand, he's just 32 years old. He has learned to survive more on guile than power, and his guile hasn't been seen in the American League ever. He also started very strong last year, with 5-2 record and a 3.36 ERA in his first 11 starts before there started being some reports of a sore neck, etc.

Finally, it's worth noting that Livan sure thought he's be doing better than this when he turned down the Diamondbacks offer of arbitration. He likely could have made more money by just accepting that than he did by signing with the Twins. And Livan, Livan likes his money. He makes a lot they say.

But maybe most importantly, it's not like he's bumping the best of the Twins pitching performers down to the minors. Given all the youth on this team, some guys were going to really struggle, and they were going to need to stay on the roster because there wasn't going to be many options. It's unlikely that those players, whoever they ended up being, would have posted the upper 4's ERA that the Twins are hoping they can coax out of Hernandez.

They also get a guy who knows how to pitch, and someone who can nominally be the #1 guy/horse in the rotation until a youngster steps up and grabs it (and someone will). Pundits will suggest that this signing will hurt some of the development of young pitchers, but I expect that the Twins signed Hernandez for exactly the opposite reason. We'll hear that they signed him to help the young pitchers by example and take the weight of the world off their shoulders.

Maybe that will end up as prophecy or maybe it will end up as irony. I don't know. But the Twins have developed about as many minor leaguers into regular players as any franchise in the majors. They probably deserve the benefit of the doubt on the strategy they choose.

Nathan More than his Saves

Let’s start with this concession: the Save is a bullcrap statistic.

I don’t really know how you can argue any differently. It is defined in three different ways, and really none of them have any objective basis. I’ll take it further. I believe it has slightly corrupted the game of baseball, resulting in a lower level of play and a truly inefficient use of resources.

But that does not mean that Joe Nathan hasn’t been one hell of a pitcher.

Because there is a non-bullcrap statistic that shows exactly how valuable he has been. It’s called Win Probability Added or WPA, and it should be a beautiful statistic, because it should bring the sabremetrics and traditionalists together. It’s truly a shame that it’s so rarely referenced in the media, but I suspect that’s partly because it isn’t particularly easy to explain, so let’s try and do so in less than 100 words.

“WPA measure how much a player does to help his team win games. It starts with a long list of probabilities pulled from 30 years of major league baseball. Every situation is listed along with the percentage of times that teams in that situation won. So, if a team goes into the bottom of the eighth down a run they have a 23% chance to win.

And from that starting point, each batter and pitcher can earn points by how much they help their team. So, if the leadoff batter gets on first base, his team now have a 31% to win, and the batter gets the 8 points difference, while the pitcher is penalized –8 points. If the next batter hits into a double play, then his team’s chances drop to 13%, and the second batter is penalized –18 points while the pitcher is rewarded another 18 points.”

Yikes, 149 words. Nobody is going to use that in a 750 word story. We’ll work on that. Feel free to take your stab at it in the comments section.

Anyway, over the last four years, the leader in these points on the Twins hasn’t been Johan Santana. And it hasn’t been Joe Mauer, and it hasn’t been Justin Morneau. In fact, it wasn’t Morneau even in the year where he was voted MVP. The leader over those four years, and individually in three of those four years, was Joe Nathan.

How can a guy who has only pitched about 70 innings per year be the most valuable guy on the team? Well, as you get nearer the end of a close game, every at-bat and every pitch count a lot more in WPA, because they count a lot more in a game. For instance, every time Nathan takes the mound at the bottom of the ninth with a one run lead and nails down the save, he gets 13 points.

Does that seem like a lot? Well, let’s not forget that these points haven’t just been assigned by some cognitive statistical society. They reflect the actual number of percentage points that player have helped their team over 30 years of major league history. He gets those 13 points because 13% of the time, a pitcher has failed to do his job in that situation.

Also, it works the other way, too. If Nathan gives up a two runs in that half inning, he loses 87 points. That’s the way it works for a closer. It doesn’t take too many blown saves over a season to wipe out all the “saves” that a closer might accumulate.

So Nathan’s ranking at the top of that list isn’t some statistical shell game. He really has been that valuable for the Twins. His impact on games is more than the number of saves he has, or his All-Star appearances, or his Cy Young votes (he’s finished in the top 5 twice). It’s even more than the intangible comfort that he gives the coaches and teammates. His impact can be measure objectively, and it’s been huge.

The ‘Save’ has had several negative impacts on baseball, but trashing it won’t get rid of it. The task at hand is far harder. It needs to be ignored, and replaced with a more concrete evaluation tool. We shouldn’t let a justifiable disdain of it cloud our recognition of Nathan’s performance.

Windows

One of the things that I’ve become increasingly aware of in the past year is the influence of paradigms. A paradigm is window that we all have, but may not recognize. It is a deep-seeded belief that affects how we view the world.

Here’s an example that I have heard. Imagine you are sitting on a subway car when a father and his four children get on. It takes the kids about 45 seconds before they start misbehaving, getting on each other nerves, wrestling, and disturbing other passengers. Meanwhile, the father sits passively, almost detached.

Ok, so put yourself in that subway car. You probably feel a little annoyed. As it continues, you wonder if you should say something. Maybe you scold the children, or shoot a dirty glance at the father?

Well, it turns out that someone does ask the father if he could do something. The father reacts almost as if he’s awakening out of a dream. He apologizes, saying they all just came from the hospital. His wife had just lost a fight with cancer. He had been lost in thought. He speculates aloud that the kids probably don’t know exactly what to do with the feelings they’re experiencing.

OK, now put yourself in that subway car again. Still feel annoyed? Still planning on scolding the kids? What look are you giving the dad now?

Here’s the thing: the actual reality inside that subway car hasn’t changed. You still have a detached father, four misbehaving kids, and a crowded subway car. Only the background story changed. Before you were stuck in a moral drama about the decline of parenting in society. Now, you’re in the middle of a tragedy. And so your reality, both how you view this and how you react to that car, is totally different.

You see this all the time in journalism, whether it be blogging or the corporate media. For example, reactions to the drafting of Ben Revere by the Twins in the first round of the 2007 draft were all over the chart. Pretty much the sum total of what we knew about the guy was that he was fast and some draft experts had projected him to go in the 3rd or 4th round. And so we fit that into our paradigm and got differing vastly differing opinions.

Those that thought that the Twins weren’t spending enough money criticized the pick, convinced that Revere was chosen that high because the Twins wouldn’t need to pay him much. And, indeed, Revere signed for less guaranteed money than any first rounder since 1997. Plus, the Twins made moves later, such as releasing Jeff Cirillo and trading Ramon Ortiz and Luis Castillo, that suggest that finances really were a concern for the draft last year.

However, those that find the Twins were adept at finding diamonds in the rough praised the Twins for recognizing Revere’s skill and grabbing him early rather than risk him being gone by the 92nd pick. And in Revere’s first season, he had a monster introduction to the rookie leagues including hitting .325 with 10 triples (in just 191 at-bats). In fact Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the Twins #1 prospect, and the only five star prospect in the Twins system.

But on the other hand, there were also people who were frustrated with the Twins lack of power, and they criticized the pick because it smelled like another overhyped piranha. And, sure enough, Revere hit exactly zero home runs those 191 at-bats, and Baseball America warned that his ceiling will be limited unless he develops some power.

So which one do you pick? Well, all three sound pretty valid, but again, the reality of Ben Revere hasn’t really changed. Whichever one you pick doesn’t tell you that much about Revere, or even about the Twins. Mostly it tells us about you, and particularly what you believe about the Twins.

Hmm. It appears these windows work both ways.

Could We Have Kept Santana?

Could we have kept him?

I know the general consensus is that the Twins couldn’t have kept Johan Santana, but what is that consensus based on? Raw numbers? Um, compared to what? Total revenues that the team doesn’t publish? Anticipated payroll? If so, I haven’t seen it. History? Only nominally, since before this offseason, the Twins hadn’t lost a truly big name to free agency since Jack Morris.

No, the general consensus is based mostly on spin. Spin that Pohlad is cheap. Spin that the Twins are ultra-conservative when it comes to long-term deals. Spin that this is Minnesota, and we just don’t hang onto the superstars for very long. And in this case, the spin was right.

But could we have kept him?

At first glance, the contract Santana signed with the Mets isn’t too terribly different from the one the Twins offered. It was reported that the Twins offered a five-year, $100 million contract on top of the $13 million contract they already had with Santana for 2008. Let’s break that down and see what it looks like:


Year Twins Mets Difference
2008 $13M $19M $6M
2009 $18M $20M $2M
2010 $19M $21M $2M
2011 $20M $22.5M $2.5M
2012 $21M $24 $3M
2013 $22M $25.5M $3.5M
2014 $0 $5.5M* $5.5M*


*The Mets have a $5.5M buy-out option of a $25M team option for 2014. It will automatically vest based on innings or awards Santana wins.

Let’s throw out all kinds of caveats. First, the breakdown of the Twins offer is just a best guess – it was likely broken down differently - but the totals mesh. Second, my details on Santana’s contract comes from Cot’s Basball Contracts site, which I find to be an invaluable resource, but not necessarily an infallible resource. And finally, the innings or awards that are necessary to automatically vest the 2014 year of the contract haven’t been reported (as far as I know). If they’re ridiculously easy, that last year should read $25.5M instead of just the buyout clause. But usually, one just uses the buy-out option money, since that’s the only money that is truly guaranteed.

You probably saw a bunch of numbers and skipped over it, right? If so, just take a second and look at that last column. If those numbers in the Difference column are added up, the total is $24.5M. That’s a prohibitively large number, and the kind that drives premier free agents into the arms of the Mets, Yankees, etc.

But should it? I gotta tell you, individually they make a Twins Geek squirm. For instance, the biggest number in that difference column is the $6M total for next year, but that was absolutely in reach. Not to beat a dead horse, but the Twins are still under payroll. They could’ve paid that and still have been under their anticipated payroll budget for next year. (And that even includes the signing bonuses that the Twins gave Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau as part of their long-term deals).

Then we get to the five middle years of the deal. One can probably argue that the Twins can find better ways to spend $20M or $25M than to put it towards one pitcher. But I think you can also argue that if the difference between having the best pitcher on the planet and not having him is $2M to $3.5M, then maybe they’re best off stretching just a bit. Especially when that marginal money has historically been used to sign a veteran player for a secondary role, like Jeff Cirillo or Craig Monroe or Ramon Ortiz. Would they really be missed?

And, finally, we get to the option year. Would the Twins have been so opposed to a team-owned option year? Hell no. Obviously, they would want to make sure that the incentives for automatically vesting would virtually ensure that Santana was still one of the top pitchers in the majors. But beyond that, there is no risk there, and the only real cost is the $5.5 million buyout.

And, unfortunately, it gets worse. Because it turns out that contract defers about $5M of each years’s salary for later payments, which means the real value of each year comes down a couple of million dollars.

The biggest remaining questions are about Santana himself. Did he want to stay? Did he want to shine in a bigger market? Would he have accepted a similar offer from the Twins? And if you think he would, then why didn’t he accept a slightly smaller offer? We can’t answer those questions, and I’m not sure that the Twins or Santana’s agent or even Santana could.

But it doesn’t look like the numbers should have been the unrelenting roadblock. It might be that a lower revenue team like the Twins just doesn’t have any business risking that much on a single player. So it’s not something I can condemn the Twins for.

But yes, it looks like we could have kept him.

---

Sorry, I didn’t post yesterday. I was out of town, at a cabin in the middle of Wisconsin, wrapping up a weekend with the guys. The cabin is luxurious, but essentially “off the grid”, with no cell phone or internet access.

The guys, on the other hand, are generally not luxurious, and rarely off the grid. They’re also all about my age, and some of them are very old friends, and some of them are newer friends. The weekend is traditionally spent recalling our shared memories, comparing notes and busting each others chops. (Oh, and taking money from Jimbo in the Sunday Super Bowl Pool. That’s definitely become a tradition.)

It comes with a high price since we each leave our families to participate, but it is undoubtedly worth it. The stories about each other and abuse thrown at each other reaffirm and reconnect bonds that time, distance and life weaken. And this year, an inordinate amount of time was spend reflecting on the last year, and candidly evaluating our own and each other’s victories and struggles. That's the kind of feedback that is invaluable, made more so because it is not always comfortable.

It is not unusual for friends that you have in college or early in you adult career to be friends for the rest of your life. But it's also not unusual for them to fade away. That is a real loss because time adds a dimension to a relationship that cannot be replaced, and that was reaffirmed this weekend. Thank you to everyone who joined me this weekend, and everyone from their families who made it possible. I'm already looking forward to next year.

On Ignorance and Bliss

Maybe we feel sorry for Bill Smith, or for ourselves. Maybe living in this god-forsaken tundra just naturally requires some sort of natural optimism, or instlls a need to justify our tortuous choices. But, whatever the reason, there sure has been an effort to justify the Johan Santana trade by comparing it to past deals for Twins stars.

In the last two days, I’ve heard about the criticism leveled at trades of Frank Viola, Chuck Knoblauch, AJ Pierzynski and Eric Milton. And I’ve heard how that was wrong, and how we all learned afterwards that the players the Twins received in return were not just fair, but ultimately favored the Twins. And I’ve heard that we should all just practice a little patience.

But I think there’s a difference in how those trades were viewed by casual fans versus how they were viewed by the wonks. And by baseball wonks, I don’t mean journalists, because some journalists are wonks and some of them aren’t. I mean the folks that study this game, and the business and the salaries and the minors and the draft. I’m talking about the geeks.

The casual fan’s reaction to those previous trades matched their reaction to the Santana trade, and it was probably best captured by Nick Coleman in Thursday’s paper.

“The Twins' best pitcher -- and one of the best in baseball -- was traded to the New York Mets for four stiffs no fifth-grader heard of before.”

(I know, I know. I shouldn’t do it. Literate bloggers should, by now, have had their fill of picking on Nick Coleman. It surpassed “easy” years ago, and cleared “cruel” soon after. But lord almighty he makes it hard to not pummel him ruthlessly. I mean, if he doesn’t want to be bullied, why is he playing with his retainer in public again? And sweet geezus Nick - you need to quit smelling your fingers. It’s like taunting tigers in the zoo. I’m begging you.)

I call Coleman’s method of judgement “The Baseball Card Method” of evaluating trades. Essentially, it advocates that teams should trade players the way kids trade baseball cards, based mostly on stats from previous years. It is based on a desire to ignore salaries, future growth, and projected stardom. It’s often practiced with a reference to “The Good ‘Ol Days”.

Maybe that’s appropriate, because it might have been legitimate for trades made thirty years ago. If so, it has long since ceased, collateral damage of a more equitable system for distributing revenue to players. Which, ironically, is something I think Nick Coleman might favor. Regardless, it allows its proponents to trash most trades a low revenue team makes.

But while those previous trades were trashed by casual fans, they weren’t trashed by the wonks. The wonks evaluate trades by different standards, using the context of payroll, or of future level development, or even with an eye on how the 20th and 21st guys on the roster might help the team next year.

I remember shortly after the Eric Milton trade, I made a small appearance on an FM station, talking about the Twins, and they asked me about the trade. I told them exactly why it was a steal for the Twins – that the Twins freed up an oppressive salary, reduced their injury risk for the next season, and got back a couple of players that might fill reserve roles. We conitnued chatting a bit more about it before the interviewer suddenly stopped and said, “Hold it. You mean you LIKE the trade?” It was like she awoke from a dream.

You see, it was a totally foreign concept, because the trade was being bashed nonstop in the traditional media and on sports talk stations. Fans were irate. Milton had been the golden child, the next big thing. He’d pitched a no-hitter for chrissakes. NOBODY liked that trade. What was Terry Ryan doing?

It was completely the opposite at TwinsGeek.com and on the baseball wonk discussion boards like DTFC. There, the reaction was bordering on jubilant. It was assumed that moving Milton’s $9 million salary was a lost cause, and that the Twins wouldn’t be able to get a warm bucket of spit in return. The Phillies were viewed as suckers – beautiful, gullible, glorious suckers – for giving us anything in return, let alone a couple of useful role players in Carlos Silva and Nick Punto.

This trade is different. I spent yesterday getting IMs and emails from wonks, and for the most part they were in the “talk me down from the ledge” vein. They have a totally different reaction to this than from the other examples. This isn’t a trade for four guys that the public doesn’t know but the wonks love. This is for four guys that the wonks KNOW, and that they know enough to not embrace them.

Which lead to a strange lament yesterday. I spent one email chain yesterday writing how miserable because I knew all these guys coming back from the Mets. For me, it’s one of the more disconcerting aspects of this deal. Usually there’s some guy included that the wonks don’t have on their lists, and often that guy has ended up being Francisco Liriano or Jason Bartlett. Seeing a relative nobody like “Alexi Casilla” coming back makes us feel like the Twins scouting department is doing their homework. Without a name like that….

Well, you feel like the Twins just plain got taken for a ride. And all the evidence that is seeping out about final offers, and Santana’s demands, and the apathy since the winter meetings seems to support that. We may want to believe that this is the same as the other trades, and that in three years we’ll be praising the Twins organization for their foresight. But the future isn’t bright just because Nick Coleman is crabby again. This time, we can't count on today's ignorance leading to tomorrow's bliss.

Nonsensical Trade Points to Santana's Influence

USAToday.com is reporting that the Twins have traded Johan Santana to the New York Mets for a package of prospects. Invariably, the details of this bleed out much more slowly, and the deal won’t be finalized until Santana and the Mets reach a contact agreement, but with the Mets payroll, there is no reason to believe that won’t happen.

The trade will be a nonsensical ending to what has been a nonsensical situation. Initial reports are that the deadline was self-imposed by Santana, which is particularly disappointing, because the Twins absolutely would have preferred to wait a few more days. The trade or non-trade of Eric Bedard was going to provide a shift that might have well have moved some teams in a different direction, so why trade Santana before we know how that affects the market? After waiting a couple of months, why not next week?

This is not the first time I’ve been confused during this mess, er, I mean, process. My paradigm of this situation must be completely skewed, because there are truly dozens of questions that I can’t answer. If we go over them, maybe we can find an explanation that makes sense. We can start with….

Why aren’t the Orioles trading Bedard to the Mets instead of the Mariners? And why weren’t the Mariners more interested in Santana?
Short of including Jose Reyes, the Mets have always been a TERRIBLE trading partner for the Twins. Their minor league system is a duplicate of the Twins, filled with mid-level pitching prospects who are almost ready for the majors, and hitting prospects who are several years away. The Mets can offer almost nothing that the Twins don’t already have.

The package that the Twins got from the Mets illustrates this. Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey are duplicates of half of a dozen pitchers in the Twins organization. Deolis Guerra might be special, but hasn’t made it anywhere near the upper levels of the minors. And it isn’t clear that Carlos Gomez, who headlines the package, is a significantly better prospect than Jason Pridie. He’s certainly not someone that Twins can count on before 2009.

The maddening par is that they would have been a GREAT trading partner for the Orioles. The Orioles are in full rebuilding mode. They might very well prefer some high-ceiling prospects that are a couple years away. God knows they need some starting pitching help, even if it’s just to plug the middle of their rotation. The Mets are a great fit for the Orioles. Why the hell aren’t they trading Bedard to them instead of to the Mariners?

For Twins fans, that would have be the best case scenario, because the Mariners have plenty of money to spend, and have exactly the kinds of prospects the Twins need. And they would desperately need a top flight pitcher to be any kind of threat to the Angels. They could practically be in the driver’s seat in the division (not to mention the playoffs) for the price of a AAA center fielder (Adam Jones) and a middle reliever last year (Brandon Morrow). How can they not make that deal?

Why weren’t the Cubs, Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies or Rangers in this thing?
These are teams who have a history of paying high salaries. And all of these teams could use even a decent starter, let alone an annual Cy Young contender. And all have some intriguing talent to offer back. So why didn’t we getting a sniff of rumors about them? Why haven’t we heard about Felix Pie headlining a trade from the Cubs, or Hank Blalock from the Rangers, or even some sort of salary swap with Pat Burrel from the Phillies?

The common response was that Santana would prefer to be with an “east coast” team, but was he going to turn down $140 million (before he needs to throw another pitch) because he wants to live a little closer to Florida? Really? Are Chicago and Texas so much further from his home? And why wouldn’t the Twins be trying to get the Dodgers and Rockies into a bidding war, since the Yankees and Red Sox seemed to be lost in a daze. Which brings us to maybe the best question….

What the hell are the Yankees thinking? (And for that matter, the Red Sox?)
I can kind of understand the Red Sox not getting carried away. After all, they’re coming off a world championship, so they put a couple of reasonable offers on the table. Plus, they figure they’re better situated than the Yankees to offer the offensive talent that the Twins need.

But I can’t understand the Yankees. They were clearly the second best team in their division last year. The other wild card teams, the Tigers and the Mariners, are trying like hell to improve their clubs. And they’re rotation is filled with injury histories, whether it be veterans like Mike Mussina and Andy Petitte, or rookies like Phil Hughes.

And the situation would have been damn near intolerable if the Red Sox got Santana, right? At the very least they would end up needing to face him in the playoffs. And let’s not forget facing him in the regular season as they try to stay ahead of the pumped up Tigers. Or the Mariners and their weak division. And they passed because they didn’t want add a pitching prospect (Ian Kennedy) whose ceiling tops out as a #2 starter to the deal? That’s like the Twins passing because they don’t want to add Kevin Slowey to a deal. It makes no sense.

SO WHAT WAS GOING ON??!!??
I know what I’ll hear from the fans of those respective teams – it’s all too much to give up for one year of Santana. Fiddlesticks. The Mets won’t get a year of Santana, they’ll be getting seven years of him, and they’re going include the prime years of the 28-year-old’s career. Eric Bedard would undoubtedly have been cheaper, but he also might be gone two years from now. Santana will be the defining star of that team into the middle of the next decade. And maybe of New York.

He’s too expensive? Wrong. Imagine his price tag if he had another top five Cy Young award finish this year. If you think an 8-year, $200 million contract is beyond imagination, you need to work on your imagination. And his salary for 2008 is just $13 million, or slightly more than the Mariners will be paying Carlos Silva.

Did those teams think they could just wait until next year? Maybe. But about eight teams were going to be waiting to throw money at Santana next year, and only one of them was going to get him. And now, of course, they won’t even get that chance. Instead they’ll all get to bat against him for the next seven years, of not during the regular season, then in October. How many will think they would rather have their couple of prospects than Santana in 2009?

Did teams think he was hurt? If he is, he certainly doesn’t seem to recognize it. SI.com is reporting that he turned down a $100 million extension from the Twins. That doesn’t exactly sound like a guy who is worried about his health.

Were teams just hoping that the Twins sign him? This isn’t a bad thought. Because the Red Sox and Yankees, the Mariners and Angels, and the Rockies and Dodgers, seem to be fine with the status quo. That’s also why the Twins threat to trade him to the Mets was so non-compelling. The only team that would really care about the Mets getting him is the Phils. In fact, if the Twins really wanted to Mets to offer up Fernando Martinez (and it wouldn’t have changed my disdain for this trade), they should have been floating rumors about a big deal with the Phillies.

It’s baffling. I had hoped that the “give us your best offer” was an attempt to get the Mariners to reconsider dealing with the Orioles and the insanity that is Peter Angelos. Or maybe to give the Orioles something to think about before they reject that trade. With Bedard off the market, the Mets would have practically no real options left, and the Angels might think about responding to the move by trading for Santana.

But that doesn’t answer most of the other questions, and sadly, one other thought does. I suspect that the Twins were more handcuffed by Santana than they were admitting, which is a scenario I feared a couple of months ago. Maybe Santana basically dictated that there were only three teams that he would accept a deal with. That those teams caught wind of that. And that it left the Twins with almost no leverage. And of course, it appears he ultimately forced a trade just before the Twins could really react to a positive shift in the market.

I’m looking forward to you theories. And even more to the answers we’ll get when this whole thing is over.

A Center Field Solution

I'll give this to Bill Smith - he isn't afraid to face the music.

That's a trait he shares with his predeccessor, Terry Ryan, who never shyed away from contact with fans, or critical radio hosts, or upset, anonymous callers. On Friday night I watched Smith walk away from his radio show and become engaged with several fans who asked about, well, everything. I didn't have a chance to chat with him at that time, since I had some friends waiting for me.

Twenty minutes later, I walked by the same spot, and Smith had moved less than ten feet. He was speaking with a fan and his son, and this time I forgot all about my friends. We began talking about payroll, and then I asked him about, well, everything. Ten minutes later he still hadn't moved those ten feet. And fifteen minutes later I remembered that I was supposed to be bringing my friends their dinner.

Obviously, my first question was about payroll, and he was surprised that things worked out like the ddid. He didn't expect players like Mike Lamb to come as cheaply as he did, and that Adam Everett fell into their lap. He also referenced trying to keep some money for Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva, which blows my mind. I should have followed up more than I did on that point, but I just had so many other damn questions.

Like center field. I asked him if he would feel comfortable about center field if he entered spring training with the current roster. He said he would, because that would mean that Johan Santana was his Opening Day starter. Umm, no it doesn't - there are still free agent center fielders out there like Kenny Lofton and Corey Patterson. He said they're looking at them, too.

I don't know if that slip up was just him reciting a pat answer ("We would be very happy to have the best pitcher in baseball pitching for us on Opening Day.") or whether he really is just planning on getting his center fielder in a trade. In a later question, he felt like he didn't NEED a center fielder in return for Santana.

And I tend to agree with him. The Twins do have a decent solution for center field on the roster, or rather they appear to have two half solutions. Their names are Jason Pridie and Craig Monroe.

The biggest question about the right-handed hitting Monroe is whether he can handle center field defensively. Smith said the Twins scouting reports say he's "adequate", but probably can't play their every day. The defensive metrics in Baseball Prospectus 2007 handbook imply the same thing. In 2006, playing left field, Monroe was a single run below average, and that's in massive Comerica Park. His profile suggests he can probably handle one-third of the games in a center field platoon.

And his bat can certainly play there. Over the last three years, Monroe has hit .281 and slugged .481 against left-handers. Over those same three years, Torii Hunter hit .287 and slugged .487 overall. Monroe can't replace Hunter's bat, but he can replace one-third of Hunter's bat.

The exact opposite questions exist about Monroe's proposed platoon-mate, Jason Pridie, but that's probably a good thing. Defensively, people rave about Pridie's tools, and since he's left-handed, he would end up patrolling CF about 2/3 of the time. Offensively, the 24-year-old never did much before last year, and as Jesse at TwinkieTown pointed out, a lot of that is related to his lack of plate discipline.

That didn't change much last year, but he still had tremendous success, and it was fueled by raking right-handed pitching. Against the port-siders, he hit .326, and slugged .572(!) over 359 at-bats in AA and AAA. (Read that last sentence again.)

In fact, it looks like the Devil Rays figured out that he needed to platoon once he was promoted to AAA. He had 194 at-bats against right-handers and 48 at-bats agains lefties, or about a 4:1 ratio. That's the kind of ratio you only see when a player is being held out of the lineup against southpaws.

Would Ron Gardenhire consider such an option? While the general consensus is that he avoids platoons, this might be to his liking. It would put a good glove in center field 2/3 of the time. It would put a rookie in the best position to succeed. It would allow him to get Monroe and Kubel in the starting lineup together 1/3 of the time, and it's not like the veteran Monroe has a long history with the organization. This might be a platoon that even Gardy could embrace.

During the talk with Smith, I asked him if he needed to walk to anyplace, and pointed out to him that I was mobile. No, he replied, he was here to talk to people. And approximately 45 minutes later, I found him again roaming the floor, this time with one of the Twins minor leaguers. I was again impressed with that quiet display of confidence.

It was comforting to see that considering the pressure he faces in possibly trading Johan Santana. I don't know if he was posturing or not, but I believe him when he says he's comfortable going into spring training with the center fielders he currently has. And after looking at the options, I don't blame him.