More Than Money

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that he’s become one of our most beloved Twins in less than a year. Truthfully, we loved him long before that. We loved him as he was making Rick Reed look forward to retirement. We love him when he was popping souvenir after souvenir above the baggy. We loved Jim even when we hated Jim.

And now that Jim Thome has crushed 22 homers, got on base at a .400 clip, and saved a season jeopardized by the absence of Justin Morneau? Yeah, we still love him. But we’re probably going to need to get over that.

The knee-jerk reaction will be that it’s about money, and while fans want to believe there is more to things than money – well, they're absolutely right. And that’s why the Twins and Thome are destined to separate.

One of the bigger myths in baseball is that it is easy to find a productive designated hitter. The stats don’t support that. This year, the combined OPS of all designated hitters in the American League is 754. That’s lower than left fielders (763) and a lot lower than right-fielders (792) or first basemen (also 797). Full time effective DHs seem like they would be easy to find, but if they are, where are they?

Meanwhile, Jim Thome’s OPS is 1042. Now that is unquestionably because he ISN'T a full time DH. He's being given favorable matchups, and he's being given enough rest to keep him healthy for a full season. And to Thome's credit, he seems to recognize this. According to Buster Olney this weekend (sorry, you need a subscription to read the whole thing):

"What Thome has learned is that it's better for him not to play every day at age 40. He signed with the Minnesota Twins to be a part-time player this year, and he tries not to do too much when it's his off day; the rest that he gives his body is part of the preparation for when he does play."

Of course, it isn't clear that Thome really had the option to play every day last year. The DH market tightened in a hurry, leaving guys like Thome and Jermaine Dye standing without a chair when the music stopped.

It's hard to believe that would be the case this next year. Clubs will still remain cautious given his injury history and age, but do we really think another contending club - the White Sox, Rays and Angels immediately spring to mind - won't offer Thome 500 at-bats as their designated hitter, and money to match it? And do we really think Thome would turn that down, even with his new "don't play every day" philosophy?

Those at-bats are not something the Twins can match, and it doesn't have much to do with money. And, frankly, given what we have seen this year, I would argue that they Twins shouldn't match it - that Thome really can't be expected to be productive through a whole year with those demands place on him and his body. Even with the injury to Morneau, Thome still has just 241 at-bats this year, and he'll finish with less than 300.

It's nice to think that Thome could come back next year, because this year has been such a great fit. But neither the rest of the league or Thome are going to be able to help themselves. The Twins and their fans will need to look for someone else to love in 2011.

Empty

One can make a pretty good argument that the winner of the AL Central is consistently the team with the most depth. When we prognosticate, we focus on starting pitching, the lineup and the bullpen, and that's as it should be - it's silly to award a division to the team with the best 26th guy. But year after year, it seems like the team that weathers the storms the best, whose bench and high minors guys fill the cracks that need filling, wins the AL Central.

I think that same thought every year, and it applies this year too. The Tigers fell off the map when their young guys stopped hitting. The White Sox have flailed for the last month, desperate for bullpen help and that extra bat that can play DH. Meanwhile the Twins have that extra bat (Jim Thome), the bullpen guy that saved the rotation (Brian Duensing) and a rookie that is becoming one of the more valuable Twins (Danny Valencia). And they've been fairly aggressive in adding depth this season with the acquisitions of relievers Matt Capps, Randy Flores and Brian Fuentes.

But the need for depth has been building lately, and in last night's 10-9 loss, the areas hit hardest were all on display.

Infield - About two months ago, I was gong to write a story on how exceptional the Twins infield defense has been. It would look silly now. The Twins lost last night largely on their inability to turn double plays - by my count they missed somewhere around 23 of them. JJ Hardy can't throw the ball to first base on the fly more than 50% of the time, and we'll let his bad wrist be his excuse. Hudson can't pivot, and we'll let his foot be his excuse. And Casilla is sometimes brilliant but mostly maddening and we'll let Nick Punto's hamstring be that excuse.

Meanwhile, Michael Cuddyer might as well add "catcher" to his resume, since he's being asked to field so many throws in the dirt. That said, it sure would be nice to have Justin Morneau's glove back at first base during this stretch, for two reasons. First, because he's pretty darn good at that sort of thing. And second, because he might be more willing to rip some of these guys a new piehole for consistently making him field that junk.

Power - Speaking of Morneau, as the Twins faces one of the premiere left-handed pitchers in the game last night, their top three left-handed sluggers (Morneau, Thome and Jason Kubel) were all hurt or mostly unavailable. The result? The Twins managed 15 hits - and they were all singles. This team is back to being The Piranhas, except that a good chunk of that feisty school of teeth are either hurt, gone or just plain slow.

Bullpen - But it's hard to rip the offense too much when they scored 9 runs in a game started by Justin Verlander. Last night's loss is mostly about the bullpen, and specifically about a strange reluctance the front office has shown all year.

It's fairly well documented exactly how much Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are being overused this year. I count Guerrier being used 18 times in the last 31 games and Crain being used 21 in the last 33 games, both of which tally to about 100 games per season pace. Sure enough, last night they were the guys on the hill blowing leads, but it's hard to blame them.

For that matter, it's hard to blame Ron Gardenhire too much, too. He's consistently lost options in the 'pen this year, whether it was moving Duensing to the rotation, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares (and Pat Neshek) getting hurt or Alex Burnett sucking. Last night you could add Fuentes and Capps to the N/A list with various ailments. So when Scott Baker went down with an injury after just a few innings, even Jeff Manship's reliable (and durable and increasingly critical) arm wasn't enough.

Gardenhire was missing several bullets out of his six-shooter last night, and one needs to ask why that is when it's September 2nd. It continues a trend we have seen all year. For some reason, the Twins don't trust the relievers at AAA-Rochester, and sure as hell don't want to rely on them, despite impressive numbers. Instead, the front office has done just about everything they could do, including trading away top prospect Wilson Ramos, to not rely on them.

That changes tonight, as the Twins try to address a brand new deficit. Remember a couple of days ago we were wondering what the Twins might do with an extra healthy and effective starting pitcher? No more. As of 8:00 this morning, we have no idea who from the Twins will start tonight's game, but the answer appears to be: nobody. Or at least not a starting pitcher. Those maligned guys in Rochester's bullpen that we have been hesitant to trust with a 4-run lead are coming up to piece together a start against the AL West leading Texas Rangers.

Late update: Oops. It looks like Seth broke the news late last night that the starting pitcher will be Matt Fox, who has been starting and relieving in Rochester this year.

Goofy? Yep. Misguided? Maybe. But desperate times call for desperate measures. And even a team that has been relying all year on it's depth can eventually run empty.

The Real Danny Valencia

So for two years, I’ve questioned Seth Stohs about his Valenciatic Crush. For two years I argued that he was overhyped. And then on Tuesday night I found myself tweeting this during a crucial at-bat:

Is it wrong to be thrilled Valencia is up in this position? If it is, I don't wanna be right.

Again, that was TUESDAY night, not last night. And Valencia rewarded my faith with a clutch hit, just like he did last night when he hit a walk-off single to lead the Twins to a 2-1 win over the Tigers.

So, was I wrong? Have I seen the light?

Well, pretty clearly, I was, because I didn’t expect this much success this soon. (Here are his minor league stats.) Last year in Rochester, Valencia has 37 strikeouts compared to 8 walks, and so I wouldn’t have anticipated much early success from someone who was having trouble reading pitches. I also wouldn’t have expected a 819 OPS in the majors from a guy who posted just a 720 OPS this year in AAA.

What worried me the most about Valencia was his age. He turns 26 years old this month, which is old for a prospect. (For instance, he's older than Delmon Young and about the same age as Alexi Casilla.) But we’ve explored that question on my blog before, and third baseman often end up being a little older, for whatever reason. Corey Koskie, for instance, also debuted as a 25-year-old, and that was a September cup of coffee.

But I was wrong about more than just his age. Valencia’s glovework isn’t at Koskie’s level, but it’s solid, and Ultimate Zone Rating is pegging him as having saved 5 runs over the average major league third baseman this year, and that’s in less than half a season.

He’s also already made adjustments at the plate. When he first came up, he was a dead pull hitter. He still is, but now he’s hitting it with authority, and at least using the center of the field effectively. That’s a real positive adjustment.

Finally, he just seems really happy to be here, soaking it in, having the right attitude. I’ve seen him signing autographs before the game, he is smiling in the dugout, he just doesn’t look like he’s taking this for granted. It’s good to see.

So who is Valencia? I’m still not convinced he’ll ever be an All-Star, but he could be Koskie, only right-handed and without the golden glovework. That would be fine with me and likely with the Twins since he could be around through at least 2016. I’m guessing that would be fine with Valencia too, because Koskie made about $26M over the course of his career.