Nathan's Red Indicator Light

You may not be a machine Joe, but that doesn't mean we can't treat you like one.

The result was bad - a loss to the White Sox that leaves the Twins currently 4.5 games back of the Tigers. But the implication might have been worse.

Joe Nathan hasn't been right, and it's been apparent for several weeks, starting with a blown save that led to a 53 pitch outing against the Royals on August 21st. Nathan has been a stable and nearly unstoppable force since his arrival in 2004 in the AJ Pierzynski trade. This year and last you can change that article to "the", as in "the" stable and nearly unstoppable force. Because there hasn't been much else. Losing him might be the final blow to a team that has been deflecting a lot of final blows this season.

You can probably go somewhere else on the Twins blogosphere for a breakdown of Nathan's mechanics, but when I want to figure out if there's something wrong with a pitcher, I treat them like a machine. And the red indicator light for a pitcher with a serious problem is a sharp decline in his strikeout rate. So let's use that nifty Excel Chart Wizard and map Nathan's K/9 rate for each month since he got here, and compare it to his average rate over that time:



Nathan's strikeout rate this year and last has generally been a little lower than his overall average. That's to be expected, by the way - it happens to pitchers in the major leagues as hitters slowly adjust. But in Nathan's case, his strikeout rate has been increasing towards the end of this year, and was as high in August as it has been for the last couple years. That's far from a blinking red indicator light.

Is he trying to strike out people too much? Is he nibbling? It can't hurt to take a look and see if his control is off a bit, can it? Let's take a look at his BB/9 (walks per nine innings) rate over the same period.

Remember, on this chart, a peak is bad, and valleys are good. And last month, Nathan was at a peak that he hadn't seen since September of 2007 , when he blew back-to-back saves. Before that he reached this level back in September of 2006, when he was actually very, very good, because he was striking out a ton of people to make up for the walks.

But if you've been watching Nathan, the revelation that he's struggling with his control isn't a revelation at all. He's been missing the target on the outside of the plate consistently, especially against left-handed hitters. That's not exactly good news, but it isn't as bad as it could be. The machine definitely needs a tune-up, but he doesn't need an overhaul.

Swapping The Same Guy

In case you missed it, the PTBNL in the Jon Rauch trade came through yesterday, and it was Kevin Mulvey. This will undoubtedly stoke the "Johan Santana was a disastrous trade" fire. Whatever. The Santana trade was a dissappointment from the minute it was announced.

By the way, I think that link is worth a click through. The entire situation was baffling then, and it seems clear that Santana was manipulating it far more then we understood. It was a crappy trade because it was a crappy situation. That was true then, and it's true now.

Of course, this trade shouldn't be evaluated as part of a trade two years ago that still has some stink on it. It should be evaluated for what it is. So here are the components:

Mulvey is a 24-year-old AAA pitcher who is basically in his second year in AAA. His stats are slightly above average almost across the board, except for hits given up, where he's closer to average. He projects to be a back-of-the-rotation guy or middle reliever.

When Rauch was a 24-year-old, he was also in AAA. And his stats were slightly above average almost across the board, except for home runs given up, where he was below average. He had a handful of starts but ended up being a middle reliever. For the last few years, he was a very durable and effective middle reliever for the Nationals, but for the last year he has been a little less effective (and healthy) with the Diamondbacks.

In case you didn't notice, they're the same guy.

Straight up, not taking into consideration existing needs, Mulvey is usually going to be the more valuable guy to an organization because he has six more years of team control at a far lower salary. I'll even go as far to say that Mulvey might be at or near Rauch's level as early as late next year.

But Rauch is ready now. He's under control for next year. And he doesn't have the risk that Mulvey has or require the patience. This is not a steal, but it's a solid move, and the downside is that you probably lose an effective middle reliever from 2011 through 2013. So be it.

Twins Win!
Great win. A decent start by Jeff Manship, a few bombs by Michael Cuddyer, a bullpen meltdown, and a clutch hit by Jose Morales. I'd like to give you a few thoughts, but the dog needs walking. Here's an idea - follow me on Twitter. It takes about a second to sign up, and you can check your cell phone during the game and get all kinds of insights from all kind of Twins geeks.

You mean you're not? C'mon, what could be better than getting texted my Twins thoughts on your cell phone? You don't need to answer that. Just nod politely.