MNF: The drunken 1AM edition

Are you ready for some footbaAAAAALLLLL?
The email came about fourteen hours ago:

Johno -- I have an extra really good ticket to tonight's game. Are you interested in going? Let me know ASAP.

So we know a few things from this email:
1) I'm going to that game, because I'm going to say 'yes' without even checking with The Voice of Reason™. And she's going to sign on, because she's the greatest wife in the history of wives.

I hope.

2) I'm likely going to drink to excess, because that's how events end with the group of friends that call me 'Johno'.

And the lucky recipient of all this, besides myself, is you, dear reader. Because I'm going to want to write-off this bar/game bill, and the only way to do so is to write it up on GameDay's blog. Or so I hope. Which brings us to...

The Greatest Vikings Pregame Meal in the Universe
I could show you the emails where we debated various alternatives, but I think it's safe to say that we partook in the greatest MNF Vikings Pregame Meal in the Universe tonight, and you might want to have in on the radar if you're going to the game this Sunday. You just need to do the following:

1) Go into Murray's
2) Go into the bar, not the restaurant. It's not crowded, a big plus on game day.
3) Have a few slices of garlic bread as an appetizer and, for the love of all that is holy...
4) order yourself and your companions steak sandwiches.

You might be thrown by the fact that they're not on the menu. Don't be. They're on the menu at lunch, and they can make them anytime. You'll be treated to steak tips, perfectly grilled at your desired doneness (I suggest medium rare) with cheese and bacon on wheat or white bread. I took three guys there tonight, ordered for them, and by the end of their sandwich they were each ready to service my ever need.

That's a good sandwich. Maybe too good.

Intros
It was my first Monday Night Football game, and I gotta say, I was impressed. The whole crowd feels a little different, like we were there for a playoff game. The Vikes did a nice job of stoking the flames with their introductions, and everyone was standing up and going crazy.

And they did a REALLY nice job of introducing Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson together at the end of the line. I mean, it's nice that they made the rookie feel like an important part of the team.

So What Went Wrong?
There will be plenty to analyze in this game, but I'll tell you an area that will likely not get enough criticism - the special teams. I guarantee you I'll hear some praise for them tomorrow, since Devon Hester didn't score a touchdown. And I'll wonder if the person who says it missed the first four minutes.

Because the Vikes special teams screwed up enough in the first four minutes to cost them a ballgame - and they were just warming up.
1) The opening kick was returned beyond the 40 yard line, which is beyond where the Bears would get the ball if the Vikes just kicked it out of bounds. And that wasn't unusual tonight.
2) Bobby Wade, who is a solid wide receiver, but a terrible punt returner, fair caught a ball on his own seven yard line.
3) And throughout the night, the special teams didn't understand exactly what a wedge is supposed to do. The wedge isn't about force- it's about timing. They need to time their impact with the opposing team at just about the time their runner is reaching them. The Vikes didn't adjust to this reality all night.

And that was just the tip of the iceberg:
- they had at least two, and maybe three bad snaps
- they missed an extra point
- failed to catch a ball that was downed inside the five yard line
- committed a penatly to lose exceptional field position and
- failed to catch a fair catch that was luckily returned, though it was called back.

Did the Special Teams Do Anything Right?
Yeah. When they sent two guys back just so the could lay out the flyer on the Bears. We were all wondering why they had two guys back on that punt, and then as soon as the kick lef the punter's foot, we were all anticipating that hit. We must've watched it be set up for 30 yards. Immediately around me, I bet I heard 15 guys shout as it was made, and we were all at least 80 yards away from it. Gawd, you have to love football fans for that kind of reaction.

Tell Me More About Football Fans
The 5' 4" woman in front of me, who was about 45 years old, a little overweight and had two-toned dyed hair, spent a timeout rocking to Pour Some Sugar On Me by Def Leppard. She knew the words and everything. Her husband was a balding overweight guy who generally ignored her except when he repeatedly poked her in an obscene manner with a little flagpole. I don't even know what to add to this.

Uh, Got Any More Behind the Scenes Observations?
Sure. On the Vikings first field goal, the 'flag guys' ran out onto the field. They're the guys that each carry a flag with a letter that says V-I-K-I-N-G-S and run around the field, waving it back and forth like they're leading the charge of the light brigade.

And 'G' ended up shatter'd and sunder'd before he even made his way onto the field. He stumbled over his own feet all of twenty feet into his sprint and - after getting a little support from 'S' - half galloped after the rest of the string until they reached the sideline. To the fans credit, they seemed to enjoy rooting for the VIKIN. Especially the guy in front of me with his stubbly little flagpole.

So Why Is Football So Popular?
At The Little Wagon, we debated this a bit, as we stood between the girl wearing Zubas and the guy wearing face paint. We couldn't figure it out. Then the guy next to us was warned by a random stranger that his brother was 'hammered and into this little Asian' in the corner, and had told the rest of the friends to 'go away'. And a theory developed.

Maybe it isn't the salary cap, or the television contract or the merchandise marketing. Maybe football just plain appeals to the lowest common denominator.

God knows that tonight I'm not in any position to argue against it.

Cliff Notes Version of the Weekend News

On Wednesday night I was faced with so much news and so little time that I spit out 50 word takes on everything Twins. And tonight is worse. Much, much worse. We're down to bullet points, I think.

Signing Adam Everett
I'd like to agree with Aaron, who does a great job of justifying this signing based on Everett's defensive value. Defensive metrics deserve their own post, as I don't trust them and I wouldn't mind delving into why. But I also overvalue the defensive value of certain positions, and shortstop is one of them. Plus, Aaron rightly points out that just about everyone agrees that Everett really is outstanding defensively, and the metrics support it too. For a GM, it's a logical and defensible move.

Now we'll get to see if the manager can meet that same standard, because the problem with signing Everett is that it dislodges the only position where Nick Punto isn't an offensive drag. You might think that Punto will then end up as a backup super-infielder, but Gardy's history suggests otherwise, and that Punto will end up at second base. Actually, Gardy's history suggests that one of them will end up hitting at the top of the lineup. Check that. At least one of them will end up hitting at the top of the lineup.

If so, the move turns from an interesting move to a kick in the gut. Which is precisely how I felt on Thursday when I heard the move had been made. Smith has give several small signs that he knows what he's doing in this GM role. This single move might tank all the progress he made up to this point in the offseason.

Signing Mike Lamb
If so, Smith started making progress again the very next day. Three months ago, I wrote:

Mike Lamb has had a decent year, and a decent career so far as a platooning first baseman and third baseman. I suspect his at-bats have been limited because he struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. He's been hanging around in Houston for the last few years, and he missed being a free agent by just twelve days this year. He's positioned to either be the bargain of the offseason, or the guy that gets a contract much larger than anyone anticipates.

I was legitimately surpirsed to see the Twins land Lamb, and especially surprised to see the terms of the contract as they have been released so far. The detail that worries me the most, and it's a pet peeve of mine, is that the third year has been listed as an 'option'. But nobody is saying whose option it is, and that is an absolutely critical detail in evaluating these contracts.

Lamb is an interesting fit for this team in at least three ways...
1) He hits right-handed pitching, which is a great match for Brendan Harris. You'll remember that Harris was acquired from Tampa Bay in the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade, and will probably play second or third base. Harris mashes lefties and struggles with righties. So Lamb can either platoon with Harris at third base (if Gardy, sigh, starts Punto at second) or swap places with Harris in the lineup if they're both playing depending on who's pitching.

2) He's limited defensively at third base, which means he's a nice fit with Everett over on the left side of the infield. To be honest, I wonder if the Twins would've signed Lamb if they hadn't already signed Everett.

3) He's also perfect hitting off the bench or as a backup DH with Craig Monroe, who mashes lefties but struggles against righties. So if the Twins do acquire a third baseman in a Johan Santana trade, Lamb coul still fit the roster. Especially because Monroe's contract isn't guaranteed.

So Where Are We Now?
Things get a little tricky when designing a lineup, because you suddenly realize just how left-handed this team is. And also, that the team speed that they valued so much last year has just about dissappeared.
1 - ??? - CF
2 - JMauer - C
3 - DYoung - LF
4 - JMorneau - 1B
5 - MCuddyer - RF
6 - JKubel - DH
7 - BHarris - 2B
8 - MLamb - 3B
9 - AEverett - SS

That's not half bad, and now the Twins can concetrate moving Santana for overall value, and not for need. With Dan Haren now off the market, and Hiroki Kuroda having signed with the Dodgers, Twins fans can expect some moves in that area soon.

Hopefully I'll have a little more time to post when we finally have some news there.

Fifty Word Challenge: Arbitration and Signings

Good golly, but a lot went on yesterday. So let’s try something a little different. Buncha topics, fifty words each. Go.

Craig Monroe
A non-guaranteed contract? Is that even legal? Is that the MLBPA on line two?

Well, more evidence of admirable creativity from Bill Smith. I just hope he doesn’t learn that giving Gardenhire a “veteran bench bat” is like giving “wine for a special occasion” to a wino.

Jason Tyner – Part I
OK, this is gonna go long, because dammit, it pisses me off.

Never has a player made so many smart baseball analysts act so dumb. Dogged by his reputation in Tampa Bay, way too many of us missed what Tyner was – a great fourth outfielder, who is probably good enough to hold down the strong side of the platoon in center field.

His career line with the Twins vs. RHP? 454 AB, .311 BA, .347 OBP, 13 SB, 3 CS. All for a league minimum price. If you don’t appreciate that, you need to pull your head out of your ass.

Jason Tyner – Part II
Why, if you’re the Twins, would you NOT offer Tyner arbitration? You don’t have a center fielder yet, right? He solves 2/3 of that problem for about $800,000. I main, even if it’s just as insurance? It’s not like this team doesn’t have $18 million to spend this offseason, right?

Aaron Rowand, Kosuke Fukudome and Miguel Tejada
Ok, I’m stumped. Just what the hell are the Twins going to spend that money on? If they trade Santana, they have $30 million to spend. Yesterday they lost three top targets and all of them were fairly reasonable deals. I wonder just how Twins management is reacting in private.

More Tejada
With Tejada in Houston, shortstop Adam Everett will be non-tendered. Everett is a 30-year-old defensive specialist who has hit .242 with a 640 OPS the last three years. Plus, I hear he can take charge of an infield. Ten bucks says Gardy has already left a message on Smith’s voicemail.

The Cost of Admission

It should have been a weekend of celebration - belated celebration, but celebration nonetheless. Instead, the weekend provided a soap opera, complete with anti-heroes, shadowy villains, surprise twists, and a big bowl of popcorn. And best of all, it’s the actors in this little drama who are paying the cost of admission. Because that’s what this little drama is about.

Last week the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) voted to admit web-based writers into their ranks. It’s a huge step for the notoriously staid group, as evidenced that it took them about eight years to take it. The first group of nominees was requested from five web sites which are credentialed for MLB post-season coverage. Sixteen writers were accepted, including Scott Miller from CBS Sportsline; Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, Amy Nelson, Buster Olney, and Jayson Stark from ESPN; Ken Rosenthal from FoxSports; John Donovan, Jon Heyman, and Tom Verducci from SI; and Tim Brown, Steve Henson, Jeff Passan, and Dan Wetzel from Yahoo.

Celebration time, right?

Not so fast. First, it’s not the huge step forward you might think, because only two of the members who were accepted weren’t previous members of the BBWAA from their time working in print media. But what is really raising eyebrows is that they also rejected two candidates – Rob Neyer and Keith Law.

Those two writers have a lot in common. For instance, they both were submitted by ESPN.com. Neyer has been one of the most popular baseball writers there for at least eight years, and is almost exclusively available only if you subscribe to their Insider service. Law is relatively new to ESPN.com, but was originally one of the writers at Baseball Prospectus, and in between those two gigs he served as a consultant with the Toronto Blue Jays.

They’re also considered the two most statistically-oriented baseball writers of that group. They’re also two members who have never worked for newspapers. And they’re the two writers who have been most critical of traditional baseball writing. And traditional baseball writers.

So what happened? Well, the simple answer is that BBWAA’s national board of directors, who reviews the nominations, provided only two options to the rank-and-file. A vote of ‘yay’ accepted the sixteen internet writers but left out Neyer and Law. A vote of ‘nay’ rejected the whole bunch. Basically, Neyer and Law didn’t make it out of committee.

And why not? According to the president of the BBWAA, Bob Dutton, questions were raised about Neyer and Law, specifically whether they attend enough baseball games. That’s not quite as petty as it sounds. The reason the BBWAA was originally formed was to act as a lobby for baseball writers when dealing with Major League Baseball. For instance, if a club isn’t giving proper access to ballplayers, or providing sub-standard conditions in the press box, they can negotiate with the ball club as a unit. And so the BBWAA considers it a requirement that the writers attend games.

How that question was raised, and how it was resolved, is a matter of some debate. Tracy Ringolsby, a Colorado Rockies sportswriter who sits on the BBWAA national board of directors, claims that the person from ESPN.com who submitted the names was asked, though not by Ringolsby. Whomever the BBWAA talked to replied that Neyer and Law don’t go to many games.

However, Law says he talked to the person from ESPN.com who submitted the names and that the person denies ever being contacted by the BBWAA. ESPN.com’s baseball editor, who would seem to be the natural person to ask about such a thing, also claims he was not contacted. Finally, Neyer and Law were certainly never contacted, despite the BBWAA having their contact information.

And that story also contradicts another post by Maury Brown, a BBWAA member who, as far as I can tell, isn’t on the national board. He claims that the BBWAA was perturbed to get nine nominees from ESPN, which is essentially a television network, so they went back to ESPN to see if they could pare down the list. It was ESPN who suggested that Neyer and Law be left off.

Of course, none of the scenarios completely answer the obvious questions. Like why were they the only two singled out? Who was consulted from ESPN? Why didn’t the national board allow an up-down vote on Neyer and Law, or on each of the candidates? How many games is enough? Are existing members, some of whom are editors or political cartoonists, and only rarely write about baseball, put up to similar scrutiny? And finally, why was this narrow interpretation of the role of the BBWAA applied in only this case? Especially when there were sixteen other applicants?

That last question is especially tricky, because the narrow role of the BBWAA has transformed significantly from its original purpose of lobbying MLB for the writers. The BBWAA is now responsible for the first interpretation of baseball history. They decide who is admitted to the Hall of Fame, a responsibility of which Neyer, at least, has been quite critical. And maybe more importantly, they’re recognized (and again criticized) for the end of the season awards that are usually cited when evaluating HOF credentials.

In other words, they interpret the game the day after it’s played. They interpret the previous year and determine award-winning performances. And they interpret players’ careers and pass judgment on decades worth of results. They are the first, second and third passes at baseball history. To an enormous extent, they define it.

Which explains the reaction on the Internet Friday and Saturday. Near as I can tell, it started late Thursday night with a post at BaseballThinkFactory.com where Neyer gives his initial reactions and wonders if his relationship to other writers cost him the nomination. The decision was also being examined early on Friday at BaseballAnalysts.com in a thread in which Rob also participates. It contains some solid back-and-forth with BBWAA members about the process and the reasons for rejection.

Then things started getting a little less civil. Keith Law posted his reaction on his web site. Amidst a fairly civil post Law mentions that he heard Tracy Ringolsby voted against accepting the sixteen internet writers, and speculated that the slight may have been tied to a dislike of the “Interwebs.”

That speculation introduced me to the tragic/comic stylings of Ringolsby, because he goes off like a roman candle. Ringolsby replies that he voted against the sixteen because he thought Law should be included. But his position on Law doesn’t stop him from launching into some personal attacks, or from ranting that Law is a “liar” a couple of times. While portraying himself as a kind colleague of Law’s, we get our first twist when we find out that this isn’t the first time he’s attacked Law publicly.

Eventually, it seems like he and Law reach a mutual understanding, but Ringolsby continues his anti-Law rant over at a fourth thread, again at Baseball Think Factory. This thread starts late on Friday night and by now people are pretty riled up. The second post is Ringolsby anonymously calling Law a “liar.” The third post is Neyer calling Ringolsby out. But the fourth post, by someone named Banta, is my favorite:

“This thread is off to a good start. Think I'm gonna make
some popping corn and settle in.

I don't have cable anymore, in case anyone's
wondering.”

Banta likely came away satisfied. The thread continues for nearly four hundred more comments. Ringolsby reveals his identity and he and Neyer go back and forth during the first 100 comments. We get another plot twist when Neyer accuses Ringolsby of writing “truly terrible, personal things about me in his column, without contacting me first to check the accuracy of those things.” Hmm. Turns out Neyer and Ringolsby have some history after all.

But wait, there’s yet another twist. In the next one hundred comments, we learn that Neyer has some history criticizing Ringolsby, too. Neyer received an advance copy of a book Ringolsby wrote and posted a critical review of it anonymously on Amazon.com. It’s something he regrets, and it’s what Ringolsby was criticizing with those “truly terrible, personal things.”

And that’s where the soap opera currently sits. The BBWAA has made it very clear that Neyer and Law are both welcome to apply again next year, so stay tuned. Because it looks like this performance will get at least one of the two things it’s really missing: a sequel.

The other - a happy ending - is still in doubt.



Looks like there's an update on the story above. Joe Posnanski interviews Bob Dutton at his blog for his first-hand account of what happened.

Also, Bat Girl is back again at the GameDay Writers' Blog, which I'm sure you'll want to check out.

Mariners Targets

Hey gang,

I'm heading to bed, so there won't be a usual column today, but amid rumors that the Mariners might be making a proposal for Johan today, I briefly researched the two names that have been mentioned the most, and I thought I might share it with you.

Adam Jones - Yesterday I talked about getting an all-star caliber player back in the trade. Jones looks like that kind of guy. He's a right-handed center fielder who doesn't have the greatest plate discipline. But he's just 22 years old, and he absolutely owned AA as a 21-year old, posting a .315 average and a .568 sluggin percentage. ThinkTorii Hunter, with a worse glove but a better bat.

Brandon Morrow - The good news is that he was their #1 pick in 2006 and spent pretty much the whole year in the majors after jumping straight from A ball. The bad news is that he spent it all at the back of the bullpen. That's probably because he had some real control issues, walking 50 guys in just 63 innings. Youch. It didn't hurt him too much - he posted a 4.12 ERA and struck out a guy per inning in the bigs, but of course that was in relief.

The 23-year-old right-hander is supposed to be starting games in Winter ball this year. If he joined the Twins, you can bet there is no way he starts the year in the majors, and I wouldn't project him much higher than another middle-of-the-rotation guy, kinda like Ian Kennedy.

They're a solid start to a package, though I'd rather replace Morrow with another high-ceiling bat, even if he's not necessarily ready for the bigs this year. As soon as we get whispers of an offer, I'll let you know what I can find out about them.

Perspective

I come to you today looking for perspective.

Because it's a apparent that I've lost it. You might have thought that was apparent yesterday when I spend most of the afternoon manically clicking between MNGameDay.com and MLBTradeRumors.com. Or when I constantly checked ESPN.com's Winter Meeting Blog on my iPhone while I drove home. Or when I ignored my children's pleas to help them with their homework so I could click refresh on RumorsStartedForTheHelluvaItByTheDeskClerkAtTheOprylandHotel.com. Nope.

No, I finally realized I had been sleepwalking through the last six days when I researched just how far it was from my house to Nashville. So I could drive there.

And plead with Bill Smith.

And then lock him in the trunk of my car.

But I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who is losing their perspective today. When it comes to starting pitching, there's more than ample evidence that the world has gone nuts. A 33-year-old pitcher from Japan has GMs throwing at least $30 million at him? Jake Peavy signs an extension paying with a $22 million option in the last year? Carlos Silva has ten suitors?

To be fair, my perspective may have returned because I realized I would probably be too late. All indications are that by the time you're reading this, the Twins will have made a deal so the Boston Red Sox get the best pitcher of this decade. And the Twins, by most accounts, will get:
- a left-handed #2 starter (Jon Lester)
- a somewhat expensive average center fielder (Coco Crisp)
- an infielder with patience a little power (Jed Lowrie)
- a sinkerballer who doesn't strike people out much (Justin Masterson)
- an outfielder with some promise who has yet to play a full year of professional ball (Ryan Kalish)

And now, at the risk of getting a little too wonky, let's put those players in perspective, too. We'll list them again, but this time, let's change some of the more projectable names to an existing major leaguer:
- a left-handed #2 starter (Ted Lilly)
- an infielder with patience and a little power (Dustin Pedroia)
- a sinkerballer who doesn't strike people out much (Carlos Silva)

Lets' assume two of them reach that potential. Given the existing market for pitching, would you trade Santana for any two of those guys? How about if the other teams picked up their salaries?

I wouldn't, and I don't think the Twins would either. And for all the hand-wringing about Jacoby Ellsbury, adding him doesn't change the equation much. A slap hitting speedster who can play center field but doesn't have much arm projects to be Scott Podsednick. That guy can be valuable, but like these others, he's probably not going to be an all-star.

And that's what I'm looking for when I trade the best pitcher on the planet when teams couldn't be looking for more pitching. I want at least one and probably two potential all-stars in return. Not necessarily a superstar, but someone that I can reasonably expect to be near the top of his position. I need a couple of guys that can help lead to my next pennant run, not just stay out of the way.

I don't see that, and I suspect if I drove down to Nashville and cornered Bill Smith, he would too.
And if not, there's always the trunk.

Hank's Bluff

God help me, but I love negotiation. Buyer or seller. Being in one or watching one. And above all talking about one. And the reason is simple.

I love the creativity. A really good negotiator is disciplined, confident and prepared, but above all they're creative. The whole goal is to get someone to buy into a reality that you want to exist, because in that particular reality you have leverage. And so the successful negotiator can think on their feet and create a myriad of scenarios to advance their reality. Like making sure a Yankees assistant overhears a phone conversation with the Red Sox. Or leaking that an "inside source" says that a team's offer isn't genuine. Or creating an artificial deadline.

Hank's Bluff
Last night, Hank Steinbrenner tried that last one. He made sure that tomorrow's NY dailies are reporting that a deal must be done by Monday or the Yankees will pull their offer of Phillip Hughes, Melky Cabrera and some unknown "other" guy off the table.

Steinbrenner, who was not planning to attend the meetings, said of his time frame: "The Twins are aware of it, that I'm not going to wait much longer. And the truth of the matter is, they don't want to be stuck with only one team to deal with. If they're stuck with just Boston, they're going to get a lot less. I'm not going to be played. This is not a game. This is serious business. I'm not going to be played, us against the Red Sox. That's not going to happen."

That's quite a threat there, Hank. So if the Twins don't accept the Yankees offer by tomorrow, Hank will punish the Twins by:
1) forcing the Twins to trade Johan Santana to the Red Sox, who will get Santana while
2) keeping their best prospects for future trades. Instead, the Yankees will
3) ask Oakland GM Billy Beane whether they can trade for a lesser pitcher, like Dan Haren.

So the Yankees would've have driven the best pitcher in baseball to their chief division rivals, at a reduced price, and would need to negotiate a do-or-die deal with one of the shrewdest GMs in baseball while no longer having a backup plan.

Yeah. Strong bluff there, Hank. Savvy.

The Leverage of Time
Especially because by simply setting a deadline, he's admitted to a key concession about leverage: you have it - I don't.

Usually, the person who tries to set a deadline is the seller. You see this all the time. I expect an offer from another couple by the end of the day. We may be out of this model. We're having a 3-day sale.

When these tactics are in play, you need to ask yourself exactly what the rush is. If they have the best deal, you'll certainly come back. So just what is the salesperson worried about?

Obviously, he's worried you're going to find a better deal.

The Fallback Option
Turns out, Hank probably is too, because ultimately the Yankees can't provide the best deal. They may have the most blue chip pitching prospects in the game, but the Yankees aren't offering all of them. And more importantly, the Twins don't need pitching prospects.

The Twins need offense, and that's where the Yankees are sorely lacking.

The Yankees best offer would likely be second baseman Robinson Cano, but they say he's untouchable. Also, he'll be eligible for arbitration this year anyway, so he's about to get expensive fast. That's not exactly what the Twins were looking for.

The name that's in every rumor is Melky Cabrera, who is a center fielder(+) and just 22 years old(+). But he's also never been a highly rated prospect(-) and while he's decent defensively(+), he's never put up above average offensive number in either the majors or the minors(--). His upside is that of a cheap(+) average center fielder, but he might also be a slightly gifted fourth outfielder whose inadequacies are hidden in that Yankee lineup.

And there's been a lot of discussion about a third prospect. The top two hitting prospects in the Yankees system are Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Tabata is impressive because he's just 19 years old, but he also hasn't dominated any of the levels he's played at. Worse, he hasn't faced pitching higher than High-A ball. Neither has Jackson.

But here's where it gets good - the Yankees reportedly won't offer these two. Both guys, neither of whom is particularly attractive to the Twins, are strictly off limits. And even better, they are the only two offensive prospects worth a damn in their organization right now. The next guy on Baseball Prospectus list of top Yankees prospects is a catcher who just finished up rookie ball.

The bottom line is that the Yankees, even if they really, really wanted to, probably can't beat the Red Sox existing offer. They're stuck being a fallback option, and in a negotiation, you NEVER want to be the fallback option. It's a powerless position. The buyer just keeps negotiating with their first choice until your offer isn't the attractive one.

The Twins Dilemma
Which isn't to say that everything's perfect for the Twins either. In a perfect world, they'd have a suitor that is both desperate for Santana and had the players they need. The Yankees are desperate, but don't have the players. The Red Sox have the players, but aren't nearly as desperate.

So there are some real risks here. The primary one is that the Red Sox are simply trying to see if they can drive the Yankee's price up, but when push comes to shove, their offer isn't genuine. That would be disastrous for the Twins.

Another is that both suitors would be nearly as happy if Santana wasn't traded at all. The best leverage that Smith has is that the stakes couldn't be higher for the Red Sox and Yankees. Either their team gets the most dominant pitcher of the decade, or their arch-rivals do. Hell, both would probably be relieved if a third team did enter the bidding, especially if that third team was in the National League.

Which is why Smith's vow to "not compromise" rings so hollow. Odds are that both eastern franchises would like nothing more than for this whole Santana thing to go away so they didn't need to worry about their rival getting him. It'll be interesting to see if Smith's creativity stretches as far as bringing a third team into the Yankees deal that might be able to provide some offense.

But regardless, it looks like there's almost no compelling reason for this standoff to be settled soon, let alone today. Which is just fine for this negotiation-loving fool.

Vin de Idaho

Kermit: I took the liberty of ordering us some wine. Oh waiter!
Steve Martin: Yes, may I help you?

Kermit: The wine please?
Piggy: Hmmm - you mad impetuous thing, it's Champagne!
Steve Martin: (taking the bottle from a table-side ice bucket) Not exactly - Sparkeling muscatel - one of the finest wines of Idaho!
Kermit: Well, you may serve us now please.
Steve Martin: Oh! May I?
(Steve Martin examines the bottle. You can see the bottle says Vin de Idaho on it, with a block image in the shape of Idaho on the label.)
Piggy: look how he does that!
Kermit: Yup. Very suave.
(Steve Martin reaches to his apron and takes a bottle opener. Then he pops off the bottle cap and holds it over to Kermit.)
Steve Martin: Don't you want to smell the bottlecap?
Kermit: (hesitantly sniffing) Smells good.
Steve Martin: Would you like to taste it first?
Piggy: (to Kermit, trying to help out as Kermit hesitates) I think he's supposed to.
Kermit: Would you taste it for us please?
(Steve Martin reluctantly gives it a taste, and then wildly spits it out to the side in disgust, making nasty faces. Composing himself, he turns back to the pair.)
Steve Martin: Excellent choice.
Kermit: Should be for 95 cents.

I gotta admit, as I reviewed the latest rumors flowing out of New York dailies, I couldn't help but mimic Steve Martin. The Yanks have decided after a series of conference calls to include Philip Hughes?

Oh! May I?

Uh, welcome to the party boys. But the most amusing part of offering the Twins Vin de Idaho is that The Big Apple can't believe that this $0.95 bottle of Hughes, Melky Cabrera and some random minor league pitcher isn't to our liking.

Here's the thing: that still isn't particularly close to Boston's offer of Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and some other low minors pitcher. To be brutally frank, including Ian Kennedy STILL might not get it done.

I know it's against your inbred instincts, but you might want to gaze past the Hudson and ask who you're dealing with. Hint: it ain't the Pirates. The Twins don't need pitching. Check out Baseball Prospectus Top 11 Twins Prospects (I'll assume Hank can spring for the subscription) and you'lll see a team silly with pitchers. And they aren't counting Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins or Francisco fricking Liriano.

Hughes makes the rotation. But he's gonna need to bump someone out. And Kennedy gets to compete with that guy along with Jeff Manship and Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak, so don't tell me how invaluable Ian is.

Excellent choice.

Listen, we enjoy you Yankees guys, cause your ignorance to the power of the dollar is kinda endearing in a childish way and all, but you gotta understand that you're not dealing with the Royals here. The Twins have made the playoffs four of the last six years and frankly we're looking to knock that smug little oblivious grin offa your mug. And if that means riding the best pitcher of the decade into next year's playoffs (and letting him choose his own team thereafter), so be it.

So don't expect us to go all ga-ga after some overhyped right arm that you guys have cooled on. Show us some bats, boys. Because if (besides Hughes) all you're offering is some middle-level CF (Melky) and some other pitcher that isn't going to rank in the Twins Top 10, well, you might want to save yourself the dime.

Hell, even if includes some guy at High A ball (Austin Jackson), you may want to reevaluate exactly what you think you're so excited about. Because so far you're nowhere near Boston.

And frankly, we're not terribly impressed with your mad, impetuous offer.

Checking out the Sense of It

Hey, if it doesn't need to make sense for them to publish it, then it sure as heck doesn't need to make sense for us to talk about it.

Some local and national sources reported yesterday that the Twins were talking to the Red Sox about a package of players and prospects for Johan Santana. The lists were remarkably consistent, with both of them reporting that Coco Crisp, Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie were included. They differed in the fourth player, though it hardly matters since they seem to basically be the same guy.

From a Twins fan's perspective, they were also consistent in that neither was nearly a good enough offer. Both substituted quantity for quality. Both plugged holes instead of provided championship caliber players, and they didn't even do that great of a job at plugging holes.

Or at least that was my impression at first glance. But it's fun to get acquainted with these guys, and it might be downright valuable in the near future. So let's get started:

Coco Crisp – Two years ago he was a cheap, 26-year-old center fielder with over 1500 major league at-bats with an above average bat. Now he’s a somewhat fragile 28-year-old center fielder with a below average bat and a two-year, $10.5 million contract.

So what will he be over the next two years? Well, he’s always had speed, providing around 20 stolen bases. He has some power, and can probably be penciled in for at least 10 home runs. His batting eye is pretty good, and the key is for him to hit around .300 like he did in 2004-2005 instead of the .260 he hit in 2006-2007.

To me that adds up to be a hole-filler, not a difference-maker. That’s not terribly unappealing when your other options are Denard Span or Jason Pridie. But nobody should be excited about getting Crisp.

Jon Lester – Well, we know he’s a cancer survivor. That’s important, because he’s quite a bit more valuable to the Twins than if he wasn’t. But other than being a young pitcher (he’s 23), I don’t know that much more about him, other than he’s not Clay Buchholz.

Turns out he’s left-handed, which is awfully nice, and he’s struck out 110 batter in his 144.1 innings in the majors so far, but that’s only been good for a 4.68 ERA. He put up some absolutely obscene numbers in AA-Portland a couple of years ago and has spent a little time in two season in the majors despite his bout with non-Hodgkins lymphoma.

He looks like a good young pitcher, possibly as high as a #2 guy. He’s not dissimilar to the cadre of young pitchers the Twins already have.

Jed Lowrie – The hidden player that the Twins are likely quietly lusting for. He’s 23 years old, but he’s also a Stanford alum who exploded through AA-Portland and AAA-Pawtucket last year. He moved from second to shortstop last year, though I haven’t seen any reviews of his defense.

But we know that he can hit. At both levels he hit about .300 and slugged about .500 (though it looks to be mostly doubles). His plate discipline slipped a bit at AAA, but it was still good for a .356 OBP. He only had 160 at-bats at AAA, so he would likely start the year in Rochester and be promoted in mid-June, like the Twins love to do.

Michael Bowden and Justin Masterson – We’ll put these guys together since they’re both pitchers who show promise but haven’t advanced beyond AA. They’re both right-handed, both have high strikeout rates (around 1 per IP) and were both born about the time I was losing my virginity. Hmmm. You know, that's not as depressing a thought as I thought it would be.

So the package includes a not inexpensive plug-in center fielder, a young #2 starter, a middle infielder who could be somewhere between above average and very special in a year, and starting pitcher who will find himself towards the middle of the Twins minor league depth chart.

That's better than I thought, mostly because of Lowrie. But it still means 2008 looks pretty ugly. The offense isn't much different, the pitching is likely worse, and the holes left to fill (particularly third base) can't be easily fixed.

We're beyond the point where where the Twins just need to get talent back. That talent needs to fit together like a big jigsaw puzzle. These rumored deals with the Red Sox doesn't get them there.

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BTW, make sure you check out GameDay's Writers' Blog today. We have a special guest. And I don't know if you know it or not, but she's kind of a big deal.

Also, if you think you're getting all the info on the Delmon Young trade or the latest rumors/info about moving Johan, and you're not checking out MNGameDay.com, I think you're a sad little person. Seriously, I posted the above story last night at 9:00 PM, and I now count twelve posts since then. And it's the middle of the night.

I mean, honestly, you have some certifiable Twins writers out there, some of whom are super-talented like Nick Nelson, and all they ask for is a click or two. What else are you doing exactly?

The Magic 8-Ball Answers: The Tampa Bay Trade

OK, it's happened. And even if it wouldn't have, we could still talk about it. After all, this is the internet! If we're going to be lambasted by corporate media, we might as well have some fun with this stuff, right? And if we're going to be consulting our dubious sources we had better include Mattel's omniscient fortune teller. Enlighten us, oh dark one!

Q: Should I be excited about this trade?

A: Without a doubt.

And that's true whether you're a Twins fan or a Rays fan.

If you're a Twins fan, you came out with the best player in the trade, which isn't likely to happen again this offseason. Delmon Young is the kind of talent that can almost never be traded for - young, cheap and limitless. For instance, Young is more desirable than any player who has been mentioned in a possible deal for Johan Santana. You could make an argument that he is more desirable than any of the packages being offered. He's that good. If you can't get excited about getting Young, you probably also sleep in on Christmas morning.

Which doesn't mean this was a steal for the Twins. In fact, they probably come out a little behind on the deal in talent. On most GM's desirability scale, the players (including contracts, etc.,) probably rank like this:

1. Delmon Young

2. Matt Garza

3. Jason Bartlett

4. Eduardo Morlan

5. Branden Harris

6. Jason Pridie

I suspect I'll catch some grief for Harris' rank, but you need to recognize that prior to his performance this test he was viewed as Nick Punto without the glove. Over the last year, he looked considerably better that that, but so did Punto at this time last year.

What's more, the pieces the Rays receive fit their puzzle better than that Twins. This move give them the top-of-the-rotation starter they need, upgrades their shortstop both offensively and defensively, leverages their surplus of outfielders, and makes room for stud prospect Evan Longoria if Akinori Iwamura replaces Harris at second base. That franchise can sit on their hands for the next four months.

Q: Does this trade mean a trade for Johan Santana is more likely?

A: Cannot predict now.

Yesterday you heard both sides of the argument. One side would say if the Twins trade Garza, they couldn't afford to also trade Santana. Another side would say that the Twins traded Garza because interested teams were mostly offering pitchers.

But the bottom line is that this trade doesn't tie their hands either way. They currently still have a surplus of young pitching. Whether or not they trade Santana depends on what kind of offers they get for Santana, and nothing else.

However, they're sure going to be making some additional moves, because the pieces they received don't fit together too nicely. Delmon Young, despite playing 29 games in center field, is nothing more than insurance for the spot. He doesn't have the speed for the position. Branden Harris, despite playing 89 games at shortstop is thought of as a below average fielder at second base, let alone shortstop.

With this trade, the Twins essentially filled their DH position and opened up on in the infield. They still have plenty of work to do.

Q: Did the Twins blink at the last minute in this trade?
A: Signs point to yes.

Mid-afternoon yesterday this trade included Juan Rincon instead of Eduardo Morlan. But last night reports came out saying that the Rays had held up the deal due to concerns about Rincon's elbow and the deal was finalized shortly thereafter with Morlan in his place. Just yesterday Baseball Prospectus ranked Morlan as the fourth best prospect in the Twins system, and he'll likely play a role in the Rays bullpen in 2008. He could become dominant.

There may be some gnashing of teeth about this late change, and I'll agree that this is a slightly worse trade for the Twins. But it isn't a difference maker.

For starter, Rincon is better than you think. He finished fairly strong last year. Yes, his strikeout rate isn't what it used to be, but that's the case will all pitchers who have been in the league a few years. It's a reliable indicator for young pitchers coming into the majors. It isn't as effective judging veteran pitchers.

Also, even without Morlan, there is plenty of young talent to plug into the bullpen. The young starters that the Twins will have in AAA this year will still provide plenty of fuel for this year's bullpen, even without Morlan. And Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire have consistently shown that building a strong bullpen is something they can consistently do.

Finally, the $4 million that Rincon will cost next year isn't going to hurt the Twins offseason plans. The Twins still have $20 million to spend this offseason, and another $13.5 million if they move Santana. For a team that is allergic to long-term deals, that's an enormous amount of money.

Q: What do you think of Bill Smith so far?

A: Outlook good.

The man has some balls, that much is clear.

You never see a trade like this. Trading young talent for young talent is a challenge trade, virtually designed to get a guy fired. If Garza becomes a stud and Young tears up his knee, Smith is dead meat. Ditto if it goes the other way for Tampa Bay's executives.

And this is an aggressive move in other ways. By moving Garza, it's clear that Smith is more open to moving surplus talent at one position than Ryan was. He traded that asset which the organization has traditionally fawned over (starting pitching) and got back something that the organization needed (offense) even though it meant downgrading their defense. On this team, swimming upstream like that looks a lot like leadership.

And maybe more impressive is that we're again seeing a creative solution. By moving Bartlett, it looks like Smith recognizes surplus talent even when it isn't obvious to others. After all, for the last two years, Nick Punto has fielded like a shortstop and hit like a shortstop. Now he likely IS a shortstop, where he's not a liability. With him around, Bartlett became expendable, for the right player.

And Delmon Young looks an awful lot like the right player.

---------------------------

OK, that's it for tonight. I think I could write about 2000 more words tonight on this trade, but the 8-Ball is tired. Instead, I'll suggest that you head over to MNGameDay.com and check out the Twins Blogs and News feed in the lower left-hand corner. There will be lots of good stuff by people that deserve your attention. And I guarantee you'll get your fill of great info and Twins takes.

Sucking the Joy Out of a Santana Trade

This Santana thing is loads of fun, isn’t it?

The speculation, I mean. After all, that’s what we like to do in the offseason. And that’s especially true for us saberbloggers and rotogeeks, who are only too happy to show off our knowledge of minor leaguers and sleeper candidates. But the real appeal is that it fires up the imagination, both for the fans lusting for that shining star and for the fan base looking for that deal that rebuilds a title shot.

But it’s not likely to stay fun, not if you’re a Twins fan, and especially not for a Twins executive. A very thin and straight line is going to need to be walked due to the impact of the no-trade clause that Santana seemingly has until…when exactly? Most sources indicate that it’s until the end of his current contract, which is the worst possible news for the Twins. That no-trade clause significantly changes their leverage, and likely makes a lot of the speculated player packages out of reach.

The sad truth is that the Twins are in a tough position even if there wasn’t a no-trade clause. With Santana’s impending free agency, there are two ways this trade can go down. It can either be a straight trade, in which case the receiving team only gets Santana for one year. Or it can be a “sign and trade” which means the Twins and another team would make a trade contingent on the other team agreeing to a contract extension with Santana within 72 hours.

For both the Twins and a trading partner a straight trade makes very little sense. Nobody is likely to offer a monstrous rebuilding package for a single year of Santana. In fact, you could argue that Santana is worth more to the Twins next year, a contending team with a young pitching staff, than he is to any other team in the majors. There’s just very little common ground for a deal. That might change as the trade deadline approaches next season. Or it might not.

But from Santana’s standpoint, the sign and trade approach doesn’t make much sense. He is already very rich, and he’s going to get richer. A year from now he’ll be courted and have his choice of teams and incredible paydays. That will all probably happen whether he is traded or not. So from Santana’s standpoint, there is only one reason to sign a new deal – he’ll get his big contract a year earlier.

That’s not a totally trivial incentive for a player, and one might think it’s even more tempting for a pitcher, because they tend to be more fragile than position players. But one doesn’t become a major league ballplayer without being comfortable with risk. Virtually nothing is guaranteed for most of these guys for the first half dozen year of their professional career. Don’t expect them to get cold feet as they approach their big payday. Especially when they already have millions in the bank.

Believe it or not, that’s not the bad news. But we’re getting closer.

Because even if Santana is willing to sign with a specific team a year early, the moment that realization hits, Santana’s allegiances change. If he chooses the team he wishes to sign with, he can just refuse to sign with any other team. The Twins will be in a position of either accepting his choices for a sign and trade deal, or another team’s straight trade deal. It’s an uneven playing field.

And now we get to the bad news.

Because the Twins can’t even do that. They can’t get the minimum return they might receive if they trade Santana to a different team. They can’t send him somewhere at the trade deadline to a team desperate for an ace. Because of the no-trade clause they can’t do any of that without Santana’s approval, and once he settles on the team he wants, there is no point in granting that approval. The Twins will be in an “or-else” position with Santana’s chosen trading partner. And the only incentive the other team has for making the deal early is they’ll have Santana for some portion of next year.

So if you’re a team that wants Santana, what should your strategy be? Put together a list of killer talent to offer the Twins? Hell, no. The winning strategy is to lobby Santana without actually getting charged with MLB’s tampering charges. You can bet that some players from the Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are offering to take Johan on some vacations this winter.

And the Twins strategy? It sounds like they’re doing it:
Open negotiations and as part of those negotiations, get a counter-proposal. They desperately needed to have some idea of what Santana and his agent have in mind for money and what else he might be looking for. Now they need find a couple of teams that can fulfill those wishes and play them off against each other. In theory, if the Twins can find a team that satisfies Santana’s wishes, they at least have a decent chance that a deal will get done.

Keep this on the QT. The larger the media circus that surrounds this, the harder it will be to be to enforce the non-tampering rules, and that is the single most important strategy the Twins have. If Santana, who shouldn’t be talking to anyone, chooses a single team, the battle is lost.

Understand that the Twins have a no-trade clause, too. This is important in two ways. First, they don’t need to trade this guy, which theoretically puts them on even ground with Santana. If they don't make a deal, Santana will need to stay healthy and put up huge numbers for another year. There’s some leverage in that.

But it's equally important when talking to other teams. As they quietly approach potential trading partners, the Twins need to make it VERY clearn that if they even get a whiff that the other team is dealing with Santana directly, they're out. After all, the Twins have incentives to keep Santana too, like a chance at winning in 2008 and the draft picks that will come back as compensation if he walks as a free agent.

This is a tough situation for the Twins. It requires some creativity, persuasion and serious poker skills. And for Twins fans, it’s going to require some patience, trust and probably lower expectations. Because it’s not likely to turn out the way we’ve pictured so far. And if the tightrope act falters, it has the potential to be a full-blown disaster.

So, are you still having fun?

Hunter a White Sock within a week?

Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin in earnest. The Sun-Times is reporting that:

"Sources both in the Sox organization and the camp of
free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter have told the Sun-Times that the two sides could be signing a contract within the week."

The door is left open later:

"While an agreement had not been reached as of Monday afternoon, the source said that 'the climate'’ was there for a deal to be announced soon, unless another team comes in at the last second and blows Hunter away with an offer."

Apparantly, the Jon Garland - Orlando Cabrera trade that the White Sox made yesterday was in anticipation of this possible deal. There is no mention of what the terms of the contract might be.

It's interesing, and a little terrifying, but it's also mighty short on details for a done deal. Let's see what else is dug up here before we get too carried away.

Doing The Little Things Right

It used to be a point of pride. Now it's a ridiculed cliche. "The Twins Do The Little Things Right".

Usually that phrase has been applied to on-field play (though not deservedly this last year) but it's also been generally applicable to player personnel moves (though not deservedly this last year). Twins fans hope that attention to detail returns on the field. Twins Geeks hope it returns off the field.

Mabye it is. When I turned a critical eye toward the Monroe trade on Tuesday, it still wasn't a trade, only a rumor. But, as usual, the details matter, and they're showing some creative thinking on behalf of the organization.

To be honest, I don't think I've ever heard of a trade quite like it. The Twins and Cubs structured this so the Twins basically acquired exlusive negotiating rights to Monroe for the next month. If they don't get a deal done, they basically lose nothing. And if they do get a deal done, they lose very little besides some money.

Some of the criticisms still stand. Monroe still is nothing more than a deceivingly shaky fallback option. Also, the most the Twins can reduce his salary is 20%, which would mean he makes around $4 million next year, which is still probably too much for someone with his history. And finally, it's not clear the Twins truly understand that their biggest and riskiest investment is playing time.

But there's enough positives to make me gloss over the queasy feeling the accompanied the news that the Twins apparently made this deal without understanding whether they could negotiate a 20% or 40% pay cut for Monroe from last year's salary. Hey, what's a million dollars when you've got Carl's checkbook, right?

Or could it be that is another ploy, used to negotiate Monroe closer to the 20% cut? Far-fetched? Maybe, but my paradigm on this new regime has shifted a little. Objectively, all that's changed over the last 48 hours is that the Twins will likely spend $1 million less than I thought, may not give up anything from their minors, and may even throw Monroe back like an undersized walleye. Should that really be enough to change my view?

Maybe not. But the outside-the-box nature of this trade raises the possiblity that the Twins are suddenly acting a little smarter - and more creatively - than we're used to. For Twins fans starved for some pride in the local nine, that's not such a little thing.

Queasy

And the Bill Smith era begins with....well, a kind of queasy feeling.

The rumored trade for outfielder Craig Monroe is going to be spun as a risk-taking move, and maybe even a steal. It will be taken as a sign that the Twins are willing to part with minor league talent to win now. Focus will be place on Monroe’s 30 home run power and RBI ability in 2006, and on the effect injuries had on him last year. But most of all, Monroe’s right-handed bat will look like a possible replacement for Torii Hunter’s offensive production.

And all of these are kind of true.

But there are other truths, too, and they’re truths that lead to a queasy feeling inside. Starting with:

Monroe is not as good as his numbers.
Simply put, Monroe is a right-handed version of Jacque Jones. His power is balanced out by his lack of plate discipline, and his numbers were enhanced by where he was hitting in Detroit’s lineup. In 2006, he hit 28 home runs and tallied 89 RBI, both impressive totals. He also hit just .255 and got on base at just a .301 clip. If you’ve been pining for those all-or-nothing at-bats that Jacque used to take, you’re going to like Mr. Monroe.

He’s older than you think.
Monroe burst onto the scene with Detroit just a couple of years ago, so it’s easy to think of him as a prospect. He’s not. He’s going to be 31 by the time spring training starts and one way or the other his decline started last year, when he hit just .219. Whether that was due to the patellar tendonitis and back problems, his age, or some combination of both doesn’t really matter. Either way, there’s no real upside here beyond 2008.

He’s expensive.
Believe it or not, the Twins came into this offseason with money to burn, having something like $25 million that they could throw at free agents or retaining players like Hunter. Monroe is now going to take up at least $5 million of that, unless they have the foresight to insist that they negotiate a contract with him prior to the trade, which is REALLY unlikely to have happened for a player of his stature.

He’s likely not worth the prospect they gave up.
If the Twins gave up anything more than a warm bucket of spit, they likely got rooked in this deal. If Monroe wasn’t traded, he was going to be non-tendered and would have been available on the free agent market. It’s unlikely the Twins would’ve had to pay him the salary they’ll need to now if they had gone that path.

The only real positive news here is that the Twins have reduced their risk level a bit if Hunter leaves. But they did so by acquiring a bargain level veteran who isn’t as good as his stats, with very little upside, who they’re likely paying too much. And so Twins fans are left hoping that the Twins know something that we don’t. Or we’re left trusting that the Twins scouting is doing a better job than they’ve done the last couple years with similar players.

Or we’re left embracing a slightly familiar queasy feeling.

On Losing Control

Philadelphia Phillies announce they've signed JC Romero (LHP) to a three-year contract for $12 million.

Blink. Blink.

I learned first hand that there are plenty of pitfalls to being an earnest young man, starting with the limits it places on your sense of appropriate behavior. Earnest, serious analysis has its time and place, but there are also times to be stupid. Or, in the words of Walter “Gib” Gibson, “What the hell's wrong with being stupid once in awhile?”

The foremost example of this philosophy is matters of the heart. There is precious little room for analysis in intimacy. Letting someone you barely know into your bed and falling asleep naked next to him or her is an act of insanity. You need to play a ridiculous game, and act the fool to get anywhere near love.

So you had better get a highly developed sense of humor, and quick. That walk of shame can crush oneself quick if you can’t laugh at your own actions, weaknesses, and kitschy sexual predilections. Just what was it that drew you to her, exactly? Where did that feeling come? And most importanly, what were you thinking?

You’re a good way towards the answers when you can shake your head and laugh at the results.

I hope this morning Philadelphia Phillies GM Pat Gillick is laughing at himself and the chemical hold that JC Romero seemingly has on him, because I assure you, he’s likely to be fielding some calls from his fraternal brothers.

“Mr. Gillick? Mr. Ryan is on line one.”“Dude, you know he went after my manager’s door with a bat, right? A BAT. And that was after we’d sent him down to the minors to get his head straight. Sleep tight, buddy.”
“I’ve told Mr. Epstein several times that you’re busy, but he keeps calling. He’s on line two.”
“You just can’t get enough of my throwaways, can you buddy? Listen, I hear you, it’s closing time, you’re in the game and he looks like the complete package. But let me warn you – no control. Or maybe you like that type, eh?”

The danger is that this wasn’t just a temporary case of beer goggles. Maybe Gillick really is smitten. He’s a sharp guy, but even the smartest people think that this time is different. Maybe the object of my affection has changed. Or worse, maybe I can be the one that changes them.

I can see where Gillick might think that, seeing as Romero had a 1.24 ERA in his time with the Phillies. But his fundamental problem – the aforementioned lack of control – doesn’t seem to have changed. In his 36 spectacular innings with the Phils, he still walked 25 guys, which is about par. He succeeded despite that wildness because nobody could actually hit him. Which He raises the possibility that maybe the NL batters just haven’t figured out to show a little patience with him.

Now they’ll have three years to work on it, which is damn near an eternity for formerly free-falling Romero. After all, two years ago he was worth $2.2 million and a mid-level prospect. One year ago, he was worth $1.6 million. Five months ago, he was available for free. But today he’s worth $12 million over three years.

And, hopefully, a good self-deprecating laugh.

Question for Everyone....

Does anyone know the specifics of Johan's no-trade clause?

I think I know this:
1. He had one from last year for his final position in the Cy Young race.
2. He didn't get one this year from his final position in the Cy Young race.

But does anyone know how long the no-trade clause from last year lasts? Does it extend through the end of his contract? Until the trade deadline? Until Opening Day? Until the first of the year?

For those people who think trading Santana is something that probably should be done, this isn't a small issue. If Johan gets to pick what team the Twins can trade with (ala Griffey) the Twins leverage in a trade could be significantly different than it is if they can take the best offer. If the no-trade clause lasts until Opening Day, trading him during the season might give them a lot more leverage than they would have this offseason.

Thanks for any info anyone can provide.
John

Tough Call

We must be made of stone. Because there's just no two ways about it - you need to be tough to be a Twins fan.

Start by withstanding decades of losing. Follow that by gazing stoically at botched stadium and broadcast negotiations. Then trust in mercurial young talent. And then wave goodbye to old friends. And finally, bear the playoff losses, knowing that a return next year is never a given.

Now, as we face a possible end of the Twins competitive cycle, we find a fresh new hell - the gamble. Faced with an impending doom, our team must start rolling the dice for one more shot at glory, picking up players whose only guarantee is that they’ll provide some sleepless nights. Whether we want to face it or not, the Twins entered that phase two years ago, when players like Tony Batista, Rondell White, Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz made their way onto the roster.

Oh, sure, there are always good reasons. He just needs a change of scenery. He's off the sauce. He contributes with his glove. And my favorite: he looked pretty good in Japan.

But the most dangerous reasons, and the most seductive, are usually about health. Extrapolate his statistics for a full year, and he would have 25+ home runs. He's taken longer to recover than we thought from that freak accident, but he could become that star he was supposed to be. Plus, he's adjusting his offseason regimen to keep those hamstrings healthy for the whole year.

You might want to start getting accustomed to those last three examples, because I didn't just make those up. Or rather, I did, but I did it unintentionally, as rumors started swirling about the Twins talking to the Devil Rays about centerfielder Rocco Baldelli. It was a reflex. A seductive, damning reflex.

If he can stay healthy, Baldelli has the potential to be a dream pickup for the Twins. He's just 26 years old. He was once the top prospect in the game. He held his own as a starting centerfielder when he was just 21 years old. He posted a 872 OPS (.302/.339/.533) in 2006.

Oh, and for the Twins, his contract is especially delicious, as he makes just $2.25 million next year, and the Twins have three more years of team options. He could replicate Torii Hunter's offensive production at a fraction of the cost, and would be under contract through 2011. If he can stay healthy, he's perfect.

Of course, if he could stay healthy, he wouldn't be available. He hasn't been remotely close to healthy for three years running. First, he tore up his ACL in a backyard ballgame in October of 2004. When that healed, he developed elbow problems that led to Tommy John surgery. (So much for 2005.) His elbow was basically healed and he was throwing during spring training before the 2006 season.

That's when the hamstring injuries started. They limited him to 374 at-bats in 2006, but he put up Hunteresque numbers as a 24-year-old. During the offseason, he proclaimed that those injuries were likely behind him. They weren't. In fact, last year he was out most of the year, getting just 137 at-bats, and hitting just .205.

So, in true tough guy fashion, you really need to ask yourself - are you feeling lucky, punk? Because the team that is giving him up is the freaking Devil Rays. If ever there was a franchise that was able to accept risk, this is that franchise. This is the team that carried Elijah Dukes into the season - and he was a legitimate threat to kill a random bystander at some point during the season. The D-Rays eat risk for breakfast.

But Rocco Baldelli and his amazing hamstrung hamstrings? Apparently that's just crazy.

And it's not like the Twins can point to a lot of recent success in this area. Rondell White leaps immediately to mind. Jason Kubel has taken a year longer to recover than anyone thought. And the Metrodome's concrete underbelly has taken its toll on Cristian Guzman's back, Joe Mauer's knees and Jason Bartlett's neck. Hell, our manager went in for surgery last year. When the coaching staff needs to play through pain, it’s not a good sign.

On the other hand, the clichéd secret is to buy low and sell high. Baldelli's stock may well sink lower. It can always sink lower. But it’s pretty damn low. At this time last year, trade rumors surrounding him included names like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was the primary chip that landed Mark Teixeira at the trade deadline. The Devil Rays apparently wanted more than that. Now? The Twins are likely dangling a young pitcher that isn't Matt Garza or Francisco Liriano.

Which brings us to another factor that makes this deal so seductive - it precludes almost nothing. If the Twins made this trade, they would still have plenty of money to spend. They'd still have plenty of pitching to deal. They could still re-sign Hunter and play Baldelli at DH (where he presumably could stay healthier). And they would have insurance if Hunter left. And that insurance would be very young, very cheap, and provide plenty of payroll flexibility.

But it's a huge gamble, and precisely the sort of move over which bloggers and the local media have feasted (see Ortiz, Ramon and Ponson, Sidney). That isn't likely to stop if Baldelli ends up on the DL for a month, which means Bill Lee is going to need to be every bit as tough as his fans.

But the Twins are at a point where gambling makes sense, whether we want to admit it or not. And if you're looking to gamble on toughness, who better than a guy named Rocco?

Stop Me If You've Heard This One Before....

You’ve likely heard the joke, though I won’t blame you if you’ve forgotten it.

A guy brings his family to the stadium to watch his favorite, but terrible, sports team. But he accidentally leaves the four tickets on his car dashboard. When he returns to the car, he finds the windshield smashed and in the spots where the four tickets were he finds....

....eight tickets.

That’s the joke I thought about as we walked back towards our car at halftime of the Gophers-Illinois game on Saturday night. I was walking with The Voice of Reason™ and The Boy™, and another family with two boys, age seven and nine. The three boys were about as excited and energetic as they had been all night. Because we were leaving.

I don’t know the last time I went to a homecoming game for the U. My impression? I think it’s probably a pretty good place to sober up, and that’s good, because there were a fair amount of college students who could use precisely that kind of help. Not that I blame them. I don’t think I’ll make the mistake of attending another Gophers game without some serious toxins in my nervous system.

Otherwise, it’s just too painful. I took our family and our friends to the game because the tickets were free. I treated the kids to popcorn and some pop and the beautifully occupying magical malt cup. And I STILL felt like I was torturing them.

It was that bad. The score was 7-0 before we sat down. It was 14-0 before I brought them the popcorn. When the Gophers pulled within 11 points, it felt like a moral victory. Within fifteen minutes, the boys started spacing out, which meant they missed out on both opportunities to cheer. The Boy™’s favorite part was watching the Illinois cheerleaders do their pushups and flips.

I mean, I’m dealing with grade school boys here. There is absolutely NO WAY to interest them in a football team that is perennially terrible. Which is why I’m barely a Gopher fan, because I was in their shoes thirty years ago. And why I feel so silly writing this. The stadium was half empty for its homecoming. We now have several generations of kids trained in apathy. Do I really think anyone is going to be reading this?

With two minutes left in the first half, I realized that every minute longer was another minute too many. This wasn’t a nice family outing. This was the 21st century equivalent of the endless wood-paneled station wagon treks with the family across Nebraska. The high point was going to be the end. And the low point was going to be every single minute before the end. And if you add up all of those single minutes, I think we’re going on something like forty years.

So as we walked back to the car, I reflected. I had spent my Saturday night introducing my son and his friends to the joke that is U of M football.

I won’t blame them if they do their best to forget it.

The KG5: One Win and One Loss

The Timberwolves made some news late Wednesday night that is sure to excite both of their remaining fans, signinged Al Jefferson to a five-year deal for $65 million. The deal will keep Jefferson in Target Center through 2012-2013 and is the single largest justification for one-fifth of the trade of Kevin Garnett.

Which is good. Because they followed that signing by throwing another fifth of it into the trash.

Give credit to the dailies for noting that Wolves chose not to pick up their 4th-year contract option of Gerald Green, another player from the Celtics who came over in the Garnett trade. By not exercising their option (one designed to keep young, talented players affordable), the Wolves essentially granted Green unrestricted free agency at the end of the year.

He’ll be a free agent as a 22- year-old, because, like Jefferson, Green was drafted by the Celtics right out of high school. He’s played in the NBA for just two years, and last year the 6’ 7” swing man averaged over 10 points and 22 minutes with the Celtics. Presumably, that was enough to make him desirable for the Wolves. Desirable enough to include him in the Garnett deal.

And apparently, their opinion changed this preseason. Britt Robson pointed out that Green’s +/- rating this preseason was abysmal, and I’ll admit I wasn’t impressed with his performance on Friday night at Target center. On the other hand, he was one of the Wolves set to get increased minutes and benefit from the trade of Ricky Davis, and likely trade of Antoine Walker. The Wolves were poised to “See What He Could Do”.

Not anymore. Refusing to pick up this option changes everything. As an unrestricted free agent, he has no future role. And as someone with no future role, there’s no reason to invest floor time in him this season. No future, no present, and no past. By refusing to pick up this option, the Wolves essentially robbed themselves of an asset

Now, one could argue that maybe Green wasn’t an asset. He certainly hasn’t looked like one in training camp. But he WAS an asset in late July, right? And five weeks in Istanbul, playing with a new team, probably shouldn’t change that. So either the Wolves didn’t do their homework three months ago, or they messed this one up.

And even if they Wolves realized he wasn’t an asset, they could’ve done something about that before the rest of the league caught on. If there is some personal issue that we don’t know about it, move him. Include him as a sweetener to get Antoine Walker off the roster, or for another team to take Juwan Howard’s contract over.

It looks like it’s appropriate to celebrate the quick success of one of the KG5. But let’s not be so blinded by the fireworks that we miss the other side of the ledger. The Wolves record, before the season starts, already stands at one win and one loss.

Notes from a loss. And a win.

The Voice of Reason and I attended Sunday's Vikings-Eagles tilt, thanks to the kind offrer of Wolves Geek. There were highlights....

Sadly, It Does NOT Include a Cardiogram - You probably already know about Ike's weekend brunch, but if you don't, it's certainly worth checking out. That is, unless you don't like all-you-can-eat hash browns, bacon, sausage, pancakes, omelettes, quesadillas and eggs benedict. Or, you might think that a cinnamon role the size of your head is excessive. I obviously don't.

But what you might not know, and something I don't think they advertise, is that they open early on Vikings game days. They opened the doors early for us at 9:20. The only trick is that they won't seat you until your entire party is present.

In Philly, They Do Something Similar. Only It Involves Being Arrested and Sent to Kangaroo Court. - When TVOR gave her ticket to the turnstile guy, he scanned it, but said it was listed on his scanner as a stolen ticket. She was shocked, because these were Wolves Geek's season tickets. He scanned it again - still came up stolen. She pointed out that I had already been waived through, and so had both our friends. He scanned it again. Still stolen.

At which point she started stammering pointlessly - and he burst out in smile. He just wanted to give the girl in a Eagles sweatshirt a hard time.

Because You Can't March to E-A-G-L-E-S - We were sitting in the rafters, surrounded by Eagles fans, which left TVOR feeling right at home. But it was clear that our many guests were having trouble adjusting to football in the state. And none more than when they kept hearing the Vikings Skol song.

And for Childress, They've Settled on Captain Dynamic - So everytime, that Adrian Peterson had a significant run, the Jumbotron would show him along with a nickname that the Vikings marketing department has settled on. The player that Childress consistently declares is a backup and who is limited to touching the ball 20 times per game is supposed to be called "All Day".

By the way, they were ahead at the time - The Eagles fans were enjoying themselves and brought some much needed passion to the game. For instance, after one incomplete pass, I heard the following yelled in quick succession from the Birds' faithful:

"Oh, NI-I-I- ICE pass McNabb! You suck!"
"Reid! What are you doing passing on first down, you moron!"
"Reid! Why don't you take some time off and deal with your degenerate kids?!"
"Hey, it's Santa! GET HIM!"

OK, I'm making up the last one.

And that about covers it, except for the game itself. We'll nee to get back to that later in the week.