Tuesday, September 04, 2007

2008 GM Cheat Sheet (Part II)

Ok, time for the second half of the exercise. Here are your options. You're not limited to them, and feel free to push back on the price, but I'm not completely pulling these out of thin air. This is a pretty good guess to what the market will bear....

(Oh, and I apologize in advance for how far down below this the table is. It has to do with how blogger handles white space. Which, by the way is "not well". It's there. Just scroll down a bit.)

CF· Re-signing Hunter will cost approximately $16M/year for several years.
· You can offer Jason Tyner arbitration for approximately $1 million.
· You can promote Denard Span, AAA CF hitting .252/.302/.359 and pay him $.4M
· Other free agent CFs and their approximate cost…
o Aaron Rowand - $12M
o Andruw Jones - $10M
o Mike Cameron - $8M
o Corey Patterson - $4M
o Darin Erstad - $2M
3B· You can hand it back to Nick Punto (who is already listed at MI) and just list his replacement here for approximately $1M.
· You can hand it to Brian Buscher (who is already at CI) and just list his replacement here for approximately .5M
· Other free agent 3B and their approximate cost….
o Alex Rodriguez - $28M
o Mike Lowell - $12M
o Mike Lamb - $7M
o Russel Branyan, Morgan Ensberg, Abraham Nunez - $2-3M
DH· You can bring back Rondell White for…oh, who are we kidding? Nobody is bringing back Rondell White.
· Other possible free agent DHs and their approximate cost….
o Adam Dunn - $15M
o Moises Alou, Geoff Jenkins, Bobby Abreu - $8M
o Jeff Conine, Sean Casey - $6M
o Mike Sweeney - $4M
5th starter· Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey or Glen Perkins will cost about $400,000.
· Re-signing Carlos Silva will likely cost $4-5M
· If you want more experience, free agent Ps and their approximate cost….
o Curt Schilling - $15M
o Kenny Rogers, Freddy Garcia - $8M
4th OF· You can offer Jason Tyner arbitration for approximately $750,000.
· A veteran free agent will cost about $1M
Last Bench· A fifth outfielder free agent will cost about $.5M
· You can promote someone from the minors like Garret Jones, Matt Tolbert or Denard Span for $.4M
· Another middle infield free agent will cost about $.8M
· A left-handed bench bat with some power will cost about $1M.
MR· Bringing back Rincon will cost about $2 million
· You can promote a pitcher from the minors, like Glen Perkins, Carmen Cali or even start Francisco Liriano again in the bullpen for $.4M
· A veteran free agent will cost anywhere from $.5M to $2.5M depending on how much success they’ve had recently.
Long Relief· You can promote a pitcher from the minors, like Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, or Brian Duensing for $.4M
· A long relief veteran will probably cost around $1M
TOTAL$· Remember, it needs to be under $30 M unless you’re going to start searching the cushions of Carl’s couch.

How’d you do? Did you improve the offense? Did you add power? Are you relying on young pitching? And, most importantly, is your boss going to be happy with how much you spent?

Great. Now let us know by commenting below. (Unless, of course, it involves Sidney Ponson. Then you might want to try again.)


Anonymous said...

I'd say Sweeney or Abreau for the DH role. Extend Santana. Leave 3rd open to competition between Buscher, Marci, Tolbert, and Watkins... If Gardy continues to play Punto, DFA him just to keep him off the roster. If Gardy agrees to leave him as a backup, he becomes the super utility guy. Lew Ford can be my fourth OF. I'd target Kevin Cameron pretty hard for CF, or possibly work out a trade of young pitching for a ML ready centerfielder. We have enough pitching talent to fill the 5th starter and the one or two holes in the pen. If absolutely necessary, a decent reliever can be picked up in free agency for $1M.

Anonymous said...

Given the market for CF, I think we give that job to Tyner for a year. He can field it and put up a respectable OBA if used only vs. RHPs. With him at CF, the 4th OF spot will need to be a right handed guy who isn't stretched playing that position -- a guy like Marlon Byrd or (gasp) Lew Ford. Figure 2 mil for the pair. Since we are basically punting on offense in CF, we to sign two bats for DH and 3B. Though getting him would be very hard, I'd recommend going after Pat Burrell for DH and Mike Lamb at 3B. Burrell can't really play OF and Lamb is a butcher at 3B, but the two would give the Twins an intriguing batting order that would look like this:

SS Bartlett
C Mauer
DH Burrell
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
3B Lamb
LF Kubel
2B Casilla
CF Tyner/Ford/Whoever

It's not like the market will be red hot for either Burrell or Lamb, so I'm guessing the pair could be signed for between 17 to 20 mil. The 5th starter is easy: Slowey, sink or swim. The rotation would look like this:


Liriano starts the season in the bullpen and moves into the rotation in June or so and replaces the worst of Slowey or Bonser. (I'm betting Bonser here.) Both middle and long relief will go to the most deserving of the multitude of good young pitchers the Twins have scattered all through their minor league system. Ditto for long relief.

That brings the price tag to +-24 million and leaves 6 mil for the last bench spot. I would recommend a right hand bat able to play the infield corners, someone like Mark (not Mike) Sweeney, Russel Branyon, Olmedo Saenz, etc. Any would run a couple of million. That keeps me safely below 80 million. It also significantly improves my batting order. My defense takes a hit (smaller than many might think) at CF and a large one at 3B. But we need to remember that the best third basemen in the game only touch the ball 2 to 3 times a game. The biggest risk in the plan is counting on young pitchers to step up, but given current performance I simply don't see it as a risk. And I think this 25 man roster could take us a long way...

Maxisagod said...

I think Sliva will cost more than 5mil, even with a hometown discount were looking at 8 mil, 10 mil somewhere else. There is no pitchers in this year's market, so teams will be dumb with their money again. Stick with the kids.
The 3rd base market looks so weak as well, I'd promote from within, or trade I guess.
CF... I'd want to sign Jones for the 6 mil diff. from hunter, but his agent, Mr. B, has a tendency of having his guy hold off on long term deals until career years, so maybe Erstad so I can save money for Santana.
DH... I'd take Sweeney for 3 mil not 4 mil. that's my line. Don't cross it. ;)

All in all, it looks like promote from within, sign our guys to long term gigs, and get one vet who can hit middle in the order.... how boring, I better try this again. :)

Thanks Twin Geek, these cheat sheets are always a blast.

Mr. Smith said...

John, not that the Twins are going to land him, but you forgot Kosuke Fukudome among your center fielders. He's a true Japanese free agent so teams interested won't have to pay an absurd posting fee.

He should challenge Matsui for the best power numbers from a Japanese player in Major League Baseball. He's a lefty that has really good bat speed, hits a lot of line drives and posts excellent on-base percentages (he is very patient at the plate). As for defense he's either an excellent right fielder (he's a former shortstop with a very strong and accurate arm) or an acceptable center fielder.

He's two years younger than Hunter, and I'd rather the Twins offer him the same deal they do/have to Hunter as he'll be the better of the two over the length of their deals.

Anonymous said...

I think the priority would be to sign Hunter, the real problem with that is not next year's salary but how many years. I would also grab Silva at $5 million. Buscher takes third base, Punto and Rodriguez are the backups in the middle infield and along with Tyner and Redmond that gives you four bench players.

Liriano takes the fifth spot in the rotation and Rincon, Crain and Bonser are in the bullpen. Somebody is bound to get hurt or fall apart.

The DH/Bat off the bench is the hardest part of this. Once you have signed Hunter and Silva you still need to have the flexibility to extend the contracts of some of the other young players. So I would look for a right handed bat who terrorizes lefties. Mauer, Tyner, Redmone and Kubel can share most of the DH duties against righties.

Anonymous said...

Rowand, Lowell, Sweeney; keep Tyner; kids for the rest of the spots.

It's just over 30 million, so I'm gonna go wrestle with the old guy.

Skp said...

okay...how is this one:
replace Hunter with TYNER
Add LOWELL at 3B
Add DUNN at DH
Everyone else at Serf salaries...utilize the great young guys!!


Unknown said...

1i think this is simple, go after jones at the 10 mil. range if you can pay him less then hunter and rowland, go for it. 2. plan on punto being bench and offer a spring trianing invite to a vet and see how they do, plan on using buscher. 3. bring back tyner. 4. let the young pitchers battle it out in spring trianing, best ones start, other in BP. plan on Liriano, and slowey starting, put perkings in BP. 4. sign Mark Sweeney. 5. Do NOT RESIGN Sliva and Rincon, they are not worth it, plus Rincon has lost something. 6. pay Santana. there u go. cheap and easy, if u cant sign Jones call up span and call him a back up. P.S say hello to Morgan Ensberg, folks

Anonymous said...

silly question, but why isn't Barry Bonds on your list for possible DH. Bonds bat in the lineup will be just as good if not better than Hunter (especially if he is hitting behind Mauer and in front of Justin M). Bonds is thinking of playing another year and even if he only hits 20 homers and drive in 90 runs that will be far better than what we have in that spot.

Besides than Kubel is in left. I'll have to do the rest of the exercise later, but the price for Bonds for the Twins (especially if you view it as a fix to help win in just 2008 and get closer to the new stadium and higher payroll dollars)

What do you think?

Walter Hanson