On a Book, Two Pitches & Rage

Umpires have biases. And we want them to.

To illustrate that, I want to talk about two pitches from the Cleveland series. Not two pitchers, mind you – just two pitches. Seriously. But first I want to talk about a book, then how it changed how I watched baseball forever, and finally about why I flew into a rage on Wednesday night.

The Book
The book is called Scorecasting by Tobias J Moskowitz and L. Jon Weerthem. It looks like it’s similar to the book Freakonomics, except that it focuses exclusively on sports. I say “seems” because I haven’t read it yet, at least not completely. However, if you have an iPad or iPhone, you can download the first chapter for free – and just that much has changed forever how I watch baseball.

The chapter is about a bias that umpires have because they are, with the possible exception of Joe West, human. And humans are far more willing to forgive an error of omission over an error of commission. That is, we are more willing to forgive an error caused by doing nothing over an error caused by doing something. And thus humans are for more willing to commit an error of omission over an error of commission, because it gets us into less trouble. I’ll give an example from the book:

“In a well-known psychological experiment, the subjects were posed the following question: Imagine there have been several epidemics of a certain kind of flu that everyone contracts and that can be fatal to children under three years of age. About 10 out of every 10,000 children with this flu will die from it. A vaccine for the flu, which eliminates the change of getting it, causes death in 5 or every 10,000 children. Would you vaccinate your child?”

Most parents opted to NOT to vaccinate their child, despite it halving the chances of their child dying. The thought of doing something to the child which would cause his or her death was worse than the though of doing nothing and doubling the chances of death.

The Games
The same bias is statistically apparent in umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes and now I can’t help but notice it.

In 2007, mlb.com installed the pitch f/x equipment in all the ballparks, providing data on 2 million pitches, including 1.15 million called pitches. Suddenly we could see from data how accurate umpires were in calling balls and strikes, and whether there are any circumstances that made them less accurate. It turns out there are.

A ball that is in the strike zone is called accurately by an umpire 80.2% of the time. But that number dives if there are two strikes on the batter (and it isn’t a full count). Then, a ball in the strike zone is called a strike just 61.3% of the time. He’s almost twice as likely to mistakenly count a strike as a ball. Again, don’t forget – we KNOW that these are really strikes from the f/x data.

The same thing happens the other way on pitches outside the strike zone on three-ball counts, though it’s not quite so drastic. A pitch outside the strike zone is called a ball 87.8% of the time, but if there are three balls (and it’s not a full count) it’s only called a ball 84% of the time.

The reason? Because calling strike three or ball four ends the at-bat. It’s active – it affects the game far more than giving the batter and pitcher another pitch to resolve the at-bat themselves. The incentive is toward the error of omission rather than that of commission.

Incidentally, this is most apparent on borderline pitches. Over all counts, a borderline is called a strike 49.9% of the time – almost literally a coin flip. But with a 2-strike count (again not a full count) it’s called a strike just 38.2% of the time. And with a three ball count, it’s called a strike 60% of the time. The percentages become even more extreme on 3-0 and 0-2 counts.

So yesterday, in the bottom of the tenth, I completely understood the call I saw. Holding a 3-2 lead, Twins pitcher Phil Dumatrait was trying to get the first save of his career. It wasn’t going to be easy. There were two outs, but a runner was on second base, and Shin-Soo Choo had worked a 3-1 count.

The next pitch was a fastball, right on the inside edge of the strikezone. It could have gone either way, but I never doubted which way it would be called given what was at stake. Sure enough, it was strike two.

The at-bat was decided by the players on the next pitch. Shoo grounded out to first base.

The Rage
That study has made me anticipate called pitches and at-bats in a different way, usually bringing a level of peace to what I saw. It had the opposite effect on Tuesday night.

In many ways, it was the exact same situation. This time the Indians led by one in the top of the ninth and had two outs. But the Twins had a runner on second base and Michael Cuddyer was trying to drive him in.

I should also mention that isn’t a terrible situation for a baseball team. Historically, a team in that situation has still won almost 11% of their games. That’s the kind of hope that can make a fan slide forward in their seats a bit.

But there was one critical difference: the count was 2-2, not 3-1. Indians closer Chris Perez threw a fastball in a very similar place that Dumatrait would a day later, though maybe a touch more outside the zone when looking at the f/x placement. Cuddyer took the pitch, confident it was outside. But home plate umpire Adrian Johnson punched him out, ending the game.

Cuddyer’s reaction was telling. He exploded. It’s rare to see any Twin confront an umpire. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Cuddyer, of all people, get frontal with an ump. But this time he nearly pounced on him, reacting so aggressively that the Cleveland announcers thought he might have bumped him. It took two coaches to hold him back when Johnson tried to walk away.

Watching on my bedroom TV, I was going nearly as ballistic. It’s one thing to make a bad call. But to make a bad call that didn’t need to be made, that could have been avoided so the players could resolve the game instead?

This may be a bias that we, as fans, want to reward. For the first time, I thought about whether or not I really want to take that kind of call out of an umpire’s hands. Don’t we want someone who prompts the batter and pitcher to resolve their conflicts themselves? Even if it might not be a perfectly accurate call.

On Runs, Common Sense & Baserunning

I’ve heard it said that sabremetrics biggest contribution is to validate common sense. There is some truth to that. For instance, last night, with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, Michael Cuddyer was thrown out stealing third base. There is no question that is a boneheaded play. Cuddyer can already score without the team getting a base hit, just by advancing on balls in play. And getting to third base doesn’t increase his chances of scoring that much considering there are no outs. That’s common sense.

When it happened, rather than launch into a “What is in that young man’s head?” rant, announcer Bert Blyleven said something to the affect of “If you’re going to try to steal that base in that situation, you had better make it.” He’s right, and if you want to confirm how dunderheaded that steal was, that’s exactly how you do it – by measuring just how often it needs to pay off to make it worthwhile.

You do that with something called the Run Expectancy Matrix. It is what it says it is: a table that shows how many runs can be expected to score in an inning, based on historical data. For instance, for the years 1993-2010, the table on the right shows the average runs that scored in an inning for every combination of outs and baserunners:

So, when an inning begins without any runners on base and 0 outs, the matrix says an average of .544 runs were scored. But if the leadoff batter gets on first, an average of .941 runs are scored. By getting on base, the leadoff batter did his part to add 4/10 of a run to his team.

Using a table like this, you can validate that Cuddyer had to be very sure to steal that base. Stealing it would have increased the teams run expectancy from 1.556 to 1.853, or about 3/10 of a run. But getting caught cut the run expectancy from 1.556 to .562, almost a full run. With those numbers, if he doesn’t make it 77% of the time, it’s a bad play. That’s a high percentage when it comes to stealing bases.

It made me wonder what the stats would say about some baserunning earlier in the game. The inning before, Ben Revere had got on base and stole second with one out. Batting behind him were Rene Rivera and Matt Tolbert.

To me, the obvious move is to try and steal third base. With one out, that really increases the chance of him getting home, especially with two guys batting their weight behind him. I might even go so far as to say that it is even more important than stealing second base to put himself into “scoring position.”

But that is definitely not common sense. I’ve been told by people I respect that I’m an idiot for even suggesting Revere attempt that steal. Why lose a guy in scoring position, just to get him a little further into scoring position? So let’s evaluate that statistically using the same matrix.

First, I’ll point out that stealing second base increased the run expectancy by .16 runs. But if he steals third base, he increases the run expectancy by .26. So it is definitely valuable for him to steal that base, more so than stealing second.

But it’s also true that getting caught is a lot worse. If you crunch the numbers, one needs to be slightly more certain of stealing third base – 69% versus 67% for stealing second base. And, of course, it is usually harder to steal third base. Still, I would argue that the historically inept batters behind Revere balance some of that out. For the record, Revere didn’t score.

So in this case, statistics lend a little nuance to the debate that common sense might not have. Stealing third with one out is quite valuable valuable, and even though one needs to be a little more confident, it’s not crazy.

Triviality

A few questions that I wondered about and looked up recently…

1. So, who hit for the Twins in May?

Top of the OPS (On-base Plus Slugging) list? Alexi Casilla with a .281/.351/.424 line. Then came Denard Span (.762), Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer (.746), Justin Morneau (.723) and Trevor Plouffe (.715). Nobody had an 800 OPS.

The bottom of the list should be of no surprise to Twins fans. Delmon Young, in 66 AB, had a line of .197/.206/.242 – and still wasn’t the lowest regular. Drew Butera’s 346 OPS (.137/.170/.176) beat him out in a (sigh) not especially close race.

2. Am I right in thinking that Span’s defense has improved?

The defensive metrics imply that he’s getting to more hits. Span’s UZR this year in center field is +10, meaning he’s saved 10 runs over an average center fielder. That puts him on pace to save something like 30 runs over the course of the season, which is Gomezian or even Hunterrific.

Carlos Gomez, by the way, is about six runs better than average. And his on-base percentage has actually dipped this year, to .280. But that may represent progress, as he’s on pace for a career record number of walks with 13 so far. His career high is 25.

3. How soon before I watch a shortstop routinely make routine plays look routine?

This one struck me on Tuesday night at the exact moment that Matt Tolbert’s bone-headed throw to third base sailed over Danny Valencia’s confused head. I consider myself a pretty calm, analytical and detached guy – but that was the straw-brained play that broke this camel’s back. Why could he not make that throw? Why would he try that throw before looking to see if Valencia is on third? Why try that throw at all considering the easy play was at first and it would be the second out? The questions came in waves – and so did the rage.

The answer – and maybe my salve – is that Tsuyoshi Nishioka made it into a rehab game on Monday and Wednesday and will again today. He’ll likely begin a rehab assignment no later than Saturday, the 4th. Which means that barring any injuries (knock, knock) I’ll be seeing him no later than the 25th, if not earlier.

Believe me, I remember how overmatched he looked that first week. But he didn’t look blatantly stupid. And I’ve seen way too much stupid at that position the last couple of weeks. Let the countdown begin.

4. What is it that misery loves again?

Answer: Company. Or alcohol. Fortunately, we can provide you both.

On Friday night, the Twins face the Royals at 7:10 PM. They’ll play in Kansas City, which has a beautiful stadium and fantastic BBQ, but is eight hours (and a whole Iowa) away. So what to do?

Join myself and the rest of the TwinsCentric guys at Smalley’s near Target Field. They’re giving us appetizer specials and (more importantly for people watching the game) drink specials. We’ll have some kind of raffle for some front row Twins tickets and other stuff where the money will go to the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society. We’ll watch the game, bitch about Casilla, Hoey, Delmon, etc., and you can tell me, Nick, Seth and Parker exactly how stupid we really are. Sounds like a pretty solid Friday night to me.

We’ll see you there. If you have any questions, post ‘em in the comments below.

Sometimes...

...a player just isn’t who you want him to be. Case in point: Kevin Slowey.

The highest praise you heap on Kevin Slowey is that his career ERA is 4.43.

Again, that’s the best thing. And that’s not a particularly good thing. That career ERA is higher than that of any other Twins starting pitcher, including the two guys most commonly mentioned as pitchers he could replace, Nick Blackburn (4.37) and Brian Duensing (3.37). It’s even a skosh worse than Carlos Silva (4.42) had with the Twins, for chrissakes.

But it is better than some others. For instance, it’s better than Rick Reed (4.47). It’s better than Kyle Lohse (4.88). It’s better than RA Dickey (4.62) and Boof Bonser (5.10). It’s even a little better (so far) than Glen Perkins (4.58).

If you think Slowey is a better pitcher than that - if you think he’s not in that class, maybe he isn’t the player you want him to be.

There aren’t a lot of other stats that can dress him up any better than ERA. He gives up a LOT of hits. The average major league pitcher gives up about one per inning. Slowey has pitched 488 innings and given up 547 hits. To his credit, he makes up for it a little bit by not walking too many guys.

He’s a fly ball pitcher and has given up a LOT of home runs. The average pitcher gives up about one per nine innings. In those 488 innings, an average pitcher would have given up about 54. Slowey has given up 76.

And, by far the biggest problem is that he has had maddeningly short outings. It takes him a lot of pitches to retire batters. His best year ever, he pitched 160 innings. Last year, mostly due to leaving games early, he had a total of eight quality starts (in 28 games started). By comparison, in his 13 starts, Duensing had nine quality starts.

You know what you call a guy with that resume? A fringe starter. A swing man. If you think he’s more than that, maybe he just isn’t who you want him to be.

Those are exactly the tags the Twins tried out this year, and it hasn’t gone well. But make no mistake: the person most responsible for this debacle is Slowey – and it’s not a close call. To criticize the Twins for accurately evaluating Slowey’s track record and plugging him into a role that reflects that track record is ludicrous.

I understand that Slowey probably isn’t too fond of those plans. I suspect he thinks they are unfair, or don’t utilize him to his full potential. The bottom line: he thinks he’s better than that. But Kevin, you’re now in year four of your major league career and the track record is pretty clear. You might want to step back and evaluate.

Have you been the player you want yourself to be?

Late Night Musings

Stuff I looked up during the Twins game today.

1. Before the game I wondered if there was an easy way to show that the Twins hitting is a much bigger problem than their pitching. Despite being last in the league in runs, the answer is “no,” because the Twins are last in ERA, too. They’re also second to last in total runs given up. And their starters are third to last in the league in ERA while also logging the third fewest innings. And they're 27th in quality starts. That about does it.

2. Justin Morneau gets the scoring started when he singles on a breaking ball from Brandon McCarthy. Giving Morneau a breaking ball seemed like an odd choice. Sure enough, according to myinsideedge.com, he is only hitting .208 on fastballs this year. The MLB average is .290.

3. Oakland gains the lead on a single following TWO fielding gaffes. With two outs, Casilla makes a great play to range far to his left to field a ground ball, but Morneau was also trying for the ball and Pavano didn’t cover the bag. Then, on a routine groundball, Plouffe absolutely air mails a ball that would’ve ended the inning.

I haven’t seen Plouffe’s defensive metrics yet because he hasn’t logged enough time to make them meaningful. But his error total went down from 26 in 111 games in 2009 to 11 in 92 games last year. That doesn’t speak to his range, but he looks like he’s certainly worked on his consistency. That was his first error in the majors this year.

4. Want some good news? The Twins batters BABIP is just .264, also last in the majors. Why is that good news? Because it suggests there is some tough luck going on, too.

5. After retaking the lead 3-2, the Twins had their inning cut short by an odd 3-6 double play. The ground ball was hit by Morneau to the A’s first baseman who tagged first base, then threw it to second base where the runner (Trevor Plouffe) was tagged out before he got to the base.

I was asked why the runner had to be tagged. The answer is that once first base was tagged, Morneau was out, so that base was open, so Plouffe had the option to return to it. Thus, it wasn’t a force play and Plouffe needed to be tagged - just stepping on the base wasn't enough. I thought that was instinctual, but the answer wasn’t instinctual to the person I was talking to. I wondered what the rule really was.

In particular, it made me wonder what would’ve happened if Plouffe had gone back to first – but that Morneau (perhaps the fielder missed the bag) had not been forced out. Obviously they can’t both be on the bag. I knew the rule said that one runner was out, and I assumed it would be the lead runner – which is why the lead runner runs. That is the answer, by the way, by rule 7.08:

7.08 A runner is out when
"(e) He fails to reach the next base before a fielder tags him or the base, after he has been forced to advance by reason of the batter becoming a runner.

But that’s only because of the force out. The rule changes if two runners end up on the same base where it isn’t a force out. For example, imagine a runner is trapped in a run down and forced back to a base that already had a player on his own team. However, one of the other bases before that base is open, so it isn’t a force out. In that case, it isn’t the lead runner that is out. It’s the other runner, but only after he is tagged:

7.03. "Two runners may not occupy a base, but if, while the ball is alive, two runners are touching a base, the following runner shall be out when tagged. The preceeding runner is entitled to the base."

Or at least, I think that's how I read it. Unless they're talking about which runner got to the base first.

6. I’m at the point now where I trust Glen Perkins as much, if not more, than anyone else in the bullpen. I didn’t look anything up to confirm that. I just feel the need to say it.

7. Twins versus the AL Central so far this year – 5-6. That means they have 61 games left to play in their division, and since the split to three divisions per league, that’s been a helluva strong indicator of who wins the division. Remember that the next time someone tells you the division race is already over.

Dwelling on the Negative

Cuz really, what else is there to do right now?

Morneau

The other day I tweeted something to the affect of “It is well past time for Morneau to move out of the cleanup spot.” Statistically, there is no question it is well past time. That .214 batting average and .317 slugging average just can’t be in a critical lineup spot. Know how low a .317 slugging percentage is? Nick Punto’s career slugging percentage is .322.

You can make a pretty good argument that Morneau’s slump has had a bigger negative impact on the Twins than any other factor. Actually, you can make a statistical argument using Win Probability Added. Morneau has the lowest WPA on the team, which means his struggles in high leverage moments has hurt the team’s chances to win more than any other player. At least with Joe Mauer, when he went on the DL, his replacement haven’t bated cleanup.

But soon after I tweeted that, I realized that I was dead wrong – in a way that made me feel even worse. Because who DOES hit cleanup on this team? Cuddyer? He’s not much better. Valencia? Again, not much better. About the only thing I might suggest is swapping Jason Kubel and Morneau so Kubel protects Morneau – but that means Morneau bats third? Seriously? Seriously. Kill me.

Cuddyer

We’re letting Michael Cuddyer off too easy. Partly that’s because he hasn’t been trusted with a prime lineup spot like Morneau. Partly that’s because his positional flexibility often allows the Twins to promote their best bench player to the starting lineup. But his 656 OPS ranks 24th among right fielders.

Looking at that list, I can’t help but realize that a lot of fairly big names are having similarly crummy starts. Just above Cuddyer on that list are Torii Hunter (673 OPS) and Ichiro Suzuki (712 OPS). Immediately below him are Shin-Soo Choo (650), Nick Swisher (637) and Nick Markakis (627).

That heartens me a bit. I full expect a lot of those names in that group to bounce back strong. I’m hoping Cuddyer, who has benefited financially from some pretty torrid hot streaks, is one of them.

Mendoza

Let’s count how many Twins are below the Mendoza line (.200 batting average), shall we?

Rene Tosoni (.171), Alexi Casilla (.175), Matt Tolbert (.177), Ben Revere (.188), Drew Butera (.109) and Rene Rivera (.000).

That’s six. But here’s the punchline:

On any given night at least three – and often four – of those guys MUST be in the lineup. Rivera and Butera are the only two catchers on the roster. Revere or Tosoni need to play left field. And some combination of Tolbert, Casilla and Luke Hughes (.246) man the two middle infield spots.

The good news? There is a share of potential and youth in that group. If the team had planned for a rebuilding year, that is what we would be hanging onto. Instead, I can’t help but focus on an offense that is dead last in MLB in runs scored, and has way too many vacancies to hope for much more any time soon.

Cleveland's Clock

Please, I’m begging you, quit trying to make me care about how far the Twins are behind the Indians. It doesn’t matter. Because the Indians don’t matter. At least not yet.

Cleveland started out they year by feasting on crummy teams. They’ve improved to 20-9 – including a recent seven-game winning streak - because they continue to feast on crummy teams. If the Indians are legit, we aren’t going to know it while they’re playing Seattle, Baltimore, Kansas City and a Victor Martinezless Detroit. (By the way, they’re 14-2 against those teams.)

The soonest the Indians can prove they’re legitimate is the middle of June. Currently, they’re on a west coast trip against Oakland and the Angels, then come home to face the Rays. Then they have another chance to fatten up their record before starting a touch stretch at the end of May. They face the Reds and Red Sox at home. Then come the Rays, Blue Jays, Rangers, Twins and Yankees. My prediction? They’re no more than five games over .500 by June 14th.

And speaking of facing the Twins, the Twins have 16 games left to make up whatever deficit they have. Last year Cleveland was 6-12 against the Twins. This year they’re 0-2. The Twins don’t play them again for over a month, by which time they should be (knock, knock) healthier. They also play each other six times in the last two weeks of the season.

So don’t ask me to explain the Tribe’s hot start. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. This division will be decided in September, not April.

So let’s keep it simple: the Twins need to start playing well. In a very winnable AL Central, everything else is just clamor. And that is especially true for Cleveland. How the Indians are doing now, or where they are in the standings, doesn’t matter.

Here’s what I can’t get past – 94 wins.

I watch the games. I can read the stats. I’ve seen the ineptitude and the disabled list and the standings and the anger. I’ve seen that it isn’t just that they’re losing, it’s how they’re losing. And still, I keep coming back to:

94 wins. That’s how many wins the Twins had last year, and this is essentially the same team. The rotation is almost exactly the same. The lineup, except for a couple of middle infielders, is the same. The bullpen is not, but the bullpen hasn’t been a huge problem. So how has this team gone from a team that legitimately won 94 games last year to a team that looks THIS hapless.

Let’s see if we can find out. We’ll start with the offense today….


Last year’s Twins team ranked 5th in the American League in offense, scoring 781 runs, or 4.82 per game. This year’s Twins team ranks last with 85 runs, which is an average of just 3.15 per game. At that rate, the Twins would score 270 runs less than last year. It would also be slightly less than Seattle’s impotent offense last year, which was damn near historical, and one hundred runs less than any other American League team.

But the makeup of the offense hasn’t changed that much from last year. The only regulars missing are JJ Hardy, who ranked 10th in Runs Created on the team, and Orlando Hudson, who ranked 8th. Together, those two were worth about 105 runs – and some of those should be made up by Alexi Casilla and the mix of second basemen. So what’s going on?

Certainly injuries are part of the problem. The Twins top two offensive producers last year (again, using Runs Created) were Delmon Young and Joe Mauer – and they’re both out right now. Justin Morneau, despite missing half the season, was also a huge run producer, accounting for 75 runs, good for 5th on the team, and he’s missed time this year, too. Jim Thome has also been out for almost a week and ranked seventh last year. Add up those four guys, and they were responsible for about 325 runs last year. That’s some big time pain.

But on top of that, all those guys, and several more, are really struggling. The stories stack on top of each other when you look at how each position is hurting

OPS by position:



At third base, Danny Valencia provided a huge boost last year, making up for miserable performances from Nick Punto and Brendan Harris. This year he has the position all to himself, but he’s hitting .211 instead of .311.

At first base, Morneau, even when healthy, has been a shell of himself. He’s hitting .225, just hit his first homerun and has an OPS of 625.

At shortstop, Casilla has been the whipping boy lately, mostly because of his defense. It’s worth noting that Punto hit really well when filling in for Hardy at shortstop last year. The Twins don’t have either Punto or Hardy this year, and Casilla’s 543 OPS is, sadly, pulling the average up at that position.

In left field, Young had a terrible start to the year, going from an 826 OPS to a 567 OPS at just 25 years old. And then he got hurt.

At second base, you wouldn’t necessarily expect Hudson’s departure to hurt the team too much offensively, considering how much time Michael Cuddyer has spent there. But NOBODY has hit well while playing second base – it’s been the second least productive spot on the team.

You might be surprised to see that designated hitter has been so dismal, given Jason Kubel’s hot start (916 OPS). But Kubel has only started there six games (and not hit when he has). Combine Thome’s semi-slow start (708 OPS) along with a general lack of depth due to injuries, and designated hitter has been the second biggest disappointment on the team.

But the biggest disappointment on the team is also the least productive spot – catcher. Last year, Mauer’s 905 OPS at the position offset the other catchers and raised the group’s OPS to 795. This year? Mauer struggled early, Steve Holm is hitting .118, and Drew Butera just .106.

Blink. Blink.

Suddenly, I’m kinda craving a catcher who only hits .320 without much power.

Whither Mauer?

Today, Joe Mauer should be coming off the DL. He’s not. We don’t know why. We don’t know why he went on the DL in the first place, because after 2 weeks, it seems unlikely that it was just the flu. We don’t know what the specialist in Baltimore told him. And we don’t know what needs to happen for him to return, or how long that will be. I’m starting to wonder if anyone in the Twins does know.

(Hmm. I feel a rant about the Twins organization’s ability to manage injuries coming on….

How many times have we had similar complaints or questions recently? Last year there was Neshek’s hand. Mauer’s heel. Hardy’s wrist. Wasn’t there some stuff with Hudson and Punto being out for a long time before going on the DL, too?

This year we wait a week for Morneau to come back only to find out his neck is sore? We wait another week to put Delmon Young on the DL when we know he has a rib injury? Cuddyer has a slow start because a wart wasn’t taken care of before spring training? Mauer tries to play through leg weakness by starting two consecutive night-day games in the first two weeks? Who the hell is managing this stuff? Dr. Leo Spaceman?

Eh. Doing that rant justice requires a little more research than I have in me tonight, so let’s get back to Mauer…)

A couple of weeks ago, I looked at Mauer’s 2010 season, and we found that he hit a lot better soon after he either was rested or was the designated hitter. Here were the numbers:


Tonight I wondered if the same thing could be said for 2009. It can’t:

In the handful of game where he played more than 3 days in a row in 2009, he had a couple of big games, so the trend isn’t nearly as clear. However, it does show a couple of other interesting points:

1) In his biggest year, 2009, Mauer was rested frequently.

Let’s go back to the phrase “handful of games.” Mauer never started more than six games in a row at catcher in 2009. The couple of times he did, he didn’t hit. In 2010, he had streaks of seven games and eight games, and one of these happened just before his end-of-year knee problems.

2) Despite missing all of April in 2009, Mauer still had MORE at-bats in 2009 than in 2010.

Why? Because he got an extra 30 AB at DH. In 2009, those were replaced with 7th and 8th game-in-a-row starts at catcher. Sure enough, in 2010 Mauer missed substantial time with injuries over two stretches, even though he was never put on the DL. But in 2009, even after missing the whole first month of the season, Mauer was able to stay healthier AND just as plugged into the lineup. And, of course, he also had his MVP season.

I don’t know what is going on with Mauer’s legs, and I wouldn’t be totally shocked to find out that the Twins don’t either. But once he comes back (knock, knock), the “treatment” seems to be the clear – manage his rest.

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Hey! Looks like I’m going to get to see Rene Tosoni’s first start today. Or at least I assume I will, since the Twins are facing a right-hander and Tosoni bats left-handed. (If you’re looking for more information on Tosoni, our guy Seth has it covered front-and-back.

As they finish up this series against an AL East opponent today, I’m wondering what the lineup will look like, because I think Tosoni has had a pretty good eye at the plate. Perhaps something like this?

Span CF
Tosoni LF
Kubel RF
Morneau 1B
Cuddyer 2B
Thome DH
Valencia 3B
Holm C
Casilla SS

That might be optimistic, considering Thome wasn’t available last night. Maybe Hughes at 2B, and Kubel/Cuddy/Morneau get a day at DH. We’ll see. I’m just excited to see Tosoni have his first big league game.

Sabrmetrics 101: Runs Created

How many runs is Joe Mauer worth?

When Bill James showed how runs could be cleanly converted to wins and losses (using the Pythaogrean Formula from last week), it opened up the door for studying the impact pitchers have on wins and losses. After all, we measure pitchers in runs - earned runs usually, but runs, nonetheless. It's fairly trivial to swap out one pitcher out for another, compare their ERAs, and estimate how many fewer runs one would give up versus another. Now that we can convert those runs to wins, it was easy to estimate the impact that would have on the team.

But how do you do the same for batters? Count their RBI? Their runs? Some average?

James studied the problem by backing away from it. Instead of looking at individual players, he looked at teams. Could you guess how many runs a team would produce given some of their other statistics? What he found shaped a generation of analysis. Just like predicting wins, it was a fairly simple formula - so simple that what was striking was what was NOT in it.

If you added up all the total bases for the Twins last year, you get 2347. (By total bases, I mean one base for each single, two for each double, three for each triple, and four for a home run.) Those bases were the result of 1521 hits. There were also 559 walks and 5568 at-bats. What James found is that with that info, he could estimate the total runs the Twins - or any other team –would score. You just do the following:

1. Add up the H and BB (essentially the number of times a team got on base).
2. Multiply that by the total bases that team had (essentially the power the team displayed).
3. Divide by the sum of AB plus BB (essentially the plate appearances the team had).

He called this value Runs Created. Go ahead and figure it out for the Twins. I’ll be over here playing Angry Birds.

The Twins actually scored 781 runs, sixteen runs less than what you just figured out using James’ formula, so it was off by about 2%. If you go through the whole American League last year, every team was within 10% of their Runs Created. Only four teams were not within 5%.

Now you have a way to measure runs for hitters, because players have these stats, too. And if a team of players can produce that many runs with those stats, it seems equitable to award each player with the stats for which they were responsible. So in 2010, if Joe Mauer tallied 239 total bases, 167 hits, 65 walks in 510 at-bats, one could figure out how many "runs created" he was worth:

(167 + 65) * 239 / (510 + 65).

(I won’t ruin the surprise, though I suppose someone in the comments could. Figure it out and you’ll see why sabremetric guys tend to like Joe Mauer a lot. ESPECIALLY if you take the time to figure out how many Runs Created Drew Butera is worth.)

The most striking thing about that formula is what it does NOT contain. No stolen bases. No clutch hitting. No bunting, no moving the runners over, no little things. It contained two things - getting on base and hitting for power. In fact, you could even rewrite the formula to include the two stats that MEASURE getting on-base and power:

On-Base Percentage * Slugging Percentage * At-bats

So where is that other stuff? It has to be somewhere right? Well, James revised his formula to add stolen bases, and then to add being hit by a pitch. And then others took the same idea and started adding additional factors to it, and this is where a good chunk of the alphabet soup that plagues sabremetrics came from. Each attempt was to get a little bit better at predicting a team’s total runs, and then apply that formula to individual players.

But it didn’t stop with just being more precise with more stats. The next step was comparing the impact of hitters to pitchers. Or hitters of one era (where power might be more plentiful) to another era (where speed or getting on base was more prevalent). Or trying to add defensive ability. Or major leaguers to minor leaguers. Or to include some defensive impact.

But these formulae almost all have Runs Created and Pythagorean Formula deep inside them as their engine:

1. On base times power equals runs.
2. Runs can be converted to wins.

For better or worse, these are two of the cornerstones upon which a good chunk of sabremetric study is built.

Darkest Before The Dawn

Talk about dark.

Yesterday, Francisco Liriano had his worst start of the young season statistically. In just five innings (actually, 5-plus), he gave up seven runs, all earned, and watched his ERA climb to 9.42. And yet, I think we watched a possible turning point.

In each his two previous starts, Liriano only gave up four hits – and yet he gave up four runs in each, too. He gave up that many runs because he also put eight additional guys on base with walks. Yesterday he only gave up one walk, but gave up eight hits in five innings.

Er, make that one inning. The eight hits became seven runs because so many were strung together. The Royals produced a six-run fourth inning that included six straight hits. Actually, let’s put “hits” in quotes…

1st AB – Melky Cabrera gets a ground ball through the left side of the infield.
2nd AB – Alex Gordon gets a ground ball over second base, just out of the reach of shortstop Matt Tolbert and second baseman Michael Cuddyer.
3rd AB – Billy Butler grounds a hit between third baseman Danny Valencia and Tolbert.
4th AB – Another ground ball up the middle that neither Cuddyer nor Tolbert can reach.

By now, the 1-0 lead has turned into a 2-1 deficit, we’ve seen four grounders become hits, and there still aren’t any outs. Nor will there be any time soon.

5th AB – Wilson Betemit – Hey, an actual line drive! A soft line drive, but a line drive.
6th AB – Mike Aviles doubles when (you guessed it) a ground ball goes past Danny Valencia down the third base line. Two more runs in.
7th AB – Matt Treanor grounds out to third baseman Danny Valencia.

At this point, a Bronx Cheer rose from the Target Field faithful. A fielder … FIELDING?!? That’s awesome!

8th AB – Alcides Escobar is sawed off - and ends up floating a soft blooper in front of right fielder Jason Kubel. At least it was in the air. Another run scores.
9th AB – Chris Getz hits a….well, you know. Cuddyer ranges and dives to field it, throws to first base, but pulls Justin Morneau off the bag. It is scored as a hit, driving in the sixth run. Getz is eventually picked off of first by Liriano.
10th AB – Liriano strikes out Melky Cabrera.

In case you didn’t have an abacus handy, that was eight hits and six runs, or just about all the damage that Liriano gave up. Liriano’s seventh “earned” run came after he had left, when reliever Glen Perkins gave up a double which scored the only batter Liriano had walked.

So while the box score was ugly (and watching it live was even uglier), it was a positive step forward in a lot of ways. This was the first outing where Liriano didn’t hurt himself.
It’s also worth noting that even with all those balls in play, Liriano still struck out four in five innings.

(One side note: It’s tempting to put the blame on the range of the infielders, but sitting down the first base line, I have trouble judging that. I’ll say this – there weren’t any obviously missed plays. But there were several times during the game that both the infielders and outfielders looked a step slow to me.)

But this felt like a bad luck game with an inordinate amount of bad luck. Change that to an exponentially inordinate amount of bad luck. I’m choosing to believe that the dawn has just about arrived.

True Thome Tater

The second that Jim Thome's home run hit somewhere in the center field concourse, the media corps' ears pricked, fingers poised and eyes gathered atop their sockets. They all waited for the same thing - the measurement.

The ears were waiting for the "official" announcement, which happens within a minute or so of a home run. The fingers were poised for the tweets, a new learned behavior. And the eyes waited to roll, a planned journey designed to convey disbelief.

It came as scheduled: 444 ft. The tweets went out, and we all turned to each other, eyeballs askance, sure we had witnessed an injustice. We wanted it to be greater than that. We wanted to be part of "greater than that."

This time, unlike so many others, I think we were. Home runs in ballparks should be a science, but are usually more of an art - and art is not immune to hyperbole. The 444 foot home run was announced to be the 5th longest home run at Target Field, all of which are hit by Jim Thome. The longest - the infamous "Labor Day flagpole" home run, was estimated at 480 feet (though I had trouble confirming if that was the "official" length.)

An important clarification is that nobody says that Labor Day blast traveled 480 feet. Home run distances are always estimated by how long the ball would have traveled if there had been no obstacle. That's where the "art" comes in.

But the site HitTracker.com attempts to use science to determine the ultimate length of those hits. Thome's blast from today isn't loaded yet, but that Labor Day blast came in at only 440 feet.

I'm here to tell you, yesterday's blast was longer than that. After the game, I went out to center field with Joel Anthony from Twins Guest Services. He saw where the ball landed. It found the gap between the decks out there and bounced off of the TV in the picture to the right.

That TV is just above the "State Fare" concessions in center field, the place The Boy insists on going for cheese curds (and where I apparently need to try their new ribs.) It is in the deepest part of the ballpark, above the batting eye.

The dimensions to that part of the ballpark are 403 feet. Then the ball needed to clear a small garden (which is where the pine trees used to reside). Joel and I estimated that garden to be 15-20 feet wide. Then we paced off the width of the concourse, from the batting eye to the TV. It was about 8 paces, or 24 feet. So the ball traveled about 443 feet horizontally.

But that still isn't the story - because it still hit a TV on the second deck.

How high is that above the playing field? The TV is approximately 5 feet higher than the batting eye. The batting eye extends down to the center field wall. It consists of panels that are about four feet wide, and there are 6 and a half of them. And the wall itself in center field is at least eight feet tall. Add that all up, and the ball was still about 40 feet above the ground when it hit the TV.

Major league estimators are supposed to multiply that vertical difference by a factor depending on whether it was a line drive, a normal fly, or a high fly. (Here's the formula.) Assuming this was a high fly, that factor is .6, which means the ball would have traveled an additional 24 feet. Which puts the length of that home run at 467 feet.

We'll see what HitTracker.com says, but it looks like the "eyes" had it. We saw something greater: a true Thome tater.

SABRMetrics 101: Predicting Wins

First, let’s show the magic trick. People love magic tricks.

The Twins scored 781 runs last year and gave up 671 runs. How many wins did they have?

OK, you probably know that they had 94 wins. Bad example. Let’s use Cleveland, instead. (Everyone else does.) The Indians scored 646 runs and gave up 752 runs. What was their record?

What Bill James showed in the 80s is that if you have a calculator, I’ve given you enough information for you to predict how many games a team won. He called his little trick the Pythagorean Formula, which is an incredibly unfortunate name, because Pythagoras has already coined that, but it stuck. We’ll walk through it using Cleveland’s numbers above.

1. Square the runs scored. (646 * 646 = 417,316)
2. Square the runs against (752 * 752 = 565,504)
3. Add those two numbers together. (417,316 + 565,504 = 982,820)
4. Divide the 1st number by the 3rd number (417,316/982,820 = .4246)
5. That is the team’s winning percentage. So just multiply that number by 162, or however many game the team played (.4246 * 162 = 68.7)

So the formula says the Tribe won 69 games, which is exactly as many as they won. If you do the same thing with the Twins number, you’ll see it predicts they won 93 games, one less than they won. And if you do it for all major league teams, you’ll see that it predicted sixteen teams records within two games. All but three teams are within 5 games of its prediction. It also accurately predicted all eight of the teams that made the playoffs.

Ta-DA! (Deep bow)

The basis of this formula is simple enough for anyone to understand: the more runs you score, and the less runs you give up, the more games you’re going to win. Nobody argues with that idea. But what was revolutionary was how precise it seemed. And how FUN is was. With a calculator (remember, this was the 80s) and an imagination, you could come up with all kinds of insights.

For instance, Nick Blackburn gave up 101 runs last year in 161 innings. What if we had a more average pitcher, who gave up just 75 runs? Just subtract those 25 runs from the Twins runs against, rerun the numbers and see how many more games the Twins might have won.

(I’ll let you go ahead and crunch that one yourself. It’s good practice. Have fun.)

It became a favorite plaything of anyone doing analysis on their favorite team. It became a powerful tool for insight. It became widely misunderstood. But most importantly…(hold it, this requires caps.)

MOST IMPORTANTLY, IT IMPLIED THAT IF YOU CAN STUDY RUNS, THEY CAN BE CONVERTED TO WINS.

Runs, it turns out, are a lot easier to study with baseball stats than wins. And that was especially true when James dropped his next bombshell. We’ll get to that next time.



If you’re going to any of the games this weekend, I’d highly recommend plunking down $1 for the Twins Official Scorecard. TwinsCentric writers and other independent bloggers will be providing the content for the Dugout Splinters, which is a preview of both teams within the Scorecard. For the A’s series, I’m writing the Twins side while Kyle Eliason (who has been a key contributor for years) looks at what the A’s are up to.

It’s easily the best bargain at Target Field, and you can buy it at any souvenir or program stand. You’ll love it.


Over at Seth Speaks, Seth reviews the prospect hounds’ choices for the minor league pitchers most likely to break out this upcoming season.

Tennis with Gardy

A tennis match broke out in the eighth inning of the Twins 4-3 win yesterday. Or at least I expect it did. It wasn’t one I could see, because it was in Ron Gardenhire’s head. Let’s see if we can get an instant replay….

The Twins were in a game that they wanted badly, leading by just one run in the eighth inning. It’s apparent how important this game was when the Twins brought in one of their closers in the seventh inning to protect the one-run lead.

The Twins half of the eighth inning started out well with a sawed-off infield single by Justin Morneau. Morneau, the designated hitter, was replaced with pinch runner Alexi Casilla. It was a logical move for a manager who wanted to get his big fella some rest and was working to coax a run around the bags, but it didn’t work out in two different ways.

The first way was that Michael Cuddyer immediately grounded into a double-play, so it didn’t matter who was on first base. The right-handed Cuddyer, by the way, was facing left-handed reliever Marc Rzepczynski, which was exactly the matchup the Twins wanted. But this is baseball, so Rzpeczynski gave up a hit (albeit incredibly weak) to the left-handed hitter he was supposed to get out (Morneau) and then got a double-play against the hitter who was supposed to have the advantage.

And just so the baseball gods got their trifecta, Rzepczynski then defied conventional logic for a third time by plunking left-handed Jason Kubel, putting him on base. (Kubel was then replaced for another pinch runner: Jason Repko.) The next two batters for the Twins were right-handed, so Rzepcynski was pulled for right-handed reliever Shawn Camp.

Once again, the matchup didn’t work the way it was supposed to. Danny Valenica lined a hit off of third baseman Edwin Encarnacion’s glove, and by the time it was chased down, Valencia was on second and Repko was on third.

Now the tennis match begins. Let’s watch the volleys.

Serve - If you were keeping score at home, Ron Gardenhire has an obvious move. On the mound is a right-handed pitcher. Coming up to bat is a right-handed hitter (Drew Butera) who is one of the weakest hitters in the American League. On the bench is a left-handed hitter (Joe Mauer) who is one of the best. Simple – make the move, right?

Volley - Ah, except that first base is open. So if Gardenhire brings in Mauer, Toronto will just walk him. And then the right-handed reliever will face the switch-hitting Matt Tolbert. So Gardenhire will have to play Mauer on his rest day and burn Mauer for a later pinch-hitting opportunity just to have a nearly equally anemic batter up. Obviously, you don’t make that move.

Return volley – But, hold it. Gardenhire has another card to play. Jim Thome, who happens to hit left-handed, is still on the bench, too. Why not have him hit for Tolbert? This is what he’s on the team for, right? And you can’t get a much more critical situation than a one-run lead with the bases loaded and two outs. It makes perfect sense to pinch-hit Mauer for Butera after all, while telling Jim Thome to get warmed up.

Volley – Ooh, except that now there is nobody on the bench to replace Thome after he pinch-hits. Remember I said that using Casilla for a pinch-runner didn’t work in two ways? This is the second. If Casilla was still on the bench, he could take the field at shortstop. Obviously, Thome can’t play shortstop. Never mind, maybe we don’t make that move.

Return volley – Hmmm, but Casilla IS available. It’s just that he’s now the designated hitter. The Twins could move him from DH to shortstop, and all it would mean is that the pitcher would need to then be in the lineup. The pitcher would replace Thome, which means he would be a full nine spots from hitting. Odds are, the game is going to be long over before we get to that spot. So Gardy actually can make the move, empty his bench, and get Mauer and Thome into exactly the spots he wants.

Volley Winner – Well, maybe not EXACTLY the spot. The Blue Jays still had a left-handed reliever, David Purcey, available. (I don’t know if he was warming up in the bullpen or not.) If he was available, then when Gardenhire played his last cards, Mauer would be walked and Thome would end up facing Purcey. Thome hit just .241 against lefties last year. In his career, Tolbert has hit .237 against right-handed pitchers. I doubt Gardy would quote you those numbers, but he knows the gyst of it – all those moves haven’t necessarily done his team much good.

How far into that logic did Gardy go? We don’t know. It might have stopped at Step 1, just because he really wanted to rest Mauer before the Yankees series. What we do know is that he didn’t make a move, Butera struck out, and the inning ended. It didn’t end up mattering. While the battle might have been lost, the war was won.

I just wish I knew how the tennis match ended.

Five Twins Predictions

Five random predictions for the 2010-2011 season, just cause I REALLY want to go to bed. I suspect you have your own – throw them in the comment section below.

1. A lot of outfielders are going to have really big years.

Delmon is turning 27. Span gets past last year’s sophomore slump. Cuddyer’s contract year adds a little “F U” to his attitude. And Kubel progresses to the “mean”, as in “not Mr. Nice Guy anymore.” There might be some problems with this offense, but it ain’t coming from those guys.

2. Neither Joe Nathan or Matt Capps is the closer for this team in September.

This will be the major source of rending of garments and gnashing of teeth. I don’t know who will be the closer in September, and he may not even be in the organization yet. But I think this is going to be THE topic of the summer. And I’m really, really, REALLY not looking forward to that.

3. Alexi Casilla is fine.

By fine, I mean he grades out slightly above average defensively and puts up an OPS around 700. Which will earn him lavish praise given how low our expectations are about shortstops.

4. Someone who is not in the starting rotation right now wins 10 games this year.

There are just too many arms – Kevin Slowey, Kyle Gibson, Glen Perkins and even Scott Diamond - waiting their turn. And, to be brutally honest, there aren’t any sure things in the starting rotation.

5. Twins win the AL Central.

I’m not sure how they win 90 games given prediction #2, but this still looks like a good team. The biggest question marks in my mind are:

a) Can they stay healthy? I think so. Health has been such a focal point this offseason, I think everyone is paying special attention to it. My biggest concern on that front is Joe Mauer.

b) Can the bullpen do the job? I think so. I like a lot of the guys that are going to be given middle inning jobs. And I trust the coaching staff to eventually solve the gaps that might develop at the end of games.

c) Can Tsuyoshi Nishioka replace Orlando Hudson? I think so. I’m mostly concerned about whether or not he can get on base batting from the second spot in the order. From what he’s shown this spring, I’m optimistic.

If those questions are answered correctly, this team isn’t much different than last year’s division winner. It may be a rocky start to the year, but Gardenhire’s teams seem to thrive once they have shed expectations. The Twins make another strong second-half charge and edge out the Tigers and White Sox.

Prepaid Price

Minnesota Twins announce RHP-Pat Neshek was placed on irrevocable waivers and claimed by the San Diego Padres.

Let's start with the big picture.

The Twins biggest concern this year is their bullpen. This was the case entering spring training and spring training has done little to alleviate that concern. While roster battles are being waged, and the Twins may be able to identify seven guys to take north, certainly no shut-down option has emerged.

And yesterday, the Twins lost Pat Neshek for nothing. Supporters will point out at Neshek hasn't been a shut-down option for three years. The truth is sadder than that. Neshek hadn't shown enough this spring to Twins brass to even be one of the seven guys to come north. So what is the harm in this move?

The harm is that Neshek isn't unique in his status. There are a lot of relievers in the Twins systems who aren't going to make the Opening Day roster, and the Twins didnt waive any of them. What's more, Neshek, unlike some other relievers, had "an option" left, meaning he could be sent to Rochester this year and recalled later in the year. So why give up an organizational asset (in an area where we KNOW there are so many question marks) for nothing? What was gained?

The glib answer is "40-man roster flexibility," which sounds great until you start to unpack it a bit. Yes, the Twins gained a spot on the 40-man roster - but Bill Smith admitted yesterday they don't know if they'll need it in two weeks or six months. What's more, that kind of move can be made at any time - like when a team actually NEEDS the spot. There isn't any advantage to having it early.

Its also been suggested that the Twins did this as a favor to Neshek. Sorry, no. If Neshek or the Twins or Neshek's agent found a team that wanted Neshek, and the Twins wanted to do him a favor, a trade for a player to be named later or cash would have been worked out. Leaving is to the whims of the waiver wire process isn't doing anyone a favor.

No, this move fits a different modus operandi of major league teams. Teams make moves like this earlier in spring training because they think it is less likely a player will be claimed now. Most teams are struggling with 25 and 40 man roster decisions at this time. The Twins gambled.

It almost paid off. If my understanding of the waiver claim order is correct, Neshek made it through 25 of 29 teams before he was claimed. But he WAS claimed. The Twins lost that bet.

Presumably, they made it because they anticipate needing that spot. Is that because they foresee adding Kyle Waldrop? Is a trade in the works? Do they expect another team to run out of room as Opening Day approaches?

I expect we'll find out sooner, rather than later. But we shouldn't pretend that future opportunity didn't come at a prepaid price.

Holy Communion

If you’ve looking for some baseball talk today – tough luck. Even the players don’t care about baseball today. They care about their brackets, their alma maters, and maybe some old friends that happen to be on national TV. But mostly they care, like us, about the drama and opportunity for magic that The Big Dance provides. Just like it did eight years ago, when this was initially penned…

Holy Communion

(from 3/21/2003)

For me, it started in Philly, where the Big Five can be close to religion. Philadelphians are a passionate lot (as Kobe well knows), and the five (now six) division 1A college teams inside the city limits can draw a fanatic following, whether they're playing each other in the old Palestra or the new MegaBank-of-the-Moment Center.

The first round of the NCAA has turned into a religious holiday for many, and this year my wife (The Voice of Reason), my friends and I are choosing to worship. We've arranged care for the kids with my parents for the day, who don't really understand our fascination with this event, so it means even more to us that they agree to help. The congregation is gathering at America's Original Sports Bar and the service lasts approximately 11 hours. What makes it communal is the nonsense that we spew at each other between the nail-biting finishes. What makes it holy are the miracles that we invariably witness.

• "HOOOoolyyyyy CROSS!", Bob exclaims as we walk in at 11:45. #14 Holy Cross is only 2 points behind #3 Marquette, 14-12. It's too soon to be a big deal, so Bob uses the joke while he can. I wonder how long he's been saving it.



• The first beer arrives at 11:55 AM. It's part of the tradition of the tournament - the first beer has to arrive before noon. There's something liberating about snubbing social norms. We feel free and a little giddy.



• Matt walks in the bar and pulls up a seat. He has a 7-day-old baby at home. He's our new hero.



• There are three early games and they're all on big screens - with a small TV in the corner alternating between Fox News and CNN. It's there to ease our guilt about ignoring the real world for 11 hours. We can glance over occasionally, and feel like we're still good citizens for reading the news ticker.



• It turns out that Bob's joke didn't need to be used that early. Holy Cross is playing their hearts out - well enough to be a Cinderella-Sweet-Sixteen-kinda team. Except that Marquette came to play, too.
  
  We watch two talented, focused teams play good solid basketball for the entire second half. Aggressive defense. Hard fouls. Precise, quick ball movement. And gutsy shooting. In the end, it's Marquette's Travis Diener who makes the biggest shots, and we're robbed of a big ending by a stumble and a steal that puts the game out of reach for Holy Cross.
  
  When the game ends, the bar breaks into applause. It may be the best basketball game we'll see played all day.



• Al and Bob are doing their best Norm and Cliff impression. They just don't know it.
  Bob: We concluded with Andy the other day that you might be able to induce diabetes if you ate 30 Krispy Kreme doughnuts.
  The Voice of Reason: Why 30? Why not an even 3 dozen?
  Al: I spotted him six.
  Bob: Yeah. Eating 30 Krispy Kremes is one thing. But 36 is just crazy.



• The highlight you're probably seeing replayed today is from the Cal-NC State game, made even more spectacular because is was announced by Kevin Harlan. With 12 second left in overtime, NC State hits a three to take the lead, but Cal answers by racing down the court and draining a three with 5 seconds left (by a freshman, no less). And then NC State races down to the other end and just misses answering themselves.
  
  The game itself was competitive, but sloppy on both sides, and marred by officiating blunders at the end of regulation. The consensus opinion is that we wanted that to be the ending of the Holy Cross/Marquette game.



• The Voice of Reason: If I give you this credit card, can we start a tab?
  Hot Waitress [taking card and walking away]: Sure, sweetheart.
  The Voice of Reason [stunned, to Matt]: I'm sorry - did she just call me "Sweetheart"?
  Long Pause
  Matt [meekly]: Can I watch?



• The Southern Illinois (#11) vs Missouri (#6) game had something like 20+ lead changes and we were apparently wrong about Holy Cross/Marquette being the best game of the day. Missouri's center, Arthur Johnson, carried his team to a five point lead, but somehow the Salukis came back and tied the score at 71 with Missouri still having the ball for a last shot.
  
  But the Missouri player accidentally charges into Saluki Jermaine Dearman with five seconds left - and the official blows the call. He rewards Missouri with a foul on Dearman, who fouls out. Irate, he walks back to the bench to find the rest of his team on the edge of their seats, with their arms linked. He slides into place, another link in the chain.
  
  Missouri only drains the second free throw, so Southern Illinois is down by just one point with 1.5 seconds left. They get a decent look, but the shot doesn't go in. Before the shooter can walk off the court, a Missouri opponent is shaking hands with him. Good game, indeed.



• On the corner TV, Fox News is talking about French President Jacque Shirac. We can tell this because they have a graphic behind the announcer with the word "Shirac" and a picture of Shirac which only a rival campaign manager would love. Honestly, he looks like he's yelling at someone for mispronouncing a wine.
  
  Leave it to Fox News to pull something like that. Why not go the full nine yards and just put up a picture of Pepe LePugh? Or Napolean?



• The biggest "almost" upset comes from (#15) Utah State, who battled (#2) Kansas for the entire game. They pull within 3 points with 46 seconds left, but Kansas outlasts their charge.



• A commercial for the movie "Anger Management" comes on.
  Al (dryly): That'll be funny.
  John(increduously): Adam Sandler and Jack Nicholson?
  Andy (dryer still): Finally, they're together. Finally.



• University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (#12) has traded punches with Notre Dame (#5) for 47 minutes. More accurately, they've traded punches with Notre Dame's guard, Chris Thomas, who is literally willing his team to compete. He is scoring, rebounding, and dishing the ball. This would be a 20 point blowout if not for him.
  
  UM-W wasn't even supposed to be here. They made the tournament when they upset Butler in their league championship game. They are lead by senior guard Clay Tucker, who leads the team in scoring, assists and is second in rebounds. And they find themselves up by a point, with under a minute to go, and they have the ball.
  
  Their shot balances on the rim, but falls out and the Irish get the ball back and score on a loose ball putback by Torris Francis with 35 seconds to go. The Irish lead 70-69, but UM-W doesn't call a timeout. Instead, Clay Tucker calmly dribbles the ball across half court and waits for the clock to run down. If they make it, the Irish (and Thomas) won't get another turn. And if they miss....
  
  With 8 seconds left, Tucker starts his drive to the lane, looking for the shot to ice it. Notre Dame's defense comes in waves; one too many waves it seems. Because rather than shoot, Tucker finds 6' 8" UW-M forward Dylan Page, by himself, under the basket. The pass is made and Page goes up above the rim and lays it in the cylinder.
  
  And it rolls around the back of the rim.
  
  And out.
  
  And the game is over. Irish win, 70-69.
  
  We watch Page walk numbly to his bench with his team and start shaking hands.
  We all know the feeling. It's an emptiness. A throbbing too intense to be fully realized. A failing that hurts oneself most because it hurts others more.
  We look at each other. We exhale and shake our heads. We give our hearts to a 21-year-old kid that we just noticed. We want it to be different. We want to heal it. We want to heal him.
  
  But we're reminded that religions don't provide miracles, they provide communion. This wasn't the miracle we wanted to see, but it's the communion we wanted to feel.

Box Score Surfing

What can you learn from spring training stories? Not much. A center fielder going 3 for 3 is likely as critical as the report about the relief pitcher who showed up “in the best shape of his life.” Or the story about the veteran showing the rookie “the ropes.” They’re nice stories that fulfill their primary purpose – convert blank white paper (or pixels) to something with ink on it. But most of us are beyond the point that we believe they provide any insight.

But there is a report that I do pay attention to, especially when the primary position battle is in the bullpen. It’s the box score, and particularly the pitching portion. I’m not so concerned about the results – it’s the order that is often telling.

Coaches want to see the guys they’re considering facing the best players on the other team so they can get a better idea how the player is really doing. For pitchers, this means that the order in which players enter a game often represents a ranking. It’s a vast oversimplification to say it’s quite that cut and dry, but generally, the sooner they get in, the better. So let’s take a quick look at the last six games of spring training and see if anything strikes me:

3/2 vs Pirates:
Duensing, Capps, Neshek, Dumatrait, D Hughes, Diamond, J Manship, A Burnett

And right away we have a question – who it Phil Dumatrait, and why was he getting the 1st spot after Capps and Neshek? Dumatrait is a left-hander who pitched in AAA for the Tigers and then ended up playing in Korea starting in May. He pitched again on Saturday, this time pitching the seventh inning, after Manship and before Waldrop.

I haven’t heard much about him as one of the left-handed options, and there isn’t much in last year’s AAA performance to single him out. But once upon a time, before Tommy John and a shoulder surgery, he was a first round pick with some velocity from the left side. Might be a name to remember.

3/3 vs Orioles
Pavano, Perkins, C James, Hoey, Swarzak

The one exception to the general rule about ranking is the ninth inning. Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson seem to like to play around with that a bit. I don’t know what it means that Anthony Swarzak got to finish this game. I find it interesting that southpaw Glen Perkins got an opportunity over lefty Chuck James. And I find it interesting that Hoey was relegated to the 8th inning.

3/4 vs Rays
Slowey, Mijares, Nathan, Hacker, Gibson, Bazardo, C Gutierrez

Here’s another name I didn’t expect to see. Eric Hacker is not a left-handed pitcher, but is on the 40-man roster, so by definition he has a leg up on a lot of pitchers in camp. He started last year in AAA for the Giants, and darn near earned a promotion. I had him tagged for AAA-Rochester as a starting pitcher, but maybe the coaching staff wanted to see what they had there for future reference. It didn’t go well, by the way – he gave up four hits in the inning and three earned runs.

3/5 vs Rays
Blackburn, Capps, Neshek, Manship, Dumatrait, Waldrop, Burnett

Huh. Manship lept over Dumatrait. Kyle Waldrop shows up for the first time, but way back in the 8th inning. And Alex Burnett closes out his second game. I wonder if Burnett, Swarzak and Carlos Gutierrez are being considered as Rochester’s closer.

3/6 vs Pirates
Duensing, Diamond, D Hughes, Hoey, C James, Swarzak

There’s Swarzak at the end again. Diamond made a significant leap over lefties Hughes and James. Diamond pitched in the 4th and 5th, so there is no doubt he was facing major leaguers. It sounds like the coaching staff wasn’t too pleased with his pace on the mound, and he gave up two hits and two walks in two innings, but he sure looks like he was considered the top lefty going into the game. Hoey moved up an inning, for what it’s worth.

3/7 vs Cardinals
Baker, Mijares, Nathan, Perkins, Hacker, C Gutierrez

Hacker got crushed again in this game, so that sucks for him. Perkins also struggled and that was after pitching significantly later in the game than his first time out. That’s not good. And like clockwork, Gutierrez came in and pitched the last two innings. He struck out four. It’ll be interesting to see if that three-man closing rotation carries through to tomorrow.

So what did I learn?
- Phil Dumatrait might be a name for left-handed specialist that I totally overlooked.
- Scott Diamond is also meriting some serious consideration, or at least was.
- I over looked Eric Hacker too, but he is likely slated for Rochester.
- James Hoey isn’t a serious candidate yet.
- I wonder if Jeff Manship might be a serious candidate.
- Something is going on with Burnett, Swarzak and Gutierrez.

Or at least that’s what I’m going with for now. Take a look at the box scores as they come in over the next week or so and see what you foresee.

Wrestling With Vegas

Here Is How You Define Expectations

Every year, millions, if not billions of dollars are bet by fans and analysts on their baseball teams. And while most of it is done on daily bets or World Series champions, there is another bet that I find infinitely more fascinating: the season over/under.

It’s fascinating in the same way that the price of a stock is fascinating. The number demonstrates an equilibrium determined by people who are risking their own money. The result truly represents what the expectations for that team really are. You want to know who is overrated or underrated? You want to claim someone over performed or under performed? Here is your baseline.

So let’s take a look at what gamblers say will happen in the American League this year, and throw out some gut reactions.

The AL East

Boston has become the clear favorite, and is supposed to be 6.5 games better than they were last year. Supporters will quickly point out how they acquired Adrian Gonzalez and signed Carl Crawford this offseason, but people forget that they lost Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre this winter, too. But Boston’s struggles last year were largely a result of just how banged up that team was. That number seems about right. Pass.

I'm supposed to believe the Yankees are going to fade 3.5 games just because they're a little older and Andy Pettitte retired? That's reasonable, except that

a) they scored enough runs to be a 98 win team and
b) some of their best hitters - Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodrigurez and Derek Jeter - all had pretty crummy years.

I don't think that happens again. I find it morally reprehensible to bet on the Yankees, but if I didn’t have a soul, I’d take the over.

Tampa Bay won 96 games last year and was good enough to win 98. And yet both Vegas and PECOTA (a statistically-based projection that BaseballProspectus.com uses) have them winning just 84 this year? They lost a lot this offseason, but they didn't lose that much. Over.

Baltimore only won 66 games last year, and they were actually worse than that. Vegas anticipates a 10 game jump, and PECOTA goes even higher than that, predicting a .500 record. I'd usually be all over that, especially in that division, except that I refuse to bet against Buck Showalter. Pass.

And that leaves Toronto at 76.5 games according to Vegas. Someone is going to get the snot knocked out of them in this division. I think it's going to be the Blue Jays. Under.

The AL West

Texas won 90 games last year and Vegas thinks they're going to be close but fall short of that this year. That seems conservative. They're still the class of this division, and that's worth more than 87 games. Over.

Oakland at 83.5. I'll be totally honest - I have no idea what Oakland has done this offseason. But I trust Billy Beane to tear apart this team if he thinks they'll fall short again, and there is no reason to think they won't fall short again. Under.

The fall from grace by the Angels last year really didn't get enough attention. They lost seventeen more games than the year before. They spent the offseason signing a couple of relievers and trading for Vernon Wells. This feels like an organization experiencing a death rattle. I don't see the 83 games that Vegas predicts, and neither does PECOTA, who predicts just 78 wins. Under.

Seattle, a 61-win team, was even worse than that last year. And this offseason, they....what did they do, exactly? They're supposed to win 70 games? Criminy. I don't see how they do it, but I'm not betting the under on three teams in the same division. Pass.

The AL Central

I've got bad news for all those who feel the Twins aren't getting enough respect - Vegas is still picking them to win the division, nosing past a three-horse race. I see it the same way, and while I like the Twins and White Sox a bit better than the gamblers, I wouldn't touch the totals of the Twins, White Sox or Tigers.

As for the others, I'm going to predict that they finally swap places in the standings. That means picking the over on KC and the under on CLE. My scientifically deduced reason: it just feels like the Tribe is a little rudderless right now.

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I want to thank Alex Halsted for mentioning me in his book 100 Things Twins Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. #98 is “Venture Online,” which you’ve already done if you’re reading this, but I hope you aren’t stopping with this blog. There are dozens of talented Twins bloggers that aren’t getting nearly enough attention and are worth your time. If you’re looking for a good launching point, I’d suggest stopping by MNGameDay.com, where there is a feed of the latest posts from across the Twins blogosphere.

Duensing's Just Deserts

A few weeks ago, I peeked back at Twins pitching stats. One name kept coming up, over and over:

But this analysis has really opened my eyes on the year [Brian] Duensing had. He was among the leaders in ERA, quality starts, eating innings and WHIP. For two years now we've seen what he can do for a half year in the rotation. I think it might be time to see what he can do for a full year.

Over those two years, Duensing has started 22 games and tallied 138.1 innings, which is about four months of work. The statistic that hopeful Twins fans will latch onto is his miniscule 2.93 ERA. Some of his other stats are more mediocre – 136 hits, 84 strikeouts, 37 walks and 12 home runs. Those are all about in the range of what you would expect for a slightly above-average starting pitcher, not an outstanding pitcher.

There is a statistic that can explain some of that paradox. It’s called BABIP, as in Batting Average on Balls In Play. Duensing’s was .284 as a starter, which is also above average, but suggests he was a little lucky – but did you really need me to tell you that? You’re talking about a guy without great stuff, who has a career ERA in the minors of 3.61. Do you think he’s a 2.93 ERA pitcher? We just overlooked a Pedro Martinez in our farm system?

Of course not. The question is – is he close to that?

To that we’ll go to yet one more statistic called FIP (for Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP is calculated ignoring those pesky batted ball, instead using several of those “slightly above average” stats to determine a number that looks like an ERA. According to the excellent site FanGraphs.com, Duensing’s was 3.91 last year as a starter. This is significant because FIP is a little bit better predictor of a future ERA than ERA is.

So no, he’s not Pedro Martinez, or even particularly close. But if Ron Gardenhire, who announced yesterday that Duensing already has secured a spot in the rotation, gets a 3.91 ERA for a full year out of the southpaw, he’ll need to up his dosage of cherry extract to handle the backflips he’ll be doing.

Not only do the statistics support Gardy’s decision, so does common sense. Gardenhire needs to manage this team and manage this pitching staff, and one thing that managers universally want to drive home to their team is that performance matters. For two years, Duensing has performed, posting quality start after quality start, as well as accepting whatever role the team needed. It’s entirely reasonable that he get his just deserts a little early this spring.

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Late addition: A friend pointed out to me that the initial version of this entry was incorrectly spelling the term "just deserts" as "just desserts." According to this wiktionary entry, "deserts" is the plural of "desert," which is "that which one deserves." Just a late note for you future writers out there....