Duensing's Just Deserts

A few weeks ago, I peeked back at Twins pitching stats. One name kept coming up, over and over:

But this analysis has really opened my eyes on the year [Brian] Duensing had. He was among the leaders in ERA, quality starts, eating innings and WHIP. For two years now we've seen what he can do for a half year in the rotation. I think it might be time to see what he can do for a full year.

Over those two years, Duensing has started 22 games and tallied 138.1 innings, which is about four months of work. The statistic that hopeful Twins fans will latch onto is his miniscule 2.93 ERA. Some of his other stats are more mediocre – 136 hits, 84 strikeouts, 37 walks and 12 home runs. Those are all about in the range of what you would expect for a slightly above-average starting pitcher, not an outstanding pitcher.

There is a statistic that can explain some of that paradox. It’s called BABIP, as in Batting Average on Balls In Play. Duensing’s was .284 as a starter, which is also above average, but suggests he was a little lucky – but did you really need me to tell you that? You’re talking about a guy without great stuff, who has a career ERA in the minors of 3.61. Do you think he’s a 2.93 ERA pitcher? We just overlooked a Pedro Martinez in our farm system?

Of course not. The question is – is he close to that?

To that we’ll go to yet one more statistic called FIP (for Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP is calculated ignoring those pesky batted ball, instead using several of those “slightly above average” stats to determine a number that looks like an ERA. According to the excellent site FanGraphs.com, Duensing’s was 3.91 last year as a starter. This is significant because FIP is a little bit better predictor of a future ERA than ERA is.

So no, he’s not Pedro Martinez, or even particularly close. But if Ron Gardenhire, who announced yesterday that Duensing already has secured a spot in the rotation, gets a 3.91 ERA for a full year out of the southpaw, he’ll need to up his dosage of cherry extract to handle the backflips he’ll be doing.

Not only do the statistics support Gardy’s decision, so does common sense. Gardenhire needs to manage this team and manage this pitching staff, and one thing that managers universally want to drive home to their team is that performance matters. For two years, Duensing has performed, posting quality start after quality start, as well as accepting whatever role the team needed. It’s entirely reasonable that he get his just deserts a little early this spring.

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Late addition: A friend pointed out to me that the initial version of this entry was incorrectly spelling the term "just deserts" as "just desserts." According to this wiktionary entry, "deserts" is the plural of "desert," which is "that which one deserves." Just a late note for you future writers out there....

The Prescription: Rest, Dammit

Let’s try and diffuse this Mauertov cocktail a bit. This mix of a beloved icon, incredibly high expectations and a demanding and underachieving position can become highly explosive when you add the catalyst of questionable health.

That’s because there is no shortage of opinions. There are those who want him to move to a different position, which they guarantee will resolve any health issues. There are those to whom the thought of moving him out from behind the plate is ridiculous, negating a substantial amount of his vaue. There is also the faction who questions his toughness, because they expect their superstars to play every day. And, of course, there are those who just love him and sideburns, and want to stuff a gallon of Kemps whole milk into all the Negative Nellys’ pie hole.

These are all fun, and make for great column fodder. But I’m not feeling especially rhetorical tonight, and besides, I’ve wanted to study something for a while. Last year, I kept noticing that Mauer seemed to hit his home runs after a day of rest. It also seemed that Mauer’s offensive surge in the second half of last year coincided with a lot more rest. And of course his 2009 MVP season started with a month or rest.

So let’s try and take the rhetoric out of this. I’m not going to try and judge his perceived toughness or softness, or whether he should want to play more, or should play a different position. What I want to know is: does Mauer hit better when he’s been recently rested?

First, let’s see if I was right about those home runs last year. Mauer hit just nine home runs last year, so let’s take a look at each one and see how close they came to a day where he wasn’t playing catcher:

#1. at LAA– It was only two days into the season, so just two days from an off day for the whole team.

#2. at NYY – Three days earlier he had a day off. He had actually had quite a bit of time off, because he had been hurt, but didn’t go on the DL, and then seemingly rushed back from injury for the Yankees series.

#3. at PHL – The big ninth inning home run versus the Phillies. The whole team had the day off two days earlier.

#4 at TOR – The Twins had an off day the day before.

#5 at BLT – The day before Mauer had been the designated hitter.

#6 at KC – The day before, Mauer had a day off.

#7 at CLE – The day before, the Twins had the day off.

#8 vs CWS – Mauer’s first home run in Target Field came two days after the team had a day off.

#9 at CWS – Two days before this, Mauer had been given the day off.

First, let’s state the obvious: Mauer struggled to get home runs at Target Field, which isn’t too surprising since many of his dingers in 2009 cleared the right field fence. That’s a considerable challenge at the new ballpark.

But it also suggests that maybe there is something to this rest thing. Four of his home runs came the day after he was rested. Four more came two days after a break. One came three days later and none came four days after a break. Incidentally, Mauer played 22 games last year where he had played catcher four days in a row or more.

That’s a fun anecdotal analysis, but let’s take it a step further. If we look at his overall batting line, did he hit considerably better after a little rest? Let’s see:


Oh, right – you don’t like numbers. Let’s turn it into something a bit simpler:

Last year, Mauer’s batting average went down the more days in a row he caught, and it REALLY affected his power. If we want to get into some treacherous small sample size territory, we can carry it further:

Apparently Mauer is REALLY good after catching seven days in a row! Actually, Mauer only started four games where he had been catching seven or eight games, and in one of those he went 4 of 7, thus the spike at the end. But the rest of the line seems to further support the thesis: Mauer is quite a bit better when he is frequently rested.

This isn’t proof. Anyone who wanted to poke holes in this analysis would start with the fact that these are fairly small sample sizes, none greater than 40 games. They’ll get no argument from me that this is a long way from proving that Mauer needs his rest.

Instead, let’s take is as directional evidence. Last year, Joe Mauer hit quite a bit better and for a lot more power when he was frequently given a break from playing catcher. Whatever your blustery opinion on how he should be used in the future, it might pay to try that strategy going forward.

The Afterthoughts

The box scores for these early spring training games can be longer than the story of the game itself. That’s because this is a chance for the coaching staff to get to know some of the “other” players in camp – the guys who have almost zero chance of seeing Opening Day in The Show. They’re the names that you squeezed in at the edge of your scorecard. The guys that confuse the announcers, with uniform numbers that approach triple digits. To most of us, they’re afterthoughts.

For now, that is. Because two years from now, the scribbles on your scorecard have a chance to be that key September call-up, or the crucial July injury replacement. (Heck, some will find themselves thrust into a rebuilding bullpen THIS year.) That’s the thing about following the Twins – these guys have a chance to matter.

That’s one reason why the Maple Street Press Twins Annual consistently has a section on the Twins farm system, including a minor league system overview. This year, Seth Stohs compiled the top five prospects in each of five areas: starting pitchers, relievers, catchers, infielders and outfielders. I'm going to rip him off, and take a look at the top prospects in four of those areas, so you’re primed for those later innings of these spring games.

Starting Pitchers
#1 – Kyle Gibson – Gibson is not only the top starting pitching prospect, he’s arguably the top prospect in the system AND the most likely to significantly impact the Twins major league club this year. He’s only been in the organization for one full year after being the Twins #1 draft pick in 2009. But he shot up through three minor league levels last year, ending up in AAA-Rochester. He fits the Twins starting pitching mold: he doesn’t have dominant stuff, but has very good control and induces a lot of ground balls. If members of the rotation struggle, he could take that last step and play a significant role after the All-Star break, ala Danny Valencia last year.

The Next Four: Liam Hendricks, Alex Wimmers, David Bromberg, Adrian Salcedo

Relievers
#1 – Carlos Gutierrez – In the Twins minors, he’s been a starter, but he could end up a dominant reliever. He’s got a 97 mph fastball that sinks, along with a slider and improving changeup. He spent most of the year in AA-New Britain, but the Twins haven’t been afraid to reach down that low for relievers in the past, as Jose Mijares and Alex Burnett attest. With the Twins bullpen in flux this year, don’t be surprised if he finds his way up to help out this year’s team.

The Next Four: Billy Bullock, Anthony Slama, Dakota Watts, Kyle Waldrop

Infielders
#1 – Miguel Sano – Unlike the other guys mentioned, he definitely WON’T play a roll this year, seeing as he’s just 17 years old. Sano was a highly sought after international signee that chose the Twins in 2009, and showed what he can do in 2010 when he hit .307/.379/.491 at lower levels. That likely means you won’t see him in spring training this year, but you’ll want to remember that name a few years from now.

The Next Four: Chris Parmalee, Trevor Plouffe, Steve Singleton, Brian Dozier

Outfielders
#1 – Aaron Hicks – Another possibility as the top prospect overall in the Twins system is Hicks, but he also won’t be making his acquaintance with The Show this year. He was a #1 pick by the Twins in 2008 and has speed, power, plate discipline and a great glove. The center fielder did well in low A-ball last year despite a tough start and will likely make it to High A ball this year. He’s one of two players (Ben Revere is the other) that Denard Span has identified as the next in line Twins centerfielder.

The Next Four: Joe Benson, Ben Revere, Oswaldo Arcia, Angel Morales

So check out some of the indented names on the box scores this spring. Yankees fans can ignore them, content to wait for hundreds of millions to be thrown at the gap in their roster. But Twins fans get to grow with their team. See what these guys have picked up while toiling for six years in minor league obscurity. And decide for yourself which ones might be your next favorite big league player.

You can pick up the Maple Street Press Twins Annual 2011 at newsstands in MN or order it early (or if you're out of town) at TCAnnual.com. And if you REALLy want to O.D. on the Twins minor leagues, check out Seth's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook for 2011.

Liriano Furor

So. Apparently, when I saw Joe C's story about "trading Francisco Liriano," I should have thought to myself "Maybe tomorrow isn't the best time to talk about veteran middle infielders."

In case you missed it, Joe Christensen posted a story Wednesday night saying basically two things:
1) The Twins are not interested in signing Liriano to a long-term deal and
2) similarly, the Twins don't consider him untouchable, so we all have his permission to talk about trading him.

And so we did.

But we missed the bombshell here. It isn't that Liriano is on his way out the door. There is nothing in the story that implies anything is at all close, or that the Twins have even attempted to have trade talks with teams. The bombshell is that the Twins, right now, don't value Liriano nearly as high we thought they did (and probably should).

One area that is being misreported is that the Twins turned down a 3-year/$39 million offer from Liriano's agent. That isn't what Christensen reported. What he said was: "From what I've heard, their long-term talks went nowhere, with Liriano's camp hinting it wanted a three-year, $39 million contract."

What's significant about this is that a 3-year/$39M extension is exactly the range where negotiations should have started from Liriano's side. Seth Stohs did a fantastic job of breaking down what a long-term extension for Liriano might look like in this year's GM's Handbook. He noted that two similar deals, by two similar pitchers with similar service time were recently signed. That provides a hell of a template:

If you add up the 8/14/14 for 2012-14 for Liriano, you get $36M, or about $1M less per year than Liriano's camp hinted at. If that figure was a non-starter for the Twins, then they just don't have any interest in signing Liriano long-term, because it's awfully close to his market value.

Now, maybe that changes. Maybe they just want to see more than one full-year out of Frankie, and I wouldn't blame them too much for that. But Christensen's primary point is very clear - right now Liriano is not considered an integral part of the Twins long-term future.

Finding The Right Puzzle Piece

There isn’t much doubt that the 2011 Twins team is still missing some pieces. The trick is finding pieces that fit.

Take middle infield. Nick wrote yesterday about how the Twins could use some additional depth, and that’s undoubtedly true. I’m excited to see if Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka can become as good as we hope, and like Seth, I’m not anxious to block either of them so I can overpay Michael Young. But a safety net is in order, and there are some good ones – including one I can’t believe we haven’t heard more about.

The most mentioned name, both locally and nationally, seems to be Orlando Cabrera. In many ways, he’s a perfect fit – veteran, winning track record, and he had a very positive impact while here less than two years ago. The problem? He wants to start. Unless he changes his mind, that’s a deal-breaker for either side.

And even if Cabrera says it’s OK to not start, it isn’t clear the Twins would really trust him to maintain that stance. Let’s not forget that the year before he was with the Twins, Cabrera was criticized for being a negative clubhouse presence by the White Sox. Even if he says otherwise, it’s not clear that he’s ready to go gently into that good night.

Another popular name is David Eckstein. Eckstein is 36 years old, hit .267 last year, got on-base at a below-average .321 clip, and has zero power. However, he’s decent defensively (though he played exclusively at second base the last two years) and known for his scrappy, veteran hustle. He’s basically an older Nick Punto – including his fun-sized height. He’s exactly the kind of player that Ron Gardenhire is likely lobbying to add to the team.

Which is EXACTLY why I can’t believe the Twins would sign him. You don’t give a coke addict a vial of crack to store in the closet, and you don’t give Ron Gardenhire a veteran, scrappy, defensive-oriented shortstop to sit on the bench. Gardy will be able to add this to the list of non-moves he can be bitter about.

How about Julio Lugo? The 35-year-old has always been a defensive specialist, which is the kindest term for a guy who can’t hit. That’s a tad overly harsh, considering he hit quite well with both Boston and the Cardinals in 2009. But last year with the Orioles he was dismal, hitting .249 with a sub-.300 OBP while filling various injuries.

But so what if he didn’t hit much? He’s a decent fielder, and he’s not exactly ancient. If he’s not a clubhouse problem, he could be a good overall fit whose hitting will just make him more affordable.

And finally, we get to the name I can’t believe is still out there. He’s played both shortstop and second base recently. He’s only 32 years old. He made $8M last year. He was traded at the deadline, at which point he had a .282/.327/.361 line. And most of all – he’s an ex-Twin All-Star.

I’m talking, of course, about Cristian Guzman, who still hasn’t signed with anyone. He’s absolutely going to need to sign with someone as a utility player if he wants any chance to regain his starter status. The biggest problem might be that his defense has slipped from his time with the Twins, but it’s still not awful. I’m shocked that we aren’t hearing more about him considering the limited options the Twins have in-house.

By most accounts, the Twins have stretched themselves pretty thin with payroll this year, so they might not have much to spend. And let’s not forget that Delmon Young’s arbitration case has not been decided yet, and there’s a $1.6M range between what he’s asking and the Twins are offering. But if the Twins do find some money underneath some couch cushions, there is no doubt the middle infield should be the priority. We’ll see which of these guys they think will be the best fitting puzzle piece.

One week from today, pitchers and catchers begin their first workout AND the 2011 Maple Street Press Twins Annual ships, hopefully to you. There’s a good chance you’ll have it before Jim Thome has a bat in his hands.

At first, it looks like a 128-page magazine previewing the baseball season. But unlike anything else you’re buying, it isn’t half ads. In fact, it doesn’t have any ads. It also isn’t a preview of every team in the league. It’s JUST the Twins. It is like nothing else you have ever read in its breadth and depth of coverage of your favorite team.

That’s one reason I’m so proud of it. Nobody else dares risk something like this. This is our chance to show that a product like this, created for Twins fanatics, can work. Needless to say, if you’ve been stopping by this blog all offseason, this magazine is your payoff.

And like this blog, it’s a product of TwinsCentric. Nick, Parker, Seth and I helped arrange and edit its 19 feature-length stories and player profiles. But unlike our other products, this is old-school: a collectible with paper and great pictures, available on your magazine rack in March.

But who wants to wait until March? Not you. All offseason you’ve been talking about how winter can’t end soon enough. Here’s a chance to put your money where your mouth is. Enjoy your early spring.

You can find out a LOT more about it here.

Get To Know: The Third Basemen

"[Corey] Koskie is a middle-of-the-order presence whose experience and discipline is especially valuable in October. Losing Koskie will be the biggest free agent loss of a Twins player since Jack Morris. It isn't something this organization is going to just shake off.”

- from “Losing Koskie” at TwinsGeek.com, 12/10/2004

It took six years for the Twins to “shake off” losing Corey Koskie. They may have, finally, last year when Danny Valencia was promoted from Rochester and provided Koskie-esque production from the other side of the plate. If he can do it again this year – not a small “if” – and next year, and next year, the Twins will have finally found their replacement.

And it took six years for a very good reason – because good third basemen are hard to come by. I was reminded of that as I was researching the third basemen in the American League. There is a huge range, so the good ones become very, very expensive in what is always a seller’s market. Let’s take a look at them and see where Danny Valencia fits in.

NO QUESTIONS

Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox

31 years old, 975 OPS in 2010

This is the guy fans want. Power, patience, and epic facial hair. Remember when there were concerns about him taking too many walks in the minors? Good lord, how stupid was that?

Evan Longoria - Rays

25 years old, 879 OPS in 2010

This is the guy the GM wants. He doesn’t have the stats of several other guys on this list, but he’s also just 25 and signed to an extremely team-friendly contract that might run all the way through the 21^st century. I wish I was kidding.

FANTASTIC! (BUT….)

Alex Rodriguez - Yankees

35 years old, 847 OPS in 2010

Why isn’t he in the above group? Partly because he’s the oldest guy on this list. (Which is saying something. This is an elderly group.) Partly because he had a bad year that could be a sign of things to come. But mostly because I’m a bitter, petty man, and I love to tear down Yankees.

Adrian Beltre - Rangers

31 years old, 919 OPS in 2010

If you include defense, Beltre might be the best guy on this list. He was certainly paid like that this winter when he landed a 5-year contract for $80 million – and that was after seemingly everyone thought he had overplayed his hand. See what I mean about how it’s a seller’s market?

The question about him? The last time he signed a deal like this, his OPS fell 300 points.

Jose Bautista - Blue Jays

0 years old, 995 OPS in 2010

Here’s the king of this group: 54 home runs, but it came out of nowhere. Forget the question about whether or not he’s discovered some magic elixir for these superhuman feats. The real question is: however he did it, can he do it again? Because THIS time it’s a contract year.

HE IS WHAT HE IS

Chone Figgins - Mariners

33 years old, 646 OPS in 2010

Figgins had the lowest OPS of anyone on this list AND he’s the third oldest on the list, too. That’s not a good combination. What is a good combination is:

a) he was still able to get on base last year (.340 OBP) despite his terrible batting average (.259) and

b) he stole 42 bases for the second year in a row.

Brandon Inge - Tigers

33 years old, 718 OPS in 2010

Good fielder, occasionally very good power, and has never hit for average. Brandon Inge is a switch-hitting Joe Crede, except he stays a lot healthier. He represents the middle of this list, his glove raising his below-average offense. He just signed a two-year deal with the Tigers this offseason that is partly justifiable given what else is available, but he isn’t likely to be better than he has been.

GOOD KIND OF MYSTERY

Mark Reynolds - Orioles

27 years old, 753 OPS in 2010

Reynolds was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Orioles this winter after hitting .195 with 223 K last year. However, he also hit 32 home runs. He’s still young, he was battling injuries, he’s just a year away from his breakthrough 2009 (44 HR, .260 BA) and it looks like he was a little unlucky getting hits to fall last year. He’s no sure thing, but there’s more good than bad.

Mike Aviles - Royals

29 years old, 748 OPS in 2010

Aviles has probably overachieved for the last two years, but he shows a nice combination of power and speed that a lot of teams below would envy. More of a utility infielder type, he will likely start the year as the Royals third baseman, but he likely won’t finish it because of…

Mike Moustakas- Royals

22 years old, 878 OPS (in AAA-Omaha) in 2010

He’s the next big thing for the Royals, and has been since Alex Gordon flamed out. Last year he absolutely torched Double-A (1100 OPS in 259 AB) and didn’t back down in AAA. There is no way the budget-conscious Royals promote him to the majors before June so he doesn’t get a jump on gaining Super-2 arbitration status, but after that they’ll want to see if he can be a cornerstone for the latest rebuilding effort.

Brent Morel - White Sox

23 years old, 851 OPS (in AAA-Charlotte) in 2010

He’ll need to beat out Mark Teahan for the job, but that should happen after the first dozen groundballs. Morel is also a bit of a surprise – a guy who has worked his way into prospect status by exceeding expectations the last couple years. He’s got to do the same thing at this level.

BAD KIND OF MYSTERY

Jayson Nix - Indians

28 years old, 705 OPS in 2010 with Cleveland

Cleveland got him off of waivers last year, which should be damning enough. But he is just 28 years old, and he has 20 home run potential. He goes into this group for now, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him join his AL Central peers in a higher group next year.

UGH.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Athletics

29 years old, 679 OPS in 2010

Last year about this time I was being asked over and over if the Twins should try and trade for Kouzmanoff. I sure hope I said “no.”

Maicer Izturis - Angels

30 years old, 684 OPS in 2010

I really respected how the Angels were negotiating with Adrian Beltre this winter – right up to the moment that he signed with their division rival. You can see right here why he would have been such a great fit. Almost the whole AL West was a disaster at the hot corner last year, with the exception of the Rangers Michael Young – and THEY were the team that signed Beltre? Crazy.

OUR GUY

Danny Valencia - Twins

26 years old, 799 OPS in 2010

Valencia has always been a bit old for a prospect, but he’s the fourth youngest on this list. He had a very good year, and his OPS ranked sixth, behind the five studs at the top of this list. I’d definitely put him in the “Good Kind of Mystery” group, along with almost all of the rest of the AL Central.

That said, I don’t think we should overlook the “mystery” for the “good.” Valencia hit very well in the majors – quite a bit better than he did in Rochester. His high rate stats were driven by his .311 batting average, but the last time he hit that well in the minors was High A ball.

Which isn’t to downplay his contribution. The Twins have been looking for their new Koskie for six years before Valencia came. He’s exceedingly valuable for the Twins. And he’s exceedingly valuable for the league, after you look at the other options.

Six For Five

Six starting pitchers are showing up in training camp this year, and five will leave. I'm excited about the possibility of a little competition, partly because I'd like to see what Slowey can do when he needs to find a way to work with his catcher. Or how Baker reacts when he faces the possibility of being dropped from the rotation if he doesn't stay healthy through spring training.

It's been a while since I gave a lot of thought to last year's performance of the members of the starting rotation. So as a way of reintroducing myself to each of them, let's take a quick look at how each of them ranked in terms of some statistics. I'm really focusing on the four guys, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing, who are fighting for three spots.

ERA

Brian Duensing wins this one with a 3.05 ERA as a starter, better than anyone else, including Francisco Liriano(3.62) and Carl Pavano(3.75). Baker(4.49) and Slowey(4.54) are about even, and Blackburn(5.30) was quite a way behind them.

Quality Starts

I don't think I'm going to find a lot of areas where Blackburn isn't in last place, but I find it interesting that he led the "other four" pitchers in quality starts last year with 14. Baker had 12, and Slowey had nine. You could also award this category to Duensing, who had nine quality starts in just 13 starts, the highest percentage of quality starts on the staff.

Strikeouts

Other than Liriano, Baker easily wins this category. He was second on the team in strikeouts(148) overall and in terms of strikeout rate(7.48). Slowey(6.78) is third in rate, Duensing(5.36) was fourth, Pavano(4.76) fifth, and Blackburn(3.76) last.

Eating Innings

Pavano was, by far(221 IP, 32 starts), the leader in this category. Liriano finished second in overall innings, but was actually third in innings per start (6.19 IP per start) behind Duensing(6.54). Blackburn ranked just below Liriano in innings per start (6.08). I'm surprised to find Slowey (5.95) ahead of Baker (5.86).

xFIP

Oh, hell, let's throw one in for the sabrites out there. xFIP is something that looks like ERA but is derived from a pitcher's strikeouts, walks, and fly ball percentage. It is valuable because it is a better predictor of a starting pitcher's ERA than their ERA the previous year.

Liriano (3.06) and Pavano (4.01) led the team last year, but Baker (4.02) was a very close third. Duensing was also very close to those three with 4.10. Slowey (4.48) and Blackburn (4.62) were quite a bit behind the rest.

WHIP (Walks + Hits/Innings Pitched)

How good is each pitcher at keeping players off the base paths? Pavano was by far the best (1.19) but Liriano (1.26) just missed out on second place. That honor belongs to Duensing (1.25) who is putting together a pretty solid argument for being the third strongest pitcher on this staff by this point. Slowey (1.31) and Baker (1.34) are not too far behind. Blackburn (1.44) is again in last place.

Conclusion

Baker's got "the stuff", with Slowey a close second. Blackburn had some terrible stretches last year, but showed that even when he is terrible, he can eat innings and provide quality starts. But this analysis has really opened my eyes on the year Duensing had. He was among the leaders in ERA, quality starts, eating innings and WHIP. For two years now we've seen what he can do for a half year in the rotation. I think it might be time to see what he can do for a full year.

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Seth's Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook 2011 is now available online. To order today, click here.

Diamond Awards

The Diamond Awards were held last night, which is a banquet where the Twins present awards from the previous season. It is also a fundraiser for the University of Minnesota Medical Foundation, specifically research surrounding muscular dystrophy, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease, and ALS. If you would like to see more about last night’s festivities, you can check out their website.

The Voice of Reason™ and I had a great time, but we’re also seriously exhausted. Middle age stinks. So here are just a few quick notes.

- Kyle Gibson seems like about the most humble, coachable guy in the world. When asked by Dick Bremer what he needed to do to go from AAA to the Majors this year, he admitted that he had no idea, but he was really hoping the coaching staff would let him know, and he would work on it. Good plan, that.

- When Joe Benson came on stage, TVOR’s eyes popped out of her sockets like a cartoon character. “Oh, MY. (pause.) HE’S handsome.”

All right. Note to self. Don’t introduce wife to Joe Benson.

- Jesse Crain was on hand to accept an award for outstanding community service. Yes, the same guy who had no real pressure to be there because he has signed with the White Sox. I can’t say enough about how much class he showed, and it was clear just how much he was going to miss the Twins. It was touching, plain and simple.

- Seriously, these are some terrible, terrible diseases. I’ve seen first hand just how devastating they can be to a family. Give a little thought to supporting neuroscience research at the U of M. You can find out more about what they’re doing here.

- The introductions to many of the award recipients were often done by baseball writers. The best? It was Jim Souhan, who was head and shoulders above the rest. Absolutely full of one-liners. If I ever need to have someone host a roast, it’s him (provided it’s not my roast).

- Michael Cuddyer won a couple of awards, which The Voice of Reason was excited about, because he is her favorite Twin. Which prompted this response:

TG: So, is it safe to say that Cuddyer can’t leave the team until Joe Benson arrives?

TVOR: No, it’s not the same thing. It’s “cute & dimples” versus “Oh, my GOD!”

Glad we got that clarified.

- It appears the nickname that Gardy is going to go with for Tsuyoshi Nishioka is “Nishy.” I had thought maybe Yoshi, so I would be disappointed, but this allows me to spell it “Nietzsche.”

(Honestly Bat Girl, it’s like Gardy is baiting you to come back.)

- Gardy really seemed legitimately upset to see so many of his players leave, mostly because he felt so close to them. He went out of his way to make us understand that he feels like they are his kids, and he really missed them.

- If Bill Smith was trying to make Twins Territory even more nervous about a return by Justin Morneau, he did a heck of a job. He went out of his way to point out that their goal was to have Morneau ready to return by April 1^st. He even guarded us against expecting him to come back when players report to spring training. So I think it’s pretty safe to say he’s not yet 100%.

- Danny Valencia: “I couldn’t envision my rookie year going any better than it did.”

We feel the same way, Danny. Now get ready for a roller-coaster of a sophomore year.

- Which Twins player had the best one-liners of the night? You won’t guess. Go ahead. List your top five. List your top 10.

Answer: Delmon Young. I might be more encouraged by that than I was about him losing 30 lbs.

- Good lord but Jim Thome is a big ball of positive energy.

- The only award recipient who didn’t attend was Carl Pavano, who instead filmed an incredibly awkward video from Florida. I wonder how that absence would have been received by Twins fans if it was Young. Or how it would have been received by Yankees fans if it was Pavano.

- Pat Borzi of MinnPost.com introduced Joe Mauer by reminding us that he could have been signed by the Yankees this past offseason.

- Michael Cuddyer, in accepting his leadership award, gave a shout out to his wife and all baseball men’s wives for all that they do, their versatility and leadership. At which point TVOR told me that she was counting me as a baseball man and was happy that Cuddy had noticed all she did. And do you know what I said?

“I couldn’t agree more.”

Incidentally, I'm coming up on my 17th anniversary.

- Bert got his lifetime achievement award, and afterwards the Twins announced that they were retiring his number, #28, as a send off to his Hall of Fame induction ceremony.

- And finally, before the ceremony ended, Rod Carew basically walked up to the podium unannounced, and asked that we all think about sending Harmon Killebrew our best wishes. I agree with Sir Rodney. You can leave him your thoughts and comments here.

Crystal Ball

What Does Twins 2012 Payroll Look Like?

I’ve been asked several times in the last few weeks what the Twins payroll situation looks like for 2012, a year into the future. Unfortunately, that speculation is a combination of back-of-the-napkin figuring and crystal ball gazing that could be viewed as irresponsible on a major newspaper site.

Good thing I’m a blogger.

So, let’s assume some things:

1. Both Franscisco Liriano and Delmon Young continue to perform at a high enough level such that the Twins offer them arbitration.
2. Justin Morneau doesn’t need to be replaced (and his contract doesn’t need to be paid by insurance).
3. Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka play well enough that the Twins want them to be the starting infielders next year.
4. The Twins don’t add any higher-priced veteran relievers for next year, and find enough arms in their system to stock the bullpen.
5. Kevin Slowey starts this year and does well enough that he’s offered arbitration again next year.

If all that is true, the (very approximate) salaries of 2012's team is over there on the right.

Which leads to a couple of observations:

1. My best guess on payroll next year is around $130M. If you want to argue about it, that’s what the comments are for. But the jump this year was from $96M to $113M, and $130M seems about right to me.
2. If that’s true, the Twins have 3 big roles to fill (RF, DH, Closer) and $33M to fill them. That’s a much better situation than they had this offseason.
3. If one of the starters is traded and Brian Duensing (or Kyle Gibson) takes his place, that’s even more money available.
4. You’ll notice I didn’t pen in either Capps or Nathan as a closer. I’m quite sure that if either is successful this year, they’ll cost about $10M. So if you want to put one in there, just do a little adding and subtracting yourself.
5. Finally, there’s a lot of big “ifs.” For instance, if Casilla ends up being relegated back to utility infielder, then the Twins might save a couple of million dollars on his salary, but now they have four positions to fill on $33M. That’s not nearly so enticing.

If you would like to talk more payroll or other Twins stuff, I’ll be at two different events over the next two nights, so flag me down. Tonight I’ll be at the Diamond Awards, and Friday night I’ll be at the Hot Stove League banquet with (I think) a few other TwinsCentric guys. I got the following note from the organizer of the Hot Stove Banquet yesterday:

“Juan Berenguer has been added to the line-up for Ballpark Tours 3rd Annual Last Hot Stove League Banquet & Charity Auction scheduled for this Friday Jan 28th at Carpenter’s Hall 710 Olive Street in St. Paul.

Senor Smoke will join Jim Kaat at the podium as our keynoters. In addition, local author Pete Schilling will chat about the art of heckling & a couple of media usual suspects (not sure who yet) will take part in our Q & A.

The focus of the event is to raise money for the Dunning Little League baseball program & this anti-dome crowd will be able to bid on an auction item sure to ‘bring down the roof!!!!’ The Ballpark Tours gang has raised over $50,000 for the fields at Dunning over the years.”

This is easily the best week and weekend of the long offseason. If you’re a Twins fan, make sure you make the most of it.

A Contract Worth Waiting For

So how soon after he signed this 2-year/$16.5 million deal did Carl Pavano fire his agent, Tom O'Connell? Was it a full minute? Or did he throw the crumpled contract in his face as soon as it was signed? None of this has been reported yet, but it had to happen, right?

Don’t get me wrong, I think Pavano is excited to be back. He sure sound genuinely excited, and there have been several reports saying he expressed his desire privately to stay with the Twins from the very beginning. He’s not in a bad place, and clearly likes the situation. I’m happy for him.

But there’s a reason he didn’t sign this same deal back in September or October. It’s because Pavano, who was viewed as possibly the second best free agent starting pitcher on the market, just signed a deal that was worth somewhere between half and three-quarter of his market value.

(That last sentence is not debatable. For instance, Ted Lilly signed for $33M guaranteed over three years. Jorge De La Rosas signed for two years and $21.5M. Hiroki Kuroda gained $12M for one year. Pavano was in their class, if not above.)

Pavano can blame a good chunk of that lost money on the collective bargaining agreement. That’s what allowed the Twins to offer Pavano, a Type A free agent, arbitration. Since he turned it down, it was going to cost every other MLB team a high draft pick to sign him. That severely restricted his potential suitors.

But the Twins had to take a risk to put that loadstone around Pavano’s neck, and his agent didn’t make them pay. By offering Pavano arbitration, they essentially offered him a 1-year/$11 million contract, because that’s how much he would’ve made in arbitration. When Pavano turned that down two months ago, the Twins breathed a sign of relief as it was pulled off the table.

So instead, a month later, he and his agent were without that offer as leverage, and seemingly without any other serious suitors. Thus, the Twins new offer was for twice as long, but at only 1.5 times the price. The Twins essentially got a “buy one year, get the second at 50% off” deal with this signing.

I’m sure Pavano and his agent will put a happy face on the deal, and nobody is going to be unhappy with a guaranteed $16.5M in his pocket. But there is no question – none – that if they had to do it again, they would have accepted that arbitration offer in November. The extra $5.5M now in hand is nowhere near the money that was available in that bush.

(This signing also further strains the credibility of those who might claim that the Twins paid $7M to Capps just so they didn’t need to sign a multi-year deal. By that logic, the Twins would’ve been happier signing Pavano to the same 1-year/$11M contract they essentially offered him in arbitration. We can safely assume that wasn’t on the table.)

The Twins played this exactly right, and deserved the luck that they got. What’s more, the pitching staff suddenly has an abundance of riches - unless this deal leads to some payroll cutting in which they trade away one of their other starting pitchers. It’s not impossible. There have been rumors going back to the winter meetings that the Twins might shop a starter to other teams if they acquire Pavano. Furthermore, the Twins not only have six pitchers for 2011 – they have the same six pitchers under their control for 2012, too. (And don’t forget Kyle Gibson waiting in AAA.)

If the Twins can’t afford it, we’ll likely hear of another trade. But if they can – and the bargain they just got helps - it’s a nice problem to have. Plus, if a move isn’t made this winter, it’ll be a fun topic to talk about as the trade deadline approaches.

My Favorite Things

Let's Think of Spring and Our Favorite Things

For those of you not in Minnesota, we’re in one of THOSE winters. Since Thanksgiving, I think we’ve reached freezing twice. We’ve been bombarded by record-setting snowfalls. And we’re in the midst of a cold spell (read: not even close to freezing) that is a couple of weeks old with no relief in sight on the 10-day forecast. The word that comes to my mind most often is “oppressive.”

So one starts looking to the future, no matter how far ahead it might be. The only silver lining to this winter is that when spring finally comes (and it’s going to come late, no doubt), there is going to be a shared euphoria that absolutely intoxicating. This state is going to explode like the blooms on the trees.

That’s where my head is tonight – with spring and grass and sun and the marvelous downtown area where I plan to spend a LOT of time this summer. In short, it’s with some of my favorite things that I’m starting to associate with a Twins baseball game.

Food
Let’s start with food, because I’m hungry. And because it’s cold, I’m going to start with…

Comfort Food - Glueks
Check that - let's make that "Comfort Everything." The space is fairly comfortable, seeing as it's practically a Minneapolis institution. The Gluek’s building has been around since 1903 and was completely restored after a fire in 1989. I've also found the crowds pre and post game to be very reasonable considering its prime location.

But what I really get excited about is the food. Their mac n cheese is made with German spaetzle instead of noodles, giving an extra kick of density and satisfaction. The Voice of Reason™ swears by their open-faced turkey sandwich which is also the blue plate special on Wednesdays. Lately, I've been most enamored with The Berliner, an open-faced sandwich of their pot roast. Welcome home.

Burger - Ike’s
I'm sure I'll catch hell about this because burger people each have their favorites, but I'll take Ike's version over everything else around Target Field. It’s the right size, has just the right level of greasiness and comes with a cart of condiments that lets you experiment a bit.

Meat Fest - Fogo de Chao
This brazilian steakhouse is two blocks from Target Field and will serve you enough fresh grilled meat to choke a starving lion. They just keep coming to your table with 14 different types of skewers and give you whatever you're hungry for. It's expensive, but it's a heck of a lot cheaper than heaven.

General - Loon Café
Any list like this needs to obligatorily mention the The Loon's chile - but I'll be honest and say I just don't get it. It is also VERY crowded before and after the game, and any other time that a bar should be crowded. But The Loon does just about everything well - great sandwiches across the board, good service, fun crowd and even the specialty shot - The Grape Ape. I have a good friend to whom this place has basically become a second home. And "second" is in debate.

Sandwich - Murray’s
I've opined about Murray's Steak Sandwich before at length, but it's worth bringing up again, so here's the deal.

Go into the bar - not the restaurant - sit down, order yourself a beer and help yourself to the addictive (and complimentary) garlic toast. Then, order the steak sandwich. Personally, I like it on white bread instead of the panini and also want to make sure it includes the bacon.

This isn't a Philly steak sandwich. It's bite-sized chunks of Murray’s steak, and it is unbelievable. It is like eating one of their steaks, but somehow even better. Is it the cheese? The bacon? The way the steak juice soaks into the bread? Or is it that every bite includes the char-ry texture outside and the tender meat inside? Don't know and don't care. All I know is I miss it like a sibling.

Buffalo Wings - Runyon’s
The buffalo wing craze hit in the late 80s, and Runyon's has been famous for theirs ever since. They don't try to put any fancy twist on the recipe; this is just the ultimate wing, exactly what you want it to be, only better.

Beer
You might be wondering why beer has its own category? But only if you haven’t met me.

Local, Big Beers - Gluek's
They have several taps, but the three you'll want to pay attention to are the three Gluek's brands - a blond, a redhead and a brunette. I like the darkest of them, but it isn't a heavy beer, just a very dark lager style beer called (I think) a dunkel. That's good, because I tend towards the large version of it, served in a liter mug.

Brew Pub - Rock Bottom
It's a national chain of brew pubs, but a good one. They rotate a selection of about a half dozen self-made beers, but risk instead trying one of the couple of casks beers they constantly rotate. Their food is also solid fairly solid, and if you're looking for a fairly light but tasty appetizer, give the soft pretzel a pull.

Beer Selection - MacKenzie's
The further you get from Target Field, the smaller the crowd at the bar, so there is a huge difference between being 2 and 5 blocks away. MacKenzie's is the latter, which is nice because you don't need to fight your way to the couple of dozen taps they have behind the bar. These guys CARE about the beers they serve and aren't afraid to go off the edge of the map to find something they like. As such, you'll find at least a half dozen you've never had before, and when you come back in a month, you'll find another half dozen. That sounds like a pretty good night to me. Two, actually.

Breakfast
Who wants to blow an entire day around the ballpark? Ooh, ooh, me! I do! I DO! So start with a little breakfast before the afternoon game at one of these places.

Cinnamon Roll – Ike’s
The weekend all-you-can-eat brunch at Ike's is fast becoming legendary. The primary feature is the starter - a cinnamon roll to share that is literally the size of Charlie Brown's head. There's plenty more, eggs to order and a family-style plate of everything else you would ever want, but if you're not careful with the "appetizer," it'll all be superfluous.

Ooh, and if you want to shake off last night's festivities, you might want to pony up for the Bloody Mary. I don't drink them, but my wife gets as excited about one as she did about Cliff Lee rejecting the Yankees.

Adventurous - Hell's Kitchen
Hidden about a six-block walk from Target Field is Hell's Kitchen, known for its eclectic food and even more eclectic interior decorating. So when I'm feeling a little less Minnesota Mild, I like to try out the Maple-Glazed Bison Sausage, Huevos Rancheros or the Buttermilk/Cornmeal Pancakes.

Irish Breakfast/Hangover Fixer - The Local
They have a breakfast menu, but who has that kind of patience? Opt for the buffet, and dish yourself an enormous pile of the creamy hash browns. But be careful - they are good enough that you will crave them for months afterwards. You've been warned.

Diner Breakfast - The Band Box
The downside is that this pint-sized diner is way over by the Metrodome, but if you're looking for a true "joint," this is your place. It's been around forever, isn't much more than a counter and some chairs, and is the most affordable place on the list. The breakfast sandwiches are good, but seriously consider the pancakes, which are the size and thickness of a big 'ol diner plate.

Postgame Outside Escapes
The outside game is over, but the last place you want to go is inside. I like to stay outside at one of these options.

Being Fabulous – 7’s Roof
The appeal? Basically, it's that you're on a roof. To be honest, it's not a particularly beautiful view, but it's a roof, it's outside and it's summer in Minnesota. That's enough for bliss.

Not that the bar isn’t beautiful. Lovely people wearing lovelier clothes sitting on plushy couches. Frankly, I'm alway surprised that they'll let me come up there.

Being Young & Stupid – Sneaky Pete’s
Speaking of places that probably shouldn’t let me in, I’m entirely too old to go to Sneaky Pete’s. It is full of very young, very attractive people acting young and attractive. But they will let me in, which is great because it is easily the best people watching place in the Warehouse District. And that’s saying something.

The outside portion is in the back, and it includes both a patio and a deck. Neither overlooks much, but you’ll have trouble turning away from the drama that plays out there at the bar and dance floor anyway.

Ambiance – Smalley’s Alley
I'm not sure why this place calls to me so much. It isn't the beer selection, which is dominated by every kind of light beer imaginable. It isn't the crowd, which is shoulder-to-shoulder substantial before and after a game. And it isn't the food, since they changed the mouth-watering seasoned sour cream.

I'm left with: it's an alley. I just love having a beer in an outside city alley. It feels like you're in a much bigger city, possibly in a different era, next to Wrigley or Fenway or even old Shibe Park. Am I alone in this? I can't be, given just how crazy crowded it is every game night, right? Or do people really just like having five kinds of light beer available that much? (Gawd, I hope not.)

There, I feel better now. Bring on the snow and the cold. I can hold on for another couple of months. But if I missed anything, make sure to let me know in the comments below.

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Another baseball tradition is returning after a year hiatus. The Annual Hot Stove Banquet is back and will be Friday January 28th at 6:00 PM at Carpenter’s Hall at 710 Olive St. in St. Paul. It’ll be hosted by Brad Zellar with special guest Jim Kaat.

I’ve been to this event several times and it really is a wonderful, comfortable and casual get-together of hardcore baseball fans. Tickets are $30 in advance (send a check payable to BPT to 1141 Portland Ave, St. Paul, MN 55104) or $35 at the door. The Voice of Reason and I will be there to talk baseball to anyone else willing to brave the elements.

On Bert, Zealotry and Jack

Sometimes The Debate Isn't Just About The Player

I don’t get into MVP, Cy Young and Hall of Fame debates too often, and there is a reason for that: too often the debate isn’t really about the player. Instead, it’s a disguised debate between evangelists about their philosophies. And the prize becomes recognition of a paradigm (a view of the world), rather than recognition of a player.

That was especially true about the election yesterday of Bert Blyleven to the Hall of Fame. When Blyleven was first on the ballot, back in 1998, he only received 17.5% of the vote, and it went DOWN on his second try in 1999, when he received the 15th most votes. That’s not necessarily a death sentence, but consider the names at #10-#14: Jim Kaat, Dale Murphy, Tommy John, Dave Parker, Minnie Minoso. None of those guys are likely to make it to the Hall of Fame very soon.

So what changed? Why was Bert different? The cynics slyly ask how Blyleven became a much more deserving pitcher without throwing another pitch? The upbeat way to view Bert’s turnaround is that the process bought the voters some time. And during that time, voters and the public gradually recognized in Bert’s body of work what they didn’t recognize when he was pitching – that he was very, very good for a very, very, VERY long time.

That’s part of the answer, but there’s a more contentious subtext to this election that drove a lot of the passion over it.

Mostly what has changed over the fourteen years of Bert’s candidacy is our philosophy about baseball and some of its statistics. And in this case, the one that found itself on the front line of the battle was the “Win” statistic for pitchers.

A “Win” is basically awarded to a pitcher who is on the mound when his team takes the lead for good. It was a statistic that was considerably more valuable a long time ago, when relievers weren’t such a big part of the game. (It also compensated when pitchers more regularly faced extreme conditions that could significantly impact the ability of the teams to score. For instance, in a crazy high scoring environment - like the old Athletic Park in Minneapolis - a pitcher might give up a lot of runs, but so would the opposing pitcher. A Win was a way of balancing that out.) Like any statistic, it has its limitations, but it still serves as sort of a shorthand gauge of whether a pitcher is generally effective enough to pitch late into games.

Blyleven was perceived by those who have embraced newer pitching as having been wronged by the Win statistic. He had a career 3.30 ERA and was an absolute work horse on the mound – exactly the kind of guy who should have racked up a ton of Wins. But he didn’t, in part because he was often on teams that didn’t score a lot of runs.

Because he didn’t have many wins, he wasn’t perceived as being particularly valuable. That led to not getting a lot of Cy Young voting attention, finishing in the top 10 just four times (including three times in the top 5). Because he didn’t have those credentials, he was in danger of being overlooked for the Hall of Fame.

But along with enlightenment comes a touch of ugliness. Inherent in that attitude is that the sportswriters of the 80s, the first arbiters of history, got it wrong. First, there is a righteousness to those who believe that the evolving understanding of baseball has reached its zenith, instead of a phase that could be proved just as flawed 15 years from now. And second, for a group that has often been mocked and blocked by the Old Guard of writers, this comeuppance is especially appealing. It’s easy to get lathered up and write a scathing “We’re right, they’re wrong” story using Blyleven as the instrument of destruction.

That’s true on the other side, too. The Old Guard responds saying that “internet zealots” are driving the candidacy, and that isn’t so far from wrong. But it removes the focus from the real question: did we under appreciate Blyleven during his career? The battle becomes much larger than that - and much more personal.

The battle doesn’t end with Blyleven. In fact, the next battle might involve a name equally dear to Twins fans: Jack Morris. But roles may be reversed because in many ways Morris is the exact opposite of Blylelven.

Morris WAS appreciated during his career by the Old Guard, finishing his 18-year career with seven top 10 finishes in Cy Young voting and five finishes in the Top 5. That’s one less in each category than Nolan Ryan, a no-doubt Hall of Fame inductee, and Ryan needed a 27-year career to reach that mark.

However, Morris’ career ERA is 3.90 which is considerably higher than that of Ryan (3.19) and Blyleven (3.31). It’s also likely that much of Morris’ recognition was a result of having so many Wins: from 1979 through 1992 he averaged almost 17 wins per year. And that’s partly because he was on very good and strong offensive teams. Finally, Morris wasn’t particularly good at striking people out, another darling stat.

So now it’s the Old Guard’s turn to attack. In particular the question is whether runs is a flawed way to measure Morris. Morris has always admitted he pitched to the score, and we know that pitchers are coached to do so. That certainly explains why his ERA, innings pitched and win totals were so high but his K rate was so low. Perhaps he was as good as he needed to be. A little thing called “Game 7 of the 1991 World Series” might support that.

That’s the sort of argument that could generate a reaction that dwarves anything we saw with Blyleven. When you start messing with runs allowed and runs scored, you’re messing with the lifeblood of most of the advanced metrics. Runs link to wins and losses via Bill James “Pythagorean” Theorem. Then they link to Runs Created, which is the bridge from team performance to individual players performance. That leads to more stats, like WAR and VORP and umpteen others. When you question whether runs accurately evaluate a player’s performance, you call into question the basis of about 80% of new statistics.

The Old Guard doesn’t need to recognize this. They just need to say “Don’t try to tell us Morris wasn’t great. We were there. He was great. And if your new statistics can’t tell you that, maybe the problem is the new statistics.”

Which, of course, is what the debate was really about all the time.

Dangerous Game

Let’s cover a little Major League news, and then we’ll get down to what matters – the Twins. But first, let’s talk about a game show.

The Game Show
Have you seen “Deal or No Deal?” It’s a game show where there are something like 20 locked cases, each containing a dollar amount from $1 to $1,000,000. Those amounts are all listed on a big board. You pick one case, but you can’t open it. Instead you slowly open the other cases to see the amount of money you DIDN’T win.

That’s the "show" part.

The "game" is that a banker is watching you open these other cases and trying to buy away the case you picked. So, say you get down to the last five cases and know that yours holds one of these five remaining amounts: $1, $5, $10, $100,000 and $1,000,000. The banker offers you a deal of $170,000 for your case. Do you take it, or do you open another case? Deal or no deal?

There are always wrong decisions, but it becomes downright painful when they are strung together. For instance, say you turn down the deal above, open a different case – and it’s the $1,000,000 case. Now yours is just one of four cases, and the amounts are either $1, $5, $10 or $100,000. The banker only offers about $20,000 for your case.

Host Howie Mandel tries to put a positive spin on it – “you could still win $100,000” – but that’s a disaster, right? Five minutes ago your case was worth $150,000 more than it is now. You’ll never recoup that money. But it becomes a real car crash if you turn down that deal and the next case you open is $100,000. Now the banker is generously offering you $5 as the camera zooms in on your spouse who is lying on the floor of the studio audience like a wet noodle.

Doesn’t that sound like fun? No? Well, think about that when you gripe about all these MLB free agents and their representatives, because the experience is similar.

Major League News
In the free agency market, sometimes the offer from the banker is generous early. That’s how players like Jayson Werth or Cliff Lee find their deals. But when that doesn’t happen, the agent and Deal contestants often share a trait – they keep rejecting deals, hoping their luck will change.

If you watch “Deal” often, you can see this behavior all the time. As the breaks go against a contestant, they become more and more desperate to turn things around. It’s a natural reaction. They want to get back to where they “were.” They feel like they lost money and make suspect decisions to try and get back there.

There are four free agents who are in similar situations to those contestants. Yesterday it was reported that one of them, third baseman Adrian Beltre, had lost a suitor in the Oakland Athletics. That is one less case with decent money in it. It isn’t the first he lost.

Beltre was reported to have offers from the A’s and Red Sox that he turned down. The A’s are now going to spend money elsewhere. The Red Sox seem to be out of the market now that they have traded for Adrian Gonzalez (moving Kevin Youkilis to third base).

Beltre was also reported to have had an offer from the Angels that they have since withdrawn. The Angels seem like the only really good option for Beltre, but their offer guaranteed about $20 million less than he and agent Scott Boras expected.

Odds are this will play out fine for both Beltre and the Angels. They seem like a natural fit for each other and Beltre’s “no deal” stance is clearly a negotiating ploy. But the Halos have the freedom to look at another option, like trading for an inferior player while they spend their money on something else. Then that case would be gone for Beltre, too.

So then what happens?

Dangerous Game
For what happens next, Beltre just needs to dial up one of Boras’ other clients: Jarrod Washburn.

Washburn said “no deal” last year to the Twins, reportedly turning down a contract offer early in the offseason. He thought he would get a better deal. After all, he had been excellent for most of 2009, posting a 2.73 ERA with Seattle before a knee injury inflated the mark by a run after a trade to Detroit.

But the offers he received never came close enough to his expectations. And eventually, the cases dried up. He didn’t play in the majors or minors in 2010. Last we heard in November, he was interested in a “comeback” in 2011. But his comeback wouldn’t be from injury or poor play, just from turning down deals.

Washburn wasn’t the only cautionary tale. There was also Jermaine Dye, who reportedly received several offers even late into spring training. He also didn’t think they were commensurate with the 27 home runs and 81 RBI he was responsible for in 2009. He also wants to return though he “won’t do a minor league deal.”

There is no guarantee that either player will get another shot, which is remarkable considering the stats they put up in their last years in the majors. Their sin? Waiting too long to make a deal. Trying to get back to where they “were.”

The Twins
That’s an opportunity that a savvy organization might find value. Both players are great fits for the Twins. For pennies on the dollar the Twins could sign their sixth starter - a southpaw whose fly ball tendencies won’t hurt him in Target Field. They could add their power bench bat, who would be right-handed and able hobble around in a tiny right field in a pinch. Combined, the two players would likely cost about what the Twins paid Nick Punto last year.

That isn’t a half bad idea. But it’s not the point of this story. Because that’s not the only way this game show affects the Twins. Before the Twins sign anyone, they seem intent on waiting for Carl Pavano to find his deal.

Pavano is one of the four free agents I mentioned above, and the game has not gone well for him either. Initially expecting to sign a 3-year $30+ million deal, his cases with the big money have been disappearing. First his "Type A" price tag scared away plenty of teams. Then the Brewers pulled out when they signed Zach Greinke. The Rangers have apparently acquired Brandon Webb. The Nationals have less money to spend after their contract for Werth and seem determined to stick with a one-year deal for The ‘Stache.

Suddenly, it isn’t clear that anyone is willing to give Pavano the years or the money that he desires, let alone the draft pick they need to give to the Twins. He seems to have one case left – the Twins.

Or does he? The Twins have spent the last few years trying to infuse talent into their minor leagues with international signings and trades. Do they really want to give up two high draft picks? Not to mention spend $7-10M that could be spent on other needs? How sure are we that what we’re hearing about the Twins interest from the front office instead of the coaching staff? Or Pavano's agent?

And if the Twins do take away their case? Then Pavano really has a problem. Because he’s saddled with something that even Dye and Washburn weren’t – that high draft pick the signing team needs to give up. Is a team that is marginally interested in him – say Pittsburgh is willing to offer 2 years and $14 million – going to be willing to give up their second round pick for the privilege of paying him that? If not, any deal needs to go through the Twins.

Conclusion
There is a lot of concern out there about the Twins inactivity. The concern isn’t about their pace as much as it is a fear that the Twins just won’t do much.

The hard truth is that they probably won't. I can publish the payroll crunching next week, but it looks like the Twins are going to top out around $110-$115 million in payroll. As you’ve seen here several times, that didn’t allow for much offseason maneuvering. And now it would leave them with only $3-$8M left they can spend.

And so they are also pressing the “no deal” button, waiting for the right case full of talent to appear. It’s a strategy that seems to have worked so far. But like Beltre, Pavano, Washburn, Dye and the unemployed plumber from last night’s game show, they need to be careful not to wait too long.

Pavano's Market

With Cliff Lee signing and Zach Greinke traded, many sports writers are predicting that Carl Pavano is finally the most desirable starting pitching on the market this offseason. But the market isn’t so sure.

Certainly the pitcher that is getting the most interest is Brandon Webb. Webb has been mentioned locally as an alternate option if Pavano signs with another team, but the truth might be that he is even more desirable to most teams. He has tremendous upside, having been a Cy Young winner in 2006. He’s also four years younger than Pavano. He’s coming off an injury, but that hasn’t scared away teams in the past. Last year the A’s signed a pitcher in a similar position, Ben Sheets, to a 1-year $10 million deal.

But Webb isn’t the only pitcher that might rank higher. When Lee signed with the Phillies, many thought the Rangers would suddenly be interested in Pavano. But not only has that not yet happened, it meant another pitcher was added to the market. The Phillies have made it known that starting pitcher Joe Blanton is available, probably because the Phillies need to cut some payroll to pay Lee.

Blanton is unlike Pavano in that he is a flyball pitcher whereas Pavano was more groundball-oriented this last year. Critics will wince at Blanton’s 4.82 ERA in 2010, but for his career, he has a 4.30 ERA, compared to Pavano’s 4.34. Blanton has consistently “eaten innings.” Most importantly, he’s five years younger than Pavano and locked into a contract that will pay him $8.5 million over each of the next two years. That’s less than Pavano is seeking.

Of course, a team would need to trade for Blanton – but a team would essentially need to trade for the free agent Pavano, too. That’s because any team that signs Pavano is forfeiting a very high draft pick, comparable to the Twins first round picks the last few years. Those have been turned into Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers and Aaron Hicks - significant prospects within months of being chosen. Giving up a 1^st round pick is similar to giving up a top prospect, which is something the Phillies likely won’t be able to demand for Blanton. So trading for Blanton might actually be cheaper than just signing Pavano.

If that surprises you, you’re probably not alone – I think Pavano and agent Tom O’Connell might be surprised too. They had the opportunity to accept arbitration from the Twins and make $11 to $13 million from the Twins for next year, but that ship has sailed. Instead, they’re watching an $8.5M pitcher who teams need to trade for AND who had a bad year last year leapfrog Pavano. That’s doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in one’s position.

Of course, it all could change. All it takes is one team to lose their head, as the Nationals have already shown us once this offseason. That’s why Pavano – and the Twins – continue to wait. But so far, waiting has helped the Twins far more than Pavano. And it appears Pavano will want to wait at least a bit longer.

Rushing Pavano

It’s tempting to wait for something you want. The question is how much waiting costs you.

In this case, that something is Carl Pavano. Pavano is certainly worth waiting for. He was the second best starting pitcher on the team, the team’s horse, and proved to be a super-powered Luigi, outdueling the likes of Roy Halladay and Johan Santana.

It also looks like he might be more affordable than we might have thought. Originally, he looked like he would earn at least a 3-year, $30M deal. But the market for his services became a lot thinner once the Twins offered him arbitration and he turned it down. Faced with needing to give up a high draft pick to sign Pavano, the field has reportedly narrowed to:
- Milwaukee (who says they won’t offer more than a 2-year contract),
- Washington (who says they won’t offer a multi-year deal),
- Texas (who everyone assumes would be interested if they lost out on Cliff Lee, but hasn’t pursued Pavano yet) and
- your Minnesota Twins.

It seems increasingly likely that the Twins could re-sign him for just 2 years and $20 million. Or even $2/18 with a 3rd year team option that they can buy out for $2M? Either contract would be a bargain given his performance last year. And with an xFIP (a stat that is a better predictor of ERA than ERA) of 4.02, why shouldn’t he remain effective?

Geek Chorus: It’s not like the mustache from which he clearly derives his superpowers is going anywhere soon.

On the other hand, we found out yesterday what waiting for his price to come down can cost when Jesse Crain signed with the White Sox. It isn’t a surprise that Crain left – the Twins never looked like they were interested in paying the top-flight money Crain received. But it is also clear that the Twins are working within a fairly limited budget, and they aren’t spending that money until they have resolved the Pavano situation.

Geek Chorus: So what was ths cost exactly? Or is this more about what Crain "represents?"

The latter, and losing him and Matt Guerrier signals that the reliever free agent market is heating up. The Twins must address other needs. Their bullpen is almost completely empty. Their bench lacks any kind of real replacement and their starting lineup is filled with players that missed significant time last year. Nick covered this yesterday, and if there is one thing we’ve learned about the AL Central in this last decade, it is that the deeper team usually survives to go to the postseason.

I don’t have real strong feelings one way or the other on Pavano, even at a bargain price, but the timing is important. The high-end relievers are starting to sign, and that’s a market that the Twins can’t miss out on. There is an unbelievable amount of talent out there this year for relievers – a lot of it supplied by the Twins. It is a buyer’s market, and could allow the Twins to establish a strong bullpen for the next couple of years - if they don't miss out on it.

If Pavano really wants to come back to the Twins, and the Twins really want to have back Pavano, it’s time to supply him an offer with an expiration date. By the end of the weekend, we’ll start spending the money that we are offering you.

Personally, I might walk away now. Pavano is great, but he’s not the left-handed ace or right-handed power that should be the top two priorities this offseason, so I can’t justify spending limited money on him. This team signaled how strapped for cash they were when they traded away a pretty decent shortstop for two intriguing but marginal prospects. It will cost at least another $9M to sign Pavano, and that is $9 million that can’t be spent on filing several other needs.

In fact, it sounds increasingly like the Twins would need to trade away one of their younger cheaper starters to find room for Pavano’s salary in the budget. There is a reason why Kevin Slowey has been the subject of trade rumors lately, and it’s not just because the Twins would have six reasonable starting pitchers. They’re never been afraid of that in the past. It's because they would want to get the $3M he could make in arbitration off the books.

I also worry about giving a multi-year contract to a guy who was injured for so much of his career. It wasn’t just New York. This year was only the third time he had ever achieved 200 innings. And while in New York an orthopedic specialist diagnosed him with a hip dysfunction that led to one leg being longer than the other, which they thought was the root cause of all his back/elbow/shoulder problems. He's been reasonably healthy the last two years, but Twins fans who watched his exceptional year might not understand just how rare that was.

But I’ll say this: it’s a close call. If the Twins sign Pavano at a reasonable deal, and he performs anywhere near to what he did last year, the worse case scenario is that he’s a tradable asset next offseason. Best case? He keeps on rolling and finally lives up to the hype that surrounded him in his youth, when he was both a premier free agent signing and the guy who was traded for Pedro Martinez.

And so, neither is a bad option. What is critical is that the decision be made fairly quickly, so that if the money isn't spend on Pavano, it's spend while there are still other options available.

The Casilla Boogeyman

A couple of months ago it was all so clear. Alexi Casilla would be a starting middle infielder for the Minnesota Twins in 2011. It had been predestined since August, when it became clear that Orlando Hudson was likely to walk away from the Twins as a free agent.

Casilla, after recovering from an elbow injury, had a decent year in 2010, hitting .276, getting on base 33 % of the time and even showing a little more power than we’ve see before. He’s also only 26 years old, and best of all is fairly cheap as this is his first year of arbitration. He looked like a decent replacement -- decent enough that all four of the TwinsCentric guys blueprints chose him to be starting at second base on Opening Day.

But since the trade of JJ Hardy, that all seems to have changed. Casilla has become the default target, a boogeyman that Twins fans should fear. He’s inconsistent. His defense at shortstop is suspect. He’s a question mark. He doesn’t get on base enough or have enough power.

What I can’t figure out is: where were these concerns a month ago? After all, he was slated for 500 at-bats at that time. He was going to be playing a middle infield position. He was the same guy that we were ready to hand a job to.

So, pop quiz, hot shot: Why are we suddenly so concerned about handing him a job now? Let’s make it a multiple choice question…

A) His offense isn’t good enough.
Casilla’s career numbers are under whelming.

(MS-Word is telling me that under whelming is two words. Really? Is overwhelming? No, that works fine as one word. Which raises the question: what is just plain whelming?

whelm: tr. v. 1.To cover with water; submerge. 2. To overwhelm.)

Ok, so Casilla’s offensive career numbers don’t exactly whelm anyone. In his major league career, he’s hit just .249 and got on base at a .306 clip, which are the two things we’re going to care the most about from our middle infielder offensively. What’s more, he’s had some time to show us what he’s capable of, with 958 AB.

The good news? He was better than that last year. He has been quite a bit better than that in his minor league career, hitting .297 with and OBP of .370. And he seems to have a pretty solid idea what the strike zone is, as he walked 13 times last year compared to 17 strikeouts. That ratio is pretty consistent to what he showed in the minors.

He’s also fast, which is the oft-cited reason for having him on the roster. In what is essentially a little less than two season’s worth of at-bats, he has 35 stolen bases. Even better, he only has been caught just four times, a phenomenal percentage.

But the really big question is – if we were ready to hand him the job at second base, is it his offense that we’re really worried about now that he might be playing shortstop? After all, second base is a far more demanding position offensively than shortstop. If he could hold his own there, why not across the infield? In fact, wouldn’t that be a way to maximize his value to the organization?

B) His defense isn’t good enough.

When Casilla basically lost his job at second base in 2009, one of the reasons was his defensive mistakes. He wasn’t very consistent, and he seemed to make more than his share of mental mistakes. Ultimate Zone Rating confirmed his struggles with a ranking of 7.2 runs worse than average that year.

Of course, statisticians would be quick to point out that is a fairly small sample size. The year before, when he played a lot more innings, he was essentially average. Last year, with far fewer innings, he was also essentially average. In his career, over about 1.5 years of fielding at 2B, UZR estimates he has cost the team about 12 runs.

I think that makes people very concerned about him moving to shortstop, because shortstop is a more demanding defensive position. It is not, however, just a tougher version of the same position. It isn’t unusual for players to be better at shortstop than at second base. For instance, Nick Punto played roughly the same amount at 2B and SS while with the Twins. According to UZR, he was about 13 runs per season better at SS.

Twins fans might have been seeing a little of this in Casilla. Last year he played more innings at shortstop than at second base. To my eye, he was competent there, mixing in some Alexi-gaffes with the occasional really nice play. Ultimate Zone Rating agrees, by the way. It says he saved four runs over an average shortstop last year in very limited time. Anyone familiar with UZR would warn that this is a very small sample size, and UZR needs a much larger sample to give much of an evaluation. But there certainly isn’t any evidence there that he can’t handle the job.

Of course, if it doesn’t work out, it’s not like the Twins hands are tied. You might recall that the other guy likely to start in the middle infield, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, has a little experience at shortstop. He was switched over there by a former major league manager, Bobby Valentine. He won two gold gloves there, so I think you would grant me that it’s possible he could work out there.

C) Now we have two question marks in the middle infield.

Sure we do – but who is the bigger question mark exactly? The Twins are about as familiar as they can be seeing as they traded for him while he was still in A-ball. And while I’m sure they’ve done their due diligence in scouting Nishioka, he’s the one that has been playing overseas, against a level of competition that the Twins aren’t completely familiar with.

Casilla isn’t going to need to adjust to a completely different culture and a slightly different game. Casilla isn’t going to be the one struggling to communicate with his teammates and coaches. For that matter, Casilla is officially on the team. Casilla is the (by far) more affordable player. So why are we sure Casilla is the guy that will struggle? Or that he might be the odd man out when a rumor about trading for Brendan Ryan makes the rounds?

D) We had something taken away from us.

This is, I think, the correct answer. Since we received word that the Twins had won exclusive negotiating rights to Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Twins fans mistakenly assumed that Casilla was back in a utility role. The Twins had a flashy new toy from Japan to play with so Casilla would be at the same position he played last year of utility infielder.

Of course, we know now that was never really the case. Nishioka was always a replacement option for Hardy, no matter whether he swapped positions or not. The Twins decided Hardy wasn’t worth what he would make in arbitration (which is likely closer to $7M than $6M), whether that was because of his injuries, speed, or whatever. When it became apparent that he WAS worth that money to other teams, they were able to offer him arbitration and trade him.

But it doesn’t FEEL like that to us. In our minds, Casilla just got a promotion and we focus on the things he doesn’t have that Hardy did. Casilla doesn’t have Hardy’s offensive upside. He doesn’t have Hardy’s consistent defense. He is more of a question mark than Hardy. We concentrate on these things because they were just taken away from us, not because Casilla is being asked to do anything more than we expected from him a month ago. We might justify it with analysis, but I think the motivation is more primal the analytical: we just want our toy back.

Or maybe a primal urge was what drove us to give Alexi a starting job in the first place two months ago – I don’t know. I also don’t know that Casilla is going to thrive as a starting shortstop or second baseman in the major leagues. But I think it’s time to find out. His patience, his speed, his age and his price are an encouraging combination. So quit trying to convince me that he is the boogeyman.

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The Diamond Awards

OK, so I have that big ticket item to give your favorite Twins fan – even if that person is yourself. It’s a unique opportunity, something they’ll probably remember forever, and it all benefits a good cause.

On Thursday, January 27th, the night before TwinsFest, the 2011 Diamond Awards takes place. This is the banquet that the Twins organization throws where they hand out team awards like Most Valuable Player, etc. It’s hosted by Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven, features a lineup of Twins greats, and is even televised. Think of it as the Emmys, except in Minnesota and about baseball. Doesn’t that sound like a great baseball date?

And while TwinsFest will be at the Metrodome, the Diamond Awards will be at Target Field. (Don’t ask me where. I don’t have any idea how they’ll be doing that, but I have to imagine it’s a great chance to go behind the scenes there a little.

The cost is $150/ticket (and you can purchase them here), but $100 of it is tax-deductible and it benefits the University of Minnesota Medical Foundation, supporting research in ataxia, muscular dystrophy, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease, and ALS. And you can buy them now, before the tax year ends.

So let’s count the ways this rocks: you get to dress up for a great date night (1) that includes hanging out with Twins greats (2) at Target Field (3) during the most baseball-starved part of the season (4). Plus, it supports worthy research (5) and can be written off before this tax year ends (6).

Oh, and I’ll be there, too. (Which probably lowers it back that down to 5.5). So bring it up at dinner tonight and I’ll see you there.

For more info, check out their website.