Offseason Preview: The White Sox

Today's excerpt from the 2010-11 TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook is a new feature this year. Each team in the AL Central will be examined to show what Twins fans can expect from their offseason. I like it because it provides me a little comfort: I don't expect any other division rival to improve much this year.

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Chicago White Sox

2010 Record – 88-74 (2nd place in the AL Central)
Best Hitter: Paul Konerko (.312/.393/.584, 39 HR, 111 RBI 72 BB, 110 K)
Best Starting Pitcher: John Danks (3.72 ERA, 213 IP, 162 K 1.22 WHIP, 15-11)
Best Relief Pitcher: Chris Sale (1.27 ERA, 21.1 IP, 28 k, 10 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3 saves)

State of the White Sox
The White Sox looked like they were starting to retool this offseason, so expectations for them this year were guarded. That became especially true after they floundered for the first two months of the season. By the beginning of June, the Sox were 9.5 games back in the division. It appeared the season was already over, and rumors flew that they were fielding offers for their impending free agents.

But feasting on a relatively soft interleague schedule, the Sox won eleven games in a row in June, jumping to within 1.5 games of first place by the end of the month. They followed that with another nine-game winning streak in July, resulting in the division lead at the All-Star Break, a position until the middle of August. However, a hard-charging Twins team eventually overcame them, due in part to the Twins 13-5 record in head-to-head games against their rivals.

Biggest Needs in the 2010/11 Offseason
The White Sox tried all season to add power, but face an exponentially harder task this offseason: adding power exactly when they might be losing their best power hitter. Paul Konerko is becoming a free agent after a year in which he garnered MVP buzz. He’ll rightfully entice some big numbers on the free agent market, and the White Sox will need to pay dearly for his services.

And this offseason, that might be a problem. Payroll for the Sox has hovered around the $100 million mark for several years, and big salaries to Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are constricting how much there is to spend. Even if the Sox don’t tender a contract to closer Bobby Jenks, their payroll will come in around $90M – Either GM Kenny Williams is going to need to trade away some guaranteed salaries or owner Jerry Reinsdorf is going to need to commit more to payroll to afford Konerko.

And of course, just retaining Konerko isn’t going to make this a successful offseason. The Sox need to also find a way to replace catcher AJ Pierzynski, reshuffle the rotation after its late season meltdown, and add power at the designated hitter position. I wonder who they'll target? (Hint: Jim Thome’s family still lives in Chicago.) Plus, there is the ongoing saga on whether they will try and sign manager Ozzie Guillen to an extension prior to the final year of his contract.

All of which means this offseason might look a lot like the last one – more retooling, but maybe not a lot of improvement. And more guarded expectations for 2011.

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The Pavano Dilemna

I'm going to run short excerpts from the upcoming TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook e-book all week. Why? Because you can pre-order it this week, and only this week. Pre-ordering has significant benefits, as you can see below...

Oooh, the plot thickens. Carl Pavano is a Type A free agent, and that adds a whole new level of intrigue.

One could make a decent argument that Pavano is the second best starting pitcher on the free agent market behind Cliff Lee, especially for a contending team. So, after years of rebuilding his reputation from the Bronx disaster, he should be in demand. He’s at least a ten million per year pitcher.

However, he’s 34 years old and turns 35 in January. Despite pitching 420 innings over the last two years, his time in New York has earned him a reputation as soft. His 3.75 ERA this year is totally out of line with anything he’s done since 2004. I’m not certain the market gives a player like that a three-year deal.

If the Twins offer him arbitration and he turns it down, things get even dicier for him. Is he significantly better than Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, Ted Lilly or Bronson Arroyo? If not, why wouldn’t a team just sign one of those other guys and keep the first round draft pick they would need to surrender to the Twins?

So if the Twins offer him arbitration, there is a chance he takes it, just like last year. Last year, that was fine, as his arbitration value was around $7M and the Twins had $30M to spend. This year he would demand closer to $10M and the Twins might only have $18M to spend. Can they risk that much on Pavano when it might mean not getting back JJ Hardy or one of their closers?

In one way, this is good news for the Twins. After all, there are plenty of other teams that would love to sign Pavano to a one-year $10M contract, but his Type A status essentially gives the Twins the inside track on that. But if the Twins decide they can’t afford him, they’re likely going to lose their most consistent starting pitcher for nothing.

That's part of a 1500-word essay on the Twins free agents in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook e-book. If you're a regular reader, please take a look at pre-ordering it. I think you'll really like it, and in a couple of weeks, you're going to be reading all kinds of testimonies telling you how much you'll like it. But if you buy it this week, you get it a week early with bonus content AND (if you're one of the first 500 pre-orders) for just $4.95 instead of $9.95.

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Thanks. We'll see you tomorrow.

The Party Is Over

Parties end.

It’s a sad truth, and you don’t need to be happy about it. But embrace it sooner, rather than later. Nobody wants to be THAT guy, stumbling around a fully-lit dining room, screaming at nobody in particular to “PUT THE MUSIC BACK ON!” So here it is again:

Parties end.

This party is going to end. The Twins Cities did not suddenly swell to the size of an east coast metropolis. The local TV contract has not been renegotiated. And the Twins aren’t going to open a newer, bigger, better ballpark again next year. The huge bump in revenue that the team expected has happened. It isn’t happening again.

That bump in revenue, and thus payroll, was significant. Payroll jumped up $30 million or about 50% over the previous year (according to USAToday). Comparatively, MLB payrolls actually decreased 2.5%.

Historically, MLB payrolls have generally increased 5-10% from year-to-year over the past decade. The Twins have exceeded that a little, another few percentage points, except when they lost particularly expensive guys.

So what does this have to do with parties? We’re about to cover the Twins payroll situation for next year, and when you see how bleak it is, your first reaction is going to be that that there MUST be more money available. If you want to decide that, go ahead. But deciding it doesn’t put any more beer into the keg.

On the left is the back-of-the-napkin sketch of your shell of a team:

Big Picture

Unless you dump some guaranteed salaries, you’ve got about $18 million to spend - and that’s if payroll increases 15% this year to $110 million. You need to completely reconstruct a bullpen, patch over a middle infield, possibly replace an ace starting pitcher, and decide if you want to keep fan favorite Jim Thome as he closes in on 600 home runs. (Good luck.) Let’s walk through each area.

Infield
That beautiful middle infield that produced offensively and shined defensively? It could be completely gone. You own the rights for JJ Hardy for one more year, so you get to decide if he stays or not. But he’ll make what an arbitrator says he is worth, and that’s likely to be about $7M. They aren’t included in the above tab. Orlando Hudson is a free agent, so even if you want to keep him, you might not be able to. If you do want to bid on him, plan on spending about $6M. Punto is also a free agent, but will likely command utility player money.

Outfield/DH

Cuddyer’s money is guaranteed, so you need to trade him or pay him. Same with Span, not that you would want to lose him. You get to choose on Delmon - that salary is an estimate of what the arbitrator will pay him – and Kubel, who has a one-year option on his existing contract. If you want to keep Jim Thome, you had better plan on spending $4M or so – and may need to find him fulltime at-bats.

Bench

Brendan Harris may not be on your team, but he’s on the books because he signed a multi-year deal last offseason, so you’re paying the $1.75M whether you want to or not. Repko is your choice and that salary is an estimate of what the arbitrator will rule.

Rotation

Wanna bring back the ‘stache? You’re going to need to give the 34-year-old a three-year deal for around $30 million. The last two years he has signed “make good” deals, and he did. It’s only fair he get paid, and the market will ensure he will.

Bullpen

I’m listing the bullpen last, but you should probably attack it first. Nathan’s money is guaranteed and there won’t be any insurance to cover it this year, so don’t ask. You have your choice on Neshek, Mijares and Capps – but Capps is going to cost you $7-$9M in arbitration. You also have an option on Fuentes for $9M if you want, but you’re more likely to let him become a free agent – just like Guerrier, Crain, Rauch, Mahay, and Flores will be.

Whew. Roll up your sleeves. And leave us your comments....

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The above is first draft of an essay you'll find in the 2010-11 TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook, an e-book that we'll be selling for $9.95 the day after the World Series ends. Last year it was 151 pages of analysis on all the free agents and trade targets that included identifying JJ Hardy as the #1 trade target of the Twins. This year it will be even better, plus, we're promising early delivery and extra content to anyone who pre-orders this week.

Now, the bigger news: because we want to reward our readers who stop by day-after-day, we're selling it at half price to the first 500 people who pre-order it. It couldn't be easier to order. Just swing by TwinsCentric.Blogspot.com for all the details, including how you can download last year's version absolutely free so you can see what you're getting.

Finally, thank you for all your support this season. I'll be here throughout the offseason, obsessing about the Twins and baseball just like you, talking baseball almost as often as I wish I could. I hope you'll come and visit often.

Get Out of The House!

...or, if you're a blogger, your parents' basement. :-)

Win or lose tonight, you're going to want to be with other Twins fans. The TwinsCentric gang will all be at Park Tavern (St. Louis Park) tonight to either celebrate or commiserate, and we would love meet up with you before this season ends. They're promising us some happy hour specials, too. We'll see you between 7:00 and 7:30.

Felt Like A Win

Boy – it sure felt like a win. This was what you want. Actually, this is what you want any number of ways. Let’s count them, shall we?

1. Sabathia’s up to his old tricks, hitting a prime target on the Twins to send a message. (Not just a prime target, by the way, but an ex-teammate.) And instead, it backfires, as a Twins team leader gets his pound of flesh – times two. Not that Jabbathia would miss a few pounds of flesh.

2. Liriano messes up exactly the way he shouldn’t mess up – by walking the anemic-hitting Brett Gardner. Then, with Gardner running on the pitch, Jeter singles to left field but Gardner can’t advance to third because of the respect he needs to show to Delmon Young’s arm. Liriano induces three outs from the middle of the Yankees order as Target Field sways with … what exactly? Excitement? Passion? Those words capture the emotion, but not the force. I’m going to go with: Will. If Gardner takes the extra base, a run scores. Instead, the Yankees road gaffe saves the Twins a run.

3. Because Jabbathia has trouble oozing all the way to first base, Orlando Hudson manages to go first to third on a ground out to first base. A few pitches later he scores on a wild pitch. Another run that sloppy baseball cost the Yankees. The Twins coast through innings four and five with a 3-0 lead.

4. The second batter in the sixth inning, Mark Teixeira, doubles, but that’s what Teixeira is supposed to do against left-handers. The formula for survival is simple – take care of ARod, who is anemic against lefties. Then, limit the damage until you get to the latter half of the Yankees order. This is how any professional left-handed pitcher approaches this situation. It is nothing that the Twins ace cannot handle.

5. The collar has tightened. The game is 3-2 on a hit by Jorge Posada that cleared Orlando Hudson’s glove by ¾ of an inch. But now Curtis Granderson and his .215 career batting average against left-handers is up against Liriano, the Twins ace left-hander. The bleeding will be stopped, and the bullpen should be able to hold it from there, right?

6. The game is tied, the bases are loaded, and CC Sabathia has shown just how tired he is - throwing eight of his last nine pitches out of the strike zone. He’s facing a right-handed hitter that has hit .304 in the second half of the season, with a .363 on-base percentage. And of course, Target Field is as loud as it can get.

By the way, for those of you laying blame, don’t underestimate the damage that Hardy did in this game. Yes, he had a double early and displayed his solid defense. But in this at-bat, he watched (appropriately) strike one. Then Sabathia threw four straight pitches out of the strike zone, just like he had done for each of the previous two batters. And Hardy struck out on them.

7. The game is tied going into the last three innings, which means this game is going to be decided by the bullpens. Perfect. What’s more, the Twins best reliever also gets to face the top of the Yankees order, including two guys who have struggled against right-handers like him. That is exactly the match up the Twins were hoping for.

8. The Twins are down, but there are runners on first and second and Jim Thome strides to the plate – versus a right-handed pitcher? Yep. Because the Yankees had already used their only reliable left-hander, and because Young had singled off his the right-handed replacement, Thome was going to get his cuts against the Yankees third best right-handed reliever.

9. Against, the Yankees eighth inning setup man Kerry Wood, the Twins draw a walk and then luck out on an infield hit. Mariano Rivera isn’t warmed up yet, and so JJ Hardy gets his chance with speed on the basepaths.


Nine. That’s a nice number for a baseball game - but you could count more. Delmon Young’s fly ball to the edge of left field? Granderson’s double that was two feet short of a fly out? Teixeira’s home run that looked foul most of the way to the right field bleachers?

This felt like a win. And yet….

You might need to be a glutton for punishment to be a Vikings fan, but at least those losses only last three hours. A playoff series lasts days, and seemingly each day has at least a half dozen moments like these. Vikings fans at least get the band-aid ripped off fast. You’ve got to man up to be a baseball fan.

And you really, really, REALLY need to man up to be a Twins fan in the postseason. You’ve got a few hours left to prepare. Tonight let’s get something that does more than just FEEL like a win.

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Hey, you’re not done. There is LOTS more great baseball stuff today, and you might want to soak it in. One way or the other, there isn’t a ton of baseball left this year.

Seth goes over the highlights of last night’s game and his thoughts.

Tonight’s game is a lot earlier, giving you absolutely no excuse to join me in celebrating/ranting about the game afterward. I’ll be on the patio at Sneaky Pete’s, assisting Justin Gaard in a postgame call-in show on KFAN AM 1130. Come in, talk Twins, and join me for a beer afterward. After tonight, I think we deserve it, don’t you?

Postgame with the Twins Geek.

Immediately following tonight's game (like RIGHT after the final out), turn your radio to KFAN 1130 AM and we (you, me and the uber-talented Justin Gaard) be able to talk about the game. OR, if you're at the game, come on over to Sneaky Pete's, which is where we'll be broadcasting. OR, if you're not local, listen in on KFAN.com.

You can sleep when you're dead.

John

P.S. Yes, I still occasionally write. Tomorrow, I promise....

Twins Geek on Fox 9 Sports on Demand....

...and I'm sure you're demanding to watch me babble on for 30 minutes about Twins-Yankees, right? Right?

The Importance of Being a Jerk

Jerks win. If you doubt that, look around, or check out the ring on AJ Pierzynski's hand. And it turns out that a jerk is exactly what can win against the Yankees lineup.

Unlike their reputation, the Yankees lineup isn't stellar top-to-bottom. They are a roster full of aging player that are showing fault lines mixed with younger players finding their way. The key isn't to battle gallantly like David. The key is to be ruthless when you find yourself in the role of Goliath. Because you WILL find yourself in that role as you stride through their lineup. I'll show you:

1. Derek Jeter hasn’t hit right-handed pitching this year, popping just a 631 OPS against them. If you’re right-handed, this is when you're a jerk. Keep Jeter off the bases, because for the next two batters you're really not going to want him on base.


2. Swisher has great patience and prodigous power, and hits about the same versus left-handers and right-handers. But he's far from a prototypical #2 hitter. Make him put the ball in play. If he does get on base, let his “speed” clog the bases a bit, because Jeter isn't in front of him, right?


3. Again, this is where right-handers need to be jerks. Mark Teixeira hasn’t hit right-handers well this year hitting just .244 wiht a 799 OPS. If you have the misfortune of being left-handed, don't be afraid to pitch around him a little, because next up is...


4. Alex Rodriguez hasn’t hit left-handers this year, batting just .217.


5. Robinson Cano...ah....um....maybe kneecap him? What else do you do with a guy who hit .319 with 29 HR this year and hurt left and right-handers evenly? But cheer up, because things are about to look a lot brighter.


6. Jorge Posada – He can hit the ball hard, and he can work the count, but he’s hitting just .248 this year. Get ahead and make him swing at your pitch.


7. Curtis Granderson – He can’t hit left-handers. He has never hit left-handers. Keep that streak alive.


8. Brett Gardner – He will try and work a walk so he can run around the bases, but he cannot hurt you significantly with his lack of power. Challenge him.


9. Marcus Thames – His career on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers is .296. Go after him.
   

There is no magic bullet. It’s a batter by batter battle. Get the guys you’re supposed to get - be a jerk - so the damage is minimal when the Yankees get you.

The Plucky "Yankees"

If the season were to end today, the Twins would host a ballclub called the New York Yankees in the playoffs next week. The Yankees are a very established ballclub, but don’t be shocked that you’ve heard very little about them. Being based in New York, they are often overshadowed by the other attractions available in such a large city. Their players are also rather elderly, and thus sometimes treated by the New York media as something of an afterthought.

(You’re probably wondering – what is a Yankee? It basically means “An American,” like in Yankee Doodle. I suspect that in their ballpark – cleverly named Yankee Stadium – they play that song often, and with great pride, given that it was written during the adolescence of many of their players.)

As such, I thought it might be a good idea to introduce you to some of the “Yankees,” so you are at least familiar with their names prior to their probable early playoff exit.

The Lineup
The Yankees lineup includes several fellows who can hit home runs at the top of the order and a complete player smack dab in the middle. But limited resources and sentimental ties to the elderly make the bottom half of the order much easier to navigate.

Derek Jeter – Jeter is one of the “senior” players on the ballclub. His position of shortstop is largely honorary, as he clearly lacks the energy and youth to field the position adequately. The same might be said for his position atop the order, where his .267 batting average acts as a weight for the rest of the lineup to carry. However, he is much beloved by their provincial fans for his winning attitude. Think of him as a taller Nick Punto, though with perhaps less attention from the ladies.

Nick Swisher – Well, that’s an unfortunate last name, especially for a guy with 134 strikeouts this year. However, the plodding Swisher can hit the ball a long way when he connects, with 28 home runs this year. That is likely his preferred way to round the bases, as his under-tall and over-round stature limit his abilities on the basepaths and in the field.

Mark Teixeira – Teixeira struggled to find a team that could tolerate him earlier this decade, being traded away from teams in 2007 and 2008. However, he seems to have found a home in New York. He hits lots of home run – 33 this year, but is also a rather lumbering runner, and so the Yankees protect his defense by playing him at first base. He’s also struggled to make contact against right-handed pitchers, hitting just .251 this year. Good thing they only account for 2/3 or the league’s pitcher population.

Alex Rodriguez – Rodriguez found a home with the Yankees earlier this decade after essentially being rejected by the Boston Red Sox, though the Yankees made him move to third base before agreeing to take in someone of his advanced age (35 years old). Like many aging ballplayers, his ability to play baseball is showing signs of decline, but he is still very dangerous against right-handed pitching. However, he also plays against left-handed pitching - apparently the team doesn’t have the heart to insist on moving him to a platoon.

Robinson Cano – He’s athletic, young and a complete player. He’s the exception that proves the rule in this lineup.

Jorge Posada and Mike Cervelli – Jorge Posada was a wonderful catcher at the beginning of the millennium, but now the 39-year-old is allowed behind the plate mostly as a courtesy. The 24-year-old Cervelli is his exact opposite: young, defensive and overmatched at the plate. If you could combine the two, you would likely get a substance with neutral acidity, like water.

Curtis Granderson – Everything a team would want in a centerfielder, except that he has a history of looking lost defensively and can’t hit 1/3 of the pitchers in the majors (a .215 BA against LHP for his whole career).

The last two spots in the lineup are distributed among several lads who are either on their last legs (Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns) or players with part-time talent (Brett Gardner, Marcus Thames).

Tomorrow we’ll get to the starting rotation, which is top-heavy – in more ways than one – and touch on the unfortunate limits the Yankees deal with in their bullpen.

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If you’re looking for some extra Twins coverage, check out Seth’s Podcast from Monday night. It included the Twins minor league hitter and minor league pitcher of the year, as well as an entertaining interview with Jamie Ogden. I downloaded it last night and really enjoyed it.

Delicious

Ever wonder what a 800-word death rattle sounds like? This.

MVP Countdown

In a philosophy class we had a debate about cause and effect. The teacher told a story that went like this: a man is pushed off of a very tall building by Mark Buehrle. Midway down, as he passes a window, he is shot in the head by Hawk Harrelson. When the man hits the ground, he is pronounced dead. Who killed him?

The answer, of course, is AJ Pierzynski, because his evil knows not the limitations of time and space. But it’s the debate that is important. Who is most responsible for the ultimate outcome?

MVP debates are a little like that. You can evaluate the cause and effect any number of ways. If Cuddyer can’t play first base, does Thome have the impact he did? Are the dozen leads that Liriano handed over to the bullpen worth more than the 50 Jesse Crain helped preserve?

Recently I turned in my votes for the top 10 Twins MVPs. But I thought I’d go through my ballot with one of each player’s bigger games and some thoughts added.

#10 – Danny Valencia
9/1 vs. Tigers – In the bottom of the 10th, Valencia singles to drive in Michael Cuddyer and win the game 2-1

He’s hitting, he’s hitting in the clutch and his defense has been much, much better than advertised. Plus, he has signed my kid’s scorecard before a Twins game. Twice. Sucking up to the judge’s kid is always a very solid strategy, just like dancing with the hot bridesmaid’s niece. Heady ballplayer, that Valencia.

#9 – Michael Cuddyer
8/31 vs. Mariners – Cuddyer has two hits, two RBI, a run and draws a bases loaded walk that brings in the tying run in a 4-3 Twins victory.

His offense has been bad, and his defense is nowhere near Morneau’s standard. Of course, he’s also played out of position and been out there just about every damn day….

You know what – I’m not going to take a lot of crap about this pick. I can’t statistically quantify what a manager of a baseball team does to help it win, and I don’t sweat that. Why should I worry about statistically quantifying what a leader in the locker room brings? This is the manager’s choice for MVP, and he sees a hell of a lot more of that stuff than any of us do. And there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence to suggest that there is something going on behind the curtain. So Cuddy makes the list, and I’m not going to apologize for it.

#8 – Jim Thome
8/17 vs White Sox – After the White Sox grab a 6-5 lead in the top of the tenth inning, Thome hits a two run home run in the bottom of the tenth off left-hander Matt Thornton to give the Twins a 7-6 win.

9/6 vs Royals – The Flag Pole game.

What can be said that hasn’t been said? He’s the only guy that gets two big games on this list because signature moments follow this guy like crazy follows Mike Tyson. Gawd, but I’m looking forward to seeing what he is capable of in the playoffs.

#7 – Justin Morneau
6/4 vs. Milwaukee – Morneau homered to give the Twins an early lead, and then led off the eleventh inning with a double and eventually scored the winning run.

Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your leader in Win Probability Added (easily my favorite stat for evaluating an MVP) for the Twins hitters. That’s how big of a monster Morneau was in the first half of the season – that three months after he quit playing, only now is Mauer close to Morneau’s impact.

I’m going to say it – what the hell is going on with his head? Either we don’t want to pry, or everyone is keeping it awfully close to the vest, but how do we not know specifically what the deal is here? The day after this happened, we thought he might be out a couple of days. Instead it’s three months, going on eight? Is it asking too much for an explanation with some specifics?

#6 – Jesse Crain
9/14 vs. White Sox – Holding a slim 4-3 lead and with the bases loaded and one out, Crain strikes out Paul Konerko and Manny Ramirez. The Twins win the game and drop the Sox seven games back, essentially ending the pennant race.

Basically, I’d accept anyone above and including this spot being the MVP. It’s that close. It’s personal preference. Any other year, he’s in the top five, but this year is just too loaded. It’s not a knock, Jesse. You’re The Wizard of Oz in 1939.

#5 – Delmon Young
7/18 vs White Sox – Twins come back by scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth to win 7-6. Young has two hits, including a home run and the game winning single.

If the season ended at the end of June, Morneau would have been MVP. If it ended at the end of July, it would have been Delmon. His slump in August and the fact that I grit my teeth on any ball hit to left field is why he’s fifth on this list.

#4 – Brian Duensing
8/14 vs. Oakland – Duensing throws a complete game, three-hit shutout.

All he has done is everything the team has asked him to do. I feel like he’s been overlooked in this discussion. He was the best reliever in the first half of the year and a suitable replacement for Cliff Lee in the second half. I don’t know how he’s not winning this thing.

(And if you’re looking for futher proof, this is the guy that leads all Twins in WPA.)

#3 – Francisco Liriano
4/27 vs. Tigers – Liriano outduels Justin Verlander, pitching eight innings, giving up just four hits and no runs.

Remember this winter, when we got all excited about what Liriano was doing in the Dominican? He lived up to, and surpassed, the hype. What’s more he seems to be growing both as a pitcher and a professional in each start. Let’s give him the rest he needs and see how far he takes us. I think it will be pretty far.

#2 – Carl Pavano
7/17 vs. White Sox – Pavano throws a complete game in a 3-2 win over the White Sox and veteran Mark Buehrle.

Why Pavano over Liriano? Mostly to drive Nick Nelson crazy. But also because I would just rather have the extra 28 extra innings that Pavano provided than the four fewer runs that is the difference between their ERAs. I have no problem going the other way. For what it’s worth, Liriano has the better WPA score.

#1 – Joe Mauer
6/17 vs. Phillies – After trailing 9-4 entering the ninth inning, the Twins tie the game up on a two-out home run by Mauer. The Twins eventually win the game in eleven innings.

I cringe about making the default choice, but I despise people choosing the wrong guy just to be different. As recently as a week or so ago, I was touting others over Mauer, but upon reflection, he’s done it all. He’s hit like a fiend, been a difference maker in games (+2.58 WPA) and also brings the defense at a demanding position. It isn’t sexy, but Mauer is the team MVP.

Clinch!

I had tickets for today's game and so I'll admit - I was hoping the Twins would wait a day to clinch this thing. But the Twins did what the Twins have done recently - outlast inferior teams - and rode an eighth inning comeback to win adn drive the magic number down to one last night. Then the White Sox did what they have done recently - lose - and the AL Central was clinched. It's an event worthy of a couple of rushed notes.

Depth

Once again, depth proved to be the difference in the AL Central this year. The White Sox sprung leaks, were effective at filling them for a while, but ultimately were done when they couldn't effectively address their bullpen or lack of power. The Twins suffered injury after injury, including losing the leading candidate for AL MVP for the season, and still kept beating teams into submission.

Kudos

You want an MVP? How about Bill Smith? You read that correctly. Bill Smith - the GM of the Twins. Just look at the roll he and his management have been on.

Last year during and after the trade deadline, they acquired Carl Pavano ('nuff said), Orlando Cabrera (who was the Twins second biggest contributor over the last two months of last season with clutch hits) and Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay (who ended up being bullpen fixtures for the next 1.5 years.

In the offseason, he acquired the depth that delivered another division despite an enormous amount of adversity. When Morneau went down, there was Thome. When the the rotation struggled, there was Duensing, because he had been pushed out of the rotation by re-sigining Pavano. And Smith brought in two middle infielders to bolster a core of Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla and Brendan Harris. Without that depth, the middle infield is an issue all year because EVERY ONE of those guys spent time on the DL (except Harris, who was demoted and never recalled.)

And then, during the season, you have all the moves to bolster the bullpen. You can even throw in the fact that the Twins DIDN'T trade for Cliff Lee, who appears to be mortal.

I've had issues with individual moves (Capps-Ramos, cough, cough) but every one has 0 for 4 days. On the whole, it's been a remarkable run for Smith and his team.

Celebration

As I walked the dog last night, the Twins had won and the White Sox looked like they were going to mail in their eighth straight loss. (By the way, how awesome is it that Mark Buehrle's "L" crowned the Twins champs?) I came home detemined to go out and watch the clinch with some friends I knew who were at the game, but it was going to be a tough sell to The Voice of Reason. So I walk in the back door - and she is literally shoulder deep in half-baked cookies.

(Don't ask.)

TG: So, I'm thinking maybe we should join Bob, Kris & Than downtown to clinch.

TVOR: Have fun.

TG: No, I think WE should join...

TVOR: There is no way. Since 3:20 today I've been running around from school to dinner to piano practice to soccer practice to PTA and now I'm elbow deep in cookies so The Boy can....

TG: I'll get the kids up and to school in morning. You can sleep in.

TVOR: I'm IN!

So we told the kids (who were already in bed) that they were on their own. (Reaction: Eye roll from The Chatty Chatty Teen and exultation from The Boy.) We met the gang at MacKenzie's (awesome beer selection on on tap) and asked the bartender if he had Miller High Life - The Champagne of Beers. He not only did, he volunteered to put four tallboys on ice for us to chill until the White Sox completed their meltdown.

Yeah, we took him up on that offer.

We joined the rest of the bar in cheering every insurance run and every out - especially AJ's K. Then we watched former Twin Craig Breslow close out the game for our Twins and...

Thanks everyone for a great year. I can hardly wait another two weeks for the real season to begin.

Back to Reality on Home Field Advantage

There is a lot of talk about Home Field Advantage (with CAPITAL letters), and what the Twins should or should not sacrifice to get it. Let’s put this quickly in perspective.

Last night I tweeted that while Home Field Advantage would be nice, I doubt it’s that important. After all, the Twins lost 2 of 3 vs the Yankees at home earlier this year, and they lost 3 of 4 against Tampa Bay at home, too. And immediately, the stats guys want to talk about small sample size, because after all, that Twins are 48-23 at home.

But that’s the thing about small sample size – it’s in the eye of the beholder. If I’m talking to a Yankee fan, that 48-23 record is also a small sample size. Historically, home teams win about 55% of games vs. 45% that visiting teams win. So by playing at home, a team wins about 10% more.

Not that it matters much. The Twins aren’t too far off of that number right now. They have won 68% of their games at home and 53% of their games on the road. So they’re about 15% better at home. I’ll let you conclude which of those numbers – 10% or 15% – you trust more based on small sample size.

Note that isn’t a 10-15% increase in EVERY game. It’s a 10-15% increase in ONE game. That’s all the more advantage a home team ever gets – they never play more than one extra game at home during a series. Also, it’s not for the entire playoffs. It’s only for the ALCS (the 2nd round). The Twins have basically clinched home field advantage for the 1st round, and the World Series schedule was determined by the All-Star Game (which the NL won).

So the question is, would resting the position players and juggling the rotation increase the Twins chances of advancing in the playoffs more than having a 10%-15% advantage in Game 7 of the ALCS? (If, of course, you get there.)

Frankly, I can’t believe it’s even a debate. Home field advantage (lower case letters) might be fun to beat one’s chest about, but it’s not a particularly significant factor, and might be none at all.

Getting Past Defense

When you’ve studied baseball stats for a while, you become sensitive to the trends.....

(Continued at TwinsCentric blog...)

The At-Bat

If you love to watch baseball, you probably recognize the symptoms of a key at-bat. The pins and needles. The excitement/rage. You find yourself a matter of inches from the TV - or hiding behind a throw pillow. You understand, even as it is happening that this is the point at which a game, series, or even season can turn, for better or worse.

That biggest of at-bats has yet to arrive for the Twins, though last night had a doozy. But for the White Sox it was The At-Bat. And, like all the other big moments between the Sox and Twinst this year, it went the Twins way.

Crain
It's the bottom of the 7th inning, the Sox are behind by a single run at 4-3. They also have the bases loaded and one out, and are attempting to drive in a run for the 3rd straight inning. The Sox crowd recognizes it may be The At-Bat, and is on it's feet, urging the Sox to find a way to save their season.

Trying to stop them is Twins right-handed reliever Jesse Crain. Crain has been the Twins best reliever over the second half of the season, and it hasn't been particularly close. Mostly his resurgence has been due to a nastier slider that is complimenting his fairly straight fastball. He is the closest thing the bullpen has to a shutdown guy, and he's the closest thing they have to a strikeout pitcher against right-handed hitters.

He needs that strikeout acumen to clean up a mess that he didn't make. Matt Guerrier started the inning for the Twins, giving up two singles. Crain came in to try and stop a bunt, but White Sox shortstop Alexei Ramirez succeeded in sacrificing himself so the runners could advance to second and third base.

It looked like Crain had already succeeded in getting the second out against the next batter, #3 hitter Alex Rios. With the count at 2-2, he had throw two consecutive pitches to Rios that tickled the outside edge of the strikezone, but home plate umpire Brian O'Nora refused to raise his hand, and Rios got a free pass to first. Now Crain is looking for a strikeout, pop out, double play....anything that will keep the tying run from scampering home from third base.

Konerko

In some ways, the White Sox have exactly who they want at the plate. Paul Konerko is undoubtedly the White Sox MVP this year, posting big stats (.324 average w 36 HR) and putting them up at big times. Two days earlier he led a comeback from a 6-2 deficit in what was almost an elimination game by hitting two home runs. That's almost typical for Konerko this year. In this game he had a walk, a single and a triple in his first three at-bats.

About the only things he hasn't done well? First, he hasn't hit with the bases loaded this year. He was 1 for 7 with a walk, three strikeouts and a double play to his credit. Second, he hasn't hit Crain. He entered that at-bat 2 for 16 with two doubles and 8 strikeouts. Of course, he doesn't need a hit here. He just can't strike out.

Pitch 1
Crain slips or oversteps or something, and ends up with a delivery that looks terrible and a pitch that is worth nothing. It is a fastball low and away, not even close. It doesn't tempt Konerko, it doesn't set up another pitch, and it doesn't send a message unless that message is supposed to be "I'm losing it."

It was bad enough that I tweeted that Crain was losing his composure after not getting the strike call on the two previous pitchers. Fortunately, I was wrong, and he would show that to me over four of the next five pitches.

Pitch 2
A little spooked by that first pitch, it's time for something else, and the only other "else" Crain really has is the slider. (Crain would end up throwing 20 pitches this inning - 11 sliders and 9 fastballs.) He pokes the outside lower corner of the strikezone with it, gets the call from O'Nora, and serves notice to Konerko that this at-bat has now really begun.

Pitch 3
Within every Season, every Game, every At-Bat, is there always The Pitch? If so, this was it. Crain throws another fastball, and again it's wild, but this time it's wild in exactly the way you don't want. Aiming low and way, Crain throws it....right down the middle of the plate. That's Konerko's "hot zone." Hell, that's everyone's hot zone. (According to Inside Edge, Konerko hits .417 on pitches right down the middle.)

Konerko connects, but fouls it straight back. That means his timing was dead on; he just swung the bat a little off-center of the ball. Instead of a game-tying smack, he finds himself down in the count 1-2, and needing to swing defensively.

Pitch 4
If you're looking for proof after that last pitch that Crain is regaining his composure, it comes on the next pitch. Mauer and Crain opt for another fastball on the inside edge of the plate. That's the kind of pitch that most hitters, including Konerko, can yank into the right field bleachers. But Crain gets it inside just enough keep Konerko from catching up to it. It's fouled off behind the plate, too.

Pitch 5
Enough living dangerously. Time to go back to that outer half slider, especially when it's slower speed has been set up by throwing consecutive fastballs. Crain makes almost the exact same pitch he did for strike one, only a little further outside, probably too far outside to be called a strike. But Konerko has seen that pitch once, needs to respect it, and swings to foul it off and stay alive.

Pitch 6
The one constant in this at-bat to Konerko has been changing speeds. Pitch 1 was a fastball, pitch 2 was slower, and pitch 3 was a fastball again. Pitch 4 was a fastball, but on the inside edge of the plate so the swing needs to start even earlier. Then pitch 5 was another slower slider.

Pitch 6 continues that trend, going back to a fastball. Crain finally makes the pitch he has twice missed during The At-Bat. His fastball hums over the outside edge of the plate, dangerously up in the zone, but up far enough that Konerko swings under it. The At-Bat is over.

So is the White Sox season, seemingly. Next up is Manny Ramirez in an at-bat that has some drama, but Manny is nowhere near the player that Konerko is this year. He proves it, watching Crain's outsidish slider get called for two strikes before swinging vainly at it (when it is a couple of inches outside) for strike three. He simply has no answer to that pitch.

The next inning the Twins break the game open versus the White Sox bullpen, creating an anti-climactic ending. Those runs come against the same relievers who would've pitched if the White Sox tied the game or took the lead, but that doesn't change the importance of The At-Bat. The Sox had their chance to change the course of the game, the series and the division, and weren't able to do it. It would take another half inning for the stands to start emptying, but the season was over.

------------------

A Geek Note
You might be surprised that the stats support how big an at-bat that was.

Before Konerko's at-bat, even though they were down a run, the White Sox had a 56.4% chance of winning that game, based on history. By the end of Konerko's at-bat, it was down to 41.2%. By the end of Manny's at-bat, it was down to 25.8%. According to Win Probability Added, Crain was the most valuable pitcher by a long shot last night. And Konerko, despite his earlier contributions, ended up providing a very slight negative value overall on the night, due to that one at-bat.

But you probably didn't need the stats to tell you that.

Vegas Votes: Gardenhire

It's easy to forget how sure we were of things six months ago. But looking back can change our perspective a bit...

Remember how Seattle was going to contend in the AL West? How the Orioles were finally going to surge out the basement of the AL East? And how the Twins were going to be in a dogfight with the White Sox and Tigers - and that maybe none of them would end with a winning record?

Yesterday, the Twins won their 85th game while still having nineteen games left to play. I vaguely remember something about PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' player projection system, saying that the the Twins would top out around 80 wins. But I'd forgotten that the White Sox and Tigers were also supposed to have about that many wins, too. And wasn't Cleveland also supposed to be in the mix, maybe a couple of games back?

Unfortunately, I can't go back and evaluate that because I can't find those projections anywhere (If anyone still has a link to those projections, I'd love to see it.) However, I did do a story a little over six months ago on Vegas Over/Unders, so let's take a look at those and see how Vegas did, and how many wins each team has won so far.

AL West

Angels - Vegas 84.5, Actual 70
Rangers - Vegas 84.5, Actual 80
Mariners - Vegas 83.5, Actual 55
A's - Vegas 79.5, Actual 71

Vegas was right that the Rangers were legitimate, and even ended up underestimating them a bit. And Vegas just about nailed the A's. Nice job, degenerate gamblers. But there are two teams that really surprised, and not in a good way.

Like everyone else, the Mariners massively disappointed the over/under. As negative as I've been about them (starting back in January), even I said that I thought the Vegas estimate of 83.5 wins seemed about right. It wasn't close, and neither was PECOTA, which means we somehow all missed the boat. Either we're all very stupid, or just about everything went wrong for that team this year and we should give them a little bit of a break.

Or, of course, they are massively incompetent. Like, so incompetent their CEO would send out a letter blasting the local media to all his employees. Nah. That would just be crazy.

The other big miss was the supposed division leader, the Angels, who likely will fall quite a bit short of that number. Last March, I wrote:

By the way, if you're a big Baseball Prospectus PECOTA guy, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is. PECOTA states that the Angels should win about 76 games this year, or 8.5 games less than Vegas. It's the biggest spread between PECOTA and Vegas in the American League. Bet the "under" and double your money.

And for the record, I wouldn't touch that "under" bet with a 10 ft pole. The Angels won 97 games last year, and now we think they're going to win just 84? And PECOTA thinks they'll lose an extra 21 games this year?

I hope the BP faithful took my advice and ignored my mocking tone, because you would have doubled your money. PECOTA might very well end up closer than Vegas to the Angels final number. Are we really not talking about the fact that the Angels are going to lose almost 20 games more this year than last year? That seems like something worth diving into.

AL East

Red Sox - Vegas 94.5, Actual 79
Yankees - Vegas 94.5, Actual 87
Rays - Vegas 89.5, Actual 86
Orioles - 73.5, Actual 55
Blue Jays - 71.5, Actual 73

Vegas is going to end up being close on the Yankees. Both Vegas and PECOTA picked the Red Sox to win that division, but given the injuries that team went through, it isn't shocking if they end up a half dozen game below their projection. Those half dozen wins are going to the Rays instead, and it's not shocking that they would have been underestimated by Vegas. It's not like they're going to draw the fan money that the Yankees and Red Sox will.

The Orioles look like the Mariners - just everything went wrong. I'd be shocked if anyone thought they would be this bad. They used it as an opportunity to bring in Buck Showalter, who is going to look like a genius next year when they undoubtedly do better.

This year's Blue Jays team is better than last year's Blue Jays team, and I didn't see that coming, but maybe I should have. Last year's Blue Jays team outscored their opponents by 27 runs, but managed only 75 wins and 87 losses. This year's has outscored opponents by 20 runs, and has a 73-70 record. The surprise is that this team didn't slip much after losing Roy Halladay and Alex Rios. This would seem to also be worth studying a bit. After all, they're one of only two American League teams that have already passed their "over."

AL Central

Twins - Vegas 83.5, Actual 85
White Sox - Vegas 82.5, Actual 79
Tigers - Vegas 80.5, Actual 72
Indians - Vegas 74.5, Actual 58
Royals - Vegas 71.5, Actual 58

And the other one is your Minnesota Twins, but let's get back to them in a second.

Give credit to Vegas on Detroit, who is going to be very close to that number. Misfiring on the Indians and Royals suggests a gambling axiom I might want to try out: pick the consensus worst team in the division and bet the under. Odds are, with an unbalanced schedule, they'll be pretty bad.

The White Sox surprised everyone, including themselves, with their surge over the last few months. I wonder if we'll give them enough credit for it, or if we'll decide it was fluky. I'm leaning towards the latter. In fact, I kind of feel even they think it was fluky. Do you really pick up Manny Ramirez's $4M contract otherwise? Isn't that a classic "short window of opportunity" move?

But let's get back to the Twins. PECOTA had them below .500. Vegas had them eking out a division crown, but only by outlasting a bunch of other mediocre teams. It had them finishing below the Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers and tied with (blink. blink.) the Mariners. They will overachieve to the tune of 10 to 15 runs over expectations, both over the money guys and the stat geeks.

Oh, and they did it with their leading MVP candidate missing the entire second half of the season with a concussion. So it's not like they lucked out with injuries.

I don't agree with a lot of the arguments I hear claiming Ron Gardenhire should be this year's AL Manager of the Year. I don't think this is his best year. I also don't think he should get it because he's finiahed second so many times. And I certainly haven't agreed with him on all aspects of his logic or style.

But manager of the year is usually awarded to the team that overachieves the most. And if we look at what we really thought back in March, whether via stats or wise guy intuition, that team is the Twins. They are going to win their division. They are going to do so because of an awesome second half. And they not only are blowing expectations away, but are outdistancing another surprisingly good divisional rival.

If we look at the overall results, and we're honest about what we thought six months ago, it seems pretty clear: Ron Gardenhire deserves this year's AL Manager of the Year.

The Monetary Case for Urgency

Today's post is over at the Star-Tribune's TwinsCentric blog. I'd post it here, too, but blogger and the way they handle tables just makes me so mad I think I'll pass. Please click over and tell me what you think.

Thanks,
John

More Than Money

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that he’s become one of our most beloved Twins in less than a year. Truthfully, we loved him long before that. We loved him as he was making Rick Reed look forward to retirement. We love him when he was popping souvenir after souvenir above the baggy. We loved Jim even when we hated Jim.

And now that Jim Thome has crushed 22 homers, got on base at a .400 clip, and saved a season jeopardized by the absence of Justin Morneau? Yeah, we still love him. But we’re probably going to need to get over that.

The knee-jerk reaction will be that it’s about money, and while fans want to believe there is more to things than money – well, they're absolutely right. And that’s why the Twins and Thome are destined to separate.

One of the bigger myths in baseball is that it is easy to find a productive designated hitter. The stats don’t support that. This year, the combined OPS of all designated hitters in the American League is 754. That’s lower than left fielders (763) and a lot lower than right-fielders (792) or first basemen (also 797). Full time effective DHs seem like they would be easy to find, but if they are, where are they?

Meanwhile, Jim Thome’s OPS is 1042. Now that is unquestionably because he ISN'T a full time DH. He's being given favorable matchups, and he's being given enough rest to keep him healthy for a full season. And to Thome's credit, he seems to recognize this. According to Buster Olney this weekend (sorry, you need a subscription to read the whole thing):

"What Thome has learned is that it's better for him not to play every day at age 40. He signed with the Minnesota Twins to be a part-time player this year, and he tries not to do too much when it's his off day; the rest that he gives his body is part of the preparation for when he does play."

Of course, it isn't clear that Thome really had the option to play every day last year. The DH market tightened in a hurry, leaving guys like Thome and Jermaine Dye standing without a chair when the music stopped.

It's hard to believe that would be the case this next year. Clubs will still remain cautious given his injury history and age, but do we really think another contending club - the White Sox, Rays and Angels immediately spring to mind - won't offer Thome 500 at-bats as their designated hitter, and money to match it? And do we really think Thome would turn that down, even with his new "don't play every day" philosophy?

Those at-bats are not something the Twins can match, and it doesn't have much to do with money. And, frankly, given what we have seen this year, I would argue that they Twins shouldn't match it - that Thome really can't be expected to be productive through a whole year with those demands place on him and his body. Even with the injury to Morneau, Thome still has just 241 at-bats this year, and he'll finish with less than 300.

It's nice to think that Thome could come back next year, because this year has been such a great fit. But neither the rest of the league or Thome are going to be able to help themselves. The Twins and their fans will need to look for someone else to love in 2011.

Empty

One can make a pretty good argument that the winner of the AL Central is consistently the team with the most depth. When we prognosticate, we focus on starting pitching, the lineup and the bullpen, and that's as it should be - it's silly to award a division to the team with the best 26th guy. But year after year, it seems like the team that weathers the storms the best, whose bench and high minors guys fill the cracks that need filling, wins the AL Central.

I think that same thought every year, and it applies this year too. The Tigers fell off the map when their young guys stopped hitting. The White Sox have flailed for the last month, desperate for bullpen help and that extra bat that can play DH. Meanwhile the Twins have that extra bat (Jim Thome), the bullpen guy that saved the rotation (Brian Duensing) and a rookie that is becoming one of the more valuable Twins (Danny Valencia). And they've been fairly aggressive in adding depth this season with the acquisitions of relievers Matt Capps, Randy Flores and Brian Fuentes.

But the need for depth has been building lately, and in last night's 10-9 loss, the areas hit hardest were all on display.

Infield - About two months ago, I was gong to write a story on how exceptional the Twins infield defense has been. It would look silly now. The Twins lost last night largely on their inability to turn double plays - by my count they missed somewhere around 23 of them. JJ Hardy can't throw the ball to first base on the fly more than 50% of the time, and we'll let his bad wrist be his excuse. Hudson can't pivot, and we'll let his foot be his excuse. And Casilla is sometimes brilliant but mostly maddening and we'll let Nick Punto's hamstring be that excuse.

Meanwhile, Michael Cuddyer might as well add "catcher" to his resume, since he's being asked to field so many throws in the dirt. That said, it sure would be nice to have Justin Morneau's glove back at first base during this stretch, for two reasons. First, because he's pretty darn good at that sort of thing. And second, because he might be more willing to rip some of these guys a new piehole for consistently making him field that junk.

Power - Speaking of Morneau, as the Twins faces one of the premiere left-handed pitchers in the game last night, their top three left-handed sluggers (Morneau, Thome and Jason Kubel) were all hurt or mostly unavailable. The result? The Twins managed 15 hits - and they were all singles. This team is back to being The Piranhas, except that a good chunk of that feisty school of teeth are either hurt, gone or just plain slow.

Bullpen - But it's hard to rip the offense too much when they scored 9 runs in a game started by Justin Verlander. Last night's loss is mostly about the bullpen, and specifically about a strange reluctance the front office has shown all year.

It's fairly well documented exactly how much Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are being overused this year. I count Guerrier being used 18 times in the last 31 games and Crain being used 21 in the last 33 games, both of which tally to about 100 games per season pace. Sure enough, last night they were the guys on the hill blowing leads, but it's hard to blame them.

For that matter, it's hard to blame Ron Gardenhire too much, too. He's consistently lost options in the 'pen this year, whether it was moving Duensing to the rotation, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares (and Pat Neshek) getting hurt or Alex Burnett sucking. Last night you could add Fuentes and Capps to the N/A list with various ailments. So when Scott Baker went down with an injury after just a few innings, even Jeff Manship's reliable (and durable and increasingly critical) arm wasn't enough.

Gardenhire was missing several bullets out of his six-shooter last night, and one needs to ask why that is when it's September 2nd. It continues a trend we have seen all year. For some reason, the Twins don't trust the relievers at AAA-Rochester, and sure as hell don't want to rely on them, despite impressive numbers. Instead, the front office has done just about everything they could do, including trading away top prospect Wilson Ramos, to not rely on them.

That changes tonight, as the Twins try to address a brand new deficit. Remember a couple of days ago we were wondering what the Twins might do with an extra healthy and effective starting pitcher? No more. As of 8:00 this morning, we have no idea who from the Twins will start tonight's game, but the answer appears to be: nobody. Or at least not a starting pitcher. Those maligned guys in Rochester's bullpen that we have been hesitant to trust with a 4-run lead are coming up to piece together a start against the AL West leading Texas Rangers.

Late update: Oops. It looks like Seth broke the news late last night that the starting pitcher will be Matt Fox, who has been starting and relieving in Rochester this year.

Goofy? Yep. Misguided? Maybe. But desperate times call for desperate measures. And even a team that has been relying all year on it's depth can eventually run empty.

The Real Danny Valencia

So for two years, I’ve questioned Seth Stohs about his Valenciatic Crush. For two years I argued that he was overhyped. And then on Tuesday night I found myself tweeting this during a crucial at-bat:

Is it wrong to be thrilled Valencia is up in this position? If it is, I don't wanna be right.

Again, that was TUESDAY night, not last night. And Valencia rewarded my faith with a clutch hit, just like he did last night when he hit a walk-off single to lead the Twins to a 2-1 win over the Tigers.

So, was I wrong? Have I seen the light?

Well, pretty clearly, I was, because I didn’t expect this much success this soon. (Here are his minor league stats.) Last year in Rochester, Valencia has 37 strikeouts compared to 8 walks, and so I wouldn’t have anticipated much early success from someone who was having trouble reading pitches. I also wouldn’t have expected a 819 OPS in the majors from a guy who posted just a 720 OPS this year in AAA.

What worried me the most about Valencia was his age. He turns 26 years old this month, which is old for a prospect. (For instance, he's older than Delmon Young and about the same age as Alexi Casilla.) But we’ve explored that question on my blog before, and third baseman often end up being a little older, for whatever reason. Corey Koskie, for instance, also debuted as a 25-year-old, and that was a September cup of coffee.

But I was wrong about more than just his age. Valencia’s glovework isn’t at Koskie’s level, but it’s solid, and Ultimate Zone Rating is pegging him as having saved 5 runs over the average major league third baseman this year, and that’s in less than half a season.

He’s also already made adjustments at the plate. When he first came up, he was a dead pull hitter. He still is, but now he’s hitting it with authority, and at least using the center of the field effectively. That’s a real positive adjustment.

Finally, he just seems really happy to be here, soaking it in, having the right attitude. I’ve seen him signing autographs before the game, he is smiling in the dugout, he just doesn’t look like he’s taking this for granted. It’s good to see.

So who is Valencia? I’m still not convinced he’ll ever be an All-Star, but he could be Koskie, only right-handed and without the golden glovework. That would be fine with me and likely with the Twins since he could be around through at least 2016. I’m guessing that would be fine with Valencia too, because Koskie made about $26M over the course of his career.