I Was Promised Superstar

And they were offended in him. But Jesus said unto them, A prophet is not without honour, save in his own country, and in his own house.

- Matthew 13:57

I gotta admit - I love quoting Jesus whenever I'm going to do a story on Joe Mauer. I think I'm going to do it from here on. I can't help it.

On one of my favorite national baseball bulletin boards, a debate broke out about Mauer and his injury. And it was between two of my favorite local contributors. (I'll be paraphrasing a little...)

F: Except for being made of glass and no power, Mauer's a heckuva superstar.

H: Man, the guy is 25 years old and has won 2 batting titles, and people in this town ride him like a rented mule. He's a GREAT defensive catcher, works like a dog, and is a hell of a teammate, according to everything I've heard. If I was him, I'd play out my contract, sign a mega deal, and tell everyone in this town to kiss my ass.

And BTW, the last four years his at bats were 489, 521, 406, and 536. So he was basicly healthy for 3 of those seasons, and played most of the other.

F: I was promised superstar.

H: And you got one...you just don't appreciate it...

And here you have the dueling local views of Joe Mauer wrapped up quite nicely. 'H' reflects on what Mauer has done. While 'F' looks at what he hasn't...

F: He's a nice player...an allstar but I'd have a real hard time spending Yankee/Red Sox money on a guy who might have peaked at 23. I admit it, I expected more.

H: You're buying into that Barreiro "Baby Jesus" crap. The kid is 25, he's one of only 3 catchers in history to win a batting title, and he's won two of them. The other guys who won (Ernie Lombardi who won 1 during the war years, and Bubbles Hargrave) didn't even have the 3.1 per game at bats that's required today. He's had 2 OBP's of over .400 in the last 3 years, and as I already said, he's a great defensive catcher.

You may think that he's already peaked, but you really have nothing to base that on...what did you expect out of the kid anyway?

F: Expect? Improvement, not regression. If he didn't peak in 2006 then he's due for a damn nice season soon because the last two have been clearly a step down from 06'. And now with injury concerns already for 2009 he'll be lucky to not give back the slight improvement from 07'.

Considering I would have chosen Mauer as the MVP last year, I'm a little surprised to see that 'F' is right - Mauer's rate stats from 2008 weren't as good as his rate stats in 2006. But what is really driving the doubters is, of course, the power....

F: Even Baseball Prospectus dropped the hint this year that he's got some work to do to avoid being a lefthanded Jason Kendall. Through age 25 they are basically the same guy with a bat. It's inconclusive as to what direction Mauer goes from here.

H: F, take a look at Kendall's career. Saying a guy was basically the same as him through age 25 is actually not a bad thing at all, in fact it's a pretty awesome thing. Hitting about .320/.400/.475 or so as a catcher is pretty rare. Of course maybe you were expecting Piazza II, but then Mauer can actually catch.

F: Agreed. I think the point though is that expectations of "greatness" might have to be replaced with expectations of very good (plus premature cratering like Kendall the longer he catches). And you're right, I think some of "us" expected Piazza-ish seasons at some point. Another test subject to help prove that darn few players actually develop power just because they project to have it down the road.

It's mostly about the power, or lack therof. As a guy who lost a meal when Mauer failed to hit double-digit home runs last year (and plans to make the same bet this year), I'm on record as believing it will come. Critics will point at a ground ball rate that will make power impossible. I'll point to a plate presence and swing that is so confident that I can't imagine him not being able to do anything he wants to.

But, of course, that's part of the frustration. It sure seems like Mauer should be able to hit for power, leaving critics to wonder if it just isn't a priority. I'll admit, that bothers me, even as a complete Mauer bobo. I'd love to see him try being more aggressive early in the count, even if it might cost a couple points of batting average and maybe another Silver Slugger.

But if the power doesn't come, one doesn't need to look too far into the past to find a superstar who also never developed the requisite power. Tony Gwynn averaged less than seven home runs during his playing career, but finished with enough raw stats and hardware to be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Looking at their career rate stats, Gwynn has a higher batting average, but Mauer gets on base more, and their slugging is almost identical. When Gwynn was 25 he had been mentioned on MVP ballots twice, but so has Mauer, and Mauer has placed higher. At 25, Gwynn had won one Silver Slugger, but Mauer has two. Both are know as classy, pleasant guys who love the game. And Mauer certainly adds a tremendous amount of defensive value that Gwynn never could claim.

Gwynn won six batting titles, compiled 3141 hits, finished one year batting .394, and played his whole career with one team. Those are the key elements that gave him his HOF ticket and superstar status. Mauer may do none of those, but alternately none appear out of reach. Even if nagging injuries eventually force him to stop catching, it's not like he can't play a less crucial defensive position. Like, say, right field, where Gwynn played for twenty years.

But even if he does, I wonder if the debate will subside. I suspect not, or at least not as long as he continues to play in this market. After all, you know what they say about a prophet in his own land....

Baker's Ship Comes In

Reports are that the Twins and Scott Baker have signed a four-year contract with a team option for the fifth year. Congrats Scott, and congrats Twins! I'd speculated on this back in January, but the Twins generally like to wait until spring training to offer long-term deals to their pitchers (but will sign hitters to long-term deals during the offseason). Last year was a great example, where they signed Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer before Twinsfest, but waited until spring training to ink Joe Nathan to guaranteed money.

And in this case, it looks like the Twins got a heck of a deal. Back in January, when writing about signing various players to long-term deals, here is what I wrote about Baker:

Scott Baker
There was plenty of talk last season about Liriano and his service time, but the guy on the roster who was closest to arbitration but missed was Baker. He started the year with 1 year and 128 days of service time, and I’m pretty sure he was on the 25 man roster or DL for the whole year, so he finished with about 2 years and 128 days. “Super 2” arbitration usually kicks in somewhere between 2 years and 130 to 140 days. I wonder just how close he was?

Baker’s salary over the next four years closely mirrors Liriano’s. He isn’t the injury risk (in my mind) that Liriano is, so a lower per year salary with a longer deal makes more sense. Four years, $18 million, and a team option on the fifth year ($12M?) with a $2 million buyout seems fair. Congratulations Scott, your ship has come in.

The Twins and Baker agreed to a deal for roughly $5 million less than I had proposed. That's a nice deal for the Twins. And considering that he's the guy walking away from the bargaining table with $15.25 million, that's a nice deal for Baker, too.

Next up? Hopefully Liriano. Here's what I wrote about him in the same story:

Francisco Liriano
You can argue whether Liriano or Scott Baker should be the top long-term target on the roster. Either way, these two players are better fits for a long-term deal than the Twins have had for several years. They’re both relatively proven, they’re both a year away from big money, and they’re both high-ceiling players.

The only issue that might scare the Twins about Liriano – his health – is exactly the reason a long-term deal is probably so attractive to him. And after just missing arbitration last year, he’s faced with one more year of a team-dictated salary before a giant raise. So now’s the time, for both him and the Twins.

Here, very roughly, is what Liriano and the Twins can expect his salary to be over the next four years if he remains healthy and goes through the arbitration process:

2009 – $0.5M
2010 - $3.5M
2011 - $7.0M
2012 - $11.5M
2013 – free agent
Total - $22.5 million through 2012

Repeat after me: The Twins essentially already have a contract with Liriano. It is for four years and (roughly) $22.5 million. That's going to be the case for all these guys, and it’s the best kind of contract because they can renew it yearly, meaning there is almost no risk to them whatsoever. For them to guarantee all of that money ahead of time, they to need to get something substantial in return.

In this case, that something had better include at least one year of free agency. But the question for both sides is how long will they want to commit? If the Twins trust him to stay healthy, the longer the better. But if he comes down with an elbow injury next June, just how long do the Twins want to be on the hook?

Ideally, their offer would be for something like 3 years and $10M guaranteed, with team options for 2012 and 2013 at $11M and $13M respectively. Throw some guaranteed money buyouts ($1.5M?) for those last two years and Liriano is guaranteed $13M, even if he breaks down on March 15th. Given his arm issues, I would think he (and his agent) would have a hard time walking away from that.

The injury issue is a big one with Liriano, but I have faith that both sides can get creative and get something done. Especially given the market that the Baker deal set.

Phoning It In: Saturday's Blogger Get Together

Hey gang,

I won't be writing tonight. The season finale of Burn Notice is on (and I'm completely addicted to that show) and we should be going out to buy supplies for our new (and first) dog which should arrive tomorrow.

But I thought I should mention the blogger get-together at BW3 in Roseville on Saturday at 1:00. I really hope to be there, though now things are a little up in the air due some bad news we received. Still, odds are I'll be able to make it for a little while, and I'd love to meet old and new friends. Here are the details:

What: Twins Blogger Get Together
Where: Buffalo Wild Wings, in Roseville (Nick had the mapquest link on his site for location)
Time: Game time is 1:00.

Whispering Forgiveness

I haven’t spoken much about the steroid scandal in the seven years of this blog's existence. There’s a reason for that. And even if you’re as sick of the topic as I am, I hope you’ll grant me this day of indulgence.

You see, I want to start something, and today seems like as good a day as any.

The reason you haven’t heard any steroidal musings is because when news has broken, there have already been plenty of voices. Some have been indignant, some leering, some analytical, but they’ve been there, and they’ve been crowded, looking for ears.

That’s the temptation when looking over a mob. You look upon all those wonderful ears, sense the power, and search for the lever. But, of course, when the mob is also talking, that’s also the hardest time to be heard. Especially when you’re whispering.

So now, while the mob is silent, let’s whisper a while. Let’s whisper of forgiveness.

I’ll start by asking for some.

I have privately referred to efforts that ferret out steroid users as a witch hunt, which is as inflammatory a phrase as anything the mob has uttered. I was wrong. After some reflection, I don’t believe that, or at least not in the worst sense of the phrase. The tragedy of the Salem witch trials or McCarthy hearings wasn’t the fervor, it was that so many innocent people were accused, tried and punished. That is the tipping point of a witch hunt – when the zeal drives the mob from prosecuting the guilty to prosecuting the innocent.

So far, in the steroid scandal, that doesn’t appear to have happened, though I suppose Mark McGwire might argue that it has. It doesn’t appear that anyone will bother to prove that he was guilty, but that hasn’t stopped Hall-of-Fame voters from convicting and punishing him. But for the most part, the confessions surrounding steroid abuse seem to be genuine and not coerced. The various steroid investigations don’t appear to be a true witch hunt.

That doesn’t mean some of the uglier ingredients aren’t there. We can start with a mob fueled by envy. Like fans who view ballplayers as overpaid prima donnas. Or media members who suffer for a half-baked quote on a daily basis. Even ex-ballplayers who were born too early to share in this generation's riches.

The strongest indicator for the level of outrage directed at each ballplayer has been the height of their achievement before their confessions. Our volume, our venom and our demand for the goriest of details is in direct correlation with his fame. The bigger they are, the louder they fall.

We can add territorial desire. The commissioner’s office hasn’t been afraid to blame the players union for this entire fiasco. After all, that next Collective Bargaining Agreement is coming up in 2012. There’s no better time to start gathering public opinion real estate than right now.

And finally, there is a symbol of righteousness that justifies all kinds of ugliness, whether it’s a cross, or a flag, or the number 62. We attach ourselves to these symbols, and find ourselves conceding the moral high ground to whoever raises it high in the air. What’s more, it’s how we get the intelligentsia to buy into the discussion, prolonging the issue.

The answer to all of these is the same: forgiveness. Forgive the guilty for their weakness or greed. Forgive the innocent for turning a blind eye. Forgive the caretakers for their ignorance. Forgive the angry for their disillusioned rage.

And we can save a healthy dose of that forgiveness for ourselves, too. The steroid era is a market-driven phenomenon. We’re the ones who demanded more night games, and then looked the other way while ballplayers chomped down greenies, which are as illegal as any steroid. We’re the ones who tuned in to watch the home run races. We’re the ones demanding our team pay top dollar for free agents.

We’re also the ones approving grand juries. Tuning into congressional hearings. Relishing leaked confidential test results. And marching along with the mob, participating in the zeitgeist.

But we’re also the ones who can just as easily start forgiving. Just like we forgave baseball its labor battles, its segregation, and its gambling habit. We can do so without requiring public self-immolation. And we can do so softly, privately, to members of the mob, both when they’re yelling and when they are silent.

I’ll start. I haven’t spoken much about the steroid scandal in the seven years of this blog’s existence. Today seems like as good a day as any to start whispering forgiveness.

Endgame Mystery

We have a mystery. Let's see if we can solve it.

The bullpen's performance last summer fueled plenty of speculation about minor league alternatives. The most common names were relievers from Rochester, or closers from further down the ladder, like Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama. None of them were called.

Instead, when rosters were expanded in September, the Twins suprised us by promoting left-hander Jose Mijares from AA-New Britain. When asked about this, Ron Gardenhire mentioned the evaluations Mijares had drawn from those in the organization:

"Mijares was throwing the living fire out of the ball."

...

"Molitor told me midseason that he'll be in the big leagues before the year's out," Gardenhire said. "[Minor league pitching coordinator] Rick Knapp said that's a very good callup, well-deserved. ... I saw his fastball at 93-94 miles per hour."

But Gardenhire wouldn't see that 93-94 mile per hour "living fire" in a game until almost two weeks later. Mijares didn't appear in his first big league game until 9/13.

It wasn't for lack of need. During those two weeks, the team struggled, and they did so because the bullpen struggled. The Twins were swept by the Blue Jays, lost a series to the Tigers, and took two of three from the Royals. For four of the six losses, the losing pitcher was in the bullpen.

Was Gardenhire trying to protect Mijares? Gardenhire has often been criticized for not trusting young players enough, or protecting young players too much.

If that's the case, Mijares is an extreme case. Because not only didn't Mijares pitch in the six losses, he also didn't pitch in the three wins - and they were all blowout wins. The final scores of the Twins three wins during that stretch was 10-2, 7-1, and 7-2.

Were the Twins protecting Mijares arm? After all, he had broken his elbow and only had been pitching since the middle of the year. If so, they overcame their caution in a hurry. Over the second half of that month he was used ten times.

And that was because those reports Gardenhire had from the organization were dead on. About a week after his first major league game, he was already trying out for the eighth inning role that had eluded the Twins all year. He bridged a 4-1 win for Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan on Sept 21st. He was the first option for the rest of the season. He gave up just one run over his ten appearances.

So that's our mystery. Why wasn't he used earlier? There's no sign that health was the issue. Maybe Gardenhire was protecting him, or didn't trust him, but just how much trust does one need in a 10-2 game? Not using Mijares for the first two weeks of that month could be viewed as the biggest strategical blunder of the season. And it was done by a manager whose bullpen-building skills are often listed as his greatest strength.

Well, it might have something to do with the messages that the Twins have been sending Mijares' way since the offseason began. First, Mijares was cut from his winter ball team and received a very public message from GM Bill Smith. The Strib gives us the details:

But after suffering two playoff losses for Tigres de Aragua, Mijares had a rift with manager Buddy Bailey and walked out on the team, Twins officials confirmed Thursday.

Mijares, 24, returned to the Aragua team but only after skipping multiple games. Bailey didn't use Mijares again and soon cut him from the playoff roster, even though Mijares had posted a 1.40 ERA in 28 regular-season appearances for de Tigres.

...

"If he comes to camp thinking he's a lock for our bullpen, he'll probably be in Rochester after our first cuts," Smith said. "If he pitches the way he did in September, he has a good chance of making our club."

Hmmm, first cuts, huh? That sounds ominous, especially considering the reports that the already large-boned Mijares packed on some extra pounds this offseason.

But first cuts also seemed unlikely after learning that Boof Bonser would be out for the season. Or it would if the the Twins hadn't kept up the pressure. The news that they were talking with Juan Cruz would've created a roster crunch that would jeapordize Mijares spot on the 25 man roster.

Juan Cruz signed with the Royals this weekend, but the manager has also created some of his own drama by pondering entering the season with just an eleven-man pitching staff. With five starting pitchers, that would mean that one of the seven projected bullpen arms would be left behind. And Mijares is the only projected bullpen arm left with options.

Given the messaging that has happened so far this spring, it's likely the Twins started those messages back during the first days of a September call-up. Viewing an attitude or some behavior they didn't like, they sat a vital asset on the bench. Gave him a "time out" to think about how opportunity can be fleeting.

And perhaps we don't have such a mystery after all.

Spring Training Opener

Minnesota Twins baseball is ON THE BLOG!

(over exciting music) Twins Geek Baseball is brought to you by:
- MLB TV - A geek's new addiction.
- John's DVR - Friends? You don't need no stinkin friends!
- Advil - Because you're middle-aged, dummy.
- Mendota Springs Strawberry Sparkling Water - For when you're out of beer.

And

- The Voice of Reason™ - Widowed spring, summer and fall, since 1994.
(exciting music fades out)


Hello everybody, and welcome to Minnesota Twins Spring Training action! I'm your blogger, Twins Geek, and we're about to bring you eight full months of baseball action. Tonight the Twins will kick off their spring training season against the Boston Red Sox. I'm joined today by my partner, the Geek Chorus.

Thanks Geek. Very glad to be Morgan Mundane to your Steve Cannon.

1st Inning
Chorus, you gotta like what we see of Michael Cuddyer in this first inning. A rocket throw from right field to third base, a nice running catch, and a drawn walk in his first at-bat. Cuddyer has yapped a lot this spring about how hungry he is, and that actually raised some red flags in my mind, because I wondered if he wasn't protesting too much. But he looks determined and focused today.

Plus, we're almost ten minutes into the season and he's not hurt.

2nd Inning
A good innning. I'd like to say the Twins exploded for four hits and three runs but "explode" should be reserved for hits that clear the infield dirt. The Twins were awarded four hits, but the most legitimate was a blooper. It resembled a Friday night softball league.

Except that the softball team usually knows how to slide.

Yeah, Alexi Casilla easily stole second but decided to start sliding approximately 10 inches from the base. And that was the second worst slide of the inning. The worst was by Delmon Young at home, which was awkward enough to be painful.

Paging Dr. Molitor. Dr. Molitor to the third base line, please.

3rd Inning
Brian Buscher gets his second hit of the night, both of them pulled and hit hard down the first base line. I wonder, if the Twins carry 12 pitchers, whether he'll make the roster. After all, Ron Gardenhire loves to have two backup middle infielders on his roster, but he also loves having a left-handed bat on the bench.

I'm switching my stance from earlier in the offseason and saying Buscher is probably screwed. The problem is that if Gardy carries Buscher, he needs a second middle infielder. But if he carries a second middle infielder, he can often live without Buscher.

The guys who are most likely to be hit for in this lineup are Punto, Gomez and Casilla. Assuming Gomez is on the field, then either Span, Cuddyer or Young is on the bench, so he's taken care of.

The other two guys are middle infielders, and if you hit Buscher for one of them, then Brendan Harris needs to field for him. Now you've wasted Harris as a potential pinch hitter, and there is nobody to pinch hit for the other middle infielder. And if you pinch hit Harris, you can't use Buscher for the other middle infielder, because there is nobody left to field for him.

On the other hand, if Tolbert is on the roster, you can hit Harris for a middle infielder and still have Tolbert on the bench. Gardy can then pinch hit one of his outfielders and then bring in Tolbert. Got it?

Um, what's on second? I don't know.

Third base! Anyway, that's why I think Gardenhire is talking about only eleven pitchers. It would allow him a big enough bench to pinch hit three timee every game.

Plus, it would allow the team to send yet another message to Jose Mijares about respecting the game.

You mean beyond waiting until the middle of September to get him into a major league game when they desperately needed an eighth inning set up guy? Wasn't sacrificing a postseason message enough?

Apparently not. Have you seen him this spring? He reportedly looks like he ate Boof.

4th Inning
Joe Nathan gives up the first Red Sox run of the game, on a couple of hits and a passed ball that looked like he crossed up Mike Redmond. Here is the Twins nightmare scenario this year: Nathan gets hurt.

(knock, knock)

He's been answering the bell reliably for six solid years now, and that's feeling like borrrowed time. I have every confidence that Gardenhire and Rick Anderson can piece together a decent 'pen with some of their minor league talent by the middle of the season, because they have that much depth. But I don't see anyone replacing our Shaggy look-a-like.

Ruh-roh!

Fifth Inning
We see our first outing of Luis Ayala. He give up one baserunner, but on an error (I hope they ruled it an error) by Justin Morneau. I'm guessing he makes a good first impression on the Twins staff, becuase I count something like seven strikes and just two balls. Oh, and four batters, too. Those are the kind of statistics they're gonna love.

As opposed to fascist strikeouts.

Right. And I think that's going to have to do it for tonight, as the Twins have started subbing in players that only Seth and Roger recongnize. On behalf of my partner Geek Chorus, thanks for joining us tonight. The final score - the Twins 5 and the Red Sox 2. So long everybody!

Big Rocks

"If you can put a guy up there that has the capabilities of a Gold Glove and also a 25-30 home run guy, you have to take a chance. It's a good chance."
- Ron Gardenhire on signing Joe Crede as the Twins new third baseman.

In productivity seminars, there is a popular demonstration that involves trying to fit a bunch of rocks into a large tube. There are probably a half dozen large rocks, and probably a couple of hundred pebbles, and the challenge is to get them all to fit into the tube. The trick is to make sure you put the big rocks in first. Then you sort of shake it and let the small rocks flow around them. It's impossible otherwise.

Gardenhire's quote sums up the big rocks in this signing. The Twins signed a right-handed slugging third baseman who also happens to be a defensive whiz. The details - Crede's health, his career batting average, his struggles against lefties, and blocking Brian Buscher - are not as pretty. We'll hope that with the big rocks in place and a little shaking, these just end up being inconsequential filler.

It's fun to see the level of optimism this has inspired in Twins fans, and I wonder if it's warranted. So let's take a quick look at the rest of the third basemen in the American League, and see where Crede compares:

Group 1:The Cream of the Crop

Team	Player	OPS	Age
NYY	Alex Rodriguez	965	33
TB	Evan Longoria	874	23

Alex Rodriguez is the current king and Evan Longoria is the heir to the throne, and there really isn't a third baseman who is close. ARod is obviously more accomplished, but if both were granted free agency today, I'm not sure which would end up with the bigger contract.

Of course, that's not gonna happen. They are both controlled through 2017 and 2016 by their respective clubs. The difference? ARod will make $275 million over the life of his deal while Longoria will make $47.5 million. Ouch. You gotta love the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Group 2:Inspiring Envy

Team	Player	OPS	Age
CLE	Jhonny Peralta	804	26
SEA	Adrian Beltre	784	29

This is the reason that the Mark DeRosa trade was so much better for the Indians than it would have been for the Twins. Jhonny Peralta had bulked his way out of being a legitimate shortstop, and his replacement was playing second base. So even though it looked like they needed a third baseman, they really needed a decent second baseman. That much DeRosa can do.

And if you compare Crede's OPS(773), age(30) and defense(awesome) to everyone in this entry, the player he most resembles is Adrian Beltre. That's misleading, because Beltre plays in a monstrous park while Crede played in the White Sox hitter-friendly stadium. Crede is a clear notch below Beltre (even without his health concerns), so let's see if he falls any further down the list.

Group 3: May Still Have a Big Year In Them

Team	Player	OPS	Age
BLT	Melvin Mora	826	36
BOS	Mike Lowell	798	34
TOR	Scott Rolen	780	33
TEX	Michael Young	741	32
OAK	Eric Chavez	688	31

Take a look at the ages on all the guys in this entry for a second. I count just four guys under 30. Lately I've wondered if third basemen can better afford to reach the majors later in their careers, and there seems to be some evidence to support that. That would be good news for fans of Buscher(28) and Danny Valencia(24).

This group has a bunch of guys who are mostly solid, but are clearly on a downward trend. They are useful, but overlooked, and probably one bad contract year from struggling to find a job. I wouldn't take any one of them over Crede, given his extra youth, though it's close.

Group 4: Give It Some Time

Team	Player	OPS	Age
KC	Alex Gordon	783	24
CWS	Josh Fields*	772	26

The last two youngsters on the list. Alex Gordon was as hyped two years ago as Longoria was last year, but has stalled because he hasn't been able to figure out left-handers. Josh Fields looked like the White Sox third baseman of the future in 2007, lost his job to Crede in 2008, and then was hurt when Crede went down. But he's the reason the Sox were so willing to let Crede walk. (BTW, that OPS was in AAA last year.)

If the Twins had not traded for Crede, this group is where Buscher and Brendan Harris would've landed.

Group 5:Not Stereotypical, but an Asset

Team	Player	OPS	Age
LAA	Chone Figgins	685	30

Chone Figgins is an exciting player that was a lot less exciting last year when he was hampered by hamstring and elbow problems. That pitiful OPS doesn't reflect that he's capable of stealing 40-50 bases when healthy, and has enough plate discipline to be a dangerous leadoff hitter. He's not the type of third baseman the Twins need, but he's a great fit for a number of teams.

Group 6: Um......

Team	Player	OPS	Age
DET	Brandon Inge	672	31

I don't think you can totally write off the Tigers this year. After all, they still look quite a bit like the heavily favored team that entered last season. But they have some major question marks, like the bottom of their lineup. Inge is easily the worst starting third baseman in the American League - and he's probably batting seventh in that lineup. Yikes.

So where does Crede land? Let's give him sixth place. He probably belongs in the bottom of that second group, and I'm tempted to also put him behind Alex Gordon just because of his age. That's not great, but it's quite a bit better than the Twins looked 48 hours ago.

Plus, they didn't give up anything to get him, and god knows he's going to be motivated given his one year deal. We'll add those factors to our other big rocks, shake hopefully, and watch to see if they fit together nicely.

iPhone Blogging: More on DYoung

Hey gang, time for a quick experiment with the new iBlogger tool that I've just downloaded. Let's try some short takes with it....

- Seth over at Seth Speaks
got the definitive answer that Delmon Young does not have any options left. Which means that the info about a 'split' contract was essentially meaningless.

- Then, in yesterday's podcast with Seth, Pioneer Press beat writer Phil Miller suggested that the report about the 'split contract' probably came from an agent and not from the ballclub. I suppose it makes sense that an agent would reveal that in a sort of bitter manner, but it still begs the question: why would the Twins even use a split contract? They can't truly believe they'll be able to send him down. I suppose it could be because they want to send a message, but without any big stick behind that vague threat, the message could just as easily be interpreted as "We are angry but essentially impotent."

-Speaking of messages, on Seth's podcast last night Miller talked about the post-it note pad full of messages that the Twins have delivered Young's way this offseason, including at Twins Fest last month.

- Finally, I made an appearance on the podcast too last night. Seth pitted me against Nick Nelson in a battle royale over Joe Crede and the outfielder glut. Nick won, but I fought valiantly, like an older but much more handsome William Wallace. Oh, except I didn't impregnate his daughter-in-law, which would have been a nice touch.

Ok, I've officially started iBabbling, so let's wrap this up. Wish me luck. I'm about to try posting this......

Geek Confusion: Delmon Young's 'Split' Contract

Someone help a poor time-deprived blogger out here.....

Why the hell does it matter that the Twins offered Delmon Young a 'Split' contract?

A 'split' contract, for those who are wondering, is a contract that specifies the amount of money that a player makes in the majors and a different amount of money that they make in the minors. Publicizing the split aspect of this contract is in line with other rumors that the Twins have floated this offseason that seem intended to motivate Young, like him being traded, or him sitting on the bench.

But the real question, which I'm shocked that nobody is asking, is "Can they send Young to the minors?" Because previously, the answer seemed to be "Not unless they are incredibly stupid."

And usually, the Twins aren't. So what's going on?

Young, I thought, signed a major league contract back in 2003, which meant he was on the major league roster. So his three "options" were used by Tampa Bay in 2004, 2005, and 2006. To try to send him down would require him to clear waivers, which would NEVER happen.

If they can send him to Rochester, then we have a legitmately gripping story for spring training. Both he and Carlos Gomez seemingly could use some Triple-A seasoning, at least given the Twins philosophical leanings. If Young is protected by his lack of options, than Gomez is the leading candidate to miss out on a starting spot this spring. But if Young is also eligible to be demoted, then HE becomes the leading candidate.

Has anyone figured this situation out and can let a poor Twins Geek in on the secret?

Back of the Napkin: Twins Revenues, Part 1

What makes good writing? Opinions? Accuracy? Insight? Lots of question marks? Yes, yes, yes and absolutely yes. But Rule 1 is “Keep it entertaining.” And rule 2 is “There is no rule 2.”

Which brings me to why I'm writing: Rule 1 might be a problem today. But we’re gonna give it a try.

I expect Rule 1 is a good chunk of the reason I’ve never really seen an in-depth analysis of any major league baseball team’s revenue streams. That’s my conclusion after researching a story about the Twins revenue streams for this year’s GameDay program. And that surprises me because I had previously though that it was either too private or too complicated.

It’s private, but not too private. Turns out there are a lot of business magazines and authors that follow this stuff and piece things together. Even the MLB.com web site has primers on the central fund, the luxury tax, and revenue sharing. There’s also no shortage of reports on television and radio contracts that can provide some rough numbers. And in the Twins case, we discovered an interesting public domain document a year ago that broke down anticipated revenues from their 2007 season.

And it’s also not too complicated, provided the level of specificity you’re looking for doesn’t go beyond “back-of-the-napkin” numbers. For instance, say I wanted to figure out the Twins revenue on program/scorecard sales. If I had a decent idea of their paid distribution and their price, I’d have a good idea of that revenue.

But today, we’re going to go a level higher than that and concentrate on that public domain document. The document is actually the 2008 budget for the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission, which oversees the Metrodome. Its purpose is to explain the 2008 budget for that body. And to do so, it examines the 2007 activity of that commission, including lots of details about the revenues of the Twins, Vikings and Gophers.

For instance, on page 4, we see “MN Twins Share of concession receipts” for 2007 (Projection) spelled out. It’s $5,920,000. And it appears that is only inside the dome, because a few lines below it we see “MN Twins share of plaza concessions receipts” which totals another $217,800. Which brings us to a grand total of $6,090,000.

You know what? This is already getting dry. Let’s try and jazz it up with a little graphic that we can display every time we want to add up these numbers:

Ooh, that’s better. One more note before we move on from the concessions revenues– it doesn’t appear to include novelties. The commission receives money from the sale those novelties, but that must come from the Twins. How much do the Twins make? We can’t really tell, but the Commission’s cut was $145,895. I’d be shocked if the Twins' was less, so we’ll add that too.

There’s one more thing we should talk about on page 4 midway down the page. It’s a “Facilities Cost Credit” for $3,384,000. It’s not explained on this page, but it is on page 12:

“In 1998 the Commission created the facilities cost credit to assist the MN Twins, MN Vikings and University of Minnesota football Gophers in enhancing team revenues and/or reducing event day cost of operation in the Metrodome. Since 1999 the Commission has issued an annual payment to the MN Twins and the University of Minnesota football Gophers that is equal to the admissions tax paid by each team for their events in the Metrodome.”

Near as I can tell, that means that the Twins are supposed to be paying a $.10 per dollar admissions tax for every ticket sold, but in 1999 the Commission decided they would refund that money to the Twins. So we can add that to the Twins total.

But that doesn’t seem to be the only rebate the MSFC gives the Twins, because on page 8, there’s another line item called “MN Twins Reimbursed expenses” for $2,140,000. There’s no explanation, but the line item code isn’t equal to anything else we’ve tracked so far, so let’s add that.

And, of course, we haven’t figured out ticket revenue yet, either. The commission doesn’t say what the Twins took in as ticket revenue, but it does tell us the attendance (2,200,000) and the average price per ticket ($17.92). Multiplying them together gets us $39,424,000, which should at least be in the ballpark. When we add that to our other numbers, the grand total is….

So is that all of the Twins revenue? Not by a long shot. In 2007, the Twins had a payroll of $70M, and given their claim of budgeting payroll to be around 52% or revenues, their total revenues should be closer to $134M. So we have about $83M more to find.

And we will. This is only one document. We haven’t reviewed the luxury tax, revenue sharing, TV contracts, radio contracts, the “Central Fund” or the aptly nicknamed “BAM." We’ll get to that in parts 2 and 3. Possibly as soon as next week.

So, can this ever be entertaining?

Top Five List: Reasons to sign Joe Crede

I'll admit it - I'm a sucker for John Cusack movies. I have been since The Sure Thing which I quoted roughly 876 times during my college years. So I love the idea of breaking down a possible Joe Crede signing with the guys from Championship Vinyl. Take it away Rob:

Rob Gordon: Top five reasons the Twins should absolutely sign Joe Crede, listed in descending order of importance, from least to most:

One. He's a gold glove caliber fielder, something the Twins haven't had since Corey Koskie. Unless you count Nick Punto. And I don't.

Two. Depth. This team is one infield injury - at ANY position - from having Matt Tolbert be a full time starter. Bringing in Crede puts Brendan Harris as the first utility infielder off the bench. Depth counts.

Barry: Very nice, Rob, very nice. BUT you forgot one important thing. Who is the unlucky sap that doesn't make the roster if Crede is signed, huh? Four bench guys - count 'em - Harris, Redmond, fourth outfielder AND ... who's it gonna be Rob? Buscher and Tolbert represent two of Gardy's bench hard-ons - the left-handed bat versus the second middle infielder. Which desire comes out on top?

Rob (frowning): Three. Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher aren't as good as you think they are. Harris hits a little better than a utility infielder and fields worse than one. Buscher hit the snot out of righthanders but it was 174 at-bats, OK? And he's almost 28 years old. Both of these guys are real assets if they come off the bench, but not as everyday players or even as platoon guys. Especially if the lineup is already saddled with Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez.

Barry: Harris should be immediately disqualified just for how he spells his first name. "Brandon" needs to have a masculine "O" in it somewhere. This derivative of "Brenda" crap sucks @$$.

Dick: I like Harris. He reminds me of Marlon Anderson, except with his career kind of derailed, Warren Morris style. Except white.

Rob and Barry: (Blink. Blink.)

Rob: Four. Screw the money. The money doesn't mean a thing in this case. Twins fans have been brainwashed into thinking that every contract needs to be fiscally responsible. It doesn't. The Diamondbacks won a World Series while being riduculed for paying $10 million a year to a washed up Matt Williams. The Twins know damn well there is no such thing as a bad one year contract, especially when you're $20 million in the black. So don't tell me we should be passing on an opportunity to make the team better just because we want to guarantee $3 million instead of $5 million.

Barry: Yeah, and if the fascist bean counters don't like it, screw them! Let 'em riot! We don't care! We're Sonic Death Monkey!

Rob (Rubs temples. Looks up. Gathers self. Stares into camera): And five - the most important reason. Joe Crede basically is Michael Cuddyer. Both are right-handed with power. They'll both be 30 on Opening Day. Both struggle with batting average. Both were hurt most of last year. Both haven't really met expectations except for huge years in 2006.

So if the Twins had a chance to sign Michael Cuddyer for an affordable one year deal, except that they knew he would play third base at close to a gold glove level, they wouldn't do it? Of course they would. It's a no-brainer.

Barry: BZZZZZZ! Oh, I'm sorry, thanks for playing Rob. But the correct answer was "Ty Wigginton." Yes, yes, Wigginton, though the judges would've accepted any derivation of "Wiggy". Wiggy, you see, slugs left-handers at a .500-plus clip over the last three years. The perfect compliment for Buscher.

Rob: True?

Barry: Ask him.

Dick: .568

Barry: Wiggington, Rob. Wigginton! Yeah! Now let's get outta here. Later losers.

What about Joe Crede?

I know, I know, I should be writing about Joe Crede, but one thing is stopping me: I lack the appropriate literary device. There are about 12 different aspects to cover with a possible Crede signing, some positive and some negative, and I’m stalling on how to cover them all. Thumbs up/thumbs down? What’s hot/what’s not? I suppose I could rip off Simmons and break it down Dr. Jack style, but it seems like there is a much more obvious literary device. Like from a movie or show? It feels like it is just staring me in the face. It’s driving me crazy.

So, if you’ve got any ideas, feel free to include them in the comments below. I’ve been putting it off for two weeks – two days more shouldn’t kill me. In the meantime, I'm working on a long promised breakdown of the Twins revenue streams for the first issue of GameDay this year. We may get a portion of that up on the blog later this week.

Transaction Notes: Luis Ayala

Minnesota Twins agreed to terms with RHP Luis Ayala on a one-year, $1.3M contract.

Slow offseason? Slow offseason?!? Well, OK, sure, pitchers and catchers report in a week and we just got our first new Twin. But in my book that deserves at least a full length 750 word story. So let's see how many ways can we spin the signing of the 20th guy on the roster.

I haven't seen much of the coverage of this signing, but I suspect the capsule version is something like "He had a 5.71 ERA last year but he's better than that." And in dozen words or less, that's about right, but we've got 738 more words than that, so we might as well use them.

The signing will please contrarians immensely, because that 2008 ERA is such a deliciously large target, and the truth is that he wasn't better than that. He was exactly that. What's disconcerting (or comforting, depending on your point of view) is that we don't know why. His strikeout rate didn't change much. He walked more batters than he used to, but still not so many that you would expect disasterous consequences. He didn't give up many more home runs. And yet his ERA jumped almost three full points.

What we do know is that he's not the eighth inning replacement that we hoped the Twins were going to sign this offseason. He should be a useful reliever like Jesse Crain or Matt Guerrier. He should be a solid one inning guy most of the time. But he isn't going to drown the opposing bench in a wave of despair an inning early.

Interestingly, he hasn't been particularly dominant against one hand or the other. His stats against both right-handed and left-handed batters are almost identical. Given the depth the Twins already have on both sides of the mound, it might be better if he was dominant against right-handed hitters, even if it meant he was susceptible to the other side.

More serious roster watchers might worry about the impact of this signing on some of the fringe players on the roster. The Twins are going to break camp with seven guys in the bullpen, and those seven spots were spoken for before this signing:
- The closer, Joe Nathan
- The right-handed veterans - Crain and Guerrier
- The lefties - Jose Mijares and Craig Breslow
- The long relief guys - Boof Bonser and Philip Humber

So, pop quiz, hot shot: What happens now that Ayala is guaranteed a spot in the bullpen? (And make no mistake, he is.)

A: Somebody gets hurt.

And I mean legitimately hurt, like when Scott Baker began last season in Rochester. This signing provides a much needed insurance policy, not just for the bullpen, but for the rotation too. If a member of the starting five is hurt, Bonser slides into that role and then there's room in the bullpen.

There is at least one side benefit, too. The only guy in that bullpen who still has options left is Jose Mijares. Given the disturbing stories coming out of his winter league assignment, it might not be a bad thing for him to be looking over his shoulder.

Plus, this puts to bed the speculation about signing Eric Gagne, a client of Scott Boras. That's significant because Joe Crede is also Boras' client. Does blowing off Gagne make is less likely that the Twins sign Crede, or does it reaffirm to Boras that his leverage in these matters is less than he thinks?

And finally, it's worth noting that the signing isn't official yet, and there's more than just the usual pending physical housekeeping to take care of. Who is going to get dumped from the 40 man roster? Seth of SethSpeaks.net claims it can't be any of the guys who were added this fall, which is a rule I didn't know. If that's the case, I would not want to be in Bobby Korecky's shoes tonight.

That brings us to 663 words, and it's going to have to do, as The Voice of Reason is less likely to view another 87 words as the moral imperative that I do. Don't take it personally Luis. You're still the biggest free agency signing of the offseason for the Twins. And as your agent has no doubt explained to you, it's a slow offseason.

Transaction Notes: Gruyère

Minnesota Twins and Matt Gruyère agreed to a one-year deal contract for $1.475M, avoiding arbitration.

I love Gruyère. How can you not with its utility?

Heck, I'm not opposed to eating slivers of it, but you can also bake with it, or court that special someone over a shared fondue. But my favorite has to be the Croque Monsier ham and cheese sandwich. Holy cow. I could eat those until my arteries surrender like the French.

And the same could have been said about Matt Guerrier. The day he was picked up from Pittsburgh we talked about what a promising pickup he was. (Sorry, no link. I think it was back on TwinsTerritory.com, RIP.) He proved us correct, which is always a way to get on our good side. And he was used everywhere - mop-up guy, emergency starter, seventh inning reliever....

And then we found out the limitation. Pressed into late inning relief roles late in the season, our Gruyere turned into Monsier Croak. He had a 3.49 ERA entering August. He had a 10.07 ERA after that point.

So what happened? Up to that point, like the cheese, Guerrier had aged well. In 2008, his ERA had climbed those last two months too, but it was still under 4. When one sees that kind of a shift, the natural question is - is there an injury that we (and maybe not the team, and maybe not even the player) know about? Let's take a look at some of his underlying numbers and see what we see.

Below is a chart of Guerrier's ERA last year by month. While we're at it, let's include how many hits he gave up per nine innings.

Now isn't that a pretty correlation? Hits go up - ERA goes up, just like you would expect. Now if he was injured, we would often see fewer strikouts (K/9) as we hit August. Or if he had lost his feel for the zone, we might see a walk rate (BB/9) spike. Any luck there?


Well, his strikeout rate dropped in August, but only because it spiked in July. Otherwise it was consistent with what we saw earlier in the year. And while his walk rate climbed in September, it was also about where it should be in August. Mostly, I'm struck that he had a really unlucky July - he should've posted an ERA a lot lower than what he had been doing.

So it doesn't look like there was anything wrong with our big cheese - some small things led to him having a bad year. That happens with Gruyere, too. For instance, during the maturation process, the cellars must have a humidity between 94% and 98%. If the humidity is lower, the cheese dries out. And if it's too high, it becomes smeary and gluey.

Nobody wants smeary and gluey, and we can probably expect better. Guerrier enters his sixth year in the majors sporting a career ERA of 3.66, and an above average strikeout rate, and it hasn't moved much. The Twins hope rest, both mental and physical, will recharge him. Our little analysis hasn't revealed what the problems were last year, but I also don't know the ins and outs of curds and whey. That doesn't stop me from dipping an apple in a yummy fondue.

That's because I know just how good it can be. Did you know that one special variety of gruyere is the only cheese that has won the title of the best cheese in the World Cheese Awards in London three times?

After a couple months of curing and maturation, the Twins hope their Guerrier has similar success.

Wingman

Sure, it’s getting late, but there’s still plenty of time to hook up. Especially if you’re not too picky.

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.
What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

Do-do-do-d-d-do-do-do-d-d-do-do-do-d-d-do-do-do

OK, you can commence head bobbing.


Also, surveying the landscape. Posing. Rating the talent. And above all negotiating with your buddies as to who gets choice and who gets the leftovers.

But in this club, the ratio appears to be on your side. There’s a lot of talent, and it’s looking to go home with someone before the night ends. Twins fans might be disappointed that we aren’t going to come out of this offseason with a player worthy of a long-term relationship. But for a one-season stand, the pickings are a lot better than that Batista character that Billy Smith’s friends still raz him about.

Or the Colon experiment. Shiver.

Middle Relief
Oh, I don't know why you're not there
I give you my love, but you don't care
So what is right and what is wrong
Gimme a sign

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

It appears that this offseason, the Twins are going to be playing the role of wingman, at least as far as middle relievers go. And that's not just because they don't want to get stuck paying for the drinks.

The Twins don’t have the best opportunity for a reliever, no matter how much they offered. The Tigers had an enormous gap at the end of their bullpen, and have been trying to fix it (albeit affordably) for months. The A’s, suddenly flush with payroll, have similar issues at the back of their bullpen, especially after they traded away closer Huston Street.

A setup man signing a one-year deal with one of those teams has a decent chance at becoming a closer and really cashing in come 2010. So it shouldn’t surprise us that Dave Dombrowski enticed Brandon Lyons over to his place to look at his album collection. Meanwhile, Russ Springer is doing kamikaze shooters in the corner with Billy Beane – and the subject of body shots has come up. They're looking like a done deal.

So the Twins and Eric Gagne are suddenly left with each other. They’re engaged in a pleasant enough conversation – while, you know, looking around the bar a bit just to see what’s happening elsewhere. Neither seems especially opposed to the other, and since that’s what’s left. . . .

Third Base
Oh, I don't know, what can I do
What else can I say, it's up to you
I know we're one, just me and you
I can't go on

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

Meanwhile, over at third base, the Twins can explore their alpha male side a bit more. You're like a big bear, Billy, with these claws and fangs and big fricking teeth. And Ty Wigginton and Joe Crede are these cute little bunnies. And you're like, you're thinking, "How am I supposed to kill this bunny? How am I supposed to kill this bunny?"

See, there are still two right-handed third basemen on the market with 20+ home run power, and the Twins are the best fit for both of them. We haven’t heard any Wigginton rumors for a couple of months, but his best opportunity for a full-time job at third disappeared when Indians GM Mark Shapiro and Mark DeRosa left the bar to "let the dog out". And now we hear that Joe Crede is on his way to the club, and is dressed to the nines.

Sure, there are plenty of other teams in which those two have been rumored to be interested, but they all have limitations. Is Ty Wigginton going to choose to backup Pedro Feliz rather than start over Brandon Harris? Or move to a corner outfield spot, which would make it that much harder to get a job in 2010? Or is Joe Crede going to choose Pac Bell Park for his 2010 salary drive?

If Bill Smith isn’t the most popular guy at the bar, he should be. You’re so money Billy, and you don’t even know it. Make your choice, and leave the other one to decide between Brian Sabean’s or Neal Huntingon’s parents' (or is that division's) basement.

Just Friends - You Know - With Benefits
I want no other, no other lover
This is your life, our time
When we are together, I need you forever
Is it love

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more.

Who woulda thunk that the Twins would end up courting a couple of Scott Boras clients? Both Crede and Gagne are represented by The Dark One. What do you get when you combine the aggressive spawn of Boras with buttoned-down Pohlad offspring? And could queasiness about such an unholy union affect or at least delay a deal getting done?

It shouldn’t. You don’t need to meet each others parents to spend the night together. This is going to be short-time thing, founded on mutual usury. Nobody’s looking to fall in love here.

What is love? Oh baby, don't hurt me, don't hurt me, no more. (oooh, oooh)

So don't give up. All that’s left is to keep one’s eye on the ball. Put in the time. And close the deal. There’s still plenty of time to hook up. Especially if you’re not too picky.

What is LOVE?

Last Reminder: Hot Stove League Banquet

I promise, this weekend I'll throw together a post about Russ Springer (Cliff Notes version: I like) and about Joe Crede (Cliff Notes version: I still think a RH 3B is gonna be signed this offseason). But right now I've got about fifteen minutes, so it's gonna need to wait.

But I hope to catch up with you all on Saturday night at the Hot Stove League Banquet. In case you missed it, MinnPost writer Jay Weiner had an excellent article on the history of this banquet and of the characters that organize it every year. It begins at 5:30 p.m. Saturday at Harriet Island Pavilion, St. Paul.

Tickets are still available. They can be purchased for $30 at Anodyne Coffee in Minneapolis or Golden Thyme Coffee in St. Paul, by email at ballparktours@qwestoffice.net, or they can be bought at the door, though it's and extra $5 there. It's for the benefit of St. Paul's Dunning Midway Little League.

A Cool Kubel Gambit

The Twins and Jason Kubel have apparently agreed to a two-year contract with an option for a third year, pending a physical by Kubel. Details of the dollars haven't been released (or discovered), but even before we learn those important details, it's an interesting deal for both sides:

The Twins
Before the deal, the Twins essentially had Kubel under a one-year contact with an option for a second year. Now he's under a two-year contract with an option for a third year. So the Twins agreed to throw in an extra guaranteed year of money - and it will be an expensive guaranteed year, too. The Twins would've only needed to guarantee about $3M before the deal, and are likely up to about $9M with the deal.

So what did the Twins get in return?

Jason Kubel
They got an option on a third year at a point in Kubel's career where his numbers should project upwards. Kubel is just 26 years old right now, turning 27 at the end of May. So he's just now entering his prime, and was scheduled to be a free agent when he was just 28 years old. This deal gives the Twins the chance to lock Kubel up for three of his prime years instead of just two. We'll see how astute that is when we see just how much that option year will cost.

Front-Loaded?
I'll be surprised if the details don't include a signing bonus, since the Twins should have plenty of unspent payroll money in their coffers. But it shouldn't be huge (almost definitely less than $2M) and certainly won't be significant enough to limit other moves that they could (and should) make.

Overcoming Difficulties
When word leaked out that the Twins were pursuing a two-year deal with Kubel, I had my doubts that anything positive would come of it. First of all, it didn't make sense for the Twins to pursue a two-year deal when the already had Kubel under arbitration for the next two years. And it didn't make much sense for Kubel to sign a deal any longer than that, given that he was in a favorable position to score big in free agency.

I was wrong. The Twins and Kubel came up with a somewhat creative solution that gives Kubel his first enormous payday while giving the Twins an extra prime year of Kubel in the new stadium. Pending some crazy financial details, it sounds like a win/win, and both sides deserve a healthy scoop of credit for that.

----------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Events!
Hey gang, just a couple of extra notes.....

First, I'm thinking about getting a ticket to the Diamond Awards banquet on Thursday night. Has anyone else gone? If so, can you throw down your impressions in the comments below?

Second, don't forget that I'll be at the Hot Stove League Banquet on Saturday Night at a GameDay table and answering questions afterwards. I'd love to meet folks, and it really is a very good and informal good baseball time. Here are the details:

WHEN: Saturday, 1/24. Doors Open: 5:30 pm. Festivities Begin: 7:10 pm.

WHERE: Harriet Island Pavilion Building (across from Dtwn St. Paul via the Wabasha Avenue Bridge).

PRICE: $30, adults; $25, ages 16 or younger. $5 more at the door.

TICKETS: Anodyne @ 43rd, 4301 Nicollet Avenue South in Minneapolis; Golden Thyme Coffee & Cafe, 921 Selby Avenue in St. Paul or at the door.

MORE INFO: 651-227-3437, 651-644-9254 or ballparktours@qwest.net.

This year our line up includes former Minnesota Twins and Millwaukee Brewers great Corey Koskie, Major League Baseball Umpire Tim Tschida and a tribute to our friend the late Andy Nelson (who was a great local sports and mural artist). StarTribune scribe LaVelle E. Neal III, another Twins Alumni (TBA) and other special guests are expected to join us as well.

Howard Sinker has signed on to be our our host this year. Cribbed from his web site, "A Fan's View From Section 220": "In a former life Howard has covered the Twins for the StarTribune. Today, he is a commentator on baseball and other sports for Minnesota Public Radio's Midday program. He grew up rooting for the Cubs, back before it was trendy, has settled quite nicely into a season-ticket package in Section 220 of the Metrodome and owns two XM Radios."

Finally, if you haven't signed up as a friend of TwinsGeek.com on Facebook, I hope you will. I hope to use it to stay in closer touch with everyone, including special short posts that I'll be "throwing against The Wall" there.

Signing Joe

Friday I wrote about Twins players who are are ripe for signing a long-term deal. And on Saturday, Jim Souhan pointed out there is another guy that the Twins should be targeting:

What is the immediate lesson to be learned from recent history?

That the Twins should sign Joe Mauer to a long-term deal as quickly as possible, because this is the rare athlete our local teams can't afford to trade, or lose, under any circumstances.

Easier said than done. The difference between the guys we reviewed on Friday and Mauer is that Mauer could not be much harder to sign to a deal beyond his contract that ends after 2010. In fact, when you look at the deals, it might be impossible. Here's what the Twins would need to overcome:

The Money

This is the obvious one, right? Consider that Ivan Rodriguez and Jorge Posada both received $13 million/year contracts within the last couple of years. That puts the the starting bid for Mauer at $14M. And climbing.

Oh, and it's not like the offer of giving him guaranteed money early is particularly enticing. Mauer isn't exactly looking for two nickels to rub together. He's already in the middle of a contract that is paying him $33 million. And that's not including the $5 million signing bonus that he got just for getting drafted. Is an extra $28 million, two-year extension really going to be all that appealing? Not given...

The Timing

Joe Mauer will be just 27 years old when he becomes a free agent. That means that any team signing him will be singing him for the prime years of his career, and will bid accordingly. They can also have confidence that he'll be productive offensively for the length of a very long contract, meaning lots of guaranteed years.

For instance, the Yankees just signed Mark Teixera an 8-year deal, and he was a year older than Mauer will be. And that contract also had a full no-trade clause, giving him...

Freedom of Choice

A no-trade clause would almost be mandatory, since Mauer isn't going to want to accept a trade to just any team. Especially if he signs with the Twins because it's his hometown.

But it goes further than that. There were a few instance this year where premier free agents also received opt-out clauses in their contract. That way, if things go south for an organization, or salaries soar, or if a player just wants to have some leverage with his head coach, he can opt out of his contract early.

Considering that the Twins tend to rebuild every couple of years, and that their inaction this offseason doesn't exactly scream "commitment to winning", can you imagine an opt-out not being included? And then, do you really have a long-term deal? For instance, if there is an opt-out clause after 2012, aren't we having this same conversation two years from now?

So Do You REALLY Want To Sign Him?

Try and digest all of the above. So you really want to sign Mauer? If so, you had better bring a monster offer, something like this....

Keep the two year deal you still have in place:

2009 - $10.5M

2010 - $12.5M

Add a seven-year extension with escalating pay:

2011 - $14M

2012 - $15M

2013 - $16M

2014 - $17M

2015 - $18M

2016 - $19M

2017 - $20M

That's essentiall a nine-year, $142 million contract. It will also need to have a full no-trade clause. And it will likely need to have opt-out clauses when he's 28 (after 2011) and 31 (after 2014). Meaning you'll be talking about him possibly opting out for most of then next six years.

And if he ends up having knee problems again, or never hits for power, or never really tries to hit for power, that is the team's problem, not Joe's. That money is guaranteed.

Still convinced they need to sign Joe as soon as possible?

The Sweet Spot

Yummm.... Guaranteed money…..

Something for you to keep in mind when you finally get that baseball GM job that you know you would be perfect for: there is a sweet spot for signing ballplayers to a long-term deal. It is the offseason when they are one year away from arbitration.

At that point you should know whether a long term deal is a good idea. And at that point they are still a year away from a lifetime of security. Anything can happen during that season – they can blow out a knee, or a shoulder, or face a prolonged slump, or watch their control vanish. Ballplayers are naturally risk takers – they almost need to be to choose that line of work – but a guaranteed deal provides them a lifetime of financial security a year early.

The Twins have six players who are currently in that sweet spot. And that sweet spot is even sweeter now, because recent history tells us that the Twins don’t like to come into Twins Fest empty-handed. And Twins Fest starts two weeks from today.

While fans and talking heads like to spout cliched opinions about long-term deals, the reality is the devil is in the details. There are amounts at which a long-term deal makes sense, and there are amounts at which it doesn’t. That's because the team already has a four-year contract with these players, whether we choose to call it that or not.

We'll delve into that and look at the various players in the sweet spot. And since we’re a blog, and thus journalistically irresponsible, let’s also speculate on what each deal might look like. We’ll even rank them from most likely to least likely, starting with:

Francisco Liriano
You can argue whether Liriano or Scott Baker should be the top long-term target on the roster. Either way, these two players are better fits for a long-term deal than the Twins have had for several years. They’re both relatively proven, they’re both a year away from big money, and they’re both high-ceiling players.

The only issue that might scare the Twins about Liriano – his health – is exactly the reason a long-term deal is probably so attractive to him. And after just missing arbitration last year, he’s faced with one more year of a team-dictated salary before a giant raise. So now’s the time, for both him and the Twins.

Here, very roughly, is what Liriano and the Twins can expect his salary to be over the next four years if he remains healthy and goes through the arbitration process:

2009 – $0.5M
2010 - $3.5M
2011 - $7.0M
2012 - $11.5M
2013 – free agent
Total - $22.5 million through 2012

Repeat after me: The Twins essentially already have a contract with Liriano. It is for four years and (roughly) $22.5 million. That's going to be the case for all these guys, and it’s the best kind of contract because they can renew it yearly, meaning there is almost no risk to them whatsoever. For them to guarantee all of that money ahead of time, they to need to get something substantial in return.

In this case, that something had better include at least one year of free agency. But the question for both sides is how long will they want to commit? If the Twins trust him to stay healthy, the longer the better. But if he comes down with an elbow injury next June, just how long do the Twins want to be on the hook?

Ideally, their offer would be for something like 3 years and $10M guaranteed, with team options for 2012 and 2013 at $11M and $13M respectively. Throw some guaranteed money buyouts ($1.5M?) for those last two years and Liriano is guaranteed $13M, even if he breaks down on March 15th. Given his arm issues, I would think he (and his agent) would have a hard time walking away from that.

Scott Baker
There was plenty of talk last season about Liriano and his service time, but the guy on the roster who was closest to arbitration but missed was Baker. He started the year with 1 year and 128 days of service time, and I’m pretty sure he was on the 25 man roster or DL for the whole year, so he finished with about 2 years and 128 days. “Super 2” arbitration usually kicks in somewhere between 2 years and 130 to 140 days. I wonder just how close he was?

Baker’s salary over the next four years closely mirrors Liriano’s. He isn’t the injury risk (in my mind) that Liriano is, so a lower per year salary with a longer deal makes more sense. Four years, $18 million, and a team option on the fifth year ($12M?) with a $2 million buyout seems fair. Congratulations Scott, your ship has come in.

Glen Perkins
It seems kind of early to sign Perkins to a long-term deal, but his service clock begs to differ. Perkins already has over two years of service time, so he’ll become expensive at this time next year, too, and this is the prime time to sign him long-term. His future isn’t as projectable, but I’d feel comfortable that he would be worth whatever he is paid through his second year of arbitration.

That Liriano profile above works for Baker, too, but it wouldn’t make as much sense to offer him as many years or as much guaranteed money. Three years and $8 million plus some buyout options seems fine, provided the Twins have some reasonable team options on 2012 and 2013.

Delmon Young
Ugh. Young represents exactly the kind of talent that a team would like to lock up with a long-term deal, and exactly the kind of attitude that makes that impossible. Given that the manager has resorted to offseason threats about benching him, I think it’s safe to say that we aren’t going to see Young receive a long-term deal this offseason.

Hopefully, he’ll make the Twins regret that decision somewhat this year. One thing that is overlooked in Young’s performance last year is that he didn’t have a ton of incentive to put up huge numbers. He’s still going to be paid whatever the Twins decide. Why not work on that inside-out swing in preparation for a salary drive this year, when he’s playing for that arbitration award?

Frankly, Young might be the kind of guy that you never give a long-term contract to. Better to stick with the existing “four-year deal” the Twins have with all of these players and have him play for pay.

Brandon Harris
Harris started the year as the everyday second baseman and ended the year as the short end of the platoon at third base. And with Ty Wigginton still available (and Cleveland no longer in the market for him), Harris might not even have that role come Opening Day. Either way, considering the Twins have spent the better part of the offseason looking for a right-handed third baseman, it doesn’t look like they consider Harris worth a long-term investment.

Carlos Gomez
It’s hard to believe that a player who is this raw has almost two years of service time. But if Gomez stays on the Twins major league roster for the entire year, he will almost surely qualify as a “Super 2” for arbitration at this time next year.

Hmmm. If only the Twins could figure out a way to keep him in Rochester for the first month of the season…

I’ll say what I’ve been saying for the last two months – don’t believe the bluster about him starting in center field on Opening Day. With five outfielders and four spots, you tell me who the odd man out will be. Gomez is the player who struggles the most offensively (and it’s not particularly close). Gomez is the player who could most benefit by spending some time in Rochester. And it will save the Twins several million dollars if Gomez isn't on the major league roster for 20 games.

Take your time. Don't rush into a decision.

That’s why Gomez is at the bottom of the list. You don’t sign a guy to a long-term contract if you expect him to start the season in Rochester. And despite what the manager is saying, barring an injury, he’ll be starting the season in Rochester. It just makes too much sense.

But hopefully not for long. He could have a very bright future, and I'm looking forward to watching im for years, as are most fans. Hopefully we'll see him back on this list next year, much closer to the top, and nearer the sweet spot. Yummmm…….

-----------------------

This year I'm trying to be very active in Facebook (which I've largely ignored before now) because it provides a nice easy way to keep in touch with my brother who lives in Australia. Part of that includes setting up a Twins Geek blog network on Facebook. If you're a Facebook user, I'd love to have you sign up as part of the network. I'm hoping to put some smaller posts on the wall there to make it worth your while. Just visit the site and click on "Join Blog Network". I'm looking forward to getting to know you all better.

Hot Stove Night

Hey gang,
I'm working on a post about the long-term contract opportunities the Twins face, but it's not going to be ready until tomorrow. Instead, I'd like to pimp an event that I've always enjoyed and will be participating in this year: 2nd Annual "Final" Ballpark Tours Hot Stove League Banquet and Charity Auction for St. Paul's own Dunning Field Little League.

I've been to this a couple of times, and this year GameDay will have a table there where you can pick up some free issues from last year. In addition, I may be participating in the Q&A session at the end of the event. And since it's going on the same weekend as Twins Fest, you can get an absolute overdose of Twins Talk that weekend. I'd love to see all you (and as many blogger as we can get) there. Here are the details:

WHEN: Saturday, 1/24. Doors Open: 5:30 pm. Festivities Begin: 7:10 pm.

WHERE: Harriet Island Pavilion Building (across from Dtwn St. Paul via the Wabasha Avenue Bridge).

PRICE: $30, adults; $25, ages 16 or younger. $5 more at the door.

TICKETS: Anodyne @ 43rd, 4301 Nicollet Avenue South in Minneapolis; Golden Thyme Coffee & Cafe, 921 Selby Avenue in St. Paul or at the door.

MORE INFO: 651-227-3437, 651-644-9254 or ballparktours@qwest.net.

Since1982, Ballpark Tours has been hosting this yearly winter gathering where young, middle age and elder baseball fans join up with each other to disect the previous year and celebrate the upcoming season. We guarantee a fun, irreverent and raucous time for all of you who need a baseball fix during this cold and dark time of year.

It is also held to raise needed funds for the Little League organization at
Dunning Field in St. Paul. Our annual charity auctions have raised over
$50,000 to help them offer their excellent youth baseball programs and for field improvements at this intercity park.

This year our line up includes former Minnesota Twins and Millwaukee Brewers great Corey Koskie, Major League Baseball Umpire Tim Tschida and a tribute to our friend the late Andy Nelson (who was a great local sports and mural artist). StarTribune scribe LaVelle E. Neal III, another Twins Alumni (TBA) and other special guests are expected to join us as well.

Howard Sinker has signed on to be our our host this year. Cribbed from his web site, "A Fan's View From Section 220": "In a former life Howard has covered the Twins for the StarTribune. Today, he is a commentator on baseball and other sports for Minnesota Public Radio's Midday program. He grew up rooting for the Cubs, back before it was trendy, has settled quite nicely into a season-ticket package in Section 220 of the Metrodome and owns two XM Radios."

Festivies are at a new location in 2009, the Historic Harriet Island Pavilion Building (which is right across from Downtown St. Paul via the Wabasha Avenue Bridge). The doors open at 5:30 and festivities begin at 7:10 pm.

Tickets can be purchased at Anodyne @ 43rd, 4301 Nicollet Avenue South in Minneapolis and Golden Thyme Coffee & Cafe, 921 Selby Avenue in St. Paul. They remain priced at an affordable $30 for adults and $25 for ages 16 or younger. Folks can call 651-227-3437 or 651-644-9254 for more info or to reserve their tickets.