Live Blog - Phils vs. Dodgers - Game 1

We're coming to you from the Bonnes Bar and Baseball Basement in the Twins Geek Observatory. It's been more than a decade since the Phils made it to the NLCS. The last one ended with the Phils advancing to the World Series, me making that face you see above, and a bunch of us being discovered (and chased) from the kitchen of a Pizzaria Uno well after closing time. Sounds like an opportunity for a live blog...

1st Inning

Good Lord, is Manny Ramirez good. I don't know how far he hit that "double", but it only stayed in the Citizen Bank Park because of an architectural quirk in center field. He is an absolute hitting freak and hot as two suns right now. If the Phils end up being eliminated early in this series, I'm going to need to start rooting for the Red Sox in the ALCS, just so I can watch him face them.

Jack Buck and Tim McCarver raised one salient point and yet, I find them annoying.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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Fox gets mad props for having Harry Kalas introduce the Phils at the top of the first. He doesn't rank as high as cheesesteaks, pretzels and TastyKakes as a Philly institution, but he's at the next level.

Gawd, I miss Whitey.

So does Ryan Howard ever inside-out a ball to the opposite field? If not, it's going to be an awfully long night for him.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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2nd Inning

I just want to point out the The Voice of Reason(TVoR) just arrived for the game because she was too busy vacuuming upstairs. We both agree she's to blame for the early deficit.

And we learn that the home plate umpire tonight is Mike Reilly, whose recent work includes butchering the final game at the Metrodome between the White Sox and Twins. The next day I wrote:

I don't know if he had a bad night, or if he's just going through a rough patch, or if he's losing it after 31 years on the job. But I do know that someone besides the guys yelling from the two dugouts should call that performance what it was: embarassing. It truly marred an otherwise amazing game.

He doesn't seem as bad tonight, though he did call a strike on Ryan Howard for a pitch that Fox showed to be at least 6 inches outside.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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The bottom of the second provides a good example of why the designated hitter is underrated. The seventh hitter in the order gets a 2-out single, and my reaction is a yawn. You know the worst position player will be hitting next. And even if he somehow gets on base, the pitcher will be batting next. Yawn.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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3rd Inning

Hamels has only given up one run through 3 innings, but he's also give up three hits, two walks and four strikeouts. Usually Ks are a good thing, but in this case, its adding to his pitch count. He's already at 55 pitches through 3 innings.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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The highlight of the bottom of the 3rd inning? Using the basement toilet that was recently fixed for the first time in six months.

So, no, this game hasn't been everything I hoped so far. Utley leads off next inning. We'll hope for better.

Dodgers 1, Phils 0

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4th Inning

And things don't get any better in the top of the fourth. The Dodgers benefit from a fortunate lead-off double, but they take advantage of it. Give credit to Casey Blake for the job he did. Down 0-2, he works the count and eventually grounds out to the right side of the infield (and he's right-handed). The Dodgers got 'em over and got 'em in.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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Derek Lowe is at his junkballing best tonight. Everything he throws seems to be swerving as it approaches the plate. He might as well be throwing a wiffle ball - but harder. He just sat down the heart of the Phils order - Utley, Howard and Burrel - in order.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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5th Inning

TVoR is tempting fate tonight. For the upcoming elementary school book fair, she's cutting bookmarks. With a paper cutter. While she tries to watch her Phils. 8.5 is the over/under on digits she'll have at the conclusion of this game. If Manny Ramirez gets on again, I wouldn't put it past her to take one off just out of anger.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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The Phils finally get the crowd a little revved up and a runner in scoring position when the catcher Carlos Ruiz and the pitcher Cole Hamels each get two-out hits. Rollins pops out to left field, but at least he got the ball out of the infield.

Oh, and that second point under the second inning? You can ignore that, OK? We'll just keep that our little secret.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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Sixth Inning

After a lead-off single, the Phils turn a double play on a nice play by shortstop Jimmy Rollins. It not only snuffs a possible rally, but it probably means Cole Hamels gets to pitch the seventh inning.

Dodgers 2, Phils 0

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Shane Victorino leads off the inning. I'm guessing that South Philly loves Shane Victorino.

And they probably love him even a little more right now, because shortstop Rafael Furcal just threw a ball over first baseman's James Loney's head. Victorino is on second base.

Which turns out to be significant. For some reason, Derek Lowe, both last inning and this one, is a little freaked out by having a runner on second base because he believes they're reading his signs. Even after calling out his catcher to change the signs, he starts dancing around and scratching the mound like a hyperactive chicken. He looks like someone dumped itching powder down his pants.

Which may or may not have had an affect on the meatballs he threw to Chase Utley or Pat Burrell. And which they deposited into the bleachers of the Bank.

I never thought that Derek Lowe would exit this game before Cole Hamels, but it just happened. And I think I probably speak for a large segment of Dodger fandom when I say it happened a couple of batters too late. (Do people in Souther California scream at their TVs? I have trouble picturing that. "Dude. You should should pull him. Like now.")

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Seventh Inning

Hamels finishes (I assume) his night by striking out two of the batters he faces and getting the other to ground out weakly. That's 105 pitches, and he was battling from behind through the 92nd one. Nice recovery, kid.

In a related note, my wife has been doing The Happy Dance (which The The Boy™ believes he has copyighted) roughly a dozen times since that 92nd pitch. She's doing it right now. Join along, won't you? DO-dah-DO-dah-DO - DAH!

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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I love the Joe Torre State Farm commercial. I like the idea of him sticking the Yankees nose in another playoff run. And I'll even buy that he should get some of the credit for the Dodgers success this year.

But he pulled Lowe too late. He should have been pulled before Ryan Howard, let alone Pat Burrell.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Eighth Inning

The Dodgers' have the meat of the lineup hitting in the eighth, but since it's not the ninth, the Phils can't bring in Brad Lidge. Fortunately, they also have Ryan Madson, and he gets out of the inning without a runner getting past first base. Manny Ramirez was totally fooled by a changeup - and still managed a weak line drive that fortunately went right to Phillies third baseman Pedro Feliz. Manny is going to be scary this whole series. There is just no way around it.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Chase Utley bats, and I end up getting props from TVoR for his very existence.

Apparently, very early in his career, he hit a grand slam, and she was all excited to tell me about how some rookie with a WASPie name hit a grand slam. And I got all excited because he was on starting on my roto team. And she was flabbergasted.

So now she claims I discovered him. And I'm OK with that.

Dodgers 2, Phils 3

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Ninth Inning

This will be a tough inning to type up. And I don't mean that emotionally. I mean that physically, because I'm going to need to knock on wood every time they mention that Brad Lidge hasn't blown a save yet this year (knock, knock). Except in Philly they call it "touching wood". You can add your own punchline to that one.

That first out was a fly ball hit awfully far to right field.

Lidge has been perfect, but he has not got stronger as the season has progressed. He's bringing to mind another closer from the playoffs from an earlier decade, and I hesitate to even mention his name.

Good lord. The second out might have been hit farther than the first. TVoR is even making sure her happy dance is a tiny, quiet, lower case, happy dance.

dodahdodahdo-dah!

Anyway, until the Phils win a big one, it's going to be hard for Philly to ever trust a closer again. But you have to like how the Phils handled that this year. Guess who threw out the first pitch for the first playoff game this year? Yep. The-Wild-Thing-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named. Talk about jumping in head first....

And like TWTWMNBN, Lidge gets the third out on a pitch that bounces in front of home plate.

Game 1 Final: Dodgers 2, Phillies 3

Epilogue

Phils win, Mike Reilly redeemed his reputation, and TVoR won the "over" bet on her digits. Thanks for stopping by.

Phoning It In: Lingering Injuries

Hey. If you've looking for a TwinsGeek fix on the offseason, check out SethSpeaks radio podcast from last night. I'm on with Seth, Nick Nelson from Nick's & Nick's and Parker from Over the Baggy.

Towards the end of the podcast, we talk a little bit about the offseason and how the Twins have a chance at signing a number of players to long-term deals. So I'm rerunning a story from March of 2007, where I talk about the poor timing some of their better players have had in terms of injuries, and how much it cost the Twins in subsequent years.

It also explains why the offseason before they are eligible for arbitration is the best possible year to get long-term deals done. The Twins have several players who fit that description this offseason, including Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Delmon Young and Pat Neshek. I expect we'll see long-term deals for at least those first two, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see nearly a half dozen long-term deals or extensions worked out.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Lingering Injuries

They keep telling us that Matt Garza’s neck is just stiff, but they can’t fool me. It’s some degenerative spinal injury, requiring at least a half year’s worth of rehab.

And that’s if we’re suddenly lucky.

For some major league franchises, the cost of the minor leagues is just the cost of doing business. To the Twins, it’s an investment. The millions of dollars that are spent in salaries, scouting, per diems and signing bonuses are quickly recouped when a high-impact rookie provides millions of dollars worth of production for pennies on the dollar.

For instance, for the numbers that Justinn Morneau and Joe Mauer put up last year, a good chunk of teams would have been happy to pay $10 million. Each. And then they would’ve toasted their good fortune.

The Twins paid them $785,000. Combined. Which means that the Twins previous investments in the minor leagues provided at least a $19 million return for the organization, just for those two players. That’s the kind of return that low-revenue, low-payroll teams need be competitive.

Unfortunately, the Twins ability to leverage those investments has been limited due to a nearly unprecedented string of year-long injuries to high ceiling prospects. The Twins have had four players in the last few years who were considered elite prospects, an impressive number for any organization. But so far only Garza had managed to stay relatively healthy (knock, knock).

Joe Mauer’s knee cost him almost all of 2004. Jason Kubel’s knee cost him almost all of 2005 and ultimately most of 2006. Francisco Liriano’s elbow cost him half of 2006 and all of 2007. And the concussion from a bean-ball, along with a series of offseason plagues, didn’t keep Justin Mornea from playing 2005, but likely cost him a year of development.

Of course, injuries are a part of the game, and it isn’t difficult to find other teams who had players that suffered year-long injuries. You might even be able to find another team with year-long injuries to four high-impact players. But you’ll need to look long and hard to find a team that had worse timing.

That’s because what REALLY hurts a team like the Twins is that they all happened within the first two years of each player’s major league careers. Injuries those two years minimize the return a team receives from their minor league investments. But they hurt just as much years after the player has healed, because it makes it unlikely that a club can sign their high-impact players to a long-term contract that is below market value.

There is no better time for a ballclub to approach a rising star about a long-term deal than after their second complete season as major leaguer. Up to that point, the player has made close to the major league minimum, probably in the neighborhoold of $300-400,000 per year. That’s some nice ching to be sure, but it’s likely not enough to make sure they’ll never need a real job. They still have one more year to play before their first year of arbitration, which is where a star player can suddenly make several million dollars.

If the club offers the player a multi-year guaranteed deal after two years, they’re offering a lifetime of security a year earlier than the player would otherwise receive it. And all they’re asking in return is for the ballplayer to be a little less filthy rich over the next few years. It makes a ton of sense for both the ballplayer and the club to agree to that kind of a deal.

But because of early injuries, the Twins have yet to agree to that kind of deal with any of their young impact players. Everyone talked about locking up Maure and Morneau this year, but the time to negotiate with them was last offseason, before they reached arbitration. Unfrotunately, Morneau had underperformed through an injury-plagued year, and Mauer’s knee was still a question mark. Instead, the Twins didn’t get to talk about long-term deals until each one of them was already guaranteed a lifetime of security with their $4 million arbitration settlements.

This spring, Kubel is in the same boat as Mauer and Morneau were last year. You can bet that two years ago the Twins planned on approaching him with a long-term deal this offseason. They can’t, because they don’t know if his knees will remain healthy, or whether he’ll regain his stroke. If he does this year, he’ll get his $3 million whether or not he signs a long-term deal with the Twins. And we’ll be wondering why he and the Twins can’t get a long-term deal done.

And next offseason? Well, Liriano will be finishing his second year – except that he won’t have pitched in the majors for a year-and-a-half. So the Twins won’t be able to comfortably offer him a long-term deal, and will again see if their highly prized prospect breaks out just before his first big pay day. And you wonder why they weren’t anxious to have Liriano go under the knife?

When a star player’s lack of production is taken into account, the cost of an injury for every team is easily in the millions of dollars. That’s already devastating to most low revenue franchises. But the timing of these injuries is even worse, because it’s likely costing the Twins another $1-2 million worth of salary per year than if they could have negotiated a long-term deal at the best possible time. And it’s happened four times.

Is there any doubt the fifth is coming? So when you see pictures of Terry Ryan standing behind Garza in the Twins dugout, delivering a neck massage, don’t be so sure it’s a Photoshop job. That neck rub could be as valuable an investment as the entirety of the Twins minor league payroll.

Q&A: A Veteran Starting Pitcher

Asked in another forum.....
Q: Are the Twins satisfied with the young SP or will they go to the well and grab a vet or was the Livan experiment enough for them to stick with the youth? It seemed Blackburn and others began to tire at the end of the year.

In 2003, when Eric Milton got hurt in spring training, rather than use the left-handed prospect they had in the bullpen, the Twins went out and signed left-handed Kenny Rogers. Why? Because they didn't want to count on the left-handed prospect too much, they liked having him in the bullpen, and because they liked having depth.

That left-handed prospect was Johan Santana.

Oh, and here's the kicker - Santana wasn't an unknown at the time. He had been pressed into starting duty in 2002 because of injuries. In 14 starts, he had posted a 7-4 record, a 3.13 ERA and 89K in 74.2 innings.

So will they sign a veteran pitcher?

Between the five young guys they already have in the rotation, and the amount of pitching talent they already have still in the minors, and the fact that Rick Anderson could probably teach a bowl of linguini to to be a respectable starting pitcher, it makes absolutely NO sense for them to sign a veteran SP this year.

Which brings the chances of them doing so down to 90%.

Switching To Fall

“Looks like someone moved the switch to ‘Fall’”, jokes the mom as she walks her son into the Basilica’s Youth Ministry. I’ve played the Minnesotan-discussing-the-weather role enough, and know it’s my job to agree good-naturedly. But I’m not staying in the school with mom and The Chatty Chatty Princess. I’m going to soak up The Fall a bit, do a little wandering, hopefully spiritually as much as physically.

That was a half hour ago, and now I’m sitting on a bench in Loring Park, overlooking cat ‘o nine tails, a pond, and rising condos with large red banners that display enormous telephone numbers. The wandering turned into planning, and the planning turned into writing, mostly because I’m hoping the laptop warms me a bit.[1]

The cold, cloudy and slightly gusty weather is ugly, but it has some healing properties, the meteorological equivalent of a scab. I’ve been too busy the last few days with various crises to think about the Twins season or even GameDay. I’ve also been too busy to watch most of the playoffs, and I’m realizing that’s not a new phenomenon. Since I’ve started this blog and thought about baseball on a daily basis, I’ve often quit following October baseball after my Twins were no longer factors.[2]

That changed last night since The Voice of Reason’s team, the Phillies, are alive and well in the postseason. We had a planned date last night, going to Champps Alley in the Warehouse District to see if the Phils could sweep the Brewers out of the playoffs. It didn’t go particularly well for the Phils, but we did well enough.

It was way too cold for the Alley, but we tried it anyway, placing TVOR directly under one of those propane heating umbrellas. The weather meant that a good portion of the handful of customers was either regulars or employees who were off-duty, and we had a nice time comparing stages of life with them.

I asked TVOR what I should order and she gave me here eye roll. She’s heard that joke roughly two dozen times, because in the past 15 years I have never – not once – ordered anything besides the Buffalo Chicken Sandwich with Waffle Fries and Seasoned Sour Cream. I’m surprised a bigger deal isn’t made of this, especially because I know I’m not alone. My brother, who lives in Australia, brings a list of food he must have in every return visit, and the BCSwWFaSSC is on there every time. It’s not just me.[3]

We pay as much attention to the beers[4], the commercials[5], and the local wildlife[6] as to the game. It is not going like we might have hoped. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel makes a somewhat dubious aggressive move early in the game, pulling Jamie Moyer for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth. I don’t know that it cost them the game, but it didn’t help. Later I notice that the Brewers have brought in Eric Gagne, and he looks tinder dry, begging to be torched. A runner is on base, and he falls beyond to Chase Utley, and we stir the ashes a bit, looking for a spark. But Utley chases a bad 3-1 pitch with Ryan Howard waiting on deck. The 3-2 pitch is popped up, and the sparks fade.

But I notice that I’m not living and dying with every pitch, like I was earlier this week. I’m not dissecting at-bats, or looking up a ballplayer’s splits against left-handers. I’m just watching a game, watching a bar, and watching my wife. Maybe regaining some perspective. Maybe healing a little. There is time now to wander around, find some of these other things. Someone has moved the switch to ‘Fall’.

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[1] It is not unlike Bill Murray in The Razors Edge, when he starts burning pages from his spiritual books to keep warm. The fire leads to his moment of enlightenment. The laptop just causes my butt to fall asleep.

[2] This is a big change for me. I used to be an absolute fall baseball junkie in the 90s. It was one of my favorites sporting events for the real-world drama, like the first round of the NCAA tournament still is. And I wonder if the change is because I’m blogging, and absolutely gorging on baseball during the season. Or if it’s because the Twins don’t suck, so I’m not starved for relevant baseball come October. I suspect both.

[3] I suppose it could be genetic.

[4] I like beer. So when you have 12 beers on tap, I’m gong to find one that I like, and with Summit and Sam Adams, I was taken care of. But I gotta ask – why would you have four light beers on tap? Champps had Miller Lit, Bud Light, Coors Light and Mich Golden light clogging up 1/3 of their available tap beers. The bartender swears that it is absolutely necessary. They actually get unholy spawn of brand marketing who reject beer completely if all the bar has is Miller, Bud and Coors Light. I’m pretty sure this is somehow tied to the End of Days.

[5] The savvy folks at Viagra have done it again. Sponsoring a “Plays That Changed The Game” spot during the Phils/Brewers game, they chose Joe Carter’s home run in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. You know, the one that killed the Phillies dream season in 1993, and still causes 37% of the Philly metro area to awake screaming a couple of times per year. Clever strategy that. The lesson? Buy stock in Cialis.

[6] We’re almost sure we saw a paid escort. There is no other way to explain it.

First Draft - The 2009 Offseason

It's hard to compare the "challenges" the Yankees face to the challenges the Twins face most offseasons, but this offseason is the exception. The Yankees don't need to worry about fielding a competetive core of ballplayers - they can buy that simply enough. Instead, they need to worry about finding the right pieces to build an exceptional ball club, one that will meet or exceed the loftiest expectations.



Suddenly the Cute Little Franchise That Could is facing that same challenge. They don't need to worry about fielding a competetive core of ballplayers - their farm system produced a bumper crop of talent last year. Instead, they need to worry about pulling the right levers to propel that team into the postseason, and hopefully beyond.



And this offseason, the Twins have something else in common with the Yankees - they have a bunch of money. With up to $35 million worth of payroll room and just two lineup positions to fill, the Twins could actually be players for the best free agent at both positions. And still have $10 million to spend on washed up veterans that they can release mid-year. (1)



Of course, the Twins had the same payroll room last year, and their biggest offseason acquisition was Mike Lamb. (2) This is where they differ from the Yankees. They might have the money to spend this year, but top free agents also tend to have the longest guaranteed contracts, and the Twins aren't willing to commit to the length of contracts for these players. When you're only willing to offer one or two year deals, you tend to wind up with lots of fairly replaceable players.



This year might be different. The top free agent 3B, Casey Blake, is 35 years old and won't get a deal longer than 3 years guaranteed, and the Twins can do that. Ditto Orlando Cabrera, who is 33 years old, though he'll cost quite a bit more. Both of these guys are right-handed, too.



But instead of making a play for either of them, I explore trades and I explore them right away, so I can look at either of these as a backup plan. To me, the prize acquisition is Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy, because he's such a good fit. He's young, just turning 26 years old in August. He's a right-handed bat who hits fifth in the Brewers lineup, hit 24 HR with 74 RBI last year, and he absolutely mashed left-handed pitching. He won't turn into a free agent until 2011, and the Twins might well be able to use some of that extra cash to buy out some of his early free agent years beforehand.



And the Twins and Brewers are good fits for a possible trade. Besides needing young pitchers, it's worth noting that the Brewers have a one-year $10 million option on 35-year-old center fielder Mike Cameron, who hit .243 last year with 142 K and declining defense. Offering them either Denard Span or Carlos Gomez clears a glut in the Twins OF next year, upgrades the Brewers outfield defense, and gives them $10 million they can spend on re-signing Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia.



As for third base, I love the idea of trading for Beltre in a contract year, and I'd certainly be willing to part with Glen Perkins or Nick Blackburn, and possibly another minor league asset, to do so. But I can't part with Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano or Kevin Slowey, or at least not stright up. I also like Blackburn and Perkins, but I also have faith that the farm system and Rick Anderson will produce another arm. Plus, when the Twins sign their annual veteran starting pitcher, it will mean he won't have to bump one of them from the rotation.



If the Mariners want more than that, I probably stick with the Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon. I don't trust Garret Atkins and I really don't trust Kevin Kouzmanoff. Instead, I'll continue to look at other solutions, because I'm not buying that Danny Valencia is going to fill the gap at third base long-term. He's 24 years old, played in AA, and struck out 70 times in 246 at-bats (compared to just 18 walks).(3) And I'm supposed to believe that he's the future? I'm puzzled by this.



And that's a good enough first draft for day two of the offseason. We'll continue to explore possibilities, analyze players and participate in destructive rumor-mongering throughout the offseason, so stop by often. See you on Monday.

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(1) That's obviously become an offseason tradition. Really, everyone benefits. The GM gets to pretend he's picking up depth, even though he knows the manager will start the veteran. The bloggers get to stick pins into their own eyeballs. The manager gets to relish the veterany goodness of it all. And the radio call-ins get to slam the whole bunch.

Oh, and the prospects get to wait another couple of months and get called up mid-year. Since the veteran sucks, the prospect gets to play with almost no pressure. All he has to do is be a bit better than the guy that sucks. Hell, even if he sucks just as much, at least he's cheaper. Listen up kids - the key to a solid career is to make sure you always replace the guy that sucks.

(2) That was a move I fully endorsed, by the way. Remember that as you read today's thoughtful insights about offseason moves. And as you savage my choices on the comments section.

(3) Sorry Danny. But, I look forward to you proving me wrong.

The 2009 Twins General Manager Cheat Sheet

So, you’re looking at your Twins and wondering if you could do a better job? Well, to be a major league GM, you could either:

a) put some time in at the major league level, probably schlep around as a scout for a dozen years or so, stay on top of the free agent market, and experience the joy of negotiating with Satan, er, Scott Boras. Or…

b) stop by TwinsGeek.com.

It looks like you chose (b), so we know you’re smart, but let’s see how smart. Your job is to create a competitive 2009 team while keeping the payroll under $85 million (a pretty realistic estimate as to next year’s salary level).

We’ll give you the tools you need, including lists of the positions, the players who will most likely be back, their approximate salaries, and a list of the other assumptions we’re making in case you want to challenge them.

Then you come in. We’ll list the open positions and some of the options you have (including how much they cost). You can build your own team and compare it to the job Bill Smith does this offseason. Just make sure the total is under $85 million, because your boss isn’t known as the freest spender in the world.

The Lineup

These numbers are estimates, but they’re awfully close. Nick Punto is a free agent this year so we’re leaving his spot open, but you can try and sign him later if you like. You could also plug Brian Buscher in at 3B, or even platoon him with someone like Brendan Harris. More on that below.

By the way, you’ve spent $33 million so far.

The Rotation

Wow. Look at all those beautiful low salaries. You know it must bring a tear to Carl’s eye. The Twins entire starting rotation is making less than half of what the Mariners gave Carlos Silva as a signing bonus.

You may want to consider trading one of these arms for something you need next year. Otherwise, this staff is set, and you’ve spent $35.25 million.

The Bench

Again, most of this is taken care of. Carlos Gomez is listed as the 4th OF, because we have Michael Cuddyer back in the outfield. You’ll notice that Randy Ruiz isn’t on this list yet, either. You could carry him as your 5th outfielder and a right-handed platoon for Jason Kubel. Or you could sign a veteran bench player ala Craig Monroe.

Otherwise, you’ve spent $37.55 million so far.

The Bullpen

Dennys Reyes is a free agent this off-season, and with Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares doing well, I’ll leave him and Eddie Guardado out of next year’s plans. You’ll also notice that Matt Guerrier isn’t on the list either. He could be, but who does he bump? And is the roster spot worth the $2 million he’ll be due if you offer him arbitration?
Without Guerrier, your total is a shade over $49 million.

Summary
You’re most of the way there! 22 of the 25 roster spots are spoken for, and $49 million, er, $52.35 million is spent. Where did that other $3.3 million come from? Unfortunately, that is money you still owe the departed Mike Lamb. Still, you have almost $33 million to spend. Let’s see what your options are:


The Options

Shortstop

1. You can bring back Nick Punto with a two-year contract for $3 million per year.


2. You can start Matt Tolbert at SS and replace his bench spot with a utility infielder for just a half million dollars.


3. You can sign one of the free agent shortstops. Options include:
   a. Rafael Furcal – a speedy lead-off hitter who will demand $15 million/year for four years
   b. Orlando Cabrera - solid veteran and #2 hitter on the White Sox who will demand $11 million/year for three years
   c. Edgar Renteria – Tigers veteran whose defense is shaky and will want $8 million/year for two years
   d. David Eckstien – veteran spark plug who will want $4 million for 1 year


4. You can move Alexi Casilla to shortstop and sign one of these free agent second basemen:
   a. Orlando Hudson – Switch-hitter who hit .305 this year and will command $11 million/year for four years
   b. Mark Ellis – Great player, but bad shoulder. If he’s healthy, he’ll get $5 million to provie it for one year.
   c. Pick-A-Vet (Mark Grudzielanek, Mark Loretta, Ray Durham) - $3 million for one year of an old guy


5. Finally, you could trade for a shortstop:
   a. The Brewers might trade JJ Hardy ($5M) to make room for prospect Alcides Escobar. And with Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia likely on their way out of town, they could use a young effective pitcher.
   b. The Red Sox will shop Julio Lugo. He'll make $9 million over each of the next two years and is a veteran shortstop, but has struggled in Boston.

Third Base

1. You could have Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris platoon at the position, for just a half million dollars. You could even include prospects like Matt Macri, Luke Hughes or Danny Valencia in the competition in spring training.


2. You could sign a free agent:
   Casey Blake – He’s right-handed and 35 years old, and will probably get a three-year deal for $6 million per year.
   Joe Crede – Had a great year until his back sidelined him for the last two months; he’ll ask for $7 million for one year.
   Pick-A-Vet (Rich Aurilia, Russell Branyan, Wes Helms)—$3 million for one season of questionable production.


3. You could make a trade:
   a. Adrian Beltre – He’ll cost you $11 million and one of your young pitchers.
   b. Garrett Atkins – He’ll cost you $7 million and one of your young pitchers, and he hasn’t hit outside Coors.
   c. Kevin Kouzmanoff – He’ll cost you a half million dollars and one of your young pitchers. He’s 27 with a career .267 average.

Backup Outfielder

1. You could have Randy Ruiz occasionally play right field and be a right-handed bat off the bench. He’ll cost the major league minimum.


2. You could pick up a veteran free agent for backing up the OF:
   a. Cliff Floyd – LH veteran will likely get about $2.5 million next year.
   b. Jonny Gomes – RH reserve might be a nice gamble for $3M.
   c. So Taguchi – Probably not the bench bat Gardy would like but he sure will hustle for his $1 million.

How’d you do? Did you spend all your money? Did you pump up the offense? Do you still have your young pitchers? And, most importantly, is your boss going to be happy with how much you spent?

Great. Now let us see how you did in the comments below. (Unless, of course, it involves re-signing Mike Lamb. Then you might want to try again.)

"Flip of a Coin"

That's what my friend David said as the game ended and we watched the White Sox celebrating on their home turf.

He was referring to the home field advantage the White Sox had, but he might as well have been referring to half a dozen more figurative coin flips. Like the result of a one-run game between fairly even teams. Or the chance that AJ Pierzynski drops a ball as he is barrelled into by Michael Cuddyer. Or any of another dozen game this season that the Twins lost (or won) because of something as trivial and chancy as the flip of a coin.

By the way, you can include that last win against the White Sox at the Metrodome in that last example. That's why I grew increasingly squeamish as the players and media portrayed it as a litmus test of character. Well, how about now? Do the Twins lack character for losing the coin flip, maybe literally and figuratively, last night?

Nick Blackburn doesn't get the loss for that game because he lacked character. He got the loss because he threw a changeup high in the zone and across the heart of the plate twice in a row. And the Twns didn't fail to score runs because they lacked character. They failed to score runs because Joe Mauer had a couple of borderline strikes not go his way, and because Justin Morneau fell into his worst slump of the season at exactly the wrong time.

Oh, and because they were once again timid on the basepaths. If there is a bad taste in my mouth after this game, that's where it comes from. I understand that John Danks is left-handed and was especially interested in keeping the Twins from running. And I understand that this was a priority after the Tigers stole four bases last night. But that's because the Tigers stole four bases last night. And one of those was by Gary Sheffield. Using his walker.

But other than that (and it's not a minor quibble), credit the Twins for being creative and taking some risks. Sending Cuddyer with two outs on Brendan Harris' short fly ball was a no-brainer, because there is a 70% chance that either Ken Griffey's throw is not perfect or Pierzynski drops that ball. There is only a 30% chance (at best) that the next batter, Nick Punto, drives Cuddyer in. You send him every time on that play, and you need to credit Griffey and especially AJ for making the play.

The Twins also batted Jason Kubel againt Jenks to lead off the ninth, which is a nice little substitution. I also liked pinch-running Matt Tolbert. And I liked Mauer's attempt to get off the snide with the bunt in that long US Cellular grass. It was just a bad bunt.

On the opposite side, my biggest fear entering the game was that manager Ron Gardenhire would underuse the key assets in his bullpen. Instead he did exactly the opposite, bringing in his two best relievers, Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan, earlier than might have been anticipated and rode them to 1 and 2/3 scoreless innings. And prior to Jim Thome hitting the moonshot (and it was an absolute moonshot), there wasn't much of an indication that Blackburn was tiring. It was just a really bad pitch. Especially because it followed a duplicate really bad pitch.

So give credit to the White Sox, who are at least as good a story as the Twins this year. I picked them for fourth after last year's implosion, so they exceeded my expectations at least as much as the Twins did. They also won this division despite more critical injuries that the Twins faced. And tonight they came up with a key hit, a key defensive play, and even a key defensive substitution to win the game. Make no mistake, I hate that team, but that's because they're worthy of hate.

Meanwhile, the Twins have nothing significant to hang their heads about after this game or this season. They reached their preseason goal of 162+, even if it's not necessarily what they had in mind. They had a very solid young core of players that succesfully navigated a pennant race and got a taste, albeit small, or what fall baseball can be like.

And they found out that fall baseball can come down to a hit. A throw. A catch. Or maybe just a flip of a coin.

The Offseason
I suspect you'll see a lot of stories today that wrap up the season in a nice little bow today for the Twins. Tomorrow you'll see a lot of speculation about what might happen in the offseason, and TwinsGeek.com will be no exception. Check in tomorrow or maybe even later today, after the requisite mourning period.

Bring on the "+"

The magic number is "1", so one way or the other, the Twins are going to meet their preseason "F U" goal of playing 162+ games.

By now, you've probably heard about the t-shirts that they had made in spring training that said something like "162+" on the front and "Prove Them Wrong" on the back. (If not, I'm guessing you'll hear about it again this week.) And one way or the other, the Twins know that the'll be playing again this week. The question is whether their next game will be a playoff game versus the Rays, or a "play in" game versus the White Sox.

Bet on the latter. Vegas certainly is. They're giving slightly better than 2:1 odds for the White Sox in this game.

There will be lots of talk about how the Tigers want to knock the White Sox out of the playoffs, but in reality, there is almost no incentive for them to do well. It's probably a little bit telling Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield and Edgar Renteria are all listed on the injury report as "day-to-day". Manager Jim Leyland is known to be quite a motivator, but you can be sure that most of that roster would just as soon phone in that game.

The one exception might be the Tigers' pitcher, Freddy Garcia, who will be pitching for a decent offseason contract after a lost season due to shoulder surgery. Unfortunately, incentive only take a guy so far, and they don't instantaneously cure scar tissue. Garcia has had two starts in the majors, and has lasted only five innings in each. His first, against the Rangers, went well. His second, against the Royals, did not. And his AAA stats from this year, where he made 11 starts, are underwhelming as well.

The White Sox will trot out Gavin Floyd, just three days ago in the series finale at the Metrodome. Floyd will be pitching on 3 days rest, and when he did that a week ago he gave up 5 runs in 6.1 innings to KC.

Against the Twins, Floyd threw 101 pitches, but only made it through 5.2 innings. If he leaves relatively early again, Ozzie Guillen will have his two best relievers available. Both Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks pitched yesterday, but neither threw even 10 pitches. So that's another couple of trump cards the White Sox can play.

Finally, it's worth noting that the White Sox have dominated the Tigers this year, even when the Tigers did have plenty of incentive. They're 11-6 against Detroit this year, and 6-2 at home. You might recall them even sweeping a double-header against the Tigers just two weeks ago. And Floyd has two of those 11 wins.

Which brings us to Tuesday. That's when the "+" game will most likely be played, and when I expect the oddsmakers in Vegas to again favor the White Sox. We'll see if the Twins can once again "Prove Them Wrong".

Individual Races

If the "play in" game versus the White Sox becomes a reality, the stats in that game count towards the players regular season totals. That could mean good things for those people hoping for an individual award for Justin Morneau. He would need two RBI to pass Josh Hamilton for the RBI lead.

Joe Mauer;s second batting championship looks to be safe either way. I see Dustin Pedroia didn't play in the Red Sox second game last night, and so he stayed at .326 while Mauer is rounded up to .330. He would need to go 0 for 6 to fall below Pedroia's level.

I'm a little baffled by Pedroia not playing. If you had a shot at a batting championship, wouldn't you play that second game? I'm guessing there is a story there I don't know.

It's a Maxwell's Night

Just a heads up. I'll be watching the game at Maxwell's tonight starting at 7:30 or so, and particpating in the pregame revelry from 6-6:45, too. If you're interested in joining me, TVOR and some friends, you're certainly invited.

-----------------------------------------------

Update
Got this comment: "Please don't go to Maxwell's again this year. You've gone twice now, and both times the Twins have been blown out."


And I could NOT agree more. I actually logged in tonight to say exactly the same thing. Maxwell's cannot happen again this year. As evidence I'll point out the profile in the Dugout Splinters for Kyle Davies that I wrote yesterday:

Friday: RHP Kyle Davies (8-7, 4.21 ERA)

• 2008: 107 IP, 117 H, 10 HR, 41 BB, 63 K
• AAA: 6-2, 2.03 ERA, 57.2 IP, 47 H, 38 K
• Davies came to the Royals last year at the trade deadline, acquired from the Braves for Octavio Dotel.
• It wasn’t just his 6.66 ERA last year that made Royals fans think he might be Satan. He struggled with his control mightily, throwing seven wild pitches and hitting 3 batters in just 50 IP.
• He’s been much better this year, both at AAA and in the majors. His control has improved, and the most important benefit of that is that balls are staying in the park. He gave up exactly as many home runs last year, but it was in less than half the innings.

When Kyle Davies strikes out eight in six innings while walking just two, there are supernatural powers at work. And I watched the game at an increasingly empty watering hole, that became more and more apparent.


But there was some cheering, mostly due to the ESPN ticker. When the blinking bright little white square turned to a '9' behind 'CLE', it was the most raucous and communal moment of the night.


The number we didn't see was '3', but that was the real number we were cheering, because that's the Twins magic number following the White Sox loss to Cleveland. We'll hope our boys can wittle it down themselves tomorrow.


Hopefully we'll have something better than a blinking bright little white square to cheer.

Speed Kills

In baseball, "speed" doesn't translate well. Speed doesn't beget speed, or at least not speed in terms of scoring runs quickly. It's a misnomer.

Much like "piranha" has become a misnomer. In fact, it has become a dirty word in Twins Territory, mostly because it had been so revered in 2006. Its meaning transformed from "guys whose speed can impact a game" to "overhyped guys without any power that Gardy falls in love with". And that's why you won't hear Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Alexi Casilla referred to as "piranhas" today.

But last night we saw exactly what piranhas are supposed to be. A group that swarms around you in a feeding frenzy. A group that turns ground balls down the line or in the gap into three bases, whether the runner start at first or home. A group that smells blood and goes 9 for 14 with three triples and two doubles.

But mostly it's a group or players where you feel like somehow, someway, they're going to find a way to turn a break into a run. Bobby Jenks talked last night about how one of the problems you face as a closer is that you can't pitch around these guys. And Ozzie Guillen talked about how you must pitch to them, because you can't walk them and put that speed on base. And they're right.

But these guys make it even tougher by managing the strike zone. Anything below a 2.0 K/BB is above average. Here are our guys:

Nick Punto - 1.96
Alexi Casilla - 1.39
Denard Span - 1.27
Carlos Gomez - 5.56

OK, Gomez is still dismal in that regard. I'm on board. You're talking to the guy who suggested demoting him just a month ago. And I still don't see where he plays on this team next year. But I also don't know how you don't play him next year.

And as for Casilla and Span, I don't know how you don't PAY them next year. The Twins are fortunate enough to find themselves with a couple of young players with promising futures, very little service time, and tangible results. They'll also likely have somewhere between $25 million and $35 million worth of payroll room for things like signing bonuses. It sure seems like a pretty good match.

But that's something to worry about in the offseason and today the offseason seems pleasantly distant. A team that can chip away a division rival's five run lead in less than six innings sounds like a team that can score a run or two in the playoffs when it really needs to.

And that's why speed is a misunderstood. It doesn't translate to big, fast-scoring innings. It translates to certainty. Or, if you rather, to muscling a single run across through sheer force of will. That happened seven times tonight in five different innings.

And little by little, like piranhas, it killed.

Ozzie and the Press
"I will. I'll take two sleeping pills and a glass of vodka and to go to sleep tonight. I'll need it tonight."
- Ozzie Guillen

OK, that's probably not the exact quote, but I'm a blogger, and my TIVO happened to crap out, so sue me. Get, and enjoy, the exact quote from someone who cares about the details.

And while you're at it, you might want to pity those poor beat writers a little too. Can you imagine needing to write up a game story or column after that game? On a deadline? It's been a couple of hours and I'm still trying to figure out what I just saw. fortunately, I can spit out just about anything. Journalists, on the other hand would almost certainly not be able to write up the next blurb.

Mike....Really?
This game wasn't decided by poor umpiring, but it's pretty clear that it was just dumb luck that it wasn't. As I watched home plate Mike Reilly look like he was guessing on about every fifth pitch, I assumed he was a rookie umpire in a very big game, and was simly over his head.

Turns out, the only way I could've been more wrong is if I was actually Mike Reilly trying decipher a borderline pitche. Reilly has been an umpire for 31 years, and was either really gifted or really connected in the 70s because he rocketed through the minors to the majors in just five years. Plus, he sounds like a hell of a guy. He lives in the town he grew up in. Has four kids. He's even on the Board of Directors for Big Brothers/Big Sisters.

Of course, none of that made a smidgen of difference last night as he turned each pitch into a guessing game for the batter. I don't know if he had a bad night, or if he's just going through a rough patch, or if he's losing it after 31 years on the job. But I do know that someone besides the guys yelling from the two dugouts should call that performance what it was: embarassing. It truly marred an otherwise amazing game.

Freezing Up
Punto, Gomez, Span and Casilla got on base 12 times last night. AJ Pierzynski has thrown out just 21 out of 112 stolen base atempts. And the Twins not only had no stolen bases, they didn't have any official stolen base attempts.

Now, part of that is becaue the Twins just plain swing the bats. And it's not like they didn't try to be aggressive. There were multiple stolen base attempts on foul balls, and even a suicide squeeze play that could've scored the winning run in the eighth inning.

But it didn't happen, and it didn't happen for a reason. The Twins batters are willing to watch a couple of strikes, but the runners on base aren't willing to risk a stolen base on the first or couple pitches. Opposing teams have learned this, and they're throwing a lot of early strikes when, say, Gomez is on first base. Why not? Span is taking them, because that's what he should do. Gomez is sticking around first, because he's studying the pitcher. Why not get ahead in the count and force Span to foul off pitches later, when Gomez is more likely to run?

And it's driving me crazy, especially in the late innings of close games. Can we do something about this please? We're not going to learn anything life-altering by watching Jenks throw two pitches to the plate. How about we take off the skirt, get on our horse, and gallop to second base on the first pitch occasionally?

(Deep cleansing breath)

Ok, that' probably more than enough for tonight. But it's likely not enough for the weekend. The magic number is still four, with just three games to play. That will likely be hard to wittle down without sweeping the Royals, including a tough game on Saturday where the Glen Perkins faces Gil Meche. Feel free to stop by on the weekend. One way or the other, I'll likely be covering it.

Flip-flopping a Flopped Bullpen

So. I'm a wreck.


A happy, elated, jaunty wreck, but a wreck nonetheless. I'd forgotten how exhausting fall baseball can be. This decade the Twins have usually clinched relatively early and exited the playoffs even earlier. To be frank, I'm not sure I'm built for this. Which isn't to say I'm ready for it to end.


But the Twins have essentially begun the playoffs a week early, and they've begun them with a string of must-win games. Last night's was a classic playoff game, complete with a packed dome, stingy runs, and a self-adminstered angioplasty.


But I wouldn't have it any other way, and not just because it moved the Twins within a half game of first place. This is the kind of game the Twins need to win in the playoffs, and tonight they unveiled the new upside-down bullpen hierarchy that they hope is going to get them there:


9th - Joe Nathan
8th - Jose Mijares
7th - Boof Bonser
6th - Craig Breslow


Thank god. This is the problem that has plagued the Twins for the second half of this year, and a problem that both the GM and the manager seemed reluctant to attack. It took longer to solve it that it should have, but it looks like there is a solution, or at least there was tonight.


Nick Blackburn did well enough for five innings, and he'll get the "W", but the final four innings in a one run game are a lot more important than the first five. It appears that White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen agreed, letting starter Mark Buehrle throw 121 pitches to get him through the late innings. That's probably fine, but it's worth noting that Buehrle is the pitcher that will need to be used on Monday if the White Sox must play that last game against the Tigers.


(And while we're at it, Javier Vazquez is the pitcher that lines up for the White Sox last game on Sunday versus the Indians. Both now look like they could be critical games, and Ozzie has led frontal attacks on Vazquez's confidence and Buehrle's stamina the last two games. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out on the south side.)


Tonight's White Sox pitcher is Gavin Floyd, not John Danks as I said yesterday. Floyd is right-handed, known as a bit of a space-case, and he's been scary good against the Twins this year - better than Buehrle and better than Vazquez. He'll be facing Kevin Slowey who pitched a shutout against the Sox the last time he faced them in the Metrodome.


But the good news today is that it doesn't look like he's going to need to. With the new flip-flopped bullpen, a one-run lead is sustainable again.


Now, if only my systolic blood pressure was....



Speed Round Thoughts
- The magic number is six. I haven't seen the magic number guy at the dome yet. Is he there yet this year? Will he show up for tomorrow's game just so he can unveil it if they win?


- Manager Ron Gardenhire started LH-hitting Jason Kubel at DH over RH-hitting Michael Cuddyer because left-handers have hit .309 against Buehrle this year, and right-handers have hit just .267. La Velle E Neal had a nice tidbit in his blog about talking to Corey Koskie about the same thing and having Koskie confirm that Buehrle's cutter can be hit very hard by lefties when he misses his spot.


It's nice to see the coaching staff pay attention to this sort of thing. And it's even more encouraging to see them act on it. That said....


Over the last three years (2005-2007) left-handers and right-handers have hit Buehrle almost exactly the same statistically. But, he's faced almost four times as many right-handed hitters. Generally, the ratio is closer to 2:1, so when you see a ratio that high, it means that opposing managers are only letting the very best left-handed hitters face Buehrle.


So those equal stats were put up by very different groups of players - elite left-handed batters hit Buehrle about as well as the whole spectrum of right-handed hitters. Which means he's been quite a bit better against left-handed batters for his career. Maybe that changed a little bit this year, but don't take it as gospel that Buehrle can be hit by left-handed bats.


And, by the way, Kubel went hitless, though he did draw a walk. And the only Twins players to have multiple hits last night were Delmon Young and Brendan Harris. They both bat right-handed.

- Oh, and I did another podcast with Seth yesterday, this one with Nick Nelson from Nick and Nick's and Howard Sinker from A Fan's View. You can find the podcase (and subscribe) here.

If Bruce Dickinson Wants More Kubel, We Should Probably Get Him More Kubel

So, how long have we waited for last night?

Several years, at least. In 2006, when Jason Kubel kick-started the Twins hot streak with an extra-inning grand slam against the Red Sox, we hoped he was all the way back. But it was longer than that, because you don't start talking about "being all the way back" unless you are already waiting for a guy to return to form.

I suppose we could go back to the injury, which was way back in the fall of 2004 for chrissakes. That was so long ago that Luis Rivas was ending his tenure at second base. But you can even stretch it back a bit further that year, to when Kubel was beating the living snot out of pitchers in AA and AAA, posting a 1000+ OPS between the two leagues.

Since then we've watched him rehab physically for two years, and rehab mentally for another two. And it's been painful for us, too. We've watched a guy whose confidence was AWOL for most of last year, such that one could legitimately question whether he needed to revisit the minors.

But tonight the wait was worth...no, that's not right. One night doesn't make up for four years of purgatory. Purgatory sucks. It's a place short of heaven, but within sight of it. And you're weighed down with stones until you learn to humble your pride.

He should have regained some of that pride last night. He faced a pitcher who has dominated him (2 hits in 21 AB) in the past. He was playing in the biggest game of the season. And he batted behind the top of the order which collectively went just 2 for 17. And yet he carried the team to an important victory, turning a one-run deficit into a one-run lead and then padding it later. If he keeps that kind of performance up, we're all going to be walking around in gold-plated diapers.

Manager Ron Gardenhire defended Kubel's place in the lineup before the game, and wasn't above gloating a bit after the game about his decision. He pointed out that he had watched all 21 of those previous at-bats against Vazquez and that Kubel had several quality at-bats in that bunch. And then he pointed out that Kubel now sits with 20 home runs. Unsaid was that Kubel also has 78 RBI, which is just one short of Joe Mauer for second place on the team.

But Gardenhire will have a tougher decision tonight. Left-handed pitcher Mark Buehrle will be facing the Twins, and while Kubel has improved versus lefties, he's still hitting just .234 against them with no power to speak of.

Well, OK, maybe it isn't such a tough decision. Kubel, after his night of glory, will likely spend some time on the bench tomorrow, hoping that the White Sox are eventually forced to bring in a right-handed reliever. Or maybe he'll just wait there until Thursday, when the Twins face right-handed John Danks. And he'll likely wait there patiently.

After all, he waited four years for last night. We all did. What's 48 more hours?

Other Stuff
Let's throw down as many more thoughts as I can in fifteen minutes....

- Justin Morneau broke the record for most doubles in a season by a Twin passing...Marty Cordova? Seriously? Can someone explain to me how a guy with plantar fasciatis for his ENTIRE TWINS CAREER beat out Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Kirby Pucket and Chuck Knoblauch for doubles in a season? Those big casts/boots are heavy. And don't try to argue with me about the plantar fasciatis. I was there. He had it every game for his ENTIRE TWINS CAREER.

- If Gardy really wants to puff his chest a bit, he should point out that he chose Nick Punto, of all people, to bunt on a suicide squeeze. That might not sound strange until you remember that Punto, in the midst of his journey through Dante's seven circles last year, couldn't bunt to save his life. And now Gardenhire has him laying down a bunt with Delmon Young running full steam towards the plate? Talk about playing a hunch.

Of course, not only did Punto get the bunt down, but he may have placed the most perfect bunt of all time. I'm serious. Consider: not only did it get the run in, but he singled even though the middle infielders were playing in to try and cut down the run at the plate. How does that even happen?

- Let's not forget Delmon Young and his three hits. Early on he was driving the ball to the opposite field, and then he turned on one and drove it deep to the left field bleachers. He also made a couple of plays in left field, despite still being limited by his sprained ankle. He was also interviewed following the game and left two impressions:

1) he was absolutely tickled to be getting the attention and
2) he is not going to fall for the "banana in the tailpipe" trick.

He's hitting .293 now. He isn't the player that we hope he will be yet, but he's probably not the player he hopes he will be yet, either. But he looks like he is heating up at exactly the right time.

- Finally, as Scott Baker finished the seventh inning with 100 pitches, I wondered who would pitch out of the bullpen. I assumed it would not be Jesse Crain, Jose Reyes or Matt Guerrier, because Gardenhire would still view them as someone to save for a closer game. I guessed Bobby Korecky would get the call.

I was somewhat relieved to see that it was Crain and Guerrier that got the work, because I'm almost sure that this means that we'll see Jose Mijares in the next close eighth inning. And I'm encouraged by the results, too. Crain did well and hopefully regained some confidence. Guerrier gave up another very long home run and will hopefully come nowhere near a close game for a bit longer. He could use the rest. And, frankly, so could my artery walls.

That's it for tonight. Whatever each of you did to ensure a Twins victory, make sure you do it tonight too. I'll be dumping water on my head as I try to sell GameDay's prior to the game. At 1.5 games out and facing Buehrle, we can't be too careful.

Ozzie's Gambit

By Kyle Eliason

The following will appear in GameDay's Dugout Splinter this series.

Manager Ozzie Guillen shuffled the entire White Sox rotation in preparation for this, the biggest series of the season for both clubs. Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd all made their previous starts on just three days rest.

Chicago won just one of those three games despite using their three best starters, which will raise questions about Guillen’s decision should the White Sox falter in Minnesota. First, Vazquez got rocked by the Yankees, allowing seven runs and failing to get out of the fourth inning in last Thursday’s 9-2 loss. He struck out and walked four. Then would come Buehrle’s turn, and the only win that resulted from the first stage of Ozzie’s gambit. The southpaw allowed three runs in six innings of work last Friday, all coming in the bottom of the fourth from Royals’ third baseman Mark Teahen’s homerun. Floyd would then follow on Saturday, losing to the Royals as a result of allowing three homers, five runs and eight hits in six-and-a-third.

There is good news in that the Sox failed to widen their lead as much as the might have. The bad news is that their three best pitchers are all rested and ready for the Twins. Vazquez threw just 88 pitches last Thursday, Buehrle threw just 93 on Friday and Floyd just 93 on Saturday.

The Vazquez-Baker match up is an interesting opener to the series, as neither pitcher has lost to the other team this season, but neither has pitched particularly well, either. Vazquez is 2-0 with a 5.11 ERA against the Twins this season and Baker is 1-0 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts against the Sox.

The Buehrle-Blackburn match up is worrisome. The former looked good on just three days rest in his last start, the latter looked worn down by the long season despite pitching on regular rest and failed to make it out of the second inning in his last trip to the mound. Here’s hoping the extra rest resulting from getting bounced early helps Blackburn find what he needs to outduel a notorious Twins killer.

The Flyod-Slowey match up is perhaps the most interesting. The Twins do not have Floyd figured out yet, and he’s posted a 1.86 ERA in three starts against Minnesota. And Slowey threw a complete game shutout in his only start against the White Sox this season.

The White Sox’ offense is built around power. They lead the majors in homeruns and enter the series having outhomered Minnesota a whopping 223 to 108. Normally that would translate into one of the top offenses in baseball, but Chicago finds themselves in the second tier due to an average on-base percentage and middling batting average. And they also find themselves without their best hitter. Left fielder Carlos Quentin, who leads the club in runs (96), homeruns (36), runs batted in (100), on-base percentage (.394) and slugging percentage (.571), has been out since September 2nd with a wrist injury. His cast has come off and he’s working on strengthening his wrist, but he is unlikely to return before the postseason, if the White Sox are able to make it that far.

To compensate for the loss of Quentin, Guillen has moved the versatile Nick Swisher, who can man both first base and all three outfield slots, to left field full-time. The aged body of Ken Griffey Jr. patrols centerfield, and Jermaine Dye is handling right. Swisher, who was acquired from Oakland via trade before the season began, is finishing up a horrible season. Coming off two seasons in which he posted an OPS higher than .830, Swisher has seen that decline to a mark of .746, which doesn’t hack it at a corner position.

Prior to Quentin’s injury, Guillen had the option of mixing and matching the likes of Swisher (.746 OPS), Griffey (.761 OPS) and Dewayne Wise (a fluke .860 OPS in 104 at bats) in center, and Swisher and Paul Konerko (.773 OPS) at first base. That option is now gone. It’s too bad the Twins have three righties scheduled to pitch, as both Wise and Griffey bat left-handed and struggle with southpaws and Swisher is no longer a platoon option.

Second baseman Alexi Ramirez had been another right-handed option for Guillen’s outfield, but Joe Crede’s back has him sidelined, which meant shifting Juan Uribe to third base full time and planting Ramirez at second. Josh Fields is kind of an option at third, but he’s be terrible in very limited playing time at the Major League level this season, and now officially looks like a first round bust. Enter the likes of Chris Getz as reserve second baseman and Guillen is announcing to the media that his infield depth is now, “paper thin.”

The White Sox have not been the same club since Quentin went down. Dye, designated hitter Jim Thome and the aforementioned Ramirez are all still solid hitters relative to their position, but no one has really stepped up to replace the loss of their MVP candidate. Their rotation has been rested and reordered in anticipation of this series. Their manager has been quick to lay into his players for failing to pull away from a Twins club that hasn’t done much to try and steal the division. Their bullpen, like the Twins’, has its holes. As Tuesday’s first pitch draws near, it is striking just how similar these two teams look. Both have two or three dangerous hitters, solid but not dominant starters, and have been playing .500 or worse baseball for the past two weeks.

The beauty of late-season baseball is that something as trivial as the bench players available to two American League clubs might shape the outcome of the Central Division and possibly the playoffs. Here’s hoping our home town nine can get it done this week.

Praising Hope, Imbalance, and Swinging for the Fences

Keeping Hope Alive

It's natural to think about a sweep, and that would be great, but the Twins don't need to sweep the White Sox to keep their hopes alive. Two our of three will do just fine.

Taking two out of three would mean the Twins trail the White Sox by 1.5 games with three left to play, but the Twins last three games will be versus the Royals, against whom the Twins are 11-4 this year. Meanwhile, the White Sox will need to play an Indians team that is 31-17 since August 1st. If the Twins gain a game during that series, the White Sox will need to play and beat the Tigers next Monday to win the division. If they lose that game, they'll be playing the Twins for the division title late next week.

Don't get me wrong - a sweep would be absolutely fabulous, but there is still plenty of hope left so long as the Twins win the series.

Division Results

Turns out that 72 games is a big chunk of the season. A big, and very important, chunk.

That's how many games each team in the AL Central plays against its own division, and again this year it is determining whose final weeks are relevent. The Twins are 21-15 against Detroit and Cleveland this year, and the White Sox are even better at 21-11 with several games left. Here are the overall results of each of the division teams against each other:

Chicago 41-24

Minnesota 39-27

Cleveland 34-35

Detroit 27-41

Kansas City 26-40

Not only does the order reflect the actual overall standings, but it even reflects the magnitude of difference between them. Chicago is about two games better than the Twins, who are about five games over Cleveland, who is about seven games over Detroit, who is just a gave over the Royals. It's the same for actual standings. It's uncanny.

The unbalanced schedule is despised by many for what is perceived to be an unfair impact on races. But this year in the AL Central, the division looks like like it was decided by how the teams played against each other, not just against common opponents. And I can't think of a better or more satisfying way to decide a division.

Watching Morneau and Mauer

Even if things do go south, it should be fun to watch Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer this week. I'll admit, I haven't paid much attention to individual batting races since I was about ten years old, but for some reason this year's has me entranced.

First, there is Morneau's pursuit of the RBI title. He's in a three way race with Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera, who are behind him by 4 and 3 RBI respectively. it interests me because a couple of months ago it looked like Hamilton would run away with this award, and because of it's impact on the MVP voting. If the Twins last until the last weekend, and Morneau wins the RBI title, I think he'll end up with that second MVP award, and we'll all get to bask in the righteous indignation directed his way by people who don't like how it's awarded. Delicious.

But that interest pales in comparison to the Batting Average championship that Mauer is chasing. Mauer is also in a 3 way race, but he separated himself this weekend a bit. He's hitting .330, while Dustin Pedroia is at .324 and Magglio Ordonez is at .323. It holds more interest for purely sentimental reasons, because I grew up watching Rod Carew and he was in the mix every year. Batting championships remind me of listening to Herb, chewing cardboardish bubble gum and using my calculator to figure out batting averages. It reminds me of youth.

And, finally, I'm carefully watching another race for Mauer too. Mauer is on the cusp of hitting double-digit homeruns this year, stuck at nine. In a column at the beginning of the year I predicted that Mauer would start to show more power this year, and Kyle Eliason quickly jumped all over me based on Mauer's ground ball percentage. I had him put his money where his EQA is, so we have some sort of eating/drinking bet on Mauer's HR total, with 10 being a push.

And if I had to choose between the quiet satisfaction of a misty memory inspired batting championship and gloating over a few free pints and dinner at the Local, which one would I choose?

Swing away, Joe. Swing for the fences.

Well. THAT didn't work too well.

The bad news? Our starting pitching is cooked. Oh, and my whole magic number idea doesn't seem to be working any miracles. Whoulda thunk?

The good news? Maxwell's is back, and I have a pack of friends on the patio soaking up a gorgeous indian summer night. (And the White Sox are currently tied with KC.). If the magic number budges, I'll post again, but right now I think I'm going to take my queue from Blackburn and leave this game prematurely.

The Magic Number

So I'm watching the bottom of the eighth, the Twins trail 8-6 and I'm anticipating the fifth straight loss for the Twins. On my "to do" list for the day is to prepare some things in the unlikely event of a Twins postseason appearance. So I send out an email and end it with....

Maybe talking about this will change the team's luck.

Twins win, 11-6.

Is it that easy? Frankly, I've been trying just about everything else - different shirts, different hats, watching, not watching, watching on different TVs, watching while wearing hats - even wearing hats but not while I'm watching. I've been a frantic little mouse banging my head on the walls of this Skinnerian maze in a desperate attempt for a little cheese.

Could it be that all I really needed was a little positivity?

Allright - this geek is game. Let's start with the most positive thing I can think of AND the one thing this pennant race has been missing - The Magic Number. We haven't had one because the Twins haven't nudged their way into first place, and usually one doesn't figure out The Magic Number until one is in first place. But it's not like one CAN'T figure out The Magic Number until one is in first place.

To figure out The Magic Number, you just figure out the maximum number of wins your closest competitor can get, and then figure out how many more games you would need to win to surpass it. In this case:

1) The White Sox have 84 wins with 10 games left to play, so they could end the season with 94 wins.

2) The Twins have 83 wins, so they would need to win 12 games.

3) The fact that the Twins only have nine games left is irrelevant - The Magic Number is still 12.

Let's start treating this like a pennant race and see what happens. The Magic Number is going up at the top of this post, and if it moves, I'll be updating it. How's that for optimism?

And since pennant races are meant to be watched with friends and strangers, tomorrow night I'm going to try and make it to the newly renovated Maxwell's to get my fall classic groove on. Hope to see you there. Look for a guy who is a Twins fan. And a geek. But he's going to be working like hell to keep it from being kinda sad. Really.

Flat Lining

In a baseball season full of suprises, maybe the biggest one is how little we all seem to care about a pennant race.




Frankly, I didn't think it could be this way. I waited almost a decade for a pennant race, and entering this season I feared I might be at the beginning of another long wait. Instead I was treated to players blossoming before my eyes and not one - but two! - MVP worthy seasons from the middle of the order. The excitement should only have built as summer became fall.



Instead, this site is flat lining. My attention is also flat lining. So is the team. And attendance. And TV ratings. And community interest. And it's all happening at exactly the time that it shouldn't - in a pennant race in September with a young and likeable team.



So why haven't I been blogging? Because I haven't been watching. Judging by the numbers, a lot of people aren't. And why, with the Twins still in contention, haven't I watched more than a handful of Twins games in a month? Because it's absolutely painful, that's why. And it's even more painful because all of this pain is so damn unnecesessary.



It's that last point - the "so damn unnecessary" - which makes it especially hard for the hardcore fans to watch this team right now. We're a forgiving lot. We can understand a team, especially a young team, that can't keep their head above water in the fall. Or a team that is leveled by injuries. But watching the Twins bullpen overshadow any success this team could have is a damn hard thing for a hardcore fan to accept, because a hardcore fan knows the back story.



Namely, that the Twins have had months and months to fix this problem and the general manager and manager have seemingly conspired to do as little as possible. No. "Conspired" isn't the right word. That implies that the two of them worked together to direct this little cruise over the river Styx. To create a mildewing mess like this usually requires working at odds with each other.



I understand how ridiculous this next sentence is going to be, but that's what makes it so nauseating. If Bill Smith was intentionally and covertly trying to sabotage this team's playoff chances, I'm not sure what more he could have done since May 29th. That's the day the Twins claimed Craig Breslow off waivers.



For the next three months, the Twins only addition to the bullpen was failed starter Boof Bonser, who posted an 8.74 ERA in his first two months there. The other moves were subractions - dumping Juan Rincon and demoting Brian Bass. And, not too shockingly, over the next three months, the bullpen got gassed, and starting at the end of July, they really struggled.



And yet, nothing was done, either externally or internally. No trades were completed before the deadline, even though several relievers were traded prior to it. No waiver pickups afterwards. There were no promotions from AAA Rochester, though several candidates looked viable (like Bobby Korecky and Ricky Barret). And not only did they not call-up several high-ceiling arms from the middle levels of the minors (Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama), they didn't even promote them to slightly higher minor league levels.



That inactivity changed a little at the end of August when Eddie Guardado was acquired, but in retrospect, all that really did was make it more difficult to call up one of the promising minor leaguers. Not that it had to be any more difficult. When rosters were finally expanded, the only bullpen arms that were added were Korecky, Philip Humber and Jose Mijares. The rest of them were passed over because the Twins didn't think they would have enough opportunities for them.



Blink. Blink.



Let's unpack that logic a little. In August, the Twins lost twelve games, and in eight of them, a member of the bullpen was the losing pitcher. Almost across the board, there hadn't been a single reliable pitcher beyond Joe Nathan for most of the season. In particular, the guys who had been used as setup men - Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Jose Reyes - had really fallen apart since the end of July. And yet the Twins were worried about not having opportunities for fire-throwing minor leaguers? Really? Just what opportunities were going to be in short supply? I mean, other than congratulatory post-game handshakes? Because it wasn't going to be relief opportunities.



Or was it? Because this is where our story shifts to the only person who could make Smith's festering stasis look downright visionary - manager Ron Gardenhire. It turns out that Smith was right. There were no opportunities for these guys because Gardenhire continued to trot out the same guys who have failed nearly every test they'd been given over the last month.



He also sat on his most promising set-up candidate for almost two weeks. That would be Mijares, who finally made his first appearance on the 13th and has sinced been used four times in five days. In those four appearance, Mijares has given up just two hits in 3.2 innings and has yet to walk a batter. He'll end up with the loss for last night's game partly because of Buster Keaton inspired defense. But we also might wonder why he was pulled from a tie game with a runner on third and two outs for Guerrier - who has now given up eight hits and four walks in his last 1.1 IP.



Reread those numbers at the end of that last sentence. Tally it up. Now guess what happened.



So let's review. The Twins have known since early May (when Pat Neshek was injured) that their bullpen was going to struggle, but the only moves they made were to pick up two left-handed setup guys, one in May and the other in August. Otherwise, they sat in a state of suspended disbelief, while claiming that they didn't dare risk losing any of their valuable bullpen arms.



(Of course, when they needed the roster spot for a hitter, they convinced one of those Valuable Bullpen Arms that he wasn't so valuable, so he accepted a demotion rather than try free agency. Then, three weeks later, they decided that the Valuable Bullpen Arm wasn't even worth calling up for September. And then, a week later, they gave the Valuable Bullpen Arm to the Orioles for a minor league player to be named later. So maybe the whole "Valuable Bullpen Arm" thing might have been a stretch.)



When the Twins finally had oodles of roster space, they call up just three guys, and only two of them are perceived as having any kind of future as a set-up reliever. And then the manager refused to use them anyway, because he said he can't trust them with a six run lead. Instead he trusted the guys whose WHIP has spiked like an introductory ARM rate. Of course, he might have been more comfortable if they tried out some of these guys in July or June instead of sitting on their VBAs.



If Smith and Gardenhire are both truly trying to pull this team over the finish line (and it's not totally apparent they both are) they may want to try pulling in the same direction. Otherwise you just get a tug of war, and a lot of effort that results in almost no movement.



Oh, and a rope that looks an awful lot like a flat line.

Spoiled, Obsessed and Fuming

Spoiled, obsessed and fuming is no way to go through life. Or at least not through a baseball season.

Talking about the Eddie Guardado deal to several friends, I remarked how it crystalized just how pathetic the Twins bullpen situation really has been. The Twins picked up Guardado, who is really nothing more than an average reliever at this point in his career, and he's instantly the second best guy on the staff. And maybe the only other guy in which the fans might have some confidence.

If that doesn't clarify exactly how bad the bullpen has been, nothing does, right? We had Nathan and five to seven guys who were - at best - below average. So why the hell did it take so long to address this? What little delusional hole does Twins management find themselves in.

It was a great point - had it not been completely wrong.

On two Sundays this month, I have literally fumed for hours for at the Twins inability to upgrade their bullpen. Some would say that's a sign that I don't have a life, and I readily concede that. But, to be fair, in both cases I was returning from a road trip and precious little else to obsess about.

But the Twins bullpen pitchers aren't bad across the board. BaseballProspectus.com has a slick little statistic it tracks for relievers called Average Run Prevented(ARP). It supposedly measures how many runs a reliever prevents versus your average pitcher. (How it does this is kind of neat, and for you other geeks, I'll cover it at the end of the story). So if you have a positive factor, you're an above average reliever. Negative? You're below average. Going into yesterday's tilt, here's how the members of the Twins bullpen ranked:

Joe Nathan +20.8
Craig Breslow +9.2
Bobby Korecky +5.7
Jesse Crain +5.4
Matt Guerrier +3.0
Dennis Reyes +2.7
Pat Neshek -0.9
Brian Bass -4.3
Boof Bonser -4.5
Juan Rincon -13.0

The existing members of the bullpen, with the exception of Boof, are all above-average relievers this year. And if you're wondering, Guardado's ARP for the year is 8.6, which means he's not quite the second most effective pitcher on the staff, or even the best left-hander. Breslow beats him out.

This doesn't mean that Bill Smith is off the hook. I can still list an even dozen realistic things the Twins could have done to help out their bullpen this year, and none of them were done. In fact, between 5/29 (when the Twins claimed Breslow) and this week - or for almost three months - the only enhancement the Twins made to the bullpen was to subtract members from it.

But it does mean that I'm probably overreacting, which is apt to happen during a pennant race. Perhaps the bullpens in previous years might very well have spoiled us. Or perhaps the bullpen is better this year than I've generally given them credit.

Whatever. I'm still not sure I totally believe it. But it will help me make it through the season.

------------------------------------

Ok, for the fellow geeks, here's how ARP works...

You start with a list of the average number of runs that score in a given situation, based on historical MLB data. For instance, a reliever comes into a game with runners on the corners and one out. The average number of runs that score in that situation is approximately 1.14 runs.

• If he escapes that inning without letting any runs score, he gets 1.14 ARP, because that's the average number of runs he prevented.
• If he escapes that inning letting just one run score, he gets 0.14 ARP, for the same reason.
• If two runs score that inning, he gets -0.86 ARP, because he let in more runs than average.
• Finally, if he gets one out (no runs score) and is then replaced by another pitcher, the average number of runs that score in the new situation (runners on corners, two outs) is approximately .46 runs. So he gets credit for the change of 0.68 ARP (because 1.14-.46=.68).

It's a valuable stat because it gets rid of all the inherited baserunner crap that relievers usually need to deal with. But it's important to note that it's value is that it tells you what has happened, and isn't terribly valuable as a predictive stat.